猫猫723 personal page - To The Moon

猫猫723

猫猫723

不保持原状小小投资，获益良多，凡事需适可而止。

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2021-09-06

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Xiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today

2021-09-03

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2021-08-29

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BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 439,428,235 Doses Of Covid-19 Vaccine As Of Aug 28

2021-08-29

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Exposure 1TB Storage iPhone 13 Series Mobile Phones Minimum 14,000 Yuan

2021-08-29

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Tesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph

2021-08-28

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2021-08-27

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2021-08-27

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How does the Fed manipulate global inflation?

2021-08-23

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Tencent Holdings: Repurchase 230,000 shares at a cost of HK$101 million today

2021-08-19

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Federal Reserve Voting Committee next year: End QE in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike is reasonable in the fourth quarter

2021-08-19

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The world's largest sovereign fund made $600 million a day in the first half of the year! Look what you bought?

2021-08-19

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Behind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden

2021-08-19

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TSMC reaches the top again

2021-08-19

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What are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?

2021-08-18

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Opening: Tech, Education Stocks Rebound as HSI Opens 0.21% Higher

2021-08-18

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Retail unexpectedly fell, U.S. economy slumped more than expected in July, Goldman Sachs said it was bad

2021-08-14

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2021-08-12

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Shen Yanan, President of Li Auto: Internal discussion on the possibility of returning to A shares

2021-08-12

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Deja Vu? US Pressures OPEC to Increase Production, Will Oil Prices Like Three Years ago

2021-08-11

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No.1 in the world for three years! Lei Jun is ambitious, but it also expresses bitterness and bitterness

