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2021-07-01

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Brokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?

2021-06-30

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Fed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?

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Which stocks get the most roll call?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144302321","media":"第一财经","summary":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14","content":"<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage gold stocks released in July! 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Which stocks get the most roll call?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144302321","content_text":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14家券商公布了7月月度投资组合，涉及非银、电气、轻工、机械、化工、家电等多个领域。\n\n哪些个股收获点名最多？\n据不完全统计，在各家券商的“金股”名单中，获机构推荐次数最多的依旧是“券商茅”东方财富，共获得5家券商的推荐，该股6月月内累计涨3.11%，最新收盘价为32.79元。\n此外，药明康德获得国泰君安、兴业证券、浙商证券3家券商的推荐。该股6月内涨幅明显，达12.62%，最新收盘价为156.59元。\n从涨跌幅来看，获两家及以上券商推荐的个股中，港股爱帝宫涨幅最大，该股6月内大涨65.75%，最新收盘价为1.21港元；跌幅最大的是泸州老窖，6月内跌超14%，报235.94元。\n\n后市怎么走？\n展望后市，券商普遍表示，7月股市将持续震荡，而中报行情将成为市场亮点。\n华金证券指出，7月份扰动增加，震荡恐将加剧，但在海内外流动性预期暂时好转背景下，结构性行情有望延续。\n浙商证券也指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n银河证券认为，7月是中报及中报预告披露期，业绩高增长主导结构性机会。经济金融环境暂维持相对利好权益资产，但是A股市场已反弹至高位，增量资金进场缓慢，后续需谨慎追涨，适当降低预期。\n西南证券也认为，经过前期的快速上涨，同时随着中报陆陆续续公布，中报行情有望迎来业绩兑现期，需要适当转向防御，以巩固前期的上涨成果。\n哪些行业最受青睐？\n配置方向上，券商依旧看好顺周期板块未来行情，计算机、医药、新能源等成长板块也受到券商关注，此外，关注中报业绩高增长主线。\n开源证券研报指出，周期股的重定价时刻正在来临，当投资者认识到供给约束的持续性与通胀并非短期，那么在业绩持续验证下，周期股的长期盈利能力将在全市场内显得极具性价比。同时，环境的变化也正在扭转高杠杆经营公司长期的不利地位。开始重新把前期回调较多，受到市场约束较多的成长型周期股纳入到推荐中。\n兴业证券研报称，成长仍是主旋律但是要立足性价比，中报行情可布局绩优股。成长板块围绕4条主线，找长期性价比合适的机会：\n\n 1、AIoT（计算机、通信、电子）；\n\n\n 2、医药（医疗器械、医疗服务）；\n\n\n 3、新能源链条（新能源材料、锂电设备、汽车、智能驾驶）；\n\n\n 4、高端制造设备（半导体设备、军工）。\n\n同时，兴业证券强调，中报行情不容忽视，如机械、军工、化工、交运等行业的绩优股。\n银河证券也认为，景气度向上、中报业绩高增长是主线：关注需求强劲的上游周期品；医疗美容、化妆品、智能家电等消费升级主题；产业数字化、碳中和等国家战略方向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151995070,"gmtCreate":1625061016890,"gmtModify":1703735113068,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087185200142770","authorIdStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151995070","repostId":"1108833039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108833039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625057247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108833039?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108833039","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve recently released its latest notes, analyzing the financial spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets. The findings help explain why the impact of the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months on the financial conditions of emerging market economies has been rather modest: because the rise in yields appears to be driven largely by improving U.S. growth prospects. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p><p>Higher US interest rates are generally seen as bad news for emerging market economies (EMEs) as they increase their debt burden, trigger capital outflows, and often lead to a tightening financial environment that could trigger a financial crisis. In fact, as shown below, the rise in Federal Funds rate during the Volcker anti-inflation period in the early 1980s (black line) was correlated with a sharp rise in the incidence of financial crises in emerging market countries (green bar). However, in other cases, such as the mid-2000s, emerging market economies withstood the brunt of rising US interest rates with little difficulty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the so-called \"spillover effect\" of US monetary policy on emerging markets different? Our recent research shows that the financial spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets depend on two key factors:</p><p>The first is the reason for the change in interest rates in the United States. Higher interest rates, driven by favorable growth prospects, could have a relatively benign impact on emerging financial markets, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth from increased import demand from U.S. trading partners, as well as benefits from increased investor confidence, should both offset the cost of rate hike. Conversely, if rate hike is mainly due to inflation concerns or a shift in hawkish Fed policy (which we collectively refer to as monetary news), it could cause more disruption to emerging markets.</p><p>The second key factor affecting the spillover effect of US monetary policy is the situation of emerging market countries themselves; The financial conditions of economies with higher macroeconomic vulnerability tend to be more sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates.</p><p>Our findings help explain why the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months has had a rather modest impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. Although the recent inflation data has risen, this is likely to be largely due to rising expectations of a rapid recovery in the US economy, which will benefit the overall development of the global economy. Moreover, despite significant debt growth in emerging market economies in recent years, exacerbated by the outbreak of the pandemic, macroeconomic vulnerability remains lower than in the turbulent years of the 1990s and 1980s: macroeconomic policies are more prudent, currencies are more flexible in responding to crises, and the financial sector is more resilient.</p><p>In the remainder of this report, we will summarize the research behind the above findings and present new evidence on the impact of higher US Treasury Bond yields over the longer term on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. We first look at the changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield over a one-hour window around two different events — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the U.S. Jobs Report, and then we categorize the FOMC meeting and the jobs report according to whether they primarily convey growth news (i.e., information about future growth prospects) or monetary news (i.e., information about future inflation or the Fed's reaction mechanism).</p><p>To do this, we looked at the synchronous movement of the S&P 500. Therefore, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 are moving in line, then the FOMC announcement and non-farm payrolls data will be seen as primarily conveying economic growth news. For example, an FOMC communication that increases investor confidence in U.S. economic growth could cause U.S. Treasury Bond yields and stock prices to rise hand in hand, and a very weak jobs report indicating poor growth and earnings prospects could cause yields and stock prices to fall. The blue dot scatter plot in Figure 2 shows a combination of changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 triggered by all FOMC meetings and jobs reports since 2010, which we classify as primarily conveying the news of growth. These figures account for more than a third of the FOMC meetings and jobs reports, respectively.</p><p>In contrast, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 move in opposite directions after the meeting, we view the FOMC meeting and the jobs report as primarily communicating the message of monetary policy. For example, the FOMC's announcement of rising inflationary pressures may be interpreted as a more hawkish policy stance, which may push up US Treasury Bond yields and lower the S&P 500 index, as rising real discount rates will put pressure on stock valuations. Alternatively, a jobs report could cause yields to fall but shares to rise because investors may see it as weak enough to avoid future monetary tightening by the Fed. The red diamond scatter plot in Figure 2 shows the observations we classify as primarily conveying monetary messages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Armed with this classification, we next estimate how emerging market asset prices-local currency bond yields, stock indices, credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and currencies-react to the movement of U.S. Treasury Bond yields. We conducted panel regression analyses of the changes in these four asset prices versus the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield before and after the FOMC meeting and the jobs report, respectively, using a sample of 22 emerging market economies from January to March 22, 2010. We allow estimated responses to vary based on (1) whether the FOMC or employment report is classified as communicating growth or monetary news according to the methodology described above; (2) The macroeconomic vulnerability of emerging market economies themselves before the outbreak of the incident. To quantify the vulnerability of emerging market economies, we used a composite measure developed by Ahmed et al. (2017) that combines information on six indicators: inflation, current account deficit, international reserves, government debt, external debt, and private sector credit growth.</p><p>Our key results are shown in Figure 3, which shows the impact of a 100 basis point increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield on asset prices in emerging market economies. The blue bar indicates the spillover effect of growth news and the red bar indicates the spillover effect of money news. These charts speak volumes about our two important findings:</p><p>(1) The change of Treasury Bond yield driven by monetary news has a much greater impact on asset prices in emerging market economies than the change of yield driven by growth news;</p><p>(2) Asset prices in vulnerable economies are more sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury Bond yields than less vulnerable economies. Higher yields fueled by monetary policy news have hit more vulnerable economies hard: local currency bond yields have risen more than twice as much as US Treasury Bond yields, CDS spreads have soared, and share prices and currencies have collapsed. Conversely, when rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields reflect growth news, the impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies is generally limited and, statistically speaking, almost zero in most cases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, rising US Treasury Bond yields may lead to a noticeable tightening of financial conditions in emerging market economies, but this impact largely depends on the drivers of rising yields and the domestic conditions of emerging market economies. Our findings help explain why the financial spillovers of rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields to emerging markets have been limited so far this year, as the yield rise appears to be driven primarily by the improved U.S. growth outlook. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人民币交易与研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 20:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve recently released its latest notes, analyzing the financial spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets. The findings help explain why the impact of the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months on the financial conditions of emerging market economies has been rather modest: because the rise in yields appears to be driven largely by improving U.S. growth prospects. