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2021-07-01

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2021-07-01

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all","listText":"Hi all","text":"Hi all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158353685","repostId":"1152226778","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152226778","pubTimestamp":1625130665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152226778?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla's Current Price Sustainable With The Upcoming Rate Hikes?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152226778","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The latest FOMC meeting confirmed that the imminent rate hikes might be coming sooner than expected.The quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipates two interest rate increases by the end of 2023, inching towards a target rate of 2.5% in the longer term.We believe the California-based EV maker’s current stock price is already reflective of its upside potential, with the potential impact from upcoming rate hikes already priced in.Based on Tesla’s current debt maturity profile, the compa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The latest FOMC meeting confirmed that the imminent rate hikes might be coming sooner than expected.</li>\n <li>The quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipates two interest rate increases by the end of 2023, inching towards a target rate of 2.5% in the longer term.</li>\n <li>With growth stocks benefiting from the past year of low rates, investors are now left wondering how the upcoming rate hikes will impact Tesla's price performance in the near term.</li>\n <li>We believe the California-based EV maker’s current stock price is already reflective of its upside potential, with the potential impact from upcoming rate hikes already priced in.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7774639ba18b73c8fc7e00f439fee7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed last week that the anticipated timing and pace of interest rate hikes from the current near-zero levels will be pulled forward in response to increasing inflation risks. The quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipatestwo interest rate increases&nbsp;by the end of 2023 as opposed to the initially expected timeline of 2024; and the rate hikes will inch towards a target rate of approximately 2.5% in the longer term, akin to the&nbsp;last rate-hike cycle&nbsp;observed between 2015 and 2018.</p>\n<p>With growth stocks across the disruptive technology industry, including the electric vehicles (“EV”) sector, benefiting from the past year of low rates, investors have begun to question how the upcoming interest rate increases will impact prospects moving forward. The market has already pulled back from its peak in February following a&nbsp;growth stock sell-off&nbsp;triggered by the jump in government bond yields – notable names within the EV sector, including industry leader Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), have been down by more than 20% since. While investors continue to wonder how the upcoming rate hikes will impact Tesla, we believe the California-based EV maker’s current stock price is already reflective of its upside potential and the impact from upcoming rate hikes. The following analysis will showcase how we have arrived at our thesis, and also quantify the potential impact that the upcoming interest rate increases will have on Tesla’s valuation.</p>\n<p><b>The Impact on Tesla’s Effective Interest Rate and WACC</b></p>\n<p>In 2020, Tesla reported annual interest expenses of $748 million, representing approximately 5% of their portfolio of outstanding debt (excluding finance leases). This represents a spread of approximately 350 bps on the current 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 1.5%, which is consistent with the spread to benchmark Treasury of 320 bps on Tesla’s latest issuance of the fixed-rate&nbsp;2025 Senior Notes.</p>\n<p>Based on Tesla’s current debt maturity profile, the company will likely be refinancing a large portion of their debt coming due between 2022 and 2025 in order to support their ongoing capex needs on the construction of new manufacturing plants, as well as R&amp;D spending on technological advancements related to battery cells and autonomous driving. The potential refinancing timeline also coincides with the projected timeline of federal fund rate hikes based on the FOMC’s latest meeting on June 16th.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa95de982d7206e7e375327930ed6548\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>In order to forecast the new cost on Tesla’s future debt refinancing, we have used the historical rate hike trend observed between 2015 and 2018 as a proxy for the timing and extent of upcoming rate increases, and the related historical 10-year Treasury yields as a proxy for projected benchmark Treasury. On this basis, the projected 10-year Treasury yield could exceed 3% by 2025 following the upcoming rate increases.