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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20:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159574266","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月6日，小米集团公布，于2021年9月6日，该公司以每股24.9-25港元的价格回购798万股股份，斥资1.99亿港元。","content":"<p>On September 6, Xiaomi Group announced that on September 6, 2021, the company repurchased 7.98 million shares at a price of HK$24.9-25 per share, spending HK$199 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85968b8413ced7e3207b643ba7fd6bd3\" tg-width=\"1637\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cfa3b5822f891ee0e730f97529dc291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-06 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 6, Xiaomi Group announced that on September 6, 2021, the company repurchased 7.98 million shares at a price of HK$24.9-25 per share, spending HK$199 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85968b8413ced7e3207b643ba7fd6bd3\" tg-width=\"1637\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cfa3b5822f891ee0e730f97529dc291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159574266","content_text":"9月6日，小米集团公布，于2021年9月6日，该公司以每股24.9-25港元的价格回购798万股股份，斥资1.99亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812424420,"gmtCreate":1630617432060,"gmtModify":1676530355404,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812424420","repostId":"2164829815","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813599132,"gmtCreate":1630210620726,"gmtModify":1676530244599,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813599132","repostId":"2163346079","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2163346079","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630193231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2163346079?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-29 07:27","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 439,428,235 Doses Of Covid-19 Vaccine As Of Aug 28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163346079","media":"Reuters","summary":"Aug 28 (Reuters) -    * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 439,428,235 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 V","content":"<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 439,428,235 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 437,567,285 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 367,911,870 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 366,838,484 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 203,992,008 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 203,475,192 INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * UU.S. CDC SAYS 173,101,292 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 172,646,952  INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27</p><p>((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 439,428,235 Doses Of Covid-19 Vaccine As Of Aug 28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 439,428,235 Doses Of Covid-19 Vaccine As Of Aug 28\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-29 07:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 439,428,235 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 437,567,285 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 367,911,870 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 366,838,484 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 203,992,008 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 203,475,192 INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27</p><p>   * UU.S. CDC SAYS 173,101,292 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 172,646,952  INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27</p><p>((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163346079","content_text":"Aug 28 (Reuters) -    * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 439,428,235 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 437,567,285 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF AUG 27   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 367,911,870 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 366,838,484 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF AUG 27   * U.S. CDC SAYS 203,992,008 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 203,475,192 INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27   * UU.S. CDC SAYS 173,101,292 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF AUG 28 VERSUS 172,646,952  INDIVIDUALS AS OF AUG 27((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813590379,"gmtCreate":1630210510092,"gmtModify":1676530244575,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813590379","repostId":"2163799020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2163799020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630200210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2163799020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Exposure 1TB Storage iPhone 13 Series Mobile Phones Minimum 14,000 Yuan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163799020","media":"苏圆","summary":"相关消息透露称，iPhone 13系列将会在9月17日正式发售，该系列分别是iPhone 13 mini、iPhone 13、iPhone 13 Pro、iPhone 13 Pro Max。对于它的售价，最近有爆料称iPhone 13系列手机最低5499元起，1TB顶配版估计会高至1.4 万元。","content":"<p><html><body><div><div itemprop=\"articleBody\"><img src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/03/01/ChMkKmEq4sCISMZfAABCiJ3Ju24AATNLgMWqPoAAEKg187.jpg\"/><div><div><div></div></div></div>According to related news, the iPhone 13 series will be officially released on September 17th. The series are iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max.</p><p><span></span><img height=\"337\" src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/03/01/ChMkKmEq4sCISMZfAABCiJ3Ju24AATNLgMWqPoAAEKg187.jpg\" width=\"600\"/></p><p>As for its price, it has recently been revealed that the iPhone 13 series mobile phones start from 5,499 yuan at the lowest, and the 1TB top version is estimated to be as high as 14,000 yuan.</p><p>This article is an original article. If reprinted, please indicate the source: iPhone 13 series mobile phones with 1TB storage are exposed as low as 14,000 yuan https: / /news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</p><p><div zpv-events-inview=\"article-cont-bottom-viewport\"></div><div><span itemprop=\"url\">https://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</span><span itemprop=\"indexUrl\">news.zol.com.cn</span><span itemprop=\"isOriginal\">true</span><span itemprop=\"author\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">Zhongguancun</a>Online</span><span itemprop=\"isBasedOnUrl\">https://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</span><span itemprop=\"genre\">report</span><span itemprop=\"wordCount\">211</span><span itemprop=\"description\">According to related news, the iPhone 13 series will be officially released on September 17th. The series are iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max. Regarding its selling price, it has recently been revealed that the iPhone 13 series mobile phones start at a minimum of 5,499 yuan, and the 1TB top version is estimated to be as high as 14,000 yuan....</span></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"zol_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Exposure 1TB Storage iPhone 13 Series Mobile Phones Minimum 14,000 Yuan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExposure 1TB Storage iPhone 13 Series Mobile Phones Minimum 14,000 Yuan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏圆</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div itemprop=\"articleBody\"><img src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/03/01/ChMkKmEq4sCISMZfAABCiJ3Ju24AATNLgMWqPoAAEKg187.jpg\"/><div><div><div></div></div></div>According to related news, the iPhone 13 series will be officially released on September 17th. The series are iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max.</p><p><span></span><img height=\"337\" src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/03/01/ChMkKmEq4sCISMZfAABCiJ3Ju24AATNLgMWqPoAAEKg187.jpg\" width=\"600\"/></p><p>As for its price, it has recently been revealed that the iPhone 13 series mobile phones start from 5,499 yuan at the lowest, and the 1TB top version is estimated to be as high as 14,000 yuan.</p><p>This article is an original article. If reprinted, please indicate the source: iPhone 13 series mobile phones with 1TB storage are exposed as low as 14,000 yuan https: / /news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</p><p><div zpv-events-inview=\"article-cont-bottom-viewport\"></div><div><span itemprop=\"url\">https://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</span><span itemprop=\"indexUrl\">news.zol.com.cn</span><span itemprop=\"isOriginal\">true</span><span itemprop=\"author\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">Zhongguancun</a>Online</span><span itemprop=\"isBasedOnUrl\">https://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html</span><span itemprop=\"genre\">report</span><span itemprop=\"wordCount\">211</span><span itemprop=\"description\">According to related news, the iPhone 13 series will be officially released on September 17th. The series are iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max. Regarding its selling price, it has recently been revealed that the iPhone 13 series mobile phones start at a minimum of 5,499 yuan, and the 1TB top version is estimated to be as high as 14,000 yuan....</span></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html\">苏圆</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64b08e46b6eb1bee9b4fcb8733eb9bd","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163799020","content_text":"相关消息透露称，iPhone 13系列将会在9月17日正式发售，该系列分别是iPhone 13 mini、iPhone 13、iPhone 13 Pro、iPhone 13 Pro Max。对于它的售价，最近有爆料称iPhone 13系列手机最低5499元起，1TB顶配版估计会高至1.4 万元。本文属于原创文章，如若转载，请注明来源：曝1TB存储的iPhone 13系列手机最低1.4 万元 https://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html\n\nhttps://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html\nnews.zol.com.cn\ntrue\n中关村在线\nhttps://news.zol.com.cn/775/7754952.html\nreport\n211\n相关消息透露称，iPhone 13系列将会在9月17日正式发售，该系列分别是iPhone 13 mini、iPhone 13、iPhone 13 Pro、iPhone 13 Pro Max。对于它的售价，最近有爆料称iPhone 13系列手机最低5499元起，1TB顶配版估计会高至1.4 万元。...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813507661,"gmtCreate":1630210465453,"gmtModify":1676530244567,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813507661","repostId":"2163079626","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2163079626","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630200486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2163079626?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163079626","media":"Reuters","summary":"Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvi","content":"<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's</p><p>  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources. </p><p>   E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.</p><p>   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.</p><p>   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. </p><p>   Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said.</p><p> (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)</p><p>((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-29 09:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's</p><p>  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources. </p><p>   E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.</p><p>   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.</p><p>   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. </p><p>   Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said.</p><p> (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)</p><p>((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163079626","content_text":"Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources.    E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.    Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said. (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819455058,"gmtCreate":1630100810074,"gmtModify":1676530223015,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819455058","repostId":"2162271120","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810795887,"gmtCreate":1630009180349,"gmtModify":1676530197811,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810795887","repostId":"1149933443","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810795134,"gmtCreate":1630009151028,"gmtModify":1676530197811,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810795134","repostId":"1187114664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187114664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630031209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187114664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How does the Fed manipulate global inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187114664","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"按照价格上升的速度，人们通常将通货膨胀划分为以下几个级别：\n爬行通货膨胀(creeping inflation, 每年物价上升1%~3%);\n温和通货膨胀(moderate inflation, 每年","content":"<p>According to the rate at which prices are rising, people typically divide inflation into the following levels:</p><p><b>creeping inflation, where prices rise by 1% ~3% every year;</b></p><p><b>moderate inflation (3% ~6% annual price rise);</b></p><p><b>raging inflation (annual price increase of 6% ~9%);</b></p><p><b>galloping inflation (annual price rise of 10% ~50%);</b></p><p><b>hyper-inflation, where prices rise by more than 50% every year.</b></p><p>By studying the monetary history of the United States for nearly a hundred years between 1867 and 1960, Friedman came to a categorical conclusion about inflation:</p><p><b>\"Inflation, at any time and anywhere, is a monetary phenomenon\".</b></p><p>Furthermore, according to Friedman's research, except for hyperinflation, inflation usually occurs 12-24 months after the issuance of additional money, and the duration is usually longer than 24 months.</p><p>Therefore, how to manipulate inflation, to put it bluntly, is to manipulate the issuance of currency, which is a matter of the central bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c98d63d291d237f8950be12f1a0750f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some people stare at the changes of the central bank's balance sheet to judge the trend of inflation-because the size of the central bank's balance sheet does represent the total scale of money printed by the central bank, and the size of the balance sheet is completely under the control of the central bank.</p><p>There is indeed nothing wrong with this idea. Unfortunately, the reality is very skinny. Apart from the two common denominators that the central bank's balance sheet has been increasing and inflation has been persistent, you can hardly see the relationship between the change in inflation and the change in the size of the central bank's balance sheet.</p><p>For example, since 2008, we can observe the balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve. After the periodic surge, we can indeed observe the periodic surge of inflation a year later, but most of the time, inflation has little response to the change of balance sheet size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b661b875fd52225ff055b573bda9d7bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other major global economies, including Europe, China and Japan, the size of central bank balance sheets has less to do with inflation.</p><p>Some people stare at the rate of change of broad money, because the definition of broad money does include all the money and credit derived from the base money in a society, which represents the payment ability of the whole society.</p><p>Take the growth rate of US dollar M2 again to observe the relationship between broad money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4566cd8037455a6e2d0f324863cab858\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The relationship between M2 growth rate and inflation is better than the change of asset size, but there is still no rule as a whole.</p><p>More importantly, whether in the United States or China, broad money mainly comes from the expansion of social credit. Although the central bank can affect its expansion speed through rate hike cutting interest rates, printing and collecting money, it is not completely under the control of the central bank after all. It is largely affected by the economic environment, and the central bank must choose a data that it can completely control and manipulate.</p><p>in the case of the US dollar, this data is called \"Currency in Circulation,\" which I call CiC.</p><p>Here is an interpretation of the main components of the Fed's liability side.</p><p>The asset side of the Federal Reserve is the question of what it uses to print money; On the liability side of the Federal Reserve, it is the question of which accounts the money it prints ends up flowing to.</p><p>According to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, at present, the liability side of the Federal Reserve mainly consists of four parts:</p><p><b>1) Bank reserves:</b>Including the statutory reserve and excess reserve of banks, the statutory reserve ratio of the United States is very low. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, the amount of excess reserve deposited by major banks in the accounts of the Federal Reserve has increased rapidly. At present, it is the largest item on the liability side of the Federal Reserve. This money belongs to major banks, but it is placed in the reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve and has not been circulated to the society.</p><p><b>2) Federal government accounts:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the Account opened by the US Treasury Department in the Federal Reserve, commonly known as \"TGA (Treasury General Account)\". The funds shown in it have been deposited in the Federal Reserve Account and have not been circulated to the society. If the US government spends it, the amount of the account will be reduced, that is, it will be circulated to the society.</p><p><b>3) Fed reverse repo account funds:</b>This is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to adjust the credit tightness of the financial market in the short term. It is just the opposite of the reverse repurchase of the People's Bank of China. The reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve is an act of recovering market funds. The funds in it are also deposited in the account of the Federal Reserve, not money circulating in the society. All along, reverse repurchase account funds are not worth mentioning. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to recover excessive liquidity in the financial market, the scale of reverse repurchase has increased rapidly; Since April 2020, the size of this account has soared to a sky, becoming one of the most important liabilities of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>4) Currency in circulation:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the sum of all accounts currently opened in member banks of the Federal Reserve (almost all large and medium-sized banks in the United States are member banks of the Federal Reserve) is the money really circulating in American society.</p><p>Except during the 2008 financial crisis and a very few other times, the sum of these four accounts accounted for more than 90% of the total liabilities of the Federal Reserve, and the current proportion is 96%. It is through the balance of these four accounts that the Federal Reserve adjusts and changes the total amount of money circulating in American society, thus affecting the inflation of the whole society.</p><p>Comparing the annualized growth rate of CiC in the past 20 years with the CPI inflation 12 months later, it can be seen that the growth rate of CiC is highly correlated with inflation, and it can also be seen that the Fed's operating ideas are obvious.</p><p>The adjustment idea is very simple:</p><p><b>When the inflation rate is at a high level and rising, we will try our best to reduce the growth rate of money in circulation;</b></p><p><b>When inflation is low and declining, it will increase the growth rate of money in circulation vigorously.</b></p><p>After the \"9/11 incident\" broke out in 2001, the Federal Reserve greatly increased the amount of money in circulation, which led to the rise of CPI inflation in the United States from the end of 2002, exceeding 2% and remaining above 2%. Then the Fed took a series of measures to withdraw some of the liquidity in the market, and as long as the market inflation rate was high, the CiC growth rate kept it low.</p><p>By the beginning of 2008, the annualized growth rate of money in circulation had fallen to near zero. Shortly thereafter, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, inflation levels fell sharply, and the Federal Reserve immediately opted for money-printing frenzy (QE1). Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, the growth rate of money in circulation has skyrocketed since the end of 2008. Since the middle of 2009, the inflation level in the United States has also skyrocketed from a low level and returned to more than 2%.</p><p>Then, the Federal Reserve chose to stop QE1, and as a result, the growth rate of CiC quickly plummeted. The Federal Reserve had to turn on QE2, so that the growth rate of CiC skyrocketed again, thus keeping the inflation rate in the United States above 2%.</p><p>When the inflation rate in the United States remained at the level of 1%-2%, the Federal Reserve believed that the monetary target had been reached, so it controlled the growth rate of CiC to slowly decline. This process continued until September 2019, and then basically maintained the low growth of CiC. However, with the outbreak of the global COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020, the inflation rate in the United States was at risk of a sharp decline. The Federal Reserve immediately launched unlimited QE and printed money frantically, allowing the growth rate of CiC to continue to skyrocket to an all-time high of nearly 17%...</p><p>In March this year, the inflation rate in the United States rose rapidly again. Although QE continued, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the annualized growth rate of CiC again, lowering it from a high of nearly 17%.</p><p>Observing the changes of the Federal Reserve's liabilities in the past year and a half, we can clearly find the idea of the Federal Reserve manipulating the growth rate of CiC:</p><p>First, through unlimited QE money printing, the balance sheet size has soared by more than 80%; At the same time, however, in order to avoid the chaos in the capital market and social value system that may be caused by the direct doubling of money in the market, the scale of reserves and reverse repo began to soar: the reserve account increased at a rate of more than 100%, while the growth rate of reverse repo account was close to 100%. As for the U.S. Treasury accounts, because the federal government has to deal with the crazy money spreading in the future, its growth rate is more than 1000%...</p><p>Under these three major increases, although the growth rate of money in circulation in society has reached the highest level in history, it is only more than 10%, thus ensuring that the scale of dollar in circulation in the whole society increases in a relatively normal range, and will not subvert the value basis of dollar in the whole society.</p><p>This process continued until March 2021. With the inflation data in the United States \"rapidly exceeding the standard\", the Federal Reserve began to rapidly reduce the growth rate of CiC, by rapidly reducing the growth rate of reserves. In addition, as the money of the US Treasury Department is distributed to people and enterprises by the government, the slowdown of the account quota of the Treasury Department has exceeded 50%. In order to offset this impact, the Federal Reserve strongly started the reverse repurchase account, and the growth rate of the reverse repurchase account quota exceeded 500%...</p><p>Under this series of generous operations, the annualized growth rate of CiC began to gradually decrease, and now it has dropped below 10%, moving towards the level of \"normalization\".</p><p>Obviously, regardless of drastic changes in the size of the total balance sheet, reserves, reverse repurchases, or government accounts (which are controlled by the U.S. Treasury and not the Fed), the Fed's policy goal is to keep the money in circulation in society<b>\"Steady growth\"</b>-On the basis of stable growth, adjust its growth rate according to the level of inflation, and then control future inflation.</p><p>This is the Fed's overall thinking of manipulating dollar inflation.</p><p>In the past, I have written articles to inform you about the manipulation of inflation data by government statistics departments, but inflation manipulation is not only the matter of the statistics bureau alone, but also the matter of central banks, including the Federal Reserve<b>Primary task</b>。</p><p>In fact, as recently as June 2020, with the skyrocketing growth rate of CiC, according to historical laws, the Federal Reserve was already clear that inflation in the United States would inevitably \"greatly exceed the standard\" in the second quarter of 2021, so it put forward the so-called<b>\"Average inflation targeting\"</b>They are just not sure how far this \"exceeding the standard\" can go.</p><p>At present, large-scale QE has become the \"normal operation\" of the Federal Reserve, and it is superimposed with drastic changes in the amount of U.S. government accounts. At this time, the Fed's reserve account and reverse repo account are like a super buffer to absorb the drastic changes in the amount of dollar money. It is conceivable that these two accounts will continue to play this role in the coming year and become the grip for the Fed to manipulate inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, why Powell has always sworn that even if there is inflation, the Fed has a way to deal with it? In fact, it is also his confidence in adjusting the reserve account and reverse repo account.</p><p>As a result, someone asked, saying that the CiC growth rate has rapidly dropped below 10%, beginning to align with the average of the past 10 years, and that the Fed has vowed that it can deal with inflation- -</p><p>So, is inflation in the United States really temporary now, like it was after QE in 2008?</p><p>While this is a different issue, I honestly personally feel that the outcome may not be what the Fed claims. Because the global economic situation now and in the future is completely different from after 2008. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that this round of inflation will probably continue.</p><p>Consider that in mid-2002, CiC grew at an annualized rate, exceeding 10% only for a very short period of time, but in the 5+ years since then, US inflation exceeded 3% for half the time...</p><p>After the crazy money printing so far in early 2020, the severity of global inflation this time will probably exceed that of 20 years ago. After all, inflation is influenced by too many internal and external factors, unlike the Fed's account, you can play it how you want.</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the Fed manipulate global inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the Fed manipulate global inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财主家的余粮</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to the rate at which prices are rising, people typically divide inflation into the following levels:</p><p><b>creeping inflation, where prices rise by 1% ~3% every year;</b></p><p><b>moderate inflation (3% ~6% annual price rise);</b></p><p><b>raging inflation (annual price increase of 6% ~9%);</b></p><p><b>galloping inflation (annual price rise of 10% ~50%);</b></p><p><b>hyper-inflation, where prices rise by more than 50% every year.</b></p><p>By studying the monetary history of the United States for nearly a hundred years between 1867 and 1960, Friedman came to a categorical conclusion about inflation:</p><p><b>\"Inflation, at any time and anywhere, is a monetary phenomenon\".</b></p><p>Furthermore, according to Friedman's research, except for hyperinflation, inflation usually occurs 12-24 months after the issuance of additional money, and the duration is usually longer than 24 months.</p><p>Therefore, how to manipulate inflation, to put it bluntly, is to manipulate the issuance of currency, which is a matter of the central bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c98d63d291d237f8950be12f1a0750f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some people stare at the changes of the central bank's balance sheet to judge the trend of inflation-because the size of the central bank's balance sheet does represent the total scale of money printed by the central bank, and the size of the balance sheet is completely under the control of the central bank.</p><p>There is indeed nothing wrong with this idea. Unfortunately, the reality is very skinny. Apart from the two common denominators that the central bank's balance sheet has been increasing and inflation has been persistent, you can hardly see the relationship between the change in inflation and the change in the size of the central bank's balance sheet.</p><p>For example, since 2008, we can observe the balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve. After the periodic surge, we can indeed observe the periodic surge of inflation a year later, but most of the time, inflation has little response to the change of balance sheet size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b661b875fd52225ff055b573bda9d7bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other major global economies, including Europe, China and Japan, the size of central bank balance sheets has less to do with inflation.</p><p>Some people stare at the rate of change of broad money, because the definition of broad money does include all the money and credit derived from the base money in a society, which represents the payment ability of the whole society.</p><p>Take the growth rate of US dollar M2 again to observe the relationship between broad money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4566cd8037455a6e2d0f324863cab858\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The relationship between M2 growth rate and inflation is better than the change of asset size, but there is still no rule as a whole.</p><p>More importantly, whether in the United States or China, broad money mainly comes from the expansion of social credit. Although the central bank can affect its expansion speed through rate hike cutting interest rates, printing and collecting money, it is not completely under the control of the central bank after all. It is largely affected by the economic environment, and the central bank must choose a data that it can completely control and manipulate.</p><p>in the case of the US dollar, this data is called \"Currency in Circulation,\" which I call CiC.</p><p>Here is an interpretation of the main components of the Fed's liability side.</p><p>The asset side of the Federal Reserve is the question of what it uses to print money; On the liability side of the Federal Reserve, it is the question of which accounts the money it prints ends up flowing to.</p><p>According to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, at present, the liability side of the Federal Reserve mainly consists of four parts:</p><p><b>1) Bank reserves:</b>Including the statutory reserve and excess reserve of banks, the statutory reserve ratio of the United States is very low. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, the amount of excess reserve deposited by major banks in the accounts of the Federal Reserve has increased rapidly. At present, it is the largest item on the liability side of the Federal Reserve. This money belongs to major banks, but it is placed in the reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve and has not been circulated to the society.</p><p><b>2) Federal government accounts:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the Account opened by the US Treasury Department in the Federal Reserve, commonly known as \"TGA (Treasury General Account)\". The funds shown in it have been deposited in the Federal Reserve Account and have not been circulated to the society. If the US government spends it, the amount of the account will be reduced, that is, it will be circulated to the society.</p><p><b>3) Fed reverse repo account funds:</b>This is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to adjust the credit tightness of the financial market in the short term. It is just the opposite of the reverse repurchase of the People's Bank of China. The reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve is an act of recovering market funds. The funds in it are also deposited in the account of the Federal Reserve, not money circulating in the society. All along, reverse repurchase account funds are not worth mentioning. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to recover excessive liquidity in the financial market, the scale of reverse repurchase has increased rapidly; Since April 2020, the size of this account has soared to a sky, becoming one of the most important liabilities of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>4) Currency in circulation:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the sum of all accounts currently opened in member banks of the Federal Reserve (almost all large and medium-sized banks in the United States are member banks of the Federal Reserve) is the money really circulating in American society.</p><p>Except during the 2008 financial crisis and a very few other times, the sum of these four accounts accounted for more than 90% of the total liabilities of the Federal Reserve, and the current proportion is 96%. It is through the balance of these four accounts that the Federal Reserve adjusts and changes the total amount of money circulating in American society, thus affecting the inflation of the whole society.</p><p>Comparing the annualized growth rate of CiC in the past 20 years with the CPI inflation 12 months later, it can be seen that the growth rate of CiC is highly correlated with inflation, and it can also be seen that the Fed's operating ideas are obvious.</p><p>The adjustment idea is very simple:</p><p><b>When the inflation rate is at a high level and rising, we will try our best to reduce the growth rate of money in circulation;</b></p><p><b>When inflation is low and declining, it will increase the growth rate of money in circulation vigorously.</b></p><p>After the \"9/11 incident\" broke out in 2001, the Federal Reserve greatly increased the amount of money in circulation, which led to the rise of CPI inflation in the United States from the end of 2002, exceeding 2% and remaining above 2%. Then the Fed took a series of measures to withdraw some of the liquidity in the market, and as long as the market inflation rate was high, the CiC growth rate kept it low.</p><p>By the beginning of 2008, the annualized growth rate of money in circulation had fallen to near zero. Shortly thereafter, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, inflation levels fell sharply, and the Federal Reserve immediately opted for money-printing frenzy (QE1). Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, the growth rate of money in circulation has skyrocketed since the end of 2008. Since the middle of 2009, the inflation level in the United States has also skyrocketed from a low level and returned to more than 2%.</p><p>Then, the Federal Reserve chose to stop QE1, and as a result, the growth rate of CiC quickly plummeted. The Federal Reserve had to turn on QE2, so that the growth rate of CiC skyrocketed again, thus keeping the inflation rate in the United States above 2%.</p><p>When the inflation rate in the United States remained at the level of 1%-2%, the Federal Reserve believed that the monetary target had been reached, so it controlled the growth rate of CiC to slowly decline. This process continued until September 2019, and then basically maintained the low growth of CiC. However, with the outbreak of the global COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020, the inflation rate in the United States was at risk of a sharp decline. The Federal Reserve immediately launched unlimited QE and printed money frantically, allowing the growth rate of CiC to continue to skyrocket to an all-time high of nearly 17%...</p><p>In March this year, the inflation rate in the United States rose rapidly again. Although QE continued, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the annualized growth rate of CiC again, lowering it from a high of nearly 17%.