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p><p>Higher US interest rates are generally seen as bad news for emerging market economies (EMEs) as they increase their debt burden, trigger capital outflows, and often lead to a tightening financial environment that could trigger a financial crisis. In fact, as shown below, the rise in Federal Funds rate during the Volcker anti-inflation period in the early 1980s (black line) was correlated with a sharp rise in the incidence of financial crises in emerging market countries (green bar). However, in other cases, such as the mid-2000s, emerging market economies withstood the brunt of rising US interest rates with little difficulty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the so-called \"spillover effect\" of US monetary policy on emerging markets different? Our recent research shows that the financial spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets depend on two key factors:</p><p>The first is the reason for the change in interest rates in the United States. Higher interest rates, driven by favorable growth prospects, could have a relatively benign impact on emerging financial markets, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth from increased import demand from U.S. trading partners, as well as benefits from increased investor confidence, should both offset the cost of rate hike. Conversely, if rate hike is mainly due to inflation concerns or a shift in hawkish Fed policy (which we collectively refer to as monetary news), it could cause more disruption to emerging markets.</p><p>The second key factor affecting the spillover effect of US monetary policy is the situation of emerging market countries themselves; The financial conditions of economies with higher macroeconomic vulnerability tend to be more sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates.</p><p>Our findings help explain why the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months has had a rather modest impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. Although the recent inflation data has risen, this is likely to be largely due to rising expectations of a rapid recovery in the US economy, which will benefit the overall development of the global economy. Moreover, despite significant debt growth in emerging market economies in recent years, exacerbated by the outbreak of the pandemic, macroeconomic vulnerability remains lower than in the turbulent years of the 1990s and 1980s: macroeconomic policies are more prudent, currencies are more flexible in responding to crises, and the financial sector is more resilient.</p><p>In the remainder of this report, we will summarize the research behind the above findings and present new evidence on the impact of higher US Treasury Bond yields over the longer term on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. We first look at the changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield over a one-hour window around two different events — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the U.S. Jobs Report, and then we categorize the FOMC meeting and the jobs report according to whether they primarily convey growth news (i.e., information about future growth prospects) or monetary news (i.e., information about future inflation or the Fed's reaction mechanism).</p><p>To do this, we looked at the synchronous movement of the S&P 500. Therefore, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 are moving in line, then the FOMC announcement and non-farm payrolls data will be seen as primarily conveying economic growth news. For example, an FOMC communication that increases investor confidence in U.S. economic growth could cause U.S. Treasury Bond yields and stock prices to rise hand in hand, and a very weak jobs report indicating poor growth and earnings prospects could cause yields and stock prices to fall. The blue dot scatter plot in Figure 2 shows a combination of changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 triggered by all FOMC meetings and jobs reports since 2010, which we classify as primarily conveying the news of growth. These figures account for more than a third of the FOMC meetings and jobs reports, respectively.</p><p>In contrast, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 move in opposite directions after the meeting, we view the FOMC meeting and the jobs report as primarily communicating the message of monetary policy. For example, the FOMC's announcement of rising inflationary pressures may be interpreted as a more hawkish policy stance, which may push up US Treasury Bond yields and lower the S&P 500 index, as rising real discount rates will put pressure on stock valuations. Alternatively, a jobs report could cause yields to fall but shares to rise because investors may see it as weak enough to avoid future monetary tightening by the Fed. The red diamond scatter plot in Figure 2 shows the observations we classify as primarily conveying monetary messages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Armed with this classification, we next estimate how emerging market asset prices-local currency bond yields, stock indices, credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and currencies-react to the movement of U.S. Treasury Bond yields. We conducted panel regression analyses of the changes in these four asset prices versus the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield before and after the FOMC meeting and the jobs report, respectively, using a sample of 22 emerging market economies from January to March 22, 2010. We allow estimated responses to vary based on (1) whether the FOMC or employment report is classified as communicating growth or monetary news according to the methodology described above; (2) The macroeconomic vulnerability of emerging market economies themselves before the outbreak of the incident. To quantify the vulnerability of emerging market economies, we used a composite measure developed by Ahmed et al. (2017) that combines information on six indicators: inflation, current account deficit, international reserves, government debt, external debt, and private sector credit growth.</p><p>Our key results are shown in Figure 3, which shows the impact of a 100 basis point increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield on asset prices in emerging market economies. The blue bar indicates the spillover effect of growth news and the red bar indicates the spillover effect of money news. These charts speak volumes about our two important findings:</p><p>(1) The change of Treasury Bond yield driven by monetary news has a much greater impact on asset prices in emerging market economies than the change of yield driven by growth news;</p><p>(2) Asset prices in vulnerable economies are more sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury Bond yields than less vulnerable economies. Higher yields fueled by monetary policy news have hit more vulnerable economies hard: local currency bond yields have risen more than twice as much as US Treasury Bond yields, CDS spreads have soared, and share prices and currencies have collapsed. Conversely, when rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields reflect growth news, the impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies is generally limited and, statistically speaking, almost zero in most cases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, rising US Treasury Bond yields may lead to a noticeable tightening of financial conditions in emerging market economies, but this impact largely depends on the drivers of rising yields and the domestic conditions of emerging market economies. Our findings help explain why the financial spillovers of rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields to emerging markets have been limited so far this year, as the yield rise appears to be driven primarily by the improved U.S. growth outlook. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg\">人民币交易与研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108833039","content_text":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。\n\n美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：\n第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。\n影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。\n我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。\n在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。\n为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。\n相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。\n\n有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。\n我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：\n(1)   货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；\n(2)   相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。\n\n综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153797116,"gmtCreate":1625048587535,"gmtModify":1703734831309,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087185200142770","authorIdStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153797116","repostId":"1134674606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153797370,"gmtCreate":1625048568290,"gmtModify":1703734831475,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087185200142770","authorIdStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":88,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153797370","repostId":"1100844519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100844519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624850864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100844519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100844519","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通","content":"<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1st (Thursday), Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day. The specific arrangements are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1. The market opens as usual on July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares, Singapore markets, etc. trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Wednesday, June 30 to Thursday, July 1 and open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will not be available on Thursday, July 1, and will be open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1st (Thursday), Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day. The specific arrangements are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1. The market opens as usual on July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares, Singapore markets, etc. trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Wednesday, June 30 to Thursday, July 1 and open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will not be available on Thursday, July 1, and will be open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6adcf1f575211fc4f9ca7f666658417","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100844519","content_text":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通：\n6月30日（周三）至7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153794445,"gmtCreate":1625048544287,"gmtModify":1703734830644,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087185200142770","authorIdStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153794445","repostId":"1140810871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153791403,"gmtCreate":1625048182902,"gmtModify":1703734822044,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087185200142770","authorIdStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153791403","repostId":"1185458938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185458938","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625045337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185458938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 17:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Listing is about to come, one article to understand LegalZoom, an e-commerce in the legal profession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185458938","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"提高IPO价格，每股定价28美元\n当地时间6月29日，LegalZoom.com, Inc 宣布将提升公司的公开发行价至28美元，高于此前计划的24-27美元区间。