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impervious

impervious

typical Singaporean. Financial Freedom is being content, doesn't mean having a lot of money.

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2022-12-15

In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat. [Miser]

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2022-12-02

Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.

Palantir: This Is Ridiculous

2022-11-29

If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄

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2022-11-29

1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.

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2022-11-27

Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))

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2022-11-23

Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.

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2022-11-23

Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.

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2022-11-22

Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).

Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?

2022-11-22

Long BABA

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat.&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat.&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat. [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921252351","repostId":"1145285433","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965228622,"gmtCreate":1669964606567,"gmtModify":1676538279524,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","listText":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","text":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965228622","repostId":"2288960327","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288960327","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669956916,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288960327?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 12:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is Ridiculous","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288960327","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634e2ce29264d31e7def366b057723ba\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering about the fate of Palantir&#39;s other portfolio companies. In light of this new risk factor, certain bears argue that Palantir&#39;s stock can plummet to $5 per share in the coming year. While this seems like a logical argument, it leaves a lot to be addressed even still. In this article, I&#39;ll attempt to explain why the on the ground reality isn&#39;t as dismal and why Palantir amounts to a buying opportunity on dips.</p><h2><b>The Bear Case</b></h2><p>There&#39;s no denying that we&#39;re in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Rampant inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Fed are weighing down on the margin profiles and hampering the growth rates of nearly all companies. While most companies are running lean by cutting back on discretionary spending, the unlucky few are succumbing to the liquidity crunch and are starting to go bankrupt. This is where Palantir comes in.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s top brass made investments in nearly two dozen privately held and public companies. Some of these investees would then sign master agreements with Palantir, that would typically be worth more than the investment in the first place, for using the latter&#39;s software. I won&#39;t comment whether that&#39;s coercion or a smart business move on the investee&#39;s part, and invite readers to share their thoughts on the same. But as far as Palantir is concerned, this deal structure made a lot of financial sense.</p><p>Fast forward to November 2022 and one of Palantir&#39;s investees in particular, Fast Radius, went bankrupt. Fast Radius had signed a $45 million contract with Palantir that would be spread out over a 6-year time frame and, in exchange, Palantir had invested $20 million in the company. But with Fast Radius filing for bankruptcy, Palantir&#39;s investment in the company and its average annualized revenue contribution of roughly $7.5 million are likely now worthless.</p><p>The bear case is that more of Palantir&#39;s investees could go bankrupt given the challenging macroeconomic environment. This would not only erode Palantir&#39;s initial investment in them, but would also hurt its revenue pipeline and eliminate any cash distributions that might otherwise originate from these investees in the future. As it is, Palantir&#39;s portfolio is doing poorly and a liquidity crunch could further push these companies on the brink of bankruptcy. So, it&#39;s understandable why Palantir&#39;s investors are panicking.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/30/4893391-16698051258633738.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><h2><b>The Ground Reality</b></h2><p>I would like to first clarify that the bear case is entirely speculative in nature and there is absolutely zero evidence to support the claim that more of Palantir&#39;s portfolio companies will go bankrupt in the next 12 months. It has been a tough year so far and shares of technology companies have been hammered down across the globe, but that does not necessarily mean a broad swath of these companies will go out of business. I&#39;d argue that if the macroeconomic environment were to deteriorate as much as the bears believe, then its fallout will be felt globally and it&#39;d trigger mass bankruptcies for a lot many listed companies, regardless of whether Palantir has invested in them or not. So, I view this bear case as fearmongering at best.</p><p>Secondly, note that Palantir&#39;s revenue from its investee companies amounted to just 5.9% of its total revenue last quarter. The chart below indicates that this figure is relatively lower than the peak figure of 8.8% two quarters ago. Also, note how the revenue generated from these investee firms has dropped $28.1 million last quarter, dropping for 2 quarters straight. The point that I&#39;m trying to make here is that even if all the investee companies went bankrupt at once, like the extreme bear case suggests, even then Palantir&#39;s revenue would likely drop by 6% at worst. So, the ground reality isn&#39;t as dire for Palantir, as some commenters are making it out to be.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/30/4893391-16698063238797498.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><p>Third, bears are arguing that Palantir&#39;s shares will be worth $5 to factor in light of this bankruptcy risk but I feel this number has been pulled out of thin air. Palantir&#39;s shares opened at $8.44 apiece on November 14, before these bankruptcy-related fears had sunk in. Since then, the stock is down nearly 17% and its market cap is down roughly $3 billion. If the stock were to plunge to $5 apiece as the bears are projecting, then it would equate to a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion since November 14.</p><p>For a maximum quarterly revenue loss of roughly $28.1 million, or annualized revenue loss of $112 million, expecting a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion is an overtly bearish projection. It implies that Palantir&#39;s market cap will drop 60-times the lost investee revenue, which is absurd given the stock is currently trading at 8-times its trailing twelve-month revenue.</p><p>To put it in another way, the complete erosion of $112 million worth of annualized investee revenue should lead to a market cap erosion of $896 million at Palantir&#39;s currently prevalent 8-times Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiple, but the bears are rooting for $7.3 billion worth of market cap destruction at a 60-times multiple instead. This seems like a gross miscalculation or an extreme exaggeration in the prevalent bear case.</p><p>Lastly, Palantir&#39;s marketable securities amounted to just $57.3 million as on September 30, 2022 per its latest 10Q filing. This relatively miniscule figure doesn&#39;t contribute much towards justifying the $7.3 billion worth of market cap erosion either.</p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2><p>The takeaway here is that the bear case is unlikely to materialize anytime soon. It exaggerates the bankruptcy risk for Palantir&#39;s investees and the stock is unlikely to drop down to $5 apiece because of it.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f4391584292811018188c05d439471f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s important to note that Palantir&#39;s shares are trading at 8-times the company&#39;s trailing twelve month sales which is quite attractive when looking at industry comparables. There are several other software companies that are growing just as fast as Palantir, or slower, but trading at even higher multiples. So, I argue that Palantir&#39;s shares are attractively valued at current levels. Investors with a multi-year time horizon can consider accumulating Palantir&#39;s shares should it drop significantly and abruptly in coming weeks. As far as I&#39;m concerned, I remain bullish on Palantir (as outlined here and here). Good Luck!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is Ridiculous</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is Ridiculous\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-02 12:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561548-palantir-this-is-ridiculous","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2288960327","content_text":"It seems like Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is once again surrounded by fear, uncertainty and doubt. One of its investees and customer, Fast Radius, went bankrupt earlier this month and investors are pondering about the fate of Palantir's other portfolio companies. In light of this new risk factor, certain bears argue that Palantir's stock can plummet to $5 per share in the coming year. While this seems like a logical argument, it leaves a lot to be addressed even still. In this article, I'll attempt to explain why the on the ground reality isn't as dismal and why Palantir amounts to a buying opportunity on dips.The Bear CaseThere's no denying that we're in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Rampant inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Fed are weighing down on the margin profiles and hampering the growth rates of nearly all companies. While most companies are running lean by cutting back on discretionary spending, the unlucky few are succumbing to the liquidity crunch and are starting to go bankrupt. This is where Palantir comes in.Palantir's top brass made investments in nearly two dozen privately held and public companies. Some of these investees would then sign master agreements with Palantir, that would typically be worth more than the investment in the first place, for using the latter's software. I won't comment whether that's coercion or a smart business move on the investee's part, and invite readers to share their thoughts on the same. But as far as Palantir is concerned, this deal structure made a lot of financial sense.Fast forward to November 2022 and one of Palantir's investees in particular, Fast Radius, went bankrupt. Fast Radius had signed a $45 million contract with Palantir that would be spread out over a 6-year time frame and, in exchange, Palantir had invested $20 million in the company. But with Fast Radius filing for bankruptcy, Palantir's investment in the company and its average annualized revenue contribution of roughly $7.5 million are likely now worthless.The bear case is that more of Palantir's investees could go bankrupt given the challenging macroeconomic environment. This would not only erode Palantir's initial investment in them, but would also hurt its revenue pipeline and eliminate any cash distributions that might otherwise originate from these investees in the future. As it is, Palantir's portfolio is doing poorly and a liquidity crunch could further push these companies on the brink of bankruptcy. So, it's understandable why Palantir's investors are panicking.BusinessQuant.comThe Ground RealityI would like to first clarify that the bear case is entirely speculative in nature and there is absolutely zero evidence to support the claim that more of Palantir's portfolio companies will go bankrupt in the next 12 months. It has been a tough year so far and shares of technology companies have been hammered down across the globe, but that does not necessarily mean a broad swath of these companies will go out of business. I'd argue that if the macroeconomic environment were to deteriorate as much as the bears believe, then its fallout will be felt globally and it'd trigger mass bankruptcies for a lot many listed companies, regardless of whether Palantir has invested in them or not. So, I view this bear case as fearmongering at best.Secondly, note that Palantir's revenue from its investee companies amounted to just 5.9% of its total revenue last quarter. The chart below indicates that this figure is relatively lower than the peak figure of 8.8% two quarters ago. Also, note how the revenue generated from these investee firms has dropped $28.1 million last quarter, dropping for 2 quarters straight. The point that I'm trying to make here is that even if all the investee companies went bankrupt at once, like the extreme bear case suggests, even then Palantir's revenue would likely drop by 6% at worst. So, the ground reality isn't as dire for Palantir, as some commenters are making it out to be.BusinessQuant.comThird, bears are arguing that Palantir's shares will be worth $5 to factor in light of this bankruptcy risk but I feel this number has been pulled out of thin air. Palantir's shares opened at $8.44 apiece on November 14, before these bankruptcy-related fears had sunk in. Since then, the stock is down nearly 17% and its market cap is down roughly $3 billion. If the stock were to plunge to $5 apiece as the bears are projecting, then it would equate to a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion since November 14.For a maximum quarterly revenue loss of roughly $28.1 million, or annualized revenue loss of $112 million, expecting a market cap erosion of $7.3 billion is an overtly bearish projection. It implies that Palantir's market cap will drop 60-times the lost investee revenue, which is absurd given the stock is currently trading at 8-times its trailing twelve-month revenue.To put it in another way, the complete erosion of $112 million worth of annualized investee revenue should lead to a market cap erosion of $896 million at Palantir's currently prevalent 8-times Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiple, but the bears are rooting for $7.3 billion worth of market cap destruction at a 60-times multiple instead. This seems like a gross miscalculation or an extreme exaggeration in the prevalent bear case.Lastly, Palantir's marketable securities amounted to just $57.3 million as on September 30, 2022 per its latest 10Q filing. This relatively miniscule figure doesn't contribute much towards justifying the $7.3 billion worth of market cap erosion either.Final ThoughtsThe takeaway here is that the bear case is unlikely to materialize anytime soon. It exaggerates the bankruptcy risk for Palantir's investees and the stock is unlikely to drop down to $5 apiece because of it.BusinessQuant.comIt's important to note that Palantir's shares are trading at 8-times the company's trailing twelve month sales which is quite attractive when looking at industry comparables. There are several other software companies that are growing just as fast as Palantir, or slower, but trading at even higher multiples. So, I argue that Palantir's shares are attractively valued at current levels. Investors with a multi-year time horizon can consider accumulating Palantir's shares should it drop significantly and abruptly in coming weeks. As far as I'm concerned, I remain bullish on Palantir (as outlined here and here). Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962941185,"gmtCreate":1669707754147,"gmtModify":1676538226542,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","listText":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","text":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962941185","repostId":"1108840166","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962943929,"gmtCreate":1669707091262,"gmtModify":1676538226401,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","listText":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","text":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962943929","repostId":"2287511245","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966691378,"gmtCreate":1669512889294,"gmtModify":1676538202920,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","listText":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","text":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966691378","repostId":"2286765353","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968634187,"gmtCreate":1669204085350,"gmtModify":1676538166922,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","listText":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","text":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968634187","repostId":"1168042484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968876036,"gmtCreate":1669192612825,"gmtModify":1676538165224,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","listText":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","text":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968876036","repostId":"2285863595","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968309067,"gmtCreate":1669118775060,"gmtModify":1676538154552,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","listText":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","text":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968309067","repostId":"2285069770","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285069770","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669104452,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285069770?