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山那边的英英子
2022-11-29
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山那边的英英子
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Inc.(U)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d138e927c34bc989fcdee0fdc1fa4e4","width":"1125","height":"2472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960115417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987763659,"gmtCreate":1667998139271,"gmtModify":1676537996285,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/953d439171a26598ee1bb2bc69705234","width":"1125","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987763659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987268290,"gmtCreate":1667921749610,"gmtModify":1676537985233,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u","listText":"u","text":"u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987268290","repostId":"9987263344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9987263344,"gmtCreate":1667921274989,"gmtModify":1676537985122,"author":{"id":"3479274799416327","authorId":"3479274799416327","name":"marketpre","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdd403049856caa030d5acaf3e72506","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479274799416327","authorIdStr":"3479274799416327"},"themes":[],"title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy for This Important Reason","htmlText":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","listText":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","text":"Investing in cash-rich companies is a smart strategy during bear markets.Microsoft (MSFT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are two tech firms that have been around for decades and successfully navigated several downturns. The important reason these companies keep going is their combination of industry leadership and financial strength.With the stocks of Microsoft and TI down 34% and 16%, respectively, year to date, the market dip presents an excellent opportunity to invest in these leaders at attractive valuations. Let's look at where Microsoft and TI are investing to drive long-term growth.Microsoft is on offenseDominant Microsoft has seen its share price fall 34% year to date. The software giant reported stable growth in its latest earnings report. Revenue w","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6dd0b6e6e33d48273f12b4b3a351059","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987263344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987268927,"gmtCreate":1667921666969,"gmtModify":1676537985199,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a><v-v 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Disney(DIS)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2ce4247c93470709977f69b3c2c5354","width":"1125","height":"2580"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985366707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982137956,"gmtCreate":1667110918376,"gmtModify":1676537862924,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982137956","repostId":"1148576482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576482","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667099454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148576482?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-30 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576482","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear si","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.</li><li><b>Nvidia</b>(<b>NVDA</b>): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.</li><li><b>Adobe</b>(<b>ADBE</b>): Its income-statement performance is impressive.</li><li><b>Intel</b>(<b>INTC</b>): Shares look compelling at this deeply discounted price.</li><li><b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b>(<b>TSM</b>): It’s a profit-generating machine.</li><li><b>Applied Materials</b>(<b>AMAT</b>): Its returns on equity and assets are among the best in the chip industry.</li><li><b>Lam Research</b>(<b>LRCX</b>): Its ROE and ROA are even better than those of Applied Materials.</li><li><b>NXP Semiconductors</b>(<b>NXPI</b>): It’s perhaps the riskiest of the bunch but may offer greater rewards.</li></ul><p>Tech stocks have suffered disproportionately in the current bear market, as they tend to do in every bear market. But the bullish long-term bias of the market tells us that stocks will almost certainly resume their uptrend. When they do, nearly all tech stocks should bounce to some extent, but the best tech stocks could soar.</p><p>Historically, the broader market tends to perform well during the November-to-April timespan. Of course, this is no guarantee for success. Still, it adds a powerful backdrop for those looking to put capital to work in one of the more speculative sectors of the market.</p><p>In searching for the best tech stocks to buy, we’re sticking with financial data. Leveraging the analytical tools ofGuruFocus.com, the below equities all feature fundamentally low risk and discounted prices.</p><p>Here are the best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Nvidia (NVDA)</b></p><p>A multinational technology firm, <b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>) primarily garnered attention through its specialty in graphics processing units. However, the company also made significant investments in deep learning and protocols involving artificial intelligence. Currently, the company commands a market capitalization of $345 billion. On a year-to-date basis, NVDA is down 53%.</p><p>Despite the steep losses, contrarian investors should consider gradually picking up shares.<i>GuruFocus</i> utilizes proprietary calculations to determine that NVDA stock is significantly undervalued. Based on more traditional metrics, Nvidia features excellent income-statement performance figures. For instance, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 31.3%. Its book growth rate during the aforementioned period hit 40.2%. Both stats rank at least near the 90th percentile for the industry. On the bottom line, Nvidia carries a net margin of 26%. This ranks above 87% of the competition.</p><p>To top it off, NVDA is tethered to a strong balance sheet. Mainly, its Altman Z-Score is a lofty 12 points, reflecting extremely low bankruptcy risk. Thus, NVDA easily ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b></p><p><b>Adobe</b>(NASDAQ:<b>ADBE</b>) is a software company that mainly aligns with creatives. Historically, it’s known for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia/video, motion pictures and print. Currently, Adobe carries a market cap of $151 billion after slipping 43% year to date.</p><p>Again, based on<i>GuruFocus’</i>proprietary metrics, Adobe rates as significantly undervalued. One traditional metric regarding valuation to consider is its price-earnings-growth ratio of 1.09. This rates favorably below the industry median of 1.4 times.</p><p>However, Adobe draws the most attention for its income statement-related performance. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate and free cash flow growth rate stand at 21.9% and 23.7%, respectively. Both figures rank conspicuously above sector averages.</p><p>On the bottom line, Adobe carries a net margin of 28%, well above the industry median of 1.9%. Throw in a stable balance sheet and you have another solid candidate for best tech stocks to buy in November.</p><p><b>Intel (INTC)</b></p><p>One of the powerhouses in the semiconductor industry, <b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b>INTC</b>) represents the world’s second-largest semiconductor chip manufacturer by revenue. Per its corporate profile, it’s also one of the developers of the x86 series of instruction sets, the instruction sets found in most personal computers. Presently, INTC commands a market cap of $119 billion and is down 44% for the year.</p><p>Despite sharp losses, INTC is among the best tech stocks to buy in November. Notably, INTC is significantly undervalued based on traditional metrics. Its forward P/E ratio is 10.1, below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its Shiller P/E ratio is 7.6, below the sector median of nearly 24.</p><p>On the income statement, Intel features an overall solid profile. Its three-year book growth rate stands at 12.4%, above 61.5% of the competition. For net margin, it hit 26%, better than 87% of its peers.</p><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)</b></p><p>A multinational semiconductor firm, <b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b> (NYSE:<b>TSM</b>) represents the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan’s largest companies, per its public profile. Presently, TSM commands a market cap of nearly $322 billion and is down 48% year to date.</p><p>Despite the severe erosion of equity value, TSM ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November for contrarians. Per<i>GuruFocus</i>, TSM is significantly undervalued. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.9 is below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its price-to-owner earnings ratio is 10.5, below the industry median of 16.1.</p><p>Primarily, though, TSM is all about its profitability machine. Gross, operating and net margins hit 55%, 44.7% and 40.6% respectively. Each of these metrics was well above sector median levels. As well, TSM enjoys solid growth figures, with its three-year revenue growth rate coming in at 15.5%. This ranks above 68.5% of the competition.</p><p><b>Applied Materials (AMAT)</b></p><p><b>Applied Materials</b>(NASDAQ:<b>AMAT</b>) represents the leader in materials engineering solutions used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display in the world, per its website. Currently, Applied Materials features a market cap of $77 billion, and the stock is down 43% year to date.</p><p>Per<i>GuruFocus</i>, AMAT stock is significantly undervalued. A notable standout in terms of traditional metrics is its PEG ratio of 0.56. This ranks favorably below the industry median of 0.75.</p><p>Primarily, though, Applied Materials will likely draw attention as one of the best tech stocks to buy in November because of its high-quality business. Specifically, the company’s return on equity and return on assets hit 55.5% and 26.1%, respectively. Both stats rank among the upper echelons of the semiconductor industry.</p><p>To top it off, AMAT features a stable balance sheet. Most prominently, its Altman Z-Score of 7.5 implies low bankruptcy risk.</p><p><b>Lam Research (LRCX)</b></p><p><b>Lam Research</b>(NASDAQ:<b>LRCX</b>) is an American supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and related services to the semiconductor industry. Currently, the company carries a market cap of slightly over $55 billion after falling 44% year to date. The stock’s average daily volume is approximately 1.9 million shares.</p><p>Fundamentally, the case for LRCX as one of the top tech stocks to buy in November is two-fold. First, Lam represents a high-quality business. Its return on equity is a blistering 75.8%. That’s above 99% of the semiconductor industry. As well, the company’s return on assets hit 28.6%, ranking above 97% of its peers.</p><p>Second, Lam enjoys outstanding sales-related performance. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate is 26.6%, better than 84% of the competition. As well, the company’s book growth rate during the same period is 11.9%, better than nearly 60% of its rivals.</p><p><b>NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)</b></p><p>Netherlands-based <b>NXP Semiconductors</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NXPI</b>) is a semiconductor designer and manufacturer. After falling 33% this year, it has a market cap of roughly $40 billion. Average trading volume is around 2.1 million shares a day.</p><p>Interestingly, the YTD performance makes NXP one of the better-performing semiconductor firms. However, that’s not the reason why it’s on this list of best tech stocks to buy in November. Fundamentally, the stock is significantly undervalued based on proprietary calculations. And its forward P/E ratio of 10.6 is below the industry median of 13.7 times.</p><p>The company enjoys substantive profitability margins, including an operating margin of 27%, which ranks above 84% of its peers. It’s also a high-quality business with a return on equity of nearly 36%.</p><p>About the one glaring risk factor is balance sheet stability. Its Altman Z-Score pings at 2.4, which is in a gray zone. However, the higher-risk profile could lead to potentially greater gains.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy in November\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-30 11:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.Adobe(ADBE): Its income-statement performance is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","TSM":"台积电","NVDA":"英伟达","AMAT":"应用材料","LRCX":"拉姆研究","INTC":"英特尔","NXPI":"恩智浦"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/best-tech-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576482","content_text":"These best tech stocks to buy all feature low risk and deep discounts.Nvidia(NVDA): Shares appear significantly undervalued following a steep sell-off.Adobe(ADBE): Its income-statement performance is impressive.Intel(INTC): Shares look compelling at this deeply discounted price.Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM): It’s a profit-generating machine.Applied Materials(AMAT): Its returns on equity and assets are among the best in the chip industry.Lam Research(LRCX): Its ROE and ROA are even better than those of Applied Materials.NXP Semiconductors(NXPI): It’s perhaps the riskiest of the bunch but may offer greater rewards.Tech stocks have suffered disproportionately in the current bear market, as they tend to do in every bear market. But the bullish long-term bias of the market tells us that stocks will almost certainly resume their uptrend. When they do, nearly all tech stocks should bounce to some extent, but the best tech stocks could soar.Historically, the broader market tends to perform well during the November-to-April timespan. Of course, this is no guarantee for success. Still, it adds a powerful backdrop for those looking to put capital to work in one of the more speculative sectors of the market.In searching for the best tech stocks to buy, we’re sticking with financial data. Leveraging the analytical tools ofGuruFocus.com, the below equities all feature fundamentally low risk and discounted prices.Here are the best tech stocks to buy in November.Nvidia (NVDA)A multinational technology firm, Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) primarily garnered attention through its specialty in graphics processing units. However, the company also made significant investments in deep learning and protocols involving artificial intelligence. Currently, the company commands a market capitalization of $345 billion. On a year-to-date basis, NVDA is down 53%.Despite the steep losses, contrarian investors should consider gradually picking up shares.GuruFocus utilizes proprietary calculations to determine that NVDA stock is significantly undervalued. Based on more traditional metrics, Nvidia features excellent income-statement performance figures. For instance, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 31.3%. Its book growth rate during the aforementioned period hit 40.2%. Both stats rank at least near the 90th percentile for the industry. On the bottom line, Nvidia carries a net margin of 26%. This ranks above 87% of the competition.To top it off, NVDA is tethered to a strong balance sheet. Mainly, its Altman Z-Score is a lofty 12 points, reflecting extremely low bankruptcy risk. Thus, NVDA easily ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November.Adobe (ADBE)Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE) is a software company that mainly aligns with creatives. Historically, it’s known for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia/video, motion pictures and print. Currently, Adobe carries a market cap of $151 billion after slipping 43% year to date.Again, based onGuruFocus’proprietary metrics, Adobe rates as significantly undervalued. One traditional metric regarding valuation to consider is its price-earnings-growth ratio of 1.09. This rates favorably below the industry median of 1.4 times.However, Adobe draws the most attention for its income statement-related performance. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate and free cash flow growth rate stand at 21.9% and 23.7%, respectively. Both figures rank conspicuously above sector averages.On the bottom line, Adobe carries a net margin of 28%, well above the industry median of 1.9%. Throw in a stable balance sheet and you have another solid candidate for best tech stocks to buy in November.Intel (INTC)One of the powerhouses in the semiconductor industry, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) represents the world’s second-largest semiconductor chip manufacturer by revenue. Per its corporate profile, it’s also one of the developers of the x86 series of instruction sets, the instruction sets found in most personal computers. Presently, INTC commands a market cap of $119 billion and is down 44% for the year.Despite sharp losses, INTC is among the best tech stocks to buy in November. Notably, INTC is significantly undervalued based on traditional metrics. Its forward P/E ratio is 10.1, below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its Shiller P/E ratio is 7.6, below the sector median of nearly 24.On the income statement, Intel features an overall solid profile. Its three-year book growth rate stands at 12.4%, above 61.5% of the competition. For net margin, it hit 26%, better than 87% of its peers.Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)A multinational semiconductor firm, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) represents the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, and one of Taiwan’s largest companies, per its public profile. Presently, TSM commands a market cap of nearly $322 billion and is down 48% year to date.Despite the severe erosion of equity value, TSM ranks among the best tech stocks to buy in November for contrarians. PerGuruFocus, TSM is significantly undervalued. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.9 is below the industry median of 13.7. Also, its price-to-owner earnings ratio is 10.5, below the industry median of 16.1.Primarily, though, TSM is all about its profitability machine. Gross, operating and net margins hit 55%, 44.7% and 40.6% respectively. Each of these metrics was well above sector median levels. As well, TSM enjoys solid growth figures, with its three-year revenue growth rate coming in at 15.5%. This ranks above 68.5% of the competition.Applied Materials (AMAT)Applied Materials(NASDAQ:AMAT) represents the leader in materials engineering solutions used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display in the world, per its website. Currently, Applied Materials features a market cap of $77 billion, and the stock is down 43% year to date.PerGuruFocus, AMAT stock is significantly undervalued. A notable standout in terms of traditional metrics is its PEG ratio of 0.56. This ranks favorably below the industry median of 0.75.Primarily, though, Applied Materials will likely draw attention as one of the best tech stocks to buy in November because of its high-quality business. Specifically, the company’s return on equity and return on assets hit 55.5% and 26.1%, respectively. Both stats rank among the upper echelons of the semiconductor industry.To top it off, AMAT features a stable balance sheet. Most prominently, its Altman Z-Score of 7.5 implies low bankruptcy risk.Lam Research (LRCX)Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX) is an American supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and related services to the semiconductor industry. Currently, the company carries a market cap of slightly over $55 billion after falling 44% year to date. The stock’s average daily volume is approximately 1.9 million shares.Fundamentally, the case for LRCX as one of the top tech stocks to buy in November is two-fold. First, Lam represents a high-quality business. Its return on equity is a blistering 75.8%. That’s above 99% of the semiconductor industry. As well, the company’s return on assets hit 28.6%, ranking above 97% of its peers.Second, Lam enjoys outstanding sales-related performance. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate is 26.6%, better than 84% of the competition. As well, the company’s book growth rate during the same period is 11.9%, better than nearly 60% of its rivals.NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)Netherlands-based NXP Semiconductors(NASDAQ:NXPI) is a semiconductor designer and manufacturer. After falling 33% this year, it has a market cap of roughly $40 billion. Average trading volume is around 2.1 million shares a day.Interestingly, the YTD performance makes NXP one of the better-performing semiconductor firms. However, that’s not the reason why it’s on this list of best tech stocks to buy in November. Fundamentally, the stock is significantly undervalued based on proprietary calculations. And its forward P/E ratio of 10.6 is below the industry median of 13.7 times.The company enjoys substantive profitability margins, including an operating margin of 27%, which ranks above 84% of its peers. It’s also a high-quality business with a return on equity of nearly 36%.About the one glaring risk factor is balance sheet stability. Its Altman Z-Score pings at 2.4, which is in a gray zone. 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Occidental, Chevron, BP, Halliburton, Callon and Exxon Mobi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Energy stocks gained in morning trading. Occidental, Chevron, BP, Halliburton, Callon and Exxon Mobil rose between 1% and 7%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c18de0327cf0b735f8ae6b3a6c83b8\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy Stocks Gained in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy Stocks Gained in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-14 21:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Energy stocks gained in morning trading. Occidental, Chevron, BP, Halliburton, Callon and Exxon Mobil rose between 1% and 7%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c18de0327cf0b735f8ae6b3a6c83b8\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159676379","content_text":"Energy stocks gained in morning trading. Occidental, Chevron, BP, Halliburton, Callon and Exxon Mobil rose between 1% and 7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890819418,"gmtCreate":1628090964334,"gmtModify":1703501141737,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" z","listText":" z","text":"z","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890819418","repostId":"1167639340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167639340","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628088005,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167639340?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"波音盘中直线拉升，737 Max将到中国接受认证测试","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167639340","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三盘中，波音直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。","content":"<p>周三盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/295b33f8b1062f660ebe38937b8dc87d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>波音盘中直线拉升，737 Max将到中国接受认证测试</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n波音盘中直线拉升，737 Max将到中国接受认证测试\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周三盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/295b33f8b1062f660ebe38937b8dc87d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02346726093e06d899a1879905b1c340","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167639340","content_text":"周三盘中，波音直线拉升， 抹去日内跌幅。消息面上，波音一架737 Max客机即将启程前往中国接受认证测试。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159211634,"gmtCreate":1624969670228,"gmtModify":1703849034988,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159211634","repostId":"1100369453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100369453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624964887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100369453?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储按兵不动，为什么市场普遍解读“偏鹰”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100369453","media":"海银财富","summary":"摘要：\n北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明，美联储选择按兵不动，符合预期。但鸽派的背后，我们认为此次会议更偏 “鹰派”。具体体现为：上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图隐含美联储2","content":"<p><b>摘要：</b></p>\n<p>北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明，美联储选择按兵不动，符合预期。但鸽派的背后，我们认为此次会议更偏 “鹰派”。具体体现为：上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图隐含美联储2023年将会提前加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>QE缩减方面, 我们预计美联储很有可能在9月会议上开始正式讨论缩减购债的具体计划，并于12月会议正式宣布。并从2022年1月开始逐步降低购债规模，至2022年12月最后一次会议时完全退出QE。利率方面，我们预计美联储可能会在2023年中开始，并至少计息两次。</p>\n<p>但不排除若未来通胀超出美联储容忍范围，美联储选择更早加息的可能。届时，美元走强，国际资本将加速回流美国市场，新兴市场国家或将遭遇股债汇三杀的局面。</p>\n<p><b>美联储6月议息会议整体维持不变</b></p>\n<p>北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明。整体维持此前货币决议不变，符合预期。维持联邦基金目标利率在0%-0.25%区间内，维持每月1200亿美元资产购买规模不变（800亿美元国债，400亿美元MBS）。但将超额准备金利率IOER和隔夜逆回购利率ONRRP区间上调5bp至0.05%-0.15%。</p>\n<p><b>但态度更偏“鹰派”</b></p>\n<p>本次会议是美联储在去年3月“一路向鸽”后，首次释放明确转鹰信号。尤其体现在在上调IOER和ONRRP、经济表述更为积极等方面。下面是本次议息会议的三大重点变化：</p>\n<p><b>1. 调整经济数据预期</b></p>\n<p>美联储上调经济增速预期。跟前次会议相比，着重肯定了疫苗对疫情恢复的贡献，且对经济恢复信心明显增强。本次会议美联储将2021年增长预期上调0.5%至7%。声明显示，“疫苗接种方面的进展控制了（reduced the spread）疫情在美国的传播。”而4月声明显示，“疫情在全球范围内对经济造成巨大损害（tremendous hardship）。”鲍威尔在随后的发布会上亦表示今年美国经济可能强劲复苏。他表示“广泛的疫苗接种，以及前所未有的财政政策行动，也为复苏提供了强有力的支持。经济活动和就业指标持续走强，今年的实际国内生产总值似乎有望实现几十年来最快的增长速度。”</p>\n<p>上调通胀预期，上调幅度超市场预期。声明明确指出通胀水平上升，同时鲍威尔承认通胀可能比预期的水平更高和时间更长。美联储将2021年PCE预期调整为 3.4%、较前值大幅抬升1个百分点，核心 PCE 预期也调整为3%，前值仅为2.2%。</p>\n<p>失业率水平整体不变。美联储对就业增长的表述不变，仍为 “不断改善”（have strengthened）。对未来的失业率预期与此前几乎保持不变。</p>\n<p>图表 1美联储经济数据预测<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46692bf745f5d8081a04bc48ebbec920\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：美联储，海银研究院</p>\n<p><b>2. 点阵图显示，2023年内可能加息两次</b></p>\n<p>利率方面，点阵图隐含提前加息可能，2023年内可能至少加息两次。参考反映美联储未来利率政策的点阵图可看出，美联储官员在3月会议时普遍认为将至少维持零利率政策至2023年底。而此次会议点阵图有较大变化，6月会议点阵图显示大部分官员都预测2023年内可能提前加息，甚至是预测2022年加息的官员也比3月时明显增多。另外，2023年利率预测中枢从3月的0.1%抬升至0.6%，意味着2023年内美联储可能会有至少两次加息操作。