此外，LegalZoom公开发行19","content":"<p><b>Raised IPO price, priced at $28 per share</b></p><p>On June 29th, local time,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a></b><b>Announced that it would raise the company's public offering price to $28,</b>Higher than the previously planned $24-27 range. In addition, LegalZoom has a public offering of 19.12 million shares and plans to raise $XX billion. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are the underwriters of this new share offering.</p><p><b>Company Business Profile</b></p><p>LegalZoom primarily provides legal software and services to small businesses and individuals in the United States. The company's chief executive officer is Dan Wernikoff, who joined the company in October 2019 and was previously executive vice president and general manager of Intuit Excise Group.</p><p><b>The company's main products include: business formation, intellectual property and estate planning.</b>So-called business formation refers to choosing a business structure and quickly and easily forming an LLC, corporation, sole proprietorship, or partnership.</p><p>LegalZoom has grown from companies including LucasZoom, Francisco Partners, BSG, Institutional Venture Partners, KPCB (Kleiner Perkins), GPI Capital Gemini And at least $71 million in equity investment from investors including TCV and TCV.</p><p><b>Valuation: $5 billion sprint</b></p><p>As early as 2012, LegalZoom.com Inc. applied for listing, but the listing was later delayed. The company withdrew its application two years later. This is the second time the company has initiated a listing application. After several years of development, LegalZoom hopes to be valued at more than $5 billion at the time of this listing.</p><p>LegalZoom will be worth between $4.7 billion and $5.3 billion, depending on the offering price and whether the underwriters fully exercise the over-allotment option, according to a revised filing this Monday.</p><p>LegalZoom will hit the Nasdaq tonight under the ticker symbol LZ.</p><p><b>Financial Position</b></p><p>During the COVID pandemic, LegalZoom's revenue grew 15.2% from $408.4 million in 2019 to $471 million in 2020. In the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue rose to $134.6 million from $105.8 million a year earlier. In addition, data for the first quarter of this year showed that a total of 276,000 purchase transactions were completed in the first quarter, with an average transaction order size of $488.</p><p>LegalZoom's operating cash flow is also increasing, with $141.2 million in cash still on the balance sheet, according to the data.</p><p>Small business applications have surged during the Covid pandemic, with small business applications making up a large share of the new business formation market last year. Preliminary documents filed by the company in May show that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new companies are using the services provided by LegalZoom.</p><p>The filing also says LegalZoom processed 25,000 trademark applications last year, or 6% of all U.S. registrations.</p><p><b>OUTLOOK</b></p><p><b>Management sees the addressable market as close to $49 billion. The amount includes $18.3 billion in business formation services, $21.5 billion in additional small business services throughout the business lifecycle, and $8.8 billion in consumer estate planning services.</b></p><p>LegalZoom hopes to continue its growth by entering adjacent service areas, providing additional access to APIs to third-party solution providers, and offering services with higher value and higher prices to sustain its performance growth.</p><p>Currently, major contenders or other industry players include: BozFilings, LegalShield, MyCorporation, etc.</p><p><b>IPO related</b></p><p>In a June 21 filing, LegalZoom said entities associated with TCV Investments, the private equity arm of Menlo Park-based TCMI Inc., agreed to purchase $90 million of shares through a private placement.</p><p>Additionally, investment management firm BlackRock Inc. and affiliated entities of Neuberger Berman Group have both expressed interest in buying $75 million in IPO shares, according to the filing.</p><p>LegalZoom has granted the underwriters an option to purchase approximately 2.9 million additional shares for over-allotment.</p><p>In total, the company expects to have about 194.1 million shares outstanding after the IPO, or about 196.9 million shares if underwriters exercise all of their over-allotment options, according to a June 21 filing.</p><p>LegalZoom estimates that the IPO and private placement will raise $540.8 million, or $609.9 million if underwriters fully exercise their option to buy shares within the $25.50 midpoint range.</p><p>The company plans to use the proceeds to repay $523 million in debt starting in 2018.</p><p><b>conclusion</b></p><p>It can be seen that the main purpose of LegalZoom's listing financing is to repay debts. The financial situation indicates that the company is growing its top line and gross profit and gross profit margin, but will have an operating loss in the first quarter of this year, along with increasing cash flow generated from operations.</p><p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021 was an impressive $93.7 million.</p><p>As revenue increased, selling and marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue increased significantly; Its sales and marketing efficiency has been stable at 0.4x.</p><p>Management believes that the market opportunity for providing legal services to small businesses and individuals in the United States is considerable.</p><p>JPMorgan was one of the underwriters of the offering, and for nearly a year, JPMorgan-led IPOs have delivered an average return of 38.9% since the IPO, a moderate performance among all underwriters.</p><p>One noteworthy piece of information is the company's subscription retention rate in USD. This is a glaring omission for a company where a significant portion of its revenue comes from subscriptions and could mean the results aren't significant because management didn't disclose them.</p><p>As for valuation, compared to the median valuation multiple of publicly traded SaaS companies as of May 31, 2021, as compiled by SaaS Capital, the market valuation is 14.5x, as shown in the chart below:</p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed410a32c81b5b4664ffdbadd51cf496\" tg-width=\"1093\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the price-to-sales ratio of LegalZoom is 9.91. From the perspective of total valuation, the pricing of IPO seems reasonable. An IPO is worth considering, considering that the company is growing its top line fast, making a profit every year, and generating a lot of free cash flow while being reasonably priced for the IPO.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Listing is about to come, one article to understand LegalZoom, an e-commerce in the legal profession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nListing is about to come, one article to understand LegalZoom, an e-commerce in the legal profession\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 17:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Raised IPO price, priced at $28 per share</b></p><p>On June 29th, local time,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a></b><b>Announced that it would raise the company's public offering price to $28,</b>Higher than the previously planned $24-27 range. In addition, LegalZoom has a public offering of 19.12 million shares and plans to raise $XX billion. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are the underwriters of this new share offering.</p><p><b>Company Business Profile</b></p><p>LegalZoom primarily provides legal software and services to small businesses and individuals in the United States. The company's chief executive officer is Dan Wernikoff, who joined the company in October 2019 and was previously executive vice president and general manager of Intuit Excise Group.</p><p><b>The company's main products include: business formation, intellectual property and estate planning.</b>So-called business formation refers to choosing a business structure and quickly and easily forming an LLC, corporation, sole proprietorship, or partnership.</p><p>LegalZoom has grown from companies including LucasZoom, Francisco Partners, BSG, Institutional Venture Partners, KPCB (Kleiner Perkins), GPI Capital Gemini And at least $71 million in equity investment from investors including TCV and TCV.</p><p><b>Valuation: $5 billion sprint</b></p><p>As early as 2012, LegalZoom.com Inc. applied for listing, but the listing was later delayed. The company withdrew its application two years later. This is the second time the company has initiated a listing application. After several years of development, LegalZoom hopes to be valued at more than $5 billion at the time of this listing.</p><p>LegalZoom will be worth between $4.7 billion and $5.3 billion, depending on the offering price and whether the underwriters fully exercise the over-allotment option, according to a revised filing this Monday.</p><p>LegalZoom will hit the Nasdaq tonight under the ticker symbol LZ.</p><p><b>Financial Position</b></p><p>During the COVID pandemic, LegalZoom's revenue grew 15.2% from $408.4 million in 2019 to $471 million in 2020. In the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue rose to $134.6 million from $105.8 million a year earlier. In addition, data for the first quarter of this year showed that a total of 276,000 purchase transactions were completed in the first quarter, with an average transaction order size of $488.</p><p>LegalZoom's operating cash flow is also increasing, with $141.2 million in cash still on the balance sheet, according to the data.</p><p>Small business applications have surged during the Covid pandemic, with small business applications making up a large share of the new business formation market last year. Preliminary documents filed by the company in May show that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new companies are using the services provided by LegalZoom.</p><p>The filing also says LegalZoom processed 25,000 trademark applications last year, or 6% of all U.S. registrations.</p><p><b>OUTLOOK</b></p><p><b>Management sees the addressable market as close to $49 billion. The amount includes $18.3 billion in business formation services, $21.5 billion in additional small business services throughout the business lifecycle, and $8.8 billion in consumer estate planning services.</b></p><p>LegalZoom hopes to continue its growth by entering adjacent service areas, providing additional access to APIs to third-party solution providers, and offering services with higher value and higher prices to sustain its performance growth.</p><p>Currently, major contenders or other industry players include: BozFilings, LegalShield, MyCorporation, etc.</p><p><b>IPO related</b></p><p>In a June 21 filing, LegalZoom said entities associated with TCV Investments, the private equity arm of Menlo Park-based TCMI Inc., agreed to purchase $90 million of shares through a private placement.