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285069770","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla's Q3'22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flo","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.</li><li>The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are rising.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu</span></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen a strong rebound in production and delivery growth in Q3 2022, which has translated into surging free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) for the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) company. I believe Tesla’s soaring free cash flow and improving free cash flow conversion could ultimately result in a strong upwards revaluation of the firm’s shares. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have lost about half of their value due to many interrelated factors such as factory shutdowns in China, supply chain challenges, as well as inflation which is making raw materials more expensive. Since Tesla experienced a strong production rebound in Q3’22, I believe Tesla’s valuation has become too cheap given its prospects in the electric vehicle industry, and I consider the risk profile heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82789eb75255682f7592d3e9b3c9550\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Tesla beat Q3&#39;22 earnings</h2><p>Tesla reported Q3 2022 results in October which, based off of earnings, were better than expected. Tesla remained solidly profitable in the third quarter and reported EPS of $1.05, which beat the consensus of $1.00 per share. Revenues slightly disappointed, however.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfa8f1ab48d0fc683d664981a99773\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha: Tesla Q3&#39;22 Results</span></p><h2>Massive production rebound in Q3’22</h2><p>Tesla produced 365,923 electric vehicles in the third quarter, showing an increase of 42% quarter-over-quarter as production came back online after COVID-19 outbreaks forced factory shutdowns in the previous quarter. About 95% of Tesla&#39;s Q3&#39;22 production volume related to the Model 3/Y. Total deliveries in Q3’22 were 343,830, showing 35% quarter-over-quarter growth. Tesla achieved these results due to better factory utilization, as well as strong volume growth driven by robust customer demand for Tesla’s electric vehicle products.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b247e22241721fc6d09698c5b572dd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: InsideEVs</span></p><h2>Model 3/Y production ramp resulted in massive free cash flow rebound</h2><p>The ramp of the Model 3/Y is driving Tesla’s free cash flow growth, and although Tesla experienced a drop-off in revenues and FCF in Q2’22, the third quarter brought a lot of lost production volume back. As a result, Tesla is likely going to see new production and delivery records in Q4’22. I estimate that Tesla could produce between 380-390 thousand electric vehicles just in the fourth quarter and cross the 400 thousand EV production threshold in Q1’23. Tesla also said that it expects about 50% annual growth in production this year.</p><p>Tesla achieved $3,297M in free cash flow in Q3’22 on total revenues of $21.5B, which calculates to an FCF margin of 15.4%… which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla&#39;s Q3&#39;22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion. The FCF conversion ratio -- which shows how much money of its operating cash flow gets “converted” into free cash flow - improved from 26.4% in Q2’22 to 64.6% in Q3’22. The improved conversion rate shows that Tesla’s Q3’22 production rebound has fundamentally improved the company’s free cash flow prospects.</p><p>Now that Tesla’s production, especially of the Model 3/Y, has resumed, I believe Tesla’s new baseline level of quarterly free cash flow is $2.7B to $3.3B.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>$ in millions</p></td><td><p>Q3&#39;21</p></td><td><p>Q4&#39;21</p></td><td><p>Q1&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Q2&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Q3&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Y/Y Growth</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Total revenues</p></td><td><p>$13,757</p></td><td><p>$17,719</p></td><td><p>$18,756</p></td><td><p>$16,934</p></td><td><p>$21,454</p></td><td><p>55.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Net cash from operating activities</p></td><td><p>$3,147</p></td><td><p>$4,585</p></td><td><p>$3,995</p></td><td><p>$2,351</p></td><td><p>$5,100</p></td><td><p>62.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Capital expenditures</p></td><td><p>($1,819)</p></td><td><p>($1,810)</p></td><td><p>($1,767)</p></td><td><p>($1,730)</p></td><td><p>($1,803)</p></td><td><p>-0.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free cash flow</p></td><td><p>$1,328</p></td><td><p>$2,775</p></td><td><p>$2,228</p></td><td><p>$621</p></td><td><p>$3,297</p></td><td><p>148.3%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free cash flow margin</p></td><td><p>9.7%</p></td><td><p>15.7%</p></td><td><p>11.9%</p></td><td><p>3.7%</p></td><td><p>15.4%</p></td><td><p>59.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>OCF-FCF conversion</p></td><td><p>42.2%</p></td><td><p>60.5%</p></td><td><p>55.8%</p></td><td><p>26.4%</p></td><td><p>64.6%</p></td><td><p>53.2%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Author)</p><p>A company’s free cash flow can be used in three ways: (1) repayment of debt, (2) investments in new products and innovation, and (3) for stock buybacks and dividends. For Tesla, I believe points (2) and (3) will be the relevant ones going forward. Tesla is ramping up EV production rapidly, and free cash flow generated from growing deliveries is set to be used for the ramp of the Model 3/Y and the development/market introduction of the Cybertruck, which is expected to become available in mid-2023.</p><p>Additionally, Elon Musk has started to play around with the idea of buying back $5-10B worth of Tesla stock which would be the first-ever stock buyback for the electric vehicle company. A stock buyback is usually seen as a sign that management sees its shares as undervalued, and it could push shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Given that Tesla&#39;s shares have revalued to the downside by nearly 50% this year, I believe the introduction of a share buyback could help ease the negative sentiment overhang that has been created for Tesla&#39;s shares as well.</p><h2>Growth in operating income margin despite industry challenges</h2><p>Besides improved free cash flow margins, Tesla has seen growth in its operating margins, which has been partly driven by higher volumes and higher average selling prices. Despite lower levels of production due to COVID-19 and massive supply-chain challenges earlier this year, Tesla has successfully navigated these circumstances and managed to grow its operating income margins to 17.2%, showing a 2.6 PP improvement over Q2’22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0f3f66102ed1712c059f0173fa3986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tesla</span></p><h2>Tesla’s valuation is cheap</h2><p>Tesla’s valuation is not outrageous considering how quickly the company is ramping up deliveries and revenues. The expectation is for Tesla to sell $117.6B worth of product in FY 2023 which implies an annual revenue growth rate of 41%. Additionally, estimates for Tesla’s forward revenues have increased in FY 2022, showing growing analyst confidence in Tesla’s production ramp, especially regarding the Model 3 and Model Y. Based off of revenues of $117.6B, shares of Tesla trade at a P-S ratio of 4.8 X... which is significantly significantly below the 1-year average of 7.9 X.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a5c96ed543c16f9afa926d6b72b65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla&#39;s shares are also attractively valued based off of earnings... considering that Tesla is already profitable - it generated $3.3B in Q3&#39;22 profits - and that production is ramping up. Tesla has a P/E ratio of 31.3 X which is not crazy for an EV company that is already generating big profits.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fbe5c4e500a9d012367e7a8455593c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla has also begun hiring new staff in November for the Cybertruck, which is Tesla&#39;s next EV product. Tesla is going to produce the Cybertruck at the Gigafactory in Texas with production expected to commence in FY 2023. The Cybertruck already has way more than 1M in reservations and the introduction of Tesla&#39;s newest model could be an upside catalyst for Tesla&#39;s shares.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s valuation compared to other EV companies may be considered high, but the EV company is the uncontested market leader in the electric vehicle industry and has an unrivaled output volume. No other EV company has the scale, capitalization, product lineup, and production footprint of Tesla.</p><p>Most of Tesla&#39;s competition consists of smaller start-ups that serve clearly-defined niches, such as pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, or premium-class sedans. Tesla&#39;s shares, however, due to the near-50% down-side revaluation in 2022, are now even cheaper than shares of Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN)... and Tesla is profitable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d36ef4c5d0c93be730fb43ab50145f1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Risks with Tesla</h2><p>The biggest commercial risk that I see with Tesla is a slowdown regarding the production ramp of the Model 3 and Model Y or delays with the production of the Cybertruck. High inflation, which makes raw materials more expensive, as well as continual supply chain disruptions are risks for Tesla and the stock as well. I would change my mind about Tesla if the company went through new unforeseen production bottlenecks regarding the Model 3/Y ramp or if the company experienced a steep drop-off in free cash flow.</p><h2>Limited recession impact, Taiwan risk</h2><p>I believe a recession would not have a major impact on Tesla’s potential in the EV market because the regulatory environment and customer attitudes have strongly shifted in favor of electric vehicles in recent years, including in China whose government has said it plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. However, because Tesla has built a giga-factory in Shanghai to serve Chinese demand for electric vehicles, the EV company is exposed to political risks in the event of a larger China-Taiwan conflict.</p><h2>Final thoughts</h2><p>Tesla’s production accomplishments and free cash flow growth in Q3&#39;22 are underrated, especially the improving free cash flow conversion ratio. What makes Tesla attractive as an EV investment is the low valuation based off of earnings, the strong free cash flow rebound and the nearing Cybertruck production start which could revive interest in Tesla. A potential stock buyback of up to $10B could also send shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Considering that Tesla shares have lost near-50% of their value this year, I believe the risk profile is heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><i>This article is written by The Asian Investor for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.Tesla's valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285069770","content_text":"SummaryTesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.Tesla's valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are rising.Xiaolu ChuTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen a strong rebound in production and delivery growth in Q3 2022, which has translated into surging free cash flow (\"FCF\") for the electric vehicle (\"EV\") company. I believe Tesla’s soaring free cash flow and improving free cash flow conversion could ultimately result in a strong upwards revaluation of the firm’s shares. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have lost about half of their value due to many interrelated factors such as factory shutdowns in China, supply chain challenges, as well as inflation which is making raw materials more expensive. Since Tesla experienced a strong production rebound in Q3’22, I believe Tesla’s valuation has become too cheap given its prospects in the electric vehicle industry, and I consider the risk profile heavily skewed to the upside!Data by YChartsTesla beat Q3'22 earningsTesla reported Q3 2022 results in October which, based off of earnings, were better than expected. Tesla remained solidly profitable in the third quarter and reported EPS of $1.05, which beat the consensus of $1.00 per share. Revenues slightly disappointed, however.Seeking Alpha: Tesla Q3'22 ResultsMassive production rebound in Q3’22Tesla produced 365,923 electric vehicles in the third quarter, showing an increase of 42% quarter-over-quarter as production came back online after COVID-19 outbreaks forced factory shutdowns in the previous quarter. About 95% of Tesla's Q3'22 production volume related to the Model 3/Y. Total deliveries in Q3’22 were 343,830, showing 35% quarter-over-quarter growth. Tesla achieved these results due to better factory utilization, as well as strong volume growth driven by robust customer demand for Tesla’s electric vehicle products.Source: InsideEVsModel 3/Y production ramp resulted in massive free cash flow reboundThe ramp of the Model 3/Y is driving Tesla’s free cash flow growth, and although Tesla experienced a drop-off in revenues and FCF in Q2’22, the third quarter brought a lot of lost production volume back. As a result, Tesla is likely going to see new production and delivery records in Q4’22. I estimate that Tesla could produce between 380-390 thousand electric vehicles just in the fourth quarter and cross the 400 thousand EV production threshold in Q1’23. Tesla also said that it expects about 50% annual growth in production this year.Tesla achieved $3,297M in free cash flow in Q3’22 on total revenues of $21.5B, which calculates to an FCF margin of 15.4%… which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla's Q3'22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion. The FCF conversion ratio -- which shows how much money of its operating cash flow gets “converted” into free cash flow - improved from 26.4% in Q2’22 to 64.6% in Q3’22. The improved conversion rate shows that Tesla’s Q3’22 production rebound has fundamentally improved the company’s free cash flow prospects.Now that Tesla’s production, especially of the Model 3/Y, has resumed, I believe Tesla’s new baseline level of quarterly free cash flow is $2.7B to $3.3B.