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Mizi

Mizi

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2021-09-01

Okay can

2021-09-01

Kkay

Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain

2021-07-19

Need like

4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst

2021-07-19

Latest

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-07-19

$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$life is hard

2021-07-16

Latest comment

Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash

2021-07-16

Latest

U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears

2021-07-16

Hmmmmm

2021-07-16

$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$I’ve faith

2021-07-14

Omg…

'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO

2021-07-14

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ yay

2021-07-13

$Walt Disney(DIS)$Hmmmm

2021-07-13

Awesome

PepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices

2021-07-13

Cool

Netflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events

2021-07-13

Shall we?

2021-07-12

Will drop further?

2021-07-12

$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$OMGGG

2021-07-09

Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone

2021-07-09

Like and comment

China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association

2021-07-09

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ still no new changes

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gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164899834","content_text":"SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.\nThe Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.\n** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.\n** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.\n** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.\n** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.\n** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.\n** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.\n** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.\n** China Evergrande Group lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386448,"gmtCreate":1626706464484,"gmtModify":1703763775264,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need like&nbsp;","listText":"Need like&nbsp;","text":"Need like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386448","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386136,"gmtCreate":1626706451425,"gmtModify":1703763773794,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386136","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171388069,"gmtCreate":1626706419051,"gmtModify":1703763772489,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>life is hard","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>life is hard","text":"$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$life is hard","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476e55cbfae38327e2abd5a5e04718cf","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171388069","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170790530,"gmtCreate":1626449309920,"gmtModify":1703760488178,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest comment","listText":"Latest comment","text":"Latest comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170790530","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170790054,"gmtCreate":1626449285678,"gmtModify":1703760487193,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170790054","repostId":"2151500861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151500861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626447960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151500861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151500861","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would rise to 86.5.</p>\n<p>\"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record,\" Richard Curtin, the survey director, said in a statement.</p>\n<p>The survey's gauge of current economic conditions also fell to a reading of 84.5, the lowest since August 2020, from 88.6 in June. Its measure of consumer expectations slid to 78.4, the lowest since February, from 83.5.</p>\n<p>The survey's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year inflation expectation shot to the highest level since August 2008 at 4.8%, up from 4.2%, while its five-year inflation outlook ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8% in June.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 23:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151500861","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on Friday.\nThe University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would rise to 86.5.\n\"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record,\" Richard Curtin, the survey director, said in a statement.\nThe survey's gauge of current economic conditions also fell to a reading of 84.5, the lowest since August 2020, from 88.6 in June. Its measure of consumer expectations slid to 78.4, the lowest since February, from 83.5.\nThe survey's one-year inflation expectation shot to the highest level since August 2008 at 4.8%, up from 4.2%, while its five-year inflation outlook ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8% in June.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170707834,"gmtCreate":1626449260328,"gmtModify":1703760486536,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmmmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f794536defd081350e38a06ae534bc","width":"1125","height":"2894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170707834","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170702516,"gmtCreate":1626449144135,"gmtModify":1703760482615,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHG\">$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$</a>I’ve faith","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHG\">$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$</a>I’ve faith","text":"$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$I’ve faith","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a37a6db9e367f1570b25420c2c99b59b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170702516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144880376,"gmtCreate":1626274964195,"gmtModify":1703756968793,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg…","listText":"Omg…","text":"Omg…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144880376","repostId":"2151551418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151551418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626271991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151551418?