</p><p>Additionally, investment management firm BlackRock Inc. and affiliated entities of Neuberger Berman Group have both expressed interest in buying $75 million in IPO shares, according to the filing.</p><p>LegalZoom has granted the underwriters an option to purchase approximately 2.9 million additional shares for over-allotment.</p><p>In total, the company expects to have about 194.1 million shares outstanding after the IPO, or about 196.9 million shares if underwriters exercise all of their over-allotment options, according to a June 21 filing.</p><p>LegalZoom estimates that the IPO and private placement will raise $540.8 million, or $609.9 million if underwriters fully exercise their option to buy shares within the $25.50 midpoint range.</p><p>The company plans to use the proceeds to repay $523 million in debt starting in 2018.</p><p><b>conclusion</b></p><p>It can be seen that the main purpose of LegalZoom's listing financing is to repay debts. The financial situation indicates that the company is growing its top line and gross profit and gross profit margin, but will have an operating loss in the first quarter of this year, along with increasing cash flow generated from operations.</p><p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021 was an impressive $93.7 million.</p><p>As revenue increased, selling and marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue increased significantly; Its sales and marketing efficiency has been stable at 0.4x.</p><p>Management believes that the market opportunity for providing legal services to small businesses and individuals in the United States is considerable.</p><p>JPMorgan was one of the underwriters of the offering, and for nearly a year, JPMorgan-led IPOs have delivered an average return of 38.9% since the IPO, a moderate performance among all underwriters.</p><p>One noteworthy piece of information is the company's subscription retention rate in USD. This is a glaring omission for a company where a significant portion of its revenue comes from subscriptions and could mean the results aren't significant because management didn't disclose them.</p><p>As for valuation, compared to the median valuation multiple of publicly traded SaaS companies as of May 31, 2021, as compiled by SaaS Capital, the market valuation is 14.5x, as shown in the chart below:</p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed410a32c81b5b4664ffdbadd51cf496\" tg-width=\"1093\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the price-to-sales ratio of LegalZoom is 9.91. From the perspective of total valuation, the pricing of IPO seems reasonable. An IPO is worth considering, considering that the company is growing its top line fast, making a profit every year, and generating a lot of free cash flow while being reasonably priced for the IPO.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519b9f21c1c77b10d007088e5fb8d666","relate_stocks":{"LZ":"LegalZoom.com, Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185458938","content_text":"提高IPO价格，每股定价28美元\n当地时间6月29日，LegalZoom.com, Inc 宣布将提升公司的公开发行价至28美元，高于此前计划的24-27美元区间。此外，LegalZoom公开发行1912万股，计划筹资XX亿美元。摩根大通、摩根士丹利为本次新股发售的承销商。\n公司业务简介\nLegalZoom主要为美国的小型企业和个人提供法律软件和服务。公司首席执行官为丹·韦尼科夫 (Dan Wernikoff)，Wernikoff于2019年10月加入公司，曾任 Intuit消费税集团执行副总裁兼总经理。\n公司主要产品包括：企业组建，知识产权和遗产规划。所谓的企业组建指的是选择业务结构并快速轻松地组建有限责任公司、公司、独资企业或合伙企业。\nLegalZoom已从包括 LucasZoom、Francisco Partners、BSG、Institutional Venture Partners、KPCB（Kleiner Perkins）、GPI Capital Gemini和 TCV在内的投资者那里获得了至少 7100万美元的股权投资。\n估值：冲刺50亿美元\n早在2012年，LegalZoom.com Inc.就曾申请上市，但后来上市推迟公司在两年后撤回申请，本次是公司第二次发起上市申请。经过几年的发展，LegalZoom希望本次上市时估值超过 50亿美元。\n根据本周一修订后的文件，LegalZoom的价值将在 47亿至 53亿美元之间，具体取决于发行价格以及承销商是否充分行使超额配股权。\nLegalZoom将于今晚登陆纳斯达克，股票代码为 LZ。\n财务状况\n新冠疫情期间，LegalZoom的营收从 2019年的 4.084亿美元增长 15.2%至 2020年的 4.71亿美元。今年第一季度，该公司的收入从去年同期的 1.058亿美元增至 1.346亿美元。此外，今年一季度数据显示，一季度共完成276,000笔采购交易，平均交易订单规模为 488美元。\nLegalZoom的营运现金流也在增加，资料显示，资产负债表上还有 1.412亿美元现金。\n在新冠疫情期间，小型企业申请激增，去年小企业申请在新企业形成市场中占据了很大份额。公司5月份提交的初步文件显示，10%的新有限责任公司和5%的新公司在使用LegalZoom提供的服务。\n文件还称，LegalZoom去年处理了 25,000件商标申请，占美国所有注册申请的 6%。\n前景展望\n管理层认为可寻址市场规模接近490亿美元。该金额包括 183亿美元的企业组建服务、215亿美元的整个企业生命周期中的额外小企业服务以及 88亿美元的消费者遗产规划服务。\nLegalZoom希望通过进入临近的服务领域来继续增长，向第三方解决方案提供商提供额外的API访问权，并提供价值更高、价格也更高的服务来维持其业绩增长。\n目前，主要的竞争者或其他行业参与者包括：BozFilings（博兹档案）、LegalShield（法律之盾）、MyCorporation（我的公司）等。\nIPO相关\n在 6月 21日提交的文件中，LegalZoom表示，与总部位于门洛帕克的 TCMI Inc.的私募股权部门 TCV Investments关联的实体同意通过私募购买 9000万美元的股票。\n此外，文件显示，投资管理公司 BlackRock Inc.和 Neuberger Berman Group的附属实体均表示有兴趣购买 7500万美元的 IPO股票。\nLegalZoom已授予承销商购买约 290万股额外股份以进行超额配售的选择权。\n根据 6月 21日提交的文件，该公司预计在 IPO后总共将有约 1.941亿股流通股，如果承销商行使所有超额配售权，则约为 1.969亿股。\nLegalZoom估计，IPO和私募将筹集 5.408亿美元，如果承销商在 25.50美元的中点范围内充分行使购买股票的选择权，将筹集 6.099亿美元。\n该公司计划从 2018年起用所得款项偿还 5.23亿美元的债务。\n结论\n可以看到，LegalZoom上市融资的主要目的是为了偿还债务。财务状况表明，公司营收不断增长，毛利润和毛利率不断增加，但在今年第一季度将出现经营亏损，同时运营产生的现金流量也在增加。\n截至 2021年 3月 31日的十二个月的自由现金流为令人印象深刻的 9370万美元。\n随着收入的增加，销售和营销费用占总收入的百分比大幅增长；其销售和营销效率一直稳定在 0.4倍。\n管理层认为，为美国的小企业和个人提供法律服务的市场机会相当大。\n摩根大通是发行的承销商之一，近一年，摩根大通牵头的 IPO自 IPO以来的平均回报率为38.9%，在所有承销商中表现中等。\n一个值得注意的信息是公司以美元的认购保留率。对于一家收入中有很大一部分来自订阅的公司来说，这是一个明显的遗漏，可能意味着结果并不显著，因为管理层没有透露它们。\n至于估值，与SaaS Capital编制的 2021年 5月 31日上市 SaaS公司估值倍数中值相比，市场估值为 14.5倍，如下图所示：\n \n目前，LegalZoom市销率为9.91，共估值的角度看，IPO的定价似乎合理。考虑到，公司营收增速快，每年都在盈利，并且在 IPO价格合理的同时产生了大量的自由现金流，因此 IPO值得考虑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":153797370,"gmtCreate":1625048568290,"gmtModify":1703734831475,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":88,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153797370","repostId":"1100844519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100844519","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624850864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100844519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100844519","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通","content":"<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1st (Thursday), Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day. The specific arrangements are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1. The market opens as usual on July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares, Singapore markets, etc. trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Wednesday, June 30 to Thursday, July 1 and open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will not be available on Thursday, July 1, and will be open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Hong Kong stocks are closed on July 1st due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on July 1st (Thursday), Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day. The specific arrangements are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa05e0ac274f01336380bf4d575542d\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The market will be closed for one day on Thursday, July 1. The market opens as usual on July 2 (Friday).</p><p><b>U.S. shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares, Singapore markets, etc. trade as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Wednesday, June 30 to Thursday, July 1 and open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will not be available on Thursday, July 1, and will be open as usual from Friday, July 2.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6adcf1f575211fc4f9ca7f666658417","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100844519","content_text":"据悉，因7月1日（周四）香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。具体安排如下：港股\n7月1日（周四）休市一日。7月2日（周五）照常开市。\n美股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡市场等照常交易。\n沪股通、深股通：\n6月30日（周三）至7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n7月1日（周四）不提供服务，7月2日（周五）起照常开通。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158012229,"gmtCreate":1625113314261,"gmtModify":1703736425336,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158012229","repostId":"1144302321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144302321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625109902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144302321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 11:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Brokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144302321","media":"第一财经","summary":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14","content":"<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage gold stocks released in July! Which stocks get the most roll call?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. With the unfolding of the interim report market, performance is king, high prosperity growth is the least resistance direction, and the theme opportunity pays attention to the peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran throughout the month. How to find opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 brokers announced their monthly investment portfolios in July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks get the most roll call? According to incomplete statistics, in the list of \"gold stocks\" of various brokerages, the most recommended by institutions is still \"brokerage Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total of...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144302321","content_text":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14家券商公布了7月月度投资组合，涉及非银、电气、轻工、机械、化工、家电等多个领域。\n\n哪些个股收获点名最多？\n据不完全统计，在各家券商的“金股”名单中，获机构推荐次数最多的依旧是“券商茅”东方财富，共获得5家券商的推荐，该股6月月内累计涨3.11%，最新收盘价为32.79元。\n此外，药明康德获得国泰君安、兴业证券、浙商证券3家券商的推荐。该股6月内涨幅明显，达12.62%，最新收盘价为156.59元。\n从涨跌幅来看，获两家及以上券商推荐的个股中，港股爱帝宫涨幅最大，该股6月内大涨65.75%，最新收盘价为1.21港元；跌幅最大的是泸州老窖，6月内跌超14%，报235.94元。\n\n后市怎么走？\n展望后市，券商普遍表示，7月股市将持续震荡，而中报行情将成为市场亮点。\n华金证券指出，7月份扰动增加，震荡恐将加剧，但在海内外流动性预期暂时好转背景下，结构性行情有望延续。\n浙商证券也指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n银河证券认为，7月是中报及中报预告披露期，业绩高增长主导结构性机会。经济金融环境暂维持相对利好权益资产，但是A股市场已反弹至高位，增量资金进场缓慢，后续需谨慎追涨，适当降低预期。\n西南证券也认为，经过前期的快速上涨，同时随着中报陆陆续续公布，中报行情有望迎来业绩兑现期，需要适当转向防御，以巩固前期的上涨成果。\n哪些行业最受青睐？\n配置方向上，券商依旧看好顺周期板块未来行情，计算机、医药、新能源等成长板块也受到券商关注，此外，关注中报业绩高增长主线。\n开源证券研报指出，周期股的重定价时刻正在来临，当投资者认识到供给约束的持续性与通胀并非短期，那么在业绩持续验证下，周期股的长期盈利能力将在全市场内显得极具性价比。同时，环境的变化也正在扭转高杠杆经营公司长期的不利地位。开始重新把前期回调较多，受到市场约束较多的成长型周期股纳入到推荐中。\n兴业证券研报称，成长仍是主旋律但是要立足性价比，中报行情可布局绩优股。成长板块围绕4条主线，找长期性价比合适的机会：\n\n 1、AIoT（计算机、通信、电子）；\n\n\n 2、医药（医疗器械、医疗服务）；\n\n\n 3、新能源链条（新能源材料、锂电设备、汽车、智能驾驶）；\n\n\n 4、高端制造设备（半导体设备、军工）。\n\n同时，兴业证券强调，中报行情不容忽视，如机械、军工、化工、交运等行业的绩优股。\n银河证券也认为，景气度向上、中报业绩高增长是主线：关注需求强劲的上游周期品；医疗美容、化妆品、智能家电等消费升级主题；产业数字化、碳中和等国家战略方向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151995070,"gmtCreate":1625061016890,"gmtModify":1703735113068,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151995070","repostId":"1108833039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108833039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625057247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108833039?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108833039","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve recently released its latest notes, analyzing the financial spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets. The findings help explain why the impact of the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months on the financial conditions of emerging market economies has been rather modest: because the rise in yields appears to be driven largely by improving U.S. growth prospects. