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lerons
2021-04-25
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Boeing 787: The Trend Is Still Up
lerons
2021-04-24
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2021-04-24
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Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?
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The delivery stop has affected Boeing’s cash collection as a big chunk of payments come in upon delivery but it also added to costs. During the duration of the grounding the actual impact on the cost side of the equation has been unclear, but it certainly has impacted Boeing’s ability to reduce its deferred production costs for the Boeing 787.</p>\n<p>In this analysis, we have a look at what the trend suggests will happen to Boeing's deferred production balance in the first quarter, which serves as a measure of the gap between what Boeing has recognized as profits via program accounting and what was actually realized.</p>\n<p>If you are not familiar with the program accounting method, I would highly recommend reading the explanation in this report after the paragraph discussing the risks and uncertainties.</p>\n<p><b>Risk and uncertainties</b></p>\n<p>I developed the estimation models for the Boeing 787 deferred production cost models years ago, often able to predict the deferred production cost balances within 0.5%. Since then, uncertainties have significantly increased and with the information available it's not always possible to provide counterbalance to these uncertainties in the estimate.</p>\n<p>Therefore, I want to discuss several risks or uncertainties that could drive significant difference between estimates and actual realized results and I believe that investors should be informed about those possible discrepancies.</p>\n<p>Currently there are four uncertainties that can adversely impact the deferred production balance:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Loss of gains in the production system due to lower production rates.</li>\n <li>Future adjustments to the production rate.</li>\n <li>Inventory built up due to inspections on the fuselage joins of the Boeing 787.</li>\n <li>The costs associated to the fuselage join inspections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>All of these elements infuse the deferred production balance trajectory with uncertainty and may contribute to a possible reach-forward loss recognition on the Boeing 787 program, though at this point there's extremely limited visibility on a potential forward loss as Boeing as provided extremely little detail on the costs of the grounding.</p>\n<p><b>Program accounting</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca654b70dbe1aa65061fddc3fd03e1f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p>\n<p>Boeing uses program accounting for its commercial aircraft programs instead of unit cost accounting. To understand what the deferred costs are, it's important to know how program accounting works. On programs where initial production costs are high, such as aircraft programs, it does make sense to amortize costs over a wider number of productions than just on the few initial productions. In other words, costs are spread out over an accounting block and are not only the costs that are spread out but also the revenues. For the Boeing 787 program, the accounting block currently stands at 1,500 units as Boeing reduced the accounting quantity in the previous quarter.</p>\n<p>Boeing says that the units in the accounting block are units of which it can credibly estimate costs and revenues, but should not be considered an indication for a breakeven point. Unless the company has set an average program margin of 0% - which it has not - a zero deferred balance indeed is no indication of a breakeven point and should not be considered as such. Currently, however, the program margins are close to breakeven.</p>\n<p>Analysts pay close attention to the deferred balance and so should investors. The reason is that it's likely Boeing needs to recognize a charge if it has not zeroed out the deferred costs by the 1,500th delivery (the number of units in the accounting quantity) or announce a (demand driven) block extension.</p>\n<p>Simultaneously, one should be aware of the fact that if Boeing zeroes out its deferred balance by the 1,500th delivery, it actually will have realized the profits that it estimated for the accounting block and the profits it has been reporting for the program valid after all. Even if Boeing does not zero out the balance by the last delivery and has to recognize a charge, it can still have booked a profit if the recognized charge is lower than the realized program profit.</p>\n<p>The assumption for costs and revenues means that Boeing assumes an average profit figure for each of the aircraft it currently delivers. If the actual profit figure is lower than the assumed profit, the deferred balance rises. If the profit is higher than the assumed profit, the deferred balance declines. So, the deferred balance tells you how profitable or unprofitable the program has been to date vs. the assumed program profits.</p>\n<p><b>Total deferred production balance</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beaeec389882399b4b95d31e07293aae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Figure 1: Accumulated total balance per quarter (Source: AeroAnalysis)</span></p>\n<p>In the fourth quarter of 2020, the balance for the Dreamliner program dropped to $16.8B, which is a $470 million quarter-over-quarter decrease. That was a decline that suggests that Boeing is able to burn off part of the deferred production balance while a certain aircraft might not be delivered yet. If that is indeed what's happening that provides Boeing with a stronger base to keep reducing the deferred production balance in the coming quarters while production could be outpacing deliveries.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd00a3376256b96f43a9fec908dde814\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Figure 2: Total balance improvement per unit per quarter (Source: AeroAnalysis)</span></p>\n<p>The cost-cutting ramp up has been more or less linear over the past 15-plus quarters, but that has started to flatten. In Q1 2020, there was a huge jump in the per unit decrease that was not caused by some extraordinary efficiency gain in the system but was caused by low deliveries in combination with the decrease in the accounting quantity which allowed \"more space\" on previous deliveries to burn off the balance.