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DaphneTan

DaphneTan

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2022-04-03

$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it continues to rise!

2022-03-14

$Smart Share Global(EM)$This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.

2022-03-14

$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it will continue to rise!

2022-03-14

Great article!

Turquoise Hill Shares Surged More Than 30% in Premarket Trading

2022-02-17

Great article!

Relative Analysis for Micron V.S. Peers, Reveals Why the Stock May Be Mispriced

2022-02-12

Thanks for this!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-10

Thanks for this!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-05

Thanks for the insights

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?

2022-02-04

Thanks for this!

EV Stocks Continued to Crash in Premarket Trading, with Rivian and Li Falling Over 3%

2022-01-31

Thanks for this!

@Value_investing:Boeing Q4 results: Disappointing but bring us hope

2022-01-31

Thanks for this!

Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading

2022-01-31

$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$Looking good today?

2022-01-31

$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$Hope it will rise further!

2022-01-31

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$Will it rise more?

2022-01-27

$Itron(ITRI)$Hope this will rise soon!

2022-01-27

Thanks for this!

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it continues to rise!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it continues to rise!","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it continues to rise!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/236dc34f90de18a3cfc9463681b75a0f","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018047574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032927329,"gmtCreate":1647265547469,"gmtModify":1676534209521,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$Smart Share Global(EM)$</a>This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$Smart Share Global(EM)$</a>This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","text":"$Smart Share Global(EM)$This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032927329","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032922597,"gmtCreate":1647265197452,"gmtModify":1676534209451,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it will continue to rise!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it will continue to rise!","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it will continue to rise!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/896ffb5403fc584fdbfbb29376f1837f","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032922597","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032922868,"gmtCreate":1647265152462,"gmtModify":1676534209451,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article!","listText":"Great article!","text":"Great article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032922868","repostId":"1126067174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126067174","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647258091,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126067174?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Turquoise Hill Shares Surged More Than 30% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126067174","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Turquoise Hill shares surged more than 30% in premarket trading.Rio Tinto Group is offering to pay $","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Turquoise Hill shares surged more than 30% in premarket trading.</p><p>Rio Tinto Group is offering to pay $2.7 billion to buy out minorities in Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd., which holds a majority stake in the giant Mongolian copper project Oyu Tolgoi.</p><p>Rio has offered C$34 ($26.60) a share in cash for about 49% of Turquoise Hill, the mining company said in a statement on Monday.</p><p>Rio will start work on a long-delayed $6.9 billion underground expansion of its giant Oyu Tolgoi copper operation, after sealing a deal in January that waives debt owed by the Mongolian government to the troubled project.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Turquoise Hill Shares Surged More Than 30% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTurquoise Hill Shares Surged More Than 30% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-14 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Turquoise Hill shares surged more than 30% in premarket trading.</p><p>Rio Tinto Group is offering to pay $2.7 billion to buy out minorities in Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd., which holds a majority stake in the giant Mongolian copper project Oyu Tolgoi.</p><p>Rio has offered C$34 ($26.60) a share in cash for about 49% of Turquoise Hill, the mining company said in a statement on Monday.</p><p>Rio will start work on a long-delayed $6.9 billion underground expansion of its giant Oyu Tolgoi copper operation, after sealing a deal in January that waives debt owed by the Mongolian government to the troubled project.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIO":"力拓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126067174","content_text":"Turquoise Hill shares surged more than 30% in premarket trading.Rio Tinto Group is offering to pay $2.7 billion to buy out minorities in Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd., which holds a majority stake in the giant Mongolian copper project Oyu Tolgoi.Rio has offered C$34 ($26.60) a share in cash for about 49% of Turquoise Hill, the mining company said in a statement on Monday.Rio will start work on a long-delayed $6.9 billion underground expansion of its giant Oyu Tolgoi copper operation, after sealing a deal in January that waives debt owed by the Mongolian government to the troubled project.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094805486,"gmtCreate":1645103039422,"gmtModify":1676533997123,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article!","listText":"Great article!","text":"Great article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094805486","repostId":"2211253659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2211253659","pubTimestamp":1645065979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2211253659?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Relative Analysis for Micron V.S. Peers, Reveals Why the Stock May Be Mispriced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2211253659","media":"Simply Wall St.","summary":"Micron Technology Inc.,  seems unusually attractive when compared to a select set of peers. Today, w","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology Inc., </a> seems unusually attractive when compared to a select set of peers. Today, we will explore how we can do competitor analysis on a fundamental level and see why Micron seems to stand out.</p><p>Before we start, we should be mindful that Micron is currently trading close to all-time highs, at $96. While many investors see the stock as attractive, we should be cautious when engaging after a &#34;good&#34; period for the stock. Even if we do feel some fear of missing out, a stock frequently drops and provides opportunities to buy at a more reasonable price, and if it does shoot up - there will always be other stocks.</p><h3>Introduction</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology Inc.</a>, is a semiconductor company, headquartered in the USA. The company mainly produces DRAM (accounting for 73% of sales in the last quarter), and NAND (accounting for 24% of sales in the last quarter) semiconductors.</p><p>A quick reminder: <b>DRAM</b>, stands for Dynamic Random Access Memory and is used in many processor systems to provide working <b>memory</b>. NAND is a type of memory, used in components such as <b>memory cards, USB flash drives, SSD drives, smartphones etc</b>.</p><p>For Micron, the main end use cases of their products are Data Centers, PC &amp; Graphics, Mobile &amp; Intelligent Edge. According to Micron (p. 8), the industry is expected to <b>increase demand for DRAM</b> in the mid to high teens on a long term compound annual growth basis, and a long term CAGR of approximately 30% for NAND demand growth. This means that investors have a bit more margin of safety knowing that a stock is tied to a growing industry.</p><p>As this article is not going to focus on the fundamentals of Micron, you can get familiar with the performance of the company by visiting our latest analysis for Micron Technology.</p><p><i>Now, let&#39;s compare the stock to peers!</i></p><h3>Competitor Analysis</h3><p>While we conduct the analysis based on fundamentals and data, we must note that the process is very subjective and <b>different analysts can come up with very different conclusions</b>.</p><p>There are 2 main ways where we introduce subjectivity in the process: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is when selecting which and how many peers to analyze, and the other is choosing the metrics by which we make our decisions.</p><p>For the first part, we will consider the standard set of peers offered by Simply Wall St.</p><p>If we want, can find more competitors in the semiconductor industry and add them to our analysis.</p><p>For Micron, we will consider the 4 peers from the Simply Wall St Data:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ed4a3df8c6b6d585085eb359a6efae\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>NasdaqGS:MU Select Competitors, 16th 2022</p><p>The peers above are mostly popular large cap stocks, which are tied to the same industry as Micron and compete for market share.</p><p>The second step is to compare these companies on a fundamental and pricing basis. What <b>we are looking for</b> is <b>a mismatch between the quality of fundamentals and the price</b> at which a company trades.</p><p>In the table below, we will see why Micron is an interesting candidate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3b47644d87437429beed31e8fd86b1\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>NasdaqGS:MU Micron Competitor KPIs, 16th 2022</p><p><i>Right from the start, we notice a few things.