$ in millionsQ3'21Q4'21Q1'22Q2'22Q3'22Y/Y GrowthTotal revenues$13,757$17,719$18,756$16,934$21,45455.9%Net cash from operating activities$3,147$4,585$3,995$2,351$5,10062.1%Capital expenditures($1,819)($1,810)($1,767)($1,730)($1,803)-0.9%Free cash flow$1,328$2,775$2,228$621$3,297148.3%Free cash flow margin9.7%15.7%11.9%3.7%15.4%59.2%OCF-FCF conversion42.2%60.5%55.8%26.4%64.6%53.2%(Source: Author)A company’s free cash flow can be used in three ways: (1) repayment of debt, (2) investments in new products and innovation, and (3) for stock buybacks and dividends. For Tesla, I believe points (2) and (3) will be the relevant ones going forward. Tesla is ramping up EV production rapidly, and free cash flow generated from growing deliveries is set to be used for the ramp of the Model 3/Y and the development/market introduction of the Cybertruck, which is expected to become available in mid-2023.Additionally, Elon Musk has started to play around with the idea of buying back $5-10B worth of Tesla stock which would be the first-ever stock buyback for the electric vehicle company. A stock buyback is usually seen as a sign that management sees its shares as undervalued, and it could push shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Given that Tesla's shares have revalued to the downside by nearly 50% this year, I believe the introduction of a share buyback could help ease the negative sentiment overhang that has been created for Tesla's shares as well.Growth in operating income margin despite industry challengesBesides improved free cash flow margins, Tesla has seen growth in its operating margins, which has been partly driven by higher volumes and higher average selling prices. Despite lower levels of production due to COVID-19 and massive supply-chain challenges earlier this year, Tesla has successfully navigated these circumstances and managed to grow its operating income margins to 17.2%, showing a 2.6 PP improvement over Q2’22.Source: TeslaTesla’s valuation is cheapTesla’s valuation is not outrageous considering how quickly the company is ramping up deliveries and revenues. The expectation is for Tesla to sell $117.6B worth of product in FY 2023 which implies an annual revenue growth rate of 41%. Additionally, estimates for Tesla’s forward revenues have increased in FY 2022, showing growing analyst confidence in Tesla’s production ramp, especially regarding the Model 3 and Model Y. Based off of revenues of $117.6B, shares of Tesla trade at a P-S ratio of 4.8 X... which is significantly significantly below the 1-year average of 7.9 X.Data by YChartsTesla's shares are also attractively valued based off of earnings... considering that Tesla is already profitable - it generated $3.3B in Q3'22 profits - and that production is ramping up. Tesla has a P/E ratio of 31.3 X which is not crazy for an EV company that is already generating big profits.Data by YChartsTesla has also begun hiring new staff in November for the Cybertruck, which is Tesla's next EV product. Tesla is going to produce the Cybertruck at the Gigafactory in Texas with production expected to commence in FY 2023. The Cybertruck already has way more than 1M in reservations and the introduction of Tesla's newest model could be an upside catalyst for Tesla's shares.Tesla's valuation compared to other EV companies may be considered high, but the EV company is the uncontested market leader in the electric vehicle industry and has an unrivaled output volume. No other EV company has the scale, capitalization, product lineup, and production footprint of Tesla.Most of Tesla's competition consists of smaller start-ups that serve clearly-defined niches, such as pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, or premium-class sedans. Tesla's shares, however, due to the near-50% down-side revaluation in 2022, are now even cheaper than shares of Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN)... and Tesla is profitable.Data by YChartsRisks with TeslaThe biggest commercial risk that I see with Tesla is a slowdown regarding the production ramp of the Model 3 and Model Y or delays with the production of the Cybertruck. High inflation, which makes raw materials more expensive, as well as continual supply chain disruptions are risks for Tesla and the stock as well. I would change my mind about Tesla if the company went through new unforeseen production bottlenecks regarding the Model 3/Y ramp or if the company experienced a steep drop-off in free cash flow.Limited recession impact, Taiwan riskI believe a recession would not have a major impact on Tesla’s potential in the EV market because the regulatory environment and customer attitudes have strongly shifted in favor of electric vehicles in recent years, including in China whose government has said it plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. However, because Tesla has built a giga-factory in Shanghai to serve Chinese demand for electric vehicles, the EV company is exposed to political risks in the event of a larger China-Taiwan conflict.Final thoughtsTesla’s production accomplishments and free cash flow growth in Q3'22 are underrated, especially the improving free cash flow conversion ratio. What makes Tesla attractive as an EV investment is the low valuation based off of earnings, the strong free cash flow rebound and the nearing Cybertruck production start which could revive interest in Tesla. A potential stock buyback of up to $10B could also send shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Considering that Tesla shares have lost near-50% of their value this year, I believe the risk profile is heavily skewed to the upside!This article is written by The Asian Investor for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968942246,"gmtCreate":1669112940286,"gmtModify":1676538153922,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long BABA","listText":"Long BABA","text":"Long BABA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968942246","repostId":"2285888215","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582020830270271","authorId":"3582020830270271","name":"tkj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4db3635974ce189ed8129eca6b5b618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582020830270271","authorIdStr":"3582020830270271"},"content":"long or wrong baba","text":"long or wrong baba","html":"long or wrong baba"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9921252351,"gmtCreate":1671071789174,"gmtModify":1676538485338,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat.&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat.&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"In Dec 2019, few thought that TSLA would become a 1T company. This dip is like a second chance for those who missed the first boat. [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921252351","repostId":"1145285433","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145285433","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1671070064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145285433?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Sells Tesla Shares Worth $3.58 Billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145285433","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 14  - Tesla IncChief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold 22 million shares worth $3.58 billion in the electric-vehicle maker this week, a U.S. securities filing showed on Wednesday.The latest sale, Musk's second since his $44 billion purchase of Twitter in October, brings the total Tesla stocks sold by the billionaire to nearly $40 billion over the past year.He now owns 13.4% of the world's most valuable carmaker, according to Refinitiv data.Investor concerns that Musk's purchase of Twitter","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 14 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold 22 million shares worth $3.58 billion in the electric-vehicle maker this week, a U.S. securities filing showed on Wednesday.</p><p>The latest sale, Musk&#39;s second since his $44 billion purchase of Twitter in October, brings the total Tesla stocks sold by the billionaire to nearly $40 billion over the past year.</p><p>He now owns 13.4% of the world&#39;s most valuable carmaker, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Investor concerns that Musk&#39;s purchase of Twitter could divert his time away from Tesla have driven down shares of the company more than 60% in 2022, making it one of the worst-performing stocks among major automakers and tech firms this year.</p><p>The stock hit its lowest in over two years last night.</p><p>Musk, who recently lost his title as the world&#39;s richest person, unloaded shares over three days between Monday and Wednesday, according to the filing.</p><p>Tesla did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours.</p><p>The latest share sale comes a month after Musk sold shares worth $4 billion in Tesla days after he closed the Twitter deal.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Sells Tesla Shares Worth $3.58 Billion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-15 10:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 14 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold 22 million shares worth $3.58 billion in the electric-vehicle maker this week, a U.S. securities filing showed on Wednesday.</p><p>The latest sale, Musk&#39;s second since his $44 billion purchase of Twitter in October, brings the total Tesla stocks sold by the billionaire to nearly $40 billion over the past year.</p><p>He now owns 13.4% of the world&#39;s most valuable carmaker, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Investor concerns that Musk&#39;s purchase of Twitter could divert his time away from Tesla have driven down shares of the company more than 60% in 2022, making it one of the worst-performing stocks among major automakers and tech firms this year.</p><p>The stock hit its lowest in over two years last night.</p><p>Musk, who recently lost his title as the world&#39;s richest person, unloaded shares over three days between Monday and Wednesday, according to the filing.</p><p>Tesla did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours.</p><p>The latest share sale comes a month after Musk sold shares worth $4 billion in Tesla days after he closed the Twitter deal.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145285433","content_text":"Dec 14 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has sold 22 million shares worth $3.58 billion in the electric-vehicle maker this week, a U.S. securities filing showed on Wednesday.The latest sale, Musk's second since his $44 billion purchase of Twitter in October, brings the total Tesla stocks sold by the billionaire to nearly $40 billion over the past year.He now owns 13.4% of the world's most valuable carmaker, according to Refinitiv data.Investor concerns that Musk's purchase of Twitter could divert his time away from Tesla have driven down shares of the company more than 60% in 2022, making it one of the worst-performing stocks among major automakers and tech firms this year.The stock hit its lowest in over two years last night.Musk, who recently lost his title as the world's richest person, unloaded shares over three days between Monday and Wednesday, according to the filing.Tesla did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours.The latest share sale comes a month after Musk sold shares worth $4 billion in Tesla days after he closed the Twitter deal.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968634187,"gmtCreate":1669204085350,"gmtModify":1676538166922,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","listText":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","text":"Buy the rumour (now), sell the news. Exit at closer to 200. Fast in/Fast out. But hold some for 10x by 2026.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968634187","repostId":"1168042484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168042484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669207575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168042484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168042484","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in mar","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two months</li><li>Morgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgrades</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d786e2fc285c0e8faa9755ba109fa5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Elon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFP</span></p><p>After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts say the share-price decline has gone far enough.</p><p>Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said on Wednesday that Tesla is approaching his “bear case” price target of $150, presenting an opportunity for investors to buy at a bargain price. Citi analysts upgraded the shares to neutral from sell, saying that a more than 50% slump this year “has balanced out the near-term risk/reward.”</p><p>Despite challenges including decelerating demand andprice cutsin China, Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars, Jonas wrote in a note. The analyst -- who also highlighted Tesla’s potential to benefit from consumer tax credits in the US -- reiterated his $330 price target.</p><p>Shares rose as much as 1.9% in premarket trading to $173.11. The stock has slumped this year amid rising raw materials costs,issueswith production and sales in China and pressure on customer budgets. Latterly, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s focus on turning around Twitter Inc. has also hit sentiment, with $300 billion wiped off Tesla’s market cap in the past two months, according to Bloomberg calculations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28418b2c1e10b82bdeec4788d9133a29\" tg-width=\"1235\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The distraction caused by Twitter needs to end to stop the stock slide, according to Jonas. “There must be some form of sentiment ‘circuit breaker’ around the Twitter situation to calm investor concerns around Tesla,” he wrote.</p><p>Despite all of the challenges Tesla has faced this year, Wall Street has mainly stayed bullish. The majority of Tesla analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock a buy or equivalent, while the shares would need to rally a whopping 80% to hit the median analyst target price. This year’s slump has left the stock trading at 31 times forward earnings, down from more than 200 times in early 2021.</p><p>Citi analyst Itay Michaeli, who upgraded the stock on Wednesday, has one of the lowest price targets on the Street, at $176. The analyst said he was turning more positive because Tesla’s slump means that some of the overly-bullish expectations in the stock, including on unit sales, have now been priced out.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 20:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168042484","content_text":"Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts say the share-price decline has gone far enough.Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said on Wednesday that Tesla is approaching his “bear case” price target of $150, presenting an opportunity for investors to buy at a bargain price. Citi analysts upgraded the shares to neutral from sell, saying that a more than 50% slump this year “has balanced out the near-term risk/reward.”Despite challenges including decelerating demand andprice cutsin China, Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars, Jonas wrote in a note. The analyst -- who also highlighted Tesla’s potential to benefit from consumer tax credits in the US -- reiterated his $330 price target.Shares rose as much as 1.9% in premarket trading to $173.11. The stock has slumped this year amid rising raw materials costs,issueswith production and sales in China and pressure on customer budgets. Latterly, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s focus on turning around Twitter Inc. has also hit sentiment, with $300 billion wiped off Tesla’s market cap in the past two months, according to Bloomberg calculations.The distraction caused by Twitter needs to end to stop the stock slide, according to Jonas. “There must be some form of sentiment ‘circuit breaker’ around the Twitter situation to calm investor concerns around Tesla,” he wrote.Despite all of the challenges Tesla has faced this year, Wall Street has mainly stayed bullish. The majority of Tesla analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock a buy or equivalent, while the shares would need to rally a whopping 80% to hit the median analyst target price. This year’s slump has left the stock trading at 31 times forward earnings, down from more than 200 times in early 2021.Citi analyst Itay Michaeli, who upgraded the stock on Wednesday, has one of the lowest price targets on the Street, at $176. The analyst said he was turning more positive because Tesla’s slump means that some of the overly-bullish expectations in the stock, including on unit sales, have now been priced out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966691378,"gmtCreate":1669512889294,"gmtModify":1676538202920,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","listText":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","text":"Prices are inflated. Spent 9Bn but true value of items purchased may be less than last year's. :))","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966691378","repostId":"2286765353","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286765353","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669511917,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286765353?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record $9 Billion Despite High Inflation- Adobe Analytics","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286765353","media":"Kalkine Media","summary":"Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc's data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> Inc&#39;s data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite deals starting as early as October.</p><p>Adobe Analytics, which measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions at websites, has access to data covering purchases at 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the United States.</p><p>It had forecast Black Friday sales to rise a modest 1%.</p><p>Adobe expects Cyber Monday to be the season&#39;s biggest online shopping day again, driving $11.2 billion in spend.</p><p>Consumers were expected to flock to stores after the pandemic put a dampener on in-store shopping over the past two years, but Black Friday morning saw stores draw less traffic than usual with sporadic rain in some parts of the country.</p><p>Americans turned to smartphones to make their holiday purchases, with data from Adobe showing mobile shopping represented 48% of all Black Friday digital sales.