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2021-09-22

$Square(SQ)$ today goes up

2021-09-17

$Square(SQ)$ many stocks started to rebound

2021-09-08

$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up

2021-09-07

$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio

2021-09-04

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-09-01

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$premarket ❤️ up more please~?

2021-08-31

$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$This stock is crazy ??

2021-08-04

$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.

@3Fs:Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference

2021-07-16

$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~

2021-06-23

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?

2021-06-21

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?

2021-06-18

How do you think? Comment please~

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

2021-06-18

Do you think it started to goes up?

2021-06-14

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold

Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider

2021-06-13

Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-13

Good and steady

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-13

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

How tech companies are bringing workers back to the office: Slowly and with 'social' incentives

2021-06-13

Wow

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2021-06-13

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Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.

2021-06-12

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Where do you think the price will reach end of the June? They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June compare to May. How do you think?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;today goes up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;today goes up","text":"$Square(SQ)$ today goes up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e876a74e1e35e1fab0345e7433a90719","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869723287","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear.","text":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear.","html":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884162666,"gmtCreate":1631868516755,"gmtModify":1676530657164,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;many stocks started to rebound","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;many stocks started to rebound","text":"$Square(SQ)$ many stocks started to rebound","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba16a74643d4be49e628fe5b93f0d87","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884162666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient.","text":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient.","html":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889966584,"gmtCreate":1631104489748,"gmtModify":1676530468307,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378dd153640126f0da3a32a2871a213","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889966584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569982147441048","authorId":"3569982147441048","name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","text":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","html":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880995991,"gmtCreate":1631006406313,"gmtModify":1676530440431,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","text":"$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8121056b0b13493686fa65c3d4ee0c","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880995991","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815580682,"gmtCreate":1630691980846,"gmtModify":1676530378277,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815580682","repostId":"2164829181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816299608,"gmtCreate":1630502394604,"gmtModify":1676530321629,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~?","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$premarket ❤️ up more please~?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec0204d9af77142fa8aa53a60fc79ff","width":"1080","height":"2741"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816299608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811730213,"gmtCreate":1630344831832,"gmtModify":1676530276781,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy ??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy ??","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$This stock is crazy ??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137a708327204bbc2b71fe2e19665290","width":"1080","height":"2642"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811730213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581686650032769","authorId":"3581686650032769","name":"Mr凡凡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f90b19678878f062e15d5a34dbdc36","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON","text":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON","html":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890904361,"gmtCreate":1628072758553,"gmtModify":1703500677708,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890904361","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1703499292702,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807919017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087448384989520","authorId":"4087448384989520","name":"Joyce5914","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c227995f1a2accf642bce8af292e9e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise","text":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise","html":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803337,"gmtCreate":1626416698029,"gmtModify":1703759756652,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0c2b8e72dff4f4842c2590bf313412","width":"1080","height":"4176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170803337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568592803065563","authorId":"3568592803065563","name":"yinfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a23c5020f38941c73ef9797c191ba65","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]","text":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]","html":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123878743,"gmtCreate":1624418395182,"gmtModify":1703836077570,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2722e12b554309e1402d0b3b1f8b5a","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123878743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167289407,"gmtCreate":1624270554809,"gmtModify":1703832051937,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc912bcb850e7afa73208d227b55c19","width":"1080","height":"2492"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167289407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166327041,"gmtCreate":1623993054683,"gmtModify":1703825989495,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How do you think? Comment please~","listText":"How do you think? Comment please~","text":"How do you think? Comment please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166327041","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569982147441048","authorId":"3569982147441048","name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$","text":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$","html":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166325545,"gmtCreate":1623992990387,"gmtModify":1703825987366,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","listText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","text":"Do you think it started to goes up?