Dorcus personal page - To The Moon

Dorcus

Dorcus

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01-26

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2022-12-12

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2022-12-05

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2022-11-25

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2022-11-24

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2022-11-23

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2022-11-22

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2022-11-21

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2022-11-19

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2022-11-18

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2022-05-18

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2022-05-09

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2022-02-07

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18:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5月卖出魔咒显现，美股将跌到何时？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122098756","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。</p><p>历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春季躁动”上涨过程中的估值泡沫,而这种回调往往在每个半年结束前显得尤为剧烈。半年结束后，市场进入了半年报披露周期，而此前在调整过程中离场的场外活跃资金，很可能借助半年报增长的预期，发动一波“七翻身”的上涨行情。这样的循环，就构成了“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法。</p><p>华尔街也同样有一句类似的谚语，叫“Sell in May and go away”。意思是在五月份卖出，然后离开股市。“五月魔咒”最早刊登于1935年5月10日的《金融时报》，此后一直在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>广为流传。虽然看起来有些玄学，但是根据历史统计，11月至次年4月的持有收益率显著大于在5月至10月这半年的持有收益率。而近期股市的动荡表明“5月魔咒”或将再次上演。</p><p><b>股市暴跌</b></p><p>今年年初至今，全球40大主要股指中，仅有六个股指处于上涨，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数和巴西BOVESPA指数涨幅几乎可以忽略不计，其余34大股指均处于下跌状态。跌幅最大的当属深陷俄乌冲突的俄罗斯股市，跌幅达30%以上，熊冠全球。紧随其后的是深证成份指数下跌27.77%和纳斯达克综合指数 下跌22.37%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>全球主要股指今年表现，来源：Investing.com</p><p>从4月份开始，美股突然加速下跌。纳斯达克综合指数 在4月下跌了13.26%，而且跌势延续到了5月，上周五更是创下2020年以来最低收盘水平，周线连续第五周下跌，创2012年第四季以来持续时间最长的周线跌势；美国标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了8.8%，目前已经连续五周下跌，创自2011年第二季以来持续时间最长的周线下跌；道琼斯工业平均指数 4月下跌4.91%表现稍好。</p><p><b>美联储加息利剑高悬</b></p><p>5月初，美联储刚刚宣布加息50个基点至0.75%-1.00%区间，这是2000年以来首次大幅加息50个基点，但是与市场预期的加息75个基点相比并不算激进；同时宣布6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，与市场预期的缩表进度也有差距。