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03-03

It may drop further

2025-08-20

$UMS(558.SI)$ 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 & 21 Aug 2025.

2024-06-24

$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$

2022-10-10

$奇士达(06918)$

2022-05-02

👍👍👍

Reminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr

2021-09-21

Ok

Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd

2021-08-31

????

91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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may drop further&nbsp;","listText":"It may drop further&nbsp;","text":"It may drop further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/538732768413232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469506833777048,"gmtCreate":1755674083272,"gmtModify":1755674086378,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","text":"$UMS(558.SI)$ 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 & 21 Aug 2025.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469506833777048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572354921502456","authorId":"3572354921502456","name":"cynosys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63433b29c8793ada691bcaf88721c8b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572354921502456","authorIdStr":"3572354921502456"},"content":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","text":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","html":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320255620526168,"gmtCreate":1719216481821,"gmtModify":1719216484339,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320255620526168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917033330,"gmtCreate":1665379488720,"gmtModify":1676537596238,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","text":"$奇士达(06918)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917033330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4121322879914382","authorId":"4121322879914382","name":"Edwht","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ba34540ee511d68db8aea4f817fb35d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4121322879914382","authorIdStr":"4121322879914382"},"content":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","text":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","html":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063810171,"gmtCreate":1651451792771,"gmtModify":1676534907326,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063810171","repostId":"1128249329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128249329","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651046450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128249329?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 16:00","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128249329","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>Labor Day (May 1) is approaching, and trading activity in the Singapore market, Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Keep an eye on the specifics and arrange your investment plans in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you the best of luck with your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed on May 2nd (Monday) and open as usual from May 3rd (Tuesday).</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect, Shenzhen Stock Connect</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4 and open as usual on Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from Thursday, April 28 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on May 3 (Tuesday) and open as usual from May 4 (Wednesday).</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Labor Day, also known as \"International Workers' Day\" or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1 as International Labor Day. The Government Affairs Council of the Central People's Government made a decision in December 1949 to designate May 1 as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main holidays of Islam. Together with Eid al-Adha, it is known as the two major holidays of Islam. According to Muhammad's instruction on \"Fasting when you see the new moon, and breaking when you see the new moon\", Ramadan begins every year with the emergence of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends at the sight of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-27 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>Labor Day (May 1) is approaching, and trading activity in the Singapore market, Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Keep an eye on the specifics and arrange your investment plans in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you the best of luck with your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed on May 2nd (Monday) and open as usual from May 3rd (Tuesday).</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect, Shenzhen Stock Connect</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4 and open as usual on Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from Thursday, April 28 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on May 3 (Tuesday) and open as usual from May 4 (Wednesday).</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Labor Day, also known as \"International Workers' Day\" or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1 as International Labor Day. The Government Affairs Council of the Central People's Government made a decision in December 1949 to designate May 1 as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main holidays of Islam. Together with Eid al-Adha, it is known as the two major holidays of Islam. According to Muhammad's instruction on \"Fasting when you see the new moon, and breaking when you see the new moon\", Ramadan begins every year with the emergence of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends at the sight of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558942e83c0149418769df06131301a0","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128249329","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：劳动节（5月1日）即将到来，新加坡市场、香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。此外，新加坡市场也将因开斋节（5月3日）而休市。请留意具体情况，提前安排好您的投资计划。预祝投资顺利！老虎证券休市安排美股照常交易港股5月2日（周一）休市，5月3日（周二）起照常开市。A股5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）休市，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。沪股通、深股通5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）照常开市。港股通4月28日（周四）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。新加坡市场劳动节：5月2日（周一）休市。开斋节：5月3日（周二）休市，5月4日（周三）起照常开市。澳大利亚股市照常交易。背景简介五一劳动节：国际劳动节又称“五一国际劳动节”(International Workers' Day或者May Day)，是世界上80多个国家的全国性节日。1889年7月，由恩格斯领导的第二国际在巴黎举行代表大会。会议通过决议，把5月1日这一天定为国际劳动节。中央人民政府政务院于1949年12月作出决定，将5月1日确定为劳动节。开斋节：伊斯兰教主要节日之一。与宰牲节并称为伊斯兰教的两大节日。根据穆罕默德关于“见新月封斋，见新月开斋”的训谕，每年斋月始于伊斯兰教历9月初新月出现，结束于教历10月初见到新月时为止。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860409203,"gmtCreate":1632193217302,"gmtModify":1676530722478,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860409203","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closure arrangements for each of the major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>US stocks, UK stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, Sept. 16 through Wednesday, Sept. 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closure arrangements for each of the major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>US stocks, UK stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, Sept. 16 through Wednesday, Sept. 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811750762,"gmtCreate":1630361273956,"gmtModify":1676530278046,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811750762","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":320255620526168,"gmtCreate":1719216481821,"gmtModify":1719216484339,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/H78.SI\">$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$置地控股有限公司(H78.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320255620526168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860409203,"gmtCreate":1632193217302,"gmtModify":1676530722478,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860409203","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closure arrangements for each of the major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>US stocks, UK stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, Sept. 16 through Wednesday, Sept. 