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03336ebfbc967a1c9659755184c8afc","width":"1080","height":"2387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166325545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185102757,"gmtCreate":1623635570879,"gmtModify":1704207429071,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185102757","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>\n <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>\n <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>\n <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>\n <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p>\n<p>If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p>\n<p>Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p>\n<p>If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p>\n<p>If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation</b></p>\n<p>By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p>\n<p>Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p>\n<p>So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p>\n<p>We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p>\n<p><b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p>\n<p>The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p>\n<p>Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p>\n<p>Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p>\n<p>Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p>\n<p><b>Chart Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p>\n<p>This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p>\n<p>If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p>\n<p>We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>\n <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>\n <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>\n <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>\n <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p>\n<p>If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182418166,"gmtCreate":1623597263455,"gmtModify":1704206796319,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.&nbsp;","listText":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.&nbsp;","text":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182418166","repostId":"1195128984","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182497304,"gmtCreate":1623595707908,"gmtModify":1704206775133,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and steady&nbsp;","listText":"Good and steady&nbsp;","text":"Good and steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182497304","repostId":"2142823202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182573540,"gmtCreate":1623593414880,"gmtModify":1704206738608,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182573540","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143788707","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623530820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143788707?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 04:47","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"How tech companies are bringing workers back to the office: Slowly and with 'social' incentives","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143788707","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"'The claims that \"the office is dead\" are over-hyped,' Twilio executive says. 'The truth is that the","content":"<p>'The claims that \"the office is dead\" are over-hyped,' Twilio executive says. 'The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.'</p>\n<p>As they return to work, employees of website platform Contentful Inc. are getting an eyeful of their new offices in Berlin and Denver and a realigned headquarters in San Francisco, which include hallmarks of the post-pandemic workplace -- a theater in Berlin and group rooms in San Francisco that are devoted to interactive meetings, with kitchen space doubled.</p>\n<p>\"We think the office is a social place first,\" Contentful Chief Executive Steve Sloan told MarketWatch. \"The office is where the great ideas are hatched -- especially in an idea-centric economy.\"</p>\n<p>Millions of tech workers are slowly making the migration back to offices as millions become fully vaccinated and states lift restrictions. At Contentful, all 550 employees, including Sloan, will continue to work from home most of the time, and occasionally venture into the office for socializing and collaboration.</p>\n<p>But many of those returning may not recognize the new digs, which are largely being designed to foster a nexus of ideas shared in theater-like settings and socially-distanced conference rooms, with specialized break-out areas for brainstorming and socializing. Workers will need to get used to the new office lingo of dynamic spaces and hoteling.</p>\n<p>\"It's about going into the tunnel, and coming out of the tunnel,\" VMware Chief Operating Officer Sanjay Poonen told MarketWatch, about a conservative return to the office. \"This is sort of like a traffic jam -- you slow down, and then gradually regain speed. We will get back to normalcy.\"</p>\n<p>Tech companies -- among the first to ask employees to work from home during the pandemic -- are leading the return to the office by the fall. Their reopening plans offer a glimpse into office life of the next few years, with a heavy emphasis on a hybrid work model and three-day work weeks onsite, as well as no vaccine requirements. California's COVID-19 state of emergency order will remain in place beyond June 15, despite plans to fully reopen the state's economy on that date, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.</p>\n<p>\"Three days a week [in the office] is the new five,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWLO\">Twilio Inc</a>. (TWLO) Chief People Officer Christy Lake told MarketWatch, noting that 77% of the company's employees said they miss the office. \"The claims that 'the office is dead' are over-hyped. The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.\"</p>\n<p>Dynamic spaces will occupy a key part of Twilio's plans. The San Francisco-based company has revamped offices with specific areas for open collaboration, community and socializing, heads-down work, and flexible multipurpose spaces, said Lake, who added that some employees will trickle back to Twilio's Bay Area offices beginning July 14. Employees have the option of working from home throughout the year.