</i></p><p>Micron has more revenue than competitors. It turns out that Micron is leading the revenue race - at least in the last 12 months, revenues may normalize after this.</p><p>All the companies are also high-growth companies, with rates from 15% to 68% in the last 12 months.</p><p>The peer median growth across 3 years is 14.3%, with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a><b> and </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> <b>experiencing the highest CAGR of 6.4% and 7.3% respectively</b> in the same period - while <b>Micron had a CAGR of 1.55%</b>. Practically, this means that over the years, <b>NVIDIA and AMD grew faster than the competition</b> and were/are very attractive to investors who hope that the growth will continue.</p><p>Finally, we can see that <b>NVIDIA and Broadcom are the most profitable of the group</b>, <b>as per their EBIT margins</b>. Micron is closely behind with a 28.8% EBIT margin.</p><p><i>EBIT is a measure of profitability before taxes and interest. In a relative analysis, we sometimes choose to scale back up the income statement in order to find more comparable metrics. In any case, the final and truly relevant metric for the value of a stock are the free cash flows attributable to (all or just equity) investors.</i></p><p>Now we can use these metrics in order to compare the companies between each other on a price basis.</p><p><b>On an EV to Sales and EV to EBIT basis, Micron investors are paying the lowest price per metric</b>. <i>What does this mean?</i></p><p>It means that investors are paying US$11.7 for every USD$1 of EBIT, or US$3.4 for every 1 US$ dollar of revenue for Micron. While on the other extreme, we have NVIDIA, with US$71.7 and US$25.4 per dollar of EBIT and revenue respectively.</p><p>When thinking of investment decisions, we also want to factor-in other drivers such as growth, risk and profitability. In our case, EBIT margins (profitability), don&#39;t differ too much within peers, and bringing in risk is a bit on the theoretical side, so we will factor-in growth in the mix and see the results in the chart below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef893948d0f9469c294ddcbd0035cc17\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>NasdaqGS:MU Pricing vs Value Drivers for Micron &amp; Competitors, 16th 2022</p><p>The scattershot, brings in past revenue growth, and we can see that <b>even though Micron had lower growth than AMD and NVIDIA, it is still cheaper than both competitors</b>, while the other 2 competitors are not as attractive, since they do not have as much growth as AMD and NVIDIA, while being also highly priced.</p><p><i>Now let&#39;s note a few technical details and caveats:</i></p><ul><li><i>The analysis does not account for future growth, while the value of a stock lies entirely in the future cash flows. This is why we have disclaimers stating that past performance doesn&#39;t equal future gains - because it&#39;s true.</i></li><li><i>The analysis does not account for returns on capital, new R&amp;D developments and infrastructure projects/CapEx, and risk. All of these factors matter, and that is why investors should really do good research before buying a stock.</i></li><li><i>I use EV instead of Market Cap/Price, because EBIT and Sales come before interest payments, and it allows me to account for companies that are financing income with large levels of debt.</i></li><li><i>In a relative analysis we assume that the stock will converge upwards or to the level of peers, but it can easily be the case that peers begin declining.</i></li></ul><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Micron seems to be <b>trading at a cheaper price relative to our select set of competitors</b>.</p><p>The company is positioned in a growing industry and their products are in high demand.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Relative Analysis for Micron V.S. Peers, Reveals Why the Stock May Be Mispriced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRelative Analysis for Micron V.S. Peers, Reveals Why the Stock May Be Mispriced\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-17 10:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relative-analysis-micron-nasdaq-mu-031529180.html><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron Technology Inc.,  seems unusually attractive when compared to a select set of peers. Today, we will explore how we can do competitor analysis on a fundamental level and see why Micron seems to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relative-analysis-micron-nasdaq-mu-031529180.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","MU":"美光科技","AMD":"美国超微公司","ADI":"亚德诺","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relative-analysis-micron-nasdaq-mu-031529180.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2211253659","content_text":"Micron Technology Inc.,  seems unusually attractive when compared to a select set of peers. Today, we will explore how we can do competitor analysis on a fundamental level and see why Micron seems to stand out.Before we start, we should be mindful that Micron is currently trading close to all-time highs, at $96. While many investors see the stock as attractive, we should be cautious when engaging after a \"good\" period for the stock. Even if we do feel some fear of missing out, a stock frequently drops and provides opportunities to buy at a more reasonable price, and if it does shoot up - there will always be other stocks.IntroductionMicron Technology Inc., is a semiconductor company, headquartered in the USA. The company mainly produces DRAM (accounting for 73% of sales in the last quarter), and NAND (accounting for 24% of sales in the last quarter) semiconductors.A quick reminder: DRAM, stands for Dynamic Random Access Memory and is used in many processor systems to provide working memory. NAND is a type of memory, used in components such as memory cards, USB flash drives, SSD drives, smartphones etc.For Micron, the main end use cases of their products are Data Centers, PC & Graphics, Mobile & Intelligent Edge. According to Micron (p. 8), the industry is expected to increase demand for DRAM in the mid to high teens on a long term compound annual growth basis, and a long term CAGR of approximately 30% for NAND demand growth. This means that investors have a bit more margin of safety knowing that a stock is tied to a growing industry.As this article is not going to focus on the fundamentals of Micron, you can get familiar with the performance of the company by visiting our latest analysis for Micron Technology.Now, let's compare the stock to peers!Competitor AnalysisWhile we conduct the analysis based on fundamentals and data, we must note that the process is very subjective and different analysts can come up with very different conclusions.There are 2 main ways where we introduce subjectivity in the process: one is when selecting which and how many peers to analyze, and the other is choosing the metrics by which we make our decisions.For the first part, we will consider the standard set of peers offered by Simply Wall St.If we want, can find more competitors in the semiconductor industry and add them to our analysis.For Micron, we will consider the 4 peers from the Simply Wall St Data:NasdaqGS:MU Select Competitors, 16th 2022The peers above are mostly popular large cap stocks, which are tied to the same industry as Micron and compete for market share.The second step is to compare these companies on a fundamental and pricing basis. What we are looking for is a mismatch between the quality of fundamentals and the price at which a company trades.In the table below, we will see why Micron is an interesting candidate:NasdaqGS:MU Micron Competitor KPIs, 16th 2022Right from the start, we notice a few things.Micron has more revenue than competitors. It turns out that Micron is leading the revenue race - at least in the last 12 months, revenues may normalize after this.All the companies are also high-growth companies, with rates from 15% to 68% in the last 12 months.The peer median growth across 3 years is 14.3%, with NVIDIA and AMD experiencing the highest CAGR of 6.4% and 7.3% respectively in the same period - while Micron had a CAGR of 1.55%. Practically, this means that over the years, NVIDIA and AMD grew faster than the competition and were/are very attractive to investors who hope that the growth will continue.Finally, we can see that NVIDIA and Broadcom are the most profitable of the group, as per their EBIT margins. Micron is closely behind with a 28.8% EBIT margin.EBIT is a measure of profitability before taxes and interest. In a relative analysis, we sometimes choose to scale back up the income statement in order to find more comparable metrics. In any case, the final and truly relevant metric for the value of a stock are the free cash flows attributable to (all or just equity) investors.Now we can use these metrics in order to compare the companies between each other on a price basis.On an EV to Sales and EV to EBIT basis, Micron investors are paying the lowest price per metric. What does this mean?It means that investors are paying US$11.7 for every USD$1 of EBIT, or US$3.4 for every 1 US$ dollar of revenue for Micron. While on the other extreme, we have NVIDIA, with US$71.7 and US$25.4 per dollar of EBIT and revenue respectively.When thinking of investment decisions, we also want to factor-in other drivers such as growth, risk and profitability. In our case, EBIT margins (profitability), don't differ too much within peers, and bringing in risk is a bit on the theoretical side, so we will factor-in growth in the mix and see the results in the chart below:NasdaqGS:MU Pricing vs Value Drivers for Micron & Competitors, 16th 2022The scattershot, brings in past revenue growth, and we can see that even though Micron had lower growth than AMD and NVIDIA, it is still cheaper than both competitors, while the other 2 competitors are not as attractive, since they do not have as much growth as AMD and NVIDIA, while being also highly priced.Now let's note a few technical details and caveats:The analysis does not account for future growth, while the value of a stock lies entirely in the future cash flows. This is why we have disclaimers stating that past performance doesn't equal future gains - because it's true.The analysis does not account for returns on capital, new R&D developments and infrastructure projects/CapEx, and risk. All of these factors matter, and that is why