</p>\n<p>In Q4 2020, Boeing reduced the deferred production balance by $470 million. Based on the data from the previous 20-plus quarters, I'm hoping the decrease will be at least in the $400 million to $440 million range more or less in line with the previous quarter. Anything above that would be welcome, anything below that would most definitely be disappointing.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The trend in per unit decreases over past quarters would suggest that Boeing could reduce its deferred balance on the Boeing 787 program by as much as $440 million, though uncertainty about the program's profit generation have never been higher, and as I pointed out in aprevious report, Boeing has been inching closer and closer to a reach-forward loss. If that indeed is something that's in the play for Q1 2021 results then instead of posting deferred production reductions Boeing will be recognizing a charge in the amount of the costs exceeding the revenues, though production could still be profitable.</p>\n<p>Boeing's task of zeroing the deferred production balance which normally should have happened around 2023 is flying into trouble, as production rates have decreased. So, what Boeing announces with regard to the burn off is extremely important for the financial trajectory of the Boeing 787, and while I have generally been more positive than many analysts on the Boeing 787 deferred production balance burn off and also have been able to make more accurate estimates, at this point I can only admit that things are very challenging for the Dreamliner program.</p>\n<p>For now, Boeing could still be reducing the deferred production balance, but if there will be significant additional cost growth on the program, a reach-forward loss cannot be avoided. On the positive side, if Boeing sees sufficient demand to increase production again, that should have some positive impact on the costs of production for the Dreamliner. So, what I'm seeing that the Dreamliner is still bringing in cash and profits, but it might not be high enough to completely zero the deferred production balance. In the end, what matters to me is that on unit cost and cash cost the Boeing 787 is still performing well, meaning that when airlines can take delivery of the Dreamliner again it should positively impact Boeing’s cash flow, it’s just the accounting background against which the Boeing 787 has to perform is somewhat grim with a challenging recovery profile for international traffic layered on top of that.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing 787: The Trend Is Still Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing 787: The Trend Is Still Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 21:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420399-boeing-787-trend-is-still-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBoeing has recommenced deliveries of the Dreamliner.\nThe aircraft has been a cash cow for Boeing after cost overruns in the billions of dollars.\nDespite lower production rates, cash margins ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420399-boeing-787-trend-is-still-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420399-boeing-787-trend-is-still-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1101553872","content_text":"Summary\n\nBoeing has recommenced deliveries of the Dreamliner.\nThe aircraft has been a cash cow for Boeing after cost overruns in the billions of dollars.\nDespite lower production rates, cash margins should still be high on the Dreamliner.\n\nPhoto by Alvin Man/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn March, Boeing (BA) finally recommenced deliveries of the Boeing 787 after a delivery stop that was put in place in October 2020. The delivery stop has affected Boeing’s cash collection as a big chunk of payments come in upon delivery but it also added to costs. During the duration of the grounding the actual impact on the cost side of the equation has been unclear, but it certainly has impacted Boeing’s ability to reduce its deferred production costs for the Boeing 787.\nIn this analysis, we have a look at what the trend suggests will happen to Boeing's deferred production balance in the first quarter, which serves as a measure of the gap between what Boeing has recognized as profits via program accounting and what was actually realized.\nIf you are not familiar with the program accounting method, I would highly recommend reading the explanation in this report after the paragraph discussing the risks and uncertainties.\nRisk and uncertainties\nI developed the estimation models for the Boeing 787 deferred production cost models years ago, often able to predict the deferred production cost balances within 0.5%. Since then, uncertainties have significantly increased and with the information available it's not always possible to provide counterbalance to these uncertainties in the estimate.\nTherefore, I want to discuss several risks or uncertainties that could drive significant difference between estimates and actual realized results and I believe that investors should be informed about those possible discrepancies.\nCurrently there are four uncertainties that can adversely impact the deferred production balance:\n\nLoss of gains in the production system due to lower production rates.\nFuture adjustments to the production rate.\nInventory built up due to inspections on the fuselage joins of the Boeing 787.\nThe costs associated to the fuselage join inspections.\n\nAll of these elements infuse the deferred production balance trajectory with uncertainty and may contribute to a possible reach-forward loss recognition on the Boeing 787 program, though at this point there's extremely limited visibility on a potential forward loss as Boeing as provided extremely little detail on the costs of the grounding.\nProgram accounting\nSource: Forbes\nBoeing uses program accounting for its commercial aircraft programs instead of unit cost accounting. To understand what the deferred costs are, it's important to know how program accounting works. On programs where initial production costs are high, such as aircraft programs, it does make sense to amortize costs over a wider number of productions than just on the few initial productions. In other words, costs are spread out over an accounting block and are not only the costs that are spread out but also the revenues. For the Boeing 787 program, the accounting block currently stands at 1,500 units as Boeing reduced the accounting quantity in the previous quarter.