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2021-06-05
Go go apple
Should You Buy Apple Stock Before WWDC?
cruzer
2021-06-03
Longterm I guess
Is Apple Stock Overvalued?
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2021-06-03
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The Apple Maven looked back at recent history to see how AAPL stock behaved around these events.Apple’s WWDC is just around the corner. The Cupertino company will virtually host the 32nd Worldwide Developers Conference, starting June 7. Rumor has it that Apple will announce five new software updates, including iOS 15 and macOS 12. Also, new hardware could be unveiled, but these announcements tend to be ra","content":"<p>On June 7, Apple will host its annual WWDC event – as a virtual conference, just like 2020. The Apple Maven looked back at recent history to see how AAPL stock behaved around these events.</p>\n<p>Apple’s WWDC is just around the corner. The Cupertino company will virtually host the 32nd Worldwide Developers Conference, starting June 7. Rumor has it that Apple will announce five new software updates, including iOS 15 and macOS 12. Also, new hardware could be unveiled, but these announcements tend to be rare during the developers’ conference.</p>\n<p>Today, the Apple Maven looks back at the most recent WWDC events to check how the stock behaved prior to and immediately after the conference.</p>\n<p>Before we dive in…</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that the Apple Maven will cover the event via <b>live blog</b>, starting at 9:45 a.m. Cupertino time (PDT), on June 7. Tune in to follow our analysis of Apple's WWDC presentation!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4af607bdf7b93f038263f4c2d0575f3\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's 2021 WWDC.</span></p>\n<p><b>WWDC 2017: Apple stock hiccups</b></p>\n<p>The 2017 edition of WWDC took place between June 5 and June 9, 2017. At that time, three software updates were announced: the iOS 11, macOS High Sierra and tvOS. Also, hardware updates were unveiled, including the Mac, iPad and HomePod.</p>\n<p>Looking at the performance of Apple shares a week before until the end of the event, AAPL investors did not show much enthusiasm. The stock moved 3% lower, trading at that time at $37.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/186aecd588efc459ba0be3e423485612\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL 2017 chart.</span></p>\n<p><b>WWDC 2018: modest climb</b></p>\n<p>In 2018, WWDC was held from June 4 to June 8. iOS 12 was announced, and so were software updates for Mac and Watch. This time, there were no hardware announcements.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f8d4a6d1b8bb55730d84f348b32520\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL 2018 chart.</span></p>\n<p>From one week prior until the end of the event, WWDC 2018 may have brought optimism to investors, as shares climbed by 2%, trading at that time at nearly $48.</p>\n<p><b>WWDC 2019: the start of the ramp</b></p>\n<p>The 2019 conference was held from June 3 to June 7. iOS 13 and other software updates were announced for the Mac, Watch, TV and iPad. Apple also launched hardware updates on Mac.</p>\n<p>Apple stock behaved well, rising nearly 7% from a week before to the end of the event. In 2019, WWDC coincided with the beginning of a massive climb in AAPL share price that lasted until the end of the year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e261dd232ee1779ea1d89a8ebd4dd7\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL 2019 chart.</span></p>\n<p><b>WWDC 2020: riding the recovery</b></p>\n<p>For the first time, the 2020 version of WWDC was held online because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The conference happened from June 22 to June 26. At that time, iOS 14 was announced, alongside iPad, Watch, TV and Mac software updates.The highlight of the event was the announced transition to custom ARM processors for Mac.</p>\n<p>The stock was rebounding from the COVID-19 stock market crash at that time. Looking back at the period between a week prior to and the end of the event, shares were up 3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa56b7f188ab147a30b9f13621f0024\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Figure 5: AAPL 2020 chart.</span></p>\n<p><b>What history suggests</b></p>\n<p>It is hard to predict how Apple stock will behave in the near future. However, looking back at history, we can draw a few conclusions about AAPL share price behavior around WWDC in the last 5 years.</p>\n<p>Except for the 2017 conference, Apple caught an updraft around the WWDC weeks. Whether the performance is related to the event itself is a matter of interpretation.</p>\n<p><b>What to expect of WWDC 2021</b></p>\n<p>For this year’s WWDC, Apple will likely release the usual software updates. For investors, possible updates on the products and services front would be most meaningful.</p>\n<p>A possible successor for the M1 chip, a 27-inc Mac, a new MacBook Pro, updates on AR and VR technology and even hints about the Apple Car would certainly be highlights. Any of these potential developments, even if unlikely to happen, could give an extra impulse for Apple shares in the short- and mid-terms.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Apple Stock Before WWDC?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Apple Stock Before WWDC?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 21:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/should-you-buy-apple-stock-before-wwdc><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On June 7, Apple will host its annual WWDC event – as a virtual conference, just like 2020. The Apple Maven looked back at recent history to see how AAPL stock behaved around these events.\nApple’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/should-you-buy-apple-stock-before-wwdc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/should-you-buy-apple-stock-before-wwdc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158897173","content_text":"On June 7, Apple will host its annual WWDC event – as a virtual conference, just like 2020. The Apple Maven looked back at recent history to see how AAPL stock behaved around these events.\nApple’s WWDC is just around the corner. The Cupertino company will virtually host the 32nd Worldwide Developers Conference, starting June 7. Rumor has it that Apple will announce five new software updates, including iOS 15 and macOS 12. Also, new hardware could be unveiled, but these announcements tend to be rare during the developers’ conference.