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2023-05-12

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@JC888:With April CPI at 4.9%, Microsoft Time To Shine ?

2023-05-12

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@pekss:Will Disney roar like Winnie the Pooh after its earnings?

2023-05-12

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@Tiger_comments:Bet on Growth Stocks? Learn about Straddle Strategy!

2021-08-29

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$???

2021-08-29

Nice

@3Fs:Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference

2021-08-27

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$??

2021-08-19

???

2021-08-19

Value

2021-08-19

$SEA LTD(SE)$???

2021-07-27

Collect before fly

SoFi Technologies: A Next Generation Banking Disruptor

2021-07-27

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$Airbnb ???

2021-07-27

Yeah

Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962897","repostId":"9970934603","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970934603,"gmtCreate":1683803111603,"gmtModify":1683804038936,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"With April CPI at 4.9%, Microsoft Time To Shine ?","htmlText":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970092160\" target=\"_blank\">click to read my post!</a> and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&amp;P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","listText":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970092160\" target=\"_blank\">click to read my post!</a> and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&amp;P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","text":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (click to read my post! and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b00acc0adb15271d8e2f4ed5539516fe","width":"1047","height":"248"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5f8228484b5ad0fe869f776033934056","width":"540","height":"57"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/862132aea9f4b4dfb1b5d90971426c95","width":"1140","height":"259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970934603","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970962931,"gmtCreate":1683825524524,"gmtModify":1683825528000,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962931","repostId":"9970085751","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970085751,"gmtCreate":1683721928474,"gmtModify":1683725352856,"author":{"id":"3581636635898281","authorId":"3581636635898281","name":"pekss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dfef98c44b3810cffef7f3eb78524ba","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636635898281","authorIdStr":"3581636635898281"},"themes":[],"title":"Will Disney roar like Winnie the Pooh after its earnings?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and aggressive <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and aggressive <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon</a>","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent $Netflix(NFLX)$ and aggressive $Amazon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970085751","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970962018,"gmtCreate":1683825510534,"gmtModify":1683825514394,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962018","repostId":"9970061739","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970061739,"gmtCreate":1683725454521,"gmtModify":1683863297556,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"Bet on Growth Stocks? Learn about Straddle Strategy!","htmlText":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> shares dropped as much as 20%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a> dropped 17%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a> surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","listText":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> shares dropped as much as 20%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a> dropped 17%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a> surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","text":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ shares dropped as much as 20%; $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ dropped 17%; $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40e3e115eaeb155afaaddc9c0e411a43","width":"505","height":"428"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62fa386ed43222f9c3a5c7626faf1f96","width":"1080","height":"2338"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0216ec284b7d390340a9041fe77b2f4d","width":"2044","height":"1448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970061739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813431647,"gmtCreate":1630227124689,"gmtModify":1676530247446,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>???","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9fd8ee2deeeedd427a43aeb2c33884","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813431647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813431351,"gmtCreate":1630227082673,"gmtModify":1676530247437,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813431351","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1703499292702,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807919017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810479623,"gmtCreate":1629998488062,"gmtModify":1676530197190,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>??","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2cfec28cdc34ac4a817b9893223039","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810479623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838845483,"gmtCreate":1629387339242,"gmtModify":1676530026351,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d604d9c398919cecb772a4df7930914a","width":"1125","height":"3700"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838845483","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831848490,"gmtCreate":1629303610710,"gmtModify":1676529998676,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Value&nbsp;","listText":"Value&nbsp;","text":"Value","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0507b79d4a46909f01f6985ee3913668","width":"1125","height":"3613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831848490","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831848012,"gmtCreate":1629303549236,"gmtModify":1676529998651,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>???","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b8bd4e82518f96c78b531466b3cf05","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831848012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809742953,"gmtCreate":1627394548672,"gmtModify":1703489094452,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Collect before fly&nbsp;","listText":"Collect before fly&nbsp;","text":"Collect before fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809742953","repostId":"1139811761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139811761","pubTimestamp":1627378490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139811761?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 17:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Technologies: A Next Generation Banking Disruptor","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139811761","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSOFI started off as a simple provider of loans, and has since expanded its offerings to enc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>SOFI started off as a simple provider of loans, and has since expanded its offerings to encompass a large array of services that make for a compelling fintech ecosystem.</li>\n <li>Against traditional banks and fintech players, SOFI has a competitive advantage, as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.</li>\n <li>When valued as a traditional bank, SOFI checks off all the boxes for a compelling business, with a strategy that will likely lead to stellar metrics in the long run.</li>\n <li>SOFI can also be seen as undervalued relative to expectations, which suggests the strong likelihood of upside even at this price.</li>\n <li>While there might be salient risks in an investment in this newly-IPOed company, its strategic positioning and strong fundamentals give investors confidence that they will be able to outperform in the long run.