</p></body></html>","source":"kalkinemedia_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record $9 Billion Despite High Inflation- Adobe Analytics</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record $9 Billion Despite High Inflation- Adobe Analytics\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://kalkinemedia.com/news/world-news/us-black-friday-online-sales-hit-record-9-billion-despite-high-inflation-adobe-analytics><strong>Kalkine Media</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc's data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://kalkinemedia.com/news/world-news/us-black-friday-online-sales-hit-record-9-billion-despite-high-inflation-adobe-analytics\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://kalkinemedia.com/news/world-news/us-black-friday-online-sales-hit-record-9-billion-despite-high-inflation-adobe-analytics","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286765353","content_text":"Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc's data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite deals starting as early as October.Adobe Analytics, which measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions at websites, has access to data covering purchases at 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the United States.It had forecast Black Friday sales to rise a modest 1%.Adobe expects Cyber Monday to be the season's biggest online shopping day again, driving $11.2 billion in spend.Consumers were expected to flock to stores after the pandemic put a dampener on in-store shopping over the past two years, but Black Friday morning saw stores draw less traffic than usual with sporadic rain in some parts of the country.Americans turned to smartphones to make their holiday purchases, with data from Adobe showing mobile shopping represented 48% of all Black Friday digital sales.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968309067,"gmtCreate":1669118775060,"gmtModify":1676538154552,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","listText":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","text":"Long TSLA. Grab now, don't miss the boat (again).","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968309067","repostId":"2285069770","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968942246,"gmtCreate":1669112940286,"gmtModify":1676538153922,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long BABA","listText":"Long BABA","text":"Long BABA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968942246","repostId":"2285888215","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285888215","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1669111363,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285888215?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 18:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China Set to Fine Ant Group Over $1 Billion, Signalling Revamp Nears End-Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285888215","media":"Reuters","summary":"HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are poised to impose a fine of more than $1 billio","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are poised to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on Jack Ma&#39;s Ant Group, said six sources with direct knowledge of the matter, setting the stage for ending the fintech company&#39;s two-year long regulatory overhaul.</p><p>The People&#39;s Bank of China (PBOC), which has been driving the revamp at Ant after the Chinese firm&#39;s $37 billion IPO was scuttled at the last minute in 2020, is the regulator that is readying the fine, said five of the sources.</p><p>The central bank has been in informal communication with Ant about the fine over the past few months, said three of the sources. It plans to hold more discussions with other regulators about Ant&#39;s revamp later this year and announce the fine as soon as the second quarter of next year, said a source.</p><p>A fine on Ant could help pave the way for the company to secure a long-awaited financial holding company license, seek growth again, and eventually revive its plans for a public market debut.</p><p>Ant&#39;s fine would be the largest regulatory penalty imposed on a Chinese internet company since ride-hailing major Didi Global was fined $1.2 billion by China&#39;s cybersecurity regulator in July.</p><p>The fintech firm&#39;s affiliate, e-commerce titan Alibaba Group, last year received a record fine of 18 billion yuan ($2.51 billion) for antitrust violations.</p><p>The penalties are part of Beijing&#39;s sweeping crackdown on the country&#39;s tech behemoths that has sliced hundreds of billions of dollars off their values and shrunk revenues and profits.</p><p>But Chinese authorities have in recent months softened their tone on the tech crackdown amid efforts to bolster an economy that has been hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A fine will likely focus on Ant&#39;s alleged violations relating to a &#34;disorderly expansion of capital&#34; and the corresponding financial risks its once freewheeling businesses have caused, said one of the sources.</p><p>Ant and the PBOC did not respond to Reuters&#39; requests for comment.</p><p>All the sources spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.</p><h2>BUSINESS OVERHAUL</h2><p>Chinese authorities abruptly pulled the plug on Ant&#39;s IPO, which was set to be the world&#39;s biggest, in November 2020 soon after billionaire founder Ma publicly criticised China&#39;s regulatory system for stifling innovation.</p><p>In the months since then, regulators set about reining in Ma&#39;s empire, starting with the antitrust probe into Alibaba. Ma, one of China&#39;s most successful and influential businessmen, has largely remained out of public view since the crackdown.</p><p>The regulators also pushed Ant, whose businesses span payment processing, consumer lending and insurance products distribution, to revamp its business structure and bring it under tighter regulatory supervision.</p><p>Ant has been formally undergoing a sweeping business overhaul since April last year which includes turning itself into a financial holding firm, subject to rules and capital requirements similar to those for banks.</p><p>The overhaul includes folding Ant&#39;s two lucrative micro-loan businesses into a consumer finance unit and sharing its treasure trove of data on more than 1 billion users with state firms, a move expected to curb its profitability and valuation by curtailing some of its businesses.</p><p>The penalty on Ant, however, is unlikely to be finalised till China appoints a number of top officials at the State Council and other government bodies next year, said four of the sources.</p><p>While China&#39;s ruling Communist Party wrapped up its twice-a-decade congress and central leadership reshuffle last month, top posts at the cabinet and government bodies are still subject to changes, which typically take place at the annual meeting of parliament in early March.</p><p>The central bank&#39;s chief, Yi Gang, 64, is likely to step down as he nears the official retirement age of 65 for minister-level officials.</p><p>China&#39;s State Council Information Office, which handles media queries for the cabinet, did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Just before Ant&#39;s IPO dust-up, the central bank officially issued rules to regulate the country&#39;s vast and often complex financial holdings companies, as part of its efforts to rein in systemic financial risks.</p><p>It has so far approved the establishment of three such firms including China CITIC Financial Holdings.</p><p>The central bank&#39;s local branch in the eastern city of Hangzhou, home to Ant&#39;s headquarters, received the firm&#39;s application to set up a financial holding company in June, two of the six sources and a separate person said.</p><p>The PBOC, however, is unlikely to formally disclose the application till Ant wraps up its revamp, added the sources.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Set to Fine Ant Group Over $1 Billion, Signalling Revamp Nears End-Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Set to Fine Ant Group Over $1 Billion, Signalling Revamp Nears End-Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-22 18:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are poised to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on Jack Ma&#39;s Ant Group, said six sources with direct knowledge of the matter, setting the stage for ending the fintech company&#39;s two-year long regulatory overhaul.</p><p>The People&#39;s Bank of China (PBOC), which has been driving the revamp at Ant after the Chinese firm&#39;s $37 billion IPO was scuttled at the last minute in 2020, is the regulator that is readying the fine, said five of the sources.</p><p>The central bank has been in informal communication with Ant about the fine over the past few months, said three of the sources. It plans to hold more discussions with other regulators about Ant&#39;s revamp later this year and announce the fine as soon as the second quarter of next year, said a source.</p><p>A fine on Ant could help pave the way for the company to secure a long-awaited financial holding company license, seek growth again, and eventually revive its plans for a public market debut.</p><p>Ant&#39;s fine would be the largest regulatory penalty imposed on a Chinese internet company since ride-hailing major Didi Global was fined $1.2 billion by China&#39;s cybersecurity regulator in July.</p><p>The fintech firm&#39;s affiliate, e-commerce titan Alibaba Group, last year received a record fine of 18 billion yuan ($2.51 billion) for antitrust violations.</p><p>The penalties are part of Beijing&#39;s sweeping crackdown on the country&#39;s tech behemoths that has sliced hundreds of billions of dollars off their values and shrunk revenues and profits.</p><p>But Chinese authorities have in recent months softened their tone on the tech crackdown amid efforts to bolster an economy that has been hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A fine will likely focus on Ant&#39;s alleged violations relating to a &#34;disorderly expansion of capital&#34; and the corresponding financial risks its once freewheeling businesses have caused, said one of the sources.</p><p>Ant and the PBOC did not respond to Reuters&#39; requests for comment.</p><p>All the sources spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.</p><h2>BUSINESS OVERHAUL</h2><p>Chinese authorities abruptly pulled the plug on Ant&#39;s IPO, which was set to be the world&#39;s biggest, in November 2020 soon after billionaire founder Ma publicly criticised China&#39;s regulatory system for stifling innovation.</p><p>In the months since then, regulators set about reining in Ma&#39;s empire, starting with the antitrust probe into Alibaba. Ma, one of China&#39;s most successful and influential businessmen, has largely remained out of public view since the crackdown.</p><p>The regulators also pushed Ant, whose businesses span payment processing, consumer lending and insurance products distribution, to revamp its business structure and bring it under tighter regulatory supervision.</p><p>Ant has been formally undergoing a sweeping business overhaul since April last year which includes turning itself into a financial holding firm, subject to rules and capital requirements similar to those for banks.</p><p>The overhaul includes folding Ant&#39;s two lucrative micro-loan businesses into a consumer finance unit and sharing its treasure trove of data on more than 1 billion users with state firms, a move expected to curb its profitability and valuation by curtailing some of its businesses.</p><p>The penalty on Ant, however, is unlikely to be finalised till China appoints a number of top officials at the State Council and other government bodies next year, said four of the sources.</p><p>While China&#39;s ruling Communist Party wrapped up its twice-a-decade congress and central leadership reshuffle last month, top posts at the cabinet and government bodies are still subject to changes, which typically take place at the annual meeting of parliament in early March.</p><p>The central bank&#39;s chief, Yi Gang, 64, is likely to step down as he nears the official retirement age of 65 for minister-level officials.</p><p>China&#39;s State Council Information Office, which handles media queries for the cabinet, did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Just before Ant&#39;s IPO dust-up, the central bank officially issued rules to regulate the country&#39;s vast and often complex financial holdings companies, as part of its efforts to rein in systemic financial risks.</p><p>It has so far approved the establishment of three such firms including China CITIC Financial Holdings.</p><p>The central bank&#39;s local branch in the eastern city of Hangzhou, home to Ant&#39;s headquarters, received the firm&#39;s application to set up a financial holding company in June, two of the six sources and a separate person said.</p><p>The PBOC, however, is unlikely to formally disclose the application till Ant wraps up its revamp, added the sources.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285888215","content_text":"HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are poised to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on Jack Ma's Ant Group, said six sources with direct knowledge of the matter, setting the stage for ending the fintech company's two-year long regulatory overhaul.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), which has been driving the revamp at Ant after the Chinese firm's $37 billion IPO was scuttled at the last minute in 2020, is the regulator that is readying the fine, said five of the sources.The central bank has been in informal communication with Ant about the fine over the past few months, said three of the sources. It plans to hold more discussions with other regulators about Ant's revamp later this year and announce the fine as soon as the second quarter of next year, said a source.A fine on Ant could help pave the way for the company to secure a long-awaited financial holding company license, seek growth again, and eventually revive its plans for a public market debut.Ant's fine would be the largest regulatory penalty imposed on a Chinese internet company since ride-hailing major Didi Global was fined $1.2 billion by China's cybersecurity regulator in July.The fintech firm's affiliate, e-commerce titan Alibaba Group, last year received a record fine of 18 billion yuan ($2.51 billion) for antitrust violations.The penalties are part of Beijing's sweeping crackdown on the country's tech behemoths that has sliced hundreds of billions of dollars off their values and shrunk revenues and profits.But Chinese authorities have in recent months softened their tone on the tech crackdown amid efforts to bolster an economy that has been hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic.A fine will likely focus on Ant's alleged violations relating to a \"disorderly expansion of capital\" and the corresponding financial risks its once freewheeling businesses have caused, said one of the sources.Ant and the PBOC did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment.All the sources spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.BUSINESS OVERHAULChinese authorities abruptly pulled the plug on Ant's IPO, which was set to be the world's biggest, in November 2020 soon after billionaire founder Ma publicly criticised China's regulatory system for stifling innovation.In the months since then, regulators set about reining in Ma's empire, starting with the antitrust probe into Alibaba. Ma, one of China's most successful and influential businessmen, has largely remained out of public view since the crackdown.The regulators also pushed Ant, whose businesses span payment processing, consumer lending and insurance products distribution, to revamp its business structure and bring it under tighter regulatory supervision.Ant has been formally undergoing a sweeping business overhaul since April last year which includes turning itself into a financial holding firm, subject to rules and capital requirements similar to those for banks.The overhaul includes folding Ant's two lucrative micro-loan businesses into a consumer finance unit and sharing its treasure trove of data on more than 1 billion users with state firms, a move expected to curb its profitability and valuation by curtailing some of its businesses.The penalty on Ant, however, is unlikely to be finalised till China appoints a number of top officials at the State Council and other government bodies next year, said four of the sources.While China's ruling Communist Party wrapped up its twice-a-decade congress and central leadership reshuffle last month, top posts at the cabinet and government bodies are still subject to changes, which typically take place at the annual meeting of parliament in early March.The central bank's chief, Yi Gang, 64, is likely to step down as he nears the official retirement age of 65 for minister-level officials.China's State Council Information Office, which handles media queries for the cabinet, did not respond to a request for comment.Just before Ant's IPO dust-up, the central bank officially issued rules to regulate the country's vast and often complex financial holdings companies, as part of its efforts to rein in systemic financial risks.It has so far approved the establishment of three such firms including China CITIC Financial Holdings.The central bank's local branch in the eastern city of Hangzhou, home to Ant's headquarters, received the firm's application to set up a financial holding company in June, two of the six sources and a separate person said.The PBOC, however, is unlikely to formally disclose the application till Ant wraps up its revamp, added the sources.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582020830270271","authorId":"3582020830270271","name":"tkj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4db3635974ce189ed8129eca6b5b618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582020830270271","authorIdStr":"3582020830270271"},"content":"long or wrong baba","text":"long or wrong baba","html":"long or wrong baba"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965228622,"gmtCreate":1669964606567,"gmtModify":1676538279524,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","listText":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","text":"Clue is in the name. A crystal ball. Not everyone gets it. Those who do, reaps the reward.