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908c2e971f129f9c0b082ac40922ce54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"180\"><span>Source: Author, with data from treasury.gov</span></p>\n<p>By adding Tesla’s historical spread of 350 bps to the forecasted benchmark Treasury yield of up to 3% as analyzed above, the effective interest rate that Tesla is expected to pay on their debt profile could rise from the current 5% up to more than 6.5% by 2024 to 2030. Taking this into consideration, we are forecasting interest expense of approximately $534 million by the end of 2021, with growth towards $660 million on an annual basis by the end of the decade, assuming $9.5 billion to $10 billion of outstanding debt based on Tesla’s current capital structure. Based on these projections, the upcoming rate increase’s impact on Tesla’s bottom line will be approximately $126 million of incremental interest expenses on an annual basis from 2026 onwards.</p>\n<p>The upcoming rate hikes will also increase the weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) used to discount the Tesla’s projected free cash flows, which will result in material changes to the company’s valuation. Considering the forecasted increase of Tesla’s effective interest rate on debt to 6.5% on a forward-looking basis and a&nbsp;risk-free rate of 2.5%&nbsp;based on projected 10-year Treasury yield post rate-hikes, Tesla’s company-specific risk premium (“CSRP”) used to compute the WACC would be approximately 4%. The weighted average cost of debt used to compute the WACC would also increase to approximately 7%. This would accordingly result in a WACC of 16% based on Tesla’s current debt-to-equity capital structure:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4978fdd429f8a0eb118e1e007629e0af\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"572\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (Tesla_-_Valuation.pdf).</span></p>\n<p><b>The Impact on Tesla’s Valuation</b></p>\n<p>In order to evaluate the above-derived WACC’s impact on Tesla’s valuation, we have performed a 10-year discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis based on the company’s projected financials. The following will first briefly discuss the growth assumptions used in our projected financials for Tesla over the 10-year discrete period. Then, we will proceed to explain the inputs used in our DCF analysis and compute our valuation for Tesla.</p>\n<p><b>Financial Projections</b></p>\n<p>In our base case forecast, we have applied conservative growth assumptions based on Tesla’s current business environment and growth initiatives, as well as market outlooks obtained from external research.</p>\n<p>With government intervention through implementation of strict climate change policies and favourable financial incentives, combined with technological advances made to battery cells and charging infrastructure to extend the travel range of EVs, consumer perception of the new mode of transportation has significantly improved in recent years. Global EV sales are expected to&nbsp;outpace gasoline engines by 2033, which is at least five years earlier than the initial timeline based on narratives from just a few months ago. The industry is projected to grow at a&nbsp;compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 21.1%&nbsp;into the end of the decade, with China representing the largest market.</p>\n<p><b>Projected Revenues and Cost of Sales</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c4d9074e98eb2ab8f1ac0c1fd27fd5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Tesla_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p>\n<p>Based on the above growth trends observed across the EV sector, we are projecting revenues generated from the sale and leasing of Tesla vehicles to grow at a CAGR of approximately 20% into FY 2030; this is consistent with the company’s growing presence in the Chinese market, as well as the continuous ramp up in vehicle production and sales observed over the past year and in recent months. We are forecasting automotive revenues to increase by 43% year-over-year to approximately $38.9 billion by the end of 2021, and reach $149 billion by 2030 based on the 20% CAGR. And combined with the anticipated growth of ancillary revenues generated from Tesla’s energy and other services business segments, we are forecasting total revenues of $44.6 billion by the end of the year, and $155 billion by the end of the decade, representing a projected CAGR of 18% into 2030.</p>\n<p>Cost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve slightly over time due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation / storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. We are forecasting total cost of revenues to increase at a CAGR of 17% into 2030, which is in line with our revenue growth projections. This would accordingly result in projected cost of revenues of $34.9 billion by the end of the year and $116.5 billion by 2030, representing gross profit margin improvements from 21% in 2020 to approximately 25% by 2030 which is in line with guidance observed across industry peers such as Lucid Motors (NYSE: CCIV).</p>\n<p><b>Projected Operating Expenses and Other Expenses</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0331422e2460dc16d5c0242f4c340e6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>In terms of operating expenses, R&amp;D spending in the foreseeable future are expected to remain consistent with prior years’ at 6% of total revenues to support Tesla’s ongoing advancements in battery cell and self-driving technology development. Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses are projected to maintain at 10% of total revenues moving forward, which is in line with Tesla’s historical cost structure as well as industry trends.</p>\n<p>With regards to financing costs, annual interest expenses are expected to fall between $534 million to $660 million from 2021 to 2030. As mentioned in earlier sections, the projections are derived based on the upcoming interest rate hikes, as well as Tesla’s current and projected capital structure.</p>\n<p><b>Projected Earnings</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10005a4400d3aa94640f0aef231c1d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Based on the above considerations, our base case forecast is predicting net income of $1.8 billion by the end of the fiscal year, with expected growth at a CAGR of 20% towards $11.5 billion by 2030.</p>\n<p><i>i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35473010e1cc5df0c616097988dfaa09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Building on our financial forecasts above, our price target for Tesla is $659.81 based on an estimated equity value of approximately $635.6 billion. Based on our valuation's proximity to Tesla's last traded share price of $688.72 on June 28th, we believe the stock is reasonably priced at the moment.</p>\n<p>Our valuation is derived from a 10-year DCF analysis in conjunction with the above forecasted financial information. The base case valuation assumes a 127.4x EV/EBITDA exit multiple, which is consistent with the&nbsp;level at which the stock is currently traded at&nbsp;on a forward-looking basis. We have applied a WACC of 16%, as derived in the beginning of our analysis based on Tesla’s current risk profile, capital structure, and impacts from upcoming rate increases, to arrive at our projected price target.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66d22e46a3425930bc55248c986506c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.</span></p>\n<p><b>Quantifying the Impact of Rate Hikes on Tesla’s Valuation</b></p>\n<p>In order to quantify the potential impact of upcoming interest rate increases on Tesla’s valuation, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using a WACC of 14% derived based on the company’s current effective interest rate of 5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6400c48431579fcfd2259ce38add7e\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"574\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.</span></p>\n<p>Holding the forecasted cash flow streams and exit multiple used in our DCF analysis above constant, a WACC of 14% would yield an equity value of approximately $732.6 billion, or $760.50 per share. This drives a difference in value of $97.0 billion, or $100.69 per share, compared to our valuation using a WACC of 16%. The difference accordingly represents the potential quantified impact that the upcoming rate hikes will have on Tesla’s intrinsic value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b9d1a9076dd44b53f3963a3d2ed78a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd4f3b2983533614315d42e0bf12c40d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Based on the foregoing analysis, we believe Tesla’s current share price is reasonably reflective of the company’s upside potential, with the upcoming interest rate increase impacts to their intrinsic value already priced in. As such, we are assigning a Neutral Rating on the stock at this time.</p>\n<p>However, as discussed in our analysis of Tesla's financial projections, the company's ongoing developments to their proprietary battery cell and self-driving technology make them a leading contestant in the global EV arms race. And Tesla's future commercialized deployment of said technologies will be critical catalysts for price appreciations that could compensate beyond the impact from upcoming rate hikes in the long-run. The fast-approaching release of second quarter results and delivery updates will also be a tell-tale of where Tesla currently stands, and a near-term catalyst to look out for.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla's Current Price Sustainable With The Upcoming Rate Hikes?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla's Current Price Sustainable With The Upcoming Rate Hikes?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437304-is-teslas-current-price-sustainable-with-the-upcoming-rate-hikes><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe latest FOMC meeting confirmed that the imminent rate hikes might be coming sooner than expected.\nThe quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipates two interest rate increases by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437304-is-teslas-current-price-sustainable-with-the-upcoming-rate-hikes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437304-is-teslas-current-price-sustainable-with-the-upcoming-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152226778","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe latest FOMC meeting confirmed that the imminent rate hikes might be coming sooner than expected.\nThe quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipates two interest rate increases by the end of 2023, inching towards a target rate of 2.5% in the longer term.\nWith growth stocks benefiting from the past year of low rates, investors are now left wondering how the upcoming rate hikes will impact Tesla's price performance in the near term.