</p><p>Observing the changes of the Federal Reserve's liabilities in the past year and a half, we can clearly find the idea of the Federal Reserve manipulating the growth rate of CiC:</p><p>First, through unlimited QE money printing, the balance sheet size has soared by more than 80%; At the same time, however, in order to avoid the chaos in the capital market and social value system that may be caused by the direct doubling of money in the market, the scale of reserves and reverse repo began to soar: the reserve account increased at a rate of more than 100%, while the growth rate of reverse repo account was close to 100%. As for the U.S. Treasury accounts, because the federal government has to deal with the crazy money spreading in the future, its growth rate is more than 1000%...</p><p>Under these three major increases, although the growth rate of money in circulation in society has reached the highest level in history, it is only more than 10%, thus ensuring that the scale of dollar in circulation in the whole society increases in a relatively normal range, and will not subvert the value basis of dollar in the whole society.</p><p>This process continued until March 2021. With the inflation data in the United States \"rapidly exceeding the standard\", the Federal Reserve began to rapidly reduce the growth rate of CiC, by rapidly reducing the growth rate of reserves. In addition, as the money of the US Treasury Department is distributed to people and enterprises by the government, the slowdown of the account quota of the Treasury Department has exceeded 50%. In order to offset this impact, the Federal Reserve strongly started the reverse repurchase account, and the growth rate of the reverse repurchase account quota exceeded 500%...</p><p>Under this series of generous operations, the annualized growth rate of CiC began to gradually decrease, and now it has dropped below 10%, moving towards the level of \"normalization\".</p><p>Obviously, regardless of drastic changes in the size of the total balance sheet, reserves, reverse repurchases, or government accounts (which are controlled by the U.S. Treasury and not the Fed), the Fed's policy goal is to keep the money in circulation in society<b>\"Steady growth\"</b>-On the basis of stable growth, adjust its growth rate according to the level of inflation, and then control future inflation.</p><p>This is the Fed's overall thinking of manipulating dollar inflation.</p><p>In the past, I have written articles to inform you about the manipulation of inflation data by government statistics departments, but inflation manipulation is not only the matter of the statistics bureau alone, but also the matter of central banks, including the Federal Reserve<b>Primary task</b>。</p><p>In fact, as recently as June 2020, with the skyrocketing growth rate of CiC, according to historical laws, the Federal Reserve was already clear that inflation in the United States would inevitably \"greatly exceed the standard\" in the second quarter of 2021, so it put forward the so-called<b>\"Average inflation targeting\"</b>They are just not sure how far this \"exceeding the standard\" can go.</p><p>At present, large-scale QE has become the \"normal operation\" of the Federal Reserve, and it is superimposed with drastic changes in the amount of U.S. government accounts. At this time, the Fed's reserve account and reverse repo account are like a super buffer to absorb the drastic changes in the amount of dollar money. It is conceivable that these two accounts will continue to play this role in the coming year and become the grip for the Fed to manipulate inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, why Powell has always sworn that even if there is inflation, the Fed has a way to deal with it? In fact, it is also his confidence in adjusting the reserve account and reverse repo account.</p><p>As a result, someone asked, saying that the CiC growth rate has rapidly dropped below 10%, beginning to align with the average of the past 10 years, and that the Fed has vowed that it can deal with inflation- -</p><p>So, is inflation in the United States really temporary now, like it was after QE in 2008?</p><p>While this is a different issue, I honestly personally feel that the outcome may not be what the Fed claims. Because the global economic situation now and in the future is completely different from after 2008. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that this round of inflation will probably continue.</p><p>Consider that in mid-2002, CiC grew at an annualized rate, exceeding 10% only for a very short period of time, but in the 5+ years since then, US inflation exceeded 3% for half the time...</p><p>After the crazy money printing so far in early 2020, the severity of global inflation this time will probably exceed that of 20 years ago. After all, inflation is influenced by too many internal and external factors, unlike the Fed's account, you can play it how you want.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j-I4SnKxJHxF3XljSZHIKg\">财主家的余粮</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j-I4SnKxJHxF3XljSZHIKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187114664","content_text":"按照价格上升的速度，人们通常将通货膨胀划分为以下几个级别：\n爬行通货膨胀(creeping inflation, 每年物价上升1%~3%);\n温和通货膨胀(moderate inflation, 每年物价上升3%~6%);\n严重通货膨胀(raging inflation, 每年物价上升6%~9%);\n急剧通货膨胀(galloping inflation, 每年物价上升10%~50%);\n超级通货膨胀(hyper-inflation, 每年物价上升50%以上)。\n通过研究美国1867-1960年之间近百年的货币史，关于通货膨胀，弗里德曼得出来了一个斩钉截铁的结论：\n“通货膨胀，在任何时间，在任何地点，都是一个货币现象”。\n进一步地，根据弗里德曼的研究，除了超级通货膨胀之外，通货膨胀的发生，通常都发生在货币增发之后的12-24个月，而且持续时间，通常比24个月更久。\n所以，如何操纵通胀，说白了就是操纵货币的发行，这是央行的事儿。\n\n有人盯着央行的资产负债表变动，以此来判断通胀的走势——因为，央行资产负债表规模，确确实实代表了央行印钞的总规模，而且资产负债表大小完完全全在央行的操控之下。\n这个思路的确没啥问题。可惜，现实却很骨感，除了能看到央行资产负债表一直在增加、而通胀也一直持续这两个共同点之外，你几乎看不到通货膨胀变化与央行资产负债表规模变化之间的关系。\n例如，自2008年以来，我们可以观察到美联储的资产负债表规模，在阶段性的暴涨过后，的确能观察到一年之后的通胀也阶段性暴涨之外，但绝大部分时间通胀对资产负债表规模的变化几乎没有反应。\n\n其他的全球主要经济体，包括欧洲、中国和日本，央行资产负债表规模与通胀的关系更小。\n有人盯着广义货币的变化速率，因为广义货币的定义，的确包含了一个社会上由基础货币所衍生出来的所有货币和信贷，代表着整个社会的支付能力。\n再次拿美元M2增速，来观察广义货币与通货膨胀的关系。\n\nM2增长率与通货膨胀的关系比资产规模变化好一些，但整体还是看不出来什么规律。\n更重要的是，无论美国还是中国，广义货币主要来自于社会信贷的扩张，央行固然可以通过加息降息印钞收钞来影响其扩张速度，但毕竟不是完全在央行的管控之下，其很大程度上，受到经济环境的影响，而央行必须选一个自己能够完全掌控和操纵的数据。\n就美元而言，这个数据叫“流通中的货币（Currency in Circulation）” ，我称之为CiC。\n这里解读一下美联储负债端的主要构成。\n美联储的资产端，是它拿什么来印钞的问题；而美联储的负债端，则是它所印的钱，最终都流向了哪些账户的问题。\n根据美联储的资产负债表，目前，美联储的负债端主要由4个部分构成：\n1）银行准备金：包括了银行的法定准备金和超额准备金，美国的法定准备金率很低，但是自2008年全球金融危机以来，各大银行存放在美联储账户上的超额准备金额度迅速增长，目前是美联储负债端第一大项，这些钱隶属于各大银行，但是放在美联储的准备金账户上，未流通到社会上。\n2）联邦政府账户：这个没什么好说的，就是美国财政部开在美联储的账户，俗称为“TGA（Treasury General Account）”，这里面所显示的资金，一直存放在美联储账户上，并未流通到社会上。如果美国政府花出去，账户额会降低，就是流通到了社会上。\n3）美联储的逆回购账户资金：这是美联储用于短期调节金融市场信用松紧的工具，和中国央行的逆回购正好相反，美联储逆回购是收回市场资金的举动，这里面的资金，也是存放在美联储的账户上，不是社会上流通的钱。一直以来，逆回购账户资金不值一提。但自2008年全球金融危机之后，为了收回金融市场上过多的流动性，逆回购规模快速增长；从2020年4月份开始，这个账户规模更是飙升至天量，成为美联储最主要的负债端之一。\n4）流通中的货币：这个没啥说的，就是目前开在美联储会员银行（美国几乎所有的大中型银行都是美联储的会员银行）所有账户资金总和，是真正流通在美国社会上的钱。\n除了2008年金融危机期间及其他极少数时间，这4个账户总和，占到美联储负债总规模的90%以上，目前占比是96%。美联储正是通过这4个账户的平衡，来调节和改变美国社会上所流通的货币总量，进而影响整个社会的通货膨胀情况。\n把过去20年里CiC的年化增长率与12个月后的CPI通胀进行对比，除了能看出来CiC的增长率与通胀相关性很高之外，也明显看出美联储的操作思路。\n调节思路非常简单：\n通胀率处于高位且上升阶段，就想方设法降低流通货币增长率；\n通胀率处于低位且下降阶段，就使劲儿增加流通货币的增长率。\n2001年“911事件”爆发之后，美联储大肆增加流通货币数量，由此导致从2002年底开始，美国的CPI通胀开始上升并突破2%并一直保持在2%以上。随后美联储就采取一系列措施，收回市场上的一部分流动性，而且只要市场通胀率位于高位，CiC的增长率就一直让其保持在低位。\n到了2008年初，流通货币的年化增长率已经降至接近于0的水平。此后不久，又爆发了由次贷危机引发的全球金融危机，通胀水平急剧下降，美联储立即选择了疯狂印钞（QE1）。在美联储的操纵之下，自2008年底开始，流通货币增长率暴涨，从2009年年中开始，美国通胀水平也从低位开始暴涨并回到了2%以上。\n然后，美联储选择了停止QE1，结果CiC的增长率很快暴跌，美联储不得不开启QE2，让CiC的增长率再度暴涨，由此才将美国的通胀率维持在2%以上。\n当美国的通胀率维持在1%-2%水平的时候，美联储认为已经达成了货币目标，于是控制CiC的增长率缓慢下降，这一过程一直持续到2019年9月份，此后基本维持CiC低位增长。但随着2020年3月份全球新冠疫情的爆发，美国通胀率有急剧下降风险，美联储立即启动了无限QE，疯狂印钞，让CiC的增长率持续暴涨到近17%的历史极高位……\n今年3月份，美国的通胀率再度迅速上升，虽然还在持续QE，但美联储就又开始着手降低CiC的年化增长率，将其从近17%的高位降下来。\n观察最近一年半来美联储的负债项变化，可以清晰地发现美联储操纵CiC增长率的思路：\n先是通过无限QE印钞，资产负债表规模暴涨了80%以上；但同时，为避免市场上货币直接翻倍可能导致的资本市场及社会价值体系混乱，准备金和逆回购规模开始暴涨：准备金账户以超过100%的速度增加，而逆回购账户的增长率也接近100%。至于美国财政部账户，因为联邦政府要应对未来的疯狂撒钱，其增长率更是超过1000%……\n在这三个大项增长之下，社会上流通的货币增长率尽管达到了有史以来的最高水平，但也仅仅是超过了10%，从而确保整个社会流通美元的规模在一个相对正常的范围增长，不至于颠覆整个社会的美元价值基础。\n这一过程一直持续到2021年3月份，随着美国的通胀数据的“迅速超标”，美联储开始火速降低CiC的增长率，办法就是快速降低准备金的增速。另外，随着美国财政部的钱都被政府发给民众和企业，财政部账户额度的降速更是超过了50%。为抵消这个影响，美联储又强力启动逆回购账户，逆回购账户额度增速超过了500%……\n在这一系列大手笔操作之下，CiC的年化增长率开始逐渐降低，目前已经降低到了10%以下，向着“正常化”的水平迈进。\n显然，不管资产负债表总规模、准备金、逆回购或者政府账户（这个受美国财政部控制，不是美联储说了算）的额度如何剧烈变化，美联储的政策目标，就是始终保持社会上流通货币的“稳定增长”——在稳定增长的基础上，根据通货膨胀的高低，调整其增长率，进而对未来通胀加以操控。\n这就是美联储操纵美元通货膨胀的整体思路。\n以前，我曾经写过文章，告知大家关于各国政府统计部门对于通胀数据的操纵，但通胀操纵这事儿，可不仅仅是统计局一家的事儿，更是包括美联储在内各国央行的首要任务。\n实际上，就在2020年6月，随着CiC增长率的暴涨，根据历史规律，美联储已经很清楚， 2021年二季度美国的通胀必然会 “大大超标”，所以才提出来了所谓的“平均通胀目标制”，他们只是不确定这个“超标”能够超到什么程度而已。\n目前，大规模QE变成了美联储的“正常操作”，而且叠加了美国政府账户额度的剧烈变化。此时，美联储的准备金账户和逆回购账户，就像是吸收美元货币量剧烈变化的超级缓冲器。可以想象的是，在未来一年内，这两个账户还将持续发挥这种作用，并成为美联储操纵通胀的抓手。\n进一步地，鲍威尔为什么一直信誓旦旦地说，即使出现了通胀，美联储也有办法进行应对，其实也是对于调节准备金账户和逆回购账户的自信。\n这么一来，有人就问了，说现在CiC增长率已经迅速降低到了10%以下，开始向过去10年的平均水平看齐，而且美联储也信誓旦旦地说能够应对通胀——\n那么，现在美国的通胀是不是就真的是暂时的，像2008年的QE之后一样？\n虽然说，这是另外一个问题，但老实说，我个人觉得，结果可能不是美联储所宣称的那样。因为现在以及未来的全球经济状况，与2008年之后完全不一样。在以往文章里，我也多次强调，这一轮的通胀，大概率会持续下去。\n想想看，2002年年中，CiC的年化增长率，只是在极短时期内超过了10%，但在此后5年多的时间里，美国的通胀率在一半时间里都超过了3%……\n2020年初迄今的疯狂印钞之后，这一次的全球通胀，其严重性大概率会超过20年前。毕竟，通胀这玩意儿，有太多的内部和外部因素影响，可不像美联储的账户一样，自己想怎么玩，就怎么玩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835541296,"gmtCreate":1629728779915,"gmtModify":1676530114551,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835541296","repostId":"1113035690","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113035690","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629722832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113035690?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 20:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Holdings: Repurchase 230,000 shares at a cost of HK$101 million today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113035690","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月23日，腾讯控股发布公告：2021年8月23日耗资1.01亿港元回购23万股股票，回购价格每股432-443.8港元。","content":"<p>On August 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Announcement: On 23 August 2021, 230,000 shares were repurchased at a cost of HK$101 million at a repurchase price of HK$432-443.8 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca8261fa186aff7ebf9829f7f0feae2\" tg-width=\"1561\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Holdings: Repurchase 230,000 shares at a cost of HK$101 million today\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-23 20:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Announcement: On 23 August 2021, 230,000 shares were repurchased at a cost of HK$101 million at a repurchase price of HK$432-443.8 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca8261fa186aff7ebf9829f7f0feae2\" tg-width=\"1561\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113035690","content_text":"8月23日，腾讯控股发布公告：2021年8月23日耗资1.01亿港元回购23万股股票，回购价格每股432-443.8港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831495517,"gmtCreate":1629339138439,"gmtModify":1676530007526,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831495517","repostId":"2160535027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160535027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629331790,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160535027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Voting Committee next year: End QE in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike is reasonable in the fourth quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160535027","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他倾向于美联储在2022年一季度完成减码QE的任务，2022年第四季度是开始加息的最“合乎逻辑的地方”。美国经济显然已经适应流行病疫情，德尔塔变异毒株的扩散可能并不会阻碍经济的适应能力","content":"<p>On Wednesday, Bullard, the voting committee of the Fed next year and president of the St. Louis Fed, said,<b>He prefers the Fed to complete the task of reducing QE in the first quarter of 2022,</b>Thus allowing the Fed to keep moving forward and open the door to rate hike.<b>So far, the fourth quarter of 2022 is the most \"logical place\" to start a rate hike.</b></p><p>Bullard said the Fed needs to consider the huge \"inflationary shock\" experienced by the U.S. economy when adjusting monetary policy.<b>Inflation in 2022 is likely to be higher than \"what we're willing to admit,\" and U.S. inflation is expected to be above 2.5% in 2022, with the risk of further growth, which will force the Fed into inflation-fighting mode.</b>Currently, businesses have pricing power, and they are confident to pass on increases in input prices to consumers.</p><p>Bullard said he opposes raising the Fed's inflation target to 3% from the current 2%. He believes this will lead to turmoil in financial markets. Earlier this week, several former Fed economists supported raising the inflation target to a higher level.</p><p>Bullard's view on inflation is more akin to the concerns about inflation in the market, and is at odds with Fed Chair Powell's constant reiteration that \"the continued rise in inflation in recent months is a temporary phenomenon.\"</p><p>For the labor market, Bullard expects to see the job market return to pre-COVID levels by March 2022. In fact, he doesn't see the need for the strength of the labor market to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Overall, Bullard said, the U.S. has made a lot of progress toward a Federal Reserve (maintaining price stability and achieving full employment).<b>The U.S. economy has clearly adapted to the epidemic, and the spread of the Delta variant may not hinder the economy's ability to adapt.</b></p><p>Bullard is the \"pigeon-to-hawk\" representative on the Fed's monetary policy issue. He once stood on a dovish side, but the current expectation of reducing QE and rate hike is obviously faster than the mainstream expectation of Wall Street. This week, the Wall Street Journal analyzed that there was almost an agreement within the Federal Reserve on tapering QE: it will start tapering QE in about three months, and some officials pushed for the end of asset purchases by the middle of next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Fed meeting released on the same day on Wednesday showed that at the July FOMC meeting, Fed officials explicitly discussed Taper for the first time since the epidemic, and the Fed hinted at action within this year. Most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year. Some people think that Taper may start in the next few months, while others think that it should start early next year; Many people pointed out that when it is appropriate to slow down bond purchases, it is important for the FOMC to clearly confirm that there is no correlation between the Taper time point and the rate hike time point.</p><p>In fact, while the Fed has yet to officially announce a QE taper, investors have already begun to prepare. The sell-off of small-cap stocks and overseas stocks in U.S. stocks is one of the market changes, although the broader U.S. stock market remains strong. According to CNBC, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said: \"[In fact] we've been in the Taper phase for a few months, and the reaction in the market is very obvious. The Taper started in March, and it affected everything. The market has the same reaction that you think Taper will have.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Voting Committee next year: End QE in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike is reasonable in the fourth quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Voting Committee next year: End QE in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike is reasonable in the fourth quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, Bullard, the voting committee of the Fed next year and president of the St. Louis Fed, said,<b>He prefers the Fed to complete the task of reducing QE in the first quarter of 2022,</b>Thus allowing the Fed to keep moving forward and open the door to rate hike.<b>So far, the fourth quarter of 2022 is the most \"logical place\" to start a rate hike.</b></p><p>Bullard said the Fed needs to consider the huge \"inflationary shock\" experienced by the U.S. economy when adjusting monetary policy.<b>Inflation in 2022 is likely to be higher than \"what we're willing to admit,\" and U.S. inflation is expected to be above 2.5% in 2022, with the risk of further growth, which will force the Fed into inflation-fighting mode.</b>Currently, businesses have pricing power, and they are confident to pass on increases in input prices to consumers.</p><p>Bullard said he opposes raising the Fed's inflation target to 3% from the current 2%. He believes this will lead to turmoil in financial markets. Earlier this week, several former Fed economists supported raising the inflation target to a higher level.</p><p>Bullard's view on inflation is more akin to the concerns about inflation in the market, and is at odds with Fed Chair Powell's constant reiteration that \"the continued rise in inflation in recent months is a temporary phenomenon.\"</p><p>For the labor market, Bullard expects to see the job market return to pre-COVID levels by March 2022. In fact, he doesn't see the need for the strength of the labor market to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Overall, Bullard said, the U.S. has made a lot of progress toward a Federal Reserve (maintaining price stability and achieving full employment).<b>The U.S. economy has clearly adapted to the epidemic, and the spread of the Delta variant may not hinder the economy's ability to adapt.</b></p><p>Bullard is the \"pigeon-to-hawk\" representative on the Fed's monetary policy issue. He once stood on a dovish side, but the current expectation of reducing QE and rate hike is obviously faster than the mainstream expectation of Wall Street. This week, the Wall Street Journal analyzed that there was almost an agreement within the Federal Reserve on tapering QE: it will start tapering QE in about three months, and some officials pushed for the end of asset purchases by the middle of next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Fed meeting released on the same day on Wednesday showed that at the July FOMC meeting, Fed officials explicitly discussed Taper for the first time since the epidemic, and the Fed hinted at action within this year. Most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery meets expectations, it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year. Some people think that Taper may start in the next few months, while others think that it should start early next year; Many people pointed out that when it is appropriate to slow down bond purchases, it is important for the FOMC to clearly confirm that there is no correlation between the Taper time point and the rate hike time point.</p><p>In fact, while the Fed has yet to officially announce a QE taper, investors have already begun to prepare. The sell-off of small-cap stocks and overseas stocks in U.S. stocks is one of the market changes, although the broader U.S. stock market remains strong. According to CNBC, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said: \"[In fact] we've been in the Taper phase for a few months, and the reaction in the market is very obvious. The Taper started in March, and it affected everything. The market has the same reaction that you think Taper will have.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638289\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638289","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160535027","content_text":"周三，明年美联储FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他倾向于美联储在2022年一季度完成减码QE的任务，从而允许美联储继续向前推进，打开加息的大门。到目前为止，2022年第四季度是开始加息的最“合乎逻辑的地方”。\n布拉德表示，在调整货币政策时，美联储需要考虑美国经济所经历的巨大“通胀冲击”。2022年的通胀率可能会高于“我们愿意承认的”水平，预计美国通胀将在2022年位于2.5%上方，并且有进一步增长的风险，这将迫使美联储进入抗通胀模式。目前，企业拥有定价权，他们有信心将投入品价格的上涨转嫁给消费者。\n布拉德表示，他反对将美联储的通胀目标从目前的2%上调至3%。他认为这将导致金融市场动荡。本周早些时候，几位前美联储经济学家支持将通胀目标提高到更高的水平。\n布拉德对通胀的观点更类似于市场上对通胀的担忧，与美联储主席鲍威尔不断重申的“最近几个月来通胀持续走高是暂时的现象”并不一致。\n对于劳动力市场，布拉德预计到2022年3月，将看到就业市场恢复至新冠疫情爆发之前的水平。事实上，他认为无需让劳动力市场的强劲程度恢复至疫情之前的水平。\n总体来看，布拉德说，美国已经朝着实现美联储（维持物价稳定和实现充分就业）取得大量进展。美国经济显然已经适应流行病疫情，德尔塔变异毒株的扩散可能并不会阻碍经济的适应能力。\n布拉德是美联储货币政策问题上“鸽转鹰”的代表。他一度立场偏鸽派，但当前对缩减QE和加息的预期，明显快于华尔街的主流预期。本周华尔街日报分析称，美联储内部就缩减QE近乎达成一致：将在大约三个月内开始缩减QE，一些官员推动在明年年中结束资产购买。\n周三同日公布的美联储会议纪要显示，7月FOMC会议上，美联储官员们疫情以来首次明确讨论Taper，美联储暗示今年内行动。多数美联储决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，可能适合今年开始放慢购债步伐，有人认为未来几个月可能开始Taper，还有人认为应明年初开始；多人指出，当适合减慢购债时，FOMC清晰确认Taper时点和加息时点之间毫无关联很重要。\n事实上，虽然美联储尚未正式宣布缩减QE，但投资者已经开始做了准备。美股小盘股和海外股市的抛售是市场变化之一，不过美股大盘仍保持强劲。据CNBC，Leuthold集团的首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen说：“（事实上）我们已经进入缩减购债阶段有几个月了，在市场上反应非常明显，缩减购债从3月份开始，它影响了一切，市场已有的反应和你认为Taper会产生的反应一样。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831495300,"gmtCreate":1629339092000,"gmtModify":1676530007518,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831495300","repostId":"2160341047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160341047","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629334349,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160341047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The world's largest sovereign fund made $600 million a day in the first half of the year! Look what you bought?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160341047","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，全球最大主权基金挪威政府全球养老基金表示，在2021年上半年基金回报率为9.4%，回报约为9900亿挪威克朗，日赚约6亿美元。截至2021年6月30日，该基金的资管规模为1.356万亿美元。挪威政府全球养老基金首席执行官Nicolai Tangen本周早些时候表示，通胀现在正成为最大的威胁，股市和债市都可能受到影响。自从Tangen担任首席执行官以来，挪威政府全球养老基金更加公开地表示将致力于可持续发展。","content":"<p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign Fund, said that in the first half of 2021, the Fund returned 9.4%, with a return of about NOK 990 billion (contracted US$111 billion) and a daily earning of about US$600 million.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the fund's AUM was $1.356 trillion. Of these, 72.4% are invested in stocks, 25.1% in fixed income, 2.4% in unlisted real estate and 0.1% in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure.</p><p>Among them, the yield on stock investments is 13.7%, the yield on fixed income investments is negative 2.0%, and the yield on unlisted real estate investments is 4.6%. Unlisted renewable energy infrastructure returned negative 1.9%. The fund returned 28 basis points more than the benchmark index.</p><p>Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of the Norwegian government's global pension fund, said earlier this week that inflation is now becoming the biggest threat, with both stock and bond markets likely to suffer. In the meantime, the debate continues over whether the price increase is \"temporary\" or if it will become more persistent. Inflation in the United States has been above 5% for the past two months, the highest level in more than a decade.</p><p>\"The strongest performers during the period were in sectors affected by inflation, such as energy, finance, materials, real estate and industrial stocks,\" the fund said. \"Stocks with the highest returns shifted from growth stocks to value stocks.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/474f9c1facdd7b3241d8b4656da334c8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since Tangen became CEO, the Norwegian Government Global Pension Fund has been more public about its commitment to sustainability. The fund plans to step up its pace and divest companies that are at risk from an environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) perspective. It will also limit its exposure to emerging markets as part of the same strategy.</p><p>At the same time, the fund has been pushing for a broader weighting shift, shifting its investment focus from Europe to North America in pursuit of higher returns. On Wednesday, the company reported a 16.8% increase in the value of its tech investments, driven largely by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And the continued growth of digital advertising by big tech companies.</p><p>Both the health and tech sectors reaped significant returns throughout the pandemic and continued to grow in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the fund returned 17% in North American equities and accounted for 45.2% of the equity portfolio.</p><p>At the end of June, the fund's equity portfolio accounted for 72.4% of total assets, slightly lower than in the first quarter, suggesting that investing in the fund has already had to reduce its stock market exposure so as not to deviate too far from its 70% target. About 5 years ago, the fund was required to hold only 60% of its portfolio.</p><p>Government Global Pension Fund The fund's first foray into renewable infrastructure earlier this year. The move marks another expansion of the fund's asset class, which was previously limited to stocks, bonds and real estate.</p><p>According to the 2020 annual report, the fund's top three holdings in China are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>(09988)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>And Meituan (03690), with market capitalizations of US$6.49 billion, US$5.8 billion and US$1.94 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9dded3951c6ca924a2bc67d5665b656\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The world's largest sovereign fund made $600 million a day in the first half of the year! Look what you bought?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe world's largest sovereign fund made $600 million a day in the first half of the year! Look what you bought?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign Fund, said that in the first half of 2021, the Fund returned 9.4%, with a return of about NOK 990 billion (contracted US$111 billion) and a daily earning of about US$600 million.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the fund's AUM was $1.356 trillion. Of these, 72.4% are invested in stocks, 25.1% in fixed income, 2.4% in unlisted real estate and 0.1% in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure.</p><p>Among them, the yield on stock investments is 13.7%, the yield on fixed income investments is negative 2.0%, and the yield on unlisted real estate investments is 4.6%. Unlisted renewable energy infrastructure returned negative 1.9%. The fund returned 28 basis points more than the benchmark index.</p><p>Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of the Norwegian government's global pension fund, said earlier this week that inflation is now becoming the biggest threat, with both stock and bond markets likely to suffer. In the meantime, the debate continues over whether the price increase is \"temporary\" or if it will become more persistent. Inflation in the United States has been above 5% for the past two months, the highest level in more than a decade.</p><p>\"The strongest performers during the period were in sectors affected by inflation, such as energy, finance, materials, real estate and industrial stocks,\" the fund said. \"Stocks with the highest returns shifted from growth stocks to value stocks.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/474f9c1facdd7b3241d8b4656da334c8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since Tangen became CEO, the Norwegian Government Global Pension Fund has been more public about its commitment to sustainability. The fund plans to step up its pace and divest companies that are at risk from an environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) perspective. It will also limit its exposure to emerging markets as part of the same strategy.</p><p>At the same time, the fund has been pushing for a broader weighting shift, shifting its investment focus from Europe to North America in pursuit of higher returns. On Wednesday, the company reported a 16.8% increase in the value of its tech investments, driven largely by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And the continued growth of digital advertising by big tech companies.</p><p>Both the health and tech sectors reaped significant returns throughout the pandemic and continued to grow in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the fund returned 17% in North American equities and accounted for 45.2% of the equity portfolio.</p><p>At the end of June, the fund's equity portfolio accounted for 72.4% of total assets, slightly lower than in the first quarter, suggesting that investing in the fund has already had to reduce its stock market exposure so as not to deviate too far from its 70% target. About 5 years ago, the fund was required to hold only 60% of its portfolio.</p><p>Government Global Pension Fund The fund's first foray into renewable infrastructure earlier this year. The move marks another expansion of the fund's asset class, which was previously limited to stocks, bonds and real estate.</p><p>According to the 2020 annual report, the fund's top three holdings in China are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>(09988)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>And Meituan (03690), with market capitalizations of US$6.49 billion, US$5.8 billion and US$1.94 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9dded3951c6ca924a2bc67d5665b656\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/538460.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f6cd84096ca9b3b893fb788b76d134","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","03690":"美团-W","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/538460.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160341047","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，全球最大主权基金挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global）表示，在2021年上半年基金回报率为9.4%，回报约为9900亿挪威克朗（合约1110亿美元），日赚约6亿美元。\n截至2021年6月30日，该基金的资管规模为1.356万亿美元。其中72.4%投资于股票，25.1%投资于固定收益，2.4%投资于未上市房地产，0.1%投资于未上市的可再生能源基础设施。\n其中股票投资的收益率为13.7%，固定收益投资的收益率为负2.0%，未上市房地产投资的收益率为4.6%。未上市的可再生能源基础设施的回报率为负1.9%。该基金的回报率比基准指数高出28个基点。\n挪威政府全球养老基金首席执行官Nicolai Tangen本周早些时候表示，通胀现在正成为最大的威胁，股市和债市都可能受到影响。在此期间，关于价格上涨是“暂时的”还是会变得更加持久的争论仍在继续。过去两个月，美国的通胀率一直在5%以上，是10多年来的最高水平。\n该基金表示:“在此期间表现最强劲的是受通胀影响较大的行业，如能源、金融、材料、房地产和工业类股。”“回报率最高的股票从成长型股票转向了价值型股票。”自从Tangen担任首席执行官以来，挪威政府全球养老基金更加公开地表示将致力于可持续发展。该基金计划加快步伐，剥离从环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）角度来看存在风险的公司。作为同一战略的一部分，它还将限制其在新兴市场的敞口。\n与此同时，该基金一直在推动更广泛的权重调整，将投资重心从欧洲转移到北美，以追求更高的回报。周三，该公司公布其投资的科技股价值增加了16.8%，其增长动力主要来自苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL.US)和亚马逊等大型科技公司数字广告的持续增长。\n在整个疫情流行期间，卫生和科技板块都获得了可观的回报，并且在今年上半年继续保持增长。今年上半年，该基金在北美股市的回报率为17%，占股票投资组合的45.2%。\n截至6月底，该基金的股票投资组合占总资产的72.4%，略低于第一季度，这表明投该基金已经不得不减少其股市敞口，以免偏离70%的目标太远。大约5年前，该基金被要求持有的股票只能占其投资组合的60%。\n政府全球养老基金今年早些时候该基金首次涉足可再生基础设施。此举标志着该基金的资产类别再次扩大，此前该基金的资产类别仅限于股票、债券和房地产。\n根据2020年年报，该基金的中国持仓前三大重仓股分别为阿里巴巴(09988)、腾讯控股和美团(03690)，持仓市值分别为64.9亿美元、58亿美元和19.4亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"00700":0.9,"09988":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9,"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831492629,"gmtCreate":1629339052461,"gmtModify":1676530007494,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831492629","repostId":"1168385577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168385577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629337898,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168385577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168385577","media":"深燃","summary":"L5级无人驾驶车辆什么时候能大规模量产，还没有人能给出准确答案。不过，汽车机器人已经亮相了。\n在8月18日召开的“百度世界大会2021”上，百度展示了全球首款L5级自动驾驶汽车机器人。“未来机器人的主","content":"<p>No one can give an accurate answer to when L5 driverless vehicles will be mass-produced. However, the car<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Already unveiled.</p><p>On August 18, the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>At the World Congress 2021 \", Baidu showed off the world's first L5 autonomous car robot. \"The main form of future robots is automotive robots,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Cars are becoming more and more like robots, \"which is Baidu's judgment on the future direction of automobile development.</p><p>Travel is the key word of this Baidu World Congress, and autonomous driving is also one of the most noteworthy businesses in Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report recently released. Baidu disclosed that its Apollo ACE intelligent transportation has tens of millions of orders covering more than 20 cities. Robin Li, chairman and CEO of Baidu, also said that Baidu Robotaxi (self-driving taxi service) will be profitable by 2025 at the earliest.</p><p>Some people think that Baidu is targeting the trillion-dollar market behind Robotaxi. IHS, the world's authoritative research consultancy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>A recently released report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% market share.</p><p>Who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track? Does the emergence of \"car robots\" mean that the unmanned version of the online car-hailing war started ahead of schedule? With the commercialization of Baidu's AI business, especially Apollo-related business, is the capital market willing to give Baidu a more positive valuation? This article attempts to answer these questions.</p><p><b>Baidu \"Run Fast\"</b></p><p>What is it like to hit a \"real\" driverless car?</p><p>At the \"Baidu World Conference 2021\", Robin Li took the host Sa Beining to experience it and sat on Baidu Apollo \"car robot\". It has no steering wheel or pedals, and has L5 autonomous driving capability, without the need for human driving.</p><p>According to the official introduction, Apollo car robot knows how to communicate and learn, can analyze the potential needs of users, and actively provide services in various scenarios. The internal and external designs of \"robot\" are very futuristic, with intelligent configurations such as super-large curved screen and intelligent console. Sa Beining described entering the car as if you were in a private cinema.</p><p>In the same space, Li used two photos taken on New York's Fifth Avenue (1900 and 1913) to tell that \"it only took 13 years for cars to replace horse-drawn carriages as the mainstream means of transportation.\" A hundred years later, the number of cars in the Chinese market alone has reached 292 million (as of June 2021), and the number of cars worldwide has exceeded 700 million.</p><p>How many years will it take from the emergence of \"car robots\" to the popularization of unmanned vehicles?</p><p>Baidu now uses a car robot and a travel platform to tell the outside world that commercialization can be faster and the cycle can be shorter.</p><p>On the same day, Baidu also released the unmanned vehicle travel service platform \"Radish (from the transliteration of Robot) Run\", which is equivalent to the brand upgrade of Apollo Go. It continues to introduce unmanned vehicle travel services to the public, and plans to land in 30 cities within three years.</p><p>Nowadays, autonomous driving has gradually become an industry consensus in the second half. According to the IHS Markit report, the total market size of shared mobility in China will reach 2.25 trillion by 2030, with a compound growth rate of between 20%-28%. Among them, Robotaxi will account for 60%, with a scale of 1.3 trillion yuan.</p><p>Essence Securities has measured the market size of domestic Robotaxi with the formula of \"market size = total passenger mileage * penetration rate * unit price\": in 2030, the total domestic passenger mileage is expected to reach 10 trillion kilometers, and the penetration rate of Robotaxi is expected to reach 6%-22% (refer to McKinsey's Outlook of Autonomous Driving Industry under the New Normal). The unit price is 2 yuan/km. On the whole, the travel market brought by Robotaxi is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion-4.4 trillion yuan in 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92eed31529ef484a2b8d766a800f254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"805\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Qi Su, an insider in the industry, commented that obviously, Baidu is aiming at the trillion market space behind Robotaxi, and now it is going to \"run fast\".</p><p>IHS Markit report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% of the market share. Only giant enterprises with deep involvement now can occupy a favorable position in the competition in the next decade. Baidu's advanced layout and leading position in the Internet of Vehicles and ADAS markets will bring important first-mover advantages to Robotaxi competition.</p><p>The report also mentioned that judging from the current technological development trend, the short-term assembly cost of L4 is still the main bottleneck of development. Baidu recently disclosed that its fifth-generation shared unmanned vehicle Apollo Moon currently reaches the L4 standard, and the cost of this vehicle is about one-third of that of similar vehicles in the industry, which is about 480,000 yuan. Robin Li revealed on the 2021Q2 earnings call that when there are 50 million orders per day, the cost of Robotaxi will be 1/5 of what it is now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e95b1a2242f5dd0778c07a434d63203e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Various factors are bound to accelerate the industry's commercialization exploration of Robotaxi and enhance the market space.