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965228622","repostId":"2288960327","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962943929,"gmtCreate":1669707091262,"gmtModify":1676538226401,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","listText":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","text":"1st public company to 10 Trillion. Factoring in inflation of course. Look beyond the temporary insanity.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962943929","repostId":"2287511245","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2287511245","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669690737,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287511245?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 5 Years?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287511245","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's shares have performed poorly in the past month or so, as its lower-than-expected Q3 2","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s shares have performed poorly in the past month or so, as its lower-than-expected Q3 2022 automotive gross margin disappointed the market.</li><li>TSLA&#39;s near-term outlook remains mixed, as I expect an improvement in Tesla&#39;s automotive gross margin in subsequent quarters to be offset by weaker-than-expected deliveries.</li><li>In the next 5 years, Tesla will continue to be a fast grower in terms of the expected CAGRs for its top line, net profit, and free cash flow.</li><li>I raise my rating for TSLA from a Hold to a Buy, as its valuations have gotten more attractive and have yet to factor in the company&#39;s positive 5-year outlook in my opinion.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c520175a47f7c851f6eda11fb071b3e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu</span></p><h2>Elevator Pitch</h2><p>I have a Buy investment rating for Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares.</p><p>I previously discussed TSLA&#39;s stock split and target price changes with my prior September 7, 2022 update for the company. In that article, I determined that &#34;the implied upside (+13%) for TSLA&#39;s shares as per the consensus price target isn&#39;t very attractive&#34; at that point in time. However, Tesla&#39;s shares have dropped by a substantial 33% following the publication of my earlier write-up, and this has prompted me to provide an update of my thoughts on Tesla with this latest article.</p><p>Specifically, I focus on Tesla&#39;s near-term stock price underperformance, its five-year or medium term growth prospects, and the stock&#39;s valuation in the current write-up.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s shares have underperformed in the past month or so. However, if one looks beyond the near-term headwinds, Tesla is expected to stay as a fast growing company in the coming five years based on the future CAGRs for its key financial metrics. Also, Tesla&#39;s valuations have returned to reasonably appealing levels considering its forward P/E multiple of 33.8 times now. After comparing TSLA&#39;s five-year outlook with its current valuations, I choose to upgrade my investment rating on TSLA from a Hold previously to a Buy now.</p><h2>TSLA Stock Key Metrics</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s recent share price performance has been poor in both absolute and relative terms. Since the company reported its Q3 2022 financial results on October 19, 2022 after trading hours, TSLA&#39;s stock price has fallen by -17.7%.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s key headline metric, Q3 2022 earnings per share or EPS of $1.05 came in +5% above the sell-side analysts&#39; consensus forecast of $1.00. But the company&#39;s above-expectations third quarter bottom line was not the key metric that investors focused on, as seen with Tesla&#39;s stock price performance following its results announcement.</p><p>Instead, Tesla&#39;s automotive gross profit margin was the metric that really mattered for investors.</p><p>Adjusting for Zero Emission Vehicle or ZEV credits, the non-GAAP adjusted automotive gross profit margin for TSLA contracted by -200 basis points from 28.8% in Q3 2021 to 26.8% for Q3 2022. Tesla&#39;s actual third quarter non-GAAP adjusted gross margin also turned out to be -0.6 percentage points lower than the analysts&#39; consensus gross margin estimate of 27.4% based on data obtained from <i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>Looking at TSLA&#39;s stock price performance since the earning&#39;s announcement, it is very clear that the company&#39;s third quarter automotive gross margin was a major disappointment for investors.</p><h2>What Are Catalysts To Watch For?</h2><p>The two near-term catalysts that investors will be watching out for are stronger-than-expected vehicle demand as indicated by deliveries, and better-than-expected profitability at the gross margin level.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s stock has performed poorly in the last month or so. One major factor is TSLA&#39;s lower-than-expected automotive gross margin, which I highlighted in the preceding section. The other significant factor is the market&#39;s concerns about the company&#39;s ability to maintain a healthy pace of vehicle sales in a challenging economic environment. The company acknowledged at its most recent Q3 2022 earnings briefing.</p><p>In the next section, I analyze if it is likely that Tesla can realize both of the above-mentioned catalysts in the short term.</p><h2>What Is The Short-Term Prediction?</h2><p>My prediction is that Tesla&#39;s performance will be mixed in the short term, with a recovery in the company&#39;s automotive gross margin being negated by lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries.</p><p>On the negative side of things, TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries in the upcoming quarters might come in below expectations.</p><p>Tesla mentioned at its most recent quarterly investors call that the company&#39;s 2022 vehicle deliveries are expected to come in &#34;just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit&#34; as a result of &#34;limits on outbound logistics capacity which we didn’t anticipate.&#34;</p><p>Apart from issues relating to logistics, other factors such as weak consumer demand in view of poor economic growth, and consumers holding off new purchases in anticipation of potential tax credits for 2023.</p><p>On the positive side of things, I expect Tesla&#39;s automotive gross margin to improve in the fourth quarter of 2022 and beyond.</p><p>One key thing to note is that the Q3 2022 automotive gross margin for TSLA was hurt by &#34;Austin and Berlin ramp costs&#34; as per management&#39;s comments at the third quarter results briefing. It is noteworthy that Tesla guided that &#34;the impact&#34; of &#34;Austin and Berlin ramp costs&#34; going forward will be &#34;less than what we saw in Q3.&#34; Also, one should have seen the worst of inflationary cost pressures again, and it is reasonable to take the view that raw material expenses should trend lower in the future.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think it is important for investors considering a potential investment in Tesla to look beyond the near term. I write about Tesla&#39;s intermediate term or five-year outlook in the next section.</p><h2>Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 5 Years?</h2><p>In the next five years, Tesla is expected to continue delivering strong growth across all of its key financial metrics.</p><p>As per consensus data sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, analysts estimate that TSLA&#39;s top line will grow by a +30% CAGR from $53.8 billion in fiscal 2021 to $201.7 billion for FY 2026. Over the same period, Tesla&#39;s normalized net income and free cash flow are projected to increase by CAGRs of +29% and +45% to $26.8 billion and $32.5 billion, respectively according to the sell-side&#39;s forecasts. TSLA also stressed at its recent Q3 2022 earnings call that the company will continue to &#34;grow our vehicle production, sales deliveries by&#34; a CAGR of +50% or higher in the long run.</p><p>There are a number of factors supporting the positive five-year and mid-term financial outlook for TSLA.</p><p>Firstly, the penetration rate of electric vehicles might increase at a much faster pace than what the market is currently expecting.</p><p>A September 14, 2022 research report (not publicly available) titled &#34;Demand For EVs Outpacing Supply&#34; published by<i>Needham &amp; Company</i></p><p>In other words, analysts might be overly cautious in relation to their estimates of the expected penetration rate of EVs in the future, and there could be positive surprises ahead which will benefit the market leader, Tesla.</p><p>Secondly, Tesla&#39;s future top line expansion isn&#39;t just about executing on more one-off vehicle sales. It is worthy of note that revenue derived from TSLA&#39;s Services And Other segment surged by +84.0% YoY from $894 million in the third quarter of 2021 to $1,645 million in the most recent quarter.</p><p>Looking forward, supercharging revenue (key contributor for the Services And Other segment) is an area which holds significant growth potential. According to a <i>Goldman Sachs</i> (GS) research report (not publicly available) titled &#34;Opening The Supercharger Network&#34; issued on June 29, 2022, analysts from GS estimate that &#34;the incremental (supercharging) revenue opportunity could be $1-$3 bn in a few years&#34;, if TSLA does &#34;open up the (Supercharger) network to all EV drivers.&#34;</p><p>Thirdly, Tesla&#39;s future earnings per share or bottom line can grow as fast, if not even faster than its revenue, considering the positive effects of operating leverage and potential shareholder capital return.</p><p>In the third quarter of 2022, TSLA&#39;s operating costs increased by a mere +2.3% YoY as compared to a +55.9% jump in the company&#39;s revenue in YoY terms. This is a good illustration of how Tesla benefits from positive operating leverage.</p><p>Separately, Tesla&#39;s future EPS growth can be boosted by share repurchases. TSLA emphasized at its Q3 2022 results call that it can &#34;do a buyback on the order of $5 billion to $10 billion, even in the downside scenario next year.&#34;</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p>TSLA&#39;s shares are now rated as a Buy. Tesla&#39;s consensus forward next twelve months&#39; normalized P/E multiple has derated to 33.8 times now as per <i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>data, and this is just 9% above TSLA&#39;s three-year trough P/E ratio of 31.0 times. I think that Tesla&#39;s current P/E metric is reasonably attractive as compared to the company&#39;s five-year forward financial outlook, and this makes TSLA a Buy in my opinion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 5 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Tesla Stock Be In 5 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 10:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560869-tesla-stock-5-years><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's shares have performed poorly in the past month or so, as its lower-than-expected Q3 2022 automotive gross margin disappointed the market.TSLA's near-term outlook remains mixed, as I ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560869-tesla-stock-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560869-tesla-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287511245","content_text":"SummaryTesla's shares have performed poorly in the past month or so, as its lower-than-expected Q3 2022 automotive gross margin disappointed the market.TSLA's near-term outlook remains mixed, as I expect an improvement in Tesla's automotive gross margin in subsequent quarters to be offset by weaker-than-expected deliveries.In the next 5 years, Tesla will continue to be a fast grower in terms of the expected CAGRs for its top line, net profit, and free cash flow.I raise my rating for TSLA from a Hold to a Buy, as its valuations have gotten more attractive and have yet to factor in the company's positive 5-year outlook in my opinion.Xiaolu ChuElevator PitchI have a Buy investment rating for Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares.I previously discussed TSLA's stock split and target price changes with my prior September 7, 2022 update for the company. In that article, I determined that \"the implied upside (+13%) for TSLA's shares as per the consensus price target isn't very attractive\" at that point in time. However, Tesla's shares have dropped by a substantial 33% following the publication of my earlier write-up, and this has prompted me to provide an update of my thoughts on Tesla with this latest article.Specifically, I focus on Tesla's near-term stock price underperformance, its five-year or medium term growth prospects, and the stock's valuation in the current write-up.TSLA's shares have underperformed in the past month or so. However, if one looks beyond the near-term headwinds, Tesla is expected to stay as a fast growing company in the coming five years based on the future CAGRs for its key financial metrics. Also, Tesla's valuations have returned to reasonably appealing levels considering its forward P/E multiple of 33.8 times now. After comparing TSLA's five-year outlook with its current valuations, I choose to upgrade my investment rating on TSLA from a Hold previously to a Buy now.TSLA Stock Key MetricsTesla's recent share price performance has been poor in both absolute and relative terms. Since the company reported its Q3 2022 financial results on October 19, 2022 after trading hours, TSLA's stock price has fallen by -17.7%.TSLA's key headline metric, Q3 2022 earnings per share or EPS of $1.05 came in +5% above the sell-side analysts' consensus forecast of $1.00. But the company's above-expectations third quarter bottom line was not the key metric that investors focused on, as seen with Tesla's stock price performance following its results announcement.Instead, Tesla's automotive gross profit margin was the metric that really mattered for investors.Adjusting for Zero Emission Vehicle or ZEV credits, the non-GAAP adjusted automotive gross profit margin for TSLA contracted by -200 basis points from 28.8% in Q3 2021 to 26.8% for Q3 2022. Tesla's actual third quarter non-GAAP adjusted gross margin also turned out to be -0.6 percentage points lower than the analysts' consensus gross margin estimate of 27.4% based on data obtained from S&P Capital IQ.Looking at TSLA's stock price performance since the earning's announcement, it is very clear that the company's third quarter automotive gross margin was a major disappointment for investors.What Are Catalysts To Watch For?The two near-term catalysts that investors will be watching out for are stronger-than-expected vehicle demand as indicated by deliveries, and better-than-expected profitability at the gross margin level.Tesla's stock has performed poorly in the last month or so. One major factor is TSLA's lower-than-expected automotive gross margin, which I highlighted in the preceding section. The other significant factor is the market's concerns about the company's ability to maintain a healthy pace of vehicle sales in a challenging economic environment. The company acknowledged at its most recent Q3 2022 earnings briefing.In the next section, I analyze if it is likely that Tesla can realize both of the above-mentioned catalysts in the short term.What Is The Short-Term Prediction?My prediction is that Tesla's performance will be mixed in the short term, with a recovery in the company's automotive gross margin being negated by lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries.On the negative side of things, TSLA's vehicle deliveries in the upcoming quarters might come in below expectations.Tesla mentioned at its most recent quarterly investors call that the company's 2022 vehicle deliveries are expected to come in \"just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit\" as a result of \"limits on outbound logistics capacity which we didn’t anticipate.\"Apart from issues relating to logistics, other factors such as weak consumer demand in view of poor economic growth, and consumers holding off new purchases in anticipation of potential tax credits for 2023.On the positive side of things, I expect Tesla's automotive gross margin to improve in the fourth quarter of 2022 and beyond.One key thing to note is that the Q3 2022 automotive gross margin for TSLA was hurt by \"Austin and Berlin ramp costs\" as per management's comments at the third quarter results briefing. It is noteworthy that Tesla guided that \"the impact\" of \"Austin and Berlin ramp costs\" going forward will be \"less than what we saw in Q3.\" Also, one should have seen the worst of inflationary cost pressures again, and it is reasonable to take the view that raw material expenses should trend lower in the future.Nevertheless, I think it is important for investors considering a potential investment in Tesla to look beyond the near term. I write about Tesla's intermediate term or five-year outlook in the next section.Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 5 Years?In the next five years, Tesla is expected to continue delivering strong growth across all of its key financial metrics.As per consensus data sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, analysts estimate that TSLA's top line will grow by a +30% CAGR from $53.8 billion in fiscal 2021 to $201.7 billion for FY 2026. Over the same period, Tesla's normalized net income and free cash flow are projected to increase by CAGRs of +29% and +45% to $26.8 billion and $32.5 billion, respectively according to the sell-side's forecasts. TSLA also stressed at its recent Q3 2022 earnings call that the company will continue to \"grow our vehicle production, sales deliveries by\" a CAGR of +50% or higher in the long run.There are a number of factors supporting the positive five-year and mid-term financial outlook for TSLA.Firstly, the penetration rate of electric vehicles might increase at a much faster pace than what the market is currently expecting.A September 14, 2022 research report (not publicly available) titled \"Demand For EVs Outpacing Supply\" published byNeedham & CompanyIn other words, analysts might be overly cautious in relation to their estimates of the expected penetration rate of EVs in the future, and there could be positive surprises ahead which will benefit the market leader, Tesla.Secondly, Tesla's future top line expansion isn't just about executing on more one-off vehicle sales. It is worthy of note that revenue derived from TSLA's Services And Other segment surged by +84.0% YoY from $894 million in the third quarter of 2021 to $1,645 million in the most recent quarter.Looking forward, supercharging revenue (key contributor for the Services And Other segment) is an area which holds significant growth potential. According to a Goldman Sachs (GS) research report (not publicly available) titled \"Opening The Supercharger Network\" issued on June 29, 2022, analysts from GS estimate that \"the incremental (supercharging) revenue opportunity could be $1-$3 bn in a few years\", if TSLA does \"open up the (Supercharger) network to all EV drivers.\"Thirdly, Tesla's future earnings per share or bottom line can grow as fast, if not even faster than its revenue, considering the positive effects of operating leverage and potential shareholder capital return.In the third quarter of 2022, TSLA's operating costs increased by a mere +2.3% YoY as compared to a +55.9% jump in the company's revenue in YoY terms. This is a good illustration of how Tesla benefits from positive operating leverage.Separately, Tesla's future EPS growth can be boosted by share repurchases. TSLA emphasized at its Q3 2022 results call that it can \"do a buyback on the order of $5 billion to $10 billion, even in the downside scenario next year.\"Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's shares are now rated as a Buy. Tesla's consensus forward next twelve months' normalized P/E multiple has derated to 33.8 times now as per S&P Capital IQdata, and this is just 9% above TSLA's three-year trough P/E ratio of 31.0 times. I think that Tesla's current P/E metric is reasonably attractive as compared to the company's five-year forward financial outlook, and this makes TSLA a Buy in my opinion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968876036,"gmtCreate":1669192612825,"gmtModify":1676538165224,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","listText":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","text":"Invest in companies that produces products which you would buy. Invest in companies whose management is trustworthy, has foresight and dreams big. Nvidia is one of such company. Short term pain, long term gain.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968876036","repostId":"2285863595","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285863595","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669189848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285863595?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Here We Go Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285863595","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clea","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.</li><li>It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues.</li><li>I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebaf34d41fe0c4b791ed404fd8f152\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p>Today, I will be providing an update on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) after their recent Q3 earnings report. Therein, I will discuss how the company has been in this position before, delve into their recent earnings, analyze the potential direction of the company and its various business segments going forwards, and more.</p><p><i>Note: All dollar values mentioned herein are in millions of USD.</i></p><p><b>Let’s get started</b></p><blockquote>“Mechanical things can go in a straight line. Time moves ahead continuously. So can a machine when it’s adequately powered. But processes in fields like history and economics involve people, and when people are involved, the results are variable and cyclical.” - Howard Marks</blockquote><p>There is something inherently beautiful about cyclicality. Booms and busts, highs and lows, euphoria and despair; these feelings are directly connected with the human condition, and creep their way into the institutions and complex systems that make up the very fabric of the world we inhabit today. These phenomena directly impact society and economies at large, and have repeated countless amounts of time throughout history. There is no doubt that as we exit an environment impacted by pandemic-fueled market euphoria, and as the “easy-money era” of QE comes to an end, we are entering into hard times, an inevitability given the cyclical nature of markets. With inflationary pressures rearing their ugly head, shortages turning into gluts, and the deterioration of stability creeping its way into a variety of our systems, many companies that were putting up record numbers a few months prior to now are now struggling to deal with a plethora of headwinds.</p><p><b>NVDA is one of those companies - but this is a place that they’ve been before…</b></p><p>In April of 1993 three young electrical engineers, Chris Malachowsky, Curtis Priem, and the now-CEO, Jen-Hsun Huang, decided to start a company that would create specialized chips in a San Jose Denny’s. With the benefit of hindsight, it is amazing that a company that now stands at the forefront of computing had such humble beginnings. Being that as it may, the journey to that point was not without its ups and downs.</p><p>Take the launch of their first chip as an example. In 1995, the company went to market with their NV1 product, an effort that proved to be disastrous, resulting in a $10M loss and a layoff of half their then 80 person team, actions deemed essential to avoid imminent bankruptcy. Scattered throughout the remainder of NVDA’s history are situations where the company seemed to be quickly approaching destruction. As outlined in my original NVDA deep-dive, the rocky roads experienced of late aren’t even the worst drawdowns that NVDA shareholders have experienced:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc8e0145862d5dec1462b3dbb2e6f64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times. The company started off focused on PC graphics, pivoted to a centricity around programmable shaders, and now finds itself benefitting from a boom in parallel processing computing, bolstering several specialities ranging from visual computing, energy efficient programming, the go-to hardware choice at the forefront of the rapidly expanding data center and the AI applications therein, and more. Despite the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, NVDA finds itself, yet again, at a cross-road. With no end in sight to the downturn we find ourself in, it begs the question - will NVDA come out from this reinvented or will the weights on their shoulders continue to increase for the foreseeable future?</p><h2>Let’s dig into their most recent earnings to find out</h2><p>Starting off with revenues, overall top-line beat by 2.2%, coming in at approximately $5.931B vs. the consensus estimates of $5.805B, a decent surprise given the doom &amp; gloom that has been surrounding the company of late but still a noticeable decline YoY, decelerating 16.5%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5defc38c0bd23b32f11a39260ebf21\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Despite this clear deceleration, how exactly have each of the business segments of NVDA been performing? NVDA exists as a full-stack company (i.e., with both software and hardware expertise), and as described in-depth in my NVDA deep-dive, primarily operates in four different business segments: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive.</p><p>Data Center is primarily focused on providing hardware and software solutions for a variety of use cases ranging from AI to HPC, geared at hyperscalers, enterprise clients, research institutions, etc., as the end-users. Gaming is relatively self-explanatory and includes the company offering their graphical processing units for gaming PCs and laptops, in addition to a few other smaller bets such as the cloud gaming offering and multimedia devices, which understandably take a back-seat to the aforementioned gaming hardware, and are not something I expect to be hugely rewarding to shareholders going forward. Professional visualization encompasses a host of functionality but can be loosely defined as solutions aimed at 3D rendering, which work in conjunction with the company’s GPU architectures and associated computing languages, including the likes of Iray, Mental Ray, MDL, DesignWorks, etc. These products allow customers to create custom rendering applications, are tied to the company’s omniverse activities, etc. Automotive encompasses a series of hardware, software and infrastructure offerings such as the DRIVE supercomputing platform, software that leverages bundles of data gathered with hardware to assist with companies creating autonomous driving capabilities, as well as offerings tiered to data center and launchpad that allow customers to create AI and accelerated computing procedures related to autonomous vehicles.</p><p>Starting off with Data Center, this segment generated record numbers, increasing 31% YoY to come in at approximately $3.8B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd118aa68643730db5871ae1b66c2f1\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The data center segment, as outlined on the conference call, benefitted from heightened demand from US cloud providers and consumer internet companies. In addition, management also illustrated how they stand to benefit from increased instances of, and a desire for, accelerative computing, deep-recommender systems and large language models, as well as generative AI going forwards. The company is obviously at the forefront of some exciting developments, but heading into a recessionary environment we will have to monitor if spend in these area deteriorates as customers tighten the belt of spend associated with innovative computing efforts.</p><p>Notably, per management, the company has supposedly been able to navigate recent crises relatively well. As has been the hot topic of debate lately, NVDA was directly impacted by various parameters of the recent chip ban, of which ensures that integrated circuits with certain technical parameters were not able to be shipped to China. Put simply, the highest performing pieces of integrated circuitry were essentially prevented from making their way into the country, a direct attack on the country’s abilities to garner top-tier AI capabilities. As such, this dampened the company’s ability to export A100 and H100 products to China.</p><p>In response, NVDA came out with the A800 product as an alternative, a piece of hardware that abides to the US government export regulations and is unable to be programmed to exceed them. As a result, management outlined that these changes were able to largely offset the weakness associated with the restrictions, citing the fact that weakness in China overall, a phenomenon that was alluded to pre-restrictions, was the more noticeable deterrent of performance. Although the accuracy of these statements is up in the air, it will be interesting to see if A800s are able to be sufficient enough to be a full-on alternative, or if this will result in Chinese companies creating their own hardware and CUDA-like-alternative that ends up displacing the moat that NVDA currently finds themselves benefitting from. Only time will tell.</p><p>Moving on, it was no surprise that gaming came in weak, dwindling 51% YoY to come in at $1.574B in revenue for the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54cf549e710d9e80962fef76b2b09cc3\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NVDA mentioned the fact that they expect normalization and slight sequential growth going forwards, a phenomenon that may illustrate they’ve hit a bottom in this segment, but a phenomenon I find unlikely given the high-end ASP associated with their new graphics cards heading into a macroeconomic environment with deteriorating conditions. The pandemic was arguably the largest change we’ve seen to consumer behaviour seen in a very long time, and the pull-forward in associated spending that occurred as a result of lax monetary conditions and ludicrous fiscal stimulus was noticeable. Even despite their new hardware launches, the company is still facing the headwinds associated with inventory challenges, a phenomenon reflected by the lower sell-in they had with partners to help them align channel inventory this quarter, and a myriad of issues such as with crypto-market changes that contributed to an increase in secondhand market supply, as an example. I believe it will be a few quarters at the very least before gaming shows any signs of putting these issues in the rearview.</p><p>Automotive, though a lower proportion of total revenue, increased 86% YoY, a result of DRIVE orin-based production ramps scaling. NVDA outlined that this segment is likely to experience a sequential increase going forward, and they anticipate this to evolve into their next multi-billion dollar platform. Again given the macro environment it will be interesting to see how that counteracts a cutback in spending that may occur in the next few quarters; although there is no doubt that auto companies are focusing on these endeavours:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98da920b4f704d48e8dbf46e1428b319\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Lastly, professional visualization tanked, decreasing approximately 65% on a YoY basis and coming in at approximately $200M for the quarter. Again management cited these results are attributable to a continuation of the need to work through channel inventory issues, a phenomenon that they don’t anticipate to normalize heading into Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7115809c8b8446e56316db6052e37f0b\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2>When all of the segments are brought together, here’s how things look</h2><p>It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues. Bringing these segments together, it is evident that the company is now severely reliant on the performance of the data center, a phenomenon that is both exciting given the dominant market share they hold in this segment and the high ceiling of growth potential, but also a source of potential fragility given the potential contraction in data center expenditures that may be looming over the horizon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b2a91b8bc45c189d2c28c591028ff7\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4793e0657604480db9da5e2b56c4dd84\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>All segments, spare Automotive are already in or are moving towards deceleration, and when viewed alongside the company’s guidance, this is even more concerning. Revenues are expected to come in at approximately $6B for Q4, with every segment spare professional visualization expected to increase sequentially. Given the small delta that exists between projected Q4 estimates and Q3 numbers ($6B vs. approximately $5.9B) this essentially means that the three segments experiencing QoQ increases will likely increase negligibly. With the company’s still-premium multiple and their behaviour conveying they may be experiencing negligible growth heading into 2023, this may point towards inevitable further compression of their market value going forwards.