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2022-11-25

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Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie

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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966925013","repostId":"2285438248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285438248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669363390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285438248?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-25 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285438248","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>We are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.</li><li>We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.</li><li>Valuation is stretched considering growth has slowed to a crawl, and that does not even account for what a mild or moderate recession could look like.</li><li>There are major issues with production.</li><li>Let it fall.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98aaa6991c907012babe7fa574645eb8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>kimberrywood/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>We want to start this column by stating that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of our core holdings, and our analysts all own it in their personal long-term accounts for close to a decade. But, when Apple surged inlate summer, we started selling chunks of the position. We are short-term bearish here, though we are buyers lower. Look, this is one of the greatest companies ever. No doubt. But, this is still a stock, and we like to trade around the core position. In this column, we highlight fundamental concerns that we have in the near-term. We are glad we were selling on strength in September and again in late October. Now, we sold more small pieces of more than just Apple, but it was our take that we could come back to Apple and repurchase the shares at better levels, and a more reasonable valuation. Shares are now down about 12% from where we sold some, and about 7% from our last round of selling. We want the stock to come lower before coming back in. The market has been up big the last few weeks, and Apple has not done much. Apple also has a lot of problems in China. It also has chip issues, and there are questions on demand. We would let it drop ideally to $130 again, which we think is easily in the cards. It will only take a few bad sessions, and we are in an interest rate hiking cycle. Like it or not, the market right now may be a touch overbought, even though it was recovering from an oversold situation. Use this to your advantage to compound gains in this great stock. Let it come down.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b276b117db7b1fe6933c4048b4d34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BAD BEAT Investing</span></p><p>Here is how we would play this. This trade is outlined for possible new money coming into the stock. We do think we are in a mild buy zone in the mid $140s, and a strong buy zone in the low 130s. We suspect shares will fall, we are bearish short-term, but here is how we would get long.</p><p>The play</p><p>Target entry 1: $144-$145 (25% of position)</p><p>Target entry 2: $135-$136 (30% of position)</p><p>Target entry 3: $130-$131 (45% of position)</p><p>With the VIX down to about 21, call options can be purchased. Frankly, with the high volume and liquidity, we like LEAPS. Go out 13 months, and look to $150 strikes. You can also scale into them, and look to exit on a rally that puts you up at least 30%. Lots of time, and the calls are cheaper than they have been in months. We are short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.</p><h2>Performance discussion</h2><p>The performance of the company remains strong. The recently reported Q4 was well covered by many of our colleagues but we would like to reiterate a few highlights as they are integral to deciding to still hold a core position, even if we are trading around ours.</p><p>Yes, Q3 2022 was another fourth-quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion. These revenues rose nicely by 8% year-over-year. Folks, once again there was solid growth in products and services. The company just grows reliably as it penetrates new markets, and continues to be a dominating brand. The products revenue jumped 9% to $71.0 billion vs. $65.1 billion a year ago. Within the products there was strength in all lines except iPad. Could consumers be saturated with products? The question is whether consumers will now delay upgrades with a possible recession coming. The risk is real. It does not mean the company is going to see massive declines. But the pace of growth could potentially stall to flat if the recession is moderate. iPhone continues to be a winner, with iPhone revenue of $42.6 billion vs. $38.9 billion a year ago, a 9.5% gain. Winning. Mac revenue rose a strong 25% to $11.5 billion. Strong, but this strength was offset by lower sales of iPads, where revenue fell 13.1% to $7.2 billion. But accessories and wearables remained strong as revenue grew 8.5% to $9.7 billion. At the same time, service revenue remains solid, which grew to $19.2 billion.</p><p>We think it is worth noting the gains, because it suggests demand is still robust. There have been questions on demand for devices, but thus far, it remains strong. The holiday quarter here will be telling, and we standby the risk to demand should recession hit. Margins remains strong, as the cost of sales rose at a commensurate pace with revenue growth. Gross margins were 53.7%. Stellar, but did dip from 54.0% last year. Very mildly bearish, but something to watch as inflation is leading to higher input and material cost, as well as labor. Operating expenses rose over 15%, with higher research and development costs weighing. Still, the company generated over $24 billion in operating cash flow, which is strong.</p><p>Overall, the EPS of $1.29 rose 4% from a year ago, and surpassed consensus by $0.02. Annual EPS was $6.11. At $150 the stock is relatively expensive at 24.5X trailing EPS. On a forward looking basis, we have concerns over impacts to both supply and demand, as well as rising costs. This makes us justified in our selling 20-25 points higher. Shares are expensive, but the growth was 9% from 2021 to 2022. We are overpaying for modest growth, even with all of the amazing innovation from the company, the solid cash hoard, share repurchases, and the dividends. Mathematically, there are concerns, but this is why we view $135 or less as a good entry. At that level, 22X is more reasonable, and, when we think about fiscal 2023 earnings, we are factoring in minimal growth, and continued cost pressures. We are looking for revenue to grow 2-3%, and EPS to be up 2%-5%, assuming we do face a mild recession, and lower if it is worse. An early look suggests $6.25-$6.45, not counting any possible future share repurchases. This is why we are cautious, but at the midpoint, and at our last leg, just over 20X EPS. That would still be richly valued, but we still assign brand name premium here, and have to give credit for the huge cash on hand.