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2022-07-26

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2022-04-22

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23:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"宋雪涛：二季度的主要交易逻辑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227206966","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一季度，国内的主要矛盾在分子，年初以来地产销售塌方、基建持币观望、疫情扩散，政策没有兑现稳的预期，经济还停留在「滞」，预期走弱，情绪回落，A股的交易逻辑是重建信心。一季度，美国的主要矛盾在分母，政策兑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一季度，国内的主要矛盾在分子，</b>年初以来地产销售塌方、基建持币观望、疫情扩散，政策没有兑现稳的预期，经济还停留在「滞」，预期走弱，情绪回落，A股的交易逻辑是重建信心。</p><p><b>一季度，美国的主要矛盾在分母，</b>政策兑现了紧的预期，进入加息周期，利率快速上升，<b>美股的交易逻辑是消化估值。</b></p><p><b>二季度是一季度的延伸，内外市场定价的核心矛盾没有明显变化：</b>国内的焦点仍是分子，美国的焦点仍是分母。</p><p>市场是根据一致预期之外的边际变化来定价的，因此对市场来说，<b>重要的不是现状，而是边际变化。</b></p><p><b>二季度，国内市场有两个重要的边际变化。</b></p><p>一是疫情影响的持续性、深度和广度可能超过2020年，二季度经济数据可能二次探底。</p><p><b>二是对冲政策加码的预期再次上升。</b></p><p>二季度政策加码可能有几个发力点：第一是房地产在需求端放松「五限」，因城施策的范围进一步扩大。第二是货币政策降准降息，加大结构性再贷款的力度。第三是财政政策从「够上限」转为「兜下限」，政策抓手从基建投资转向「六保」、一揽子纾困和刺激消费等。</p><p><b>二季度，国内市场定价的核心矛盾是强预期和弱现实之间的博弈。</b></p><p><b>博弈意味着市场难以出现趋势和主线，而是反复震荡，消化乐观预期和悲观现实。</b></p><p>二季度，在宽松政策（地产、货币、财政）的强预期下，情绪回升，但疫情压制和地产尚无起色的经济数据，又制约了市场的反弹空间。</p><p>股市的底部往往是政策底-情绪底-市场底-基本面底。预计二季度的市场，会在强政策预期下情绪反弹，又在弱基本面现实下二次回调。</p><p><b>二季度的结构配置，是「2+X」。</b></p><p><b>「2」对应的是滞胀环境下，能跑赢胀和跑赢滞的两类资产。</b>一头在上游，缺乏长期资本开支，产能的价值重估；一头在成长，处于产业高速发展期，增速不降反升。</p><p><b>「X」由疫情和油价的走势决定。</b>二季度，疫情和油价向上，受益的是医药、地产、银行、上游能源、油服，受损的是消费、中下游制造。</p><p>复杂的宏观环境下，胜率并不清晰，随时可能因环境变化而改变，因此估值和确定性比景气度更重要。</p><p><b>二季度，美国市场也有两个重要的边际变化。</b></p><p><b>一是紧缩进入实质性提速阶段。</b></p><p><b>虽然一季度联储的鹰派预期已经白热化，但也只不过加了25bp。</b>从二季度开始，加息进入实质性提速阶段。如果5月和6月的两次议息会议各加息50bp，并叠加上限950亿美元的缩表，短端利率会开始上升。</p><p>在高油价的助推下，联储出于对公信力的维护，选择先解决「胀」，再解决「滞」。由于这次联储大幅落后于通胀曲线，不排除未来更鹰，缩表节奏更快（这可能是市场目前还没有完全定价的），甚至经济出现衰退迹象也没有及时转为谨慎，那么美债利率可能超调至2.5-3.0%。</p><p><b>二是美国经济衰退的预期正在增强。</b></p><p>过去30年，美债2年和10年利率的5次倒挂，对应了5次著名的危机。除了98年与19年外，其余三次，联储都在倒挂发生后3-6个月停止了加息。</p><p>目前重要的美国经济数据均已回落（消费、投资、地产），最新的核心通胀环比低于预期，反映居民实际可支配收入和实际消费力正在被过度透支和被高油价蚕食，密歇根消费者信心指数低迷，地产投资增速已经转负，非住宅投资增速大概率进入下行周期。</p><p><b>二季度，美国市场定价的核心矛盾是分母和分子的风险可能同时出现，陷入联储紧缩压制通胀和经济显现衰退迹象的两难。</b></p><p><b>因此美股的风险更大。</b></p><p>既要用加息压制通胀，又要实现经济「软着陆」，大概率希望渺茫。虽然联储还不需要立即做出选择，可以继续保持鹰派立场并观察核心通胀、经济增速以及金融市场的变化，但最终将从对抗通胀转向对抗衰退，转向只是时间问题。</p><p>二季度，美股分子的重要性上升，随着衰退的逐渐临近，盈利开始出现预期差，此时利空才开始兑现。尽管分母的短期路径上存在超预期紧缩的可能，但在紧缩周期中，美债利率的快速上升吸引了资金回流，美元强势将会延续，美股在全球权益市场中相对压力最小。</p><p>结构上，分子和分母同时承压，但市场情绪还不至于悲观，因此景气度和估值比确定性更重要。