</p>\n<p>图表 2美联储2021年3月FOMC会议点阵图<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253e6288953039316f74da201a5e5801\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：FED，海银研究院</p>\n<p>图表 3美联储2021年6月FOMC会议点阵图<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c0102ef21f3d404bee85b60a5ce06c\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"> 数据来源：FED，海银研究院</p>\n<p>3. 上调利率走廊区间</p>\n<p>联储此次上调了利率走廊区间，将超额准备金利率IOER和隔夜逆回购利率ONRRP（分别为利率走廊的上下限）区间从0%-0.1%上调至0.05%-0.15%，以支持有效的政策实施和短期美元融资市场的平稳运行。</p>\n<p>图表 4 美联储上调利率走廊区间<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636f63e08baab3e9a99836bbf1f2dd53\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：Wind，海银研究院</p>\n<p>整体来看，美联储此次会议虽没有提前释放Taper信号，且鲍威尔也强调不能通过点阵图来预测未来利率走势，表示目前谈加息还为时尚早，以求给市场吃“安心丸”。但从具体内容来看，无论是上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图美联储官员的预测来看，不排除提前加息以控制通胀持续高企的可能性。</p>\n<p><b>美联储缩减QE和加息可能的时点预测：</b></p>\n<p><b>就业恢复是关键</b></p>\n<p>QE缩减方面, 就业恢复的程度是决定美联储Taper时点的关键性因素。若未来几个月就业恢复持续强劲，美联储则会开始着手讨论QE缩减计划。反正，若就业恢复不及预期，美联储可能选择持续观望，直至就业恢复至理想水平。</p>\n<p>图表 5目前美国就业恢复不及预期，短期联储仍将按兵不动<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23604df788b57dbe0ce299e66f30e2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：Wind，海银研究院</p>\n<p>参照美联储2013年货币政策正常化的经验来看，美联储很有可能在9月会议上开始正式讨论缩减购债的具体计划，并于12月会议正式宣布。按照目前每月1200亿美元的购债规模来看，预计每次缩减150亿美元，从2022年1月开始逐步降低购债规模，至2022年12月最后一次会议时完全退出QE。</p>\n<p>图表 6我们预计本轮QE将在2022年底结束</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b754a7f635b7d0d6b0b1f48566708cb0\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">数据来源：Wind，海银研究院</p>\n<p>加息方面。加息一般发生在QE结束后，若2022年底结束QE，美联储很可能最早在2023年初开始讨论加息事项，并于2023年中左右开始至少加息两次。</p>\n<p>图表 7点阵图显示美联储很可能在2023年至少加息两次<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e771012b3c148ff52d20755cd91e3944\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"> 数据来源：FED，海银研究院</p>\n<p><b>警惕通胀大幅上行，</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储提前加息的可能性</b></p>\n<p>在疫情不断好转的背景下，美国天量财政刺激及美国产出缺口的较快修复都加大了近期美国通胀的压力。Wind数据显示，美联储制定货币政策时参考的PCE通胀指标在4月同比上涨3.58%，创造了2008年以来最高水平。</p>\n<p>随着未来美国经济的进一步恢复，美国下半年通胀压力也将进一步加大。根据彭博预测显示，美国二季度美国将迎来通胀最高点，随后会在三季度逐渐回落，但年内通胀压力犹在，仍将处于3%水平之上。</p>\n<p>警惕提前加息对新兴市场国家的冲击。本次会议美联储虽再次强调允许通胀在一段时间内略高于2%的水平，且对通胀水平可能会持续更长、增长更快的可能性有一定的预期。但不排除若未来通胀超出美联储容忍范围，促使美联储选择更早加息的可能。届时，美元走强，国际资本将加速回流美国市场，新兴市场国家或将遭遇股债汇三杀的局面。新兴市场国家可能不得不采取继续加息的方式，以应对潜在的资本外流压力。若印度等疫情防控较差的国家选择加息，无疑对需要低利率环境刺激经济回暖的国家来说是雪上加霜。</p>\n<p>图表 8 美国通胀料将在三季度有所回落，但仍将高于3%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a6053ec35be961844988688c521dd54\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1614591202325","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储按兵不动，为什么市场普遍解读“偏鹰”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储按兵不动，为什么市场普遍解读“偏鹰”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 19:08 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?src=11×tamp=1625017730&ver=3161&signature=g7FeJ7ELPCHgUaQqGoC0ejSKlbZf2*HiG8oiMSD2jj4J3SLBEMaXVH0TTgpiuQdUQlhKBe1hB-UhfTk6QhWvApImWkixXIEB9z7MHni6pRJYFKOGlVdkzQr7DHyE2Wtf&new=1><strong>海银财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：\n北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明，美联储选择按兵不动，符合预期。但鸽派的背后，我们认为此次会议更偏 “鹰派”。具体体现为：上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图隐含美联储2023年将会提前加息的可能性。\nQE缩减方面, 我们预计美联储很有可能在9月会议上开始正式讨论缩减购债的具体计划，并于12月会议正式宣布。并从2022年1月开始逐步降低购债规模，至2022年12月最后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?src=11×tamp=1625017730&ver=3161&signature=g7FeJ7ELPCHgUaQqGoC0ejSKlbZf2*HiG8oiMSD2jj4J3SLBEMaXVH0TTgpiuQdUQlhKBe1hB-UhfTk6QhWvApImWkixXIEB9z7MHni6pRJYFKOGlVdkzQr7DHyE2Wtf&new=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?src=11×tamp=1625017730&ver=3161&signature=g7FeJ7ELPCHgUaQqGoC0ejSKlbZf2*HiG8oiMSD2jj4J3SLBEMaXVH0TTgpiuQdUQlhKBe1hB-UhfTk6QhWvApImWkixXIEB9z7MHni6pRJYFKOGlVdkzQr7DHyE2Wtf&new=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100369453","content_text":"摘要：\n北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明，美联储选择按兵不动，符合预期。但鸽派的背后，我们认为此次会议更偏 “鹰派”。具体体现为：上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图隐含美联储2023年将会提前加息的可能性。\nQE缩减方面, 我们预计美联储很有可能在9月会议上开始正式讨论缩减购债的具体计划，并于12月会议正式宣布。并从2022年1月开始逐步降低购债规模，至2022年12月最后一次会议时完全退出QE。利率方面，我们预计美联储可能会在2023年中开始，并至少计息两次。\n但不排除若未来通胀超出美联储容忍范围，美联储选择更早加息的可能。届时，美元走强，国际资本将加速回流美国市场，新兴市场国家或将遭遇股债汇三杀的局面。\n美联储6月议息会议整体维持不变\n北京时间6月17日，美联储公布6月议息会议声明。整体维持此前货币决议不变，符合预期。维持联邦基金目标利率在0%-0.25%区间内，维持每月1200亿美元资产购买规模不变（800亿美元国债，400亿美元MBS）。但将超额准备金利率IOER和隔夜逆回购利率ONRRP区间上调5bp至0.05%-0.15%。\n但态度更偏“鹰派”\n本次会议是美联储在去年3月“一路向鸽”后，首次释放明确转鹰信号。尤其体现在在上调IOER和ONRRP、经济表述更为积极等方面。下面是本次议息会议的三大重点变化：\n1. 调整经济数据预期\n美联储上调经济增速预期。跟前次会议相比，着重肯定了疫苗对疫情恢复的贡献，且对经济恢复信心明显增强。本次会议美联储将2021年增长预期上调0.5%至7%。声明显示，“疫苗接种方面的进展控制了（reduced the spread）疫情在美国的传播。”而4月声明显示，“疫情在全球范围内对经济造成巨大损害（tremendous hardship）。”鲍威尔在随后的发布会上亦表示今年美国经济可能强劲复苏。他表示“广泛的疫苗接种，以及前所未有的财政政策行动，也为复苏提供了强有力的支持。经济活动和就业指标持续走强，今年的实际国内生产总值似乎有望实现几十年来最快的增长速度。”\n上调通胀预期，上调幅度超市场预期。声明明确指出通胀水平上升，同时鲍威尔承认通胀可能比预期的水平更高和时间更长。美联储将2021年PCE预期调整为 3.4%、较前值大幅抬升1个百分点，核心 PCE 预期也调整为3%，前值仅为2.2%。\n失业率水平整体不变。美联储对就业增长的表述不变，仍为 “不断改善”（have strengthened）。对未来的失业率预期与此前几乎保持不变。\n图表 1美联储经济数据预测数据来源：美联储，海银研究院\n2. 点阵图显示，2023年内可能加息两次\n利率方面，点阵图隐含提前加息可能，2023年内可能至少加息两次。参考反映美联储未来利率政策的点阵图可看出，美联储官员在3月会议时普遍认为将至少维持零利率政策至2023年底。而此次会议点阵图有较大变化，6月会议点阵图显示大部分官员都预测2023年内可能提前加息，甚至是预测2022年加息的官员也比3月时明显增多。另外，2023年利率预测中枢从3月的0.1%抬升至0.6%，意味着2023年内美联储可能会有至少两次加息操作。\n图表 2美联储2021年3月FOMC会议点阵图数据来源：FED，海银研究院\n图表 3美联储2021年6月FOMC会议点阵图 数据来源：FED，海银研究院\n3. 上调利率走廊区间\n联储此次上调了利率走廊区间，将超额准备金利率IOER和隔夜逆回购利率ONRRP（分别为利率走廊的上下限）区间从0%-0.1%上调至0.05%-0.15%，以支持有效的政策实施和短期美元融资市场的平稳运行。\n图表 4 美联储上调利率走廊区间数据来源：Wind，海银研究院\n整体来看，美联储此次会议虽没有提前释放Taper信号，且鲍威尔也强调不能通过点阵图来预测未来利率走势，表示目前谈加息还为时尚早，以求给市场吃“安心丸”。但从具体内容来看，无论是上调经济增速预期，上调利率走廊区间，及点阵图美联储官员的预测来看，不排除提前加息以控制通胀持续高企的可能性。\n美联储缩减QE和加息可能的时点预测：\n就业恢复是关键\nQE缩减方面, 就业恢复的程度是决定美联储Taper时点的关键性因素。若未来几个月就业恢复持续强劲，美联储则会开始着手讨论QE缩减计划。反正，若就业恢复不及预期，美联储可能选择持续观望，直至就业恢复至理想水平。\n图表 5目前美国就业恢复不及预期，短期联储仍将按兵不动数据来源：Wind，海银研究院\n参照美联储2013年货币政策正常化的经验来看，美联储很有可能在9月会议上开始正式讨论缩减购债的具体计划，并于12月会议正式宣布。按照目前每月1200亿美元的购债规模来看，预计每次缩减150亿美元，从2022年1月开始逐步降低购债规模，至2022年12月最后一次会议时完全退出QE。\n图表 6我们预计本轮QE将在2022年底结束\n数据来源：Wind，海银研究院\n加息方面。加息一般发生在QE结束后，若2022年底结束QE，美联储很可能最早在2023年初开始讨论加息事项，并于2023年中左右开始至少加息两次。\n图表 7点阵图显示美联储很可能在2023年至少加息两次 数据来源：FED，海银研究院\n警惕通胀大幅上行，\n美联储提前加息的可能性\n在疫情不断好转的背景下，美国天量财政刺激及美国产出缺口的较快修复都加大了近期美国通胀的压力。Wind数据显示，美联储制定货币政策时参考的PCE通胀指标在4月同比上涨3.58%，创造了2008年以来最高水平。\n随着未来美国经济的进一步恢复，美国下半年通胀压力也将进一步加大。根据彭博预测显示，美国二季度美国将迎来通胀最高点，随后会在三季度逐渐回落，但年内通胀压力犹在，仍将处于3%水平之上。\n警惕提前加息对新兴市场国家的冲击。本次会议美联储虽再次强调允许通胀在一段时间内略高于2%的水平，且对通胀水平可能会持续更长、增长更快的可能性有一定的预期。但不排除若未来通胀超出美联储容忍范围，促使美联储选择更早加息的可能。届时，美元走强，国际资本将加速回流美国市场，新兴市场国家或将遭遇股债汇三杀的局面。新兴市场国家可能不得不采取继续加息的方式，以应对潜在的资本外流压力。若印度等疫情防控较差的国家选择加息，无疑对需要低利率环境刺激经济回暖的国家来说是雪上加霜。\n图表 8 美国通胀料将在三季度有所回落，但仍将高于3%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192830513,"gmtCreate":1621173860832,"gmtModify":1704353615766,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"E","listText":"E","text":"E","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192830513","repostId":"2135598119","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135598119","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621159200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135598119?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-16 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"穿越数次经济危机的罗杰斯经验","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135598119","media":"虎嗅","summary":"“永远不要做空自己的人生”","content":"<p>世界经济似乎拿到了一个“疯狂”的剧本。</p>\n<p>名不见经传的狗狗币，年内暴涨110倍，市值一度超越<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>，达到800亿美元。</p>\n<p>“带头大哥”比特币，10年间疯涨近60万倍。按理说，拥有112万枚比特币的比特币创始人中本聪已经是世界首富。</p>\n<p>就在前几天，全球加密货币的总市值甚至超越了美元货币的流通量。</p>\n<p>在另一边，还有着人类数千年历史从未见过的“怪胎”——负利率，以及美联储“无限吹大”的债务泡沫，空前规模的26万亿美元美债、达到7.8万亿美元规模的美联储资产负债表。</p>\n<p>一些人说，我们正坐在一辆驶向悬崖的失控汽车中，另一些人则辩解，“这次真的不一样”。</p>\n<p>针对上述话题，华尔街投资家吉姆·罗杰斯一语惊人：</p>\n<p>“一场比‘雷曼时刻’更大的危机，必定会到来。”</p>\n<p>罗杰斯是全球顶级对冲基金——量子基金（Quantum Fund）的创始人，曾在10年间赚取42倍的惊人回报，还曾准确预测1987年全球股灾、美国次贷危机。</p>\n<p>有人说，他是30年来每次危机都赚大钱的人；甚至连巴菲特都评价罗杰斯“把握时局大势的能力无人能及”。</p>\n<p>罗杰斯对时局大势又有哪些最新看法？</p>\n<p>以下内容为罗杰斯的口述，希望对你有所启发。</p>\n<p>为什么说比“雷曼时刻”更大的危机，必定会到来？</p>\n<p>作为职业投资家，每一天，我都在密切关注世界局势的发展。</p>\n<p>只要你有看电视新闻或报纸的习惯，特别是其中的经济类板块，并且每天都能事无巨细地浏览、咀嚼上面的每一条信息，相信你一定早就有了强烈的预感。</p>\n<p>“一个远超2008年‘雷曼时刻’的巨大危机即将到来。”从2019年开始，我就一再发出这样的警告。</p>\n<p>而危机这个东西就像滚雪球，在爆发前，这颗雪球已经在一个长长的斜坡上滚落了太长时间。</p>\n<p>就像当年引发“雷曼时刻”的一系列结构性金融问题，并不仅仅存在于美国，有太多迹象曾鲜明地预示它的发生：</p>\n<p>比如说冰岛。恐怕相当多的人都不知道这个国家在地图上的位置。可就是这样一个小国，曾为席卷世界的金融危机埋下重要伏笔。</p>\n<p>2007-2008年，冰岛陷入巨大的经济危机，当时占GDP四分之一的金融和房产泡沫已经破裂；2007年秋季开始，冰岛股市暴跌；汇率市场也未能幸免，2008年1-8月，半年多时间，冰岛克朗兑欧元的汇率下跌了超过35%。</p>\n<p>当时，这样的新闻可谓俯拾皆是。遗憾的是，大多数人都认为这些事件没什么大不了。</p>\n<p>由此可见，尽管许多人都认为雷曼危机是一场“突如其来”的灾难。事后想来，正是那些遭人忽略的小征兆、小迹象，通过不断发酵最终酿成那场严重的金融灾难。</p>\n<p>与雷曼危机爆发前的环境相比，现在的世界经济又到底是什么状况呢？</p>\n<p>此时此刻，在我看来正是“终结开始的时刻”，同样的征兆已经充斥眼帘、比比皆是：</p>\n<p>在拉脱维亚，银行破产早已不是什么新闻。比如，该国排名第3，也是波罗的海国家最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVTB\">私人银行</a>之一的ABLV银行在2018年实行破产清算，另一家主要的金融企业PNV银行紧随其后宣布破产。</p>\n<p>印度、土耳其、印度尼西亚等国家在政府财政方面的困境，人尽皆知。</p>\n<p>欧洲经济大国德国的情况也好不到哪里去。德国最大的民间银行——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>面临严重的经营危机，积累了过多的高风险金融衍生品资产，到2018年底总额竟然高达50万亿美元，相当于当年美国GDP的2.5倍。</p>\n<p>如此体量的金融机构一旦破产，给全球经济带来的冲击将不亚于“雷曼时刻”。</p>\n<p>让我们再把视线转向美国。表面上看，美国经济增长似乎颇为强劲，自2008年秋雷曼危机爆发以来，史上罕见的经济繁荣期已经持续了10余年——如此长、如此好的市场荣景过去从未发生过。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4ecf7c0052dafa9b4fddab0a61d7a0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们可以很容易地想象，被乐观冲昏了头，认为“这种好景气说不定可以再持续100年”的人一定少不了。</p>\n<p>这就是人性。当人们陷入疯狂的时候，永远都会用一句口头禅替自己辩解，“这次不一样”。</p>\n<p>这句话反过来说也成立：当许多人心照不宣地说出这句话的时候，很有可能人们已经陷入某种疯狂状态。</p>\n<p>对我来说，每当有人在我面前试图用“这次不一样”为自己的疯狂举动辩解时，我脑海中浮现的永远都是同样的人、同样的事、同样的想法、同样的行为和同样的下场。这样的画面，我见过的实在是太多了。</p>\n<p>很遗憾，只要有繁荣的开始，就必然会有繁荣的结束；只要是泡沫，必然会破灭。这是客观规律，不以人的意志为转移。</p>\n<p>这次也不会例外。问题还是出在“负债”这两个字上。美国境内“欠债上瘾”的幽灵再次出现，已经渗透到经济社会的每一个部门、每一个角落。</p>\n<p>尽管美国是世界第一经济大国，但同时它也是世界史上最大的债务国，没有之一。</p>\n<p>这个国家在“负债”这件事上，从未停止过狂奔的脚步。从前如此，现在如此，未来恐怕也如此。</p>\n<p>2008年，美联储资产负债表的规模是9000亿美元。时至今日，区区10余年，这个数字已经膨胀到7.8万亿美元之巨，这可是7倍以上的差距。</p>\n<p>当一个社会拼命借钱的时候，意味着这个社会存在着极为深刻、且不易解决的结构性问题。</p>\n<p>所以这一切都不可能是毫无代价的。而现在，正是付出代价的时候：</p>\n<p>美国两大汽车巨头通用和福特的大本营——底特律市早在2013年就已经破产。</p>\n<p>拥有国际大都市芝加哥，总人口近1300万人的伊利诺伊州，在美国是首屈一指的大州。</p>\n<p>可就是这样一个地方，却长期被地方债务余额暴增的顽疾所困，最近也濒临财政破产的边缘。</p>\n<p>为了解决财政问题，伊利诺伊州政府可谓伤透脑筋——他们让大麻和体彩赌博合法化，大肆拍卖珍藏许久的名家画作……使出浑身解数。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，迄今为止所有这些作为都是杯水车薪、于事无补。</p>\n<p>如果像伊利诺伊州这样的大州发生财政破产这种事，其波及效应将不可小觑；如果相继破产，那么在美国全境上演“多米诺骨牌”的戏码，将不会是一个令人意外的结果。</p>\n<p>一个硕大的“债务雪球”，依然在不停地滚动，现在，许多国家的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>依然在夜以继日地印刷着钞票。</p>\n<p>而且，在金融领域已经发生了从未发生的事情：世界经济的历史教科书上，从未记载过“负利率”的内容。</p>\n<p>远处的“警笛声”已从依稀模糊，渐渐变得清晰可闻。可以想象，当地球的每一个角落都在滚雪球的时候，这种破坏传播的速度、深度、烈度和广度也将是指数级的，下一场危机的规模和破坏力将远远超过当年的雷曼危机。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2adf86db4f9f29b573bba67ef2844c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>遗憾的是，“好了伤疤忘了疼”是人类的本性。当脑门上的伤养好后，人们永远都会再一次被相同的石头绊倒。</p>\n<p>可今天的我，已经不再同情这一人性的弱点。因为即便同情了也没用，人类永远都会醉心于那些完全没有根据的狂热。</p>\n<p>我所等待的，只是这种狂热必然会带来的结果，以及那些结果可能会带给我的机会。</p>\n<p>“永远不要做空自己的人生”</p>\n<p>在危机爆发前，我们身边将会发生什么样的变化？</p>\n<p>举个例子，一直人满为患的某家高级餐厅，忽然变得很容易预订。这时你要留个心眼。</p>\n<p>理由很简单。这要搁在以前，你这通电话打过去，对方一定会跟你说：“不好意思，已经满了。我们的预约订单已经排到两个月之后，请您那个时候再打电话试试吧。”</p>\n<p>可是现在，他们却以极其谦卑乃至急切的语气对你说“请务必光临鄙店，您大概什么时间方便呢？”</p>\n<p>还是那句话：事出反常必有妖。</p>\n<p>再比如，当你打车的时候，司机师傅跟你聊着聊着，突然开始抱怨最近挣不到什么钱了，这也是一个典型的危机征兆。</p>\n<p>总之，我们虽然身处烟火人间，却未必能深刻洞察经济社会中的所有蛛丝马迹。所以，跟不同行业的人交谈时，我们要倍加留意。因为这些人对自己行业的氛围最有感触，最能给你提供真正有用的信息。</p>\n<p>尽管是碎片化的信息，但把所有碎片一点点地拼接起来时，这个世界到底发生了什么以及即将发生什么，就会一目了然。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，拥有这种意识的人实在是太少了。对大多数人来说，别说是有人在耳边“吹哨”，即便有人在他们面前敲锣打鼓、大声吆喝，也极难唤醒那些已然麻木的神经。</p>\n<p>那么，当危机到来时，我们又该如何应对？</p>\n<p>首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。</p>\n<p>危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，15年后也许就会大错特错。</p>\n<p>让我们回望历史：1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年变成什么样了呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。</p>\n<p>对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。</p>\n<p>当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是15年。有时也许是10年，有时也许是25年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔10-15年，一次巨大的变化就会来临。</p>\n<p>举个例子，1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这放在10年前的1981年，几乎是不可想象的事情；1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年，苏联这个所谓的“红色帝国”便彻底消失了。</p>\n<p>受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的“终极胜利”，结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的“历史终结论”。</p>\n<p>可区区15年后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家却是一片欣欣向荣的景象。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d376a93165b62faab9ca179e679b9b1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由此，我可以断言：今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的。未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这点。</p>\n<p>另外，每当危机来临，总会有人失去一切；也总会有人想不开，做傻事。</p>\n<p>我还是那句话，既然好事不可持久，那么坏事也会如此。等一等，未来会不一样。正如中国那句古老的谚语：“留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。”</p>\n<p>我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。我曾有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择自杀这条不归路；我自己也曾因离婚而长期情绪低迷，但我现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的15年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。</p>\n<p>事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对“15年后自己的人生将截然不同”这一点一无所知。</p>\n<p>以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。</p>\n<p>如果他们还活着，15年后，当他们35岁时，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期待一下，等待一次。</p>\n<p>以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘时，想必有许多人陷入绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。