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我是小米啊
2022-12-28
1
@胖虎福利:【有獎互動】 互聯網價值重估→ 和虎友一起展望2023恆生科技
我是小米啊
2022-11-24
1
@人间像素:數字實業新青年，開小超市的 Z 世代
我是小米啊
2022-11-01
1
@零碳风云:生態環境部透露“雙碳”重點工作：重啓CCER、碳足跡認證
我是小米啊
2021-07-30
1
@我是小米啊:[財迷] [財迷] [財迷] [財迷] [財迷]
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互聯網價值重估→ 和虎友一起展望2023恆生科技","htmlText":"2022年馬上就要結束了，過去的一年裏，市場行情跌宕起伏，我們經歷了市場的千股下跌，也看到了諸多公司的韌性增長。作爲盈利性改善的代表，快手在過去一年國內業務連續兩季度實現盈利，其中Q3經營利潤超3.75億元，環比增長近3倍；總營收同比增長12.9%至231億元，又讓市場窺見其成長股向價值股定位遷移的端倪。此外以直播短視頻起家的快手，似乎擁有了更多的打開方式，從電商近萬億GMV到直播招聘網羅全國藍領，從2-3分鐘的短劇爆火到主播賣房動輒億元成交...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={"liveId":"1753300679010381"}\" 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Z 世代","htmlText":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 世代”。她打扮時髦，喜歡穿一身黑色，畫精緻的眼線，一頭悶青色的長髮隨意地盤在腦後，做事幹脆利落。艾琳管理下的店鋪充斥着年輕的氣息：零","listText":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 世代”。她打扮時髦，喜歡穿一身黑色，畫精緻的眼線，一頭悶青色的長髮隨意地盤在腦後，做事幹脆利落。艾琳管理下的店鋪充斥着年輕的氣息：零","text":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 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互聯網價值重估→ 和虎友一起展望2023恆生科技","htmlText":"2022年馬上就要結束了，過去的一年裏，市場行情跌宕起伏，我們經歷了市場的千股下跌，也看到了諸多公司的韌性增長。作爲盈利性改善的代表，快手在過去一年國內業務連續兩季度實現盈利，其中Q3經營利潤超3.75億元，環比增長近3倍；總營收同比增長12.9%至231億元，又讓市場窺見其成長股向價值股定位遷移的端倪。此外以直播短視頻起家的快手，似乎擁有了更多的打開方式，從電商近萬億GMV到直播招聘網羅全國藍領，從2-3分鐘的短劇爆火到主播賣房動輒億元成交...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={"liveId":"1753300679010381"}\" target=\"_blank\">【觀看直播12/29晚7點：2023年我們如何理解快手】</a>任選以下內容方向在本貼留言評論，優質評論發佈者將有機會獲得快手周邊哦～2023年，國內外春江水暖，被低估一年的恆生科技能否率先走出行情？以快手爲代表的的互聯網公司探索數實融合、產業滲透，是全新的故事還是昨天的船票？評分標準內容深度50分+內容人氣30分+內容形式豐富度20分獎品信息TOP1：「錦鯉大禮包：大丈虎抱枕+盲盒+充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP2~4：「充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP5~10：「鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」活動時間2022年12月28日---2023年1月15日獎勵發放獲獎信息將於活動結束後15個工作日內由胖虎福利發佈獲獎公示貼，並在名單公佈一週後爲虎友統一派發獎品；若遇產品缺貨，將會替換成其他等價產品。活動說明留言禁止盜圖、P圖、抄襲，一經發現取消本次活動參與資格；水貼、重複貼、廣告、惡意營銷均屬無效內容；如用戶在活動期間存在作弊等違反公開、公平、公正原則的違規行爲，老虎有權取消相應用戶的參與及領取獎品的資格、","listText":"2022年馬上就要結束了，過去的一年裏，市場行情跌宕起伏，我們經歷了市場的千股下跌，也看到了諸多公司的韌性增長。作爲盈利性改善的代表，快手在過去一年國內業務連續兩季度實現盈利，其中Q3經營利潤超3.75億元，環比增長近3倍；總營收同比增長12.9%至231億元，又讓市場窺見其成長股向價值股定位遷移的端倪。此外以直播短視頻起家的快手，似乎擁有了更多的打開方式，從電商近萬億GMV到直播招聘網羅全國藍領，從2-3分鐘的短劇爆火到主播賣房動輒億元成交...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={"liveId":"1753300679010381"}\" target=\"_blank\">【觀看直播12/29晚7點：2023年我們如何理解快手】</a>任選以下內容方向在本貼留言評論，優質評論發佈者將有機會獲得快手周邊哦～2023年，國內外春江水暖，被低估一年的恆生科技能否率先走出行情？以快手爲代表的的互聯網公司探索數實融合、產業滲透，是全新的故事還是昨天的船票？評分標準內容深度50分+內容人氣30分+內容形式豐富度20分獎品信息TOP1：「錦鯉大禮包：大丈虎抱枕+盲盒+充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP2~4：「充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP5~10：「鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」活動時間2022年12月28日---2023年1月15日獎勵發放獲獎信息將於活動結束後15個工作日內由胖虎福利發佈獲獎公示貼，並在名單公佈一週後爲虎友統一派發獎品；若遇產品缺貨，將會替換成其他等價產品。活動說明留言禁止盜圖、P圖、抄襲，一經發現取消本次活動參與資格；水貼、重複貼、廣告、惡意營銷均屬無效內容；如用戶在活動期間存在作弊等違反公開、公平、公正原則的違規行爲，老虎有權取消相應用戶的參與及領取獎品的資格、","text":"2022年馬上就要結束了，過去的一年裏，市場行情跌宕起伏，我們經歷了市場的千股下跌，也看到了諸多公司的韌性增長。作爲盈利性改善的代表，快手在過去一年國內業務連續兩季度實現盈利，其中Q3經營利潤超3.75億元，環比增長近3倍；總營收同比增長12.9%至231億元，又讓市場窺見其成長股向價值股定位遷移的端倪。此外以直播短視頻起家的快手，似乎擁有了更多的打開方式，從電商近萬億GMV到直播招聘網羅全國藍領，從2-3分鐘的短劇爆火到主播賣房動輒億元成交...【觀看直播12/29晚7點：2023年我們如何理解快手】任選以下內容方向在本貼留言評論，優質評論發佈者將有機會獲得快手周邊哦～2023年，國內外春江水暖，被低估一年的恆生科技能否率先走出行情？以快手爲代表的的互聯網公司探索數實融合、產業滲透，是全新的故事還是昨天的船票？評分標準內容深度50分+內容人氣30分+內容形式豐富度20分獎品信息TOP1：「錦鯉大禮包：大丈虎抱枕+盲盒+充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP2~4：「充電寶+鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」TOP5~10：「鼠標墊+毛絨公仔」活動時間2022年12月28日---2023年1月15日獎勵發放獲獎信息將於活動結束後15個工作日內由胖虎福利發佈獲獎公示貼，並在名單公佈一週後爲虎友統一派發獎品；若遇產品缺貨，將會替換成其他等價產品。活動說明留言禁止盜圖、P圖、抄襲，一經發現取消本次活動參與資格；水貼、重複貼、廣告、惡意營銷均屬無效內容；如用戶在活動期間存在作弊等違反公開、公平、公正原則的違規行爲，老虎有權取消相應用戶的參與及領取獎品的資格、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5c51817c9c99c5570fff20b1230d12","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/621844804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620058765,"gmtCreate":1669246601159,"gmtModify":1676538171937,"author":{"id":"3582283610873401","authorId":"3582283610873401","name":"我是小米啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbea4ff0bd79aa1850936e939e246cb5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582283610873401","idStr":"3582283610873401"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620058765","repostId":"620019764","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":620019764,"gmtCreate":1669205715661,"gmtModify":1676538167214,"author":{"id":"3472638315973538","authorId":"3472638315973538","name":"人间像素","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/223f26893463c3589d131869cd80341c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472638315973538","idStr":"3472638315973538"},"themes":[],"title":"數字實業新青年，開小超市的 Z 世代","htmlText":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 世代”。她打扮時髦，喜歡穿一身黑色，畫精緻的眼線，一頭悶青色的長髮隨意地盤在腦後，做事幹脆利落。艾琳管理下的店鋪充斥着年輕的氣息：零","listText":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 世代”。她打扮時髦，喜歡穿一身黑色，畫精緻的眼線，一頭悶青色的長髮隨意地盤在腦後，做事幹脆利落。艾琳管理下的店鋪充斥着年輕的氣息：零","text":"今年 20 歲出頭的艾琳從大學畢業即創業，在北京海淀區經營了一家百平米的小超市。和同齡人一樣，艾琳喜歡密室逃脫和去網紅店打卡。創業這件事有些偶然，她沒寫滿篇“閉環”、“用戶痛點”之類詞彙的商業計劃書，也沒跟人聊過新消費浪潮，只是出國讀書的計劃擱淺，家裏需要有人幫忙把超市接起來。父母想放手讓她去幹，艾琳也接受了這個考驗。“我爸告訴過我一句話，超市裏的小事很多，如果你能把所有的瑣事都處理好，做別的任何事情都沒有問題。”如今，她已經從一個青澀的學生蛻變成合格的店鋪經營者，把小店打理得井井有條。和她相比，32 歲的小高已經是“資深店主”了。他的店鋪在西直門附近，賣零食和日用百貨。但小高不滿足於只坐在店裏收錢，他在社交平臺上建起了社區團購羣，用“線上+線下”雙渠道銷售模式，招攬了不少忠實的“粉絲”。今年 11 月，他的第二家小店也準備開張了，店鋪選在北京西站附近，規模也比第一家店翻了三倍。有數據顯示，小型食雜店——即俗稱的“夫妻店”，在全國的數量高達 700 萬， 是連鎖便利店數量的70倍左右，出貨量佔我國零售市場 40%左右，可以說是最重要的終端形式之一。像艾琳和小高這樣的新時代終端經營者，正在用數字化和新思路改變傳統的經營模式。他們也因此有了個共同的名字——數字實業新青年。年輕人的超市，更有人情味今年 4 月剛接手小店的時候，艾琳過了一段手忙腳亂的日子。店鋪事情繁雜，小到從哪裏進到新鮮的蔬菜，大到計算當日的收益，每件事她都要重頭學起，經常從早上忙到夜裏兩三點。經過半年的磨鍊，現在艾琳不僅學會了對進貨打價、處理客訴，還能把員工的工作安排妥當。她的脾氣也好了不少，偶爾有顧客因爲小事抱怨，她也會鞠躬道歉，處理得讓大家都滿意。“00 後”艾琳是個標準的“Z 世代”。她打扮時髦，喜歡穿一身黑色，畫精緻的眼線，一頭悶青色的長髮隨意地盤在腦後，做事幹脆利落。