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Re-Evaluating Twitter After Massive Elon Musk Buy-In
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2022-04-05
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Despite a large increase in the valuation of Twitter, I believe the firm's commercial growth is still cheap and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/5/saupload_2df5cd4e9dcbe76f0e948a2631ccc59c.png\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><h2><b>Previous position on Twitter</b></h2><p>Months ago, I presented Twitter as a potential investment due to the firm's undervalued ad business, strong user growth and significant free cash flow generation of the platform. While Twitter may be a controversial investment for some, I do not take political sides and have been focused solely on the firm's strong platform metrics, especially with respect to average monetizable daily active usage.</p><p>Twitter's mDAUs soared to 217M in Q4'21 with growth especially pronounced in the platform's international business. International mDAUs surged 24M in Q4'21, year over year, to a record of 179M. In percentage terms, the international business grew at a 15% year over year rate. While growth is much more modest in the U.S., Twitter is still growing in its domestic market: the micro-blogging platform added 1M new mDAUs to its business in the last quarter, which calculates to a 2% year over year growth rate.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/53926820_16491397057597_rId4.png\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Twitter</p><p></p><h2><b>Elon Musk's investment in Twitter is a potential game-changer for the micro-blogging platform</b></h2><p>It was revealed yesterday that Elon Musk acquired a 9.2% stake in Twitter, sending shares of the platform soaring more than 27%. The Tesla chief acquired 73,486,938 shares in the social media company on March 14. The purchase immediately made Elon Musk the single largest shareholder of Twitter and raised speculation as to how "passive" the out-spoken billionaire is going to be. While Elon Musk's ultimate ambition regarding Twitter is not known, the market has been electrified by the acquisition, which could translate to additional valuation gains. Twitter has often been criticized for violating principles of free speech and a more activist role of Elon Musk could result in some positive change on Twitter's platform.</p><h2><b>Significant free cash flow value</b></h2><p>The acquisition of a 9.2% stake in Twitter has been a strong catalyst for shares of Twitter so far, but the real value of the social media company is its large user base and potential for material advertising revenue and free cash flow growth in the coming years. Twitter's free cash flow margins decreased in FY 2021, but this is chiefly due to higher capital expenditures and a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time litigation-related net charge of $766M in the third-quarter. If it wasn't for the settlement of a shareholder class action lawsuit, Twitter's free cash flow would have been positive in FY 2021.</p><p>Twitter's ad business shows a lot of promise as well. The ad business recovered strongly in FY 2021 and total advertising revenues surged 40% year over year to $4.5B. Twitter's ad revenues in the fourth-quarter soared 22% year over year to $1.41B.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/53926820_16491397057597_rId5.png\" tg-width=\"467\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Twitter</p><p></p><p>I believe Twitter could generate up to $600M in free cash flow in FY 2022 which would calculate to a free cash flow margin of around 10%. Because Twitter already settled its shareholder class action lawsuit in FY 2021, the firm's free cash flow margins are set to turn positive again in FY 2022.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>$ in 000's</p></td><td><p><b>FY 2018</b></p></td><td><p><b>FY 2019</b></p></td><td><p><b>FY 2020</b></p></td><td><p><b>FY 2021</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Revenues</p></td><td><p>$3,042,359</p></td><td><p>$3,459,329</p></td><td><p>$3,716,349</p></td><td><p>$5,077,482</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Cash Flow From Operating Activities</p></td><td><p>$1,339,711</p></td><td><p>$1,303,364</p></td><td><p>$992,870</p></td><td><p>$632,689</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Purchases of PPE</p></td><td><p>-$486,950</p></td><td><p>-$534,530</p></td><td><p>-$864,184</p></td><td><p>-$1,003,084</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free Cash Flow</p></td><td><p>$852,761</p></td><td><p>$768,834</p></td><td><p>$128,686</p></td><td><p>-$370,395</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free Cash Flow Margin</p></td><td><p>28.0%</p></td><td><p>22.2%</p></td><td><p>3.5%</p></td><td><p>-7.3%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Author)</p><h2><b>Risks with Twitter</b></h2><p>There are a couple of risks that affect an investment in Twitter. The social media company is growing its user and revenue bases, but there is a risk of new messaging platforms popping up and stealing away users. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> (FB) reported its first-ever DAU decline last quarter and the stock reacted sensitively to this announcement. Should Twitter also start to lose users to other platforms, shares of Twitter may be up for a major revaluation.</p><p>Another risk I see is slowing platform revenue and free cash flow growth. Twitter's revenues soared 22% in the last quarter to $1.57B, but if revenue growth slowed, Twitter's valuation could come under increasing pressure.</p><h2><b>Final thoughts</b></h2><p>Elon Musk's engagement with Twitter is a potentially big deal for investors if he turned activist or increased his investment in the social media company.. which I believe is not out of the question. While Tesla's founder has said that he sees his stake in the micro-blogging platform as a passive investment, it won't take much for him to get more actively involved in Twitter's business. Besides Elon Musk's investment, the best reasons to buy Twitter are possibly the firm's strongly growing ad business as well as the firm's material free cash flow ramp that I expect for FY 2022!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Re-Evaluating Twitter After Massive Elon Musk Buy-In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRe-Evaluating Twitter After Massive Elon Musk Buy-In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-05 17:03 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499792-reevaluating-twitter-after-elon-musk-buy-in><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>peepo/E+ via Getty ImagesShares of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) are back in play after billionaire and Tesla founder Elon Musk disclosed a massive 9.2% stake in the micro-blogging platform yesterday. Despite a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499792-reevaluating-twitter-after-elon-musk-buy-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499792-reevaluating-twitter-after-elon-musk-buy-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2225585478","content_text":"peepo/E+ via Getty ImagesShares of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) are back in play after billionaire and Tesla founder Elon Musk disclosed a massive 9.2% stake in the micro-blogging platform yesterday. Despite a large increase in the valuation of Twitter, I believe the firm's commercial growth is still cheap and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside.Data by YChartsPrevious position on TwitterMonths ago, I presented Twitter as a potential investment due to the firm's undervalued ad business, strong user growth and significant free cash flow generation of the platform. While Twitter may be a controversial investment for some, I do not take political sides and have been focused solely on the firm's strong platform metrics, especially with respect to average monetizable daily active usage.Twitter's mDAUs soared to 217M in Q4'21 with growth especially pronounced in the platform's international business. International mDAUs surged 24M in Q4'21, year over year, to a record of 179M. In percentage terms, the international business grew at a 15% year over year rate. While growth is much more modest in the U.S., Twitter is still growing in its domestic market: the micro-blogging platform added 1M new mDAUs to its business in the last quarter, which calculates to a 2% year over year growth rate.TwitterElon Musk's investment in Twitter is a potential game-changer for the micro-blogging platformIt was revealed yesterday that Elon Musk acquired a 9.2% stake in Twitter, sending shares of the platform soaring more than 27%. The Tesla chief acquired 73,486,938 shares in the social media company on March 14. The purchase immediately made Elon Musk the single largest shareholder of Twitter and raised speculation as to how \"passive\" the out-spoken billionaire is going to be. While Elon Musk's ultimate ambition regarding Twitter is not known, the market has been electrified by the acquisition, which could translate to additional valuation gains. Twitter has often been criticized for violating principles of free speech and a more activist role of Elon Musk could result in some positive change on Twitter's platform.Significant free cash flow valueThe acquisition of a 9.2% stake in Twitter has been a strong catalyst for shares of Twitter so far, but the real value of the social media company is its large user base and potential for material advertising revenue and free cash flow growth in the coming years. Twitter's free cash flow margins decreased in FY 2021, but this is chiefly due to higher capital expenditures and a one-time litigation-related net charge of $766M in the third-quarter. If it wasn't for the settlement of a shareholder class action lawsuit, Twitter's free cash flow would have been positive in FY 2021.Twitter's ad business shows a lot of promise as well. The ad business recovered strongly in FY 2021 and total advertising revenues surged 40% year over year to $4.5B. Twitter's ad revenues in the fourth-quarter soared 22% year over year to $1.41B.TwitterI believe Twitter could generate up to $600M in free cash flow in FY 2022 which would calculate to a free cash flow margin of around 10%. Because Twitter already settled its shareholder class action lawsuit in FY 2021, the firm's free cash flow margins are set to turn positive again in FY 2022.