\nWe believe the California-based EV maker’s current stock price is already reflective of its upside potential, with the potential impact from upcoming rate hikes already priced in.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed last week that the anticipated timing and pace of interest rate hikes from the current near-zero levels will be pulled forward in response to increasing inflation risks. The quarterly projections showed that the FOMC anticipatestwo interest rate increases by the end of 2023 as opposed to the initially expected timeline of 2024; and the rate hikes will inch towards a target rate of approximately 2.5% in the longer term, akin to the last rate-hike cycle observed between 2015 and 2018.\nWith growth stocks across the disruptive technology industry, including the electric vehicles (“EV”) sector, benefiting from the past year of low rates, investors have begun to question how the upcoming interest rate increases will impact prospects moving forward. The market has already pulled back from its peak in February following a growth stock sell-off triggered by the jump in government bond yields – notable names within the EV sector, including industry leader Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), have been down by more than 20% since. While investors continue to wonder how the upcoming rate hikes will impact Tesla, we believe the California-based EV maker’s current stock price is already reflective of its upside potential and the impact from upcoming rate hikes. The following analysis will showcase how we have arrived at our thesis, and also quantify the potential impact that the upcoming interest rate increases will have on Tesla’s valuation.\nThe Impact on Tesla’s Effective Interest Rate and WACC\nIn 2020, Tesla reported annual interest expenses of $748 million, representing approximately 5% of their portfolio of outstanding debt (excluding finance leases). This represents a spread of approximately 350 bps on the current 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 1.5%, which is consistent with the spread to benchmark Treasury of 320 bps on Tesla’s latest issuance of the fixed-rate 2025 Senior Notes.\nBased on Tesla’s current debt maturity profile, the company will likely be refinancing a large portion of their debt coming due between 2022 and 2025 in order to support their ongoing capex needs on the construction of new manufacturing plants, as well as R&D spending on technological advancements related to battery cells and autonomous driving. The potential refinancing timeline also coincides with the projected timeline of federal fund rate hikes based on the FOMC’s latest meeting on June 16th.\nSource: Bloomberg\nIn order to forecast the new cost on Tesla’s future debt refinancing, we have used the historical rate hike trend observed between 2015 and 2018 as a proxy for the timing and extent of upcoming rate increases, and the related historical 10-year Treasury yields as a proxy for projected benchmark Treasury. On this basis, the projected 10-year Treasury yield could exceed 3% by 2025 following the upcoming rate increases.\nSource: Author, with data from treasury.gov\nBy adding Tesla’s historical spread of 350 bps to the forecasted benchmark Treasury yield of up to 3% as analyzed above, the effective interest rate that Tesla is expected to pay on their debt profile could rise from the current 5% up to more than 6.5% by 2024 to 2030. Taking this into consideration, we are forecasting interest expense of approximately $534 million by the end of 2021, with growth towards $660 million on an annual basis by the end of the decade, assuming $9.5 billion to $10 billion of outstanding debt based on Tesla’s current capital structure. Based on these projections, the upcoming rate increase’s impact on Tesla’s bottom line will be approximately $126 million of incremental interest expenses on an annual basis from 2026 onwards.\nThe upcoming rate hikes will also increase the weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) used to discount the Tesla’s projected free cash flows, which will result in material changes to the company’s valuation. Considering the forecasted increase of Tesla’s effective interest rate on debt to 6.5% on a forward-looking basis and a risk-free rate of 2.5% based on projected 10-year Treasury yield post rate-hikes, Tesla’s company-specific risk premium (“CSRP”) used to compute the WACC would be approximately 4%. The weighted average cost of debt used to compute the WACC would also increase to approximately 7%. This would accordingly result in a WACC of 16% based on Tesla’s current debt-to-equity capital structure:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (Tesla_-_Valuation.pdf).\nThe Impact on Tesla’s Valuation\nIn order to evaluate the above-derived WACC’s impact on Tesla’s valuation, we have performed a 10-year discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis based on the company’s projected financials. The following will first briefly discuss the growth assumptions used in our projected financials for Tesla over the 10-year discrete period. Then, we will proceed to explain the inputs used in our DCF analysis and compute our valuation for Tesla.\nFinancial Projections\nIn our base case forecast, we have applied conservative growth assumptions based on Tesla’s current business environment and growth initiatives, as well as market outlooks obtained from external research.