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jrtai
2021-06-25
like and comment please
Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation turns positive for the year as growth stocks surge
jrtai
2021-06-24
ok
Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price
jrtai
2021-06-24
wow
Bank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation turns positive for the year as growth stocks surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood’s ARK Innovation turns positive for the year as growth stocks surge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 08:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-turns-positive-for-the-year.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After a tumultuous first half of 2021, Cathie Wood’s flagship fund —ARK Innovation— just went positive for the year as investors begin to give growth names a nod.\nThe actively managed ETF rose 1.5% on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-turns-positive-for-the-year.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-turns-positive-for-the-year.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1160571601","content_text":"After a tumultuous first half of 2021, Cathie Wood’s flagship fund —ARK Innovation— just went positive for the year as investors begin to give growth names a nod.\nThe actively managed ETF rose 1.5% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date gain to just shy of 1%. The innovation fund has rallied 5.4% this week and over 11% this month.\nSince bottoming on May 13 — a day after thehottest inflation reading since 2008— the fund is up about 25%.\n\nARK Innovation started to suffer in late February when a striking rotation from growth to value occurred in the market. However, fears of higher interest rates triggered by inflation appear overblown, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury sits around 1.5% after hitting a high near 1.8% at the end of March.\nWith interest rates continuing to come down and the threat of inflation under control, investors are now shifting back to their favorite growth names, and Wood’s Ark Invest is back on an upswing.\nWood called the comeback earlier this month. She told clients“the rotation back to growth is probably close at hand”on June 8.\nWood’s theory is that consumer spending is going to make a major move to the services sector after dominating in the goods sector during the coronavirus pandemic. Wood presciently said this would spur a decline in commodity prices and cyclical stocks, setting the stage for outperformance in innovation names.\nTo be sure, the fund has a long way to go to breach its record high from February. The ETF sits about 21% from its 52-week high.\nPower in ARK’s top holdings\nWood — known for taking advantage of dips in her highest conviction picks — spent the last few volatile months doubling down on her top holdings. Recently, Wood — a longtime bitcoin bull — has taken advantage of weakness inDraftKings,CoinbaseandGrayscale Bitcoin Trust.\n“We have capitalized on this volatility by selling names that have held up better than others and moving into names ... those that we have a high degree of conviction and those that are more opportunistic,” shesaid during an ARK webinarthis month. Wood told CNBC last month she now expects a 25% annual rate of return in her top holdings over the next five years.\nSince April’s hot inflation report released on May 12, Wood’s top holdings bottomed out and have led the ETF higher.\nCNBC Pro arranged the fund’s holding based on market valuation and screened for how much the equities have gained since then.\nShares of Tesla— the fund’s largest holding — are up roughly 15% since mid-May as of Wednesday’s close.\nAs of Wednesday’s close,Teladoc Health and Shopify are up about 20% and 43%, respectively, since the May bottom.Squarehas gained 21% andZoom Videohas popped 30% since then.TwilioandUnity Softwareare up 37% and 40% since the May bottom, respectively. DocuSign is up a whopping 52% in that time.\nWood made a name for herself after a banner 2020 where ARK Innovation returned nearly 150%.\nARK Innovation has seen roughly $7 billion of investor money enter the ETF in 2021, according to FactSet. In the past year, the $15 billion in fund flows have rushed Wood’s flagship fund.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128571057,"gmtCreate":1624525655079,"gmtModify":1703839329691,"author":{"id":"4087626765791380","authorId":"4087626765791380","name":"jrtai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd8e9ef51c40b0512e93328353026d1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626765791380","authorIdStr":"4087626765791380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128571057","repostId":"1137537223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137537223","pubTimestamp":1624523813,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137537223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137537223","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.</li>\n <li>The moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.</li>\n <li>As a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.</li>\n <li>Investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.</p>\n<p>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.</p>\n<p>Before going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.</p>\n<p>My goal for my stock holdings is to generate<b>D</b>ouble-<b>D</b>igit return during a<b>D</b>ecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb3acede81613b3761fd70078b79286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11117eef882381e86fc7ad1e929b15d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><b>The businesses and the moat</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.</p>\n<p>For pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.</p>\n<p>As seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.