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86757d2b7d17b7fe7071210bad77f795\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>SoFI(NASDAQ:SOFI)represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry. They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector - from personal loans, home loans, and even to insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.</p>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience. Q1'21 was their best showing yet, with a year-on-year increase of over 110% in members, as well a 121% y/y increase in the number of products sold.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2687200d2eb156aaaf3715e1d94bc0b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Accelerating User Growth. Source:SoFI Q1'21 Investors Presentation)</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdeb614c065bc50b1727d89843549d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Accelerating Product Growth. Source: SoFI Q1'21 Investors Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Crucially, SOFI's integrated platform differentiates them from traditional banking peers as well as new age fintech players. From the angle of a traditional bank, SOFI appears to check-off all the boxes for a compelling business, which gives investors confidence that they are operating a model that is sustainable in the long-run.</p>\n<p><b>Competitive Advantage</b></p>\n<p>Typically, there are a few metrics to look at when evaluating traditional banks. These include, customer acquisition costs, lifetime value of consumers, interest and non-interest income, as well as investment quality. From each of these angles, SOFI appears poised to outcompete peers, be it from traditional banking or from other fintech players.</p>\n<p><b>Low Customer Acquisition Costs But High Lifetime Value of Consumers</b></p>\n<p>Critically, banks seek revenue growth through two means: increasing the number of customers that they have, and increasing the value they are able to derive from each of their customers through selling them different financial products. This is akin to a traditional consumer electronics firm like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), where their goal is to get more people to buy their products, and increase their bargaining power against consumers to get them to spend more on products.</p>\n<p>Here, SOFI has an advantage over other banks and other fintech firms because of its horizontal diversification to different aspects of consumer finance and to traditional lending as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8245af4c17fbe75bcaf938b49c12062d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(SoFi has a large range of products that is constantly expanding. Source:SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation.)</span></p>\n<p>As part of its strategy, SOFI intends on building a full suite of consumer finance as well as banking services to each of its individuals on a single platform. Currently, they offer a range of products from high-frequency, high-volume but low-value financial services such as SoFi Money, Relay and Invest, to low-frequency, low-volume but high-value financial services such as Home Loans, In-School Loans as well as Personal loans. The former category relies on taking a small cut on a large volume of small transactions, while the latter category monetizes from large interest payments from a large capital base. These happen to cut across many categories of fintech as shown in the fintech map provided by Business Insider:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4568c118cc17271759796b6d7e48d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(The fintech ecosystem and some players within it. Source:Business Insider)</span></p>\n<p>Against fintech firms that primarily monetize on the former category such as payment processors like PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), peer-to-peer lending apps like Cash App from Square(NYSE:SQ)and brokerages like Robinhood (HOOD), SOFI is able to differentiate sufficiently using the latter category of financial services. This is because high-frequency financial services typically have lower margins and rely on the increase in volume and size of transactions as well as growth of their userbase to sustain revenue growth. With high-value loans earning high interest income, SOFI is able to theoretically derive more revenue per customer in the long run, without the need for as high of a userbase growth. SOFI certainly is aiming for high user growth as well, but the point here is that there is an additional lever for SOFI to pull in pursuing revenue growth - preferentially selling users high-value products already in its ecosystem - which reduces the need to devote significant resources to marketing strategies to fuel growth.</p>\n<p>Against traditional banks, SOFI differentiates itself using its low-cost consumer acquisition strategy, enabled through cross-buy opportunities. Instead of directly pursuing user growth with the proposition of selling them high-value financial services, SOFI eases consumers into the ecosystem by giving them free access to low-value but high-frequency products. From that point, it is easier to rope consumers into the higher-value financial services since it is simply getting them to press a few buttons with an account they already have.</p>\n<p>According to SOFI's official pitch deck for their PIPE presentation, the combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. Since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that cross-buys into high-value loans now increases by 180% compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991b3363d25bc185f927e2cb8c71f066\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(SoFi's Cross-buy opportunities. Source: SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation.)</span></p>\n<p>Higher margins will directly translate into the greater ability to reinvest in diversifying their products further or to expand internationally, both of which can help feed into further growth in the future.</p>\n<p>In a nutshell, SOFI's unique business model that ties in multiple aspects of fintech helps them to achieve impressive unit economics but at the same time high lifetime value per consumer, through low customer acquisition costs and opportunities for cross-buy. These two factors together will serve to differentiate SOFI from both the burgeoning fintech sector as well as traditional banks.</p>\n<p><b>Future Interest and Loan Income</b></p>\n<p>For SOFI's lending and cash management products, they primarily earn through a gain-on-sale model where they repackage loans made to customer and sell these loans to other large financial institutions or securitization channels. For loans still on their balance sheet, SOFI also earns an interest income on these loans.</p>\n<p>However, unlike a traditional bank, SOFI is currently unable to use the deposits made by SoFi Money Members to fund its loans because it does not have a national bank charter. Instead, SOFI relies almost entirely on warehouse financing facilities to originate loans and sell them to customers. This involves borrowing from large financial institutions, since a warehouse facility is essentially a large line of credit that they extend to SOFI for the purpose of loaning.</p>\n<p>For SOFI Money, the interest income they are able to earn on their member's deposits is also constrained because of the middleman that they rely on to provide cash management facilities in lieu of SOFI's inability to function as a bank holding company.</p>\n<p>While banks significantly increasing their interest and loan income in the future may not be a sure thing, SOFI will easily be able to secure a higher return on their loans as well as a higher interest income by securing a national bank charter. For one, the bank charter will allow them to use the money that its members deposit with them to fund their loans and therefore use their capital resources more efficiently without relying on a third party for financing options. Alternatively, when combined with existing warehousing facilities, having access to a pool of deposit money will allow SOFI to grow their loan base and therefore increase interest income levels at a higher rate. Cutting out the middleman will allow them to save on premiums paid for these intermediary warehousing or cash management services and therefore earn a greater net interest margin.</p>\n<p>In October last year, the OCC already issued a preliminary conditional approval of their application to be chartered as a de novo national bank.