</p><p>The company’s GAAP margins do not paint any better of a picture. Gross Margins declined YoY from 65% to 54%, feeling the brunt of a $700M charge associated with lower data center demand in China, offset by a warranty benefit of approximately $70M. Operating expenses soared as a % of total revenue, coming in at approximately 43% of top-line compared to approximately 28% last year, primarily attributable to increased compensation and data infrastructure costs. Resultantly, operating margins declined, coming in at 10% for the quarter compared to 38% last year. Although the company’s revenue guide and gross margin guide (63% anticipated) are not horrible, they anticipate operating expenses to remain flat at approximately $2.56B. Performing basic calculations we arrive at the fact that operating margins for Q4 are likely to be approximately 20%, an improvement QoQ but still not indicative of NVDA being out of the woods just yet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f93417f6a16c247d05903b740a1bbc\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4168fb61ef492d69d08d3e9c0217743b\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dwindling margins, combined with a relatively consistent capex profile that matches previous years, resulted in the company’s free cash flow coming in at approximately $(156)M for the quarter, and this is even taking into consideration approximately $745M in SBC included in CFO, highlighting that the company has been creeping into cash burning mode, a phenomenon that will need to be monitored:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e461c6aa50611cf88338208979b04f34\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at the company’s 9M values and taking into consideration the guidance, we are likely to see the lowest FY FCF margin values in quite some time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed0abd3cd8d3c9da42ded213f6e1bba\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In short, for the time being FCF is declining in a manner that is non-accretive to shareholders. Lastly, it is worth discussing the company’s inventories, of which have bloated up over the course of the last year, increasing to approximately $4.45B for the quarter, 75% of revenue compared to 31% of revenue for the same time last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64d222246c8d7ae8ab72e1fe4bda3ac\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the conference call, NVDA’s CFO indicated that their inventory on hand was largely due to the upcoming architectures the company has coming to market including ADA, hopper, and other hardware related to their networking business. Although the company says they are always to looking at their inventory levels at the end of each quarter in an anticipatory nature, it is slightly hard to believe that the company’s inventory solely swelled as a result of these actions. In August, and many months prior, it was noted that NVDA was struggling with excess inventory associated with their RTX-3000 series ahead of the RTX-4000 launch. Given the nature of secondary markets at the moment, I find it is unlikely the company was able to normalize the RTX-3000 inventory bloating that quickly, given the state of the environment we are in right now. Inventory looks poor and only time will tell if they are able to normalize this swell heading into an increasingly difficult period.</p><p>In short, if I had to give a TLDR on the situation at NVDA at the moment it would be as follows:</p><ul><li><p>The company stands at the forefront of arguably some of the most promising subsections of the technology sector today. AI will likely be world-changing and through their data center business segment, NVDA is likely to reap the rewards given their 80%+ recent accelerator market share.</p></li><li><p>Gaming will likely recover as we enter into a more stable macroeconomic environment. This popular entertainment source is going nowhere and is likely to grow above GDP for sometime. NVDA will need to focus on not wilting on ever-growing competitive pressures and weather the aforementioned headwinds before reaping any reward.</p></li><li><p>Automotive is promising and is what the company believes to be their next multi-billion dollar platform. Although it is sustaining commendable growth thus far, only time will tell if customer spend will increase linearly, or if expenditures are reeled back in during economic turmoil due to the far-fetched nature of these engineering developments overall.</p></li><li><p>Similar to gaming, professional visualization will likely normalize heading into a more rosy economic situation, however, short-term inventory headwinds will continue to impact the segment heading into next quarter and likely for some time afterwards.</p></li><li><p>NVDA growth is concerning and with their new guidance it looks like even their best performing business segments are heading to a standstill. We’re at an interesting point in markets at the moment. Despite extreme financial tightness, the economy as a whole hasn’t deteriorated into disastrous areas. As the Fed likely continues to put their foot on the gas, a recession heading into next year is likely in my opinion. Given that, as well as the fact that S&amp;P 500 earnings are still too rosy and have yet to be downgraded to levels seen in previous recessions, I believe there may be further pain in equity markets. General market-based and economic weakness, combined with the fact that NVDA still has a relatively premium multiple and is unlikely to be able to sustain the levels of growth that they’ve been able to in the past, likely warrants further compression in the equity. With margins yet to recover to stable levels, continued relatively egregious SBC, and an unfavourable inventory situation, the amount of FCF made available to shareholders is likely to remain bleak for the next few quarters.</p></li></ul><p>In short, and as I alluded to in my original deep-dive, I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies. Given the spaces they operate at the forefront of, if they’re able to come out of this environment stronger, they’re likely to reap substantial rewards. Until then, I believe further short-term pain may be inevitable. We saw multiple compression when the company went through hardship at the end of the last decade, and I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a similar or worse situation heading into a prolonged bear market, or one where a V-shaped recovery isn’t as probable. Time will tell if my hunches are right here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892bb319ef3cc312a20559d54393c858\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><i>This article is written by MT Capital Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Here We Go Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Here We Go Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 15:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285863595","content_text":"SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues.I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies.Justin SullivanToday, I will be providing an update on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) after their recent Q3 earnings report. Therein, I will discuss how the company has been in this position before, delve into their recent earnings, analyze the potential direction of the company and its various business segments going forwards, and more.Note: All dollar values mentioned herein are in millions of USD.Let’s get started“Mechanical things can go in a straight line. Time moves ahead continuously. So can a machine when it’s adequately powered. But processes in fields like history and economics involve people, and when people are involved, the results are variable and cyclical.” - Howard MarksThere is something inherently beautiful about cyclicality. Booms and busts, highs and lows, euphoria and despair; these feelings are directly connected with the human condition, and creep their way into the institutions and complex systems that make up the very fabric of the world we inhabit today. These phenomena directly impact society and economies at large, and have repeated countless amounts of time throughout history. There is no doubt that as we exit an environment impacted by pandemic-fueled market euphoria, and as the “easy-money era” of QE comes to an end, we are entering into hard times, an inevitability given the cyclical nature of markets. With inflationary pressures rearing their ugly head, shortages turning into gluts, and the deterioration of stability creeping its way into a variety of our systems, many companies that were putting up record numbers a few months prior to now are now struggling to deal with a plethora of headwinds.NVDA is one of those companies - but this is a place that they’ve been before…In April of 1993 three young electrical engineers, Chris Malachowsky, Curtis Priem, and the now-CEO, Jen-Hsun Huang, decided to start a company that would create specialized chips in a San Jose Denny’s. With the benefit of hindsight, it is amazing that a company that now stands at the forefront of computing had such humble beginnings. Being that as it may, the journey to that point was not without its ups and downs.Take the launch of their first chip as an example. In 1995, the company went to market with their NV1 product, an effort that proved to be disastrous, resulting in a $10M loss and a layoff of half their then 80 person team, actions deemed essential to avoid imminent bankruptcy. Scattered throughout the remainder of NVDA’s history are situations where the company seemed to be quickly approaching destruction. As outlined in my original NVDA deep-dive, the rocky roads experienced of late aren’t even the worst drawdowns that NVDA shareholders have experienced:Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times. The company started off focused on PC graphics, pivoted to a centricity around programmable shaders, and now finds itself benefitting from a boom in parallel processing computing, bolstering several specialities ranging from visual computing, energy efficient programming, the go-to hardware choice at the forefront of the rapidly expanding data center and the AI applications therein, and more. Despite the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, NVDA finds itself, yet again, at a cross-road. With no end in sight to the downturn we find ourself in, it begs the question - will NVDA come out from this reinvented or will the weights on their shoulders continue to increase for the foreseeable future?Let’s dig into their most recent earnings to find outStarting off with revenues, overall top-line beat by 2.2%, coming in at approximately $5.931B vs. the consensus estimates of $5.805B, a decent surprise given the doom & gloom that has been surrounding the company of late but still a noticeable decline YoY, decelerating 16.5%:Despite this clear deceleration, how exactly have each of the business segments of NVDA been performing? NVDA exists as a full-stack company (i.e., with both software and hardware expertise), and as described in-depth in my NVDA deep-dive, primarily operates in four different business segments: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive.Data Center is primarily focused on providing hardware and software solutions for a variety of use cases ranging from AI to HPC, geared at hyperscalers, enterprise clients, research institutions, etc., as the end-users. Gaming is relatively self-explanatory and includes the company offering their graphical processing units for gaming PCs and laptops, in addition to a few other smaller bets such as the cloud gaming offering and multimedia devices, which understandably take a back-seat to the aforementioned gaming hardware, and are not something I expect to be hugely rewarding to shareholders going forward. Professional visualization encompasses a host of functionality but can be loosely defined as solutions aimed at 3D rendering, which work in conjunction with the company’s GPU architectures and associated computing languages, including the likes of Iray, Mental Ray, MDL, DesignWorks, etc. These products allow customers to create custom rendering applications, are tied to the company’s omniverse activities, etc. Automotive encompasses a series of hardware, software and infrastructure offerings such as the DRIVE supercomputing platform, software that leverages bundles of data gathered with hardware to assist with companies creating autonomous driving capabilities, as well as offerings tiered to data center and launchpad that allow customers to create AI and accelerated computing procedures related to autonomous vehicles.Starting off with Data Center, this segment generated record numbers, increasing 31% YoY to come in at approximately $3.8B.The data center segment, as outlined on the conference call, benefitted from heightened demand from US cloud providers and consumer internet companies. In addition, management also illustrated how they stand to benefit from increased instances of, and a desire for, accelerative computing, deep-recommender systems and large language models, as well as generative AI going forwards. The company is obviously at the forefront of some exciting developments, but heading into a recessionary environment we will have to monitor if spend in these area deteriorates as customers tighten the belt of spend associated with innovative computing efforts.Notably, per management, the company has supposedly been able to navigate recent crises relatively well. As has been the hot topic of debate lately, NVDA was directly impacted by various parameters of the recent chip ban, of which ensures that integrated circuits with certain technical parameters were not able to be shipped to China. Put simply, the highest performing pieces of integrated circuitry were essentially prevented from making their way into the country, a direct attack on the country’s abilities to garner top-tier AI capabilities. As such, this dampened the company’s ability to export A100 and H100 products to China.In response, NVDA came out with the A800 product as an alternative, a piece of hardware that abides to the US government export regulations and is unable to be programmed to exceed them. As a result, management outlined that these changes were able to largely offset the weakness associated with the restrictions, citing the fact that weakness in China overall, a phenomenon that was alluded to pre-restrictions, was the more noticeable deterrent of performance. Although the accuracy of these statements is up in the air, it will be interesting to see if A800s are able to be sufficient enough to be a full-on alternative, or if this will result in Chinese companies creating their own hardware and CUDA-like-alternative that ends up displacing the moat that NVDA currently finds themselves benefitting from. Only time will tell.Moving on, it was no surprise that gaming came in weak, dwindling 51% YoY to come in at $1.574B in revenue for the quarter.NVDA mentioned the fact that they expect normalization and slight sequential growth going forwards, a phenomenon that may illustrate they’ve hit a bottom in this segment, but a phenomenon I find unlikely given the high-end ASP associated with their new graphics cards heading into a macroeconomic environment with deteriorating conditions. The pandemic was arguably the largest change we’ve seen to consumer behaviour seen in a very long time, and the pull-forward in associated spending that occurred as a result of lax monetary conditions and ludicrous fiscal stimulus was noticeable. Even despite their new hardware launches, the company is still facing the headwinds associated with inventory challenges, a phenomenon reflected by the lower sell-in they had with partners to help them align channel inventory this quarter, and a myriad of issues such as with crypto-market changes that contributed to an increase in secondhand market supply, as an example. I believe it will be a few quarters at the very least before gaming shows any signs of putting these issues in the rearview.Automotive, though a lower proportion of total revenue, increased 86% YoY, a result of DRIVE orin-based production ramps scaling. NVDA outlined that this segment is likely to experience a sequential increase going forward, and they anticipate this to evolve into their next multi-billion dollar platform. Again given the macro environment it will be interesting to see how that counteracts a cutback in spending that may occur in the next few quarters; although there is no doubt that auto companies are focusing on these endeavours:Lastly, professional visualization tanked, decreasing approximately 65% on a YoY basis and coming in at approximately $200M for the quarter. Again management cited these results are attributable to a continuation of the need to work through channel inventory issues, a phenomenon that they don’t anticipate to normalize heading into Q4.When all of the segments are brought together, here’s how things lookIt is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues. Bringing these segments together, it is evident that the company is now severely reliant on the performance of the data center, a phenomenon that is both exciting given the dominant market share they hold in this segment and the high ceiling of growth potential, but also a source of potential fragility given the potential contraction in data center expenditures that may be looming over the horizon.All segments, spare Automotive are already in or are moving towards deceleration, and when viewed alongside the company’s guidance, this is even more concerning. Revenues are expected to come in at approximately $6B for Q4, with every segment spare professional visualization expected to increase sequentially. Given the small delta that exists between projected Q4 estimates and Q3 numbers ($6B vs. approximately $5.9B) this essentially means that the three segments experiencing QoQ increases will likely increase negligibly. With the company’s still-premium multiple and their behaviour conveying they may be experiencing negligible growth heading into 2023, this may point towards inevitable further compression of their market value going forwards.The company’s GAAP margins do not paint any better of a picture. Gross Margins declined YoY from 65% to 54%, feeling the brunt of a $700M charge associated with lower data center demand in China, offset by a warranty benefit of approximately $70M. Operating expenses soared as a % of total revenue, coming in at approximately 43% of top-line compared to approximately 28% last year, primarily attributable to increased compensation and data infrastructure costs. Resultantly, operating margins declined, coming in at 10% for the quarter compared to 38% last year. Although the company’s revenue guide and gross margin guide (63% anticipated) are not horrible, they anticipate operating expenses to remain flat at approximately $2.56B. Performing