</p><p><b>To preempt the Robotaxi era, you need three customs clearance cards</b></p><p>Then the question is, who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track.</p><p>In this track, there are now four forces: travel service platforms, technology companies, car factories and autonomous driving start-ups, each of which has its own strengths in technical fields such as algorithms and data. However, unlike other industries, the networked operation of Robotaxi is more complicated. Getting the ticket requires at least three customs clearance cards: technology, travel network and car building.</p><p>Technology, is the first customs clearance card. Only by meeting the requirements of the technical threshold of L4-level autonomous driving, having the ability to remove safety officers and solve the long tail problem can we eliminate the driver's salary (accounting for about 70%), the most important operating cost of online car-hailing at this stage, and the business model can be completely run through.</p><p>At present, the players who are exploring L4 Robotaxi technology are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>, Baidu, as well as AutoX, Pony.ai, WeRide, Yuanrong Qixing, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c514732da345add90a3bdc603a0d93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second customs clearance card is to have enough operational data and market size. Only big platform companies have these two points at the same time.</p><p>The competition between Baidu and Didi in China is the fiercest. On April 19th last year, Baidu officially opened Robotaxi service to all citizens in Changsha, followed closely by Didi, which announced on June 27th that it would launch a large-scale trial operation of Robotaxi in Jiading, Shanghai, which would be open to all the public in Shanghai. From Baidu to Didi, from Guangzhou, Changsha to Shanghai, domestic autonomous driving head enterprises have made efforts one after another, so that domestic Robotaxi will enter the stage of large-scale operation in 2020.</p><p>Guosheng Securities believes that whoever has the strongest shared travel network has a better chance of winning. Didi has 377 million domestic taxi users, an average daily order of 25 million in China, accounting for 81% of the taxi market share, and has the largest after-service market such as charging network in China, and sufficient B-end resources such as car companies and car rental companies. The conclusion is that when the technical difference is not big enough, Didi's moat is the mind of C-end users and the service network of B-end.</p><p>However, in terms of large-scale operation of unmanned vehicle services, Baidu has made faster progress. Up to now, Baidu has covered the largest number of cities, and has conducted Robotaxi tests in more than 27 cities around the world, with the largest fleet size, reaching 500 vehicles.</p><p>Recently, Didi, a traditional shared travel service provider, is also supplying its technical capabilities. In April this year, it released the first five-hour takeover-free driving video in the world, and it is possible to compete with Baidu on Robotaxi service in the future.</p><p>Building a car is the third customs clearance card, and it is also a corner overtaking card. To a certain extent, the scale advantage of the supply side determines the choice of users on the demand side. In the traditional shared travel era, Didi has a great advantage on the user side, which means that in the Robotaxi era, whoever has enough autonomous vehicles on the supply side is on the offensive in the competition.</p><p>In November last year, Didi United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The customized online car-hailing D1 model was launched. As of May this year, Didi D1 has exceeded 1,000 units in Ningbo. In March this year, Baidu announced that it would \"join hands\" with Geely to build a car and set up its car brand Jidu. According to reports, it will take about three years to achieve mass production.</p><p>Guosheng Securities said that future head competitors, such as Baidu and even Huawei, which said it would not do Robotaxi for the time being, own most autonomous vehicles on the market through car building or cooperation with car companies. If they can grasp the supply side and push Robotaxi taxi business in the future, it will not be difficult to overtake Didi.</p><p>In the final analysis, the core of the competition of Robotaxi players is not only the need of three customs clearance cards, but also the overall test of technology, capital and business ecology.</p><p>IHS Markit's view is that Baidu has advantages in traffic ecology and cutting-edge technical capabilities. The former means that Baidu has Baidu Map and mobile ecology to provide the traffic base, while the latter means that in the overall autonomous driving assistance market, with the launch of Baidu Apollo pilot assisted driving AVP and autonomous parking ANP solutions, and the continuous growth of Baidu Apollo ecological partner alliance, it is estimated that the overall capacity and market size of Apollo autonomous driving service will reach about 38% in 2030. With the overall car link penetration rate increasing to 100%, the market share of Xiaodu Assistant Car Edition in the overall market is expected to reach 40% by 2030.</p><p><b>Is Apollo the biggest variable in Baidu's valuation?</b></p><p>For a long time, many brokers have fluctuated greatly in the valuation of Baidu, especially intelligent driving in its frontier business. Questioners are generally bad because of the monetization problem of the industry, while optimistic people compare it to \"Android in the automobile industry\", thinking that it is expected to become the primary scene for AI to be widely implemented in to C, and even commercialized through to B, to G and to C multiple modes. In fact, the commercialization progress and due valuation of Baidu's intelligent driving business continue to change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de2f890256cf8d590c9ae84c164458e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Autonomous driving test kilometers represent data capability, which is an important criterion for evaluating the value of autonomous driving enterprises.</p><p>Among the same type of enterprises,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Waymo far outpaced other rivals with 32 million kilometres tested (as of September 2020). The test mileage of Baidu's Apollo autonomous travel service as of December 2020 was 7 million kilometers, ranking second. By the first half of 2021, this figure had exceeded 14 million kilometers.</p><p>According to this growth rate and the loosening of regulatory ties, such as testing at night, Baidu's annual test scale reaches at least 14 million kilometers, while Waymo tested 2.3 million kilometers in 2019. It is estimated that Baidu's test mileage will exceed Waymo's in about 2 years.</p><p>In terms of testing qualifications, in the United States, Baidu and Waymo are two of six companies with driverless (L4) licenses, and in China, Baidu is the first and currently the only company with a T4 license. Up to now, Baidu Apollo has obtained a total of 336 test licenses, including 229 manned test licenses.</p><p>In June this year, Waymo announced that it had received $2.5 billion in financing, but did not announce the valuation after this round of financing. Before this round of financing, its valuation had exceeded $30 billion. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Is valuing Apollo at one-third of Waymo's. Qi Su believes that with the narrowing gap between Apollo and Waymo's test data, and the objective impact of Apollo's overtaking in corners under the epidemic, Apollo's total valuation in Robotaxi and exporting technology to car companies is at least $25 billion. You know,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>In February this year, Baidu Apollo was given a separate valuation of $53.9 billion.</p><p>In addition, Baidu also holds a 55% stake in Jidu Auto.</p><p>As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>($64.558 billion), XPeng ($34.169 billion), Ideal ($29.746 billion) have an average market cap of $42.8 billion. As the market value of the three new car-making forces fluctuates greatly after the listing, in Qi Su's view, although Jidu Auto has not disclosed more details, as an industry insider, he conservatively estimates that the valuation of Jidu is set at around $45 billion, and Apollo will get a market value of about $22.5 billion.</p><p>Overall, the overall valuation of Apollo and car manufacturing is around $50 billion.</p><p>Due to the pull of autonomous driving and other businesses, Baidu's non-advertising revenue has grown by more than 50% for three consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in 2021Q2 has exceeded the overall revenue growth rate, reaching 80%, and the revenue proportion has increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 21%. On the conference call after the earnings report, Robin Li said that Baidu Robotaxi could achieve profitability as soon as 2025.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>Previously, the evaluation of Baidu's autonomous driving business was the best representative of vehicle-road collaboration and platform route. It is predicted that it will achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025, of which 4,200 Robotaxi vehicles in intelligent travel business correspond to a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, and 1.57 million pre-installed Zhixing and Zhicabin Zhitu contribute a total revenue of 8.7 billion yuan.</p><p>In fact, Baidu painted a \"Qingming River Map\" of AI travel, AI life, AI industry and AI independent innovation at this World Congress. Qi Su's feeling about the 3-hour live broadcast is that he is curious about how unmanned vehicles will change our lives, but how AI will change the business landscape is more worth looking forward to.</p><p>From Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report, we can see the business progress of Baidu's three-level growth engine. The basic market of mobile ecology has grown steadily, the growth rate of intelligent cloud has reached a record high, and the commercialization progress of autonomous driving and other businesses has accelerated. Qi Su described that Baidu is getting rid of muscle memory, diversifying its income, accompanied by AI business and accelerating the commercialization of Apollo, and the market's judgment on its AI value may shift from prudent attitude to positive.</p>","source":"lsy1598506047654","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深燃</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>No one can give an accurate answer to when L5 driverless vehicles will be mass-produced. However, the car<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Already unveiled.</p><p>On August 18, the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>At the World Congress 2021 \", Baidu showed off the world's first L5 autonomous car robot. \"The main form of future robots is automotive robots,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Cars are becoming more and more like robots, \"which is Baidu's judgment on the future direction of automobile development.</p><p>Travel is the key word of this Baidu World Congress, and autonomous driving is also one of the most noteworthy businesses in Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report recently released. Baidu disclosed that its Apollo ACE intelligent transportation has tens of millions of orders covering more than 20 cities. Robin Li, chairman and CEO of Baidu, also said that Baidu Robotaxi (self-driving taxi service) will be profitable by 2025 at the earliest.</p><p>Some people think that Baidu is targeting the trillion-dollar market behind Robotaxi. IHS, the world's authoritative research consultancy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>A recently released report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% market share.</p><p>Who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track? Does the emergence of \"car robots\" mean that the unmanned version of the online car-hailing war started ahead of schedule? With the commercialization of Baidu's AI business, especially Apollo-related business, is the capital market willing to give Baidu a more positive valuation? This article attempts to answer these questions.</p><p><b>Baidu \"Run Fast\"</b></p><p>What is it like to hit a \"real\" driverless car?</p><p>At the \"Baidu World Conference 2021\", Robin Li took the host Sa Beining to experience it and sat on Baidu Apollo \"car robot\". It has no steering wheel or pedals, and has L5 autonomous driving capability, without the need for human driving.</p><p>According to the official introduction, Apollo car robot knows how to communicate and learn, can analyze the potential needs of users, and actively provide services in various scenarios. The internal and external designs of \"robot\" are very futuristic, with intelligent configurations such as super-large curved screen and intelligent console. Sa Beining described entering the car as if you were in a private cinema.</p><p>In the same space, Li used two photos taken on New York's Fifth Avenue (1900 and 1913) to tell that \"it only took 13 years for cars to replace horse-drawn carriages as the mainstream means of transportation.\" A hundred years later, the number of cars in the Chinese market alone has reached 292 million (as of June 2021), and the number of cars worldwide has exceeded 700 million.</p><p>How many years will it take from the emergence of \"car robots\" to the popularization of unmanned vehicles?</p><p>Baidu now uses a car robot and a travel platform to tell the outside world that commercialization can be faster and the cycle can be shorter.</p><p>On the same day, Baidu also released the unmanned vehicle travel service platform \"Radish (from the transliteration of Robot) Run\", which is equivalent to the brand upgrade of Apollo Go. It continues to introduce unmanned vehicle travel services to the public, and plans to land in 30 cities within three years.</p><p>Nowadays, autonomous driving has gradually become an industry consensus in the second half. According to the IHS Markit report, the total market size of shared mobility in China will reach 2.25 trillion by 2030, with a compound growth rate of between 20%-28%. Among them, Robotaxi will account for 60%, with a scale of 1.3 trillion yuan.</p><p>Essence Securities has measured the market size of domestic Robotaxi with the formula of \"market size = total passenger mileage * penetration rate * unit price\": in 2030, the total domestic passenger mileage is expected to reach 10 trillion kilometers, and the penetration rate of Robotaxi is expected to reach 6%-22% (refer to McKinsey's Outlook of Autonomous Driving Industry under the New Normal). The unit price is 2 yuan/km. On the whole, the travel market brought by Robotaxi is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion-4.4 trillion yuan in 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92eed31529ef484a2b8d766a800f254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"805\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Qi Su, an insider in the industry, commented that obviously, Baidu is aiming at the trillion market space behind Robotaxi, and now it is going to \"run fast\".</p><p>IHS Markit report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% of the market share. Only giant enterprises with deep involvement now can occupy a favorable position in the competition in the next decade. Baidu's advanced layout and leading position in the Internet of Vehicles and ADAS markets will bring important first-mover advantages to Robotaxi competition.</p><p>The report also mentioned that judging from the current technological development trend, the short-term assembly cost of L4 is still the main bottleneck of development. Baidu recently disclosed that its fifth-generation shared unmanned vehicle Apollo Moon currently reaches the L4 standard, and the cost of this vehicle is about one-third of that of similar vehicles in the industry, which is about 480,000 yuan. Robin Li revealed on the 2021Q2 earnings call that when there are 50 million orders per day, the cost of Robotaxi will be 1/5 of what it is now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e95b1a2242f5dd0778c07a434d63203e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Various factors are bound to accelerate the industry's commercialization exploration of Robotaxi and enhance the market space.</p><p><b>To preempt the Robotaxi era, you need three customs clearance cards</b></p><p>Then the question is, who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track.</p><p>In this track, there are now four forces: travel service platforms, technology companies, car factories and autonomous driving start-ups, each of which has its own strengths in technical fields such as algorithms and data. However, unlike other industries, the networked operation of Robotaxi is more complicated. Getting the ticket requires at least three customs clearance cards: technology, travel network and car building.</p><p>Technology, is the first customs clearance card. Only by meeting the requirements of the technical threshold of L4-level autonomous driving, having the ability to remove safety officers and solve the long tail problem can we eliminate the driver's salary (accounting for about 70%), the most important operating cost of online car-hailing at this stage, and the business model can be completely run through.</p><p>At present, the players who are exploring L4 Robotaxi technology are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>, Baidu, as well as AutoX, Pony.ai, WeRide, Yuanrong Qixing, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c514732da345add90a3bdc603a0d93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second customs clearance card is to have enough operational data and market size. Only big platform companies have these two points at the same time.</p><p>The competition between Baidu and Didi in China is the fiercest. On April 19th last year, Baidu officially opened Robotaxi service to all citizens in Changsha, followed closely by Didi, which announced on June 27th that it would launch a large-scale trial operation of Robotaxi in Jiading, Shanghai, which would be open to all the public in Shanghai. From Baidu to Didi, from Guangzhou, Changsha to Shanghai, domestic autonomous driving head enterprises have made efforts one after another, so that domestic Robotaxi will enter the stage of large-scale operation in 2020.</p><p>Guosheng Securities believes that whoever has the strongest shared travel network has a better chance of winning. Didi has 377 million domestic taxi users, an average daily order of 25 million in China, accounting for 81% of the taxi market share, and has the largest after-service market such as charging network in China, and sufficient B-end resources such as car companies and car rental companies. The conclusion is that when the technical difference is not big enough, Didi's moat is the mind of C-end users and the service network of B-end.</p><p>However, in terms of large-scale operation of unmanned vehicle services, Baidu has made faster progress. Up to now, Baidu has covered the largest number of cities, and has conducted Robotaxi tests in more than 27 cities around the world, with the largest fleet size, reaching 500 vehicles.</p><p>Recently, Didi, a traditional shared travel service provider, is also supplying its technical capabilities. In April this year, it released the first five-hour takeover-free driving video in the world, and it is possible to compete with Baidu on Robotaxi service in the future.</p><p>Building a car is the third customs clearance card, and it is also a corner overtaking card. To a certain extent, the scale advantage of the supply side determines the choice of users on the demand side. In the traditional shared travel era, Didi has a great advantage on the user side, which means that in the Robotaxi era, whoever has enough autonomous vehicles on the supply side is on the offensive in the competition.</p><p>In November last year, Didi United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The customized online car-hailing D1 model was launched. As of May this year, Didi D1 has exceeded 1,000 units in Ningbo. In March this year, Baidu announced that it would \"join hands\" with Geely to build a car and set up its car brand Jidu. According to reports, it will take about three years to achieve mass production.</p><p>Guosheng Securities said that future head competitors, such as Baidu and even Huawei, which said it would not do Robotaxi for the time being, own most autonomous vehicles on the market through car building or cooperation with car companies. If they can grasp the supply side and push Robotaxi taxi business in the future, it will not be difficult to overtake Didi.</p><p>In the final analysis, the core of the competition of Robotaxi players is not only the need of three customs clearance cards, but also the overall test of technology, capital and business ecology.</p><p>IHS Markit's view is that Baidu has advantages in traffic ecology and cutting-edge technical capabilities. The former means that Baidu has Baidu Map and mobile ecology to provide the traffic base, while the latter means that in the overall autonomous driving assistance market, with the launch of Baidu Apollo pilot assisted driving AVP and autonomous parking ANP solutions, and the continuous growth of Baidu Apollo ecological partner alliance, it is estimated that the overall capacity and market size of Apollo autonomous driving service will reach about 38% in 2030. With the overall car link penetration rate increasing to 100%, the market share of Xiaodu Assistant Car Edition in the overall market is expected to reach 40% by 2030.</p><p><b>Is Apollo the biggest variable in Baidu's valuation?</b></p><p>For a long time, many brokers have fluctuated greatly in the valuation of Baidu, especially intelligent driving in its frontier business. Questioners are generally bad because of the monetization problem of the industry, while optimistic people compare it to \"Android in the automobile industry\", thinking that it is expected to become the primary scene for AI to be widely implemented in to C, and even commercialized through to B, to G and to C multiple modes. In fact, the commercialization progress and due valuation of Baidu's intelligent driving business continue to change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de2f890256cf8d590c9ae84c164458e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Autonomous driving test kilometers represent data capability, which is an important criterion for evaluating the value of autonomous driving enterprises.</p><p>Among the same type of enterprises,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Waymo far outpaced other rivals with 32 million kilometres tested (as of September 2020). The test mileage of Baidu's Apollo autonomous travel service as of December 2020 was 7 million kilometers, ranking second. By the first half of 2021, this figure had exceeded 14 million kilometers.</p><p>According to this growth rate and the loosening of regulatory ties, such as testing at night, Baidu's annual test scale reaches at least 14 million kilometers, while Waymo tested 2.3 million kilometers in 2019. It is estimated that Baidu's test mileage will exceed Waymo's in about 2 years.</p><p>In terms of testing qualifications, in the United States, Baidu and Waymo are two of six companies with driverless (L4) licenses, and in China, Baidu is the first and currently the only company with a T4 license. Up to now, Baidu Apollo has obtained a total of 336 test licenses, including 229 manned test licenses.</p><p>In June this year, Waymo announced that it had received $2.5 billion in financing, but did not announce the valuation after this round of financing. Before this round of financing, its valuation had exceeded $30 billion. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Is valuing Apollo at one-third of Waymo's. Qi Su believes that with the narrowing gap between Apollo and Waymo's test data, and the objective impact of Apollo's overtaking in corners under the epidemic, Apollo's total valuation in Robotaxi and exporting technology to car companies is at least $25 billion. You know,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>In February this year, Baidu Apollo was given a separate valuation of $53.9 billion.</p><p>In addition, Baidu also holds a 55% stake in Jidu Auto.</p><p>As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>($64.558 billion), XPeng ($34.169 billion), Ideal ($29.746 billion) have an average market cap of $42.8 billion. As the market value of the three new car-making forces fluctuates greatly after the listing, in Qi Su's view, although Jidu Auto has not disclosed more details, as an industry insider, he conservatively estimates that the valuation of Jidu is set at around $45 billion, and Apollo will get a market value of about $22.5 billion.</p><p>Overall, the overall valuation of Apollo and car manufacturing is around $50 billion.</p><p>Due to the pull of autonomous driving and other businesses, Baidu's non-advertising revenue has grown by more than 50% for three consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in 2021Q2 has exceeded the overall revenue growth rate, reaching 80%, and the revenue proportion has increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 21%. On the conference call after the earnings report, Robin Li said that Baidu Robotaxi could achieve profitability as soon as 2025.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>Previously, the evaluation of Baidu's autonomous driving business was the best representative of vehicle-road collaboration and platform route. It is predicted that it will achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025, of which 4,200 Robotaxi vehicles in intelligent travel business correspond to a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, and 1.57 million pre-installed Zhixing and Zhicabin Zhitu contribute a total revenue of 8.7 billion yuan.</p><p>In fact, Baidu painted a \"Qingming River Map\" of AI travel, AI life, AI industry and AI independent innovation at this World Congress. Qi Su's feeling about the 3-hour live broadcast is that he is curious about how unmanned vehicles will change our lives, but how AI will change the business landscape is more worth looking forward to.</p><p>From Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report, we can see the business progress of Baidu's three-level growth engine. The basic market of mobile ecology has grown steadily, the growth rate of intelligent cloud has reached a record high, and the commercialization progress of autonomous driving and other businesses has accelerated. Qi Su described that Baidu is getting rid of muscle memory, diversifying its income, accompanied by AI business and accelerating the commercialization of Apollo, and the market's judgment on its AI value may shift from prudent attitude to positive.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lZEGTdI9OlMwH8bekF5eRg\">深燃</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lZEGTdI9OlMwH8bekF5eRg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168385577","content_text":"L5级无人驾驶车辆什么时候能大规模量产，还没有人能给出准确答案。不过，汽车机器人已经亮相了。\n在8月18日召开的“百度世界大会2021”上，百度展示了全球首款L5级自动驾驶汽车机器人。“未来机器人的主要形态是汽车机器人，智能汽车也越来越像机器人”，这是百度对未来汽车发展方向的判断。\n出行，是这届百度世界大会的关键词，自动驾驶，也是百度日前发布的2021Q2财报中最值得关注的业务之一。百度披露，旗下Apollo ACE智能交通千万订单的覆盖城市超20个。百度董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏还放话，百度Robotaxi（自动驾驶网约出租车服务）最快到2025年实现盈利。\n有观点认为，百度瞄准的是Robotaxi背后的万亿市场。全球权威研究咨询机构IHS Markit近期发布的一份报告显示，未来Robotaxi的主要参与者将集中在2-3家服务供应商，头部服务商或拥有超过40%的市场份额。\n谁握着Robotaxi赛道的门票？“汽车机器人”的出现，是否意味着无人车版的网约车大战提前开始了？伴随着百度AI业务尤其是Apollo相关业务的商业化落地，资本市场愿意给百度更积极的估值吗？本文试图回答这些问题。\n百度“快跑”\n打一辆“真”无人驾驶车是什么体验？\n在“百度世界大会2021”上，李彦宏带主持人撒贝宁体验了一把，坐上了百度Apollo“汽车机器人”。它不设方向盘、踏板，具备L5级自动驾驶能力，无需人类驾驶。\n据官方介绍，Apollo汽车机器人懂交流、会学习，能分析用户潜在需求，在多种场景里主动提供服务。“机器人”的内外部设计都极具未来科技感，拥有超大曲面屏、智能控制台等智能化配置。撒贝宁形容，进入车内仿佛置身私人电影院。\n同一个空间里，李彦宏用拍摄于纽约第五大道的两张照片（1900年和1913年）讲述着，“汽车取代马车成为主流交通工具只用了13年时间”，百年之后，仅中国市场的汽车保有量就达到了2.92亿辆（截至2021年6月），全球汽车保有量更是超过7亿辆。\n从“汽车机器人”横空出世到无人车普及，需要多少个年头呢？\n百度现在用一部汽车机器人、一款出行平台，告诉外界，商业化还可以更快，周期还可以更短。\n当天，百度还发布了无人车出行服务平台“萝卜（源于Robot的音译）快跑”，相当于是Apollo Go的品牌升级，继续向大众推出无人车出行服务，计划3年之内落地30个城市。\n如今自动驾驶进入下半场逐渐成为行业共识。IHS Markit报告显示，到2030年，中国共享出行的总市场规模将达到2.25万亿，复合增长率在20%-28%之间。其中Robotaxi占比将是60%，规模达到1.3万亿。\n安信证券以“市场规模=乘客总里程*渗透率*单价”这一公式测算过国内Robotaxi的市场规模：2030年国内的乘客总里程有望达到10万亿公里，Robotaxi的渗透率有望达到6%-22%（参考麦肯锡《新常态下的自动驾驶行业展望》）。单价在2元/公里，综合来算，2030年Robotaxi带来的出行市场有望达到1.2万亿-4.4万亿元的规模。\n\n业内人士齐肃评价，很显然，百度瞄准的是Robotaxi背后的万亿市场空间，现在是要“快跑”了。\nIHS Markit报告显示，未来Robotaxi的主要参与者将集中在2-3家服务供应商，头部服务商或拥有超过40%的市场份额，只有现在已有深度参与的巨头企业，才可能在未来十年的竞争中占据有利位置。百度在车联网、ADAS市场的提前布局和领先地位将为Robotaxi竞争带来重要先发优势。\n这份报告还提到，从当前的技术发展趋势判断，短期L4的装配成本依然是发展的主要瓶颈。百度最近披露，其推出的第五代共享无人车Apollo Moon目前达到了L4级标准，该车成本是业界同级车辆的三分之一左右，约为48万元。李彦宏在2021Q2财报电话会上透露，当每天有5000万订单时，Robotaxi的成本将会是现在的1/5。\n\n种种因素，势必会加快行业对Robotaxi的商业化探索，并提升市场空间。\n抢占Robotaxi时代，需要三张通关卡\n接下来的问题是，谁握着Robotaxi赛道的门票。\n这个赛道里，现在有出行服务平台、科技公司、车厂、自动驾驶初创公司四方势力，各家在算法、数据等技术领域各有所长。不过，与其他行业不同，Robotaxi的网络化运营更复杂，拿到入场券至少需要技术、出行网络、造车三张通关卡。\n技术，是首张通关卡。达到L4级别自动驾驶技术门槛的要求，有能力去掉安全员，并有能力解决长尾问题，才可以消除现阶段网约车最主要的运营成本司机薪酬（占比约七成），商业模式才能完全跑通。\n当前，进行L4级Robotaxi技术探索的玩家有滴滴、百度，以及AutoX、小马智行、文远知行、元戎启行等。\n\n第二张通关卡是拥有足够的运营数据和市场规模。这两点只有大平台公司才同时具备。\n国内百度和滴滴的角逐最激烈，去年4月19日，百度先在长沙正式向所有市民开放Robotaxi服务，滴滴紧随其后，于6月27日宣布在上海嘉定启动Robotaxi规模化试运营，向所有上海公众开放。从百度到滴滴，从广州、长沙到上海，国内的自动驾驶头部企业相继发力，让国内的Robotaxi在2020年进入规模化运营阶段。\n国盛证券认为，谁有最强的共享出行网络，谁就有更大的胜算。滴滴拥有国内3.77亿打车用户、全国日均订单2500万单、占据了81%打车市场份额，且拥有国内最大的充电网络等后服务市场、充足的车企和租车公司等B端资源。结论是，当技术差别不够大的情况下，滴滴的护城河是C端用户心智和B端服务网络。\n但在规模化运营无人车服务方面，百度进度更快。截止到目前，百度覆盖的城市数量最多，已经在全球超27个城市进行Robotaxi测试，且车队规模最大，达到500辆级别。\n近期，传统共享出行服务商滴滴也在补足技术能力，今年4月发布了国际首个五小时无接管驾驶视频，未来有可能在Robotaxi服务上与百度开展竞争。\n造车，是第三张通关卡，也是弯道超车卡。供给端的规模优势一定程度上决定了需求端用户的选择，传统共享出行时代，滴滴在用户端有较大优势，也就意味着，Robotaxi时代，谁在供给端掌握足够体量的自动驾驶车辆，在竞争中就处于攻势。\n去年11月，滴滴联合比亚迪推出定制网约车D1车型，截至今年5月，滴滴D1在宁波突破1000台。今年3月，百度宣布与吉利“牵手”造车，成立旗下汽车品牌集度，据报道，需要三年左右的时间实现量产。\n国盛证券表示，未来的头部竞争者，如百度、甚至是表示暂不做Robotaxi的华为，通过造车或与车企的合作、拥有了市面上大多数自动驾驶车辆，如果能将供给端把握住，未来力推Robotaxi打车业务，想要超车滴滴并不难。\n说到底，Robotaxi玩家的竞争核心不光是需要三张通关卡，更是对技术、资金、商业生态的全盘考验。\nIHS Markit的观点是，百度在流量生态、前沿技术能力等方面具备优势。前者是指，百度有百度地图、移动生态提供流量基础，后者则是说，在整体自动驾驶辅助市场，随着百度Apollo领航辅助驾驶AVP和自主泊车ANP解决方案推出，以及百度Apollo生态合作伙伴联盟的不断壮大，预计2030年Apollo自动驾驶服务整体搭载量和市场规模可达到38%左右。随着整体车联渗透率提升至100%，小度助手汽车版在整体市场的市占率到2030年有望达到40%。\nApollo成百度估值最大变量？\n相当长一段时间以来，很多券商对百度，尤其是其前沿业务中的智能驾驶，估值波动较大。质疑者普遍是因为行业的货币化问题而唱衰，而看好者将其比作“汽车界的安卓”，认为有望成为AI在to C端广泛落地的首要场景，甚至通过to B、to G、to C多重模式实现商业化。事实上，百度的智能驾驶业务的商业化进展和应有估值，持续发生着变化。\n\n自动驾驶测试公里数代表数据能力，是对自动驾驶企业价值评估的重要标准。\n同类型企业中，谷歌Waymo以3200万公里（截至2020年9月）测试里程远超其他对手。百度Apollo自动驾驶出行服务截至2020年12月的测试里程是700万公里，位列第二，到2021年上半年，这一数据已经超过1400万公里。\n按照这个增速，以及监管层面的松绑，如晚上可以进行测试，百度每年的测试规模至少达到1400万公里，而Waymo在2019年测试了230万公里。估算下来，百度的测试里程2年时间左右就将超过Waymo。\n测试资质方面，在美国，百度和Waymo是六家拥有无人驾驶（L4）许可证企业中的两家，在国内，百度是首个也是目前唯一一个拥有T4牌照的企业。截至目前，百度Apollo获得测试牌照总计336张，其中载人测试牌照229张。\n今年6月，Waymo宣布获得25亿美元的融资，并未公布本轮融资后的估值，在此轮融资前，其估值就已超300亿美元。此前瑞银是按Waymo的三分之一对Apollo进行估值。齐肃认为，伴随Apollo与Waymo的测试数据差距越拉约小，以及在疫情之下Apollo弯道超车的客观影响，Apollo在Robotaxi以及向车企输出技术方面的总估值至少是250亿美元。要知道，中金公司在今年2月份曾给予百度Apollo 539亿美元的单独估值。\n另外，百度还持有集度汽车55%的股份。\n截至发稿，蔚来（645.58亿美元）、小鹏（341.69亿美元）、理想（297.46亿美元）的平均市值为428亿美元。由于造车新势力三家上市后的市值起伏较大，在齐肃看来，虽然集度汽车尚未披露更多细节，但他作为业内人士，保守估计将集度的估值定在450亿美元上下，Apollo将分得225亿美元左右的市值。\n总体来看，Apollo及造车的整体估值在500亿美元上下。\n由于自动驾驶等业务的拉动，百度非广告收入连续三个季度增速超过50%，2021Q2的增速更是超过整体营收增速，达到80%，营收占比从去年同期的15.8%提升到21%。在财报后的电话会议上，李彦宏放话，百度Robotaxi最快在2025年实现盈利。\n天风证券此前对百度自动驾驶业务的评价是，车路协同和平台路线的最佳代表，预判2025年将实现100亿元收入，其中智能出行业务的4200辆Robotaxi对应收入14亿元，157万前装智行与智舱智图共贡献收入87亿元。\n事实上，百度在本届世界大会上描绘的是一幅AI出行、AI生活、AI产业、AI自主创新的“清明上河图”。齐肃对3小时直播的观后感是，好奇无人车将怎样改变我们的生活，但AI将怎样改变商业格局，更值得期待。\n从百度2021Q2财报来看百度三级增长引擎的业务进展，移动生态基本盘稳健增长，智能云增速创新高，自动驾驶等业务商业化进展加速。齐肃形容，百度正在摆脱肌肉记忆，收入多元化、伴随AI业务、Apollo商业化落地加速，市场对其AI价值的判断或将从态度审慎转向积极。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"09888":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831498980,"gmtCreate":1629338959540,"gmtModify":1676530007437,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831498980","repostId":"1160720538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160720538","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"最有深度的半导体新媒体，实讯、专业、原创、深度，30万半导体精英关注！专注观察全球半导体最新资讯、技术前沿、发展趋势。《摩尔精英》《中国集成电路》共同出品，欢迎订阅摩尔旗下公众号：摩尔精英、摩尔芯闻、摩尔App","home_visible":1,"media_name":"半导体行业观察","id":"1099700132","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868"},"pubTimestamp":1629337285,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160720538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 09:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TSMC reaches the top again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160720538","media":"半导体行业观察","summary":"本周，台积电 (TSMC) 市值再次超过腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。\n根据 Refinitiv Eikon 截至8月18日上午的数据，台积电在亚洲公司中以超过 5380 亿美元的市值位居榜首。腾讯以","content":"<p>This week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) once again surpassed Tencent in market capitalization to become the most valuable company in Asia.</p><p>TSMC topped the list of Asian companies with a market capitalization of more than $538 billion, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of the morning of August 18. Tencent is in second place with a market capitalization of more than $536 billion.</p><p>Just at the beginning of this month, on August 3rd, TSMC's market value reached $552 billion, historically surpassing Tencent to become the highest market value company in Asia. However, after that, Tencent's market value rebounded and then fell back, until this week, when TSMC overtook Tencent again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490c4f3e714b0975b395afab27887c5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The primary reason for achieving such brilliant results is, of course, TSMC's super foundry technology strength and market share. In addition, recently, a series of anti-monopoly measures by the Chinese government have had a great impact on leading Internet companies such as Tencent in mainland China, objectively helping TSMC.</p><p>Separately, TSMC, a wafer foundry leader, has benefited from a global semiconductor shortage due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and surging demand in industries such as automotive and data centers.</p><p>The above reflects TSMC's position in the Asian market. For this much-watched semiconductor company, there are two important time points for its position in the global semiconductor industry to be established in the past year or so.</p><p>The first appeared on July 20, 2020, when the company reached a market capitalization of $313 billion, surpassing Samsung's $261 billion and Nvidia's $257 billion to become the world's largest semiconductor company.</p><p>The second point in time occurred on April 27th this year, when TSMC's market value reached $558 billion, more than double that of Intel ($239 billion).</p><p>In the past 20 years, TSMC has deeply cultivated technology, steadily and steadily, and its market value has been steadily increasing while constantly winning customers. After years of accumulation, it has beared fruitful fruits in the past five years. Not only is it the leader in technology and market share, but its market value has soared like a rocket in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f6ab2ab8edade54728989f5dda2a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above figure, after entering 2020, TSMC's market value has risen sharply. So, in the past year or so, what kind of development is the company in? Let's take a look at process technology, market influence, investment and production expansion, revenue and other aspects.</p><p>Advanced processes have become TSMC's calling card, specifically 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm.</p><p>In terms of 7nm, TSMC has obtained more than 200 NTOs at this node, and most of them have been put into mass production. The company has produced more than 1 billion 7nm chips. In the 7nm era, TSMC also took the lead in introducing the 7nm + process using EUV technology. On the basis of 7nm, the company launched the 6nm process. One of the main features of this platform is that it is compatible with the 7nm process platform, so that customers can easily port the 7nm design to 6nm.</p><p>In 2020, TSMC achieved mass production of 5nm, which increased the speed of the new process by 15% and reduced power consumption by 30% compared to 7nm, while the logic density was 1.8 times that of the former. In terms of yield, the new process is also progressing very smoothly. At the same time, the company also introduced an enhanced version of the N5P process, which increases the speed of transistors by 5% and reduces power consumption by 10%, which will bring new opportunities for HPC.