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2021-05-19
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Palantir: A Future Tech Mega-Cap On Sale
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583934422208798","uuid":"3583934422208798","gmtCreate":1620840397837,"gmtModify":1621434844820,"name":"kimochiWarui","pinyin":"kimochiwarui","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4df0d4c35225ffce39e24ef66a82b46","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[],"userBadgeCount":0,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":197362800,"gmtCreate":1621429828000,"gmtModify":1704357472156,"author":{"id":"3583934422208798","authorId":"3583934422208798","name":"kimochiWarui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4df0d4c35225ffce39e24ef66a82b46","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583934422208798","authorIdStr":"3583934422208798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197362800","repostId":"1197810146","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197810146","pubTimestamp":1621419501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197810146?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 18:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Future Tech Mega-Cap On Sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197810146","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir still remain ~50% below all-time highs, reeling from a correction that s","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shares of Palantir still remain ~50% below all-time highs, reeling from a correction that started in February.</li>\n <li>Fundamentally, the company continues to perform tremendously well. Growth is clocking in just shy of ~50% y/y and exceeding internal targets.</li>\n <li>Palantir has also made huge strides in improving adjusted EBITDA profitability, removing a major obstacle for sentiment in the stock.</li>\n <li>The company is also ramping up its commercial viability, and notes that commercial (non-government) opportunities have expanded by 2.5x since the start of the year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd27526848512926d85a765e2355eb2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) is one of the largest individual tech stock holdings in my portfolio, and although the last couple of months have been a roller coaster ride of continued volatility, it's also one of the stocks I feel most comfortable holding for the long term.</p>\n<p>Palantir, a stock that trades in huge volumes and has frequent changes of sentiment in the market, continues to assert itself as one of the most innovative companies of our day and one of the surefire candidates to join the >$1 trillion \"mega cap\" club at some point in the very near future. The company just released Q1 earnings results that blew past internal and Wall Street expectations. And though Palantir shares are up slightly since the earnings release, the stock still remains down ~50% relative to all-time highs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cdafdb224d7f4a3352da9aca2357473\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>The <b>Palantir bullish thesis</b> is only becoming more and more clear with each passing quarter.</p>\n<p>I'm holding firmly onto my Palantir stock, and any opportunity I get to nibble more on Palantir at <$20 is one I'm taking. We'll cover the company's latest Q1 results and business trends in more detail shortly, but the key recent updates that continue to drive the bullish thesis for this stock are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Palantir continues to flex its muscles in the commercial segment.</b>Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Palantir notes in its Q1 earnings release that opportunities in the company's commercial space have expanded by ~2.5x since February, as shown in the chart below. Recall that Palantir estimates its total market opportunity at ~$120 billion, and with only ~$1.5 billion in consensus expected revenue for this year, the company has yet to scratch the surface of what its technology can be used for.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Figure 1. Palantir commercial opportunities commentary</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9cced98648c38c34e4df85cead3e7e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source: PalantirQ1 investor presentation</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. In Q1, the company hired 50 more salespeople, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir has also deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li>\n <li><b>No expectations of deceleration.</b>Palantir has guided to 30%+ revenue growth not only for this year (considering 49% y/y growth in Q1, 30% is really a lower bound for this year), but for the next four years as well. No other software company comes to mind that brazenly committed to a long-term goal of not decelerating, in spite of the fact that Palantir has already reached a sizable ~$1.5 billion revenue scale.</li>\n <li><b>Scaling profitably.