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2021-06-18

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2021-06-02

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Meme stock AMC extends rally, jumps more than 20% as theater chain sells new shares to an investor

2021-05-27

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2021-05-27

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The theater company said it would use the funds for potential acquisitions, upgrading its theaters and deleveraging its balance sheet.Shares were up 22.6% when the market c","content":"<div>\n<p>Shares of AMC Entertainment surged again Tuesday after the theater chain sold more than 8 million shares to an investment firm, the latest in a series of capital raises for the struggling company ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/amc-shares-are-hopping-again-as-theater-chain-sells-new-stock-to-investor.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stock AMC extends rally, jumps more than 20% as theater chain sells new shares to an investor</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stock AMC extends rally, jumps more than 20% as theater chain sells new shares to an investor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 06:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/amc-shares-are-hopping-again-as-theater-chain-sells-new-stock-to-investor.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of AMC Entertainment surged again Tuesday after the theater chain sold more than 8 million shares to an investment firm, the latest in a series of capital raises for the struggling company ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/amc-shares-are-hopping-again-as-theater-chain-sells-new-stock-to-investor.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/amc-shares-are-hopping-again-as-theater-chain-sells-new-stock-to-investor.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"2140491365","content_text":"Shares of AMC Entertainment surged again Tuesday after the theater chain sold more than 8 million shares to an investment firm, the latest in a series of capital raises for the struggling company turned meme stock.AMC said in a securities filing that it raised $230.5 million through a stock sale to Mudrick Capital Management. The theater company said it would use the funds for potential acquisitions, upgrading its theaters and deleveraging its balance sheet.Shares were up 22.6% when the market closed.On Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg News reported that Mudrick had sold all of its new shares in AMC. The stock fell from its highs of the day following the report.AMC’s business was effectively halted during the pandemic, with movie theaters shut in most of the country for months and major studios delaying releases during the pandemic. However, the stock becamea favorite of traders on Redditand has seen wild swings in recent months.The sharesdoubled last weekon incredibly high volume as the speculative activity by retail traders driven by message board chats ramped back up once again.The company has taken advantage of those price surges by selling additional shares to raise cash. The stock is up more than 1,000% year to date.“Given that AMC is raising hundreds of millions of dollars, this is an extremely positive result for our shareholders,” CEO and President Adam Aron said in a filing. “It was achieved through the issuance of only 8.5 million shares, representing less than 1.7% of our issued share capital and only a small portion of our typical daily trading volume.”The dramatic price swings could also be due to ashort squeezein the stock, which is caused by traders who have bet against the stock buying shares to limit their losses. Roughly 20% of the floated shares of the company are sold short, according to S3 Partners.AMC has around $5 billion in debt and needed to defer $450 million in lease repayments as its revenue largely dried up during the pandemic. Theaters were closed for months to help stop the spread of the virus, and when the company reopened its doors, few consumers felt comfortable attending screenings, and movie studios held back new releases.Now, as vaccination rates rise and the number of coronavirus cases decline, consumer confidence in returning to movie theaters has spiked. Not to mention, studios are finally releasing new content.Over the weekend, John Krasinski’s “A Quiet Place Part II,” the sequel to his 2018 blockbuster, garnered $48.4 million over Friday, Saturday and Sunday, the highest three-day haul of any film release during the pandemic.For the full four-day Memorial Day weekend, the North American box office tallied nearly $100 million in ticket sales.Still, while initial box-office receipts are promising, fundamental elements of the movie theater business have changed in the last year, including theater capacity, shared release dates with streaming services and the number of days that movies play in theaters.The securities filing from AMC, which closed Friday with a $11.8 billion market cap, also has a risk warning for investors: “Our market capitalization, as implied by various trading prices, currently reflects valuations that diverge significantly from those seen prior to recent volatility and that are significantly higher than our market capitalization immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to the extent these valuations reflect trading dynamics unrelated to our financial performance or prospects, purchasers of our Class A common stock could incur substantial losses if there are declines in market prices driven by a return to earlier valuations.