</p>\n<p>Pre-pandemic, many in Silicon Valley were already on the path to a hybrid situation. Advances in videoconferencing technology and bandwidth had given them the luxury of working from home several days a week to avoid car-choked freeways. And employers were OK with the arrangement to scoop up talent from across the country. What COVID did was accelerate a work trend that was already clearly in motion, said Heather Kernahan, global CEO at PR agency Hotwire.</p>\n<p>\"It's not going 'back to work.' We've been working hard,\" Kernahan said. \"Thoughtful working is what you do, not where you go.\"</p>\n<p>An exodus back to the office is likely to occur by September, based on data collected by real-estate company Savills, which surveyed more than 120 tech companies in March. More than half said they expect to be back in the office by the third quarter of this calendar year.</p>\n<p>Silicon Valley's largest employers, sitting on millions of square feet of land they own, have been particularly aggressive in dictating when workers get back. How that pans out in an era when employees are increasingly outspoken about work conditions, including the option to work exclusively from home, bears watching, say labor experts.</p>\n<p>While employees at smaller companies have overwhelmingly shown a preference to return, those at Apple and other behemoths aren't so sure, given the large number of people congregating in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> place.</p>\n<p>Shortly after Apple Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> pronounced employees must work in the office at least three days a week (Monday, Tuesday and Thursday) beginning in early September -- including at Apple Park, the futuristic \"spaceship\"-like headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., that the company spent an estimated $5 billion to design and build -- some workers pushed back.</p>\n<p>\"We would like to take the opportunity to communicate a growing concern among our colleagues,\" Apple employees said in a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook. \"That Apple's remote/location-flexible work policy, and the communication around it, have already forced some of our colleagues to quit. Without the inclusivity that flexibility brings, many of us feel we have to choose between either a combination of our families, our well-being, and being empowered to do our best work, or being a part of Apple.\"</p>\n<p>Google parent Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>(GOOGL) said it expects about 20% of its workforce to remain fully remote this fall , while 60% will work a hybrid office/home mix.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc. (FB) employees have returned to a 10% maximum capacity at corporate headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., and other select San Francisco Bay Area offices. Facebook is likely to fully reopen most U.S. offices by October, and non-remote employees will work in offices at least half the time. The company and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) have said employees will be allowed to permanently work from home if their jobs allow for it.</p>\n<p>MarketWatch talked to at least 20 companies, and a handful, including Twilio and Box, require employees to be vaccinated before returning to the office. Facebook and Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, for example, only encourage employees to vaccinate.</p>\n<p>Others, however, have taken a more measured approach.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM.AU\">$(CRM.AU)$</a> reopened its first U.S. office, the Salesforce <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a> headquarters in San Francisco, in May. Offices in Palo Alto, Calif., and Irvine, Calif, will follow in the coming months. At the same time, the company extended the option for all employees to continue to work from home through the end of 2021.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">Okta Inc.</a> (OKTA) is shifting from large, campus-type locations serving regions to distributed offices based on where employees live. The new offices will function like Apple stores -- an \"experiential place\" where customers and partners can learn about products and chat with experts, and employees can collaborate as needed, an Okta spokeswoman told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOX\">Box Inc</a>. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOX.UK\">$(BOX.UK)$</a> is opening its San Francisco office in mid-July and its Redwood City, Calif., headquarters in early August at limited capacity, per local regulations. What its workers will encounter is a mix of assigned desks and hoteling, a form of office management in which workers schedule their use of desks, cubicles and offices. But travel remains prohibited until at least later this summer, and quarterly all-hands meetings will remain virtual through Feb. 1, 2022.</p>\n<p>Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">$(HPE)$</a> has divided its workforce into two classes: \"Edge\" workers will come to the office with their laptops once or twice a week for meetings, collaboration and culture. \"Office\" workers will maintain dedicated work stations and come to the office most days.</p>\n<p>German software giant SAP (SAP.XE), which has a Palo Alto, Calif., campus, opened its offices in late April at less than 5% daily capacity for \"employees who choose to return to the office for business critical needs,\" a spokesperson said.</p>\n<p>Then there are outliers like VMware Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>, where few employees currently work onsite. The company is offering employees the choice to permanently work from home as part of a digital-first approach. VMware prohibits meetings and events of more than 10 people at the office -- a policy that will remain in effect until at least July 30. Few employees are currently working at the office, according to the company.</p>\n<p>Boatsetter Inc., an online platform for boat rentals in Florida, went to the extreme and shed 6,000 feet of office space.</p>\n<p>Whether employees are entirely open to the idea of returning full-time in the foreseeable future is another matter.</p>\n<p>About <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in three (34%) working from home said they would look for a new job if forced to be in the office full time, and nearly half (49%) prefer a hybrid arrangement, according to a Robert Half poll of 1,000 U.S. workers in March .</p>\n<p>\"After a year of drastic change, many business leaders are eager to restore a sense of normalcy and welcome staff back to the office,\" said Paul McDonald, senior executive director at Robert Half. \"But reopening doors will bring new obstacles for companies to navigate. Not all employees will be ready -- or willing -- to return to the workplace, so staying flexible and responsive to their needs will be critical.\"</p>\n<p>Nearly nine in 10 employees (89%) say they want to be allowed to work remotely some or all of the time, according to a survey of almost 209,000 people in 190 countries by Boston Consulting Group and The Network.