</p><p>In addition, TSMC has also introduced the N4 process based on the N5 platform, which has improved speed, power consumption and density. Its biggest advantage also lies in its compatibility with N5. Products designed using 5nm process can be easily transferred to 4nm platform. This can also ensure that TSMC customers can get better benefits from their investment in every generation. Trial production of the N4 will be in the fourth quarter of 2021, while mass production will be achieved in 2022.</p><p>At present, TSMC is preparing for the mass production of 3nm process technology. In this generation of technology, TSMC will continue to adopt FinFET. Compared with 5nm, TSMC's 3nm speed will be increased by 10% to 15%, power consumption will be increased by 25% to 30%, logic density will be 1.7 times that of the former, SRAM density will also be increased by 20%, and even analog density will be increased by 10%. According to TSMC's plan, the 3nm process will go into mass production in the second half of 2022.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC took the lead in starting the research and development of 2nm process technology. The corresponding technology development center and chip production plant are mainly located in Hsinchu, Taiwan Province. At the same time, four ultra-large wafer fabs are planned, mainly for the research and development and production of 2nm and more advanced processes.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC set up a 2nm project research and development team to find a feasible path for development. After considering many conditions such as cost, equipment compatibility, technology maturity and performance performance, it is decided to adopt MBCFET architecture based on Gate-all-around (GAA) process to solve the physical limit problem of current-controlled leakage caused by FinFET process shrinking. MBCFET and FinFET have the same idea, except that the gate of GAA is wrapped on all sides of the channel, and the source and drain are no longer in contact with the substrate.</p><p>According to the 2nm process index given by TSMC, Metal Track (Metal cell height) is maintained at 5x as 3nm, while Gate Pitch (transistor Gate Pitch) is reduced to 30nm and Metal Pitch (Metal Pitch) is reduced to 20nm, which is 23% smaller than 3nm.</p><p>According to the plan, TSMC is expected to enter the trial production phase of the 2nm process in mid-2023, and start mass production one year later. In September 2020, according to media reports in Taiwan Province, TSMC's 2nm process made a major breakthrough, and its R&D progress was ahead of schedule. The industry is optimistic that its risk trial production yield in the second half of 2023 can reach 90%.</p><p>At present, in addition to fab construction, the work on TSMC's 2nm talent placement and cultivation is also going on in an orderly manner. It is reported that the company has promoted four employees in the past few months. These initiatives are to allow these employees to devote more energy to the research and development of 2nm manufacturing processes. It is reported that Geoffrey Yeap is now the senior director of the R&D department of 2nm process platform. This location did not exist before this. When the company began to focus on the 2nm process, it was important to create this location. TSMC has high academic requirements for managers. Both newly promoted Deputy General Managers have Ph.D.</p><p>TSMC is not only dominant in advanced manufacturing processes, but also among the best in mature and special manufacturing processes. It can provide MEMS, image sensors, embedded NVM, RF, analog, high voltage and BCD power ICs and other process technologies. On the basis of basic logic technology, TSMC will add advanced ULL&SRAM, RF&Analog and eNVM technologies to achieve low power consumption and the improvement of Analog technology.</p><p>In order to achieve low power consumption, TSMC can provide 0.18um eLL, 90nm ULP, 55ULP and other processes. At the same time, the company has also introduced the latest FinFET technology-N12E, which can create high-efficiency and high-energy products.</p><p>TSMC is continuing its technology in sensors, Stacking and ASICs (ISPs). Sensor is from N65BSI to N65BSI, Stacking is from BSI to Advanced Pixel Level Stack, and ASIC (ISP) is from N90LP to N65LP.</p><p>Since the first quarter of this year, TSMC has continued to occupy a leading position among global wafer foundry manufacturers. According to TrendForce statistics, TSMC's revenue in the first quarter reached 12.90 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The main revenue contribution came from 7nm process, and its major customers included AMD, MediaTek and Qualcomm. The order volume of these companies continued to increase, which made TSMC's revenue from 7nm process increase by 23% year-on-year in this quarter.</p><p>In terms of advanced process capacity of 12-inch wafers, TSMC is the dominant one. In the past year, AMD has the fastest growing demand for its capacity, especially 7nm orders. As AMD's ZEN 2 and the upcoming ZEN 3 architecture CPUs are based on 7nm process, the company's growth momentum in the CPU market is very rapid. In addition, AMD's GPU is also produced by TSMC, and it is still mainly based on 7nm process. These make TSMC's related production capacity more and more tight.</p><p>According to the news from the supply chain, because MediaTek can't continue to supply mobile phone chips to Huawei, the former 7nm process chips that were originally to be cast in TSMC have been suspended, thus releasing about 13,000 pieces of 12-inch wafer foundry capacity, and this gap is likely to be filled by AMD. The market expects that the new generation of gaming machines from Sony and Microsoft will be out of stock by mid-2021. In this way, AMD's customized CPU and GPU \"money\" for these two customers is optimistic.</p><p>TSMC's 16nm and 12nm processes benefited from strong demand for MediaTek's 5G RF transceivers and Bitmain mining machine chips, with revenue increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year.</p><p>However, 5nm, the most advanced process that has been mass-produced, has seen a decline in revenue due to the impact of Apple, the largest customer, in the off-season of production.</p><p>TSMC announced that its capital expenditure in 2021 will increase from the previously estimated $25-28 billion to $30 billion, of which more than 80% will be used for advanced process investment, while 12-inch wafers are used in 7nm, 5nm, 3nm and 2nm process production lines.</p><p>Not long ago, TSMC also announced that it would invest USD 100 billion to expand the fab in three years, and confirmed that it would invest USD 2.887 billion to expand the 28nm process capacity of Nanjing factory, increasing the monthly output of 40,000 wafers, mainly for the production of automotive chips.</p><p>TSMC pointed out that at present, there is no dust room space in wafer fabs in Taiwan Province, and only Nanjing factory has ready-made space available, which can directly set up production lines, which is conducive to the rapid formation of production capacity. According to the plan, the 28nm process capacity of TSMC's Nanjing plant will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022, reaching the full-load capacity target of 40,000 wafers/month in mid-2023. At present, TSMC's Nanjing factory mainly produces 16nm chips, with a monthly production capacity of about 20,000 wafers.</p><p>EUV lithography is an important part of TSMC's lead in 5nm and more advanced processes. In recent years, the company has continuously purchased EUV equipment to maintain its advantage in advanced process capacity. TSMC held a technical forum a few days ago, pointing out that the cumulative installed capacity of its EUV equipment has accounted for 50% of the global total by 2020. By 2020, the wafers produced by TSMC's EUV technology will account for 65% of the global EUV lithography wafers. As the process advances to 5nm, the EUV mask layer for each wafer is greatly increased. TSMC estimates that the EUV mask production capacity in 2021 will be 20 times that in 2019.</p><p>In terms of 3nm, the usage of EUV will be increased, the performance will be increased by 10-15% compared with 5nm, the power consumption will be reduced by 25-30%, the logic density will be increased by 1.7 times, the SRAM density will be increased by 1.2 times, and the analog density will be increased by 1.1 times.</p><p>With the above state-of-the-art process fabs gradually completing construction and putting into mass production in the next 1~3 years, and the first phase of the 12-inch plant in Arizona, USA, entering mass production after 2024, the number of wafers adopting TSMC's EUV technology will increase rapidly, and its investment in EUV equipment will be increasing.</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, TSMC's revenue was US$13.29 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 28%, and TSMC's revenue was NT$372.15 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and its gross profit margin was 50%, representing a quarterly decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, while its net profit after tax was NT$134.36 billion, representing a quarterly decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.</p><p>In the first half of the year, TSMC's revenue was US$26.208 billion, with revenue of NT$ 734.555 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, gross profit margin of 51.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and net profit after tax was NT$ 274.049 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.</p><p>It can be seen that in the latest quarter, TSMC's profit still showed a growth trend year-on-year, and decreased from the previous month, mainly due to the alternating influence of off-season and peak season. In terms of gross profit margin, TSMC has always been the highest in the industry, and the year-on-year and month-on-month decline this quarter does not affect its outstanding performance of revenue and profit. The reason for the decline has a lot to do with its cost pressure, because the company has invested heavily in 5nm and 3nm processes, and it is difficult to show a direct relationship between return and investment in the short term; In addition, losing Huawei HiSilicon, a high-quality big customer with the most advanced process, will definitely have an impact on its profit margin in 7nm and 5nm; Furthermore, in the face of the general price increase in the industry, TSMC has made little change to the original customer contract, which will also have an impact on the gross profit margin to a certain extent.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, TSMC expects that its revenue in August and September will rebound month by month. It is expected that its revenue in September will hit a record high in a single month, and its revenue in the third quarter will reach the upper limit of its performance outlook. The gross profit margin and operating profit rate are also expected to be close to the high standard of financial forecast, while its quarterly revenue and profit will continue to hit a record high simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, due to the heavy shipment of Apple's new A15 and M2 processors, the 5nm utilization rate reached full load, and the operating performance is worth looking forward to.</p><p>In the second half of the year, TSMC entered the traditional peak season, and its growth momentum came from 5nm new orders entering mass production one after another. Among them, Apple M1X and the subsequent M2 will be mass-produced at 5nm in the second half of the year. The A15 application processor equipped with iPhone 13 will be mass-produced with TSMC's enhanced version of 5nm in June, and the volume of films will be increased month by month to the fourth quarter in the second half of the year.</p><p>In addition, TSMC's 5G mobile phone chips received strong orders in the second half of the year. Qualcomm used TSMC's 6nm mass-produced new 5G mobile phone chips to be shipped in the third quarter, and three 5G mobile phone chips will be expanded to use TSMC's 7nm or 6nm process. The new generation Snapdragon 895+, which will be launched early next year, will be mass-produced by TSMC 5nm in the fourth quarter. As for MediaTek's new generation Tianji 2000 series, it will also introduce 5nm mass-production in the second half of the year.</p><p>Under the combined effect of technology, influence, market demand and other factors, TSMC's revenue and market value are rising steadily, and the market expectation is still upward. It is likely that one or more records will be broken again within the next year. The pace of Samsung and Intel catching up is getting heavier.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC reaches the top again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC reaches the top again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700132\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">半导体行业观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-19 09:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) once again surpassed Tencent in market capitalization to become the most valuable company in Asia.</p><p>TSMC topped the list of Asian companies with a market capitalization of more than $538 billion, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of the morning of August 18. Tencent is in second place with a market capitalization of more than $536 billion.</p><p>Just at the beginning of this month, on August 3rd, TSMC's market value reached $552 billion, historically surpassing Tencent to become the highest market value company in Asia. However, after that, Tencent's market value rebounded and then fell back, until this week, when TSMC overtook Tencent again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490c4f3e714b0975b395afab27887c5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The primary reason for achieving such brilliant results is, of course, TSMC's super foundry technology strength and market share. In addition, recently, a series of anti-monopoly measures by the Chinese government have had a great impact on leading Internet companies such as Tencent in mainland China, objectively helping TSMC.</p><p>Separately, TSMC, a wafer foundry leader, has benefited from a global semiconductor shortage due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and surging demand in industries such as automotive and data centers.</p><p>The above reflects TSMC's position in the Asian market. For this much-watched semiconductor company, there are two important time points for its position in the global semiconductor industry to be established in the past year or so.</p><p>The first appeared on July 20, 2020, when the company reached a market capitalization of $313 billion, surpassing Samsung's $261 billion and Nvidia's $257 billion to become the world's largest semiconductor company.</p><p>The second point in time occurred on April 27th this year, when TSMC's market value reached $558 billion, more than double that of Intel ($239 billion).</p><p>In the past 20 years, TSMC has deeply cultivated technology, steadily and steadily, and its market value has been steadily increasing while constantly winning customers. After years of accumulation, it has beared fruitful fruits in the past five years. Not only is it the leader in technology and market share, but its market value has soared like a rocket in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f6ab2ab8edade54728989f5dda2a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above figure, after entering 2020, TSMC's market value has risen sharply. So, in the past year or so, what kind of development is the company in? Let's take a look at process technology, market influence, investment and production expansion, revenue and other aspects.</p><p>Advanced processes have become TSMC's calling card, specifically 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm.</p><p>In terms of 7nm, TSMC has obtained more than 200 NTOs at this node, and most of them have been put into mass production. The company has produced more than 1 billion 7nm chips. In the 7nm era, TSMC also took the lead in introducing the 7nm + process using EUV technology. On the basis of 7nm, the company launched the 6nm process. One of the main features of this platform is that it is compatible with the 7nm process platform, so that customers can easily port the 7nm design to 6nm.</p><p>In 2020, TSMC achieved mass production of 5nm, which increased the speed of the new process by 15% and reduced power consumption by 30% compared to 7nm, while the logic density was 1.8 times that of the former. In terms of yield, the new process is also progressing very smoothly. At the same time, the company also introduced an enhanced version of the N5P process, which increases the speed of transistors by 5% and reduces power consumption by 10%, which will bring new opportunities for HPC.</p><p>In addition, TSMC has also introduced the N4 process based on the N5 platform, which has improved speed, power consumption and density. Its biggest advantage also lies in its compatibility with N5. Products designed using 5nm process can be easily transferred to 4nm platform. This can also ensure that TSMC customers can get better benefits from their investment in every generation. Trial production of the N4 will be in the fourth quarter of 2021, while mass production will be achieved in 2022.</p><p>At present, TSMC is preparing for the mass production of 3nm process technology. In this generation of technology, TSMC will continue to adopt FinFET. Compared with 5nm, TSMC's 3nm speed will be increased by 10% to 15%, power consumption will be increased by 25% to 30%, logic density will be 1.7 times that of the former, SRAM density will also be increased by 20%, and even analog density will be increased by 10%. According to TSMC's plan, the 3nm process will go into mass production in the second half of 2022.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC took the lead in starting the research and development of 2nm process technology. The corresponding technology development center and chip production plant are mainly located in Hsinchu, Taiwan Province. At the same time, four ultra-large wafer fabs are planned, mainly for the research and development and production of 2nm and more advanced processes.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC set up a 2nm project research and development team to find a feasible path for development. After considering many conditions such as cost, equipment compatibility, technology maturity and performance performance, it is decided to adopt MBCFET architecture based on Gate-all-around (GAA) process to solve the physical limit problem of current-controlled leakage caused by FinFET process shrinking. MBCFET and FinFET have the same idea, except that the gate of GAA is wrapped on all sides of the channel, and the source and drain are no longer in contact with the substrate.</p><p>According to the 2nm process index given by TSMC, Metal Track (Metal cell height) is maintained at 5x as 3nm, while Gate Pitch (transistor Gate Pitch) is reduced to 30nm and Metal Pitch (Metal Pitch) is reduced to 20nm, which is 23% smaller than 3nm.</p><p>According to the plan, TSMC is expected to enter the trial production phase of the 2nm process in mid-2023, and start mass production one year later. In September 2020, according to media reports in Taiwan Province, TSMC's 2nm process made a major breakthrough, and its R&D progress was ahead of schedule. The industry is optimistic that its risk trial production yield in the second half of 2023 can reach 90%.</p><p>At present, in addition to fab construction, the work on TSMC's 2nm talent placement and cultivation is also going on in an orderly manner. It is reported that the company has promoted four employees in the past few months. These initiatives are to allow these employees to devote more energy to the research and development of 2nm manufacturing processes. It is reported that Geoffrey Yeap is now the senior director of the R&D department of 2nm process platform. This location did not exist before this. When the company began to focus on the 2nm process, it was important to create this location. TSMC has high academic requirements for managers. Both newly promoted Deputy General Managers have Ph.D.</p><p>TSMC is not only dominant in advanced manufacturing processes, but also among the best in mature and special manufacturing processes. It can provide MEMS, image sensors, embedded NVM, RF, analog, high voltage and BCD power ICs and other process technologies. On the basis of basic logic technology, TSMC will add advanced ULL&SRAM, RF&Analog and eNVM technologies to achieve low power consumption and the improvement of Analog technology.</p><p>In order to achieve low power consumption, TSMC can provide 0.18um eLL, 90nm ULP, 55ULP and other processes. At the same time, the company has also introduced the latest FinFET technology-N12E, which can create high-efficiency and high-energy products.</p><p>TSMC is continuing its technology in sensors, Stacking and ASICs (ISPs). Sensor is from N65BSI to N65BSI, Stacking is from BSI to Advanced Pixel Level Stack, and ASIC (ISP) is from N90LP to N65LP.</p><p>Since the first quarter of this year, TSMC has continued to occupy a leading position among global wafer foundry manufacturers. According to TrendForce statistics, TSMC's revenue in the first quarter reached 12.90 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The main revenue contribution came from 7nm process, and its major customers included AMD, MediaTek and Qualcomm. The order volume of these companies continued to increase, which made TSMC's revenue from 7nm process increase by 23% year-on-year in this quarter.</p><p>In terms of advanced process capacity of 12-inch wafers, TSMC is the dominant one. In the past year, AMD has the fastest growing demand for its capacity, especially 7nm orders. As AMD's ZEN 2 and the upcoming ZEN 3 architecture CPUs are based on 7nm process, the company's growth momentum in the CPU market is very rapid. In addition, AMD's GPU is also produced by TSMC, and it is still mainly based on 7nm process. These make TSMC's related production capacity more and more tight.</p><p>According to the news from the supply chain, because MediaTek can't continue to supply mobile phone chips to Huawei, the former 7nm process chips that were originally to be cast in TSMC have been suspended, thus releasing about 13,000 pieces of 12-inch wafer foundry capacity, and this gap is likely to be filled by AMD. The market expects that the new generation of gaming machines from Sony and Microsoft will be out of stock by mid-2021. In this way, AMD's customized CPU and GPU \"money\" for these two customers is optimistic.</p><p>TSMC's 16nm and 12nm processes benefited from strong demand for MediaTek's 5G RF transceivers and Bitmain mining machine chips, with revenue increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year.</p><p>However, 5nm, the most advanced process that has been mass-produced, has seen a decline in revenue due to the impact of Apple, the largest customer, in the off-season of production.</p><p>TSMC announced that its capital expenditure in 2021 will increase from the previously estimated $25-28 billion to $30 billion, of which more than 80% will be used for advanced process investment, while 12-inch wafers are used in 7nm, 5nm, 3nm and 2nm process production lines.</p><p>Not long ago, TSMC also announced that it would invest USD 100 billion to expand the fab in three years, and confirmed that it would invest USD 2.887 billion to expand the 28nm process capacity of Nanjing factory, increasing the monthly output of 40,000 wafers, mainly for the production of automotive chips.</p><p>TSMC pointed out that at present, there is no dust room space in wafer fabs in Taiwan Province, and only Nanjing factory has ready-made space available, which can directly set up production lines, which is conducive to the rapid formation of production capacity. According to the plan, the 28nm process capacity of TSMC's Nanjing plant will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022, reaching the full-load capacity target of 40,000 wafers/month in mid-2023. At present, TSMC's Nanjing factory mainly produces 16nm chips, with a monthly production capacity of about 20,000 wafers.</p><p>EUV lithography is an important part of TSMC's lead in 5nm and more advanced processes. In recent years, the company has continuously purchased EUV equipment to maintain its advantage in advanced process capacity. TSMC held a technical forum a few days ago, pointing out that the cumulative installed capacity of its EUV equipment has accounted for 50% of the global total by 2020. By 2020, the wafers produced by TSMC's EUV technology will account for 65% of the global EUV lithography wafers. As the process advances to 5nm, the EUV mask layer for each wafer is greatly increased. TSMC estimates that the EUV mask production capacity in 2021 will be 20 times that in 2019.</p><p>In terms of 3nm, the usage of EUV will be increased, the performance will be increased by 10-15% compared with 5nm, the power consumption will be reduced by 25-30%, the logic density will be increased by 1.7 times, the SRAM density will be increased by 1.2 times, and the analog density will be increased by 1.1 times.</p><p>With the above state-of-the-art process fabs gradually completing construction and putting into mass production in the next 1~3 years, and the first phase of the 12-inch plant in Arizona, USA, entering mass production after 2024, the number of wafers adopting TSMC's EUV technology will increase rapidly, and its investment in EUV equipment will be increasing.</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, TSMC's revenue was US$13.29 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 28%, and TSMC's revenue was NT$372.15 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and its gross profit margin was 50%, representing a quarterly decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, while its net profit after tax was NT$134.36 billion, representing a quarterly decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.</p><p>In the first half of the year, TSMC's revenue was US$26.208 billion, with revenue of NT$ 734.555 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, gross profit margin of 51.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and net profit after tax was NT$ 274.049 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.</p><p>It can be seen that in the latest quarter, TSMC's profit still showed a growth trend year-on-year, and decreased from the previous month, mainly due to the alternating influence of off-season and peak season. In terms of gross profit margin, TSMC has always been the highest in the industry, and the year-on-year and month-on-month decline this quarter does not affect its outstanding performance of revenue and profit. The reason for the decline has a lot to do with its cost pressure, because the company has invested heavily in 5nm and 3nm processes, and it is difficult to show a direct relationship between return and investment in the short term; In addition, losing Huawei HiSilicon, a high-quality big customer with the most advanced process, will definitely have an impact on its profit margin in 7nm and 5nm; Furthermore, in the face of the general price increase in the industry, TSMC has made little change to the original customer contract, which will also have an impact on the gross profit margin to a certain extent.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, TSMC expects that its revenue in August and September will rebound month by month. It is expected that its revenue in September will hit a record high in a single month, and its revenue in the third quarter will reach the upper limit of its performance outlook. The gross profit margin and operating profit rate are also expected to be close to the high standard of financial forecast, while its quarterly revenue and profit will continue to hit a record high simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, due to the heavy shipment of Apple's new A15 and M2 processors, the 5nm utilization rate reached full load, and the operating performance is worth looking forward to.</p><p>In the second half of the year, TSMC entered the traditional peak season, and its growth momentum came from 5nm new orders entering mass production one after another. Among them, Apple M1X and the subsequent M2 will be mass-produced at 5nm in the second half of the year. The A15 application processor equipped with iPhone 13 will be mass-produced with TSMC's enhanced version of 5nm in June, and the volume of films will be increased month by month to the fourth quarter in the second half of the year.</p><p>In addition, TSMC's 5G mobile phone chips received strong orders in the second half of the year. Qualcomm used TSMC's 6nm mass-produced new 5G mobile phone chips to be shipped in the third quarter, and three 5G mobile phone chips will be expanded to use TSMC's 7nm or 6nm process. The new generation Snapdragon 895+, which will be launched early next year, will be mass-produced by TSMC 5nm in the fourth quarter. As for MediaTek's new generation Tianji 2000 series, it will also introduce 5nm mass-production in the second half of the year.</p><p>Under the combined effect of technology, influence, market demand and other factors, TSMC's revenue and market value are rising steadily, and the market expectation is still upward. It is likely that one or more records will be broken again within the next year. The pace of Samsung and Intel catching up is getting heavier.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","TSM":"台积电","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160720538","content_text":"本周，台积电 (TSMC) 市值再次超过腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。\n根据 Refinitiv Eikon 截至8月18日上午的数据，台积电在亚洲公司中以超过 5380 亿美元的市值位居榜首。腾讯以超过 5360 亿美元的市值位居第二。\n就在本月初的8月3日，台积电市值达到5520亿美元，历史性地超过了腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。不过，在那之后，腾讯的市值反弹，然后又回落，直到本周，台积电再一次超越了腾讯。\n\n能够取得如此亮眼的成绩，首要原因当然是台积电超强的晶圆代工技术实力及其市场占有率。此外，最近中国政府一系列反垄断措施，对中国大陆的腾讯等互联网头部企业影响较大，客观上帮助了台积电。\n另外，由于疫情导致供应链中断以及汽车和数据中心等行业的需求激增，全球半导体短缺，作为晶圆代工厂龙头的台积电受益于此。\n以上体现的是台积电在亚洲市场的地位，而对于这家备受关注的半导体企业来讲，在过去一年多的时间内，其在全球半导体业地位的确立，还有两个重要的时间点。\n第一个出现在2020年7月20日，当时，该公司市值达到3130亿美元，超过了三星的2610 亿美元和英伟达的2570亿美元，成为全球最大的半导体公司。\n第二个时间点出现在今年4月27日，台积电的市值达到5580亿美元，是英特尔的（2390亿美元）两倍多。\n在过去的20年里，台积电深耕技术，稳扎稳打，在不断赢得客户的情况下，市值一直稳步提升。经过多年的积累，在最近5年结出了丰硕的果实，不但工艺技术和市占率领袖群伦，其市值更是在近两年内如火箭般窜升。\n\n从上图可以看出，进入2020年以后，台积电的市值陡然上升。那么，在过去的这一年多时间内，该公司处在怎样一个发展状态呢？下面从制程工艺技术、市场影响力、投资扩产、营收等各方面看一下。\n先进制程已成为台积电的名片，特别是7nm、5nm、3nm和2nm。\n7nm方面，台积电已经在这个节点上获得了超过200个NTO，且大多投入量产。该公司已经生产了超过10亿颗7nm芯片。在7nm时代，台积电还率先推出了使用EUV技术的7nm+工艺。在7nm基础上，该公司推出了6nm工艺，这个平台的一个主要特点是与7nm工艺平台兼容，这样，客户很容易把7nm的设计移植到6nm。\n2020年，台积电实现了5nm的量产，与7nm相比，新工艺的速度提升了15%，功耗降低了30%，而逻辑密度则是前者的1.8倍。在良率方面，新工艺的进展也非常顺利。与此同时，该公司还推出了增强版的N5P工艺制程，晶体管的速度提升了5%，功耗降低了10%，这将给HPC带来新的机会。\n此外，台积电还基于N5平台推出了N4工艺，其速度、功耗和密度都有了改善。其最大的优势同样是在于其与N5的兼容，使用5nm工艺设计的产品能够轻易地转移到4nm的平台上。这也能保证台积电客户在每一代的投资，都能获得更好的效益。N4试产将在2021年第四季度，而量产将会在2022年实现。\n目前，台积电正在为3nm制程工艺量产做着准备，在这代工艺上，台积电会继续采用FinFET。与5nm相比，台积电3nm的速度将提升10%到15%，功耗将提升25%到30%，逻辑密度将是前者的1.7倍，SRAM密度也将能提升20%，就连模拟密度也提升了10%。根据台积电规划，3nm工艺将在2022年下半年进行量产。\n2019年，台积电率先开始了2nm制程技术的研发工作。相应的技术开发的中心和芯片生产工厂主要设在台湾地区的新竹，同时还规划了4个超大型晶圆厂，主要用于2nm及更先进制程的研发和生产。\n台积电2019年成立了2nm专案研发团队，寻找可行路径进行开发。在考量成本、设备相容、技术成熟及效能表现等多项条件之后，决定采用以环绕闸极（Gate-all-around，GAA）制程为基础的MBCFET架构，解决FinFET因制程微缩产生电流控制漏电的物理极限问题。MBCFET和FinFET有相同的理念，不同之处在于GAA的栅极对沟道的四面包裹，源极和漏极不再和基底接触。\n按照台积电给出的2nm工艺指标，Metal Track(金属单元高度)和3nm一样维持在5x，同时Gate Pitch(晶体管栅极间距)缩小到30nm，Metal Pitch(金属间距)缩小到20nm，相比于3nm都小了23%。\n按照规划，台积电有望在 2023 年中期进入 2nm 工艺试生产阶段，并于一年后开始批量生产。2020年9月，据台湾地区媒体报道，台积电2nm工艺取得重大突破，研发进度超前，业界看好其2023年下半年风险试产良率就可以达到90%。\n目前，除了晶圆厂建设、台积电2nm人才安排和培育方面的工作也正在有条不紊地进行着，据报道，该公司在过去几个月提拔了4名员工。这些举措是为了让这些员工有更多的精力投入到2nm制造工艺的研究和开发当中。据悉，Geoffrey Yeap现在是2nm制程平台研发部的高级总监。这个位置在此之前是不存在的。当该公司开始专注于2nm制程时，创造这个位置是很重要的。台积电对管理人员的学术要求很高。两位新提拔的副总经理都有博士学位。\n台积电不仅在先进制程方面处于霸主地位，在成熟和特殊制程领域同样名列前茅，可以提供MEMS、图像传感器、嵌入式NVM，RF、模拟、高电压和BCD功率IC等制程工艺。台积电在基本的逻辑技术基础上，会加上先进的ULL&SRAM、RF&Analog及eNVM技术，实现低功耗以及模拟技术的提升。\n为了实现低功耗，台积电可提供0.18um eLL、90nm ULP、55ULP等制程，同时，该公司还推出了最新的FinFET技术-N12e，可以打造高效高能的产品。\n台积电在Sensor，Stacking和ASIC（ISP）方面都在延续自己的技术。Sensor方面从N65BSI 一直到N65BSI，Stacking方面，则是从BSI到Advanced Pixel Level Stack，ASIC（ISP）则是从N90LP到N65LP。\n今年第一季度以来，台积电继续在全球晶圆代工厂商中占据龙头位置，据TrendForce统计，台积电第一季度营收达到129.0亿美元，同比增长2%，主要营收贡献来自7nm制程，大客户包括AMD、联发科和高通，这几家的订单量持增长，使台积电在该季度7nm工艺营收同比增长了23%。\n在12英寸晶圆先进制程产能方面，台积电一家独大，而近一年，对其产能需求增长最快的非AMD莫属了，特别是7nm订单，由于AMD的ZEN 2 和即将推出的ZEN 3架构CPU都是基于7nm制程的，而该公司在CPU市场的增长势头非常猛。另外，AMD的GPU也由台积电代工生产，且依然是以7nm制程为主。这些使得台积电相关产能越发吃紧。\n来自供应链的消息显示，由于联发科无法继续给华为供货手机芯片，前者原本要在台积电投片的7nm制程芯片已暂停，这样就释放了约1.3万片的12英寸晶圆代工产能，而这部分缺口很可能由AMD填补上。市场预期，索尼和微软的新一代游戏机会缺货到2021年中旬，这样，AMD为这两大客户定制的CPU和GPU“钱”景乐观。\n台积电16nm和12nm制程则得益于联发科5G射频收发器和比特大陆矿机芯片需求强劲，营收同比增长近10%。\n不过，已量产的最先进制程5nm，因为受到最大客户苹果处于生产淡季的影响，营收有所下滑。\n台积电宣布2021年资本支出由之前预估的250-280亿美元提升至300亿美元，其中逾8成用于先进制程投资，而7nm、5nm、3nm、2nm这些制程产线都采用12英寸晶圆。\n不久前，台积电还宣布3年投资1000亿美元扩建晶圆厂，并确认将投资28.87亿美元扩充南京厂28nm制程工艺产能，每月增加4万片晶圆产量，主要用于生产汽车芯片。\n台积电指出，目前台湾地区的晶圆厂已经没有洁尘室空间，只有南京厂有现成空间可用，可以直接设置生产线，有利于快速形成产能。按照计划，台积电南京厂的28nm制程产能将于2022年下半年量产，2023年中达到4万片晶圆/月的满载产能目标。目前，台积电的南京工厂主要生产16nm芯片，月产能约为2万片晶圆。\n台积电要在5nm及更先进制程保持领先，EUV光刻机是重要一环，近年来，该公司不断购入EUV设备，以维持先进制程产能优势。台积电于日前召开技术论坛，指出其EUV设备累计装机数量到2020年已占全球总数的50％，到2020年为止，采用台积电EUV技术生产的晶圆，占全球EUV光刻晶圆数的65％。而随着制程推进至5nm，每片晶圆采用EUV掩模层大幅拉升，台积电预估2021年EUV掩模产能将是2019年的20倍。\n3nm方面，将增加EUV的使用量，效能将比5nm提升10-15%，功耗减少25-30%，逻辑密度增加1.7倍，SRAM密度提升1.2倍、模拟密度则提升1.1倍。\n随着以上最先进制程晶圆厂在未来1～3年内逐步完成建设并投入量产，以及美国亚利桑那州12吋厂第一期在2024年后进入量产，采用台积电EUV技术的晶圆数将快速增长，其在EUV设备上的投资将越来越大。\n2021年第二季度，台积电营收 132.9 亿美元，季增 2.9%，年增 28%，新台币营收 3721.5 亿元新台币，季增 2.7%，年增 19.8%，毛利率 50%，季减 2.4 个百分点，年减 3 个百分点，税后纯益 1343.6 亿元，季减 3.8%，年增 11.2%。\n台积电上半年营收 262.08 亿美元，新台币营收 7345.55 亿元，年增 18.2%，毛利率 51.2%，年减 1.2 个百分点，税后纯益 2740.49 亿元新台币，年增 15.2%。\n可见，最近一季，台积电的利润同比依然呈现增长态势，环比有所下降，主要受淡旺季交替影响所致。毛利率方面，台积电一直都是业界最高的，本季出现同比和环比下降，并不影响其营收和利润的优秀表现。之所以有所下降，与其成本压力有很大关系，因为该公司在5nm和3nm制程上投资巨大，而短期内回报与投入难以呈现正比关系；另外，失去了华为海思这个一个最先进制程的优质大客户，对其在7nm和5nm方面的利润率肯定会有影响；再者，面对行业普遍的涨价态势，台积电对原有客户合同的变化很小，这在一定程度上也会对毛利率产生影响。\n展望下半年，台积电预期8月及9月营收有望逐月回升，预期9月营收将再创单月营收历史新高，第三季营收将达到业绩展望上限，毛利率及营业利益率也有望贴近财测高标，而季度营收及获利将同步续创新高纪录。第四季因为苹果新款A15及M2处理器放量出货，5nm利用率达满载，营运表现值得期待。\n下半年，台积电进入传统旺季，增长动能来自于5nm新订单陆续进入量产。其中，苹果M1X及后续推出的M2等都将在下半年采用5nm量产，iPhone 13搭载的A15应用处理器6月开始以台积电加强版5nm量产投片，下半年逐月拉高投片量到第四季。\n另外，台积电下半年5G手机芯片接单强劲，高通采用台积电6nm量产新款5G手机芯片在第三季放量出货，还有3款5G手机芯片将扩大采用台积电7nm或6nm制程投片，明年初将推出的新一代Snapdragon 895+传出会在第四季采用台积电5nm量产，至于联发科新一代天玑2000系列亦会在下半年导入5nm量产投片。\n在技术、影响力、市场需求等多种因素的共同作用下，台积电的营收和市值节节攀升，市场预期依然向上。在未来一年内，很可能会再次打破一项或多项记录。三星和英特尔追赶的脚步愈加沉重了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWmain":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"03145":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831614046,"gmtCreate":1629318581185,"gmtModify":1676529999915,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831614046","repostId":"1103112059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103112059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629300620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103112059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103112059","media":"金十数据","summary":"美银调查显示，投资者纷纷增持现金，经济增长预期下降。","content":"<p>Author: Kun Huang</p><p>European investors' cash holdings rose to their highest level in a year, according to a Bank of America survey released Tuesday,<b>The vast majority of investors expect stock market gains to trim as Europe's economic outlook cools.</b></p><p>Bank of America's monthly survey of fund managers (FMS) was conducted between August 6 and 12, with more than 250 panelists participating and $749 billion in assets under management.</p><p>In the FMS, less than half of respondents expect further improvement in the European economy over the next 12 months. The cooling of growth expectations is largely due to concerns over Covid, with 19% of investors citing Delta as the biggest tail risk to Europe's economy, second only to inflation risks and the \"taper panic\" brought on by the central bank's phasing out of emergency stimulus measures.</p><p>In a similar survey in May, only 9% of respondents were worried about the coronavirus.</p><p>According to Bank of America, 23% of investors hold overweight cash, the highest rate in a year, and 88% of respondents expect European stocks to perform flat, with gains of only single digits.</p><p>This month, 36% of investors worldwide said they had increased their holdings in European stocks, compared with 45% last month. In addition, around 2% of investors worldwide have reduced their holdings in UK stocks. Rate-sensitive cyclical stocks such as banks and insurance and technology stocks are among the top three overweight stocks in Europe.