investors should really do good research before buying a stock.I use EV instead of Market Cap/Price, because EBIT and Sales come before interest payments, and it allows me to account for companies that are financing income with large levels of debt.In a relative analysis we assume that the stock will converge upwards or to the level of peers, but it can easily be the case that peers begin declining.ConclusionMicron seems to be trading at a cheaper price relative to our select set of competitors.The company is positioned in a growing industry and their products are in high demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092569529,"gmtCreate":1644670359295,"gmtModify":1676533952006,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092569529","repostId":"1106670391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092911844,"gmtCreate":1644506944424,"gmtModify":1676533934988,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092911844","repostId":"2210593296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098152879,"gmtCreate":1644057291611,"gmtModify":1676533886799,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the insights","listText":"Thanks for the insights","text":"Thanks for the insights","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098152879","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091717379,"gmtCreate":1643941135213,"gmtModify":1676533874462,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091717379","repostId":"1191852202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191852202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643880521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191852202?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 17:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks Continued to Crash in Premarket Trading, with Rivian and Li Falling Over 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191852202","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks continued to crash in premarket trading, with Rivian and Li falling over 3%.Cathie Wood-le","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks continued to crash in premarket trading, with Rivian and Li falling over 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6090e8bac949679242185274d2533eaf\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led <b>Ark Investment Management</b> on Wednesday further raised its electric vehicle exposure as it bought shares in <b>Tesla Inc</b> and the U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle maker <b>Xpeng Inc</b> on the dip.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks Continued to Crash in Premarket Trading, with Rivian and Li Falling Over 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks Continued to Crash in Premarket Trading, with Rivian and Li Falling Over 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-03 17:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks continued to crash in premarket trading, with Rivian and Li falling over 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6090e8bac949679242185274d2533eaf\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led <b>Ark Investment Management</b> on Wednesday further raised its electric vehicle exposure as it bought shares in <b>Tesla Inc</b> and the U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle maker <b>Xpeng Inc</b> on the dip.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191852202","content_text":"EV stocks continued to crash in premarket trading, with Rivian and Li falling over 3%.Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Wednesday further raised its electric vehicle exposure as it bought shares in Tesla Inc and the U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng Inc on the dip.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093266888,"gmtCreate":1643641161745,"gmtModify":1676533839143,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for this!&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093266888","repostId":"9099083114","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9099083114,"gmtCreate":1643278581423,"gmtModify":1676533794918,"author":{"id":"3527667626267411","authorId":"3527667626267411","name":"Value_investing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667626267411","authorIdStr":"3527667626267411"},"themes":[],"title":"Boeing Q4 results: Disappointing but bring us hope","htmlText":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","listText":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","text":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4cf1781c585aaa5086d3840f846609","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910ca71696c8e3e3deec504f57a3f34b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07b0acfd0380fed58437150c573073a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099083114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093268064,"gmtCreate":1643640970022,"gmtModify":1676533839110,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093268064","repostId":"1116027625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116027625","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643630385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116027625?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116027625","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.Netflix and Spotify were each upgraded to buy ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645800214b27b237c8fcc2155cf86731\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Netflix and Spotify were each upgraded to buy from neutral by Citi as part of a look at subscriber-based stocks after significant pressure. Prevailing equity values, argue the analysts, don&#39;t assume material subscription growth or improving economics beyond 2023. &#34;While Netflix and Spotify may see more modest sub growth, we see other top-line vectors. For Netflix, we believe the firm has ample pricing power. For Spotify, we believe the firm can improve ad-supported monetization,&#34; they said. The analysts lowered target prices on Netflix, Spotify, Roku, DraftKings and Robinhood, with Netflix&#39;s target falling to $450 from $595.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 19:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645800214b27b237c8fcc2155cf86731\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Netflix and Spotify were each upgraded to buy from neutral by Citi as part of a look at subscriber-based stocks after significant pressure. Prevailing equity values, argue the analysts, don&#39;t assume material subscription growth or improving economics beyond 2023. &#34;While Netflix and Spotify may see more modest sub growth, we see other top-line vectors. For Netflix, we believe the firm has ample pricing power. For Spotify, we believe the firm can improve ad-supported monetization,&#34; they said. The analysts lowered target prices on Netflix, Spotify, Roku, DraftKings and Robinhood, with Netflix&#39;s target falling to $450 from $595.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116027625","content_text":"Netflix shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.Netflix and Spotify were each upgraded to buy from neutral by Citi as part of a look at subscriber-based stocks after significant pressure. Prevailing equity values, argue the analysts, don't assume material subscription growth or improving economics beyond 2023. \"While Netflix and Spotify may see more modest sub growth, we see other top-line vectors. For Netflix, we believe the firm has ample pricing power. For Spotify, we believe the firm can improve ad-supported monetization,\" they said. The analysts lowered target prices on Netflix, Spotify, Roku, DraftKings and Robinhood, with Netflix's target falling to $450 from $595.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093269819,"gmtCreate":1643640620521,"gmtModify":1676533839055,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COMP\">$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$</a>Looking good today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COMP\">$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$</a>Looking good today?","text":"$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$Looking good today?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/c298a59501f85a38772af09869a88b63","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093269819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093260081,"gmtCreate":1643640406187,"gmtModify":1676533839019,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LTCH\">$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$</a>Hope it will rise further!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LTCH\">$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$</a>Hope it will rise further!","text":"$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$Hope it will rise further!","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/604bfcc1653cb5342d3b33b43122b66b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093260081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093287474,"gmtCreate":1643640387795,"gmtModify":1676533839034,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>Will it rise more?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>Will it rise more?","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$Will it rise more?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/d36add1bd3f03090874645869dfff803","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093287474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099985737,"gmtCreate":1643290711130,"gmtModify":1676533797613,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ITRI\">$Itron(ITRI)$</a>Hope this will rise soon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ITRI\">$Itron(ITRI)$</a>Hope this will rise soon!","text":"$Itron(ITRI)$Hope this will rise soon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099985737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099982379,"gmtCreate":1643290624620,"gmtModify":1676533797584,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099982379","repostId":"1105597647","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105597647","pubTimestamp":1643287110,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105597647?