mightypaul1 personal page - To The Moon

mightypaul1

mightypaul1

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10-11

$Plug Power(PLUG)$

2021-08-06

Come on QTT

2021-08-05

Come on let’s break past 2 USD

2021-08-02

Will this rise?

2021-07-23

What happened? Dropping

2021-07-22

Updates for everyone

2021-07-20

Technology

2021-07-19

Cancer research

2021-07-17

Looks like the crash is here

Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash

2021-07-16

Electric vechicles friendly to planet earth

2021-07-15

Solar energy

2021-07-14

The future

2021-07-13

Good prospect

2021-07-08

Good business

2021-07-06

Hello

2021-07-05

What about this?

2021-07-02

Bullish?

2021-07-02

Any chance?

2021-06-28

Merger soon

2021-06-08

Zepp hoping to buy in at my limit price

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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rise?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0a6040254e85c44e2e15f3948d170e","width":"1125","height":"2482"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805915794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172716831,"gmtCreate":1626994056123,"gmtModify":1703481880144,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened? Dropping&nbsp;","listText":"What happened? Dropping&nbsp;","text":"What happened? Dropping","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da97eae1725e80be424c6ab9a3a7beb","width":"1125","height":"2360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172716831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176287780,"gmtCreate":1626888936040,"gmtModify":1703480053498,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Updates for everyone&nbsp;","listText":"Updates for everyone&nbsp;","text":"Updates for everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176287780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171111398,"gmtCreate":1626712212114,"gmtModify":1703763899273,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Technology&nbsp;","listText":"Technology&nbsp;","text":"Technology","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c88cfc7dd3d481498a234c96ea3afb2","width":"1125","height":"2428"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171111398","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173191924,"gmtCreate":1626627914968,"gmtModify":1703762453528,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cancer research&nbsp;","listText":"Cancer research&nbsp;","text":"Cancer research","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da3d9037e3a89671d61f645618c16e23","width":"1125","height":"2279"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173191924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179012679,"gmtCreate":1626473083491,"gmtModify":1703760664413,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like the crash is here&nbsp;","listText":"Looks like the crash is here&nbsp;","text":"Looks like the crash is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179012679","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147744232,"gmtCreate":1626393387726,"gmtModify":1703759163645,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Electric vechicles friendly to planet earth&nbsp;","listText":"Electric vechicles friendly to planet earth&nbsp;","text":"Electric vechicles friendly to planet 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future","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee9670feb96eb1016a70338150576a9","width":"1125","height":"1909"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144608804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142744542,"gmtCreate":1626180354986,"gmtModify":1703754904050,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good prospect&nbsp;","listText":"Good prospect&nbsp;","text":"Good prospect","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90abcc84cad7b5323d4977762eee4d0","width":"1125","height":"2523"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142744542","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149390298,"gmtCreate":1625703957814,"gmtModify":1703746642142,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good business&nbsp;","listText":"Good business&nbsp;","text":"Good business","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deddf19b76bc4a7403e82ca5a61cf0aa","width":"1125","height":"1909"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149390298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157116794,"gmtCreate":1625572278318,"gmtModify":1703743991318,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21efe8f1a258ff2ffc9b1bc39254d96","width":"1125","height":"2442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157116794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154826639,"gmtCreate":1625500006921,"gmtModify":1703742760171,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What about this?&nbsp;","listText":"What about this?&nbsp;","text":"What about this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe93f1262489ba5db1ae4323d8f9145","width":"1125","height":"2279"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154826639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156523639,"gmtCreate":1625231450921,"gmtModify":1703738925916,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish?&nbsp;","listText":"Bullish?&nbsp;","text":"Bullish?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da52e299ef2d591de01b9af7bf175687","width":"1125","height":"2360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156523639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158419785,"gmtCreate":1625170703147,"gmtModify":1703737551839,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any chance?&nbsp;","listText":"Any chance?&nbsp;","text":"Any chance?