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示75个基点的加息幅度并不值得考虑，未来几次会议加息50个基点是选项，可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点。FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。</p><p>美联储的行动和鲍威尔的发言打消了市场激进紧缩的预期，美股当日大幅上涨。但是仅仅一天之后，市场激进加息预期重燃，美股重挫。</p><p>从美股暴涨暴跌的走势来看，市场对于美联储激进加息的恐慌犹存。根据Investing.com的利率观测器，美联储在6月加息75基点的概率达到82.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储利率观测器，来源：Investing.com</p><p>本轮美股暴跌的首要元凶就是美联储的紧缩政策。自去年转向鹰派以来，美联储已经结束了刺激措施并连续加息两次，加息幅度从25基点上升到了50基点，且不排除未来加息75基点，并启动了缩减资产负债表的计划。不管美联储如何说，抛开预期管理不谈，美联储的实际行动却是越来越激进的。</p><p>这与美国失控的通胀密不可分，本周美国将再次公布CPI和PPI数据，若出现通胀见顶的信号，美联储的紧缩进程或将放缓，美股或迎来喘息之机；若通胀继续高企，5月魔咒将再次上演。</p><p>此外，美国经济出现衰退的风险也在加大。美国今年第一季国内生产总值（GDP）意外地萎缩1.4％，此前收益率也一度出现倒挂的情况，这对股市也暗藏危机。</p><p><b>5月卖出策略或对A股更加有效</b></p><p>由于美股已经持续了十多年的牛市，虽然多数时候夏季股市的表现不如春季，但是美股的持续牛市会令投资者错过一部分涨幅，导致整体收益下降。据统计，使用该策略的话，标普500指数最大回撤会从52%下降至32%，但年化收益率从8.78%下降至6.98%。也就是说，该策略虽然降低了整体回撤，但绝对收益也被拉低了。</p><p>相对美股，5月卖出策略对偏向震荡的A股效果更加明显。据统计，使用该策略的话，最大回撤会从70 %下降至41%，年化收益率从3.48%提升至8.59%。</p><p><b>尾声</b></p><p>在牛市当中，5月份卖出的策略可能并不理想。但是在危机四伏的当下，暂时的离场将是最稳妥的选择。或许在6月7月美联储激进加息暂缓之后，美股利空出尽或将迎来机会窗口。</p><p>Sell in May and go away（5月卖出并离开）的下一句则是but remember to come back in September（但别忘了在九月回来）。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5月卖出魔咒显现，美股将跌到何时？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5月卖出魔咒显现，美股将跌到何时？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 18:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。</p><p>历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春季躁动”上涨过程中的估值泡沫,而这种回调往往在每个半年结束前显得尤为剧烈。半年结束后，市场进入了半年报披露周期，而此前在调整过程中离场的场外活跃资金，很可能借助半年报增长的预期，发动一波“七翻身”的上涨行情。这样的循环，就构成了“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法。</p><p>华尔街也同样有一句类似的谚语，叫“Sell in May and go away”。意思是在五月份卖出，然后离开股市。“五月魔咒”最早刊登于1935年5月10日的《金融时报》，此后一直在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>广为流传。虽然看起来有些玄学，但是根据历史统计，11月至次年4月的持有收益率显著大于在5月至10月这半年的持有收益率。而近期股市的动荡表明“5月魔咒”或将再次上演。</p><p><b>股市暴跌</b></p><p>今年年初至今，全球40大主要股指中，仅有六个股指处于上涨，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数和巴西BOVESPA指数涨幅几乎可以忽略不计，其余34大股指均处于下跌状态。跌幅最大的当属深陷俄乌冲突的俄罗斯股市，跌幅达30%以上，熊冠全球。紧随其后的是深证成份指数下跌27.77%和纳斯达克综合指数 下跌22.37%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefe089190e73255f15200273a5b2223\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>全球主要股指今年表现，来源：Investing.com</p><p>从4月份开始，美股突然加速下跌。