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132504478,"gmtCreate":1622096598794,"gmtModify":1704179397150,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132504478","repostId":"1173192682","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132504326,"gmtCreate":1622096570165,"gmtModify":1704179396504,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132504326","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":113184109,"gmtCreate":1622598200301,"gmtModify":1704187042020,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113184109","repostId":"2140491365","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166942566,"gmtCreate":1623989767455,"gmtModify":1703825871628,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166942566","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132504478,"gmtCreate":1622096598794,"gmtModify":1704179397150,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132504478","repostId":"1173192682","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173192682","pubTimestamp":1622094560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173192682?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities And Threats","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173192682","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I explore Apple using a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats  model.Strengths include the ecosystem, brand recognition and customer loyalty, and management and culture.Weaknesses include overreliance on iPhone revenue, declining global smartphone market share, and few successful product innovations over the last decade.Opportunities include AR & VR, Wearables market, and Autonomous Vehicles.Threats include litigation over App Store fees, smartphones and tablets becoming commodities,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I explore Apple using a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) model.</li>\n <li>Strengths include the ecosystem, brand recognition and customer loyalty, and management and culture.</li>\n <li>Weaknesses include overreliance on iPhone revenue, declining global smartphone market share, and few successful product innovations over the last decade.</li>\n <li>Opportunities include AR &amp; VR, Wearables market, and Autonomous Vehicles.</li>\n <li>Threats include litigation over App Store fees, smartphones and tablets becoming commodities, and international economic and political risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c49eaff217b8bef82710b9d6fcce4d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Ruslanshug/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I have a bachelor's degree in Finance and the other day I was thinking about my college courses. One of the projects that came to mind was a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. I remembered it was a project I enjoyed and a good way to summarize a company.</p>\n<p>I decided to do the project again, with none other than the biggest company in the world, Apple (AAPL). Due to the size of Apple, it has many SWOTs; therefore, I’ll cover the three that I think are most important from each category to make an assessment on the company.</p>\n<p><b>Strengths</b></p>\n<p><b>1) The Ecosystem</b></p>\n<p>This one probably won’t come as a surprise to those familiar with Apple (likely everybody). If you have one Apple product, it’s likely you have multiple Apple products and services. I mean, who do you know with just the iPhone and no other Apple products or services? And once you buy two or more Apple devices, there’s really no going back. The ecosystem is successful due to the ease of use of products and how well they integrate with each other and the services of the company.</p>\n<p>One of the most recent additions to the ecosystem and one of the most important is the M1 Macs. Not only does Apple not have to rely on Intel (INTC) anymore for processors but the performance and battery life is much better. The M1 Mac has been labeled as “reset” for the laptop industry where competitors need to recalibrate to keep up with Apple. That’s innovation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c244e2d7b52b7593c70b160c7533c\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"740\"></p>\n<p>However, Apple hasn’t really been known for innovative products over the last decade except of course theAirPods and I’d argue the M1 processor. So how does it keep people in the ecosystem without truly being innovative? One way is by killing its competition.</p>\n<p>A recent example is Apple AirTag. They allow you to track devices that you place the AirTag in/on. But Bluetooth trackers are not new; companies including Tile have already made them. Nonetheless, AirTags have a massive advantage because their network isn’t just using the Tile app, it’s all the stuff on Apple’s Find My network (iPhones, iPads, Macs, etc.). Apple essentially plugged a feature into the iPhone and killed its competition. And this isnot the first timeand it won't be the last. Ask yourself, what are you going to use? A device that seamlessly integrates with your other Apple devices or go out of your way to buy a Tile Bluetooth tracker? I know my answer! That is truly the power of the ecosystem.