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec9cb051e6f71f45079009f33fa2fbe","width":"1125","height":"2265"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158419785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127984574,"gmtCreate":1624816399098,"gmtModify":1703845496040,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Merger soon","listText":"Merger soon","text":"Merger soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8a07042e747d998172c183929d7319","width":"1125","height":"2279"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127984574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117044509,"gmtCreate":1623111672201,"gmtModify":1704196193299,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583346872067671","idStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zepp hoping to buy in at my limit price&nbsp;","listText":"Zepp hoping to buy in at my limit price&nbsp;","text":"Zepp hoping to buy in at my limit price","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64369c74fbf8600f150ae1f329047e2","width":"1125","height":"2360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117044509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179012679,"gmtCreate":1626473083491,"gmtModify":1703760664413,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like the crash is here&nbsp;","listText":"Looks like the crash is here&nbsp;","text":"Looks like the crash is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179012679","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136832639,"gmtCreate":1622004400121,"gmtModify":1704365912679,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Debts is what grows the economy, but what happens when debt is too much?&nbsp;","listText":"Debts is what grows the economy, but what happens when debt is too much?&nbsp;","text":"Debts is what grows the economy, but what happens when debt is too much?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136832639","repostId":"1147329617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147329617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622000803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147329617?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street is facing a $9 trillion problem","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147329617","media":"cnn","summary":"London (CNN Business)Central banks were the superheroes of the early phase of the pandemic, taking d","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)Central banks were the superheroes of the early phase of the pandemic, taking dramatic steps to save the economy and financial markets from ruin.</p>\n<p>Now, as the recovery kicks into gear, they've become a major risk for investors.</p>\n<p>What's happening: The latest reading of the Back-to-Normal Index from CNN Business shows that the US economy's comeback is 90% complete. But investors are increasingly worried that the Federal Reserve, observing such promising data and rising inflation, will make a damaging mistake, such as moving too soon to roll back unprecedented levels of support — or ignoring growing problems until they're too late.</p>\n<p>In a Deutsche Bank survey of 620 market professionals published this week, 39% of respondents listed a \"central bank policy error\" as one of the top three risks to market stability, up from 21% the previous month.</p>\n<p>Similar fears are reflected in the survey of global fund managers posted by Bank of America last week. The number two risk, behind inflation, is a \"taper tantrum,\" referring to a scenario where central banks ease up on bond purchases, increasing yields and sparking a panic in markets.</p>\n<p>Big picture: Investors have become hooked on easy money from central banks like the Fed, whose decision to slash interest rates to rock bottom and buy up hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds fed the market's rapid rebound after the initial coronavirus shock.</p>\n<p>But such policies have also handed central banks huge power to dictate market outcomes, making it harder for them to pivot down the line.</p>\n<p>See here: The Fed's balance sheet increased to $7.4 trillion last year, the highest level on record, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By 2023, it could grow to $9 trillion, it projects. That's almost as much as the combined annual GDP of Japan and Germany — and means policymakers can't afford to make a mistake.</p>\n<p>After a long holding pattern, central banks are \"waking up\" to the risk of a \"consequential financial accident,\" Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy, wrote Tuesday in an op-ed for the Financial Times. But they're in a difficult position, he added.</p>\n<p>For now, the Fed continues to hold firm its stance that it's monitoring risks but does not intend to take near-term action, even as prices rise.</p>\n<p>\"There are reasons why we should be seeing higher price levels today,\" Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday. \"The question is how enduring is it going to be. Right now, I am not seeing it is going to be enduring.\"</p>\n<p>The European Central Bank is sounding slightly more cautious. Last week, it warned that while \"the economy is still reliant upon policy support to prevent widespread unemployment, corporate insolvencies and economic contraction,\" financial markets have \"exhibited remarkable exuberance.\"</p>\n<p>El-Erian thinks that investors \"should be encouraging the Fed to pivot rather than just focus on the continued joy of surfing the liquidity wave.\" But breaking an addiction is easier said than done, even as the potential for negative complications add up.</p>\n<p><b>Apple and Epic Games await a blockbuster verdict</b></p>\n<p>A weeks-long antitrust trial between Apple (AAPL) and Epic Games culminated with the maker of the hit video game Fortnite calling Apple an \"overlord\" and the iPhone maker suggesting Epic is paving the way for a \"scary\" future for iOS customers.