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p><p>Higher US interest rates are generally seen as bad news for emerging market economies (EMEs) as they increase their debt burden, trigger capital outflows, and often lead to a tightening financial environment that could trigger a financial crisis. In fact, as shown below, the rise in Federal Funds rate during the Volcker anti-inflation period in the early 1980s (black line) was correlated with a sharp rise in the incidence of financial crises in emerging market countries (green bar). However, in other cases, such as the mid-2000s, emerging market economies withstood the brunt of rising US interest rates with little difficulty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the so-called \"spillover effect\" of US monetary policy on emerging markets different? Our recent research shows that the financial spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets depend on two key factors:</p><p>The first is the reason for the change in interest rates in the United States. Higher interest rates, driven by favorable growth prospects, could have a relatively benign impact on emerging financial markets, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth from increased import demand from U.S. trading partners, as well as benefits from increased investor confidence, should both offset the cost of rate hike. Conversely, if rate hike is mainly due to inflation concerns or a shift in hawkish Fed policy (which we collectively refer to as monetary news), it could cause more disruption to emerging markets.</p><p>The second key factor affecting the spillover effect of US monetary policy is the situation of emerging market countries themselves; The financial conditions of economies with higher macroeconomic vulnerability tend to be more sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates.</p><p>Our findings help explain why the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months has had a rather modest impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. Although the recent inflation data has risen, this is likely to be largely due to rising expectations of a rapid recovery in the US economy, which will benefit the overall development of the global economy. Moreover, despite significant debt growth in emerging market economies in recent years, exacerbated by the outbreak of the pandemic, macroeconomic vulnerability remains lower than in the turbulent years of the 1990s and 1980s: macroeconomic policies are more prudent, currencies are more flexible in responding to crises, and the financial sector is more resilient.</p><p>In the remainder of this report, we will summarize the research behind the above findings and present new evidence on the impact of higher US Treasury Bond yields over the longer term on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. We first look at the changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield over a one-hour window around two different events — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the U.S. Jobs Report, and then we categorize the FOMC meeting and the jobs report according to whether they primarily convey growth news (i.e., information about future growth prospects) or monetary news (i.e., information about future inflation or the Fed's reaction mechanism).</p><p>To do this, we looked at the synchronous movement of the S&P 500. Therefore, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 are moving in line, then the FOMC announcement and non-farm payrolls data will be seen as primarily conveying economic growth news. For example, an FOMC communication that increases investor confidence in U.S. economic growth could cause U.S. Treasury Bond yields and stock prices to rise hand in hand, and a very weak jobs report indicating poor growth and earnings prospects could cause yields and stock prices to fall. The blue dot scatter plot in Figure 2 shows a combination of changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 triggered by all FOMC meetings and jobs reports since 2010, which we classify as primarily conveying the news of growth. These figures account for more than a third of the FOMC meetings and jobs reports, respectively.</p><p>In contrast, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 move in opposite directions after the meeting, we view the FOMC meeting and the jobs report as primarily communicating the message of monetary policy. For example, the FOMC's announcement of rising inflationary pressures may be interpreted as a more hawkish policy stance, which may push up US Treasury Bond yields and lower the S&P 500 index, as rising real discount rates will put pressure on stock valuations. Alternatively, a jobs report could cause yields to fall but shares to rise because investors may see it as weak enough to avoid future monetary tightening by the Fed. The red diamond scatter plot in Figure 2 shows the observations we classify as primarily conveying monetary messages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Armed with this classification, we next estimate how emerging market asset prices-local currency bond yields, stock indices, credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and currencies-react to the movement of U.S. Treasury Bond yields. We conducted panel regression analyses of the changes in these four asset prices versus the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield before and after the FOMC meeting and the jobs report, respectively, using a sample of 22 emerging market economies from January to March 22, 2010. We allow estimated responses to vary based on (1) whether the FOMC or employment report is classified as communicating growth or monetary news according to the methodology described above; (2) The macroeconomic vulnerability of emerging market economies themselves before the outbreak of the incident. To quantify the vulnerability of emerging market economies, we used a composite measure developed by Ahmed et al. (2017) that combines information on six indicators: inflation, current account deficit, international reserves, government debt, external debt, and private sector credit growth.</p><p>Our key results are shown in Figure 3, which shows the impact of a 100 basis point increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield on asset prices in emerging market economies. The blue bar indicates the spillover effect of growth news and the red bar indicates the spillover effect of money news. These charts speak volumes about our two important findings:</p><p>(1) The change of Treasury Bond yield driven by monetary news has a much greater impact on asset prices in emerging market economies than the change of yield driven by growth news;</p><p>(2) Asset prices in vulnerable economies are more sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury Bond yields than less vulnerable economies. Higher yields fueled by monetary policy news have hit more vulnerable economies hard: local currency bond yields have risen more than twice as much as US Treasury Bond yields, CDS spreads have soared, and share prices and currencies have collapsed. Conversely, when rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields reflect growth news, the impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies is generally limited and, statistically speaking, almost zero in most cases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, rising US Treasury Bond yields may lead to a noticeable tightening of financial conditions in emerging market economies, but this impact largely depends on the drivers of rising yields and the domestic conditions of emerging market economies. Our findings help explain why the financial spillovers of rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields to emerging markets have been limited so far this year, as the yield rise appears to be driven primarily by the improved U.S. growth outlook. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Notes: Will U.S. rate hike Affect the Stability of Emerging Market Economies?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人民币交易与研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 20:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve recently released its latest notes, analyzing the financial spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets. The findings help explain why the impact of the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months on the financial conditions of emerging market economies has been rather modest: because the rise in yields appears to be driven largely by improving U.S. growth prospects. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p><p>Higher US interest rates are generally seen as bad news for emerging market economies (EMEs) as they increase their debt burden, trigger capital outflows, and often lead to a tightening financial environment that could trigger a financial crisis. In fact, as shown below, the rise in Federal Funds rate during the Volcker anti-inflation period in the early 1980s (black line) was correlated with a sharp rise in the incidence of financial crises in emerging market countries (green bar). However, in other cases, such as the mid-2000s, emerging market economies withstood the brunt of rising US interest rates with little difficulty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the so-called \"spillover effect\" of US monetary policy on emerging markets different? Our recent research shows that the financial spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets depend on two key factors:</p><p>The first is the reason for the change in interest rates in the United States. Higher interest rates, driven by favorable growth prospects, could have a relatively benign impact on emerging financial markets, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth from increased import demand from U.S. trading partners, as well as benefits from increased investor confidence, should both offset the cost of rate hike. Conversely, if rate hike is mainly due to inflation concerns or a shift in hawkish Fed policy (which we collectively refer to as monetary news), it could cause more disruption to emerging markets.</p><p>The second key factor affecting the spillover effect of US monetary policy is the situation of emerging market countries themselves; The financial conditions of economies with higher macroeconomic vulnerability tend to be more sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates.</p><p>Our findings help explain why the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in recent months has had a rather modest impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. Although the recent inflation data has risen, this is likely to be largely due to rising expectations of a rapid recovery in the US economy, which will benefit the overall development of the global economy. Moreover, despite significant debt growth in emerging market economies in recent years, exacerbated by the outbreak of the pandemic, macroeconomic vulnerability remains lower than in the turbulent years of the 1990s and 1980s: macroeconomic policies are more prudent, currencies are more flexible in responding to crises, and the financial sector is more resilient.</p><p>In the remainder of this report, we will summarize the research behind the above findings and present new evidence on the impact of higher US Treasury Bond yields over the longer term on the financial conditions of emerging market economies. We first look at the changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield over a one-hour window around two different events — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the U.S. Jobs Report, and then we categorize the FOMC meeting and the jobs report according to whether they primarily convey growth news (i.e., information about future growth prospects) or monetary news (i.e., information about future inflation or the Fed's reaction mechanism).