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-27 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105597647","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Keybanc boosted Oshkosh Corporation price target from $125 to $130. Oshkosh shares rose 0.6% to $116","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Keybanc boosted <b>Oshkosh Corporation</b> price target from $125 to $130. Oshkosh shares rose 0.6% to $116.70 in pre-market trading.</li><li>SVB Leerink raised <b>Anthem, Inc.</b> price target from $430 to $465. Anthem shares fell 2.5% to close at $428.44 on Wednesday.</li><li>Piper Sandler lifted <b>Lam Research Corporation</b> price target from $597 to $627. Lam Research shares fell 4.9% to $567.23 in pre-market trading.</li><li>HSBC boosted the price target for <b>Albemarle Corporation</b> from $250 to $280. Albemarle shares rose 1.6% to $208.88 in pre-market trading.</li><li>Rosenblatt raised the price target on <b>Seagate Technology Holdings plc</b> from $115 to $120. Seagate shares rose 8% to $104.04 in pre-market trading.</li></ul><ul><li>Goldman Sachs boosted <b>Corning Incorporated</b> price target from $38 to $50. Corning shares rose 1.8% to $39.93 in pre-market trading.</li><li>Cowen &amp; Co. cut the price target on <b>Domino&#39;s Pizza, Inc.</b> from $550 to $480. Domino&#39;s Pizza shares slipped 0.1% to $423.50 in pre-market trading.</li><li>Macquarie cut the price target for <b>Sea Limited</b> from $435 to $285. Sea shares rose 0.4% to $136.10 in pre-market trading.</li><li>JP Morgan boosted <b>Tesla, Inc.</b> price target from $295 to $325. Tesla shares fell 1% to $928.40 in pre-market trading.</li><li>Wells Fargo lowered the price target on <b>The Boeing Company</b> from $272 to $250. Boeing shares rose 0.2% to $194.68 in pre-market trading.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-27 20:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/22/01/25254997/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Keybanc boosted Oshkosh Corporation price target from $125 to $130. Oshkosh shares rose 0.6% to $116.70 in pre-market trading.SVB Leerink raised Anthem, Inc. price target from $430 to $465. Anthem ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/22/01/25254997/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","GLW":"康宁","BA":"波音","TSLA":"特斯拉","LRCX":"拉姆研究","OSK":"Oshkosh","STX":"希捷科技","ALB":"美国雅保","DPZ":"达美乐比萨"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/22/01/25254997/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105597647","content_text":"Keybanc boosted Oshkosh Corporation price target from $125 to $130. Oshkosh shares rose 0.6% to $116.70 in pre-market trading.SVB Leerink raised Anthem, Inc. price target from $430 to $465. Anthem shares fell 2.5% to close at $428.44 on Wednesday.Piper Sandler lifted Lam Research Corporation price target from $597 to $627. Lam Research shares fell 4.9% to $567.23 in pre-market trading.HSBC boosted the price target for Albemarle Corporation from $250 to $280. Albemarle shares rose 1.6% to $208.88 in pre-market trading.Rosenblatt raised the price target on Seagate Technology Holdings plc from $115 to $120. Seagate shares rose 8% to $104.04 in pre-market trading.Goldman Sachs boosted Corning Incorporated price target from $38 to $50. Corning shares rose 1.8% to $39.93 in pre-market trading.Cowen & Co. cut the price target on Domino's Pizza, Inc. from $550 to $480. Domino's Pizza shares slipped 0.1% to $423.50 in pre-market trading.Macquarie cut the price target for Sea Limited from $435 to $285. Sea shares rose 0.4% to $136.10 in pre-market trading.JP Morgan boosted Tesla, Inc. price target from $295 to $325. Tesla shares fell 1% to $928.40 in pre-market trading.Wells Fargo lowered the price target on The Boeing Company from $272 to $250. Boeing shares rose 0.2% to $194.68 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093287474,"gmtCreate":1643640387795,"gmtModify":1676533839034,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>Will it rise more?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>Will it rise more?","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$Will it rise more?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/d36add1bd3f03090874645869dfff803","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093287474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091717379,"gmtCreate":1643941135213,"gmtModify":1676533874462,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091717379","repostId":"1191852202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092911844,"gmtCreate":1644506944424,"gmtModify":1676533934988,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092911844","repostId":"2210593296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210593296","pubTimestamp":1644506662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210593296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks That Crashed More Than 20% in January and Are Great Buys Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210593296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Their long-term potential is too attractive to be discounted because of their performances last month.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Anytime there&#39;s a steep sell-off in the stock market it creates some buying opportunities. The challenge can be sorting out which stocks are likely to continue falling versus those that are likely to bounce back. But if you&#39;re looking at the long term, it may not be difficult to find some promising gems out there.</p><p>Last month, the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> had its worst month since the start of the pandemic, falling by more than 5%. <b>Trulieve Cannabis </b>(OTC:TCNNF), <b>Western Digital </b>(NASDAQ:WDC), and <b>Upstart Holdings </b>(NASDAQ:UPST) performed even worse, declining by more than 20%. Here&#39;s why, despite their rough starts to the year, they could make for terrific buys today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e1247acad42c21ee75869932e8f10\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>1. Trulieve Cannabis</h2><p>Shares of pot producer Trulieve Cannabis sank 24% in January. The decline sent the stock to lows not seen since October 2020. A big reason why the stock looks to be a solid buy right now, however, is that it and rival <b>Curaleaf Holdings</b> are the top companies in the cannabis industry.</p><p>Last year, Trulieve acquired Arizona-based producer Harvest Health &amp; Recreation, and together, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2021, they combined for revenue of $316 million and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) profit of $121 million. Curaleaf, by comparison, reported sales of just over $317 million for the same period, but its adjusted EBITDA was much lower at $71 million.</p><p>Curaleaf trades at a higher premium, with a price-to-sales multiple of 4.6 versus just 3.6 for Trulieve. It&#39;s a modest difference, but you could argue that a stronger bottom line from Trulieve should garner a better multiple. The business is now more diverse with Harvest Health in the mix, and better earnings could set the company up for more acquisitions to take advantage of the fast-growing cannabis industry. Analysts from Markets and Markets expect the industry as a whole will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% until 2026, when it may be worth more than $90 billion globally.</p><p>Trulieve is a promising stock to own after an abysmal January, and could be a diamond in the rough for investors willing to buy and hold.</p><h2>2. Western Digital</h2><p>Western Digital stock had a slightly better January than Trulieve, but it too fell by a relatively steep 21%. It&#39;s a surprising performance given that the company&#39;s second-quarter earnings, which it released on Jan. 27, looked strong. Sales of $4.8 billion for the period ending Dec. 31, 2021 were up 23% year-over-year, and its cloud business generated revenue growth of 89%. The company notes that it achieved this while dealing with supply chain disruptions.</p><p>The future is undoubtedly in the cloud, and Western Digital and its portable drives and technology make it easy for people to work from home and businesses to digitize their operations. The market for global digital transformation, which includes utilizing more connected devices, will grow at a CAGR of 23.6% until 2028, according to estimates from Grand View Research.</p><p>Western Digital&#39;s stock trades at a modest forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.3 -- nearly half the size of rival <b>Seagate</b>, where investors are paying more than 12 times its future profits. Several brokerages project that Western Digital could rise to more than $70 per share, which would be at least a 35% increase in value from the $52 it trades at today.</p><h2>3. Upstart Holdings</h2><p>Upstart Holdings crashed by 28% last month, performing the worst of the stocks on this list. However, it&#39;s also the fastest-growing; in its most recently released quarterly results for the period ending Sept. 30, 2021, the company&#39;s sales of $228 million rose by 250% from the prior-year period. The company, which looks to revolutionize the lending business through its artificial intelligence platform and utilization of 1,000+ data points to assess creditworthiness, is a disruptor in the financial services industry, with the potential to generate significant returns in the long run.</p><p>What impresses me the most about the business is that, in addition to some incredible growth numbers, Upstart also generates impressive margins. Over its past three quarters, the company has generated an operating profit of $80.5 million, or 15% of its total sales of $543.7 million. With a relatively young company (it went public in December 2020), investors normally expect growth but not a whole lot in terms of profitability. And yet Upstart has posted a profit in each of its last four quarters, averaging a profit margin of more than 12% in the trailing 12 months.</p><p>It isn&#39;t a cheap stock by any stretch, trading at more than 43 times its future earnings (investors are paying a multiple of 27 for popular fintech stock <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b>), but that number will come down if Upstart can keep building off this impressive growth. At a share price of just $100, many analysts see the stock not just doubling but potentially even tripling in value from where it is right now.