纳斯达克综合指数 在4月下跌了13.26%，而且跌势延续到了5月，上周五更是创下2020年以来最低收盘水平，周线连续第五周下跌，创2012年第四季以来持续时间最长的周线跌势；美国标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了8.8%，目前已经连续五周下跌，创自2011年第二季以来持续时间最长的周线下跌；道琼斯工业平均指数 4月下跌4.91%表现稍好。</p><p><b>美联储加息利剑高悬</b></p><p>5月初，美联储刚刚宣布加息50个基点至0.75%-1.00%区间，这是2000年以来首次大幅加息50个基点，但是与市场预期的加息75个基点相比并不算激进；同时宣布6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，与市场预期的缩表进度也有差距。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示75个基点的加息幅度并不值得考虑，未来几次会议加息50个基点是选项，可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点。FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。</p><p>美联储的行动和鲍威尔的发言打消了市场激进紧缩的预期，美股当日大幅上涨。但是仅仅一天之后，市场激进加息预期重燃，美股重挫。</p><p>从美股暴涨暴跌的走势来看，市场对于美联储激进加息的恐慌犹存。根据Investing.com的利率观测器，美联储在6月加息75基点的概率达到82.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b01f7b991072adcb80ed6f24bdfa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储利率观测器，来源：Investing.com</p><p>本轮美股暴跌的首要元凶就是美联储的紧缩政策。自去年转向鹰派以来，美联储已经结束了刺激措施并连续加息两次，加息幅度从25基点上升到了50基点，且不排除未来加息75基点，并启动了缩减资产负债表的计划。不管美联储如何说，抛开预期管理不谈，美联储的实际行动却是越来越激进的。</p><p>这与美国失控的通胀密不可分，本周美国将再次公布CPI和PPI数据，若出现通胀见顶的信号，美联储的紧缩进程或将放缓，美股或迎来喘息之机；若通胀继续高企，5月魔咒将再次上演。</p><p>此外，美国经济出现衰退的风险也在加大。美国今年第一季国内生产总值（GDP）意外地萎缩1.4％，此前收益率也一度出现倒挂的情况，这对股市也暗藏危机。</p><p><b>5月卖出策略或对A股更加有效</b></p><p>由于美股已经持续了十多年的牛市，虽然多数时候夏季股市的表现不如春季，但是美股的持续牛市会令投资者错过一部分涨幅，导致整体收益下降。据统计，使用该策略的话，标普500指数最大回撤会从52%下降至32%，但年化收益率从8.78%下降至6.98%。也就是说，该策略虽然降低了整体回撤，但绝对收益也被拉低了。</p><p>相对美股，5月卖出策略对偏向震荡的A股效果更加明显。据统计，使用该策略的话，最大回撤会从70 %下降至41%，年化收益率从3.48%提升至8.59%。</p><p><b>尾声</b></p><p>在牛市当中，5月份卖出的策略可能并不理想。但是在危机四伏的当下，暂时的离场将是最稳妥的选择。或许在6月7月美联储激进加息暂缓之后，美股利空出尽或将迎来机会窗口。</p><p>Sell in May and go away（5月卖出并离开）的下一句则是but remember to come back in September（但别忘了在九月回来）。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122098756","content_text":"正所谓五穷六绝七翻身。相信广大的A股 投资者都听说过这一句股市谚语。历年的春季,往往是股票市场的“春季躁动”的行情阶段。而到了各家公司的年报、一季报发布完毕后,股票市场很可能出现阶段性回调,来消化“春季躁动”上涨过程中的估值泡沫,而这种回调往往在每个半年结束前显得尤为剧烈。半年结束后，市场进入了半年报披露周期，而此前在调整过程中离场的场外活跃资金，很可能借助半年报增长的预期，发动一波“七翻身”的上涨行情。这样的循环，就构成了“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法。华尔街也同样有一句类似的谚语，叫“Sell in May and go away”。意思是在五月份卖出，然后离开股市。“五月魔咒”最早刊登于1935年5月10日的《金融时报》，此后一直在金融界广为流传。虽然看起来有些玄学，但是根据历史统计，11月至次年4月的持有收益率显著大于在5月至10月这半年的持有收益率。而近期股市的动荡表明“5月魔咒”或将再次上演。股市暴跌今年年初至今，全球40大主要股指中，仅有六个股指处于上涨，其中英国富时100指数和巴西BOVESPA指数涨幅几乎可以忽略不计，其余34大股指均处于下跌状态。跌幅最大的当属深陷俄乌冲突的俄罗斯股市，跌幅达30%以上，熊冠全球。紧随其后的是深证成份指数下跌27.77%和纳斯达克综合指数 下跌22.37%。全球主要股指今年表现，来源：Investing.com从4月份开始，美股突然加速下跌。