</p><p>It is worth noting that respondents' expectations for global economic growth have also fallen sharply. Only 27% of respondents expected the global economy to grow in August, the lowest since April 2020 and well below the 91% level in March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5b53d6262538b1dfd087d8eba51d85\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Bank of America's August 2021 FMS also showed that 84% of fund managers surveyed believed that,<b>The Fed will signal to taper its quantitative easing by the end of the year. Of those, 28% expect the Fed to announce it at the Jackson Hole meeting, while 33% believe it will be announced at the Federal Open Market Committee in September, and 23% believe it will be announced in the fourth quarter of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4968607695a50409b8d4ba653300f7c\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before August, geopolitical risk was not a focus for investors. However, after the incident in Afghanistan, the proportion of geopolitical risk factors considered in FMS next month may increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3fba020da4fadf93e68fabc22f4dd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bank of America said that more and more investors are worried about inflation and reducing the risk of panic. About 70% of fund managers expect further fermentation of reflation trading, compared with only 64% of fund managers in the July survey.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Kun Huang</p><p>European investors' cash holdings rose to their highest level in a year, according to a Bank of America survey released Tuesday,<b>The vast majority of investors expect stock market gains to trim as Europe's economic outlook cools.</b></p><p>Bank of America's monthly survey of fund managers (FMS) was conducted between August 6 and 12, with more than 250 panelists participating and $749 billion in assets under management.</p><p>In the FMS, less than half of respondents expect further improvement in the European economy over the next 12 months. The cooling of growth expectations is largely due to concerns over Covid, with 19% of investors citing Delta as the biggest tail risk to Europe's economy, second only to inflation risks and the \"taper panic\" brought on by the central bank's phasing out of emergency stimulus measures.</p><p>In a similar survey in May, only 9% of respondents were worried about the coronavirus.</p><p>According to Bank of America, 23% of investors hold overweight cash, the highest rate in a year, and 88% of respondents expect European stocks to perform flat, with gains of only single digits.</p><p>This month, 36% of investors worldwide said they had increased their holdings in European stocks, compared with 45% last month. In addition, around 2% of investors worldwide have reduced their holdings in UK stocks. Rate-sensitive cyclical stocks such as banks and insurance and technology stocks are among the top three overweight stocks in Europe.</p><p>It is worth noting that respondents' expectations for global economic growth have also fallen sharply. Only 27% of respondents expected the global economy to grow in August, the lowest since April 2020 and well below the 91% level in March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5b53d6262538b1dfd087d8eba51d85\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Bank of America's August 2021 FMS also showed that 84% of fund managers surveyed believed that,<b>The Fed will signal to taper its quantitative easing by the end of the year. Of those, 28% expect the Fed to announce it at the Jackson Hole meeting, while 33% believe it will be announced at the Federal Open Market Committee in September, and 23% believe it will be announced in the fourth quarter of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4968607695a50409b8d4ba653300f7c\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before August, geopolitical risk was not a focus for investors. However, after the incident in Afghanistan, the proportion of geopolitical risk factors considered in FMS next month may increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3fba020da4fadf93e68fabc22f4dd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bank of America said that more and more investors are worried about inflation and reducing the risk of panic. About 70% of fund managers expect further fermentation of reflation trading, compared with only 64% of fund managers in the July survey.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ad35190f75132817724b1baf836f80","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103112059","content_text":"作者：黄琨\n美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，欧洲投资者的现金持有量增至一年来最高水平，绝大多数投资者预计，随着欧洲经济前景降温，股市涨幅将会削减。\n美国银行对基金经理的月度调查（FMS）于8月6日至12日期间进行，超过250名小组成员参与，所管理的资产规模达7490亿美元。\n在FMS中，仅有不到一半的受访者预计欧洲经济在未来12个月会进一步改善。增长预期降温主要源于对新冠病毒的担忧，19%的投资者认为德尔塔病毒是欧洲经济面临的最大尾部风险，仅次于通胀风险和央行逐步取消紧急刺激措施带来的“缩减恐慌”。\n而在5月份的一项类似调查中，担忧新冠病毒的受访者仅为9%。\n美银称，23%的投资者持有超配现金，这一比例为一年来最高，88%的受访者预计欧洲股市表现平淡，涨幅只会为个位数。\n本月，全球36%的投资者表示自己增持欧洲股票，而上个月这一比例为45%。此外，全球约2%的投资者减持英国股票。银行和保险等对利率敏感的周期性类股和科技股跻身欧洲三大增持股之列。\n值得注意的是，受访者对全球经济增长的预期也大幅下降。8月份预计全球经济会增长的受访者比例只有27%，为2020年4月以来的最低值，也远低于今年3月91%的水平。\n\n另外，美银2021年8月的FMS还显示，受调查的基金经理中有84%认为，美联储将在年底前发出缩减量化宽松的信号。其中，28%的投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔会议上宣布，而33%的投资者认为将于9月在联邦公开市场委员会上宣布，还有23%的投资者认为会在今年第四季度宣布。\n\n在8月份之前，地缘政治风险并不是投资者们考虑的重心。但阿富汗事件发生之后，下个月的FMS考量地缘政治风险因素的占比可能会提升。\n\n美银表示，越来越多投资者担忧通胀以及缩减恐慌风险，约70%的基金经理预计通货再膨胀交易还有进一步发酵的可能，而7月份调查时仅有64%的基金经理这样认为。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833573211,"gmtCreate":1629252264733,"gmtModify":1676529979964,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833573211","repostId":"1142251396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142251396","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629249714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142251396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 09:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Tech, Education Stocks Rebound as HSI Opens 0.21% Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142251396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.21%报25800点，国指涨0.16%报9072点，恒生科技指数涨0.38%报6242点。盘面上，教育股大肆反弹，新东方在线大涨超7%，新东方、中国科培均上涨","content":"<p>On August 18th, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.21% to 25,800 points, the State Index rising 0.16% to 9,072 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.38% to 6,242 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa272f7dda2ad573c0d6f9ffdf725118\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the disk, education stocks rebounded sharply,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental Online</a>Surged by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01890\">China Kepei</a>Both up; Sporting goods stocks, photovoltaic stocks, gas stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, Chinese brokerage stocks and power stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Light Energy</a>Opened more than 5% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01083\">Towngas China</a>Up 5%; Auto stocks are individually strong,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors</a>Soared by more than 10%; Large technology stocks are mixed, with Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease</a>Opened more than 2% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>down 1%; Steel stocks and property management stocks fell among the top, while gambling stocks, gold stocks and telecom stocks fell significantly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">Evergrande Properties</a>down 2.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">Evergrande Automobile</a>Down 2.69%, after the two companies suffered<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Vice Chairman Xia Haijun reduced his holdings.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Tech, Education Stocks Rebound as HSI Opens 0.21% Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Tech, Education Stocks Rebound as HSI Opens 0.21% Higher\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 09:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 18th, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.21% to 25,800 points, the State Index rising 0.16% to 9,072 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.38% to 6,242 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa272f7dda2ad573c0d6f9ffdf725118\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the disk, education stocks rebounded sharply,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental Online</a>Surged by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01890\">China Kepei</a>Both up; Sporting goods stocks, photovoltaic stocks, gas stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, Chinese brokerage stocks and power stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Light Energy</a>Opened more than 5% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01083\">Towngas China</a>Up 5%; Auto stocks are individually strong,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors</a>Soared by more than 10%; Large technology stocks are mixed, with Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease</a>Opened more than 2% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>down 1%; Steel stocks and property management stocks fell among the top, while gambling stocks, gold stocks and telecom stocks fell significantly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">Evergrande Properties</a>down 2.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">Evergrande Automobile</a>Down 2.69%, after the two companies suffered<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Vice Chairman Xia Haijun reduced his holdings.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142251396","content_text":"8月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.21%报25800点，国指涨0.16%报9072点，恒生科技指数涨0.38%报6242点。盘面上，教育股大肆反弹，新东方在线大涨超7%，新东方、中国科培均上涨；体育用品股、光伏股、燃气股、药品股、中资券商股、电力股普涨，信义光能高开逾5%，港华燃气涨5%；汽车股个别强势，小鹏汽车大涨超10%；大型科技股涨跌不一，美团、网易高开逾2%，阿里巴巴、腾讯跌1%；钢铁股、物管股跌幅靠前，濠赌股、黄金股、电信股下跌明显。\n恒大物业跌2.65%，恒大汽车跌2.69%，此前两公司遭中国恒大副主席夏海钧减持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HSImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833570960,"gmtCreate":1629252182350,"gmtModify":1676529979911,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833570960","repostId":"2160893897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160893897","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629251038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160893897?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 09:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Retail unexpectedly fell, U.S. economy slumped more than expected in July, Goldman Sachs said it was bad","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160893897","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛表示，美国7月零售销售和汽车产量低于预期，加上德尔塔变种病毒越来越可能拖累服务消费，该行经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设。","content":"<p>The U.S. market has changed again. The front foot is still immersed in the discussion that the economy is improving and the Federal Reserve may take action in advance. The retail sales data of the United States, known as \"terror data\", has sent bad news.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday (August 17th) showed that U.S. retail sales in July decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a decrease of 0.3%, compared with the previous value of an increase of 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4ccbd68c1f0e68023a7d7850102c2aa\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The dismal data caused turmoil in the market. The yield of the US dollar and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Bond rose in the intraday session, and the three major US stock indexes closed down collectively for the first time since July 30th, all of which recorded the largest closing decline since July 19th.</p><p>The reason why the market reacted so sharply is that consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retail sales data directly reflects the increase and decrease of consumer spending in the United States, which plays an important guiding role in the country's economic situation and prospects.</p><p><b>After the data is released,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The report was released at the first time, summarizing the current economic situation in the United States in a concise and comprehensive way: \"not good\".</b>Chris Hussey, strategist at the bank, wrote:</p><p>Although core retail sales were upwardly revised for May and June, retail sales fell 1.1% in July, a bigger-than-expected decline. Notably, the drop comes amid travel restrictions and lockdowns not implemented by the government, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less — in line with the sharp drop in last week's Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. In addition, surveys of individual categories showed the biggest slowdowns in consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, perhaps also reflecting the impact of the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leaders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>(Home Depot) reported earnings that showed consumer behavior is slowing. On the supply side, Goldman noted that industrial production rose in July, driven mainly by an 11.2% increase in automotive and parts manufacturing, but corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, driven by current sales and expected sales components, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p><b>Hussey said lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood that the Delta variant is weighing on service consumption, could allow the bank's economists to revise their assumptions for growth in the second half</b>, \"although we still expect that the Delta variant will not have a material economic impact on the United States in the context of ample vaccine supplies and relatively accommodative COVID policies.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Also expressed a pessimistic view on the U.S. economic outlook. Commenting on the disappointing retail figures, the chief economist, Michelle Meyer, stressed that although she expects a modest increase in retail sales in August, there are \"still downside risks\":</p><p>Spending at non-store retailers should rebound, but spending on services will weaken. We see a clear pullback in travel spending from the data, which seems to be in line with the trend of increased COVID cases. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers raised concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices.<b>Meyer expects that the seasonally adjusted real consumption in the United States in the third quarter will grow at only 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 12.3% growth rate in the second quarter.</b></p><p>During an online town hall meeting with educators and students across the United States on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the lasting and severe economic impact of the pandemic is uncertain, and support for service industry jobs needs to be provided.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail unexpectedly fell, U.S. economy slumped more than expected in July, Goldman Sachs said it was bad</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail unexpectedly fell, U.S. economy slumped more than expected in July, Goldman Sachs said it was bad\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 09:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. market has changed again. The front foot is still immersed in the discussion that the economy is improving and the Federal Reserve may take action in advance. The retail sales data of the United States, known as \"terror data\", has sent bad news.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday (August 17th) showed that U.S. retail sales in July decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a decrease of 0.3%, compared with the previous value of an increase of 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4ccbd68c1f0e68023a7d7850102c2aa\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The dismal data caused turmoil in the market. The yield of the US dollar and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Bond rose in the intraday session, and the three major US stock indexes closed down collectively for the first time since July 30th, all of which recorded the largest closing decline since July 19th.</p><p>The reason why the market reacted so sharply is that consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retail sales data directly reflects the increase and decrease of consumer spending in the United States, which plays an important guiding role in the country's economic situation and prospects.</p><p><b>After the data is released,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The report was released at the first time, summarizing the current economic situation in the United States in a concise and comprehensive way: \"not good\".</b>Chris Hussey, strategist at the bank, wrote:</p><p>Although core retail sales were upwardly revised for May and June, retail sales fell 1.1% in July, a bigger-than-expected decline. Notably, the drop comes amid travel restrictions and lockdowns not implemented by the government, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less — in line with the sharp drop in last week's Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. In addition, surveys of individual categories showed the biggest slowdowns in consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, perhaps also reflecting the impact of the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leaders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>(Home Depot) reported earnings that showed consumer behavior is slowing. On the supply side, Goldman noted that industrial production rose in July, driven mainly by an 11.2% increase in automotive and parts manufacturing, but corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, driven by current sales and expected sales components, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p><b>Hussey said lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood that the Delta variant is weighing on service consumption, could allow the bank's economists to revise their assumptions for growth in the second half</b>, \"although we still expect that the Delta variant will not have a material economic impact on the United States in the context of ample vaccine supplies and relatively accommodative COVID policies.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Also expressed a pessimistic view on the U.S. economic outlook. Commenting on the disappointing retail figures, the chief economist, Michelle Meyer, stressed that although she expects a modest increase in retail sales in August, there are \"still downside risks\":</p><p>Spending at non-store retailers should rebound, but spending on services will weaken. We see a clear pullback in travel spending from the data, which seems to be in line with the trend of increased COVID cases. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers raised concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices.<b>Meyer expects that the seasonally adjusted real consumption in the United States in the third quarter will grow at only 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 12.3% growth rate in the second quarter.</b></p><p>During an online town hall meeting with educators and students across the United States on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the lasting and severe economic impact of the pandemic is uncertain, and support for service industry jobs needs to be provided.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638212\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638212","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160893897","content_text":"美国市场又变天了，前脚还沉浸在经济向好，美联储可能提前采取行动的讨论之中，后脚素有“恐怖数据”之称的美国零售销售数据就送来了坏消息。\n美国商务部周二（8月17日）公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n惨淡数据在市场掀起动荡。美元和基准10年期美国国债收益率盘中拉升，美股三大指数自7月30日以来首次集体收跌，均创7月19日以来最大收盘跌幅。\n市场之所以反应这么大，是因为消费者支出占美国经济活动逾三分之二，零售销售数据直接反映出美国消费者支出的增减变化，对该国的经济现状和前景具有重要指导作用。\n数据公布后，高盛第一时间发布报告，言简意赅地总结了当前美国经济形势：“不妙”(not good)。 该行策略师Chris Hussey写道：\n\n 尽管5月和6月的核心零售被上修，但7月份零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降出现在政府并未实施的出行限制和封锁的情况下，这表明美国消费者选择待在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期的影响。消费者领头羊沃尔玛(Walmart)和家得宝(Home Depot)公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n\n在供应端，高盛指出，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，但企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\nHussey表示，7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上德尔塔变种病毒越来越可能拖累服务消费，该行经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，“尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，德尔塔变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n美国银行也对美国经济前景表达了悲观的看法。该首席经济学家Michelle Meyer在对令人失望的零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”：\n\n 非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱。我们从数据中看到旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例增加的趋势相一致。同时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧。\n\nMeyer预计，美国第三季度经季节性因素调整后的实际消费指出环比增速将仅为1.5%，较二季度12.3%的增速大幅放缓。\n美联储主席鲍威尔周二与全美教育工作者和学生进行线上市政厅会议时表示，疫情的持久和严重经济影响尚不确定，需向服务业就业提供支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897133229,"gmtCreate":1628898280961,"gmtModify":1676529886307,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897133229","repostId":"2159906592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895859539,"gmtCreate":1628734723221,"gmtModify":1676529836258,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895859539","repostId":"1186654887","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186654887","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628734439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186654887?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 10:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Shen Yanan, President of Li Auto: Internal discussion on the possibility of returning to A shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186654887","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月12日，$理想汽车$总裁沈亚楠在香港上市采访中表示，内部在研讨回归A股可能性。刚刚，理想汽车正式登陆港交所，股票代码为“HK2015”，上市首日平开后随之破发。截止发稿，理想汽车股价116.1港元，跌1.61%，以此计算，理想汽车总市值目前总市值为1984亿人民币。至此，美股上市一年后，理想汽车在香港成功完成双重上市，募得资金118亿港元，资金储备将达到约402亿人民币。但这些钱，够理想汽车烧么？相比另外两家，理想汽车显然更缺钱。","content":"<p>On August 12,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>President Shen Yanan said in an interview with Hong Kong listing that the possibility of returning to A shares is being discussed internally.</p><p><b>After Hong Kong listing, Li Xiang is still short of money</b></p><p>Just now, Li Auto officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the stock code \"HK2015\", and then broke after it opened flat on the first day of listing. As of press time, the share price of Li Auto is HK$ 116.1, down 1.61%. Based on this calculation, the total market value of Li Auto is currently RMB 19.84 billion.</p><p>So far, one year after the listing of the US stock market, Li Auto successfully completed the dual listing in Hong Kong, raising HK$ 11.8 billion, and the capital reserve will reach about RMB 40.2 billion.</p><p>But is this money enough for Li Auto to burn?</p><p>On September 12th, 2018, Li Bin just returned from the listing of Nasdaq, and held a senior executive meeting to remind everyone, \"Now is the most dangerous time for us, because the plane is the most dangerous when it takes off. Once it stalls, it is over, there is no chance at all, and there is no chance to coast.\"</p><p>The reality is that after the listing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The reliance on external blood transfusions has not changed. According to the statistics of Box Lunch Finance, since its listing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The accumulated financing of automobiles through stock issuance and convertible bonds exceeded US$2.825 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Ideal is also actively raising funds. Among them, Li Auto completed equity financing, D round, strategic financing and IPO listing in just one year, with four rounds of financing totaling over 2.4 billion USD;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Six rounds of financing were completed within one year, including the listing of U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks, with an amount of about 4.88 billion USD.</p><p><b>For new cars, lack of money is the main theme.</b>Compared with the other two, Li Auto is obviously short of money.</p><p><b>No money to go public?</b></p><p>New car-building forces are either on the road of lack of money or on the road of finding money.</p><p>At the end of May, when the 2021 Ideal ONE was released, faced with rumors of a \"second return to Hong Kong for listing\" at that time, Li Xiang responded, \"Of course, the more money, the better.\" Because the opponents of the three major car-making forces include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>For new players and traditional car companies, the funds are very sufficient. \"Li Auto doesn't mind obtaining capital reserves in any way, including financing from the secondary market, bank loans and bond issuance.\"</p><p>At that time, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>According to the news, Li Auto has quietly submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and plans to return to Hong Kong for listing by way of dual listing.</p><p>Compared with last year's US stock market listing, Li Auto disclosed in the prospectus that it held 1.43 billion yuan of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash. This time, it returned to Hong Kong for listing. As of July 20, 2021, China's cash reserves reached 30.36 billion yuan. After a year, Ideal has really become much richer, but for Li Auto, which has not yet fully realized its own \"hematopoietic\" ability, this money is still not enough to burn.</p><p><b>As can be seen from the prospectus, Li Auto is not having an ideal life.</b></p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Ideal's net losses were 1.532 billion yuan, 2.438 billion yuan and 152 million yuan respectively, with an accumulated loss of 4.122 billion yuan. Compared with the previous two years, Li Auto in 2020 benefited from the positive gross profit margin, and its losses narrowed. However, by Q1 this year, the losses further expanded to 360 million yuan, which exceeded the sum of ideal losses last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc2490c27fa3558c317491e271f8bc3\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ideal pointed out that the reasons for the loss mainly came from investment in research and development and investment in autonomous driving solutions, in addition to being dragged down by self-built factories and substantially increased marketing expenditures.</p><p><b>Building a car is an expensive business?</b></p><p>Li Bin has a 20 billion threshold, which has been quoted many times, but in the view of He Xiaopeng, a latecomer, this is only the entry level. In the process of building a car from 0 to 1, but from 1 to 100, \"in terms of globalization, technological innovation, organization, etc., the money required must exceed 30 billion yuan, and everyone should prepare more food and grass.\"</p><p>That is to say,<b>50 billion yuan is the standard for a new car manufacturer to survive</b>In the case that it still can't make profits on a large scale, even Nio, which is slightly ahead, currently depends on external financing, and Li Auto is no exception.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc01d069885880b62dccf9bacee04a\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, after the listing of the US stock market, Nio, Ideal and XPeng Automobile are still persevering in seeking various new financing means, and additional issuance, rights issue and convertible bonds have appeared successively:</p><p><i>In January last year, Nio completed two convertible bond financings in a month, totaling nearly 3 billion yuan. At the end of the year, Nio also raised $1.73 billion and $2.65 billion in two other additional issuances;</i></p><p><i>In December last year, XPeng raised $2.16 billion by issuing additional funds, becoming the largest initial share issuance in the history of Chinese stocks;</i></p><p><i>In the same month, Ideal received $1.363 billion from additional issuance.</i></p><p><b>The three giants of the new car-making forces are thirsty for funds and their actions speak for themselves.</b></p><p>However, these financing channels are not enough, and there are lessons that Nio Motors is still on the verge of bankruptcy after its listing in the U.S. stock market. Before the company achieves stable profits, it still needs to be alert to cash flow crisis.</p><p>Therefore, they are targeting Hong Kong. Ideal and XPeng both hope to rush to Hong Kong IPO by dual listing. XPeng Automobile took the lead. On July 7, XPeng Automobile was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising about HK$14 billion, becoming the fifth largest new stock in Hong Kong stocks in terms of fund-raising scale since 2021.</p><p>At present, there are three main ways for Chinese stocks to return to Hong Kong stocks:<b>After the privatization and delisting of US stocks, it went to Hong Kong for listing, secondary listing and dual listing.</b></p><p>Three years ago, the HKEx launched the largest mechanism reform in 25 years, introduced different rights to the same shares, opened channels for biotechnology companies with no income, reformed the regulations on secondary listing, and allowed the \"new economy\" Chinese stocks to go to Hong Kong for secondary listing since April 2018.</p><p>In 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>After winning the crown of Hong Kong stock fund-raising amount with HK$ 102.1 billion that year, the enthusiasm of Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong for secondary listing was completely ignited, and then<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>A series of Chinese stocks represented have returned one after another.</p><p>However, for a secondary listing in Hong Kong, the company must have been listed on an eligible exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSE.UK\">London Stock Exchange</a>), but also maintain a good compliance record for at least two full fiscal years.</p><p>Obviously,<b>Ideal and XPeng Motors, which have only been listed for one year, do not meet this basic requirement, so they can only choose to go to Hong Kong to raise funds by \"dual major markets\"</b>。 Compared with the secondary listing, the dual listing is more strict, and it is not only subject to the supervision of the SEC, but also the joint supervision of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). However, its advantage is that since both places are the first listing places, its listing status in the Hong Kong market will not be affected if the company suffers delisting in the United States.</p><p>According to Caixin report: This model is more difficult than the secondary listing. The questions asked by HKEx are as fine as a needle tip, and the application materials should be prepared in great detail. Since the reform of the listing system of Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018, few large-scale Chinese stocks have landed in Hong Kong stocks in the form of dual listing. The last time China concept stocks were listed in this way was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>It was listed in Hong Kong in July 2018.</p><p><b>Li Auto attaches importance to domestic funds, which can be seen.</b></p><p>Of course, besides the objective requirements, there are other considerations for XPeng to meet the challenge.</p><p>Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that from a macro perspective, the current information appeal of US stocks for Chinese stocks is increasing, and the financing of Chinese stocks in US stocks may be restricted in the future. At this time, it is very necessary for enterprises such as the three new car manufacturers that have not yet achieved profitability and need to continue to invest money in them to raise financing in Hong Kong stocks.<b>Poor financing channels will lead to corporate liquidity crisis for new car forces.</b></p><p>Global consulting firm<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARW\">Arrow</a>Dai Jiahui, managing director of Platinum in Shanghai and head of the automotive industry and industry in the Asia-Pacific region, shares the same view. He believes,<b>Companies that have not yet achieved profitability still need to burn a lot of money to operate. Some companies have experienced a crisis of cash flow shortage before, and reserve funds are also to prevent similar situations from happening again.</b></p><p><b>Shortage of money to build a car, shortage of money to build a</b></p><p>It has not yet achieved profitability, but the car-building business still burns money.</p><p>among<b>R&D investment accounts for the largest proportion.</b>According to the 2020 financial reports disclosed by Nio, XPeng and Ideal, their investment in R&D accounted for 15%, 29.52% and 11.62% of the annual revenue respectively.</p><p>According to the prospectus of XPeng Automobile, XPeng is expected to raise a maximum total of about 12.4 billion yuan in Hong Kong stocks. Among them, 45% (about 5.63 billion yuan) of funds should be invested in enriching product portfolio and developing new technologies.</p><p>According to the prospectus of Li Auto, from 2018 to Q1 2021, its<b>The cumulative investment in R&D is about 3.6 billion yuan</b>Among them, in Q1 this year alone, R&D expenditure was 514.5 million yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab408d6299f0b6a1dad7b50f3c78839\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, this R&D cost is undoubtedly low for new energy vehicle companies. Compared with Nio and XPeng Automobile, as of Q1 this year, Nio has invested more than 11.5 billion yuan in R&D, and XPeng Automobile has invested 5.38 billion yuan.<b>The frugality of R&D investment is, on the one hand, the strong internal cost control of Ideal, and of course, it is related to the fact that it only produces one model in three years without too much local investment.</b></p><p>Since the establishment of Li Auto, there is only ONE production model, the Ideal ONE; And NIO has four models: ES6, ES8, EC6 and ET7; XPeng has three models in the G3, P5 and P7, and the XPeng G3i is also coming soon.</p><p><b>However, in 2021, the car-building movement will still blindly pursue operational efficiency, and it will no longer be able to fight with other car companies.</b>2025, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The electric vehicle market will usher in an inflection point, when the entire market will reach 8 million units, and the knockout round will also begin at that time.</p><p>Therefore,<b>Li Auto is also now shifting its focus to speed and scale</b>And in February this year, it announced its 2025 strategy, with the goal of gaining 20% market share and selling 1.6 million vehicles.</p><p>However, from the current point of view, the lack of rich products may be the biggest obstacle to achieving the ideal sales target of 1.6 million. Therefore,<b>Ideal begins to think of ways around marketing, which, of course, involves investing a lot of money.</b></p><p>According to LatePost, Ideal ONE's audience used to be targeted at middle-income families with an annual income of more than 300,000. Ideal's strategy in the past was to target this group of people.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Wait for channels to do content marketing. Now, in order to reach more groups, Ideal began to put on morning and evening peak traffic broadcasts.</p><p>In addition, in order to increase Q1 sales, Ideal held a promotion in March, and launched a financial scheme with half down payment and two years of interest-free, which is equivalent to two years of interest for users. The deadline on the promotional poster was March, but the campaign continued until April.</p><p>At the same time, offline channels are also expanding rapidly. Last June, Li Xiang revealed in an interview with Lakeside University that whether there are Li Auto stores in a city has a market share difference of eight times. After realizing this, he increased his store opening goal from 20 to 60 that year. \"We can only open 20 stores to reach this year's original goal, but if the opponent's growth is twice, it is equivalent to your negative growth.\" Li wanted to explain.</p><p>After the new goal of selling 1.6 million units in 2025 is set, Ideal plans to expand to 200 stores this year.</p><p>According to the financial report, the selling, general and administrative expenses of Li Auto in Q1 increased to 5.099 billion yuan from 4.293 billion yuan in the last quarter, a year-on-year increase of 277.7%, precisely due to the increase in marketing and promotional activities, as well as the increase in employee wages and rental expenses as the sales network expanded. Although this is not much compared with 1.2 billion yuan in Nio and 2.62 billion yuan in XPeng, it also shows from the side that the ideal investment in marketing may only be much more in the future.