</p>\n<p>After spending days presenting reams of dueling economic analysis and documentary evidence, the two sides landed on Monday where they began: arguing over how Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers should interpret Apple's role in a sprawling digital economy, my CNN Business colleagues Brian Fung and Rishi Iyengar report.</p>\n<p>Remember: The outcome of that analysis could reshape how digital app stores work or uphold Apple's prime position in its app ecosystem.</p>\n<p>What comes next: Gonzalez Rogers is set to decide whether Apple is an agile innovator that reaped just rewards for building a popular app business, or if it is, as Epic alleges, a monopolist that uses its control over the iOS App Store to illegally harm competition, restrict innovation and keep prices high.</p>\n<p>The judge said Monday she aims to issue an opinion by mid-August, though it could take longer given the thousands of pages generated by the case.</p>\n<p>Reading the tea leaves: Gonzalez Rogers offered critical questions to both sides. She challenged Apple on the fees it charges developers, and at times implied she was open to finding that Apple had broken the law. But she also pushed hard against Epic on Monday, suggesting that what the company was asking her to do was to \"change the business model\" of Apple.</p>\n<p>Investor insight: Nick Rodelli, head of Legal Edge Research at CFRA, told clients that he thinks Epic \"has a slight edge in winning the Apple litigation.\" That could deal a major blow to Apple's stock, given that App Store practices contribute a significant share of its pre-tax income.</p>\n<p><b>Congress is skeptical of the SPAC boom</b></p>\n<p>Are everyday investors getting duped by SPACs, one of Wall Street's hottest trends over the past year?</p>\n<p>That's the growing concern in Washington. On Monday, lawmakers held a hearing to scrutinize whether more protections are needed now that billions of dollars have been allocated to special-purpose acquisition companies, which raise funding and then hunt for promising companies to take public. Startups including space venture Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and electric vehicle companies Lordstown Motors and Arrival have opted to merge with SPACs instead of pursuing traditional initial public offerings.</p>\n<p>Reading the mood: \"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said in her opening statement.</p>\n<p>One fear: SPACs have more leeway to make ambitious projections for future growth — and retail investors are \"buying into this kind of hype,\" testified Andrew Park, senior policy analyst at Americans for Financial Reform.</p>\n<p>\"Whereas in an IPO, issuers and underwriters are liable for making false and misleading forward looking statements, SPACs are not subject to that same standard,\" Park said. \"That has emboldened many pre-revenue companies in highly speculative industries such as electric vehicles, cryptocurrency, and space exploration to make what might generously be called very rosy projections.\"</p>\n<p>That could change. The House is looking at legislation that would alter how such rules apply to SPACs. The Securities and Exchange Commission could do the same. Does this spell the beginning of the end of the SPAC boom?</p>\n<p><b>Up next</b></p>\n<p>AutoZone (AZO) reports results before US markets open. Nordstrom (JWN) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) follow after the close.</p>\n<p>Also today: New US home sales for April and consumer confidence data for May post at 10 a.m. ET.</p>\n<p>Coming tomorrow: Earnings from Abercrombie &amp; Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), American Eagle (AEO), Nvidia (NVDA) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street is facing a $9 trillion problem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street is facing a $9 trillion problem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 11:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>London (CNN Business)Central banks were the superheroes of the early phase of the pandemic, taking dramatic steps to save the economy and financial markets from ruin.\nNow, as the recovery kicks into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147329617","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Central banks were the superheroes of the early phase of the pandemic, taking dramatic steps to save the economy and financial markets from ruin.\nNow, as the recovery kicks into gear, they've become a major risk for investors.\nWhat's happening: The latest reading of the Back-to-Normal Index from CNN Business shows that the US economy's comeback is 90% complete. But investors are increasingly worried that the Federal Reserve, observing such promising data and rising inflation, will make a damaging mistake, such as moving too soon to roll back unprecedented levels of support — or ignoring growing problems until they're too late.\nIn a Deutsche Bank survey of 620 market professionals published this week, 39% of respondents listed a \"central bank policy error\" as one of the top three risks to market stability, up from 21% the previous month.\nSimilar fears are reflected in the survey of global fund managers posted by Bank of America last week. The number two risk, behind inflation, is a \"taper tantrum,\" referring to a scenario where central banks ease up on bond purchases, increasing yields and sparking a panic in markets.\nBig picture: Investors have become hooked on easy money from central banks like the Fed, whose decision to slash interest rates to rock bottom and buy up hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds fed the market's rapid rebound after the initial coronavirus shock.\nBut such policies have also handed central banks huge power to dictate market outcomes, making it harder for them to pivot down the line.