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02-02 10:32

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Oracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year

2025-06-23

$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ CD

2025-06-23

$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ /

2025-05-04

Why There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett

2024-04-18

E

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2021-06-29

Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth

NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation

2021-06-21

Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks

Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-19

Time for correction.

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2021-06-18

Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1

UPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body

2021-06-18

Well done

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Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608887657","media":"Reuters","summary":"UPDATE 2-Oracle says it plans to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity this year Adds background in paragraphs 6-8 Feb 1 (Reuters) - Oracle ORCL.N expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a> expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.</p><p>Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/928e3ac62448337720091ee1ed617f34\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.</p><p>&#34;Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others&#34;, the company said in a statement.</p><p>Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.</p><p>The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.</p><p>Investors have scrutinized Oracle&#39;s AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.</p><p>Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.</p><p>The cost of insuring Oracle&#39;s debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-02 10:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a> expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.</p><p>Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/928e3ac62448337720091ee1ed617f34\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.</p><p>&#34;Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others&#34;, the company said in a statement.</p><p>Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.</p><p>The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.</p><p>Investors have scrutinized Oracle&#39;s AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.</p><p>Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.</p><p>The cost of insuring Oracle&#39;s debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five years.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU2272731782.SGD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20260201:nL1N3YX0AG:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608887657","content_text":"(Reuters) - Oracle expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.\"Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including AMD, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others\", the company said in a statement.Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.Investors have scrutinized Oracle's AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.The cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five 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/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449198355968336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":431315675136680,"gmtCreate":1746325180389,"gmtModify":1746325183597,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/431315675136680","repostId":"2532364987","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2532364987","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1746324000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2532364987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-04 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532364987","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Three things combined to make Buffett, the stock-intoxicated man, an unrivaled investorWarren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.There’s only one Warren Buffett,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Three things combined to make Buffett, the stock-intoxicated man, an unrivaled investor</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/070dd4cf53d0869fa08da24acac9cde8\" alt=\"Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.\" title=\"Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"875\"/><span>Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">There’s only one Warren Buffett, and there will never be another.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On May 3, Buffett announced that he will step down as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate he has built into one of the most successful investments in history. There are three reasons why he has no equal and never will: the person, the period and the package.</p><p>Let’s start with the person. Buffett is not only brilliant, but he has also spent nearly his entire long lifetime obsessed with the stock market. Especially in his early years as an investor, his unparalleled success depended on an unbearable sacrifice: forgoing a normal social and family life. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A later writer called the great 17th-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza “the god-intoxicated man.” Buffett is the stock-intoxicated man. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ever since 1942, when he bought his first stock at age 11, he has devoured information about companies, reading corporate reports the way most people listen to music<strong>. </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As a young investment manager, Buffett would wander through his house with his nose in a corporate annual report, practically bumping into the furniture, oblivious to the comings and goings of family and friends. While his kids played at an amusement park, he would sit on a bench and read financial statements. Buffett was there physically, but mentally and emotionally he was off in a world of his own, fixated on tax-loss carryforwards and amortization schedules.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/36502d3ad1d293fdc7f6e16b8c57e598\" alt=\"Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.\" title=\"Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"438\"/><span>Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Imagine being that obsessed. Imagine enjoying it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Now imagine enjoying it almost every waking moment ever since Harry Truman was in the White House. That’s how unusual Buffett is.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Expertise is rooted in pattern recognition, and Buffett has seen every conceivable pattern. Given what I know about his work habits, I estimate—conservatively, I believe—that Buffett has read more than 100,000 financial statements in his more-than-seven-decade career. