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2021-08-04

thanks

Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday

2021-08-04

thanks for sharing!

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2021-08-04

thanks for sharing!

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2021-07-30

ohno

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2021-07-19

great

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-07-19

nice

4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst

2021-07-17

nice

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2021-07-17

??

Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash

2021-07-16

nice

Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 22:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;4)&nbsp;Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday.&nbsp;Other China EdTech giants fell too.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0c5ec083f6ef2c342f613677b1a64b\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259f5783d1b221dc7e7da158c693a61e\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b240bf82bad2b24747aa42ae08c22dc\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119448743","content_text":"(Aug 4) Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday. Other China EdTech giants fell too.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890817292,"gmtCreate":1628091475216,"gmtModify":1703501152951,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing!&nbsp;","listText":"thanks for sharing!&nbsp;","text":"thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890817292","repostId":"1187165636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890817035,"gmtCreate":1628091419527,"gmtModify":1703501150647,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing!","listText":"thanks for sharing!","text":"thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890817035","repostId":"2156106357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808489395,"gmtCreate":1627605997017,"gmtModify":1703493168214,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ohno","listText":"ohno","text":"ohno","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808489395","repostId":"1117706351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171978323,"gmtCreate":1626704329462,"gmtModify":1703763703948,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171978323","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171973246,"gmtCreate":1626704237285,"gmtModify":1703763701826,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171973246","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179877332,"gmtCreate":1626509682326,"gmtModify":1703761322393,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179877332","repostId":"2152686879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179874917,"gmtCreate":1626509581339,"gmtModify":1703761321100,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179874917","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170131438,"gmtCreate":1626410768124,"gmtModify":1703759640459,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170131438","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151573133","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626379249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151573133?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151573133","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 15  - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.Amazon, Apple, Tesla and $Facebook$all fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.The S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.The S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than ","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BAC":"美国银行","AIG":"美国国际集团","AMZN":"亚马逊","C":"花旗","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","AAPL":"苹果","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","WFC":"富国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BX":"黑石","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","09086":"华夏纳指-U","NVDA":"英伟达","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","JNJ":"强生",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151573133","content_text":"U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low\nTech sector ends four-day winning streak\n\nJuly 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.\nAmazon, Apple, Tesla and Facebookall fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.\nThe S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.\nFresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.\n\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.\nMorgan Stanley dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.\nSecond-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo & Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase & Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.\nBlackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.\nJohnson & Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.\n(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":890817292,"gmtCreate":1628091475216,"gmtModify":1703501152951,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing!&nbsp;","listText":"thanks for sharing!&nbsp;","text":"thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890817292","repostId":"1187165636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171978323,"gmtCreate":1626704329462,"gmtModify":1703763703948,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171978323","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179877332,"gmtCreate":1626509682326,"gmtModify":1703761322393,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179877332","repostId":"2152686879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152686879","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626487020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152686879?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation Announces Receipt of Amendment to Unsolicited Acquisition Proposal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152686879","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"No Action Needs to be Taken by Monmouth Shareholders at This Time\nHOLMDEL, N.J., July 16, 2021 (GLOB","content":"<p><i>No Action Needs to be Taken by Monmouth Shareholders at This Time</i></p>\n<p><b>HOLMDEL, N.J., July 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNR\">Monmouth Real Estate Investment</a> Corporation (NYSE: MNR, “Monmouth” or “the Company”) today announced that it received an amendment to the unsolicited acquisition proposal it previously received on July 8, 2021 from a certain large private investment firm. The amendment to the proposal reflects an increase of $0.18 per share in the consideration that would be paid for each share of Monmouth Common Stock, resulting in a net cash consideration of $18.88 per share, reflecting a stated purchase price of $19.51 per share reduced by the termination fee of approximately $62.2 million, or $0.63 per share, if Monmouth terminates the merger agreement it previously entered into with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQCN\">Equity Commonwealth</a> (“EQC”) in accordance with its terms to accept the amended proposal. The increase results from the investment firm’s decision that the purchase price would no longer be reduced by the $0.18 per share dividend on Monmouth’s common stock previously declared by Monmouth’s Board on July 1, 2021 and payable on or about September 15, 2021. On July 16, 2021, Monmouth’s common shares closed at $19.23 per share.