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks That Crashed More Than 20% in January and Are Great Buys Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks That Crashed More Than 20% in January and Are Great Buys Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 23:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/10/3-stocks-that-crashed-more-than-20-in-january-and/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Anytime there's a steep sell-off in the stock market it creates some buying opportunities. The challenge can be sorting out which stocks are likely to continue falling versus those that are likely to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/10/3-stocks-that-crashed-more-than-20-in-january-and/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDC":"西部数据","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","CAGR":"California Grapes International, Inc.","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/10/3-stocks-that-crashed-more-than-20-in-january-and/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210593296","content_text":"Anytime there's a steep sell-off in the stock market it creates some buying opportunities. The challenge can be sorting out which stocks are likely to continue falling versus those that are likely to bounce back. But if you're looking at the long term, it may not be difficult to find some promising gems out there.Last month, the S&P 500 had its worst month since the start of the pandemic, falling by more than 5%. Trulieve Cannabis (OTC:TCNNF), Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), and Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) performed even worse, declining by more than 20%. Here's why, despite their rough starts to the year, they could make for terrific buys today.Image source: Getty Images.1. Trulieve CannabisShares of pot producer Trulieve Cannabis sank 24% in January. The decline sent the stock to lows not seen since October 2020. A big reason why the stock looks to be a solid buy right now, however, is that it and rival Curaleaf Holdings are the top companies in the cannabis industry.Last year, Trulieve acquired Arizona-based producer Harvest Health & Recreation, and together, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2021, they combined for revenue of $316 million and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) profit of $121 million. Curaleaf, by comparison, reported sales of just over $317 million for the same period, but its adjusted EBITDA was much lower at $71 million.Curaleaf trades at a higher premium, with a price-to-sales multiple of 4.6 versus just 3.6 for Trulieve. It's a modest difference, but you could argue that a stronger bottom line from Trulieve should garner a better multiple. The business is now more diverse with Harvest Health in the mix, and better earnings could set the company up for more acquisitions to take advantage of the fast-growing cannabis industry. Analysts from Markets and Markets expect the industry as a whole will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% until 2026, when it may be worth more than $90 billion globally.Trulieve is a promising stock to own after an abysmal January, and could be a diamond in the rough for investors willing to buy and hold.2. Western DigitalWestern Digital stock had a slightly better January than Trulieve, but it too fell by a relatively steep 21%. It's a surprising performance given that the company's second-quarter earnings, which it released on Jan. 27, looked strong. Sales of $4.8 billion for the period ending Dec. 31, 2021 were up 23% year-over-year, and its cloud business generated revenue growth of 89%. The company notes that it achieved this while dealing with supply chain disruptions.The future is undoubtedly in the cloud, and Western Digital and its portable drives and technology make it easy for people to work from home and businesses to digitize their operations. The market for global digital transformation, which includes utilizing more connected devices, will grow at a CAGR of 23.6% until 2028, according to estimates from Grand View Research.Western Digital's stock trades at a modest forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.3 -- nearly half the size of rival Seagate, where investors are paying more than 12 times its future profits. Several brokerages project that Western Digital could rise to more than $70 per share, which would be at least a 35% increase in value from the $52 it trades at today.3. Upstart HoldingsUpstart Holdings crashed by 28% last month, performing the worst of the stocks on this list. However, it's also the fastest-growing; in its most recently released quarterly results for the period ending Sept. 30, 2021, the company's sales of $228 million rose by 250% from the prior-year period. The company, which looks to revolutionize the lending business through its artificial intelligence platform and utilization of 1,000+ data points to assess creditworthiness, is a disruptor in the financial services industry, with the potential to generate significant returns in the long run.What impresses me the most about the business is that, in addition to some incredible growth numbers, Upstart also generates impressive margins. Over its past three quarters, the company has generated an operating profit of $80.5 million, or 15% of its total sales of $543.7 million. With a relatively young company (it went public in December 2020), investors normally expect growth but not a whole lot in terms of profitability. And yet Upstart has posted a profit in each of its last four quarters, averaging a profit margin of more than 12% in the trailing 12 months.It isn't a cheap stock by any stretch, trading at more than 43 times its future earnings (investors are paying a multiple of 27 for popular fintech stock PayPal), but that number will come down if Upstart can keep building off this impressive growth. At a share price of just $100, many analysts see the stock not just doubling but potentially even tripling in value from where it is right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032922597,"gmtCreate":1647265197452,"gmtModify":1676534209451,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it will continue to rise!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it will continue to rise!","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it will continue to rise!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/896ffb5403fc584fdbfbb29376f1837f","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032922597","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098152879,"gmtCreate":1644057291611,"gmtModify":1676533886799,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the insights","listText":"Thanks for the insights","text":"Thanks for the insights","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098152879","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099982379,"gmtCreate":1643290624620,"gmtModify":1676533797584,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099982379","repostId":"1105597647","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018047574,"gmtCreate":1648952239744,"gmtModify":1676534426896,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it continues to rise!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MULN\">$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$</a>Hope it continues to rise!","text":"$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$Hope it continues to rise!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/236dc34f90de18a3cfc9463681b75a0f","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018047574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032927329,"gmtCreate":1647265547469,"gmtModify":1676534209521,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$Smart Share Global(EM)$</a>This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$Smart Share Global(EM)$</a>This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","text":"$Smart Share Global(EM)$This company is too volatile. Don't think it is a good buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032927329","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032922868,"gmtCreate":1647265152462,"gmtModify":1676534209451,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article!","listText":"Great article!","text":"Great article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032922868","repostId":"1126067174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094805486,"gmtCreate":1645103039422,"gmtModify":1676533997123,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article!","listText":"Great article!","text":"Great article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094805486","repostId":"2211253659","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092569529,"gmtCreate":1644670359295,"gmtModify":1676533952006,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092569529","repostId":"1106670391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106670391","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1644624282,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106670391?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-12 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Five Reasons Why You Need to Buy the Dip in Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106670391","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"We’re not getting a 1970s-style inflation spike. Inflation is likely to ease this year, reducing dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We’re not getting a 1970s-style inflation spike. Inflation is likely to ease this year, reducing downward pressure on stocks.</p><p>Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s potential reaction to it have the stock market all shook up.</p><p>But like early concerns that Elvis Presley and rock ‘n’ roll would ruin the country, these are just false fears. So stocks are a buy every time the market hits replay on this song.</p><p>Thursday’s decline in the stock market won’t be the last. Inflation, which the government reported came in at a searing 7.5% for January, will print high for a month or two. But inflation will show signs of calming down this summer and throughout the second half of the year.