纳斯达克综合指数 在4月下跌了13.26%，而且跌势延续到了5月，上周五更是创下2020年以来最低收盘水平，周线连续第五周下跌，创2012年第四季以来持续时间最长的周线跌势；美国标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了8.8%，目前已经连续五周下跌，创自2011年第二季以来持续时间最长的周线下跌；道琼斯工业平均指数 4月下跌4.91%表现稍好。美联储加息利剑高悬5月初，美联储刚刚宣布加息50个基点至0.75%-1.00%区间，这是2000年以来首次大幅加息50个基点，但是与市场预期的加息75个基点相比并不算激进；同时宣布6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元，与市场预期的缩表进度也有差距。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示75个基点的加息幅度并不值得考虑，未来几次会议加息50个基点是选项，可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点。FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。美联储的行动和鲍威尔的发言打消了市场激进紧缩的预期，美股当日大幅上涨。但是仅仅一天之后，市场激进加息预期重燃，美股重挫。从美股暴涨暴跌的走势来看，市场对于美联储激进加息的恐慌犹存。根据Investing.com的利率观测器，美联储在6月加息75基点的概率达到82.9%。美联储利率观测器，来源：Investing.com本轮美股暴跌的首要元凶就是美联储的紧缩政策。自去年转向鹰派以来，美联储已经结束了刺激措施并连续加息两次，加息幅度从25基点上升到了50基点，且不排除未来加息75基点，并启动了缩减资产负债表的计划。不管美联储如何说，抛开预期管理不谈，美联储的实际行动却是越来越激进的。这与美国失控的通胀密不可分，本周美国将再次公布CPI和PPI数据，若出现通胀见顶的信号，美联储的紧缩进程或将放缓，美股或迎来喘息之机；若通胀继续高企，5月魔咒将再次上演。此外，美国经济出现衰退的风险也在加大。美国今年第一季国内生产总值（GDP）意外地萎缩1.4％，此前收益率也一度出现倒挂的情况，这对股市也暗藏危机。5月卖出策略或对A股更加有效由于美股已经持续了十多年的牛市，虽然多数时候夏季股市的表现不如春季，但是美股的持续牛市会令投资者错过一部分涨幅，导致整体收益下降。据统计，使用该策略的话，标普500指数最大回撤会从52%下降至32%，但年化收益率从8.78%下降至6.98%。也就是说，该策略虽然降低了整体回撤，但绝对收益也被拉低了。相对美股，5月卖出策略对偏向震荡的A股效果更加明显。据统计，使用该策略的话，最大回撤会从70 %下降至41%，年化收益率从3.48%提升至8.59%。尾声在牛市当中，5月份卖出的策略可能并不理想。但是在危机四伏的当下，暂时的离场将是最稳妥的选择。或许在6月7月美联储激进加息暂缓之后，美股利空出尽或将迎来机会窗口。Sell in May and go away（5月卖出并离开）的下一句则是but remember to come back in September（但别忘了在九月回来）。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098552795,"gmtCreate":1644192936636,"gmtModify":1676533897479,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584489883977095","idStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098552795","repostId":"2209405933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923305102,"gmtCreate":1670798163907,"gmtModify":1676538433445,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584489883977095","idStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968052582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961374184,"gmtCreate":1668863639149,"gmtModify":1676538122599,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584489883977095","idStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961374184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023072918,"gmtCreate":1652841447434,"gmtModify":1676535173457,"author":{"id":"3584489883977095","