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Nana娜娜
2021-05-10
Thanka
5 Unbeatable Stocks to Buy for a Biden Bull Market
Nana娜娜
2021-05-07
Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?
Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic wreaked havoc on the U.S. and global economy, and it briefly sent the U.S. stock market into a tailspin.However, a perfect storm could be brewing for equities under the Biden administration. The Federal Reserve has pledged to hold firm on historically low lending rates, while the White House is calling for trillions of dollars in additional","content":"<p>When President Joe Biden took office on Jan. 20, 2021, he inherited one of the worst economic catastrophes in decades. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wreaked havoc on the U.S. and global economy, and it briefly sent the U.S. stock market into a tailspin.</p>\n<p>However, a perfect storm could be brewing for equities under the Biden administration. The Federal Reserve has pledged to hold firm on historically low lending rates, while the White House is calling for trillions of dollars in additional spending. This abundant access to cheap capital is the perfect recipe for stocks to thrive in a rebounding economy.</p>\n<p>If a Biden bull market does take shape, the following five unbeatable stocks would be the perfect companies to own.</p>\n<p><b>Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>Few stocks are more synonymous with the word \"unbeatable\" than <b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming platform YouTube.</p>\n<p>Alphabet operates what might as well be a monopoly in internet search. According to GlobalStats, Google has consistently maintainedglobal search engine market share of 91% to 93%for at least the past two years. Its next-closest competitor,<b>Microsoft</b>'s Bing, hardly registered with a 2.29% share of the search engine market in April 2021. Being such a dominant force in search means advertisers will pay up for prime placement. It also suggests that the company's traffic acquisition costs should decline over time. As the U.S. and global economy improve, ad spending should really pick up.</p>\n<p>But Alphabetis about more than just internet search. Ad revenue generated from YouTube -- one of the three most-visited social sites on the planet -- jumped 49% in the first quarter to $6 billion. Meanwhile, revenue from cloud infrastructure segment Google Cloud rose 46% to $4 billion. These once small ancillary operations are now on track to contribute $40 billion in sales to Alphabet on an annual run-rate basis.</p>\n<p>Despite its $1.6 trillion price tag, Alphabet is still a bargain.</p>\n<p><b>AstraZeneca</b></p>\n<p>For two decades,pharmaceutical stock <b>AstraZeneca</b>(NASDAQ:AZN)was a largely forgettable drug developer that struggled with competition and the patent cliff. Today, it's reinvented itself into a bona fide growth stock with a bright future.</p>\n<p>The primary growth driver for AstraZenecais the company's oncology segment. In the first quarter alone, constant currency sales jumped 16% to $3.02 billion. The company's blockbuster trio of Tagrisso, Imfinzi, and Lynparza led the way with respective constant-currency sales growth of 13%, 17%, and 33%. Diabetes blockbuster drug Farxiga also deserves a mention with its 50% constant-currency sales growth in Q1 2021. The company's brand-name treatments are on fire, and it's led to sustainable double-digit topline growth.</p>\n<p>Equally exciting is AstraZeneca's pending acquisition of<b>Alexion Pharmaceuticals</b>(NASDAQ:ALXN). Alexion is a developer of ultra-rare therapeutics. Though it's risky developing treatments for such a small group of patients, success is usually met with no competition and little or no pushback from health insurers on high list prices.</p>\n<p>The best part about the Alexion deal is the companydeveloped a replacement for its top-selling drug, Soliris. The next-generation therapy, known as Ultomiris, is administered less frequently, which is a positive for patients. Eventually, Ultomiris will gobble up Soliris' sales and lock-up Alexion's/AstraZeneca's cash flow for a long time to come.</p>\n<p><b>Mastercard</b></p>\n<p>Another unbeatable stock that can deliver superior returns with Biden in the White House is payment facilitator<b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE:MA).</p>\n<p>Like mostfinancial stocks, Mastercard is cyclical. This means it struggles when the U.S. and global economy contract or enter a recession and it thrives when the economy is running on all cylinders. That's because it relies on merchant fees via payments to drive its top and bottom line. But the thing to understand about cyclical companies like Mastercard is that time is on their side. Whereas recessions often last for a few quarters, periods of expansion usually last many years. Considering how much money the Biden administration is attempting to pump into the U.S. economy, Mastercard should have a field day.