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151551418","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities Gam","content":"<p>The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.</p>\n<p>The decline affirms the fears of observers who had warned that a pullback was likely for shares elevated by what some consider speculative trading.</p>\n<p>In a new interview, Franklin Templeton (BEN) CEO Jenny Johnson — whose investment firm manages more than $1.5 trillion in assets — criticized the trading as risky investing that could produce lucrative highs or devastating lows. However, she said she's \"optimistic\" about new trading technology that helps everyday people access the market, predicting the trend will give traders opportunities otherwise exclusive to the rich.</p>\n<p>\"On the meme stocks, I never like investing where there isn't fundamentals behind it,\" she says.</p>\n<p>\"I think that the challenge with things like the meme stocks is yeah, if you time it right, you're going to do great,\" adds Johnson, who became CEO at Franklin Templeton last February. \"On the other hand, you could lose everything.\"</p>\n<p>To be sure, shares in meme stock darlings GameStop and AMC remain well above where they stood at the outset of the year. GameStop has leapt more than 900% over that period, and AMC has shot up more than 1,750%.</p>\n<p>Shareholders in AMC showed their strength last week when online opposition to the potential issuance of new shares prompted CEO Adam Aron to cancel a vote on the proposal.</p>\n<p>Overall, the stock frenzy has fueled a record flow of money into the market from retail investors. Last month, the traders bought almost $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, the largest amount in a single month since at least 2014, according to data from Vanda Research that was reported by the Wall Street Journal.</p>\n<p>But wealthy investors continue to dominate the stock market. The wealthiest 10% of U.S. families own 84% of overall equities and 92% of directly held equities, according to a 2019 Federal Reserve survey analyzed by The New York Times.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-07/1db3e470-e499-11eb-bffd-8aa508ca017c\" tg-width=\"4889\" tg-height=\"3329\"><span>A GameStop storefront is shown before opening Thursday morning, Jan. 28, 2021, in Dallas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)ASSOCIATED PRESS</span></p>\n<p>Johnson, the granddaughter of Franklin Templeton founder Rupert Johnson, began working in the mailroom at the investment fund over holidays at age 14. After a stint at Drexel Burnham, she joined Franklin Templeton in the late '80s, serving in various executive roles before she became CEO.</p>\n<p>Johnson said new trading technology will allow everyday people to access tools and trading opportunities that had only been available to the privileged.</p>\n<p>\"You're going to see that actually what technology is doing is it is bringing to the masses what historically was only available to the ultra-high net worth,\" she says.</p>\n<p>\"What makes me more optimistic is that there's going to be these things that traditionally weren't available to everybody that now because of technology are going to actually be available as investment opportunities,\" she later adds.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-14 22:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.\nThe decline ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","BEN":"富兰克林资源","GME":"游戏驿站","FELE":"富兰克林电子"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2151551418","content_text":"The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.\nThe decline affirms the fears of observers who had warned that a pullback was likely for shares elevated by what some consider speculative trading.\nIn a new interview, Franklin Templeton (BEN) CEO Jenny Johnson — whose investment firm manages more than $1.5 trillion in assets — criticized the trading as risky investing that could produce lucrative highs or devastating lows. However, she said she's \"optimistic\" about new trading technology that helps everyday people access the market, predicting the trend will give traders opportunities otherwise exclusive to the rich.\n\"On the meme stocks, I never like investing where there isn't fundamentals behind it,\" she says.\n\"I think that the challenge with things like the meme stocks is yeah, if you time it right, you're going to do great,\" adds Johnson, who became CEO at Franklin Templeton last February. \"On the other hand, you could lose everything.\"\nTo be sure, shares in meme stock darlings GameStop and AMC remain well above where they stood at the outset of the year. GameStop has leapt more than 900% over that period, and AMC has shot up more than 1,750%.\nShareholders in AMC showed their strength last week when online opposition to the potential issuance of new shares prompted CEO Adam Aron to cancel a vote on the proposal.\nOverall, the stock frenzy has fueled a record flow of money into the market from retail investors. Last month, the traders bought almost $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, the largest amount in a single month since at least 2014, according to data from Vanda Research that was reported by the Wall Street Journal.\nBut wealthy investors continue to dominate the stock market. The wealthiest 10% of U.S. families own 84% of overall equities and 92% of directly held equities, according to a 2019 Federal Reserve survey analyzed by The New York Times.\nA GameStop storefront is shown before opening Thursday morning, Jan. 28, 2021, in Dallas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nJohnson, the granddaughter of Franklin Templeton founder Rupert Johnson, began working in the mailroom at the investment fund over holidays at age 14. After a stint at Drexel Burnham, she joined Franklin Templeton in the late '80s, serving in various executive roles before she became CEO.\nJohnson said new trading technology will allow everyday people to access tools and trading opportunities that had only been available to the privileged.\n\"You're going to see that actually what technology is doing is it is bringing to the masses what historically was only available to the ultra-high net worth,\" she says.