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How tech companies are bringing workers back to the office: Slowly and with 'social' incentives</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow tech companies are bringing workers back to the office: Slowly and with 'social' incentives\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-13 04:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'The claims that \"the office is dead\" are over-hyped,' Twilio executive says. 'The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.'</p>\n<p>As they return to work, employees of website platform Contentful Inc. are getting an eyeful of their new offices in Berlin and Denver and a realigned headquarters in San Francisco, which include hallmarks of the post-pandemic workplace -- a theater in Berlin and group rooms in San Francisco that are devoted to interactive meetings, with kitchen space doubled.</p>\n<p>\"We think the office is a social place first,\" Contentful Chief Executive Steve Sloan told MarketWatch. \"The office is where the great ideas are hatched -- especially in an idea-centric economy.\"</p>\n<p>Millions of tech workers are slowly making the migration back to offices as millions become fully vaccinated and states lift restrictions. At Contentful, all 550 employees, including Sloan, will continue to work from home most of the time, and occasionally venture into the office for socializing and collaboration.</p>\n<p>But many of those returning may not recognize the new digs, which are largely being designed to foster a nexus of ideas shared in theater-like settings and socially-distanced conference rooms, with specialized break-out areas for brainstorming and socializing. Workers will need to get used to the new office lingo of dynamic spaces and hoteling.</p>\n<p>\"It's about going into the tunnel, and coming out of the tunnel,\" VMware Chief Operating Officer Sanjay Poonen told MarketWatch, about a conservative return to the office. \"This is sort of like a traffic jam -- you slow down, and then gradually regain speed. We will get back to normalcy.\"</p>\n<p>Tech companies -- among the first to ask employees to work from home during the pandemic -- are leading the return to the office by the fall. Their reopening plans offer a glimpse into office life of the next few years, with a heavy emphasis on a hybrid work model and three-day work weeks onsite, as well as no vaccine requirements. California's COVID-19 state of emergency order will remain in place beyond June 15, despite plans to fully reopen the state's economy on that date, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.</p>\n<p>\"Three days a week [in the office] is the new five,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWLO\">Twilio Inc</a>. (TWLO) Chief People Officer Christy Lake told MarketWatch, noting that 77% of the company's employees said they miss the office. \"The claims that 'the office is dead' are over-hyped. The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.\"</p>\n<p>Dynamic spaces will occupy a key part of Twilio's plans. The San Francisco-based company has revamped offices with specific areas for open collaboration, community and socializing, heads-down work, and flexible multipurpose spaces, said Lake, who added that some employees will trickle back to Twilio's Bay Area offices beginning July 14. Employees have the option of working from home throughout the year.</p>\n<p>Pre-pandemic, many in Silicon Valley were already on the path to a hybrid situation. Advances in videoconferencing technology and bandwidth had given them the luxury of working from home several days a week to avoid car-choked freeways. And employers were OK with the arrangement to scoop up talent from across the country. What COVID did was accelerate a work trend that was already clearly in motion, said Heather Kernahan, global CEO at PR agency Hotwire.</p>\n<p>\"It's not going 'back to work.' We've been working hard,\" Kernahan said. \"Thoughtful working is what you do, not where you go.\"</p>\n<p>An exodus back to the office is likely to occur by September, based on data collected by real-estate company Savills, which surveyed more than 120 tech companies in March. More than half said they expect to be back in the office by the third quarter of this calendar year.</p>\n<p>Silicon Valley's largest employers, sitting on millions of square feet of land they own, have been particularly aggressive in dictating when workers get back. How that pans out in an era when employees are increasingly outspoken about work conditions, including the option to work exclusively from home, bears watching, say labor experts.</p>\n<p>While employees at smaller companies have overwhelmingly shown a preference to return, those at Apple and other behemoths aren't so sure, given the large number of people congregating in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> place.</p>\n<p>Shortly after Apple Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> pronounced employees must work in the office at least three days a week (Monday, Tuesday and Thursday) beginning in early September -- including at Apple Park, the futuristic \"spaceship\"-like headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., that the company spent an estimated $5 billion to design and build -- some workers pushed back.</p>\n<p>\"We would like to take the opportunity to communicate a growing concern among our colleagues,\" Apple employees said in a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook. \"That Apple's remote/location-flexible work policy, and the communication around it, have already forced some of our colleagues to quit. Without the inclusivity that flexibility brings, many of us feel we have to choose between either a combination of our families, our well-being, and being empowered to do our best work, or being a part of Apple.\"</p>\n<p>Google parent Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>(GOOGL) said it expects about 20% of its workforce to remain fully remote this fall , while 60% will work a hybrid office/home mix.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc. (FB) employees have returned to a 10% maximum capacity at corporate headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., and other select San Francisco Bay Area offices. Facebook is likely to fully reopen most U.S. offices by October, and non-remote employees will work in offices at least half the time. The company and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) have said employees will be allowed to permanently work from home if their jobs allow for it.</p>\n<p>MarketWatch talked to at least 20 companies, and a handful, including Twilio and Box, require employees to be vaccinated before returning to the office. Facebook and Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, for example, only encourage employees to vaccinate.</p>\n<p>Others, however, have taken a more measured approach.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM.AU\">$(CRM.AU)$</a> reopened its first U.S. office, the Salesforce <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a> headquarters in San Francisco, in May. Offices in Palo Alto, Calif., and Irvine, Calif, will follow in the coming months. At the same time, the company extended the option for all employees to continue to work from home through the end of 2021.