能源、公用事业、消费服务、医疗、房地产等景气板块可能还有一季报公布后的资金流入，但指数会承受估值过高和收益低于预期的调整压力。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宋雪涛：二季度的主要交易逻辑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-14 23:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/521601><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一季度，国内的主要矛盾在分子，年初以来地产销售塌方、基建持币观望、疫情扩散，政策没有兑现稳的预期，经济还停留在「滞」，预期走弱，情绪回落，A股的交易逻辑是重建信心。一季度，美国的主要矛盾在分母，政策兑现了紧的预期，进入加息周期，利率快速上升，美股的交易逻辑是消化估值。二季度是一季度的延伸，内外市场定价的核心矛盾没有明显变化：国内的焦点仍是分子，美国的焦点仍是分母。市场是根据一致预期之外的边际变化来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/521601\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/521601","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2227206966","content_text":"一季度，国内的主要矛盾在分子，年初以来地产销售塌方、基建持币观望、疫情扩散，政策没有兑现稳的预期，经济还停留在「滞」，预期走弱，情绪回落，A股的交易逻辑是重建信心。一季度，美国的主要矛盾在分母，政策兑现了紧的预期，进入加息周期，利率快速上升，美股的交易逻辑是消化估值。二季度是一季度的延伸，内外市场定价的核心矛盾没有明显变化：国内的焦点仍是分子，美国的焦点仍是分母。市场是根据一致预期之外的边际变化来定价的，因此对市场来说，重要的不是现状，而是边际变化。二季度，国内市场有两个重要的边际变化。一是疫情影响的持续性、深度和广度可能超过2020年，二季度经济数据可能二次探底。二是对冲政策加码的预期再次上升。二季度政策加码可能有几个发力点：第一是房地产在需求端放松「五限」，因城施策的范围进一步扩大。第二是货币政策降准降息，加大结构性再贷款的力度。第三是财政政策从「够上限」转为「兜下限」，政策抓手从基建投资转向「六保」、一揽子纾困和刺激消费等。二季度，国内市场定价的核心矛盾是强预期和弱现实之间的博弈。博弈意味着市场难以出现趋势和主线，而是反复震荡，消化乐观预期和悲观现实。二季度，在宽松政策（地产、货币、财政）的强预期下，情绪回升，但疫情压制和地产尚无起色的经济数据，又制约了市场的反弹空间。股市的底部往往是政策底-情绪底-市场底-基本面底。预计二季度的市场，会在强政策预期下情绪反弹，又在弱基本面现实下二次回调。二季度的结构配置，是「2+X」。「2」对应的是滞胀环境下，能跑赢胀和跑赢滞的两类资产。一头在上游，缺乏长期资本开支，产能的价值重估；一头在成长，处于产业高速发展期，增速不降反升。「X」由疫情和油价的走势决定。二季度，疫情和油价向上，受益的是医药、地产、银行、上游能源、油服，受损的是消费、中下游制造。复杂的宏观环境下，胜率并不清晰，随时可能因环境变化而改变，因此估值和确定性比景气度更重要。二季度，美国市场也有两个重要的边际变化。一是紧缩进入实质性提速阶段。虽然一季度联储的鹰派预期已经白热化，但也只不过加了25bp。从二季度开始，加息进入实质性提速阶段。如果5月和6月的两次议息会议各加息50bp，并叠加上限950亿美元的缩表，短端利率会开始上升。在高油价的助推下，联储出于对公信力的维护，选择先解决「胀」，再解决「滞」。由于这次联储大幅落后于通胀曲线，不排除未来更鹰，缩表节奏更快（这可能是市场目前还没有完全定价的），甚至经济出现衰退迹象也没有及时转为谨慎，那么美债利率可能超调至2.5-3.0%。二是美国经济衰退的预期正在增强。过去30年，美债2年和10年利率的5次倒挂，对应了5次著名的危机。除了98年与19年外，其余三次，联储都在倒挂发生后3-6个月停止了加息。目前重要的美国经济数据均已回落（消费、投资、地产），最新的核心通胀环比低于预期，反映居民实际可支配收入和实际消费力正在被过度透支和被高油价蚕食，密歇根消费者信心指数低迷，地产投资增速已经转负，非住宅投资增速大概率进入下行周期。二季度，美国市场定价的核心矛盾是分母和分子的风险可能同时出现，陷入联储紧缩压制通胀和经济显现衰退迹象的两难。因此美股的风险更大。既要用加息压制通胀，又要实现经济「软着陆」，大概率希望渺茫。虽然联储还不需要立即做出选择，可以继续保持鹰派立场并观察核心通胀、经济增速以及金融市场的变化，但最终将从对抗通胀转向对抗衰退，转向只是时间问题。二季度，美股分子的重要性上升，随着衰退的逐渐临近，盈利开始出现预期差，此时利空才开始兑现。尽管分母的短期路径上存在超预期紧缩的可能，但在紧缩周期中，美债利率的快速上升吸引了资金回流，美元强势将会延续，美股在全球权益市场中相对压力最小。结构上，分子和分母同时承压，但市场情绪还不至于悲观，因此景气度和估值比确定性更重要。能源、公用事业、消费服务、医疗、房地产等景气板块可能还有一季报公布后的资金流入，但指数会承受估值过高和收益低于预期的调整压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}