</p>\n<p>As previously announced, on May 4, 2021, Monmouth entered into a definitive merger agreement with EQC pursuant to which EQC agreed to acquire Monmouth in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $3.4 billion, including the assumption of debt. The combined company is expected to have a pro forma equity market capitalization of approximately $5.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Consistent with its statutory duties and in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, Monmouth’s Board is now evaluating the amended proposal and has not made any determination as to what action to take in response to the proposal. The Company’s Board intends to respond to the proposal in due course and remains committed to acting in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders.</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and CS Capital Advisors, LLC are acting as financial advisors and Stroock &amp; Stroock &amp; Lavan LLP is serving as legal advisor to Monmouth.</p>\n<p><b>About Monmouth</b></p>\n<p>Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation, founded in 1968, is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the oldest public equity REITs in the world. The Company specializes in single tenant, net-leased industrial properties, subject to long-term leases, primarily to investment grade tenants. Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation is a fully integrated and self-managed real estate company, whose property portfolio consists of 120 properties containing a total of approximately 24.5 million rentable square feet, geographically diversified across 31 states. The Company’s occupancy rate as of this date is 99.7%.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation Announces Receipt of Amendment to Unsolicited Acquisition Proposal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMonmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation Announces Receipt of Amendment to Unsolicited Acquisition Proposal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18688854><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No Action Needs to be Taken by Monmouth Shareholders at This Time\nHOLMDEL, N.J., July 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation (NYSE: MNR, “Monmouth” or “the Company”) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18688854\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MNR":"Mach Natural Resources L.P."},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18688854","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152686879","content_text":"No Action Needs to be Taken by Monmouth Shareholders at This Time\nHOLMDEL, N.J., July 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation (NYSE: MNR, “Monmouth” or “the Company”) today announced that it received an amendment to the unsolicited acquisition proposal it previously received on July 8, 2021 from a certain large private investment firm. The amendment to the proposal reflects an increase of $0.18 per share in the consideration that would be paid for each share of Monmouth Common Stock, resulting in a net cash consideration of $18.88 per share, reflecting a stated purchase price of $19.51 per share reduced by the termination fee of approximately $62.2 million, or $0.63 per share, if Monmouth terminates the merger agreement it previously entered into with Equity Commonwealth (“EQC”) in accordance with its terms to accept the amended proposal. The increase results from the investment firm’s decision that the purchase price would no longer be reduced by the $0.18 per share dividend on Monmouth’s common stock previously declared by Monmouth’s Board on July 1, 2021 and payable on or about September 15, 2021. On July 16, 2021, Monmouth’s common shares closed at $19.23 per share.\nAs previously announced, on May 4, 2021, Monmouth entered into a definitive merger agreement with EQC pursuant to which EQC agreed to acquire Monmouth in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $3.4 billion, including the assumption of debt. The combined company is expected to have a pro forma equity market capitalization of approximately $5.5 billion.\nConsistent with its statutory duties and in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, Monmouth’s Board is now evaluating the amended proposal and has not made any determination as to what action to take in response to the proposal. The Company’s Board intends to respond to the proposal in due course and remains committed to acting in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders.\nJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC and CS Capital Advisors, LLC are acting as financial advisors and Stroock & Stroock & Lavan LLP is serving as legal advisor to Monmouth.\nAbout Monmouth\nMonmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation, founded in 1968, is one of the oldest public equity REITs in the world. The Company specializes in single tenant, net-leased industrial properties, subject to long-term leases, primarily to investment grade tenants. Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation is a fully integrated and self-managed real estate company, whose property portfolio consists of 120 properties containing a total of approximately 24.5 million rentable square feet, geographically diversified across 31 states. The Company’s occupancy rate as of this date is 99.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890817763,"gmtCreate":1628091508452,"gmtModify":1703501151797,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890817763","repostId":"1119448743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119448743","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628088393,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119448743?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119448743","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 4) Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday. Other China EdTech giants fell too.","content":"<p>(Aug&nbsp;4)&nbsp;Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday.&nbsp;Other China EdTech giants fell too.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0c5ec083f6ef2c342f613677b1a64b\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259f5783d1b221dc7e7da158c693a61e\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b240bf82bad2b24747aa42ae08c22dc\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 22:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;4)&nbsp;Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday.&nbsp;Other China EdTech giants fell too.