</p><p><b>In addition to promotion, marketing, and boosting sales, Ideal is also planning future products and technologies. Naturally, this also requires a lot of money.</b></p><p>In the next 10 years, Li Auto will launch a variety of products priced between 150,000 and 500,000 around the second-generation extended-range platform, Whale and Shark, two pure-electric platforms. It plans to launch two high-voltage pure-electric vehicles in 2023, and at least two pure-electric vehicles will be launched every year.</p><p>To this end, Li Auto started a rapid enrollment expansion. In February, Li Auto set up an R&D center in Shanghai, and the recruitment started in March, with a scale of more than 2,000 people; Beijing R&D Center is also expanding its enrollment to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Networking and autonomous driving teams are the main teams, among which the number of engineers related to autonomous driving will increase to 600. As of March this year, Ideal has invested 1,633 employees in R&D, which means that the size of R&D team will double by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69071abb27693e5378b1baf86cd3717e\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the prospectus, Li Auto needs a lot of funds for R&D and expansion of production capacity. The reason for the expansion of net loss in 2021 is mainly due to continuous investment in R&D and autonomous driving solutions for future models, as well as the expansion of production facilities and consumption and service networks.</p><p>Li Tie, co-founder and CFO of Li Auto, said that research and development expenses are expected to reach 6 billion yuan per year in the next three years, with more than half of the expenses going to research and development work related to autonomous driving. \"<b>The purpose of financing is to make up for R&D.</b>”</p><p>It can be seen that at present, Ideal's demand for research and development and production of new cars is very urgent, with only 30 billion reserve funds, which pales in comparison with the huge capital expenditure faced in the next few years. Therefore, it needs to be listed in Hong Kong to raise more funds.</p><p><b>Build a car into qualifying</b></p><p>Even with the money on the books now, new car manufacturers have not stepped into the safe zone.</p><p>From the perspective of new products, Wei Xiaoli's products have rarely been launched this year. Only XPeng Automobile has launched a brand-new model P5, while others are mainly selling mid-term facelift models. Even the sales volume that makes them proud, the three combined can't catch up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。</p><p><b>Without sufficient scale, it is difficult for a company to turn from loss to profit.</b></p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that in the case of chip shortage in the whole industry, the monthly sales of start-up car companies performed well month-on-month. However, on the whole, due to the high price of products, the sales volume is mainly concentrated in first-and second-tier cities, and it is difficult for enterprises to effectively expand their sales volume. How to reduce the selling price and adapt to the demand of mainstream automobile consumers is the objective pressure faced by these enterprises.</p><p>In addition, at present, the average age of new car manufacturers is about one and a half years, and their products are generally young, so they are attractive. However, three to four years after the product is launched, it will gradually age. Therefore, the automobile industry has a product update logic of \"one-year minor facelift, two-year mid-term facelift, three-year major facelift and four-five-year replacement\". In the fiercely competitive Chinese market, car companies need to keep updating their models and launching more models to ensure their long-term market competitiveness.</p><p><b>In contrast, Li Auto belongs to a maverick new car manufacturer, whether it is model or technical path. But this choice is a double-edged sword for the ideal.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the single model and extended-range technology route make it possible for Li Auto to open up the new energy market while achieving cost control; But on the other hand, whether the ideal of a single model can win in every future battle becomes a probabilistic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c0f93d5208baa34c58b7065fe44288\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As for the current situation that there is only one extended-range product in Li Auto, Ping An Securities also wrote in relevant research reports, \"In terms of industry trends, extended-range product is not the mainstream of future development. With the decline of battery cost and the improvement of infrastructure construction, the endurance and cost advantages of extended-range vehicles compared with pure electric vehicles may no longer exist, and the growth space of the industry is limited.\"</p><p><b>In the long run, pure electricity is inevitable, and the automotive industry is more willing to see extended range as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution</b>, because adding a fuel engine makes the vehicle less environmentally friendly. Therefore, in terms of policy, hybrid vehicles are also discouraged.</p><p>In 2019, in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid models (including extended-range models) dropped from 10,000 yuan to 8,500 yuan, and then to 6,800 yuan in 2020. While subsidies are decreasing, policy inclusion is also declining. According to the latest regulations in Beijing, potential buyers of extended-range electric vehicles must participate in the lottery to obtain license to purchase licenses; At the beginning of 2021, Shanghai announced that it would no longer give green cards to extended-range electric vehicles starting in January 2023.</p><p>Therefore,<b>The income uncertainty brought by a single model and the risk of policy tightening push Li Auto to complete the R&D and laying of multiple product lines in the shortest time.</b></p><p>At the same time, industry competition is also accelerating. In the past two years, nearly 10 traditional car companies have launched their independent electric high-end car brands to scramble for the track; In Internet technology companies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Baidu, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>After entering the market one after another, Lei Jun bluntly said, \"I will bet everything and fight for Xiaomi cars.\"</p><p>In an interview in May,<b>Li Bin said that from 2019 to 2024, China's automobile industry was in a \"qualifying round\".</b>\"Maybe two games have just been played, and now many powerful peers have come in. This industry is becoming more and more interesting, and the competition is definitely getting fiercer.\"</p><p>Wei Xiaoli's competition for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is not just a matter of money. He Xiaopeng chatted with Li Bin and said, \"<b>We were all sitting at the card table, all in the qualifying round, not yet in the knockout round, not on the card table.</b>”</p><p>The infinite war of new energy has entered 2.0. The game has just begun, and the winner has not yet been decided.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shen Yanan, President of Li Auto: Internal discussion on the possibility of returning to A shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShen Yanan, President of Li Auto: Internal discussion on the possibility of returning to A shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 10:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 12,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>President Shen Yanan said in an interview with Hong Kong listing that the possibility of returning to A shares is being discussed internally.</p><p><b>After Hong Kong listing, Li Xiang is still short of money</b></p><p>Just now, Li Auto officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the stock code \"HK2015\", and then broke after it opened flat on the first day of listing. As of press time, the share price of Li Auto is HK$ 116.1, down 1.61%. Based on this calculation, the total market value of Li Auto is currently RMB 19.84 billion.</p><p>So far, one year after the listing of the US stock market, Li Auto successfully completed the dual listing in Hong Kong, raising HK$ 11.8 billion, and the capital reserve will reach about RMB 40.2 billion.</p><p>But is this money enough for Li Auto to burn?</p><p>On September 12th, 2018, Li Bin just returned from the listing of Nasdaq, and held a senior executive meeting to remind everyone, \"Now is the most dangerous time for us, because the plane is the most dangerous when it takes off. Once it stalls, it is over, there is no chance at all, and there is no chance to coast.\"</p><p>The reality is that after the listing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The reliance on external blood transfusions has not changed. According to the statistics of Box Lunch Finance, since its listing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The accumulated financing of automobiles through stock issuance and convertible bonds exceeded US$2.825 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Ideal is also actively raising funds. Among them, Li Auto completed equity financing, D round, strategic financing and IPO listing in just one year, with four rounds of financing totaling over 2.4 billion USD;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Six rounds of financing were completed within one year, including the listing of U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks, with an amount of about 4.88 billion USD.</p><p><b>For new cars, lack of money is the main theme.</b>Compared with the other two, Li Auto is obviously short of money.</p><p><b>No money to go public?</b></p><p>New car-building forces are either on the road of lack of money or on the road of finding money.</p><p>At the end of May, when the 2021 Ideal ONE was released, faced with rumors of a \"second return to Hong Kong for listing\" at that time, Li Xiang responded, \"Of course, the more money, the better.\" Because the opponents of the three major car-making forces include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>For new players and traditional car companies, the funds are very sufficient. \"Li Auto doesn't mind obtaining capital reserves in any way, including financing from the secondary market, bank loans and bond issuance.\"</p><p>At that time, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>According to the news, Li Auto has quietly submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and plans to return to Hong Kong for listing by way of dual listing.</p><p>Compared with last year's US stock market listing, Li Auto disclosed in the prospectus that it held 1.43 billion yuan of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash. This time, it returned to Hong Kong for listing. As of July 20, 2021, China's cash reserves reached 30.36 billion yuan. After a year, Ideal has really become much richer, but for Li Auto, which has not yet fully realized its own \"hematopoietic\" ability, this money is still not enough to burn.</p><p><b>As can be seen from the prospectus, Li Auto is not having an ideal life.</b></p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Ideal's net losses were 1.532 billion yuan, 2.438 billion yuan and 152 million yuan respectively, with an accumulated loss of 4.122 billion yuan. Compared with the previous two years, Li Auto in 2020 benefited from the positive gross profit margin, and its losses narrowed. However, by Q1 this year, the losses further expanded to 360 million yuan, which exceeded the sum of ideal losses last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc2490c27fa3558c317491e271f8bc3\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ideal pointed out that the reasons for the loss mainly came from investment in research and development and investment in autonomous driving solutions, in addition to being dragged down by self-built factories and substantially increased marketing expenditures.</p><p><b>Building a car is an expensive business?</b></p><p>Li Bin has a 20 billion threshold, which has been quoted many times, but in the view of He Xiaopeng, a latecomer, this is only the entry level. In the process of building a car from 0 to 1, but from 1 to 100, \"in terms of globalization, technological innovation, organization, etc., the money required must exceed 30 billion yuan, and everyone should prepare more food and grass.\"</p><p>That is to say,<b>50 billion yuan is the standard for a new car manufacturer to survive</b>In the case that it still can't make profits on a large scale, even Nio, which is slightly ahead, currently depends on external financing, and Li Auto is no exception.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc01d069885880b62dccf9bacee04a\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, after the listing of the US stock market, Nio, Ideal and XPeng Automobile are still persevering in seeking various new financing means, and additional issuance, rights issue and convertible bonds have appeared successively:</p><p><i>In January last year, Nio completed two convertible bond financings in a month, totaling nearly 3 billion yuan. At the end of the year, Nio also raised $1.73 billion and $2.65 billion in two other additional issuances;</i></p><p><i>In December last year, XPeng raised $2.16 billion by issuing additional funds, becoming the largest initial share issuance in the history of Chinese stocks;</i></p><p><i>In the same month, Ideal received $1.363 billion from additional issuance.</i></p><p><b>The three giants of the new car-making forces are thirsty for funds and their actions speak for themselves.</b></p><p>However, these financing channels are not enough, and there are lessons that Nio Motors is still on the verge of bankruptcy after its listing in the U.S. stock market. Before the company achieves stable profits, it still needs to be alert to cash flow crisis.</p><p>Therefore, they are targeting Hong Kong. Ideal and XPeng both hope to rush to Hong Kong IPO by dual listing. XPeng Automobile took the lead. On July 7, XPeng Automobile was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising about HK$14 billion, becoming the fifth largest new stock in Hong Kong stocks in terms of fund-raising scale since 2021.</p><p>At present, there are three main ways for Chinese stocks to return to Hong Kong stocks:<b>After the privatization and delisting of US stocks, it went to Hong Kong for listing, secondary listing and dual listing.</b></p><p>Three years ago, the HKEx launched the largest mechanism reform in 25 years, introduced different rights to the same shares, opened channels for biotechnology companies with no income, reformed the regulations on secondary listing, and allowed the \"new economy\" Chinese stocks to go to Hong Kong for secondary listing since April 2018.</p><p>In 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>After winning the crown of Hong Kong stock fund-raising amount with HK$ 102.1 billion that year, the enthusiasm of Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong for secondary listing was completely ignited, and then<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>A series of Chinese stocks represented have returned one after another.</p><p>However, for a secondary listing in Hong Kong, the company must have been listed on an eligible exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSE.UK\">London Stock Exchange</a>), but also maintain a good compliance record for at least two full fiscal years.</p><p>Obviously,<b>Ideal and XPeng Motors, which have only been listed for one year, do not meet this basic requirement, so they can only choose to go to Hong Kong to raise funds by \"dual major markets\"</b>。 Compared with the secondary listing, the dual listing is more strict, and it is not only subject to the supervision of the SEC, but also the joint supervision of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). However, its advantage is that since both places are the first listing places, its listing status in the Hong Kong market will not be affected if the company suffers delisting in the United States.</p><p>According to Caixin report: This model is more difficult than the secondary listing. The questions asked by HKEx are as fine as a needle tip, and the application materials should be prepared in great detail. Since the reform of the listing system of Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018, few large-scale Chinese stocks have landed in Hong Kong stocks in the form of dual listing. The last time China concept stocks were listed in this way was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>It was listed in Hong Kong in July 2018.</p><p><b>Li Auto attaches importance to domestic funds, which can be seen.</b></p><p>Of course, besides the objective requirements, there are other considerations for XPeng to meet the challenge.</p><p>Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that from a macro perspective, the current information appeal of US stocks for Chinese stocks is increasing, and the financing of Chinese stocks in US stocks may be restricted in the future. At this time, it is very necessary for enterprises such as the three new car manufacturers that have not yet achieved profitability and need to continue to invest money in them to raise financing in Hong Kong stocks.<b>Poor financing channels will lead to corporate liquidity crisis for new car forces.</b></p><p>Global consulting firm<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARW\">Arrow</a>Dai Jiahui, managing director of Platinum in Shanghai and head of the automotive industry and industry in the Asia-Pacific region, shares the same view. He believes,<b>Companies that have not yet achieved profitability still need to burn a lot of money to operate. Some companies have experienced a crisis of cash flow shortage before, and reserve funds are also to prevent similar situations from happening again.</b></p><p><b>Shortage of money to build a car, shortage of money to build a</b></p><p>It has not yet achieved profitability, but the car-building business still burns money.</p><p>among<b>R&D investment accounts for the largest proportion.</b>According to the 2020 financial reports disclosed by Nio, XPeng and Ideal, their investment in R&D accounted for 15%, 29.52% and 11.62% of the annual revenue respectively.</p><p>According to the prospectus of XPeng Automobile, XPeng is expected to raise a maximum total of about 12.4 billion yuan in Hong Kong stocks. Among them, 45% (about 5.63 billion yuan) of funds should be invested in enriching product portfolio and developing new technologies.</p><p>According to the prospectus of Li Auto, from 2018 to Q1 2021, its<b>The cumulative investment in R&D is about 3.6 billion yuan</b>Among them, in Q1 this year alone, R&D expenditure was 514.5 million yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab408d6299f0b6a1dad7b50f3c78839\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, this R&D cost is undoubtedly low for new energy vehicle companies. Compared with Nio and XPeng Automobile, as of Q1 this year, Nio has invested more than 11.5 billion yuan in R&D, and XPeng Automobile has invested 5.38 billion yuan.<b>The frugality of R&D investment is, on the one hand, the strong internal cost control of Ideal, and of course, it is related to the fact that it only produces one model in three years without too much local investment.</b></p><p>Since the establishment of Li Auto, there is only ONE production model, the Ideal ONE; And NIO has four models: ES6, ES8, EC6 and ET7; XPeng has three models in the G3, P5 and P7, and the XPeng G3i is also coming soon.</p><p><b>However, in 2021, the car-building movement will still blindly pursue operational efficiency, and it will no longer be able to fight with other car companies.</b>2025, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The electric vehicle market will usher in an inflection point, when the entire market will reach 8 million units, and the knockout round will also begin at that time.</p><p>Therefore,<b>Li Auto is also now shifting its focus to speed and scale</b>And in February this year, it announced its 2025 strategy, with the goal of gaining 20% market share and selling 1.6 million vehicles.</p><p>However, from the current point of view, the lack of rich products may be the biggest obstacle to achieving the ideal sales target of 1.6 million. Therefore,<b>Ideal begins to think of ways around marketing, which, of course, involves investing a lot of money.</b></p><p>According to LatePost, Ideal ONE's audience used to be targeted at middle-income families with an annual income of more than 300,000. Ideal's strategy in the past was to target this group of people.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Wait for channels to do content marketing. Now, in order to reach more groups, Ideal began to put on morning and evening peak traffic broadcasts.</p><p>In addition, in order to increase Q1 sales, Ideal held a promotion in March, and launched a financial scheme with half down payment and two years of interest-free, which is equivalent to two years of interest for users. The deadline on the promotional poster was March, but the campaign continued until April.</p><p>At the same time, offline channels are also expanding rapidly. Last June, Li Xiang revealed in an interview with Lakeside University that whether there are Li Auto stores in a city has a market share difference of eight times. After realizing this, he increased his store opening goal from 20 to 60 that year. \"We can only open 20 stores to reach this year's original goal, but if the opponent's growth is twice, it is equivalent to your negative growth.\" Li wanted to explain.</p><p>After the new goal of selling 1.6 million units in 2025 is set, Ideal plans to expand to 200 stores this year.</p><p>According to the financial report, the selling, general and administrative expenses of Li Auto in Q1 increased to 5.099 billion yuan from 4.293 billion yuan in the last quarter, a year-on-year increase of 277.7%, precisely due to the increase in marketing and promotional activities, as well as the increase in employee wages and rental expenses as the sales network expanded. Although this is not much compared with 1.2 billion yuan in Nio and 2.62 billion yuan in XPeng, it also shows from the side that the ideal investment in marketing may only be much more in the future.</p><p><b>In addition to promotion, marketing, and boosting sales, Ideal is also planning future products and technologies. Naturally, this also requires a lot of money.</b></p><p>In the next 10 years, Li Auto will launch a variety of products priced between 150,000 and 500,000 around the second-generation extended-range platform, Whale and Shark, two pure-electric platforms. It plans to launch two high-voltage pure-electric vehicles in 2023, and at least two pure-electric vehicles will be launched every year.</p><p>To this end, Li Auto started a rapid enrollment expansion. In February, Li Auto set up an R&D center in Shanghai, and the recruitment started in March, with a scale of more than 2,000 people; Beijing R&D Center is also expanding its enrollment to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Networking and autonomous driving teams are the main teams, among which the number of engineers related to autonomous driving will increase to 600. As of March this year, Ideal has invested 1,633 employees in R&D, which means that the size of R&D team will double by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69071abb27693e5378b1baf86cd3717e\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the prospectus, Li Auto needs a lot of funds for R&D and expansion of production capacity. The reason for the expansion of net loss in 2021 is mainly due to continuous investment in R&D and autonomous driving solutions for future models, as well as the expansion of production facilities and consumption and service networks.</p><p>Li Tie, co-founder and CFO of Li Auto, said that research and development expenses are expected to reach 6 billion yuan per year in the next three years, with more than half of the expenses going to research and development work related to autonomous driving. \"<b>The purpose of financing is to make up for R&D.</b>”</p><p>It can be seen that at present, Ideal's demand for research and development and production of new cars is very urgent, with only 30 billion reserve funds, which pales in comparison with the huge capital expenditure faced in the next few years. Therefore, it needs to be listed in Hong Kong to raise more funds.</p><p><b>Build a car into qualifying</b></p><p>Even with the money on the books now, new car manufacturers have not stepped into the safe zone.</p><p>From the perspective of new products, Wei Xiaoli's products have rarely been launched this year. Only XPeng Automobile has launched a brand-new model P5, while others are mainly selling mid-term facelift models. Even the sales volume that makes them proud, the three combined can't catch up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。</p><p><b>Without sufficient scale, it is difficult for a company to turn from loss to profit.</b></p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that in the case of chip shortage in the whole industry, the monthly sales of start-up car companies performed well month-on-month. However, on the whole, due to the high price of products, the sales volume is mainly concentrated in first-and second-tier cities, and it is difficult for enterprises to effectively expand their sales volume. How to reduce the selling price and adapt to the demand of mainstream automobile consumers is the objective pressure faced by these enterprises.</p><p>In addition, at present, the average age of new car manufacturers is about one and a half years, and their products are generally young, so they are attractive. However, three to four years after the product is launched, it will gradually age. Therefore, the automobile industry has a product update logic of \"one-year minor facelift, two-year mid-term facelift, three-year major facelift and four-five-year replacement\". In the fiercely competitive Chinese market, car companies need to keep updating their models and launching more models to ensure their long-term market competitiveness.</p><p><b>In contrast, Li Auto belongs to a maverick new car manufacturer, whether it is model or technical path. But this choice is a double-edged sword for the ideal.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the single model and extended-range technology route make it possible for Li Auto to open up the new energy market while achieving cost control; But on the other hand, whether the ideal of a single model can win in every future battle becomes a probabilistic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c0f93d5208baa34c58b7065fe44288\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As for the current situation that there is only one extended-range product in Li Auto, Ping An Securities also wrote in relevant research reports, \"In terms of industry trends, extended-range product is not the mainstream of future development. With the decline of battery cost and the improvement of infrastructure construction, the endurance and cost advantages of extended-range vehicles compared with pure electric vehicles may no longer exist, and the growth space of the industry is limited.\"</p><p><b>In the long run, pure electricity is inevitable, and the automotive industry is more willing to see extended range as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution</b>, because adding a fuel engine makes the vehicle less environmentally friendly. Therefore, in terms of policy, hybrid vehicles are also discouraged.</p><p>In 2019, in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid models (including extended-range models) dropped from 10,000 yuan to 8,500 yuan, and then to 6,800 yuan in 2020. While subsidies are decreasing, policy inclusion is also declining. According to the latest regulations in Beijing, potential buyers of extended-range electric vehicles must participate in the lottery to obtain license to purchase licenses; At the beginning of 2021, Shanghai announced that it would no longer give green cards to extended-range electric vehicles starting in January 2023.</p><p>Therefore,<b>The income uncertainty brought by a single model and the risk of policy tightening push Li Auto to complete the R&D and laying of multiple product lines in the shortest time.</b></p><p>At the same time, industry competition is also accelerating. In the past two years, nearly 10 traditional car companies have launched their independent electric high-end car brands to scramble for the track; In Internet technology companies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Baidu, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>After entering the market one after another, Lei Jun bluntly said, \"I will bet everything and fight for Xiaomi cars.\"</p><p>In an interview in May,<b>Li Bin said that from 2019 to 2024, China's automobile industry was in a \"qualifying round\".</b>\"Maybe two games have just been played, and now many powerful peers have come in. This industry is becoming more and more interesting, and the competition is definitely getting fiercer.\"</p><p>Wei Xiaoli's competition for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is not just a matter of money. He Xiaopeng chatted with Li Bin and said, \"<b>We were all sitting at the card table, all in the qualifying round, not yet in the knockout round, not on the card table.</b>”</p><p>The infinite war of new energy has entered 2.0. The game has just begun, and the winner has not yet been decided.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3461c9400040bdfdce3ecdd4882fbed","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W","VIPS":"唯品会"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186654887","content_text":"8月12日，理想汽车总裁沈亚楠在香港上市采访中表示，内部在研讨回归A股可能性。\n香港上市后，李想依然缺钱\n刚刚，理想汽车正式登陆港交所，股票代码为“HK2015”，上市首日平开后随之破发。截止发稿，理想汽车股价116.1港元，跌1.61%，以此计算，理想汽车总市值目前总市值为1984亿人民币。\n至此，美股上市一年后，理想汽车在香港成功完成双重上市，募得资金118亿港元，资金储备将达到约402亿人民币。\n但这些钱，够理想汽车烧么？\n2018年9月12号，李斌刚从纳斯达克上市回来，就召开全员高管会，提醒大家，“现在是我们最危险的时候，因为飞机在起飞的时候就是最危险的。一旦失速，就结束了，一点机会都没有，想滑行都没戏。”\n现实是，上市之后，蔚来依赖外部输血的现状也没改变。据盒饭财经统计，上市至今，蔚来汽车通过股票增发、可转换债券等方式累计融资超28.25亿美元。\n小鹏汽车、理想同样也在积极融资，其中理想汽车仅在一年时间里，就完成股权融资、D轮、战略融资及IPO上市，四轮融资累计超24亿美元；小鹏汽车一年时间内完成了6轮融资，包括美股、港股两地上市，金额约48.8亿美元。\n对于新造车而言，缺钱才是主旋律。相比另外两家，理想汽车显然更缺钱。\n没钱才上市？\n造车新势力，不是在缺钱的路上，就是在找钱的路上。\n5月底，2021款理想ONE发布时，面对当时“二次回港上市”的传闻，李想回应，“钱当然是多多益善。”因为三大造车势力的对手包括特斯拉、小米、百度等新玩家以及传统车企，资金都非常充足。“理想汽车不介意以任何一种方式获得资金储备，包含从二级市场融资，银行贷款和发债。”\n彼时，据36氪消息，理想汽车已经悄悄向港交所递交了上市申请，计划以双重上市的方式，回港上市。\n相较于去年美股上市时，招股书披露的理想汽车持有现金、现金等价物以及受限制现金共14.3亿元，这次回港上市，截止2021年7月20日，理想汽车现金储备达到303.6亿元，时隔一年，理想真的富裕了很多，但对于尚未完全实现自我“造血”能力的理想汽车，这些钱，仍然不够烧。\n从招股书可以看到，理想汽车的日子过得并不理想。\n2018年到2020年，理想净亏损分别为15.32亿元、24.38亿元、1.52亿元，累计亏损41.22亿元。相较于前两年，2020年的理想汽车得益于毛利率转正，亏损有所收窄，但到了今年Q1，亏损进一步扩大至3.6亿元，这一数字超过了去年全年理想亏损的总和。\n\n理想指出，亏损原因主要来自对研发的投入和自动驾驶方案的投资，另外还受到自建工厂和大幅增长的营销支出拖累。\n造车是一门多费钱的生意？\n李斌有个200亿门槛的说法，被多次引述，但在后来者何小鹏看来，这只是入门级别，造车完成了从0到1，但从1到100的过程中，“在全球化、科技创新、组织等方面， 所需的钱肯定超过300亿元，所有人都要多备粮草。”\n也就是说，500亿元才是一个新造车企业能够存活的标准，在自己仍无法规模化盈利的情况下，即便是稍微跑在前面的蔚来，当前也要依赖外部融资，理想汽车更不例外。\n\n于是，在美股上市后，蔚来、理想、小鹏汽车还在锲而不舍地寻求各种融资新手段，增发、配股和可转换债券先后登场：\n去年1月份，蔚来一个月内完成两次，共计近30亿元的可转债融资，年底，蔚来还在另外两次增发中募资17.3亿美元和26.5亿美元；\n去年12月，小鹏增发募资21.6亿美元，成为中概股史上最大规模的首次股票增发；\n同月，理想增发募资获得13.63亿美元。\n造车新势力的三大巨头，对资金的渴求，动作说明了一切。\n然而，这些融资渠道还不够多，而且有蔚来汽车美股上市后，仍一度濒临破产的教训在前，公司在没有实现稳定盈利之前，仍然要警惕现金流危机。\n因此，他们瞄准了香港，理想、小鹏都希望抢用双重上市的方式赴港IPO。小鹏汽车抢先一步，7月7日，小鹏汽车在港交所挂牌上市，募资到约140亿港元，成为港股2021年至今集资规模第五大新股。\n目前中概股回归港股的途径主要有三种：在美股私有化退市后赴港上市，二次上市以及双重上市。\n三年前，港交所启动25年以来的最大机制改革，引入同股不同权、对未有收入的生物科技公司打开通道，改革了二次上市的规定，自2018年4月起，允许“新经济”中概股赴港二次上市。\n2019年，阿里巴巴以1021亿港元摘下当年港股募资额桂冠之后，中概股回港二次上市的热情彻底被点燃，随后以百度、携程、网易为代表的一系列中概股纷纷回流。\n但在香港二次上市，公司必须已在合资格交易所（纽交所、纳斯达克或者伦敦证券交易所）上市，而且还要有至少两个完整会计年度期间保持良好的合规记录。\n显然，上市仅一年的理想和小鹏汽车都不满足这一基本要求，所以只能选择以“双重主要市场”的方式赴港上市募资。而相较于二次上市，双重上市更为严格，不仅要受到包括SEC的监管，还要面对香港证券和期货事务监察委员会（SFC）的共同监管。但它的优势也在于，由于两地都是第一上市地，如果公司在美国遭遇退市，其香港市场的上市地位不受影响。\n据财新报道：这一模式比第二上市难度更高，港交所问的问题都细得像针尖，申请资料要准备得非常详细。自2018年港交所上市制度改革以来，鲜有大型中概股以双重上市的形式登陆港股。上一次采用此方式上市的中概股是百济神州，其在2018年7月在香港上市。\n理想汽车对国内资金的重视，可见一斑。\n当然，除了客观上的要求，小鹏汽车迎难而上，还有其他考量。\n中南财经政法大学数字经济研究院执行院长盘和林认为，从宏观来看，当前美股对中概股的信息诉求在提升，未来可能限制中概股在美股的融资，此时在港股融资，保留一个融资渠道对于三大新造车势力这样尚未实现盈利、需要继续往里面投钱烧钱的企业来说，是非常有必要的。融资渠道不畅对于新造车势力来说会导致企业流动性危机。\n全球咨询公司艾睿铂驻上海董事总经理兼亚太区汽车行业和工业负责人戴加辉，也有同样的看法，他认为，尚未实现盈利的公司仍需要大量烧钱运营，有些公司此前经历过现金流短缺的危机，储备资金也是为了预防类似情况再度发生。\n缺钱造车，造车缺钱\n还没实现盈利，造车事业却依旧烧钱。\n其中研发投入占比最大。根据蔚来、小鹏、理想披露的2020年财报，其在研发上的投入分别占全年营收的15%、29.52%和11.62%。\n小鹏汽车招股书显示，小鹏在港股预计最高募资总额约124亿元。其中，45%（约56.3亿元）的资金要投入到丰富产品组合与开发新技术上。\n理想汽车招股书显示，2018年到2021年Q1，其在研发累计投入约36亿元，其中仅在今年Q1，研发支出5.145亿元，在总收入的占比达到 14.4%。\n\n但这个研发费用，对新能源车企而言无疑是偏低的，对比蔚来和小鹏汽车，截至今年Q1，蔚来研发投入超过115亿元，小鹏汽车投入53.8亿元。研发投入上的节俭，一方面是理想内部极强的成本控制，当然也与其3年仅生产一款车型，没有过多地方投入有关。\n理想汽车成立至今，仅有一款量产车型理想ONE；而蔚来有ES6、ES8、EC6、ET7四款车型；小鹏汽车有G3、P5、P7三款车型，小鹏G3i也即将上市。\n但造车运动走到2021年，还一味追求运营效率，已经无法与其他车企形成抗争了。2025年，中国智能电动车市场将迎来拐点，届时整个市场的规模将达到800万台，淘汰赛也将在那时开始。\n因此，理想汽车现在也开始把重心移向速度和规模，并在今年2月，公布了2025战略，目标是要取得20%的市场份额，卖出160万台车。\n不过，从当前来看，产品不够丰富，可能会成为理想完成160万销量目标的最大阻碍。因此，理想开始围绕营销想办法，当然，这需要投入很多钱。\n据《晚点LatePost》报道：理想ONE的受众群，过去锁定在年收入30 万以上的中产收入家庭，过去理想的策略是以这个人群为目标，在抖音等渠道做内容营销。而现在，为了触达更多群体，理想开始投放早晚高峰交通广播。\n此外，为了提升Q1销量，理想3月举办了一次促销，推出首付一半、两年免息的金融方案，相当于为用户贴了2年利息。促销海报上的截止日期是3月，但活动一直持续到了4月。\n同时，线下渠道也在快速扩张。去年6月，李想曾在湖畔大学的访谈中透露，一个城市有没有理想汽车门店，市场占有率相差8倍。意识到这一点后，他把当年的开店目标从20家增加到60家，“我们可以只开20家店，达到今年的原定目标，但如果对手增长是2倍，相当于你是负增长。” 李想解释称。\n2025年卖160万台的新目标制定后，理想计划今年把门店扩张到200家。\n财报显示，Q1理想汽车的销售、一般和管理费用从上个季度的42.93亿元上升到50.99亿元，同比增长277.7%，原因正是由于营销、促销活动增加，以及随着销售网络扩大，员工工资和租金支出也有所增加。尽管这和蔚来的12亿元、小鹏的26.2亿元相比并不算多，但这也从侧面说明，理想在营销上的投入，未来可能只多不少。\n促销，营销，提升销量之外，理想也在规划未来的产品和技术，自然，这也需要很多钱。\n未来10年，理想汽车围绕二代增程式平台、Whale 和 Shark 两个纯电动平台，推出定价在 15 万~ 50 万之间的多款产品，并计划在2023年推出两款高压纯电动汽车，并且每年都至少推出两款纯电动汽车。\n为此，理想汽车开启了急速扩招，2月份，理想汽车在上海设立研发中心，3月份招聘已经启动，规模超过2000人；北京研发中心也在扩招，以智能网联、自动驾驶团队为主，其中自动驾驶相关的工程师将增加到600人。截至今年3月，理想在研发上已经投入了1633名员工，这意味着到年底研发团队规模会实现翻倍。\n\n招股书披露，理想汽车需要大量的资金来进行研发、扩大产能，2021年净亏损扩大的原因也主要是持续投资未来车型的研发和自动驾驶解决方案，还有生产设施及消费、服务网络的扩张。\n理想汽车联合创始人兼CFO李铁表示，预计在未来三年，研发费用将达到每年60亿元人民币，其中超过一半的费用都将用于自动驾驶相关的研发工作。“融资的目的就是要把研发补上。”\n可见，当下理想在新车上的研发和投产上的需求非常急迫，仅300亿的储备资金，与未来几年面对的庞大资金支出相比，相形见绌。也因此，它非常需要在香港上市，来募集更多资金。\n造车进入资格赛\n即便现在账上资金富裕，新造车企业也并没有踏入安全区。\n从新品来看，今年蔚小理的产品上市动作很少，只有小鹏汽车推出了一款全新车型P5，其他都是以销售中期改款车型为主。即便是让他们骄傲的销量，三家加起来也追不上特斯拉。\n没有足够的规模，公司就很难由亏转盈。\n全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树称，在全行业芯片短缺的情况下，初创车企月度销量环比表现优秀。但从整体看，由于产品价格偏高，销量主要集中在一二线城市，企业销量难以有效做大。如何降低售价、适应主流汽车消费者需求，是这些企业面临的客观压力。\n此外，当前新造车企业的车型年龄平均都在一年半左右，产品普遍年轻，所以吸引人。但在产品推出三到四年后，会逐渐老化，也因此汽车行业有着“一年小改款，两年中期改款，三年大改款，四五年换代”的产品更新逻辑。在竞争激烈的中国市场，车企需要不停更新车型、投放更多车型，才能保证长期的市场竞争力。\n对比来看，无论是车型，还是技术路径，理想汽车都属于特立独行的一家新造车企业。但这种选择对理想来说，是把双刃剑。\n一方面，单一车型和增程式技术路线，让理想汽车打开新能源市场的同时，还能实现成本控制成为可能；但另一方面，只靠单一车型的理想，能否在今后的每一次战役中都取得胜利，成为一个概率事件。\n\n对于理想汽车目前只有一个增程式产品的现状，平安证券也在相关研报中写到，“在行业趋势方面，增程式并非未来发展的主流，随着电池成本的下降和基础设施建设的完善，增程式汽车目前相对于纯电车的续航和成本优势或将不复存在，行业增长空间有限。”\n长远来看，纯电是必然，汽车行业也更愿意将增程式视为过渡方案，而不是终极方案，因为加入燃油发动机会让车辆变得不再环保。所以，在政策上，混合动力汽车也多不被鼓励。\n2019年，新能源汽车补贴政策中，插电式混和动力车型（含增程式）的补贴金额从1万元，下降到8500元，2020年又降到6800元。补贴减少的同时，政策包容度也在下降。北京市最新规定，增程式电动车潜在购买者必须参加摇号获得购牌许可；2021年初，上海市宣布从2023年1月开始不再给增程式电动汽车绿牌。\n因此，单一车型带来的收入不确定性，和政策收紧的风险，都推动理想汽车必须在最短时间内完成多条产品线的研发和铺设。\n与此同时，行业竞争也在加速。过去两年，近10家传统车企纷纷推出旗下独立的电动高端汽车品牌，抢注赛道；互联网科技公司里，苹果、百度、小米、索尼先后入场，雷军直言“会押上所有，为小米汽车而战。”\n在5月的一场访谈对话中，李斌称，2019年至2024年，中国汽车行业都处在“资格赛”中。“可能刚刚比赛了两局，现在又进来很多有实力的同行，这个行业越来越有意思，竞争肯定越来越激烈。”\n蔚小理竞逐港交所，也不只是钱的事。何小鹏跟李斌聊天时说：“我们都坐在牌桌边，都正在资格赛里面，还没有到淘汰赛，还没上牌桌。”\n新能源的无限战争，进入2.0，游戏刚刚开始，胜负还未分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9,"VIPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895827421,"gmtCreate":1628734639163,"gmtModify":1676529836213,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895827421","repostId":"1132498190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132498190","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628734545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132498190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Deja Vu? US Pressures OPEC to Increase Production, Will Oil Prices Like Three Years ago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132498190","media":"第一财经","summary":"2018年四季度，美国前总统特朗普的言论一度让国际油价短时间下跌超40%。\n\n当地时间周三，美国政府呼吁石油输出国组织（OPEC）及其石油生产盟友提高产量，以限制国内不断攀升的汽油价格。受此影响，国际","content":"<p><div>In the fourth quarter of 2018, former US President Trump's remarks once caused the international oil price to fall by more than 40% in a short time. On Wednesday local time, the U.S. government called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its oil-producing allies to increase production to limit rising gasoline prices at home. Affected by this, the international oil price once plunged by nearly 2% in the intraday session, and Brent oil briefly fell below the $70 mark. Faced with pressure, how will the alliance of oil-producing countries, which has just announced its plan to increase production, respond? Will international oil prices repeat what they did three years ago? U.S. energy prices rise all the way up U.S. President Joe Biden said in a speech at the White House on Wednesday: \"...