</p>\n<p><b>2) Brand Recognition &amp; Customer Loyalty</b></p>\n<p>Apple is ranked as the world’s most valuable brand by multiple sources like&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;and&nbsp;Brand Finance. No matter what corner of the world you are in, most people know about Apple. Apple is recognized world-wide but also demands loyalty due to the way it sells its products. Simon Sinek made the concept of starting with 'why' instead of 'what' popular through his Golden Circle concept. I usually start with coffee, but this makes more sense. If you’re not familiar with the concept, I recommend you&nbsp;take a look.</p>\n<p>From Apple’s famous&nbsp;“Think Different”&nbsp;campaign to its recent&nbsp;App Tracking Transparency ad, Apple is starting with why. They are not selling products but ideas:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>They challenge the status quo and believe in thinking differently. Don’t you want to think differently?</p></li>\n <li><p>They are proponents of privacy in a world where everyone wants to track you. Don’t you want privacy?</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>But guess what? \"Privacy. That's iPhone.\" And once you buy an iPhone, the ecosystem pulls you into the rest of the products and services. Do they have the best phone product in the market?Not necessarily. Does it matter? Absolutely not. There’s no doubt the company’s customers are the&nbsp;most loyal&nbsp;in the industry and with more privacy features, I believe Apple will attract even more users to its ecosystem.</p>\n<p><b>3) Management and Culture</b></p>\n<p>It was hard to choose the 3rd biggest strength. I could have easily chosen the exceptional balance sheet or efficient R&amp;D spend but I believe the 3rd biggest strength is the management and culture of the company. Nothing is possible if the management and the culture of a company are not good enough.</p>\n<p>There’s no doubt Steve Jobs was a visionary leader but you have to give credit to Tim Cook. Imagine how hard it must have been to take over the company after Jobs. Under his leadership, Apple has transformed into a juggernaut not only focusing on the iPhone but expanding into Wearables, Services, and more all while building a strong corporate culture. There’s a reason the company is consistently ranked one of the best places to work year after year (#31 in 2021).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a80d0b9592974177a59c29c1235700b\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"175\"></p>\n<p><b>Weaknesses:</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Overreliance on iPhone Revenue</b></p>\n<p>Apple made $274B in revenue in 2020. However, 50% of that was from iPhone sales. Apple’s overreliance on its iPhone sales is one of its biggest weaknesses. It's hard to say that when the company made $137B in revenue from iPhones but the iPhone has particular sales cycles and revenue can be sporadic. If for some reason (economic, political, social, etc.) Apple can’t sell as many phones in a particular quarter or year, it will likely have a material impact on results.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e75baadac7faf416acba2cf71754a87\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"394\"><span>Source - Author (using 10-K data)</span></p>\n<p>The company has recognized this over time and is changing. As I mentioned earlier, Apple has turned into a juggernaut by introducing other products over time and particularly through its Services and Wearables, Home, and Accessories categories, both of which now represent 20% and 11% of total revenue in 2020. And both are still showing healthy growth with Services growing 16% Year over Year (YoY) in 2020 and Wearables, Home, and Accessories growing 25% YoY.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081a2ce7a02efa984236c69a0aa7c916\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Source - Author (Using company filings)*Other Growth is equivalent to Wearables, Home, and Accessories</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Declining Global Smartphone Market Share</b></p>\n<p>Over the last 3 years, Apple’s global smartphone market share has stayed relatively flat while other carriers continue to take share. China is the world’s largest smartphone market and Apple has competed successfully with other carriers. However, as the market has matured, that has changed.