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2023-09-10

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2023-06-02

$Western Alliance(WAL)$

2023-05-18

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ why dropped after earning release?

2023-05-18

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$

2022-11-03

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$be patient

2022-09-01

$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$

2022-08-31

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

2022-08-30

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

2022-08-26

Wow article

SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future

2022-08-13

Like

The Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast

2022-08-13

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$fly fly

2022-08-13

$Snowflake(SNOW)$when will this baby fly?

2022-05-10

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$vomit blood

2022-05-06

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$continue to hold

2022-02-18

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$when can I see it in green?

2022-02-18

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$this stock is sick.

2022-02-12

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry] [Cry]

2021-09-21

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$not panicked

2021-09-07

$Hutchison China Meditech(HCM)$hop in this bandwagon

2021-08-27

$Twitter(TWTR)$i buy twitter because I am using it and love it

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WAL\">$Western Alliance(WAL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Western Alliance(WAL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182994085998720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970654684,"gmtCreate":1684417489648,"gmtModify":1684417495454,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ &nbsp;</a>why dropped after earning release?","listText":"<a 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Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970656122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984035917,"gmtCreate":1667486282140,"gmtModify":1676537926078,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a>be patient","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930280208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930052630,"gmtCreate":1661879282822,"gmtModify":1676536595206,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930052630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997635966,"gmtCreate":1661793977258,"gmtModify":1676536579486,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997635966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995452572,"gmtCreate":1661505456598,"gmtModify":1676536531854,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow article&nbsp;","listText":"Wow article&nbsp;","text":"Wow article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995452572","repostId":"1153153537","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153153537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661502349,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153153537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153153537","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>After a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.</li><li>In this article, I briefly review how we got to &#34;The world of 4,818.&#34; I then submit why I believe we aren&#39;t returning to that world anytime soon.</li><li>Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848620917b37246e8700ad06034642a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><p>This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.</p><p>Here&#39;s just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.</p><blockquote>As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? <i>Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering &#34;a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.</i>&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&amp;P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar&#39;s observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&amp;P.</p><p>Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then it<i>continued</i>to rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&amp;P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.</p><p>Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way &#34;out of the woods,&#34; so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.</p><p>Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.</p><p><b>Revisiting The World Of 4,818</b></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.</p><p>To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; financial environment can continue. Here&#39;s one example, from Morgan Stanley.</p><blockquote>These developments indicate markets may be counting on a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.</blockquote><p>Very briefly, let&#39;s touch on the &#34;Goldilocks&#34; environment that got us to 4,818. We&#39;ll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.</p><p>Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks&#39; terms, this can be considered &#34;just right&#34;.</p><p>In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed&#39;s 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.</p><p>In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.</p><p>In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.</p><p>In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be &#34;transitory&#34; in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.</p><p><b>However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed</b>. There were many other factors that could be described in &#34;Goldilocks&#34; terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were <b>geopolitical</b> in nature.</p><p>Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.</p><blockquote>U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,<i>until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world</i>. (Italics mine, for emphasis)</blockquote><p>In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the &#34;low inflation world.&#34;</p><p>With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world&#39;s major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.</p><p><b>The World of 4,818 Confronts Change</b></p><p>As investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).</p><p><i>Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818</i>?</p><p>Let&#39;s briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.</p><p><b>Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary Inflation</b></p><p>Briefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.</p><p>Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excess<i>credit</i>at low interest rates must also be considered.</p><p>In short, an individual earns<i>income</i>from productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access to<i>credit</i>. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.</p><p>With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf6b0d13c5a6650c2958181a32d51c0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)</span></p><p>Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In addition to income, then, this growing amount of<i>credit</i>has contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.</p><p>Here&#39;s the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.</p><p>Here&#39;s an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.</p><blockquote><i>Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.</i>. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.<i>In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.</i>(Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.</p><p>How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora&#39;s box of inflation will be easily closed.</p><p>In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will &#34;chicken out&#34; and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.</p><p>As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, &#34;Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?&#34; at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group&#39;s 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.</p><p>I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:</p><blockquote><i>The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it&#39;s not realistic</i>. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Challenge #2: Geopolitical Shocks</b></p><p>As featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).</p><p>I won&#39;t spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.</p><p>In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a &#34;hot war&#34; as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin&#39;s world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the &#34;decadent&#34; west.</p><p>These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.</p><p>Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the &#34;Century of Humiliation&#34;. Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.</p><p>In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.</p><p>These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Putting It All Together</b></p><p>I don&#39;t claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won&#39;t go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.</p><p>However, here are a few things to consider.</p><p>We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.</p><p>Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one&#39;s portfolio.</p><p>Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.</p><p>Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153153537","content_text":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got to \"The world of 4,818.\" I then submit why I believe we aren't returning to that world anytime soon.Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.DNY59This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.Here's just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering \"a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.\" (Italics mine)Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar's observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&P.Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then itcontinuedto rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way \"out of the woods,\" so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.Revisiting The World Of 4,818The S&P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a \"Goldilocks\" financial environment can continue. Here's one example, from Morgan Stanley.These developments indicate markets may be counting on a \"Goldilocks\" scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.Very briefly, let's touch on the \"Goldilocks\" environment that got us to 4,818. We'll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks' terms, this can be considered \"just right\".In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed's 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be \"transitory\" in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed. There were many other factors that could be described in \"Goldilocks\" terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were geopolitical in nature.Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world. (Italics mine, for emphasis)In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the \"low inflation world.\"With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world's major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.The World of 4,818 Confronts ChangeAs investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818?Let's briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary InflationBriefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excesscreditat low interest rates must also be considered.In short, an individual earnsincomefrom productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access tocredit. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.In addition to income, then, this growing amount ofcredithas contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.Here's the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.Here's an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.(Italics mine)Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora's box of inflation will be easily closed.In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will \"chicken out\" and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, \"Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?\" at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group's 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it's not realistic. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.\" (Italics mine)In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.Challenge #2: Geopolitical ShocksAs featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).I won't spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a \"hot war\" as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin's world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the \"decadent\" west.These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the \"Century of Humiliation\". Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.Putting It All TogetherI don't claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won't go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.However, here are a few things to consider.We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one's portfolio.Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990564779,"gmtCreate":1660370955294,"gmtModify":1676533461278,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990564779","repostId":"2259720034","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259720034","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1660351621,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259720034?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259720034","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.Inflation slowed","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.</p><p>Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.</p><p>That news sent the S&amp;P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&amp;P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.</p><p>It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve&#39;s target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.</p><p>Even if inflation has peaked, it&#39;s likely to remain stubbornly high. &#34;One good print isn&#39;t going to change the Fed&#39;s modus operandi,&#34; Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron&#39;s. &#34;The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.&#34;</p><p>There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday&#39;s rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.</p><p>&#34;The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,&#34; says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that&#39;s also seen in other economic data.</p><p>July&#39;s jobs report blew past economists&#39; expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.</p><p>There&#39;s the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.</p><p>It&#39;s tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. &#34;If China&#39;s economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we&#39;ve got something,&#34; he says. &#34;We&#39;re at one or two cylinders.&#34; Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.</p><p>Given the market&#39;s tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.</p><p>With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.</p><p>Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won&#39;t dwindle dramatically in a downturn.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-13 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.</p><p>Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.</p><p>That news sent the S&amp;P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&amp;P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.</p><p>It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve&#39;s target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.</p><p>Even if inflation has peaked, it&#39;s likely to remain stubbornly high. &#34;One good print isn&#39;t going to change the Fed&#39;s modus operandi,&#34; Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron&#39;s. &#34;The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.&#34;</p><p>There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday&#39;s rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.</p><p>&#34;The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,&#34; says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that&#39;s also seen in other economic data.</p><p>July&#39;s jobs report blew past economists&#39; expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.