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">Okta Inc.</a> (OKTA) is shifting from large, campus-type locations serving regions to distributed offices based on where employees live. The new offices will function like Apple stores -- an \"experiential place\" where customers and partners can learn about products and chat with experts, and employees can collaborate as needed, an Okta spokeswoman told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOX\">Box Inc</a>. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOX.UK\">$(BOX.UK)$</a> is opening its San Francisco office in mid-July and its Redwood City, Calif., headquarters in early August at limited capacity, per local regulations. What its workers will encounter is a mix of assigned desks and hoteling, a form of office management in which workers schedule their use of desks, cubicles and offices. But travel remains prohibited until at least later this summer, and quarterly all-hands meetings will remain virtual through Feb. 1, 2022.</p>\n<p>Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">$(HPE)$</a> has divided its workforce into two classes: \"Edge\" workers will come to the office with their laptops once or twice a week for meetings, collaboration and culture. \"Office\" workers will maintain dedicated work stations and come to the office most days.</p>\n<p>German software giant SAP (SAP.XE), which has a Palo Alto, Calif., campus, opened its offices in late April at less than 5% daily capacity for \"employees who choose to return to the office for business critical needs,\" a spokesperson said.</p>\n<p>Then there are outliers like VMware Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>, where few employees currently work onsite. The company is offering employees the choice to permanently work from home as part of a digital-first approach. VMware prohibits meetings and events of more than 10 people at the office -- a policy that will remain in effect until at least July 30. Few employees are currently working at the office, according to the company.</p>\n<p>Boatsetter Inc., an online platform for boat rentals in Florida, went to the extreme and shed 6,000 feet of office space.</p>\n<p>Whether employees are entirely open to the idea of returning full-time in the foreseeable future is another matter.</p>\n<p>About <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in three (34%) working from home said they would look for a new job if forced to be in the office full time, and nearly half (49%) prefer a hybrid arrangement, according to a Robert Half poll of 1,000 U.S. workers in March .</p>\n<p>\"After a year of drastic change, many business leaders are eager to restore a sense of normalcy and welcome staff back to the office,\" said Paul McDonald, senior executive director at Robert Half. \"But reopening doors will bring new obstacles for companies to navigate. Not all employees will be ready -- or willing -- to return to the workplace, so staying flexible and responsive to their needs will be critical.\"</p>\n<p>Nearly nine in 10 employees (89%) say they want to be allowed to work remotely some or all of the time, according to a survey of almost 209,000 people in 190 countries by Boston Consulting Group and The Network.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143788707","content_text":"'The claims that \"the office is dead\" are over-hyped,' Twilio executive says. 'The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.'\nAs they return to work, employees of website platform Contentful Inc. are getting an eyeful of their new offices in Berlin and Denver and a realigned headquarters in San Francisco, which include hallmarks of the post-pandemic workplace -- a theater in Berlin and group rooms in San Francisco that are devoted to interactive meetings, with kitchen space doubled.\n\"We think the office is a social place first,\" Contentful Chief Executive Steve Sloan told MarketWatch. \"The office is where the great ideas are hatched -- especially in an idea-centric economy.\"\nMillions of tech workers are slowly making the migration back to offices as millions become fully vaccinated and states lift restrictions. At Contentful, all 550 employees, including Sloan, will continue to work from home most of the time, and occasionally venture into the office for socializing and collaboration.\nBut many of those returning may not recognize the new digs, which are largely being designed to foster a nexus of ideas shared in theater-like settings and socially-distanced conference rooms, with specialized break-out areas for brainstorming and socializing. Workers will need to get used to the new office lingo of dynamic spaces and hoteling.\n\"It's about going into the tunnel, and coming out of the tunnel,\" VMware Chief Operating Officer Sanjay Poonen told MarketWatch, about a conservative return to the office. \"This is sort of like a traffic jam -- you slow down, and then gradually regain speed. We will get back to normalcy.\"\nTech companies -- among the first to ask employees to work from home during the pandemic -- are leading the return to the office by the fall. Their reopening plans offer a glimpse into office life of the next few years, with a heavy emphasis on a hybrid work model and three-day work weeks onsite, as well as no vaccine requirements. California's COVID-19 state of emergency order will remain in place beyond June 15, despite plans to fully reopen the state's economy on that date, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.\n\"Three days a week [in the office] is the new five,\" Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Chief People Officer Christy Lake told MarketWatch, noting that 77% of the company's employees said they miss the office. \"The claims that 'the office is dead' are over-hyped. The truth is that the reasons people come into the physical office are changing.\"\nDynamic spaces will occupy a key part of Twilio's plans. The San Francisco-based company has revamped offices with specific areas for open collaboration, community and socializing, heads-down work, and flexible multipurpose spaces, said Lake, who added that some employees will trickle back to Twilio's Bay Area offices beginning July 14. Employees have the option of working from home throughout the year.\nPre-pandemic, many in Silicon Valley were already on the path to a hybrid situation. Advances in videoconferencing technology and bandwidth had given them the luxury of working from home several days a week to avoid car-choked freeways. And employers were OK with the arrangement to scoop up talent from across the country. What COVID did was accelerate a work trend that was already clearly in motion, said Heather Kernahan, global CEO at PR agency Hotwire.\n\"It's not going 'back to work.' We've been working hard,\" Kernahan said. \"Thoughtful working is what you do, not where you go.\"\nAn exodus back to the office is likely to occur by September, based on data collected by real-estate company Savills, which surveyed more than 120 tech companies in March. More than half said they expect to be back in the office by the third quarter of this calendar year.