艾琳管理下的店鋪充斥着年輕的氣息：零","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85920fb19260b3bac7b23f651ca2e497","width":"632","height":"422"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b945e6d02b896dbfb36157504bf18e","width":"632","height":"474"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ec4617fde0cf1c863de3d2798611b7","width":"632","height":"422"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620019764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669445819,"gmtCreate":1662598388735,"gmtModify":1676537096650,"author":{"id":"3582283610873401","authorId":"3582283610873401","name":"我是小米啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbea4ff0bd79aa1850936e939e246cb5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582283610873401","idStr":"3582283610873401"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/669445819","repostId":"669409236","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":669409236,"gmtCreate":1662539880000,"gmtModify":1676537083981,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577852034187700","idStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"9月7日0-15時，北京新增本土感染者7例，涉昌平和海淀","htmlText":"據北京日報客戶端消息，9月7日，在北京市新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情防控工作第394場新聞發佈會上，北京市疾控中心副主任劉曉峯介紹，9月6日0時至24時，新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者14例，其中，昌平區13例、海淀區1例；輕型13例、普通型1例。 9月7日0時至15時，北京新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者7例，均爲隔離觀察人員，其中，昌平區5例、海淀區2例；普通型1例、輕型4例、無症狀感染者2例。上述病例已轉至定點醫院隔離治療，已開展流行病學調查和密切接觸者追蹤，對涉及的風險點位進行排查，對各類風險人員實施分類管控。","listText":"據北京日報客戶端消息，9月7日，在北京市新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情防控工作第394場新聞發佈會上，北京市疾控中心副主任劉曉峯介紹，9月6日0時至24時，新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者14例，其中，昌平區13例、海淀區1例；輕型13例、普通型1例。 9月7日0時至15時，北京新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者7例，均爲隔離觀察人員，其中，昌平區5例、海淀區2例；普通型1例、輕型4例、無症狀感染者2例。上述病例已轉至定點醫院隔離治療，已開展流行病學調查和密切接觸者追蹤，對涉及的風險點位進行排查，對各類風險人員實施分類管控。","text":"據北京日報客戶端消息，9月7日，在北京市新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情防控工作第394場新聞發佈會上，北京市疾控中心副主任劉曉峯介紹，9月6日0時至24時，新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者14例，其中，昌平區13例、海淀區1例；輕型13例、普通型1例。 9月7日0時至15時，北京新增本土新冠肺炎病毒感染者7例，均爲隔離觀察人員，其中，昌平區5例、海淀區2例；普通型1例、輕型4例、無症狀感染者2例。上述病例已轉至定點醫院隔離治療，已開展流行病學調查和密切接觸者追蹤，對涉及的風險點位進行排查，對各類風險人員實施分類管控。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/669409236","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669117942,"gmtCreate":1662132508388,"gmtModify":1676537005263,"author":{"id":"3582283610873401","authorId":"3582283610873401","name":"我是小米啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbea4ff0bd79aa1850936e939e246cb5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582283610873401","idStr":"3582283610873401"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/669117942","repostId":"2264297886","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2264297886","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662075392,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2264297886?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-02 07:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Value Investment Master Changwen Warning: U.S. Stock \"Super Bubble\" Burst is about to be staged","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264297886","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"要为“史诗级”结局做好准备。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Super bubble\" will not escape the fate of value return. The higher it rises, the longer and worse it will fall.</p><p>On August 31, Jeremy Grantham, a famous value investment guru and co-founder and chief strategist of asset management company GMO, published the article \"Entering the Superbubble's final Act\",<b>Warn that the bursting of the \"super bubble\" in U.S. stocks is about to enter the final stage, and be prepared for the \"epic\" ending.</b></p><p>Now Grantham has blown the whistle to the world again, bluntly saying that the \"super bubble\" will eventually return its value. He has successfully predicted the Japanese stock market crash in 1989, the Internet stock bubble crash in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</p><p>Since U.S. stocks emerged from the decline in the first half of the year, Wall Street has debated \"whether it is a bear market rebound or a bull market\". Grantham believes that,<b>The statement that US stocks ushered in a bull market is simply nonsense. The summer rebound is in line with the stage of bear market rebound in the \"super bubble\", and the next step will usher in the complete bursting of the bubble.</b></p><p>Grantham noted that the superbubble of the moment is an unprecedented mix of multiple bubble crises, with the three major asset classes — housing, stocks and bonds — all significantly overvalued at the end of last year. Now, there's the soaring inflation and interest rate shocks of the early 1970s. To make matters worse, commodity and energy prices have risen, and these commodity shocks tend to cast a shadow over long-term economic growth.</p><p><b>And the super bubble of all developed countries' stock markets will not escape the fate of returning value.</b>Therefore, the higher the price and the prolonged return to the mean, the heavier the loss.</p><p><b>Here is the original translation of the article:</b></p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>In the investment career of market participants, only a few market events play a pivotal role, and the most important one is the \"super bubble\". \"Super bubble\" is different from other market events. There are only a few super bubbles in history for reference, and they have a series of distinct common characteristics.</p><p>A typical feature of this is a bear market rally, which often follows the initial big drop, but is accompanied by the bursting of a \"super bubble\" before the economy starts to deteriorate significantly. Looking at the first three \"super bubbles\" in a century, the rally typically rose by more than half, attracting unwary investors back, followed by another plunge (worse than the initial one), and the overall economy began to weaken. This summer's rebound in U.S. stocks fits perfectly into that pattern.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, although high inflation has been eroding valuations, US stocks are still \"quite expensive\", and it is worth mentioning that this erosion rate is slower than before. However, now that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are starting to deteriorate sharply at a surprising rate, with multiple negative factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the food and energy crisis, and record fiscal austerity coexisting, the outlook for U.S. stocks is more severe than in the first half of the year. In the long run, widespread and persistent food and resource shortages pose threats, compounded by accelerating climate destruction.