basic calculations we arrive at the fact that operating margins for Q4 are likely to be approximately 20%, an improvement QoQ but still not indicative of NVDA being out of the woods just yet.Dwindling margins, combined with a relatively consistent capex profile that matches previous years, resulted in the company’s free cash flow coming in at approximately $(156)M for the quarter, and this is even taking into consideration approximately $745M in SBC included in CFO, highlighting that the company has been creeping into cash burning mode, a phenomenon that will need to be monitored:Looking at the company’s 9M values and taking into consideration the guidance, we are likely to see the lowest FY FCF margin values in quite some time.In short, for the time being FCF is declining in a manner that is non-accretive to shareholders. Lastly, it is worth discussing the company’s inventories, of which have bloated up over the course of the last year, increasing to approximately $4.45B for the quarter, 75% of revenue compared to 31% of revenue for the same time last year:On the conference call, NVDA’s CFO indicated that their inventory on hand was largely due to the upcoming architectures the company has coming to market including ADA, hopper, and other hardware related to their networking business. Although the company says they are always to looking at their inventory levels at the end of each quarter in an anticipatory nature, it is slightly hard to believe that the company’s inventory solely swelled as a result of these actions. In August, and many months prior, it was noted that NVDA was struggling with excess inventory associated with their RTX-3000 series ahead of the RTX-4000 launch. Given the nature of secondary markets at the moment, I find it is unlikely the company was able to normalize the RTX-3000 inventory bloating that quickly, given the state of the environment we are in right now. Inventory looks poor and only time will tell if they are able to normalize this swell heading into an increasingly difficult period.In short, if I had to give a TLDR on the situation at NVDA at the moment it would be as follows:The company stands at the forefront of arguably some of the most promising subsections of the technology sector today. AI will likely be world-changing and through their data center business segment, NVDA is likely to reap the rewards given their 80%+ recent accelerator market share.Gaming will likely recover as we enter into a more stable macroeconomic environment. This popular entertainment source is going nowhere and is likely to grow above GDP for sometime. NVDA will need to focus on not wilting on ever-growing competitive pressures and weather the aforementioned headwinds before reaping any reward.Automotive is promising and is what the company believes to be their next multi-billion dollar platform. Although it is sustaining commendable growth thus far, only time will tell if customer spend will increase linearly, or if expenditures are reeled back in during economic turmoil due to the far-fetched nature of these engineering developments overall.Similar to gaming, professional visualization will likely normalize heading into a more rosy economic situation, however, short-term inventory headwinds will continue to impact the segment heading into next quarter and likely for some time afterwards.NVDA growth is concerning and with their new guidance it looks like even their best performing business segments are heading to a standstill. We’re at an interesting point in markets at the moment. Despite extreme financial tightness, the economy as a whole hasn’t deteriorated into disastrous areas. As the Fed likely continues to put their foot on the gas, a recession heading into next year is likely in my opinion. Given that, as well as the fact that S&P 500 earnings are still too rosy and have yet to be downgraded to levels seen in previous recessions, I believe there may be further pain in equity markets. General market-based and economic weakness, combined with the fact that NVDA still has a relatively premium multiple and is unlikely to be able to sustain the levels of growth that they’ve been able to in the past, likely warrants further compression in the equity. With margins yet to recover to stable levels, continued relatively egregious SBC, and an unfavourable inventory situation, the amount of FCF made available to shareholders is likely to remain bleak for the next few quarters.In short, and as I alluded to in my original deep-dive, I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies. Given the spaces they operate at the forefront of, if they’re able to come out of this environment stronger, they’re likely to reap substantial rewards. Until then, I believe further short-term pain may be inevitable. We saw multiple compression when the company went through hardship at the end of the last decade, and I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a similar or worse situation heading into a prolonged bear market, or one where a V-shaped recovery isn’t as probable. Time will tell if my hunches are right here.This article is written by MT Capital Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962941185,"gmtCreate":1669707754147,"gmtModify":1676538226542,"author":{"id":"3586166221963075","authorId":"3586166221963075","name":"impervious","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/565b498333404e62eca10a3ab96190ef","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586166221963075","authorIdStr":"3586166221963075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","listText":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","text":"If you want to be different, you have to think differently. The problem with BABA is that for as many people preaching BUY, there are almost as many screaming SELL. Who are you? 😄😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962941185","repostId":"1108840166","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108840166","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669699547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108840166?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Falling 76%, is Alibaba Stock a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108840166","media":"Tipranks","summary":"Shares of Alibaba have been obliterated over the past couple of years. Based on its financials, the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>Shares of Alibaba have been obliterated over the past couple of years. Based on its financials, the stock appears to be incredibly cheap. Nevertheless, Alibaba’s investment case is utterly speculative.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe13656ceca1cd6c63df3d6a8b82b37\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Alibaba (<b>NASDAQ: BABA</b>) stock has declined by 41% over the past year and about<b> 76% from its all-time high level back in 2020</b>. It’s not surprising that investors have sold off Alibaba with a passion. In a high-tension geopolitical environment, international stocks lose their appeal. Combine that with the lack of trust attached to Chinese equities due to corporate governance issues and the Chinese government’s crackdown on big tech, and the perfect storm for Alibaba quickly formed. However, with the stock still trading near lows, investors should revisit Alibaba’s investment case. At this point, the potential reward could overshadow the risks. Nonetheless, due to tons of speculation involved, I am neutral on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6d0fad152e06eb41b369a528d49c67\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2><b>Were Alibaba’s Q3 Results Actually That Bad?</b></h2><p>Alibaba’s bulls were hoping that the company’s Q3 results would end up being a positive catalyst for the stock. Alibaba is known for its ability to deliver rich bottom-line numbers. With the stock trading this low, it makes sense to expect another profitable quarter would be enough to revive interest in the company. So, seeing Alibaba post a net loss of $3.2 billion for the quarter evaporated all sense of hope, but were Alibaba’s Q3 results actually that bad?</p><p>At first glance, the $3.2 billion net loss definitely appears frightening. However, some context is needed to shed light on this number. Specifically, the sole reason the company posted a loss is due to the decrease in the market prices of Alibaba’s equity investments in publicly-traded companies. For instance, Alibaba owns a controlling stake in Alibaba Health Information Technology (<b>OTC: ALBHF</b>), whose shares have lost close to 1/4 of their value over the past year. In fact, interest and investment losses amounted to nearly $6.0 billion in Q3, which, again, are the sole contributor to Alibaba’s negative bottom line.</p><p>Operationally, however, the company remained robust while its free cash flow soared! Revenues came in at $29.1 billion, up 3% year-over-year, which is quite impressive given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that have affected global commerce as well as China’s zero-Covid policy. Further, Alibaba’s adjusted EBITDA jumped 68% to $3.5 billion, while its EBITDA margin actually improved by 400 basis points to 21%, which is a great result considering this is a highly-inflationary environment that we are experiencing. Finally, with Alibaba reducing its capital expenditures, free cash flow skyrocketed 61% to $5.0 billion, implying a free cash flow margin of 17.1%.</p><h2><b>How Cheap is Alibaba Really</b>?</h2><p>When valuing Alibaba, we need to make sure we don’t take the company’s non-cash losses (or gains) into account, as they can wildly sway its net income, as was the case in its Q3 results. With that in mind, based on Alibaba’s year-to-date performance and Q4 outlook, Wall Street expects the company to post adjusted earnings per share of $7.27 this year, which implies the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of around 10.8x.</p><p>One argument is that, obviously, this is a ridiculously low multiple, given the company is growing in a treacherous environment, and net income growth should even accelerate once the markets calm down. The fact that Alibaba has already repurchased approximately $18 billion of its shares under its share repurchase program, which was even boosted by an additional $15 billion recently, should further confirm this. Further, it’s worth mentioning that since Alibaba is trading at such low valuation levels, share repurchases will be massively accretive to earnings per share in the coming years.</p><p>On the flip side, you can argue that investors don’t even care about Alibaba’s valuation multiples. As long as scrutiny over Chinese equities persists and geopolitical risks remain, investors might as well just avoid Chinese equities like Alibaba altogether, regardless of how cheap they are. The risk of something going amiss regarding holding Chinese equities actually materializing may just not be worth taking on.</p><h2>Is BABA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?</h2><p>Turning to Wall Street, Alibaba has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on the 15 unanimous Buys assigned in the past three months. At $133.73, the average Alibaba price target implies 76.2% upside potential.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0580e1212eb89a404ace512bb8cfcf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2><b>The Takeaway: A Buy for Speculative Investors Only</b></h2><p>It seems that nobody would oppose the idea that, from a plainly financial point of view, Alibaba shares are trading at a massive discount – so much so that the stock could double from here, and you’d still have a hard time arguing that it’s expensive. In that sense, assuming the stock’s valuation normalizes at some point, investors could enjoy exceptional returns from a P/E expansion alone.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Falling 76%, is Alibaba Stock a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Falling 76%, is Alibaba Stock a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 13:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/after-falling-76-is-alibaba-stock-nysebaba-a-buy><strong>Tipranks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of Alibaba have been obliterated over the past couple of years. Based on its financials, the stock appears to be incredibly cheap. Nevertheless, Alibaba’s investment case is utterly speculative...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/after-falling-76-is-alibaba-stock-nysebaba-a-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/after-falling-76-is-alibaba-stock-nysebaba-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108840166","content_text":"Shares of Alibaba have been obliterated over the past couple of years. Based on its financials, the stock appears to be incredibly cheap. Nevertheless, Alibaba’s investment case is utterly speculative.Alibaba (NASDAQ: BABA) stock has declined by 41% over the past year and about 76% from its all-time high level back in 2020. It’s not surprising that investors have sold off Alibaba with a passion. In a high-tension geopolitical environment, international stocks lose their appeal. Combine that with the lack of trust attached to Chinese equities due to corporate governance issues and the Chinese government’s crackdown on big tech, and the perfect storm for Alibaba quickly formed. However, with the stock still trading near lows, investors should revisit Alibaba’s investment case. At this point, the potential reward could overshadow the risks. Nonetheless, due to tons of speculation involved, I am neutral on the stock.Were Alibaba’s Q3 Results Actually That Bad?Alibaba’s bulls were hoping that the company’s Q3 results would end up being a positive catalyst for the stock. Alibaba is known for its ability to deliver rich bottom-line numbers. With the stock trading this low, it makes sense to expect another profitable quarter would be enough to revive interest in the company. So, seeing Alibaba post a net loss of $3.2 billion for the quarter evaporated all sense of hope, but were Alibaba’s Q3 results actually that bad?At first glance, the $3.2 billion net loss definitely appears frightening. However, some context is needed to shed light on this number. Specifically, the sole reason the company posted a loss is due to the decrease in the market prices of Alibaba’s equity investments in publicly-traded companies. For instance, Alibaba owns a controlling stake in Alibaba Health Information Technology (OTC: ALBHF), whose shares have lost close to 1/4 of their value over the past year. In fact, interest and investment losses amounted to nearly $6.0 billion in Q3, which, again, are the sole contributor to Alibaba’s negative bottom line.Operationally, however, the company remained robust while its free cash flow soared! Revenues came in at $29.1 billion, up 3% year-over-year, which is quite impressive given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that have affected global commerce as well as China’s zero-Covid policy. Further, Alibaba’s adjusted EBITDA jumped 68% to $3.5 billion, while its EBITDA margin actually improved by 400 basis points to 21%, which is a great result considering this is a highly-inflationary environment that we are experiencing. Finally, with Alibaba reducing its capital expenditures, free cash flow skyrocketed 61% to $5.0 billion, implying a free cash flow margin of 17.1%.How Cheap is Alibaba Really?When valuing Alibaba, we need to make sure we don’t take the company’s non-cash losses (or gains) into account, as they can wildly sway its net income, as was the case in its Q3 results. With that in mind, based on Alibaba’s year-to-date performance and Q4 outlook, Wall Street expects the company to post adjusted earnings per share of $7.27 this year, which implies the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of around 10.8x.One argument is that, obviously, this is a ridiculously low multiple, given the company is growing in a treacherous environment, and net income growth should even accelerate once the markets calm down. The fact that Alibaba has already repurchased approximately $18 billion of its shares under its share repurchase program, which was even boosted by an additional $15 billion recently, should further confirm this. Further, it’s worth mentioning that since Alibaba is trading at such low valuation levels, share repurchases will be massively accretive to earnings per share in the coming years.On the flip side, you can argue that investors don’t even care about Alibaba’s valuation multiples. As long as scrutiny over Chinese equities persists and geopolitical risks remain, investors might as well just avoid Chinese equities like Alibaba altogether, regardless of how cheap they are. The risk of something going amiss regarding holding Chinese equities actually materializing may just not be worth taking on.Is BABA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?Turning to Wall Street, Alibaba has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on the 15 unanimous Buys assigned in the past three months. At $133.73, the average Alibaba price target implies 76.2% upside potential.The Takeaway: A Buy for Speculative Investors OnlyIt seems that nobody would oppose the idea that, from a plainly financial point of view, Alibaba shares are trading at a massive discount – so much so that the stock could double from here, and you’d still have a hard time arguing that it’s expensive. In that sense, assuming the stock’s valuation normalizes at some point, investors could enjoy exceptional returns from a P/E expansion alone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}