</p>\n<p>As an alternative route to securing a national bank charter,SOFI also entered an agreementto acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp. Their preliminary conditional approval to be chartered as a de novo national bank in October last year may help them to hasten the process of approval for the acquisition and increase the odds of approval, but we will have to see the results in November this year.</p>\n<p>While there is an inherent risk of SOFI not being able to secure this bank charter, the risk/reward balance is asymmetrical because the tailwinds form being able to secure this charter greatly outweighs the downside from failing to do so. In the former case, revenues will begin to skyrocket, but in the latter case, SOFI's cross-buy strategy will still allow them to return better unit economics than most peers, and still grow albeit at a slower than expected pace.</p>\n<p><b>Value-adding via Noninterest, Non-loan income</b></p>\n<p>Their ability to generate non-interest income is a differentiating factor from many traditional banks from the value-add perspective, not just from the unit economics perspective.</p>\n<p>On the consumer end, the presence of many integrated features in a single app allows them to avoid the trouble of having to sign up with multiple banks under multiple accounts to enjoy the same suite of services. Currently, more than 50% of Americans use more than one bank for financial services, which presents an opportunity to value-add via the promise of greater convenience and accessibility to a whole suite of financial products.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310d5df2201205c227d7882783385f34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(More than half of Americans use more than one bank, suggesting the opportunity for consolidation. Source: SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Apart from consumer-facing products, SOFI has also expanded recently to the fintech infrastructure side of things through their acquisition of Galileo, which is apayments and financial services API platform. Galileo will likely mark the first steps into expanding towards a seller-side ecosystem focusing on connecting producers to other producers as well as their own sellers, helping SOFI to further diversify itself towards more areas of fintech to fuel user growth.</p>\n<p>While interest income is still crucial in the long term for maximizing the value per consumer, non-interest income crucially assists in hedging against poor macroeconomic headwinds that may cause a fall in net interest margin. For instance, while SOFI may not be able to charge high interest rates on its loans in a low interest rate environment, the increase in willingness to spend may lead to an increased volume of transactions on its payment network services as well as its brokerage services as cost of borrowing decreases.</p>\n<p>Other macroeconomic conditions like a global pandemic or an ageing population may lead to a decrease in risk attitudes and hence an increased willingness to save instead of borrowing to finance big-ticket purchases. However, SOFI is again able to hedge against this because risk-averse attitudes are typically correlated with an increase in demand for insurance policies, such as business continuity insurance or health insurance, on which SOFI earns a referral fee from third-party underwriters.</p>\n<p>As of 2020, SOFI's Noninterest income less loan income less only takes up 20% of overall net revenue. This may not be as significant as its loan and interest income, but it still takes up a sufficiently large portion of revenues to effectively hedge against macroeconomic headwinds.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Attitudes, Returns on Investment and Investment Quality</b></p>\n<p>Currently, SOFI targets a specific group of high earners not well served, who are individuals of ages 22+ that earn more than $100,000 annually. These individuals tend to have a relatively low default risk as their incomes are more stable, which allows them to reduce allocation to bad loans. For their student loan financing, in-school loans, personal loans and home loan segments, the weighted average origination FICO scores of their members were 770, 783, 765 and 763 respectively, which represent the higher percentile range of FICO scores.</p>\n<p>In the future, SOFI's large range of product offerings across many different consumer finance segments will act as a moat that will enable them to shoulder more risk and theoretically earn a higher net interest margin. With their suite of high-volume financial products such as investing, payment/transaction and credit card services, SOFI will be able to outline a better risk profile of their customers using data about spending habits. Since such data is more nuanced than what can be expressed in a FICO score or other credit ratings, SOFI will be able to better estimate the borrowing risk that is inherent to each consumer. This will allow them to expand their loan base and loan to more risky individuals while charging them a higher interest rate to account for risk, while reducing the extent of any potential losses incurred from bad loans.</p>\n<p>Expanding to the enterprise side of things such as through the acquisition of Galileo can further improve the datasets they already have to paint a better picture of consumer risk profiles through even more transaction data. This also opens up the opportunity to expand towards providing business loans to enterprises using data that they have about firm performance, adding yet another avenue for growth and interest income.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>SOFI's intrinsic value was found by discounting the terminal value of excess returns earned after FY25, and adding that to the book value of equity invested currently. In this case, the terminal value calculated was based on the excess returns earned above the market return and not absolute return, because the benchmark of a financial service firm's performance should be based on how much they are able to earn above the market rate. A traditional bank can be valued more accurately and simply using a Gordon growth model by projecting dividends over time, but since SOFI is neither profitable nor offering dividends, we are unable to use this method.</p>\n<p>In addition, relative ratios do not work because SOFI currently has negative earnings (invalidating P/E valuation), and has a negative tangible book value (invalidating P/TBV valuation). Other metrics like EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales used in a typical relative ratio analysis also cannot be used because enterprise value is typically not calculated for financial services firms because it is difficult to distinguish debt from customer deposits and financing debt.</p>\n<p>Below outlines the key assumptions used to value SOFI.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Assumptions</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Revenues were projected based on two main categories: interest related income as well as non-interest income. The former category refers to interest income earned on loans, securitizations, and related party notes. The latter category refers to non-interest revenue such as SOFI's technology platform, referral fees, brokerage fees, as well as loan origination and sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>SOFI has some investment assets in the form of bonds, ETFS, and others on their balance sheet. I assume that these investments earn a constant ROI of 6% in line with the market risk premium. The increase in value of these assets will allow SOFI to shoulder more debt via their warehousing facilities and use a portion of this debt raised to finance their loan offerings to consumers. This will be based on the ratio of debt to investment assets, and loan to debt.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>In FY19 and FY20, the debt to investment asset ratios were 5.41x and 7.16x respectively. From FY21 to FY25, I took the average debt to investment asset ratio at 6.29x.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>The loan to debt ratios in the same period of FY19 and FY20 were 1.15x and 1.02x respectively. From FY21 to FY25, I took the average ratio at 1.08x.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Finally, SOFI earns an interest income on these loans that varied from 7-11% in the past 3 years. Without factoring in the impact of the bank charter, I assume that the firm will be able to earn a constant interest rate of around 9% on these loans.