</p><p>To do this, we looked at the synchronous movement of the S&P 500. Therefore, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 are moving in line, then the FOMC announcement and non-farm payrolls data will be seen as primarily conveying economic growth news. For example, an FOMC communication that increases investor confidence in U.S. economic growth could cause U.S. Treasury Bond yields and stock prices to rise hand in hand, and a very weak jobs report indicating poor growth and earnings prospects could cause yields and stock prices to fall. The blue dot scatter plot in Figure 2 shows a combination of changes in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 triggered by all FOMC meetings and jobs reports since 2010, which we classify as primarily conveying the news of growth. These figures account for more than a third of the FOMC meetings and jobs reports, respectively.</p><p>In contrast, if the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield and the S&P 500 move in opposite directions after the meeting, we view the FOMC meeting and the jobs report as primarily communicating the message of monetary policy. For example, the FOMC's announcement of rising inflationary pressures may be interpreted as a more hawkish policy stance, which may push up US Treasury Bond yields and lower the S&P 500 index, as rising real discount rates will put pressure on stock valuations. Alternatively, a jobs report could cause yields to fall but shares to rise because investors may see it as weak enough to avoid future monetary tightening by the Fed. The red diamond scatter plot in Figure 2 shows the observations we classify as primarily conveying monetary messages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Armed with this classification, we next estimate how emerging market asset prices-local currency bond yields, stock indices, credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and currencies-react to the movement of U.S. Treasury Bond yields. We conducted panel regression analyses of the changes in these four asset prices versus the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield before and after the FOMC meeting and the jobs report, respectively, using a sample of 22 emerging market economies from January to March 22, 2010. We allow estimated responses to vary based on (1) whether the FOMC or employment report is classified as communicating growth or monetary news according to the methodology described above; (2) The macroeconomic vulnerability of emerging market economies themselves before the outbreak of the incident. To quantify the vulnerability of emerging market economies, we used a composite measure developed by Ahmed et al. (2017) that combines information on six indicators: inflation, current account deficit, international reserves, government debt, external debt, and private sector credit growth.</p><p>Our key results are shown in Figure 3, which shows the impact of a 100 basis point increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield on asset prices in emerging market economies. The blue bar indicates the spillover effect of growth news and the red bar indicates the spillover effect of money news. These charts speak volumes about our two important findings:</p><p>(1) The change of Treasury Bond yield driven by monetary news has a much greater impact on asset prices in emerging market economies than the change of yield driven by growth news;</p><p>(2) Asset prices in vulnerable economies are more sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury Bond yields than less vulnerable economies. Higher yields fueled by monetary policy news have hit more vulnerable economies hard: local currency bond yields have risen more than twice as much as US Treasury Bond yields, CDS spreads have soared, and share prices and currencies have collapsed. Conversely, when rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields reflect growth news, the impact on the financial conditions of emerging market economies is generally limited and, statistically speaking, almost zero in most cases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, rising US Treasury Bond yields may lead to a noticeable tightening of financial conditions in emerging market economies, but this impact largely depends on the drivers of rising yields and the domestic conditions of emerging market economies. Our findings help explain why the financial spillovers of rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields to emerging markets have been limited so far this year, as the yield rise appears to be driven primarily by the improved U.S. growth outlook. That being said, vulnerable emerging markets could come under pressure if future rate hike reflect heightened concerns about inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg\">人民币交易与研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108833039","content_text":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。\n\n美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：\n第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。\n影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。\n我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。\n在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。\n为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。\n相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。\n\n有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。\n我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：\n(1)   货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；\n(2)   相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。\n\n综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153797116,"gmtCreate":1625048587535,"gmtModify":1703734831309,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153797116","repostId":"1134674606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134674606","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1625045333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134674606?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 17:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How big is the impact of the Federal Reserve's enlarged move, and the banking giants are crazy to \"throw money\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134674606","media":"券商中国","summary":"美国银行巨头们即将开启疯狂“撒钱”模式？\n美联储对美国银行股回购、派息的限制令将于6月30日正式取消，摩根士丹利、美国银行、富国银行、高盛、摩根大通等巨头大幅上调了第三季度的分红比例，回购股票的规模也","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The giants are about to start the crazy \"money-throwing\" mode?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's restriction order on the repurchase and dividend payment of U.S. bank shares will be officially lifted on June 30th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>When the giants sharply raised the dividend ratio in the third quarter, the scale of stock repurchases also increased sharply, which directly detonated the banking sector.</p><p>Wall Street institutions predict that in the next four quarters, the six major U.S. banks-JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will likely double the size of shareholder rewards through dividends and buybacks to $142 billion (about 910 billion yuan).</p><p>And perhaps the biggest winner behind this is \"stock god\" Buffett, as of the end of the first quarter, his control<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway holds 1.01 billion shares of Bank of America, corresponding to a total market value of $41.7 billion (about RMB 270 billion), which is the second largest holding stock. As Bank of America significantly increases its dividend ratio, Berkshire will get rich cash. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the share price of Bank of America has soared all the way, hitting a record high of $43.49/share on June 3rd, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% compared with the lowest point in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b092a3441d38d478ad3a071584c22a06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Over 910 billion! American banking giants about to \"throw money\" like crazy?</b></p><p>From June 30th, local time, the Federal Reserve will officially cancel the restriction on bank share repurchase and dividend payment, which means that major banks in the United States can distribute \"red envelopes\" to shareholders at will.</p><p>Morgan Stanley (MS.N) took the lead. After the market bell on June 28th, Morgan Stanley announced that it would raise its Dividend for the third quarter of this year from $0.35 per share to $0.7 per share. Based on the total share capital of 1.861 billion shares, the dividend amount will reach $1.3 billion. At the same time, Morgan Stanley announced a new share repurchase plan. As of June 2022, the bank will repurchase up to US$12 billion (about RMB 77.5 billion) of shares.</p><p>Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, said that the bank has accumulated huge excess capital in the past few years, and now it has one of the best capital buffer scales in the industry.</p><p>Stimulated by this news, after the opening of U.S. stocks on the 29th, Morgan Stanley's share price opened 3.8% higher directly, and then rose 4.5% once. As of the close of the day, the increase was still 3.35%, and the share price approached the historical high again, with the latest total market value reaching 168.6 billion USD (about 1,088 billion RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c262f64367f95e02ef61aa6e067b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Morgan Stanley, other American banks have also announced plans to give back to shareholders:</p><p>Wells Fargo said it would double its Dividend in the third quarter of this year to $0.2 per share, and plan to spend about $18 billion (about RMB 116.2 billion) to buy back shares within the year starting in the third quarter;</p><p>Goldman's quarterly Dividend to raise 60% to $2 per share;</p><p>Bank of America plans to raise its quarterly Dividend by 17% to $0.21 per share;</p><p>JPMorgan Chase said it will raise its quarterly stock dividend by 11% to $1 per share and will continue to buy back shares;</p><p>Citi did not disclose the exact size, but said that it would continue to take capital return actions, pay a dividend of at least $0.51 per share, and continue to buy back shares;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State Street Corp</a>It said it would raise its quarterly dividend to $0.57 per share and continue to buy back shares in the next few quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29407257b0e5ec5c8f060612178d7d46\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind the lifting of the ban by the Federal Reserve and the generous \"throwing money\" by major American banks is that the American banking industry is not short of money. According to the results of this year's stress test previously released by the Federal Reserve, all 23 big banks tested remained well above the risk-related minimum capital requirements. In an extremely negative environment, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 23 big banks is still more than double the minimum level of regulatory requirements.</p><p>Barclays expects that in the next four quarters, the size of the six major U.S. banks-JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs-to give back to shareholders through dividend payments and buybacks will likely double to $142 billion (about 916.6 billion yuan).