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9be4fe463892bc557a1501cef652fce\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"696\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Apple’s revenue growth continues to slow down in China due to rivals like Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo who are able to manufacture high quality smartphones at cheaper prices than Apple. Not only that, but consumer preferences continue to evolve with many Chinese consumers preferring local brands to Apple. Whether this is a longer term trend or gets better depends on Apple's China strategy moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298d033b8d4f752c80de9113a0e7b983\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source - Author (using company filings),Revenue in Billions</span></p>\n<p><b>3) Few Successful Product Innovations Introduced Over the Past Decade</b></p>\n<p>Apple has been considered one of the most innovative technology companies in the world but should it still be? I don’t particularly think so. At least, not when it comes to product innovation. The company has been known for releasing breakthrough products like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. But over the last decade, only two innovative products come to mind:AirPods and the most recent M1 processor.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, innovation isn’t just about product innovation. It can come in many forms. Some may consider what Apple has done with its ecosystem, services, or the recent App Tracking Transparency feature innovative. However, it’s still hard to deny that Apple needs to do more for product innovation to stay successful especially as hardware products become more commoditized.</p>\n<p><b>Opportunities</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Augmented and Virtual Reality</b></p>\n<p>There is no doubt Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR and VR) markets are poised to grow over the next decade. ARK Invest even added Virtual worlds as a new idea in their annual&nbsp;Big Ideas&nbsp;publication for 2021. Although VR is an opportunity for Apple, AR is even bigger. ARK is forecasting the AR smartphone and glasses market to reach approximately $130B in revenue by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed76f367c15fab01bde88dbaeafc48fd\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"473\"></p>\n<p>Apple currently has the world’s largest&nbsp;AR platform. The company has one of the best opportunities to capture this market with the introduction of the Apple headset and eventually Apple glasses. There have been&nbsp;rumours&nbsp;of the headset release sometime in 2022 and glasses release by 2025. It’s hard to say when this will happen, but it will with Apple touting AR and VR for a long time. Tim Cook believes “AR and ML will be key to delivering the right information to the right person at the right time.”</p>\n<p>There is tremendous competition in this space with the likes of Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Snapchat (SNAP), and others all focusing on AR and VR in one way or another. For example, Snapchat recently announced&nbsp;new Spectacles&nbsp;and&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;AR display maker WaveOptics for $500M plus. Apple needs to be diligent about taking on this opportunity, but I believe they hold the advantage due to their ability to integrate the headset and glasses with their ecosystem of products and services.</p>\n<p><b>2) Wearables Market</b></p>\n<p>According to research done in September 2020 by IDC, the wearables market will grow at a compounded annual growth rate(CAGR)of 12.4% through 2024 with hearables leading the way and the watch coming in second.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96167a993b351734c5e1af39de9a2b2\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"316\"></p>\n<p>Here is how 2020 actually&nbsp;performed:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Total shipments grew 28.4% to reach 445M YoY.</p></li>\n <li><p>Apple shipped 151M of all wearables with growth of 36% YoY.</p></li>\n <li><p>Apple market share of wearables reached 34% in 2020, increasing ~2 pts YoY.</p></li>\n <li><p>The second largest competitor (Xiaomi) has a market share of 11.5%.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple is clearly the leader in this category and is growing at a brisk pace. They should continue to dominate this space and grow with the market especially as demand for&nbsp;health-related wearables&nbsp;continues to increase.</p>\n<p><b>3) Autonomous Vehicles?</b></p>\n<p>Although Apple’s potential venture into autonomous vehicles has been the buzz, I chose to put it last in the opportunities categories. Why? Well nobody knows if Apple will actually build an electric vehicle on its own, partner with a manufacturing company to provide software, or serve as a mobility company. Let’s explore each a bit further and what might be the best option.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Apple builds its own electric vehicle: this would represent what Apple does best - using its own hardware and software and integrating the two to create an ecosystem. However, it could take decades to build an electric vehicle that is safe to use, requiring manufacturing, testing, and servicing.</p></li>\n <li><p>Apple partners with another manufacturer to provide software: there were&nbsp;initial reports&nbsp;of Apple partnering with Hyundai and Kia and now with LG. If Apple does partner with a car manufacturer that could significantly shorten the process of Apple bringing its own car to market. However, will other manufacturers let Apple control their manufactured product? We’ll have to see. There’s no doubt this is Apple’s bread and butter with the company already designing the types of microchips and sensors needed for autonomous vehicles.