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2021-08-02
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Brokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market
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2021-07-07
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2021-07-07
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Semiconductors and new energy began to exert their strength. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index closed down by 4.31%, 3.7% and 0.86% respectively, and the Science and Technology 50 Index rose by 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will usher in China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will it have on the market?</p><p>How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the latest summary of the top ten brokerage strategies.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end in August. It is recommended that both growth manufacturing and value consumption be grasped in allocation</b></p><p>It is expected that in August, the extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First of all, the peak of negative resonance of internal and external emotions has passed, investors' expectations of industry policies in the early stage were too pessimistic, and the market overreacted; Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than subversive. After the policy cognition is corrected, investor sentiment will be slowly repaired. Secondly, recently, the herding effect of market funds has gone to the extreme. Both incremental fund opening and stock fund adjustment are concentrated in growth and manufacturing. Under extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphon effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, due to the overall tight balance of market liquidity, the market structure will return to equilibrium from extreme differentiation. Finally, in August, the macro-expected combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remained unchanged, and the short-term disturbance of the domestic economy did not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of Delta variant strain, the timing of European and American economic recovery, herd immunity and monetary easing withdrawal will all be shifted backward, and inter-bank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of configuration, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-level tracks to relatively low-level tracks in the growth sector, including military industry, 5G and communication equipment leaders. On the other hand, we can gradually lay out some consumption and pharmaceutical sectors with very sufficient current valuation adjustments on the left side in advance, including automobiles and services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, clothing, jewelry, beer, sub-high-end liquor, medical beauty, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The short-term sharp decline in the market is the emotional fluctuation still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by some industry regulations is a short-term sentiment fluctuation, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. In the second half of the year, the macro policy was loose, the ROE of listed companies continued to rise, the valuation was acceptable, and the market was looking to rebuild. Fast profit growth and compliance with policy direction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is still the first echelon, paying attention to the restoration of middle and lower reaches of manufacturing industries. In the past week, the market ushered in a rapid adjustment, with the largest decline of CSI 300 reaching 9.8% and the cumulative decline of 5.5%. This was due to the panic of investors caused by the regulatory policies of some industries. This short-term decline adjustment is similar to the thunderstorm in summer. As the saying goes, the wind doesn't end, and the shower doesn't end all day. The medium-term market trend is determined by fundamentals, and we are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: The market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</b></p><p>At present, the fundamentals have not substantially deteriorated, and the micro-market trading structure of some tracks has not touched the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance, not a systemic risk.</p><p>At the same time, in the future, with the pressure of steady economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal widening of credit expectations will continue to be strengthened, and the momentum for small and medium-sized market capitalization to improve with the marginal improvement of the credit cycle will be abundant. On the whole, with the dissipation of emotional disturbance, the superimposed SSE 50 stabilizes and the small and medium-sized market value style pulls up abundant momentum, and the market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life.</p><p>Industry configuration: Under the ultimate differentiation, scientific and technological growth is the preferred choice, focusing on the second and third-tier targets. The ultimate structural deduction, the market is worried about the callback of the strong plate. \"Profit decides the winner, not the valuation ratio\", the boom cycle of technology manufacturing + top-down catalysis is still our primary recommended direction. It is inevitable that the high volatility of the stock price will amplify, but it is never over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>: Market volatility will increase in August Preferred industries chemical, electronics, communications</b></p><p>In August, the market volatility will increase, and the strong differentiation of market style will continue. Under the combined action of liquidity environment, performance trend, valuation level and policy orientation, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of dominant growth lies in the change of liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected. After the interest rate of ten bonds broke 3%, it continued to decline, and the market interest rate continued to be at the lower edge of the policy interest rate. The core reason for loose liquidity is that central banks focus on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from the follow-up interpretation, the pattern of domestic liquidity that is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>: Semiconductor companies in the innovation board are one of the directions with less resistance to focus on mining</b></p><p>A-shares started the era of slow bull, with large fluctuations but shortened adjustment time, and slow index but normalized segment bull market. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market concentrates on digesting the pressure of popular tracks from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to steady state and open a structural bull market; Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the efforts of semiconductors and brokers, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to go to a higher level.