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Non-interest income has been doubling or more for the previous few fiscal years. For the sake of conservative valuation, I will assume a decreasing growth rate of 60% in FY21 to 20% in FY25 for this segment. This will likely cause a large underestimation of revenues for the next 5 years, as segments such as Galileo will likely provide significant non-interest income for the firm.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Cost and expenses follow the FY20 percentage of revenues. This is excluding interest expense which was projected using a separate schedule and hinges on estimated financing for the next few years. Share-based compensation expense was also projected separately, using a 3-year average percentage of revenues.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Other assumptions used to balance the model are listed below:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d541fcc8ba039276af2108320fe2014\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Other DCF Assumptions. Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p><b>Terminal Value and DCF Results</b></p>\n<p>To reiterate, intrinsic equity value of the firm is contingent on the current book value of equity invested as well as the terminal value of excess returns earned, calculated using the metrics below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15aafdf761795232b9a903dc360b1991\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"117\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Ratios and Metrics used to calculate terminal value of excess returns. Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p>Stable ROE value is the average value of ROE obtained from peers as shown in the image below, since it is reasonable to assume that SOFI can earn a return on equity on par with traditional banks. The terminal beta is the current average beta of these peers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd3df2107e1e53c81faa82e17bf83b32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Peer Average ROE and Beta ratios. Source: Tikr.com)</span></p>\n<p>The results are summarized in the football field below. After varying ROE, revenue growth, cost and expenses and various ratios, the range of values obtained were 14.62 at the 25th percentile and 33.32 at the 75th percentile. At the median estimate of 21.70, there is an implied upside of around 43% from its current price, which suggests a high degree of undervaluation relative to expectations. This falls in line with current analyst estimates, and well within the 52-week trading range of the firm. The large degree of uncertainty about its intrinsic value may be some cause for concern, but seeing that SOFI's current price is not too far off from the low end of estimates, there is an asymmetric opportunity in an investment in SOFI.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d78fdbe30dd8af9e71d65fbdaf46a34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Football field for SOFI. Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p><b>Salient Risks</b></p>\n<p><b>Substitutes and New Entrants</b></p>\n<p>What differentiates SOFI from their competition is their full suite of services cutting across many sectors of fintech.</p>\n<p>It is challenging for new entrants and peers to mimic its offerings by simply expanding and acquiring new firms, because there will be significant regulatory and financial capital hurdles. Nonetheless, other firms can still opt to specialize, for example, in low-value but high-frequency financial services like payments with low barriers.</p>\n<p>However, specialization might be a threat to SOFI in the long term because the more niche firms tend to have a more nuanced focus on product strategy, so it ends up fitting their target consumer more. This will likely translate to a more loyal userbase in the future.</p>\n<p>In contrast, a diversification strategy has a focus on giving consumers more choices on a single platform, and while not necessarily mutually exclusive, may lead to a certain degree of compromise on product quality and how watertight their ecosystem will be. In other words, specialists might be able to serve their target audience better in the future.</p>\n<p>Both are valid ways gain users and to survive amidst cutthroat competition. For SOFI, the bet is essentially on consumers switching because they want the benefit of convenience, but they may not be that sticky in the long term as compared to specialist firms like PYPL or SQ that have their sights on running exclusively a payments and transaction platform. We will need to see how this plays out in the long term, but this is something worth nothing as a competitive risk.</p>\n<p><b>Outcompeted by Traditional Banks</b></p>\n<p>Even though SOFI's multi-dimensional consumer data from their suite of services can serve as a differentiating factor in the long run, the datasets are still quite small in comparison to the decades of credit card, spending, income, and loan repayment data at the hands of banks that have been running for much longer than SOFI has. This suggests the greater ability of banks to tolerate more risk than SOFI, so these banks can afford to make loans to more risky individuals and at the same time earn a higher interest income.</p>\n<p>Whether SOFI's proprietary risk model can lead to greater returns in the long term compared to the decades of transaction data in the servers of traditional banks remains quite speculative. For all the talk about their preferential ability to model risk with multi-dimensional data, datasets across time may turn out to be better predictors of risk than datasets across space, so SOFI will have to wait to gain more decades of data before they are able to expand their loan services to more risky individuals.</p>\n<p>On the same note of competition from traditional banks, there is a risk that they will be able to innovate a whole ecosystem of services like SOFI, including payments, transactions, loans and investing on a single platform. If their new app or platform becomes equally as convenient as SOFI's, then user growth on the part of SOFI may be impacting, which may impede their path towards profitability.</p>\n<p>In developed Asian markets, digital banking is now almost universal, with pandemic trends further accelerating the push towards digital banking infrastructure. While digital banks in other geographies are mostly startups like SOFI, digital banking in Asia ismostly driven by incumbent playerswho have innovated sufficiently to keep up with digitalizing trends. This suggests the possibility of incumbent banks to also innovate similarly, and cause SOFI's offerings to appear less appealing by comparison.</p>\n<p><b>Bank Charter Risk</b></p>\n<p>Earlier on, I argued that even without the national bank charter, SOFI's integrated ecosystem will still allow them to enjoy excellent unit economics and grow their consumer base while expanding the lifetime value of their consumers. However, the failure to secure the bank charter might cause their outlook to turn pessimistic, and result in poor price performance in the short term. Their failure to secure a bank charter will also suggest the increased likelihood of continued dominance by large banking institutions, which may cause an outflow in investment capital away from fintech.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Despite the risks at hand, there are also many opportunities that can help to catalyze upward price action. For one, SOFI may turn profitable in the coming quarters, which can make it salient to investors that they actually have a sustainable business model, and is further proof of their excellent unit economics. In their recent Q1'21 presentation, SOFI reiterated their guidance of 3% adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of the year, making this scenario even more likely to occur. SOFI securing a national bank charter will almost certainly improve their outlook for the future, as it validates their positioning as a future-oriented banking institution.</p>\n<p>While many factors such as their ability to secure the bank charter, their ability to outcompete traditional banks and fintech players, and ability to shoulder more risk in the future still remain uncertain, their excellent strategic positioning gives me confidence that it will occur. With their current undervaluation and stellar fundamentals, there is a clear asymmetric opportunity in an investment in SOFI.