</b>Palantir generated substantial adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margins in Q1, despite losses in the year-ago period. \"Growth at all costs\" is a common way to describe many software companies, but it does not apply to Palantir. The company seems to be able to have its cake and eat it too, driving massive growth and substantial operating leverage in tandem.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Q1 download</b></p>\n<p>Let's now cover some of the highlights in Palantir's most recent fiscal Q1 results in greater detail. The Q1 earnings summary is shown below:</p>\n<p>Figure 2. Palantir Q1 results</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b7116270a8d8aa8b99be1557b61ccc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"><span>Source: PalantirQ1 earnings release</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's revenue in Q1 soared 49% y/y to $341.2 million, beating the company's internal forecast for 45% y/y growth as well as Wall Street's revenue consensus of $332.3 million (also at +45% y/y).<i>We note that Palantir's revenue accelerated nine points relative to 40% y/y growth in Q4.</i></p>\n<p>The major driver of Palantir's growth continues to be its government arm, which generated $208 million in revenue, growing<i>76% y/y.</i>(61% of Palantir's revenue; over time I expect the government/commercial split to be more evenly balanced).</p>\n<p>Figure 3. Palantir government results</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2231953d667f81bc8304aafaed5309d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\"><span>Source: PalantirQ1 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>As Palantir investors are aware, the company continues to see tailwinds out of a 2018 court ruling that federal agencies, including the U.S. Army, had to evaluate \"commercially available\" technology solutions before attempting to develop them in-house. This has allowed Palantir to dramatically step up its Army business. Palantir has also signed a plethora of deals with various federal agencies (both in the U.S. and abroad) related to pandemic countermeasures. Another major Palantir win in Q1 is a $90 million five-year deal with National Nuclear Safety Administration.</p>\n<p>On the commercial end, while Palantir notes that recovery has been stronger in the U.S., Palantir's overseas markets are still struggling with the fallout of a limping economy. There are two positive points to note here, however: the first is that a later recovery for international markets means Palantir's growth can only get stronger from Q1 and beyond; the second is that the company notes the number of customers on active pilots has soared, setting a strong pipeline for the year ahead. Per CFO Dave Glazer's prepared remarks on theQ1 earnings call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n In addition to that revenue growth, we're also seeing substantial increases in leads and new opportunities, and we've more than doubled the number of active pilots in our commercial business since February.Abroad and particularly in Europe, we're seeing more muted commercial growth in countries that are still facing significant health and economic challenges stemming from the pandemic. But as Shyam mentioned, we're continuing to invest in these regions to assist in their recovery, and we expect our business will accelerate as these regions recover.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>As previously mentioned, Palantir has also made significant inroads on profitability. The company raised its adjusted gross margin profile by eight points to 83%, up from 75% in the year-ago Q1 - efficiencies that are driven by Palantir's larger scale. The company also generated $119.8 million of adjusted EBITDA at a commendable 35% margin this quarter, despite a $12.4 million loss (-5% margin) in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>Figure 4. Palantir adjusted EBITDA trends</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a061fd4905cc73a5551b6bdba97af908\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\"><span>Source: PalantirQ1 investor presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>Valuation and key takeaways</b></p>\n<p>While Palantir certainly isn't a cheap stock (and price is the main reason its stock has slumped over the past few months), I don't view valuation as a near-term obstacle for Palantir to rally.</p>\n<p>At Palantir's current share prices near $21, the company's market cap is $39.86 billion. After we net off the $2.34 billion of cash and $198.2 million of debt on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting <b>enterprise value is $37.72 billion.</b></p>\n<p>For the current year, Wall Street analysts are expecting $1.47 billion in revenue, representing 35% y/y growth. Considering Q1 is off to a 49% y/y start, and with Q2 guidance coming in at 43% y/y growth (with Palantir's trend of coming in a few points above its guidance, even this may be low), I'd say 35% y/y growth is probably 4-5 points too light. Regardless, at the consensus revenue mark, Palantir trades at <b>25.6x EV/FY21 revenue.