</p>\n<p>This where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274b7e5bc8ed32603e922232dbdba5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eba34c481717e6f2cfaa6f316498aa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"></p>\n<p>Source: Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Financial Strength</b></p>\n<p>Thanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>The business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df9ddd5bfc780fb81922d0bf07dfb2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>Source: Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29a25abfa0354c92c5dfb7ab49243ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>The valuation</b></p>\n<p>As can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.</p>\n<p>As such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f2c7c3ec96007a14b507da34b0eb02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"88\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Long-term return and perpetual growth rate</b></p>\n<p>If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p>\n<p>Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p>\n<p>Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p>\n<p>OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).</p>\n<p>The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p>\n<p>1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p>\n<p>2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p>\n<p>3. There are the following two possible routes here:</p>\n<p>3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.</p>\n<p>3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.</p>\n<p>Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcb7c6b4fc7360c3140a7cbcd7aa511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>With a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!</p>\n<p>Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc98d9c0dd33069c7237e253e96f624b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>And for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.</p>\n<p>However, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.</p>\n<p>And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca693c6f94c74a4aebd1de7b8392612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion and final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</p>\n<p>I am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:36 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137537223","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.\nAs a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.\nInvestment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\n\nThesis and Background\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.\nBefore going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.\nMy goal for my stock holdings is to generateDouble-Digit return during aDecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.\n\nSource: Author\n\nSource: Author\nThe businesses and the moat\nPfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.\nFor pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.\nAs seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.\nThis where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.\n\nSource:Pfizer 2020 annual report\n\nSource: Pfizer 2020 annual report\nProfitability and Financial Strength\nThanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.\nThe business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\n\nSource: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha\nThe valuation\nAs can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.\nAs such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha\nLong-term return and perpetual growth rate\nIf you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,\nLonger-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).\nThe next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. There are the following two possible routes here:\n3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.\n3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nWith a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha.\nAnd for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.\nHowever, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.\nAnd as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nConclusion and final thoughts\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\nI am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.\nThanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128529006,"gmtCreate":1624524385905,"gmtModify":1703839282703,"author":{"id":"4087626765791380","authorId":"4087626765791380","name":"jrtai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd8e9ef51c40b0512e93328353026d1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626765791380","authorIdStr":"4087626765791380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128529006","repostId":"1166720474","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166720474","pubTimestamp":1624523507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166720474?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166720474","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>In recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.</li>\n <li>The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.</li>\n <li>I am taking advantage of recent dip in the share price of banks.</li>\n <li>The release of the CCAR stress tests should be a positive catalyst for BAC given substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.</li>\n <li>I have turned \"very bullish\" and have been accumulating the stock in recent days.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Fed is acknowledging inflation risks. It is now time to 'think about thinking about' tapering bond purchases. The \"dot points\" by the FOMC participants suggest that the Fed overnight rate may rise as early as 2022 (see below chart):</p>\n<p>The markets reacted somewhat strangely to the Fed's repositioning on inflation risks. Short-term interest rates rose whereby long treasuries' yield declined strongly, and therefore resulting in a flattening of the yield curve.</p>\n<p>When the curve flattens, the algorithmic selling of banks gets triggered - I do not mind at all, as I get to buy the dips on the likes of Citigroup (C) and Barclays (BCS).</p>\n<p>The conventional wisdom is that the Fed is looking to rein in inflation by raising rates earlier than expected and therefore a 'mini rotation' away from cyclicals to growth has taken place. Chairman Powell furtherreiterated this weekthe Fed's accommodative stance and noted that the FOMC's dot-point projections should be taken with \"a large grain of salt\".