Constellatio personal page - To The Moon

Constellatio

Constellatio

Value investor

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2021-06-21

Hi

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2021-06-19

Wow

Dow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October

2021-06-19

Techinical rush

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2021-06-18

Ipo heat?

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2021-06-18

Speculation will never ends

1 Stock to Avoid No Matter What

2021-06-18

Manipulative interest rates

Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P

2021-06-18

Don’t forget AMD

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2021-06-18

Online giant

Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years

2021-06-18

Nice

NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap

2021-06-18

Technology trend

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2021-06-18

Valuation vs conservative calculation

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 08:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected.\nThe blue-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1156696708","content_text":"Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 533.37 points, or 1.6%, to 33,290.08. TheS&P 500slid 1.3% to 4,166.45. Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit their session lows in the final minutes of trading and closed around those levels. TheNasdaq Compositeclosed 0.9% lower at 14,030.38. Economic comeback plays led the market losses.\nFor the week, the 30-stock Dow lost 3.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down by 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, week to date.\nSt. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullardtold CNBC's \"Squawk Box\"on Friday it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022. His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year, putting pressure on stock prices.\n\"The fear held by some investors is that if the Fed tightens policy sooner than expected to help cool inflationary pressures, this could weigh on future economic growth,\" Truist Advisory Services chief market strategist Keith Lerner said in a note. To be sure, he added it would be premature to give up on the so-called value trade right now.\nPockets of the market most sensitive to the economic rebound led the sell-off this week. The S&P 500 energy sector and industrials dropped 5.2% and 3.8%, respectively, for the week. Financials and materials meanwhile, lost more than 6% each. These groups had been market leaders this year on the back of the economic reopening.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve. This means the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys — like the 2-year note — rose while longer-duration yields like the benchmark 10-year declined. The retreat in long-dated bond yields reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon hurt bank stocks particularly as their earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase shares on Friday lost more than 2% each. Citigroup fell by 1.8%, posting its 12th straight daily decline.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"This week's first whiff of an eventual change in Fed policy was a reminder that emergency monetary conditions and the free-money era will ultimately end,\" strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. \"We expect a series of incremental retreats from the Fed's benign inflation outlook in the coming months.\"\nCommodity prices were underpressure this weekas China attempted to cool rising prices and as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Copper, gold and platinum fell once again on Friday.\nFriday also coincided with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" in which options and futures on indexes and equities expire. This event may have contributed to more volatile trading during the session.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162443131,"gmtCreate":1624072979623,"gmtModify":1703828248577,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Techinical rush","listText":"Techinical rush","text":"Techinical rush","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162443131","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166864788,"gmtCreate":1624002766444,"gmtModify":1703826253106,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ipo heat?&nbsp;","listText":"Ipo heat?&nbsp;","text":"Ipo heat?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166864788","repostId":"1183583910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166865558,"gmtCreate":1624002711774,"gmtModify":1703826250832,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speculation will never ends","listText":"Speculation will never ends","text":"Speculation will never ends","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166865558","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143979397","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623921600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143979397?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Stock to Avoid No Matter What","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143979397","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This company faces an uphill climb to turning things around.","content":"<p><b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME) has certainly had a wild ride this year. If you owned the stock coming into 2021, it was a lot of fun watching the per-share price go from about $17 to the current $212.</p>\n<p>But you shouldn't get lulled into buying the hype surrounding this meme stock. The run was partly fueled by a Reddit group, which promoted the stock and also created a short squeeze that led the price higher. That makes for great headlines, but there are strong reasons to avoid getting pulled in.</p>\n<h2>Trying to transition</h2>\n<p>GameStop, which sells video game consoles and software, was already experiencing weakening sales heading into 2020. Same-store sales (comps) fell by 19.4% in 2019, following that up with a 9.5% drop last year.</p>\n<p>While the company was experiencing strong sales growth for a long time, the last few years have been rough. It posted negative comps in four out of the last five years. That's due in no small part to a world that is changing, and people can increasingly download games from a variety of reputable companies such as Epic Games, Steam, <b> Microsoft</b>, and <b> Sony</b>.</p>\n<p>A major investor saw an opportunity to turn around GameStop's fortunes. RC Ventures, headed by Ryan Cohen, founder of the online company <b>Chewy</b>, built a 13% ownership in the company. He is now chairman of GameStop and has made key management changes, including hiring a new CEO and CFO who previously worked for <b>Amazon</b>.</p>\n<p>Clearly, Cohen has committed his financial resources and time to making GameStop successful. While he built up impressive credentials at Chewy, which PetSmart bought for $3.4 billion (and still owns a majority stake in despite taking the company public), can he work his magic this time around?