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投资小新手
2021-06-28
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投资小新手
2021-06-17
Great
Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023
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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623883569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144713861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144713861","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 16 - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.The Fed cited an impr","content":"<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 06:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713861","content_text":"June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.\nNew projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.\nThe Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.\n\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.\nWith inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.\nThe Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.\n\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.\nOnly two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.\nThe decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":127270371,"gmtCreate":1624853695393,"gmtModify":1703846258750,"author":{"id":"3586982400040028","authorId":"3586982400040028","name":"投资小新手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5684c5d32277666acac57f03b1a5e71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586982400040028","authorIdStr":"3586982400040028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127270371","repostId":"1174566320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174566320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174566320?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从美股到中房，泡沫什么时候会破？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174566320","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价","content":"<p>这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。</p>\n<p>下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：</p>\n<p>如果从实时指数价格来看，自美国参加第二次世界大战以来，除了经历过几次最深约50%的调整之外，美股经历了整整80年的长期牛市；</p>\n<p>从经通货膨胀调整的指数价格来看，美国的牛市则是从1982年年中开始启动，迄今为止，整体上在接近40年时间持续上涨——期间仅经历过1987年股灾、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情来袭，也就是说，美股差不多要涨10年才会经历一次像样的调整。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c6913fd0576f293a7c91a7cff442b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>自2017年开始，因为美股价格屡创新高，特别是从用于判断过去150年美股的高低点都极为准确的周期市盈率估值（CAPE，也称为Shiller PE）来看，美股的估值之贵，仅次于2000年的科技股泡沫期间，高于1929年的股市泡沫期……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16577af008708667790865ac954a024\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不仅如此，即便用所谓的“巴菲特指标”来看，美股也是贵得离谱：一般认为，美股总市值/GDP应该在70-100%为合理估值，超过120%即为高估，从2017年开始，巴菲特指标就已经超过130%并持续保持。