\n\"What makes me more optimistic is that there's going to be these things that traditionally weren't available to everybody that now because of technology are going to actually be available as investment opportunities,\" she later adds.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144817324,"gmtCreate":1626274919668,"gmtModify":1703756966997,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> yay","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> yay","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ yay","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb618d41943cfb5deaef55c29a4067c9","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144817324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145317293,"gmtCreate":1626189704712,"gmtModify":1703755263643,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Hmmmm","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Hmmmm","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$Hmmmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b5dc1972dbf1513bdad31d287b6e38","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145317293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145311507,"gmtCreate":1626189499009,"gmtModify":1703755255369,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145311507","repostId":"1147338005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147338005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626189111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147338005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147338005","media":"CNBC","summary":"PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to","content":"<div>\n<p>PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 23:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAG":"康尼格拉","PEP":"百事可乐"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1147338005","content_text":"PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer price index jumped 5.4% in June compared with a year ago. It's the biggest monthly gain since August 2008. Food prices rose 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's current position is that current inflationary pressures are \"transitory,\" although the central bank's New York districtfound that consumers have different expectations.\nMaybe that's because they'll soon see higher prices on products like Slim Jim jerky and Orville Reden bacher popcorn, which are owned by Conagra. CEO Sean Connolly said in a statement that the company has upgraded its existing plans to respond to higher input costs. He explained that inflation accelerated during thefiscal fourth quarterended May 30, leading the company to expect \"materially higher\" costs than it did at the end of its fiscal third quarter in late February.\n\"While we are pleased with the initial results, there will be a lag between the time we are hit with higher costs and when we realize the benefits of our actions,\" Connolly said in the statement.\nThe delay is expected to hit Conagra's results over the next six months, leading the company to cut its fiscal 2022 forecast. The news hit Conagra's stock, dragging shares down by more than 4% in morning trading despite beating Wall Street's estimates for its top and bottom lines. The stock has fallen 5% this year, shrinking its market value to $16.5 billion.\nLikewise, Pepsi is also seeing higher costs for some ingredients, freight and labor. During a conference call Tuesday, CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts that the company thinks it can manage the higher costs through a combination of higher prices and increased productivity. CFO Hugh Johnston said that Pepsi expects to continue its pattern of hiking prices after Labor Day.\nPepsi executives made similar comments on the prior quarter's conference call, although inflation has accelerated since then. Luckily for Pepsi, its ingredient basket is diverse, and no single commodity accounts for more than a tenth of the basket.\nPepsi shares rose more than 2% in morning trading, setting an all-time high for the stock, after thecompany's second-quarter earnings crushed Wall Street's estimates. The company also raised its forecast as consumers returned to restaurants and movie theaters. The stock is up 3% this year, giving it a market value of $212 billion, nearly 13 times that of Conagra.\nInflation is also trickling down to another kind of food buyer: restaurants.Chipotle Mexican GrillCEO Brian Niccol said on CNBC's\"Squawk Box\"on Tuesday that the burrito chain is seeing some cost pressure.\n\"Whether or not that is permanent in some of the key inputs for our business is to be determined, but I think the positive is that the supply chain is starting to break through some of the bottlenecks that we were battling throughout Covid,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145319786,"gmtCreate":1626189421545,"gmtModify":1703755252439,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145319786","repostId":"1120348548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120348548","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626189294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120348548?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120348548","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NAS","content":"<ul>\n <li>Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will&nbsp;land&nbsp;exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.</li>\n <li>The agreement is reported to be a multi-year licensing deal and gives Netflix a window to stream upcoming animated films such as<i>Puss in Boots: The Last Wish</i>or<i>The Bad Guys</i>&nbsp;after a four month stint on Peacock. The new agreement builds upon Netflix's pre-existing Illumination output deal with Universal.</li>\n <li>Elsewhere in Netflix world, the company also inked a content extension deal with Shonda Rhimes for five years in a contract expected to be in the hundreds of millions.</li>\n <li>The streaming giant is also expected to continue&nbsp;building&nbsp;on its initial foray into live events, including a Bridgerton ball show scheduled for the fall.</li>\n <li>The flurry of Netflix news arrives with earnings due out next week. Netflix has topped revenue estimates in six straight quarters, but hasmissed EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1120348548","content_text":"Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.