authorId":"3584489883977095","name":"Dorcus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7437f4f99cc8aa728090f222ce507aae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584489883977095","idStr":"3584489883977095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023072918","repostId":"1119599609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119599609","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"“一号在手，投资无忧！”此微信公众号为中信证券研究报告权威发布平台，力求信息及时、准确，是您投资好帮手！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中信证券研究","id":"1010577552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b"},"pubTimestamp":1652838652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119599609?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 09:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"互联网政策释放积极信号，关注后续盈利改善","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119599609","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"2022年5月17日，全国政协召开数字经济专题协商会，再次释放“支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展”的积极信号。当前市场环境下，考虑宏观压力及流动性方面折价，头部公司如阿里巴巴、腾讯控股已达近5年估值","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022年5月17日，全国政协召开数字经济专题协商会，再次释放“支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展”的积极信号。当前市场环境下，考虑宏观压力及流动性方面折价，头部公司如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>已达近5年估值分位数的4%、2%，即便考虑到互联网的投资逻辑已经发生变化，在下一代云计算、AI驱动的数字经济的国际竞争中，中国互联网公司依然具备比较优势。在市场情绪悲观时，我们回归基本面，讨论未来1-2年中国互联网公司可能的成长性及其风险，站在未来1-2年的时间维度上，中国互联网公司投资依然有可能实现相对稳定的回报。我们建议重点关注竞争优势稳固、新业务及新市场拓展领先的头部互联网公司。</p><p>2022年5月17日，全国政协在京召开“推动数字经济持续健康发展”专题协商会，国务院副总理刘鹤表示：“全球数字经济正呈现智能化、量子化、跨界融合等新特征，要努力适应数字经济带来的全方位变革，打好关键核心技术攻坚战，支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展，处理好政府和市场关系，支持数字企业在国内外资本市场上市，以开放促竞争，以竞争促创新。”当前我们对于互联网板块观点如下：</p><p><b>政策复盘：政策释放积极信号。</b></p><p>2021年以来，全球市场对互联网行业反垄断、数据安全、个人隐私的政策监管持续落地，市场对互联网公司的投资逻辑已经发生变化，未来关注点将回归于基本面及数字经济创新。2022年以来，从《关于推动平台经济规范健康持续发展的若干意见》的发布、中央政治局会议、全国政协专题协商会针对“促进平台经济健康发展”的相关表述来看，政策正释放更多积极信号。我们认为，国内针对互联网行业的政策脉络也逐渐明晰，当下投资者对于未来政策监管的预期已相对充分，预计边际影响将逐渐淡化。</p><p><b>业绩表现：国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。</b></p><p>我们认为， 2022年，头部互联网公司业绩受制于经济增长压力，1-2季度预期相对悲观，季报披露后可能仍将存在业绩增速一致预期下调的可能性，后续业绩改善取决于局部疫情缓解和宏观经济的变化。动态来看，根据彭博一致预期，阿里、腾讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>2022年经调整利润预期在2021年分别下调了25%/20%/35%，2022年下调幅度分别为2%/16%/15%；静态来看，我们看到市场对于互联网公司业绩预期在2022Q3开始出现明显的增速拐点。