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gwp0123

gwp0123

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2021-05-19

Wake up

摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉

2021-05-15

OK OK

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2021-05-13

$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol

2021-05-09

$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$Huston! Do you read?

2021-05-09

yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!

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2021-05-07

believed it or not, I am going in...

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2021-05-06

$COIN(COIN)$this week end we will see 250?

2021-05-04

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$Question is, to the hell or to the moon?

2021-05-04

seriously?

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2021-04-30

$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$Possible go back to 8 tonight? an important step!!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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up&nbsp;","listText":"Wake up&nbsp;","text":"Wake up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197922103","repostId":"1121400739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121400739","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1621418404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121400739?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121400739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“","content":"<blockquote>\n 别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。</p>\n<p>美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平，那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。</p>\n<p>然而，摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计，随着时间向着年底推移，美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势，或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%，明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4280e1ea0c4e026496c0f947ba6471a2\" tg-width=\"1226\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基于这种通胀预期，摩根士丹利认为，很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实，美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀，而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方，</p>\n<p>而且，非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合，不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。</p>\n<p>投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为，关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号，等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。</p>\n<p><b>高通胀会带来强美元？</b></p>\n<p>眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期，市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久，但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。</p>\n<p>那么，高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗？摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同：并不必然。</p>\n<p>这家银行的分析师们认为，美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动，继续对外释放偏鸽派立场，尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。</p>\n<p>不过摩根士丹利还表示，一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息，那么通胀预期会减淡，美元的画风也会随之改变，汇率将在年底前走高。</p>\n<p>分析师们表示，从长期角度看，如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀，则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内，通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。</p>\n<p>就过去多年的历史表现而言，每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时，美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89ba861b62869a841bc6275b48ba1d9\" tg-width=\"1277\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>别只看通胀数据，美联储的淡定是老传统了</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期，从而导致本币汇率走强；而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高，从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n</blockquote>\n<p>偏偏美联储的情况比较特别：这么多年来，美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面，官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在，他们也还认为，名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久，才会考虑收紧政策。</p>\n<p>基于这种规律，摩根士丹利认为，当美国通胀率高于市场预期，应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱，而非走强，因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。</p>\n<p>那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后，美元指数当时走高了呢？摩根士丹利解释说，这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为，美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略，去收紧政策，因为目前通胀实在是太高了。</p>\n<p>如果这种解释确实是事实，投资者真是这么想的，摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为，美联储大概率维持当前的观点，理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好，零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。</p>\n<p>换句话说，通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。</p>\n<p>“有基于此，美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。</p>\n<p><b>到秋天，美联储可能才会行动起来</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 到那时，美国经济复苏应当会取得更多进展，理论上会有更多数据显示出通胀压力确实具有持续性，到底会不会削减QE这个疑问也会慢慢清晰起来，那才会推高美元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9cef6917b49eee6479d1e25288e72\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-19 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121400739","content_text":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平，那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。\n然而，摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计，随着时间向着年底推移，美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势，或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%，明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。\n\n基于这种通胀预期，摩根士丹利认为，很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实，美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀，而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方，\n而且，非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合，不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。\n投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为，关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号，等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。\n高通胀会带来强美元？\n眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期，市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久，但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。\n那么，高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗？摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同：并不必然。\n这家银行的分析师们认为，美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动，继续对外释放偏鸽派立场，尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。\n不过摩根士丹利还表示，一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息，那么通胀预期会减淡，美元的画风也会随之改变，汇率将在年底前走高。\n分析师们表示，从长期角度看，如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀，则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内，通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。\n就过去多年的历史表现而言，每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时，美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。\n\n别只看通胀数据，美联储的淡定是老传统了\n摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律：\n\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期，从而导致本币汇率走强；而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高，从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n\n偏偏美联储的情况比较特别：这么多年来，美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面，官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在，他们也还认为，名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久，才会考虑收紧政策。\n基于这种规律，摩根士丹利认为，当美国通胀率高于市场预期，应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱，而非走强，因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。\n那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后，美元指数当时走高了呢？摩根士丹利解释说，这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为，美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略，去收紧政策，因为目前通胀实在是太高了。\n如果这种解释确实是事实，投资者真是这么想的，摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为，美联储大概率维持当前的观点，理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好，零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。\n换句话说，通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。\n“有基于此，美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。\n到秋天，美联储可能才会行动起来\n摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。\n\n 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