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2021-06-24

EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet

S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon

2021-06-24

Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential

2021-06-24

Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.

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2021-06-24

Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time

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2021-06-24

Lol

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2021-06-24

Wow

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2021-06-24

Billionaire problems lol

Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board

2021-06-24

Nice

Value Is Outpacing Growth. But Value Managers Still Can’t Beat the Index.

2021-06-24

BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did

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2021-06-24

Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management

Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash

2021-06-24

Let's go NIO!

Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla

2021-06-24

Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!

Square: Winner Takes Most

2021-06-22

60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations

Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now

2021-06-22

What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon

Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs

2021-06-21

Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance

Citi says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open

2021-06-21

Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!

Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-21

No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment

5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued

2021-06-19

Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips

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2021-06-19

Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share

ROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.

2021-06-19

Interesting

Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","listText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","text":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126186899","repostId":"1167326019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167326019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624541460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167326019?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167326019","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market f","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167326019","content_text":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.\nThe broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.\nA broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.\nData out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.\nTraders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%\nBank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.\nDespite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.\n\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.\n\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126189681,"gmtCreate":1624547509443,"gmtModify":1703840107181,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","listText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","text":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126189681","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121587593,"gmtCreate":1624478026212,"gmtModify":1703837850574,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","listText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","text":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121587593","repostId":"1115637073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585287,"gmtCreate":1624477279549,"gmtModify":1703837847503,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","listText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","text":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585287","repostId":"1143023261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585300,"gmtCreate":1624477142400,"gmtModify":1703837847020,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585300","repostId":"1179305353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585048,"gmtCreate":1624477046984,"gmtModify":1703837846697,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585048","repostId":"1103650363","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582221,"gmtCreate":1624476936964,"gmtModify":1703837845725,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Billionaire problems lol","listText":"Billionaire problems lol","text":"Billionaire problems lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582221","repostId":"1115142051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115142051","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624447827,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115142051?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115142051","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since ","content":"<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad33e43f59ee4df358ff3db98d9cfd5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\">Buffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.</p>\n<p>Ina statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>While it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.</p>\n<p>Melinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.</p>\n<p>Buffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"</p>\n<p>Suzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115142051","content_text":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.\nBuffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.\nIna statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".\n\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n\nWhile it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.\nMelinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.\nBuffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"\nSuzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582805,"gmtCreate":1624476902307,"gmtModify":1703837845564,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582805","repostId":"1155637149","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155637149","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624448532,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155637149?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value Is Outpacing Growth. But Value Managers Still Can’t Beat the Index.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155637149","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stock-picking is no more successful when value is beating growth than when it’s the other way around","content":"<p>Stock-picking is no more successful when value is beating growth than when it’s the other way around.</p>\n<p>That’s important to remember right now, since it increasingly appears that value has finally turned the corner in its epic battle against growth.</p>\n<p>Value stocks, of course, are those trading for the lowest ratios of price to various measures of financial performance, such as book value and earnings. Growth stocks are those trading for the highest such ratios. Though value stocks’ return relative to growth has stalled over the past couple of weeks, they are still well ahead for the period extending back to the end of last August—more than nine months ago. That’s long enough to convince many that value’s outperformance is more than a flash in the pan.</p>\n<p>Anticipating this trend will continue, some champions of active management are insisting that index funds are therefore to be avoided. It’s a convenient narrative, which, if true, justifies paying the higher management fees that active managers charge relative to index funds.</p>\n<p>Don’t fall for it.</p>\n<p>To be sure, it certainly appears as though these champions of active management have history on their side. That’s because far more value funds beat the S&amp;P 500 index when value is dominant than during such periods than when growth is beating value. It’s overwhelming, in fact.</p>\n<p>Consider the 500 or so actively managed open-end mutual funds that Morningstar Direct classifies as in the value camp. Since the end of last August, which is when value began its recent outperformance, virtually all of them—some 95%—have beaten the S&amp;P 500. During the prior five years, during which growth far outpaced value, hardly any of these value funds (fewer than 1%) beat the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Consider the Bridgeway Small-Cap Value fund (ticker: BRSVX), which is the best performer since the end of last August among the funds in Morningstar Direct’s value category. It has gained 99.4% since then, compared with the S&amp;P 500’s 22.3%, including reinvested dividends. Over the five years before last August, however, the fund produced an annualized return of just 2.8%, versus 14.3% for the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Yet these statistics. compelling as they might seem, still don’t support the stock-picking narrative. That’s because the S&amp;P 500 is an inappropriate benchmark for judging the performance of a value mutual fund. The index is dominated by large-cap growth stocks, so comparing value fund managers to it tells you nothing about their stock-picking abilities.</p>\n<p>Consider the five stocks that currently dominate the index—the famous FAAMG names: Facebook (FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), which together represent more than 20% of the total market cap of the index. Each has a sky-high price-to-book ratio, the hallmark of a growth stock. Their average price-to-book ratio is more than 15, according to FactSet, which is more than five times the 2.7 average ratio for the S&amp;P 500 Value index.</p>\n<p>The proper benchmark for judging the stock-picking abilities of a value manager is, of course, an index containing value stocks. And relative to their proper benchmarks, only a precious few value funds come out ahead.</p>\n<p>Lawrence Tint, the former U.S. CEO of BGI, the organization that created iShares (now part of BlackRock ), goes even further. He argues that there never will be a period in which a majority of actively managed value funds beat their appropriate benchmarks. In an interview, he insisted that if it ever appeared to the contrary, then we can be assured that we’re judging the funds against the wrong benchmarks.</p>\n<p>To support this bold claim, Tint refers to a seminal 1991 article in the Financial Analysts Journal: “The Arithmetic of Active Management.” The article was written by William Sharpe, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990. Tint at the time was president of Sharpe-Tint, a consulting firm.</p>\n<p>In the article, Sharpe demonstrated that beating the market is a zero-sum game before transaction costs, and a negative-sum game net of those fees. “On average, therefore, actively managed mutual funds must lag the performance of a passive index,” Tint says.</p>\n<p>Is the Market for Value Stocks Especially Inefficient?</p>\n<p>Tint’s argument speaks directly to the second of the bogus reasons that are being used to justify active management in a value-dominated market: that the universe of value stocks contains an especially wide range of good and bad investments, creating more potential for a value-stock picker to add value by avoiding the worst issues. In effect, this argument is that the market for value stocks is especially inefficient and therefore easier to beat.</p>\n<p>This argument doesn’t appear to hold water. There would seem to be just as wide a range in the growth stock universe between stocks whose growth can be bought at a reasonable price and those that are wildly overvalued. Growth-fund managers can easily argue that active management is just as important for them, if not more so, than for value-fund managers.</p>\n<p>Tint responds that his conclusion still applies even if it’s true that the market for value stocks is especially inefficient. “If one value manager picks stocks that beat their benchmark,” Tint argues, “then someone else must lose. And after you take transaction costs into account, they on average will have lagged the market.”</p>\n<p><b>How to Invest in Value</b></p>\n<p>The investment implication is clear: If you want to bet on value beating growth, then you should invest in an index fund. To pick one, you will also need to decide whether to invest in large-, mid-, or small-cap issues, since there is a powerful interaction between the growth-versus-value and market-cap dimensions. As usual, Vanguard Group offers some of the least-expensive index funds in each of these three market-cap categories:</p>\n<p>Large-cap value: the Vanguard Value exchange-traded fund (VTV), with an expense ratio of 0.04% (or $4 per $10,000 invested).</p>\n<p>Mid-cap value: the Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE), with an 0.07% expense ratio.</p>\n<p>Small-cap value: the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), with an 0.07% expense ratio.</p>\n<p>I note that each of these ETFs has far outpaced the S&amp;P 500 since the end of last August. In contrast to the 22.3% gain since then for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), these three Vanguard ETFs have produced returns of 29.8%, 37.8%, and 52.5%, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Is Outpacing Growth. But Value Managers Still Can’t Beat the Index.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Is Outpacing Growth. But Value Managers Still Can’t Beat the Index.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-managers-still-cant-beat-the-index-51624411524?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock-picking is no more successful when value is beating growth than when it’s the other way around.\nThat’s important to remember right now, since it increasingly appears that value has finally ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-managers-still-cant-beat-the-index-51624411524?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/value-managers-still-cant-beat-the-index-51624411524?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155637149","content_text":"Stock-picking is no more successful when value is beating growth than when it’s the other way around.\nThat’s important to remember right now, since it increasingly appears that value has finally turned the corner in its epic battle against growth.\nValue stocks, of course, are those trading for the lowest ratios of price to various measures of financial performance, such as book value and earnings. Growth stocks are those trading for the highest such ratios. Though value stocks’ return relative to growth has stalled over the past couple of weeks, they are still well ahead for the period extending back to the end of last August—more than nine months ago. That’s long enough to convince many that value’s outperformance is more than a flash in the pan.\nAnticipating this trend will continue, some champions of active management are insisting that index funds are therefore to be avoided. It’s a convenient narrative, which, if true, justifies paying the higher management fees that active managers charge relative to index funds.\nDon’t fall for it.\nTo be sure, it certainly appears as though these champions of active management have history on their side. That’s because far more value funds beat the S&P 500 index when value is dominant than during such periods than when growth is beating value. It’s overwhelming, in fact.\nConsider the 500 or so actively managed open-end mutual funds that Morningstar Direct classifies as in the value camp. Since the end of last August, which is when value began its recent outperformance, virtually all of them—some 95%—have beaten the S&P 500. During the prior five years, during which growth far outpaced value, hardly any of these value funds (fewer than 1%) beat the S&P 500.\nConsider the Bridgeway Small-Cap Value fund (ticker: BRSVX), which is the best performer since the end of last August among the funds in Morningstar Direct’s value category. It has gained 99.4% since then, compared with the S&P 500’s 22.3%, including reinvested dividends. Over the five years before last August, however, the fund produced an annualized return of just 2.8%, versus 14.3% for the S&P 500.\nYet these statistics. compelling as they might seem, still don’t support the stock-picking narrative. That’s because the S&P 500 is an inappropriate benchmark for judging the performance of a value mutual fund. The index is dominated by large-cap growth stocks, so comparing value fund managers to it tells you nothing about their stock-picking abilities.\nConsider the five stocks that currently dominate the index—the famous FAAMG names: Facebook (FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), which together represent more than 20% of the total market cap of the index. Each has a sky-high price-to-book ratio, the hallmark of a growth stock. Their average price-to-book ratio is more than 15, according to FactSet, which is more than five times the 2.7 average ratio for the S&P 500 Value index.\nThe proper benchmark for judging the stock-picking abilities of a value manager is, of course, an index containing value stocks. And relative to their proper benchmarks, only a precious few value funds come out ahead.\nLawrence Tint, the former U.S. CEO of BGI, the organization that created iShares (now part of BlackRock ), goes even further. He argues that there never will be a period in which a majority of actively managed value funds beat their appropriate benchmarks. In an interview, he insisted that if it ever appeared to the contrary, then we can be assured that we’re judging the funds against the wrong benchmarks.\nTo support this bold claim, Tint refers to a seminal 1991 article in the Financial Analysts Journal: “The Arithmetic of Active Management.” The article was written by William Sharpe, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990. Tint at the time was president of Sharpe-Tint, a consulting firm.\nIn the article, Sharpe demonstrated that beating the market is a zero-sum game before transaction costs, and a negative-sum game net of those fees. “On average, therefore, actively managed mutual funds must lag the performance of a passive index,” Tint says.\nIs the Market for Value Stocks Especially Inefficient?\nTint’s argument speaks directly to the second of the bogus reasons that are being used to justify active management in a value-dominated market: that the universe of value stocks contains an especially wide range of good and bad investments, creating more potential for a value-stock picker to add value by avoiding the worst issues. In effect, this argument is that the market for value stocks is especially inefficient and therefore easier to beat.\nThis argument doesn’t appear to hold water. There would seem to be just as wide a range in the growth stock universe between stocks whose growth can be bought at a reasonable price and those that are wildly overvalued. Growth-fund managers can easily argue that active management is just as important for them, if not more so, than for value-fund managers.\nTint responds that his conclusion still applies even if it’s true that the market for value stocks is especially inefficient. “If one value manager picks stocks that beat their benchmark,” Tint argues, “then someone else must lose. And after you take transaction costs into account, they on average will have lagged the market.”\nHow to Invest in Value\nThe investment implication is clear: If you want to bet on value beating growth, then you should invest in an index fund. To pick one, you will also need to decide whether to invest in large-, mid-, or small-cap issues, since there is a powerful interaction between the growth-versus-value and market-cap dimensions. As usual, Vanguard Group offers some of the least-expensive index funds in each of these three market-cap categories:\nLarge-cap value: the Vanguard Value exchange-traded fund (VTV), with an expense ratio of 0.04% (or $4 per $10,000 invested).\nMid-cap value: the Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE), with an 0.07% expense ratio.\nSmall-cap value: the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), with an 0.07% expense ratio.\nI note that each of these ETFs has far outpaced the S&P 500 since the end of last August. In contrast to the 22.3% gain since then for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), these three Vanguard ETFs have produced returns of 29.8%, 37.8%, and 52.5%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582050,"gmtCreate":1624476730570,"gmtModify":1703837845240,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","listText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","text":"BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582050","repostId":"1121798334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586867,"gmtCreate":1624476578159,"gmtModify":1703837844594,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","listText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","text":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121586867","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145283099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624452600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145283099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145283099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales fell off a cliff, and so did the stock price.","content":"<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.</p>\n<p>Other cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. <b>Ethereum</b> (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.</p>\n<p>Graphics chip developer <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eae70fe3111cdeb0fe2fe15c5e5fcf3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.</p>\n<p>What happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.</p>\n<h3>From shortage to supply glut</h3>\n<p>The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?</p>\n<p>NVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F631439%2Fnvidia-gaming-revenue-crypto.png&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.</p>\n<p>The crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.</p>\n<p>\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.</p>\n<p>Kress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"</p>\n<p>What's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.</p>\n<p>Actual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.</p>\n<p>Just like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872169a76058d1b9cde031da052b3211\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>\n<p>NVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145283099","content_text":"It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.\nOther cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.\nGraphics chip developer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.\nWhat happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.\nFrom shortage to supply glut\nThe price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?\nNVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.\n\nChart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.\nThe crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.\n\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.\nKress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"\nWhat's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.\nActual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.\nJust like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.\n\nNVDA data by YCharts\nNVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586961,"gmtCreate":1624476424653,"gmtModify":1703837844271,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","text":"Let's go NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121586961","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145825451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624433586,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145825451?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145825451","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.Super fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc. model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.The go","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Super fans of the latest and greatest high-end<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b294a3604c7ba82bd19b3c70be3a4020\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Musk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”</p>\n<p>The Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.</p>\n<p>Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.</p>\n<p>As a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.</p>\n<p>This “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.</p>\n<p>Both the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.</p>\n<p>Clearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”</p>\n<p>As someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know do<i>not</i>want to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.</p>\n<p>What Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.</p>\n<p>This is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.</p>\n<p>However, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential</b></p>\n<p>I’m talking about&nbsp;<b>Nio, Inc.</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio back in February.</p>\n<p>The company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.</p>\n<p>The company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies like<b>NVIDIA Corporation</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>), another one of my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.</p>\n<p>With the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.</p>\n<p>That means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”</p>\n<p>Interestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO represents the<b>crème de la crème</b>of EV stocks right now.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145825451","content_text":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.\nSource: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com\nMusk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”\nThe Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.\nInstead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.\nAs a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.\nThis “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.\nBoth the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.\nClearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”\nAs someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know donotwant to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.\nWhat Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.\nThe good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.\nThis is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.\nHowever, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.\nTaking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential\nI’m talking about Nio, Inc.(NYSE:NIO). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio back in February.\nThe company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.\nThe company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies likeNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA), another one of myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.\nNow, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.\nWith the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.\nThat means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.\nShares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”\nInterestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.\nIn other words, NIO represents thecrème de la crèmeof EV stocks right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121504310,"gmtCreate":1624469965430,"gmtModify":1703837790165,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","listText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","text":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121504310","repostId":"1188931868","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188931868","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624352654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188931868?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 17:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: Winner Takes Most","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188931868","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nArguably the most important fintech metric is customer acquisition cost (CAC). Square’s mas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Arguably the most important fintech metric is customer acquisition cost (CAC). Square’s mastery of viral marketing results in the lowest CAC in the digital wallet space. This is a moat.