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0c5ec083f6ef2c342f613677b1a64b\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259f5783d1b221dc7e7da158c693a61e\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b240bf82bad2b24747aa42ae08c22dc\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119448743","content_text":"(Aug 4) Gaotu fell over 5% after soaring 20% yesterday. Other China EdTech giants fell too.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179874917,"gmtCreate":1626509581339,"gmtModify":1703761321100,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179874917","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890817035,"gmtCreate":1628091419527,"gmtModify":1703501150647,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing!","listText":"thanks for sharing!","text":"thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890817035","repostId":"2156106357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156106357","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628085660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156106357?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is It Time to Buy the S&P 500's 4 Worst-Performing July Stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156106357","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The strong sell-offs for these companies point to a shadow that could hang over these stocks for months or more.","content":"<blockquote>\n The strong sell-offs for these companies point to a shadow that could hang over these stocks for months or more.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Like it or not, the delta variant of COVID-19 is spreading, with few options ready to curb it.</li>\n <li>Renewed lockdown efforts are likely to spread to even more places.</li>\n <li>For investors interested in stepping into oversold stocks, the problem at hand is sheer uncertainty.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Usually, the biggest losers for any given month end up being a hodgepodge of different companies. This is not <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of those times. July's worst-performing names among the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) constituents were <b>Las Vegas Sands</b> (NYSE:LVS), <b>Wynn Resorts</b> (NASDAQ:WYNN), <b>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</b> (NYSE:NCLH), and <b>Carnival Corporation</b> (NYSE:CCL). The commonality is clear. All are tourism plays, but more to the point right now, these companies have the most to lose if the recent increase in COVID-19 cases worsens. In this light, last month's steep sell-offs make a lot of sense.</p>\n<p>Veteran investors know the time to step into quality stocks is when they've been needlessly beaten down, but sometimes, stocks are upended for all the right reasons. It's not always easy to determine which is which, and this is one of those tricky times.</p>\n<p>Too late to stop it now</p>\n<p>The sell-offs last month were steep. Carnival shares fell 17.9% with rival Norwegian Cruise Line seeing its shares slide 18.3%. Wynn Resorts stock fell 19.6%, matching the loss logged by Las Vegas Sands. In all four cases, the selling simply extended pullbacks that first started taking shape in June.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6d79db732cfe9fd24ea383f893ddc5\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Data by YCharts.</p>\n<p>Now, investors face a key question: Will the growing number of global coronavirus cases exact the same toll taken in 2020, the first time the pandemic swept across the world?</p>\n<p>Nobody really knows. From an odds-making perspective, though, it would be naive to believe something like the strict shutdowns we saw last year aren't a possibility if the situation continues to worsen.</p>\n<p>The official guidance thus far is more hopeful. On Aug. 1, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the U.S. will not suffer lockdowns again, even though he believes the pandemic will indeed get worse in the U.S. before improving. Moreover, consumers and corporations alike have learned to operate in a world where COVID-19 is a threat, and many of the millions of vaccinated Americans are ready to venture out and live life despite the risks of doing so.</p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>However, one should avoid assuming the U.S. response will match the worldwide reality. Within the past month, lockdowns have been mandated in Australia, China, Mexico, and Canada, while France and other European countries are raising the bar on who is allowed to travel to, from, and within the country.</p>\n<p>And that's just a small sampling. A wide swath of the world is establishing or reinstating measures meant to curb the spread of the coronavirus as the global number of reported COVID-19 cases appears to be climbing back toward highs seen earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Considering authorities must now deal with a highly contagious delta variant of the disease, lockdowns and other travel restrictions are a strong possibility in the remainder of 2021, and that is especially problematic for casino operators like Las Vegas Sands and Wynn and cruise lines like Carnival and Norwegian. Even a rapid, effective response in the U.S. could still leave these companies exposed to challenges in other regions of the world where they operate.</p>\n<p>Not permanent but no flash in the pan either</p>\n<p>So as it stands now, tourism and travel face a lot of near-term challenges. The full effects of the recent surge in cases may not be seen for months, and as shareholders in companies like Wynn and Carnival experienced in July, a lot of damage can happen to share prices in a short period of time.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500's worst performers last month aren't bargains now as a result of their sell-offs. If anything, their declines are a sign of bigger issues that have yet to be resolved. Only true buy-and-hold investors should consider jumping into these stocks, and for the next few months, they should be prepared to stomach the continued volatility and growing uncertainty that lies ahead for this sector.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time to Buy the S&P 500's 4 Worst-Performing July Stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time to Buy the S&P 500's 4 Worst-Performing July Stocks?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 22:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/04/is-it-time-to-buy-4-worst-performing-july-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The strong sell-offs for these companies point to a shadow that could hang over these stocks for months or more.\n\nKey Points\n\nLike it or not, the delta variant of COVID-19 is spreading, with few ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/04/is-it-time-to-buy-4-worst-performing-july-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TIME":"Clockwise Core Equity & Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/04/is-it-time-to-buy-4-worst-performing-july-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156106357","content_text":"The strong sell-offs for these companies point to a shadow that could hang over these stocks for months or more.