</p><p>The current super bubble is characterized by the existence of bubble crises in various asset classes at the same time. The bond market, housing market and stock market are all seriously overvalued, and they are rapidly losing their upward momentum. The impact of commodities persists and the \"eagle\" sound of the Federal Reserve rages. Each cycle is different and unique — but every historical analogue shows that the worst is yet to come.</p><p><b>Text:</b></p><p><b>For investors, the truly critical period</b></p><p>Most of the time (around 85%), the market operates in an orderly manner and performs normally. During these periods, investors (investment managers, clients and individuals) are more rational and satisfied.</p><p>But alas, these periods don't really matter, the other 15% of the time is the most important, and investors can get carried away and become irrational.</p><p>Among them, in most cases (about 12% of the time), this irrationality is excessive optimism, such as the short-squeezing tide of Meme stocks and the IPO frenzy in the past two years;</p><p>Rarely (about 3% of the time), as now and in the future, investors have panic-sold regardless of value. For example, the S&P fell to 666 in 2009, and the P/E for many stocks was as low as 2.5 times in 1974.</p><p>These moments of excitement and panic are most important to the portfolio and most dangerous to the investor's career. (The famous chapter 12 of Keynes's General Theory states that dancing with the bubble is the safest strategy for investment managers when it comes to bubbles. After all, their priority is to make big money in a bull market. Almost everyone reasonably employs this strategy.)</p><p>Fifteen percent of the moments are different from ordinary bull and bear markets, and averaging ordinary bull and bear markets with a handful of outliers affects the data and creates misleading signals. I strongly recommend treating \"super bubbles\" — asset prices deviating by 2.5 to 3 standard deviations from the mean — as special collective extremes, when investor behavior changes in stages.</p><p>After a long economic boom and a bull in the stock market, when the financial and economic systems look near perfect (especially with low inflation and high profit margins) and regulators are \"friendly\" (especially easing cheap and leveraged regulations), a flashpoint occurs, like a summer evening when thousands of flying ants hit at once.</p><p>Fortunately, there are examples of such events, and regardless of how value is defined, there is always a surge in arrogance, speculation and unrealistic fanaticism. This rare \"super bubble\" (there are only three super bubbles in modern America) ends differently: the discussion of conservative stocks and speculative stocks is much divergent; The bear market rally to be discussed later; The rapid outbreak of economic recession (so far, three super bubbles have led to three recessions, one of which was a mild recession-the 2000 U.S. technology bubble, and the other two caused severe recessions for the 1929 U.S. stock market bubble and the 1972 U.S. blue chip bubble); Finally, the likelihood of further unexpected financial and economic crises greatly increases.</p><p>We are in such a period-a real \"super bubble\" has been brewing for a long time. Ultimately, the super bubbles in the stock markets of all developed countries, as well as bubbles with asset prices deviating by more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, will not escape the fate of value return. Therefore, the higher the price, the longer the mean regression, the worse the fall.</p><p><b>Different stages of the super bubble</b></p><p>I believe that the bursting of the super bubble needs to go through multiple stages. First, foam forms; Second, the bubble contracted to a certain extent, as it did in the first half of the year, when problems in the economic or political environment made investors realize that perfection won't last forever after all, and valuations took a half-step backwards. Then there's bubble inflation — the bear market rally we've just seen. Finally, the bubble burst completely, the fundamentals of the economy deteriorated, and the market fell to an all-time low.</p><p>Let's get back to where we are today, a bear market rally in a super bubble is easier and faster than any other rally. Most investors feel that this stock was sold at $100 six months ago, so it must be cheap to buy it now at $50, $60 or $70.</p><p>In a bull market, setting a new high is slow and nervous, as investors realize that no one has ever bought the stock at this price before, and the stock price movement is usually four steps up and three steps down, carefully scooping up the highs that have never been reached. The opposite is true with a bear market rally, where a stock has been sold for $100 before and may be sold for $100 again afterwards.</p><p>From historical experience, the speed and scale of the bear market rally proves this.</p><p><ol><li>From the lows of November 1929 to the highs of April 1930, the stock market rebounded 46% — 55% of the losses recovered by the rally from the then highs as the benchmark.</li><li>In 1973, it rose 59% from its lows in the summer rally after the S&P 500 first fell.</li><li>In 2000, the Nasdaq rebounded 60% in just two months.</li><li>In 2022, at its intraday high on Aug. 16, the S&P rebounded 58% from its June low. So what has been experienced now so far is very similar to other super bubbles in history.</li></ol><b>The economy began to fall apart</b></p><p>Economic data inevitably lags behind the turning point of the economic cycle. Worse, when the stock market bubble burst in 2000 and 2007, data such as corporate profits and employment deteriorated. And it is during the beginning of the transition to a fundamental rout that there is usually a bear market rally.</p><p>Why are epic superbubbles always accompanied by major economic crises? Perhaps because it happens after a long period of accumulation of market and economic forces — and ultimately optimism is high. At its peak, the economy always looked near perfect: full employment, strong GDP, no inflation, record profit margins. This was true of 1929, 1972, 1999 and the Japanese housing bubble. Typical economic cycles and fundamentals are temporarily near perfect, and there is only one way to go for economic and financial data.</p><p>Our \"P/E interpretation\" (inputs that count P/E multiples over the same period) model reaches similar conclusions. Since the unprecedented lag in the second half of 2021, inflation has been a major factor in historical valuations<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>Which \"explains\" the first stage of the current super bubble.