\nWith government intervention through implementation of strict climate change policies and favourable financial incentives, combined with technological advances made to battery cells and charging infrastructure to extend the travel range of EVs, consumer perception of the new mode of transportation has significantly improved in recent years. Global EV sales are expected to outpace gasoline engines by 2033, which is at least five years earlier than the initial timeline based on narratives from just a few months ago. The industry is projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 21.1% into the end of the decade, with China representing the largest market.\nProjected Revenues and Cost of Sales\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts (Tesla_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nBased on the above growth trends observed across the EV sector, we are projecting revenues generated from the sale and leasing of Tesla vehicles to grow at a CAGR of approximately 20% into FY 2030; this is consistent with the company’s growing presence in the Chinese market, as well as the continuous ramp up in vehicle production and sales observed over the past year and in recent months. We are forecasting automotive revenues to increase by 43% year-over-year to approximately $38.9 billion by the end of 2021, and reach $149 billion by 2030 based on the 20% CAGR. And combined with the anticipated growth of ancillary revenues generated from Tesla’s energy and other services business segments, we are forecasting total revenues of $44.6 billion by the end of the year, and $155 billion by the end of the decade, representing a projected CAGR of 18% into 2030.\nCost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve slightly over time due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation / storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. We are forecasting total cost of revenues to increase at a CAGR of 17% into 2030, which is in line with our revenue growth projections. This would accordingly result in projected cost of revenues of $34.9 billion by the end of the year and $116.5 billion by 2030, representing gross profit margin improvements from 21% in 2020 to approximately 25% by 2030 which is in line with guidance observed across industry peers such as Lucid Motors (NYSE: CCIV).\nProjected Operating Expenses and Other Expenses\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nIn terms of operating expenses, R&D spending in the foreseeable future are expected to remain consistent with prior years’ at 6% of total revenues to support Tesla’s ongoing advancements in battery cell and self-driving technology development. Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses are projected to maintain at 10% of total revenues moving forward, which is in line with Tesla’s historical cost structure as well as industry trends.\nWith regards to financing costs, annual interest expenses are expected to fall between $534 million to $660 million from 2021 to 2030. As mentioned in earlier sections, the projections are derived based on the upcoming interest rate hikes, as well as Tesla’s current and projected capital structure.\nProjected Earnings\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nBased on the above considerations, our base case forecast is predicting net income of $1.8 billion by the end of the fiscal year, with expected growth at a CAGR of 20% towards $11.5 billion by 2030.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecasts:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Analysis\nBuilding on our financial forecasts above, our price target for Tesla is $659.81 based on an estimated equity value of approximately $635.6 billion. Based on our valuation's proximity to Tesla's last traded share price of $688.72 on June 28th, we believe the stock is reasonably priced at the moment.\nOur valuation is derived from a 10-year DCF analysis in conjunction with the above forecasted financial information. The base case valuation assumes a 127.4x EV/EBITDA exit multiple, which is consistent with the level at which the stock is currently traded at on a forward-looking basis. We have applied a WACC of 16%, as derived in the beginning of our analysis based on Tesla’s current risk profile, capital structure, and impacts from upcoming rate increases, to arrive at our projected price target.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.\nQuantifying the Impact of Rate Hikes on Tesla’s Valuation\nIn order to quantify the potential impact of upcoming interest rate increases on Tesla’s valuation, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using a WACC of 14% derived based on the company’s current effective interest rate of 5%.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.\nHolding the forecasted cash flow streams and exit multiple used in our DCF analysis above constant, a WACC of 14% would yield an equity value of approximately $732.6 billion, or $760.50 per share. This drives a difference in value of $97.0 billion, or $100.69 per share, compared to our valuation using a WACC of 16%. The difference accordingly represents the potential quantified impact that the upcoming rate hikes will have on Tesla’s intrinsic value.\n\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, we believe Tesla’s current share price is reasonably reflective of the company’s upside potential, with the upcoming interest rate increase impacts to their intrinsic value already priced in. As such, we are assigning a Neutral Rating on the stock at this time.