\n\nKey Points\n\nLike it or not, the delta variant of COVID-19 is spreading, with few options ready to curb it.\nRenewed lockdown efforts are likely to spread to even more places.\nFor investors interested in stepping into oversold stocks, the problem at hand is sheer uncertainty.\n\nUsually, the biggest losers for any given month end up being a hodgepodge of different companies. This is not one of those times. July's worst-performing names among the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) constituents were Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH), and Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL). The commonality is clear. All are tourism plays, but more to the point right now, these companies have the most to lose if the recent increase in COVID-19 cases worsens. In this light, last month's steep sell-offs make a lot of sense.\nVeteran investors know the time to step into quality stocks is when they've been needlessly beaten down, but sometimes, stocks are upended for all the right reasons. It's not always easy to determine which is which, and this is one of those tricky times.\nToo late to stop it now\nThe sell-offs last month were steep. Carnival shares fell 17.9% with rival Norwegian Cruise Line seeing its shares slide 18.3%. Wynn Resorts stock fell 19.6%, matching the loss logged by Las Vegas Sands. In all four cases, the selling simply extended pullbacks that first started taking shape in June.\n\nData by YCharts.\nNow, investors face a key question: Will the growing number of global coronavirus cases exact the same toll taken in 2020, the first time the pandemic swept across the world?\nNobody really knows. From an odds-making perspective, though, it would be naive to believe something like the strict shutdowns we saw last year aren't a possibility if the situation continues to worsen.\nThe official guidance thus far is more hopeful. On Aug. 1, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the U.S. will not suffer lockdowns again, even though he believes the pandemic will indeed get worse in the U.S. before improving. Moreover, consumers and corporations alike have learned to operate in a world where COVID-19 is a threat, and many of the millions of vaccinated Americans are ready to venture out and live life despite the risks of doing so.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nHowever, one should avoid assuming the U.S. response will match the worldwide reality. Within the past month, lockdowns have been mandated in Australia, China, Mexico, and Canada, while France and other European countries are raising the bar on who is allowed to travel to, from, and within the country.\nAnd that's just a small sampling. A wide swath of the world is establishing or reinstating measures meant to curb the spread of the coronavirus as the global number of reported COVID-19 cases appears to be climbing back toward highs seen earlier this year.\nConsidering authorities must now deal with a highly contagious delta variant of the disease, lockdowns and other travel restrictions are a strong possibility in the remainder of 2021, and that is especially problematic for casino operators like Las Vegas Sands and Wynn and cruise lines like Carnival and Norwegian. Even a rapid, effective response in the U.S. could still leave these companies exposed to challenges in other regions of the world where they operate.\nNot permanent but no flash in the pan either\nSo as it stands now, tourism and travel face a lot of near-term challenges. The full effects of the recent surge in cases may not be seen for months, and as shareholders in companies like Wynn and Carnival experienced in July, a lot of damage can happen to share prices in a short period of time.\nThe S&P 500's worst performers last month aren't bargains now as a result of their sell-offs. If anything, their declines are a sign of bigger issues that have yet to be resolved. Only true buy-and-hold investors should consider jumping into these stocks, and for the next few months, they should be prepared to stomach the continued volatility and growing uncertainty that lies ahead for this sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171973246,"gmtCreate":1626704237285,"gmtModify":1703763701826,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171973246","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170131438,"gmtCreate":1626410768124,"gmtModify":1703759640459,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170131438","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151573133","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626379249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151573133?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151573133","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 15  - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.Amazon, Apple, Tesla and $Facebook$all fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.The S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.The S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than ","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BAC":"美国银行","AIG":"美国国际集团","AMZN":"亚马逊","C":"花旗","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","AAPL":"苹果","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","WFC":"富国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BX":"黑石","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","09086":"华夏纳指-U","NVDA":"英伟达","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","JNJ":"强生",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151573133","content_text":"U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low\nTech sector ends four-day winning streak\n\nJuly 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.\nAmazon, Apple, Tesla and Facebookall fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.\nThe S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.\nFresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.\n\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.\nMorgan Stanley dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.\nSecond-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo & Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase & Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.\nBlackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.\nJohnson & Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.\n(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808489395,"gmtCreate":1627605997017,"gmtModify":1703493168214,"author":{"id":"3583720860929390","authorId":"3583720860929390","name":"nannnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab5534cfa6ad6ce2e2acf9de522ed4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583720860929390","authorIdStr":"3583720860929390"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ohno","listText":"ohno","text":"ohno","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808489395","repostId":"1117706351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}