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>: Cash flow downward, discount rate downward It is recommended to allocate growth and consumption sectors in August</b></p><p>Finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the prosperity of the economy, while the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when the cash flow goes up, finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle should be allocated, and when the cash flow goes down, the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth should be allocated. According to the latest data, Tianfeng's manufacturing activity index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and discount rate declined. The model suggests that the growth and consumption sectors should be allocated in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: The market will usher in the best buying point in 2021 after the recent adjustment</b></p><p>Compared with 2010 and 2013, if the macro expectation is stable in the next month, the recent adjustment of the stock market has a high probability of ending within one month, and the adjustment range of Wind All A Index has a high probability of about 10%. From the perspective of valuation, the shock range of A-share PB in the past year is completely the same as that in 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show trend downward risk, the lower limit of PB in March 2021 and September 2020 should be difficult to fall below. The continuous improvement of the overall ROE of A shares is likely to last until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying point in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: Market adjustment is the process of risk release, scientific and technological growth is still the key direction of allocation</b></p><p>Against the background of intensifying external environmental risks and rising pressure for steady growth of the domestic economy, the adjustment of macro-economic policies may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, and macro-liquidity will not be significantly tightened. The recent volatility of A shares is more due to emotional disturbance, and market adjustment is also a process of risk release, which does not have systemic risks for the time being. In terms of style, the industrial chain related to \"hard technology\" has policy support, and it is also the direction of Public Offering of Fund to adjust positions and increase allocation. However, the trading structure of popular tracks is crowded, and the early increase of related sectors is too fast, and the market outlook fluctuates or intensifies. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open source securities: cyclical value stocks waiting for volatility to decrease and not eager to \"bargain-hunting\" are entering the pricing range</b></p><p>Last week, the main A-share indexes stabilized after a large adjustment, but there are still big differences between various investors. From the perspective of volatility, the current market is still in structural risk: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of waiting and seeing at this time is not large. Investors don't have to rush to embrace the already crowded hot track, or choose \"bargain hunting\" to classify core assets. In addition, the risk of stalling in some sectors deserves vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public offering bottom warehouse assets are at risk of being withdrawn. However, this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be excessively pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Guangdong Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market. The current game still lies in the uncertainty of the main line of investment</b></p><p>From the perspective of market trading enthusiasm, the market enthusiasm has differentiated. In the second half of July, while the market turnover enlarged, the overall fluctuation was also increasing. On the one hand, the early group stocks were substantially adjusted; on the other hand, the recent high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors still maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for chasing, and the switching of institutional funds was relatively firm. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, and the current game still lies in the unclarity of the main line of investment. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and the follow-up may attach importance to structural adjustment. Previously, the central bank's over-expected RRR cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, the A-share market made a huge downward adjustment, and the sectors were seriously differentiated. Semiconductors and new energy began to exert their strength. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index closed down by 4.31%, 3.7% and 0.86% respectively, and the Science and Technology 50 Index rose by 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will usher in China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will it have on the market?</p><p>How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the latest summary of the top ten brokerage strategies.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end in August. It is recommended that both growth manufacturing and value consumption be grasped in allocation</b></p><p>It is expected that in August, the extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First of all, the peak of negative resonance of internal and external emotions has passed, investors' expectations of industry policies in the early stage were too pessimistic, and the market overreacted; Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than subversive. After the policy cognition is corrected, investor sentiment will be slowly repaired. Secondly, recently, the herding effect of market funds has gone to the extreme. Both incremental fund opening and stock fund adjustment are concentrated in growth and manufacturing. Under extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphon effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, due to the overall tight balance of market liquidity, the market structure will return to equilibrium from extreme differentiation. Finally, in August, the macro-expected combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remained unchanged, and the short-term disturbance of the domestic economy did not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of Delta variant strain, the timing of European and American economic recovery, herd immunity and monetary easing withdrawal will all be shifted backward, and inter-bank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of configuration, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-level tracks to relatively low-level tracks in the growth sector, including military industry, 5G and communication equipment leaders. On the other hand, we can gradually lay out some consumption and pharmaceutical sectors with very sufficient current valuation adjustments on the left side in advance, including automobiles and services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, clothing, jewelry, beer, sub-high-end liquor, medical beauty, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The short-term sharp decline in the market is the emotional fluctuation still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by some industry regulations is a short-term sentiment fluctuation, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. In the second half of the year, the macro policy was loose, the ROE of listed companies continued to rise, the valuation was acceptable, and the market was looking to rebuild. Fast profit growth and compliance with policy direction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is still the first echelon, paying attention to the restoration of middle and lower reaches of manufacturing industries. In the past week, the market ushered in a rapid adjustment, with the largest decline of CSI 300 reaching 9.8% and the cumulative decline of 5.5%. This was due to the panic of investors caused by the regulatory policies of some industries. This short-term decline adjustment is similar to the thunderstorm in summer. As the saying goes, the wind doesn't end, and the shower doesn't end all day. The medium-term market trend is determined by fundamentals, and we are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: The market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</b></p><p>At present, the fundamentals have not substantially deteriorated, and the micro-market trading structure of some tracks has not touched the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance, not a systemic risk.