\nSee here: The Fed's balance sheet increased to $7.4 trillion last year, the highest level on record, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By 2023, it could grow to $9 trillion, it projects. That's almost as much as the combined annual GDP of Japan and Germany — and means policymakers can't afford to make a mistake.\nAfter a long holding pattern, central banks are \"waking up\" to the risk of a \"consequential financial accident,\" Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy, wrote Tuesday in an op-ed for the Financial Times. But they're in a difficult position, he added.\nFor now, the Fed continues to hold firm its stance that it's monitoring risks but does not intend to take near-term action, even as prices rise.\n\"There are reasons why we should be seeing higher price levels today,\" Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday. \"The question is how enduring is it going to be. Right now, I am not seeing it is going to be enduring.\"\nThe European Central Bank is sounding slightly more cautious. Last week, it warned that while \"the economy is still reliant upon policy support to prevent widespread unemployment, corporate insolvencies and economic contraction,\" financial markets have \"exhibited remarkable exuberance.\"\nEl-Erian thinks that investors \"should be encouraging the Fed to pivot rather than just focus on the continued joy of surfing the liquidity wave.\" But breaking an addiction is easier said than done, even as the potential for negative complications add up.\nApple and Epic Games await a blockbuster verdict\nA weeks-long antitrust trial between Apple (AAPL) and Epic Games culminated with the maker of the hit video game Fortnite calling Apple an \"overlord\" and the iPhone maker suggesting Epic is paving the way for a \"scary\" future for iOS customers.\nAfter spending days presenting reams of dueling economic analysis and documentary evidence, the two sides landed on Monday where they began: arguing over how Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers should interpret Apple's role in a sprawling digital economy, my CNN Business colleagues Brian Fung and Rishi Iyengar report.\nRemember: The outcome of that analysis could reshape how digital app stores work or uphold Apple's prime position in its app ecosystem.\nWhat comes next: Gonzalez Rogers is set to decide whether Apple is an agile innovator that reaped just rewards for building a popular app business, or if it is, as Epic alleges, a monopolist that uses its control over the iOS App Store to illegally harm competition, restrict innovation and keep prices high.\nThe judge said Monday she aims to issue an opinion by mid-August, though it could take longer given the thousands of pages generated by the case.\nReading the tea leaves: Gonzalez Rogers offered critical questions to both sides. She challenged Apple on the fees it charges developers, and at times implied she was open to finding that Apple had broken the law. But she also pushed hard against Epic on Monday, suggesting that what the company was asking her to do was to \"change the business model\" of Apple.\nInvestor insight: Nick Rodelli, head of Legal Edge Research at CFRA, told clients that he thinks Epic \"has a slight edge in winning the Apple litigation.\" That could deal a major blow to Apple's stock, given that App Store practices contribute a significant share of its pre-tax income.\nCongress is skeptical of the SPAC boom\nAre everyday investors getting duped by SPACs, one of Wall Street's hottest trends over the past year?\nThat's the growing concern in Washington. On Monday, lawmakers held a hearing to scrutinize whether more protections are needed now that billions of dollars have been allocated to special-purpose acquisition companies, which raise funding and then hunt for promising companies to take public. Startups including space venture Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and electric vehicle companies Lordstown Motors and Arrival have opted to merge with SPACs instead of pursuing traditional initial public offerings.\nReading the mood: \"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said in her opening statement.\nOne fear: SPACs have more leeway to make ambitious projections for future growth — and retail investors are \"buying into this kind of hype,\" testified Andrew Park, senior policy analyst at Americans for Financial Reform.\n\"Whereas in an IPO, issuers and underwriters are liable for making false and misleading forward looking statements, SPACs are not subject to that same standard,\" Park said. \"That has emboldened many pre-revenue companies in highly speculative industries such as electric vehicles, cryptocurrency, and space exploration to make what might generously be called very rosy projections.\"\nThat could change. The House is looking at legislation that would alter how such rules apply to SPACs. The Securities and Exchange Commission could do the same. Does this spell the beginning of the end of the SPAC boom?\nUp next\nAutoZone (AZO) reports results before US markets open. Nordstrom (JWN) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) follow after the close.\nAlso today: New US home sales for April and consumer confidence data for May post at 10 a.m. ET.\nComing tomorrow: Earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), American Eagle (AEO), Nvidia (NVDA) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114254001,"gmtCreate":1623076829603,"gmtModify":1704195629918,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TAL have been bearish rapidly.&nbsp;","listText":"TAL have been bearish rapidly.&nbsp;","text":"TAL have been bearish rapidly.