</p>\n<h2>Don't get fooled</h2>\n<p>It's a tough road to get GameStop moving in the right direction. Management didn't provide a comparable sales figure, but the fiscal first quarter's top line did increase by better than 25% to $1.3 billion for the period ended on May 1. But you shouldn't get overly excited by this impressive headline figure.</p>\n<p>It is difficult to make year-over-year comparisons since the company cut its store base by 12%. While this would make the sales growth seem more impressive, remember, GameStop was forced to close stores last year due to the pandemic. So this depressed the year-ago figure. Then, the current period benefited from Sony and Microsoft releasing new game consoles last year. This will prove to be a temporary lift since it's a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-time purchase.</p>\n<p>The company will need to follow this up with improved game sales. However, software sales were down during the period. While the company blamed this on lower used game inventory, it has gotten a boost in the past when companies released new systems. This suggests that GameStop's hope for a multi-year bounce from the new systems is already facing hurdles.</p>\n<h2>Details lacking</h2>\n<p>While the new management team has online e-commerce experience, details on a plan forward remain lacking. Undoubtedly, that is coming as the executives meet and figure out where they want to go. However, with stiff online competition, it is tough to invest in the company without knowing how it will turn itself around and get sales back to sustained profitability.</p>\n<p>That's why you should leave GameStop's shares on the shelf.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Stock to Avoid No Matter What</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Stock to Avoid No Matter What\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 17:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/1-stock-to-avoid-no-matter-what-gamestop/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop (NYSE:GME) has certainly had a wild ride this year. If you owned the stock coming into 2021, it was a lot of fun watching the per-share price go from about $17 to the current $212.\nBut you ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/1-stock-to-avoid-no-matter-what-gamestop/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/1-stock-to-avoid-no-matter-what-gamestop/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143979397","content_text":"GameStop (NYSE:GME) has certainly had a wild ride this year. If you owned the stock coming into 2021, it was a lot of fun watching the per-share price go from about $17 to the current $212.\nBut you shouldn't get lulled into buying the hype surrounding this meme stock. The run was partly fueled by a Reddit group, which promoted the stock and also created a short squeeze that led the price higher. That makes for great headlines, but there are strong reasons to avoid getting pulled in.\nTrying to transition\nGameStop, which sells video game consoles and software, was already experiencing weakening sales heading into 2020. Same-store sales (comps) fell by 19.4% in 2019, following that up with a 9.5% drop last year.\nWhile the company was experiencing strong sales growth for a long time, the last few years have been rough. It posted negative comps in four out of the last five years. That's due in no small part to a world that is changing, and people can increasingly download games from a variety of reputable companies such as Epic Games, Steam,  Microsoft, and  Sony.\nA major investor saw an opportunity to turn around GameStop's fortunes. RC Ventures, headed by Ryan Cohen, founder of the online company Chewy, built a 13% ownership in the company. He is now chairman of GameStop and has made key management changes, including hiring a new CEO and CFO who previously worked for Amazon.\nClearly, Cohen has committed his financial resources and time to making GameStop successful. While he built up impressive credentials at Chewy, which PetSmart bought for $3.4 billion (and still owns a majority stake in despite taking the company public), can he work his magic this time around?\nDon't get fooled\nIt's a tough road to get GameStop moving in the right direction. Management didn't provide a comparable sales figure, but the fiscal first quarter's top line did increase by better than 25% to $1.3 billion for the period ended on May 1. But you shouldn't get overly excited by this impressive headline figure.\nIt is difficult to make year-over-year comparisons since the company cut its store base by 12%. While this would make the sales growth seem more impressive, remember, GameStop was forced to close stores last year due to the pandemic. So this depressed the year-ago figure. Then, the current period benefited from Sony and Microsoft releasing new game consoles last year. This will prove to be a temporary lift since it's a one-time purchase.\nThe company will need to follow this up with improved game sales. However, software sales were down during the period. While the company blamed this on lower used game inventory, it has gotten a boost in the past when companies released new systems. This suggests that GameStop's hope for a multi-year bounce from the new systems is already facing hurdles.\nDetails lacking\nWhile the new management team has online e-commerce experience, details on a plan forward remain lacking. Undoubtedly, that is coming as the executives meet and figure out where they want to go. However, with stiff online competition, it is tough to invest in the company without knowing how it will turn itself around and get sales back to sustained profitability.\nThat's why you should leave GameStop's shares on the shelf.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166862552,"gmtCreate":1624002660176,"gmtModify":1703826255217,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Manipulative interest rates","listText":"Manipulative interest rates","text":"Manipulative interest rates","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166862552","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144286417","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623970062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144286417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144286417","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 17  - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.The marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous d","content":"<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 06:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","NAB.AU":"NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","AAPL":"苹果","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144286417","content_text":"June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.\nThe marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.\nMany investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.\nFed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.\n\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.\nTechnology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.\nInvestors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.\nMeanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.\nThe Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.\nInterest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.