</p><p>At the same time, in the future, with the pressure of steady economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal widening of credit expectations will continue to be strengthened, and the momentum for small and medium-sized market capitalization to improve with the marginal improvement of the credit cycle will be abundant. On the whole, with the dissipation of emotional disturbance, the superimposed SSE 50 stabilizes and the small and medium-sized market value style pulls up abundant momentum, and the market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life.</p><p>Industry configuration: Under the ultimate differentiation, scientific and technological growth is the preferred choice, focusing on the second and third-tier targets. The ultimate structural deduction, the market is worried about the callback of the strong plate. \"Profit decides the winner, not the valuation ratio\", the boom cycle of technology manufacturing + top-down catalysis is still our primary recommended direction. It is inevitable that the high volatility of the stock price will amplify, but it is never over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>: Market volatility will increase in August Preferred industries chemical, electronics, communications</b></p><p>In August, the market volatility will increase, and the strong differentiation of market style will continue. Under the combined action of liquidity environment, performance trend, valuation level and policy orientation, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of dominant growth lies in the change of liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected. After the interest rate of ten bonds broke 3%, it continued to decline, and the market interest rate continued to be at the lower edge of the policy interest rate. The core reason for loose liquidity is that central banks focus on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from the follow-up interpretation, the pattern of domestic liquidity that is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>: Semiconductor companies in the innovation board are one of the directions with less resistance to focus on mining</b></p><p>A-shares started the era of slow bull, with large fluctuations but shortened adjustment time, and slow index but normalized segment bull market. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market concentrates on digesting the pressure of popular tracks from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to steady state and open a structural bull market; Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the efforts of semiconductors and brokers, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to go to a higher level.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>: Cash flow downward, discount rate downward It is recommended to allocate growth and consumption sectors in August</b></p><p>Finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the prosperity of the economy, while the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when the cash flow goes up, finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle should be allocated, and when the cash flow goes down, the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth should be allocated. According to the latest data, Tianfeng's manufacturing activity index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and discount rate declined. The model suggests that the growth and consumption sectors should be allocated in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: The market will usher in the best buying point in 2021 after the recent adjustment</b></p><p>Compared with 2010 and 2013, if the macro expectation is stable in the next month, the recent adjustment of the stock market has a high probability of ending within one month, and the adjustment range of Wind All A Index has a high probability of about 10%. From the perspective of valuation, the shock range of A-share PB in the past year is completely the same as that in 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show trend downward risk, the lower limit of PB in March 2021 and September 2020 should be difficult to fall below. The continuous improvement of the overall ROE of A shares is likely to last until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying point in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: Market adjustment is the process of risk release, scientific and technological growth is still the key direction of allocation</b></p><p>Against the background of intensifying external environmental risks and rising pressure for steady growth of the domestic economy, the adjustment of macro-economic policies may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, and macro-liquidity will not be significantly tightened. The recent volatility of A shares is more due to emotional disturbance, and market adjustment is also a process of risk release, which does not have systemic risks for the time being. In terms of style, the industrial chain related to \"hard technology\" has policy support, and it is also the direction of Public Offering of Fund to adjust positions and increase allocation. However, the trading structure of popular tracks is crowded, and the early increase of related sectors is too fast, and the market outlook fluctuates or intensifies. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open source securities: cyclical value stocks waiting for volatility to decrease and not eager to \"bargain-hunting\" are entering the pricing range</b></p><p>Last week, the main A-share indexes stabilized after a large adjustment, but there are still big differences between various investors. From the perspective of volatility, the current market is still in structural risk: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of waiting and seeing at this time is not large. Investors don't have to rush to embrace the already crowded hot track, or choose \"bargain hunting\" to classify core assets. In addition, the risk of stalling in some sectors deserves vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public offering bottom warehouse assets are at risk of being withdrawn. However, this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be excessively pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Guangdong Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market. The current game still lies in the uncertainty of the main line of investment</b></p><p>From the perspective of market trading enthusiasm, the market enthusiasm has differentiated. In the second half of July, while the market turnover enlarged, the overall fluctuation was also increasing. On the one hand, the early group stocks were substantially adjusted; on the other hand, the recent high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors still maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for chasing, and the switching of institutional funds was relatively firm. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, and the current game still lies in the unclarity of the main line of investment. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and the follow-up may attach importance to structural adjustment. Previously, the central bank's over-expected RRR cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156162952","content_text":"上周，A股市场向下巨幅调整，板块分化严重，半导体、新能源开始发力，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周收跌4.31%、3.7%、0.86%，科创50指数涨1.77%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来中国7月CPI和美国非农就业报告，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：8月A股市场极端分化将接近尾声 配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓\n预计在8月份，A股市场的极端分化将接近尾声，成长和价值将重归均衡，配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓。首先，内外情绪负面共振的高峰已过，投资者前期对行业政策的预期过于悲观，市场过度反应；国内行业政策更重长远，是规范性而非颠覆性的，政策认知纠偏后，投资者情绪将缓慢修复。其次，近期市场资金的羊群效应走向极致，增量资金建仓和存量资金调仓皆集中于成长制造，极端分化下强势板块的流动性虹吸效应明显，8月份受市场流动性整体紧平衡的约束渐强，市场结构将由极端分化重归均衡。最后，8月“弱基本面+强流动性”的宏观预期组合不变，国内经济的短期扰动不改中期向好趋势，Delta变种毒株压制下，欧美经济恢复、群体免疫、货币宽松退出的时点都将后移，信用风险约束下银行间流动性依然宽松。\n配置上，建议在成长制造和价值消费间保持均衡。一方面，建议在成长板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，包括军工、5G、通信设备龙头。另一方面，可以逐步提前左侧布局当下估值调整非常充分的部分消费和医药板块，包括汽车、服务机器人、服装、珠宝饰品、啤酒、次高端白酒、医美等。\n2. 海通证券：市场短期急跌是情绪面波动 仍看好下半年市场\n部分行业监管引起的市场急跌属于短期情绪波动，市场中期趋势取决于基本面。下半年宏观政策偏宽松，上市公司ROE继续回升，估值尚可，市场望重建。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造仍是第一梯队，关注中下游制造业的修复。最近一周市场迎来快速调整，沪深300最大跌幅达到9.8%，累计跌幅5.5%，这是源于部分行业监管政策调控引发投资者恐慌。短期这种下跌调整类似夏天的雷暴雨，所谓飘风不终朝，骤雨不终日，中期市场走势由基本面决定，仍看好下半年市场。\n3. 国泰君安：市场有望蓄势迎新生 把握中盘蓝筹、科技成长\n当前基本面并未发生实质性恶化，部分赛道的微观市场交易结构亦未触及阈值，本次调整属于恐慌情绪扰动，而非系统性风险。\n同时，未来随下半年经济稳增长压力以及广义财政周期的触底反弹，信用预期边际向宽将不断强化，中小市值随信用周期边际改善动力充沛。整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。\n行业配置：极致的分化下，首选科技成长，重点在二三线标的。极致的结构演绎，市场担心强势板块的回调。“盈利决胜负，而非估值比高低”，科技制造的景气周期+自上而下导向催化，仍是我们首要推荐的方向。股价高位波动放大难免，但绝未到结束时。\n4. 方正证券：8月市场波动将加大 首选行业化工、电子、通信\n8月市场波动将加大，市场在风格上的强分化将延续，在流动性环境、业绩趋势、估值水平、政策导向的共同作用下，成长是阻力最小的方向。成长占优的核心在于流动性的变化，二季度以来流动性比预期好，十债利率破3%后继续下行，市场利率持续位于政策利率下沿。流动性宽松的核心原因在于各国央行着眼于“滞”而非“胀”。从后续演绎来看，国内流动性易松难紧的格局已经确立。\n5. 浙商证券：创板中的半导体公司是阻力较小的方向之一 可以重点挖掘\nA股开启慢牛时代，波动较大但调整时间缩短，指数慢牛但分部牛市常态化，因此我们认为：短期来看，周一至周三市场集中消化热门赛道的压力后，将重新回归稳态，开启结构牛市；进一步展望下半年，随着半导体和券商发力，上证有望更上层楼。\n6. 天风证券：现金流下行，折现率下行 建议8月配置成长、消费板块\n金融、周期上游、周期中游对于现金流，也就是经济的景气程度敏感度较高，而周期下游、消费、成长板块则相对敏感度较低。因此在现金流上行时，应当配置金融、周期上游、周期中游，现金流下行时应当配置周期下游、消费、成长。根据最新数据，天风制造业活动指数同比下行，现金流下行，折现率下行，模型建议8月配置成长、消费板块。\n7. 信达证券：近期调整后 市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点\n对比2010和2013年，如果未来1个月宏观预期稳定，则股市近期的调整有较大的概率在一个月以内结束，万得全A指数的调整幅度大概率在10%左右。从估值层面来看，过去1年A股PB的震荡区间和2016-2017年完全一致，只要上市公司整体ROE不出现趋势性下行风险，2021年3月和2020年9月的PB下限应该是很难跌破的。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。\n8. 华西证券：市场调整是风险释放的过程 科技成长仍是配置的重点方向\n在外部环境风险加剧和国内经济稳增长压力上升的背景下，下半年宏观政策调节力度或边际加强，宏观流动性难大幅缩紧。近期A股的波动加剧更多源于情绪面扰动，市场调整也是风险释放的过程，暂不具备系统性风险。风格方面，“硬科技”相关产业链具备政策支持，同时也是公募基金调仓增配方向，但热门赛道交易结构拥挤，且相关板块前期涨幅过快，后市波动或加剧，建议投资者合理降低预期收益。\n9. 开源证券：等波动率降低、不急于“抄底” 周期类价值股正在进入定价区间\n上周A股主要指数在经历较大幅度调整后有所企稳，但各类投资者之间分歧仍较大。从波动率视角看，当前市场仍处于结构性风险之中：波动率并未收敛，历史经验指示此时观望的机会成本不大，投资者不用着急拥抱本已拥挤的热门赛道，或选择“抄底”部分类核心资产。另外，部分板块失速风险值得警惕，历史经验指示部分公募底仓资产有被退出风险，但这一过程反复时间较长，投资者同样不应过度悲观。\n10. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金不缺 目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确\n从市场交投热情来看，市场热度出现分化。7月下半月市场成交量放大的同时，整体波动也在加大，一方面是前期抱团股出现大幅调整，另一方面，近期以新能源、半导体为代表的高成长板块仍保持了较为持续的追逐热情，机构资金切换较为坚定。资本市场增量资金不缺，目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确。货币政策边际宽松有望延续，后续或将重视结构性调整，此前央行超预期降准也提前释放了下半年货币政策边际宽松的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140481545,"gmtCreate":1625668800287,"gmtModify":1703746125610,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583788765747608","idStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140481545","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140483970,"gmtCreate":1625668748790,"gmtModify":1703746123305,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583788765747608","idStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140483970","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":140481545,"gmtCreate":1625668800287,"gmtModify":1703746125610,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140481545","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805811248,"gmtCreate":1627869525384,"gmtModify":1703496847846,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805811248","repostId":"2156162952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156162952","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627863122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156162952?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 08:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Brokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156162952","media":"格隆汇","summary":"整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。","content":"<p>Last week, the A-share market made a huge downward adjustment, and the sectors were seriously differentiated. Semiconductors and new energy began to exert their strength. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index closed down by 4.31%, 3.7% and 0.86% respectively, and the Science and Technology 50 Index rose by 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will usher in China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will it have on the market?</p><p>How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the latest summary of the top ten brokerage strategies.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end in August. It is recommended that both growth manufacturing and value consumption be grasped in allocation</b></p><p>It is expected that in August, the extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First of all, the peak of negative resonance of internal and external emotions has passed, investors' expectations of industry policies in the early stage were too pessimistic, and the market overreacted; Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than subversive. After the policy cognition is corrected, investor sentiment will be slowly repaired. Secondly, recently, the herding effect of market funds has gone to the extreme. Both incremental fund opening and stock fund adjustment are concentrated in growth and manufacturing. Under extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphon effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, due to the overall tight balance of market liquidity, the market structure will return to equilibrium from extreme differentiation. Finally, in August, the macro-expected combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remained unchanged, and the short-term disturbance of the domestic economy did not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of Delta variant strain, the timing of European and American economic recovery, herd immunity and monetary easing withdrawal will all be shifted backward, and inter-bank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of configuration, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-level tracks to relatively low-level tracks in the growth sector, including military industry, 5G and communication equipment leaders. On the other hand, we can gradually lay out some consumption and pharmaceutical sectors with very sufficient current valuation adjustments on the left side in advance, including automobiles and services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, clothing, jewelry, beer, sub-high-end liquor, medical beauty, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The short-term sharp decline in the market is the emotional fluctuation still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by some industry regulations is a short-term sentiment fluctuation, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. In the second half of the year, the macro policy was loose, the ROE of listed companies continued to rise, the valuation was acceptable, and the market was looking to rebuild. Fast profit growth and compliance with policy direction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is still the first echelon, paying attention to the restoration of middle and lower reaches of manufacturing industries. In the past week, the market ushered in a rapid adjustment, with the largest decline of CSI 300 reaching 9.8% and the cumulative decline of 5.5%. This was due to the panic of investors caused by the regulatory policies of some industries. This short-term decline adjustment is similar to the thunderstorm in summer. As the saying goes, the wind doesn't end, and the shower doesn't end all day. The medium-term market trend is determined by fundamentals, and we are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: The market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</b></p><p>At present, the fundamentals have not substantially deteriorated, and the micro-market trading structure of some tracks has not touched the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance, not a systemic risk.