</p><p>我们认为，受国内几个大城市疫情影响，2022年上半年电商等行业将受到一定程度影响，伴随局部疫情缓和，预计2022下半年消费端有望逐季缓慢修复；广告领域，教培行业、互联网金融等广告主的高基数影响有望在2022Q3开始消除；利润端来看，头部互联网公司有望从2022Q2开始逐步消除反垄断罚款及战略投入加大的基数影响，预计后续在国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。</p><p><b>估值判断：当下估值具备性价比，互联网公司创新优势仍在，第二增长曲线有望带来估值增量。</b></p><p>2021年高点以来至今，中国互联网指数累计下跌73%，其中头部公司阿里巴巴、腾讯控股等公司当前分别处于近5年估值分位数4%、2%，相对估值水平已处与近5年历史低水平，2021年末公司现金类资产/总市值占比分别为34%/9%。我们认为，伴随着局部疫情的缓和，宏观经济的修复，未来互联网公司1-2业绩仍具备一定的确定性，预计成熟公司/业务2021-23年利润CAGR约为15%。展望未来，针对云计算、自动驾驶、元宇宙等下一代新兴科技，阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动、美团等头部互联网依然是重要参与者，阿里、腾讯等公司每年研发费费用投入在近百亿美元规模，优质的人才储备、灵活的组织结构有望孵化出互联网公司的第二增长曲线，提供未来的估值增量。</p><p><b>交易结构：持续回购支撑下，股价居底部区域。</b></p><p>我们从做空持仓、公司回购、基金申购三个维度保持对互联网板块的资金持续监控：</p><p>1）做空角度，以港股为例，截至2022年5月13日，腾讯/美团/快手卖空成交比率分别为13%/13%/7%，呈缓慢下滑趋势；</p><p>2）回购角度，截至2022年4月14日（静默期后不再回购），腾讯本轮累计回购近74亿港元，同时每日回购金额也从2021年8月19的约6400万港元提升至2022年4月14日的2.4亿港元；阿里巴巴2022年3月将回购计划从150亿美元提升至250亿美元，回购将持续至2024年3月底，彰显公司在当前估值水平对自身业务发展及股价的看好。</p><p>3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>基金角度，截至2022年5月13日，中概互联网ETF（513050）及CSI China Internet（KWEB）自2021年高点以来净值分别回撤67%/75%，但其基金资产总额相对于2020年底分别增长约532%/66%。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>政策监管超预期导致板块估值进一步下行；宏观经济增长放缓，导致2022Q2电商、新零售、广告等行业增长不及预期；利率上行或流动性收紧导致市场估值中枢的下移；互联网公司业务调整进度不及预期导致业绩回暖不及预期；新业务及新市场拓展不及预期，或投资亏损超预期；个人隐私、数据安全新规对广告收入的影响超预期导致广告收入不及预期；美股PCAOB监管超预期导致的美股退市风险；核心股东减持风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>我们认为，互联网行业公司业绩基本面有望触底回暖，行业政策脉络逐渐明晰，市场对不确定性的担忧正在边际好转。策略上，我们推荐行业优势地位稳固，核心业务稳健增长，新技术及新市场拓展持续领先的头部公司。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>互联网政策释放积极信号，关注后续盈利改善</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n互联网政策释放积极信号，关注后续盈利改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-18 09:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2022年5月17日，全国政协召开数字经济专题协商会，再次释放“支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展”的积极信号。当前市场环境下，考虑宏观压力及流动性方面折价，头部公司如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>已达近5年估值分位数的4%、2%，即便考虑到互联网的投资逻辑已经发生变化，在下一代云计算、AI驱动的数字经济的国际竞争中，中国互联网公司依然具备比较优势。在市场情绪悲观时，我们回归基本面，讨论未来1-2年中国互联网公司可能的成长性及其风险，站在未来1-2年的时间维度上，中国互联网公司投资依然有可能实现相对稳定的回报。我们建议重点关注竞争优势稳固、新业务及新市场拓展领先的头部互联网公司。</p><p>2022年5月17日，全国政协在京召开“推动数字经济持续健康发展”专题协商会，国务院副总理刘鹤表示：“全球数字经济正呈现智能化、量子化、跨界融合等新特征，要努力适应数字经济带来的全方位变革，打好关键核心技术攻坚战，支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展，处理好政府和市场关系，支持数字企业在国内外资本市场上市，以开放促竞争，以竞争促创新。”