</p><p>The question for GMO is, why didn't the inflation spike in 2021 immediately have a bigger shock to the market P/E, a new player in the stock market unfamiliar with inflation? Overbelieving in the Fed's ability to support markets and therefore blindly believing that inflation is temporary?</p><p>The next phase of the model is likely to be driven by lower margins. Our best estimate is that P/E levels in the model will drop to 15x, compared to just under 20x currently, and the actual P/E rising from 30x to 34x in mid-August could be due to a bear market rally. (Of course, if the model is indeed driven by a near-term decline in margins, both valuation and P/E will fall. As you can see, that means a lot lower than we suggest!)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2a652a9890cfdb1db54310d06bf993\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>My previous reports \"The Last Song – The Asset Allocation Dilemma at the End of the Great Bubble\" and \"Starting the Wild Buzz – The American Asset Bubble Feast\" made a simple point: investor behavior in three near-perfect markets in the United States was insane, and a 2.5 standard deviation from the mean was followed by a 50% plunge. These reports say nothing about fundamentals other than expecting some deterioration. Now that we've been through the first phase of the bubble burst and a big rally in the bear market, we find the fundamentals far worse than expected.</p><p>Now, the world is focused on the impact of wartime issues such as inflation, interest rates and energy shortages on economic growth. In addition, there are some hidden \"near worries\". At the same time, long-term problems such as population, resources and climate are only getting worse and are now starting to worsen even in the short term.</p><p><b>Immediate worry</b></p><p><ul><li>The food/energy/fertilizer crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought more serious impacts in emerging economies (especially Africa) than European energy problems. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer that drove wheat/corn/soybean prices to record earlier this year. Rising food and energy prices are creating serious trade imbalances and civil unrest in the most vulnerable countries, for example, Sri Lanka's economy collapsed extremely rapidly, and the energy shock will now almost certainly plunge Europe into recession; While the U.S. market has long ignored foreign issues and mutual influence, global growth is sure to decline.</li><li>The housing weakness is reflected across the globe, for example, with US housing starts now rapidly falling below average, perhaps understandably given that rising mortgage rates have contributed to record housing affordability. Things look worse in countries where mortgages typically have floating rates. Historically, real estate has been the most important asset class to stabilize the economy.</li><li>It is now experiencing the worst fiscal austerity in history as governments in the United States and around the world withdraw Covid stimulus measures. Historically, there has been a close relationship between fiscal austerity and declining profit margins. Meanwhile, the new U.S. excise tax on share buybacks seems to signal that the U.S. government is beginning to change its stance on the \"eternal battle between labor and capital\" (which capital has been winning for decades), which could even trigger new antitrust action, which is good news for consumers but bad news for stock investors.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8321bdd595400f4f435aaf4f8928d874\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Foresight</b></p><p><ul><li>Population: Labor shortages are beginning in developed countries and will continue in an uncertain future, with declining birth rates coupled with rapid aging, dragging down growth and driving inflation.</li><li>Resources: Many metals, particularly those needed for decarbonisation, are inevitably in a supply crunch, lacking sufficient reserves – currently only 5-20% of demand – and with very low capital expenditures. It simply cannot be calculated, which clearly shows that our survival in any barely satisfactory conditions will depend on our success in replacement, recycling and new technologies. The second key resource shortage is fertilizer. Potash and phosphate are currently being mined and are also necessary for all life: a) limited; b) Extremely uneven distribution: Morocco controls 75% of the world's high-quality phosphate, and Russia and Belarus mine 45% of potassium.</li><li>Food: With soil degradation and erosion, freshwater shortages and increasing pest resistance, food productivity is slowing, with the UN Global Food Index recently hitting an all-time high, although Africa's population growth has outpaced the slowdown in other regions.</li><li>Climate change is out of control and India, Europe and North America have never experienced severe droughts, dangerous heat and fires at the same time. This is already so severe that it is dragging down global GDP: the Rhine is closed due to drought, affecting nearly 20% of Germany's heavy transport; French nuclear power plants had to reduce production and river water was too hot to be used for cooling; Hydropower in Canada, Norway, India and elsewhere has also been reduced by low water levels; Rising temperatures in parts of India, Asia and Africa are suddenly high enough to cause health problems for those without air conditioning and working outdoors, especially farmers. The effects of a harsh agricultural climate are increasing global costs and may shake countries creating more poverty in the near future. It's all happening far faster than anyone could have expected 10 years ago.</li></ul>All of this to illustrate: these negative issues that have been on my mind (and hopefully yours) for years – climate, fertility, food and other resources – are now becoming \"near worries\" affecting inflation (up) and growth (down). In fact, overall, this poses a potential risk to the long-term viability of humans.</p><p><b>Preparing for 'epic' destruction</b></p><p>To take history as a guide, if the super bubble consisted of a multi-asset bubble crisis, the economic outlook after the bubble burst would be much worse. For example, the double bubble of stock market + housing market, the Japanese bubble in 1989 or the global bubble in 2006; Or, inflation and interest rate shocks + stock market bubbles, as happened in the US and elsewhere in 1973.