</p><p>At the same time, in the future, with the pressure of steady economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal widening of credit expectations will continue to be strengthened, and the momentum for small and medium-sized market capitalization to improve with the marginal improvement of the credit cycle will be abundant. On the whole, with the dissipation of emotional disturbance, the superimposed SSE 50 stabilizes and the small and medium-sized market value style pulls up abundant momentum, and the market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life.</p><p>Industry configuration: Under the ultimate differentiation, scientific and technological growth is the preferred choice, focusing on the second and third-tier targets. The ultimate structural deduction, the market is worried about the callback of the strong plate. \"Profit decides the winner, not the valuation ratio\", the boom cycle of technology manufacturing + top-down catalysis is still our primary recommended direction. It is inevitable that the high volatility of the stock price will amplify, but it is never over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>: Market volatility will increase in August Preferred industries chemical, electronics, communications</b></p><p>In August, the market volatility will increase, and the strong differentiation of market style will continue. Under the combined action of liquidity environment, performance trend, valuation level and policy orientation, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of dominant growth lies in the change of liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected. After the interest rate of ten bonds broke 3%, it continued to decline, and the market interest rate continued to be at the lower edge of the policy interest rate. The core reason for loose liquidity is that central banks focus on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from the follow-up interpretation, the pattern of domestic liquidity that is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>: Semiconductor companies in the innovation board are one of the directions with less resistance to focus on mining</b></p><p>A-shares started the era of slow bull, with large fluctuations but shortened adjustment time, and slow index but normalized segment bull market. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market concentrates on digesting the pressure of popular tracks from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to steady state and open a structural bull market; Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the efforts of semiconductors and brokers, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to go to a higher level.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>: Cash flow downward, discount rate downward It is recommended to allocate growth and consumption sectors in August</b></p><p>Finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the prosperity of the economy, while the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when the cash flow goes up, finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle should be allocated, and when the cash flow goes down, the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth should be allocated. According to the latest data, Tianfeng's manufacturing activity index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and discount rate declined. The model suggests that the growth and consumption sectors should be allocated in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: The market will usher in the best buying point in 2021 after the recent adjustment</b></p><p>Compared with 2010 and 2013, if the macro expectation is stable in the next month, the recent adjustment of the stock market has a high probability of ending within one month, and the adjustment range of Wind All A Index has a high probability of about 10%. From the perspective of valuation, the shock range of A-share PB in the past year is completely the same as that in 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show trend downward risk, the lower limit of PB in March 2021 and September 2020 should be difficult to fall below. The continuous improvement of the overall ROE of A shares is likely to last until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying point in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: Market adjustment is the process of risk release, scientific and technological growth is still the key direction of allocation</b></p><p>Against the background of intensifying external environmental risks and rising pressure for steady growth of the domestic economy, the adjustment of macro-economic policies may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, and macro-liquidity will not be significantly tightened. The recent volatility of A shares is more due to emotional disturbance, and market adjustment is also a process of risk release, which does not have systemic risks for the time being. In terms of style, the industrial chain related to \"hard technology\" has policy support, and it is also the direction of Public Offering of Fund to adjust positions and increase allocation. However, the trading structure of popular tracks is crowded, and the early increase of related sectors is too fast, and the market outlook fluctuates or intensifies. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open source securities: cyclical value stocks waiting for volatility to decrease and not eager to \"bargain-hunting\" are entering the pricing range</b></p><p>Last week, the main A-share indexes stabilized after a large adjustment, but there are still big differences between various investors. From the perspective of volatility, the current market is still in structural risk: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of waiting and seeing at this time is not large. Investors don't have to rush to embrace the already crowded hot track, or choose \"bargain hunting\" to classify core assets. In addition, the risk of stalling in some sectors deserves vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public offering bottom warehouse assets are at risk of being withdrawn. However, this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be excessively pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Guangdong Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market. The current game still lies in the uncertainty of the main line of investment</b></p><p>From the perspective of market trading enthusiasm, the market enthusiasm has differentiated. In the second half of July, while the market turnover enlarged, the overall fluctuation was also increasing. On the one hand, the early group stocks were substantially adjusted; on the other hand, the recent high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors still maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for chasing, and the switching of institutional funds was relatively firm. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, and the current game still lies in the unclarity of the main line of investment. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and the follow-up may attach importance to structural adjustment. Previously, the central bank's over-expected RRR cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage Strategy: The market is expected to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, the A-share market made a huge downward adjustment, and the sectors were seriously differentiated. Semiconductors and new energy began to exert their strength. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index closed down by 4.31%, 3.7% and 0.86% respectively, and the Science and Technology 50 Index rose by 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will usher in China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will it have on the market?</p><p>How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the latest summary of the top ten brokerage strategies.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end in August. It is recommended that both growth manufacturing and value consumption be grasped in allocation</b></p><p>It is expected that in August, the extreme differentiation of the A-share market will come to an end, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First of all, the peak of negative resonance of internal and external emotions has passed, investors' expectations of industry policies in the early stage were too pessimistic, and the market overreacted; Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than subversive. After the policy cognition is corrected, investor sentiment will be slowly repaired. Secondly, recently, the herding effect of market funds has gone to the extreme. Both incremental fund opening and stock fund adjustment are concentrated in growth and manufacturing. Under extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphon effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, due to the overall tight balance of market liquidity, the market structure will return to equilibrium from extreme differentiation. Finally, in August, the macro-expected combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remained unchanged, and the short-term disturbance of the domestic economy did not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of Delta variant strain, the timing of European and American economic recovery, herd immunity and monetary easing withdrawal will all be shifted backward, and inter-bank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of configuration, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-level tracks to relatively low-level tracks in the growth sector, including military industry, 5G and communication equipment leaders. On the other hand, we can gradually lay out some consumption and pharmaceutical sectors with very sufficient current valuation adjustments on the left side in advance, including automobiles and services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, clothing, jewelry, beer, sub-high-end liquor, medical beauty, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: The short-term sharp decline in the market is the emotional fluctuation still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by some industry regulations is a short-term sentiment fluctuation, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. In the second half of the year, the macro policy was loose, the ROE of listed companies continued to rise, the valuation was acceptable, and the market was looking to rebuild. Fast profit growth and compliance with policy direction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is still the first echelon, paying attention to the restoration of middle and lower reaches of manufacturing industries. In the past week, the market ushered in a rapid adjustment, with the largest decline of CSI 300 reaching 9.8% and the cumulative decline of 5.5%. This was due to the panic of investors caused by the regulatory policies of some industries. This short-term decline adjustment is similar to the thunderstorm in summer. As the saying goes, the wind doesn't end, and the shower doesn't end all day. The medium-term market trend is determined by fundamentals, and we are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: The market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life, grasp the blue chip and scientific and technological growth in the middle of the market</b></p><p>At present, the fundamentals have not substantially deteriorated, and the micro-market trading structure of some tracks has not touched the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance, not a systemic risk.</p><p>At the same time, in the future, with the pressure of steady economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal widening of credit expectations will continue to be strengthened, and the momentum for small and medium-sized market capitalization to improve with the marginal improvement of the credit cycle will be abundant. On the whole, with the dissipation of emotional disturbance, the superimposed SSE 50 stabilizes and the small and medium-sized market value style pulls up abundant momentum, and the market is expected to gain momentum to welcome a new life.</p><p>Industry configuration: Under the ultimate differentiation, scientific and technological growth is the preferred choice, focusing on the second and third-tier targets. The ultimate structural deduction, the market is worried about the callback of the strong plate. \"Profit decides the winner, not the valuation ratio\", the boom cycle of technology manufacturing + top-down catalysis is still our primary recommended direction. It is inevitable that the high volatility of the stock price will amplify, but it is never over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>: Market volatility will increase in August Preferred industries chemical, electronics, communications</b></p><p>In August, the market volatility will increase, and the strong differentiation of market style will continue. Under the combined action of liquidity environment, performance trend, valuation level and policy orientation, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of dominant growth lies in the change of liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected. After the interest rate of ten bonds broke 3%, it continued to decline, and the market interest rate continued to be at the lower edge of the policy interest rate. The core reason for loose liquidity is that central banks focus on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from the follow-up interpretation, the pattern of domestic liquidity that is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>: Semiconductor companies in the innovation board are one of the directions with less resistance to focus on mining</b></p><p>A-shares started the era of slow bull, with large fluctuations but shortened adjustment time, and slow index but normalized segment bull market. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market concentrates on digesting the pressure of popular tracks from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to steady state and open a structural bull market; Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the efforts of semiconductors and brokers, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to go to a higher level.