</p><p>There&#39;s the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.</p><p>It&#39;s tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. &#34;If China&#39;s economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we&#39;ve got something,&#34; he says. &#34;We&#39;re at one or two cylinders.&#34; Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.</p><p>Given the market&#39;s tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.</p><p>With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.</p><p>Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won&#39;t dwindle dramatically in a downturn.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","SKIS":"Peak Resorts, Inc.","BK4104":"贸易公司与经销商","FAST":"快扣"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259720034","content_text":"Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.That news sent the S&P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.Even if inflation has peaked, it's likely to remain stubbornly high. \"One good print isn't going to change the Fed's modus operandi,\" Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron's. \"The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.\"There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday's rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.\"The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,\" says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that's also seen in other economic data.July's jobs report blew past economists' expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.There's the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.It's tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. \"If China's economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we've got something,\" he says. \"We're at one or two cylinders.\" Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.Given the market's tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won't dwindle dramatically in a downturn.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990564864,"gmtCreate":1660370892560,"gmtModify":1676533461262,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fly fly","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$fly fly","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c73763b888b0e6e59eb46eb28429b3eb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990564864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990565322,"gmtCreate":1660370724468,"gmtModify":1676533461108,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>when will this baby fly?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>when will this baby fly?","text":"$Snowflake(SNOW)$when will this baby fly?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990565322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065634015,"gmtCreate":1652185238537,"gmtModify":1676535047406,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>vomit blood","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>vomit blood","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$vomit blood","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4acd111dd1a2da0f50f0d1f81878fd4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065634015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099476137815150","authorId":"4099476137815150","name":"Zenlyn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099476137815150","authorIdStr":"4099476137815150"},"content":"I brought at 120 lol fml","text":"I brought at 120 lol fml","html":"I brought at 120 lol fml"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066958806,"gmtCreate":1651843030905,"gmtModify":1676534981995,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a>continue to hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a>continue to hold","text":"$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$continue to hold","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25fd6e16df0c981a362eaef3e70bc988","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066958806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094439606,"gmtCreate":1645199795564,"gmtModify":1676534008657,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>when can I see it in green?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>when can I see it in green?","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$when can I see it in green?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5a46adeecf75fc5e90ccea4dfa4298fc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094439606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094542713,"gmtCreate":1645194610507,"gmtModify":1676534007693,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>this stock is sick.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>this stock is sick.&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$this stock is sick.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094542713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092256177,"gmtCreate":1644638929963,"gmtModify":1676533949993,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry] [Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092256177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577153253038717","authorId":"3577153253038717","name":"andy1967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c9eab1ea6730e01c8143915e463cc57","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577153253038717","authorIdStr":"3577153253038717"},"content":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market.","text":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market.","html":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860440501,"gmtCreate":1632203356403,"gmtModify":1676530724657,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>not panicked","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>not panicked","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$not panicked","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53026b446cec0f58f2949a3582ebbc96","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860440501","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817725198,"gmtCreate":1630990720214,"gmtModify":1676530436639,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">$Hutchison China Meditech(HCM)$</a>hop in this bandwagon&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">$Hutchison China Meditech(HCM)$</a>hop in this bandwagon&nbsp;","text":"$Hutchison China Meditech(HCM)$hop in this bandwagon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef004c6d527f7f50da1b5c35f1afd0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817725198","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819813597,"gmtCreate":1630053569219,"gmtModify":1676530211608,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>i buy twitter because I am using it and love it","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>i buy twitter because I am using it and love it","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$i buy twitter because I am using it and love it","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfffadf604dbe489fd54ceffab1d992c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819813597","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9065634015,"gmtCreate":1652185238537,"gmtModify":1676535047406,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>vomit blood","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>vomit blood","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$vomit blood","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4acd111dd1a2da0f50f0d1f81878fd4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065634015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099476137815150","authorId":"4099476137815150","name":"Zenlyn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099476137815150","authorIdStr":"4099476137815150"},"content":"I brought at 120 lol fml","text":"I brought at 120 lol fml","html":"I brought at 120 lol fml"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092256177,"gmtCreate":1644638929963,"gmtModify":1676533949993,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$why AMD and NViDIA dropped more than those high value growth stock with negative earning......