</p>\n<p>掐指一算，正好15年。</p>\n<p>美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的“大萧条”中失去一切而轻生。可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，就会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为第二次世界大战结束时的美国，国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。</p>\n<p>掐指一算，又是15年。</p>\n<p>巴菲特有一句名言：“永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。”</p>\n<p>我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：</p>\n<p>“永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。”</p>\n<p>这不是安慰，是事实。</p>\n<p>我由衷地期望，最低限度，“活下去”的念头能够深入人心。只要活着，5年或10年后就会发现：“啊，当初没有做傻事的自己真是太英明了。”</p>\n<p>如果想做个有钱人，牢记这几件事</p>\n<p>许多人都想成为有钱人。可以理解，这是人性，也是人类社会不断进化的动力之一。</p>\n<p>问题在于，有太多人都在做一夜暴富的美梦，在重大历史机遇到来时，往往表现得过于见猎心喜、轻率冒进。</p>\n<p>尽管这也是人类的本性，即便是我也不例外，可如果屈服于它而不是战胜它，你的财富人生便会有很大的危险。</p>\n<p>所以如果想做个有钱人，记住这几件事：</p>\n<p>1. 只要能做到“不懂不投”，不愁赚不到大钱</p>\n<p>我一向认为，知其然而不知其所以然，是普通人与职业投资家最为重大的区别，没有之一。</p>\n<p>这就是所谓“不熟不做”的道理，“永远不要投资你自己不擅长、不熟悉的东西”。</p>\n<p>偏偏所有人都喜欢“独家情报”，特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点“内部消息”，都希望从我嘴里得到一句“哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！”</p>\n<p>可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。</p>\n<p>所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，现实世界中“专做不熟之事”的人何其多。有多少人仅仅靠着每天浏览载满各种投资信息的网页，寻觅投资标的，从而日复一日地给各类金融机构和投资掮客们白白送钱。</p>\n<p>举个例子，比如我今天晚上亲自到府上拜访，敲敲你的房门，对你说：“我叫吉姆，是一个证券经纪人。我们公司最近推出了一种特别牛的投资产品，只需要投50万人民币，明年就能有至少两三成的回报，您不想尝试一下吗？”</p>\n<p>遇到这样的事情，你会怎么做？不出意外，十有八九你不会给我开门，而是会婉拒我的“好意”。不仅如此，如果我不死心，继续纠缠不清的话，你甚至有可能报警。</p>\n<p>为什么你会这么做？答案很简单，因为你不认识我，也完全不懂我推荐的那款产品到底怎么回事。</p>\n<p>而另一方面，“钱”这个东西到底是怎么回事，以及它对你意味着什么，你则完全清楚。因此，你不可能把一个自己清楚的东西，轻率地投到一个自己不清楚的领域中去。</p>\n<p>对吗？就是这个意思。但讽刺的是，我们身边有太多人每天做的就是这件事。他们不断地把自己的血汗钱、把自己兜里的真金白银，无比草率地送给那些陌生的人、投给那些陌生的事。</p>\n<p>只是在手机上，不停地在“这只基金不错，看起来业绩挺好”“哦，不对。那只股票更厉害，短短3个月已经翻了两倍”之类的想法中跳来跳去、反复纠结，没有意义。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8d5dfd64f8eb70d0895a96bddc4472\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但无论如何纠结，或最终怎么选择，对那些潜在的投资标的，你依然一无所知。所以你的任何投资行为，从本质上讲都是错误的。</p>\n<p>总之，在你对“赚钱”这件事拥有真正的自信之前，不要轻易投资。耐心等待才是唯一的可选项。</p>\n<p>2. 别忘了孔子的教诲</p>\n<p>对我来说，每当遭遇磨难时，总是会从孔子的教诲中得到许多精神的力量。</p>\n<p>比如，孔子说过：譬如平地，虽覆一篑，进，吾往也。</p>\n<p>这就意味着，1永远大于0，千万不要小看1。100次地积累1，就是100；而100次地积累0，则还是0。</p>\n<p>但问题在于，要做到这点需要目光长远，忍耐再忍耐。对投资家来说，最重要的关键词是“忍耐”二字，没有之一。</p>\n<p>很大程度上，成功是忍出来的。为了实现人生的终极目标，对我而言，没有“忍无可忍”这一回事。</p>\n<p>还有一句：君子无终食之间违仁，造次必于是，颠沛必于是。</p>\n<p>这句话同样意味深远。也就是说，修行这件事，不是做给别人看的，而是为自己负责、让自己受益。</p>\n<p>换言之，在很大程度上是一种“自我圆满”的途径。</p>\n<p>比如，弯腰捡起马路上的一个烟头，不是为了让别人夸奖，也与试图通过这种举动影响他人的行为无关，甚至这个动作完全不需要得到任何人的关注。</p>\n<p>你之所以这样做，只是因为渴望“自我圆满”。不是为了做给别人看，只是由于你想、而且必须这样做。因此，你只需要为自己负责即可，无需介意他人怎么想、怎么说。投资也一样。</p>\n<p>只有做到这些才能成为一个成功的投资家——显然，2000多年前的孔子已经把投资之道彻底参透了。实在是厉害。</p>\n<p>3. 即使失败40次，成功3次即可</p>\n<p>迄今为止，在长达半世纪的投资生涯中，我曾屡屡失败，同时也收获过几次成功。但这几次成功都是所谓的“大成功”，基本上足以奠定我在投资界的地位。</p>\n<p>我将这形容为“40败3胜”，3胜的分量要远超40败。</p>\n<p>投资界有一句格言：“所谓成功，就是减损。”我认为这句话与我的“40败3胜”理论有异曲同工之妙：只要3胜的战果足够大，便足以弥补40败的损失，并最终获得巨大收益。</p>\n<p>所以你要的事情就是，把这些失败的损失控制在最低限度，以便用最小的失败去迎接下一个巨大成功。</p>\n<p>日本是一个典型的反面教材。也许这个国家曾经成功得太多、太大、太久，日本人对“失败”这件事有着强烈的陌生感以及潜在的恐惧、排斥心理。</p>\n<p>在泡沫经济破裂的20世纪90年代，对于那些经营不善、行将倒闭的企业，日本政府采取了“姑息”乃至“救援”的态度，“破产清算，重新出发”这一选项从未得到真正的重视。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e21677a183158efabc1865f0a3f56ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可见“惧怕失败”的文化氛围在日本这个国家，是何其浓厚。所以日本经济才会“失去”10年、20年、30年乃至更长时间。</p>\n<p>对大多数日本人来说，与其面对挑战、失败和众多的不确定性，不如安享眼前唾手可得的安逸划算。</p>\n<p>但这种思维和行为方式背后，隐藏着一个不易察觉却极为危险的陷阱，“安逸”这个东西，绝非免费的午餐。</p>\n<p>希望安逸一点的想法，本身没有错。问题在于，只有身边所有人都和你有着相同的想法，“安逸”才有可能成立。</p>\n<p>反之，如果在你享受安逸的时候，别人却在拼命努力，那么你的“安逸”迟早会化为泡影，被其他人无情地剥夺。</p>\n<p>所以与自身的好恶相比，现实才是真正重要的东西。哪怕你不那么喜欢、不那么期盼现实，但现实就是现实。一定要把钱投给现实，而不是自身的感受。</p>\n<p>4. 做生意的诀窍：找到“竞争最小”的领域</p>\n<p>我是在美国亚拉巴马州一个偏僻的小镇长大的。我小时候的学习成绩相当不错。但之所以表现突出，完全是同学们糟糕的成绩衬托的。</p>\n<p>所以我知道，就算我是孩子们的“头儿”，也并不是因为我真的很优秀，而是因为竞争匮乏。</p>\n<p>当年，每个周末都有棒球比赛。赛场里有个卖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>的阿姨。观赛的球迷都会到她那儿买上一瓶可乐，喝完后把空瓶子随手扔到地上。</p>\n<p>由于这些可乐瓶都在供货商那里付了押金，所以她只能一个一个地把地上的瓶子捡起来。这项工作看起来很辛苦，令她疲惫不堪。</p>\n<p>于是，5岁的我被这个意想不到的商机眷顾：捡空瓶子这件事由我替她做，作为回报，她会付给我一些报酬。每当有棒球赛，我们便会交易一次。</p>\n<p>从第二年开始，我有了自己的生意，在赛场里贩卖可乐和炒花生。当生意越做越大，一个人打理越发吃力时，我雇用了自己4岁的弟弟为我打工。</p>\n<p>这就意味着，5岁时的我还是那个阿姨的打工仔；而第二年，6岁的我已经自己当了老板，成了拥有一个正式雇员的资本家。</p>\n<p>这个生意持续了5年，我不但还清了为买炒制机器欠父亲的100美元，还攒下了100美元的利润。</p>\n<p>换言之，我人生中的第一次创业，是在6岁的时候，而且取得了圆满成功。但我之所以能做到这一点，并不是因为我有多聪明，而是竞争太弱、太少。</p>\n<p>所以从幼年的经历中，我得到一个极其重要的启发：那就是，无论是学业还是生意，竞争越少，取得成功的概率也就越高。</p>\n<p>这个发现一直到今天都令我受益匪浅。在我的投资之道中，有一个非常重要的点：</p>\n<p>在做企业分析、挑选潜在的投资对象时，我第一个关注的要素就是这些企业的竞争状况。谁的竞争对手少，我就会投资谁。因为这样的投资才有较高的成功率。</p>\n<p>关于未来，我有4点看法</p>\n<p>1. 世界经济重心的“东移进行时”</p>\n<p>从今往后，世界经济的重心将会转向东方。</p>\n<p>我个人格外关注的国家是中国和俄罗斯。这两个国家有几个共同点：储量惊人的自然资源、众多的人口、不群的军事力量，而且都位于世界的东方。</p>\n<p>重温一遍历史，1910年的大英帝国是世界唯一的支配性力量，也就是所谓的“超级大国”。但100年后的2010年，大英帝国即使没有崩溃，也处在持续的衰落中。而美国则成为唯一的超级大国。</p>\n<p>从1910年往前推100年，也就是1810年时，奥地利帝国是公认的欧洲乃至世界强权；由此再往前推200年，1610年时，西班牙是毋庸置疑的欧洲之王。</p>\n<p>而几百年前的16世纪，葡萄牙则一度达到繁荣的极致。那时的葡萄牙人走路带风、荷包满满，是欧洲大陆的人们普遍羡慕的对象。</p>\n<p>由此可见，强权轮流坐庄是历史的必然；大国衰弱、大国崛起、大国复兴是人类发展的常态。这是我们这个世界的基本运行规律。无论你是否喜欢，历史就是历史、事实就是事实。</p>\n<p>所以，今天的美国既然已经达到繁荣的顶峰，那么大概率事件从此将踏上下坡路。</p>\n<p>接力棒将传到谁的手里？</p>\n<p>我认为是中国。</p>\n<p>还是那句话，中国不仅有钱，还有明确的愿景，清晰地知道自己想要的是什么、想做的是什么，以及到底应该怎么做。这样的国家及其发展战略不可能不取得成功。</p>\n<p>我亲眼看到许多中国人每天凌晨5点钟便开始了一天的劳作，对待工作无怨无悔、尽心尽责。</p>\n<p>那是一种为了生存、为了过上更好的日子而不惜一切代价的姿态，而这样的姿态不可能不造就出一个伟大民族无比光明的未来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0725faa2c05cdaf45d0c717d284239c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，100年后可能这根接力棒又会传到其他人手里；再过100年，同样的事情将再发生一次。这样的循环会永恒持续。</p>\n<p>唯一的区别，也许将是“王道”和“霸道”之分。</p>\n<p>奉行“王道”思想的中国，远在欧洲大陆的“大航海时代”揭开帷幕前，就已率先在航海事业上取得卓越成就。</p>\n<p>典型代表就是著名的“郑和下西洋”。航海家郑和即使七下西洋，也没有为中国攫取一寸殖民地，而是为无数<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">新大陆</a>的原住民们带去丝绸、瓷器和各种金银财宝。</p>\n<p>因为中国的传统文化信奉的不是“霸道”，而是“王道”；不是“武器”，而是“生意”；不是“零和”，而是“共赢”。即使今天，这也是中国人的思维和行为方式。</p>\n<p>但是，当年的欧洲列强却截然相反。他们信奉的是“霸道”、“武器”与“零和”。</p>\n<p>当这些国家的船队借助古老中国的发明——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300803\">指南针</a>，来到一片又一片别人的土地时，他们拿出的不是丝绸，而是枪支，“你们的地盘，从今往后就属于我们了。你们所有人都要给我们做奴隶”。</p>\n<p>他们用冰冷的枪口指着当地人的脑袋，面无表情地威胁着。尽管后者的回答是“不”，却没人能抵挡现代工业文明的淫威。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，这种“零和”与“霸道”思维一直到今天依然在欧美国家的政客中占据统治地位。</p>\n<p>他们信奉的依然是强权，是武力的高低，是“顺我者昌，逆我者亡”的世界观。没有几个政客真正理解或愿意相信中国的“王道”思想。</p>\n<p>这种事物认知方式的根本差异，无疑埋下了不少矛盾与冲突的种子。但历史必将给出唯一的正解。还是那句话，这是客观规律，不以人的意志为转移。</p>\n<p>2. 不向外国人开放的国家，必然衰弱</p>\n<p>一个国家是否能够兴旺发达，与治理方式无关，只与是否开放有关。</p>\n<p>现在美国一流的科技企业中相当多的CEO、高管及研发部门的骨干人才都是移民，特别是亚洲国家的移民。</p>\n<p>这也是这些跨国公司能够如此强大，如此长时间地称雄世界市场至关重要的原因。</p>\n<p>“苹果之父”乔布斯的经历就是一个典型。这位美国的创新之王，是叙利亚移民的后代。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb513f48df06a0005a036c210035247\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>一个非常朴素的问题：吸收大量移民的国家会发生什么？</p>\n<p>很简单。远离自己的国土、千里移民而来的人们，大多都会拼死工作，想尽办法为自己和家人创造更为富裕美好的生活。</p>\n<p>这件事一定会发生。否则，抛弃早已习惯的舒适区，孤注一掷地投入一个完全陌生的环境，便也没有了任何意义。</p>\n<p>为了让子女接受更好的教育，每个移民都会拼命挣钱；除此之外，他们还渴望享受生活，会用自己的血汗钱购买汽车、家用电器等；当然，还会用自己的储蓄做首付，从银行贷款买房。</p>\n<p>把上述种种场景联结起来，就是一本生动的经济学教科书。</p>\n<p>换言之，移民们的勤勉、消费与欲望，将成为一个国家或地区强大的经济发动机。这本身就是一种优质生产力的体现。</p>\n<p>我认为，无论时代如何变化，让移民向往的、愿意抛弃一切前往的国家，一定会繁荣昌盛。所以国门是开放还是封闭，是搞外向型还是内向型经济，才是真正决定一个国家命运的基石。</p>\n<p>3. 如果有人“忽悠”你投资比特币，万万要小心</p>\n<p>我一直认为，区块链将是一个具有划时代意义的创新技术，将从方方面面深刻改变我们现在所熟悉的一切。</p>\n<p>但人们开始担心一个源于区块链技术的“大规模失业时代”即将来临。</p>\n<p>那么，事情的真相又如何呢？我认为，区块链确实有可能消灭许多工作岗位，却未必会带来所谓的“大规模失业时代”。</p>\n<p>想当年，计算机的诞生也曾夺走许多人的工作。可另一方面，又创造了大量的新机会。起码，“程序编码员”这个工种今天已经没有人会感到陌生。</p>\n<p>所以，区块链技术的普及及其周边产业的勃兴给我们带来的不可能只有输家，还会有大量赢家。</p>\n<p>重点是，许多暂时的输家一旦适应这项技术，也依然能跻身赢家行列。前提是真正明白区块链到底是个什么东西。否则无论身边出现多少赢家，这份幸运也落不到你头上。</p>\n<p>比如，为了赶区块链的时髦，现在有许多人热衷投资各种“虚拟加密数字货币”。</p>\n<p>但讽刺的是，他们投入了如此多的真金白银，却连支撑这种数字货币的区块链技术到底是什么都一无所知。性质无异于赌博。</p>\n<p>至于我个人，无论是比特币，还是什么这个“币”、那个“币”，我一律不感兴趣，一律不投资。</p>\n<p>现如今，包括比特币在内，各种虚拟加密数字货币的市场价格，普遍存在着波动幅度过于剧烈的问题，爆赚血赔都在一瞬间。而具有这种特质的商品往往都极不靠谱，投资价值极低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd3ca81e09dcb67fb72ee44154534da\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我个人认为，即便是今天大名鼎鼎、备受追捧的比特币，最后恐怕也难逃厄运，将被市场无情驱逐。</p>\n<p>我隐隐有种感觉，今天那些热衷“虚拟数字货币”交易的人，好像觉得自己比政府还要聪明、还有能力，可以将一种未经国家机器授权的所谓“货币”，玩弄于股掌之上而不用承担后果。何止不承担后果，甚至还能赚大钱。</p>\n<p>但别忘了，国家机器毕竟是国家机器，法律毕竟是法律，游戏规则毕竟是游戏规则。试图与国家叫板，无异于螳臂当车。</p>\n<p>所以不妨想想看，如果政府明令禁止交易、使用虚拟数字货币的话，会发生什么？绝对不可小觑这种可能性。因为没有哪个国家会容忍主权货币的地位遭到挑战，那将会引发一个国家金融秩序的巨大混乱。</p>\n<p>普通数字货币和主权数字货币是两码事。换言之，主权数字货币是政府行为，是国家机器的产物，而比特币等一般数字货币则不具备这一性质。</p>\n<p>所以把政府对区块链技术和主权数字货币的支持，视为比特币和其他虚拟数字货币的投资机会，绝对是一种天大的误解。如果有人用这个说辞来忽悠你，你要万万多加小心。</p>\n<p>4. 切记：被视为“常识”的事，千万别信</p>\n<p>人们对所谓“常识”太过痴迷，以至于到了执迷不悟的程度。</p>\n<p>对绝大多数人来说，但凡不是在电视或互联网上广为人知、广被接受的东西，他们是信不过的。可见“常识”的厉害。这个东西具有强大的洗脑功能，让人们只相信那些大多数人相信的东西。</p>\n<p>如果你心里有一个想法，而这个想法有违一般的常识，那么当你把这个想法告诉别人时，恐怕没人会相信你。</p>\n<p>违背常识的东西就像一个怪物，所以违背常识的话在大多数人听来，都不像是人类的声音，而与夜晚的狼嚎更为相似。</p>\n<p>这是人性。所以，那些愿意倾听、乃至相信与众不同的观点的人，堪称这个世界的稀罕物。</p>\n<p>再强调一遍：所有我们以为的“常识”，每隔15年大概率必会推倒重来，变成“非常识”。</p>\n<p>假设你生活在1930年相对富裕和平的日本，会想到1945年的日本因为发动侵略战争而变成“一片焦土”吗？</p>\n<p>假设你生活在1998年受到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>危机波及的中国，又能想到2013年的中国是如此繁荣吗？</p>\n<p>如果有时光机器，可以让人们回到15年前，当被告知15年后的世界是什么样子的时候，又有几个人会真正相信？</p>\n<p>可历史就是历史。历史一再地证明了这一点：第二次世界大战、柏林墙的倒塌、中国经济的迅速崛起……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92dc8a266e41df2d9c50facb10bd8d7f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>所以以我的人生经验看，真理往往掌握在少数人手中，这就意味着多数人的话往往不正确、不可信。</p>\n<p>从无数的失败中，我最大的收获之一，就是彻悟了“务必独立思考”这件事。不人云亦云，完全用自己的脑子思考问题这件事，从来就不简单。</p>\n<p>曾几何时，稚嫩的我也曾试图仰仗他人的建议与学识来进行投资，可我发现，即便是从真正的高手那里得到的信息，往往也会带来不同的投资结果：给我建议的高手会赢，而我却会输。</p>\n<p>没错，哪怕是投资同一个标的，别人能赢，而你却未必。因为心态、技巧甚至价值观的不同，都会影响人们的具体行为；而不同的行为必然会带来不同的结果。</p>\n<p>所以，独立思考的重要性在于：让自己置身事内，而不是事外；让自己成为内行，而不是外行。</p>\n<p>有鉴于此，在自己孩子的教育方面，我最重视的一句话就是：</p>\n<p>“用你自己的脑袋思考。”</p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>穿越数次经济危机的罗杰斯经验</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n穿越数次经济危机的罗杰斯经验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-16 18:00 北京时间 <a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/428279.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>世界经济似乎拿到了一个“疯狂”的剧本。\n名不见经传的狗狗币，年内暴涨110倍，市值一度超越Twitter，达到800亿美元。\n“带头大哥”比特币，10年间疯涨近60万倍。按理说，拥有112万枚比特币的比特币创始人中本聪已经是世界首富。\n就在前几天，全球加密货币的总市值甚至超越了美元货币的流通量。\n在另一边，还有着人类数千年历史从未见过的“怪胎”——负利率，以及美联储“无限吹大”的债务泡沫，空前规模...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/428279.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5279a0cb0959a35a4379ec5b691a6159","relate_stocks":{"ROG":"罗杰斯"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/428279.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135598119","content_text":"世界经济似乎拿到了一个“疯狂”的剧本。\n名不见经传的狗狗币，年内暴涨110倍，市值一度超越Twitter，达到800亿美元。\n“带头大哥”比特币，10年间疯涨近60万倍。按理说，拥有112万枚比特币的比特币创始人中本聪已经是世界首富。\n就在前几天，全球加密货币的总市值甚至超越了美元货币的流通量。\n在另一边，还有着人类数千年历史从未见过的“怪胎”——负利率，以及美联储“无限吹大”的债务泡沫，空前规模的26万亿美元美债、达到7.8万亿美元规模的美联储资产负债表。\n一些人说，我们正坐在一辆驶向悬崖的失控汽车中，另一些人则辩解，“这次真的不一样”。\n针对上述话题，华尔街投资家吉姆·罗杰斯一语惊人：\n“一场比‘雷曼时刻’更大的危机，必定会到来。”\n罗杰斯是全球顶级对冲基金——量子基金（Quantum Fund）的创始人，曾在10年间赚取42倍的惊人回报，还曾准确预测1987年全球股灾、美国次贷危机。\n有人说，他是30年来每次危机都赚大钱的人；甚至连巴菲特都评价罗杰斯“把握时局大势的能力无人能及”。\n罗杰斯对时局大势又有哪些最新看法？\n以下内容为罗杰斯的口述，希望对你有所启发。\n为什么说比“雷曼时刻”更大的危机，必定会到来？\n作为职业投资家，每一天，我都在密切关注世界局势的发展。\n只要你有看电视新闻或报纸的习惯，特别是其中的经济类板块，并且每天都能事无巨细地浏览、咀嚼上面的每一条信息，相信你一定早就有了强烈的预感。\n“一个远超2008年‘雷曼时刻’的巨大危机即将到来。”从2019年开始，我就一再发出这样的警告。\n而危机这个东西就像滚雪球，在爆发前，这颗雪球已经在一个长长的斜坡上滚落了太长时间。\n就像当年引发“雷曼时刻”的一系列结构性金融问题，并不仅仅存在于美国，有太多迹象曾鲜明地预示它的发生：\n比如说冰岛。恐怕相当多的人都不知道这个国家在地图上的位置。可就是这样一个小国，曾为席卷世界的金融危机埋下重要伏笔。\n2007-2008年，冰岛陷入巨大的经济危机，当时占GDP四分之一的金融和房产泡沫已经破裂；2007年秋季开始，冰岛股市暴跌；汇率市场也未能幸免，2008年1-8月，半年多时间，冰岛克朗兑欧元的汇率下跌了超过35%。\n当时，这样的新闻可谓俯拾皆是。遗憾的是，大多数人都认为这些事件没什么大不了。\n由此可见，尽管许多人都认为雷曼危机是一场“突如其来”的灾难。事后想来，正是那些遭人忽略的小征兆、小迹象，通过不断发酵最终酿成那场严重的金融灾难。\n与雷曼危机爆发前的环境相比，现在的世界经济又到底是什么状况呢？\n此时此刻，在我看来正是“终结开始的时刻”，同样的征兆已经充斥眼帘、比比皆是：\n在拉脱维亚，银行破产早已不是什么新闻。比如，该国排名第3，也是波罗的海国家最大的私人银行之一的ABLV银行在2018年实行破产清算，另一家主要的金融企业PNV银行紧随其后宣布破产。\n印度、土耳其、印度尼西亚等国家在政府财政方面的困境，人尽皆知。\n欧洲经济大国德国的情况也好不到哪里去。德国最大的民间银行——德意志银行面临严重的经营危机，积累了过多的高风险金融衍生品资产，到2018年底总额竟然高达50万亿美元，相当于当年美国GDP的2.5倍。\n如此体量的金融机构一旦破产，给全球经济带来的冲击将不亚于“雷曼时刻”。\n让我们再把视线转向美国。表面上看，美国经济增长似乎颇为强劲，自2008年秋雷曼危机爆发以来，史上罕见的经济繁荣期已经持续了10余年——如此长、如此好的市场荣景过去从未发生过。\n\n我们可以很容易地想象，被乐观冲昏了头，认为“这种好景气说不定可以再持续100年”的人一定少不了。\n这就是人性。当人们陷入疯狂的时候，永远都会用一句口头禅替自己辩解，“这次不一样”。\n这句话反过来说也成立：当许多人心照不宣地说出这句话的时候，很有可能人们已经陷入某种疯狂状态。\n对我来说，每当有人在我面前试图用“这次不一样”为自己的疯狂举动辩解时，我脑海中浮现的永远都是同样的人、同样的事、同样的想法、同样的行为和同样的下场。这样的画面，我见过的实在是太多了。\n很遗憾，只要有繁荣的开始，就必然会有繁荣的结束；只要是泡沫，必然会破灭。这是客观规律，不以人的意志为转移。\n这次也不会例外。问题还是出在“负债”这两个字上。美国境内“欠债上瘾”的幽灵再次出现，已经渗透到经济社会的每一个部门、每一个角落。\n尽管美国是世界第一经济大国，但同时它也是世界史上最大的债务国，没有之一。\n这个国家在“负债”这件事上，从未停止过狂奔的脚步。从前如此，现在如此，未来恐怕也如此。\n2008年，美联储资产负债表的规模是9000亿美元。时至今日，区区10余年，这个数字已经膨胀到7.8万亿美元之巨，这可是7倍以上的差距。\n当一个社会拼命借钱的时候，意味着这个社会存在着极为深刻、且不易解决的结构性问题。\n所以这一切都不可能是毫无代价的。而现在，正是付出代价的时候：\n美国两大汽车巨头通用和福特的大本营——底特律市早在2013年就已经破产。\n拥有国际大都市芝加哥，总人口近1300万人的伊利诺伊州，在美国是首屈一指的大州。\n可就是这样一个地方，却长期被地方债务余额暴增的顽疾所困，最近也濒临财政破产的边缘。\n为了解决财政问题，伊利诺伊州政府可谓伤透脑筋——他们让大麻和体彩赌博合法化，大肆拍卖珍藏许久的名家画作……使出浑身解数。\n遗憾的是，迄今为止所有这些作为都是杯水车薪、于事无补。\n如果像伊利诺伊州这样的大州发生财政破产这种事，其波及效应将不可小觑；如果相继破产，那么在美国全境上演“多米诺骨牌”的戏码，将不会是一个令人意外的结果。\n一个硕大的“债务雪球”，依然在不停地滚动，现在，许多国家的中央银行依然在夜以继日地印刷着钞票。\n而且，在金融领域已经发生了从未发生的事情：世界经济的历史教科书上，从未记载过“负利率”的内容。\n远处的“警笛声”已从依稀模糊，渐渐变得清晰可闻。可以想象，当地球的每一个角落都在滚雪球的时候，这种破坏传播的速度、深度、烈度和广度也将是指数级的，下一场危机的规模和破坏力将远远超过当年的雷曼危机。\n\n遗憾的是，“好了伤疤忘了疼”是人类的本性。当脑门上的伤养好后，人们永远都会再一次被相同的石头绊倒。\n可今天的我，已经不再同情这一人性的弱点。因为即便同情了也没用，人类永远都会醉心于那些完全没有根据的狂热。\n我所等待的，只是这种狂热必然会带来的结果，以及那些结果可能会带给我的机会。\n“永远不要做空自己的人生”\n在危机爆发前，我们身边将会发生什么样的变化？\n举个例子，一直人满为患的某家高级餐厅，忽然变得很容易预订。这时你要留个心眼。\n理由很简单。这要搁在以前，你这通电话打过去，对方一定会跟你说：“不好意思，已经满了。我们的预约订单已经排到两个月之后，请您那个时候再打电话试试吧。”\n可是现在，他们却以极其谦卑乃至急切的语气对你说“请务必光临鄙店，您大概什么时间方便呢？”\n还是那句话：事出反常必有妖。\n再比如，当你打车的时候，司机师傅跟你聊着聊着，突然开始抱怨最近挣不到什么钱了，这也是一个典型的危机征兆。\n总之，我们虽然身处烟火人间，却未必能深刻洞察经济社会中的所有蛛丝马迹。所以，跟不同行业的人交谈时，我们要倍加留意。因为这些人对自己行业的氛围最有感触，最能给你提供真正有用的信息。\n尽管是碎片化的信息，但把所有碎片一点点地拼接起来时，这个世界到底发生了什么以及即将发生什么，就会一目了然。