\nThe strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&P sectors.\nOther economically sensitive stocks, including materials and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166866512,"gmtCreate":1624002602436,"gmtModify":1703826247912,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don’t forget AMD","listText":"Don’t forget AMD","text":"Don’t forget AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166866512","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166861188,"gmtCreate":1624002454844,"gmtModify":1703826244811,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Online giant","listText":"Online giant","text":"Online giant","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166861188","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166863504,"gmtCreate":1624002423008,"gmtModify":1703826243676,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166863504","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146386859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623417074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146386859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146386859","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly spec","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.</li>\n <li>Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.</li>\n <li>As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Dominating the Chinese Market</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.</p>\n<p>In recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b2ed509a529a876c423f3e9426be3f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Chart: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>Despite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.</p>\n<p>One of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.</p>\n<p>On top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71905e5a90565b6a7e8864b3f6b0c226\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>At this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.</p>\n<p>All of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.</p>\n<p>Another uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.</p>\n<p>Considering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146386859","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.\nAs the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.\n\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.\nDominating the Chinese Market\nFounded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.\nIn recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&P 500 Index.\n\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nDespite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.\nOne of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.\nOn top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAt this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.\nAll of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.\nAnother uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.\nGoing forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.\nConsidering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166884799,"gmtCreate":1624002236911,"gmtModify":1703826238017,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Technology trend","listText":"Technology trend","text":"Technology trend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166884799","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166885545,"gmtCreate":1624002195387,"gmtModify":1703826236564,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","listText":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","text":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166885545","repostId":"1117650695","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":164494723,"gmtCreate":1624232631762,"gmtModify":1703830913676,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164494723","repostId":"2145470425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166885545,"gmtCreate":1624002195387,"gmtModify":1703826236564,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","listText":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","text":"Valuation vs conservative calculation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166885545","repostId":"1117650695","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117650695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623902228,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117650695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117650695","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Shopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.Shopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.Fulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.Shopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.Shopify  is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.</li>\n <li>Shopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.</li>\n <li>Fulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.</li>\n <li>Shopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f3ab455f8b2c1956c4124771b084d9\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Shopify (SHOP) is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify is on its way to becoming a $5b annual revenue company and its fulfillment center strategy provides fertile ground for stock price appreciation. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)should be worried.</p>\n<p><b>Why Shopify is a strong buy</b></p>\n<p>Shopify enables people to start an online business relatively fast and with very little cost. Itse-commerce platform offers a suite of integrated products and apps that includes marketing functionality, payment processing and customer engagement tools. Shopify’s core services are paid for on a subscription basis with the most basic plan starting at $29-month.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e35fa316c0fd7e939400d53fd623fb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Thee-commerce market is booming, not just because of the pandemic. The ease of shopping and the wide distribution of mobile devices made online shopping popular even before COVID-19 emerged. Globale-commerce sales are expected to rise in the future with some estimates calling for global online sales of $4.9 trillion in 2021... with sales growing 30% to $6.4 trillion by 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9918556cae0d9e7fdb0e58780b922413\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"460\"><span>(Source:Oberlo)</span></p>\n<p>Online sales are not only expected to grow in absolute terms but also relatively: E-Commerce is taking an ever-growing share of retail sales, a trend that accelerated during the 2020 pandemic year. Thee-commerce share of retail sales in 2020 was 18% and is projected to grow to 21.8% by 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7297749c9cb665e56f89bb920507e5\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source:Oberlo)</span></p>\n<p>Growth ine-commerce and merchandise volumes are not dependent on one particular category either. People buy everything from fashion items to personal care products online. According to Hootsuite’sDigital 2021 Global Overview Report, money spent on travel and accommodation cratered 51% due to the pandemic but all other categories grew sales by at least 18% Y/Y.