\nThe agreement is reported to be a multi-year licensing deal and gives Netflix a window to stream upcoming animated films such asPuss in Boots: The Last WishorThe Bad Guys after a four month stint on Peacock. The new agreement builds upon Netflix's pre-existing Illumination output deal with Universal.\nElsewhere in Netflix world, the company also inked a content extension deal with Shonda Rhimes for five years in a contract expected to be in the hundreds of millions.\nThe streaming giant is also expected to continue building on its initial foray into live events, including a Bridgerton ball show scheduled for the fall.\nThe flurry of Netflix news arrives with earnings due out next week. Netflix has topped revenue estimates in six straight quarters, but hasmissed EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145334990,"gmtCreate":1626189279610,"gmtModify":1703755247247,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shall we?","listText":"Shall we?","text":"Shall we?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c95bef1c4c302037947170ec9a72cac","width":"1125","height":"2894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145334990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146762100,"gmtCreate":1626099897300,"gmtModify":1703753430087,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will drop further?&nbsp;","listText":"Will drop further?&nbsp;","text":"Will drop further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443683b6c4e32f2aa62c736022de3eb0","width":"1125","height":"3055"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146762100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146766653,"gmtCreate":1626099865472,"gmtModify":1703753428771,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$</a>OMGGG&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$</a>OMGGG&nbsp;","text":"$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$OMGGG","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fd741642b847962e6f8636747beaa0","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146766653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143448585,"gmtCreate":1625812925747,"gmtModify":1703749070402,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone&nbsp;","listText":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone&nbsp;","text":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe0359204926fbe64230a0d5e488a6f","width":"1125","height":"2794"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143448585","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143449725,"gmtCreate":1625812667667,"gmtModify":1703749066946,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143449725","repostId":"2150320772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150320772","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625811863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150320772?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150320772","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June ","content":"<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150320772","content_text":"BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.\nOverall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.\nThe country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.\nSales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.\nNEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.\nTesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143449339,"gmtCreate":1625812594221,"gmtModify":1703749065791,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> still no new&nbsp;changes&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> still no new&nbsp;changes&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ still no new 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143449725","repostId":"2150320772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145319786,"gmtCreate":1626189421545,"gmtModify":1703755252439,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145319786","repostId":"1120348548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120348548","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626189294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120348548?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120348548","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NAS","content":"<ul>\n <li>Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will&nbsp;land&nbsp;exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.</li>\n <li>The agreement is reported to be a multi-year licensing deal and gives Netflix a window to stream upcoming animated films such as<i>Puss in Boots: The Last Wish</i>or<i>The Bad Guys</i>&nbsp;after a four month stint on Peacock. The new agreement builds upon Netflix's pre-existing Illumination output deal with Universal.</li>\n <li>Elsewhere in Netflix world, the company also inked a content extension deal with Shonda Rhimes for five years in a contract expected to be in the hundreds of millions.</li>\n <li>The streaming giant is also expected to continue&nbsp;building&nbsp;on its initial foray into live events, including a Bridgerton ball show scheduled for the fall.</li>\n <li>The flurry of Netflix news arrives with earnings due out next week. Netflix has topped revenue estimates in six straight quarters, but hasmissed EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix extends deals with Universal and Shonda Rimes; eyes boosting live events\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714776-netflix-extends-deals-with-universal-and-shonda-rimes-eyes-boosting-live-events","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1120348548","content_text":"Netflix(NFLX+0.4%)will land exclusive streaming rights for animated feature films from Comcast's(NASDAQ:CMCSA)Universal Filmed Entertainment Group under a new agreement, according to Variety.\nThe agreement is reported to be a multi-year licensing deal and gives Netflix a window to stream upcoming animated films such asPuss in Boots: The Last WishorThe Bad Guys after a four month stint on Peacock. The new agreement builds upon Netflix's pre-existing Illumination output deal with Universal.\nElsewhere in Netflix world, the company also inked a content extension deal with Shonda Rhimes for five years in a contract expected to be in the hundreds of millions.\nThe streaming giant is also expected to continue building on its initial foray into live events, including a Bridgerton ball show scheduled for the fall.