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79280cb5512f0a8d15fb0895b452178\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美股一直坚挺，直到2020年新冠疫情，才经历了一次比较深度的调整——但这次的调整比1987年的股灾时间（调整了4个月时间）还要短得多，在3月份一个月之内跌到最低点，然后迅速实现了V型反转，一直涨到今天……</p>\n<p>到了今天，美股的周期市盈率已经高达38，而巴菲特指标更是突破200%的天际。</p>\n<p>为什么现在的美股能够这么贵，而且还能保持不跌？</p>\n<p>因为——</p>\n<p><b>市盈率是看过去的指标，而美股的价格却是看未来的预期。</b></p>\n<p>受疫情影响，2020年标普500的<b>每股盈利</b>（EPS）仅为96.5美元，但去年第四季度，美股的EPS已经迅速回升，按照各大投资银行最新的普遍预测，2021年一整年，美股标普500的EPS基本可以实现比2020年接近翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ae082e5e8f0faa991647f33a7ed7d6\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>按照传统的PE（市盈率）来对美股估值，如今4266点的标普500指数，估值高达45.48倍，但如果按照投资银行普遍预测的美股EPS分析，如果现在的标普点位不变，到了明年，标普500的估值将降至（指数点位/EPS=PE）23倍，这是很合理的估值。</p>\n<p>如果用6个月之后的年度EPS（或者说叫做预期EPS）来为美股估值，最近7年来，美股的估值其实稳定得很：<b>基本在20-25倍之间</b>（见下图）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6e9726f4b7e2b78a635a92511bdca8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>说明：2021年以来的PE估值，根据各大投行所预测的2021年EPS进行计算。</p>\n<p>根据这幅图，只有在2019年底到2020年初，因为市场没有预计到经济衰退叠加新冠疫情对于预期PE的影响，所以才显得高估——在过去的7年里，如果不考虑2019年7月-2020年6月的异常数据，标普500指数的估值，最高在24.3，最低在19.4，绝大部分时间都在20-23的狭窄区间内波动。</p>\n<p>通过预期EPS来观察美股估值，市场简直太理性了。</p>\n<p>所以，从根本上来说，美股的估值基本是由预期EPS所驱动的，因为预期EPS大涨或大跌，标普指数就随之大涨或大跌，但预期估值却基本维持稳定。</p>\n<p>预期是什么？</p>\n<p>预期的本质，是市场相信一套故事，一种叙事逻辑。</p>\n<p>这，正是达摩-达兰所讲述的故事-估值的一套逻辑。半年前，我还用这一套方法来给美股估值，假定2021年标普500的EPS能够恢复到120美元，此后每年增长5%，……，最后，将21年的EPS相加，得出来标普500当时的合理价位应在3800点附近……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13b1a5a5dfa234b7298250515e237e7\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>参见文章：2021年，美股的合理价位应该是多少？</p>\n<p>显然，当时的我，严重低估了美国的大型科技公司从疫情中恢复盈利的能力，我预计的120美元EPS，相比当前市场所预测的185美元左右的EPS，足足低了1/3……如果同样按照上述估值逻辑，标普500指数的合理价位可以高至5000点以上。</p>\n<p>当然，达摩达兰也说了，因为世界随时在变化，股票的估值也应该是动态的，要有一个反馈回路，随时因为公司本身以及环境的变化，调整你的估值，甚至推翻整个故事。</p>\n<p>在我们有限的人生经历中，看到的就是美股长牛，即便是短期有点儿调整，很快就恢复元气并且上涨到更高。然而，如果从更长的历史来观察美股，事实并非如此。</p>\n<p>根据本文第一幅图表，以名义价格来计算，1929年美股崩盘之后，此后过了1/4个世纪，美股才涨回到当初崩盘的高点。</p>\n<p>以经通胀调整后的价格来看，从1969年的股市高位跌下来之后，到1982年年中，在13年的时间里，美股都在一路下跌，连跌13年，然后又经历了12年时间，到1994年才涨回到1969年的高位。算下来，同样是经历了1/4个世纪。</p>\n<p>1982年以来，美国能够保持近40年的长牛，而且每一次美股暴跌之后，总是会出现暴力的V型反转，最关键的原因，在于美联储的印钞和官方控制通胀的成功。</p>\n<p>众所周知，1982年迄今，每一次美股遭遇暴跌的时候，美联储总是会祭出他们的宽松货币大法，拼命印钞，使劲儿压低名义利率和实际利率，阻碍市场正常出清和优胜劣汰，进而托住了美股的价格不让它下跌。</p>\n<p>1987年紧急降息；</p>\n<p>2001年持续降息；</p>\n<p>2008年降息至0，开启QE；</p>\n<p>2020年降息至0，开启无限Q；</p>\n<p>……</p>\n<p>美联储印钞和压低利率，至少从三个方面阻碍了美股的正常调整。</p>\n<p>1）印钞购买国债，压低了市场上的无风险收益率，提升了股票相对于国债的吸引力。</p>\n<p>2）压低市场利率，让市场上的储蓄者来补贴借债者，美股的上市公司，能够以更低成本在全球市场融资，本质上变成了放高利贷者。</p>\n<p>3）市场上的钱变多了，美股那些上市的大公司，可以利用自身的信用优势和垄断地位，从市场攫取更多的利润。</p>\n<p>美股如此，中国房地产又何尝不是如此？</p>\n<p>2008年和2014年，中国的房地产价格当时略有调整，政府立即祭出印钞大法，又是降息鼓励民众贷款买房，又是急剧扩大信贷规模，如此一来，这些资产能不成为“长牛”的资产么？</p>\n<p>当然，如果印钞导致市场上出现严重的通货膨胀，政府掩盖不住，那么这个回路就会被打断——1967-1982年正是美国通货膨胀肆虐的15年，这期间美股都是在一路下跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a914def3bacf6418e104839aa626d8b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>为什么官方控制下的轻微通胀有利于股市上涨，而严重通胀，则会导致股市下跌呢？