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Technologies: A Next Generation Banking Disruptor</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Technologies: A Next Generation Banking Disruptor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 17:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441446-sofi-technologies-a-banking-disruptor><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSOFI started off as a simple provider of loans, and has since expanded its offerings to encompass a large array of services that make for a compelling fintech ecosystem.\nAgainst traditional ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441446-sofi-technologies-a-banking-disruptor\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441446-sofi-technologies-a-banking-disruptor","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139811761","content_text":"Summary\n\nSOFI started off as a simple provider of loans, and has since expanded its offerings to encompass a large array of services that make for a compelling fintech ecosystem.\nAgainst traditional banks and fintech players, SOFI has a competitive advantage, as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.\nWhen valued as a traditional bank, SOFI checks off all the boxes for a compelling business, with a strategy that will likely lead to stellar metrics in the long run.\nSOFI can also be seen as undervalued relative to expectations, which suggests the strong likelihood of upside even at this price.\nWhile there might be salient risks in an investment in this newly-IPOed company, its strategic positioning and strong fundamentals give investors confidence that they will be able to outperform in the long run.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSoFI(NASDAQ:SOFI)represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry. They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector - from personal loans, home loans, and even to insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.\nUnsurprisingly, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience. Q1'21 was their best showing yet, with a year-on-year increase of over 110% in members, as well a 121% y/y increase in the number of products sold.\n(Accelerating User Growth. Source:SoFI Q1'21 Investors Presentation)\n(Accelerating Product Growth. Source: SoFI Q1'21 Investors Presentation)\nCrucially, SOFI's integrated platform differentiates them from traditional banking peers as well as new age fintech players. From the angle of a traditional bank, SOFI appears to check-off all the boxes for a compelling business, which gives investors confidence that they are operating a model that is sustainable in the long-run.\nCompetitive Advantage\nTypically, there are a few metrics to look at when evaluating traditional banks. These include, customer acquisition costs, lifetime value of consumers, interest and non-interest income, as well as investment quality. From each of these angles, SOFI appears poised to outcompete peers, be it from traditional banking or from other fintech players.\nLow Customer Acquisition Costs But High Lifetime Value of Consumers\nCritically, banks seek revenue growth through two means: increasing the number of customers that they have, and increasing the value they are able to derive from each of their customers through selling them different financial products. This is akin to a traditional consumer electronics firm like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), where their goal is to get more people to buy their products, and increase their bargaining power against consumers to get them to spend more on products.\nHere, SOFI has an advantage over other banks and other fintech firms because of its horizontal diversification to different aspects of consumer finance and to traditional lending as well.\n(SoFi has a large range of products that is constantly expanding. Source:SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation.)\nAs part of its strategy, SOFI intends on building a full suite of consumer finance as well as banking services to each of its individuals on a single platform. Currently, they offer a range of products from high-frequency, high-volume but low-value financial services such as SoFi Money, Relay and Invest, to low-frequency, low-volume but high-value financial services such as Home Loans, In-School Loans as well as Personal loans. The former category relies on taking a small cut on a large volume of small transactions, while the latter category monetizes from large interest payments from a large capital base. These happen to cut across many categories of fintech as shown in the fintech map provided by Business Insider:\n(The fintech ecosystem and some players within it. Source:Business Insider)\nAgainst fintech firms that primarily monetize on the former category such as payment processors like PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), peer-to-peer lending apps like Cash App from Square(NYSE:SQ)and brokerages like Robinhood (HOOD), SOFI is able to differentiate sufficiently using the latter category of financial services. This is because high-frequency financial services typically have lower margins and rely on the increase in volume and size of transactions as well as growth of their userbase to sustain revenue growth. With high-value loans earning high interest income, SOFI is able to theoretically derive more revenue per customer in the long run, without the need for as high of a userbase growth. SOFI certainly is aiming for high user growth as well, but the point here is that there is an additional lever for SOFI to pull in pursuing revenue growth - preferentially selling users high-value products already in its ecosystem - which reduces the need to devote significant resources to marketing strategies to fuel growth.\nAgainst traditional banks, SOFI differentiates itself using its low-cost consumer acquisition strategy, enabled through cross-buy opportunities. Instead of directly pursuing user growth with the proposition of selling them high-value financial services, SOFI eases consumers into the ecosystem by giving them free access to low-value but high-frequency products. From that point, it is easier to rope consumers into the higher-value financial services since it is simply getting them to press a few buttons with an account they already have.\nAccording to SOFI's official pitch deck for their PIPE presentation, the combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. Since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that cross-buys into high-value loans now increases by 180% compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means.\n(SoFi's Cross-buy opportunities. Source: SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation.)\nHigher margins will directly translate into the greater ability to reinvest in diversifying their products further or to expand internationally, both of which can help feed into further growth in the future.\nIn a nutshell, SOFI's unique business model that ties in multiple aspects of fintech helps them to achieve impressive unit economics but at the same time high lifetime value per consumer, through low customer acquisition costs and opportunities for cross-buy. These two factors together will serve to differentiate SOFI from both the burgeoning fintech sector as well as traditional banks.\nFuture Interest and Loan Income\nFor SOFI's lending and cash management products, they primarily earn through a gain-on-sale model where they repackage loans made to customer and sell these loans to other large financial institutions or securitization channels. For loans still on their balance sheet, SOFI also earns an interest income on these loans.\nHowever, unlike a traditional bank, SOFI is currently unable to use the deposits made by SoFi Money Members to fund its loans because it does not have a national bank charter. Instead, SOFI relies almost entirely on warehouse financing facilities to originate loans and sell them to customers. This involves borrowing from large financial institutions, since a warehouse facility is essentially a large line of credit that they extend to SOFI for the purpose of loaning.\nFor SOFI Money, the interest income they are able to earn on their member's deposits is also constrained because of the middleman that they rely on to provide cash management facilities in lieu of SOFI's inability to function as a bank holding company.\nWhile banks significantly increasing their interest and loan income in the future may not be a sure thing, SOFI will easily be able to secure a higher return on their loans as well as a higher interest income by securing a national bank charter. For one, the bank charter will allow them to use the money that its members deposit with them to fund their loans and therefore use their capital resources more efficiently without relying on a third party for financing options. Alternatively, when combined with existing warehousing facilities, having access to a pool of deposit money will allow SOFI to grow their loan base and therefore increase interest income levels at a higher rate. Cutting out the middleman will allow them to save on premiums paid for these intermediary warehousing or cash management services and therefore earn a greater net interest margin.