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114254001","repostId":"1137073803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114252791,"gmtCreate":1623076780913,"gmtModify":1704195628111,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So powerful Reddit influence&nbsp;","listText":"So powerful Reddit influence&nbsp;","text":"So powerful Reddit influence","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114252791","repostId":"1158917999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158917999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623075291,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158917999?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 22:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC stock jumps more than 20% as Reddit-fueled rally stretches to another week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158917999","media":"cnbc","summary":"AMC Entertainment, the meme stock that amazed Wall Street recently, rallied double digits on Monday ","content":"<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment, the meme stock that amazed Wall Street recently, rallied double digits on Monday as speculative trading activity in the struggling movie theater gained steam.\nShares of AMC jumped ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/-amc-stock-jumps-16percent-as-reddit-fueled-rally-stretches-to-another-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC stock jumps more than 20% as Reddit-fueled rally stretches to another week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC stock jumps more than 20% as Reddit-fueled rally stretches to another week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 22:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/-amc-stock-jumps-16percent-as-reddit-fueled-rally-stretches-to-another-week.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment, the meme stock that amazed Wall Street recently, rallied double digits on Monday as speculative trading activity in the struggling movie theater gained steam.\nShares of AMC jumped ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/-amc-stock-jumps-16percent-as-reddit-fueled-rally-stretches-to-another-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/-amc-stock-jumps-16percent-as-reddit-fueled-rally-stretches-to-another-week.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1158917999","content_text":"AMC Entertainment, the meme stock that amazed Wall Street recently, rallied double digits on Monday as speculative trading activity in the struggling movie theater gained steam.\nShares of AMC jumped 23% to around $57.71 apiece in morning trading on Monday, following an 80% rally in the prior week. The stock has dethroned GameStop to become the star on the infamous WallStreetBets forum on Reddit, with retail traders encouraging each other to pile into the shares and call options.\nA call option is an instrument that gives an investor the right to buy a stock at a stated price within a particular time frame.\nAMC has gained more than 120% in June alone after a 160% advance in May, pushing its 2021 rally to over 2,600%. The stock has far surpassed its January high amid the GameStop trading mania, hitting an intraday record of $72.62 last week.\nOther meme stocks also traded higher on Monday as momentum built.Bed Bath & Beyondadvanced 7% on Monday, whileBlackBerrypopped more than 8%.GameStopgained nearly 6%.\nAmid the wild trading, TD Ameritrade put in place increased margin requirements to 100% on AMC and GameStop. The brokerage firm said it may also implement additional requirements on opening trades on AMC options that expire on Friday.\n\"#NakedShorts\" and \"#NakedShorting\" were trending on Twitter on Monday as well as over the weekend, referring to the elevated short interest in AMC. Naked shorting is the illegal practice short selling where a stock's short interest may be larger than the tradable shares in the market sometimes due to discrepancies between paper and electronic trading systems.\nAMC has around 18% of its float shares sold short, versus about 5% for an average U.S. stock, according to data from S3 Partners. Short sellers betting against AMC have suffered $2 billion in losses last week, S3 data showed.\n\"It is extremely tempting to short these stocks, but unless you have huge liquid resources, please try to resist the temptation because these prices can go to unimaginable highs before they settle down to a reasonable valuation, and you may have to cover on the high point,\" Interactive Brokers chairman Thomas Peterffy said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Monday.\n\"On the long term, stocks always approach their fundamental values, which in this case is much, much lower,\" Peterffy added.\nAMC took advantage of the massive rally last week, selling 20 million shares in two separate deals and generating around $800 million in cash. CEO Adam Aron signaledhe wanted to sell up to 25 million more shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110724279,"gmtCreate":1622505540491,"gmtModify":1704185156687,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Bullish&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Bullish&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Bullish","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22e3d3fda642483e0f21d107c812107","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110724279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135936016,"gmtCreate":1622125343135,"gmtModify":1704179962774,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"General Motors start production of semiconductors?&nbsp;","listText":"General Motors start production of semiconductors?&nbsp;","text":"General Motors start production of semiconductors?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135936016","repostId":"1173883407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173883407","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622122899,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173883407?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 21:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"General Motors shares rose more than 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173883407","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"General Motors shares rose more than 3%.