\nThe flurry of Netflix news arrives with earnings due out next week. Netflix has topped revenue estimates in six straight quarters, but hasmissed EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386136,"gmtCreate":1626706451425,"gmtModify":1703763773794,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386136","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145311507,"gmtCreate":1626189499009,"gmtModify":1703755255369,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145311507","repostId":"1147338005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147338005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626189111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147338005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147338005","media":"CNBC","summary":"PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to","content":"<div>\n<p>PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPepsiCo and Conagra plan to battle rising costs with higher prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 23:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAG":"康尼格拉","PEP":"百事可乐"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/pepsico-and-conagra-plan-to-battle-rising-costs-with-higher-prices.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1147338005","content_text":"PepsiCo and Conagra Brands both said on Tuesday that the plan is to pass along higher input costs to customers as inflation accelerates.\nEarlier, the Department of Labor reported that the consumer price index jumped 5.4% in June compared with a year ago. It's the biggest monthly gain since August 2008. Food prices rose 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's current position is that current inflationary pressures are \"transitory,\" although the central bank's New York districtfound that consumers have different expectations.\nMaybe that's because they'll soon see higher prices on products like Slim Jim jerky and Orville Reden bacher popcorn, which are owned by Conagra. CEO Sean Connolly said in a statement that the company has upgraded its existing plans to respond to higher input costs. He explained that inflation accelerated during thefiscal fourth quarterended May 30, leading the company to expect \"materially higher\" costs than it did at the end of its fiscal third quarter in late February.\n\"While we are pleased with the initial results, there will be a lag between the time we are hit with higher costs and when we realize the benefits of our actions,\" Connolly said in the statement.\nThe delay is expected to hit Conagra's results over the next six months, leading the company to cut its fiscal 2022 forecast. The news hit Conagra's stock, dragging shares down by more than 4% in morning trading despite beating Wall Street's estimates for its top and bottom lines. The stock has fallen 5% this year, shrinking its market value to $16.5 billion.\nLikewise, Pepsi is also seeing higher costs for some ingredients, freight and labor. During a conference call Tuesday, CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts that the company thinks it can manage the higher costs through a combination of higher prices and increased productivity. CFO Hugh Johnston said that Pepsi expects to continue its pattern of hiking prices after Labor Day.\nPepsi executives made similar comments on the prior quarter's conference call, although inflation has accelerated since then. Luckily for Pepsi, its ingredient basket is diverse, and no single commodity accounts for more than a tenth of the basket.\nPepsi shares rose more than 2% in morning trading, setting an all-time high for the stock, after thecompany's second-quarter earnings crushed Wall Street's estimates. The company also raised its forecast as consumers returned to restaurants and movie theaters. The stock is up 3% this year, giving it a market value of $212 billion, nearly 13 times that of Conagra.\nInflation is also trickling down to another kind of food buyer: restaurants.Chipotle Mexican GrillCEO Brian Niccol said on CNBC's\"Squawk Box\"on Tuesday that the burrito chain is seeing some cost pressure.\n\"Whether or not that is permanent in some of the key inputs for our business is to be determined, but I think the positive is that the supply chain is starting to break through some of the bottlenecks that we were battling throughout Covid,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816888010,"gmtCreate":1630486972830,"gmtModify":1676530317167,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkay","listText":"Kkay","text":"Kkay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816888010","repostId":"2164899834","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170790530,"gmtCreate":1626449309920,"gmtModify":1703760488178,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest comment","listText":"Latest comment","text":"Latest comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170790530","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170790054,"gmtCreate":1626449285678,"gmtModify":1703760487193,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170790054","repostId":"2151500861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151500861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626447960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151500861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151500861","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would rise to 86.5.</p>\n<p>\"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record,\" Richard Curtin, the survey director, said in a statement.</p>\n<p>The survey's gauge of current economic conditions also fell to a reading of 84.5, the lowest since August 2020, from 88.6 in June. Its measure of consumer expectations slid to 78.4, the lowest since February, from 83.5.</p>\n<p>The survey's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year inflation expectation shot to the highest level since August 2008 at 4.8%, up from 4.2%, while its five-year inflation outlook ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8% in June.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 23:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18686661","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151500861","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply and unexpectedly in early July to the lowest level in five months as inflation worries dented confidence in the economic recovery, a survey showed on Friday.