</p><p>The superbubble of the moment is an unprecedented mix of multiple bubble crises, with the three major asset classes – housing, stocks and bonds – all significantly overvalued at the end of last year. Now, we're seeing the soaring inflation and interest rate shocks of the early 1970s. To make matters worse, commodity and energy prices have risen (as painfully as in 1972 and 2007), and these commodity shocks often cast a shadow over long-term economic growth.</p><p>Given all these negatives, it's no surprise that consumer and business confidence indices have fallen to all-time lows. In tech, the cutting edge of the U.S. (and global) economy, hiring has slowed, layoffs have increased, and CEOs are bracing for a recession.</p><p>Recently, we have seen a bear market rally, and so far it has performed perfectly in line with its three precedents, the bear market rally in the middle of the super bubble burst. If the bear market is over, it is inevitable that the super bubble that will be ushered in will burst completely.</p><p>Every cycle is different, and every government's response is unpredictable, but these epic superbubble bursts all seem to be on the same trajectory, playing out according to an established script, pausing between a bear market rally and a full-blown rout. If history repeats itself, it will turn into another tragedy, and we can only pray that the economic impact this time will be less than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Investment Master Changwen Warning: U.S. Stock \"Super Bubble\" Burst is about to be staged</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Investment Master Changwen Warning: U.S. Stock \"Super Bubble\" Burst is about to be staged\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-02 07:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Super bubble\" will not escape the fate of value return. The higher it rises, the longer and worse it will fall.</p><p>On August 31, Jeremy Grantham, a famous value investment guru and co-founder and chief strategist of asset management company GMO, published the article \"Entering the Superbubble's final Act\",<b>Warn that the bursting of the \"super bubble\" in U.S. stocks is about to enter the final stage, and be prepared for the \"epic\" ending.</b></p><p>Now Grantham has blown the whistle to the world again, bluntly saying that the \"super bubble\" will eventually return its value. He has successfully predicted the Japanese stock market crash in 1989, the Internet stock bubble crash in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</p><p>Since U.S. stocks emerged from the decline in the first half of the year, Wall Street has debated \"whether it is a bear market rebound or a bull market\". Grantham believes that,<b>The statement that US stocks ushered in a bull market is simply nonsense. The summer rebound is in line with the stage of bear market rebound in the \"super bubble\", and the next step will usher in the complete bursting of the bubble.</b></p><p>Grantham noted that the superbubble of the moment is an unprecedented mix of multiple bubble crises, with the three major asset classes — housing, stocks and bonds — all significantly overvalued at the end of last year. Now, there's the soaring inflation and interest rate shocks of the early 1970s. To make matters worse, commodity and energy prices have risen, and these commodity shocks tend to cast a shadow over long-term economic growth.</p><p><b>And the super bubble of all developed countries' stock markets will not escape the fate of returning value.</b>Therefore, the higher the price and the prolonged return to the mean, the heavier the loss.</p><p><b>Here is the original translation of the article:</b></p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>In the investment career of market participants, only a few market events play a pivotal role, and the most important one is the \"super bubble\". \"Super bubble\" is different from other market events. There are only a few super bubbles in history for reference, and they have a series of distinct common characteristics.</p><p>A typical feature of this is a bear market rally, which often follows the initial big drop, but is accompanied by the bursting of a \"super bubble\" before the economy starts to deteriorate significantly. Looking at the first three \"super bubbles\" in a century, the rally typically rose by more than half, attracting unwary investors back, followed by another plunge (worse than the initial one), and the overall economy began to weaken. This summer's rebound in U.S. stocks fits perfectly into that pattern.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, although high inflation has been eroding valuations, US stocks are still \"quite expensive\", and it is worth mentioning that this erosion rate is slower than before. However, now that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are starting to deteriorate sharply at a surprising rate, with multiple negative factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the food and energy crisis, and record fiscal austerity coexisting, the outlook for U.S. stocks is more severe than in the first half of the year. In the long run, widespread and persistent food and resource shortages pose threats, compounded by accelerating climate destruction.</p><p>The current super bubble is characterized by the existence of bubble crises in various asset classes at the same time. The bond market, housing market and stock market are all seriously overvalued, and they are rapidly losing their upward momentum. The impact of commodities persists and the \"eagle\" sound of the Federal Reserve rages. Each cycle is different and unique — but every historical analogue shows that the worst is yet to come.</p><p><b>Text:</b></p><p><b>For investors, the truly critical period</b></p><p>Most of the time (around 85%), the market operates in an orderly manner and performs normally. During these periods, investors (investment managers, clients and individuals) are more rational and satisfied.</p><p>But alas, these periods don't really matter, the other 15% of the time is the most important, and investors can get carried away and become irrational.