</b></p>\n<p>That's certainly not cheap, but there are far more expensive stocks in the software sector (Snowflake (SNOW) at >50x forward revenue is one prominent example; Zscaler (ZS), at ~35x forward revenue, is another). And considering the fact that Palantir has a long growth runway ahead, with 30%+ growth expected over each of the next four years, I'd say Palantir has a great opportunity to \"ease into\" its high valuation over time.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line here:</b>I continue to view the opportunity to buy Palantir at ~50% off highs as a rare opportunity to buy one of the most innovative and fast-growing names in enterprise software. Stay long here and use any sharp near-term dips as buying opportunities.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Future Tech Mega-Cap On Sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Future Tech Mega-Cap On Sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 18:18 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429882-palantir-future-tech-mega-cap-on-sale><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares of Palantir still remain ~50% below all-time highs, reeling from a correction that started in February.\nFundamentally, the company continues to perform tremendously well. Growth is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429882-palantir-future-tech-mega-cap-on-sale\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429882-palantir-future-tech-mega-cap-on-sale","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1197810146","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir still remain ~50% below all-time highs, reeling from a correction that started in February.\nFundamentally, the company continues to perform tremendously well. Growth is clocking in just shy of ~50% y/y and exceeding internal targets.\nPalantir has also made huge strides in improving adjusted EBITDA profitability, removing a major obstacle for sentiment in the stock.\nThe company is also ramping up its commercial viability, and notes that commercial (non-government) opportunities have expanded by 2.5x since the start of the year.\n\nPhoto by Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir (PLTR) is one of the largest individual tech stock holdings in my portfolio, and although the last couple of months have been a roller coaster ride of continued volatility, it's also one of the stocks I feel most comfortable holding for the long term.\nPalantir, a stock that trades in huge volumes and has frequent changes of sentiment in the market, continues to assert itself as one of the most innovative companies of our day and one of the surefire candidates to join the >$1 trillion \"mega cap\" club at some point in the very near future. The company just released Q1 earnings results that blew past internal and Wall Street expectations. And though Palantir shares are up slightly since the earnings release, the stock still remains down ~50% relative to all-time highs.\nData byYCharts\nThe Palantir bullish thesis is only becoming more and more clear with each passing quarter.\nI'm holding firmly onto my Palantir stock, and any opportunity I get to nibble more on Palantir at <$20 is one I'm taking. We'll cover the company's latest Q1 results and business trends in more detail shortly, but the key recent updates that continue to drive the bullish thesis for this stock are:\n\nPalantir continues to flex its muscles in the commercial segment.Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Palantir notes in its Q1 earnings release that opportunities in the company's commercial space have expanded by ~2.5x since February, as shown in the chart below. Recall that Palantir estimates its total market opportunity at ~$120 billion, and with only ~$1.5 billion in consensus expected revenue for this year, the company has yet to scratch the surface of what its technology can be used for.\n\nFigure 1. Palantir commercial opportunities commentary\nSource: PalantirQ1 investor presentation\n\nStepping up go-to-market momentum.Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. In Q1, the company hired 50 more salespeople, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir has also deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.\nNo expectations of deceleration.Palantir has guided to 30%+ revenue growth not only for this year (considering 49% y/y growth in Q1, 30% is really a lower bound for this year), but for the next four years as well. No other software company comes to mind that brazenly committed to a long-term goal of not decelerating, in spite of the fact that Palantir has already reached a sizable ~$1.5 billion revenue scale.\nScaling profitably.Palantir generated substantial adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margins in Q1, despite losses in the year-ago period. \"Growth at all costs\" is a common way to describe many software companies, but it does not apply to Palantir. The company seems to be able to have its cake and eat it too, driving massive growth and substantial operating leverage in tandem.