\nToday, the Apple Maven looks back at the most recent WWDC events to check how the stock behaved prior to and immediately after the conference.\nBefore we dive in…\nKeep in mind that the Apple Maven will cover the event via live blog, starting at 9:45 a.m. Cupertino time (PDT), on June 7. Tune in to follow our analysis of Apple's WWDC presentation!\nFigure 1: Apple's 2021 WWDC.\nWWDC 2017: Apple stock hiccups\nThe 2017 edition of WWDC took place between June 5 and June 9, 2017. At that time, three software updates were announced: the iOS 11, macOS High Sierra and tvOS. Also, hardware updates were unveiled, including the Mac, iPad and HomePod.\nLooking at the performance of Apple shares a week before until the end of the event, AAPL investors did not show much enthusiasm. The stock moved 3% lower, trading at that time at $37.\nFigure 2: AAPL 2017 chart.\nWWDC 2018: modest climb\nIn 2018, WWDC was held from June 4 to June 8. iOS 12 was announced, and so were software updates for Mac and Watch. This time, there were no hardware announcements.\nFigure 3: AAPL 2018 chart.\nFrom one week prior until the end of the event, WWDC 2018 may have brought optimism to investors, as shares climbed by 2%, trading at that time at nearly $48.\nWWDC 2019: the start of the ramp\nThe 2019 conference was held from June 3 to June 7. iOS 13 and other software updates were announced for the Mac, Watch, TV and iPad. Apple also launched hardware updates on Mac.\nApple stock behaved well, rising nearly 7% from a week before to the end of the event. In 2019, WWDC coincided with the beginning of a massive climb in AAPL share price that lasted until the end of the year.\nFigure 4: AAPL 2019 chart.\nWWDC 2020: riding the recovery\nFor the first time, the 2020 version of WWDC was held online because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The conference happened from June 22 to June 26. At that time, iOS 14 was announced, alongside iPad, Watch, TV and Mac software updates.The highlight of the event was the announced transition to custom ARM processors for Mac.\nThe stock was rebounding from the COVID-19 stock market crash at that time. Looking back at the period between a week prior to and the end of the event, shares were up 3%.\nFigure 5: AAPL 2020 chart.\nWhat history suggests\nIt is hard to predict how Apple stock will behave in the near future. However, looking back at history, we can draw a few conclusions about AAPL share price behavior around WWDC in the last 5 years.\nExcept for the 2017 conference, Apple caught an updraft around the WWDC weeks. Whether the performance is related to the event itself is a matter of interpretation.\nWhat to expect of WWDC 2021\nFor this year’s WWDC, Apple will likely release the usual software updates. For investors, possible updates on the products and services front would be most meaningful.\nA possible successor for the M1 chip, a 27-inc Mac, a new MacBook Pro, updates on AR and VR technology and even hints about the Apple Car would certainly be highlights. Any of these potential developments, even if unlikely to happen, could give an extra impulse for Apple shares in the short- and mid-terms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118078324,"gmtCreate":1622710234168,"gmtModify":1704189409345,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Longterm I guess","listText":"Longterm I guess","text":"Longterm I guess","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118078324","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160407593?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>\n <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>\n <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li>\n <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p>\n<p><b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p>\n<p>From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p>\n<p>But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p>\n<p>Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p>\n<p>Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p>\n<p>Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p>\n<p>Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p>\n<p>Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 15:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118071936,"gmtCreate":1622710189825,"gmtModify":1704189407543,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","text":"$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118071936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118079640,"gmtCreate":1622710085280,"gmtModify":1704189404914,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118079640","repostId":"1178258633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178258633","pubTimestamp":1622709110,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178258633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178258633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li>\n <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li>\n <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p>\n<p><b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p>\n<p>Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p>\n<p>AMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p>\n<p>AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p>\n<p>Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p>\n<p>Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p>\n<p>One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p>\n<p>But back to AMC's announcement.</p>\n<p>Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p>\n<p>Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p>\n<p>AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p>\n<p>However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p>\n<p>AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p>\n<p>Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p>\n<p>While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p>\n<p><b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p>\n<p>AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p>\n<p>Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p>\n<p>AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p>\n<p>AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p>\n<p><b>Closing thoughts</b></p>\n<p>A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p>\n<p>You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 16:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.