</p>\n<p>My base view is that moderate inflation (unlike the one we have seen in the 1970s) is on the cards and that is what is being engineered by the Fed. The global economy desperately needs inflation due to the massive amount of debt issued by governments in recent years. The only way to get out of the predicament we are in is to slowly (but surely) demonetize the debt. At the same time, the world economy cannot really afford high nominal interest rates or otherwise let inflation get completely out of control.</p>\n<p>So in the next few years, I expect moderately higher short-term interest rates, some form of yield curve control, and a steepening yield curve (especially at the long end). And this is quite a positive environment for financials and especially so for Bank of America (BAC).</p>\n<p><b>The most interest rates sensitive bank</b></p>\n<p>BAC is one of the most interest-sensitive banks in North America. This can be clearly seen in its most recent disclosure in theQ1'2021 10-Q:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec53741ffe4bdcf3ba47e66278a8ff79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As you can see from above, BAC is projected to benefit by an incremental $8.3 billion of pre-tax income where a parallel shift in interest rates of 100 basis points takes place. Most of the benefit, however, is in the short end (~$6.3 billion).</p>\n<p>It is important to note that the above projection is static (assuming instantaneous movement in interest rates) and does not take into account management actions. You can see, for example, the reduced sensitivity at the long end compared with 31 December disclosures. It appears that during Q1'2021, BAC has taken advantage of higher long-term yields and extended the duration of its securities portfolio.</p>\n<p><b>What is driving BAC interest rate sensitivity?</b></p>\n<p>BAC is a deposit-gathering monster with greater than $1.8T balances as ofQ1'2021.</p>\n<p>These deposits are typically very sticky and cut across the retail mass market, high-net-worth individuals, small businesses, and large corporates.</p>\n<p>Currently, with 0% overnight interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yielding less than 1.5%, the returns on this amazing deposit franchise are at a cyclical bottom.</p>\n<p>You can think of banks, in that context, as commodity producers. The commodity they are selling is \"interest rates\" and BAC is the lowest cost producer by far with ample capacity. The operating leverage built-in in this business model, when and if interest rates rise, is nothing short of exceptional.</p>\n<p>If you believe the forecast of the FOMC members for longer-term overnight rates of 2.5% (and naturally longer-term rates will be higher), then the incremental pre-tax income for BAC should be well in excess of $20 billion. To recap, BAC's current market cap is ~$320 billion, and the return on tangible equity during Q1'2021 has been in excess of 17 percent (even in the current low-interest rate environment). The upside is clear and significant.</p>\n<p><b>A CCAR winner</b></p>\n<p>The Fed is expected to release the results of the 2021 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) on Thursday 24th June after market close. CCAR is an annual exercise by the Federal Reserve designed to assess whether the largest banks operating in the United States have sufficient capital to continue operations throughout times of economic and financial stress.</p>\n<p>I expect BAC to pass with flying colours as they have done so in the last few CCAR cycles. After all, BAC has a relatively much lower risk profile compared to peer banks. This is evident from the lastCCAR stress testperformed in December 2020:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43588f352e781a567b15e73f99313e89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As can be seen from above, the drawdown in its capital ratios during a forecasted severely adverse scenario is materially lower than the median.</p>\n<p>As such, I expect BAC to be bound by a requirement to hold a minimum common equity tier 1 (\"CET1\") ratio of 9.5%. Given that its current ratio is 11.8%, it is very clear that BAC has ample capacity to return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.</p>\n<p>Assuming a management buffer of 0.5% to 1.0%, I expect BAC to aim for a CET1 ratio of 10% to 10.5%. On the basis of excess capital and expected earnings for 2021, I expect BAC to return 125% to 150% of its 2021 earnings in the current CCAR cycle.</p>\n<p>This should translate to increased dividends as well as massive buybacks.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I see BAC as a top stock to own in a moderate inflationary environment. The operating leverage embedded in its business model in a rising rates setting is nothing short of exceptional. It is also a great hedge to a portfolio comprising of defensive assets such as bonds and growth/large technology stocks.</p>\n<p>I have taken advantage of the recent dip in banks' share price and have been adding selectively in my favourite names. I have now turned \"very bullish\" on BAC. I also expect that the release of the CCAR results today will be quite a positive catalyst for banks and especially for BAC given the substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.\nThe Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.\nI am taking advantage of recent dip ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1166720474","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.\nThe Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.\nI am taking advantage of recent dip in the share price of banks.\nThe release of the CCAR stress tests should be a positive catalyst for BAC given substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.\nI have turned \"very bullish\" and have been accumulating the stock in recent days.\n\nThe Fed is acknowledging inflation risks. It is now time to 'think about thinking about' tapering bond purchases. The \"dot points\" by the FOMC participants suggest that the Fed overnight rate may rise as early as 2022 (see below chart):\nThe markets reacted somewhat strangely to the Fed's repositioning on inflation risks. Short-term interest rates rose whereby long treasuries' yield declined strongly, and therefore resulting in a flattening of the yield curve.