</p>\n<p>因为，严重的通货膨胀会大大抬高市场利率（无风险收益率），这一方面降低了股票资产的相对吸引力，另一方面还会导致很多市场投机者（投资者）更愿意通过囤积物资而获利，这比炒股更赚……</p>\n<p>然而，1982年之后，中国和苏东国家先后加入全球贸易体系，因为科技的扩散，全球的生产能力过剩，无论美联储再怎么印钞，从能源到金属，从粮食到日常消费品，全部都供应充足、大量且廉价，再加上美国巧妙地修改通胀统计方式，这让美国官方通胀率数据始终保持在低位。</p>\n<p>官方通胀率处于低位，通过囤积物资等待上涨的“赚钱方式”被终结，人们更愿意去购买美股这种基本没有持有成本却能够长期上涨的“资产”。</p>\n<p>另外，在低通胀时代，因为美元货币价值的长期稳定，其带来的全球化浪潮，给了美国跨国公司全球攫取利润的能力，现在美国标普500指数所包含的头部科技公司中，海外盈利通常都占了其盈利的30%以上，这大大提升了美股的EPS，进而提升了美股的估值。</p>\n<p>2020年3月份以来的美股V型反转并暴涨，几乎完美地体现了我前面提到的所有方面。</p>\n<p>什么时候美股泡沫才会真正破裂？</p>\n<p>要么，是通货膨胀来袭，市场无风险利率被持续抬高；</p>\n<p>要么，是美国的企业部门或者家庭部门的债务太高，偿还能力出现危机，而美联储停止印钞救助，让市场正常调整；</p>\n<p>还有一种可能，就是以美元为核心的全球信用货币体系崩塌，大家再也不相信美元的价值，一切就会Over。</p>\n<p>总之，从相当长的一个时期来看，只要真实的通货膨胀不起来，只要民众相信官方的通货膨胀数据，只要政府愿意维持债务泡沫，只要央行可以持续印钞，美股以及中房这样的资产，价格都可以被近乎无限地推高。</p>\n<p>这才是现实。</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从美股到中房，泡沫什么时候会破？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从美股到中房，泡沫什么时候会破？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 11:12 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价格来看，自美国参加第二次世界大战以来，除了经历过几次最深约50%的调整之外，美股经历了整整80年的长期牛市；\n从经通货膨胀调整的指数价格来看，美国的牛市则是从1982年年中开始启动，迄今为止，整体上在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PndZJ3UoyyaLgMDRqSvkOA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174566320","content_text":"这个地球上，大概再也没有比美股更坚挺的传统大类资产了。\n下面的这幅图，是从1901年1月份一直到现在美股标普500指数的点位变动情况，分为经通货膨胀调整的价格指数和实时价格指数两种：\n如果从实时指数价格来看，自美国参加第二次世界大战以来，除了经历过几次最深约50%的调整之外，美股经历了整整80年的长期牛市；\n从经通货膨胀调整的指数价格来看，美国的牛市则是从1982年年中开始启动，迄今为止，整体上在接近40年时间持续上涨——期间仅经历过1987年股灾、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情来袭，也就是说，美股差不多要涨10年才会经历一次像样的调整。\n\n自2017年开始，因为美股价格屡创新高，特别是从用于判断过去150年美股的高低点都极为准确的周期市盈率估值（CAPE，也称为Shiller PE）来看，美股的估值之贵，仅次于2000年的科技股泡沫期间，高于1929年的股市泡沫期……\n\n不仅如此，即便用所谓的“巴菲特指标”来看，美股也是贵得离谱：一般认为，美股总市值/GDP应该在70-100%为合理估值，超过120%即为高估，从2017年开始，巴菲特指标就已经超过130%并持续保持。\n\n但是，美股一直坚挺，直到2020年新冠疫情，才经历了一次比较深度的调整——但这次的调整比1987年的股灾时间（调整了4个月时间）还要短得多，在3月份一个月之内跌到最低点，然后迅速实现了V型反转，一直涨到今天……\n到了今天，美股的周期市盈率已经高达38，而巴菲特指标更是突破200%的天际。\n为什么现在的美股能够这么贵，而且还能保持不跌？\n因为——\n市盈率是看过去的指标，而美股的价格却是看未来的预期。\n受疫情影响，2020年标普500的每股盈利（EPS）仅为96.5美元，但去年第四季度，美股的EPS已经迅速回升，按照各大投资银行最新的普遍预测，2021年一整年，美股标普500的EPS基本可以实现比2020年接近翻倍。\n\n按照传统的PE（市盈率）来对美股估值，如今4266点的标普500指数，估值高达45.48倍，但如果按照投资银行普遍预测的美股EPS分析，如果现在的标普点位不变，到了明年，标普500的估值将降至（指数点位/EPS=PE）23倍，这是很合理的估值。\n如果用6个月之后的年度EPS（或者说叫做预期EPS）来为美股估值，最近7年来，美股的估值其实稳定得很：基本在20-25倍之间（见下图）。\n\n说明：2021年以来的PE估值，根据各大投行所预测的2021年EPS进行计算。\n根据这幅图，只有在2019年底到2020年初，因为市场没有预计到经济衰退叠加新冠疫情对于预期PE的影响，所以才显得高估——在过去的7年里，如果不考虑2019年7月-2020年6月的异常数据，标普500指数的估值，最高在24.3，最低在19.4，绝大部分时间都在20-23的狭窄区间内波动。\n通过预期EPS来观察美股估值，市场简直太理性了。\n所以，从根本上来说，美股的估值基本是由预期EPS所驱动的，因为预期EPS大涨或大跌，标普指数就随之大涨或大跌，但预期估值却基本维持稳定。\n预期是什么？\n预期的本质，是市场相信一套故事，一种叙事逻辑。\n这，正是达摩-达兰所讲述的故事-估值的一套逻辑。半年前，我还用这一套方法来给美股估值，假定2021年标普500的EPS能够恢复到120美元，此后每年增长5%，……，最后，将21年的EPS相加，得出来标普500当时的合理价位应在3800点附近……\n\n参见文章：2021年，美股的合理价位应该是多少？\n显然，当时的我，严重低估了美国的大型科技公司从疫情中恢复盈利的能力，我预计的120美元EPS，相比当前市场所预测的185美元左右的EPS，足足低了1/3……如果同样按照上述估值逻辑，标普500指数的合理价位可以高至5000点以上。