\n遗憾的是，拥有这种意识的人实在是太少了。对大多数人来说，别说是有人在耳边“吹哨”，即便有人在他们面前敲锣打鼓、大声吆喝，也极难唤醒那些已然麻木的神经。\n那么，当危机到来时，我们又该如何应对？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。\n危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，15年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们回望历史：1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年变成什么样了呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是15年。有时也许是10年，有时也许是25年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔10-15年，一次巨大的变化就会来临。\n举个例子，1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这放在10年前的1981年，几乎是不可想象的事情；1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年，苏联这个所谓的“红色帝国”便彻底消失了。\n受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的“终极胜利”，结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的“历史终结论”。\n可区区15年后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家却是一片欣欣向荣的景象。\n\n由此，我可以断言：今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的。未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这点。\n另外，每当危机来临，总会有人失去一切；也总会有人想不开，做傻事。\n我还是那句话，既然好事不可持久，那么坏事也会如此。等一等，未来会不一样。正如中国那句古老的谚语：“留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。”\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。我曾有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择自杀这条不归路；我自己也曾因离婚而长期情绪低迷，但我现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的15年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对“15年后自己的人生将截然不同”这一点一无所知。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。\n如果他们还活着，15年后，当他们35岁时，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期待一下，等待一次。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘时，想必有许多人陷入绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。\n掐指一算，正好15年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的“大萧条”中失去一切而轻生。可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，就会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为第二次世界大战结束时的美国，国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是15年。\n巴菲特有一句名言：“永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。”\n我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：\n“永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。”\n这不是安慰，是事实。\n我由衷地期望，最低限度，“活下去”的念头能够深入人心。只要活着，5年或10年后就会发现：“啊，当初没有做傻事的自己真是太英明了。”\n如果想做个有钱人，牢记这几件事\n许多人都想成为有钱人。可以理解，这是人性，也是人类社会不断进化的动力之一。\n问题在于，有太多人都在做一夜暴富的美梦，在重大历史机遇到来时，往往表现得过于见猎心喜、轻率冒进。\n尽管这也是人类的本性，即便是我也不例外，可如果屈服于它而不是战胜它，你的财富人生便会有很大的危险。\n所以如果想做个有钱人，记住这几件事：\n1. 只要能做到“不懂不投”，不愁赚不到大钱\n我一向认为，知其然而不知其所以然，是普通人与职业投资家最为重大的区别，没有之一。\n这就是所谓“不熟不做”的道理，“永远不要投资你自己不擅长、不熟悉的东西”。\n偏偏所有人都喜欢“独家情报”，特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点“内部消息”，都希望从我嘴里得到一句“哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！”\n可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n遗憾的是，现实世界中“专做不熟之事”的人何其多。有多少人仅仅靠着每天浏览载满各种投资信息的网页，寻觅投资标的，从而日复一日地给各类金融机构和投资掮客们白白送钱。\n举个例子，比如我今天晚上亲自到府上拜访，敲敲你的房门，对你说：“我叫吉姆，是一个证券经纪人。我们公司最近推出了一种特别牛的投资产品，只需要投50万人民币，明年就能有至少两三成的回报，您不想尝试一下吗？”\n遇到这样的事情，你会怎么做？不出意外，十有八九你不会给我开门，而是会婉拒我的“好意”。不仅如此，如果我不死心，继续纠缠不清的话，你甚至有可能报警。\n为什么你会这么做？答案很简单，因为你不认识我，也完全不懂我推荐的那款产品到底怎么回事。\n而另一方面，“钱”这个东西到底是怎么回事，以及它对你意味着什么，你则完全清楚。因此，你不可能把一个自己清楚的东西，轻率地投到一个自己不清楚的领域中去。\n对吗？就是这个意思。但讽刺的是，我们身边有太多人每天做的就是这件事。他们不断地把自己的血汗钱、把自己兜里的真金白银，无比草率地送给那些陌生的人、投给那些陌生的事。\n只是在手机上，不停地在“这只基金不错，看起来业绩挺好”“哦，不对。那只股票更厉害，短短3个月已经翻了两倍”之类的想法中跳来跳去、反复纠结，没有意义。\n\n但无论如何纠结，或最终怎么选择，对那些潜在的投资标的，你依然一无所知。所以你的任何投资行为，从本质上讲都是错误的。\n总之，在你对“赚钱”这件事拥有真正的自信之前，不要轻易投资。耐心等待才是唯一的可选项。\n2. 别忘了孔子的教诲\n对我来说，每当遭遇磨难时，总是会从孔子的教诲中得到许多精神的力量。\n比如，孔子说过：譬如平地，虽覆一篑，进，吾往也。\n这就意味着，1永远大于0，千万不要小看1。100次地积累1，就是100；而100次地积累0，则还是0。\n但问题在于，要做到这点需要目光长远，忍耐再忍耐。对投资家来说，最重要的关键词是“忍耐”二字，没有之一。\n很大程度上，成功是忍出来的。为了实现人生的终极目标，对我而言，没有“忍无可忍”这一回事。\n还有一句：君子无终食之间违仁，造次必于是，颠沛必于是。\n这句话同样意味深远。也就是说，修行这件事，不是做给别人看的，而是为自己负责、让自己受益。\n换言之，在很大程度上是一种“自我圆满”的途径。\n比如，弯腰捡起马路上的一个烟头，不是为了让别人夸奖，也与试图通过这种举动影响他人的行为无关，甚至这个动作完全不需要得到任何人的关注。\n你之所以这样做，只是因为渴望“自我圆满”。不是为了做给别人看，只是由于你想、而且必须这样做。因此，你只需要为自己负责即可，无需介意他人怎么想、怎么说。投资也一样。\n只有做到这些才能成为一个成功的投资家——显然，2000多年前的孔子已经把投资之道彻底参透了。实在是厉害。\n3. 即使失败40次，成功3次即可\n迄今为止，在长达半世纪的投资生涯中，我曾屡屡失败，同时也收获过几次成功。但这几次成功都是所谓的“大成功”，基本上足以奠定我在投资界的地位。\n我将这形容为“40败3胜”，3胜的分量要远超40败。\n投资界有一句格言：“所谓成功，就是减损。”我认为这句话与我的“40败3胜”理论有异曲同工之妙：只要3胜的战果足够大，便足以弥补40败的损失，并最终获得巨大收益。\n所以你要的事情就是，把这些失败的损失控制在最低限度，以便用最小的失败去迎接下一个巨大成功。\n日本是一个典型的反面教材。也许这个国家曾经成功得太多、太大、太久，日本人对“失败”这件事有着强烈的陌生感以及潜在的恐惧、排斥心理。\n在泡沫经济破裂的20世纪90年代，对于那些经营不善、行将倒闭的企业，日本政府采取了“姑息”乃至“救援”的态度，“破产清算，重新出发”这一选项从未得到真正的重视。\n\n可见“惧怕失败”的文化氛围在日本这个国家，是何其浓厚。所以日本经济才会“失去”10年、20年、30年乃至更长时间。\n对大多数日本人来说，与其面对挑战、失败和众多的不确定性，不如安享眼前唾手可得的安逸划算。\n但这种思维和行为方式背后，隐藏着一个不易察觉却极为危险的陷阱，“安逸”这个东西，绝非免费的午餐。\n希望安逸一点的想法，本身没有错。问题在于，只有身边所有人都和你有着相同的想法，“安逸”才有可能成立。\n反之，如果在你享受安逸的时候，别人却在拼命努力，那么你的“安逸”迟早会化为泡影，被其他人无情地剥夺。\n所以与自身的好恶相比，现实才是真正重要的东西。哪怕你不那么喜欢、不那么期盼现实，但现实就是现实。一定要把钱投给现实，而不是自身的感受。\n4. 做生意的诀窍：找到“竞争最小”的领域\n我是在美国亚拉巴马州一个偏僻的小镇长大的。我小时候的学习成绩相当不错。但之所以表现突出，完全是同学们糟糕的成绩衬托的。\n所以我知道，就算我是孩子们的“头儿”，也并不是因为我真的很优秀，而是因为竞争匮乏。\n当年，每个周末都有棒球比赛。赛场里有个卖可口可乐的阿姨。观赛的球迷都会到她那儿买上一瓶可乐，喝完后把空瓶子随手扔到地上。\n由于这些可乐瓶都在供货商那里付了押金，所以她只能一个一个地把地上的瓶子捡起来。这项工作看起来很辛苦，令她疲惫不堪。\n于是，5岁的我被这个意想不到的商机眷顾：捡空瓶子这件事由我替她做，作为回报，她会付给我一些报酬。每当有棒球赛，我们便会交易一次。\n从第二年开始，我有了自己的生意，在赛场里贩卖可乐和炒花生。当生意越做越大，一个人打理越发吃力时，我雇用了自己4岁的弟弟为我打工。\n这就意味着，5岁时的我还是那个阿姨的打工仔；而第二年，6岁的我已经自己当了老板，成了拥有一个正式雇员的资本家。\n这个生意持续了5年，我不但还清了为买炒制机器欠父亲的100美元，还攒下了100美元的利润。\n换言之，我人生中的第一次创业，是在6岁的时候，而且取得了圆满成功。但我之所以能做到这一点，并不是因为我有多聪明，而是竞争太弱、太少。\n所以从幼年的经历中，我得到一个极其重要的启发：那就是，无论是学业还是生意，竞争越少，取得成功的概率也就越高。\n这个发现一直到今天都令我受益匪浅。在我的投资之道中，有一个非常重要的点：\n在做企业分析、挑选潜在的投资对象时，我第一个关注的要素就是这些企业的竞争状况。谁的竞争对手少，我就会投资谁。因为这样的投资才有较高的成功率。\n关于未来，我有4点看法\n1. 世界经济重心的“东移进行时”\n从今往后，世界经济的重心将会转向东方。\n我个人格外关注的国家是中国和俄罗斯。这两个国家有几个共同点：储量惊人的自然资源、众多的人口、不群的军事力量，而且都位于世界的东方。\n重温一遍历史，1910年的大英帝国是世界唯一的支配性力量，也就是所谓的“超级大国”。但100年后的2010年，大英帝国即使没有崩溃，也处在持续的衰落中。而美国则成为唯一的超级大国。\n从1910年往前推100年，也就是1810年时，奥地利帝国是公认的欧洲乃至世界强权；由此再往前推200年，1610年时，西班牙是毋庸置疑的欧洲之王。\n而几百年前的16世纪，葡萄牙则一度达到繁荣的极致。那时的葡萄牙人走路带风、荷包满满，是欧洲大陆的人们普遍羡慕的对象。\n由此可见，强权轮流坐庄是历史的必然；大国衰弱、大国崛起、大国复兴是人类发展的常态。这是我们这个世界的基本运行规律。无论你是否喜欢，历史就是历史、事实就是事实。\n所以，今天的美国既然已经达到繁荣的顶峰，那么大概率事件从此将踏上下坡路。\n接力棒将传到谁的手里？\n我认为是中国。\n还是那句话，中国不仅有钱，还有明确的愿景，清晰地知道自己想要的是什么、想做的是什么，以及到底应该怎么做。这样的国家及其发展战略不可能不取得成功。\n我亲眼看到许多中国人每天凌晨5点钟便开始了一天的劳作，对待工作无怨无悔、尽心尽责。\n那是一种为了生存、为了过上更好的日子而不惜一切代价的姿态，而这样的姿态不可能不造就出一个伟大民族无比光明的未来。\n\n当然，100年后可能这根接力棒又会传到其他人手里；再过100年，同样的事情将再发生一次。这样的循环会永恒持续。\n唯一的区别，也许将是“王道”和“霸道”之分。\n奉行“王道”思想的中国，远在欧洲大陆的“大航海时代”揭开帷幕前，就已率先在航海事业上取得卓越成就。\n典型代表就是著名的“郑和下西洋”。航海家郑和即使七下西洋，也没有为中国攫取一寸殖民地，而是为无数新大陆的原住民们带去丝绸、瓷器和各种金银财宝。\n因为中国的传统文化信奉的不是“霸道”，而是“王道”；不是“武器”，而是“生意”；不是“零和”，而是“共赢”。即使今天，这也是中国人的思维和行为方式。\n但是，当年的欧洲列强却截然相反。他们信奉的是“霸道”、“武器”与“零和”。\n当这些国家的船队借助古老中国的发明——指南针，来到一片又一片别人的土地时，他们拿出的不是丝绸，而是枪支，“你们的地盘，从今往后就属于我们了。你们所有人都要给我们做奴隶”。\n他们用冰冷的枪口指着当地人的脑袋，面无表情地威胁着。尽管后者的回答是“不”，却没人能抵挡现代工业文明的淫威。\n遗憾的是，这种“零和”与“霸道”思维一直到今天依然在欧美国家的政客中占据统治地位。\n他们信奉的依然是强权，是武力的高低，是“顺我者昌，逆我者亡”的世界观。没有几个政客真正理解或愿意相信中国的“王道”思想。\n这种事物认知方式的根本差异，无疑埋下了不少矛盾与冲突的种子。但历史必将给出唯一的正解。还是那句话，这是客观规律，不以人的意志为转移。\n2. 不向外国人开放的国家，必然衰弱\n一个国家是否能够兴旺发达，与治理方式无关，只与是否开放有关。\n现在美国一流的科技企业中相当多的CEO、高管及研发部门的骨干人才都是移民，特别是亚洲国家的移民。\n这也是这些跨国公司能够如此强大，如此长时间地称雄世界市场至关重要的原因。\n“苹果之父”乔布斯的经历就是一个典型。这位美国的创新之王，是叙利亚移民的后代。\n\n一个非常朴素的问题：吸收大量移民的国家会发生什么？\n很简单。远离自己的国土、千里移民而来的人们，大多都会拼死工作，想尽办法为自己和家人创造更为富裕美好的生活。\n这件事一定会发生。否则，抛弃早已习惯的舒适区，孤注一掷地投入一个完全陌生的环境，便也没有了任何意义。\n为了让子女接受更好的教育，每个移民都会拼命挣钱；除此之外，他们还渴望享受生活，会用自己的血汗钱购买汽车、家用电器等；当然，还会用自己的储蓄做首付，从银行贷款买房。\n把上述种种场景联结起来，就是一本生动的经济学教科书。\n换言之，移民们的勤勉、消费与欲望，将成为一个国家或地区强大的经济发动机。这本身就是一种优质生产力的体现。\n我认为，无论时代如何变化，让移民向往的、愿意抛弃一切前往的国家，一定会繁荣昌盛。所以国门是开放还是封闭，是搞外向型还是内向型经济，才是真正决定一个国家命运的基石。\n3. 如果有人“忽悠”你投资比特币，万万要小心\n我一直认为，区块链将是一个具有划时代意义的创新技术，将从方方面面深刻改变我们现在所熟悉的一切。\n但人们开始担心一个源于区块链技术的“大规模失业时代”即将来临。\n那么，事情的真相又如何呢？我认为，区块链确实有可能消灭许多工作岗位，却未必会带来所谓的“大规模失业时代”。\n想当年，计算机的诞生也曾夺走许多人的工作。可另一方面，又创造了大量的新机会。起码，“程序编码员”这个工种今天已经没有人会感到陌生。\n所以，区块链技术的普及及其周边产业的勃兴给我们带来的不可能只有输家，还会有大量赢家。\n重点是，许多暂时的输家一旦适应这项技术，也依然能跻身赢家行列。前提是真正明白区块链到底是个什么东西。否则无论身边出现多少赢家，这份幸运也落不到你头上。\n比如，为了赶区块链的时髦，现在有许多人热衷投资各种“虚拟加密数字货币”。\n但讽刺的是，他们投入了如此多的真金白银，却连支撑这种数字货币的区块链技术到底是什么都一无所知。性质无异于赌博。\n至于我个人，无论是比特币，还是什么这个“币”、那个“币”，我一律不感兴趣，一律不投资。\n现如今，包括比特币在内，各种虚拟加密数字货币的市场价格，普遍存在着波动幅度过于剧烈的问题，爆赚血赔都在一瞬间。而具有这种特质的商品往往都极不靠谱，投资价值极低。\n\n我个人认为，即便是今天大名鼎鼎、备受追捧的比特币，最后恐怕也难逃厄运，将被市场无情驱逐。\n我隐隐有种感觉，今天那些热衷“虚拟数字货币”交易的人，好像觉得自己比政府还要聪明、还有能力，可以将一种未经国家机器授权的所谓“货币”，玩弄于股掌之上而不用承担后果。何止不承担后果，甚至还能赚大钱。\n但别忘了，国家机器毕竟是国家机器，法律毕竟是法律，游戏规则毕竟是游戏规则。试图与国家叫板，无异于螳臂当车。\n所以不妨想想看，如果政府明令禁止交易、使用虚拟数字货币的话，会发生什么？绝对不可小觑这种可能性。因为没有哪个国家会容忍主权货币的地位遭到挑战，那将会引发一个国家金融秩序的巨大混乱。\n普通数字货币和主权数字货币是两码事。换言之，主权数字货币是政府行为，是国家机器的产物，而比特币等一般数字货币则不具备这一性质。\n所以把政府对区块链技术和主权数字货币的支持，视为比特币和其他虚拟数字货币的投资机会，绝对是一种天大的误解。如果有人用这个说辞来忽悠你，你要万万多加小心。\n4. 切记：被视为“常识”的事，千万别信\n人们对所谓“常识”太过痴迷，以至于到了执迷不悟的程度。\n对绝大多数人来说，但凡不是在电视或互联网上广为人知、广被接受的东西，他们是信不过的。可见“常识”的厉害。这个东西具有强大的洗脑功能，让人们只相信那些大多数人相信的东西。\n如果你心里有一个想法，而这个想法有违一般的常识，那么当你把这个想法告诉别人时，恐怕没人会相信你。\n违背常识的东西就像一个怪物，所以违背常识的话在大多数人听来，都不像是人类的声音，而与夜晚的狼嚎更为相似。\n这是人性。所以，那些愿意倾听、乃至相信与众不同的观点的人，堪称这个世界的稀罕物。\n再强调一遍：所有我们以为的“常识”，每隔15年大概率必会推倒重来，变成“非常识”。\n假设你生活在1930年相对富裕和平的日本，会想到1945年的日本因为发动侵略战争而变成“一片焦土”吗？\n假设你生活在1998年受到亚洲金融危机波及的中国，又能想到2013年的中国是如此繁荣吗？\n如果有时光机器，可以让人们回到15年前，当被告知15年后的世界是什么样子的时候，又有几个人会真正相信？\n可历史就是历史。历史一再地证明了这一点：第二次世界大战、柏林墙的倒塌、中国经济的迅速崛起……\n\n所以以我的人生经验看，真理往往掌握在少数人手中，这就意味着多数人的话往往不正确、不可信。\n从无数的失败中，我最大的收获之一，就是彻悟了“务必独立思考”这件事。不人云亦云，完全用自己的脑子思考问题这件事，从来就不简单。\n曾几何时，稚嫩的我也曾试图仰仗他人的建议与学识来进行投资，可我发现，即便是从真正的高手那里得到的信息，往往也会带来不同的投资结果：给我建议的高手会赢，而我却会输。\n没错，哪怕是投资同一个标的，别人能赢，而你却未必。因为心态、技巧甚至价值观的不同，都会影响人们的具体行为；而不同的行为必然会带来不同的结果。\n所以，独立思考的重要性在于：让自己置身事内，而不是事外；让自己成为内行，而不是外行。\n有鉴于此，在自己孩子的教育方面，我最重视的一句话就是：\n“用你自己的脑袋思考。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911918983,"gmtCreate":1664112696242,"gmtModify":1676537392038,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"j","listText":"j","text":"j","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911918983","repostId":"2269494309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269494309","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664085642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269494309?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google: Here's The Worst Case Scenario","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269494309","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine giant however depressing the current macro narrative may be. Having repeatedly received questions as to what exactly will happen to shares of Google in a recession, I've decided to come up with an analysis of an absolute worst case scenario for 2023.</p><h2>Digital advertising in 2022</h2><p>It's important to first understand the state of the digital advertising sector to get a sense of how things are progressing in a post-Covid environment. While all players in the space saw positive top-line growth in 1Q22, challenges began to surface in Q2 as companies lapped tough 2021 comps. More importantly, the outlook provided by most management teams was frankly terrifying.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88511c646d4175530a996f92cfa8a85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company, consensus estimates, Albert Lin</p><p></p><p>Meta (META), the largest social media platform in the world, reported negative revenue growth in Q2 and provided Q3 revenue guidance that was 10% below Street estimates as management pointed to worsening macro conditions. Snap's (SNAP) revenue growth fell off a cliff in Q2 as CEO Spiegel cited a challenging macro from inflation to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and did not provide Q3 guidance. While Roku's (ROKU) ad revenue grew 26% in Q2, guidance for the current quarter was >20% below consensus as the team blamed on a weak scatter market and subsequently canceled its full year 2022 outlook. The Trade Desk (TTD) was a blossom in the dessert with 30% growth in Q2 and a beat in Q3 guide was a major surprise to the Street, but that doesn't make Q4 any more predictable given the current economic outlook.</p><p>On the bottom end of the marketing funnel where advertisers are more focused on conversion over impression, Amazon Advertising (AMZN) proved to be highly resilient as consumers are literally standing in front of sellers on the e-commerce site. As much of a giant as Google is, Q2 Search revenue still grew 14% following 24% in Q1. Predicting 2H22 growth was a difficult exercise for analysts as management didn't provide quantitative guides, so the Street isn't getting its hopes up as Search revenue grew 44%/36% in 3Q/4Q21.</p><p>In short, what one can easily conclude for the digital advertising space (as well as for most industries) is that winter is here, and the setup for 2023 doesn't look so good as the economy is heading into a recession if not already in one. The question now becomes: what will Google look like in a 2023 recession?</p><h2>Coming up with the worst case scenario</h2><p>While there are no perfect methods to accurately forecast Google's top and bottom line in a recession (since we have no idea how bad things will be), we can first borrow from history that Google obviously experienced a meaningful decline in revenue growth during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis driven by indiscriminate mortgage lending in the United States of America. Throughout the crisis, Google saw its quarterly revenue growth decelerate materially from +42% in 1Q08 to +18% in 4Q08 and eventually bottomed out at +3% in 2Q09 before re-accelerating to +7% in 3Q09 and +17% 4Q09. For the entire 2008 and 2009, however, revenue still grew 9% and 8%, a highly respectable feat as the world was literally falling apart.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762c70d4d4202f1382880c6c8ff279e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>As bleak as things were, what was frankly a positive surprise to investors was that Google was able to protect its operating margin by containing costs throughout the global recession. While year-over-year top-line growth slowed from over 40% to single digits, changes in operating expenses were largely in line with revenue. OPEX actually declined for two consecutive quarters in 2009 and only ramped up in Q4 when revenue growth was back to double digits.