</p><h2>Now, why do we think shares can and will fall?</h2><p>There are several ongoing issues. Do not mistake possible slower rate hikes as lower rates. We are still hiking here folks. The Fed wants a slowdown in the economy, and if we see unemployment build, wages normalize, and a still elevated dollar, Apple will face pressure. It will not be immune. This is just reality. But we have deeper issues on the supply side of things, as well as possible demand concerns.</p><p>China is a huge risk here. Apple would likely love to be divorced from the company if it could, but right now, it relies heavily on international production. Folks, the ongoing Chinese &#34;zero-Covid policy&#34; has caused huge issues with new iPhone 14 Pro production. With all of the COVID lockdowns many employees have left Foxconn, and now they are down nearly 100,000 employees. They simply cannot replace them in time. As such, two weeks ago Apple warned shipments would be heavily impacted. The supplier just does not have the capacity to meet the order demand, but is trying to tweak production schedules in China.</p><p>Now, supposedly, there has been hopes of China easing off its zero COVID policy. Markets got super bullish on this news recently, but we are now learning there are massive outbreaks again. We find it very tough to believe China will back off fully on this stance, despite the economic carnage the draconian lockdowns have caused. The factories where Apple&#39;s products are made is still subject to restrictions. Cases are skyrocketing. We would love to be wrong, but we think you are going to see more COVID restrictions. To help meet some of the demand, Foxconn will boost production in India but this is a longer-term impact as it will take a few years to staff as needed.</p><p>These concerns have led to downgrades to shipment estimates. JP Morgan sees the impact being as many as 5 million less iPhones in the holiday quarter, and that is just for the 14. At about $1,000 a pop let&#39;s say, well, you can do the math, its impacting $5 billion of shipments. That is a problem.</p><p>Here is the other issue. Apple has to be very careful. If they irritate the very sensitive Chinese government, it could put about 1/5th of its revenues at stake.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1581e9fbec92a0c8dde081063f426c2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple 10-K October 2022</span></p><p>Folks, there are tons of sales in China. So it has to be very cautious and let China call the shots over there. If China hinted at some sort of ban or even limitations, the stock would crater.</p><p>For now, we believe the company will toe the line, and hope that China does ease its aggressive fight against COVID to help production. While the iPhones will eventually be shipped and revenue still come in, this is a good way to alienate customers who may not be as loyal as others and push them to other devices. This is a true risk.</p><h2>Take home</h2><p>Honestly we are bearish in the short-term, but want to use the weakness when it comes to do some buying. We rate the shares as bearish here, because we are near-term bearish. However, we have set up a trade. We have to wait for the pullback. The market has rallied hard. A few bad sessions is all it will take to lower Apple shares further. Any more negative news from China, or other production issues will hurt. Growth has stalled, and that is not even factoring in the potential impacts of a recession. Let it fall another 10% or so.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Quad 7 Capital</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Digesting This Souring Pie</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Digesting This Souring Pie\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.Valuation is stretched ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560362-apple-digesting-this-souring-pie","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285438248","content_text":"SummaryWe are short-term bearish on Apple, but outline a trade for when the stock falls again.We are still in a rate hike cycle, and the general market has rallied hard.Valuation is stretched considering growth has slowed to a crawl, and that does not even account for what a mild or moderate recession could look like.There are major issues with production.Let it fall.kimberrywood/iStock via Getty ImagesWe want to start this column by stating that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of our core holdings, and our analysts all own it in their personal long-term accounts for close to a decade. But, when Apple surged inlate summer, we started selling chunks of the position. We are short-term bearish here, though we are buyers lower. Look, this is one of the greatest companies ever. No doubt. But, this is still a stock, and we like to trade around the core position. In this column, we highlight fundamental concerns that we have in the near-term. We are glad we were selling on strength in September and again in late October. Now, we sold more small pieces of more than just Apple, but it was our take that we could come back to Apple and repurchase the shares at better levels, and a more reasonable valuation. Shares are now down about 12% from where we sold some, and about 7% from our last round of selling. We want the stock to come lower before coming back in. The market has been up big the last few weeks, and Apple has not done much. Apple also has a lot of problems in China. It also has chip issues, and there are questions on demand. We would let it drop ideally to $130 again, which we think is easily in the cards. It will only take a few bad sessions, and we are in an interest rate hiking cycle. Like it or not, the market right now may be a touch overbought, even though it was recovering from an oversold situation. Use this to your advantage to compound gains in this great stock. Let it come down.BAD BEAT InvestingHere is how we would play this. This trade is outlined for possible new money coming into the stock. We do think we are in a mild buy zone in the mid $140s, and a strong buy zone in the low 130s. We suspect shares will fall, we are bearish short-term, but here is how we would get long.The playTarget entry 1: $144-$145 (25% of position)Target entry 2: $135-$136 (30% of position)Target entry 3: $130-$131 (45% of position)With the VIX down to about 21, call options can be purchased. Frankly, with the high volume and liquidity, we like LEAPS. Go out 13 months, and look to $150 strikes. You can also scale into them, and look to exit on a