</p><p>Among them, in most cases (about 12% of the time), this irrationality is excessive optimism, such as the short-squeezing tide of Meme stocks and the IPO frenzy in the past two years;</p><p>Rarely (about 3% of the time), as now and in the future, investors have panic-sold regardless of value. For example, the S&P fell to 666 in 2009, and the P/E for many stocks was as low as 2.5 times in 1974.</p><p>These moments of excitement and panic are most important to the portfolio and most dangerous to the investor's career. (The famous chapter 12 of Keynes's General Theory states that dancing with the bubble is the safest strategy for investment managers when it comes to bubbles. After all, their priority is to make big money in a bull market. Almost everyone reasonably employs this strategy.)</p><p>Fifteen percent of the moments are different from ordinary bull and bear markets, and averaging ordinary bull and bear markets with a handful of outliers affects the data and creates misleading signals. I strongly recommend treating \"super bubbles\" — asset prices deviating by 2.5 to 3 standard deviations from the mean — as special collective extremes, when investor behavior changes in stages.</p><p>After a long economic boom and a bull in the stock market, when the financial and economic systems look near perfect (especially with low inflation and high profit margins) and regulators are \"friendly\" (especially easing cheap and leveraged regulations), a flashpoint occurs, like a summer evening when thousands of flying ants hit at once.</p><p>Fortunately, there are examples of such events, and regardless of how value is defined, there is always a surge in arrogance, speculation and unrealistic fanaticism. This rare \"super bubble\" (there are only three super bubbles in modern America) ends differently: the discussion of conservative stocks and speculative stocks is much divergent; The bear market rally to be discussed later; The rapid outbreak of economic recession (so far, three super bubbles have led to three recessions, one of which was a mild recession-the 2000 U.S. technology bubble, and the other two caused severe recessions for the 1929 U.S. stock market bubble and the 1972 U.S. blue chip bubble); Finally, the likelihood of further unexpected financial and economic crises greatly increases.</p><p>We are in such a period-a real \"super bubble\" has been brewing for a long time. Ultimately, the super bubbles in the stock markets of all developed countries, as well as bubbles with asset prices deviating by more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, will not escape the fate of value return. Therefore, the higher the price, the longer the mean regression, the worse the fall.</p><p><b>Different stages of the super bubble</b></p><p>I believe that the bursting of the super bubble needs to go through multiple stages. First, foam forms; Second, the bubble contracted to a certain extent, as it did in the first half of the year, when problems in the economic or political environment made investors realize that perfection won't last forever after all, and valuations took a half-step backwards. Then there's bubble inflation — the bear market rally we've just seen. Finally, the bubble burst completely, the fundamentals of the economy deteriorated, and the market fell to an all-time low.</p><p>Let's get back to where we are today, a bear market rally in a super bubble is easier and faster than any other rally. Most investors feel that this stock was sold at $100 six months ago, so it must be cheap to buy it now at $50, $60 or $70.</p><p>In a bull market, setting a new high is slow and nervous, as investors realize that no one has ever bought the stock at this price before, and the stock price movement is usually four steps up and three steps down, carefully scooping up the highs that have never been reached. The opposite is true with a bear market rally, where a stock has been sold for $100 before and may be sold for $100 again afterwards.</p><p>From historical experience, the speed and scale of the bear market rally proves this.</p><p><ol><li>From the lows of November 1929 to the highs of April 1930, the stock market rebounded 46% — 55% of the losses recovered by the rally from the then highs as the benchmark.</li><li>In 1973, it rose 59% from its lows in the summer rally after the S&P 500 first fell.</li><li>In 2000, the Nasdaq rebounded 60% in just two months.</li><li>In 2022, at its intraday high on Aug. 16, the S&P rebounded 58% from its June low. So what has been experienced now so far is very similar to other super bubbles in history.</li></ol><b>The economy began to fall apart</b></p><p>Economic data inevitably lags behind the turning point of the economic cycle. Worse, when the stock market bubble burst in 2000 and 2007, data such as corporate profits and employment deteriorated. And it is during the beginning of the transition to a fundamental rout that there is usually a bear market rally.</p><p>Why are epic superbubbles always accompanied by major economic crises? Perhaps because it happens after a long period of accumulation of market and economic forces — and ultimately optimism is high. At its peak, the economy always looked near perfect: full employment, strong GDP, no inflation, record profit margins. This was true of 1929, 1972, 1999 and the Japanese housing bubble. Typical economic cycles and fundamentals are temporarily near perfect, and there is only one way to go for economic and financial data.</p><p>Our \"P/E interpretation\" (inputs that count P/E multiples over the same period) model reaches similar conclusions. Since the unprecedented lag in the second half of 2021, inflation has been a major factor in historical valuations<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>Which \"explains\" the first stage of the current super bubble.</p><p>The question for GMO is, why didn't the inflation spike in 2021 immediately have a bigger shock to the market P/E, a new player in the stock market unfamiliar with inflation? Overbelieving in the Fed's ability to support markets and therefore blindly believing that inflation is temporary?</p><p>The next phase of the model is likely to be driven by lower margins. Our best estimate is that P/E levels in the model will drop to 15x, compared to just under 20x currently, and the actual P/E rising from 30x to 34x in mid-August could be due to a bear market rally. (Of course, if the model is indeed driven by a near-term decline in margins, both valuation and P/E will fall. As you can see, that means a lot lower than we suggest!)