</p></li>\n <li><p>Apple serves as a mobility company: Self-driving taxi services are the future but arguably there’s no clear leader yet. The competition is intense with the likes of Google’s (GOOGL) Waymo and Amazon’s (AMZN) Zoox. However, this could be a&nbsp;realistic option&nbsp;for Apple to create something that it controls with the help of another automaker.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>No matter what route Apple takes, it’s hard to deny the opportunity ahead. We’ll have to wait and see if Apple can take advantage.</p>\n<p><b>Threats</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Litigation over App Store Fees</b></p>\n<p>Any Apple follower will know the company just wrapped up its trial against Epic Games over the 15% or 30% fee charged to app developers. No one knows whether the ruling will be in Apple’s favor or Epic Games. But it is fairly certain any decision will likely be challenged by either Apple or Epic Games and the issue could take a long time to resolve. If Apple is essentially ruled a monopoly, it could mean a couple of things:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Loss of revenue if Apple loses out on the 15% or 30% commission. The cost of running the App Store could outweigh the profit.</p></li>\n <li><p>Apple lowers the commission. It’s hard to say what Apple would lower to if it had to, but it would have to be low enough to keep developers happy and high enough to keep shareholders happy.</p></li>\n <li><p>The company might have to enable third-party payment systems through the app store. They have argued they don’t allow that due to privacy and other concerns but this could be a potential possibility. Once again, Apple would miss out on its usual commission if users elect to use the third-party payment system. Apple could lose its users’ trust if anything goes wrong related to privacy.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>In addition to the above, there’s a couple of&nbsp;other possible outcomes. Whatever happens with the trial, it doesn’t seem like this is something that will go away easily. Apple will likely have to consider changes at some point.</p>\n<p><b>2) Smartphone and Tablets = Commodities</b></p>\n<p>What’s the biggest difference between Apple phones and tablets compared to other phones and tablets today? Software. To me, it’s the only major differentiator. Most of the other phones and tablets have similar or even better hardware than Apple phones but the iOS operating system and the ecosystem that comes with it is what differentiates the iPhone from other phones.</p>\n<p>In the U.S., the mobile operating system market is led by iOS with 59% market share. However, the global mobile operating system market is dominated by Android with 72.2% of market share as of April 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c828626f692e7156156f7072bfc6d721\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"148\"></p>\n<p>If Android can close the quality and user experience gap with iOS, consumers could shift preferences to Android phones. However, that is a big if as the “walled gardens” of Apple are not easy to climb.</p>\n<p><b>3) International Economic and Political Risk</b></p>\n<p>To be honest, it was hard to come up with a 3rd major threat. The company doesn’t face many. However, Apple earned the majority (55%) of its 2020 revenue ($274B) from outside the U.S. Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific made up ~30% of the company’s revenue. With these countries comes greater economic and political risk than the likes of the U.S. and Europe. If anything negative were to happen, it could certainly have a sizable impact on Apple’s revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40dbd2f627cf0a07bafb5f5dcaafc8a6\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>Source - Author (using company filings)</span></p>\n<p><b>Wrapping Up</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12873c611dd2dbf1680800d941a863\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I believe the strengths and opportunities outweigh the weaknesses and threats of Apple. To me, the company should be a cornerstone position in any long-term portfolio. Warren Buffett recently said trimming his Apple stake was&nbsp;probably a mistake. However, he still has&nbsp;~40%&nbsp;of his wealth in Apple. If one of the greatest investors of our time is happy holding Apple with such concentration, what's stopping you?</p>\n<p>Let me know in the comments what your view is, notably the following aspects:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Do you think the strengths and opportunities of Apple outweigh the weaknesses and threats?</p></li>\n <li><p>Do you agree with the SWOTs chosen? If not, what would you change/add?</p></li>\n <li><p>Is there another company you’d like to see a SWOT analysis for?</p></li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities And Threats</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities And Threats\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-27 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431295-apple-strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI explore Apple using a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) model.\nStrengths include the ecosystem, brand recognition and customer loyalty, and management and culture.