</li>\n <li>Square is building massive ecosystems in Cash App and Seller that are just beginning to overlap, which results in massive cross-selling opportunities and network effects.</li>\n <li>Square banking is a major catalyst that has not received sufficient attention from analysts or investors.</li>\n <li>Square has spent an entire year building as-of-yet unannounced Square Checking and Square Banking products. This is a shot across the bow at incumbent banks, and indicates Square is ready for a higher level of fintech warfare.</li>\n <li>Square’s future relationship with crypto remains undercooked, and Dorsey’s overfocus on Bitcoin to the exclusion of alternative coins is an uncommon mistake.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Square's Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>When I begin researching a company for an article, I always start with the CEO. For as much as I know about balance sheets and technical analysis, it is the CEO that I am most critical and analytical about.</p>\n<p>This is reflected in the types of companies I invest in and write about. Opendoor (OPEN), SoFi (SOFI), Zillow (Z) and Palantir (PLTR) are each led by visionary CEO’s, with colorful histories who make massive contributions to their industries. In my opinion, the story behind these disruptive companies and the CEOs who lead them can inform investment decisions as surely as an earnings report.</p>\n<p>Writing this article began no differently. Jack Dorsey, the $15 Billion dollar man who leads both Square (SQ) and Twitter (TWTR), is one of Wall Street’s biggest eccentricities. He has a penchant for meditating, facial hair, intermittent fasting, 80+ minute morning walks and wields an invisible armor that has allowed him to endure a decade of investors ranting he over-focuses on Square to the detriment of Twitter (sorry Twitter longs).</p>\n<p>Today, we will dive into Square – its competitive advantages over neo-banking peers and incumbents alike, Square's banking opportunity, as well as an update on Square’s cryptocurrency initiatives. Square is the best positioned company in the digital wallet space, and Jack's advertising expertise gained by founding and running Twitter has allowed Square to deploy viral marketing campaigns to fuel absurd growth in Cash App. Cash App's success is rivaled only by Square's Seller ecosystem, and these two businesses are just beginning to combine, interact and compound.</p>\n<p>We're going to talk about all of this here. But first, I want to share a story about how a young Square, in its first years as a company, suffered a direct Amazon (AMZN) salvo and somehow emerged stronger.</p>\n<p><b>How Square Survived An Amazon Siege</b></p>\n<p>Bookstores, brick and mortal retail, supermarkets, meal-kits, enterprise cloud, the list of industries Amazon has bled out and internalized stretches on.</p>\n<p>Amazon has earned the moniker, “The Death Star.”Bought and paid for it. Over the past two decades no other company has so pervasively and efficiently disrupted legacy industries.</p>\n<p>As a brief anecdote, in his early days at Amazon, CEO and founder Jeff Bezos was always searching for ways to eliminate company overhead. In his mind, the less Amazon spent on operations, the more savings could be passed on to Amazon customers.</p>\n<p>In this vein, instead of purchasing a fancy desk for his office, Bezos built his own out of a recycled door and some two by fours. This practice caught on, and Amazon's employees participated broadly by building their own desks out of wooden doors.</p>\n<p>The wooden door initiative served two purposes: 1) it was a cultural commitment to humility, from the top down, and 2) it emphasized the importance of spending money only on initiatives that improve the customer experience.</p>\n<p>There's a picture of Bezos working away on his door deskhere. I’m tempted to frame this photograph, and I probably would if my fiancé would let me. Just confirmed, she says no. But I love this combined concept of customer obsession and frugality.</p>\n<p>From a capital allocation, leadership, and customer-centric perspective, it’s easy to look back now and recognize how Amazon became the goliath it is today. Bezos may not look it, but he is a ruthless, patient CEO whose basilisk gaze you pray doesn’t fall on your industry.</p>\n<p>So when Amazon turned its cannons on a private, relatively small payment processing company named Square in 2014, you didn’t have to be a rocket scientist to know who would be left standing after the dust settled.</p>\n<p>But if you assumed it would be Amazon, you would have been wrong.</p>\n<p>“Amazon Register” was built to kill Square. It undercut Square’s pricing by 30% and offered live customer service (which Square did not have). Even by Square co-founderJim McKelvey’s own admission, Amazon’s product worked better than Square’s ‘dongle’ did (I hate that word as much as you do and I promise to not use it again).</p>\n<p>But Square survived. Thrived in fact. Square continued to execute along the same playbook, launched new features like Square Capital to the innovation stack, and grew roughly 10% week over week that year. Amazon, for all its strength, could not compete with Square in offerings, and small businesses were understandably skeptical about partnering with Amazon.</p>\n<p>After the year-long siege, on October 30, 2015, Amazon gracefully bowed out, announcing they were shuttering Amazon Register. When the hardware was officially discontinued in early 2016, Amazon mailed a white Square card reader to each of its business customers.</p>\n<p>And the rest is history.</p>\n<p>Since Square’s IPO in 2015, the company has continued to fend off fearsome competitors such as Intuit (INTU), PayPal (PYPL), and Shopify (SHOP), not to mention the largest banking systems in the world. Square has ridden a wave of timely and engaging financial innovations to a market cap of $107 Billion at the time of this writing. Cash App’s growth has been an absolute rocket ship, and Dorsey is delivering on the long term vision of connecting Seller and Cash App to one, unified ecosystem.</p>\n<p><b>Square’s Moat: Customer Acquisition Cost</b></p>\n<p>In the banking space, the company that optimizes lifetime value [LTV] vs customer acquisition cost [CAC] is the company that wins.</p>\n<p>Read that again, write it down, bold it and underline it.</p>\n<p>This is not supernatural. Behind the B-school terminology is a basic principle of unit economics: make more from a customer than it costs to acquire them, and do it better than competitors.</p>\n<p>Of all the participants in the banking ecosystem, I believe Square has the lowest customer acquisition costs. This is a major part of the Dorsey value proposition, and misunderstood.</p>\n<p>As founder and CEO of both Square and Twitter, Dorsey has been able to leverage his incredibly nuanced understanding of viral communication to inform viral marketing. Starting in 2017, Twitter mediated campaigns like #CashAppFriday, in which Square offers thousands of dollars to Twitter users who post their Cash App handle, has drawn massive numbers of comments, retweets and Cash App downloads. Partnerships with engaging content developers like the Joe Rogan Experience, Lex Fridmen, Burger King, Travis Scott and Lil B have continued to drive brand awareness. This brand awareness is critical, especially in a crowded digital banking space.According to this study, 82% of app or internet searchers choose a familiar brand for the first click.</p>\n<p>As an example of viral and opportunistic marketing, in 2018 a prominent content creator on TikTok, “Shiggy” released a SoundCloud song about Cash App. After striking a sponsorship deal with Shiggy in 2019, the Cash App marketing team edited a shorter version of the single, and reached out to TikTok influencers with the below message:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Create a TikTok with your best interpretation of the catchy song in everyday situations. And use hashtag #CashAppThatMoney.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:Business Insider</p>\n<p>To date, the Shiggy Cash App song has beenused in 9,138 videos. Prominent TikTok influencers such as Addison Rae (81+ million followers) have leveraged their massive platforms to drive hundreds of millions of views.</p>\n<p>Look at the below tweet I found from Cash App on May 7thof this year. By leveraging Cash App’s 1.2 million Twitter followers, $5k in marketing spend and goodwill resulted in 17.4k comments and 26.7k retweets. Those retweets create a reverberation in the Twitter ecosystem and result in a geometric increase in captive eyeballs. Now I am not a TikTok'er and I started a Twitter account within the past month, but it's important to appreciate Square's masterful use of these millennial and Gen Z driven platforms. Assuming roughly one in 50 retweeting individuals downloads CashApp, Square’s CAC is &lt; $10 dollars.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee784888614bff23c414cecae7e5f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:CashApp Twitter</p>\n<p>The takehome point from this type of marketing? Cash App is able to climb a more vertical slope of user acquisition at lower cost than challenger and incumbent banks alike.</p>\n<p>ARK Invest estimatesincumbent banks spend an average of $925 dollars on customer acquisition. On Square’s most recent earning’s call, management confirmed their CAC was less than $5 dollars. Said another way, Square’s marketing and customer acquisition is 18,500% higher than your retail bank.</p>\n<p>So how has Square flown under the radar of the massive U.S. banking industry?</p>\n<p>Square’s strategy to largely target unbanked or “under-banked” individuals allowed them to build a platform without drawing the attention of Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). But Square is now one of the top ten largest ‘banks’ in the United States by market cap, and is expanding its total addressable market to those who are already clients of traditional banks.</p>\n<p>This strategy of finding an underserved population, providing value to those customers, then broadening offerings and selling upmarket is in Square’s DNA. They followed the same playbook on the Seller side, initially targeting small businesses doing less than $100k in GMV, but today Square's fastest growing segment is mid- to large-size businesses.</p>\n<p>Square’s peer Venmo cannot flex the same marketing efficiencies as Cash App. Cash App continues to hold the crown as the most downloaded finance application on Apple’s App Store (AAPL) as well as Google Play Store (GOOG), more popular than Venmo, PayPal Cash, and Robinhood (RBNHD). Furthermore, Square has a full 10X more followers than Venmo on Twitter. These advantages manifest as Square enjoying a healthy gap over Venmo in search as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ee1067df9e647949f72f4d772af186\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Similarweb</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df7398ef5a030917f6de3ac8d13fe5a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: I made this with help fromGoogle Trends</p>\n<p>Perhaps most importantly, although Venmo has more monthly active users (MAU’s), Square is better at<i>monetizing</i>these users.According to RBC Capital analyst DanielPerlin, Venmo garners roughly $12 from each MAU, whereas Cash App brings in $54. And due to industry low CAC, Cash App gets the extra benefit of being more profitable as well.</p>\n<p>While there is much more that can be said about Square and PayPal’s competition in the challenger banking space, it is this customer acquisition and long term value that underlies why I prefer holding shares of Square over PayPal.</p>\n<p>Square is just doing the important things better than Venmo. Part of this is Dorsey's social media advantages, but I believe much if it has to do with the fact that Venmo was acquired by PayPal, whereas Square remains independent. The innovative connective tissue which once held Venmo together and fostered bold ideas and big bets was absorbed into the massive PayPal machine, and lost.</p>\n<p>As a SoFi shareholder and bull, I was disappointed to learn in my research that SoFi has been unable thus far to creatively turn its Twitter presence into a customer acquisition engine. Despite 120k+ followers, the SoFi Twitter page has relatively low engagement and no promotional activities reminiscent of #CashAppFriday. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto coincidentally was formerly COO of Twitter when #CashAppFriday first launched, and I believe he will be able to leverage this experience into a more engaging social media presence. Fortunately for SoFi, their CAC's are low (~$40) with much higher LTV's than Cash App as of now (roughly double, close to $2,000 with cross selling into lending).</p>\n<p><b>Square Financial Services: A Bank For All Mankind</b></p>\n<p>On March 1, 2021, Square announced its banking service had begun operations after completing the charter approval process with the FDIC. This is a massive catalyst for Square’s business, and positions them squarely against the glacially slow incumbent banks.</p>\n<p>I recently wrote adeep dive on SoFi(SOFI), which is also pursuing a bank charter, and discussed the massive benefits these fintech companies inherit by building banking infrastructure. With this banking platform, Square will be able to make loans using deposits on its platform, originate loans to small businesses, and improve profitability.</p>\n<p>About a month ago, an iOS developer namedSteve Moser discovered codeon a Square software update revealing new products “Square Checking” and “Square Savings.” Based on the code, Square is planning to offer 0.5% interest rates for its savings accounts through 2021, a full 8+ times higher than thenational savings account average.</p>\n<p>Square's banking play is a continuation of the playbook that led them to purchase Credit Karma’s tax preparation business in 2020. At the time of the acquisition, roughly 2 million Americans used Karma to file returns, with an average refund of $2k. Those tax returns were then deposited in Cash App accounts, where fintech magic happens. Higher account deposits can be loaned out, drive increased transaction volume, and ultimately elevate the LTV of the user.</p>\n<p>SoFi is doing something similar with its $3k account minimums for SoFi IPO Invest, and Square’s banking venture has the opportunity to both elevate account balances and steal additional customers from incumbent banks.</p>\n<p>And the incumbent banks are terrified. See what Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and perhaps the most famous banker in the world has said about Square over the years.</p>\n<blockquote>\n What does the small business want? They wanted to process cash and checks and debit on the same machine. We didn’t give them that opportunity. Square did.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan, Investor Day, 2019</p>\n<p>And more recently when asked if JPM should be scared of challenger banks like Square:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Absolutely we should be scared s---less about that. We’ve just got to get quicker, better, faster.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan, Investor Day, January, 2021</p>\n<p>Most importantly, adding banking services multiplies the LTV of Square's customers, and is a major step towards Cash App becoming a financial super app. The single biggest money maker for individual banking customers is checking and savings accounts. According to an ARK Invest white paper, LTV per retail banking customer is roughly $3,600, of which a full 25%, or $900 is checking and savings accounts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bdfa91840a4611caf6808ad0c4bb076\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: ARK Invest, with annotations from me:Cash App vs Venmo</p>\n<p>You can breathlessly hype Square's Bitcoin opportunities and wax poetic about Cash App's booming Bitcoin revenue, but the meat and potatoes is here, right in front of us: Square banking. The weapon Square will use to dethrone the incumbent banks is slowly being drawn from its sheath.</p>\n<p><b>Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin Obsession</b></p>\n<p>For those of you who don't follow Dorsey on Twitter or read updates about the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) 2021 Convention, believe me when I say Jack is<i>convicted</i>about the role Bitcoin will play in the Internet’s future.</p>\n<blockquote>\n If I were not at Square or Twitter, I would be working on bitcoin. If bitcoin needed more help than Square or Twitter, I would leave them for bitcoin.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Jack Dorsey, CEO Square, CEO Twitter,Bitcoin 2021 Conference</p>\n<p>At the conference Dorsey announced Square is considering releasing a hardware Bitcoin wallet. For those unfamiliar, when you purchase cryptocurrency on an exchange, the vast majority of the time it is not actually<i>yours</i>, but is in fact an IOU. If you’ve heard the expression, “Not your keys, not your coins,” this is referring directly to this issue. If you don’t have a hardware wallet with a password only you have access to, then the coins don’t truly belong to you.</p>\n<p>Regarding Square's involvement inBitcoin hardware wallets, color me unimpressed. I was surprised to see Square’s stock pop on that news. I can’t really see a situation where a company doing $20+ Billion a year in sales like Square gets meaningful top or bottom line contribution from a glorified flash drive. It’s just not going to move the needle.</p>\n<p>To be honest, cryptocurrency is the biggest potential blind spot I see right now in Dorsey’s execution. Don’t get me wrong, as a Square shareholder I will<i>gladly accept a</i>1,047% increase year over year in Bitcoin revenue to $3.51 B as of Q1 2021. But Dorsey refusing to allow any other coins on the Cash App platform is, in my opinion, the wrong choice for Square and cryptocurrency in general. I have already heard several friends comment they see no role for Cash App because its “crypto features” only allow for Bitcoin trading.</p>\n<p>“That’s why we don’t deal with any other ‘currencies’ or ‘coins’ because we’re so focused on making bitcoin the native currency for the internet,”</p>\n<p>-Jack Dorsey, CEO Square</p>\n<p>Effectively, Dorsey is limiting features for Square’s Cash App users to focus all attention on Bitcoin. But that’s not really how cryptocurrency works – over the past several years the market share of Bitcoin has declined slightly as new platforms have generated interest and ease of investing in alternative coins. Diversity of coin options coincided with Bitcoin reaching its highest market capitalization of all time. I believe there is space for more than one coin in the future, and am personally invested in Ethereum (ETH-USD) due to the utility it offers as the nexus of Internet 3.0.</p>\n<p>I would love to see Dorsey developing revenue-driving crypto services such as decentralized finance for Square. I said this for SoFi, and I will say it again for Square: a staking system, by which users are granted upsize interest for holding Bitcoin in their Cash App, for example, would dramatically elevate Cash App’s value proposition. This is something for all challenger banks to explore and invest in, and it is a game changer.</p>\n<p>All that said, Square has a history of surprising analysts and investors with clever solutions that delight customers. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency landscape<i>needs</i>innovation and development, and Square is well capitalized in cash and intellect to address this issue.</p>\n<p><b>Square's Near Term Risks</b></p>\n<p>Despite how positive I feel about Square's long-term positioning in the fintech space, I would be remiss if I did not alert you to several considerable near term risks. Square is hurtling towards challenging 2020 comps, with Q2 2020 being the first quarter of government disbursement checks. While I expect Square to post excellent Seller and Cash App numbers, growth will inherently moderate. Furthermore, Cash App benefited from Robinhood's well-publicized meltdown in Q1, as retail investors searched for more transparent and reliable trading platforms. This resulted in a pull-forward of user growth, and I do not believe this is sustainable or reflective of Cash App's long term user growth rates.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, Square's Q1 2021 shareholder letter was chock full of new operating expense forecasts for Q2. Square promised stock based compensation would rise materially in Q2 as new hirings occurred (in Q1 was $118 million), an increase in product development and G&amp;A by $120 million, as well as an increase in transaction and loan losses by $40 million.</p>\n<p>A potential bright spot is Square's investment in DoorDash (DASH), which was a catalyst for Square's blowout Q4 2020 earnings. Based on a price of $168.5/share at the time of this writing, DoorDash's stock has appreciated 28.5% since Q1 end. That equates to a $65 million appreciation in Square's DoorDash equity ownership.</p>\n<p>Even still, netting out equity appreciation and Square's guided opex expansion, Square is guiding for roughly $110 million in additional Q2 spend. This is significant for a company that earned only $39 million last quarter, and Q1 was already benefiting from stimulus check disbursement and peak Bitcoin price and volatility.</p>\n<p>And that brings us to Bitcoin, of which Square owns 8,027 coins.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin's price at the conclusion of Q1 (March 31, 2021) was $58,724. At the time of this writing, one Bitcoin is valued at $32,270, or a 45% drop from the prior quarter.</p>\n<p><b>This is a loss of $259 million on Bitcoin alone in Q2, 2021.</b></p>\n<p>Gulp. All in, these costs will result in an estimated $370 million drag on Square's Q2 earnings. Despite these facts, consensus estimates for Square indicate the investment community believes Square will be<i>profitable</i>this quarter, with 86% earnings revisions up over the past three months. I would be shocked if Square turned a profit this next quarter.</p>\n<p>Accordingly, if you are considering a position in Square, this might be a good indication to wait on the sidelines and see how the next earnings call plays out. As a long term Square shareholder I will continue to hold, as none of these issues impacts my long term bullish stance on Square. I believe Bitcoin will recover over the balance of 2021, and Square's investments in product development and talent acquisition are necessary for the battle ahead with legacy banks.</p>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>The holy grail of the fintech space is low customer acquisition cost. Dorsey’s mastery of viral social media advertising generating low CAC's has been a primary catalyst of Square’s titanic growth rates. Square is just beginning to combine and integrate Cash App and Seller, which will manifest as increased user LTV and strengthening network effects.</p>\n<p>Between Square cross-selling Cash App and Seller, solidifying a banking presence with Square banking and the development and implementation of much-needed crypto services, Square will be the apex presence in the fintech space, with no natural predators. I believe this not only possible, but likely. As the future fintech king, Square has a vast ocean of opportunity ahead, because in the multi-trillion financial services space, winner takes most.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: Winner Takes Most</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: Winner Takes Most\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 17:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435869-square-winner-takes-most><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nArguably the most important fintech metric is customer acquisition cost (CAC). Square’s mastery of viral marketing results in the lowest CAC in the digital wallet space. This is a moat.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435869-square-winner-takes-most\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435869-square-winner-takes-most","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1188931868","content_text":"Summary\n\nArguably the most important fintech metric is customer acquisition cost (CAC). Square’s mastery of viral marketing results in the lowest CAC in the digital wallet space. This is a moat.\nSquare is building massive ecosystems in Cash App and Seller that are just beginning to overlap, which results in massive cross-selling opportunities and network effects.\nSquare banking is a major catalyst that has not received sufficient attention from analysts or investors.\nSquare has spent an entire year building as-of-yet unannounced Square Checking and Square Banking products. This is a shot across the bow at incumbent banks, and indicates Square is ready for a higher level of fintech warfare.\nSquare’s future relationship with crypto remains undercooked, and Dorsey’s overfocus on Bitcoin to the exclusion of alternative coins is an uncommon mistake.\n\nSquare's Investment Thesis\nWhen I begin researching a company for an article, I always start with the CEO. For as much as I know about balance sheets and technical analysis, it is the CEO that I am most critical and analytical about.\nThis is reflected in the types of companies I invest in and write about. Opendoor (OPEN), SoFi (SOFI), Zillow (Z) and Palantir (PLTR) are each led by visionary CEO’s, with colorful histories who make massive contributions to their industries. In my opinion, the story behind these disruptive companies and the CEOs who lead them can inform investment decisions as surely as an earnings report.\nWriting this article began no differently. Jack Dorsey, the $15 Billion dollar man who leads both Square (SQ) and Twitter (TWTR), is one of Wall Street’s biggest eccentricities. He has a penchant for meditating, facial hair, intermittent fasting, 80+ minute morning walks and wields an invisible armor that has allowed him to endure a decade of investors ranting he over-focuses on Square to the detriment of Twitter (sorry Twitter longs).\nToday, we will dive into Square – its competitive advantages over neo-banking peers and incumbents alike, Square's banking opportunity, as well as an update on Square’s cryptocurrency initiatives. Square is the best positioned company in the digital wallet space, and Jack's advertising expertise gained by founding and running Twitter has allowed Square to deploy viral marketing campaigns to fuel absurd growth in Cash App. Cash App's success is rivaled only by Square's Seller ecosystem, and these two businesses are just beginning to combine, interact and compound.\nWe're going to talk about all of this here. But first, I want to share a story about how a young Square, in its first years as a company, suffered a direct Amazon (AMZN) salvo and somehow emerged stronger.\nHow Square Survived An Amazon Siege\nBookstores, brick and mortal retail, supermarkets, meal-kits, enterprise cloud, the list of industries Amazon has bled out and internalized stretches on.\nAmazon has earned the moniker, “The Death Star.”Bought and paid for it. Over the past two decades no other company has so pervasively and efficiently disrupted legacy industries.\nAs a brief anecdote, in his early days at Amazon, CEO and founder Jeff Bezos was always searching for ways to eliminate company overhead. In his mind, the less Amazon spent on operations, the more savings could be passed on to Amazon customers.\nIn this vein, instead of purchasing a fancy desk for his office, Bezos built his own out of a recycled door and some two by fours. This practice caught on, and Amazon's employees participated broadly by building their own desks out of wooden doors.\nThe wooden door initiative served two purposes: 1) it was a cultural commitment to humility, from the top down, and 2) it emphasized the importance of spending money only on initiatives that improve the customer experience.\nThere's a picture of Bezos working away on his door deskhere. I’m tempted to frame this photograph, and I probably would if my fiancé would let me. Just confirmed, she says no. But I love this combined concept of customer obsession and frugality.\nFrom a capital allocation, leadership, and customer-centric perspective, it’s easy to look back now and recognize how Amazon became the goliath it is today. Bezos may not look it, but he is a ruthless, patient CEO whose basilisk gaze you pray doesn’t fall on your industry.\nSo when Amazon turned its cannons on a private, relatively small payment processing company named Square in 2014, you didn’t have to be a rocket scientist to know who would be left standing after the dust settled.\nBut if you assumed it would be Amazon, you would have been wrong.\n“Amazon Register” was built to kill Square. It undercut Square’s pricing by 30% and offered live customer service (which Square did not have). Even by Square co-founderJim McKelvey’s own admission, Amazon’s product worked better than Square’s ‘dongle’ did (I hate that word as much as you do and I promise to not use it again).