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd515034ac6d1ea79da171cca44eacb0\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>(Source: Digital 2021Global Overview Report)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify also saw a year of revenue acceleration during the pandemic… just like Amazon did. As people lost their jobs because of COVID-19 and remote working became the new standard, Shopify’s merchant platform gained in popularity, too. The pandemic also helped shift a lot of purchasing power online as retail stores and small businesses shut their doors. Shopify benefited from these unfortunate trends by experiencing a surge in revenues as more retailers built online stores and processed transactions through Shopify. Shopify’s revenues surged 86% to $2.9b in FY 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47be367ae30fc395bd0cf9f998f5efc0\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"574\"><span>(Source:Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify’s revenues can be broken down into two parts, subscriptions and merchant solutions. Subscriptions include the payments for monthly plans and merchant solutions include additional costs for doing business through Shopify, such as payment processing fees and costs associated with Shopify Shipping and point-of-sale terminals. Revenues from merchant solutions have become more important for Shopify over time as the platform developed its ecosystem and created new apps and products for its merchants to use.</p>\n<p>2020 was a banner year for Shopify and its merchants. The gross merchandise value, the amount cumulatively sold through Shopify, doubled from $61.1b before the pandemic to $119.6b a year later. While 2020 growth rates will likely decline in 2021 as normal retail businesses open their doors again, merchandise volumes will continue to grow as thee-commerce market expands. I estimate that Shopify’s GMV will reach $210b for FY 2021 and $340b next year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845466a2e9dd8dcae9d4d3c4542611c9\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"546\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify’s FY 2020 gross profits also saw rapid growth. Gross profits surged 78% to $1.6b with more growth expected in FY 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2530faf2d14eb2bb0f90d05694eba0b\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p><b>Taking on Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Shopify’s merchant platform shows healthy growth in subscriber and merchant revenues and merchant revenues are going to continue to grow in importance as Shopify signs up new partners and develops its apps suite. This is quite predictable.</p>\n<p>Longer term, however, Shopify should emerge as a growing threat to Amazon because of its investments in fulfillment centers. Entering the physical space is the next step in Shopify’s evolution and Amazon should be worried. Amazon is still the largeste-commerce platform, by far, but Shopify’s move into fulfillment centers is set to narrow this existing gap between the two companies. Amazon’s share of US retaile-commerce share is 4.5 times larger than Shopify’s giving Shopify a lot of potential to catch up...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5108b1c5dead03ebaec97df972ed74f7\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Building its own fulfillment centers makes strategic sense for Shopify since it solves problems that a lot of online retailers have. Fulfillment centers, as the same implies, take over the function of fulfillment. This means a merchant that sells on Shopify sends goods to a warehouse and Shopify takes over order processing and shipping in return for a fee. The benefit for the retailer is obvious: Reduced shipping times and optimized inventory management.</p>\n<p>The benefit for Shopify: It can collect more revenues by controlling the fulfillment part of the sales process. While Shopify will build new fulfillment centers in the US as part of a $1b investment plan, it also provides Shopify with the option to use its US fulfillment network as a springboard to enter markets outside the US and drive its international expansion.</p>\n<p>Shopify is cashed up after the pandemic year and has more than enough cash to finance its expansion which in the future will likely include the expansion into international fulfillment markets. Shopify’s balance sheet is healthy enough to support the platform’s growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b284d5316a0604662b9dd5af30215f3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"542\"><span>(Source:Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>If Shopify and Amazon were to go toe-to-toe, Amazon would have a distinct advantage… because it is so much bigger than Shopify and because its website is drawing the most traffic as the number onee-commerce platform in the US. Amazon is about ten times bigger than Shopify regarding market value and Amazon has sales that are more than one hundred times larger than Shopify’s… so the battle between these twoe-commerce companies can be seen as a battle between David and Goliath, with Amazon being the Goliath.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d0d062b9a02247c1e38dc5b0c23343\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"500\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>But Shopify is growing its merchant platform fast and operates from a much smaller revenue base, which is easier to scale. Shopify has more than 1.7m merchants signed on to its platform from 175 countries and continually develops news complementary sources of revenues. In its latestproduct news, Shopify announced that it will make its “one-click checkout” available to all merchants selling on Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)&nbsp;and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)using Shop Pay. The integration is set to lower the “abandoned card” problem many retailers have which is customers not completing the checkout process. Shop Pay could provide a remedy to this problem by making the checkout process easier and more efficient.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Margins ine-commerce are very thin and growing competition in the industry will make things worse long term. The easy and relatively low-cost entry into thee-commerce market could also turn out to be a problem longer term. Companies that win ine-commerce are companies like Shopify with their own ecosystems that create a moat and protect against competition. Slowing revenue growth and an overblown valuation may be the two biggest risks for Shopify.</p>\n<p><b>You pay for Shopify's growth...</b></p>\n<p>By the end of next year Shopify should be a $5b annual revenue company, but the critical revenue milestone could be reached much sooner if Shopify manages to grow as fast as it did during the pandemic. The expectation is for Shopify to earn $4.35-share on revenues of $4.4b in FY 2021 with revenues scaling to ten-fold to $42b this decade. I believe fulfillment centers alone represent a $1b annual revenue opportunity for Shopify long term. Revenues for FY 2022 should also be closer to $6.5b with the consensus calling for revenues of \"only\" $5.9b.