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431295-apple-strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431295-apple-strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1173192682","content_text":"Summary\n\nI explore Apple using a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) model.\nStrengths include the ecosystem, brand recognition and customer loyalty, and management and culture.\nWeaknesses include overreliance on iPhone revenue, declining global smartphone market share, and few successful product innovations over the last decade.\nOpportunities include AR & VR, Wearables market, and Autonomous Vehicles.\nThreats include litigation over App Store fees, smartphones and tablets becoming commodities, and international economic and political risk.\n\nPhoto by Ruslanshug/iStock via Getty Images\nI have a bachelor's degree in Finance and the other day I was thinking about my college courses. One of the projects that came to mind was a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. I remembered it was a project I enjoyed and a good way to summarize a company.\nI decided to do the project again, with none other than the biggest company in the world, Apple (AAPL). Due to the size of Apple, it has many SWOTs; therefore, I’ll cover the three that I think are most important from each category to make an assessment on the company.\nStrengths\n1) The Ecosystem\nThis one probably won’t come as a surprise to those familiar with Apple (likely everybody). If you have one Apple product, it’s likely you have multiple Apple products and services. I mean, who do you know with just the iPhone and no other Apple products or services? And once you buy two or more Apple devices, there’s really no going back. The ecosystem is successful due to the ease of use of products and how well they integrate with each other and the services of the company.\nOne of the most recent additions to the ecosystem and one of the most important is the M1 Macs. Not only does Apple not have to rely on Intel (INTC) anymore for processors but the performance and battery life is much better. The M1 Mac has been labeled as “reset” for the laptop industry where competitors need to recalibrate to keep up with Apple. That’s innovation.\n\nHowever, Apple hasn’t really been known for innovative products over the last decade except of course theAirPods and I’d argue the M1 processor. So how does it keep people in the ecosystem without truly being innovative? One way is by killing its competition.\nA recent example is Apple AirTag. They allow you to track devices that you place the AirTag in/on. But Bluetooth trackers are not new; companies including Tile have already made them. Nonetheless, AirTags have a massive advantage because their network isn’t just using the Tile app, it’s all the stuff on Apple’s Find My network (iPhones, iPads, Macs, etc.). Apple essentially plugged a feature into the iPhone and killed its competition. And this isnot the first timeand it won't be the last. Ask yourself, what are you going to use? A device that seamlessly integrates with your other Apple devices or go out of your way to buy a Tile Bluetooth tracker? I know my answer! That is truly the power of the ecosystem.\n2) Brand Recognition & Customer Loyalty\nApple is ranked as the world’s most valuable brand by multiple sources like Forbes and Brand Finance. No matter what corner of the world you are in, most people know about Apple. Apple is recognized world-wide but also demands loyalty due to the way it sells its products. Simon Sinek made the concept of starting with 'why' instead of 'what' popular through his Golden Circle concept. I usually start with coffee, but this makes more sense. If you’re not familiar with the concept, I recommend you take a look.\nFrom Apple’s famous “Think Different” campaign to its recent App Tracking Transparency ad, Apple is starting with why. They are not selling products but ideas:\n\nThey challenge the status quo and believe in thinking differently. Don’t you want to think differently?\nThey are proponents of privacy in a world where everyone wants to track you. Don’t you want privacy?\n\nBut guess what? \"Privacy. That's iPhone.\" And once you buy an iPhone, the ecosystem pulls you into the rest of the products and services. Do they have the best phone product in the market?Not necessarily. Does it matter? Absolutely not. There’s no doubt the company’s customers are the most loyal in the industry and with more privacy features, I believe Apple will attract even more users to its ecosystem.\n3) Management and Culture\nIt was hard to choose the 3rd biggest strength. I could have easily chosen the exceptional balance sheet or efficient R&D spend but I believe the 3rd biggest strength is the management and culture of the company. Nothing is possible if the management and the culture of a company are not good enough.\nThere’s no doubt Steve Jobs was a visionary leader but you have to give credit to Tim Cook. Imagine how hard it must have been to take over the company after Jobs. Under his leadership, Apple has transformed into a juggernaut not only focusing on the iPhone but expanding into Wearables, Services, and more all while building a strong corporate culture. There’s a reason the company is consistently ranked one of the best places to work year after year (#31 in 2021).