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And his memory is almost supernatural. Years ago, winding up a phone interview with Buffett, I mentioned a book I was reading. He exclaimed that he had also read it—more than a half-century earlier. As he began describing a passage, I grabbed the book, found the page and realized to my astonishment that Buffett recalled almost every sentence verbatim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">His unparalleled exposure to financial information, combined with his prodigious memory, made Buffett into a human form of artificial intelligence. He could answer almost any query out of his own internal database.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That has given him an unparalleled ability to identify the kernel of significance in any new bit of information—and a durable advantage over other investors. Now that AI is universally available, a person with Buffett’s massive command of data won’t even have an advantage in the future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7de6ab9dd2ad7e24729cd003ef036238\" alt=\"Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.\" title=\"Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Then there’s the period—the time over which Buffett has exercised his investing prowess. As he has said many times, he won “the ovarian lottery” by being born when and where he was.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Had Buffett been born in Omaha in (say) 1880 instead of 1930, he would have had to invest in livestock instead of stocks. Had he been born in 1930 in Omsk instead of Omaha, he wouldn’t have owned railways; he probably would have worked on the Trans-Siberian Railway.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And Buffett happened to come of age just in time to study under Benjamin Graham, the pioneer of security analysis and one of the greatest investors of the past century.</p><p>Buffett also began his career before trillions of dollars had poured into the stock market from index funds and other giant institutional investors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He built his phenomenal early track record by fishing where no one else was even looking to catch anything. He fed on the tiniest plankton of the stock market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He bet big on these small fry. At various points, his investment partnerships had 21% of their total assets in Dempster Mill Manufacturing, a maker of agricultural equipment based in Beatrice, Neb., and 35% in Sanborn Map, a New York-based cartography company whose investment portfolio alone was worth more than its stock price. Sometimes it took him years to build a position in stocks that almost never traded.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">From 1957 through 1968, such obscure bets helped produce an average return of 25.3% annually, compared with 10.5% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Buffett was able to outperform the market by stepping outside the market as most other professional investors then defined it. A study of the returns of stock mutual funds from 1945 through 1964 compared them to the Standard &amp; Poor’s Composite and found that none performed significantly better than would be expected “from mere random chance.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Buffett, on the other hand, bought almost nothing that was part of a major market index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Standard &amp; Poor’s Composite (as the S&amp;P 500 was then known).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And Buffett didn’t merely succeed. He succeeded over one of the longest career spans any investor has ever had. He took over Berkshire, a tattered manufacturer of textiles, in 1965. By the end of last year, Buffett had racked up an annualized average return of 19.9%, compared with 10.4% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Almost anyone with a reasonable amount of luck can beat the market over a year. So far as I know, no one in history has beaten the market by so wide a margin over a period of six decades—because only Buffett has combined extraordinary investment skill with such extraordinary longevity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8800c40057c7acb30e0a1898d4d5c800\" alt=\"Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.\" title=\"Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span>Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Finally, Buffett placed his investments in a package like none other.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire Hathaway operates as a publicly traded holding company, a receptacle for whatever he has thought worth owning: other publicly traded stocks, Treasury bonds, private companies. At one point it was even one of the world’s largest holders of silver; now it holds more than $330 billion in cash. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire isn’t a hedge fund, mutual fund, exchange-traded fund or any other conventional investment vehicle.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">By design, it charges no management fees that would subtract from its returns and no performance-incentive fees that would encourage excessive risk-taking in pursuit of a big payday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Most investment funds operate under a curse that economists call “procyclicality.” After a fund racks up a streak of good returns, investors throw money at the fund, forcing its managers to put the new cash to work in a market that is likely becoming overpriced. That hinders future performance.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Then, when returns falter in a falling market, investors yank their money out, forcing the fund managers to sell just as bargains are becoming abundant. The fund’s own investors make its performance worse, intensifying the market’s ups and downs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire’s only cash flows, however, are internal. Money comes in from (or goes out to) the assets it owns. Cash can’t come pouring in from new investors, or get yanked out by fleeing investors, at the worst possible times—because you can invest in Berkshire only by buying shares from someone else in the secondary market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This package has given Buffett a structural advantage that has enabled him to pursue opportunities wherever and whenever he has perceived them. That’s a luxury almost no other professional investor has—or even wants.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So long as most fund managers can earn a lavish living for underperforming the market, the real risk for them will be trying anything different. Pigs will sprout feathers before anybody has the daring to try truly emulating Warren Buffett.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-04 10:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Three things combined to make Buffett, the stock-intoxicated man, an unrivaled investor</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/070dd4cf53d0869fa08da24acac9cde8\" alt=\"Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.