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The Mid-Autumn Festival closure arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks are closed on the 22nd\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is upon us! The closure arrangements for each of the major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Closed on Wednesday, September 22. The market will open as usual from September 23rd (Thursday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 21st. The market will open as usual from September 22nd (Wednesday).</p><p><b>US stocks, UK stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Friday, September 17 to Wednesday, September 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, Sept. 16 through Wednesday, Sept. 22. It will be open as usual from Thursday, September 23rd.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469506833777048,"gmtCreate":1755674083272,"gmtModify":1755674086378,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/558.SI\">$UMS(558.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 &amp; 21 Aug 2025.","text":"$UMS(558.SI)$ 👍 👍The stock should likely remain range-bound between S$1.35 and S$1.40, with modest upside to S$1.45 if sentiment improves on 20 & 21 Aug 2025.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469506833777048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572354921502456","authorId":"3572354921502456","name":"cynosys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63433b29c8793ada691bcaf88721c8b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572354921502456","authorIdStr":"3572354921502456"},"content":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","text":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30.","html":"Agreed hopefully don't break the support of 1.34/1.35 else the next support will be 1.30."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917033330,"gmtCreate":1665379488720,"gmtModify":1676537596238,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/06918\">$奇士达(06918)$</a>","text":"$奇士达(06918)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917033330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4121322879914382","authorId":"4121322879914382","name":"Edwht","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ba34540ee511d68db8aea4f817fb35d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4121322879914382","authorIdStr":"4121322879914382"},"content":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","text":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation.","html":"trading price in the range of 0.77 to 0.89. All wary after the plunge. Unless there is good news coming. Or another scam operation."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":538732768413232,"gmtCreate":1772548152800,"gmtModify":1772548159990,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It may drop further&nbsp;","listText":"It may drop further&nbsp;","text":"It may drop further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/538732768413232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063810171,"gmtCreate":1651451792771,"gmtModify":1676534907326,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063810171","repostId":"1128249329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128249329","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651046450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128249329?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 16:00","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128249329","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>Labor Day (May 1) is approaching, and trading activity in the Singapore market, Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Keep an eye on the specifics and arrange your investment plans in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you the best of luck with your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed on May 2nd (Monday) and open as usual from May 3rd (Tuesday).</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect, Shenzhen Stock Connect</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4 and open as usual on Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from Thursday, April 28 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on May 3 (Tuesday) and open as usual from May 4 (Wednesday).</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Labor Day, also known as \"International Workers' Day\" or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1 as International Labor Day. The Government Affairs Council of the Central People's Government made a decision in December 1949 to designate May 1 as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main holidays of Islam. Together with Eid al-Adha, it is known as the two major holidays of Islam. According to Muhammad's instruction on \"Fasting when you see the new moon, and breaking when you see the new moon\", Ramadan begins every year with the emergence of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends at the sight of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Stock Market Closure Arrangements on May Day Labor Day and Eid al-Fitr\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-27 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>Labor Day (May 1) is approaching, and trading activity in the Singapore market, Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. In addition, the Singapore market will also be closed for Eid al-Fitr (May 3). Keep an eye on the specifics and arrange your investment plans in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91044bce608b672752b90e047c02f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I wish you the best of luck with your investment!</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Trading as usual</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed on May 2nd (Monday) and open as usual from May 3rd (Tuesday).</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect, Shenzhen Stock Connect</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, May 2 to Wednesday, May 4 and open as usual on Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>It will be closed from Thursday, April 28 to Wednesday, May 4, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 5.</p><p><b>Singapore Market</b></p><p>Labor Day: Closed on Monday, May 2.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: The market will be closed on May 3 (Tuesday) and open as usual from May 4 (Wednesday).</p><p><b>Australian stock market</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>May Day: International Labor Day, also known as \"International Workers' Day\" or May Day, is a national holiday in more than 80 countries around the world. In July 1889, the Second International, led by Engels, held its congress in Paris. The meeting adopted a resolution designating May 1 as International Labor Day. The Government Affairs Council of the Central People's Government made a decision in December 1949 to designate May 1 as Labor Day.</p><p>Eid al-Fitr: One of the main holidays of Islam. Together with Eid al-Adha, it is known as the two major holidays of Islam. According to Muhammad's instruction on \"Fasting when you see the new moon, and breaking when you see the new moon\", Ramadan begins every year with the emergence of the new moon in early September of the Islamic calendar and ends at the sight of the new moon in early October of the Islamic calendar.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558942e83c0149418769df06131301a0","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128249329","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：劳动节（5月1日）即将到来，新加坡市场、香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。此外，新加坡市场也将因开斋节（5月3日）而休市。请留意具体情况，提前安排好您的投资计划。预祝投资顺利！老虎证券休市安排美股照常交易港股5月2日（周一）休市，5月3日（周二）起照常开市。A股5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）休市，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。沪股通、深股通5月2日（周一）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）照常开市。