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0db9de48c20d2d341cd29315ee5177f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>Now that we have a basic understanding of how Google fared in the 2008 recession, we can assume with some degree of confidence that Google will at least be able to demonstrate flexibility on the expense side of the equation should top-line growth begin to slow materially in the next (or current) recession.</p><p>The question now is how much revenue growth will fall. Since digital advertising was still in its infancy back in 2008, it's conceivable that digital ad budgets will likely experience a bigger impact today given the >65% penetration vs. 12% back then. For this reason, we can probably imagine a worst case scenario of 0% revenue growth in 2023 vs. +8% in 2009. Given Google is still very much an advertising company, we will focus exclusively on the Google Services segment (90% of revenue) for now.</p><p>The current 2022 consensus calls for Google Services revenue of ~$264 billion, which implies an 11% YoY growth on an exceptional 41% growth in 2021. Operating income is estimated to come in at ~$95 billion for an EBIT margin of 36% vs. 39% in 2021. With an effective tax rate of 16%, Google Services should generate net income of ~$80 billion and EPS of $6.09 in 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0b914de067418218358e4b8bf67149\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>Based on how Google managed costs during the 2008 recession, I'd expect OPEX growth to stay flat just like revenue, leading to an EBIT margin of 36% in 2023. Already, CEO Sundar Pichai has indicated that he wants to make Google 20% more efficient. Assume the same 16% tax rate, this should come down to an estimated EPS of $6.26. The ~3% increase in EPS primarily comes from buybacks, for which Google has plenty of financial firepower. At the end of 2Q22, Google had $58.9 billion remaining in its buyback program after approving $70 billion for share repurchase in April 2022. There's $125 billion of cash on the balance sheet, which indicates a strong possibility for more buybacks in the future.</p><p>During the Global Financial Crisis, Google's P/E multiple contracted from 33x in 4Q07 to 12x in 4Q08. Applying the same trough multiple of 12x, we can arrive at a per share value of $75 for Google Services in 2023. At this price, markets should have sufficiently priced in a full blown recession and investors would theoretically be paying $0 for Google Cloud and Other Bets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af898d136c328d1e49059b6da2263234\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p><p>It's unclear how Google Cloud will perform in a recession given cloud migration is more of a structural vs. cyclical story, but suppose Google Cloud grows 30% in 2022 and growth gets cut in half to 15% in 2023, Cloud revenue is estimated at $28.7 billion or $2.24 on a per share basis next year. Applying a depressed 2x P/S multiple should give us a value of $4 a share. Taken altogether, <b>we should have a worst case scenario of $79 for Google's shares in a recessionary environment.</b></p><h2>Final thoughts</h2><p>The bad news is Google's stock may have a 20% downside if markets are to price in a full-blown recession. The good news is Google was able to demonstrate strong resiliency in managing its bottom line in the last economic recession. Net-net, I continue to see Google as a high-quality company that should fare relatively better than most in this recession and would remain on the buy side to capitalize on further price weakness going forward.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google: Here's The Worst Case Scenario</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle: Here's The Worst Case Scenario\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-25 14:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542863-google-worst-case-scenario","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2269494309","content_text":"I've previously written a number of articles discussing the resiliency of Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) business during a recession and why investors should not worry about the search engine giant however depressing the current macro narrative may be. Having repeatedly received questions as to what exactly will happen to shares of Google in a recession, I've decided to come up with an analysis of an absolute worst case scenario for 2023.Digital advertising in 2022It's important to first understand the state of the digital advertising sector to get a sense of how things are progressing in a post-Covid environment. While all players in the space saw positive top-line growth in 1Q22, challenges began to surface in Q2 as companies lapped tough 2021 comps. More importantly, the outlook provided by most management teams was frankly terrifying.Company, consensus estimates, Albert LinMeta (META), the largest social media platform in the world, reported negative revenue growth in Q2 and provided Q3 revenue guidance that was 10% below Street estimates as management pointed to worsening macro conditions. Snap's (SNAP) revenue growth fell off a cliff in Q2 as CEO Spiegel cited a challenging macro from inflation to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and did not provide Q3 guidance. While Roku's (ROKU) ad revenue grew 26% in Q2, guidance for the current quarter was >20% below consensus as the team blamed on a weak scatter market and subsequently canceled its full year 2022 outlook. The Trade Desk (TTD) was a blossom in the dessert with 30% growth in Q2 and a beat in Q3 guide was a major surprise to the Street, but that doesn't make Q4 any more predictable given the current economic outlook.On the bottom end of the marketing funnel where advertisers are more focused on conversion over impression, Amazon Advertising (AMZN) proved to be highly resilient as consumers are literally standing in front of sellers on the e-commerce site. As much of a giant as Google is, Q2 Search revenue still grew 14% following 24% in Q1. Predicting 2H22 growth was a difficult exercise for analysts as management didn't provide quantitative guides, so the Street isn't getting its hopes up as Search revenue grew 44%/36% in 3Q/4Q21.In short, what one can easily conclude for the digital advertising space (as well as for most industries) is that winter is here, and the setup for 2023 doesn't look so good as the economy is heading into a recession if not already in one. The question now becomes: what will Google look like in a 2023 recession?Coming up with the worst case scenarioWhile there are no perfect methods to accurately forecast Google's top and bottom line in a recession (since we have no idea how bad things will be), we can first borrow from history that Google obviously experienced a meaningful decline in revenue growth during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis driven by indiscriminate mortgage lending in the United States of America. Throughout the crisis, Google saw its quarterly revenue growth decelerate materially from +42% in 1Q08 to +18% in 4Q08 and eventually bottomed out at +3% in 2Q09 before re-accelerating to +7% in 3Q09 and +17% 4Q09. For the entire 2008 and 2009, however, revenue still grew 9% and 8%, a highly respectable feat as the world was literally falling apart.Company data, Albert LinAs bleak as things were, what was frankly a positive surprise to investors was that Google was able to protect its operating margin by containing costs throughout the global recession. While year-over-year top-line growth slowed from over 40% to single digits, changes in operating expenses were largely in line with revenue. OPEX actually declined for two consecutive quarters in 2009 and only ramped up in Q4 when revenue growth was back to double digits.Company data, Albert LinNow that we have a basic understanding of how Google fared in the 2008 recession, we can assume with some degree of confidence that Google will at least be able to demonstrate flexibility on the expense side of the equation should top-line growth begin to slow materially in the next (or current) recession.The question now is how much revenue growth will fall. Since digital advertising was still in its infancy back in 2008, it's conceivable that digital ad budgets will likely experience a bigger impact today given the >65% penetration vs. 12% back then. For this reason, we can probably imagine a worst case scenario of 0% revenue growth in 2023 vs. +8% in 2009. Given Google is still very much an advertising company, we will focus exclusively on the Google Services segment (90% of revenue) for now.The current 2022 consensus calls for Google Services revenue of ~$264 billion, which implies an 11% YoY growth on an exceptional 41% growth in 2021. Operating income is estimated to come in at ~$95 billion for an EBIT margin of 36% vs. 39% in 2021. With an effective tax rate of 16%, Google Services should generate net income of ~$80 billion and EPS of $6.09 in 2022.Company data, Albert LinBased on how Google managed costs during the 2008 recession, I'd expect OPEX growth to stay flat just like revenue, leading to an EBIT margin of 36% in 2023. Already, CEO Sundar Pichai has indicated that he wants to make Google 20% more efficient. Assume the same 16% tax rate, this should come down to an estimated EPS of $6.26. The ~3% increase in EPS primarily comes from buybacks, for which Google has plenty of financial firepower. At the end of 2Q22, Google had $58.9 billion remaining in its buyback program after approving $70 billion for share repurchase in April 2022. There's $125 billion of cash on the balance sheet, which indicates a strong possibility for more buybacks in the future.During the Global Financial Crisis, Google's P/E multiple contracted from 33x in 4Q07 to 12x in 4Q08. Applying the same trough multiple of 12x, we can arrive at a per share value of $75 for Google Services in 2023. At this price, markets should have sufficiently priced in a full blown recession and investors would theoretically be paying $0 for Google Cloud and Other Bets.Company data, Albert LinIt's unclear how Google Cloud will perform in a recession given cloud migration is more of a structural vs. cyclical story, but suppose Google Cloud grows 30% in 2022 and growth gets cut in half to 15% in 2023, Cloud revenue is estimated at $28.7 billion or $2.24 on a per share basis next year. Applying a depressed 2x P/S multiple should give us a value of $4 a share. Taken altogether, we should have a worst case scenario of $79 for Google's shares in a recessionary environment.Final thoughtsThe bad news is Google's stock may have a 20% downside if markets are to price in a full-blown recession. The good news is Google was able to demonstrate strong resiliency in managing its bottom line in the last economic recession. Net-net, I continue to see Google as a high-quality company that should fare relatively better than most in this recession and would remain on the buy side to capitalize on further price weakness going forward.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124021710,"gmtCreate":1624709506930,"gmtModify":1703843974020,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124021710","repostId":"1192755033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115638123,"gmtCreate":1622983336062,"gmtModify":1704194058451,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" t","listText":" t","text":"t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115638123","repostId":"2141285413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141285413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622971587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141285413?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 17:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141285413","media":"节点财经","summary":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二","content":"<p>从2001年至今，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。</p>\n<p>如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。</p>\n<p>近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。亏损再一次加剧，房多多似乎正在面临全线“破防”？</p>\n<p> / 01 /</p>\n<p>故事破防</p>\n<p>“房产SaaS第一股”如何讲下去？</p>\n<p>2010年时，房多多的三位创始人认为互联网虽然发展如火如荼，但是距离两个行业很远，其一是房地产，其二是医疗。三位创始人中，曾熙和段毅都是房产销售出身，通过互联网改造房地产市场就成为他们创业的方向，房多多应运而生。</p>\n<p>房多多能快速成长，与当时行业的环境有极大的关系。当时，中国房地产交易效率极低，互联网对房地产行业的渗透还处在非常弱的阶段。行业有痛点和改造的需求，房多多以“通过互联网化的工具为经纪人提高效率”为初衷，刚好补上了这个产业链上所欠缺的环节。</p>\n<p>在发展最初阶段，房多多通过向买房者卖优惠券的方式来实现盈利，即通过与开发商合作获得购房优惠券，然后把优惠券通过经纪人卖给客户，与经纪人进行分成。这种模式延续了4、5年后，行业发生了重要的变化——房子好卖了，不需要打折也有人抢着买。</p>\n<p>于是房多多开始向开发商收佣金，由经纪人带客，成交以后给房多多付佣金。时至今日，这仍然是房多多最主要的收入来源。</p>\n<p>近几年，“三道红线”的高压之下，房地产行业逐步走进存量时代。房多多打出了自己新的标签：“SaaS”服务。简单理解，就是帮助开发商实现数字化，打通经纪人的数字化平台。也就是说房多多在做出了平台之后，开始做标准化的产品，提供To B服务。</p>\n<p>房多多联席CEO曾熙曾表示，“房多多就是想做一家既帮助上游开发商实现互联网化的SaaS服务公司，又帮助下游经纪公司实现SaaS化的服务公司。”</p>\n<p>讲出这个“故事”后，房多多从一家房产交易平台摇身一变成了科技企业。2019年，房多多在纳斯达克上市时，就顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的超级光环。</p>\n<p>但这个“故事”并不是那么好讲，光环背后阴影面不小。