\nHowever, as discussed in our analysis of Tesla's financial projections, the company's ongoing developments to their proprietary battery cell and self-driving technology make them a leading contestant in the global EV arms race. And Tesla's future commercialized deployment of said technologies will be critical catalysts for price appreciations that could compensate beyond the impact from upcoming rate hikes in the long-run. The fast-approaching release of second quarter results and delivery updates will also be a tell-tale of where Tesla currently stands, and a near-term catalyst to look out for.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158072442,"gmtCreate":1625117329686,"gmtModify":1703736512023,"author":{"id":"4087534674565780","authorId":"4087534674565780","name":"johnflim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcd0f68280d08dd4a9fc47a5e6e7449b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087534674565780","authorIdStr":"4087534674565780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>good good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>good good","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$good good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0291d2977c8c8c80b56cea186d84f932","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158072442","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158076448,"gmtCreate":1625117283184,"gmtModify":1703736510389,"author":{"id":"4087534674565780","authorId":"4087534674565780","name":"johnflim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcd0f68280d08dd4a9fc47a5e6e7449b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087534674565780","authorIdStr":"4087534674565780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi good","listText":"Hi good","text":"Hi good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158076448","repostId":"2148849665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148849665","pubTimestamp":1625110800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148849665?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoftBank to raise $7.35 billion in offshore bond sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148849665","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"TOKYO (Reuters) - SoftBank Group Corp said on Thursday it plans to raise $7.35 billion this month by","content":"<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - SoftBank Group Corp said on Thursday it plans to raise $7.35 billion this month by selling U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds, the Japanese conglomerate's first such foreign bond sale in three years.</p>\n<p>SoftBank plans to sell dollar bonds worth $3.85 billion with maturities ranging from 3.5 years to 10 years, and euro bonds worth 2.95 billion euros ($3.5 billion) with a similar duration.</p>\n<p>The group, which hiked its capital commitment to the second Vision Fund to $40 billion, said proceeds from the latest bond issuance would be used to repay debt and general corporate purposes.</p>\n<p>The bonds were given a BB-plus junk rating by S&amp;P Global Ratings.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoftBank to raise $7.35 billion in offshore bond sale</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoftBank to raise $7.35 billion in offshore bond sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18629893><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - SoftBank Group Corp said on Thursday it plans to raise $7.35 billion this month by selling U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds, the Japanese conglomerate's first such foreign ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18629893\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03160":"华夏日股对冲","SFTBY":"软银集团"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18629893","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148849665","content_text":"TOKYO (Reuters) - SoftBank Group Corp said on Thursday it plans to raise $7.35 billion this month by selling U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds, the Japanese conglomerate's first such foreign bond sale in three years.\nSoftBank plans to sell dollar bonds worth $3.85 billion with maturities ranging from 3.5 years to 10 years, and euro bonds worth 2.95 billion euros ($3.5 billion) with a similar duration.\nThe group, which hiked its capital commitment to the second Vision Fund to $40 billion, said proceeds from the latest bond issuance would be used to repay debt and general corporate purposes.\nThe bonds were given a BB-plus junk rating by S&P Global Ratings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158078516,"gmtCreate":1625117180735,"gmtModify":1703736508918,"author":{"id":"4087534674565780","authorId":"4087534674565780","name":"johnflim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcd0f68280d08dd4a9fc47a5e6e7449b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087534674565780","authorIdStr":"4087534674565780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"God good","listText":"God good","text":"God 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11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175794606","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.As Nvidia finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.The stock is up 95% over the last","content":"<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.