港股通4月28日（周四）至5月4日（周三）关闭，5月5日（周四）起照常开市。新加坡市场劳动节：5月2日（周一）休市。开斋节：5月3日（周二）休市，5月4日（周三）起照常开市。澳大利亚股市照常交易。背景简介五一劳动节：国际劳动节又称“五一国际劳动节”(International Workers' Day或者May Day)，是世界上80多个国家的全国性节日。1889年7月，由恩格斯领导的第二国际在巴黎举行代表大会。会议通过决议，把5月1日这一天定为国际劳动节。中央人民政府政务院于1949年12月作出决定，将5月1日确定为劳动节。开斋节：伊斯兰教主要节日之一。与宰牲节并称为伊斯兰教的两大节日。根据穆罕默德关于“见新月封斋，见新月开斋”的训谕，每年斋月始于伊斯兰教历9月初新月出现，结束于教历10月初见到新月时为止。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811750762,"gmtCreate":1630361273956,"gmtModify":1676530278046,"author":{"id":"3582019358711250","authorId":"3582019358711250","name":"TSone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1358fa925dbe900b88920116a8b434dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019358711250","authorIdStr":"3582019358711250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811750762","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still crossing the cycle, value investment will not go down the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"I have little value physically, only a little residual value left. It is really useless, but it doesn't hinder me from working, it doesn't hinder me from feeling happy, it doesn't hinder me from thinking. I don't feel any reduction in my enjoyment and love of life. In fact, in a sense, the game I'm in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The name always carries a strong legendary color, from American Express to the Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola, to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its \"value investment\" concept has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, but Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is at the top of the chain of disdain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School, where he was apprenticed by Benjamin Graham, known as the \"Father of Value Investors\". Under Graham, Buffett is at home.</p><p>Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock in 1962. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. After that, the nature of Berkshire's business changed, and it was no longer a mere spinning enterprise, but an investment entity. Buffett uses it as a business platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity stakes, creating investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), compared with 15,019% for the S&P 500. This is only the increase in book value, and the increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value is much higher than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after Buffett's 53 years of miraculous operation, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic Case: How Buffett Did It</b></p><p>Buffett is the representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and sophisticated. The success of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name Blue Chip Printing (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy grew slowly, while the net profit soared due to the increase in unit price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is worth a lot more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products are able to be sold at prices above the cost of production and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett reviewed the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's operating capital. After paying the tax on corporate profits, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>See's had brought Berkshire many new sources of cash, and for Berkshire it was as the Bible described it: \"plump and fertile and fertile.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett made another big purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million of its shares, or 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. In the 15 years since 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire had increased its stake to 50 percent and spent $2.3 billion on the remaining 50 percent. After owning the entire equity, GEICO constantly contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the operation mode of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded commercial castle, the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of a conflict between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was depressed. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of shares of Coca-Cola. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, at a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than $20 billion, and the total dividends received during the period are about $6 billion.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said he drank Coke every day and had been using that lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and eating chocolate every day can make me happier but have to shorten my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company, and management cares about capital returns and tangible cash gains for shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long historical sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report are:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started to buy in 1973, swapped its shares in 2014, with an annualized rate of return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzer, bought in 1986, had contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to be bought in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>The H shares of PetroChina bought in 2003 were all sold from July to October 2007, with a pre-tax investment income of about 3.55 billion USD;</p><p>Wait.</p><p>Each vivid case not only shines in the world with prominent investment performance, but also contains changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is a brilliant corporate learner, able to quickly and precisely identify the key to a company's complexity. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always ready, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah did not wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care how the stock market moves in the short term, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of a company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Buffett is not out of date, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, his excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone competes to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there is an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concludes that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because of the ultra-low capital cost of Berkshire's insurance business, the return implies 1.4~1.6 times leverage.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve a combination of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" In fact, I am not a firm supporter of the market effectiveness hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the quantitative traditional finance part), on the other hand, from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the behavioral finance part), and on the other hand, it does have some luck. As the saying goes, the right time, the right place and the right people, no one can be missing.</p><p>So, what exactly did he do right to achieve such an investment achievement? Is it ability, luck, or self-determination?<b>This time, let's talk from three aspects: investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French's 5-factor model for an in-depth look at analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is on top of the famous three-factor model, adding the profitability factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, according to the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and the investment factor with Small and insignificant contribution, and introduced the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) of AQR and the Beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) to form a new FF five-factor model to divide the contribution of factors more accurately. The assumptions of the specific model will not be detailed here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above splits Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess return are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns reached 80.2%. In other words, Buffett's achievement was half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune) and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market value has a negative contribution. It can't be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here, but it may also be discussed in the selection of time period or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can find that most of the excess returns that had not been explained before dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them were explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the use of high leverage, safe, high-quality and cheap stocks at low funding costs, and long-term holdings. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify earnings. However, high leverage can only explain a part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the financing perspective, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He drives investment with debt and expands the circulation mode of investment.</p><p>To sum it up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself says: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheaper prices. One third of his success depends on the heavens (gambling on the times and the luck of the country), and most of it depends on people (personal investment ability is too good).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people in the world, but there is only one Buffett? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the world's good fortune is focused on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? In the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, first, we made a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire's yield, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is about 0.65, cross-intersection alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's original hypothesis that excess returns are 0. Further, from the yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained by the simple CAPM model reaches 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of return minus the variance of market return) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's lucky component, we adopt the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, there were 10,000 completely independent investors who invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their excess returns in each year obey a normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fittings, and the results are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the graph above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative earnings, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative rate of return exceeds Buffett's stochastic fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, among the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck), only 14 finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line is almost always at the top of the entire random fitting section throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained the performance of \"super god\" for a long time and has been stable in the range of the top 0.2%. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still disagree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the yields of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose them who look more \"bull fork\".</p><p><ul><li>14 investors who outperform Buffett are divided into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and the investor with the largest, 75% quantile, 25% quantile and the smallest is taken as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980~2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>My friends have found that these investors who finally outperformed Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage! Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, it had been worse than Buffett, catching up with and outperforming Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, my friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, there are many problems in the actual situation of this model. First, independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term constant investment, without considering personal life span, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even with all the flaws in this model, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? Very rare.</p><p>Acting on oneself and having a clear understanding of the competence circle</p><p>Value investment, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money that is oversold and created by the market's excessive reaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, is it because the company does have poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market overreacts under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging parts of value investment. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and reverse investment behavior.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors excessively pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, resulting in these \"beautiful\" stocks being overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, aside from his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, he and Munger are superior in behavior and psychology, and their accumulated practice is also a necessary condition for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human innate Cognitive Bias and Emotional Bias. Buffett and Munger's decision-making style, cognitive ability or emotional discipline are complementary to Buffett's superior performance. In particular, Munger's influence on Buffett, a master of investment and philosophy, is an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's Structural Charismatic Characteristics, 2. Berkshire's Structural Decision System, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both these factors and Buffett's investment framework can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely Over Estimation, Over Placement and Over Precision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to poor financial and other decisions for a long and sustained time.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious mind and is often called \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of the root cause of all prejudices, overconfidence, and are very cautious about it, and take a series of measures to avoid or minimize the adverse impact of overconfidence on decision-making. Like Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess their scope of knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being good.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of over 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, and their performance is far better than that of the already good S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the market environment, but more thanks to his personal stock picking strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not lucky, and it is almost unrealistic to beat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charm and character, and his great philosophical system, is the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even if it is as strong as the combination of Buffett and Munger, its performance has sometimes underperformed the market significantly from time to time in history. If value investment can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investment strategy. However, it is the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market effectiveness hypothesis untrue, and brings opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market in a long period.</p><p>However, the natural high tracking error of value investment on the market is also a double-edged sword. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but unable to bear tracking errors and failing. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are infinitely despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our belief in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long cycle of value investment.</p><p>To encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}