\n当然，达摩达兰也说了，因为世界随时在变化，股票的估值也应该是动态的，要有一个反馈回路，随时因为公司本身以及环境的变化，调整你的估值，甚至推翻整个故事。\n在我们有限的人生经历中，看到的就是美股长牛，即便是短期有点儿调整，很快就恢复元气并且上涨到更高。然而，如果从更长的历史来观察美股，事实并非如此。\n根据本文第一幅图表，以名义价格来计算，1929年美股崩盘之后，此后过了1/4个世纪，美股才涨回到当初崩盘的高点。\n以经通胀调整后的价格来看，从1969年的股市高位跌下来之后，到1982年年中，在13年的时间里，美股都在一路下跌，连跌13年，然后又经历了12年时间，到1994年才涨回到1969年的高位。算下来，同样是经历了1/4个世纪。\n1982年以来，美国能够保持近40年的长牛，而且每一次美股暴跌之后，总是会出现暴力的V型反转，最关键的原因，在于美联储的印钞和官方控制通胀的成功。\n众所周知，1982年迄今，每一次美股遭遇暴跌的时候，美联储总是会祭出他们的宽松货币大法，拼命印钞，使劲儿压低名义利率和实际利率，阻碍市场正常出清和优胜劣汰，进而托住了美股的价格不让它下跌。\n1987年紧急降息；\n2001年持续降息；\n2008年降息至0，开启QE；\n2020年降息至0，开启无限Q；\n……\n美联储印钞和压低利率，至少从三个方面阻碍了美股的正常调整。\n1）印钞购买国债，压低了市场上的无风险收益率，提升了股票相对于国债的吸引力。\n2）压低市场利率，让市场上的储蓄者来补贴借债者，美股的上市公司，能够以更低成本在全球市场融资，本质上变成了放高利贷者。\n3）市场上的钱变多了，美股那些上市的大公司，可以利用自身的信用优势和垄断地位，从市场攫取更多的利润。\n美股如此，中国房地产又何尝不是如此？\n2008年和2014年，中国的房地产价格当时略有调整，政府立即祭出印钞大法，又是降息鼓励民众贷款买房，又是急剧扩大信贷规模，如此一来，这些资产能不成为“长牛”的资产么？\n当然，如果印钞导致市场上出现严重的通货膨胀，政府掩盖不住，那么这个回路就会被打断——1967-1982年正是美国通货膨胀肆虐的15年，这期间美股都是在一路下跌。\n\n为什么官方控制下的轻微通胀有利于股市上涨，而严重通胀，则会导致股市下跌呢？\n因为，严重的通货膨胀会大大抬高市场利率（无风险收益率），这一方面降低了股票资产的相对吸引力，另一方面还会导致很多市场投机者（投资者）更愿意通过囤积物资而获利，这比炒股更赚……\n然而，1982年之后，中国和苏东国家先后加入全球贸易体系，因为科技的扩散，全球的生产能力过剩，无论美联储再怎么印钞，从能源到金属，从粮食到日常消费品，全部都供应充足、大量且廉价，再加上美国巧妙地修改通胀统计方式，这让美国官方通胀率数据始终保持在低位。\n官方通胀率处于低位，通过囤积物资等待上涨的“赚钱方式”被终结，人们更愿意去购买美股这种基本没有持有成本却能够长期上涨的“资产”。\n另外，在低通胀时代，因为美元货币价值的长期稳定，其带来的全球化浪潮，给了美国跨国公司全球攫取利润的能力，现在美国标普500指数所包含的头部科技公司中，海外盈利通常都占了其盈利的30%以上，这大大提升了美股的EPS，进而提升了美股的估值。\n2020年3月份以来的美股V型反转并暴涨，几乎完美地体现了我前面提到的所有方面。\n什么时候美股泡沫才会真正破裂？\n要么，是通货膨胀来袭，市场无风险利率被持续抬高；\n要么，是美国的企业部门或者家庭部门的债务太高，偿还能力出现危机，而美联储停止印钞救助，让市场正常调整；\n还有一种可能，就是以美元为核心的全球信用货币体系崩塌，大家再也不相信美元的价值，一切就会Over。\n总之，从相当长的一个时期来看，只要真实的通货膨胀不起来，只要民众相信官方的通货膨胀数据，只要政府愿意维持债务泡沫，只要央行可以持续印钞，美股以及中房这样的资产，价格都可以被近乎无限地推高。\n这才是现实。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163495639,"gmtCreate":1623890720921,"gmtModify":1703822572874,"author":{"id":"3586982400040028","authorId":"3586982400040028","name":"投资小新手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5684c5d32277666acac57f03b1a5e71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586982400040028","authorIdStr":"3586982400040028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163495639","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144713861","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623883569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144713861?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144713861","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 16 - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.The Fed cited an impr","content":"<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street closes lower as Fed officials project rate hikes for 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 06:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.</p>\n<p>New projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.</p>\n<p>The Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.