</p>\n<p>Something else to consider is that Mastercardhas chosen not to be a lender. Although some of its peers do act as both processors and lenders (via credit cards), and are therefore able to double-dip during economic expansions, Mastercard's avoidance of lending is actually a smart move. When recessions inevitably strike and credit delinquencies rise, Mastercard doesn't have set aside cash. This is why it rebounds much quicker than its peers during the early stages of a recovery.</p>\n<p>The math here is simple: As the economy picks up steam, consumers and businesses are going to spend, spend, and spend some more. That's music to the ears of all Mastercard shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>Annaly Capital Management</b></p>\n<p>Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about you dividend income-seekers out there. If a Biden bull market takes shape, mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)<b>Annaly Capital Management</b>(NYSE:NLY)could be a smart place to put your money to work.</p>\n<p>Without getting overly technical, mortgage REITs like Annaly borrow money at short-term lending rates and use it to purchase securities with higher long-term yields. In Annaly's case, we're primarily talking about mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The difference between the long-term yield received and the short-term borrowing rate is known as net interest margin (NIM). The wider the NIM, the more profitable Annaly is, and the bigger the dividend payout it can provide to shareholders. Right now, Annaly Capital isyielding a jaw-dropping 9.7%.</p>\n<p>What makes Annaly such a perfect stock to buy is thatwe're witnessing the yield curve steepen. When the U.S. economy is rebounding from a recession, it's normal for long-term yields to rise and for short-term yields to fall or flatten out. When this happens, Annaly usually experiences a widening of its NIM.</p>\n<p>Additionally, Annaly almost exclusively buys agency securities. This is a fancy way of saying that the MBSs it's purchasing are backed by the federal government in the event of a default. This protection is what allows the company to utilize leverage to its advantage, thereby pumping up its profits.</p>\n<p><b>Trupanion</b></p>\n<p>Lastly, companion animal health insurance company <b>Trupanion</b>(NASDAQ:TRUP)has all the look of an unbeatable stock to buy in a Biden bull market.</p>\n<p>The pet industry may not offer flashy growth prospects like cybersecurity or cannabis, but it's arguably themost consistent growth opportunity. It's been more than a quarter of a century since year-over-year U.S. pet expenditures declined. Further, the American Pet Products Association notes that the percentage of American household owning a pet has increased from 56% in 1988 to 67% by 2019-2020. If we've learned anything about pet owners, it's that they're willing to spend big bucks to ensure the well-being of their four-legged family members.</p>\n<p>Trupanion, which recently lifted the hood on its first-quarter operating results, isclosing in on 1 million total enrolled pets(943,854 at the end of Q1 2021). Amazingly, this only represents a little over 1% penetration of the U.S. market. In the U.K., about 1 in 4 pet owners purchases insurance for their cat or dog. If Trupanion can achieve a similar penetration rate, its addressable market would be more than $32 billion.</p>\n<p>This is a company that's spent two decades building up rapport with veterinarians and their staff at the clinical level. It's also the only major companion animal health insurance provider with software capable of handling payment to veterinarians at the time of checkout.</p>\n<p>The sky is the limit for Trupanion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Unbeatable Stocks to Buy for a Biden Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Unbeatable Stocks to Buy for a Biden Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 10:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/09/5-unbeatable-stocks-to-buy-for-a-biden-bull-market/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When President Joe Biden took office on Jan. 20, 2021, he inherited one of the worst economic catastrophes in decades. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wreaked havoc on the U.S. and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/09/5-unbeatable-stocks-to-buy-for-a-biden-bull-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","NLY":"Annaly Capital Management","TRUP":"Trupanion","AZN":"阿斯利康","MA":"万事达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/09/5-unbeatable-stocks-to-buy-for-a-biden-bull-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171756066","content_text":"When President Joe Biden took office on Jan. 20, 2021, he inherited one of the worst economic catastrophes in decades. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wreaked havoc on the U.S. and global economy, and it briefly sent the U.S. stock market into a tailspin.\nHowever, a perfect storm could be brewing for equities under the Biden administration. The Federal Reserve has pledged to hold firm on historically low lending rates, while the White House is calling for trillions of dollars in additional spending. This abundant access to cheap capital is the perfect recipe for stocks to thrive in a rebounding economy.\nIf a Biden bull market does take shape, the following five unbeatable stocks would be the perfect companies to own.\nAlphabet\nFew stocks are more synonymous with the word \"unbeatable\" than Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming platform YouTube.\nAlphabet operates what might as well be a monopoly in internet search. According to GlobalStats, Google has consistently maintainedglobal search engine market share of 91% to 93%for at least the past two years. Its next-closest competitor,Microsoft's Bing, hardly registered with a 2.29% share of the search engine market in April 2021. Being such a dominant force in search means advertisers will pay up for prime placement. It also suggests that the company's traffic acquisition costs should decline over time. As the U.S. and global economy improve, ad spending should really pick up.\nBut Alphabetis about more than just internet search. Ad revenue generated from YouTube -- one of the three most-visited social sites on the planet -- jumped 49% in the first quarter to $6 billion. Meanwhile, revenue from cloud infrastructure segment Google Cloud rose 46% to $4 billion. These once small ancillary operations are now on track to contribute $40 billion in sales to Alphabet on an annual run-rate basis.\nDespite its $1.6 trillion price tag, Alphabet is still a bargain.\nAstraZeneca\nFor two decades,pharmaceutical stock AstraZeneca(NASDAQ:AZN)was a largely forgettable drug developer that struggled with competition and the patent cliff. Today, it's reinvented itself into a bona fide growth stock with a bright future.\nThe primary growth driver for AstraZenecais the company's oncology segment. In the first quarter alone, constant currency sales jumped 16% to $3.02 billion. The company's blockbuster trio of Tagrisso, Imfinzi, and Lynparza led the way with respective constant-currency sales growth of 13%, 17%, and 33%. Diabetes blockbuster drug Farxiga also deserves a mention with its 50% constant-currency sales growth in Q1 2021. The company's brand-name treatments are on fire, and it's led to sustainable double-digit topline growth.\nEqually exciting is AstraZeneca's pending acquisition ofAlexion Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:ALXN). Alexion is a developer of ultra-rare therapeutics. Though it's risky developing treatments for such a small group of patients, success is usually met with no competition and little or no pushback from health insurers on high list prices.\nThe best part about the Alexion deal is the companydeveloped a replacement for its top-selling drug, Soliris. The next-generation therapy, known as Ultomiris, is administered less frequently, which is a positive for patients. Eventually, Ultomiris will gobble up Soliris' sales and lock-up Alexion's/AstraZeneca's cash flow for a long time to come.\nMastercard\nAnother unbeatable stock that can deliver superior returns with Biden in the White House is payment facilitatorMastercard(NYSE:MA).\nLike mostfinancial stocks, Mastercard is cyclical. This means it struggles when the U.S. and global economy contract or enter a recession and it thrives when the economy is running on all cylinders. That's because it relies on merchant fees via payments to drive its top and bottom line. But the thing to understand about cyclical companies like Mastercard is that time is on their side. Whereas recessions often last for a few quarters, periods of expansion usually last many years. Considering how much money the Biden administration is attempting to pump into the U.S. economy, Mastercard should have a field day.\nSomething else to consider is that Mastercardhas chosen not to be a lender. Although some of its peers do act as both processors and lenders (via credit cards), and are therefore able to double-dip during economic expansions, Mastercard's avoidance of lending is actually a smart move. When recessions inevitably strike and credit delinquencies rise, Mastercard doesn't have set aside cash. This is why it rebounds much quicker than its peers during the early stages of a recovery.\nThe math here is simple: As the economy picks up steam, consumers and businesses are going to spend, spend, and spend some more. That's music to the ears of all Mastercard shareholders.