近几年，房多多一直被业内质疑SaaS的属性。原因是，从收入结构看，房多多佣金及手续费占比长期维持在90%以上，包含SaaS服务的创新业务收入占比不足10%。</p>\n<p>2017-2020年，佣金及手续费收入及创新业务收入占比分别为91.9%、8.1%；89.1%、10.9%；96.0%、4.0%；90.7%、9.3%。2017年到2020年，创新业务收入分别为1.46亿、2.48亿、1.44亿、2.28亿，可以看出，SaaS服务所带来的营收并不高，且占比很小。房多多还是一家靠佣金赚钱的公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797e193abbaff10e77690a5e46d9d36c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：房多多财报、wind</p>\n<p>美国房产科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>也以SaaS为核心，但营收中，SaaS工具及解决方案贡献收入接近70%。可见房多多距离自己提出的“房地产淘宝”目标还有相当的距离。</p>\n<p>去年四季度，房多多将旗下SaaS全面升级为服务产业上下游全场景数字化营销的房云SaaS，帮助开发商在线精准直连、快速启动经纪人，试图通过这一方式一边提升房地产交易的房源和客源的匹配效率，另一边控制营销成本。但从刚刚发布的一季度财报看，并未如达到房多多的期待。</p>\n<p> / 02 /</p>\n<p>盈利破防</p>\n<p>上市即高光，盈利能力一路下滑</p>\n<p>近期，房多多公布了最新的季度财报。财报显示，2021年一季度，房多多营收为2.910亿元，净亏损为1.02亿元。非美国会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，房多多2021年第一季度经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。</p>\n<p>如果将上市作为分水岭，那么上市前，房多多的营收呈逐年增长，而自上市后，房多多的亏损正在不断扩大。</p>\n<p>上市前的房多多，2017-2019年营收分别为17.985亿元、22.822亿元、36亿元。而上市后则开始走下坡路，从2020年第一季度开始，单季度营收分别为2.721亿元、7.377亿元、8.191亿元、6.224亿元。同比分别下滑了-58.52%、-22.20%、-13.59%和-40.57%。</p>\n<p>今年一季度，房多多的营收更下滑至2.91亿元。房多多非但没有借助资本市场腾飞，反而一个下冲，归母净利润负增长，从2020年第一季度至2021年第一季度，房多多归母净利润分别为-1.36亿元、-1399万、2191万元、-9176万元、-1.02亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82dd656d8813a53e71e2eaf71afcdac4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：房多多财报、wind</p>\n<p>业绩下滑原因是疫情吗？</p>\n<p>虽然疫情有所影响，但房多多营收的下降似乎不能完全扣在疫情上。国家统计局数据显示，2020年，全国商品房销售额接近17.4万亿元，同比增长了8.7%。同期，房多多平台上促成的房屋交易额下降了14%。</p>\n<p>同一时间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>营业收入为705亿元，同比增长53.2%；全年净利润达27.78亿元，首次实现美国会计准则下的全年盈利。而截至2020年末，贝壳GTV（全年平台总交易额）突破3.5万亿元，GTV增长至3.0倍。</p>\n<p>排除外界因素影响，就剩下另一个至关重要的因素——行业竞争的加剧。</p>\n<p>房多多一直自诩为独立第三方平台，但贝壳、安居客的出现打破这样的平衡。在左晖决定做贝壳时，业内都指责他既做裁判，又做运动员，但从结果看，左晖的选择是正确的。当初，责难声最重的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>，如今也将旗下的安居客向同样的方向发展。</p>\n<p>对手们实力强劲，还舍得大手笔投放，通过补贴和佣金迅速占领市场，成为贝壳们快速占领用户心智的方法，但房多多认为恶性补贴不会带来可持续的增长，便放弃了支付补贴的决定。而这一决定让房多多在业务上承压。曾熙也表示，不参与恶性补贴给公司带来了短暂的压力。</p>\n<p>2020年，房多多的交易规模和收入均出现下滑。2020年，房多多促成的总闭环交易GMV(交易总额)1811亿元，同比下降14.0%；实现收入24.5亿元，同比下降31.9%。</p>\n<p>虽然放弃补贴，但是眼看着贝壳市值已经达到644.39亿美元、正在朝向千亿市值进发，房多多也并非不急，去年第四季度，房多多开始大规模的进行品牌推广和宣传，销售费用达到0.32亿元，增幅高达88%，看上去不多，但要知道，而其全年销售费用也只有0.38亿元。</p>\n<p>如今，房地产商也开始在线卖楼，加上互联网巨头的加入，房多多不得不变。此前，房多多一直强调独立第三方的属性，段毅对外界承诺，“做独立平台，不自雇一个经纪人，不开一个线下店；捍卫每一个平台商户的正当利益；不侵占任何一个商户的私有数据。”</p>\n<p>但潜移默化中，这一定位也在改变。去年11月，房多多宣布入股中原集团旗下加盟服务运营平台原萃，借由入股，房多多完成了由线上到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>的一体化转型之际，但也丢掉了“独立第三方平台”的属性。</p>\n<p>放弃“独立”，是为了有更强的筹码参与竞争，拥抱更大的市场，这是房多多当前想要扭亏最根本的手段和方法。</p>\n<p> / 03 /</p>\n<p>估值“破防”</p>\n<p>竞争加剧、资本市场不买账</p>\n<p>当初顶着高光上市，源自二级市场投资人对SaaS类项目的追捧。尤其是在美国市场，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、Slack都是这一领域的超级明星。SaaS与产业相结合，给了科技含金量较低的房地产一个充满想象力的明天。</p>\n<p>房多多的SaaS业务跑了几个季度后，业务质地浮上水面。2019年11月，房多多上市时的发行价为13美元，截至6月4日收盘，报价为3.17美元，跌去超过7成。</p>\n<p>SaaS相关的创新服务业务发展几年仍然不见成效，当前，房多多面临两个问题，</p>\n<p>其一、创新服务是否还会持续发力？</p>\n<p>创始团队给出了肯定的答案。曾熙曾表示，房多多有两个核心优势，第一是聚集了中国最大的经纪人群体且高频在线；第二是过去十年积累了提供系统解决方案的能力。“基于这两个优势，我们会坚定不移地去推动开发商更快地上线，帮助开发商建设上线所需要的系统和运营服务。”</p>\n<p>其二、房多多所拥有的核心能力壁垒有多高？</p>\n<p>业内做服务的不少，比如贝壳。目前，贝壳的生态内已经有将近300个品牌，4.7万家门店和近50万经纪人入驻。大量的数据让贝壳拥有强大的数据体系，可以为平台上的经纪人、门店经理还有平台服务人员进行服务，将作业流程线上化。从整体看，这种服务仍然是在房地产交易范围内的线上化操作系统。</p>\n<p>另外一类比较具备代表性的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>。明源云从企业ERP起家，如今转型为营销SaaS服务商。主要服务对象就是房地产企业。</p>\n<p>可以说目前，主流的传统房地产企业都曾经使用过明源云的ERP系统。</p>\n<p>明源云的SaaS业务主要细分为云客、云链、云采购、云空间等，涵盖房地产开发商运行的各个环节。其中云客（也就是营销端SaaS系统）在疫情环境下增长迅猛。2020年，明源云迅速推出了掌上售楼，集合线上传播、数字展厅、线上开盘等功能。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，2020年第四季度，房多多也推出房云SaaS。在功能上，房云SaaS旗下自渠宝产品上线门店<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>推荐、商户动态、销售员网店、高意向访客触达提醒等全新功能，帮助案场销售在B端快速启动经纪商户。同时，私域营销工具也同步上线至房云APP，支持开发商发起直播、短视频获客、楼盘一键生成VR、C端用户在线带看等新玩法。</p>\n<p>大家的玩法相似，竞争也无疑会更加激烈。</p>\n<p>从产业端看，有贝壳、安居客等巨头，从SaaS服务看，还有从ERP转型而来的明源云和一众中小玩家。</p>\n<p>房多多还有机会吗？从前者看，房地产经纪呈现强者恒强的互联网属性，规模越大，则实力将越强；而从后者看，2020 年百强房企中，明源云合作了 97 家，客单价从 370 万提升到 610 万元。两个方面总结下来，竞争激烈的行业中，房多多的成绩单算不上优等生，未来需要更强的团队执行力和更快的速度，方有反超的机会。</p>\n<p>今年，房多多发生了一项重要人事变化，刘天旸正式担任房多多高级副总裁。而这位新任的副总裁，目前还任中原集团董事、中原地产（中国内地）副总裁、原萃总裁和几亩置业总裁。</p>\n<p>房多多是原萃的大股东，刘天旸的加盟有何深意？据了解，刘天旸将负责二手房及创新业务，包括二手房交易事业部、挺好住和好房汇业务部。</p>\n<p>二手房，极有可能是房多多继创新业务外下一个业务重点。</p>\n<p>2020年，房多多二手房累计闭环GMV为731亿，同比增长15.26%。而在2020年全年，全国二手房交易金额7.3万亿，创下了自2015年以来最大值的交易额。</p>\n<p>早在2014年，房多多曾投入了大量的资源在二手业务上。但业务发展并不顺利，房多多在2016年把二手房的业务全面地收缩掉，回到了新房主赛道。这一次，重提二手房业务，房多多真的准备好了吗？</p>\n<p>当前，房多多的市值为2.63亿美元，贝壳市值是其245倍。4月份，安居客向港交所提交了上市申请，房产交易市场将迎来又一个巨无霸。面临“破防”的房多多，需要更多变化应对挑战。</p>","source":"jdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“破防”的房多多，还有哪些资本好故事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 17:26 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml><strong>节点财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。\n近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"DUO":"房多多"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2021-06-06/doc-ikqciyzi7997555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141285413","content_text":"从2001年至今，房多多刚好走过了10年时间。从最初借鉴Groupon模式启程，几经演变后，房多多顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的光环上市。\n如今，光环开始褪去，房多多的自身的定位、持续的亏损以及二级市场的表现等多个方面出现了不利因素——SaaS故事“不灵”、资本市场股价不温不火、行业的竞争也在加剧之外，房多多的盈利能力转弱。\n近期，房多多发布了今年一季度财报，财报显示，房多多经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。亏损再一次加剧，房多多似乎正在面临全线“破防”？\n / 01 /\n故事破防\n“房产SaaS第一股”如何讲下去？\n2010年时，房多多的三位创始人认为互联网虽然发展如火如荼，但是距离两个行业很远，其一是房地产，其二是医疗。三位创始人中，曾熙和段毅都是房产销售出身，通过互联网改造房地产市场就成为他们创业的方向，房多多应运而生。\n房多多能快速成长，与当时行业的环境有极大的关系。当时，中国房地产交易效率极低，互联网对房地产行业的渗透还处在非常弱的阶段。行业有痛点和改造的需求，房多多以“通过互联网化的工具为经纪人提高效率”为初衷，刚好补上了这个产业链上所欠缺的环节。\n在发展最初阶段，房多多通过向买房者卖优惠券的方式来实现盈利，即通过与开发商合作获得购房优惠券，然后把优惠券通过经纪人卖给客户，与经纪人进行分成。这种模式延续了4、5年后，行业发生了重要的变化——房子好卖了，不需要打折也有人抢着买。\n于是房多多开始向开发商收佣金，由经纪人带客，成交以后给房多多付佣金。时至今日，这仍然是房多多最主要的收入来源。\n近几年，“三道红线”的高压之下，房地产行业逐步走进存量时代。房多多打出了自己新的标签：“SaaS”服务。简单理解，就是帮助开发商实现数字化，打通经纪人的数字化平台。也就是说房多多在做出了平台之后，开始做标准化的产品，提供To B服务。\n房多多联席CEO曾熙曾表示，“房多多就是想做一家既帮助上游开发商实现互联网化的SaaS服务公司，又帮助下游经纪公司实现SaaS化的服务公司。”\n讲出这个“故事”后，房多多从一家房产交易平台摇身一变成了科技企业。2019年，房多多在纳斯达克上市时，就顶着“产业互联网SaaS第一股”的超级光环。\n但这个“故事”并不是那么好讲，光环背后阴影面不小。近几年，房多多一直被业内质疑SaaS的属性。原因是，从收入结构看，房多多佣金及手续费占比长期维持在90%以上，包含SaaS服务的创新业务收入占比不足10%。\n2017-2020年，佣金及手续费收入及创新业务收入占比分别为91.9%、8.1%；89.1%、10.9%；96.0%、4.0%；90.7%、9.3%。2017年到2020年，创新业务收入分别为1.46亿、2.48亿、1.44亿、2.28亿，可以看出，SaaS服务所带来的营收并不高，且占比很小。房多多还是一家靠佣金赚钱的公司。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n美国房产科技公司Zillow也以SaaS为核心，但营收中，SaaS工具及解决方案贡献收入接近70%。可见房多多距离自己提出的“房地产淘宝”目标还有相当的距离。\n去年四季度，房多多将旗下SaaS全面升级为服务产业上下游全场景数字化营销的房云SaaS，帮助开发商在线精准直连、快速启动经纪人，试图通过这一方式一边提升房地产交易的房源和客源的匹配效率，另一边控制营销成本。但从刚刚发布的一季度财报看，并未如达到房多多的期待。\n / 02 /\n盈利破防\n上市即高光，盈利能力一路下滑\n近期，房多多公布了最新的季度财报。财报显示，2021年一季度，房多多营收为2.910亿元，净亏损为1.02亿元。非美国会计准则（Non-GAAP）下，房多多2021年第一季度经调整后的净亏损为9300万元。\n如果将上市作为分水岭，那么上市前，房多多的营收呈逐年增长，而自上市后，房多多的亏损正在不断扩大。\n上市前的房多多，2017-2019年营收分别为17.985亿元、22.822亿元、36亿元。而上市后则开始走下坡路，从2020年第一季度开始，单季度营收分别为2.721亿元、7.377亿元、8.191亿元、6.224亿元。同比分别下滑了-58.52%、-22.20%、-13.59%和-40.57%。\n今年一季度，房多多的营收更下滑至2.91亿元。房多多非但没有借助资本市场腾飞，反而一个下冲，归母净利润负增长，从2020年第一季度至2021年第一季度，房多多归母净利润分别为-1.36亿元、-1399万、2191万元、-9176万元、-1.02亿元。\n\n数据来源：房多多财报、wind\n业绩下滑原因是疫情吗？\n虽然疫情有所影响，但房多多营收的下降似乎不能完全扣在疫情上。国家统计局数据显示，2020年，全国商品房销售额接近17.4万亿元，同比增长了8.7%。同期，房多多平台上促成的房屋交易额下降了14%。\n同一时间，贝壳营业收入为705亿元，同比增长53.2%；全年净利润达27.78亿元，首次实现美国会计准则下的全年盈利。而截至2020年末，贝壳GTV（全年平台总交易额）突破3.5万亿元，GTV增长至3.0倍。\n排除外界因素影响，就剩下另一个至关重要的因素——行业竞争的加剧。\n房多多一直自诩为独立第三方平台，但贝壳、安居客的出现打破这样的平衡。在左晖决定做贝壳时，业内都指责他既做裁判，又做运动员，但从结果看，左晖的选择是正确的。当初，责难声最重的58同城，如今也将旗下的安居客向同样的方向发展。\n对手们实力强劲，还舍得大手笔投放，通过补贴和佣金迅速占领市场，成为贝壳们快速占领用户心智的方法，但房多多认为恶性补贴不会带来可持续的增长，便放弃了支付补贴的决定。而这一决定让房多多在业务上承压。曾熙也表示，不参与恶性补贴给公司带来了短暂的压力。\n2020年，房多多的交易规模和收入均出现下滑。2020年，房多多促成的总闭环交易GMV(交易总额)1811亿元，同比下降14.0%；实现收入24.5亿元，同比下降31.9%。\n虽然放弃补贴，但是眼看着贝壳市值已经达到644.39亿美元、正在朝向千亿市值进发，房多多也并非不急，去年第四季度，房多多开始大规模的进行品牌推广和宣传，销售费用达到0.32亿元，增幅高达88%，看上去不多，但要知道，而其全年销售费用也只有0.38亿元。\n如今，房地产商也开始在线卖楼，加上互联网巨头的加入，房多多不得不变。此前，房多多一直强调独立第三方的属性，段毅对外界承诺，“做独立平台，不自雇一个经纪人，不开一个线下店；捍卫每一个平台商户的正当利益；不侵占任何一个商户的私有数据。”\n但潜移默化中，这一定位也在改变。去年11月，房多多宣布入股中原集团旗下加盟服务运营平台原萃，借由入股，房多多完成了由线上到线上线下的一体化转型之际，但也丢掉了“独立第三方平台”的属性。\n放弃“独立”，是为了有更强的筹码参与竞争，拥抱更大的市场，这是房多多当前想要扭亏最根本的手段和方法。\n / 03 /\n估值“破防”\n竞争加剧、资本市场不买账\n当初顶着高光上市，源自二级市场投资人对SaaS类项目的追捧。尤其是在美国市场，Salesforce、Zoom、Slack都是这一领域的超级明星。SaaS与产业相结合，给了科技含金量较低的房地产一个充满想象力的明天。\n房多多的SaaS业务跑了几个季度后，业务质地浮上水面。2019年11月，房多多上市时的发行价为13美元，截至6月4日收盘，报价为3.17美元，跌去超过7成。\nSaaS相关的创新服务业务发展几年仍然不见成效，当前，房多多面临两个问题，\n其一、创新服务是否还会持续发力？\n创始团队给出了肯定的答案。曾熙曾表示，房多多有两个核心优势，第一是聚集了中国最大的经纪人群体且高频在线；第二是过去十年积累了提供系统解决方案的能力。“基于这两个优势，我们会坚定不移地去推动开发商更快地上线，帮助开发商建设上线所需要的系统和运营服务。”\n其二、房多多所拥有的核心能力壁垒有多高？\n业内做服务的不少，比如贝壳。目前，贝壳的生态内已经有将近300个品牌，4.7万家门店和近50万经纪人入驻。大量的数据让贝壳拥有强大的数据体系，可以为平台上的经纪人、门店经理还有平台服务人员进行服务，将作业流程线上化。从整体看，这种服务仍然是在房地产交易范围内的线上化操作系统。\n另外一类比较具备代表性的就是明源云。明源云从企业ERP起家，如今转型为营销SaaS服务商。主要服务对象就是房地产企业。\n可以说目前，主流的传统房地产企业都曾经使用过明源云的ERP系统。\n明源云的SaaS业务主要细分为云客、云链、云采购、云空间等，涵盖房地产开发商运行的各个环节。其中云客（也就是营销端SaaS系统）在疫情环境下增长迅猛。2020年，明源云迅速推出了掌上售楼，集合线上传播、数字展厅、线上开盘等功能。\n值得一提的是，2020年第四季度，房多多也推出房云SaaS。在功能上，房云SaaS旗下自渠宝产品上线门店智能推荐、商户动态、销售员网店、高意向访客触达提醒等全新功能，帮助案场销售在B端快速启动经纪商户。同时，私域营销工具也同步上线至房云APP，支持开发商发起直播、短视频获客、楼盘一键生成VR、C端用户在线带看等新玩法。\n大家的玩法相似，竞争也无疑会更加激烈。\n从产业端看，有贝壳、安居客等巨头，从SaaS服务看，还有从ERP转型而来的明源云和一众中小玩家。\n房多多还有机会吗？从前者看，房地产经纪呈现强者恒强的互联网属性，规模越大，则实力将越强；而从后者看，2020 年百强房企中，明源云合作了 97 家，客单价从 370 万提升到 610 万元。两个方面总结下来，竞争激烈的行业中，房多多的成绩单算不上优等生，未来需要更强的团队执行力和更快的速度，方有反超的机会。\n今年，房多多发生了一项重要人事变化，刘天旸正式担任房多多高级副总裁。而这位新任的副总裁，目前还任中原集团董事、中原地产（中国内地）副总裁、原萃总裁和几亩置业总裁。\n房多多是原萃的大股东，刘天旸的加盟有何深意？据了解，刘天旸将负责二手房及创新业务，包括二手房交易事业部、挺好住和好房汇业务部。\n二手房，极有可能是房多多继创新业务外下一个业务重点。\n2020年，房多多二手房累计闭环GMV为731亿，同比增长15.26%。而在2020年全年，全国二手房交易金额7.3万亿，创下了自2015年以来最大值的交易额。\n早在2014年，房多多曾投入了大量的资源在二手业务上。但业务发展并不顺利，房多多在2016年把二手房的业务全面地收缩掉，回到了新房主赛道。这一次，重提二手房业务，房多多真的准备好了吗？\n当前，房多多的市值为2.63亿美元，贝壳市值是其245倍。4月份，安居客向港交所提交了上市申请，房产交易市场将迎来又一个巨无霸。面临“破防”的房多多，需要更多变化应对挑战。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112454293,"gmtCreate":1622907538712,"gmtModify":1704193192067,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"d","listText":"d","text":"d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112454293","repostId":"1195062945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195062945","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622863650,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195062945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"富时罗素：将游戏驿站从罗素小盘股指数中删除","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195062945","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"富时罗素将游戏驿站从罗素小盘股指数中删除，特斯拉、摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。","content":"<p>富时罗素将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>从罗素小盘股指数中删除，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>富时罗素：将游戏驿站从罗素小盘股指数中删除</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>从罗素小盘股指数中删除，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11b5c7ad673e1c8970d7acd20db0cef5","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195062945","content_text":"富时罗素将游戏驿站从罗素小盘股指数中删除，特斯拉、摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137310799,"gmtCreate":1622298276611,"gmtModify":1704182813759,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"d","listText":"d","text":"d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137310799","repostId":"1139893263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139893263","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621926753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139893263?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139893263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景","content":"<p>据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p><p><b>背景简介：</b></p><p>阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。</p><p>美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。</p><p>每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：因阵亡将士纪念日，5月31日美股休市一日\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-25 15:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。</p><p>港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p><p><b>背景简介：</b></p><p>阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。</p><p>美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。</p><p>每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139893263","content_text":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911202777,"gmtCreate":1664204066500,"gmtModify":1676537409659,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" o","listText":" o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911202777","repostId":"1105206908","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105206908","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664202329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105206908?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105206908","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.</p><p>New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e210e74a0e1f961c66ebf449adfd87\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-26 22:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.