</p><p>This will ease fears of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral that would have the Fed doing a Paul Volcker 2.0 hatchet job on growth. To fight inflation, Fed chair Volcker hiked rates so much in the late 1970s and early 1980s that he slammed the economy into a painful recession.</p><p>That’s not going to happen this time around, for the reasons below. Growth will continue to be OK because of embedded forms of stimulus, including: Low inventories that have to be rebuilt; strong consumer and corporate balance sheets; and low consumer confidence, which has plenty of room to improve as the Covid decline becomes more evident.</p><p>“If we see inflation coming down on its own, that would bring great joy and cheer to the markets,” says Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research. “That would mean the Fed doesn’t have to catch up in an abrupt fashion.”</p><p>That’s Yardeni’s take, and I think he’s right for the following five reasons.</p><p><b>Reason #1: Supply-chain issues are a fixable problem</b></p><p>Covid really screwed up supply chains, as lockdowns and worker illnesses got in the way. This created shortages, which drove up prices. But with Omicron shifting Covid into an endemic phase, supply chains are getting fixed. The related pricing pressure will ease.</p><p>For example, one of the big drivers of inflation is the rise in auto prices, thanks to chip shortages limiting production. But Japan’s auto production rose in November and December, according to Haver Analytics. If Japanese companies can find chips, then others will too. Improved production will bring down soaring used and new car prices, predicts Yardeni.</p><p>We see signs that supply chains are already being repaired, as there’s been a decline in unfilled orders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e51449d6cce7e9d5b36dd315c584c3e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #2: Demand shock is waning</b></p><p>Besides Covid, a demand shock crippled supply chains. When governments and central banks throw tons of money into the economy, guess what? People spend it freely. That drives up prices.</p><p>Now, though, the free money is dwindling. Generous unemployment benefits have ended. President Joe Biden’s failure to get Build Back Better passed signaled the end of trillion-dollar Covid-era spending plans.</p><p>“We won’t get any more fiscal stimulus, so demand will simmer down,” says Yardeni.</p><p>The Fed will soon start trimming its balance sheet. This will ease demand pressures, too.</p><p>In the chart below, we see that the contraction in the federal deficit relative to GDP can foreshadow a decline in inflation. The chart comes from James Paulsen, an economist and chief market strategist at the independent research firm Leuthold. Note that the red line representing the deficit-to-GDP ratio is pushed forward by a year, because of the lag in the impact this has on inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd40a40305fc108274d45b309ea26cc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #3: Productivity is coming to the rescue</b></p><p>Thanks to labor shortages, companies have really increased their spending on technology and machines (capital spending) to boost productivity. Defined as output per worker, productivity goes up when the technology-to-labor ratio increases in the workplace.</p><p>You can see this in the big increase in durable goods orders, but companies are telling us the same thing. Blackstone Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Gray says companies owned by his firm are spending 15%-20% more on technology.</p><p>As companies get more output from the same labor cost, they feel less pressure to pass their own cost increases on to customers. That is happening now. We know this because profit margins are holding up despite labor cost increases.</p><p>The chart below also confirms that productivity, while volatile, is consistently higher since the start of the pandemic. In contrast, during the 1970s wage-price spiral, productivity growth had collapsed — one reason the Fed had to play rough.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce23778e814d63f264f9e6f53cf745b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #4: Money supply growth is slowing</b></p><p>This is a pretty good predictor of inflation, says Paulsen. This makes sense, because when people get more money (more is injected into the economy), they tend to spend more, driving up prices. Currently, money supply growth is contracting, so inflation will too.</p><p>In the chart below, the red line representing money supply is pushed forward by one year. That’s because the change in money supply growth affects inflation with about a one-year lag.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef272027f91767596c4c34fd565732d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #5: The dollar is strong</b></p><p>A strong dollar reduces foreign demand for U.S. products. This cools off inflation in the U.S. That is happening now. This chart shows the tight relationship between the dollar and U.S. prices. The red line representing the dollar is on an inverted scale, which means it declines as the dollar strengthens. The blue line is prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f851dbd24fb4a09ea1507dde92ab9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>It’s a good time to buy stocks</b></p><p>All of this tells us that you need to buy whenever your fellow investors freak out and sell stocks because of fresh worries about inflation forcing the Fed to play tough. That’s not going to happen because inflation will subside.</p><p>The inflation and Fed panic this week won’t be the last, since signs of inflation’s decline probably won’t appear until April or May. Plus, the Fed still has to start hiking rates and trimming its balance sheet. These moves could cause tremors, too.</p><p>Yardeni thinks the S&amp;P 500 will be up 7% by year-end, with plenty of buyable dips at least through midyear. He projects 15% gains in the S&amp;P 500 by mid-2023.</p><p>“We would use the cash to buy stocks on dips,” he says.</p><p>Companies have so much cash ($3.7 trillion, excluding holdings of equities and mutual funds), they may be right there with you, buying the pullbacks. Or buying other companies in the weakness, as we saw in January. Purchases of companies in tech in January were the second-highest on record.</p><p>The “Fed put” may be kaput, but the “CFO put” may replace it, says Yardeni. He favors energy, financials and beaten-down tech.</p><p>If, like me, you favor stocks that insiders are buying, here are three to consider in these sectors.</p><p><b>Continental Resources</b></p><p>I was singling out Continental Resources as a “must own” name in the $7.50 to $15 range in 2020 in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (link in bio below). It now trades for $55, but I still like it. One reason is that founder Harold Hamm continues to be a big buyer of the shares, most recently in the upper $40 range. Another reason is that Hamm was an early buyer of natural gas resources in the U.S. so he got some of the best fields, and he got them cheap. Like Hamm, who is a big owner, investors today still reap the rewards from this.</p><p><b>Western Alliance Bancorp</b></p><p>Bank stocks have been strong. But Western Alliance Bancorp still looks attractive because CEO Kenneth Vecchione and CFO Dale Gibbons just bought over $1 million worth of stock up to $100 per share. Vecchione has a good record for timing purchases. Western Alliance is a Phoenix-based bank that beefed up its mortgage business with the acquisition of AmeriHome Mortgage Co. in April. Banks do well when the economy expands, because loan growth picks up and loan quality improves. Both of these trends played out at Western Alliance in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Microsoft</b></p><p>Like most tech companies, Microsoft got hit hard in January, falling around 20% to the low $280 range. In the selloff, director Emma Walmsley bought over $1 million worth of stock at $296 to $311.50. You can currently get the stock for the same prices or better. Under CEO Satya Nadella, Microsoft has hit its stride as a digital-transformation play with its Azure offering. The trend will continue to support solid growth, such as the 20% sales increase in the fourth quarter, which drove diluted earnings per share up 22%.</p><p><b>One big challenge remaining?</b></p><p>One problem for stocks right now is that inflation tends to weigh on valuation multiples. But this may have already played out. It sure looks like it, in the chart below. Should inflation begin to ease, so will these valuation contractions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146b6b6f5e901b1b7fe120db83cfc07f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Five Reasons Why You Need to Buy the Dip in Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Fears Are Overblown — Five Reasons Why You Need to Buy the Dip in Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-12 08:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>We’re not getting a 1970s-style inflation spike. Inflation is likely to ease this year, reducing downward pressure on stocks.</p><p>Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s potential reaction to it have the stock market all shook up.</p><p>But like early concerns that Elvis Presley and rock ‘n’ roll would ruin the country, these are just false fears. So stocks are a buy every time the market hits replay on this song.</p><p>Thursday’s decline in the stock market won’t be the last. Inflation, which the government reported came in at a searing 7.5% for January, will print high for a month or two. But inflation will show signs of calming down this summer and throughout the second half of the year.</p><p>This will ease fears of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral that would have the Fed doing a Paul Volcker 2.0 hatchet job on growth. To fight inflation, Fed chair Volcker hiked rates so much in the late 1970s and early 1980s that he slammed the economy into a painful recession.</p><p>That’s not going to happen this time around, for the reasons below. Growth will continue to be OK because of embedded forms of stimulus, including: Low inventories that have to be rebuilt; strong consumer and corporate balance sheets; and low consumer confidence, which has plenty of room to improve as the Covid decline becomes more evident.