\nGeneral Motors Co said Thursday it will be soon be restarti","content":"<p>General Motors&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cad8117ea40be9a0fcfb3b52daf135\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"565\">General Motors Co said Thursday it will be soon be restarting production at five assembly plants around the world that have been idled due to a global semiconductor chips shortage.</p>\n<p>GM said it is restarting operations at four plants in the United States, Mexico and Canada starting next week. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> plants in Mexico will resume production next week that build the Chevrolet Equinox, GMC Terrain and Chevrolet Blazer.</p>\n<p>Next week GM will also resume full production at its Bupyeong 1 Assembly in Korea, which had been operating at 50% capacity since April 26 and return another Korean assembly plant to two shifts.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>General Motors shares rose more than 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGeneral Motors shares rose more than 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-27 21:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>General Motors&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cad8117ea40be9a0fcfb3b52daf135\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"565\">General Motors Co said Thursday it will be soon be restarting production at five assembly plants around the world that have been idled due to a global semiconductor chips shortage.</p>\n<p>GM said it is restarting operations at four plants in the United States, Mexico and Canada starting next week. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> plants in Mexico will resume production next week that build the Chevrolet Equinox, GMC Terrain and Chevrolet Blazer.</p>\n<p>Next week GM will also resume full production at its Bupyeong 1 Assembly in Korea, which had been operating at 50% capacity since April 26 and return another Korean assembly plant to two shifts.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173883407","content_text":"General Motors shares rose more than 3%.\nGeneral Motors Co said Thursday it will be soon be restarting production at five assembly plants around the world that have been idled due to a global semiconductor chips shortage.\nGM said it is restarting operations at four plants in the United States, Mexico and Canada starting next week. Two plants in Mexico will resume production next week that build the Chevrolet Equinox, GMC Terrain and Chevrolet Blazer.\nNext week GM will also resume full production at its Bupyeong 1 Assembly in Korea, which had been operating at 50% capacity since April 26 and return another Korean assembly plant to two shifts.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893293916,"gmtCreate":1628262602235,"gmtModify":1703504267369,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on QTT","listText":"Come on QTT","text":"Come on QTT","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9702d20dc64502a2dd2642dbdfb1d927","width":"1125","height":"2469"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893293916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135874708,"gmtCreate":1622159708604,"gmtModify":1704180462454,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The stock market and selling options&nbsp;makes his riches.&nbsp;","listText":"The stock market and selling options&nbsp;makes his riches.&nbsp;","text":"The stock market and selling options makes his riches.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135874708","repostId":"2138517320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138517320","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1622129220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138517320?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin, GameStop and NIO bets turned this flight attendant into a millionaire: Now he's wagering it all in one final push to $3 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138517320","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Don't invest like Andrew Dawood -- you may never be as lucky.The Egyptian-born resident of Dubai tur","content":"<p>Don't invest like Andrew Dawood -- you may never be as lucky.</p><p>The Egyptian-born resident of Dubai turned roughly $50,000 in savings into $1.7 million on a series of white-knuckle bets on bitcoin , Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, and videogame-retailer GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a> over a four-year period, he told MarketWatch in an interview.</p><p>He can technically call himself a millionaire; but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.</p><p>In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.</p><p>Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.</p><p>MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.</p><p>\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.</p><p>Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.</p><p>\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.</p><p>It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.</p><p>Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.</p><p>The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.</p><p>He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.</p><p>\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.</p><p>For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.</p><p>However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.</p><p>In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00999\">I.T</a>), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a>  in a deal announced earlier this year.</p><p>Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.