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add63adc4e771f68c7aa36779607334d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Amazon still has a big lead on Shopify, but the twoe-commerce companies are set to go toe-to-toe long term. Every new product that Shopify rolls out and every new fulfillment center it builds brings Shopify one step closer to taking Amazon head-on. Although Shopify is more expensive than Amazon on a per-dollar-of-revenue basis, the merchant platform clearly has the stature and ambition to take on Amazon.</p>\n<p>Shopify trades at a P-S ratio of 28, but you pay for growth...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f713ad31e8c26c8d670a737c252cdb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Shopify has an incredible long-term growth opportunity and Amazon should be worried.</p>\n<p>Shopify has proven to be a real innovator in the industry and constantly develops new products that make online shopping easier for both the online retailer and the merchant.</p>\n<p>Although Shopify has a much higher P-S ratio than Amazon, Shopify has more potential to grow because of its relatively smaller revenue base and market cap.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment center strategy makes a lot of strategic sense and will fortify Shopify's position in the e-commerce market. It can also fuel Shopify's international expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.\nShopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.\nFulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117650695","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.\nShopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.\nFulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.\nShopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nShopify (SHOP) is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify is on its way to becoming a $5b annual revenue company and its fulfillment center strategy provides fertile ground for stock price appreciation. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)should be worried.\nWhy Shopify is a strong buy\nShopify enables people to start an online business relatively fast and with very little cost. Itse-commerce platform offers a suite of integrated products and apps that includes marketing functionality, payment processing and customer engagement tools. Shopify’s core services are paid for on a subscription basis with the most basic plan starting at $29-month.\n(Source: Shopify)\nThee-commerce market is booming, not just because of the pandemic. The ease of shopping and the wide distribution of mobile devices made online shopping popular even before COVID-19 emerged. Globale-commerce sales are expected to rise in the future with some estimates calling for global online sales of $4.9 trillion in 2021... with sales growing 30% to $6.4 trillion by 2024.\n(Source:Oberlo)\nOnline sales are not only expected to grow in absolute terms but also relatively: E-Commerce is taking an ever-growing share of retail sales, a trend that accelerated during the 2020 pandemic year. Thee-commerce share of retail sales in 2020 was 18% and is projected to grow to 21.8% by 2024.\n(Source:Oberlo)\nGrowth ine-commerce and merchandise volumes are not dependent on one particular category either. People buy everything from fashion items to personal care products online. According to Hootsuite’sDigital 2021 Global Overview Report, money spent on travel and accommodation cratered 51% due to the pandemic but all other categories grew sales by at least 18% Y/Y.\n(Source: Digital 2021Global Overview Report)\nShopify also saw a year of revenue acceleration during the pandemic… just like Amazon did. As people lost their jobs because of COVID-19 and remote working became the new standard, Shopify’s merchant platform gained in popularity, too. The pandemic also helped shift a lot of purchasing power online as retail stores and small businesses shut their doors. Shopify benefited from these unfortunate trends by experiencing a surge in revenues as more retailers built online stores and processed transactions through Shopify. Shopify’s revenues surged 86% to $2.9b in FY 2020.\n(Source:Shopify)\nShopify’s revenues can be broken down into two parts, subscriptions and merchant solutions. Subscriptions include the payments for monthly plans and merchant solutions include additional costs for doing business through Shopify, such as payment processing fees and costs associated with Shopify Shipping and point-of-sale terminals. Revenues from merchant solutions have become more important for Shopify over time as the platform developed its ecosystem and created new apps and products for its merchants to use.\n2020 was a banner year for Shopify and its merchants. The gross merchandise value, the amount cumulatively sold through Shopify, doubled from $61.1b before the pandemic to $119.6b a year later. While 2020 growth rates will likely decline in 2021 as normal retail businesses open their doors again, merchandise volumes will continue to grow as thee-commerce market expands. I estimate that Shopify’s GMV will reach $210b for FY 2021 and $340b next year.\n(Source: Shopify)\nShopify’s FY 2020 gross profits also saw rapid growth. Gross profits surged 78% to $1.6b with more growth expected in FY 2021.\n(Source: Shopify)\nTaking on Amazon\nShopify’s merchant platform shows healthy growth in subscriber and merchant revenues and merchant revenues are going to continue to grow in importance as Shopify signs up new partners and develops its apps suite. This is quite predictable.\nLonger term, however, Shopify should emerge as a growing threat to Amazon because of its investments in fulfillment centers. Entering the physical space is the next step in Shopify’s evolution and Amazon should be worried. Amazon is still the largeste-commerce platform, by far, but Shopify’s move into fulfillment centers is set to narrow this existing gap between the two companies. Amazon’s share of US retaile-commerce share is 4.5 times larger than Shopify’s giving Shopify a lot of potential to catch up...\n(Source: Shopify)\nBuilding its own fulfillment centers makes strategic sense for Shopify since it solves problems that a lot of online retailers have. Fulfillment centers, as the same implies, take over the function of fulfillment. This means a merchant that sells on Shopify sends goods to a warehouse and Shopify takes over order processing and shipping in return for a fee. The benefit for the retailer is obvious: Reduced shipping times and optimized inventory management.\nThe benefit for Shopify: It can collect more revenues by controlling the fulfillment part of the sales process. While Shopify will build new fulfillment centers in the US as part of a $1b investment plan, it also provides Shopify with the option to use its US fulfillment network as a springboard to enter markets outside the US and drive its international expansion.\nShopify is cashed up after the pandemic year and has more than enough cash to finance its expansion which in the future will likely include the expansion into international fulfillment markets. Shopify’s balance sheet is healthy enough to support the platform’s growth.