\nIn October last year, the OCC already issued a preliminary conditional approval of their application to be chartered as a de novo national bank.\nAs an alternative route to securing a national bank charter,SOFI also entered an agreementto acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp. Their preliminary conditional approval to be chartered as a de novo national bank in October last year may help them to hasten the process of approval for the acquisition and increase the odds of approval, but we will have to see the results in November this year.\nWhile there is an inherent risk of SOFI not being able to secure this bank charter, the risk/reward balance is asymmetrical because the tailwinds form being able to secure this charter greatly outweighs the downside from failing to do so. In the former case, revenues will begin to skyrocket, but in the latter case, SOFI's cross-buy strategy will still allow them to return better unit economics than most peers, and still grow albeit at a slower than expected pace.\nValue-adding via Noninterest, Non-loan income\nTheir ability to generate non-interest income is a differentiating factor from many traditional banks from the value-add perspective, not just from the unit economics perspective.\nOn the consumer end, the presence of many integrated features in a single app allows them to avoid the trouble of having to sign up with multiple banks under multiple accounts to enjoy the same suite of services. Currently, more than 50% of Americans use more than one bank for financial services, which presents an opportunity to value-add via the promise of greater convenience and accessibility to a whole suite of financial products.\n(More than half of Americans use more than one bank, suggesting the opportunity for consolidation. Source: SoFi 2021 Investors Presentation)\nApart from consumer-facing products, SOFI has also expanded recently to the fintech infrastructure side of things through their acquisition of Galileo, which is apayments and financial services API platform. Galileo will likely mark the first steps into expanding towards a seller-side ecosystem focusing on connecting producers to other producers as well as their own sellers, helping SOFI to further diversify itself towards more areas of fintech to fuel user growth.\nWhile interest income is still crucial in the long term for maximizing the value per consumer, non-interest income crucially assists in hedging against poor macroeconomic headwinds that may cause a fall in net interest margin. For instance, while SOFI may not be able to charge high interest rates on its loans in a low interest rate environment, the increase in willingness to spend may lead to an increased volume of transactions on its payment network services as well as its brokerage services as cost of borrowing decreases.\nOther macroeconomic conditions like a global pandemic or an ageing population may lead to a decrease in risk attitudes and hence an increased willingness to save instead of borrowing to finance big-ticket purchases. However, SOFI is again able to hedge against this because risk-averse attitudes are typically correlated with an increase in demand for insurance policies, such as business continuity insurance or health insurance, on which SOFI earns a referral fee from third-party underwriters.\nAs of 2020, SOFI's Noninterest income less loan income less only takes up 20% of overall net revenue. This may not be as significant as its loan and interest income, but it still takes up a sufficiently large portion of revenues to effectively hedge against macroeconomic headwinds.\nRisk Attitudes, Returns on Investment and Investment Quality\nCurrently, SOFI targets a specific group of high earners not well served, who are individuals of ages 22+ that earn more than $100,000 annually. These individuals tend to have a relatively low default risk as their incomes are more stable, which allows them to reduce allocation to bad loans. For their student loan financing, in-school loans, personal loans and home loan segments, the weighted average origination FICO scores of their members were 770, 783, 765 and 763 respectively, which represent the higher percentile range of FICO scores.\nIn the future, SOFI's large range of product offerings across many different consumer finance segments will act as a moat that will enable them to shoulder more risk and theoretically earn a higher net interest margin. With their suite of high-volume financial products such as investing, payment/transaction and credit card services, SOFI will be able to outline a better risk profile of their customers using data about spending habits. Since such data is more nuanced than what can be expressed in a FICO score or other credit ratings, SOFI will be able to better estimate the borrowing risk that is inherent to each consumer. This will allow them to expand their loan base and loan to more risky individuals while charging them a higher interest rate to account for risk, while reducing the extent of any potential losses incurred from bad loans.\nExpanding to the enterprise side of things such as through the acquisition of Galileo can further improve the datasets they already have to paint a better picture of consumer risk profiles through even more transaction data. This also opens up the opportunity to expand towards providing business loans to enterprises using data that they have about firm performance, adding yet another avenue for growth and interest income.\nValuation\nSOFI's intrinsic value was found by discounting the terminal value of excess returns earned after FY25, and adding that to the book value of equity invested currently. In this case, the terminal value calculated was based on the excess returns earned above the market return and not absolute return, because the benchmark of a financial service firm's performance should be based on how much they are able to earn above the market rate. A traditional bank can be valued more accurately and simply using a Gordon growth model by projecting dividends over time, but since SOFI is neither profitable nor offering dividends, we are unable to use this method.\nIn addition, relative ratios do not work because SOFI currently has negative earnings (invalidating P/E valuation), and has a negative tangible book value (invalidating P/TBV valuation). Other metrics like EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales used in a typical relative ratio analysis also cannot be used because enterprise value is typically not calculated for financial services firms because it is difficult to distinguish debt from customer deposits and financing debt.\nBelow outlines the key assumptions used to value SOFI.\nValuation Assumptions\n\nRevenues were projected based on two main categories: interest related income as well as non-interest income. The former category refers to interest income earned on loans, securitizations, and related party notes. The latter category refers to non-interest revenue such as SOFI's technology platform, referral fees, brokerage fees, as well as loan origination and sales.\n\n\nSOFI has some investment assets in the form of bonds, ETFS, and others on their balance sheet. I assume that these investments earn a constant ROI of 6% in line with the market risk premium. The increase in value of these assets will allow SOFI to shoulder more debt via their warehousing facilities and use a portion of this debt raised to finance their loan offerings to consumers. This will be based on the ratio of debt to investment assets, and loan to debt.\n\n\nIn FY19 and FY20, the debt to investment asset ratios were 5.41x and 7.16x respectively. From FY21 to FY25, I took the average debt to investment asset ratio at 6.29x.\n\n\nThe loan to debt ratios in the same period of FY19 and FY20 were 1.15x and 1.02x respectively. From FY21 to FY25, I took the average ratio at 1.08x.\n\n\nFinally, SOFI earns an interest income on these loans that varied from 7-11% in the past 3 years. Without factoring in the impact of the bank charter, I assume that the firm will be able to earn a constant interest rate of around 9% on these loans.