\nSilicon Valley's largest employers, sitting on millions of square feet of land they own, have been particularly aggressive in dictating when workers get back. How that pans out in an era when employees are increasingly outspoken about work conditions, including the option to work exclusively from home, bears watching, say labor experts.\nWhile employees at smaller companies have overwhelmingly shown a preference to return, those at Apple and other behemoths aren't so sure, given the large number of people congregating in one place.\nShortly after Apple Inc. $(AAPL)$ pronounced employees must work in the office at least three days a week (Monday, Tuesday and Thursday) beginning in early September -- including at Apple Park, the futuristic \"spaceship\"-like headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., that the company spent an estimated $5 billion to design and build -- some workers pushed back.\n\"We would like to take the opportunity to communicate a growing concern among our colleagues,\" Apple employees said in a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook. \"That Apple's remote/location-flexible work policy, and the communication around it, have already forced some of our colleagues to quit. Without the inclusivity that flexibility brings, many of us feel we have to choose between either a combination of our families, our well-being, and being empowered to do our best work, or being a part of Apple.\"\nGoogle parent Alphabet Inc. $(GOOGL)$(GOOGL) said it expects about 20% of its workforce to remain fully remote this fall , while 60% will work a hybrid office/home mix.\nFacebook Inc. (FB) employees have returned to a 10% maximum capacity at corporate headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., and other select San Francisco Bay Area offices. Facebook is likely to fully reopen most U.S. offices by October, and non-remote employees will work in offices at least half the time. The company and Twitter Inc. (TWTR) have said employees will be allowed to permanently work from home if their jobs allow for it.\nMarketWatch talked to at least 20 companies, and a handful, including Twilio and Box, require employees to be vaccinated before returning to the office. Facebook and Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, for example, only encourage employees to vaccinate.\nOthers, however, have taken a more measured approach.\nSalesforce.com Inc. $(CRM.AU)$ reopened its first U.S. office, the Salesforce Tower headquarters in San Francisco, in May. Offices in Palo Alto, Calif., and Irvine, Calif, will follow in the coming months. At the same time, the company extended the option for all employees to continue to work from home through the end of 2021.\nOkta Inc. (OKTA) is shifting from large, campus-type locations serving regions to distributed offices based on where employees live. The new offices will function like Apple stores -- an \"experiential place\" where customers and partners can learn about products and chat with experts, and employees can collaborate as needed, an Okta spokeswoman told MarketWatch.\nBox Inc. $(BOX.UK)$ is opening its San Francisco office in mid-July and its Redwood City, Calif., headquarters in early August at limited capacity, per local regulations. What its workers will encounter is a mix of assigned desks and hoteling, a form of office management in which workers schedule their use of desks, cubicles and offices. But travel remains prohibited until at least later this summer, and quarterly all-hands meetings will remain virtual through Feb. 1, 2022.\nHewlett Packard Enterprise Co. $(HPE)$ has divided its workforce into two classes: \"Edge\" workers will come to the office with their laptops once or twice a week for meetings, collaboration and culture. \"Office\" workers will maintain dedicated work stations and come to the office most days.\nGerman software giant SAP (SAP.XE), which has a Palo Alto, Calif., campus, opened its offices in late April at less than 5% daily capacity for \"employees who choose to return to the office for business critical needs,\" a spokesperson said.\nThen there are outliers like VMware Inc. $(VMW)$, where few employees currently work onsite. The company is offering employees the choice to permanently work from home as part of a digital-first approach. VMware prohibits meetings and events of more than 10 people at the office -- a policy that will remain in effect until at least July 30. Few employees are currently working at the office, according to the company.\nBoatsetter Inc., an online platform for boat rentals in Florida, went to the extreme and shed 6,000 feet of office space.\nWhether employees are entirely open to the idea of returning full-time in the foreseeable future is another matter.\nAbout one in three (34%) working from home said they would look for a new job if forced to be in the office full time, and nearly half (49%) prefer a hybrid arrangement, according to a Robert Half poll of 1,000 U.S. workers in March .\n\"After a year of drastic change, many business leaders are eager to restore a sense of normalcy and welcome staff back to the office,\" said Paul McDonald, senior executive director at Robert Half. \"But reopening doors will bring new obstacles for companies to navigate. Not all employees will be ready -- or willing -- to return to the workplace, so staying flexible and responsive to their needs will be critical.\"\nNearly nine in 10 employees (89%) say they want to be allowed to work remotely some or all of the time, according to a survey of almost 209,000 people in 190 countries by Boston Consulting Group and The Network.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186414447,"gmtCreate":1623521058089,"gmtModify":1704205454635,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186414447","repostId":"1104635261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186401260,"gmtCreate":1623515846150,"gmtModify":1704205407876,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186401260","repostId":"1189143522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189143522","pubTimestamp":1623513679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189143522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 00:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189143522","media":"Barron's","summary":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that h","content":"<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p>\n<p>In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p>\n<p>Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p>\n<p>The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p>\n<p>Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p>\n<p>But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p>\n<p>Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 00:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189143522","content_text":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.\nSnowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.\nThe long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.\nCanaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.