\nAnnaly Capital Management\nDon't worry, I haven't forgotten about you dividend income-seekers out there. If a Biden bull market takes shape, mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)Annaly Capital Management(NYSE:NLY)could be a smart place to put your money to work.\nWithout getting overly technical, mortgage REITs like Annaly borrow money at short-term lending rates and use it to purchase securities with higher long-term yields. In Annaly's case, we're primarily talking about mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The difference between the long-term yield received and the short-term borrowing rate is known as net interest margin (NIM). The wider the NIM, the more profitable Annaly is, and the bigger the dividend payout it can provide to shareholders. Right now, Annaly Capital isyielding a jaw-dropping 9.7%.\nWhat makes Annaly such a perfect stock to buy is thatwe're witnessing the yield curve steepen. When the U.S. economy is rebounding from a recession, it's normal for long-term yields to rise and for short-term yields to fall or flatten out. When this happens, Annaly usually experiences a widening of its NIM.\nAdditionally, Annaly almost exclusively buys agency securities. This is a fancy way of saying that the MBSs it's purchasing are backed by the federal government in the event of a default. This protection is what allows the company to utilize leverage to its advantage, thereby pumping up its profits.\nTrupanion\nLastly, companion animal health insurance company Trupanion(NASDAQ:TRUP)has all the look of an unbeatable stock to buy in a Biden bull market.\nThe pet industry may not offer flashy growth prospects like cybersecurity or cannabis, but it's arguably themost consistent growth opportunity. It's been more than a quarter of a century since year-over-year U.S. pet expenditures declined. Further, the American Pet Products Association notes that the percentage of American household owning a pet has increased from 56% in 1988 to 67% by 2019-2020. If we've learned anything about pet owners, it's that they're willing to spend big bucks to ensure the well-being of their four-legged family members.\nTrupanion, which recently lifted the hood on its first-quarter operating results, isclosing in on 1 million total enrolled pets(943,854 at the end of Q1 2021). Amazingly, this only represents a little over 1% penetration of the U.S. market. In the U.K., about 1 in 4 pet owners purchases insurance for their cat or dog. If Trupanion can achieve a similar penetration rate, its addressable market would be more than $32 billion.\nThis is a company that's spent two decades building up rapport with veterinarians and their staff at the clinical level. It's also the only major companion animal health insurance provider with software capable of handling payment to veterinarians at the time of checkout.\nThe sky is the limit for Trupanion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104182802,"gmtCreate":1620363716206,"gmtModify":1704342615396,"author":{"id":"3582162665278371","authorId":"3582162665278371","name":"Nana娜娜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582162665278371","authorIdStr":"3582162665278371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","listText":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","text":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104182802","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157328258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul><p>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p>Some explanations:</p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul><p>Here is the model itself:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p>Final thoughts</p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 12:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company><strong>Seeking alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":190688356,"gmtCreate":1620615956075,"gmtModify":1704345591705,"author":{"id":"3582162665278371","authorId":"3582162665278371","name":"Nana娜娜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582162665278371","authorIdStr":"3582162665278371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanka","listText":"Thanka","text":"Thanka","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190688356","repostId":"1171756066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104182802,"gmtCreate":1620363716206,"gmtModify":1704342615396,"author":{"id":"3582162665278371","authorId":"3582162665278371","name":"Nana娜娜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582162665278371","authorIdStr":"3582162665278371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","listText":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","text":"Since vanguard s&p500 holds 3.7% of Amazon stock in its index, would it be safer to just buy the etf rather than face the volatility in buying the stock itself?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104182802","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