\n(Source:Shopify)\nIf Shopify and Amazon were to go toe-to-toe, Amazon would have a distinct advantage… because it is so much bigger than Shopify and because its website is drawing the most traffic as the number onee-commerce platform in the US. Amazon is about ten times bigger than Shopify regarding market value and Amazon has sales that are more than one hundred times larger than Shopify’s… so the battle between these twoe-commerce companies can be seen as a battle between David and Goliath, with Amazon being the Goliath.\nData by YCharts\nBut Shopify is growing its merchant platform fast and operates from a much smaller revenue base, which is easier to scale. Shopify has more than 1.7m merchants signed on to its platform from 175 countries and continually develops news complementary sources of revenues. In its latestproduct news, Shopify announced that it will make its “one-click checkout” available to all merchants selling on Facebook(NASDAQ:FB) and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)using Shop Pay. The integration is set to lower the “abandoned card” problem many retailers have which is customers not completing the checkout process. Shop Pay could provide a remedy to this problem by making the checkout process easier and more efficient.\nRisks\nMargins ine-commerce are very thin and growing competition in the industry will make things worse long term. The easy and relatively low-cost entry into thee-commerce market could also turn out to be a problem longer term. Companies that win ine-commerce are companies like Shopify with their own ecosystems that create a moat and protect against competition. Slowing revenue growth and an overblown valuation may be the two biggest risks for Shopify.\nYou pay for Shopify's growth...\nBy the end of next year Shopify should be a $5b annual revenue company, but the critical revenue milestone could be reached much sooner if Shopify manages to grow as fast as it did during the pandemic. The expectation is for Shopify to earn $4.35-share on revenues of $4.4b in FY 2021 with revenues scaling to ten-fold to $42b this decade. I believe fulfillment centers alone represent a $1b annual revenue opportunity for Shopify long term. Revenues for FY 2022 should also be closer to $6.5b with the consensus calling for revenues of \"only\" $5.9b.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAmazon still has a big lead on Shopify, but the twoe-commerce companies are set to go toe-to-toe long term. Every new product that Shopify rolls out and every new fulfillment center it builds brings Shopify one step closer to taking Amazon head-on. Although Shopify is more expensive than Amazon on a per-dollar-of-revenue basis, the merchant platform clearly has the stature and ambition to take on Amazon.\nShopify trades at a P-S ratio of 28, but you pay for growth...\nData by YCharts\nFinal thoughts\nShopify has an incredible long-term growth opportunity and Amazon should be worried.\nShopify has proven to be a real innovator in the industry and constantly develops new products that make online shopping easier for both the online retailer and the merchant.\nAlthough Shopify has a much higher P-S ratio than Amazon, Shopify has more potential to grow because of its relatively smaller revenue base and market cap.\nThe fulfillment center strategy makes a lot of strategic sense and will fortify Shopify's position in the e-commerce market. It can also fuel Shopify's international expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166862552,"gmtCreate":1624002660176,"gmtModify":1703826255217,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Manipulative interest rates","listText":"Manipulative interest rates","text":"Manipulative interest rates","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166862552","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144286417","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623970062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144286417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144286417","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 17  - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.The marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous d","content":"<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 06:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&amp;P nursing a very minor loss.</p>\n<p>The marginal decline was the S&amp;P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.</p>\n<p>Many investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.</p>\n<p>\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>Technology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.</p>\n<p>Investors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.</p>\n<p>Interest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.</p>\n<p>The strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&amp;P sectors.</p>\n<p>Other economically sensitive stocks, including materials&nbsp;and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","NAB.AU":"NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","AAPL":"苹果","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144286417","content_text":"June 17 (Reuters) - Conviction in the strength of the economic recovery pushed investors into U.S. technology stocks on Thursday, driving the Nasdaq higher, although a post-Fed hangover left a subdued S&P nursing a very minor loss.\nThe marginal decline was the S&P's third negative finish in a row, while the Dow - with a more pronounced drop - posted its fourth straight lower close.\nMany investors were still processing the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish message on monetary policy from the previous day, which projected the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes in 2023.\nFed officials cited an improved economic outlook as the U.S. economy recovers quickly from the pandemic, with overall growth expected to hit 7% this year. While careful not to derail the recovery - with no end in sight for supportive policy measures such as bond-buying - the rate-rise signal highlighted concerns about inflation.\n\"I think there was a scenario that people had in mind, that the Fed was going to allow for a larger and longer inflation overshoot, and I think with the increase in the dot plot yesterday... people are rethinking that scenario,\" said David Lefkowitz, head of equities for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.\nTechnology shares, which generally perform better when interest rates are low, powered a rally on Wall Street last year as investors flocked to stocks seen as relatively safe during times of economic turmoil.\nInvestors returned to such positions on Thursday. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp jumped 4.8%, posting its fourth consecutive record close, after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock.\nMeanwhile, shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Facebook Inc shook off premarket declines to advance between 1.3% and 2.2% as investors bet that a steady economic rebound would boost demand for their products in the long run.\nThe Nasdaq ended 13 points short of its record finish on Monday, but it was still the index's second-highest close ever.