[Cry] [Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092256177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577153253038717","authorId":"3577153253038717","name":"andy1967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c9eab1ea6730e01c8143915e463cc57","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577153253038717","authorIdStr":"3577153253038717"},"content":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market.","text":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market.","html":"I would say high inflation number would trigger the Fed to raise interest rates more than what the market anticipated. Also market marker takes this opportunity to sell down the market."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094439606,"gmtCreate":1645199795564,"gmtModify":1676534008657,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>when can I see it in green?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>when can I see it in green?","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$when can I see it in green?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/5a46adeecf75fc5e90ccea4dfa4298fc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094439606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838939933,"gmtCreate":1629363368122,"gmtModify":1676530016050,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>we r not alone.... In this bloodpath","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>we r not alone.... In this bloodpath","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$we r not alone.... In this bloodpath","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21fb9715888dbb75bf2ea7ae4ddd539b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838939933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990564779,"gmtCreate":1660370955294,"gmtModify":1676533461278,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990564779","repostId":"2259720034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803522562,"gmtCreate":1627450256356,"gmtModify":1703490211393,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>iron man in making. Safe haven when everywhere else is being battered.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>iron man in making. Safe haven when everywhere else is being battered.&nbsp;","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$iron man in making. Safe haven when everywhere else is being battered.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f9f03209222649001cac130892db61","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803522562","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995452572,"gmtCreate":1661505456598,"gmtModify":1676536531854,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow article&nbsp;","listText":"Wow article&nbsp;","text":"Wow article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995452572","repostId":"1153153537","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153153537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661502349,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153153537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153153537","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>After a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.</li><li>In this article, I briefly review how we got to &#34;The world of 4,818.&#34; I then submit why I believe we aren&#39;t returning to that world anytime soon.</li><li>Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848620917b37246e8700ad06034642a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><p>This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.</p><p>Here&#39;s just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.</p><blockquote>As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? <i>Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering &#34;a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.</i>&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&amp;P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar&#39;s observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&amp;P.</p><p>Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then it<i>continued</i>to rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&amp;P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.</p><p>Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way &#34;out of the woods,&#34; so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.</p><p>Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.</p><p><b>Revisiting The World Of 4,818</b></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.</p><p>To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; financial environment can continue. Here&#39;s one example, from Morgan Stanley.</p><blockquote>These developments indicate markets may be counting on a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.</blockquote><p>Very briefly, let&#39;s touch on the &#34;Goldilocks&#34; environment that got us to 4,818. We&#39;ll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.</p><p>Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks&#39; terms, this can be considered &#34;just right&#34;.</p><p>In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed&#39;s 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.</p><p>In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.</p><p>In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.</p><p>In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be &#34;transitory&#34; in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.</p><p><b>However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed</b>. There were many other factors that could be described in &#34;Goldilocks&#34; terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were <b>geopolitical</b> in nature.</p><p>Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.</p><blockquote>U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,<i>until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world</i>. (Italics mine, for emphasis)</blockquote><p>In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the &#34;low inflation world.&#34;</p><p>With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world&#39;s major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.</p><p><b>The World of 4,818 Confronts Change</b></p><p>As investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).</p><p><i>Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818</i>?</p><p>Let&#39;s briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.</p><p><b>Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary Inflation</b></p><p>Briefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.</p><p>Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excess<i>credit</i>at low interest rates must also be considered.</p><p>In short, an individual earns<i>income</i>from productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access to<i>credit</i>. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.</p><p>With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf6b0d13c5a6650c2958181a32d51c0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)</span></p><p>Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In addition to income, then, this growing amount of<i>credit</i>has contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.</p><p>Here&#39;s the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.</p><p>Here&#39;s an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.</p><blockquote><i>Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.</i>. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.<i>In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.</i>(Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.</p><p>How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora&#39;s box of inflation will be easily closed.</p><p>In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will &#34;chicken out&#34; and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.</p><p>As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, &#34;Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?&#34; at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group&#39;s 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.</p><p>I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:</p><blockquote><i>The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it&#39;s not realistic</i>. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Challenge #2: Geopolitical Shocks</b></p><p>As featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).</p><p>I won&#39;t spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.