\nBut Square survived. Thrived in fact. Square continued to execute along the same playbook, launched new features like Square Capital to the innovation stack, and grew roughly 10% week over week that year. Amazon, for all its strength, could not compete with Square in offerings, and small businesses were understandably skeptical about partnering with Amazon.\nAfter the year-long siege, on October 30, 2015, Amazon gracefully bowed out, announcing they were shuttering Amazon Register. When the hardware was officially discontinued in early 2016, Amazon mailed a white Square card reader to each of its business customers.\nAnd the rest is history.\nSince Square’s IPO in 2015, the company has continued to fend off fearsome competitors such as Intuit (INTU), PayPal (PYPL), and Shopify (SHOP), not to mention the largest banking systems in the world. Square has ridden a wave of timely and engaging financial innovations to a market cap of $107 Billion at the time of this writing. Cash App’s growth has been an absolute rocket ship, and Dorsey is delivering on the long term vision of connecting Seller and Cash App to one, unified ecosystem.\nSquare’s Moat: Customer Acquisition Cost\nIn the banking space, the company that optimizes lifetime value [LTV] vs customer acquisition cost [CAC] is the company that wins.\nRead that again, write it down, bold it and underline it.\nThis is not supernatural. Behind the B-school terminology is a basic principle of unit economics: make more from a customer than it costs to acquire them, and do it better than competitors.\nOf all the participants in the banking ecosystem, I believe Square has the lowest customer acquisition costs. This is a major part of the Dorsey value proposition, and misunderstood.\nAs founder and CEO of both Square and Twitter, Dorsey has been able to leverage his incredibly nuanced understanding of viral communication to inform viral marketing. Starting in 2017, Twitter mediated campaigns like #CashAppFriday, in which Square offers thousands of dollars to Twitter users who post their Cash App handle, has drawn massive numbers of comments, retweets and Cash App downloads. Partnerships with engaging content developers like the Joe Rogan Experience, Lex Fridmen, Burger King, Travis Scott and Lil B have continued to drive brand awareness. This brand awareness is critical, especially in a crowded digital banking space.According to this study, 82% of app or internet searchers choose a familiar brand for the first click.\nAs an example of viral and opportunistic marketing, in 2018 a prominent content creator on TikTok, “Shiggy” released a SoundCloud song about Cash App. After striking a sponsorship deal with Shiggy in 2019, the Cash App marketing team edited a shorter version of the single, and reached out to TikTok influencers with the below message:\n\n Create a TikTok with your best interpretation of the catchy song in everyday situations. And use hashtag #CashAppThatMoney.\n\nSource:Business Insider\nTo date, the Shiggy Cash App song has beenused in 9,138 videos. Prominent TikTok influencers such as Addison Rae (81+ million followers) have leveraged their massive platforms to drive hundreds of millions of views.\nLook at the below tweet I found from Cash App on May 7thof this year. By leveraging Cash App’s 1.2 million Twitter followers, $5k in marketing spend and goodwill resulted in 17.4k comments and 26.7k retweets. Those retweets create a reverberation in the Twitter ecosystem and result in a geometric increase in captive eyeballs. Now I am not a TikTok'er and I started a Twitter account within the past month, but it's important to appreciate Square's masterful use of these millennial and Gen Z driven platforms. Assuming roughly one in 50 retweeting individuals downloads CashApp, Square’s CAC is < $10 dollars.\n\nSource:CashApp Twitter\nThe takehome point from this type of marketing? Cash App is able to climb a more vertical slope of user acquisition at lower cost than challenger and incumbent banks alike.\nARK Invest estimatesincumbent banks spend an average of $925 dollars on customer acquisition. On Square’s most recent earning’s call, management confirmed their CAC was less than $5 dollars. Said another way, Square’s marketing and customer acquisition is 18,500% higher than your retail bank.\nSo how has Square flown under the radar of the massive U.S. banking industry?\nSquare’s strategy to largely target unbanked or “under-banked” individuals allowed them to build a platform without drawing the attention of Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). But Square is now one of the top ten largest ‘banks’ in the United States by market cap, and is expanding its total addressable market to those who are already clients of traditional banks.\nThis strategy of finding an underserved population, providing value to those customers, then broadening offerings and selling upmarket is in Square’s DNA. They followed the same playbook on the Seller side, initially targeting small businesses doing less than $100k in GMV, but today Square's fastest growing segment is mid- to large-size businesses.\nSquare’s peer Venmo cannot flex the same marketing efficiencies as Cash App. Cash App continues to hold the crown as the most downloaded finance application on Apple’s App Store (AAPL) as well as Google Play Store (GOOG), more popular than Venmo, PayPal Cash, and Robinhood (RBNHD). Furthermore, Square has a full 10X more followers than Venmo on Twitter. These advantages manifest as Square enjoying a healthy gap over Venmo in search as well.\n\nSource:Similarweb\n\nSource: I made this with help fromGoogle Trends\nPerhaps most importantly, although Venmo has more monthly active users (MAU’s), Square is better atmonetizingthese users.According to RBC Capital analyst DanielPerlin, Venmo garners roughly $12 from each MAU, whereas Cash App brings in $54. And due to industry low CAC, Cash App gets the extra benefit of being more profitable as well.\nWhile there is much more that can be said about Square and PayPal’s competition in the challenger banking space, it is this customer acquisition and long term value that underlies why I prefer holding shares of Square over PayPal.\nSquare is just doing the important things better than Venmo. Part of this is Dorsey's social media advantages, but I believe much if it has to do with the fact that Venmo was acquired by PayPal, whereas Square remains independent. The innovative connective tissue which once held Venmo together and fostered bold ideas and big bets was absorbed into the massive PayPal machine, and lost.\nAs a SoFi shareholder and bull, I was disappointed to learn in my research that SoFi has been unable thus far to creatively turn its Twitter presence into a customer acquisition engine. Despite 120k+ followers, the SoFi Twitter page has relatively low engagement and no promotional activities reminiscent of #CashAppFriday. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto coincidentally was formerly COO of Twitter when #CashAppFriday first launched, and I believe he will be able to leverage this experience into a more engaging social media presence. Fortunately for SoFi, their CAC's are low (~$40) with much higher LTV's than Cash App as of now (roughly double, close to $2,000 with cross selling into lending).\nSquare Financial Services: A Bank For All Mankind\nOn March 1, 2021, Square announced its banking service had begun operations after completing the charter approval process with the FDIC. This is a massive catalyst for Square’s business, and positions them squarely against the glacially slow incumbent banks.\nI recently wrote adeep dive on SoFi(SOFI), which is also pursuing a bank charter, and discussed the massive benefits these fintech companies inherit by building banking infrastructure. With this banking platform, Square will be able to make loans using deposits on its platform, originate loans to small businesses, and improve profitability.\nAbout a month ago, an iOS developer namedSteve Moser discovered codeon a Square software update revealing new products “Square Checking” and “Square Savings.” Based on the code, Square is planning to offer 0.5% interest rates for its savings accounts through 2021, a full 8+ times higher than thenational savings account average.\nSquare's banking play is a continuation of the playbook that led them to purchase Credit Karma’s tax preparation business in 2020. At the time of the acquisition, roughly 2 million Americans used Karma to file returns, with an average refund of $2k. Those tax returns were then deposited in Cash App accounts, where fintech magic happens. Higher account deposits can be loaned out, drive increased transaction volume, and ultimately elevate the LTV of the user.\nSoFi is doing something similar with its $3k account minimums for SoFi IPO Invest, and Square’s banking venture has the opportunity to both elevate account balances and steal additional customers from incumbent banks.\nAnd the incumbent banks are terrified. See what Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and perhaps the most famous banker in the world has said about Square over the years.\n\n What does the small business want? They wanted to process cash and checks and debit on the same machine. We didn’t give them that opportunity. Square did.\n\nJamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan, Investor Day, 2019\nAnd more recently when asked if JPM should be scared of challenger banks like Square:\n\n Absolutely we should be scared s---less about that. We’ve just got to get quicker, better, faster.\n\nJamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan, Investor Day, January, 2021\nMost importantly, adding banking services multiplies the LTV of Square's customers, and is a major step towards Cash App becoming a financial super app. The single biggest money maker for individual banking customers is checking and savings accounts. According to an ARK Invest white paper, LTV per retail banking customer is roughly $3,600, of which a full 25%, or $900 is checking and savings accounts.\n\nSource: ARK Invest, with annotations from me:Cash App vs Venmo\nYou can breathlessly hype Square's Bitcoin opportunities and wax poetic about Cash App's booming Bitcoin revenue, but the meat and potatoes is here, right in front of us: Square banking. The weapon Square will use to dethrone the incumbent banks is slowly being drawn from its sheath.\nJack Dorsey's Bitcoin Obsession\nFor those of you who don't follow Dorsey on Twitter or read updates about the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) 2021 Convention, believe me when I say Jack isconvictedabout the role Bitcoin will play in the Internet’s future.\n\n If I were not at Square or Twitter, I would be working on bitcoin. If bitcoin needed more help than Square or Twitter, I would leave them for bitcoin.\n\nJack Dorsey, CEO Square, CEO Twitter,Bitcoin 2021 Conference\nAt the conference Dorsey announced Square is considering releasing a hardware Bitcoin wallet. For those unfamiliar, when you purchase cryptocurrency on an exchange, the vast majority of the time it is not actuallyyours, but is in fact an IOU. If you’ve heard the expression, “Not your keys, not your coins,” this is referring directly to this issue. If you don’t have a hardware wallet with a password only you have access to, then the coins don’t truly belong to you.\nRegarding Square's involvement inBitcoin hardware wallets, color me unimpressed. I was surprised to see Square’s stock pop on that news. I can’t really see a situation where a company doing $20+ Billion a year in sales like Square gets meaningful top or bottom line contribution from a glorified flash drive. It’s just not going to move the needle.\nTo be honest, cryptocurrency is the biggest potential blind spot I see right now in Dorsey’s execution. Don’t get me wrong, as a Square shareholder I willgladly accept a1,047% increase year over year in Bitcoin revenue to $3.51 B as of Q1 2021. But Dorsey refusing to allow any other coins on the Cash App platform is, in my opinion, the wrong choice for Square and cryptocurrency in general. I have already heard several friends comment they see no role for Cash App because its “crypto features” only allow for Bitcoin trading.\n“That’s why we don’t deal with any other ‘currencies’ or ‘coins’ because we’re so focused on making bitcoin the native currency for the internet,”\n-Jack Dorsey, CEO Square\nEffectively, Dorsey is limiting features for Square’s Cash App users to focus all attention on Bitcoin. But that’s not really how cryptocurrency works – over the past several years the market share of Bitcoin has declined slightly as new platforms have generated interest and ease of investing in alternative coins. Diversity of coin options coincided with Bitcoin reaching its highest market capitalization of all time. I believe there is space for more than one coin in the future, and am personally invested in Ethereum (ETH-USD) due to the utility it offers as the nexus of Internet 3.0.\nI would love to see Dorsey developing revenue-driving crypto services such as decentralized finance for Square. I said this for SoFi, and I will say it again for Square: a staking system, by which users are granted upsize interest for holding Bitcoin in their Cash App, for example, would dramatically elevate Cash App’s value proposition. This is something for all challenger banks to explore and invest in, and it is a game changer.\nAll that said, Square has a history of surprising analysts and investors with clever solutions that delight customers. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency landscapeneedsinnovation and development, and Square is well capitalized in cash and intellect to address this issue.\nSquare's Near Term Risks\nDespite how positive I feel about Square's long-term positioning in the fintech space, I would be remiss if I did not alert you to several considerable near term risks. Square is hurtling towards challenging 2020 comps, with Q2 2020 being the first quarter of government disbursement checks. While I expect Square to post excellent Seller and Cash App numbers, growth will inherently moderate. Furthermore, Cash App benefited from Robinhood's well-publicized meltdown in Q1, as retail investors searched for more transparent and reliable trading platforms. This resulted in a pull-forward of user growth, and I do not believe this is sustainable or reflective of Cash App's long term user growth rates.\nFurthermore, Square's Q1 2021 shareholder letter was chock full of new operating expense forecasts for Q2. Square promised stock based compensation would rise materially in Q2 as new hirings occurred (in Q1 was $118 million), an increase in product development and G&A by $120 million, as well as an increase in transaction and loan losses by $40 million.\nA potential bright spot is Square's investment in DoorDash (DASH), which was a catalyst for Square's blowout Q4 2020 earnings. Based on a price of $168.5/share at the time of this writing, DoorDash's stock has appreciated 28.5% since Q1 end. That equates to a $65 million appreciation in Square's DoorDash equity ownership.\nEven still, netting out equity appreciation and Square's guided opex expansion, Square is guiding for roughly $110 million in additional Q2 spend. This is significant for a company that earned only $39 million last quarter, and Q1 was already benefiting from stimulus check disbursement and peak Bitcoin price and volatility.\nAnd that brings us to Bitcoin, of which Square owns 8,027 coins.\nBitcoin's price at the conclusion of Q1 (March 31, 2021) was $58,724. At the time of this writing, one Bitcoin is valued at $32,270, or a 45% drop from the prior quarter.\nThis is a loss of $259 million on Bitcoin alone in Q2, 2021.\nGulp. All in, these costs will result in an estimated $370 million drag on Square's Q2 earnings. Despite these facts, consensus estimates for Square indicate the investment community believes Square will beprofitablethis quarter, with 86% earnings revisions up over the past three months. I would be shocked if Square turned a profit this next quarter.\nAccordingly, if you are considering a position in Square, this might be a good indication to wait on the sidelines and see how the next earnings call plays out. As a long term Square shareholder I will continue to hold, as none of these issues impacts my long term bullish stance on Square. I believe Bitcoin will recover over the balance of 2021, and Square's investments in product development and talent acquisition are necessary for the battle ahead with legacy banks.\nConcluding Thoughts\nThe holy grail of the fintech space is low customer acquisition cost. Dorsey’s mastery of viral social media advertising generating low CAC's has been a primary catalyst of Square’s titanic growth rates. Square is just beginning to combine and integrate Cash App and Seller, which will manifest as increased user LTV and strengthening network effects.\nBetween Square cross-selling Cash App and Seller, solidifying a banking presence with Square banking and the development and implementation of much-needed crypto services, Square will be the apex presence in the fintech space, with no natural predators. I believe this not only possible, but likely. As the future fintech king, Square has a vast ocean of opportunity ahead, because in the multi-trillion financial services space, winner takes most.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120936670,"gmtCreate":1624291474390,"gmtModify":1703832740689,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","listText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","text":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120936670","repostId":"1181010712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181010712","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181010712?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181010712","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:","content":"<blockquote>\n NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today’s write-up about<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.</p>\n<p>Investors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.</p>\n<p>My beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) stock price range makes more sense.</p>\n<p>Today I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.</p>\n<p>This doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.</p>\n<p>When great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second and<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.</p>\n<p><b>Relative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive</b></p>\n<p>When I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times&nbsp;more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.</p>\n<p>If you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.</p>\n<p>There is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.</p>\n<p>When that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.</p>\n<p>The reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.</p>\n<p>I know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.</p>\n<p>Circling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.</p>\n<p>Investors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.</p>\n<p><b>There Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd18b9d27a6de0abcf734e0f652d6e3\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"826\">After a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.</p>\n<p>The stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.</p>\n<p>If I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.</p>\n<p>Committing to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.</p>\n<p>I will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181010712","content_text":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.\nInvestors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.\nMy beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) stock price range makes more sense.\nToday I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.\nThis doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.\nWhen great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second andIntel(NASDAQ:INTC) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.\nRelative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive\nWhen I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.\nIf you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.\nThere is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.\nWhen that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.\nThe reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.\nI know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.\nCircling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.\nInvestors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.\nThere Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys\nAfter a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.\nThe stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.\nIf I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.\nCommitting to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.\nI will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120997427,"gmtCreate":1624291313169,"gmtModify":1703832732523,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","listText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","text":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120997427","repostId":"2145084680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145084680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145084680?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145084680","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time","content":"<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.</p>\n<p>The investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).</p>\n<p>\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104dbda916e034fdd5094bb2a80d2cf1\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Households continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs</p>\n<p>Renewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.</p>\n<p>The markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> and Goldman Sachs.</p>\n<p>Last week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.</p>\n<p>Some Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> earlier in the year.</p>\n<p>\"Although macro influence over S&amp;P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓","GME":"游戏驿站","CLNE":"Clean Energy Fuels Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","GS":"高盛","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2145084680","content_text":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.\nIn one of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).\n\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.\nTo be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.\nHouseholds continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs\nRenewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.\nThe markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Goldman Sachs.\nLast week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.\nSome Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the one earlier in the year.\n\"Although macro influence over S&P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120996124,"gmtCreate":1624291186868,"gmtModify":1703832725874,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","listText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","text":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120996124","repostId":"1122985599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122985599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624279556,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122985599?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Citi says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122985599","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 ","content":"<p>Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&amp;P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.</p>\n<p>That's following a down week where Information Technology(NYSEARCA:XLK)was the only S&amp;P sector in the green.</p>\n<p>And growth stocks(NYSEARCA:IVW)will enjoy a better environment, even if 10-year Treasury yield(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT)trends up to 2%, Citi says.</p>\n<p>\"Our lead indicator model has been changing and is now showing a better trend for 1H22 relative outperformance after signaling a pro-value tilt for a couple of years,\" strategists led by Tobias Levkovich write in a note today. \"This statistical analysis reviews various economic inputs and back-tests their predictive power; it includes a measure of capacity utilization and consumer confidence amongst other factors, and is currently suggesting investors will need to change portfolio positions sometime in 4Q21 towards growth names.\"</p>\n<p>Easing of supply chain bottlenecks could lessen worries about sharply rising bond yields, which could take a lot of the pressure off concerns of valuation for higher-growth names, Levkovich adds.</p>\n<p>And the rise in prices for value and cyclicals stocks(NYSEARCA:IVE)increases the possibility of results disappointing.</p>\n<p>\"Embedded in share price movement is a set of changing forecasts for sales, orders&nbsp;profitability, etc., and we suspect that companies may be hard pressed to deliver blowout numbers, which could drag names lower,\" he adds \"Our sense is that the need to provide stronger results will be around the fourth quarter leading into 1Q22.\"</p>\n<p>\"Generally speaking, fund managers are not big value fans, but participated in the names as they gained price momentum. Hence, the conviction to stay with the trade is not particularly deep, in our opinion, leading to the willingness to shift back to the growth style almost at every opportunity.\"</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, the recent dip in Treasury yields from March highs seems to have generated some of the relative performance switch over the past couple of months along with a stronger dollar.\"</p>\n<p>Seeking Alpha contributor Jacob Kilby argued earlier this month that thesidelining of Big Tech is only temporary.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2d0783ea029b79bf18711ab8c8e2b5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citi says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCiti says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.\nThat's following a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1122985599","content_text":"Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.\nThat's following a down week where Information Technology(NYSEARCA:XLK)was the only S&P sector in the green.\nAnd growth stocks(NYSEARCA:IVW)will enjoy a better environment, even if 10-year Treasury yield(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT)trends up to 2%, Citi says.\n\"Our lead indicator model has been changing and is now showing a better trend for 1H22 relative outperformance after signaling a pro-value tilt for a couple of years,\" strategists led by Tobias Levkovich write in a note today. \"This statistical analysis reviews various economic inputs and back-tests their predictive power; it includes a measure of capacity utilization and consumer confidence amongst other factors, and is currently suggesting investors will need to change portfolio positions sometime in 4Q21 towards growth names.\"\nEasing of supply chain bottlenecks could lessen worries about sharply rising bond yields, which could take a lot of the pressure off concerns of valuation for higher-growth names, Levkovich adds.\nAnd the rise in prices for value and cyclicals stocks(NYSEARCA:IVE)increases the possibility of results disappointing.\n\"Embedded in share price movement is a set of changing forecasts for sales, orders profitability, etc., and we suspect that companies may be hard pressed to deliver blowout numbers, which could drag names lower,\" he adds \"Our sense is that the need to provide stronger results will be around the fourth quarter leading into 1Q22.\"\n\"Generally speaking, fund managers are not big value fans, but participated in the names as they gained price momentum. Hence, the conviction to stay with the trade is not particularly deep, in our opinion, leading to the willingness to shift back to the growth style almost at every opportunity.\"\n\"Indeed, the recent dip in Treasury yields from March highs seems to have generated some of the relative performance switch over the past couple of months along with a stronger dollar.\"\nSeeking Alpha contributor Jacob Kilby argued earlier this month that thesidelining of Big Tech is only temporary.