</p><p>“If we see inflation coming down on its own, that would bring great joy and cheer to the markets,” says Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research. “That would mean the Fed doesn’t have to catch up in an abrupt fashion.”</p><p>That’s Yardeni’s take, and I think he’s right for the following five reasons.</p><p><b>Reason #1: Supply-chain issues are a fixable problem</b></p><p>Covid really screwed up supply chains, as lockdowns and worker illnesses got in the way. This created shortages, which drove up prices. But with Omicron shifting Covid into an endemic phase, supply chains are getting fixed. The related pricing pressure will ease.</p><p>For example, one of the big drivers of inflation is the rise in auto prices, thanks to chip shortages limiting production. But Japan’s auto production rose in November and December, according to Haver Analytics. If Japanese companies can find chips, then others will too. Improved production will bring down soaring used and new car prices, predicts Yardeni.</p><p>We see signs that supply chains are already being repaired, as there’s been a decline in unfilled orders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e51449d6cce7e9d5b36dd315c584c3e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #2: Demand shock is waning</b></p><p>Besides Covid, a demand shock crippled supply chains. When governments and central banks throw tons of money into the economy, guess what? People spend it freely. That drives up prices.</p><p>Now, though, the free money is dwindling. Generous unemployment benefits have ended. President Joe Biden’s failure to get Build Back Better passed signaled the end of trillion-dollar Covid-era spending plans.</p><p>“We won’t get any more fiscal stimulus, so demand will simmer down,” says Yardeni.</p><p>The Fed will soon start trimming its balance sheet. This will ease demand pressures, too.</p><p>In the chart below, we see that the contraction in the federal deficit relative to GDP can foreshadow a decline in inflation. The chart comes from James Paulsen, an economist and chief market strategist at the independent research firm Leuthold. Note that the red line representing the deficit-to-GDP ratio is pushed forward by a year, because of the lag in the impact this has on inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd40a40305fc108274d45b309ea26cc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #3: Productivity is coming to the rescue</b></p><p>Thanks to labor shortages, companies have really increased their spending on technology and machines (capital spending) to boost productivity. Defined as output per worker, productivity goes up when the technology-to-labor ratio increases in the workplace.</p><p>You can see this in the big increase in durable goods orders, but companies are telling us the same thing. Blackstone Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Gray says companies owned by his firm are spending 15%-20% more on technology.</p><p>As companies get more output from the same labor cost, they feel less pressure to pass their own cost increases on to customers. That is happening now. We know this because profit margins are holding up despite labor cost increases.</p><p>The chart below also confirms that productivity, while volatile, is consistently higher since the start of the pandemic. In contrast, during the 1970s wage-price spiral, productivity growth had collapsed — one reason the Fed had to play rough.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce23778e814d63f264f9e6f53cf745b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #4: Money supply growth is slowing</b></p><p>This is a pretty good predictor of inflation, says Paulsen. This makes sense, because when people get more money (more is injected into the economy), they tend to spend more, driving up prices. Currently, money supply growth is contracting, so inflation will too.</p><p>In the chart below, the red line representing money supply is pushed forward by one year. That’s because the change in money supply growth affects inflation with about a one-year lag.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef272027f91767596c4c34fd565732d2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Reason #5: The dollar is strong</b></p><p>A strong dollar reduces foreign demand for U.S. products. This cools off inflation in the U.S. That is happening now. This chart shows the tight relationship between the dollar and U.S. prices. The red line representing the dollar is on an inverted scale, which means it declines as the dollar strengthens. The blue line is prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f851dbd24fb4a09ea1507dde92ab9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>It’s a good time to buy stocks</b></p><p>All of this tells us that you need to buy whenever your fellow investors freak out and sell stocks because of fresh worries about inflation forcing the Fed to play tough. That’s not going to happen because inflation will subside.</p><p>The inflation and Fed panic this week won’t be the last, since signs of inflation’s decline probably won’t appear until April or May. Plus, the Fed still has to start hiking rates and trimming its balance sheet. These moves could cause tremors, too.</p><p>Yardeni thinks the S&amp;P 500 will be up 7% by year-end, with plenty of buyable dips at least through midyear. He projects 15% gains in the S&amp;P 500 by mid-2023.</p><p>“We would use the cash to buy stocks on dips,” he says.</p><p>Companies have so much cash ($3.7 trillion, excluding holdings of equities and mutual funds), they may be right there with you, buying the pullbacks. Or buying other companies in the weakness, as we saw in January. Purchases of companies in tech in January were the second-highest on record.</p><p>The “Fed put” may be kaput, but the “CFO put” may replace it, says Yardeni. He favors energy, financials and beaten-down tech.</p><p>If, like me, you favor stocks that insiders are buying, here are three to consider in these sectors.</p><p><b>Continental Resources</b></p><p>I was singling out Continental Resources as a “must own” name in the $7.50 to $15 range in 2020 in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (link in bio below). It now trades for $55, but I still like it. One reason is that founder Harold Hamm continues to be a big buyer of the shares, most recently in the upper $40 range. Another reason is that Hamm was an early buyer of natural gas resources in the U.S. so he got some of the best fields, and he got them cheap. Like Hamm, who is a big owner, investors today still reap the rewards from this.</p><p><b>Western Alliance Bancorp</b></p><p>Bank stocks have been strong. But Western Alliance Bancorp still looks attractive because CEO Kenneth Vecchione and CFO Dale Gibbons just bought over $1 million worth of stock up to $100 per share. Vecchione has a good record for timing purchases. Western Alliance is a Phoenix-based bank that beefed up its mortgage business with the acquisition of AmeriHome Mortgage Co. in April. Banks do well when the economy expands, because loan growth picks up and loan quality improves. Both of these trends played out at Western Alliance in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Microsoft</b></p><p>Like most tech companies, Microsoft got hit hard in January, falling around 20% to the low $280 range. In the selloff, director Emma Walmsley bought over $1 million worth of stock at $296 to $311.50. You can currently get the stock for the same prices or better. Under CEO Satya Nadella, Microsoft has hit its stride as a digital-transformation play with its Azure offering. The trend will continue to support solid growth, such as the 20% sales increase in the fourth quarter, which drove diluted earnings per share up 22%.</p><p><b>One big challenge remaining?</b></p><p>One problem for stocks right now is that inflation tends to weigh on valuation multiples. But this may have already played out. It sure looks like it, in the chart below. Should inflation begin to ease, so will these valuation contractions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146b6b6f5e901b1b7fe120db83cfc07f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","CLR":"大陆能源","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106670391","content_text":"We’re not getting a 1970s-style inflation spike. Inflation is likely to ease this year, reducing downward pressure on stocks.Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s potential reaction to it have the stock market all shook up.But like early concerns that Elvis Presley and rock ‘n’ roll would ruin the country, these are just false fears. So stocks are a buy every time the market hits replay on this song.Thursday’s decline in the stock market won’t be the last. Inflation, which the government reported came in at a searing 7.5% for January, will print high for a month or two. But inflation will show signs of calming down this summer and throughout the second half of the year.This will ease fears of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral that would have the Fed doing a Paul Volcker 2.0 hatchet job on growth. To fight inflation, Fed chair Volcker hiked rates so much in the late 1970s and early 1980s that he slammed the economy into a painful recession.That’s not going to happen this time around, for the reasons below. Growth will continue to be OK because of embedded forms of stimulus, including: Low inventories that have to be rebuilt; strong consumer and corporate balance sheets; and low consumer confidence, which has plenty of room to improve as the Covid decline becomes more evident.“If we see inflation coming down on its own, that would bring great joy and cheer to the markets,” says Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research. “That would mean the Fed doesn’t have to catch up in an abrupt fashion.”That’s Yardeni’s take, and I think he’s right for the following five reasons.Reason #1: Supply-chain issues are a fixable problemCovid really screwed up supply chains, as lockdowns and worker illnesses got in the way. This created shortages, which drove up prices. But with Omicron shifting Covid into an endemic phase, supply chains are getting fixed. The related pricing pressure will ease.For example, one of the big drivers of inflation is the rise in auto prices, thanks to chip shortages limiting production. But Japan’s auto production rose in November and December, according to Haver Analytics. If Japanese companies can find chips, then others will too. Improved production will bring down soaring used and new car prices, predicts Yardeni.We see signs that supply chains are already being repaired, as there’s been a decline in unfilled orders.Reason #2: Demand shock is waningBesides Covid, a demand shock crippled supply chains. When governments and central banks throw tons of money into the economy, guess what? People spend it freely. That drives up prices.Now, though, the free money is dwindling. Generous unemployment benefits have ended. President Joe Biden’s failure to get Build Back Better passed signaled the end of trillion-dollar Covid-era spending plans.