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2021-06-01

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Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the i","content":"<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p>\n<p>But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p>\n<p>That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p>\n<p>Ferragu’s view is that the&nbsp;iPhone 12&nbsp;really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the&nbsp;iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p>\n<p>Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p>\n<p>Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last&nbsp;Friday have only&nbsp;inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-31 17:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135341835","content_text":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.\nBut looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.\nThat’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.\nFerragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”\nFerragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.\nDespite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}