$ in 000'sFY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021Revenues$3,042,359$3,459,329$3,716,349$5,077,482Cash Flow From Operating Activities$1,339,711$1,303,364$992,870$632,689Purchases of PPE-$486,950-$534,530-$864,184-$1,003,084Free Cash Flow$852,761$768,834$128,686-$370,395Free Cash Flow Margin28.0%22.2%3.5%-7.3%(Source: Author)Risks with TwitterThere are a couple of risks that affect an investment in Twitter. The social media company is growing its user and revenue bases, but there is a risk of new messaging platforms popping up and stealing away users. Meta Platforms (FB) reported its first-ever DAU decline last quarter and the stock reacted sensitively to this announcement. Should Twitter also start to lose users to other platforms, shares of Twitter may be up for a major revaluation.Another risk I see is slowing platform revenue and free cash flow growth. Twitter's revenues soared 22% in the last quarter to $1.57B, but if revenue growth slowed, Twitter's valuation could come under increasing pressure.Final thoughtsElon Musk's engagement with Twitter is a potentially big deal for investors if he turned activist or increased his investment in the social media company.. which I believe is not out of the question. While Tesla's founder has said that he sees his stake in the micro-blogging platform as a passive investment, it won't take much for him to get more actively involved in Twitter's business. Besides Elon Musk's investment, the best reasons to buy Twitter are possibly the firm's strongly growing ad business as well as the firm's material free cash flow ramp that I expect for FY 2022!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018786189,"gmtCreate":1649089444091,"gmtModify":1676534448982,"author":{"id":"3586819315417492","authorId":"3586819315417492","authorIdStr":"3586819315417492","name":"LLx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4246ec96ec88d0a42199827d0a760866","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586819315417492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SHOP\">$Shopify(SHOP)$</a>Good time to enter? ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SHOP\">$Shopify(SHOP)$</a>Good time to enter? ","text":"$Shopify(SHOP)$Good time to enter?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018786189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586838763252303","authorId":"3586838763252303","authorIdStr":"3586838763252303","name":"Joseph80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/120ecf10eddaf87018757652ced2a2b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586838763252303"},"content":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low.","text":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low.","html":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9018786189,"gmtCreate":1649089444091,"gmtModify":1676534448982,"author":{"id":"3586819315417492","authorId":"3586819315417492","authorIdStr":"3586819315417492","name":"LLx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4246ec96ec88d0a42199827d0a760866","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586819315417492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SHOP\">$Shopify(SHOP)$</a>Good time to enter? ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SHOP\">$Shopify(SHOP)$</a>Good time to enter? ","text":"$Shopify(SHOP)$Good time to enter?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018786189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586838763252303","authorId":"3586838763252303","authorIdStr":"3586838763252303","name":"Joseph80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/120ecf10eddaf87018757652ced2a2b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586838763252303"},"content":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low.","text":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low.","html":"If you are holding for long term then its worthwhile to buy since it is trading near its 52weeks low."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016619852,"gmtCreate":1649177694320,"gmtModify":1676534464251,"author":{"id":"3586819315417492","authorId":"3586819315417492","authorIdStr":"3586819315417492","name":"LLx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4246ec96ec88d0a42199827d0a760866","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586819315417492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016619852","repostId":"2225585478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