</p><p>Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME.AU\">$(GME.AU)$</a>, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.</p><p>\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.</p><p>Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.</p><p>Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.</p><p>National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"</p><p>\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.</p><p>A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.</p><p>Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.</p><p>See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock market</p><p>Dawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.</p><p>There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.</p><p>His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.</p><p>But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.</p><p>Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.</p><p>Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.</p><p>So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?</p><p>He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.</p><p>Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.</p><p>By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.</p><p>Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubble</p><p>If his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.</p><p>Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.</p><p>His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:</p><p>He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.</p><p>\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.</p><p>\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.</p><p>Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> was too expensive for me,\" he said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin, GameStop and NIO bets turned this flight attendant into a millionaire: Now he's wagering it all in one final push to $3 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin, GameStop and NIO bets turned this flight attendant into a millionaire: Now he's wagering it all in one final push to $3 million\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-27 23:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don't invest like Andrew Dawood -- you may never be as lucky.</p><p>The Egyptian-born resident of Dubai turned roughly $50,000 in savings into $1.7 million on a series of white-knuckle bets on bitcoin , Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, and videogame-retailer GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a> over a four-year period, he told MarketWatch in an interview.</p><p>He can technically call himself a millionaire; but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.</p><p>In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.</p><p>Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.</p><p>MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.</p><p>\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.</p><p>Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.</p><p>\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.</p><p>It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.</p><p>Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.</p><p>The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.</p><p>He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.</p><p>\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.</p><p>For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.</p><p>However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.</p><p>In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00999\">I.T</a>), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a>  in a deal announced earlier this year.</p><p>Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.</p><p>Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME.AU\">$(GME.AU)$</a>, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.</p><p>\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.</p><p>Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.</p><p>Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.</p><p>National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"</p><p>\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.</p><p>A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.</p><p>Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.</p><p>See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock market</p><p>Dawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.</p><p>There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.</p><p>His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.</p><p>But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.</p><p>Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.</p><p>Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.</p><p>So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?</p><p>He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.</p><p>Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.</p><p>By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.</p><p>Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubble</p><p>If his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.</p><p>Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.</p><p>His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:</p><p>He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.</p><p>\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.</p><p>\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.