rally that puts you up at least 30%. Lots of time, and the calls are cheaper than they have been in months. We are short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.Performance discussionThe performance of the company remains strong. The recently reported Q4 was well covered by many of our colleagues but we would like to reiterate a few highlights as they are integral to deciding to still hold a core position, even if we are trading around ours.Yes, Q3 2022 was another fourth-quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion. These revenues rose nicely by 8% year-over-year. Folks, once again there was solid growth in products and services. The company just grows reliably as it penetrates new markets, and continues to be a dominating brand. The products revenue jumped 9% to $71.0 billion vs. $65.1 billion a year ago. Within the products there was strength in all lines except iPad. Could consumers be saturated with products? The question is whether consumers will now delay upgrades with a possible recession coming. The risk is real. It does not mean the company is going to see massive declines. But the pace of growth could potentially stall to flat if the recession is moderate. iPhone continues to be a winner, with iPhone revenue of $42.6 billion vs. $38.9 billion a year ago, a 9.5% gain. Winning. Mac revenue rose a strong 25% to $11.5 billion. Strong, but this strength was offset by lower sales of iPads, where revenue fell 13.1% to $7.2 billion. But accessories and wearables remained strong as revenue grew 8.5% to $9.7 billion. At the same time, service revenue remains solid, which grew to $19.2 billion.We think it is worth noting the gains, because it suggests demand is still robust. There have been questions on demand for devices, but thus far, it remains strong. The holiday quarter here will be telling, and we standby the risk to demand should recession hit. Margins remains strong, as the cost of sales rose at a commensurate pace with revenue growth. Gross margins were 53.7%. Stellar, but did dip from 54.0% last year. Very mildly bearish, but something to watch as inflation is leading to higher input and material cost, as well as labor. Operating expenses rose over 15%, with higher research and development costs weighing. Still, the company generated over $24 billion in operating cash flow, which is strong.Overall, the EPS of $1.29 rose 4% from a year ago, and surpassed consensus by $0.02. Annual EPS was $6.11. At $150 the stock is relatively expensive at 24.5X trailing EPS. On a forward looking basis, we have concerns over impacts to both supply and demand, as well as rising costs. This makes us justified in our selling 20-25 points higher. Shares are expensive, but the growth was 9% from 2021 to 2022. We are overpaying for modest growth, even with all of the amazing innovation from the company, the solid cash hoard, share repurchases, and the dividends. Mathematically, there are concerns, but this is why we view $135 or less as a good entry. At that level, 22X is more reasonable, and, when we think about fiscal 2023 earnings, we are factoring in minimal growth, and continued cost pressures. We are looking for revenue to grow 2-3%, and EPS to be up 2%-5%, assuming we do face a mild recession, and lower if it is worse. An early look suggests $6.25-$6.45, not counting any possible future share repurchases. This is why we are cautious, but at the midpoint, and at our last leg, just over 20X EPS. That would still be richly valued, but we still assign brand name premium here, and have to give credit for the huge cash on hand.Now, why do we think shares can and will fall?There are several ongoing issues. Do not mistake possible slower rate hikes as lower rates. We are still hiking here folks. The Fed wants a slowdown in the economy, and if we see unemployment build, wages normalize, and a still elevated dollar, Apple will face pressure. It will not be immune. This is just reality. But we have deeper issues on the supply side of things, as well as possible demand concerns.China is a huge risk here. Apple would likely love to be divorced from the company if it could, but right now, it relies heavily on international production. Folks, the ongoing Chinese \"zero-Covid policy\" has caused huge issues with new iPhone 14 Pro production. With all of the COVID lockdowns many employees have left Foxconn, and now they are down nearly 100,000 employees. They simply cannot replace them in time. As such, two weeks ago Apple warned shipments would be heavily impacted. The supplier just does not have the capacity to meet the order demand, but is trying to tweak production schedules in China.Now, supposedly, there has been hopes of China easing off its zero COVID policy. Markets got super bullish on this news recently, but we are now learning there are massive outbreaks again. We find it very tough to believe China will back off fully on this stance, despite the economic carnage the draconian lockdowns have caused. The factories where Apple's products are made is still subject to restrictions. Cases are skyrocketing. We would love to be wrong, but we think you are going to see more COVID restrictions. To help meet some of the demand, Foxconn will boost production in India but this is a longer-term impact as it will take a few years to staff as needed.These concerns have led to downgrades to shipment estimates. JP Morgan sees the impact being as many as 5 million less iPhones in the holiday quarter, and that is just for the 14. At about $1,000 a pop let's say, well, you can do the math, its impacting $5 billion of shipments. That is a problem.Here is the other issue. Apple has to be very careful. If they irritate the very sensitive Chinese government, it could put about 1/5th of its revenues at stake.Apple 10-K October 2022Folks, there are tons of sales in China. So it has to be very cautious and let China call the shots over there. If China hinted at some sort of ban or even limitations, the stock would crater.For now, we believe the company will toe the line, and hope that China does ease its aggressive fight against COVID to help production. While the iPhones will eventually be shipped and revenue still come in, this is a good way to alienate customers who may not be as loyal as others and push them to other devices. This is a true risk.Take homeHonestly we are bearish in the short-term, but want to use the weakness when it comes to do some buying. We rate the shares as bearish here, because we are near-term bearish. However, we have set up a trade. We have to wait for the pullback. The market has rallied hard. A few bad sessions is all it will take to lower Apple shares further. Any more negative news from China, or other production issues will hurt. Growth has stalled, and that is not even factoring in the potential impacts of a recession. Let it fall another 10% or so.This article is written by Quad 7 Capital for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968928318,"gmtCreate":1669104211635,"gmtModify":1676538152682,"author":{"id":"3582281369851992","authorId":"3582281369851992","name":"law1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae83828837de5ea0e79d417b3182c7a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582281369851992","authorIdStr":"3582281369851992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968928318","repostId":"2285386886","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285386886","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669104486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285386886?