\nThe University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of this month - the lowest since February - from a final reading of 85.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would rise to 86.5.\n\"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record,\" Richard Curtin, the survey director, said in a statement.\nThe survey's gauge of current economic conditions also fell to a reading of 84.5, the lowest since August 2020, from 88.6 in June. Its measure of consumer expectations slid to 78.4, the lowest since February, from 83.5.\nThe survey's one-year inflation expectation shot to the highest level since August 2008 at 4.8%, up from 4.2%, while its five-year inflation outlook ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8% in June.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171388069,"gmtCreate":1626706419051,"gmtModify":1703763772489,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>life is hard","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>life is hard","text":"$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$life is hard","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476e55cbfae38327e2abd5a5e04718cf","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171388069","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170702516,"gmtCreate":1626449144135,"gmtModify":1703760482615,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHG\">$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$</a>I’ve faith","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHG\">$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$</a>I’ve faith","text":"$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$I’ve faith","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a37a6db9e367f1570b25420c2c99b59b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170702516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386448,"gmtCreate":1626706464484,"gmtModify":1703763775264,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need like&nbsp;","listText":"Need like&nbsp;","text":"Need like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386448","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149747611,"gmtCreate":1625751072833,"gmtModify":1703747775471,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>hello","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>hello","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$hello","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ba460ec5a3b888e35c98f38392d936a","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149747611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816888638,"gmtCreate":1630487034424,"gmtModify":1676530317178,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay can","listText":"Okay can","text":"Okay can","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa366d957c2ae9e61147acca2936ad31","width":"1125","height":"3572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816888638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170707834,"gmtCreate":1626449260328,"gmtModify":1703760486536,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmmmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f794536defd081350e38a06ae534bc","width":"1125","height":"2894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170707834","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144880376,"gmtCreate":1626274964195,"gmtModify":1703756968793,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg…","listText":"Omg…","text":"Omg…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144880376","repostId":"2151551418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151551418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626271991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151551418?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151551418","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities Gam","content":"<p>The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.</p>\n<p>The decline affirms the fears of observers who had warned that a pullback was likely for shares elevated by what some consider speculative trading.</p>\n<p>In a new interview, Franklin Templeton (BEN) CEO Jenny Johnson — whose investment firm manages more than $1.5 trillion in assets — criticized the trading as risky investing that could produce lucrative highs or devastating lows. However, she said she's \"optimistic\" about new trading technology that helps everyday people access the market, predicting the trend will give traders opportunities otherwise exclusive to the rich.</p>\n<p>\"On the meme stocks, I never like investing where there isn't fundamentals behind it,\" she says.</p>\n<p>\"I think that the challenge with things like the meme stocks is yeah, if you time it right, you're going to do great,\" adds Johnson, who became CEO at Franklin Templeton last February. \"On the other hand, you could lose everything.\"</p>\n<p>To be sure, shares in meme stock darlings GameStop and AMC remain well above where they stood at the outset of the year. GameStop has leapt more than 900% over that period, and AMC has shot up more than 1,750%.</p>\n<p>Shareholders in AMC showed their strength last week when online opposition to the potential issuance of new shares prompted CEO Adam Aron to cancel a vote on the proposal.</p>\n<p>Overall, the stock frenzy has fueled a record flow of money into the market from retail investors. Last month, the traders bought almost $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, the largest amount in a single month since at least 2014, according to data from Vanda Research that was reported by the Wall Street Journal.</p>\n<p>But wealthy investors continue to dominate the stock market. The wealthiest 10% of U.S. families own 84% of overall equities and 92% of directly held equities, according to a 2019 Federal Reserve survey analyzed by The New York Times.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-07/1db3e470-e499-11eb-bffd-8aa508ca017c\" tg-width=\"4889\" tg-height=\"3329\"><span>A GameStop storefront is shown before opening Thursday morning, Jan. 28, 2021, in Dallas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)ASSOCIATED PRESS</span></p>\n<p>Johnson, the granddaughter of Franklin Templeton founder Rupert Johnson, began working in the mailroom at the investment fund over holidays at age 14. After a stint at Drexel Burnham, she joined Franklin Templeton in the late '80s, serving in various executive roles before she became CEO.