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210.22 points, or 0.62%, to 33,823.45, the S&P 500 lost 1.84 points, or 0.04%, to 4,221.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 121.67 points, or 0.87%, to 14,161.35.\nInterest rate-sensitive bank stocks slumped 4.3% as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields dropped.\nThe strengthening dollar, another by-product of the previous day's Fed news, pushed U.S. oil prices down from the multi-year high hit earlier in the week. The energy index, in turn, was off 3.5%, the biggest laggard among the 11 main S&P sectors.\nOther economically sensitive stocks, including materials and industrials, fell 2.2% and 1.6% respectively as data showed jobless claims rising last week for the first time in more than a month. Still, layoffs appeared to be easing amid a reopening economy and a shortage of people willing to work.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.77 billion shares, compared with the 10.67 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 37 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166866512,"gmtCreate":1624002602436,"gmtModify":1703826247912,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don’t forget AMD","listText":"Don’t forget AMD","text":"Don’t forget AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166866512","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166884799,"gmtCreate":1624002236911,"gmtModify":1703826238017,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Technology trend","listText":"Technology trend","text":"Technology trend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166884799","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148768572?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>\n <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>\n <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>\n <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p>\n<p>In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p>\n<p><b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p>\n<p>Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p>\n<p>Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p>\n<p>It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p>\n<p>I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p>\n<p>Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p>\n<p><b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p>\n<p>Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Year</td>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>2019</td>\n   <td>2018</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Revenue</td>\n   <td>$2.54B</td>\n   <td>$1.9B</td>\n   <td>$1.73B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Gross Profit</td>\n   <td>$1.59B</td>\n   <td>$1.46B</td>\n   <td>$1.45B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MAUs</td>\n   <td>107M (+19%)</td>\n   <td><p>90M (+10%)</p></td>\n   <td>82M</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>*Growth (Year-over-Year)</p>\n<p>The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p>\n<p>In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p>\n<p><b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p>\n<p>Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p>\n<p>Short Interest - Still High</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p>\n<p>Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162443131,"gmtCreate":1624072979623,"gmtModify":1703828248577,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Techinical rush","listText":"Techinical rush","text":"Techinical rush","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162443131","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166861188,"gmtCreate":1624002454844,"gmtModify":1703826244811,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Online giant","listText":"Online giant","text":"Online giant","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166861188","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165126597,"gmtCreate":1624108532219,"gmtModify":1703828927079,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165126597","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156696708","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624063306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156696708?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156696708","media":"cnbc","summary":"Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since Octob","content":"<div>\n<p>Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected.\nThe blue-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow falls more than 500 points to close out its worst week since October\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 08:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected.\nThe blue-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1156696708","content_text":"Stocks fell on Friday, with theDow Jones Industrial Averageposting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 533.37 points, or 1.6%, to 33,290.08. TheS&P 500slid 1.3% to 4,166.45. Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit their session lows in the final minutes of trading and closed around those levels. TheNasdaq Compositeclosed 0.9% lower at 14,030.38. Economic comeback plays led the market losses.\nFor the week, the 30-stock Dow lost 3.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down by 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively, week to date.\nSt. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullardtold CNBC's \"Squawk Box\"on Friday it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022. His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year, putting pressure on stock prices.\n\"The fear held by some investors is that if the Fed tightens policy sooner than expected to help cool inflationary pressures, this could weigh on future economic growth,\" Truist Advisory Services chief market strategist Keith Lerner said in a note. To be sure, he added it would be premature to give up on the so-called value trade right now.\nPockets of the market most sensitive to the economic rebound led the sell-off this week. The S&P 500 energy sector and industrials dropped 5.2% and 3.8%, respectively, for the week. Financials and materials meanwhile, lost more than 6% each. These groups had been market leaders this year on the back of the economic reopening.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve. This means the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys — like the 2-year note — rose while longer-duration yields like the benchmark 10-year declined. The retreat in long-dated bond yields reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon hurt bank stocks particularly as their earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase shares on Friday lost more than 2% each. Citigroup fell by 1.8%, posting its 12th straight daily decline.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"This week's first whiff of an eventual change in Fed policy was a reminder that emergency monetary conditions and the free-money era will ultimately end,\" strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. \"We expect a series of incremental retreats from the Fed's benign inflation outlook in the coming months.