\" title=\"Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"875\"/><span>Warren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">There’s only one Warren Buffett, and there will never be another.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On May 3, Buffett announced that he will step down as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate he has built into one of the most successful investments in history. There are three reasons why he has no equal and never will: the person, the period and the package.</p><p>Let’s start with the person. Buffett is not only brilliant, but he has also spent nearly his entire long lifetime obsessed with the stock market. Especially in his early years as an investor, his unparalleled success depended on an unbearable sacrifice: forgoing a normal social and family life. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A later writer called the great 17th-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza “the god-intoxicated man.” Buffett is the stock-intoxicated man. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ever since 1942, when he bought his first stock at age 11, he has devoured information about companies, reading corporate reports the way most people listen to music<strong>. </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As a young investment manager, Buffett would wander through his house with his nose in a corporate annual report, practically bumping into the furniture, oblivious to the comings and goings of family and friends. While his kids played at an amusement park, he would sit on a bench and read financial statements. Buffett was there physically, but mentally and emotionally he was off in a world of his own, fixated on tax-loss carryforwards and amortization schedules.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/36502d3ad1d293fdc7f6e16b8c57e598\" alt=\"Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.\" title=\"Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"438\"/><span>Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Imagine being that obsessed. Imagine enjoying it.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Now imagine enjoying it almost every waking moment ever since Harry Truman was in the White House. That’s how unusual Buffett is.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Expertise is rooted in pattern recognition, and Buffett has seen every conceivable pattern. Given what I know about his work habits, I estimate—conservatively, I believe—that Buffett has read more than 100,000 financial statements in his more-than-seven-decade career. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And his memory is almost supernatural. Years ago, winding up a phone interview with Buffett, I mentioned a book I was reading. He exclaimed that he had also read it—more than a half-century earlier. As he began describing a passage, I grabbed the book, found the page and realized to my astonishment that Buffett recalled almost every sentence verbatim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">His unparalleled exposure to financial information, combined with his prodigious memory, made Buffett into a human form of artificial intelligence. He could answer almost any query out of his own internal database.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That has given him an unparalleled ability to identify the kernel of significance in any new bit of information—and a durable advantage over other investors. Now that AI is universally available, a person with Buffett’s massive command of data won’t even have an advantage in the future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7de6ab9dd2ad7e24729cd003ef036238\" alt=\"Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.\" title=\"Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Then there’s the period—the time over which Buffett has exercised his investing prowess. As he has said many times, he won “the ovarian lottery” by being born when and where he was.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Had Buffett been born in Omaha in (say) 1880 instead of 1930, he would have had to invest in livestock instead of stocks. Had he been born in 1930 in Omsk instead of Omaha, he wouldn’t have owned railways; he probably would have worked on the Trans-Siberian Railway.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And Buffett happened to come of age just in time to study under Benjamin Graham, the pioneer of security analysis and one of the greatest investors of the past century.</p><p>Buffett also began his career before trillions of dollars had poured into the stock market from index funds and other giant institutional investors.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He built his phenomenal early track record by fishing where no one else was even looking to catch anything. He fed on the tiniest plankton of the stock market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He bet big on these small fry. At various points, his investment partnerships had 21% of their total assets in Dempster Mill Manufacturing, a maker of agricultural equipment based in Beatrice, Neb., and 35% in Sanborn Map, a New York-based cartography company whose investment portfolio alone was worth more than its stock price. Sometimes it took him years to build a position in stocks that almost never traded.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">From 1957 through 1968, such obscure bets helped produce an average return of 25.3% annually, compared with 10.5% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Buffett was able to outperform the market by stepping outside the market as most other professional investors then defined it. A study of the returns of stock mutual funds from 1945 through 1964 compared them to the Standard &amp; Poor’s Composite and found that none performed significantly better than would be expected “from mere random chance.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Buffett, on the other hand, bought almost nothing that was part of a major market index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Standard &amp; Poor’s Composite (as the S&amp;P 500 was then known).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And Buffett didn’t merely succeed. He succeeded over one of the longest career spans any investor has ever had. He took over Berkshire, a tattered manufacturer of textiles, in 1965. By the end of last year, Buffett had racked up an annualized average return of 19.9%, compared with 10.4% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Almost anyone with a reasonable amount of luck can beat the market over a year. So far as I know, no one in history has beaten the market by so wide a margin over a period of six decades—because only Buffett has combined extraordinary investment skill with such extraordinary longevity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8800c40057c7acb30e0a1898d4d5c800\" alt=\"Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.