\n\nQ1 download\nLet's now cover some of the highlights in Palantir's most recent fiscal Q1 results in greater detail. The Q1 earnings summary is shown below:\nFigure 2. Palantir Q1 results\nSource: PalantirQ1 earnings release\nPalantir's revenue in Q1 soared 49% y/y to $341.2 million, beating the company's internal forecast for 45% y/y growth as well as Wall Street's revenue consensus of $332.3 million (also at +45% y/y).We note that Palantir's revenue accelerated nine points relative to 40% y/y growth in Q4.\nThe major driver of Palantir's growth continues to be its government arm, which generated $208 million in revenue, growing76% y/y.(61% of Palantir's revenue; over time I expect the government/commercial split to be more evenly balanced).\nFigure 3. Palantir government results\nSource: PalantirQ1 investor presentation\nAs Palantir investors are aware, the company continues to see tailwinds out of a 2018 court ruling that federal agencies, including the U.S. Army, had to evaluate \"commercially available\" technology solutions before attempting to develop them in-house. This has allowed Palantir to dramatically step up its Army business. Palantir has also signed a plethora of deals with various federal agencies (both in the U.S. and abroad) related to pandemic countermeasures. Another major Palantir win in Q1 is a $90 million five-year deal with National Nuclear Safety Administration.\nOn the commercial end, while Palantir notes that recovery has been stronger in the U.S., Palantir's overseas markets are still struggling with the fallout of a limping economy. There are two positive points to note here, however: the first is that a later recovery for international markets means Palantir's growth can only get stronger from Q1 and beyond; the second is that the company notes the number of customers on active pilots has soared, setting a strong pipeline for the year ahead. Per CFO Dave Glazer's prepared remarks on theQ1 earnings call:\n\n In addition to that revenue growth, we're also seeing substantial increases in leads and new opportunities, and we've more than doubled the number of active pilots in our commercial business since February.Abroad and particularly in Europe, we're seeing more muted commercial growth in countries that are still facing significant health and economic challenges stemming from the pandemic. But as Shyam mentioned, we're continuing to invest in these regions to assist in their recovery, and we expect our business will accelerate as these regions recover.\"\n\nAs previously mentioned, Palantir has also made significant inroads on profitability. The company raised its adjusted gross margin profile by eight points to 83%, up from 75% in the year-ago Q1 - efficiencies that are driven by Palantir's larger scale. The company also generated $119.8 million of adjusted EBITDA at a commendable 35% margin this quarter, despite a $12.4 million loss (-5% margin) in the year-ago quarter.\nFigure 4. Palantir adjusted EBITDA trends\nSource: PalantirQ1 investor presentation\nValuation and key takeaways\nWhile Palantir certainly isn't a cheap stock (and price is the main reason its stock has slumped over the past few months), I don't view valuation as a near-term obstacle for Palantir to rally.\nAt Palantir's current share prices near $21, the company's market cap is $39.86 billion. After we net off the $2.34 billion of cash and $198.2 million of debt on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $37.72 billion.\nFor the current year, Wall Street analysts are expecting $1.47 billion in revenue, representing 35% y/y growth. Considering Q1 is off to a 49% y/y start, and with Q2 guidance coming in at 43% y/y growth (with Palantir's trend of coming in a few points above its guidance, even this may be low), I'd say 35% y/y growth is probably 4-5 points too light. Regardless, at the consensus revenue mark, Palantir trades at 25.6x EV/FY21 revenue.\nThat's certainly not cheap, but there are far more expensive stocks in the software sector (Snowflake (SNOW) at >50x forward revenue is one prominent example; Zscaler (ZS), at ~35x forward revenue, is another). And considering the fact that Palantir has a long growth runway ahead, with 30%+ growth expected over each of the next four years, I'd say Palantir has a great opportunity to \"ease into\" its high valuation over time.\nThe bottom line here:I continue to view the opportunity to buy Palantir at ~50% off highs as a rare opportunity to buy one of the most innovative and fast-growing names in enterprise software. Stay long here and use any sharp near-term dips as buying opportunities.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":197362800,"gmtCreate":1621429828000,"gmtModify":1704357472156,"author":{"id":"3583934422208798","authorId":"3583934422208798","name":"kimochiWarui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4df0d4c35225ffce39e24ef66a82b46","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583934422208798","authorIdStr":"3583934422208798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197362800","repostId":"1197810146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