\nBoeing says that the units in the accounting block are units of which it can credibly estimate costs and revenues, but should not be considered an indication for a breakeven point. Unless the company has set an average program margin of 0% - which it has not - a zero deferred balance indeed is no indication of a breakeven point and should not be considered as such. Currently, however, the program margins are close to breakeven.\nAnalysts pay close attention to the deferred balance and so should investors. The reason is that it's likely Boeing needs to recognize a charge if it has not zeroed out the deferred costs by the 1,500th delivery (the number of units in the accounting quantity) or announce a (demand driven) block extension.\nSimultaneously, one should be aware of the fact that if Boeing zeroes out its deferred balance by the 1,500th delivery, it actually will have realized the profits that it estimated for the accounting block and the profits it has been reporting for the program valid after all. Even if Boeing does not zero out the balance by the last delivery and has to recognize a charge, it can still have booked a profit if the recognized charge is lower than the realized program profit.\nThe assumption for costs and revenues means that Boeing assumes an average profit figure for each of the aircraft it currently delivers. If the actual profit figure is lower than the assumed profit, the deferred balance rises. If the profit is higher than the assumed profit, the deferred balance declines. So, the deferred balance tells you how profitable or unprofitable the program has been to date vs. the assumed program profits.\nTotal deferred production balance\nFigure 1: Accumulated total balance per quarter (Source: AeroAnalysis)\nIn the fourth quarter of 2020, the balance for the Dreamliner program dropped to $16.8B, which is a $470 million quarter-over-quarter decrease. That was a decline that suggests that Boeing is able to burn off part of the deferred production balance while a certain aircraft might not be delivered yet. If that is indeed what's happening that provides Boeing with a stronger base to keep reducing the deferred production balance in the coming quarters while production could be outpacing deliveries.\nFigure 2: Total balance improvement per unit per quarter (Source: AeroAnalysis)\nThe cost-cutting ramp up has been more or less linear over the past 15-plus quarters, but that has started to flatten. In Q1 2020, there was a huge jump in the per unit decrease that was not caused by some extraordinary efficiency gain in the system but was caused by low deliveries in combination with the decrease in the accounting quantity which allowed \"more space\" on previous deliveries to burn off the balance.\nIn Q4 2020, Boeing reduced the deferred production balance by $470 million. Based on the data from the previous 20-plus quarters, I'm hoping the decrease will be at least in the $400 million to $440 million range more or less in line with the previous quarter. Anything above that would be welcome, anything below that would most definitely be disappointing.\nConclusion\nThe trend in per unit decreases over past quarters would suggest that Boeing could reduce its deferred balance on the Boeing 787 program by as much as $440 million, though uncertainty about the program's profit generation have never been higher, and as I pointed out in aprevious report, Boeing has been inching closer and closer to a reach-forward loss. If that indeed is something that's in the play for Q1 2021 results then instead of posting deferred production reductions Boeing will be recognizing a charge in the amount of the costs exceeding the revenues, though production could still be profitable.\nBoeing's task of zeroing the deferred production balance which normally should have happened around 2023 is flying into trouble, as production rates have decreased. So, what Boeing announces with regard to the burn off is extremely important for the financial trajectory of the Boeing 787, and while I have generally been more positive than many analysts on the Boeing 787 deferred production balance burn off and also have been able to make more accurate estimates, at this point I can only admit that things are very challenging for the Dreamliner program.\nFor now, Boeing could still be reducing the deferred production balance, but if there will be significant additional cost growth on the program, a reach-forward loss cannot be avoided. On the positive side, if Boeing sees sufficient demand to increase production again, that should have some positive impact on the costs of production for the Dreamliner. So, what I'm seeing that the Dreamliner is still bringing in cash and profits, but it might not be high enough to completely zero the deferred production balance. In the end, what matters to me is that on unit cost and cash cost the Boeing 787 is still performing well, meaning that when airlines can take delivery of the Dreamliner again it should positively impact Boeing’s cash flow, it’s just the accounting background against which the Boeing 787 has to perform is somewhat grim with a challenging recovery profile for international traffic layered on top of that.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375067171,"gmtCreate":1619261218393,"gmtModify":1704721937133,"author":{"id":"3582334628296281","authorId":"3582334628296281","authorIdStr":"3582334628296281","name":"lerons","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582334628296281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375067171","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375067069,"gmtCreate":1619261186551,"gmtModify":1704721936488,"author":{"id":"3582334628296281","authorId":"3582334628296281","authorIdStr":"3582334628296281","name":"lerons","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582334628296281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375067069","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166519043","pubTimestamp":1619192700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166519043?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166519043","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.</li>\n <li>More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.</li>\n <li>It's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.</li>\n <li>However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.