\" title=\"Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span>Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Finally, Buffett placed his investments in a package like none other.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire Hathaway operates as a publicly traded holding company, a receptacle for whatever he has thought worth owning: other publicly traded stocks, Treasury bonds, private companies. At one point it was even one of the world’s largest holders of silver; now it holds more than $330 billion in cash. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire isn’t a hedge fund, mutual fund, exchange-traded fund or any other conventional investment vehicle.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">By design, it charges no management fees that would subtract from its returns and no performance-incentive fees that would encourage excessive risk-taking in pursuit of a big payday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Most investment funds operate under a curse that economists call “procyclicality.” After a fund racks up a streak of good returns, investors throw money at the fund, forcing its managers to put the new cash to work in a market that is likely becoming overpriced. That hinders future performance.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Then, when returns falter in a falling market, investors yank their money out, forcing the fund managers to sell just as bargains are becoming abundant. The fund’s own investors make its performance worse, intensifying the market’s ups and downs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Berkshire’s only cash flows, however, are internal. Money comes in from (or goes out to) the assets it owns. Cash can’t come pouring in from new investors, or get yanked out by fleeing investors, at the worst possible times—because you can invest in Berkshire only by buying shares from someone else in the secondary market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This package has given Buffett a structural advantage that has enabled him to pursue opportunities wherever and whenever he has perceived them. That’s a luxury almost no other professional investor has—or even wants.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So long as most fund managers can earn a lavish living for underperforming the market, the real risk for them will be trying anything different. Pigs will sprout feathers before anybody has the daring to try truly emulating Warren Buffett.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2532364987","content_text":"Three things combined to make Buffett, the stock-intoxicated man, an unrivaled investorWarren Buffett is planning to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at year-end.There’s only one Warren Buffett, and there will never be another.On May 3, Buffett announced that he will step down as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate he has built into one of the most successful investments in history. There are three reasons why he has no equal and never will: the person, the period and the package.Let’s start with the person. Buffett is not only brilliant, but he has also spent nearly his entire long lifetime obsessed with the stock market. Especially in his early years as an investor, his unparalleled success depended on an unbearable sacrifice: forgoing a normal social and family life. A later writer called the great 17th-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza “the god-intoxicated man.” Buffett is the stock-intoxicated man. Ever since 1942, when he bought his first stock at age 11, he has devoured information about companies, reading corporate reports the way most people listen to music. As a young investment manager, Buffett would wander through his house with his nose in a corporate annual report, practically bumping into the furniture, oblivious to the comings and goings of family and friends. While his kids played at an amusement park, he would sit on a bench and read financial statements. Buffett was there physically, but mentally and emotionally he was off in a world of his own, fixated on tax-loss carryforwards and amortization schedules.Warren Buffett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain and Business Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.Imagine being that obsessed. Imagine enjoying it.Now imagine enjoying it almost every waking moment ever since Harry Truman was in the White House. That’s how unusual Buffett is.Expertise is rooted in pattern recognition, and Buffett has seen every conceivable pattern. Given what I know about his work habits, I estimate—conservatively, I believe—that Buffett has read more than 100,000 financial statements in his more-than-seven-decade career. And his memory is almost supernatural. Years ago, winding up a phone interview with Buffett, I mentioned a book I was reading. He exclaimed that he had also read it—more than a half-century earlier. As he began describing a passage, I grabbed the book, found the page and realized to my astonishment that Buffett recalled almost every sentence verbatim.His unparalleled exposure to financial information, combined with his prodigious memory, made Buffett into a human form of artificial intelligence. He could answer almost any query out of his own internal database.That has given him an unparalleled ability to identify the kernel of significance in any new bit of information—and a durable advantage over other investors. Now that AI is universally available, a person with Buffett’s massive command of data won’t even have an advantage in the future.Guests at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 annual shareholder meeting included Harlem Globetrotter Chris ‘Handles’ Franklin and Detroit Lions’ Ndamukong Suh.Then there’s the period—the time over which Buffett has exercised his investing prowess. As he has said many times, he won “the ovarian lottery” by being born when and where he was.Had Buffett been born in Omaha in (say) 1880 instead of 1930, he would have had to invest in livestock instead of stocks. Had he been born in 1930 in Omsk instead of Omaha, he wouldn’t have owned railways; he probably would have worked on the Trans-Siberian Railway.And Buffett happened to come of age just in time to study under Benjamin Graham, the pioneer of security analysis and one of the greatest investors of the past century.Buffett also began his career before trillions of dollars had poured into the stock market from index funds and other giant institutional investors.He built his phenomenal early track record by fishing where no one else was even looking to catch anything. He fed on the tiniest plankton of the stock market.He bet big on these small fry. At various points, his investment partnerships had 21% of their total assets in Dempster Mill Manufacturing, a maker of agricultural equipment based in Beatrice, Neb., and 35% in Sanborn Map, a New York-based cartography company whose investment portfolio alone was worth more than its stock price. Sometimes it took him years to build a position in stocks that almost never