\n\n\nNon-interest income has been doubling or more for the previous few fiscal years. For the sake of conservative valuation, I will assume a decreasing growth rate of 60% in FY21 to 20% in FY25 for this segment. This will likely cause a large underestimation of revenues for the next 5 years, as segments such as Galileo will likely provide significant non-interest income for the firm.\n\n\nCost and expenses follow the FY20 percentage of revenues. This is excluding interest expense which was projected using a separate schedule and hinges on estimated financing for the next few years. Share-based compensation expense was also projected separately, using a 3-year average percentage of revenues.\n\nOther assumptions used to balance the model are listed below:\n(Other DCF Assumptions. Source: Author)\nTerminal Value and DCF Results\nTo reiterate, intrinsic equity value of the firm is contingent on the current book value of equity invested as well as the terminal value of excess returns earned, calculated using the metrics below.\n(Ratios and Metrics used to calculate terminal value of excess returns. Source: Author)\nStable ROE value is the average value of ROE obtained from peers as shown in the image below, since it is reasonable to assume that SOFI can earn a return on equity on par with traditional banks. The terminal beta is the current average beta of these peers.\n(Peer Average ROE and Beta ratios. Source: Tikr.com)\nThe results are summarized in the football field below. After varying ROE, revenue growth, cost and expenses and various ratios, the range of values obtained were 14.62 at the 25th percentile and 33.32 at the 75th percentile. At the median estimate of 21.70, there is an implied upside of around 43% from its current price, which suggests a high degree of undervaluation relative to expectations. This falls in line with current analyst estimates, and well within the 52-week trading range of the firm. The large degree of uncertainty about its intrinsic value may be some cause for concern, but seeing that SOFI's current price is not too far off from the low end of estimates, there is an asymmetric opportunity in an investment in SOFI.\n(Football field for SOFI. Source: Author)\nSalient Risks\nSubstitutes and New Entrants\nWhat differentiates SOFI from their competition is their full suite of services cutting across many sectors of fintech.\nIt is challenging for new entrants and peers to mimic its offerings by simply expanding and acquiring new firms, because there will be significant regulatory and financial capital hurdles. Nonetheless, other firms can still opt to specialize, for example, in low-value but high-frequency financial services like payments with low barriers.\nHowever, specialization might be a threat to SOFI in the long term because the more niche firms tend to have a more nuanced focus on product strategy, so it ends up fitting their target consumer more. This will likely translate to a more loyal userbase in the future.\nIn contrast, a diversification strategy has a focus on giving consumers more choices on a single platform, and while not necessarily mutually exclusive, may lead to a certain degree of compromise on product quality and how watertight their ecosystem will be. In other words, specialists might be able to serve their target audience better in the future.\nBoth are valid ways gain users and to survive amidst cutthroat competition. For SOFI, the bet is essentially on consumers switching because they want the benefit of convenience, but they may not be that sticky in the long term as compared to specialist firms like PYPL or SQ that have their sights on running exclusively a payments and transaction platform. We will need to see how this plays out in the long term, but this is something worth nothing as a competitive risk.\nOutcompeted by Traditional Banks\nEven though SOFI's multi-dimensional consumer data from their suite of services can serve as a differentiating factor in the long run, the datasets are still quite small in comparison to the decades of credit card, spending, income, and loan repayment data at the hands of banks that have been running for much longer than SOFI has. This suggests the greater ability of banks to tolerate more risk than SOFI, so these banks can afford to make loans to more risky individuals and at the same time earn a higher interest income.\nWhether SOFI's proprietary risk model can lead to greater returns in the long term compared to the decades of transaction data in the servers of traditional banks remains quite speculative. For all the talk about their preferential ability to model risk with multi-dimensional data, datasets across time may turn out to be better predictors of risk than datasets across space, so SOFI will have to wait to gain more decades of data before they are able to expand their loan services to more risky individuals.\nOn the same note of competition from traditional banks, there is a risk that they will be able to innovate a whole ecosystem of services like SOFI, including payments, transactions, loans and investing on a single platform. If their new app or platform becomes equally as convenient as SOFI's, then user growth on the part of SOFI may be impacting, which may impede their path towards profitability.\nIn developed Asian markets, digital banking is now almost universal, with pandemic trends further accelerating the push towards digital banking infrastructure. While digital banks in other geographies are mostly startups like SOFI, digital banking in Asia ismostly driven by incumbent playerswho have innovated sufficiently to keep up with digitalizing trends. This suggests the possibility of incumbent banks to also innovate similarly, and cause SOFI's offerings to appear less appealing by comparison.\nBank Charter Risk\nEarlier on, I argued that even without the national bank charter, SOFI's integrated ecosystem will still allow them to enjoy excellent unit economics and grow their consumer base while expanding the lifetime value of their consumers. However, the failure to secure the bank charter might cause their outlook to turn pessimistic, and result in poor price performance in the short term. Their failure to secure a bank charter will also suggest the increased likelihood of continued dominance by large banking institutions, which may cause an outflow in investment capital away from fintech.\nConclusion\nDespite the risks at hand, there are also many opportunities that can help to catalyze upward price action. For one, SOFI may turn profitable in the coming quarters, which can make it salient to investors that they actually have a sustainable business model, and is further proof of their excellent unit economics. In their recent Q1'21 presentation, SOFI reiterated their guidance of 3% adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of the year, making this scenario even more likely to occur. SOFI securing a national bank charter will almost certainly improve their outlook for the future, as it validates their positioning as a future-oriented banking institution.\nWhile many factors such as their ability to secure the bank charter, their ability to outcompete traditional banks and fintech players, and ability to shoulder more risk in the future still remain uncertain, their excellent strategic positioning gives me confidence that it will occur. With their current undervaluation and stellar fundamentals, there is a clear asymmetric opportunity in an investment in SOFI.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809741623,"gmtCreate":1627394461262,"gmtModify":1703489090676,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Airbnb ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Airbnb ???","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$Airbnb ???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02a3d4440f9f30fc122b4c6db554873","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809741623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809757511,"gmtCreate":1627394318333,"gmtModify":1703489084416,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809757511","repostId":"1138487254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138487254?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"<p>How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.</p>\n<p>Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.</p>\n<p>A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.</p>\n<p><b>Here’s the catch</b></p>\n<p>Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.</p>\n<p>For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.</p>\n<p>So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).