</p>\n<p>\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>.</p>\n<p>The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.</p>\n<p>With inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.</p>\n<p>The Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.</p>\n<p>\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.</p>\n<p>Only two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.</p>\n<p>The decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713861","content_text":"June 16 (Reuters) - The three main Wall Street indexes all closed down on Wednesday, as U.S. Federal Reserve officials unnerved investors with indications that the central bank could begin rising interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than expected.\nNew projections saw a majority of 11 of 18 U.S. central bank officials pencil in at least two quarter-percentage-point rate increases for 2023. Officials also pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage an ongoing jobs recovery.\nThe Fed cited an improved economic outlook, with overall economic growth expected to hit 7% this year. Still, investors were surprised to learn officials were mulling rate hikes earlier than 2024.\n\"At first blush, the dot plot which projected two hikes by 2023 was more hawkish than expected, and markets reacted as such,\" said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose on the Fed news, while the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to a six-week peak.\nWith inflation rising faster than expected and the economy bouncing back quickly, the market had been looking for clues of when the Fed may alter the policies put into place last year to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, including a massive bond-buying program.\nThe Fed reiterated its promise to await \"substantial further progress\" before beginning to shift to policies tuned to a fully open economy. It also held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero and said it will continue to buy $120 billion in bonds each month to fuel the economic recovery.\n\"Chair Powell has signaled, while the committee is not yet ready to taper, it is now in the minds of the committee. They've retired the phrase 'thinking about thinking about tapering', and we expect that in the next few meetings, the committee will likely formally start discussions of tapering,\" BNP's Ahn said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 265.66 points, or 0.77%, to 34,033.67, the S&P 500 lost 22.89 points, or 0.54%, to 4,223.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.17 points, or 0.24%, to 14,039.68.\nOnly two of the S&P's 11 main sector indexes ended in positive territory: consumer discretionary and retail.\nThe decliners were led by utilities, materials, and consumer staples.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 95 new highs and 30 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