\n\nWeaknesses:\n1) Overreliance on iPhone Revenue\nApple made $274B in revenue in 2020. However, 50% of that was from iPhone sales. Apple’s overreliance on its iPhone sales is one of its biggest weaknesses. It's hard to say that when the company made $137B in revenue from iPhones but the iPhone has particular sales cycles and revenue can be sporadic. If for some reason (economic, political, social, etc.) Apple can’t sell as many phones in a particular quarter or year, it will likely have a material impact on results.\nSource - Author (using 10-K data)\nThe company has recognized this over time and is changing. As I mentioned earlier, Apple has turned into a juggernaut by introducing other products over time and particularly through its Services and Wearables, Home, and Accessories categories, both of which now represent 20% and 11% of total revenue in 2020. And both are still showing healthy growth with Services growing 16% Year over Year (YoY) in 2020 and Wearables, Home, and Accessories growing 25% YoY.\nSource - Author (Using company filings)*Other Growth is equivalent to Wearables, Home, and Accessories\n2) Declining Global Smartphone Market Share\nOver the last 3 years, Apple’s global smartphone market share has stayed relatively flat while other carriers continue to take share. China is the world’s largest smartphone market and Apple has competed successfully with other carriers. However, as the market has matured, that has changed.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nApple’s revenue growth continues to slow down in China due to rivals like Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo who are able to manufacture high quality smartphones at cheaper prices than Apple. Not only that, but consumer preferences continue to evolve with many Chinese consumers preferring local brands to Apple. Whether this is a longer term trend or gets better depends on Apple's China strategy moving forward.\nSource - Author (using company filings),Revenue in Billions\n3) Few Successful Product Innovations Introduced Over the Past Decade\nApple has been considered one of the most innovative technology companies in the world but should it still be? I don’t particularly think so. At least, not when it comes to product innovation. The company has been known for releasing breakthrough products like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. But over the last decade, only two innovative products come to mind:AirPods and the most recent M1 processor.\nNonetheless, innovation isn’t just about product innovation. It can come in many forms. Some may consider what Apple has done with its ecosystem, services, or the recent App Tracking Transparency feature innovative. However, it’s still hard to deny that Apple needs to do more for product innovation to stay successful especially as hardware products become more commoditized.\nOpportunities\n1) Augmented and Virtual Reality\nThere is no doubt Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR and VR) markets are poised to grow over the next decade. ARK Invest even added Virtual worlds as a new idea in their annual Big Ideas publication for 2021. Although VR is an opportunity for Apple, AR is even bigger. ARK is forecasting the AR smartphone and glasses market to reach approximately $130B in revenue by 2030.\n\nApple currently has the world’s largest AR platform. The company has one of the best opportunities to capture this market with the introduction of the Apple headset and eventually Apple glasses. There have been rumours of the headset release sometime in 2022 and glasses release by 2025. It’s hard to say when this will happen, but it will with Apple touting AR and VR for a long time. Tim Cook believes “AR and ML will be key to delivering the right information to the right person at the right time.”\nThere is tremendous competition in this space with the likes of Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Snapchat (SNAP), and others all focusing on AR and VR in one way or another. For example, Snapchat recently announced new Spectacles and acquired AR display maker WaveOptics for $500M plus. Apple needs to be diligent about taking on this opportunity, but I believe they hold the advantage due to their ability to integrate the headset and glasses with their ecosystem of products and services.\n2) Wearables Market\nAccording to research done in September 2020 by IDC, the wearables market will grow at a compounded annual growth rate(CAGR)of 12.4% through 2024 with hearables leading the way and the watch coming in second.\n\nHere is how 2020 actually performed:\n\nTotal shipments grew 28.4% to reach 445M YoY.\nApple shipped 151M of all wearables with growth of 36% YoY.\nApple market share of wearables reached 34% in 2020, increasing ~2 pts YoY.\nThe second largest competitor (Xiaomi) has a market share of 11.5%.\n\nApple is clearly the leader in this category and is growing at a brisk pace. They should continue to dominate this space and grow with the market especially as demand for health-related wearables continues to increase.\n3) Autonomous Vehicles?\nAlthough Apple’s potential venture into autonomous vehicles has been the buzz, I chose to put it last in the opportunities categories. Why? Well nobody knows if Apple will actually build an electric vehicle on its own, partner with a manufacturing company to provide software, or serve as a mobility company. Let’s explore each a bit further and what might be the best option.