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285386886","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.</li><li>But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.</li><li>The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.</li><li>There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.</li><li>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511f126f81b7dac4ef1687fe1d622bbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jamie McCarthy</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79878ff126c58641fbbd5a5aa3c0b334\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Dataroma.com</span></p><p>The surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&amp;D yield that is even better than AAPL.</p><p>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.</p><p>The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9d37af226f63d9047697f699ffa010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: The World Bank</span></p><h2>TSM’s valuation advantage</h2><p>First, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.</p><p>To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let&#39;s compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.</p><p>Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&amp;D investments and also superb R&amp;D yield that even surpasses AAPL.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9101b641f06753dca5fee60c5e18ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>TSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&amp;D</h2><p>As detailed in our earlier articles:</p><blockquote><i>We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&amp;D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&amp;D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&amp;D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&amp;D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).</i></blockquote><p>And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&amp;D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&amp;D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:</p><ul><li>TSM has been investing very consistently in R&amp;D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.</li><li>AAPL&#39;s R&amp;D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it &#34;has nothing to do with how much R&amp;D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&amp;D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.</li><li>So even at AAPL’s current R&amp;D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&amp;D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ba62925d409c0646d95b62223ef4b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>More impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&amp;D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&amp;D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&amp;D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&amp;D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&amp;D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&amp;D cycle. And the key observations are:</p><ul><li>The R&amp;D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.</li><li>AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&amp;D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&amp;D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.</li><li>To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&amp;D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.</li><li>Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&amp;D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e8c1b1427c0babf39d38ec60269d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Both enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own category</h2><p>To me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&amp;A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:</p><p>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RR</p><p>The ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.</p><p>In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.</p><p>So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b3ddd710705df7ba8e09cb93f9b81a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thought</h2><p>But to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&amp;D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.</p><p>And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285386886","content_text":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.Jamie McCarthyThe investment thesisAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.Source: Dataroma.comThe surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&D yield that is even better than AAPL.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.Source: The World BankTSM’s valuation advantageFirst, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let's compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&D investments and also superb R&D yield that even surpasses AAPL.Source: Seeking Alpha dataTSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&DAs detailed in our earlier articles:We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:TSM has been investing very consistently in R&D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.AAPL's R&D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it \"has nothing to do with how much R&D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.So even at AAPL’s current R&D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.Source: AuthorMore impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&D cycle. And the key observations are:The R&D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own categoryTo me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RRThe ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtBut to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. 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Commendable that you are holding through the volatility. Long term investing for the win!","text":"Its been a tough ride. Commendable that you are holding through the volatility. Long term investing for the win!","html":"Its been a tough ride. Commendable that you are holding through the volatility. 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