</p>\n<p>Johnson said new trading technology will allow everyday people to access tools and trading opportunities that had only been available to the privileged.</p>\n<p>\"You're going to see that actually what technology is doing is it is bringing to the masses what historically was only available to the ultra-high net worth,\" she says.</p>\n<p>\"What makes me more optimistic is that there's going to be these things that traditionally weren't available to everybody that now because of technology are going to actually be available as investment opportunities,\" she later adds.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'You could lose everything' on meme stocks: Franklin Templeton CEO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-14 22:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.\nThe decline ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","BEN":"富兰克林资源","GME":"游戏驿站","FELE":"富兰克林电子"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/you-could-lose-everything-on-meme-stocks-franklin-templeton-ceo-135011534.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2151551418","content_text":"The meme stock craze has cooled off — at least temporarily. Over the past week, favored equities GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) have plummeted, dropping about 10% and 21% respectively.\nThe decline affirms the fears of observers who had warned that a pullback was likely for shares elevated by what some consider speculative trading.\nIn a new interview, Franklin Templeton (BEN) CEO Jenny Johnson — whose investment firm manages more than $1.5 trillion in assets — criticized the trading as risky investing that could produce lucrative highs or devastating lows. However, she said she's \"optimistic\" about new trading technology that helps everyday people access the market, predicting the trend will give traders opportunities otherwise exclusive to the rich.\n\"On the meme stocks, I never like investing where there isn't fundamentals behind it,\" she says.\n\"I think that the challenge with things like the meme stocks is yeah, if you time it right, you're going to do great,\" adds Johnson, who became CEO at Franklin Templeton last February. \"On the other hand, you could lose everything.\"\nTo be sure, shares in meme stock darlings GameStop and AMC remain well above where they stood at the outset of the year. GameStop has leapt more than 900% over that period, and AMC has shot up more than 1,750%.\nShareholders in AMC showed their strength last week when online opposition to the potential issuance of new shares prompted CEO Adam Aron to cancel a vote on the proposal.\nOverall, the stock frenzy has fueled a record flow of money into the market from retail investors. Last month, the traders bought almost $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, the largest amount in a single month since at least 2014, according to data from Vanda Research that was reported by the Wall Street Journal.\nBut wealthy investors continue to dominate the stock market. The wealthiest 10% of U.S. families own 84% of overall equities and 92% of directly held equities, according to a 2019 Federal Reserve survey analyzed by The New York Times.\nA GameStop storefront is shown before opening Thursday morning, Jan. 28, 2021, in Dallas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nJohnson, the granddaughter of Franklin Templeton founder Rupert Johnson, began working in the mailroom at the investment fund over holidays at age 14. After a stint at Drexel Burnham, she joined Franklin Templeton in the late '80s, serving in various executive roles before she became CEO.\nJohnson said new trading technology will allow everyday people to access tools and trading opportunities that had only been available to the privileged.\n\"You're going to see that actually what technology is doing is it is bringing to the masses what historically was only available to the ultra-high net worth,\" she says.\n\"What makes me more optimistic is that there's going to be these things that traditionally weren't available to everybody that now because of technology are going to actually be available as investment opportunities,\" she later adds.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144817324,"gmtCreate":1626274919668,"gmtModify":1703756966997,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> yay","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> yay","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ 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Disney(DIS)$Hmmmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b5dc1972dbf1513bdad31d287b6e38","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145317293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145334990,"gmtCreate":1626189279610,"gmtModify":1703755247247,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shall we?","listText":"Shall we?","text":"Shall we?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c95bef1c4c302037947170ec9a72cac","width":"1125","height":"2894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145334990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146762100,"gmtCreate":1626099897300,"gmtModify":1703753430087,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will drop further?&nbsp;","listText":"Will drop further?&nbsp;","text":"Will drop further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443683b6c4e32f2aa62c736022de3eb0","width":"1125","height":"3055"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146762100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146766653,"gmtCreate":1626099865472,"gmtModify":1703753428771,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$</a>OMGGG&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$</a>OMGGG&nbsp;","text":"$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$OMGGG","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fd741642b847962e6f8636747beaa0","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146766653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143448585,"gmtCreate":1625812925747,"gmtModify":1703749070402,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone&nbsp;","listText":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone&nbsp;","text":"Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change 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