\nWhen the curve flattens, the algorithmic selling of banks gets triggered - I do not mind at all, as I get to buy the dips on the likes of Citigroup (C) and Barclays (BCS).\nThe conventional wisdom is that the Fed is looking to rein in inflation by raising rates earlier than expected and therefore a 'mini rotation' away from cyclicals to growth has taken place. Chairman Powell furtherreiterated this weekthe Fed's accommodative stance and noted that the FOMC's dot-point projections should be taken with \"a large grain of salt\".\nMy base view is that moderate inflation (unlike the one we have seen in the 1970s) is on the cards and that is what is being engineered by the Fed. The global economy desperately needs inflation due to the massive amount of debt issued by governments in recent years. The only way to get out of the predicament we are in is to slowly (but surely) demonetize the debt. At the same time, the world economy cannot really afford high nominal interest rates or otherwise let inflation get completely out of control.\nSo in the next few years, I expect moderately higher short-term interest rates, some form of yield curve control, and a steepening yield curve (especially at the long end). And this is quite a positive environment for financials and especially so for Bank of America (BAC).\nThe most interest rates sensitive bank\nBAC is one of the most interest-sensitive banks in North America. This can be clearly seen in its most recent disclosure in theQ1'2021 10-Q:\n\nAs you can see from above, BAC is projected to benefit by an incremental $8.3 billion of pre-tax income where a parallel shift in interest rates of 100 basis points takes place. Most of the benefit, however, is in the short end (~$6.3 billion).\nIt is important to note that the above projection is static (assuming instantaneous movement in interest rates) and does not take into account management actions. You can see, for example, the reduced sensitivity at the long end compared with 31 December disclosures. It appears that during Q1'2021, BAC has taken advantage of higher long-term yields and extended the duration of its securities portfolio.\nWhat is driving BAC interest rate sensitivity?\nBAC is a deposit-gathering monster with greater than $1.8T balances as ofQ1'2021.\nThese deposits are typically very sticky and cut across the retail mass market, high-net-worth individuals, small businesses, and large corporates.\nCurrently, with 0% overnight interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yielding less than 1.5%, the returns on this amazing deposit franchise are at a cyclical bottom.\nYou can think of banks, in that context, as commodity producers. The commodity they are selling is \"interest rates\" and BAC is the lowest cost producer by far with ample capacity. The operating leverage built-in in this business model, when and if interest rates rise, is nothing short of exceptional.\nIf you believe the forecast of the FOMC members for longer-term overnight rates of 2.5% (and naturally longer-term rates will be higher), then the incremental pre-tax income for BAC should be well in excess of $20 billion. To recap, BAC's current market cap is ~$320 billion, and the return on tangible equity during Q1'2021 has been in excess of 17 percent (even in the current low-interest rate environment). The upside is clear and significant.\nA CCAR winner\nThe Fed is expected to release the results of the 2021 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) on Thursday 24th June after market close. CCAR is an annual exercise by the Federal Reserve designed to assess whether the largest banks operating in the United States have sufficient capital to continue operations throughout times of economic and financial stress.\nI expect BAC to pass with flying colours as they have done so in the last few CCAR cycles. After all, BAC has a relatively much lower risk profile compared to peer banks. This is evident from the lastCCAR stress testperformed in December 2020:\n\nAs can be seen from above, the drawdown in its capital ratios during a forecasted severely adverse scenario is materially lower than the median.\nAs such, I expect BAC to be bound by a requirement to hold a minimum common equity tier 1 (\"CET1\") ratio of 9.5%. Given that its current ratio is 11.8%, it is very clear that BAC has ample capacity to return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.\nAssuming a management buffer of 0.5% to 1.0%, I expect BAC to aim for a CET1 ratio of 10% to 10.5%. On the basis of excess capital and expected earnings for 2021, I expect BAC to return 125% to 150% of its 2021 earnings in the current CCAR cycle.\nThis should translate to increased dividends as well as massive buybacks.\nFinal thoughts\nI see BAC as a top stock to own in a moderate inflationary environment. The operating leverage embedded in its business model in a rising rates setting is nothing short of exceptional. It is also a great hedge to a portfolio comprising of defensive assets such as bonds and growth/large technology stocks.\nI have taken advantage of the recent dip in banks' share price and have been adding selectively in my favourite names. I have now turned \"very bullish\" on BAC. I also expect that the release of the CCAR results today will be quite a positive catalyst for banks and especially for BAC given the substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":128571057,"gmtCreate":1624525655079,"gmtModify":1703839329691,"author":{"id":"4087626765791380","authorId":"4087626765791380","name":"jrtai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd8e9ef51c40b0512e93328353026d1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626765791380","authorIdStr":"4087626765791380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128571057","repostId":"1137537223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137537223","pubTimestamp":1624523813,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137537223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137537223","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.</li>\n <li>The moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.</li>\n <li>As a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.