</p><p>New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e210e74a0e1f961c66ebf449adfd87\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","YQ":"一起教育科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105206908","content_text":"Chinese Education Stocks Rose in Morning Trading.New Oriental Education & Technology climbed 12%, Gaotu Techdu and TAL Education rose between 7% and 8% .","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937729393,"gmtCreate":1663509945612,"gmtModify":1676537281164,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"v","listText":"v","text":"v","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937729393","repostId":"1175700857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175700857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663468218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175700857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175700857","media":"RealMoney","summary":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937917076,"gmtCreate":1663340821595,"gmtModify":1676537255909,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"n","listText":"n","text":"n","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937917076","repostId":"1153896735","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153896735","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663337307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153896735?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese ADRs Slipped in Morning Trading with Pinduoduo Sliding Over 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153896735","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese ADRs slipped in morning trading with Pinduoduo sliding over 5%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs slipped in morning trading with Pinduoduo sliding over 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d62c1b0f96f499826c918a61b0e5054\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese ADRs Slipped in Morning Trading with Pinduoduo Sliding Over 5%\t</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Slipped in Morning Trading with Pinduoduo Sliding Over 5%\t\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-16 22:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs slipped in morning trading with Pinduoduo sliding over 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d62c1b0f96f499826c918a61b0e5054\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153896735","content_text":"Hot Chinese ADRs slipped in morning trading with Pinduoduo sliding over 5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869900986,"gmtCreate":1632232696345,"gmtModify":1676530730476,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869900986","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031374?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>港股：</b></p>\n<p>9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>A股：</b></p>\n<p>9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p>\n<p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><b>港股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>港股：</b></p>\n<p>9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>A股：</b></p>\n<p>9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p>\n<p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><b>港股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801906208,"gmtCreate":1627477625504,"gmtModify":1703490699613,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801906208","repostId":"1187015717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187015717","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1627476468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187015717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 20:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"抄底？再等等吧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187015717","media":"格隆汇","summary":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股","content":"<blockquote>\n 外资不怀好意\n</blockquote>\n<p>经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。</p>\n<p>A股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。</p>\n<p>港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。</p>\n<p>板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。</p>\n<p><b>但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>港A股集体沦陷</b></b></p>\n<p>此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。</p>\n<p>但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。</p>\n<p>这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，<b>但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？</b></p>\n<p>也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。</p>\n<p>但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？</p>\n<p>再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>A股的标杆-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。</p>\n<p>茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。</p>\n<p>茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。</p>\n<p>从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--<b>市场交易</b>。</p>\n<p>自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。</p>\n<p>我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？</b></b></p>\n<p>另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。</p>\n<p>时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，<b>先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。</b>何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。</p>\n<p>昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？</p>\n<p>不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。</p>\n<p>另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。</p>\n<p>再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>我们对付不了外资？</b></b></p>\n<p>不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。</p>\n<p>今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。</p>\n<p>当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：</p>\n<p><b>第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。</b></p>\n<p>说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！</p>\n<p>如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。</p>\n<p>今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b><b>后市如何看？</b></b></p>\n<p>说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。</p>\n<p>今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？</p>\n<p><b>新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？</b></p>\n<p>不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。</p>\n<p>往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。</p>\n<p>对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？</p>\n<p>现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。</p>\n<p>今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。</p>\n<p>想抄底，再等等吧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>抄底？再等等吧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抄底？再等等吧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 20:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 外资不怀好意\n</blockquote>\n<p>经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。</p>\n<p>A股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。</p>\n<p>港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。</p>\n<p>板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。</p>\n<p><b>但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>港A股集体沦陷</b></b></p>\n<p>此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。</p>\n<p>但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。</p>\n<p>这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，<b>但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？</b></p>\n<p>也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。</p>\n<p>但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？</p>\n<p>再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>A股的标杆-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。</p>\n<p>茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。</p>\n<p>茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。</p>\n<p>从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--<b>市场交易</b>。</p>\n<p>自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。</p>\n<p>我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？</b></b></p>\n<p>另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。</p>\n<p>时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，<b>先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。</b>何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。</p>\n<p>昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？</p>\n<p>不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。</p>\n<p>另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。</p>\n<p>再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>我们对付不了外资？</b></b></p>\n<p>不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。</p>\n<p>今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。</p>\n<p>当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：</p>\n<p><b>第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。</b></p>\n<p>说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！</p>\n<p>如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。</p>\n<p>今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b><b>后市如何看？</b></b></p>\n<p>说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。</p>\n<p>今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？</p>\n<p><b>新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？</b></p>\n<p>不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。</p>\n<p>往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。</p>\n<p>对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？</p>\n<p>现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。</p>\n<p>今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。</p>\n<p>想抄底，再等等吧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187015717","content_text":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。\n板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。\n但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。\n1、港A股集体沦陷\n此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。\n但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。\n\n这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。\n这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？\n也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。\n\n诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王腾讯跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。\n但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？\n再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。\n\nA股的标杆-贵州茅台，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。\n茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。\n茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。\n从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--市场交易。\n自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。\n我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？\n2、股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？\n另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。\n\n富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。\n\n债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。\n\n这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。\n\n港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。\n\n我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。\n时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。\n昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。\n\n或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？\n不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。\n另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。\n再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？\n\n3、我们对付不了外资？\n不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。\n今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。\n当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：\n第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。\n第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。\n说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！\n如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。\n今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。\n4、后市如何看？\n说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。\n今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？\n新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？\n不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。\n往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。\n对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？\n现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。\n\n腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。\n今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。\n想抄底，再等等吧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144851520,"gmtCreate":1626276285660,"gmtModify":1703757019153,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581939067431343","authorIdStr":"3581939067431343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b","listText":"b","text":"b","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144851520","repostId":"2151518791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"215151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22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"搜狐股价一天暴涨近28%，卖掉搜狗到底有多大好处","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151518791","media":"金十数据","summary":"欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80daf88bcce84d6560fdf0317d84886f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"4148\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>搜狐股价一天暴涨近28%，卖掉搜狗到底有多大好处</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b22fd7984ee2ca1d9e1fb2c08e970f","relate_stocks":{"SOGO":"搜狗","SOHU":"搜狐"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=77759&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151518791","content_text":"欢迎大家在评论区畅所欲言，下一个回答的可能就是你提出的问题哦~","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