</li>\n <li>Tesla could consider another stock split to get \"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59edf6c2b70d6c984dc825b7567439bc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>TSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth</b></p>\n<p>In a recent article titled <i>Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025</i>, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.</p>\n<p>By 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.</p>\n<p>Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more geopolitical risks to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.</p>\n<p>Then again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac352f9c2ac9bac0412ed076c27c75a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>If Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7650450aa6230d6585a502b571ee3652\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>With EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd810d4171606b50d186b8d9bf10bf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\"></p>\n<p>Tesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?</p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.</p>\n<p>On August 11, 2020, Tesla announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b22a860341fe3bf36996d737680ddb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"></p>\n<p><b>How did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?</b></p>\n<p>Interestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.</p>\n<p>However, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise announced pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.</p>\n<p>TSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a mandatory reduction exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a34d7256fb764f0652d6223057202\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>When will Tesla stock split again?</b></p>\n<p>Although Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.</p>\n<p>If the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.</p>\n<p>The leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46bd0bed00b03ba1d738fd84c9dfb0dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>Considering that Apple announced a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.</p>\n<p>Jim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44957db620e86907bb72e9691bc726e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>Should you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?</b></p>\n<p>Video-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbb0c9bd178401bc6cc863a0934af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>Although Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, there is existing literature that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.</p>\n<p>Of course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.</p>\n<p>However, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 23:45 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1166519043","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.\nIt's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.\nHowever, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.\nTesla could consider another stock split to get \"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.\n\nPhoto by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nTSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth\nIn a recent article titled Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.\nBy 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.\nEven if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more geopolitical risks to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.\nThen again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nIf Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWith EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.\n\nTesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?\nIn other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.\nOn August 11, 2020, Tesla announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.\n\nHow did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?\nInterestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.\nHowever, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise announced pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.\nTSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a mandatory reduction exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.\nTo make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nWhen will Tesla stock split again?\nAlthough Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.\nIf the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.\nNevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.\nThe leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.\n\nConsidering that Apple announced a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.\nJim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nShould you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?\nVideo-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nAlthough Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.\nFurthermore, there is existing literature that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.\nOf course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.\nHowever, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":375067171,"gmtCreate":1619261218393,"gmtModify":1704721937133,"author":{"id":"3582334628296281","authorId":"3582334628296281","authorIdStr":"3582334628296281","name":"lerons","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582334628296281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375067171","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375320753,"gmtCreate":1619310423872,"gmtModify":1704722204840,"author":{"id":"3582334628296281","authorId":"3582334628296281","authorIdStr":"3582334628296281","name":"lerons","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582334628296281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share pls","listText":"Like and share pls","text":"Like and share pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375320753","repostId":"1101553872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375067069,"gmtCreate":1619261186551,"gmtModify":1704721936488,"author":{"id":"3582334628296281","authorId":"3582334628296281","authorIdStr":"3582334628296281","name":"lerons","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582334628296281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375067069","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