</p><p><b>The profitability of the U.S. banking industry is recovering rapidly</b></p><p>After the epidemic situation in the United States was gradually controlled, all industries began to resume work and production, and the operating performance of the American banking industry was gradually recovering.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo saw their net profits increase by 399%, 101%, and 626% year-over-year, respectively, and Citigroup turned a profit. The annualized ROE of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reached 20.4%, 11.8%, 15.8% and 10.2% in the first quarter, respectively. The ROE of the three major banks outside Wells Fargo all exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and their profitability was greatly enhanced. Wells Fargo's ROE has basically returned to the pre-pandemic level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258f6318b5e402b1d2d00c7264ce4914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>According to the analysis, the substantial increase in ROE of the four major banks in the United States mainly benefited from the release of a large amount of provisions. At the same time, the rapid increase in non-interest income of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo also brought certain positive contributions.</p><p>In 2020, which was hardest hit by the pandemic, the four major banks in the United States made large-scale provisions to prepare for the worst-case scenario. However, with the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy in the second half of 2020, the pressure on asset quality of the four major banks in the United States was greatly reduced, and the four major banks began to slow down their provisions, which continued into the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>At the same time, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also released a large amount of provisions in the first quarter of 2021, which brought a substantial increase in the net profits of the four major banks. At the end of the period, the non-performing loan provision coverage ratios of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo were 237%, 313%, 425% and 210%, respectively, down 31, 66, 15 and 2 percentage points from the year-end, respectively, and still higher than the pre-pandemic level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4bc0f1ba997c7620d0e417ef4b1b1e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another reason why the net income of the four major U.S. banks has quickly returned to growth is the large increase in non-interest income. According to the financial report, in the first quarter of 2021, fee and commission income of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo increased by 23.8%, 14.6%, 19.5% and 15.8% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of securities trading gains and losses of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo Bank and Bank of America reached 105.5%, 81.0% and 25.7% respectively.</p><p>The recovery speed of the performance of the American banking industry obviously exceeds market expectations, which also makes the stock prices of American banking giants collectively soar. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo have gained 23%, 38.4%, 17.8%, and 52.5%, respectively, so far in 2021.</p><p><b>Buffett becomes the biggest winner?</b></p><p><b>Compared with the performance of the four major banks in the United States, the operating performance and share price increase of Bank of America are the most eye-catching, and the biggest winner behind this may be Buffett, the \"stock god\".</b></p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, as one of the industries most closely related to the real economy, bank stocks were sharply sold off by the market. During February-March 2020, the share price of Bank of America was once halved, with the largest decline of over 49%. Bank of America has always been Buffett's second largest holding stock, and its profit-taking is very serious. The comment that \"the stock god is old\" once flooded social media.</p><p>However, when everyone was fearful, Buffett began to bargain-hunting aggressively. Beginning on July 20, 2020, Berkshire Hathaway, which it is in charge of, has been sweeping Bank of America shares almost every day. According to Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Berkshire bought 33.9 million shares of Bank of America from July 20 to 22, 16.4 million shares from July 23 to 27, and another 21.2 million shares from July 28 to 30.</p><p>Subsequently, between July 31 and August 4, Berkshire bought another 13.6 million shares of Bank of America at $24.68-$24.97 per share.</p><p>As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Berkshire still held 1.01 billion shares, which is the second largest holdings, accounting for 14.45% of the holdings. With Bank of America significantly increasing its dividend ratio, Berkshire will receive rich cash again.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the share price of U.S. stock banks has soared all the way, hitting a record high of $43.49/share on June 3rd, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% compared with the lowest point in 2020, which made Buffett \"become a god\" again.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that in the first quarter, Buffett aggressively reduced his holdings of 51.749 million shares of Wells Fargo, with a reduction ratio of nearly 98%, almost clearing his positions and missing the increase in the second quarter. At the shareholders' meeting in May this year, Buffett expressed the reason for the reduction. Bank stocks were originally his favorite, but at present, his position in the financial industry or banking industry can't exceed 10%.</p><p><b>In fact, review Buffett's investment history in bank stocks and letter to shareholders can summarize three insights:</b></p><p>1. Buy excellent bank stocks. Buffett once said in a letter to shareholders: \"Because 20 times leverage in the banking industry will greatly amplify the advantages and disadvantages of business management, we will not buy poorly managed bank stocks at cheap prices; Instead, we only care about buying well-managed bank stocks at reasonable prices.\"</p><p>2. Buy high-quality bank stocks when the valuation is low. Crisis often brings opportunities to buy high-quality bank stocks at low valuation. For example, in 1990, when the U.S. real estate bubble burst and few banking stocks were interested, Buffett bought Wells Fargo heavily at a very low valuation.</p><p>3. Hold it for a long time, earn ROE's money, and be a friend of time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How big is the impact of the Federal Reserve's enlarged move, and the banking giants are crazy to \"throw money\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow big is the impact of the Federal Reserve's enlarged move, and the banking giants are crazy to \"throw money\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 17:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The giants are about to start the crazy \"money-throwing\" mode?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's restriction order on the repurchase and dividend payment of U.S. bank shares will be officially lifted on June 30th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Bank of America,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>When the giants sharply raised the dividend ratio in the third quarter, the scale of stock repurchases also increased sharply, which directly detonated the banking sector.</p><p>Wall Street institutions predict that in the next four quarters, the six major U.S. banks-JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will likely double the size of shareholder rewards through dividends and buybacks to $142 billion (about 910 billion yuan).</p><p>And perhaps the biggest winner behind this is \"stock god\" Buffett, as of the end of the first quarter, his control<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway holds 1.01 billion shares of Bank of America, corresponding to a total market value of $41.7 billion (about RMB 270 billion), which is the second largest holding stock. As Bank of America significantly increases its dividend ratio, Berkshire will get rich cash. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the share price of Bank of America has soared all the way, hitting a record high of $43.49/share on June 3rd, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% compared with the lowest point in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b092a3441d38d478ad3a071584c22a06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Over 910 billion! American banking giants about to \"throw money\" like crazy?</b></p><p>From June 30th, local time, the Federal Reserve will officially cancel the restriction on bank share repurchase and dividend payment, which means that major banks in the United States can distribute \"red envelopes\" to shareholders at will.</p><p>Morgan Stanley (MS.N) took the lead. After the market bell on June 28th, Morgan Stanley announced that it would raise its Dividend for the third quarter of this year from $0.35 per share to $0.7 per share. Based on the total share capital of 1.861 billion shares, the dividend amount will reach $1.3 billion. At the same time, Morgan Stanley announced a new share repurchase plan. As of June 2022, the bank will repurchase up to US$12 billion (about RMB 77.5 billion) of shares.</p><p>Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, said that the bank has accumulated huge excess capital in the past few years, and now it has one of the best capital buffer scales in the industry.</p><p>Stimulated by this news, after the opening of U.S. stocks on the 29th, Morgan Stanley's share price opened 3.8% higher directly, and then rose 4.5% once. As of the close of the day, the increase was still 3.35%, and the share price approached the historical high again, with the latest total market value reaching 168.6 billion USD (about 1,088 billion RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c262f64367f95e02ef61aa6e067b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Morgan Stanley, other American banks have also announced plans to give back to shareholders:</p><p>Wells Fargo said it would double its Dividend in the third quarter of this year to $0.2 per share, and plan to spend about $18 billion (about RMB 116.2 billion) to buy back shares within the year starting in the third quarter;</p><p>Goldman's quarterly Dividend to raise 60% to $2 per share;</p><p>Bank of America plans to raise its quarterly Dividend by 17% to $0.21 per share;</p><p>JPMorgan Chase said it will raise its quarterly stock dividend by 11% to $1 per share and will continue to buy back shares;</p><p>Citi did not disclose the exact size, but said that it would continue to take capital return actions, pay a dividend of at least $0.51 per share, and continue to buy back shares;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State Street Corp</a>It said it would raise its quarterly dividend to $0.57 per share and continue to buy back shares in the next few quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29407257b0e5ec5c8f060612178d7d46\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind the lifting of the ban by the Federal Reserve and the generous \"throwing money\" by major American banks is that the American banking industry is not short of money. According to the results of this year's stress test previously released by the Federal Reserve, all 23 big banks tested remained well above the risk-related minimum capital requirements. In an extremely negative environment, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 23 big banks is still more than double the minimum level of regulatory requirements.