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>: Cash flow downward, discount rate downward It is recommended to allocate growth and consumption sectors in August</b></p><p>Finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the prosperity of the economy, while the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when the cash flow goes up, finance, the upstream of the cycle and the middle of the cycle should be allocated, and when the cash flow goes down, the downstream of the cycle, consumption and growth should be allocated. According to the latest data, Tianfeng's manufacturing activity index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and discount rate declined. The model suggests that the growth and consumption sectors should be allocated in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: The market will usher in the best buying point in 2021 after the recent adjustment</b></p><p>Compared with 2010 and 2013, if the macro expectation is stable in the next month, the recent adjustment of the stock market has a high probability of ending within one month, and the adjustment range of Wind All A Index has a high probability of about 10%. From the perspective of valuation, the shock range of A-share PB in the past year is completely the same as that in 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show trend downward risk, the lower limit of PB in March 2021 and September 2020 should be difficult to fall below. The continuous improvement of the overall ROE of A shares is likely to last until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying point in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: Market adjustment is the process of risk release, scientific and technological growth is still the key direction of allocation</b></p><p>Against the background of intensifying external environmental risks and rising pressure for steady growth of the domestic economy, the adjustment of macro-economic policies may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, and macro-liquidity will not be significantly tightened. The recent volatility of A shares is more due to emotional disturbance, and market adjustment is also a process of risk release, which does not have systemic risks for the time being. In terms of style, the industrial chain related to \"hard technology\" has policy support, and it is also the direction of Public Offering of Fund to adjust positions and increase allocation. However, the trading structure of popular tracks is crowded, and the early increase of related sectors is too fast, and the market outlook fluctuates or intensifies. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open source securities: cyclical value stocks waiting for volatility to decrease and not eager to \"bargain-hunting\" are entering the pricing range</b></p><p>Last week, the main A-share indexes stabilized after a large adjustment, but there are still big differences between various investors. From the perspective of volatility, the current market is still in structural risk: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of waiting and seeing at this time is not large. Investors don't have to rush to embrace the already crowded hot track, or choose \"bargain hunting\" to classify core assets. In addition, the risk of stalling in some sectors deserves vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public offering bottom warehouse assets are at risk of being withdrawn. However, this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be excessively pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Guangdong Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market. The current game still lies in the uncertainty of the main line of investment</b></p><p>From the perspective of market trading enthusiasm, the market enthusiasm has differentiated. In the second half of July, while the market turnover enlarged, the overall fluctuation was also increasing. On the one hand, the early group stocks were substantially adjusted; on the other hand, the recent high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors still maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for chasing, and the switching of institutional funds was relatively firm. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, and the current game still lies in the unclarity of the main line of investment. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and the follow-up may attach importance to structural adjustment. Previously, the central bank's over-expected RRR cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156162952","content_text":"上周，A股市场向下巨幅调整，板块分化严重，半导体、新能源开始发力，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周收跌4.31%、3.7%、0.86%，科创50指数涨1.77%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来中国7月CPI和美国非农就业报告，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：8月A股市场极端分化将接近尾声 配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓\n预计在8月份，A股市场的极端分化将接近尾声，成长和价值将重归均衡，配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓。首先，内外情绪负面共振的高峰已过，投资者前期对行业政策的预期过于悲观，市场过度反应；国内行业政策更重长远，是规范性而非颠覆性的，政策认知纠偏后，投资者情绪将缓慢修复。其次，近期市场资金的羊群效应走向极致，增量资金建仓和存量资金调仓皆集中于成长制造，极端分化下强势板块的流动性虹吸效应明显，8月份受市场流动性整体紧平衡的约束渐强，市场结构将由极端分化重归均衡。最后，8月“弱基本面+强流动性”的宏观预期组合不变，国内经济的短期扰动不改中期向好趋势，Delta变种毒株压制下，欧美经济恢复、群体免疫、货币宽松退出的时点都将后移，信用风险约束下银行间流动性依然宽松。\n配置上，建议在成长制造和价值消费间保持均衡。一方面，建议在成长板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，包括军工、5G、通信设备龙头。另一方面，可以逐步提前左侧布局当下估值调整非常充分的部分消费和医药板块，包括汽车、服务机器人、服装、珠宝饰品、啤酒、次高端白酒、医美等。\n2. 海通证券：市场短期急跌是情绪面波动 仍看好下半年市场\n部分行业监管引起的市场急跌属于短期情绪波动，市场中期趋势取决于基本面。下半年宏观政策偏宽松，上市公司ROE继续回升，估值尚可，市场望重建。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造仍是第一梯队，关注中下游制造业的修复。最近一周市场迎来快速调整，沪深300最大跌幅达到9.8%，累计跌幅5.5%，这是源于部分行业监管政策调控引发投资者恐慌。短期这种下跌调整类似夏天的雷暴雨，所谓飘风不终朝，骤雨不终日，中期市场走势由基本面决定，仍看好下半年市场。\n3. 国泰君安：市场有望蓄势迎新生 把握中盘蓝筹、科技成长\n当前基本面并未发生实质性恶化，部分赛道的微观市场交易结构亦未触及阈值，本次调整属于恐慌情绪扰动，而非系统性风险。\n同时，未来随下半年经济稳增长压力以及广义财政周期的触底反弹，信用预期边际向宽将不断强化，中小市值随信用周期边际改善动力充沛。整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。\n行业配置：极致的分化下，首选科技成长，重点在二三线标的。极致的结构演绎，市场担心强势板块的回调。“盈利决胜负，而非估值比高低”，科技制造的景气周期+自上而下导向催化，仍是我们首要推荐的方向。股价高位波动放大难免，但绝未到结束时。\n4. 方正证券：8月市场波动将加大 首选行业化工、电子、通信\n8月市场波动将加大，市场在风格上的强分化将延续，在流动性环境、业绩趋势、估值水平、政策导向的共同作用下，成长是阻力最小的方向。成长占优的核心在于流动性的变化，二季度以来流动性比预期好，十债利率破3%后继续下行，市场利率持续位于政策利率下沿。流动性宽松的核心原因在于各国央行着眼于“滞”而非“胀”。从后续演绎来看，国内流动性易松难紧的格局已经确立。\n5. 浙商证券：创板中的半导体公司是阻力较小的方向之一 可以重点挖掘\nA股开启慢牛时代，波动较大但调整时间缩短，指数慢牛但分部牛市常态化，因此我们认为：短期来看，周一至周三市场集中消化热门赛道的压力后，将重新回归稳态，开启结构牛市；进一步展望下半年，随着半导体和券商发力，上证有望更上层楼。\n6. 天风证券：现金流下行，折现率下行 建议8月配置成长、消费板块\n金融、周期上游、周期中游对于现金流，也就是经济的景气程度敏感度较高，而周期下游、消费、成长板块则相对敏感度较低。因此在现金流上行时，应当配置金融、周期上游、周期中游，现金流下行时应当配置周期下游、消费、成长。根据最新数据，天风制造业活动指数同比下行，现金流下行，折现率下行，模型建议8月配置成长、消费板块。\n7. 信达证券：近期调整后 市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点\n对比2010和2013年，如果未来1个月宏观预期稳定，则股市近期的调整有较大的概率在一个月以内结束，万得全A指数的调整幅度大概率在10%左右。从估值层面来看，过去1年A股PB的震荡区间和2016-2017年完全一致，只要上市公司整体ROE不出现趋势性下行风险，2021年3月和2020年9月的PB下限应该是很难跌破的。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。\n8. 华西证券：市场调整是风险释放的过程 科技成长仍是配置的重点方向\n在外部环境风险加剧和国内经济稳增长压力上升的背景下，下半年宏观政策调节力度或边际加强，宏观流动性难大幅缩紧。近期A股的波动加剧更多源于情绪面扰动，市场调整也是风险释放的过程，暂不具备系统性风险。风格方面，“硬科技”相关产业链具备政策支持，同时也是公募基金调仓增配方向，但热门赛道交易结构拥挤，且相关板块前期涨幅过快，后市波动或加剧，建议投资者合理降低预期收益。\n9. 开源证券：等波动率降低、不急于“抄底” 周期类价值股正在进入定价区间\n上周A股主要指数在经历较大幅度调整后有所企稳，但各类投资者之间分歧仍较大。从波动率视角看，当前市场仍处于结构性风险之中：波动率并未收敛，历史经验指示此时观望的机会成本不大，投资者不用着急拥抱本已拥挤的热门赛道，或选择“抄底”部分类核心资产。另外，部分板块失速风险值得警惕，历史经验指示部分公募底仓资产有被退出风险，但这一过程反复时间较长，投资者同样不应过度悲观。\n10. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金不缺 目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确\n从市场交投热情来看，市场热度出现分化。7月下半月市场成交量放大的同时，整体波动也在加大，一方面是前期抱团股出现大幅调整，另一方面，近期以新能源、半导体为代表的高成长板块仍保持了较为持续的追逐热情，机构资金切换较为坚定。资本市场增量资金不缺，目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确。货币政策边际宽松有望延续，后续或将重视结构性调整，此前央行超预期降准也提前释放了下半年货币政策边际宽松的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140483970,"gmtCreate":1625668748790,"gmtModify":1703746123305,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140483970","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149390842","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625668450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149390842?