traded.From 1957 through 1968, such obscure bets helped produce an average return of 25.3% annually, compared with 10.5% for the S&P 500.Buffett was able to outperform the market by stepping outside the market as most other professional investors then defined it. A study of the returns of stock mutual funds from 1945 through 1964 compared them to the Standard & Poor’s Composite and found that none performed significantly better than would be expected “from mere random chance.”Buffett, on the other hand, bought almost nothing that was part of a major market index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Standard & Poor’s Composite (as the S&P 500 was then known).And Buffett didn’t merely succeed. He succeeded over one of the longest career spans any investor has ever had. He took over Berkshire, a tattered manufacturer of textiles, in 1965. By the end of last year, Buffett had racked up an annualized average return of 19.9%, compared with 10.4% for the S&P 500.Almost anyone with a reasonable amount of luck can beat the market over a year. So far as I know, no one in history has beaten the market by so wide a margin over a period of six decades—because only Buffett has combined extraordinary investment skill with such extraordinary longevity.Warren Buffett speaking with Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger on screen in 2018.Finally, Buffett placed his investments in a package like none other.Berkshire Hathaway operates as a publicly traded holding company, a receptacle for whatever he has thought worth owning: other publicly traded stocks, Treasury bonds, private companies. At one point it was even one of the world’s largest holders of silver; now it holds more than $330 billion in cash. Berkshire isn’t a hedge fund, mutual fund, exchange-traded fund or any other conventional investment vehicle.By design, it charges no management fees that would subtract from its returns and no performance-incentive fees that would encourage excessive risk-taking in pursuit of a big payday.Most investment funds operate under a curse that economists call “procyclicality.” After a fund racks up a streak of good returns, investors throw money at the fund, forcing its managers to put the new cash to work in a market that is likely becoming overpriced. That hinders future performance.Then, when returns falter in a falling market, investors yank their money out, forcing the fund managers to sell just as bargains are becoming abundant. The fund’s own investors make its performance worse, intensifying the market’s ups and downs.Berkshire’s only cash flows, however, are internal. Money comes in from (or goes out to) the assets it owns. Cash can’t come pouring in from new investors, or get yanked out by fleeing investors, at the worst possible times—because you can invest in Berkshire only by buying shares from someone else in the secondary market.This package has given Buffett a structural advantage that has enabled him to pursue opportunities wherever and whenever he has perceived them. That’s a luxury almost no other professional investor has—or even wants.So long as most fund managers can earn a lavish living for underperforming the market, the real risk for them will be trying anything different. Pigs will sprout feathers before anybody has the daring to try truly emulating Warren Buffett.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":296403994022016,"gmtCreate":1713401870770,"gmtModify":1713401873413,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"E","listText":"E","text":"E","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/296403994022016","repostId":"1113088030","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159930017,"gmtCreate":1624934555239,"gmtModify":1703848311081,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth&nbsp;","listText":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth&nbsp;","text":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159930017","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167567324,"gmtCreate":1624278426968,"gmtModify":1703832218340,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","listText":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","text":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167567324","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575277705944076","authorId":"3575277705944076","name":"JustStonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a85f9246d3c1c5337dd21fec2ec401d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575277705944076","authorIdStr":"3575277705944076"},"content":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read.","text":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read.","html":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162768701,"gmtCreate":1624076128203,"gmtModify":1703828348001,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time for correction.&nbsp;","listText":"Time for correction.&nbsp;","text":"Time for correction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162768701","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166067023,"gmtCreate":1623985815462,"gmtModify":1703825692709,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","listText":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","text":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166067023","repostId":"2144260237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2144260237","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623982812,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144260237?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144260237","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Adds adviser's comment, background)   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at th","content":"<html><body><p>(Adds adviser's comment, background)</p><p>   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEV\">$(NEV)$</a> sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.</p><p>   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.</p><p>   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.  </p><p>   China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference.</p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 10:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>(Adds adviser's comment, background)</p><p>   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEV\">$(NEV)$</a> sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.</p><p>   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.</p><p>   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.  </p><p>   China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference.</p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144260237","content_text":"(Adds adviser's comment, background)   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle $(NEV)$ sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.     