</p><p>Barclays expects that in the next four quarters, the size of the six major U.S. banks-JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs-to give back to shareholders through dividend payments and buybacks will likely double to $142 billion (about 916.6 billion yuan).</p><p><b>The profitability of the U.S. banking industry is recovering rapidly</b></p><p>After the epidemic situation in the United States was gradually controlled, all industries began to resume work and production, and the operating performance of the American banking industry was gradually recovering.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo saw their net profits increase by 399%, 101%, and 626% year-over-year, respectively, and Citigroup turned a profit. The annualized ROE of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reached 20.4%, 11.8%, 15.8% and 10.2% in the first quarter, respectively. The ROE of the three major banks outside Wells Fargo all exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and their profitability was greatly enhanced. Wells Fargo's ROE has basically returned to the pre-pandemic level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258f6318b5e402b1d2d00c7264ce4914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>According to the analysis, the substantial increase in ROE of the four major banks in the United States mainly benefited from the release of a large amount of provisions. At the same time, the rapid increase in non-interest income of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo also brought certain positive contributions.</p><p>In 2020, which was hardest hit by the pandemic, the four major banks in the United States made large-scale provisions to prepare for the worst-case scenario. However, with the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy in the second half of 2020, the pressure on asset quality of the four major banks in the United States was greatly reduced, and the four major banks began to slow down their provisions, which continued into the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>At the same time, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also released a large amount of provisions in the first quarter of 2021, which brought a substantial increase in the net profits of the four major banks. At the end of the period, the non-performing loan provision coverage ratios of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo were 237%, 313%, 425% and 210%, respectively, down 31, 66, 15 and 2 percentage points from the year-end, respectively, and still higher than the pre-pandemic level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4bc0f1ba997c7620d0e417ef4b1b1e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another reason why the net income of the four major U.S. banks has quickly returned to growth is the large increase in non-interest income. According to the financial report, in the first quarter of 2021, fee and commission income of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo increased by 23.8%, 14.6%, 19.5% and 15.8% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of securities trading gains and losses of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo Bank and Bank of America reached 105.5%, 81.0% and 25.7% respectively.</p><p>The recovery speed of the performance of the American banking industry obviously exceeds market expectations, which also makes the stock prices of American banking giants collectively soar. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo have gained 23%, 38.4%, 17.8%, and 52.5%, respectively, so far in 2021.</p><p><b>Buffett becomes the biggest winner?</b></p><p><b>Compared with the performance of the four major banks in the United States, the operating performance and share price increase of Bank of America are the most eye-catching, and the biggest winner behind this may be Buffett, the \"stock god\".</b></p><p>Under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, as one of the industries most closely related to the real economy, bank stocks were sharply sold off by the market. During February-March 2020, the share price of Bank of America was once halved, with the largest decline of over 49%. Bank of America has always been Buffett's second largest holding stock, and its profit-taking is very serious. The comment that \"the stock god is old\" once flooded social media.</p><p>However, when everyone was fearful, Buffett began to bargain-hunting aggressively. Beginning on July 20, 2020, Berkshire Hathaway, which it is in charge of, has been sweeping Bank of America shares almost every day. According to Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Berkshire bought 33.9 million shares of Bank of America from July 20 to 22, 16.4 million shares from July 23 to 27, and another 21.2 million shares from July 28 to 30.</p><p>Subsequently, between July 31 and August 4, Berkshire bought another 13.6 million shares of Bank of America at $24.68-$24.97 per share.</p><p>As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Berkshire still held 1.01 billion shares, which is the second largest holdings, accounting for 14.45% of the holdings. With Bank of America significantly increasing its dividend ratio, Berkshire will receive rich cash again.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the share price of U.S. stock banks has soared all the way, hitting a record high of $43.49/share on June 3rd, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% compared with the lowest point in 2020, which made Buffett \"become a god\" again.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that in the first quarter, Buffett aggressively reduced his holdings of 51.749 million shares of Wells Fargo, with a reduction ratio of nearly 98%, almost clearing his positions and missing the increase in the second quarter. At the shareholders' meeting in May this year, Buffett expressed the reason for the reduction. Bank stocks were originally his favorite, but at present, his position in the financial industry or banking industry can't exceed 10%.</p><p><b>In fact, review Buffett's investment history in bank stocks and letter to shareholders can summarize three insights:</b></p><p>1. Buy excellent bank stocks. Buffett once said in a letter to shareholders: \"Because 20 times leverage in the banking industry will greatly amplify the advantages and disadvantages of business management, we will not buy poorly managed bank stocks at cheap prices; Instead, we only care about buying well-managed bank stocks at reasonable prices.\"</p><p>2. Buy high-quality bank stocks when the valuation is low. Crisis often brings opportunities to buy high-quality bank stocks at low valuation. For example, in 1990, when the U.S. real estate bubble burst and few banking stocks were interested, Buffett bought Wells Fargo heavily at a very low valuation.</p><p>3. Hold it for a long time, earn ROE's money, and be a friend of time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e395affed92c76dc0fea1f50781060","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134674606","content_text":"美国银行巨头们即将开启疯狂“撒钱”模式？\n美联储对美国银行股回购、派息的限制令将于6月30日正式取消，摩根士丹利、美国银行、富国银行、高盛、摩根大通等巨头大幅上调了第三季度的分红比例，回购股票的规模也大幅上调，直接引爆了银行板块。\n华尔街机构预测，未来四个季度，六大美国银行—摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛通过派息和回购回馈股东的规模将可能翻倍至1420亿美元（约合人民币9100亿元）。\n而这背后最大的赢家或许又是“股神”巴菲特，截至一季度末，其掌控的伯克希尔哈撒韦持有10.1亿股美国银行，对应总市值达417亿美元（约合人民币2700亿元），系第二大重仓股，随着美国银行大幅提高分红比例，伯克希尔将获得丰厚的现金。另外，今年以来，美国银行股价一路飙涨，6月3日创出历史新高43.49美元/股，相比2020年最低点累计涨幅接近150%。\n\n超9100亿！美国银行巨头即将疯狂“撒钱”？\n当地时间6月30日起，美联储将正式取消对银行股票回购和派息的限制令，意味着，美国各大银行可以随心所欲地给股东派发“红包”。\n率先行动的是摩根士丹利（MS.N），6月28日盘后，摩根士丹利公布，将今年第三季度的股息从每股0.35美元上调至每股0.7美元，以总股本18.61亿股计算，此次分红金额将达到13亿美元。同时，摩根士丹利公布了新的股票回购计划，截至到2022年6月，该行将最多回购120亿美元（约合人民币775亿元）股票。\n摩根士丹利CEO Gorman称，该行过去数年累积了庞大的过剩资本，现在拥有的资本缓冲规模在业内名列前茅。\n受此消息刺激，29日美股开盘后，摩根士丹利股价直接高开3.8%，随后一度大涨4.5%，截至当日收盘，涨幅仍达3.35%，股价再向历史高点逼近，最新总市值达到1686亿美元（约合人民币10880亿元）。\n\n除了摩根士丹利以外，其他美国银行也纷纷公布了回馈股东的计划：\n富国银行称，将今年三季度的股息翻倍，升至每股0.2美元，同时计划在从第三季度开始的一年内，斥资约180亿美元（约合人民币1162亿元）回购股票；\n高盛的季度股息将提高60%至每股2美元；\n美国银行计划将季度股息提高17%，增至每股0.21美元；\n摩根大通称，将把季度股票分红提高11%至每股1美元，并将继续回购股票；\n花旗未透露具体规模，而是称将继续采取资本回馈的行动，至少每股派息0.51美元，并继续回购股票；\n道富银行称将股票季度分红提高至每股0.57美元，今后几个季度继续回购股票。\n\n美联储解禁、美国大行们慷慨“撒钱”的背后是，美国银行业不差钱。据美联储此前公布的今年压力测试结果显示，所有接受测试的23家大银行都保持在远高于风险相关的最低资本要求水平之上，在极端负面环境下，23家大银行的核心一级资本充足率仍比监管要求最低水平高一倍多。\n巴克莱预计，未来四个季度，六大美国银行——摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛通过派息和回购回馈股东的规模将可能翻倍至1420亿美元（约合人民币9166亿元）。\n美国银行业的赚钱能力，正迅速恢复\n美国疫情逐渐得到控制后，各行业都开始复工复产，美国银行业的经营业绩也正在逐步复苏。\n2021年一季度，摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行的净利润分别同比增长399%、101%、626%，花旗集团扭亏为盈。摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行的一季度年化ROE分别达到20.4%、11.8%、15.8%和10.2%，富国银行外的三大行ROE都超过了疫情前的水平，盈利能力大幅增强，富国银行ROE也基本回到了疫情前的水平。\n\n国信证券分析称，美国四大行ROE大幅提升主要受益于释放了大量拨备，同时，摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行非息收入快增也带来了一定的正贡献。\n在受疫情冲击最严重2020年，美国四大行均大规模计提了拨备，为最坏的情况做好准备。但随着2020年下半年美国经济逐步复苏，美国四大行资产质量压力大幅减轻，四大行开始放缓拨备计提力度，并且延续到了2021年一季度。\n同时，美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行2021年一季度也释放了大量的拨备，带来四大行净利润大幅高增。期末摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行不良贷款拨备覆盖率分别是237%、313%、425%和210%，较年末分别下降31个、66个、15个和2个百分点，仍高于疫情前水平。\n\n美国四大行的净收入迅速恢复增长的另一个原因是，非息收入的大幅增长。据财报显示，2021年一季度，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行手续费及佣金收入同比分别增长23.8%、14.6%、19.5%、15.8%。另外，摩根大通、富国银行、美国银行的证券交易损益的同比增速分别达105.5%、81.0%、25.7%。\n美国银行业的业绩恢复速度显然是超出市场预期的，这也使得美国银行巨头们的股价集体大涨。2021年至今，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行的股价涨幅分别达到23%、38.4%、17.8%、52.5%。\n巴菲特成最大的赢家？\n对比美国四大银行的表现，美国银行的经营业绩、股价涨幅都是最亮眼的一家，而这背后最大的赢家或许是“股神”巴菲特。\n2020年疫情冲击下，作为与实体经济关联最密切的行业之一，银行股被市场大幅抛售，2020年2-3月期间，美国银行股价一度惨遭腰斩，最大跌幅超49%。而美国银行一直都是巴菲特的第二大重仓股，利润回吐非常严重，“股神老了”的评论一度充斥了社交媒体。\n然而，当所有人恐惧的时候，巴菲特却开始大举抄底。从2020年7月20日开始，其掌管的伯克希尔哈撒韦几乎每天都在扫货美国银行的股票，据美国证券交易委员会的文件显示，伯克希尔在7月20日至22日买入3390万股美国银行股份，7月23日至27日买入1640万股，7 月28日至30日又买入2120万股。\n随后，在7月31日至8月4日期间，伯克希尔再次买入了1360万股美国银行股票，每股作价24.68-24.97美元。\n截至2021年一季度末，伯克希尔仍持有10.1亿股，系第二大重仓股，持仓占比达14.45%，随着美国银行大幅提高分红比例，伯克希尔又将获得丰厚的现金。\n今年以来，美股银行股价一路飙涨，6月3日创出历史新高43.49美元/股，相比2020年最低点的累计涨幅接近150%，令巴菲特再度“封神”。\n但值得一提的是，在一季度，巴菲特大举减持了富国银行5174.9万股，减持比例接近98%，几近清仓，错过了二季度的涨幅。在今年5月的股东大会上，巴菲特表达了减持的原因，银行股原来是他的最爱，但目前对金融业或银行业的持仓不能超过10%。\n其实，复盘巴菲特对银行股的投资历程和致股东信，可以总结出3点心得：\n1、买入优秀的银行股。巴菲特曾在致股东的信中说道：“由于银行业20倍杠杆会大幅放大经营管理的优劣，我们不会以便宜的价格买入管理水平低下的银行股；相反，我们只在意以合理的价格买入管理良好的银行股票。”\n2、估值低时买入优质银行股，危机往往带来低估值买入优质银行股的机会。如1990年美国房地产泡沫破灭，银行股鲜有人问津之时，巴菲特以很低的估值重仓买入富国银行。\n3、长期持有，挣ROE的钱，做时间的朋友。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153794445,"gmtCreate":1625048544287,"gmtModify":1703734830644,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153794445","repostId":"1140810871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153791403,"gmtCreate":1625048182902,"gmtModify":1703734822044,"author":{"id":"4087185200142770","authorId":"4087185200142770","name":"DylanNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7773c7e1bf69b7e09f8e15067afb0a5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087185200142770","idStr":"4087185200142770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153791403","repostId":"1185458938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}