当前我们对于互联网板块观点如下：</p><p><b>政策复盘：政策释放积极信号。</b></p><p>2021年以来，全球市场对互联网行业反垄断、数据安全、个人隐私的政策监管持续落地，市场对互联网公司的投资逻辑已经发生变化，未来关注点将回归于基本面及数字经济创新。2022年以来，从《关于推动平台经济规范健康持续发展的若干意见》的发布、中央政治局会议、全国政协专题协商会针对“促进平台经济健康发展”的相关表述来看，政策正释放更多积极信号。我们认为，国内针对互联网行业的政策脉络也逐渐明晰，当下投资者对于未来政策监管的预期已相对充分，预计边际影响将逐渐淡化。</p><p><b>业绩表现：国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。</b></p><p>我们认为， 2022年，头部互联网公司业绩受制于经济增长压力，1-2季度预期相对悲观，季报披露后可能仍将存在业绩增速一致预期下调的可能性，后续业绩改善取决于局部疫情缓解和宏观经济的变化。动态来看，根据彭博一致预期，阿里、腾讯、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>2022年经调整利润预期在2021年分别下调了25%/20%/35%，2022年下调幅度分别为2%/16%/15%；静态来看，我们看到市场对于互联网公司业绩预期在2022Q3开始出现明显的增速拐点。</p><p>我们认为，受国内几个大城市疫情影响，2022年上半年电商等行业将受到一定程度影响，伴随局部疫情缓和，预计2022下半年消费端有望逐季缓慢修复；广告领域，教培行业、互联网金融等广告主的高基数影响有望在2022Q3开始消除；利润端来看，头部互联网公司有望从2022Q2开始逐步消除反垄断罚款及战略投入加大的基数影响，预计后续在国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。</p><p><b>估值判断：当下估值具备性价比，互联网公司创新优势仍在，第二增长曲线有望带来估值增量。</b></p><p>2021年高点以来至今，中国互联网指数累计下跌73%，其中头部公司阿里巴巴、腾讯控股等公司当前分别处于近5年估值分位数4%、2%，相对估值水平已处与近5年历史低水平，2021年末公司现金类资产/总市值占比分别为34%/9%。我们认为，伴随着局部疫情的缓和，宏观经济的修复，未来互联网公司1-2业绩仍具备一定的确定性，预计成熟公司/业务2021-23年利润CAGR约为15%。展望未来，针对云计算、自动驾驶、元宇宙等下一代新兴科技，阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动、美团等头部互联网依然是重要参与者，阿里、腾讯等公司每年研发费费用投入在近百亿美元规模，优质的人才储备、灵活的组织结构有望孵化出互联网公司的第二增长曲线，提供未来的估值增量。</p><p><b>交易结构：持续回购支撑下，股价居底部区域。</b></p><p>我们从做空持仓、公司回购、基金申购三个维度保持对互联网板块的资金持续监控：</p><p>1）做空角度，以港股为例，截至2022年5月13日，腾讯/美团/快手卖空成交比率分别为13%/13%/7%，呈缓慢下滑趋势；</p><p>2）回购角度，截至2022年4月14日（静默期后不再回购），腾讯本轮累计回购近74亿港元，同时每日回购金额也从2021年8月19的约6400万港元提升至2022年4月14日的2.4亿港元；阿里巴巴2022年3月将回购计划从150亿美元提升至250亿美元，回购将持续至2024年3月底，彰显公司在当前估值水平对自身业务发展及股价的看好。</p><p>3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>基金角度，截至2022年5月13日，中概互联网ETF（513050）及CSI China Internet（KWEB）自2021年高点以来净值分别回撤67%/75%，但其基金资产总额相对于2020年底分别增长约532%/66%。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>政策监管超预期导致板块估值进一步下行；宏观经济增长放缓，导致2022Q2电商、新零售、广告等行业增长不及预期；利率上行或流动性收紧导致市场估值中枢的下移；互联网公司业务调整进度不及预期导致业绩回暖不及预期；新业务及新市场拓展不及预期，或投资亏损超预期；个人隐私、数据安全新规对广告收入的影响超预期导致广告收入不及预期；美股PCAOB监管超预期导致的美股退市风险；核心股东减持风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>我们认为，互联网行业公司业绩基本面有望触底回暖，行业政策脉络逐渐明晰，市场对不确定性的担忧正在边际好转。策略上，我们推荐行业优势地位稳固，核心业务稳健增长，新技术及新市场拓展持续领先的头部公司。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119599609","content_text":"2022年5月17日，全国政协召开数字经济专题协商会，再次释放“支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展”的积极信号。