China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference. (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"01211":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166066476,"gmtCreate":1623985746195,"gmtModify":1703825688016,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done","listText":"Well done","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166066476","repostId":"2144294367","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":528291862574032,"gmtCreate":1769999552856,"gmtModify":1769999556451,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/528291862574032","repostId":"2608887657","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608887657","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1769998322,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2608887657?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-02 10:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608887657","media":"Reuters","summary":"UPDATE 2-Oracle says it plans to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity this year Adds background in paragraphs 6-8 Feb 1 (Reuters) - Oracle ORCL.N expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a> expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.</p><p>Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/928e3ac62448337720091ee1ed617f34\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.</p><p>&#34;Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others&#34;, the company said in a statement.</p><p>Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.</p><p>The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.</p><p>Investors have scrutinized Oracle&#39;s AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.</p><p>Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.</p><p>The cost of insuring Oracle&#39;s debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOracle Says It Plans to Raise up to $50 Billion in Debt and Equity This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-02 10:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a> expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.</p><p>Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/928e3ac62448337720091ee1ed617f34\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.</p><p>&#34;Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others&#34;, the company said in a statement.</p><p>Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.</p><p>The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.</p><p>Investors have scrutinized Oracle&#39;s AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.</p><p>Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.</p><p>The cost of insuring Oracle&#39;s debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five years.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU2272731782.SGD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU1992135399.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AT Acc USD","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20260201:nL1N3YX0AG:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608887657","content_text":"(Reuters) - Oracle expects to raise $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 to build additional capacity for its cloud infrastructure, the software company said on Sunday.Shares of Oracle fell 3.6% in overnight trading.The company, chaired by billionaire Larry Ellison, said it plans to achieve its funding objectives using a combination of debt and equity financing.\"Oracle is raising money in order to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from our largest Oracle Cloud Infrastructure customers, including AMD, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, TikTok, xAI and others\", the company said in a statement.Oracle plans to raise around half of the funding through a combination of equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and a new at-the-market equity program of up to $20 billion.The software group plans to raise the other half of its funding by issuing senior unsecured bonds early in 2026.Investors have scrutinized Oracle's AI infrastructure build-out in recent weeks as its debt climbs and its fortunes become increasingly tied to OpenAI, which is not profitable and has not detailed how it would finance its infrastructure plans.Oracle was sued earlier this month by bondholders who say they suffered losses because the company concealed its need to sell significant additional debt to build out its artificial intelligence infrastructure.The cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default surged in December last year to its highest in at least five years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167567324,"gmtCreate":1624278426968,"gmtModify":1703832218340,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","listText":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","text":"Good analysis, with support n resistance prices. Need more of this type of analysis for other stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167567324","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575277705944076","authorId":"3575277705944076","name":"JustStonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a85f9246d3c1c5337dd21fec2ec401d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575277705944076","authorIdStr":"3575277705944076"},"content":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read.","text":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read.","html":"Agree. Seekingalpha should have more of such analysis. Good read."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162768701,"gmtCreate":1624076128203,"gmtModify":1703828348001,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time for correction.&nbsp;","listText":"Time for correction.&nbsp;","text":"Time for correction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162768701","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166067023,"gmtCreate":1623985815462,"gmtModify":1703825692709,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","listText":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","text":"Leader in the EV world. Push for No 1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166067023","repostId":"2144260237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2144260237","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623982812,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144260237?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144260237","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Adds adviser's comment, background)   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at th","content":"<html><body><p>(Adds adviser's comment, background)</p><p>   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEV\">$(NEV)$</a> sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.</p><p>   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.</p><p>   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.  </p><p>   China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference.</p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUPDATE 1-China NEV sales to grow over 40% each year in next 5 years -industry body\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 10:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>(Adds adviser's comment, background)</p><p>   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEV\">$(NEV)$</a> sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.