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2a652a9890cfdb1db54310d06bf993\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>My previous reports \"The Last Song – The Asset Allocation Dilemma at the End of the Great Bubble\" and \"Starting the Wild Buzz – The American Asset Bubble Feast\" made a simple point: investor behavior in three near-perfect markets in the United States was insane, and a 2.5 standard deviation from the mean was followed by a 50% plunge. These reports say nothing about fundamentals other than expecting some deterioration. Now that we've been through the first phase of the bubble burst and a big rally in the bear market, we find the fundamentals far worse than expected.</p><p>Now, the world is focused on the impact of wartime issues such as inflation, interest rates and energy shortages on economic growth. In addition, there are some hidden \"near worries\". At the same time, long-term problems such as population, resources and climate are only getting worse and are now starting to worsen even in the short term.</p><p><b>Immediate worry</b></p><p><ul><li>The food/energy/fertilizer crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought more serious impacts in emerging economies (especially Africa) than European energy problems. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer that drove wheat/corn/soybean prices to record earlier this year. Rising food and energy prices are creating serious trade imbalances and civil unrest in the most vulnerable countries, for example, Sri Lanka's economy collapsed extremely rapidly, and the energy shock will now almost certainly plunge Europe into recession; While the U.S. market has long ignored foreign issues and mutual influence, global growth is sure to decline.</li><li>The housing weakness is reflected across the globe, for example, with US housing starts now rapidly falling below average, perhaps understandably given that rising mortgage rates have contributed to record housing affordability. Things look worse in countries where mortgages typically have floating rates. Historically, real estate has been the most important asset class to stabilize the economy.</li><li>It is now experiencing the worst fiscal austerity in history as governments in the United States and around the world withdraw Covid stimulus measures. Historically, there has been a close relationship between fiscal austerity and declining profit margins. Meanwhile, the new U.S. excise tax on share buybacks seems to signal that the U.S. government is beginning to change its stance on the \"eternal battle between labor and capital\" (which capital has been winning for decades), which could even trigger new antitrust action, which is good news for consumers but bad news for stock investors.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8321bdd595400f4f435aaf4f8928d874\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Foresight</b></p><p><ul><li>Population: Labor shortages are beginning in developed countries and will continue in an uncertain future, with declining birth rates coupled with rapid aging, dragging down growth and driving inflation.</li><li>Resources: Many metals, particularly those needed for decarbonisation, are inevitably in a supply crunch, lacking sufficient reserves – currently only 5-20% of demand – and with very low capital expenditures. It simply cannot be calculated, which clearly shows that our survival in any barely satisfactory conditions will depend on our success in replacement, recycling and new technologies. The second key resource shortage is fertilizer. Potash and phosphate are currently being mined and are also necessary for all life: a) limited; b) Extremely uneven distribution: Morocco controls 75% of the world's high-quality phosphate, and Russia and Belarus mine 45% of potassium.</li><li>Food: With soil degradation and erosion, freshwater shortages and increasing pest resistance, food productivity is slowing, with the UN Global Food Index recently hitting an all-time high, although Africa's population growth has outpaced the slowdown in other regions.</li><li>Climate change is out of control and India, Europe and North America have never experienced severe droughts, dangerous heat and fires at the same time. This is already so severe that it is dragging down global GDP: the Rhine is closed due to drought, affecting nearly 20% of Germany's heavy transport; French nuclear power plants had to reduce production and river water was too hot to be used for cooling; Hydropower in Canada, Norway, India and elsewhere has also been reduced by low water levels; Rising temperatures in parts of India, Asia and Africa are suddenly high enough to cause health problems for those without air conditioning and working outdoors, especially farmers. The effects of a harsh agricultural climate are increasing global costs and may shake countries creating more poverty in the near future. It's all happening far faster than anyone could have expected 10 years ago.</li></ul>All of this to illustrate: these negative issues that have been on my mind (and hopefully yours) for years – climate, fertility, food and other resources – are now becoming \"near worries\" affecting inflation (up) and growth (down). In fact, overall, this poses a potential risk to the long-term viability of humans.</p><p><b>Preparing for 'epic' destruction</b></p><p>To take history as a guide, if the super bubble consisted of a multi-asset bubble crisis, the economic outlook after the bubble burst would be much worse. For example, the double bubble of stock market + housing market, the Japanese bubble in 1989 or the global bubble in 2006; Or, inflation and interest rate shocks + stock market bubbles, as happened in the US and elsewhere in 1973.</p><p>The superbubble of the moment is an unprecedented mix of multiple bubble crises, with the three major asset classes – housing, stocks and bonds – all significantly overvalued at the end of last year. Now, we're seeing the soaring inflation and interest rate shocks of the early 1970s. To make matters worse, commodity and energy prices have risen (as painfully as in 1972 and 2007), and these commodity shocks often cast a shadow over long-term economic growth.