当前市场环境下，考虑宏观压力及流动性方面折价，头部公司如阿里巴巴、腾讯控股已达近5年估值分位数的4%、2%，即便考虑到互联网的投资逻辑已经发生变化，在下一代云计算、AI驱动的数字经济的国际竞争中，中国互联网公司依然具备比较优势。在市场情绪悲观时，我们回归基本面，讨论未来1-2年中国互联网公司可能的成长性及其风险，站在未来1-2年的时间维度上，中国互联网公司投资依然有可能实现相对稳定的回报。我们建议重点关注竞争优势稳固、新业务及新市场拓展领先的头部互联网公司。2022年5月17日，全国政协在京召开“推动数字经济持续健康发展”专题协商会，国务院副总理刘鹤表示：“全球数字经济正呈现智能化、量子化、跨界融合等新特征，要努力适应数字经济带来的全方位变革，打好关键核心技术攻坚战，支持平台经济、民营经济持续健康发展，处理好政府和市场关系，支持数字企业在国内外资本市场上市，以开放促竞争，以竞争促创新。”当前我们对于互联网板块观点如下：政策复盘：政策释放积极信号。2021年以来，全球市场对互联网行业反垄断、数据安全、个人隐私的政策监管持续落地，市场对互联网公司的投资逻辑已经发生变化，未来关注点将回归于基本面及数字经济创新。2022年以来，从《关于推动平台经济规范健康持续发展的若干意见》的发布、中央政治局会议、全国政协专题协商会针对“促进平台经济健康发展”的相关表述来看，政策正释放更多积极信号。我们认为，国内针对互联网行业的政策脉络也逐渐明晰，当下投资者对于未来政策监管的预期已相对充分，预计边际影响将逐渐淡化。业绩表现：国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。我们认为， 2022年，头部互联网公司业绩受制于经济增长压力，1-2季度预期相对悲观，季报披露后可能仍将存在业绩增速一致预期下调的可能性，后续业绩改善取决于局部疫情缓解和宏观经济的变化。动态来看，根据彭博一致预期，阿里、腾讯、京东2022年经调整利润预期在2021年分别下调了25%/20%/35%，2022年下调幅度分别为2%/16%/15%；静态来看，我们看到市场对于互联网公司业绩预期在2022Q3开始出现明显的增速拐点。我们认为，受国内几个大城市疫情影响，2022年上半年电商等行业将受到一定程度影响，伴随局部疫情缓和，预计2022下半年消费端有望逐季缓慢修复；广告领域，教培行业、互联网金融等广告主的高基数影响有望在2022Q3开始消除；利润端来看，头部互联网公司有望从2022Q2开始逐步消除反垄断罚款及战略投入加大的基数影响，预计后续在国内疫情缓和假设下，互联网公司业绩弹性有望显现。估值判断：当下估值具备性价比，互联网公司创新优势仍在，第二增长曲线有望带来估值增量。2021年高点以来至今，中国互联网指数累计下跌73%，其中头部公司阿里巴巴、腾讯控股等公司当前分别处于近5年估值分位数4%、2%，相对估值水平已处与近5年历史低水平，2021年末公司现金类资产/总市值占比分别为34%/9%。我们认为，伴随着局部疫情的缓和，宏观经济的修复，未来互联网公司1-2业绩仍具备一定的确定性，预计成熟公司/业务2021-23年利润CAGR约为15%。展望未来，针对云计算、自动驾驶、元宇宙等下一代新兴科技，阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动、美团等头部互联网依然是重要参与者，阿里、腾讯等公司每年研发费费用投入在近百亿美元规模，优质的人才储备、灵活的组织结构有望孵化出互联网公司的第二增长曲线，提供未来的估值增量。交易结构：持续回购支撑下，股价居底部区域。我们从做空持仓、公司回购、基金申购三个维度保持对互联网板块的资金持续监控：1）做空角度，以港股为例，截至2022年5月13日，腾讯/美团/快手卖空成交比率分别为13%/13%/7%，呈缓慢下滑趋势；2）回购角度，截至2022年4月14日（静默期后不再回购），腾讯本轮累计回购近74亿港元，同时每日回购金额也从2021年8月19的约6400万港元提升至2022年4月14日的2.4亿港元；阿里巴巴2022年3月将回购计划从150亿美元提升至250亿美元，回购将持续至2024年3月底，彰显公司在当前估值水平对自身业务发展及股价的看好。3）Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金角度，截至2022年5月13日，中概互联网ETF（513050）及CSI China Internet（KWEB）自2021年高点以来净值分别回撤67%/75%，但其基金资产总额相对于2020年底分别增长约532%/66%。风险因素：政策监管超预期导致板块估值进一步下行；宏观经济增长放缓，导致2022Q2电商、新零售、广告等行业增长不及预期；利率上行或流动性收紧导致市场估值中枢的下移；互联网公司业务调整进度不及预期导致业绩回暖不及预期；新业务及新市场拓展不及预期，或投资亏损超预期；个人隐私、数据安全新规对广告收入的影响超预期导致广告收入不及预期；美股PCAOB监管超预期导致的美股退市风险；核心股东减持风险等。投资策略：我们认为，互联网行业公司业绩基本面有望触底回暖，行业政策脉络逐渐明晰，市场对不确定性的担忧正在边际好转。策略上，我们推荐行业优势地位稳固，核心业务稳健增长，新技术及新市场拓展持续领先的头部公司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}