“We won’t get any more fiscal stimulus, so demand will simmer down,” says Yardeni.The Fed will soon start trimming its balance sheet. This will ease demand pressures, too.In the chart below, we see that the contraction in the federal deficit relative to GDP can foreshadow a decline in inflation. The chart comes from James Paulsen, an economist and chief market strategist at the independent research firm Leuthold. Note that the red line representing the deficit-to-GDP ratio is pushed forward by a year, because of the lag in the impact this has on inflation.Reason #3: Productivity is coming to the rescueThanks to labor shortages, companies have really increased their spending on technology and machines (capital spending) to boost productivity. Defined as output per worker, productivity goes up when the technology-to-labor ratio increases in the workplace.You can see this in the big increase in durable goods orders, but companies are telling us the same thing. Blackstone Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Gray says companies owned by his firm are spending 15%-20% more on technology.As companies get more output from the same labor cost, they feel less pressure to pass their own cost increases on to customers. That is happening now. We know this because profit margins are holding up despite labor cost increases.The chart below also confirms that productivity, while volatile, is consistently higher since the start of the pandemic. In contrast, during the 1970s wage-price spiral, productivity growth had collapsed — one reason the Fed had to play rough.Reason #4: Money supply growth is slowingThis is a pretty good predictor of inflation, says Paulsen. This makes sense, because when people get more money (more is injected into the economy), they tend to spend more, driving up prices. Currently, money supply growth is contracting, so inflation will too.In the chart below, the red line representing money supply is pushed forward by one year. That’s because the change in money supply growth affects inflation with about a one-year lag.Reason #5: The dollar is strongA strong dollar reduces foreign demand for U.S. products. This cools off inflation in the U.S. That is happening now. This chart shows the tight relationship between the dollar and U.S. prices. The red line representing the dollar is on an inverted scale, which means it declines as the dollar strengthens. The blue line is prices.It’s a good time to buy stocksAll of this tells us that you need to buy whenever your fellow investors freak out and sell stocks because of fresh worries about inflation forcing the Fed to play tough. That’s not going to happen because inflation will subside.The inflation and Fed panic this week won’t be the last, since signs of inflation’s decline probably won’t appear until April or May. Plus, the Fed still has to start hiking rates and trimming its balance sheet. These moves could cause tremors, too.Yardeni thinks the S&P 500 will be up 7% by year-end, with plenty of buyable dips at least through midyear. He projects 15% gains in the S&P 500 by mid-2023.“We would use the cash to buy stocks on dips,” he says.Companies have so much cash ($3.7 trillion, excluding holdings of equities and mutual funds), they may be right there with you, buying the pullbacks. Or buying other companies in the weakness, as we saw in January. Purchases of companies in tech in January were the second-highest on record.The “Fed put” may be kaput, but the “CFO put” may replace it, says Yardeni. He favors energy, financials and beaten-down tech.If, like me, you favor stocks that insiders are buying, here are three to consider in these sectors.Continental ResourcesI was singling out Continental Resources as a “must own” name in the $7.50 to $15 range in 2020 in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (link in bio below). It now trades for $55, but I still like it. One reason is that founder Harold Hamm continues to be a big buyer of the shares, most recently in the upper $40 range. Another reason is that Hamm was an early buyer of natural gas resources in the U.S. so he got some of the best fields, and he got them cheap. Like Hamm, who is a big owner, investors today still reap the rewards from this.Western Alliance BancorpBank stocks have been strong. But Western Alliance Bancorp still looks attractive because CEO Kenneth Vecchione and CFO Dale Gibbons just bought over $1 million worth of stock up to $100 per share. Vecchione has a good record for timing purchases. Western Alliance is a Phoenix-based bank that beefed up its mortgage business with the acquisition of AmeriHome Mortgage Co. in April. Banks do well when the economy expands, because loan growth picks up and loan quality improves. Both of these trends played out at Western Alliance in the third quarter.MicrosoftLike most tech companies, Microsoft got hit hard in January, falling around 20% to the low $280 range. In the selloff, director Emma Walmsley bought over $1 million worth of stock at $296 to $311.50. You can currently get the stock for the same prices or better. Under CEO Satya Nadella, Microsoft has hit its stride as a digital-transformation play with its Azure offering. The trend will continue to support solid growth, such as the 20% sales increase in the fourth quarter, which drove diluted earnings per share up 22%.One big challenge remaining?One problem for stocks right now is that inflation tends to weigh on valuation multiples. But this may have already played out. It sure looks like it, in the chart below. Should inflation begin to ease, so will these valuation contractions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093268064,"gmtCreate":1643640970022,"gmtModify":1676533839110,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!","listText":"Thanks for this!","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093268064","repostId":"1116027625","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093260081,"gmtCreate":1643640406187,"gmtModify":1676533839019,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LTCH\">$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$</a>Hope it will rise further!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LTCH\">$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$</a>Hope it will rise further!","text":"$Latch Inc.(LTCH)$Hope it will rise further!","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/604bfcc1653cb5342d3b33b43122b66b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093260081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093266888,"gmtCreate":1643641161745,"gmtModify":1676533839143,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for this!&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for this!&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093266888","repostId":"9099083114","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9099083114,"gmtCreate":1643278581423,"gmtModify":1676533794918,"author":{"id":"3527667626267411","authorId":"3527667626267411","name":"Value_investing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667626267411","authorIdStr":"3527667626267411"},"themes":[],"title":"Boeing Q4 results: Disappointing but bring us hope","htmlText":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","listText":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","text":"Last night, Boeing's Q4 earnings report poured cold water on investors. First, Boeing's fourth-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion fell well short of analysts' expectations of $16.7 billion. Second, Boeing had a jaw-dropping net loss of $4.2 billion in single quarter. After the release of the less-than-expected results, Boeing stock prices unsurprisingly plunged 5.44%. Although the Q4 results were disappointing, they do bring us hope.One is that Boeing achieved a rare positive cash flow, and the other is that aircraft deliveries kept growing. It is worth looking forward to Boeing's growth in 2022. Disappointing Q4 Results: In its earnings report released earlier this year, Boeing achieved 99 commercial airplane deliveries in the fourth quarter alone, a 68% jump year-over-year. Among them, the","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4cf1781c585aaa5086d3840f846609","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910ca71696c8e3e3deec504f57a3f34b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07b0acfd0380fed58437150c573073a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099083114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093269819,"gmtCreate":1643640620521,"gmtModify":1676533839055,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COMP\">$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$</a>Looking good today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COMP\">$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$</a>Looking good today?","text":"$Compass, Inc.(COMP)$Looking good today?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/c298a59501f85a38772af09869a88b63","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093269819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099985737,"gmtCreate":1643290711130,"gmtModify":1676533797613,"author":{"id":"3582594277762001","authorId":"3582594277762001","name":"DaphneTan","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5fa1b5420db09a263c8b787fc7d44936","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582594277762001","authorIdStr":"3582594277762001"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ITRI\">$Itron(ITRI)$</a>Hope this will rise soon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ITRI\">$Itron(ITRI)$</a>Hope this will rise soon!","text":"$Itron(ITRI)$Hope this will rise soon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099985737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}