</p><p>   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.</p><p>   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.  </p><p>   China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference.</p><p> (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p><p>((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144260237","content_text":"(Adds adviser's comment, background)   SHANGHAI, June 18 (Reuters) - China's new energy vehicle $(NEV)$ sales are expected to grow more than 40% each year in the next five years, a senior official at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Friday.   Fu Bingfeng, executive vice chairman of CAAM, made the remarks at a conference held by the industry body in Shanghai.   Fu's presentation showed that CAAM forecasts sales of NEVs, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to hit 1.9 million units this year and 2.7 million vehicles in 2022.   NEV makers, such as Tesla Inc   , Nio Inc   , Xpeng Inc    and BYD   , are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.     China could extend tax exemptions on NEV purchases beyond 2022 to support development of the sector, Wan Gang, a high-ranking government industrial policy adviser who is often referred to in state media as China's \"father of EV\", said at the same CAAM conference. (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)((Y.Sun@thomsonreuters.com; +86 10 66271262; Reuters Messaging: y.sun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"01211":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":431315675136680,"gmtCreate":1746325180389,"gmtModify":1746325183597,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/431315675136680","repostId":"2532364987","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159930017,"gmtCreate":1624934555239,"gmtModify":1703848311081,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth&nbsp;","listText":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth&nbsp;","text":"Need to break into EU and US market. Otherwise only limited future growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159930017","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":449239542767616,"gmtCreate":1750682541705,"gmtModify":1750682544697,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$Dow Jones(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a> CD","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$Dow Jones(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a> CD","text":"$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ CD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449239542767616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":449198355968336,"gmtCreate":1750682482759,"gmtModify":1750682484801,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$Dow Jones(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a> /","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$Dow Jones(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a> /","text":"$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ /","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449198355968336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":296403994022016,"gmtCreate":1713401870770,"gmtModify":1713401873413,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"E","listText":"E","text":"E","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/296403994022016","repostId":"1113088030","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113088030","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TigerNews SG","id":"1050470178","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17a9a7b68c877792d5e556261e9e709"},"pubTimestamp":1713402711,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113088030?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-18 09:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SG Morning Call｜Singapore Stocks Opened Higher; DFI Puts its last 2 SG properties up for sale at S$48.5M","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113088030","media":"TigerNews SG","summary":"Stocks to WatchCity Developments Ltd (CDL): The property giant’s majority-held strata-titled building, Delfi Orchard, is up for collective sale at a S$438 million guide price. Citing marketing agent S","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2780928662\">Market Snapshot</h2><p>Singapore stocks opened higher on Thursday. CityDev fell 1%, DFI rose 1.1%, First Resources rose 1.5%,  SIA rose 0.2%, DBS rose 0.6%, UOB rose 0.8%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d90bfa78dcfcca1e25bc5f223445ba92\" tg-width=\"269\" tg-height=\"879\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2439355089\">Stocks to Watch</h2><p><strong>City Developments Ltd (CDL):</strong> The property giant’s majority-held strata-titled building, Delfi Orchard, is up for collective sale at a S$438 million guide price. Citing marketing agent Savills Singapore, The Business Times reported that this translates to about S$3,397 per square foot per plot ratio. CDL shares closed S$0.05 or 0.9 per cent higher at S$5.66 on Wednesday.</p><p><strong>DFI Retail Group:</strong> The group formerly known as Dairy Farm International has put its last two Singapore properties on the market. On Thursday, BT reported that the total guide price for these two assets is S$48.5 million, though potential buyers can make offers for one or both properties. Shares of DFI ended Wednesday US$0.02 or 1.1 per cent lower at US$1.81.</p><p><strong>Cordlife Group:</strong> The cord-blood bank on Wednesday said it filed a police report against some of its former employees for alleged “potential wrongdoings” based on preliminary findings of an internal investigation conducted by an external consultant. Shares of Cordlife closed S$0.002 or 1.4 per cent higher at S$0.15, prior to the announcement.</p><p><strong>First Resources:</strong> The palm oil producer has denied allegations that it is linked to a network of companies accused of clearing rainforests in Indonesia. First Resources has also appointed a sustainability consulting firm to investigate the allegations and “develop an action plan”. Shares of First Resources closed S$0.02 or 1.4 per cent lower at S$1.37 on Wednesday, prior to the filing.</p><h2 id=\"id_1127675388\">SG Local News</h2><p><strong>DBS, OCBC to see net profits dip, loan growth soften in Q1</strong></p><p>Two of the largest banks in Singapore are expected to report a year-on-year (yoy) drop in net profits for the first quarter, although their asset quality will remain resilient according to UOB Kay Hian.</p><p>In a note, UOB Kay Hian projected DBS Group Holdings to see its first-quarter net income decline by 3% yoy to $2.5b, which will still represent a 10% rebound when compared to its net profit in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><strong>MAS allocates $35M for sustainable finance upskilling</strong></p><p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has allocated $35m to upskill Singapore&#39;s financial services sector, focusing on sustainable finance. <br/><br/>Amongst the initiatives to support upskilling are the expansion of sustainable finance courses and the introduction of an Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) Skills Badge.