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167751985,"gmtCreate":1624285766947,"gmtModify":1703832524289,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","listText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","text":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167751985","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167729633,"gmtCreate":1624285420322,"gmtModify":1703832509076,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","listText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","text":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167729633","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145084835","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624280460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145084835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145084835","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If analysts are correct, these high-flying stocks will fizzle out over the next year.","content":"<p>Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the average annual total return for the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> since 1980, including dividends, is north of 11%.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, we see this optimism readily apparent in Wall Street's ratings on stocks. According to <b>FactSet</b>, more than half of all stocks carry a consensus buy rating, 38% have the equivalent of a hold rating, and just 7% are rated as sells. Yet, history shows that far more than 7% of stocks will eventually head lower.</p>\n<p>Based on Wall Street's consensus price targets, the following five ultra-popular stocks are all expected to lose value over the coming 12 months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04ade705354c4825038c4dfcd0187d9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Palantir Technologies: Implied downside of 12%</h3>\n<p>Since its direct listing in late September 2020, data-mining company <b>Palantir Technologies</b> (NYSE:PLTR) has been a favorite among growth and retail investors. But if Wall Street's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year consensus price target proves accurate, Palantir will head in reverse by up to 12%.</p>\n<p>The likeliest reason Wall Street is tempering expectations on Palantir is valuation. Specifically, Palantir ended June 17 with a market cap of nearly $48 billion, but is on track to bring in perhaps $1.5 billion in full-year sales in 2021. That's a multiple of about 32 times sales. Even if Palantir continues to grow its top-line at 30% annually, it could take years for this price-to-sales multiple to come down to anywhere close to the average for cloud stocks.</p>\n<p>Another possible concern is the growth potential for its government-focused Gotham platform. Big government contract wins in the U.S. have been primarily responsible for Palantir's exceptional growth rate. However, there remains an outside chance that President Joe Biden may curb funding to some of the federal agencies that employ Palantir's services.</p>\n<p>Over the long run, I'm optimistic and believe Palantir's platform is unlike anything else available. But tempering near-term expectations given its valuation premium may be warranted.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38605bee8e62f3e8aa414fa24278e7e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Moderna: Implied downside of 11%</h3>\n<p>Biotech stock <b>Moderna</b> (NASDAQ:MRNA) is arguably the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of only three drugmakers to currently have their COVID-19 vaccine approved on an emergency-use authorization (EUA) basis in the United States. But if Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is correct, it's stock is also on its way to a double-digit decline.</p>\n<p>Why the lack of love from Wall Street? The answer looks to be analysts looking to the future. While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is a mainstay in the U.S., and it's likely to play a clear role in other markets, time might prove the company's enemy. Over time, new vaccines are expected to come onto the scene, which'll eat away at Moderna's potential pool of patients.</p>\n<p>The other worry is that no one is exactly certain how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last. If it's a year, Moderna is unlikely to be the only drugmaker supplying booster shots. Meanwhile, if it's longer than a year, it means reduced sales opportunities for the company.</p>\n<p>Based solely on Wall Street's earnings per share consensus in 2021 and 2022, Moderna appears reasonably priced. But with the company staring down a potentially significant haircut in revenue next year as new drugmakers enter the space, caution is advised.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07841e6a8173146a0fbfddf95a0f1ccb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>GameStop: Implied downside of 71%</h3>\n<p>This will probably come as a shock to no one, but Reddit favorite <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME) is fully expected to fall flat on its face. Even though Wall Street's consensus price target for the company has quintupled in recent months, it <i>still</i> implies up to 71% downside over the next year.</p>\n<p>The biggest issue for GameStop is that its valuation has completely detached from its underlying fundamentals. While it's not uncommon for stocks to trade on emotion for short periods of time, operating performance is what always dictates the long-term movement in the share price of a stock. When it comes to operating performance, GameStop has been a dud.</p>\n<p>Although the company's first-quarter fiscal results highlighted a 25% net sales increase from the prior-year period, total sales for the company have been falling precipitously for years. That's because video game retailer GameStop recognized the shift to digital gaming too late, and it's now stuck with its massive portfolio of brick-and-mortar gaming stores. Even though e-commerce sales have been a bright spot for the company, slashing costs and closing stores remains its No. 1 priority.</p>\n<p>With sufficient cash, bankruptcy isn't a concern for GameStop. But without any true top-line growth and the company still losing money, it's an impossible sell at its current price tag.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff785aa0040a5565d474390f58b47a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Ocugen: Implied downside of 18%</h3>\n<p>Volatile clinical-stage biotech stock <b>Ocugen</b> (NASDAQ:OCGN) may also be in for an unpleasant next 12 months. The company behind an experimental COVID-19 vaccine (Covaxin) and a trio of internally developed eye-blindness candidates is expected to shed 18% of its value, if Wall Street's consensus price target is correct.</p>\n<p>Arguably the biggest issue for Ocugen is the clinical update the company issued on June 10 concerning Covaxin. Even though partner Bharat Biotech led a large clinical study in India that yielded an overall efficacy of 78%, along with 100% efficacy in preventing severe forms of COVID-19, Ocugen announced on June 10 that it would forgo seeking an EUA in the U.S. and would instead file for a biologics license application. In other words, Ocugen's path to a quick emergency approval in the U.S. just flew out the window.</p>\n<p>What's more, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's requested additional information and data on Covaxin. This is a fancy of saying that Ocugen will very likely have to run a clinical study in the U.S. prior to submitting Covaxin for approval. That means added costs and an even longer wait before Ocugen has a chance to penetrate the lucrative U.S. market.</p>\n<p>Though it's impossible to predict how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last, Ocugen's chances of being a significant player in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine space are dwindling.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f6037829ea3fb0ae1cae0b95d8d11e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>NVIDIA: Implied downside of 3%</h3>\n<p>Don't adjust your computer, laptop, or smartphone screens -- that really says <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA). Following its incredible run higher (NVIDIA has doubled over the past year), graphics processing unit giant NVIDIA closed 3% above Wall Street's consensus price target, as of June 17.</p>\n<p>One reason for tempered expectations at this point has to be valuation. Even with NVIDIA crushing expectations and seeing strong PC gaming demand, sales growth is expected to slow from an estimated 49% in fiscal 2022 to a high single digit percentage in each of the next two fiscal years. In fact, the company closed at nearly 20 times projected sales for the current fiscal year. That's a bit optimistic given an expected sales growth slowdown.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the other reason Wall Street expects NVIDIA to go sideways is the company's cryptocurrency mining chip segment. While sales of crypto chips could hit $400 million in the current quarter, demand is entirely dependent on the hype surrounding digital currencies and the favorability of technical charts. Crypto is just as well known for its long bear markets as it is for the big gains it's delivered over the past decade. If another lull strikes, a fast-growing ancillary segment for NVIDA could easily become a drag.</p>\n<p>For what it's worth, I see no fundamental reasons to sell NVIDIA if you're already a long-term shareholder. But if you're on the outside looking in, I don't exactly see $746 as an attractive entry point, either.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 21:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","OCGN":"Ocugen","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145084835","content_text":"Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the average annual total return for the benchmark S&P 500 since 1980, including dividends, is north of 11%.\nNot surprisingly, we see this optimism readily apparent in Wall Street's ratings on stocks. According to FactSet, more than half of all stocks carry a consensus buy rating, 38% have the equivalent of a hold rating, and just 7% are rated as sells. Yet, history shows that far more than 7% of stocks will eventually head lower.\nBased on Wall Street's consensus price targets, the following five ultra-popular stocks are all expected to lose value over the coming 12 months.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nPalantir Technologies: Implied downside of 12%\nSince its direct listing in late September 2020, data-mining company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has been a favorite among growth and retail investors. But if Wall Street's one-year consensus price target proves accurate, Palantir will head in reverse by up to 12%.\nThe likeliest reason Wall Street is tempering expectations on Palantir is valuation. Specifically, Palantir ended June 17 with a market cap of nearly $48 billion, but is on track to bring in perhaps $1.5 billion in full-year sales in 2021. That's a multiple of about 32 times sales. Even if Palantir continues to grow its top-line at 30% annually, it could take years for this price-to-sales multiple to come down to anywhere close to the average for cloud stocks.\nAnother possible concern is the growth potential for its government-focused Gotham platform. Big government contract wins in the U.S. have been primarily responsible for Palantir's exceptional growth rate. However, there remains an outside chance that President Joe Biden may curb funding to some of the federal agencies that employ Palantir's services.\nOver the long run, I'm optimistic and believe Palantir's platform is unlike anything else available. But tempering near-term expectations given its valuation premium may be warranted.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nModerna: Implied downside of 11%\nBiotech stock Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is arguably the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It's one of only three drugmakers to currently have their COVID-19 vaccine approved on an emergency-use authorization (EUA) basis in the United States. But if Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is correct, it's stock is also on its way to a double-digit decline.\nWhy the lack of love from Wall Street? The answer looks to be analysts looking to the future. While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is a mainstay in the U.S., and it's likely to play a clear role in other markets, time might prove the company's enemy. Over time, new vaccines are expected to come onto the scene, which'll eat away at Moderna's potential pool of patients.\nThe other worry is that no one is exactly certain how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last. If it's a year, Moderna is unlikely to be the only drugmaker supplying booster shots. Meanwhile, if it's longer than a year, it means reduced sales opportunities for the company.\nBased solely on Wall Street's earnings per share consensus in 2021 and 2022, Moderna appears reasonably priced. But with the company staring down a potentially significant haircut in revenue next year as new drugmakers enter the space, caution is advised.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nGameStop: Implied downside of 71%\nThis will probably come as a shock to no one, but Reddit favorite GameStop (NYSE:GME) is fully expected to fall flat on its face. Even though Wall Street's consensus price target for the company has quintupled in recent months, it still implies up to 71% downside over the next year.\nThe biggest issue for GameStop is that its valuation has completely detached from its underlying fundamentals. While it's not uncommon for stocks to trade on emotion for short periods of time, operating performance is what always dictates the long-term movement in the share price of a stock. When it comes to operating performance, GameStop has been a dud.\nAlthough the company's first-quarter fiscal results highlighted a 25% net sales increase from the prior-year period, total sales for the company have been falling precipitously for years. That's because video game retailer GameStop recognized the shift to digital gaming too late, and it's now stuck with its massive portfolio of brick-and-mortar gaming stores. Even though e-commerce sales have been a bright spot for the company, slashing costs and closing stores remains its No. 1 priority.\nWith sufficient cash, bankruptcy isn't a concern for GameStop. But without any true top-line growth and the company still losing money, it's an impossible sell at its current price tag.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nOcugen: Implied downside of 18%\nVolatile clinical-stage biotech stock Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) may also be in for an unpleasant next 12 months. The company behind an experimental COVID-19 vaccine (Covaxin) and a trio of internally developed eye-blindness candidates is expected to shed 18% of its value, if Wall Street's consensus price target is correct.\nArguably the biggest issue for Ocugen is the clinical update the company issued on June 10 concerning Covaxin. Even though partner Bharat Biotech led a large clinical study in India that yielded an overall efficacy of 78%, along with 100% efficacy in preventing severe forms of COVID-19, Ocugen announced on June 10 that it would forgo seeking an EUA in the U.S. and would instead file for a biologics license application. In other words, Ocugen's path to a quick emergency approval in the U.S. just flew out the window.\nWhat's more, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's requested additional information and data on Covaxin. This is a fancy of saying that Ocugen will very likely have to run a clinical study in the U.S. prior to submitting Covaxin for approval. That means added costs and an even longer wait before Ocugen has a chance to penetrate the lucrative U.S. market.\nThough it's impossible to predict how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last, Ocugen's chances of being a significant player in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine space are dwindling.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA: Implied downside of 3%\nDon't adjust your computer, laptop, or smartphone screens -- that really says NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Following its incredible run higher (NVIDIA has doubled over the past year), graphics processing unit giant NVIDIA closed 3% above Wall Street's consensus price target, as of June 17.\nOne reason for tempered expectations at this point has to be valuation. Even with NVIDIA crushing expectations and seeing strong PC gaming demand, sales growth is expected to slow from an estimated 49% in fiscal 2022 to a high single digit percentage in each of the next two fiscal years. In fact, the company closed at nearly 20 times projected sales for the current fiscal year. That's a bit optimistic given an expected sales growth slowdown.\nPerhaps the other reason Wall Street expects NVIDIA to go sideways is the company's cryptocurrency mining chip segment. While sales of crypto chips could hit $400 million in the current quarter, demand is entirely dependent on the hype surrounding digital currencies and the favorability of technical charts. Crypto is just as well known for its long bear markets as it is for the big gains it's delivered over the past decade. If another lull strikes, a fast-growing ancillary segment for NVIDA could easily become a drag.\nFor what it's worth, I see no fundamental reasons to sell NVIDIA if you're already a long-term shareholder. But if you're on the outside looking in, I don't exactly see $746 as an attractive entry point, either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165913152,"gmtCreate":1624086181476,"gmtModify":1703828600324,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","listText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","text":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165913152","repostId":"1154782771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087558596707380","authorId":"4087558596707380","name":"MiloKiddo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087558596707380","authorIdStr":"4087558596707380"},"content":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?","text":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?","html":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162346428,"gmtCreate":1624036821364,"gmtModify":1703827417278,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","listText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","text":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162346428","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144077147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624025701,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144077147?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144077147","media":"Zacks","summary":"Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Elec","content":"<p><b>Roku, Inc. </b>ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.</p>\n<p>These models will be available in both HD and 4K UHD Resolution. The sizes for the smart TV will range from 32-65 inch.</p>\n<p>The TVs have been made available online at currys.co.uk. UK-based consumers can avail a discount voucher code of €20 following online registration.</p>\n<p>These TV models will be offering consumers automatic updates, customizable home screen, free and paid streaming, private listening through the free Roku mobile app, among other features.</p>\n<p>Starting at €229, TCL’s Roku TV models will offer streaming services like <b>Netflix</b> NFLX, Prime Video, <b>Walt Disney</b>’s DIS Disney+, <b>Apple</b>’s AAPL Apple TV+, NOW and others. These TV models also carry the Roku Channel, which offers 25000+ free movies and TV episodes.</p>\n<h3>Roku, Inc. Price and Consensus</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e50fe4d3bb710056cf8dc2ac53cd977\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>Roku, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Roku, Inc. Quote</span></p>\n<h3>Strong Content Lineup to Fend Off Competition</h3>\n<p>Expansion into the U.K. with the TCL partnership will boost Roku’s top-line growth. Apart from hardware enhancements, the company keeps innovating and adding new content to its portfolio to increase consumer engagements and attract consumers to its platform.</p>\n<p>For instance, Roku recently announced second season of Kevin Hart starrer <i>Die Hart</i>, named <i>Die Harter</i>. <i>Die Hart</i> is a comedy action series in which Kevin Hart plays a fictionalized version of himself to land a life-changing role of an action hero.</p>\n<p>Also, earlier this month the company announced <i>Roku Recommends</i>, which is a weekly entertainment show. In this 15-minute show, Roku will help consumers find movies and shows that are trending on the platform or what to watch next on the platform.</p>\n<p>Further, Roku announced that it has entered into an agreement with Saban Films. Per this agreement, the Roku Channel will get streaming rights to movies released by Saban Films and a selection of Saban’s 2021 film slate will release exclusively on the Roku Channel for free.</p>\n<p>Markedly, Roku faces stiff competition from other companies that provide TV streaming devices including Apple TV, Google TV and Amazon.</p>\n<p>In April, Apple announced the launch of the next generation of Apple TV 4K. This next generation offers A12 Bionic chip that offers enhanced graphics performance, video decoding and audio processing. This improved picture quality provides enhanced consumer experience and increases consumer traction. Moreover, Google TV will be launched by TCL in the coming months.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Roku is riding on surge in premium subscription signups for the Roku Channel. Launch of third-party streaming channels including Peacock, Disney+ and HBO Max is aiding user growth.</p>\n<p>Moreover, streaming hours growth is likely to boost TV streaming advertising on Roku’s platform, driving advertising revenues in the near term for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. </p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 22:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.\nThese models will be available in both HD and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","ROKU":"Roku Inc","DIS":"迪士尼","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2144077147","content_text":"Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.\nThese models will be available in both HD and 4K UHD Resolution. The sizes for the smart TV will range from 32-65 inch.\nThe TVs have been made available online at currys.co.uk. UK-based consumers can avail a discount voucher code of €20 following online registration.\nThese TV models will be offering consumers automatic updates, customizable home screen, free and paid streaming, private listening through the free Roku mobile app, among other features.\nStarting at €229, TCL’s Roku TV models will offer streaming services like Netflix NFLX, Prime Video, Walt Disney’s DIS Disney+, Apple’s AAPL Apple TV+, NOW and others. These TV models also carry the Roku Channel, which offers 25000+ free movies and TV episodes.\nRoku, Inc. Price and Consensus\nRoku, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Roku, Inc. Quote\nStrong Content Lineup to Fend Off Competition\nExpansion into the U.K. with the TCL partnership will boost Roku’s top-line growth. Apart from hardware enhancements, the company keeps innovating and adding new content to its portfolio to increase consumer engagements and attract consumers to its platform.\nFor instance, Roku recently announced second season of Kevin Hart starrer Die Hart, named Die Harter. Die Hart is a comedy action series in which Kevin Hart plays a fictionalized version of himself to land a life-changing role of an action hero.\nAlso, earlier this month the company announced Roku Recommends, which is a weekly entertainment show. In this 15-minute show, Roku will help consumers find movies and shows that are trending on the platform or what to watch next on the platform.\nFurther, Roku announced that it has entered into an agreement with Saban Films. Per this agreement, the Roku Channel will get streaming rights to movies released by Saban Films and a selection of Saban’s 2021 film slate will release exclusively on the Roku Channel for free.\nMarkedly, Roku faces stiff competition from other companies that provide TV streaming devices including Apple TV, Google TV and Amazon.\nIn April, Apple announced the launch of the next generation of Apple TV 4K. This next generation offers A12 Bionic chip that offers enhanced graphics performance, video decoding and audio processing. This improved picture quality provides enhanced consumer experience and increases consumer traction. Moreover, Google TV will be launched by TCL in the coming months.\nNevertheless, Roku is riding on surge in premium subscription signups for the Roku Channel. Launch of third-party streaming channels including Peacock, Disney+ and HBO Max is aiding user growth.\nMoreover, streaming hours growth is likely to boost TV streaming advertising on Roku’s platform, driving advertising revenues in the near term for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162348426,"gmtCreate":1624036748065,"gmtModify":1703827416308,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162348426","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119296361?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p>\n<p>There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p>\n<p>After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p>\n<p>The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p>\n<p>Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p>\n<p>Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","C":"花旗","GS":"高盛","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":165913152,"gmtCreate":1624086181476,"gmtModify":1703828600324,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","listText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","text":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165913152","repostId":"1154782771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087558596707380","authorId":"4087558596707380","name":"MiloKiddo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087558596707380","authorIdStr":"4087558596707380"},"content":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?","text":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?","html":"How much do you consider a low enough dip to start buying?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126186899,"gmtCreate":1624547625311,"gmtModify":1703840112209,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","listText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","text":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126186899","repostId":"1167326019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167326019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624541460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167326019?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167326019","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market f","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167326019","content_text":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.\nThe broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.\nA broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.\nData out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.\nTraders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%\nBank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.\nDespite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.\n\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.\n\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167751985,"gmtCreate":1624285766947,"gmtModify":1703832524289,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","listText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","text":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167751985","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126189681,"gmtCreate":1624547509443,"gmtModify":1703840107181,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","listText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","text":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126189681","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121587593,"gmtCreate":1624478026212,"gmtModify":1703837850574,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","listText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","text":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121587593","repostId":"1115637073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115637073","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624413226,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115637073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bubble Expert Jeremy Grantham Addresses ‘Epic’ Equities Euphoria","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115637073","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"It’s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, and investors are wondering if another","content":"<p>It’s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, and investors are wondering if another one is on the way. With economic momentum slowing as the effects of fiscal stimulus wear off, it’s no surprise that equities seem to be fading, too. Meanwhile, labor shortages and stretched supply chains remain lingering issues, while inflation is starting to be passed on to consumers. It seems like this should be a risk-off environment. But retail traders appear to be the only investors having a good time. Does that mean we’re in a bubble and due for a pop?