</p><p>Given all these negatives, it's no surprise that consumer and business confidence indices have fallen to all-time lows. In tech, the cutting edge of the U.S. (and global) economy, hiring has slowed, layoffs have increased, and CEOs are bracing for a recession.</p><p>Recently, we have seen a bear market rally, and so far it has performed perfectly in line with its three precedents, the bear market rally in the middle of the super bubble burst. If the bear market is over, it is inevitable that the super bubble that will be ushered in will burst completely.</p><p>Every cycle is different, and every government's response is unpredictable, but these epic superbubble bursts all seem to be on the same trajectory, playing out according to an established script, pausing between a bear market rally and a full-blown rout. If history repeats itself, it will turn into another tragedy, and we can only pray that the economic impact this time will be less than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669290\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85cc11646c7e42bdd06bff7623956c9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669290","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264297886","content_text":"“超级泡沫”将难逃价值回归的宿命，涨得越高，最后也就跌得更久、更惨。8月31日，著名价值投资大师、资管公司GMO联合创始人兼首席策略师杰里米·格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）发表了文章《Entering the Superbubble’s final Act》，警告美股“超级泡沫”破灭即将进入最终阶段，要为“史诗级”结局做好准备。如今Grantham再次向世人吹响哨声，直言“超级泡沫”终将价值回归，他曾成功预言了日本1989年股市崩盘、2000年网络股泡沫崩盘与2008年次贷危机。自美股摆脱上半年的颓势以来，华尔街关于“究竟是熊市反弹还是迎来牛市”争论不休，Grantham认为，美股迎来牛市这一说法简直是胡扯，夏季反弹符合“超级泡沫”中熊市反弹的阶段，而下一步将迎来泡沫的彻底破灭。Grantham指出，当下的超级泡沫是前所未有的多重泡沫危机组合，三大资产类别——住房、股票和债券在去年年底都被严重高估。现在，出现了20世纪70年代初的通胀飙升和利率冲击。更糟糕的是，大宗商品和能源价格上涨，而这些大宗商品冲击往往给长期经济增长笼罩上一层阴影。而所有发达国家股市的超级泡沫将难逃价值回归的命运。因此，价格越高，均值回归旷日弥久，损失就越惨重。以下是文章原文翻译：摘要：在市场参与者的投资生涯中，只有少数市场事件举足轻重，其中极为重要的就是“超级泡沫”。“超级泡沫”不同于其他市场事件，历史上只有为数不多的几次超级泡沫可供参考，其具备一系列鲜明的共同特征。其中一个典型特征是熊市反弹，往往发生在最初的大跌之后，但在经济开始明显恶化之前，伴随着“超级泡沫”的破灭。从百年来的前三次“超级泡沫”来看，反弹通常上涨一半以上，吸引不谨慎的投资者归来，之后是再一次暴跌（比最初的更严重），整体经济也开始走弱。今年夏天的美股反弹完全符合这一模式。今年以来，尽管高通胀一直在侵蚀估值，但美股仍然“相当昂贵”，值得一提的是本次侵蚀速度要比以往更慢。然而，现在美国经济基本面开始以令人惊讶的速度急剧恶化，俄乌冲突、粮食和能源危机、创纪录的财政紧缩等多种利空因素并存，美股前景比上半年更为严峻。从长期来看，广泛而持久的粮食和资源短缺带来威胁，而气候破坏加快更是令其雪上加霜。当前的超级泡沫的特征是多种资产大类同时存在泡沫危机，债市、房市和股市皆被严重高估，正迅速失去上涨动能，大宗商品冲击持续存在和美联储“鹰”声肆起。每一个周期都是不同和独特的——但每一个历史类似现象都表明了，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。正文：对投资者来说，真正的关键时期大多数时候（85%左右），市场有序运转，表现正常。在这些时期，投资者（投资经理、客户和个人）都较为理性，感到满意。但是，唉，这些时期并不是真的要紧，另外15%的时间才是最重要的，投资者会被冲昏头脑，变得不理性。其中，大部分情况下（约12%的时间），这种非理性是过度乐观，比如过去两年中的Meme股逼空潮和IPO狂潮；少数情况（约3%的时间），正如目前和将来，投资者们不管价值如何，进行恐慌性抛售。例如，2009年标普指数跌至666点，1974年许多股票的市盈率低至2.5倍。这些兴奋和恐慌时刻对投资组合来说最为重要，于投资者的职业生涯最为危险。（凯恩斯《通论》著名的第12章指出，当泡沫来临时，与泡沫共舞是投资经理者最安全的策略，毕竟，他们的要务是在一个牛市中赚大钱。几乎每个人都合理地采用了这一策略。）15%的时刻不同于普通牛市和熊市，将普通牛市和熊市与少数异常值进行平均，会影响数据并产生误导信号。我强烈建议将“超级泡沫”——资产价格偏离均值2.5到3个标准差——视为特殊的集体极端现象，此时的投资者行为发生了阶段性变化。在经历了长期经济繁荣和股市长牛之后，当金融和经济系统看起来近乎完美（特别是在低通胀和高利润率的情况下），监管机构“态度友好”（特别是放松廉价加杠杆的监管）时，就会出现一个爆发点，就像夏天的傍晚，成千上万只飞蚁同时袭来。幸运的是，此类的事件有可供参考的例子，不管价值被如何定义，总可以看到自大、投机和不切实际的狂热现象激增。这种罕见的“超级泡沫”（美国现代只有三个超级泡沫）的结局不尽相同：关于保守型股票和投机型股票的讨论得分歧很多的；稍后讨论的熊市反弹；经济衰退的快速爆发（迄今为止，三次超级泡沫导致三次衰退，其中一次为轻微衰退——2000年美股科技股泡沫，另外2次为1929年美国股市泡沫和1972年美股蓝筹泡沫造成严重衰退）；最后，进一步发生意外金融和经济危机的可能性大大增加。我们正处在这样一个时期——一个真正的“超级泡沫”酝酿已久。最终，所有发达国家股市的超级泡沫，以及资产价格偏离均值2个标准差以上的泡沫，将难逃价值回归的命运。因此，价格越高，均值回归旷日弥久，跌得就越惨。超级泡沫的不同阶段我认为，超级泡沫的破灭需要经历多个阶段。首先，泡沫形成；其次，泡沫出现一定程度收缩，就像今年上半年一样，当时经济或政治环境中的一些问题让投资者意识到，完美终究不会永远持续下去，估值也倒退半步。然后是泡沫膨胀——我们刚刚看到的熊市反弹。最后一点，泡沫彻底破灭，经济基本面恶化，市场跌至历史低点。让我们回到我们今天所处的位置，超级泡沫中的熊市反弹比任何其他反弹都更容易、更快。大部分投资者觉得，这只股票在6个月前的卖出价格是100美元，所以现在以50美元、60美元或70美元的价格买入，肯定很便宜。在牛市中，创造一个新的高点是缓慢而紧张的，因为投资者意识到以前从未有人以这个价格买进过这只股票，股价变动通常是向上四步，向下三步，小心翼翼地上探从未企及的高点。而熊市反弹的情况恰恰相反，一只股票之前曾以100美元的价格卖出，并且之后也可能再次以100美元卖出。从历史经验来看，熊市反弹的速度和规模证明了这一点。从1929年11月的低点到1930年4月的高点，股市反弹46%——较当时高点为基准，反弹收复了的55%损失。1973年，在标普500指数首次下跌后的夏季反弹中较低点上涨了59%。2000年，纳斯达克指数在短短两个月内反弹了60%。2022年，在8月16日的盘中高点，标普指数从6月低点反弹58%。因此，到目前为止，现在所经历的与历史其他超级泡沫非常相似。经济开始分崩离析经济数据不可避免地滞后于经济周期的转折点。糟糕的是，在2000年和2007年股市泡沫破灭之际，企业利润和就业等数据随之恶化。而正是在开始转折到基本面溃败期间，通常会出现熊市反弹。为什么史诗级超级泡沫总是伴随着重大经济危机？也许是因为其发生在市场和经济力量经过长时间的积累之后——最终乐观情绪高涨。在顶峰时期，经济总是看起来近乎完美：充分就业、强劲的GDP、没有通货膨胀、创纪录的利润率。1929年、1972年、1999年和日本房市泡沫都是如此。典型的经济周期和基本面暂时接近完美，经济和金融数据只有一条路可走。我们的“P/E解读”（统计同期市盈率倍数的投入）模型也得出类似的结论。在2021下半年出现了前所未有的滞后以来，通胀一直是历史估值的主要驱动力，这“解释”了当下超级泡沫的第一个阶段。GMO的问题是，为什么2021的通胀飙升没有立即对市场市盈率产生更大的冲击，是股市中不熟悉通胀的新参与者？过度相信美联储支持市场的能力，因此盲目相信通胀是暂时的？该模型的下一阶段可能会受到利润率下降的推动。我们最佳估计是，模型中的市盈率水平将下降到15倍，而目前略低于20倍，实际市盈率在8月中旬从30倍上升到34倍可能是由于熊市反弹。（当然，如果该模型确实是由近期利润率下降驱动的，那么估值和市盈率都会下降。正如你所看到的，这意味着比我们建议的要低得多！）我此前的报告《最后一曲——大泡沫尾声的资产配置困境》和《开始狂野的喧嚣——美国资产泡沫盛宴》提出了一个简单的观点：美国三个近乎完美的市场中，投资者行为疯狂，偏离均值2.5个标准差随之而来的是50%的暴跌。这些报告除了预期会出现一些恶化外，对基本面只字不提。现在，我们已经经历了泡沫破裂的第一阶段和熊市的大幅反弹，发现基本面远比预期糟糕。现在，全世界都在关注通胀、利率和能源短缺等战时问题对经济增长的影响。此外，还有一些隐藏之下的“近忧”。与此同时，人口、资源和气候等长期问题只会愈发严重，现在甚至在短期内也开始恶化。近忧俄乌冲突加剧的粮食/能源/肥料危机在新兴经济体带来的影响（特别是非洲）比欧洲能源问题更为严重。俄罗斯和白俄罗斯占全球钾肥出口比重的40%，钾肥是一种关键肥料，推动小麦/玉米/大豆价格在今年早些时候创下纪录。粮食和能源价格上涨正给最脆弱国家造成严重的贸易不平衡和内乱，例如，斯里兰卡经济极为迅速地崩溃，能源冲击现在几乎肯定会使欧洲陷入衰退；虽然美国市场长期以来忽视国外问题和相互影响，但全球增长肯定会下降。房地产疲软反映在全球各地，例如，美国新屋开工数现在迅速下降到平均水平之下，鉴于抵押贷款利率上升，造成住房负担能力创下了历史新高，这或许是无可厚非的。在抵押贷款通常采用浮动利率的国家，情况看起来更糟。历史上，房地产一直是稳定经济最重要的资产类别。随着美国和全球各国政府撤回新冠疫情刺激措施，现在正经历史上最严重的财政紧缩。从历史上看，财政紧缩与利润率下降之间存在着密切的关系。同时，美国对股票回购征收的新消费税似乎预示着美国政府正开始改变对“劳动力和资本之间永恒之战”的立场（资本几十年来一直在赢得这场战争），这甚至可能会引发新的反垄断行动，这对消费者来说是个好消息，但对股票投资者来说是坏消息。远虑人口：发达国家劳动力开始短缺，并将在不确定的未来持续短缺，人口出生率下降加上快速老龄化，将拖累增长，推动通货膨胀。资源：许多金属，特别是脱碳所需的金属，都不可避免地陷入供应紧缩，缺乏足够的储量——目前仅为需求的5-20%——而且资本支出非常低。它根本无法计算，这清楚地表明，我们在任何勉强令人满意的条件下的生存将取决于我们在替换、回收和新技术方面的成功。第二个关键资源短缺是肥料。钾盐和磷酸盐目前正在开采的，也是所有生命所必需的：a）有限；b）分布极不均匀：摩洛哥控制着世界上75%的优质磷酸盐，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯开采了45%的钾盐。粮食：随着土壤退化和侵蚀，淡水短缺，害虫抗性日益增强，尽管非洲人口增长超过了其他地区放缓程度，但粮食生产率正在放缓，联合国全球粮食指数最近创下历史新高。气候变化失控，印度、欧洲和北美从未同时遭遇过严重干旱、危险的高温和火灾。这已经严重到拖累全球GDP的程度：莱茵河因干旱而关闭，影响了德国近20%的重型交通运输；法国核电站不得不减少产量，河水温度过高，无法用于冷却；加拿大、挪威、印度和其他地方的水电也因低水位而减少；印度、亚洲和非洲部分地区不断上升的气温突然高到足以给那些没有空调和户外工作的人带来健康问题，尤其是农民。恶劣农业气候的影响正在增加全球成本，并可能在不久的将来动摇造成更多的贫穷国家。这一切发生的速度远远超过10年前任何人的预期。所有这一切都是为了说明：多年来一直在我脑海中（希望也是你的）的这些负面问题——气候、生育率、粮食和其他资源——现在正成为影响通胀（上升）和增长（下降）的“近忧”。事实上，总体而言，这对人类的长期生存能力构成了潜在风险。准备迎接“史诗级”毁灭以史为鉴，如果超级泡沫由多重资产泡沫危机组成，泡沫破灭后的经济前景会糟糕得多。比如，股市+房市双重泡沫，1989年的日本泡沫或2006年的全球泡沫；再或者，通胀和利率冲击+股市泡沫，就像1973年在美国和其他地方发生的那样。当下的超级泡沫是前所未有的多重泡沫危机组合，三大资产类别——住房、股票和债券在去年年底都被严重高估。现在，我们看到了20世纪70年代初的通胀飙升和利率冲击。更糟糕的是，大宗商品和能源价格上涨（正如1972年和2007年般痛苦），而这些大宗商品冲击往往给长期经济增长笼罩上一层阴影。考虑到所有这些负面因素，消费者和企业信心指数跌至历史低点也就不足为奇了。在美国（和全球）经济的前沿科技领域，招聘放缓，裁员增加，首席执行官们正为经济衰退做准备。最近，我们看到熊市反弹，迄今为止，它的表现完全符合其三个先例，即超级泡沫破灭中期的熊市反弹。如果熊市已经结束，将迎来的超级泡沫完全破裂，这是不可避免的。每个周期都不尽相同，每个政府的反应都不可预测的，但这几场史诗般超级泡沫破灭似乎都在按照相同的轨迹行进，按照既定的剧本上演，在熊市反弹和全面溃败之间暂停。如果历史重演，将再次酿成悲剧，我们只能祈祷这次的带来的经济影响比预计的更小。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