</p><p>Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> was too expensive for me,\" he said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OGI":"ORGANIGRAM HOLD","NIO":"蔚来","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138517320","content_text":"Don't invest like Andrew Dawood -- you may never be as lucky.The Egyptian-born resident of Dubai turned roughly $50,000 in savings into $1.7 million on a series of white-knuckle bets on bitcoin , Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO $(NIO)$, and videogame-retailer GameStop Corp. $(GME)$ over a four-year period, he told MarketWatch in an interview.He can technically call himself a millionaire; but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for one of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OGI.T), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival Tilray Inc.  in a deal announced earlier this year.Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. $(GME.AU)$, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock marketDawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubbleIf his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$ was too expensive for me,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132038854,"gmtCreate":1622043830878,"gmtModify":1704178475371,"author":{"id":"3583346872067671","authorId":"3583346872067671","name":"mightypaul1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e9b83ea26ca81c4e5e9c879c7ab59f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583346872067671","authorIdStr":"3583346872067671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market in general are bullish.&nbsp;","listText":"Market in general are bullish.&nbsp;","text":"Market in general are bullish.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132038854","repostId":"2138143105","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138143105","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622042700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138143105?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Shares of Takung Art Are Surging Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138143105","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors have long speculated the company may one day jump into the nonfungible token (NFT) space.","content":"<h2>What happened</h2><p>Just when it looked like the non-fungible token (NFT) craze might be slowing down, shares of <b>Takung Art</b>&nbsp;(NYSEMKT:TKAT) jumped more than 22%, as of 10:40 a.m. EDT, for no apparent reason other than investor speculation that the company may jump into the NFT space.</p><h2>So what</h2><p>Takung has been a part of a basket of stocks that investors seem to think may enter the NFT space. Takung is not currently in the NFT space yet, but many believe the company could be a prime suspect to get in because it runs an online platform that allows artists, art dealers, and investors to exchange and invest in artwork. This would seem like an ideal platform to begin offering digital art, a large NFT category.</p><p>NFTs are digital files such as art, videos, and audio stored on&nbsp;blockchain, which is the digital ledger technology that powers cryptocurrencies. Some NFTs have already sold for millions of dollars, pushing some companies to begin offering NFTs, and many to believe the asset class has huge potential, not unlike the earlier days of cryptocurrencies.</p><h2>Now what</h2><p>Although it is just speculation, it is possible that Takung eventually jumps into the NFT space, given the demand from investors. Another stock long rumored to be an NFT candidate, <b>Hall of Fame Resort &amp; Entertainment</b>, eventually did make the move, which led to shares skyrocketing.</p><p>Regardless, I still would not invest in Takung based on NFT speculation alone. NFTs are a new asset class and still very volatile. It is unclear how much worth, if any, NFTs will have in the future.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Shares of Takung Art Are Surging Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Shares of Takung Art Are Surging Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 23:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/why-shares-of-takung-art-are-surging-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happenedJust when it looked like the non-fungible token (NFT) craze might be slowing down, shares of Takung Art (NYSEMKT:TKAT) jumped more than 22%, as of 10:40 a.m. EDT, for no apparent reason ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/why-shares-of-takung-art-are-surging-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/why-shares-of-takung-art-are-surging-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138143105","content_text":"What happenedJust when it looked like the non-fungible token (NFT) craze might be slowing down, shares of Takung Art (NYSEMKT:TKAT) jumped more than 22%, as of 10:40 a.m. EDT, for no apparent reason other than investor speculation that the company may jump into the NFT space.So whatTakung has been a part of a basket of stocks that investors seem to think may enter the NFT space. Takung is not currently in the NFT space yet, but many believe the company could be a prime suspect to get in because it runs an online platform that allows artists, art dealers, and investors to exchange and invest in artwork. This would seem like an ideal platform to begin offering digital art, a large NFT category.NFTs are digital files such as art, videos, and audio stored on blockchain, which is the digital ledger technology that powers cryptocurrencies. Some NFTs have already sold for millions of dollars, pushing some companies to begin offering NFTs, and many to believe the asset class has huge potential, not unlike the earlier days of cryptocurrencies.Now whatAlthough it is just speculation, it is possible that Takung eventually jumps into the NFT space, given the demand from investors. Another stock long rumored to be an NFT candidate, Hall of Fame Resort & Entertainment, eventually did make the move, which led to shares skyrocketing.Regardless, I still would not invest in Takung based on NFT speculation alone. NFTs are a new asset class and still very volatile. 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