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SG Morning Call｜Singapore Stocks Opened Higher; DFI Puts its last 2 SG properties up for sale at S$48.5M</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSG Morning Call｜Singapore Stocks Opened Higher; DFI Puts its last 2 SG properties up for sale at S$48.5M\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1050470178\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17a9a7b68c877792d5e556261e9e709);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TigerNews SG </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-18 09:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2780928662\">Market Snapshot</h2><p>Singapore stocks opened higher on Thursday. CityDev fell 1%, DFI rose 1.1%, First Resources rose 1.5%,  SIA rose 0.2%, DBS rose 0.6%, UOB rose 0.8%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d90bfa78dcfcca1e25bc5f223445ba92\" tg-width=\"269\" tg-height=\"879\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2439355089\">Stocks to Watch</h2><p><strong>City Developments Ltd (CDL):</strong> The property giant’s majority-held strata-titled building, Delfi Orchard, is up for collective sale at a S$438 million guide price. Citing marketing agent Savills Singapore, The Business Times reported that this translates to about S$3,397 per square foot per plot ratio. CDL shares closed S$0.05 or 0.9 per cent higher at S$5.66 on Wednesday.</p><p><strong>DFI Retail Group:</strong> The group formerly known as Dairy Farm International has put its last two Singapore properties on the market. On Thursday, BT reported that the total guide price for these two assets is S$48.5 million, though potential buyers can make offers for one or both properties. Shares of DFI ended Wednesday US$0.02 or 1.1 per cent lower at US$1.81.</p><p><strong>Cordlife Group:</strong> The cord-blood bank on Wednesday said it filed a police report against some of its former employees for alleged “potential wrongdoings” based on preliminary findings of an internal investigation conducted by an external consultant. Shares of Cordlife closed S$0.002 or 1.4 per cent higher at S$0.15, prior to the announcement.</p><p><strong>First Resources:</strong> The palm oil producer has denied allegations that it is linked to a network of companies accused of clearing rainforests in Indonesia. First Resources has also appointed a sustainability consulting firm to investigate the allegations and “develop an action plan”. Shares of First Resources closed S$0.02 or 1.4 per cent lower at S$1.37 on Wednesday, prior to the filing.</p><h2 id=\"id_1127675388\">SG Local News</h2><p><strong>DBS, OCBC to see net profits dip, loan growth soften in Q1</strong></p><p>Two of the largest banks in Singapore are expected to report a year-on-year (yoy) drop in net profits for the first quarter, although their asset quality will remain resilient according to UOB Kay Hian.</p><p>In a note, UOB Kay Hian projected DBS Group Holdings to see its first-quarter net income decline by 3% yoy to $2.5b, which will still represent a 10% rebound when compared to its net profit in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><strong>MAS allocates $35M for sustainable finance upskilling</strong></p><p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has allocated $35m to upskill Singapore&#39;s financial services sector, focusing on sustainable finance. <br/><br/>Amongst the initiatives to support upskilling are the expansion of sustainable finance courses and the introduction of an Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) Skills Badge.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"D01.SI":"牛奶国际控股有限公司","D05.SI":"星展集团控股","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","O39.SI":"华侨银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113088030","content_text":"Market SnapshotSingapore stocks opened higher on Thursday. CityDev fell 1%, DFI rose 1.1%, First Resources rose 1.5%,  SIA rose 0.2%, DBS rose 0.6%, UOB rose 0.8%.Stocks to WatchCity Developments Ltd (CDL): The property giant’s majority-held strata-titled building, Delfi Orchard, is up for collective sale at a S$438 million guide price. Citing marketing agent Savills Singapore, The Business Times reported that this translates to about S$3,397 per square foot per plot ratio. CDL shares closed S$0.05 or 0.9 per cent higher at S$5.66 on Wednesday.DFI Retail Group: The group formerly known as Dairy Farm International has put its last two Singapore properties on the market. On Thursday, BT reported that the total guide price for these two assets is S$48.5 million, though potential buyers can make offers for one or both properties. Shares of DFI ended Wednesday US$0.02 or 1.1 per cent lower at US$1.81.Cordlife Group: The cord-blood bank on Wednesday said it filed a police report against some of its former employees for alleged “potential wrongdoings” based on preliminary findings of an internal investigation conducted by an external consultant. Shares of Cordlife closed S$0.002 or 1.4 per cent higher at S$0.15, prior to the announcement.First Resources: The palm oil producer has denied allegations that it is linked to a network of companies accused of clearing rainforests in Indonesia. First Resources has also appointed a sustainability consulting firm to investigate the allegations and “develop an action plan”. Shares of First Resources closed S$0.02 or 1.4 per cent lower at S$1.37 on Wednesday, prior to the filing.SG Local NewsDBS, OCBC to see net profits dip, loan growth soften in Q1Two of the largest banks in Singapore are expected to report a year-on-year (yoy) drop in net profits for the first quarter, although their asset quality will remain resilient according to UOB Kay Hian.In a note, UOB Kay Hian projected DBS Group Holdings to see its first-quarter net income decline by 3% yoy to $2.5b, which will still represent a 10% rebound when compared to its net profit in the fourth quarter of 2023.MAS allocates $35M for sustainable finance upskillingThe Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has allocated $35m to upskill Singapore's financial services sector, focusing on sustainable finance. Amongst the initiatives to support upskilling are the expansion of sustainable finance courses and the introduction of an Institute of Banking and Finance (IBF) Skills Badge.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"D05.SI":1.1,"O39.SI":1.1,"D01.SI":1.1,"STI.SI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166066476,"gmtCreate":1623985746195,"gmtModify":1703825688016,"author":{"id":"3583197913653262","authorId":"3583197913653262","name":"JHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583197913653262","authorIdStr":"3583197913653262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done","listText":"Well done","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166066476","repostId":"2144294367","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}