\nBut Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”\nLikewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188870185,"gmtCreate":1623429867347,"gmtModify":1704203622097,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Where do you think the price will reach end of the June? They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June compare to May. How do you think?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f623189a7be81b2034dcee9df9e2eb","width":"1080","height":"2189"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188870185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574725761275496","authorId":"3574725761275496","name":"Nio_high","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968fdf799b5e66798bb7786be794dca3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June","text":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June","html":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166327041,"gmtCreate":1623993054683,"gmtModify":1703825989495,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How do you think? Comment please~","listText":"How do you think? Comment please~","text":"How do you think? Comment please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166327041","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569982147441048","authorId":"3569982147441048","name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$","text":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$","html":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock. $Alibaba(BABA)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889966584,"gmtCreate":1631104489748,"gmtModify":1676530468307,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378dd153640126f0da3a32a2871a213","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889966584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569982147441048","authorId":"3569982147441048","name":"Billie Lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de8913068819a9735f0bb22ec7a5e72","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","text":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check.","html":"Patience and discipline is a virtue that will benefit all traders, keeping emotion and snap judgments in check."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188870185,"gmtCreate":1623429867347,"gmtModify":1704203622097,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Where do you think the price will reach end of the June? They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June compare to May. How do you think?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f623189a7be81b2034dcee9df9e2eb","width":"1080","height":"2189"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188870185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574725761275496","authorId":"3574725761275496","name":"Nio_high","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968fdf799b5e66798bb7786be794dca3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June","text":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June","html":"Nearly 13,000 units were delivered in June"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884162666,"gmtCreate":1631868516755,"gmtModify":1676530657164,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;many stocks started to rebound","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;many stocks started to rebound","text":"$Square(SQ)$ many stocks started to rebound","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba16a74643d4be49e628fe5b93f0d87","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884162666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient.","text":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient.","html":"They are a very disruptive company with a good future ahead in an ever growing industry. Dont panic sell and be patient."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869723287,"gmtCreate":1632323085349,"gmtModify":1676530753532,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;today goes up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square(SQ)$</a>&nbsp;today goes up","text":"$Square(SQ)$ today goes up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e876a74e1e35e1fab0345e7433a90719","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869723287","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear.","text":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear.","html":"Identifying exit points is key, both to limit downside losses and to take profits before those opportunities disappear."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803337,"gmtCreate":1626416698029,"gmtModify":1703759756652,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0c2b8e72dff4f4842c2590bf313412","width":"1080","height":"4176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170803337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568592803065563","authorId":"3568592803065563","name":"yinfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a23c5020f38941c73ef9797c191ba65","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]","text":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]","html":"Calm down and have a Chinese hornet [pick your nose] [pick your nose] [pick your nose]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123878743,"gmtCreate":1624418395182,"gmtModify":1703836077570,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2722e12b554309e1402d0b3b1f8b5a","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123878743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890904361,"gmtCreate":1628072758553,"gmtModify":1703500677708,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890904361","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1703499292702,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807919017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087448384989520","authorId":"4087448384989520","name":"Joyce5914","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c227995f1a2accf642bce8af292e9e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise","text":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise","html":"Good to hold but need patient as always affected by political noise"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189093449,"gmtCreate":1623230701181,"gmtModify":1704198854562,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>My favourite. Steady&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>My favourite. Steady&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$My favourite. Steady","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be64c7a4f99dc729f53c247c3b6fb399","width":"1080","height":"2288"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189093449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567569305700081","authorId":"3567569305700081","name":"Helmix","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f67f5b1eccce9618b63dbee2d5f47d83","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Should I buy more? !","text":"Should I buy more? !","html":"Should I buy more? !"