</li>\n <li>Investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.</p>\n<p>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.</p>\n<p>Before going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.</p>\n<p>My goal for my stock holdings is to generate<b>D</b>ouble-<b>D</b>igit return during a<b>D</b>ecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb3acede81613b3761fd70078b79286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11117eef882381e86fc7ad1e929b15d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><b>The businesses and the moat</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.</p>\n<p>For pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.</p>\n<p>As seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.</p>\n<p>This where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274b7e5bc8ed32603e922232dbdba5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eba34c481717e6f2cfaa6f316498aa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"></p>\n<p>Source: Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Financial Strength</b></p>\n<p>Thanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>The business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df9ddd5bfc780fb81922d0bf07dfb2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>Source: Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29a25abfa0354c92c5dfb7ab49243ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>The valuation</b></p>\n<p>As can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.</p>\n<p>As such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f2c7c3ec96007a14b507da34b0eb02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"88\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Long-term return and perpetual growth rate</b></p>\n<p>If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p>\n<p>Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p>\n<p>Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p>\n<p>OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).</p>\n<p>The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p>\n<p>1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p>\n<p>2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p>\n<p>3. There are the following two possible routes here:</p>\n<p>3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.</p>\n<p>3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.</p>\n<p>Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcb7c6b4fc7360c3140a7cbcd7aa511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>With a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!</p>\n<p>Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc98d9c0dd33069c7237e253e96f624b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>And for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.</p>\n<p>However, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.</p>\n<p>And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca693c6f94c74a4aebd1de7b8392612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion and final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</p>\n<p>I am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:36 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137537223","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.\nAs a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.\nInvestment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\n\nThesis and Background\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.\nBefore going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.\nMy goal for my stock holdings is to generateDouble-Digit return during aDecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.\n\nSource: Author\n\nSource: Author\nThe businesses and the moat\nPfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.\nFor pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.\nAs seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.\nThis where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.\n\nSource:Pfizer 2020 annual report\n\nSource: Pfizer 2020 annual report\nProfitability and Financial Strength\nThanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.\nThe business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\n\nSource: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha\nThe valuation\nAs can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.\nAs such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha\nLong-term return and perpetual growth rate\nIf you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,\nLonger-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).\nThe next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. There are the following two possible routes here:\n3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.\n3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nWith a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha.\nAnd for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.\nHowever, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.\nAnd as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nConclusion and final thoughts\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\nI am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.\nThanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128529006,"gmtCreate":1624524385905,"gmtModify":1703839282703,"author":{"id":"4087626765791380","authorId":"4087626765791380","name":"jrtai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd8e9ef51c40b0512e93328353026d1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626765791380","authorIdStr":"4087626765791380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128529006","repostId":"1166720474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126731142,"gmtCreate":1624584093586,"gmtModify":1703840928693,"author":{"id":"4087626765791380","authorId":"4087626765791380","name":"jrtai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd8e9ef51c40b0512e93328353026d1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626765791380","authorIdStr":"4087626765791380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment please","listText":"like and comment please","text":"like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126731142","repostId":"1160571601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