</p>\n<p>Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li>\n <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li>\n <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.</p>\n<p>In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.</p>\n<p>The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 21:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":813431647,"gmtCreate":1630227124689,"gmtModify":1676530247446,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>???","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9fd8ee2deeeedd427a43aeb2c33884","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813431647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831848012,"gmtCreate":1629303549236,"gmtModify":1676529998651,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>???","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b8bd4e82518f96c78b531466b3cf05","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831848012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809742953,"gmtCreate":1627394548672,"gmtModify":1703489094452,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Collect before fly&nbsp;","listText":"Collect before fly&nbsp;","text":"Collect before fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809742953","repostId":"1139811761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809757511,"gmtCreate":1627394318333,"gmtModify":1703489084416,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809757511","repostId":"1138487254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138487254?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"<p>How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.</p>\n<p>Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.</p>\n<p>A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.</p>\n<p><b>Here’s the catch</b></p>\n<p>Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.</p>\n<p>For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.</p>\n<p>So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).</p>\n<p>Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li>\n <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li>\n <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.</p>\n<p>In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.</p>\n<p>The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 21:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809741623,"gmtCreate":1627394461262,"gmtModify":1703489090676,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Airbnb ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Airbnb ???","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$Airbnb ???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02a3d4440f9f30fc122b4c6db554873","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809741623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970962897,"gmtCreate":1683825584219,"gmtModify":1683825588446,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962897","repostId":"9970934603","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970934603,"gmtCreate":1683803111603,"gmtModify":1683804038936,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"With April CPI at 4.9%, Microsoft Time To Shine ?","htmlText":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970092160\" target=\"_blank\">click to read my post!</a> and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&amp;P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","listText":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970092160\" target=\"_blank\">click to read my post!</a> and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&amp;P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","text":"On Wed, 10 May 2023 evening I was keeping virgil by my mobile phone, like everyone else. Just so that when the news of US April CPI is out, I would know “immediately”. When the news flashed across my mobile screen, I heaved a sigh of “relief”. CPI was “4.9%”, 0.01% “higher” than my personal forecast (click to read my post! and give a “LIKe” ok, tks!). It was a “memorable” moment because this is the first time in two years that US’s CPI comes in “sub 5%”. Deserves a celebration, no? Strangely enough, the market did not rally as I had hoped it would. By the time market closed: DJIA was down -30.48 (-0.09%) to 33,531.33. S&P 500 was the only index upped marginally +18.47 (+0.45%) to 4,137.64). Best performer. Nasdaq was","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b00acc0adb15271d8e2f4ed5539516fe","width":"1047","height":"248"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5f8228484b5ad0fe869f776033934056","width":"540","height":"57"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/862132aea9f4b4dfb1b5d90971426c95","width":"1140","height":"259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970934603","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970962931,"gmtCreate":1683825524524,"gmtModify":1683825528000,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962931","repostId":"9970085751","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970085751,"gmtCreate":1683721928474,"gmtModify":1683725352856,"author":{"id":"3581636635898281","authorId":"3581636635898281","name":"pekss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dfef98c44b3810cffef7f3eb78524ba","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636635898281","authorIdStr":"3581636635898281"},"themes":[],"title":"Will Disney roar like Winnie the Pooh after its earnings?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and aggressive <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and aggressive <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon</a>","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ will be announcing its previous quarter results after the market closes today. With the reopening of global economies and international borders, Disney may count on the return of visitors by flocks to its theme parks, though at the same time users of its Disney+ streaming platform will also be pampered with increasingly more outdoor entertainment alternatives as COVID-19 restrictions get lifted, leading to earnings pressure on its streaming platform. Furthermore, Disney+ continues to face intense and rising competition from the likes of the incumbent $Netflix(NFLX)$ and aggressive $Amazon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970085751","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970962018,"gmtCreate":1683825510534,"gmtModify":1683825514394,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970962018","repostId":"9970061739","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970061739,"gmtCreate":1683725454521,"gmtModify":1683863297556,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"Bet on Growth Stocks? Learn about Straddle Strategy!","htmlText":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> shares dropped as much as 20%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a> dropped 17%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a> surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","listText":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> shares dropped as much as 20%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a> dropped 17%; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a> surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","text":"Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ shares dropped as much as 20%; $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ dropped 17%; $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40e3e115eaeb155afaaddc9c0e411a43","width":"505","height":"428"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62fa386ed43222f9c3a5c7626faf1f96","width":"1080","height":"2338"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0216ec284b7d390340a9041fe77b2f4d","width":"2044","height":"1448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970061739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813431351,"gmtCreate":1630227082673,"gmtModify":1676530247437,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586737269713101","authorIdStr":"3586737269713101"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813431351","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1703499292702,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace.Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 11% an","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent resultsRevenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter.Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year.Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. 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