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Oil prices plummet as UAE plans to sell oil wildly unilaterally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149390842","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, the price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures plummeted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d1234c48fe0de6052894acce79f5f\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\"></p><p>On the news side, the US Dollar Index DXY broke through the previous high of 92.76, a new high since April 6th.</p><p>On the other hand, behind the standoff within OPEC + over whether to boost oil production, a key cartel member, the UAE, has developed a new strategy:<b>Sell as much crude oil as you can before demand dries up.</b>The strategy of the UAE, the world's largest reserve of untapped oil, marks the most remarkable shift in its oil policy in history and is breaking with traditional beliefs. After all, the government has said for years that they are not worried about not finding a buyer for crude oil for a long time to come (and thus breaking the sale).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement held several rounds of talks in Vienna at the beginning of April this year, and no consensus has been reached for three months. Hardline representative Raisi is elected Iran's new president, and wariness against the United States in nuclear talks will only grow stronger. The date of the return of Iranian crude oil to the market has been postponed many times. At present, the road is difficult and long, and the prospect is unpredictable. The breakdown of OPEC + negotiations means that the follow-up production increase plan is stranded, which will further aggravate the global situation of tight crude oil supply;</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, and the pace of recovery of developed economies continues to lead emerging economies. The latest Global Economic Prospect report released by the World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2021 from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and travel to work in many countries have reached their highest levels since the start of last year, with the travel index of major eurozone economies only about 10% lower than before the pandemic and the U.S. travel activity index down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, aviation kerosene consumption has more room for growth than land transportation fuel demand. Goldman Sachs expects that the global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, and the gap between crude oil supply and demand will further enlarge.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of large-scale changes in monetary policy positions of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. The leading indicators of economic operation in Europe and the United States have fallen, and the market is worried that the economy may enter a cycle of stagflation or deflation. According to the \"Merrill Lynch Clock\" theory, the price of crude oil has performed well in the stagflation period. As for the deflation risk, we think it is not big on the whole.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices plummet as UAE plans to sell oil wildly unilaterally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices plummet as UAE plans to sell oil wildly unilaterally\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 22:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, the price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures plummeted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d1234c48fe0de6052894acce79f5f\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\"></p><p>On the news side, the US Dollar Index DXY broke through the previous high of 92.76, a new high since April 6th.</p><p>On the other hand, behind the standoff within OPEC + over whether to boost oil production, a key cartel member, the UAE, has developed a new strategy:<b>Sell as much crude oil as you can before demand dries up.</b>The strategy of the UAE, the world's largest reserve of untapped oil, marks the most remarkable shift in its oil policy in history and is breaking with traditional beliefs. After all, the government has said for years that they are not worried about not finding a buyer for crude oil for a long time to come (and thus breaking the sale).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement held several rounds of talks in Vienna at the beginning of April this year, and no consensus has been reached for three months. Hardline representative Raisi is elected Iran's new president, and wariness against the United States in nuclear talks will only grow stronger. The date of the return of Iranian crude oil to the market has been postponed many times. At present, the road is difficult and long, and the prospect is unpredictable. The breakdown of OPEC + negotiations means that the follow-up production increase plan is stranded, which will further aggravate the global situation of tight crude oil supply;</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, and the pace of recovery of developed economies continues to lead emerging economies. The latest Global Economic Prospect report released by the World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2021 from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and travel to work in many countries have reached their highest levels since the start of last year, with the travel index of major eurozone economies only about 10% lower than before the pandemic and the U.S. travel activity index down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, aviation kerosene consumption has more room for growth than land transportation fuel demand. Goldman Sachs expects that the global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, and the gap between crude oil supply and demand will further enlarge.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of large-scale changes in monetary policy positions of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. The leading indicators of economic operation in Europe and the United States have fallen, and the market is worried that the economy may enter a cycle of stagflation or deflation. According to the \"Merrill Lynch Clock\" theory, the price of crude oil has performed well in the stagflation period. As for the deflation risk, we think it is not big on the whole.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40d7f90c920f8b2d2d6c0e89575a430","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149390842","content_text":"周三盘中，WTI原油期货主力合约价格直线下跌。\n\n消息面上，美元指数DXY突破前高92.76，创4月6日以来新高。\n另一方面，在OPEC+内部关于是否提高石油产量的僵局背后，一个关键的卡特尔成员——阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。阿联酋是世界上最大的未开采源油储备国，该国的此项战略，标志着其石油政策正在发生历史上最显著的转变，并正在打破传统观念。毕竟多年来该国政府一直表示，他们并不担心在未来很长一段时间内找不到原油买家（从而击破出售）。\n供应方面，伊核协议相关方今年4月初开始在维也纳举行了多轮会谈，至今已持续三个月仍未达成共识。强硬派代表莱西当选伊朗新总统后，在核谈判中对美国的戒备心只会更加强烈。市场对伊朗原油回归市场的日期已经多次推迟，目前看道阻且长、前景难料。而OPEC+谈判破裂，意味着后续增产计划搁浅，将进一步加剧全球面临原油供应紧张的局面；\n需求方面，全球经济增长有望进一步提速，发达经济体复苏步伐继续领先新兴经济体。世界银行发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2021年全球经济增长预期由4.1%上调至5.6%。随着疫苗接种的不断推进和经济的重新开放，欧美道路出行需求得到明显释放。许多国家的公共交通和上班出行都到了去年年初以来的最高水平，其中欧元区各大经济体出行指数仅较疫情前低10%左右，美国出行活动指数较疫情前下降了6.5%。随着出行限制的解除，航空煤油的消费相较于陆上交通燃料需求具有更大的上涨空间。高盛预计6月全球需求达到了9690万桶/天，8月份全球需求将达到9923万桶/天，原油供需缺口将进一步放大。\n流动性方面，三季度主要经济体货币政策立场发生大规模变化的概率较低，货币市场利率仍将保持低位运行态势。欧美经济运行领先指标回落，市场忧虑经济可能进入滞胀或通缩周期。按照“美林时钟”理论，滞涨期原油价格有不错的表现，至于通缩风险我们认为总体而言并不大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