</p><p>In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a &#34;hot war&#34; as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin&#39;s world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the &#34;decadent&#34; west.</p><p>These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.</p><p>Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the &#34;Century of Humiliation&#34;. Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.</p><p>In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.</p><p>These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Putting It All Together</b></p><p>I don&#39;t claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won&#39;t go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.</p><p>However, here are a few things to consider.</p><p>We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.</p><p>Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one&#39;s portfolio.</p><p>Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.</p><p>Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153153537","content_text":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got to \"The world of 4,818.\" I then submit why I believe we aren't returning to that world anytime soon.Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.DNY59This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.Here's just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering \"a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.\" (Italics mine)Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar's observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&P.Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then itcontinuedto rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way \"out of the woods,\" so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.Revisiting The World Of 4,818The S&P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a \"Goldilocks\" financial environment can continue. Here's one example, from Morgan Stanley.These developments indicate markets may be counting on a \"Goldilocks\" scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.Very briefly, let's touch on the \"Goldilocks\" environment that got us to 4,818. We'll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks' terms, this can be considered \"just right\".In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed's 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be \"transitory\" in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed. There were many other factors that could be described in \"Goldilocks\" terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were geopolitical in nature.Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world. (Italics mine, for emphasis)In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the \"low inflation world.\"With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world's major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.The World of 4,818 Confronts ChangeAs investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818?Let's briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary InflationBriefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excesscreditat low interest rates must also be considered.In short, an individual earnsincomefrom productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access tocredit. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.In addition to income, then, this growing amount ofcredithas contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.Here's the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.Here's an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.(Italics mine)Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora's box of inflation will be easily closed.In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will \"chicken out\" and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, \"Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?\" at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group's 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it's not realistic. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.\" (Italics mine)In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.Challenge #2: Geopolitical ShocksAs featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).I won't spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a \"hot war\" as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin's world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the \"decadent\" west.These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the \"Century of Humiliation\". Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.Putting It All TogetherI don't claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won't go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.However, here are a few things to consider.We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one's portfolio.Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094542713,"gmtCreate":1645194610507,"gmtModify":1676534007693,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>this stock is sick.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>this stock is sick.&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$this stock is sick.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094542713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805577880,"gmtCreate":1627895138640,"gmtModify":1703497382028,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>darling please fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>darling please fly","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$darling please fly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f898992c1b95f5740bb43e6486d3890","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805577880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800437222,"gmtCreate":1627311611266,"gmtModify":1703487448324,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>BBBY is not a junk meme stock. Wish me luck.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>BBBY is not a junk meme stock. Wish me luck.","text":"$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$BBBY is not a junk meme stock. Wish me luck.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47caeb4560ac95f5cfc051ea121415d1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800437222","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581668434592119","authorId":"3581668434592119","name":"AntheaNikki","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d5a87a5116892fb5e89c4418001b2eb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581668434592119","authorIdStr":"3581668434592119"},"content":"I hope not too. bought really high at $39 ?","text":"I hope not too. bought really high at $39 ?","html":"I hope not too. bought really high at $39 ?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834374514,"gmtCreate":1629776088838,"gmtModify":1676530127845,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>let's&nbsp;ride on this","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>let's&nbsp;ride on this","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$let's ride on this","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7711e4cb3be9c40a3535219985f3f2e5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834374514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174732976,"gmtCreate":1627137756895,"gmtModify":1703484710233,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>my first purchase of steel company. Hoped the commodity supercycle will last longer than I hope","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>my first purchase of steel company. Hoped the commodity supercycle will last longer than I hope","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$my first purchase of steel company. Hoped the commodity supercycle will last longer than I hope","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3039606bda207ed55c0ce8ff2036ae","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174732976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970654684,"gmtCreate":1684417489648,"gmtModify":1684417495454,"author":{"id":"4087560294519680","authorId":"4087560294519680","name":"PangFamily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b1641842619a78d5341dfee9e7b2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087560294519680","authorIdStr":"4087560294519680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ &nbsp;</a>why dropped after earning release?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab 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