</p>\n<p>I have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.</p>\n<p>It has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.</p>\n<p>The stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.</p>\n<p><b>ARM Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia had announced the&nbsp;acquisition of ARM&nbsp;for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.</p>\n<p>This deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.</p>\n<p>At a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang&nbsp;made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>Another step ahead with AI</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled&nbsp;Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.</p>\n<p>Equinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.</p>\n<p>I strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line on NVDA stock</b></p>\n<p>Once the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.</p>\n<p>The company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.</p>\n<p>Raymond James&nbsp;analyst Chris Caso&nbsp;raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.</p>\n<p>There is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.</p>\n<p>NVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Catalysts That Will Drive Nvidia Stock Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/2-catalysts-that-will-drive-nvidia-stock-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175794606","content_text":"ARM merger and AI will take NVDA stock to new highs in the future.\nAs Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) finally completes the much-awaited stock split, the leader in the semiconductor industry has a lot working in its favor. If you missed out on the opportunity to buy NVDA stock and enjoy the 4-for-1 stock split, you can still invest in the company. When it comes to fundamentals, Nvidia is one of the best. It is the gold standard in GPU processing and has become a leader in the AI industry.\nI have always been bullish on NVDA stock and had recommended a purchase before the stock split. The stock has enjoyed an excellent ride over the years.\nIt has gone from $104 in April 2017 to $500 in October 2020 and is exchanging hands for $755 today. If you had made the purchase based on my June 9 recommendation at $700, you would be sitting on a chance to get four times shares.\nThe stock is up 95% over the last year and 40% over the past six months. Looking at the strong position Nvidia holds in the industry, there is no stopping NVDA stock. Investors should be ready for massive gains in the coming years. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2 catalysts driving NVDA stock higher.\nARM Acquisition\nNvidia had announced the acquisition of ARM for $40 billion in 2020. The deal has not been received positively in the semiconductor industry but if it goes through, Nvidia has an opportunity to become one of the most important companies with time. It needs approval from the U.K., U.S., European and Chinese regulators.\nThis deal will allow Nvidia to advance in the field of computing and it will take the sales and revenue higher. The deal will be complete by March 2022 and once it does, there is no looking back for Nvidia. The company will be able to offer higher efficiency on its products with ARM architecture.\nAt a recent conference of Six-Five Summit and CogX,Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a case for the merger which would combine the capacities of ARM with Nvidia’s AI capabilities and will lead to the creation of new ideas. The deal will open new business opportunities for Nvidia and will help the company create new products that will only increase its competitive advantage in the industry.\nAnother step ahead with AI\nNvidia is not new to AI and it is only moving forward with it. The company unveiled Nvidia AI LaunchPad, which is a program for enterprises and it will give access to NVIDIA-powered software and infrastructure to streamline the AI lifecycle.\nEquinix, a leader in digital infrastructure will be the first in the program and it will provide Nvidia-powered solutions on its platform. Nvidia is making it easy for enterprises to get access to AI and deploy it for the growth of their business.\nI strongly believe that AI will take Nvidia higher in the coming months and with each development and update, the company is only making its presence stronger in the industry.\nThe bottom line on NVDA stock\nOnce the ARM acquisition is complete, Nvidia could become one of the biggest tech companies today. However, the acquisition may take time but there is no doubting the potential of Nvidia.\nThe company has strong fundamentals and enjoys a top position in the industry. There could be a dip in NVDA stock due to the stock split but it proves nothing about the fundamentals.\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso raised the price target of NVDA stock to $900 with a Strong Buy rating. The analyst believes that the company is best positioned for growth in the long term.\nThere is not one but many factors that will take NVDA stock higher and every dip is an opportunity to load up on the stock.\nNVDA stock is poised for long-term growth and is one stock to hold for the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}