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816299608,"gmtCreate":1630502394604,"gmtModify":1676530321629,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~?","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$premarket ❤️ up more please~?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec0204d9af77142fa8aa53a60fc79ff","width":"1080","height":"2741"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816299608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811730213,"gmtCreate":1630344831832,"gmtModify":1676530276781,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy ??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy ??","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$This stock is crazy ??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137a708327204bbc2b71fe2e19665290","width":"1080","height":"2642"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811730213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581686650032769","authorId":"3581686650032769","name":"Mr凡凡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f90b19678878f062e15d5a34dbdc36","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON","text":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON","html":"Crazy what , read news , AMAZON"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880995991,"gmtCreate":1631006406313,"gmtModify":1676530440431,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","text":"$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8121056b0b13493686fa65c3d4ee0c","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880995991","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167289407,"gmtCreate":1624270554809,"gmtModify":1703832051937,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc912bcb850e7afa73208d227b55c19","width":"1080","height":"2492"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167289407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185102757,"gmtCreate":1623635570879,"gmtModify":1704207429071,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185102757","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>\n <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>\n <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>\n <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>\n <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p>\n<p>If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p>\n<p>Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p>\n<p>If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p>\n<p>If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation</b></p>\n<p>By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p>\n<p>Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p>\n<p>So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p>\n<p>We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p>\n<p><b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p>\n<p>The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p>\n<p>Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p>\n<p>Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p>\n<p>Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p>\n<p><b>Chart Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p>\n<p>This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p>\n<p>If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p>\n<p>We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p>\n<p>Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>\n <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>\n <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>\n <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>\n <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p>\n<p><b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p>\n<p>If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186414447,"gmtCreate":1623521058089,"gmtModify":1704205454635,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186414447","repostId":"1104635261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104635261","pubTimestamp":1623470020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104635261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104635261","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Enter","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p>\n<p>Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p>\n<p>The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p>\n<p>The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p>\n<p>Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p>\n<p>As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p>\n<p>Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p>\n<p>“Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p>\n<p>Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p>\n<p>It was a day too late.</p>\n<p>AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p>\n<p>Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p>\n<p>The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p>\n<p>Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p>\n<p>But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p>\n<p>Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p>\n<p>Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p>\n<p>Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p>\n<p>Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104635261","content_text":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.\nMudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.\nThe development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.\nJason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.\nAs part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.\nMudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.\n“Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.\nInside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.\nIt was a day too late.\nAMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.\nMr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.\nThe impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.\nMr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.\nBut distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.\nMr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.\nDay traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.\nAround that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.\nMr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815580682,"gmtCreate":1630691980846,"gmtModify":1676530378277,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815580682","repostId":"2164829181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166325545,"gmtCreate":1623992990387,"gmtModify":1703825987366,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","listText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","text":"Do you think it started to goes up?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03336ebfbc967a1c9659755184c8afc","width":"1080","height":"2387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166325545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114040242,"gmtCreate":1623038395686,"gmtModify":1704194805582,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114040242","repostId":"1170185754","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}