</p>\n<p>Jeremy Grantham, market historian and co-founder of the Boston investment firmGMO, debates the subject with Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers. His remarks have been edited and condensed.</p>\n<p>Robert Shiller, whom you’ve praised, compared the rise in speculative assets like Bitcoin and NFTs to the fad of Beanie Babies. But he declined to say that there’s a bubble in stocks. What elements of a bubble do you see in a stock market that crashed pretty hard just one year ago, and why would it crash again?</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: First, the Covid crash is quite distinct from a classic long bull market ending, as they usually do in a bubble and bust. As a sharp external effect, it was more like the 1987 technical crash caused by portfolio insurance: a short hit and a sharp recovery. Looking back, although they were painful at the time, they were mere blips on the longer-term buildup of confidence toward a market peak.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c3a701908cefae1e6731747c1dee45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market. Peak overvaluation across each decile by price to sales, so that the most expensive 10% is worse than it was in the 2000 tech bubble and the remaining nine deciles are much more expensive. all measures of debt and margin are at peaks. Speculative measures such as call option volumes, volume of individual trading and quantities of over-the-counter or penny stocks are all at records.</p>\n<p>Robinhood and commission-free retail trading have driven a surge of new investors with no experience of past bubbles and busts. So the scale of craziness is larger. Cryptocurrencies represent over $1 trillion of claims on total asset value while adding nothing -- pure dilution.</p>\n<p>Quantumscape, my own investment from over seven years ago, is a brilliant research lab. For a minute, it sold above GM or Panasonic’s market value, even with no sales.</p>\n<p>Finally, Dogecoin, AMC and Gamestop -- worth billions in the market and not even pretending to be serious investments. AMC is up nearly 10 times since before the pandemic even though box office is down nearly 80%! Dogecoin was created as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrencies being worthless, and not only has it taken off, but it’s such a success that second-level joke cryptocurrencies making fun of Dogecoin have gone to multibillion-dollar valuations. Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies have seen success purely on the basis of their scatological names.</p>\n<p>“Meme” investing -- the idea that something is worth investing in, or rather gambling on, simply because it is funny -- has become commonplace. It’s a totally nihilistic parody of actual investing. This is it guys, the biggest U.S. fantasy trip of all time.</p>\n<p>In January, you wrote “all bubbles end with near universal acceptance that the current one will not end yet.” This reason this time is the belief that interest rates will be kept near zero forever. But members of the Fed are penciling in a couple of rate hikes by the end of 2023. What would you do now if you were the Fed chair?</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: All four chairmen post-Volcker have underestimated the potential economic damage from inflated asset prices, particularly housing, deflating rapidly. The role of higher asset prices on increasing inequality also hasn’t been considered. Asset bubbles are extremely dangerous.</p>\n<p>As Fed chair, I would have moved to curtail U.S. stocks in 1998-1999 and housing in 2005-2007. Similarly, today I would act to deflate all asset prices as carefully as I could, knowing that an earlier decline, however painful, would be smaller and less dangerous than waiting -- the analogy of jumping off an accelerating bus seems a suitably painful one.</p>\n<p>This current event is particularly dangerous because bonds, stocks and real estate are all inflated together. Even commodities have surged. That perfecta and a half has never happened before, anywhere. The closest was Japan in 1989 with two hyper-inflated asset categories: record land and real estate, worse than the South Sea bubble, together with record P/E’s in stocks recorded at the time as 65x. The consequences for the economy were dire, and neither land nor stocks have yet returned to their 1989 peaks!</p>\n<p>The pain from loss of perceived value will only get more intense as prices rise from here. In short, the Fed since Volcker has been pretty clueless and remains so. What has been more remarkable, though, is the persistent confidence shown toward all of these four Fed bosses despite the demonstrable ineptness in dealing with asset bubbles.</p>\n<p>You’ve made it clear timing the end of a bubble is challenging. But you’ve also pointed to this one bursting in “late spring or early summer” -- in other words, right now. Are we still on the cusp of a crash? What can we expect the fall to look like? And if the market should drop, how do you decide when to buy back in?</p>\n<p>Checking all the necessary boxes of a speculative peak, the U.S. market was entitled historically to start unraveling any time after January this year. One odd characteristic of the three biggest bubbles in the U.S. -- 1929, 1972 and 2000 -- is that the very end was preceded byblue chips outperforming more aggressive, higher beta stocks. In 2000, for five months from March, tech-related stocks crashed by 50% as the S&amp;P 500 was unchanged, and the balance of the market was up over 15%. In 1972, before the biggest bear market since the Depression, the S&amp;P outperformed the average stock by 35%. And in 1929, the effect was even more extreme, with the racy S&amp;P low-priced index down nearly 30% before the broad market crashed.</p>\n<p>Today, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are below the level of Feb. 9 four and a half months later, and many of the leading growth stocks are down. (Tesla has fallen from $900 to $625.) The SPAC ETF is down 25% since February. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P has chugged higher by 8% since Feb. 9.</p>\n<p>Probably the asset that most resembles the Nasdaq in 2000 is Bitcoin, and it has been cut in half over the last several weeks. In 2000, the Nasdaq crashing 50% was a perfect warning shot for the broad market six months in advance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c86538b523b4f0d8a0b4391363e62780\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I willadmit, though, that the extent and speed of the new stimulus program was surprising and was guaranteed to help a bubble keep going. Equally surprising was the success of the vaccination program in much of the developed world. Together, they should make the bubble longer-lived and bigger.</p>\n<p>What it will not do, though, is change the justifiable market value that will be reached one day. Therefore, as always, the higher we go the longer and deeper the pain. Getting back in is technically easy but psychologically difficult: Start to average in as the market reaches more reasonable levels, say 18x earnings.</p>\n<p>AUTHERS: To illustrate the point Jeremy made, the difference in behavior between the Nasdaq 100 and S&amp;P 500 in 2000 was dramatic. (And there were plenty of far more stratospheric pure dot-com companies outside the Nasdaq 100 that peaked at the same time.) The S&amp;P still carried on horizontally for two or three months before nose-diving, much as it has moved horizontally for the past two months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/979b24b3fb1bc843f43dc3fa69b7ee67\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>How similar do things look now? It’s always a problem putting Bitcoin on a chart with anything else, because its performance is so remarkable. But yes, there is something rather similar about how the cryptocurrency has dived while the S&amp;P moves sideways.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c319ea2658a34a6e86d6f2c71480ad\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Note that there was already an uncomfortable similarity even before the Bitcoin price dropped below $30,000 this morning.</p>\n<p>One more analogy with how the most exciting speculative assets of this era seem already to have peaked: The SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) boom topped in February. So did the spectacularly successfulARK Innovation ETFrun by Cathie Wood, which is full of exciting plays on future technology investments. These are arguably better comparisons to the dot-com era, when companies went public without ever having generated earnings or even sales, and when there was great excitement about new technology. That excitement has proved to be justified two decades later, but it didn’t stop a lot of people from losing money in 2000.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6f987da4e94f7535f0eb33f1735d2d5\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>To continue on the issue of timing the stock market, it seems to me that timing the bond market could be critical. For years, the standard point made by equity bulls has been that even if share prices look historically expensive, bonds appear even more extreme, Can we see a true unwinding of the stock-market bubble without first witnessing an unwinding of the bond bubble?</p>\n<p>On that issue, one reader reminded me of a passage from Jeremy’s 2017 letter for GMO, which brought attention to the fact that profit margins and the multiple that people were prepared to accept moved higher in the mid-1990s. Here are the charts:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f4f508a8d734f99a00c38518990554\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GMO</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1087d94807b28a3f589ca9b83ad5b3b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GMO</p>\n<p>There are of course a lot of arguments about what caused this. Perhaps the most popular explanation is that the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan lost the plot and started propping up the stock market, deliberately or otherwise. It was very low rates that enabled higher multiples and higher profit margins. But, of course, we have even lower real rates today.</p>\n<p>This was what Jeremy said four years ago:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The single largest input to higher margins, though, is likely to be the existence of much lower real interest rates since 1997 combined with higher leverage. Pre-1997 real rates averaged 200 bps higher than now and leverage was 25% lower. At the old average rate and leverage, profit margins on the S&amp;P 500 would drop back 80% of the way to their previous much lower pre-1997 average, leaving them a mere 6% higher. (Turning up the rate dial just another 0.5% with a further modest reduction in leverage would push them to complete the round trip back to the old normal.)”\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “So, to summarize, stock prices are held up by abnormal profit margins, which in turn are produced mainly by lower real rates, the benefits of which are not competed away because of increased monopoly power, etc. What, we might ask, will it take to break this chain? Any answer, I think, must start with an increase in real rates.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The issue now is that real rates are historically low and could easily rise and trigger a rush for the exits. We also have more leverage and more monopoly concentration than we did four years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89600f321aa62b612359d9d78652e6a3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>On Jeremy’s argument from 2017, real rates might not even need to go positive to burst the bubble in stocks. To what extent do low rates keep the bubble inflated? And how much of a “tantrum” in real yields would be needed to bring down the stock market?</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: Even if we stay in the recent, post-2000 low-interest-rate regime, a full scale psychological bubble can still burst as they did in 2000 and 2007 (including housing). Although, to be sure, they fell to higher lows than before and recovered much faster.</p>\n<p>Still, an 82% decline in the Nasdaq by 2003 was no picnic. In the longer run, a low interest-rate regime promotes lower average yields (and higher average prices) across all assets globally. However, I strongly suspect that there will be a slow irregular return to both higher average inflation and higher average real rates in the next few years, even if they only close half the difference or so with the pre-2000 good old days. Reasons could include resource limitations, energy transition and profound changes in the population mix -- with more retirees and fewer young workers throughout the developed world and China, which collectively could promote both inflation and higher rates.</p>\n<p>There is still so much cash in the system from fiscal stimulus to the Fed as buyer of last resort. Several clients have asked whether it’s fair for stock bulls to fall back on this dynamic as a reason for there to be room to run. In short, is the liquidity argument valid?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b70f8872fdbdf0905f070287a8501bf\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: First, let me make it clear that I am not an expert on money or liquidity. However, although the rate of increase in M2, for example, is extremely high, the growth rate has declined in recent weeks precipitously, about as fast as ever recorded from roughly 18% year over year to 12%.</p>\n<p>Just as bull markets turn down when confidence is high but less than yesterday, so the second derivative determines the effect of liquidity. The best analogy is the fun ping-pong ball supported in the air by a stream of water. The water pressure is still very high and the ball is high, but the ball has dropped an inch or two.</p>\n<p>Moving to asset allocation, which several of our readers have asked about, is the traditional 60/40 portfolio still the ideal strategy? And what do you think about alternative hedges like mega-cap tech stocks or even Bitcoin as a piece of a portfolio?</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: Asset allocation is particularly difficult today, with all major asset classes overpriced. With interest rates at a 4,000 year-low (see Jim Grant), 60-40 seems particularly dangerous. Two sectors are at historical low ratios however: Emerging-market equities compared the S&amp;P and value stocksvs. growth.</p>\n<p>In addition to a cash reserve to take advantage of a future market break, I would recommend as large a position in the intersection of these two relatively cheap sectors -- value stocks and emerging market equities -- as you can stand. I am confident they will return a decent 10%-20% a year and perhaps much better.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61119ce01ded6da4506e3464049c2d54\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P is likely to do poorly in comparison. Bitcoin should be avoided. Cryptocurrencies total over $1 trillion of claims on real global assets while adding nothing to the GDP pool --pure dilution.</p>\n<p>Our family environmental foundation is making a big play (75%!) in early-stage VC, including green VC. VC seems to be by far the most dynamic part of a generally fat, happy and conservative U.S. capitalism. The star players today -- the FANG types -- have all fairly recently sprung out of the VC industry, which is the U.S.’s last, best example of real exceptionalism. However, history suggests they will not be spared in a major market break and indeed may already be showing some relative weakness.</p>\n<p>AUTHERS: On emerging-markets’ value, it’s worth pointing out that it’s not as “out there” or merely theoretical as a lot of detractors suggest. It gives an extremely bumpy ride, of course, but over the last 20 years the MSCI EM Value index has handily beaten the S&amp;P 500 in total-return terms.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a2794abeadade3dfff342413c0e75d\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Add to this the fact that it starts compellingly cheap now and it has very real appeal -- for those with strong constitutions who are prepared to wait.</p>\n<p>Reading Jeremy’s response, I think it might also be important to point out that cash isn’t just there as a lead weight in a portfolio. It obviously gives you no kind of decent return at present, but it does have value in its optionality. The idea of carrying cash now is not to stay in it for 20 years at the same weighting, but to give yourself the opportunity to buy more conventional growth assets once they are at a reasonable price. So I suppose this is a caution against the notion of doing all your timing via automatic rebalancing -- you have to be ready to jump in to take opportunities.</p>\n<p>You received the CBE (Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire) from Prince William in 2016 for your work on climate change, which is now a popular investing theme. How does an average investor pursue green investing when some people believe a “green bubble” is emerging? Examples include price surges on electric-vehicle makers or ESG ETFs.</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: Well, what do you know? GMO has an excellent climate change fund that tries hard to avoid the crazy parts. Yes, there are some bubbly stuff in the green/ESG area, as there is everywhere. But the wind of government support and corporate recognition is behind greening the economy. So lithium and copper, for example, may be at temporary highs. But in the long term, they are very scarce resources critical to decarbonizing, and their prices will go much higher.</p>\n<p>Similarly, EVs may get ahead of themselves and suffer -- Amazon was down 92% by 2002. But some will go very much higher. (The closer you can get to very early stage VC, the more you avoid the bubble, although sadly not entirely. Recycling the limited resources above, for example, may be one of the great opportunities that exist.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90768d03b32314264aaa3b29bd590128\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Talking about bubbles and timing them, is there validity to Goetzmann’s ideas? As bubbles are hard to identify and time, should we just opt for systematic rebalancing, which at least ensures you sell sell high and buy low to some extent?</p>\n<p>AUTHERS: There is a contrarian literature suggesting that there is no such thing as a bubble that we can spot in real time before it bursts. To quote Yale University’s Will Goetzmann, in a 2015 paper called “Bubble Investing: Learning from History”, a bubble is a boom that goes bad, “but not all booms are bad.”</p>\n<p>I’d like to put Goetzmann’s ideas to Jeremy. He defined a bubble as an index that doubles in price in a year or (a softer version) in three years, and looked at national indexes going back a century. His figures, which I quoted here, found 72 cases of a market doubling in a year. In the following year, six doubled again, and three halved, giving back all their gains: Argentina in 1977, Austria in 1924 and Poland in 1994.</p>\n<p>For doubling in three years, he found 460 examples. In the following five years, 10.4% of them halved. The possibility of halving in any three-year period, regardless of what had come before, was lower than this but not dramatically so: 6%. Crashes where bubbles as he defined them burst and gave up all their gains were rarer than booms where the index went on to double again.</p>\n<p>GRANTHAM: Our main study of bubbles eventually covered 330 examples including commodities. To do this on a consistent basis, we defined a bubble on price series only as a two-sigma event, the kind that would occur randomly every 44 years. (In our data its every 35 years -- pretty close.)</p>\n<p>Using only price trend and using only outliers seemed, then and now, better than using arbitrary price changes, which can double or triple from extreme lows, like 1931 or 1982, and mean nothing. Yes, we found a few paradigm shifts -- almost all small, such as moving from developing status to developed. None, other than oil in the first OPEC crisis, were significant. All the other major bubbles returned to trend eventually.</p>\n<p>For the great bubbles by scale and significance, we also noticed that they all accelerated late in the game and had psychological measures that could not be missed by ordinary investors. (Economists are a different matter.) The data, like today, is always clear, just uncommercial and inconvenient for the investment industry and often psychologically impossible to see for many individuals.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bubble Expert Jeremy Grantham Addresses ‘Epic’ Equities Euphoria</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBubble Expert Jeremy Grantham Addresses ‘Epic’ Equities Euphoria\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bubble-expert-jeremy-grantham-addresses-epic-equities-euphoria><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, and investors are wondering if another one is on the way. With economic momentum slowing as the effects of fiscal stimulus wear off, it’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bubble-expert-jeremy-grantham-addresses-epic-equities-euphoria\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bubble-expert-jeremy-grantham-addresses-epic-equities-euphoria","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115637073","content_text":"It’s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, and investors are wondering if another one is on the way. With economic momentum slowing as the effects of fiscal stimulus wear off, it’s no surprise that equities seem to be fading, too. Meanwhile, labor shortages and stretched supply chains remain lingering issues, while inflation is starting to be passed on to consumers. It seems like this should be a risk-off environment. But retail traders appear to be the only investors having a good time. Does that mean we’re in a bubble and due for a pop?\nJeremy Grantham, market historian and co-founder of the Boston investment firmGMO, debates the subject with Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers. His remarks have been edited and condensed.\nRobert Shiller, whom you’ve praised, compared the rise in speculative assets like Bitcoin and NFTs to the fad of Beanie Babies. But he declined to say that there’s a bubble in stocks. What elements of a bubble do you see in a stock market that crashed pretty hard just one year ago, and why would it crash again?\nGRANTHAM: First, the Covid crash is quite distinct from a classic long bull market ending, as they usually do in a bubble and bust. As a sharp external effect, it was more like the 1987 technical crash caused by portfolio insurance: a short hit and a sharp recovery. Looking back, although they were painful at the time, they were mere blips on the longer-term buildup of confidence toward a market peak.\n\nThe last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market. Peak overvaluation across each decile by price to sales, so that the most expensive 10% is worse than it was in the 2000 tech bubble and the remaining nine deciles are much more expensive. all measures of debt and margin are at peaks. Speculative measures such as call option volumes, volume of individual trading and quantities of over-the-counter or penny stocks are all at records.\nRobinhood and commission-free retail trading have driven a surge of new investors with no experience of past bubbles and busts. So the scale of craziness is larger. Cryptocurrencies represent over $1 trillion of claims on total asset value while adding nothing -- pure dilution.\nQuantumscape, my own investment from over seven years ago, is a brilliant research lab. For a minute, it sold above GM or Panasonic’s market value, even with no sales.\nFinally, Dogecoin, AMC and Gamestop -- worth billions in the market and not even pretending to be serious investments. AMC is up nearly 10 times since before the pandemic even though box office is down nearly 80%! Dogecoin was created as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrencies being worthless, and not only has it taken off, but it’s such a success that second-level joke cryptocurrencies making fun of Dogecoin have gone to multibillion-dollar valuations. Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies have seen success purely on the basis of their scatological names.\n“Meme” investing -- the idea that something is worth investing in, or rather gambling on, simply because it is funny -- has become commonplace. It’s a totally nihilistic parody of actual investing. This is it guys, the biggest U.S. fantasy trip of all time.\nIn January, you wrote “all bubbles end with near universal acceptance that the current one will not end yet.” This reason this time is the belief that interest rates will be kept near zero forever. But members of the Fed are penciling in a couple of rate hikes by the end of 2023. What would you do now if you were the Fed chair?\nGRANTHAM: All four chairmen post-Volcker have underestimated the potential economic damage from inflated asset prices, particularly housing, deflating rapidly. The role of higher asset prices on increasing inequality also hasn’t been considered. Asset bubbles are extremely dangerous.\nAs Fed chair, I would have moved to curtail U.S. stocks in 1998-1999 and housing in 2005-2007. Similarly, today I would act to deflate all asset prices as carefully as I could, knowing that an earlier decline, however painful, would be smaller and less dangerous than waiting -- the analogy of jumping off an accelerating bus seems a suitably painful one.\nThis current event is particularly dangerous because bonds, stocks and real estate are all inflated together. Even commodities have surged. That perfecta and a half has never happened before, anywhere. The closest was Japan in 1989 with two hyper-inflated asset categories: record land and real estate, worse than the South Sea bubble, together with record P/E’s in stocks recorded at the time as 65x. The consequences for the economy were dire, and neither land nor stocks have yet returned to their 1989 peaks!\nThe pain from loss of perceived value will only get more intense as prices rise from here. In short, the Fed since Volcker has been pretty clueless and remains so. What has been more remarkable, though, is the persistent confidence shown toward all of these four Fed bosses despite the demonstrable ineptness in dealing with asset bubbles.\nYou’ve made it clear timing the end of a bubble is challenging. But you’ve also pointed to this one bursting in “late spring or early summer” -- in other words, right now. Are we still on the cusp of a crash? What can we expect the fall to look like? And if the market should drop, how do you decide when to buy back in?\nChecking all the necessary boxes of a speculative peak, the U.S. market was entitled historically to start unraveling any time after January this year. One odd characteristic of the three biggest bubbles in the U.S. -- 1929, 1972 and 2000 -- is that the very end was preceded byblue chips outperforming more aggressive, higher beta stocks. In 2000, for five months from March, tech-related stocks crashed by 50% as the S&P 500 was unchanged, and the balance of the market was up over 15%. In 1972, before the biggest bear market since the Depression, the S&P outperformed the average stock by 35%. And in 1929, the effect was even more extreme, with the racy S&P low-priced index down nearly 30% before the broad market crashed.\nToday, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are below the level of Feb. 9 four and a half months later, and many of the leading growth stocks are down. (Tesla has fallen from $900 to $625.) The SPAC ETF is down 25% since February. Meanwhile, the S&P has chugged higher by 8% since Feb. 9.\nProbably the asset that most resembles the Nasdaq in 2000 is Bitcoin, and it has been cut in half over the last several weeks. In 2000, the Nasdaq crashing 50% was a perfect warning shot for the broad market six months in advance.\n\nI willadmit, though, that the extent and speed of the new stimulus program was surprising and was guaranteed to help a bubble keep going. Equally surprising was the success of the vaccination program in much of the developed world. Together, they should make the bubble longer-lived and bigger.\nWhat it will not do, though, is change the justifiable market value that will be reached one day. Therefore, as always, the higher we go the longer and deeper the pain. Getting back in is technically easy but psychologically difficult: Start to average in as the market reaches more reasonable levels, say 18x earnings.