\n\nApple builds its own electric vehicle: this would represent what Apple does best - using its own hardware and software and integrating the two to create an ecosystem. However, it could take decades to build an electric vehicle that is safe to use, requiring manufacturing, testing, and servicing.\nApple partners with another manufacturer to provide software: there were initial reports of Apple partnering with Hyundai and Kia and now with LG. If Apple does partner with a car manufacturer that could significantly shorten the process of Apple bringing its own car to market. However, will other manufacturers let Apple control their manufactured product? We’ll have to see. There’s no doubt this is Apple’s bread and butter with the company already designing the types of microchips and sensors needed for autonomous vehicles.\nApple serves as a mobility company: Self-driving taxi services are the future but arguably there’s no clear leader yet. The competition is intense with the likes of Google’s (GOOGL) Waymo and Amazon’s (AMZN) Zoox. However, this could be a realistic option for Apple to create something that it controls with the help of another automaker.\n\nNo matter what route Apple takes, it’s hard to deny the opportunity ahead. We’ll have to wait and see if Apple can take advantage.\nThreats\n1) Litigation over App Store Fees\nAny Apple follower will know the company just wrapped up its trial against Epic Games over the 15% or 30% fee charged to app developers. No one knows whether the ruling will be in Apple’s favor or Epic Games. But it is fairly certain any decision will likely be challenged by either Apple or Epic Games and the issue could take a long time to resolve. If Apple is essentially ruled a monopoly, it could mean a couple of things:\n\nLoss of revenue if Apple loses out on the 15% or 30% commission. The cost of running the App Store could outweigh the profit.\nApple lowers the commission. It’s hard to say what Apple would lower to if it had to, but it would have to be low enough to keep developers happy and high enough to keep shareholders happy.\nThe company might have to enable third-party payment systems through the app store. They have argued they don’t allow that due to privacy and other concerns but this could be a potential possibility. Once again, Apple would miss out on its usual commission if users elect to use the third-party payment system. Apple could lose its users’ trust if anything goes wrong related to privacy.\n\nIn addition to the above, there’s a couple of other possible outcomes. Whatever happens with the trial, it doesn’t seem like this is something that will go away easily. Apple will likely have to consider changes at some point.\n2) Smartphone and Tablets = Commodities\nWhat’s the biggest difference between Apple phones and tablets compared to other phones and tablets today? Software. To me, it’s the only major differentiator. Most of the other phones and tablets have similar or even better hardware than Apple phones but the iOS operating system and the ecosystem that comes with it is what differentiates the iPhone from other phones.\nIn the U.S., the mobile operating system market is led by iOS with 59% market share. However, the global mobile operating system market is dominated by Android with 72.2% of market share as of April 2021.\n\nIf Android can close the quality and user experience gap with iOS, consumers could shift preferences to Android phones. However, that is a big if as the “walled gardens” of Apple are not easy to climb.\n3) International Economic and Political Risk\nTo be honest, it was hard to come up with a 3rd major threat. The company doesn’t face many. However, Apple earned the majority (55%) of its 2020 revenue ($274B) from outside the U.S. Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific made up ~30% of the company’s revenue. With these countries comes greater economic and political risk than the likes of the U.S. and Europe. If anything negative were to happen, it could certainly have a sizable impact on Apple’s revenue.\nSource - Author (using company filings)\nWrapping Up\n\nI believe the strengths and opportunities outweigh the weaknesses and threats of Apple. To me, the company should be a cornerstone position in any long-term portfolio. Warren Buffett recently said trimming his Apple stake was probably a mistake. However, he still has ~40% of his wealth in Apple. If one of the greatest investors of our time is happy holding Apple with such concentration, what's stopping you?\nLet me know in the comments what your view is, notably the following aspects:\n\nDo you think the strengths and opportunities of Apple outweigh the weaknesses and threats?\nDo you agree with the SWOTs chosen? If not, what would you change/add?\nIs there another company you’d like to see a SWOT analysis for?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132504326,"gmtCreate":1622096570165,"gmtModify":1704179396504,"author":{"id":"3584444385075679","authorId":"3584444385075679","name":"Park357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132504326","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}