\"\nCommodity prices were underpressure this weekas China attempted to cool rising prices and as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Copper, gold and platinum fell once again on Friday.\nFriday also coincided with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" in which options and futures on indexes and equities expire. This event may have contributed to more volatile trading during the session.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166864788,"gmtCreate":1624002766444,"gmtModify":1703826253106,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ipo heat?&nbsp;","listText":"Ipo heat?&nbsp;","text":"Ipo heat?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166864788","repostId":"1183583910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183583910","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623919017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183583910?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 16:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"SenseTime confirmed to list in Hong Kong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183583910","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"It is reported that SenseTime confirmed to be listed in Hong Kong,application will be submitted to ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21446f1b70ff8c8a905dcdd49797b62\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It&nbsp;is&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that&nbsp;SenseTime confirmed to be listed in Hong Kong,application&nbsp;will be submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as soon as August.</p><p>The Chinese biometric unicorn was previously rumored to be considering an initial public offering on the&nbsp;Shanghai STAR market, expecting to raise $1.5 billion at a $10 billion valuation.</p><p>The publication says SenseTime executives discussed a potential Hong Kong listing internally and with third parties. A source suggested the company is open to a listing in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, though not necessarily at the same time.</p><p>Chinese media reports earlier this year included a $12 billion valuation for SenseTime in its latest financing round.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SenseTime confirmed to list in Hong Kong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenseTime confirmed to list in Hong Kong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 16:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21446f1b70ff8c8a905dcdd49797b62\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It&nbsp;is&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that&nbsp;SenseTime confirmed to be listed in Hong Kong,application&nbsp;will be submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as soon as August.</p><p>The Chinese biometric unicorn was previously rumored to be considering an initial public offering on the&nbsp;Shanghai STAR market, expecting to raise $1.5 billion at a $10 billion valuation.</p><p>The publication says SenseTime executives discussed a potential Hong Kong listing internally and with third parties. A source suggested the company is open to a listing in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, though not necessarily at the same time.</p><p>Chinese media reports earlier this year included a $12 billion valuation for SenseTime in its latest financing round.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183583910","content_text":"It is reported that SenseTime confirmed to be listed in Hong Kong,application will be submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as soon as August.The Chinese biometric unicorn was previously rumored to be considering an initial public offering on the Shanghai STAR market, expecting to raise $1.5 billion at a $10 billion valuation.The publication says SenseTime executives discussed a potential Hong Kong listing internally and with third parties. A source suggested the company is open to a listing in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, though not necessarily at the same time.Chinese media reports earlier this year included a $12 billion valuation for SenseTime in its latest financing round.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166865558,"gmtCreate":1624002711774,"gmtModify":1703826250832,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speculation will never ends","listText":"Speculation will never ends","text":"Speculation will never ends","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166865558","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166863504,"gmtCreate":1624002423008,"gmtModify":1703826243676,"author":{"id":"3586586833238476","authorId":"3586586833238476","name":"Constellatio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4b7604adeb7d0502bb2026b6cf3ba3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586586833238476","authorIdStr":"3586586833238476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166863504","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146386859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623417074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146386859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146386859","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly spec","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.</li>\n <li>Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.</li>\n <li>As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Dominating the Chinese Market</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.</p>\n<p>In recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b2ed509a529a876c423f3e9426be3f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Chart: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>Despite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.</p>\n<p>One of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.</p>\n<p>On top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71905e5a90565b6a7e8864b3f6b0c226\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>At this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.</p>\n<p>All of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.</p>\n<p>Another uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.</p>\n<p>Considering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146386859","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.\nAs the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.\n\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.\nDominating the Chinese Market\nFounded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.\nIn recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&P 500 Index.\n\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nDespite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.\nOne of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.\nOn top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAt this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.\nAll of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.\nAnother uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.\nGoing forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.\nConsidering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}