\nAUTHERS: To illustrate the point Jeremy made, the difference in behavior between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 in 2000 was dramatic. (And there were plenty of far more stratospheric pure dot-com companies outside the Nasdaq 100 that peaked at the same time.) The S&P still carried on horizontally for two or three months before nose-diving, much as it has moved horizontally for the past two months.\n\nHow similar do things look now? It’s always a problem putting Bitcoin on a chart with anything else, because its performance is so remarkable. But yes, there is something rather similar about how the cryptocurrency has dived while the S&P moves sideways.\n\nNote that there was already an uncomfortable similarity even before the Bitcoin price dropped below $30,000 this morning.\nOne more analogy with how the most exciting speculative assets of this era seem already to have peaked: The SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) boom topped in February. So did the spectacularly successfulARK Innovation ETFrun by Cathie Wood, which is full of exciting plays on future technology investments. These are arguably better comparisons to the dot-com era, when companies went public without ever having generated earnings or even sales, and when there was great excitement about new technology. That excitement has proved to be justified two decades later, but it didn’t stop a lot of people from losing money in 2000.\n\nTo continue on the issue of timing the stock market, it seems to me that timing the bond market could be critical. For years, the standard point made by equity bulls has been that even if share prices look historically expensive, bonds appear even more extreme, Can we see a true unwinding of the stock-market bubble without first witnessing an unwinding of the bond bubble?\nOn that issue, one reader reminded me of a passage from Jeremy’s 2017 letter for GMO, which brought attention to the fact that profit margins and the multiple that people were prepared to accept moved higher in the mid-1990s. Here are the charts:\n\nSource: GMO\n\nSource: GMO\nThere are of course a lot of arguments about what caused this. Perhaps the most popular explanation is that the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan lost the plot and started propping up the stock market, deliberately or otherwise. It was very low rates that enabled higher multiples and higher profit margins. But, of course, we have even lower real rates today.\nThis was what Jeremy said four years ago:\n\n “The single largest input to higher margins, though, is likely to be the existence of much lower real interest rates since 1997 combined with higher leverage. Pre-1997 real rates averaged 200 bps higher than now and leverage was 25% lower. At the old average rate and leverage, profit margins on the S&P 500 would drop back 80% of the way to their previous much lower pre-1997 average, leaving them a mere 6% higher. (Turning up the rate dial just another 0.5% with a further modest reduction in leverage would push them to complete the round trip back to the old normal.)”\n\n\n “So, to summarize, stock prices are held up by abnormal profit margins, which in turn are produced mainly by lower real rates, the benefits of which are not competed away because of increased monopoly power, etc. What, we might ask, will it take to break this chain? Any answer, I think, must start with an increase in real rates.”\n\nThe issue now is that real rates are historically low and could easily rise and trigger a rush for the exits. We also have more leverage and more monopoly concentration than we did four years ago.\n\nOn Jeremy’s argument from 2017, real rates might not even need to go positive to burst the bubble in stocks. To what extent do low rates keep the bubble inflated? And how much of a “tantrum” in real yields would be needed to bring down the stock market?\nGRANTHAM: Even if we stay in the recent, post-2000 low-interest-rate regime, a full scale psychological bubble can still burst as they did in 2000 and 2007 (including housing). Although, to be sure, they fell to higher lows than before and recovered much faster.\nStill, an 82% decline in the Nasdaq by 2003 was no picnic. In the longer run, a low interest-rate regime promotes lower average yields (and higher average prices) across all assets globally. However, I strongly suspect that there will be a slow irregular return to both higher average inflation and higher average real rates in the next few years, even if they only close half the difference or so with the pre-2000 good old days. Reasons could include resource limitations, energy transition and profound changes in the population mix -- with more retirees and fewer young workers throughout the developed world and China, which collectively could promote both inflation and higher rates.\nThere is still so much cash in the system from fiscal stimulus to the Fed as buyer of last resort. Several clients have asked whether it’s fair for stock bulls to fall back on this dynamic as a reason for there to be room to run. In short, is the liquidity argument valid?\nGRANTHAM: First, let me make it clear that I am not an expert on money or liquidity. However, although the rate of increase in M2, for example, is extremely high, the growth rate has declined in recent weeks precipitously, about as fast as ever recorded from roughly 18% year over year to 12%.\nJust as bull markets turn down when confidence is high but less than yesterday, so the second derivative determines the effect of liquidity. The best analogy is the fun ping-pong ball supported in the air by a stream of water. The water pressure is still very high and the ball is high, but the ball has dropped an inch or two.\nMoving to asset allocation, which several of our readers have asked about, is the traditional 60/40 portfolio still the ideal strategy? And what do you think about alternative hedges like mega-cap tech stocks or even Bitcoin as a piece of a portfolio?\nGRANTHAM: Asset allocation is particularly difficult today, with all major asset classes overpriced. With interest rates at a 4,000 year-low (see Jim Grant), 60-40 seems particularly dangerous. Two sectors are at historical low ratios however: Emerging-market equities compared the S&P and value stocksvs. growth.\nIn addition to a cash reserve to take advantage of a future market break, I would recommend as large a position in the intersection of these two relatively cheap sectors -- value stocks and emerging market equities -- as you can stand. I am confident they will return a decent 10%-20% a year and perhaps much better.\n\nThe S&P is likely to do poorly in comparison. Bitcoin should be avoided. Cryptocurrencies total over $1 trillion of claims on real global assets while adding nothing to the GDP pool --pure dilution.\nOur family environmental foundation is making a big play (75%!) in early-stage VC, including green VC. VC seems to be by far the most dynamic part of a generally fat, happy and conservative U.S. capitalism. The star players today -- the FANG types -- have all fairly recently sprung out of the VC industry, which is the U.S.’s last, best example of real exceptionalism. However, history suggests they will not be spared in a major market break and indeed may already be showing some relative weakness.\nAUTHERS: On emerging-markets’ value, it’s worth pointing out that it’s not as “out there” or merely theoretical as a lot of detractors suggest. It gives an extremely bumpy ride, of course, but over the last 20 years the MSCI EM Value index has handily beaten the S&P 500 in total-return terms.\n\nAdd to this the fact that it starts compellingly cheap now and it has very real appeal -- for those with strong constitutions who are prepared to wait.\nReading Jeremy’s response, I think it might also be important to point out that cash isn’t just there as a lead weight in a portfolio. It obviously gives you no kind of decent return at present, but it does have value in its optionality. The idea of carrying cash now is not to stay in it for 20 years at the same weighting, but to give yourself the opportunity to buy more conventional growth assets once they are at a reasonable price. So I suppose this is a caution against the notion of doing all your timing via automatic rebalancing -- you have to be ready to jump in to take opportunities.\nYou received the CBE (Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire) from Prince William in 2016 for your work on climate change, which is now a popular investing theme. How does an average investor pursue green investing when some people believe a “green bubble” is emerging? Examples include price surges on electric-vehicle makers or ESG ETFs.\nGRANTHAM: Well, what do you know? GMO has an excellent climate change fund that tries hard to avoid the crazy parts. Yes, there are some bubbly stuff in the green/ESG area, as there is everywhere. But the wind of government support and corporate recognition is behind greening the economy. So lithium and copper, for example, may be at temporary highs. But in the long term, they are very scarce resources critical to decarbonizing, and their prices will go much higher.\nSimilarly, EVs may get ahead of themselves and suffer -- Amazon was down 92% by 2002. But some will go very much higher. (The closer you can get to very early stage VC, the more you avoid the bubble, although sadly not entirely. Recycling the limited resources above, for example, may be one of the great opportunities that exist.)\nTalking about bubbles and timing them, is there validity to Goetzmann’s ideas? As bubbles are hard to identify and time, should we just opt for systematic rebalancing, which at least ensures you sell sell high and buy low to some extent?\nAUTHERS: There is a contrarian literature suggesting that there is no such thing as a bubble that we can spot in real time before it bursts. To quote Yale University’s Will Goetzmann, in a 2015 paper called “Bubble Investing: Learning from History”, a bubble is a boom that goes bad, “but not all booms are bad.”\nI’d like to put Goetzmann’s ideas to Jeremy. He defined a bubble as an index that doubles in price in a year or (a softer version) in three years, and looked at national indexes going back a century. His figures, which I quoted here, found 72 cases of a market doubling in a year. In the following year, six doubled again, and three halved, giving back all their gains: Argentina in 1977, Austria in 1924 and Poland in 1994.\nFor doubling in three years, he found 460 examples. In the following five years, 10.4% of them halved. The possibility of halving in any three-year period, regardless of what had come before, was lower than this but not dramatically so: 6%. Crashes where bubbles as he defined them burst and gave up all their gains were rarer than booms where the index went on to double again.\nGRANTHAM: Our main study of bubbles eventually covered 330 examples including commodities. To do this on a consistent basis, we defined a bubble on price series only as a two-sigma event, the kind that would occur randomly every 44 years. (In our data its every 35 years -- pretty close.)\nUsing only price trend and using only outliers seemed, then and now, better than using arbitrary price changes, which can double or triple from extreme lows, like 1931 or 1982, and mean nothing. Yes, we found a few paradigm shifts -- almost all small, such as moving from developing status to developed. None, other than oil in the first OPEC crisis, were significant. All the other major bubbles returned to trend eventually.\nFor the great bubbles by scale and significance, we also noticed that they all accelerated late in the game and had psychological measures that could not be missed by ordinary investors. (Economists are a different matter.) The data, like today, is always clear, just uncommercial and inconvenient for the investment industry and often psychologically impossible to see for many individuals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585287,"gmtCreate":1624477279549,"gmtModify":1703837847503,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","listText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","text":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585287","repostId":"1143023261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143023261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441129,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143023261?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143023261","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,","content":"<blockquote>\n DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n</blockquote>\n<p>On Dec. 9, 2020,<b>DoorDash</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DASH</u></b>) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d3df1e0ebde0067eb12e622ca5a177\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Year-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.</p>\n<p>However, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,<b>Grubhub</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GRUB</u></b>) trades at 0.8x and<b>Uber</b>(NYSE:<b><u>UBER</u></b>) at 8.1x.</p>\n<p>DoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.</p>\n<p>For all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.</p>\n<p><b>DASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play</b></p>\n<p>DoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.</p>\n<p>People increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>However, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.</p>\n<p>Interestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.</p>\n<p>Whether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.</p>\n<p>Chalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.</p>\n<p>DoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.</p>\n<p>The company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.</p>\n<p>More interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Now you might be thinking DoorDash could be the next<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.</p>\n<p>So, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.</p>\n<p>Sales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.</p>\n<p>During the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.</p>\n<p>According to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.</p>\n<p>For Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.</p>\n<p>DoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.</p>\n<p>But as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.</p>\n<p>In addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.</p>\n<p>When you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line on DASH Stock</b></p>\n<p>There is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.</p>\n<p>On top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.</p>\n<p>Until that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143023261","content_text":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.\nSource: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com\nYear-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.\nHowever, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,Grubhub(NYSE:GRUB) trades at 0.8x andUber(NYSE:UBER) at 8.1x.\nDoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.\nFor all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.\nDASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play\nDoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.\nPeople increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.\nHowever, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.\nInterestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.\nWhether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.\nChalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.\nDoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.\nThe company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.\nMore interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.\nGrowth Prospects\nNow you might be thinking DoorDash could be the nextTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.\nSo, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.\nSales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.\nDuring the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.\nAccording to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.\nFor Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.\nDoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.\nBut as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.\nIn addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.\nWhen you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.\nThe Bottom Line on DASH Stock\nThere is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.\nOn top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.\nUntil that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585300,"gmtCreate":1624477142400,"gmtModify":1703837847020,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585300","repostId":"1179305353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179305353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441813,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179305353?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179305353","media":"Barron's","summary":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recogniz","content":"<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p>\n<p>The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p>\n<p>The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p>\n<p>Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p>\n<p>The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p>\n<p>Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p>\n<p>It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p>\n<p>Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179305353","content_text":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.\nEarly on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.\nThe drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.\nThe accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.\nTesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.\nThe filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.\nIf Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.\nTesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.\nIt looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.\nTesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585048,"gmtCreate":1624477046984,"gmtModify":1703837846697,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121585048","repostId":"1103650363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103650363","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624446946,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103650363?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103650363","media":"The Street","summary":"Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency p","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her stock picks and the daily buys and sells of stocks within her ARK ETFs are picked apart with a fine tooth comb every day of the week.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2021, there was nothing but love. The company's flagship<b>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)</b>had grown from around $1.8 billion at the beginning of 2020 to nearly $28 billion during its February 2021 peak. Investors were chasing her incredible track record over the prior several years and up to that point it had mostly paid off.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a different story. ARK's high-tech innovation theme has fallen out of favor and ARKK had fallen as much as 36% from its peak. The money, which had been flowing in non-stop, started heading in the other direction and Cathie Wood suddenly became the object of scorn for many previous ARK fans. With the sudden influx on new money and the timing of the sharp downturn of ARKK, it was estimated that more than half of the money sitting in the fund was underwater.</p>\n<p>But that doesn't make ARKK any less interesting. Many people still watch ARK's transaction activity like a hawk and it does give us some insight into what one of the most watched financial minds is thinking in real time.</p>\n<p>Like I didearlier this year, I'm going back toarktrack.comto comb through their database of ARK transaction data. Cathie Wood buys and sells a lot, but these are 10 stocks that are new additions to ARKK in 2021 that the fund still holds onto today.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter (TWTR)</b></p>\n<p>Wood has been steadily buying Twitter stock on the dips and it now accounts for about 1.8% of the fund overall, making it the 19th largest holding in ARKK out of 51 total holdings.</p>\n<p>Wood bought a big stake in May following a double-digit decline after disappointing quarterly guidance. She picked up more shares in late May with Benzinganotingthe curious timing:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday bought 731,775 shares, estimated to be worth about $41.76 million, in Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) — a day after The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold its entire stake in the social media company.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>DraftKings (DKNG)</b></p>\n<p>DraftKings is another stock that Wood has been in and out of a lot. Like Twitter, she's been buying the stock on the dips, most recently just last week when she added $42 million in shares across multiple ARK ETFs after Hindenburg Researchtooka short position in the company.</p>\n<p>Today, DKNG accounts for about 1.9% of ARKK, making it the 18th largest holding.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir (PLTR)</b></p>\n<p>Wood took a huge position in Palantir towards the end of March and has expanded that position throughout the 2nd quarter. In May, she added more shares in both ARKK and the<b>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)</b>after a Q1 earnings beat that sent the stock higher.</p>\n<p>Palantir has become one of ARKK's larger holdings with about 2.5% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b></p>\n<p>Coinbase officially went public on April 14th of this year and it didn't take long for Wood to jump on board. She bought shares almost immediately after it became publicly listed and pretty much hasn't stopped since.</p>\n<p>Cathie Wood has been bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrency for a while and the heavy allocation to COIN is reflective of that.</p>\n<p>COIN is the only one of ARKK's new positions of 2021 that falls into the fund's top 10 holdings. It's currently at #10 with approximately 3.3% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Novartis (NVS)</b></p>\n<p>You may not immediately think of pharmaceutical companies when it comes to the types of companies Wood typically targets, but she views NVS as a play on her expected biotech/genomics theme. NVS also sneaks into the top 10 holdings of the<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)</b>.</p>\n<p>In ARKK, however, NVS is only one of the fund's smallest holdings with a relatively scant 0.4% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Trimble (TRMB)</b></p>\n<p>Trimble is involved in the development and/or production of global navigation satellite systems, laser rangefinders, unmanned aerial vehicles and navigation systems, so it's not surprising that this found it's way onto Cathie Wood's radar. The stock shows up in very few ETFs overall, but it's the top holding in the<b>ARK Space Exploration ETF (ARKX)</b>at 9% of assets and #3 in the<b>ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF (ARKQ)</b>.</p>\n<p>In ARKK, however, it's only a small holding with only 0.5% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Teradyne (TER)</b></p>\n<p>Teradyne is a stock that's gone in and out of the ARK ETFs for several years. It mostly disappeared heading into 2021, but re-emerged in ARKK with a roughly 2 million share purchase in the 1st quarter. Wood has held on through the midway point of 2021, but only at a modest 1% of total assets.</p>\n<p><b>Skillz (SKLZ)</b></p>\n<p>Skillz is a mobile esports platform, which makes it an ideal high growth next-gen tech play for the ARK funds. Like many companies in this space, it's experienced big growth during the pandemic and Wood has become one of the company's bigger advocates.</p>\n<p>She was been building a position in SKLZ throughout the year, but added another batch of shares in early May following a big increase in both revenues and average users. The stock is a middle of the road holding for ARKK at about 1.3% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Fate Therapeutics (FATE)</b></p>\n<p>Wood was in on Fate early in the year and continues to hold it following her belief in biotech and therapeutics. Fate is a top 10 holding in ARKG and accounts for about 1.2% of ARKK.</p>\n<p><b>10X Genomics (TXG)</b></p>\n<p>10X Genomics sits just outside the top 10 of ARKK, but it's become one of the fund's largest new positions of 2021. Curiously, it also ranks outside the top 10 of ARKG. At roughly 2.4% of assets, TXG's position in ARKK is nearly the same as both Palantir and DraftKings.</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.\n\nThere might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TER":"泰瑞达","SKLZ":"Skillz Inc","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","FATE":"Fate Therapeutics Inc","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","TRMB":"天宝导航","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","TXG":"10x Genomics, Inc.","TWTR":"Twitter","NVS":"诺华"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103650363","content_text":"Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.\n\nThere might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her stock picks and the daily buys and sells of stocks within her ARK ETFs are picked apart with a fine tooth comb every day of the week.\nPrior to 2021, there was nothing but love. The company's flagshipARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)had grown from around $1.8 billion at the beginning of 2020 to nearly $28 billion during its February 2021 peak. Investors were chasing her incredible track record over the prior several years and up to that point it had mostly paid off.\n2021 has been a different story. ARK's high-tech innovation theme has fallen out of favor and ARKK had fallen as much as 36% from its peak. The money, which had been flowing in non-stop, started heading in the other direction and Cathie Wood suddenly became the object of scorn for many previous ARK fans. With the sudden influx on new money and the timing of the sharp downturn of ARKK, it was estimated that more than half of the money sitting in the fund was underwater.\nBut that doesn't make ARKK any less interesting. Many people still watch ARK's transaction activity like a hawk and it does give us some insight into what one of the most watched financial minds is thinking in real time.\nLike I didearlier this year, I'm going back toarktrack.comto comb through their database of ARK transaction data. Cathie Wood buys and sells a lot, but these are 10 stocks that are new additions to ARKK in 2021 that the fund still holds onto today.\nTwitter (TWTR)\nWood has been steadily buying Twitter stock on the dips and it now accounts for about 1.8% of the fund overall, making it the 19th largest holding in ARKK out of 51 total holdings.\nWood bought a big stake in May following a double-digit decline after disappointing quarterly guidance. She picked up more shares in late May with Benzinganotingthe curious timing:\n\n Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday bought 731,775 shares, estimated to be worth about $41.76 million, in Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) — a day after The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold its entire stake in the social media company.\n\nDraftKings (DKNG)\nDraftKings is another stock that Wood has been in and out of a lot. Like Twitter, she's been buying the stock on the dips, most recently just last week when she added $42 million in shares across multiple ARK ETFs after Hindenburg Researchtooka short position in the company.\nToday, DKNG accounts for about 1.9% of ARKK, making it the 18th largest holding.\nPalantir (PLTR)\nWood took a huge position in Palantir towards the end of March and has expanded that position throughout the 2nd quarter. In May, she added more shares in both ARKK and theARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)after a Q1 earnings beat that sent the stock higher.\nPalantir has become one of ARKK's larger holdings with about 2.5% of assets.\nCoinbase (COIN)\nCoinbase officially went public on April 14th of this year and it didn't take long for Wood to jump on board. She bought shares almost immediately after it became publicly listed and pretty much hasn't stopped since.\nCathie Wood has been bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrency for a while and the heavy allocation to COIN is reflective of that.