\nIt looks as if this hedge fund ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178258633","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.\nIt looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.\n\nPhoto by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nShares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.\nReason for AMC's price reaction\nMovie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.\nAMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.\nAMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".\nFresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.\nAlthough AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.\nOne big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.\nBut back to AMC's announcement.\nShares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.\nLooking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...\n(Source: TradingView)\nAMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…\n(Source: ShortSqueeze)\nHowever, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.\nAMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...\nData by YCharts\nA hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…\nMudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!\nWhile AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...\nExtreme volatility and risks...\nAMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.\nCinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.\nData by YCharts\nThe risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.\nAMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.\nAMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.\nClosing thoughts\nA hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.\nYou literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118070562,"gmtCreate":1622710057556,"gmtModify":1704189403603,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118070562","repostId":"1105752559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105752559","pubTimestamp":1622694904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105752559?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 12:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105752559","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves,","content":"<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.</p><p>The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)</p><p>The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.</p><p>The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.</p><p>Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd994b6947e51ac1dd241aebc098785c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year, showing the<i>composite</i>implied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833b40f70599f8f813f2c0eaa3a7c8b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is a<i>lot</i>higher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)</p><p>So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.</p><p>However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,<i>out-of-the-money</i>options are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.</p><p>Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.</p><p>One can see from the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.</p><p>Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda30eb7b24e1715b109a7c7f42a2623\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e235888f2cd914eacad62e402d2397c7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> options strategies could take advantage of this:</p><ol><li><b>A bear put spread.</b>Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock price<i>and</i>sell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.</li><li><b>Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMC</b><b><i>prior</i></b><b>to the short squeeze.</b>AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.</li></ol><p>Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 12:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.AMC Entertainment Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105752559","content_text":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.AMC Entertainment Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at one point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a one-year, showing thecompositeimplied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is alothigher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,out-of-the-moneyoptions are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.One can see from the one-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.Two options strategies could take advantage of this:A bear put spread.Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock priceandsell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMCpriorto the short squeeze.AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112411360,"gmtCreate":1622900739150,"gmtModify":1704193129577,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585717311854083","idStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go apple","listText":"Go go apple","text":"Go go apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112411360","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118078324,"gmtCreate":1622710234168,"gmtModify":1704189409345,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585717311854083","idStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Longterm I guess","listText":"Longterm I guess","text":"Longterm I guess","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118078324","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118071936,"gmtCreate":1622710189825,"gmtModify":1704189407543,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585717311854083","idStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","text":"$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118071936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118079640,"gmtCreate":1622710085280,"gmtModify":1704189404914,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585717311854083","idStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118079640","repostId":"1178258633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118070562,"gmtCreate":1622710057556,"gmtModify":1704189403603,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585717311854083","idStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118070562","repostId":"1105752559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