\nCOIN is the only one of ARKK's new positions of 2021 that falls into the fund's top 10 holdings. It's currently at #10 with approximately 3.3% of assets.\nNovartis (NVS)\nYou may not immediately think of pharmaceutical companies when it comes to the types of companies Wood typically targets, but she views NVS as a play on her expected biotech/genomics theme. NVS also sneaks into the top 10 holdings of theARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG).\nIn ARKK, however, NVS is only one of the fund's smallest holdings with a relatively scant 0.4% of assets.\nTrimble (TRMB)\nTrimble is involved in the development and/or production of global navigation satellite systems, laser rangefinders, unmanned aerial vehicles and navigation systems, so it's not surprising that this found it's way onto Cathie Wood's radar. The stock shows up in very few ETFs overall, but it's the top holding in theARK Space Exploration ETF (ARKX)at 9% of assets and #3 in theARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ).\nIn ARKK, however, it's only a small holding with only 0.5% of assets.\nTeradyne (TER)\nTeradyne is a stock that's gone in and out of the ARK ETFs for several years. It mostly disappeared heading into 2021, but re-emerged in ARKK with a roughly 2 million share purchase in the 1st quarter. Wood has held on through the midway point of 2021, but only at a modest 1% of total assets.\nSkillz (SKLZ)\nSkillz is a mobile esports platform, which makes it an ideal high growth next-gen tech play for the ARK funds. Like many companies in this space, it's experienced big growth during the pandemic and Wood has become one of the company's bigger advocates.\nShe was been building a position in SKLZ throughout the year, but added another batch of shares in early May following a big increase in both revenues and average users. The stock is a middle of the road holding for ARKK at about 1.3% of assets.\nFate Therapeutics (FATE)\nWood was in on Fate early in the year and continues to hold it following her belief in biotech and therapeutics. Fate is a top 10 holding in ARKG and accounts for about 1.2% of ARKK.\n10X Genomics (TXG)\n10X Genomics sits just outside the top 10 of ARKK, but it's become one of the fund's largest new positions of 2021. Curiously, it also ranks outside the top 10 of ARKG. At roughly 2.4% of assets, TXG's position in ARKK is nearly the same as both Palantir and DraftKings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582221,"gmtCreate":1624476936964,"gmtModify":1703837845725,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Billionaire problems lol","listText":"Billionaire problems lol","text":"Billionaire problems lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582221","repostId":"1115142051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582805,"gmtCreate":1624476902307,"gmtModify":1703837845564,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582805","repostId":"1155637149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582050,"gmtCreate":1624476730570,"gmtModify":1703837845240,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","listText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","text":"BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121582050","repostId":"1121798334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121798334","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624451302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121798334?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 20:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin And The 2000 Technology Bubble Have A Lot In Common","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121798334","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin has many similarities to the speculative nature of the stock market of the late 199","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Bitcoin has many similarities to the speculative nature of the stock market of the late 1990s.</li>\n <li>There's nothing fundamental about Bitcoin to anchor its valuation.</li>\n <li>The technicals suggest it falls to between 16,000 and 19,000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Volatility in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is picking up once again, and it isn't likely to go away anytime soon. The cryptocurrency has been trading in a range between 30,000 and 40,000 over the past few weeks. That volatility may only persist as it tests key levels of technical support.</p>\n<p>There are plenty of reasons for the recent weakness. China is cracking down on bitcoin mining operations. In addition, the country has told banks and payment services to stop supporting digital currency transactions. This comes on top of the potential for regulatory risk in the US and the potential environmental damages mining for bitcoin creates.</p>\n<p><b>No Anchor</b></p>\n<p>On top of external factors that seem to be creating volatility in Bitcoin, investors need to wonder about its stability and whether or not it can act as a hedge against the dollar, and what a stronger dollar may mean. To this point, Bitcoin has been anything but stable and anything but a hedge against the dollar or any investment for that matter.</p>\n<p>The big swings, higher or massive losses, reflect that of a highly speculative asset class. The big swings are because there's nothing to anchor Bitcoin to since there's an absence of anything that even remotely appears to be fundamental to make it an attractive option versus another asset class.</p>\n<p><b>Bubble</b></p>\n<p>Bitcoin has many similarities to that of speculative bubbles in the past. For example, the most recent one is the technology bubble of the late 1990s. All a company had to do was add a dot.com to the end of their corporate name or say they were launching a website. This would send the stock soaring, even though there was nothing fundamental that actually change.</p>\n<p>Back then, investors came up with all sorts of ingenious ways how to value some of these dot.com stocks. Even though some of those valuations made no sense, there was something to show how one could arrive at that valuation. Investors could look to extrapolate cash flow or the potential revenue and earnings growth. At least there was something because the company either created something or had something of value to sell.</p>\n<p>With Bitcoin, there seems to be plenty of reason why the crypto can rise, but very little to support some of these far-fetched valuations. Bitcoin produces nothing, clearly has no store of value or stability, and offers no dividend. There is no revenue, no cash flow, nothing. At least in the speculative technology bubble of the late 1990s, even though the valuation was a stretch, an investor could decide if they agreed or disagreed with the analysis. Bitcoin offers investors no such way to do that.</p>\n<p><b>Technicals</b></p>\n<p>The only thing an investor is left with are technical charts, and those continue to look really weak. It's currently testing support around 30,000 and is likely heading even lower to complete a 5 wave cycle. Based on a projection of this 5 wave counted, Bitcoin is likely heading toward 16,300. Additionally, the relative strength index is falling, suggesting the bulls have no control over it at this point. Even the MACD is showing a downward sloping trend line as well. This is also a big negative.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b2035aa426724115fff1ac2de21a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>A log chart of Bitcoin also shows that it's breaking down, with Bitcoin falling below an uptrend that started in March2020. This also shows that once support at 30,000 breaks, it could send Bitcoin to around 19,000.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d2af63f761ccac3486adb97a351cd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\"></p>\n<p>Bitcoin has had an impressive run, but perhaps, speculators finally realize the trade is over.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin And The 2000 Technology Bubble Have A Lot In Common</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin And The 2000 Technology Bubble Have A Lot In Common\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 20:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436115-bitcoin-and-the-2000-technology-bubble-have-a-lot-in-common><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBitcoin has many similarities to the speculative nature of the stock market of the late 1990s.\nThere's nothing fundamental about Bitcoin to anchor its valuation.\nThe technicals suggest it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436115-bitcoin-and-the-2000-technology-bubble-have-a-lot-in-common\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436115-bitcoin-and-the-2000-technology-bubble-have-a-lot-in-common","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1121798334","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin has many similarities to the speculative nature of the stock market of the late 1990s.\nThere's nothing fundamental about Bitcoin to anchor its valuation.\nThe technicals suggest it falls to between 16,000 and 19,000.\n\nVolatility in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is picking up once again, and it isn't likely to go away anytime soon. The cryptocurrency has been trading in a range between 30,000 and 40,000 over the past few weeks. That volatility may only persist as it tests key levels of technical support.\nThere are plenty of reasons for the recent weakness. China is cracking down on bitcoin mining operations. In addition, the country has told banks and payment services to stop supporting digital currency transactions. This comes on top of the potential for regulatory risk in the US and the potential environmental damages mining for bitcoin creates.\nNo Anchor\nOn top of external factors that seem to be creating volatility in Bitcoin, investors need to wonder about its stability and whether or not it can act as a hedge against the dollar, and what a stronger dollar may mean. To this point, Bitcoin has been anything but stable and anything but a hedge against the dollar or any investment for that matter.\nThe big swings, higher or massive losses, reflect that of a highly speculative asset class. The big swings are because there's nothing to anchor Bitcoin to since there's an absence of anything that even remotely appears to be fundamental to make it an attractive option versus another asset class.\nBubble\nBitcoin has many similarities to that of speculative bubbles in the past. For example, the most recent one is the technology bubble of the late 1990s. All a company had to do was add a dot.com to the end of their corporate name or say they were launching a website. This would send the stock soaring, even though there was nothing fundamental that actually change.\nBack then, investors came up with all sorts of ingenious ways how to value some of these dot.com stocks. Even though some of those valuations made no sense, there was something to show how one could arrive at that valuation. Investors could look to extrapolate cash flow or the potential revenue and earnings growth. At least there was something because the company either created something or had something of value to sell.\nWith Bitcoin, there seems to be plenty of reason why the crypto can rise, but very little to support some of these far-fetched valuations. Bitcoin produces nothing, clearly has no store of value or stability, and offers no dividend. There is no revenue, no cash flow, nothing. At least in the speculative technology bubble of the late 1990s, even though the valuation was a stretch, an investor could decide if they agreed or disagreed with the analysis. Bitcoin offers investors no such way to do that.\nTechnicals\nThe only thing an investor is left with are technical charts, and those continue to look really weak. It's currently testing support around 30,000 and is likely heading even lower to complete a 5 wave cycle. Based on a projection of this 5 wave counted, Bitcoin is likely heading toward 16,300. Additionally, the relative strength index is falling, suggesting the bulls have no control over it at this point. Even the MACD is showing a downward sloping trend line as well. This is also a big negative.\n\nA log chart of Bitcoin also shows that it's breaking down, with Bitcoin falling below an uptrend that started in March2020. This also shows that once support at 30,000 breaks, it could send Bitcoin to around 19,000.\n\nBitcoin has had an impressive run, but perhaps, speculators finally realize the trade is over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586867,"gmtCreate":1624476578159,"gmtModify":1703837844594,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","listText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","text":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121586867","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145283099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624452600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145283099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145283099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales fell off a cliff, and so did the stock price.","content":"<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.</p>\n<p>Other cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. <b>Ethereum</b> (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.</p>\n<p>Graphics chip developer <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eae70fe3111cdeb0fe2fe15c5e5fcf3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.</p>\n<p>What happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.</p>\n<h3>From shortage to supply glut</h3>\n<p>The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?</p>\n<p>NVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F631439%2Fnvidia-gaming-revenue-crypto.png&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.</p>\n<p>The crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.</p>\n<p>\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.</p>\n<p>Kress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"</p>\n<p>What's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.</p>\n<p>Actual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.</p>\n<p>Just like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872169a76058d1b9cde031da052b3211\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>\n<p>NVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's What Happened to NVIDIA During the Last Crypto Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/nvidia-stock-crypto-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145283099","content_text":"It's starting to look like the cryptocurrency bubble is bursting. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dipped below $30,000, erasing its gains for the year. Bitcoin is now down more than 50% from its all-time high.\nOther cryptocurrencies are doing even worse. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down nearly 60% from its high, and joke cryptocurrency Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) has crashed 75%.\nGraphics chip developer NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one beneficiary of the crypto bubble. The company's graphics cards are useful for mining certain cryptocurrencies. This fact has boosted demand for graphics cards, contributing to shortages and high prices.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA sells some models specifically aimed at cryptocurrency miners, but miners are also buying plenty of standard graphics cards through the same channels used by PC gamers. This makes it difficult to tell how much of NVIDIA's gaming revenue is a side-effect of the cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $2.76 billion in its latest quarter.\nWhat happens if crypto prices continue to crash? It wasn't pretty for NVIDIA last time around.\nFrom shortage to supply glut\nThe price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared throughout 2017 and early 2018. Miners snapped up graphics cards, leading to shortages and high prices. Sound familiar?\nNVIDIA's quarterly gaming revenue held steady at around $1.8 billion through the third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended in October of 2018. Then it fell off a cliff as interest in cryptocurrency waned. Gaming revenue crashed below $1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of that year.\n\nChart by author. Data source: NVIDIA.\nThe crypto crash of 2018 led to bloated channel inventories of graphics cards, which reduced NVIDIA's sales dramatically. Gaming revenue was depressed for about three quarters before bouncing back.\n\"Crypto mining demand and its after effects have distorted the quarter-to-quarter trends in the gaming business and obscured its underlying trend line,\" NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.\nKress continued: \"...with the benefit of hindsight, we shipped a higher amount of desktop gaming products relative to where end demand turned out to be.\"\nWhat's happening now is a turbocharged version of what happened in 2018. The total value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak this time around was far higher than in 2018, topping $2 trillion in April.\nActual shipments of graphics cards were up 24.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to Jon Peddie Research. The total value of those cards soared 370% thanks to inflated prices. Some of this demand has undoubtedly been driven by the pandemic, but a big chunk is tied to the fortunes of the cryptocurrency market.\nJust like NVIDIA's gaming revenue, NVIDIA stock was hit hard by the last crypto crash. Shares tanked in the final three months of 2018 as the extent of NVIDIA's dependence on crypto miners demand became clear.\n\nNVDA data by YCharts\nNVIDIA stock has once again surged amid a cryptocurrency boom and shortages of graphics cards. The company is now worth about $460 billion, about triple its peak value during the last cryptocurrency bubble. NVIDIA has made strides outside of gaming since then, particularly in the data center. But a big drop in revenue is possible, and perhaps likely, if crypto prices keep tumbling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586961,"gmtCreate":1624476424653,"gmtModify":1703837844271,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","text":"Let's go NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121586961","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145825451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624433586,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145825451?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145825451","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.Super fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc. model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.The go","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Super fans of the latest and greatest high-end<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b294a3604c7ba82bd19b3c70be3a4020\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Musk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”</p>\n<p>The Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.</p>\n<p>Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.</p>\n<p>As a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.</p>\n<p>This “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.</p>\n<p>Both the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.</p>\n<p>Clearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”</p>\n<p>As someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know do<i>not</i>want to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.</p>\n<p>What Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.</p>\n<p>This is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.</p>\n<p>However, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential</b></p>\n<p>I’m talking about&nbsp;<b>Nio, Inc.</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio back in February.</p>\n<p>The company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.</p>\n<p>The company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies like<b>NVIDIA Corporation</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>), another one of my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.</p>\n<p>With the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.</p>\n<p>That means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”</p>\n<p>Interestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO represents the<b>crème de la crème</b>of EV stocks right now.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145825451","content_text":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.\nSource: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com\nMusk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”\nThe Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.\nInstead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.\nAs a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.\nThis “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.\nBoth the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.\nClearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”\nAs someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know donotwant to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.\nWhat Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.\nThe good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.\nThis is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.\nHowever, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.\nTaking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential\nI’m talking about Nio, Inc.(NYSE:NIO). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio back in February.\nThe company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.\nThe company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies likeNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA), another one of myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.\nNow, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.\nWith the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.\nThat means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.\nShares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”\nInterestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.\nIn other words, NIO represents thecrème de la crèmeof EV stocks right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121504310,"gmtCreate":1624469965430,"gmtModify":1703837790165,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","listText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","text":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121504310","repostId":"1188931868","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120936670,"gmtCreate":1624291474390,"gmtModify":1703832740689,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","listText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","text":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120936670","repostId":"1181010712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181010712","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181010712?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181010712","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:","content":"<blockquote>\n NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today’s write-up about<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.</p>\n<p>Investors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.</p>\n<p>My beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) stock price range makes more sense.</p>\n<p>Today I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.</p>\n<p>This doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.</p>\n<p>When great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second and<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.</p>\n<p><b>Relative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive</b></p>\n<p>When I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times&nbsp;more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.</p>\n<p>If you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.</p>\n<p>There is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.</p>\n<p>When that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.</p>\n<p>The reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.</p>\n<p>I know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.</p>\n<p>Circling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.</p>\n<p>Investors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.</p>\n<p><b>There Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd18b9d27a6de0abcf734e0f652d6e3\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"826\">After a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.</p>\n<p>The stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.</p>\n<p>If I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.</p>\n<p>Committing to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.</p>\n<p>I will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181010712","content_text":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.\nInvestors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.\nMy beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) stock price range makes more sense.\nToday I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.\nThis doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.\nWhen great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second andIntel(NASDAQ:INTC) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.\nRelative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive\nWhen I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.\nIf you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.\nThere is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.\nWhen that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.\nThe reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.\nI know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.\nCircling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.\nInvestors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.\nThere Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys\nAfter a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.\nThe stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.\nIf I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.\nCommitting to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.\nI will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120997427,"gmtCreate":1624291313169,"gmtModify":1703832732523,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","listText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","text":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120997427","repostId":"2145084680","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120996124,"gmtCreate":1624291186868,"gmtModify":1703832725874,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","listText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","text":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120996124","repostId":"1122985599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122985599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624279556,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122985599?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Citi says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122985599","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 ","content":"<p>Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&amp;P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.</p>\n<p>That's following a down week where Information Technology(NYSEARCA:XLK)was the only S&amp;P sector in the green.</p>\n<p>And growth stocks(NYSEARCA:IVW)will enjoy a better environment, even if 10-year Treasury yield(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT)trends up to 2%, Citi says.</p>\n<p>\"Our lead indicator model has been changing and is now showing a better trend for 1H22 relative outperformance after signaling a pro-value tilt for a couple of years,\" strategists led by Tobias Levkovich write in a note today. \"This statistical analysis reviews various economic inputs and back-tests their predictive power; it includes a measure of capacity utilization and consumer confidence amongst other factors, and is currently suggesting investors will need to change portfolio positions sometime in 4Q21 towards growth names.\"</p>\n<p>Easing of supply chain bottlenecks could lessen worries about sharply rising bond yields, which could take a lot of the pressure off concerns of valuation for higher-growth names, Levkovich adds.</p>\n<p>And the rise in prices for value and cyclicals stocks(NYSEARCA:IVE)increases the possibility of results disappointing.</p>\n<p>\"Embedded in share price movement is a set of changing forecasts for sales, orders&nbsp;profitability, etc., and we suspect that companies may be hard pressed to deliver blowout numbers, which could drag names lower,\" he adds \"Our sense is that the need to provide stronger results will be around the fourth quarter leading into 1Q22.\"</p>\n<p>\"Generally speaking, fund managers are not big value fans, but participated in the names as they gained price momentum. Hence, the conviction to stay with the trade is not particularly deep, in our opinion, leading to the willingness to shift back to the growth style almost at every opportunity.\"</p>\n<p>\"Indeed, the recent dip in Treasury yields from March highs seems to have generated some of the relative performance switch over the past couple of months along with a stronger dollar.\"</p>\n<p>Seeking Alpha contributor Jacob Kilby argued earlier this month that thesidelining of Big Tech is only temporary.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2d0783ea029b79bf18711ab8c8e2b5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citi says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCiti says growth stocks can make a second-half comeback: At the Open\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.\nThat's following a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3708014-citi-says-growth-stocks-can-make-a-second-half-comeback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1122985599","content_text":"Stocks index futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX.IND) and Dowfutures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)futures all in the green.\nThat's following a down week where Information Technology(NYSEARCA:XLK)was the only S&P sector in the green.\nAnd growth stocks(NYSEARCA:IVW)will enjoy a better environment, even if 10-year Treasury yield(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT)trends up to 2%, Citi says.\n\"Our lead indicator model has been changing and is now showing a better trend for 1H22 relative outperformance after signaling a pro-value tilt for a couple of years,\" strategists led by Tobias Levkovich write in a note today. \"This statistical analysis reviews various economic inputs and back-tests their predictive power; it includes a measure of capacity utilization and consumer confidence amongst other factors, and is currently suggesting investors will need to change portfolio positions sometime in 4Q21 towards growth names.\"\nEasing of supply chain bottlenecks could lessen worries about sharply rising bond yields, which could take a lot of the pressure off concerns of valuation for higher-growth names, Levkovich adds.\nAnd the rise in prices for value and cyclicals stocks(NYSEARCA:IVE)increases the possibility of results disappointing.\n\"Embedded in share price movement is a set of changing forecasts for sales, orders profitability, etc., and we suspect that companies may be hard pressed to deliver blowout numbers, which could drag names lower,\" he adds \"Our sense is that the need to provide stronger results will be around the fourth quarter leading into 1Q22.\"\n\"Generally speaking, fund managers are not big value fans, but participated in the names as they gained price momentum. Hence, the conviction to stay with the trade is not particularly deep, in our opinion, leading to the willingness to shift back to the growth style almost at every opportunity.\"\n\"Indeed, the recent dip in Treasury yields from March highs seems to have generated some of the relative performance switch over the past couple of months along with a stronger dollar.\"\nSeeking Alpha contributor Jacob Kilby argued earlier this month that thesidelining of Big Tech is only temporary.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167729633,"gmtCreate":1624285420322,"gmtModify":1703832509076,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","listText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","text":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167729633","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145084835","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624280460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145084835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145084835","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If analysts are correct, these high-flying stocks will fizzle out over the next year.","content":"<p>Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the average annual total return for the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> since 1980, including dividends, is north of 11%.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, we see this optimism readily apparent in Wall Street's ratings on stocks. According to <b>FactSet</b>, more than half of all stocks carry a consensus buy rating, 38% have the equivalent of a hold rating, and just 7% are rated as sells. Yet, history shows that far more than 7% of stocks will eventually head lower.</p>\n<p>Based on Wall Street's consensus price targets, the following five ultra-popular stocks are all expected to lose value over the coming 12 months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04ade705354c4825038c4dfcd0187d9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Palantir Technologies: Implied downside of 12%</h3>\n<p>Since its direct listing in late September 2020, data-mining company <b>Palantir Technologies</b> (NYSE:PLTR) has been a favorite among growth and retail investors. But if Wall Street's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year consensus price target proves accurate, Palantir will head in reverse by up to 12%.</p>\n<p>The likeliest reason Wall Street is tempering expectations on Palantir is valuation. Specifically, Palantir ended June 17 with a market cap of nearly $48 billion, but is on track to bring in perhaps $1.5 billion in full-year sales in 2021. That's a multiple of about 32 times sales. Even if Palantir continues to grow its top-line at 30% annually, it could take years for this price-to-sales multiple to come down to anywhere close to the average for cloud stocks.</p>\n<p>Another possible concern is the growth potential for its government-focused Gotham platform. Big government contract wins in the U.S. have been primarily responsible for Palantir's exceptional growth rate. However, there remains an outside chance that President Joe Biden may curb funding to some of the federal agencies that employ Palantir's services.</p>\n<p>Over the long run, I'm optimistic and believe Palantir's platform is unlike anything else available. But tempering near-term expectations given its valuation premium may be warranted.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38605bee8e62f3e8aa414fa24278e7e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Moderna: Implied downside of 11%</h3>\n<p>Biotech stock <b>Moderna</b> (NASDAQ:MRNA) is arguably the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of only three drugmakers to currently have their COVID-19 vaccine approved on an emergency-use authorization (EUA) basis in the United States. But if Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is correct, it's stock is also on its way to a double-digit decline.</p>\n<p>Why the lack of love from Wall Street? The answer looks to be analysts looking to the future. While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is a mainstay in the U.S., and it's likely to play a clear role in other markets, time might prove the company's enemy. Over time, new vaccines are expected to come onto the scene, which'll eat away at Moderna's potential pool of patients.</p>\n<p>The other worry is that no one is exactly certain how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last. If it's a year, Moderna is unlikely to be the only drugmaker supplying booster shots. Meanwhile, if it's longer than a year, it means reduced sales opportunities for the company.</p>\n<p>Based solely on Wall Street's earnings per share consensus in 2021 and 2022, Moderna appears reasonably priced. But with the company staring down a potentially significant haircut in revenue next year as new drugmakers enter the space, caution is advised.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07841e6a8173146a0fbfddf95a0f1ccb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>GameStop: Implied downside of 71%</h3>\n<p>This will probably come as a shock to no one, but Reddit favorite <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME) is fully expected to fall flat on its face. Even though Wall Street's consensus price target for the company has quintupled in recent months, it <i>still</i> implies up to 71% downside over the next year.</p>\n<p>The biggest issue for GameStop is that its valuation has completely detached from its underlying fundamentals. While it's not uncommon for stocks to trade on emotion for short periods of time, operating performance is what always dictates the long-term movement in the share price of a stock. When it comes to operating performance, GameStop has been a dud.</p>\n<p>Although the company's first-quarter fiscal results highlighted a 25% net sales increase from the prior-year period, total sales for the company have been falling precipitously for years. That's because video game retailer GameStop recognized the shift to digital gaming too late, and it's now stuck with its massive portfolio of brick-and-mortar gaming stores. Even though e-commerce sales have been a bright spot for the company, slashing costs and closing stores remains its No. 1 priority.</p>\n<p>With sufficient cash, bankruptcy isn't a concern for GameStop. But without any true top-line growth and the company still losing money, it's an impossible sell at its current price tag.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff785aa0040a5565d474390f58b47a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>Ocugen: Implied downside of 18%</h3>\n<p>Volatile clinical-stage biotech stock <b>Ocugen</b> (NASDAQ:OCGN) may also be in for an unpleasant next 12 months. The company behind an experimental COVID-19 vaccine (Covaxin) and a trio of internally developed eye-blindness candidates is expected to shed 18% of its value, if Wall Street's consensus price target is correct.</p>\n<p>Arguably the biggest issue for Ocugen is the clinical update the company issued on June 10 concerning Covaxin. Even though partner Bharat Biotech led a large clinical study in India that yielded an overall efficacy of 78%, along with 100% efficacy in preventing severe forms of COVID-19, Ocugen announced on June 10 that it would forgo seeking an EUA in the U.S. and would instead file for a biologics license application. In other words, Ocugen's path to a quick emergency approval in the U.S. just flew out the window.</p>\n<p>What's more, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's requested additional information and data on Covaxin. This is a fancy of saying that Ocugen will very likely have to run a clinical study in the U.S. prior to submitting Covaxin for approval. That means added costs and an even longer wait before Ocugen has a chance to penetrate the lucrative U.S. market.</p>\n<p>Though it's impossible to predict how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last, Ocugen's chances of being a significant player in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine space are dwindling.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f6037829ea3fb0ae1cae0b95d8d11e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h3>NVIDIA: Implied downside of 3%</h3>\n<p>Don't adjust your computer, laptop, or smartphone screens -- that really says <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA). Following its incredible run higher (NVIDIA has doubled over the past year), graphics processing unit giant NVIDIA closed 3% above Wall Street's consensus price target, as of June 17.</p>\n<p>One reason for tempered expectations at this point has to be valuation. Even with NVIDIA crushing expectations and seeing strong PC gaming demand, sales growth is expected to slow from an estimated 49% in fiscal 2022 to a high single digit percentage in each of the next two fiscal years. In fact, the company closed at nearly 20 times projected sales for the current fiscal year. That's a bit optimistic given an expected sales growth slowdown.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the other reason Wall Street expects NVIDIA to go sideways is the company's cryptocurrency mining chip segment. While sales of crypto chips could hit $400 million in the current quarter, demand is entirely dependent on the hype surrounding digital currencies and the favorability of technical charts. Crypto is just as well known for its long bear markets as it is for the big gains it's delivered over the past decade. If another lull strikes, a fast-growing ancillary segment for NVIDA could easily become a drag.</p>\n<p>For what it's worth, I see no fundamental reasons to sell NVIDIA if you're already a long-term shareholder. But if you're on the outside looking in, I don't exactly see $746 as an attractive entry point, either.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Stocks Wall Street Views as Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 21:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","OCGN":"Ocugen","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/5-ultra-popular-stocks-wall-street-view-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145084835","content_text":"Generally speaking, it pays to be bullish on Wall Street. Despite navigating its way through Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and more recently the coronavirus crash, the average annual total return for the benchmark S&P 500 since 1980, including dividends, is north of 11%.\nNot surprisingly, we see this optimism readily apparent in Wall Street's ratings on stocks. According to FactSet, more than half of all stocks carry a consensus buy rating, 38% have the equivalent of a hold rating, and just 7% are rated as sells. Yet, history shows that far more than 7% of stocks will eventually head lower.\nBased on Wall Street's consensus price targets, the following five ultra-popular stocks are all expected to lose value over the coming 12 months.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nPalantir Technologies: Implied downside of 12%\nSince its direct listing in late September 2020, data-mining company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has been a favorite among growth and retail investors. But if Wall Street's one-year consensus price target proves accurate, Palantir will head in reverse by up to 12%.\nThe likeliest reason Wall Street is tempering expectations on Palantir is valuation. Specifically, Palantir ended June 17 with a market cap of nearly $48 billion, but is on track to bring in perhaps $1.5 billion in full-year sales in 2021. That's a multiple of about 32 times sales. Even if Palantir continues to grow its top-line at 30% annually, it could take years for this price-to-sales multiple to come down to anywhere close to the average for cloud stocks.\nAnother possible concern is the growth potential for its government-focused Gotham platform. Big government contract wins in the U.S. have been primarily responsible for Palantir's exceptional growth rate. However, there remains an outside chance that President Joe Biden may curb funding to some of the federal agencies that employ Palantir's services.\nOver the long run, I'm optimistic and believe Palantir's platform is unlike anything else available. But tempering near-term expectations given its valuation premium may be warranted.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nModerna: Implied downside of 11%\nBiotech stock Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is arguably the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It's one of only three drugmakers to currently have their COVID-19 vaccine approved on an emergency-use authorization (EUA) basis in the United States. But if Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is correct, it's stock is also on its way to a double-digit decline.\nWhy the lack of love from Wall Street? The answer looks to be analysts looking to the future. While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is a mainstay in the U.S., and it's likely to play a clear role in other markets, time might prove the company's enemy. Over time, new vaccines are expected to come onto the scene, which'll eat away at Moderna's potential pool of patients.\nThe other worry is that no one is exactly certain how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last. If it's a year, Moderna is unlikely to be the only drugmaker supplying booster shots. Meanwhile, if it's longer than a year, it means reduced sales opportunities for the company.\nBased solely on Wall Street's earnings per share consensus in 2021 and 2022, Moderna appears reasonably priced. But with the company staring down a potentially significant haircut in revenue next year as new drugmakers enter the space, caution is advised.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nGameStop: Implied downside of 71%\nThis will probably come as a shock to no one, but Reddit favorite GameStop (NYSE:GME) is fully expected to fall flat on its face. Even though Wall Street's consensus price target for the company has quintupled in recent months, it still implies up to 71% downside over the next year.\nThe biggest issue for GameStop is that its valuation has completely detached from its underlying fundamentals. While it's not uncommon for stocks to trade on emotion for short periods of time, operating performance is what always dictates the long-term movement in the share price of a stock. When it comes to operating performance, GameStop has been a dud.\nAlthough the company's first-quarter fiscal results highlighted a 25% net sales increase from the prior-year period, total sales for the company have been falling precipitously for years. That's because video game retailer GameStop recognized the shift to digital gaming too late, and it's now stuck with its massive portfolio of brick-and-mortar gaming stores. Even though e-commerce sales have been a bright spot for the company, slashing costs and closing stores remains its No. 1 priority.\nWith sufficient cash, bankruptcy isn't a concern for GameStop. But without any true top-line growth and the company still losing money, it's an impossible sell at its current price tag.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nOcugen: Implied downside of 18%\nVolatile clinical-stage biotech stock Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) may also be in for an unpleasant next 12 months. The company behind an experimental COVID-19 vaccine (Covaxin) and a trio of internally developed eye-blindness candidates is expected to shed 18% of its value, if Wall Street's consensus price target is correct.\nArguably the biggest issue for Ocugen is the clinical update the company issued on June 10 concerning Covaxin. Even though partner Bharat Biotech led a large clinical study in India that yielded an overall efficacy of 78%, along with 100% efficacy in preventing severe forms of COVID-19, Ocugen announced on June 10 that it would forgo seeking an EUA in the U.S. and would instead file for a biologics license application. In other words, Ocugen's path to a quick emergency approval in the U.S. just flew out the window.\nWhat's more, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's requested additional information and data on Covaxin. This is a fancy of saying that Ocugen will very likely have to run a clinical study in the U.S. prior to submitting Covaxin for approval. That means added costs and an even longer wait before Ocugen has a chance to penetrate the lucrative U.S. market.\nThough it's impossible to predict how long COVID-19 vaccine immunity will last, Ocugen's chances of being a significant player in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine space are dwindling.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nNVIDIA: Implied downside of 3%\nDon't adjust your computer, laptop, or smartphone screens -- that really says NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Following its incredible run higher (NVIDIA has doubled over the past year), graphics processing unit giant NVIDIA closed 3% above Wall Street's consensus price target, as of June 17.\nOne reason for tempered expectations at this point has to be valuation. Even with NVIDIA crushing expectations and seeing strong PC gaming demand, sales growth is expected to slow from an estimated 49% in fiscal 2022 to a high single digit percentage in each of the next two fiscal years. In fact, the company closed at nearly 20 times projected sales for the current fiscal year. That's a bit optimistic given an expected sales growth slowdown.\nPerhaps the other reason Wall Street expects NVIDIA to go sideways is the company's cryptocurrency mining chip segment. While sales of crypto chips could hit $400 million in the current quarter, demand is entirely dependent on the hype surrounding digital currencies and the favorability of technical charts. Crypto is just as well known for its long bear markets as it is for the big gains it's delivered over the past decade. If another lull strikes, a fast-growing ancillary segment for NVIDA could easily become a drag.\nFor what it's worth, I see no fundamental reasons to sell NVIDIA if you're already a long-term shareholder. But if you're on the outside looking in, I don't exactly see $746 as an attractive entry point, either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162346428,"gmtCreate":1624036821364,"gmtModify":1703827417278,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","listText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","text":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162346428","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144077147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624025701,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144077147?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144077147","media":"Zacks","summary":"Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Elec","content":"<p><b>Roku, Inc. </b>ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.</p>\n<p>These models will be available in both HD and 4K UHD Resolution. The sizes for the smart TV will range from 32-65 inch.</p>\n<p>The TVs have been made available online at currys.co.uk. UK-based consumers can avail a discount voucher code of €20 following online registration.</p>\n<p>These TV models will be offering consumers automatic updates, customizable home screen, free and paid streaming, private listening through the free Roku mobile app, among other features.</p>\n<p>Starting at €229, TCL’s Roku TV models will offer streaming services like <b>Netflix</b> NFLX, Prime Video, <b>Walt Disney</b>’s DIS Disney+, <b>Apple</b>’s AAPL Apple TV+, NOW and others. These TV models also carry the Roku Channel, which offers 25000+ free movies and TV episodes.</p>\n<h3>Roku, Inc. Price and Consensus</h3>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e50fe4d3bb710056cf8dc2ac53cd977\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>Roku, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Roku, Inc. Quote</span></p>\n<h3>Strong Content Lineup to Fend Off Competition</h3>\n<p>Expansion into the U.K. with the TCL partnership will boost Roku’s top-line growth. Apart from hardware enhancements, the company keeps innovating and adding new content to its portfolio to increase consumer engagements and attract consumers to its platform.</p>\n<p>For instance, Roku recently announced second season of Kevin Hart starrer <i>Die Hart</i>, named <i>Die Harter</i>. <i>Die Hart</i> is a comedy action series in which Kevin Hart plays a fictionalized version of himself to land a life-changing role of an action hero.</p>\n<p>Also, earlier this month the company announced <i>Roku Recommends</i>, which is a weekly entertainment show. In this 15-minute show, Roku will help consumers find movies and shows that are trending on the platform or what to watch next on the platform.</p>\n<p>Further, Roku announced that it has entered into an agreement with Saban Films. Per this agreement, the Roku Channel will get streaming rights to movies released by Saban Films and a selection of Saban’s 2021 film slate will release exclusively on the Roku Channel for free.</p>\n<p>Markedly, Roku faces stiff competition from other companies that provide TV streaming devices including Apple TV, Google TV and Amazon.</p>\n<p>In April, Apple announced the launch of the next generation of Apple TV 4K. This next generation offers A12 Bionic chip that offers enhanced graphics performance, video decoding and audio processing. This improved picture quality provides enhanced consumer experience and increases consumer traction. Moreover, Google TV will be launched by TCL in the coming months.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Roku is riding on surge in premium subscription signups for the Roku Channel. Launch of third-party streaming channels including Peacock, Disney+ and HBO Max is aiding user growth.</p>\n<p>Moreover, streaming hours growth is likely to boost TV streaming advertising on Roku’s platform, driving advertising revenues in the near term for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. </p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU Partners With TCL to Launch New TV models in the U.K.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 22:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.\nThese models will be available in both HD and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","ROKU":"Roku Inc","DIS":"迪士尼","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-partners-tcl-launch-tv-131501084.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2144077147","content_text":"Roku, Inc. ROKU is expanding its footprint in the U.K. Recently, the company partnered with TCS Electronics to launch TCL Roku TV models in the country.\nThese models will be available in both HD and 4K UHD Resolution. The sizes for the smart TV will range from 32-65 inch.\nThe TVs have been made available online at currys.co.uk. UK-based consumers can avail a discount voucher code of €20 following online registration.\nThese TV models will be offering consumers automatic updates, customizable home screen, free and paid streaming, private listening through the free Roku mobile app, among other features.\nStarting at €229, TCL’s Roku TV models will offer streaming services like Netflix NFLX, Prime Video, Walt Disney’s DIS Disney+, Apple’s AAPL Apple TV+, NOW and others. These TV models also carry the Roku Channel, which offers 25000+ free movies and TV episodes.\nRoku, Inc. Price and Consensus\nRoku, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Roku, Inc. Quote\nStrong Content Lineup to Fend Off Competition\nExpansion into the U.K. with the TCL partnership will boost Roku’s top-line growth. Apart from hardware enhancements, the company keeps innovating and adding new content to its portfolio to increase consumer engagements and attract consumers to its platform.\nFor instance, Roku recently announced second season of Kevin Hart starrer Die Hart, named Die Harter. Die Hart is a comedy action series in which Kevin Hart plays a fictionalized version of himself to land a life-changing role of an action hero.\nAlso, earlier this month the company announced Roku Recommends, which is a weekly entertainment show. In this 15-minute show, Roku will help consumers find movies and shows that are trending on the platform or what to watch next on the platform.\nFurther, Roku announced that it has entered into an agreement with Saban Films. Per this agreement, the Roku Channel will get streaming rights to movies released by Saban Films and a selection of Saban’s 2021 film slate will release exclusively on the Roku Channel for free.\nMarkedly, Roku faces stiff competition from other companies that provide TV streaming devices including Apple TV, Google TV and Amazon.\nIn April, Apple announced the launch of the next generation of Apple TV 4K. This next generation offers A12 Bionic chip that offers enhanced graphics performance, video decoding and audio processing. This improved picture quality provides enhanced consumer experience and increases consumer traction. Moreover, Google TV will be launched by TCL in the coming months.\nNevertheless, Roku is riding on surge in premium subscription signups for the Roku Channel. Launch of third-party streaming channels including Peacock, Disney+ and HBO Max is aiding user growth.\nMoreover, streaming hours growth is likely to boost TV streaming advertising on Roku’s platform, driving advertising revenues in the near term for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162348426,"gmtCreate":1624036748065,"gmtModify":1703827416308,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162348426","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119296361?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p>\n<p>There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p>\n<p>After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p>\n<p>The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p>\n<p>Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p>\n<p>Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","C":"花旗","GS":"高盛","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}