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101138385.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Deja Vu? US Pressures OPEC to Increase Production, Will Oil Prices Like Three Years ago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDeja Vu? US Pressures OPEC to Increase Production, Will Oil Prices Like Three Years ago\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>In the fourth quarter of 2018, former US President Trump's remarks once caused the international oil price to fall by more than 40% in a short time. On Wednesday local time, the U.S. government called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its oil-producing allies to increase production to limit rising gasoline prices at home. Affected by this, the international oil price once plunged by nearly 2% in the intraday session, and Brent oil briefly fell below the $70 mark. Faced with pressure, how will the alliance of oil-producing countries, which has just announced its plan to increase production, respond? Will international oil prices repeat what they did three years ago? U.S. energy prices rise all the way up U.S. President Joe Biden said in a speech at the White House on Wednesday: \"...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101138385.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101138385.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d6840b943ab4974de9747e3cb4fa9e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101138385.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132498190","content_text":"2018年四季度，美国前总统特朗普的言论一度让国际油价短时间下跌超40%。\n\n当地时间周三，美国政府呼吁石油输出国组织（OPEC）及其石油生产盟友提高产量，以限制国内不断攀升的汽油价格。受此影响，国际油价盘中一度跳水近2%，布油短暂失守70美元关口。\n面对压力，此前刚宣布增产计划的产油国联盟会如何应对？国际油价是否会重演三年前的一幕？\n美国能源价格一路上涨\n美国总统拜登周三在白宫发表讲话时说：“最近，我们看到石油公司为每桶石油支付的价格开始下降，但更多美国人在加油站的汽油价格没有下降。这不是你在竞争激烈的市场中所期望的。我想确保没有任何东西能够阻止油价下跌，从而降低消费者的价格。”\n稍早前美国媒体报道称，美国政府官员本周与OPEC领导人、沙特以及阿联酋等其他OPEC成员国的代表进行了会谈。白宫方面表示，OPEC+ 达成的8月起增产40万桶/日以及延长减产协议在全球复苏的关键时刻是远远不够的。美国国家安全顾问沙利文（Jake Sullivan）在声明中称，正与OPEC+成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行磋商。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，产油国联盟必须采取更多措施支持复苏。如果不加以控制，汽油价格上涨可能会损害正在进行的全球复苏。\n美国汽车协会的数据显示，今年5月全美汽油平均水平自2014年以来首次突破3美元大关，本周二全美平均每加仑汽油价格为3.186美元，在过去的一年里上涨了超过1美元。本周美国能源信息署(EIA)上调了2021年燃料需求预测，并表示5~7月的消费量高于预期。\n根据此前美国劳工部公布的报告，7月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨5.4%，其中能源价格同比上升41.8%，成为推高物价的重要因素。“总统认识到能源价格会给家庭预算带来压力。”一位要求不透露姓名的白宫高级官员说，“他坦率地谈论了这个问题。希望他的政府使用一切工具来帮助解决能源成本问题，帮助降低价格。”\n\n美国联邦贸易委员会被要求密切监控汽油市场\n据悉，美国政府已经要求联邦贸易委员会（FTC） 密切监控美国汽油市场 ，并处理可能导致成品油价格上涨的任何非法行为。美国国家经济委员会主任迪斯（Brian Deese）给联邦贸易委员会的信中，敦促监管机构调查导致能源价格上涨的因素，“凭借监控行业价格、审查并购活动、进行市场研究、调查市场操纵和反竞争行为的一整套工具，联邦贸易委员会完全有能力领导评估美国汽油市场的情况，并采取任何必要措施解决问题。”信中说。\n油价走势会历史重演吗\n2018年前三季度，国际油价势如破竹上涨超20%，当时外界对美国制裁伊朗可能导致供应缺口的担忧令原油一路震荡上行。2018年10月初，时任美国总统特朗普透露他曾经暗示过沙特国王萨勒曼，美国可能会撤回对沙特的军事保护，彼时美国汽油价格较前一年同期上涨了近12%，共和党担心油价可能影响即将到来的中期选举选情。\n美国对沙特的威胁起到了作用，不止是沙特，事实上众多中东产油国也正享受着美国的军事保护。国际油价随后快速跳水，同年12月甚至刷新了1974年以来最长下跌纪录12连阴，时任沙特能源部长法利赫（Khalid Al-Falih）曾表示，沙特计划当月减产50万桶。特朗普随后通过社交媒体发声，希望OPEC不要削减石油产量，短短两个半月时间两大原油期货重挫近45%，直到OPEC最终达成减产协议才止跌企稳。\n去年OPEC+能达成新一轮减产协议也和特朗普有关，因为疫情导致国际油价暴跌，全球能源行业遭到重创，其中也包括近几年兴起的页岩油业，他与沙特王储和俄罗斯总统普京进行了通话，促成了5月起首轮两个月970万桶/日的协议。\n\n随着经济复苏和消费需求回升，如今国际油价重新回到了2018年的高位\n随着经济复苏和消费需求回升，如今国际油价重新回到了2018年的高位，形势也与三年前有相似之处，物价压力正在对美国经济复苏形成潜在威胁。在经过数轮放松减产配额后，目前OPEC+计划在明年9月前逐步释放570万桶/日的产能，美国政府无疑希望时间表可以大幅提前。然而产油国对增产的态度整体偏谨慎。OPEC+部长级会议在今年会议中多次强调疫情对能源需求的潜在影响。\n原油经纪商PVM Oil Associates高级市场分析师瓦尔加（Tamas Varga）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，随着“德尔塔”变异毒株在全球快速传播，OPEC目前仍在石油供应方面掌握着局面，可以根据实际情况调整生产计划，增产对油价的潜在影响并不符合各国的利益。\n与此同时，各大能源巨头也放缓了油气开发的步伐。从埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、荷兰皇家壳牌、道达尔发布的最新季报看，虽然整体盈利较去年同期大幅上升，资本开支计划并未随之增长。瓦尔加认为，经历了前几年惨淡的股价表现后，能源公司试图赢回投资者的信心。它们短期内不会全力投入新增产能，而是利用油价上涨带来的收益重振资产负债表，偿还债务并将现金返还股东，同时为未来转型争取时间。\n有分析认为，这一次美国政府的喊话能够起到多少效果还有待观察，目前其手中还握有伊核协议问题这张王牌，涉及超过100万桶伊朗原油何时回归国际市场，那么，接下来拜登会何时打出这张牌？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892323289,"gmtCreate":1628640094641,"gmtModify":1676529803604,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088869543384780","idStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/892323289","repostId":"2158477512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158477512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628607618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158477512?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 23:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"No.1 in the world for three years! Lei Jun is ambitious, but it also expresses bitterness and bitterness","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158477512","media":"上海证券报 ","summary":"最惨的时候是什么？在与孟京辉的对话中，雷军说是上市第一天，都抱着至少涨一倍的心态，结果破发了。\n8月10日19：30，小米集团创始人、董事长雷军举办年度演讲，主题是：我的梦想，我的选择。\n当前任务：站","content":"<p><div>What's the worst time? In the dialogue with Meng Jinghui, Lei Jun said that it was the first day of listing, and all of them had the mentality of at least doubling, and the result broke. At 19: 30 on August 10th, Lei Jun, founder and chairman of Xiaomi Group, held an annual speech with the theme: My dream, my choice. Current task: Stay firm in the second place in the world On August 2nd, Xiaomi Group ranked 338th in the Fortune Global 500 list, up 84 places compared with the previous year. On July 16, Canalys released its second-quarter global smartphone shipment ranking, with Xiaomi surpassing Apple for the first time with a 17% share...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7jGw4KWClLzuNkgfruZn0A\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No.1 in the world for three years! Lei Jun is ambitious, but it also expresses bitterness and bitterness</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo.1 in the world for three years! Lei Jun is ambitious, but it also expresses bitterness and bitterness\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>What's the worst time? In the dialogue with Meng Jinghui, Lei Jun said that it was the first day of listing, and all of them had the mentality of at least doubling, and the result broke. At 19: 30 on August 10th, Lei Jun, founder and chairman of Xiaomi Group, held an annual speech with the theme: My dream, my choice. Current task: Stay firm in the second place in the world On August 2nd, Xiaomi Group ranked 338th in the Fortune Global 500 list, up 84 places compared with the previous year. On July 16, Canalys released its second-quarter global smartphone shipment ranking, with Xiaomi surpassing Apple for the first time with a 17% share...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7jGw4KWClLzuNkgfruZn0A\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7jGw4KWClLzuNkgfruZn0A\">上海证券报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac594966084e4f169f7ea5a5e05816a5","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7jGw4KWClLzuNkgfruZn0A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158477512","content_text":"最惨的时候是什么？在与孟京辉的对话中，雷军说是上市第一天，都抱着至少涨一倍的心态，结果破发了。\n8月10日19：30，小米集团创始人、董事长雷军举办年度演讲，主题是：我的梦想，我的选择。\n当前任务：站稳全球第二\n8月2日，小米集团登上了《财富》世界500强榜单的第338位，相较上一年排名大幅上升了84名。7月16日，Canalys发布第二季度全球智能手机出货量排名，小米凭借17%的份额超越苹果首次跻身全球第二，同比高速增长83%。财报显示，2020年小米营收达到2459亿元，同比增长19.4%。2021年第一季度，小米营收达769亿元，同比增长54.7%；经调整净利润达到61亿元，同比增长163.8%。\n雷军说，尽管取得了这些成绩，但小米还是一家年轻的公司，要看到与世界巨头的差距，夯实业务稳扎稳打。“我们当前的任务就是：站稳全球第二。下一步目标是：三年全球第一。”上市破发躲进港交所杂物间\n2018年7月9日，小米港交所上市敲钟，遭遇股价破发，雷军说自己很不好意思，最终躲进了港交所的一个杂物间。但在当天的晚宴中，他还是鼓励大家要好好干。“我们一定要努力工作，不能亏别人的钱。”雷军当时说：“今天破发，我对不住大家了。我们会努力工作，一定要让IPO投资者至少赚一倍！”雷军还回忆了小米股价腰斩的时候：“2019年9月2日，小米集团港股股价跌到8.28港元的时候，跟IPO价格比已经腰斩，当时跌到几乎所有人都快崩溃了，甚至有人认为还会跌到4港元。在那段时间里，我特别不愿意见投资者，有一个投资者执意要见我，一坐下来，只寒暄了几句，他就毫不客气地说，你们怎么让我赔了这么多钱，我真的不知道你们怎么干的，接着，他从小米的战略，到小米的产品、再到小米的管理，把我当小学生一样训了一个多小时，我当时的衬衣都湿了，会后，我一个人坐在会议室，坐了很久，那一刻，我特别绝望。”\n尽管曾质疑“资本市场为什么不认可小米”，但雷军还是选择“最好的投资就是投资自己”，并决定用36亿港币回购股票。\n2021年1月4日，小米股价达到34港元，雷军说：“当年上市晚宴上吹过的牛终于兑现了。”\n突破高端 相信米粉\n雷军说，小米要成为真正伟大的公司，必须突破高端。\n小米手机第一代就是从高端开始起步。为平衡原材料和巨额研发费用等多方面挑战，小米10的定价必须过 4000元，销量也必须过 200万台。2020年，筹备已久的小米10在疫情期间发布，截至今天，小米10系列累计销量已达 577万台，小米10S仍在热销中。\n雷军说，小米10的成功来自于“相信米粉”。在全国1亿多小米手机用户，有没有2%的用户相信我们，愿意给我们一次机会呢？只要把产品做好，一定会有。小米MIX 4正式发布\n2016年10月25日，小米MIX全面屏概念手机，让手机行业正式进入全面屏时代。2021年8月10日晚，被誉为“面向未来的全面屏手机”的小米MIX4正式发布，定价4999元起。\n这款手机还采用了最新的石墨烯均温板，限制能耗、控制发热，满足日常使用，由小米产业投资部门所投资的公司提供技术支持。\n此外雷军强调，小米MIX4高度重视安全，特别升级的“防丢失功能”将手机与SIM卡深度绑定。丢失后，无法强行关机，有密码才行；丢失后，持续定位，就算拔卡也没用；并且支持隐私数据的远程一键清空。CUP全面屏，将摄像头隐藏在屏幕之下\n①创新显示技术：微钻排列，重设电路布局，采用透明引线，提高屏幕透光度\n②100%全像素显示，400 PPI的精度，呈现完美显示效果\n③20MP屏下前置相机，加入AI图像增强算法，优化自拍效果\n谈及金山，一个“不理智”的决定在演讲中，雷军说到个人的艰难决定时，特别提到了金山的创业进程。2011年，金山遭遇了巨大危机，期待雷军回归。但当时正值小米创业最关键的时刻，小米手机发布在即。\n两难之下，雷军选择毅然接手金山，做了这个“不理智的决定”，小米联合创始人们也全力支持。今年是雷军接任第10年，金山已脱胎换骨，年收入增长超过 11 倍。\n值得一提的是，10日晚最新出的小米平板5也与金山有深度合作。雷军表示，小米平板的目标是：年底适配2000个应用。因此雷军现场“求合作”。\n现场来了一只“狗”\n当晚，小米第一代仿生四足机器人CyberDog（铁蛋）正式亮相，搭载高精度环境感知系统，全身11个高精度传感器向AI大脑实时传输信息，让Ta可以感知图像、光线、距离、速度、声音等环境信息，还原更真实的生物反应。\n仿生四足机器人基于全球开源社区进行自研创新，集小米软硬件研发能力与一身：自研高性能电机，加持小米的AI视觉语音算法、机器人系统以及运动算法的研发积淀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":891177608,"gmtCreate":1628370670004,"gmtModify":1703505393219,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?Good&nbsp;","listText":"?Good&nbsp;","text":"?Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891177608","repostId":"1135602522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813507661,"gmtCreate":1630210465453,"gmtModify":1676530244567,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813507661","repostId":"2163079626","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2163079626","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630200486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2163079626?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163079626","media":"Reuters","summary":"Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvi","content":"<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's</p><p>  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources. </p><p>   E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.</p><p>   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.</p><p>   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. </p><p>   Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said.</p><p> (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)</p><p>((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Musk signals concerns over Nvidia deal for UK chip maker -The Telegraph\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-29 09:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's</p><p>  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources. </p><p>   E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.</p><p>   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.</p><p>   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. </p><p>   Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said.</p><p> (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)</p><p>((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163079626","content_text":"Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc    Chief Executive Elon Musk has signaled competition concerns over Nvidia Corp's  planned purchase of British chip designer Arm, the Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources.    E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc    and smartphone maker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd    have also lodged opposition to the deal with U.S. authorities, the newspaper reported.   Earlier this year, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened an in-depth probe into the takeover.   The probe findings are expected in the coming weeks, according to the newspaper.   Tesla, Amazon, Samsung and Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.    Nvidia is likely to seek European Union antitrust approval for the $54 billion purchase of Arm early next month, with regulators expected to launch a full-scale investigation after a preliminary review, people familiar with the matter have said. (Reporting by Aishwarya Nair in Bengaluru)((Aishwarya.Nair@thomsonreuters.com; +91-8067494421;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831492629,"gmtCreate":1629339052461,"gmtModify":1676530007494,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831492629","repostId":"1168385577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168385577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629337898,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168385577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168385577","media":"深燃","summary":"L5级无人驾驶车辆什么时候能大规模量产，还没有人能给出准确答案。不过，汽车机器人已经亮相了。\n在8月18日召开的“百度世界大会2021”上，百度展示了全球首款L5级自动驾驶汽车机器人。“未来机器人的主","content":"<p>No one can give an accurate answer to when L5 driverless vehicles will be mass-produced. However, the car<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Already unveiled.</p><p>On August 18, the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>At the World Congress 2021 \", Baidu showed off the world's first L5 autonomous car robot. \"The main form of future robots is automotive robots,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Cars are becoming more and more like robots, \"which is Baidu's judgment on the future direction of automobile development.</p><p>Travel is the key word of this Baidu World Congress, and autonomous driving is also one of the most noteworthy businesses in Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report recently released. Baidu disclosed that its Apollo ACE intelligent transportation has tens of millions of orders covering more than 20 cities. Robin Li, chairman and CEO of Baidu, also said that Baidu Robotaxi (self-driving taxi service) will be profitable by 2025 at the earliest.</p><p>Some people think that Baidu is targeting the trillion-dollar market behind Robotaxi. IHS, the world's authoritative research consultancy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>A recently released report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% market share.</p><p>Who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track? Does the emergence of \"car robots\" mean that the unmanned version of the online car-hailing war started ahead of schedule? With the commercialization of Baidu's AI business, especially Apollo-related business, is the capital market willing to give Baidu a more positive valuation? This article attempts to answer these questions.</p><p><b>Baidu \"Run Fast\"</b></p><p>What is it like to hit a \"real\" driverless car?</p><p>At the \"Baidu World Conference 2021\", Robin Li took the host Sa Beining to experience it and sat on Baidu Apollo \"car robot\". It has no steering wheel or pedals, and has L5 autonomous driving capability, without the need for human driving.</p><p>According to the official introduction, Apollo car robot knows how to communicate and learn, can analyze the potential needs of users, and actively provide services in various scenarios. The internal and external designs of \"robot\" are very futuristic, with intelligent configurations such as super-large curved screen and intelligent console. Sa Beining described entering the car as if you were in a private cinema.</p><p>In the same space, Li used two photos taken on New York's Fifth Avenue (1900 and 1913) to tell that \"it only took 13 years for cars to replace horse-drawn carriages as the mainstream means of transportation.\" A hundred years later, the number of cars in the Chinese market alone has reached 292 million (as of June 2021), and the number of cars worldwide has exceeded 700 million.</p><p>How many years will it take from the emergence of \"car robots\" to the popularization of unmanned vehicles?</p><p>Baidu now uses a car robot and a travel platform to tell the outside world that commercialization can be faster and the cycle can be shorter.</p><p>On the same day, Baidu also released the unmanned vehicle travel service platform \"Radish (from the transliteration of Robot) Run\", which is equivalent to the brand upgrade of Apollo Go. It continues to introduce unmanned vehicle travel services to the public, and plans to land in 30 cities within three years.</p><p>Nowadays, autonomous driving has gradually become an industry consensus in the second half. According to the IHS Markit report, the total market size of shared mobility in China will reach 2.25 trillion by 2030, with a compound growth rate of between 20%-28%. Among them, Robotaxi will account for 60%, with a scale of 1.3 trillion yuan.</p><p>Essence Securities has measured the market size of domestic Robotaxi with the formula of \"market size = total passenger mileage * penetration rate * unit price\": in 2030, the total domestic passenger mileage is expected to reach 10 trillion kilometers, and the penetration rate of Robotaxi is expected to reach 6%-22% (refer to McKinsey's Outlook of Autonomous Driving Industry under the New Normal). The unit price is 2 yuan/km. On the whole, the travel market brought by Robotaxi is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion-4.4 trillion yuan in 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92eed31529ef484a2b8d766a800f254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"805\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Qi Su, an insider in the industry, commented that obviously, Baidu is aiming at the trillion market space behind Robotaxi, and now it is going to \"run fast\".</p><p>IHS Markit report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% of the market share. Only giant enterprises with deep involvement now can occupy a favorable position in the competition in the next decade. Baidu's advanced layout and leading position in the Internet of Vehicles and ADAS markets will bring important first-mover advantages to Robotaxi competition.</p><p>The report also mentioned that judging from the current technological development trend, the short-term assembly cost of L4 is still the main bottleneck of development. Baidu recently disclosed that its fifth-generation shared unmanned vehicle Apollo Moon currently reaches the L4 standard, and the cost of this vehicle is about one-third of that of similar vehicles in the industry, which is about 480,000 yuan. Robin Li revealed on the 2021Q2 earnings call that when there are 50 million orders per day, the cost of Robotaxi will be 1/5 of what it is now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e95b1a2242f5dd0778c07a434d63203e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Various factors are bound to accelerate the industry's commercialization exploration of Robotaxi and enhance the market space.</p><p><b>To preempt the Robotaxi era, you need three customs clearance cards</b></p><p>Then the question is, who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track.</p><p>In this track, there are now four forces: travel service platforms, technology companies, car factories and autonomous driving start-ups, each of which has its own strengths in technical fields such as algorithms and data. However, unlike other industries, the networked operation of Robotaxi is more complicated. Getting the ticket requires at least three customs clearance cards: technology, travel network and car building.</p><p>Technology, is the first customs clearance card. Only by meeting the requirements of the technical threshold of L4-level autonomous driving, having the ability to remove safety officers and solve the long tail problem can we eliminate the driver's salary (accounting for about 70%), the most important operating cost of online car-hailing at this stage, and the business model can be completely run through.</p><p>At present, the players who are exploring L4 Robotaxi technology are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>, Baidu, as well as AutoX, Pony.ai, WeRide, Yuanrong Qixing, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c514732da345add90a3bdc603a0d93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second customs clearance card is to have enough operational data and market size. Only big platform companies have these two points at the same time.</p><p>The competition between Baidu and Didi in China is the fiercest. On April 19th last year, Baidu officially opened Robotaxi service to all citizens in Changsha, followed closely by Didi, which announced on June 27th that it would launch a large-scale trial operation of Robotaxi in Jiading, Shanghai, which would be open to all the public in Shanghai. From Baidu to Didi, from Guangzhou, Changsha to Shanghai, domestic autonomous driving head enterprises have made efforts one after another, so that domestic Robotaxi will enter the stage of large-scale operation in 2020.</p><p>Guosheng Securities believes that whoever has the strongest shared travel network has a better chance of winning. Didi has 377 million domestic taxi users, an average daily order of 25 million in China, accounting for 81% of the taxi market share, and has the largest after-service market such as charging network in China, and sufficient B-end resources such as car companies and car rental companies. The conclusion is that when the technical difference is not big enough, Didi's moat is the mind of C-end users and the service network of B-end.</p><p>However, in terms of large-scale operation of unmanned vehicle services, Baidu has made faster progress. Up to now, Baidu has covered the largest number of cities, and has conducted Robotaxi tests in more than 27 cities around the world, with the largest fleet size, reaching 500 vehicles.</p><p>Recently, Didi, a traditional shared travel service provider, is also supplying its technical capabilities. In April this year, it released the first five-hour takeover-free driving video in the world, and it is possible to compete with Baidu on Robotaxi service in the future.</p><p>Building a car is the third customs clearance card, and it is also a corner overtaking card. To a certain extent, the scale advantage of the supply side determines the choice of users on the demand side. In the traditional shared travel era, Didi has a great advantage on the user side, which means that in the Robotaxi era, whoever has enough autonomous vehicles on the supply side is on the offensive in the competition.</p><p>In November last year, Didi United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The customized online car-hailing D1 model was launched. As of May this year, Didi D1 has exceeded 1,000 units in Ningbo. In March this year, Baidu announced that it would \"join hands\" with Geely to build a car and set up its car brand Jidu. According to reports, it will take about three years to achieve mass production.</p><p>Guosheng Securities said that future head competitors, such as Baidu and even Huawei, which said it would not do Robotaxi for the time being, own most autonomous vehicles on the market through car building or cooperation with car companies. If they can grasp the supply side and push Robotaxi taxi business in the future, it will not be difficult to overtake Didi.</p><p>In the final analysis, the core of the competition of Robotaxi players is not only the need of three customs clearance cards, but also the overall test of technology, capital and business ecology.</p><p>IHS Markit's view is that Baidu has advantages in traffic ecology and cutting-edge technical capabilities. The former means that Baidu has Baidu Map and mobile ecology to provide the traffic base, while the latter means that in the overall autonomous driving assistance market, with the launch of Baidu Apollo pilot assisted driving AVP and autonomous parking ANP solutions, and the continuous growth of Baidu Apollo ecological partner alliance, it is estimated that the overall capacity and market size of Apollo autonomous driving service will reach about 38% in 2030. With the overall car link penetration rate increasing to 100%, the market share of Xiaodu Assistant Car Edition in the overall market is expected to reach 40% by 2030.</p><p><b>Is Apollo the biggest variable in Baidu's valuation?</b></p><p>For a long time, many brokers have fluctuated greatly in the valuation of Baidu, especially intelligent driving in its frontier business. Questioners are generally bad because of the monetization problem of the industry, while optimistic people compare it to \"Android in the automobile industry\", thinking that it is expected to become the primary scene for AI to be widely implemented in to C, and even commercialized through to B, to G and to C multiple modes. In fact, the commercialization progress and due valuation of Baidu's intelligent driving business continue to change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de2f890256cf8d590c9ae84c164458e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Autonomous driving test kilometers represent data capability, which is an important criterion for evaluating the value of autonomous driving enterprises.</p><p>Among the same type of enterprises,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Waymo far outpaced other rivals with 32 million kilometres tested (as of September 2020). The test mileage of Baidu's Apollo autonomous travel service as of December 2020 was 7 million kilometers, ranking second. By the first half of 2021, this figure had exceeded 14 million kilometers.</p><p>According to this growth rate and the loosening of regulatory ties, such as testing at night, Baidu's annual test scale reaches at least 14 million kilometers, while Waymo tested 2.3 million kilometers in 2019. It is estimated that Baidu's test mileage will exceed Waymo's in about 2 years.</p><p>In terms of testing qualifications, in the United States, Baidu and Waymo are two of six companies with driverless (L4) licenses, and in China, Baidu is the first and currently the only company with a T4 license. Up to now, Baidu Apollo has obtained a total of 336 test licenses, including 229 manned test licenses.</p><p>In June this year, Waymo announced that it had received $2.5 billion in financing, but did not announce the valuation after this round of financing. Before this round of financing, its valuation had exceeded $30 billion. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Is valuing Apollo at one-third of Waymo's. Qi Su believes that with the narrowing gap between Apollo and Waymo's test data, and the objective impact of Apollo's overtaking in corners under the epidemic, Apollo's total valuation in Robotaxi and exporting technology to car companies is at least $25 billion. You know,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>In February this year, Baidu Apollo was given a separate valuation of $53.9 billion.</p><p>In addition, Baidu also holds a 55% stake in Jidu Auto.</p><p>As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>($64.558 billion), XPeng ($34.169 billion), Ideal ($29.746 billion) have an average market cap of $42.8 billion. As the market value of the three new car-making forces fluctuates greatly after the listing, in Qi Su's view, although Jidu Auto has not disclosed more details, as an industry insider, he conservatively estimates that the valuation of Jidu is set at around $45 billion, and Apollo will get a market value of about $22.5 billion.</p><p>Overall, the overall valuation of Apollo and car manufacturing is around $50 billion.</p><p>Due to the pull of autonomous driving and other businesses, Baidu's non-advertising revenue has grown by more than 50% for three consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in 2021Q2 has exceeded the overall revenue growth rate, reaching 80%, and the revenue proportion has increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 21%. On the conference call after the earnings report, Robin Li said that Baidu Robotaxi could achieve profitability as soon as 2025.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>Previously, the evaluation of Baidu's autonomous driving business was the best representative of vehicle-road collaboration and platform route. It is predicted that it will achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025, of which 4,200 Robotaxi vehicles in intelligent travel business correspond to a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, and 1.57 million pre-installed Zhixing and Zhicabin Zhitu contribute a total revenue of 8.7 billion yuan.</p><p>In fact, Baidu painted a \"Qingming River Map\" of AI travel, AI life, AI industry and AI independent innovation at this World Congress. Qi Su's feeling about the 3-hour live broadcast is that he is curious about how unmanned vehicles will change our lives, but how AI will change the business landscape is more worth looking forward to.</p><p>From Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report, we can see the business progress of Baidu's three-level growth engine. The basic market of mobile ecology has grown steadily, the growth rate of intelligent cloud has reached a record high, and the commercialization progress of autonomous driving and other businesses has accelerated. Qi Su described that Baidu is getting rid of muscle memory, diversifying its income, accompanied by AI business and accelerating the commercialization of Apollo, and the market's judgment on its AI value may shift from prudent attitude to positive.</p>","source":"lsy1598506047654","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Baidu World Congress, there is a trillion market hidden\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深燃</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>No one can give an accurate answer to when L5 driverless vehicles will be mass-produced. However, the car<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Already unveiled.</p><p>On August 18, the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>At the World Congress 2021 \", Baidu showed off the world's first L5 autonomous car robot. \"The main form of future robots is automotive robots,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Cars are becoming more and more like robots, \"which is Baidu's judgment on the future direction of automobile development.</p><p>Travel is the key word of this Baidu World Congress, and autonomous driving is also one of the most noteworthy businesses in Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report recently released. Baidu disclosed that its Apollo ACE intelligent transportation has tens of millions of orders covering more than 20 cities. Robin Li, chairman and CEO of Baidu, also said that Baidu Robotaxi (self-driving taxi service) will be profitable by 2025 at the earliest.</p><p>Some people think that Baidu is targeting the trillion-dollar market behind Robotaxi. IHS, the world's authoritative research consultancy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>A recently released report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% market share.</p><p>Who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track? Does the emergence of \"car robots\" mean that the unmanned version of the online car-hailing war started ahead of schedule? With the commercialization of Baidu's AI business, especially Apollo-related business, is the capital market willing to give Baidu a more positive valuation? This article attempts to answer these questions.</p><p><b>Baidu \"Run Fast\"</b></p><p>What is it like to hit a \"real\" driverless car?</p><p>At the \"Baidu World Conference 2021\", Robin Li took the host Sa Beining to experience it and sat on Baidu Apollo \"car robot\". It has no steering wheel or pedals, and has L5 autonomous driving capability, without the need for human driving.</p><p>According to the official introduction, Apollo car robot knows how to communicate and learn, can analyze the potential needs of users, and actively provide services in various scenarios. The internal and external designs of \"robot\" are very futuristic, with intelligent configurations such as super-large curved screen and intelligent console. Sa Beining described entering the car as if you were in a private cinema.</p><p>In the same space, Li used two photos taken on New York's Fifth Avenue (1900 and 1913) to tell that \"it only took 13 years for cars to replace horse-drawn carriages as the mainstream means of transportation.\" A hundred years later, the number of cars in the Chinese market alone has reached 292 million (as of June 2021), and the number of cars worldwide has exceeded 700 million.</p><p>How many years will it take from the emergence of \"car robots\" to the popularization of unmanned vehicles?</p><p>Baidu now uses a car robot and a travel platform to tell the outside world that commercialization can be faster and the cycle can be shorter.</p><p>On the same day, Baidu also released the unmanned vehicle travel service platform \"Radish (from the transliteration of Robot) Run\", which is equivalent to the brand upgrade of Apollo Go. It continues to introduce unmanned vehicle travel services to the public, and plans to land in 30 cities within three years.</p><p>Nowadays, autonomous driving has gradually become an industry consensus in the second half. According to the IHS Markit report, the total market size of shared mobility in China will reach 2.25 trillion by 2030, with a compound growth rate of between 20%-28%. Among them, Robotaxi will account for 60%, with a scale of 1.3 trillion yuan.</p><p>Essence Securities has measured the market size of domestic Robotaxi with the formula of \"market size = total passenger mileage * penetration rate * unit price\": in 2030, the total domestic passenger mileage is expected to reach 10 trillion kilometers, and the penetration rate of Robotaxi is expected to reach 6%-22% (refer to McKinsey's Outlook of Autonomous Driving Industry under the New Normal). The unit price is 2 yuan/km. On the whole, the travel market brought by Robotaxi is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion-4.4 trillion yuan in 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b92eed31529ef484a2b8d766a800f254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"805\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Qi Su, an insider in the industry, commented that obviously, Baidu is aiming at the trillion market space behind Robotaxi, and now it is going to \"run fast\".</p><p>IHS Markit report shows that in the future, the main players of Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers, and the head service providers may have more than 40% of the market share. Only giant enterprises with deep involvement now can occupy a favorable position in the competition in the next decade. Baidu's advanced layout and leading position in the Internet of Vehicles and ADAS markets will bring important first-mover advantages to Robotaxi competition.</p><p>The report also mentioned that judging from the current technological development trend, the short-term assembly cost of L4 is still the main bottleneck of development. Baidu recently disclosed that its fifth-generation shared unmanned vehicle Apollo Moon currently reaches the L4 standard, and the cost of this vehicle is about one-third of that of similar vehicles in the industry, which is about 480,000 yuan. Robin Li revealed on the 2021Q2 earnings call that when there are 50 million orders per day, the cost of Robotaxi will be 1/5 of what it is now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e95b1a2242f5dd0778c07a434d63203e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Various factors are bound to accelerate the industry's commercialization exploration of Robotaxi and enhance the market space.</p><p><b>To preempt the Robotaxi era, you need three customs clearance cards</b></p><p>Then the question is, who holds the ticket to the Robotaxi track.</p><p>In this track, there are now four forces: travel service platforms, technology companies, car factories and autonomous driving start-ups, each of which has its own strengths in technical fields such as algorithms and data. However, unlike other industries, the networked operation of Robotaxi is more complicated. Getting the ticket requires at least three customs clearance cards: technology, travel network and car building.</p><p>Technology, is the first customs clearance card. Only by meeting the requirements of the technical threshold of L4-level autonomous driving, having the ability to remove safety officers and solve the long tail problem can we eliminate the driver's salary (accounting for about 70%), the most important operating cost of online car-hailing at this stage, and the business model can be completely run through.</p><p>At present, the players who are exploring L4 Robotaxi technology are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>, Baidu, as well as AutoX, Pony.ai, WeRide, Yuanrong Qixing, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c514732da345add90a3bdc603a0d93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The second customs clearance card is to have enough operational data and market size. Only big platform companies have these two points at the same time.</p><p>The competition between Baidu and Didi in China is the fiercest. On April 19th last year, Baidu officially opened Robotaxi service to all citizens in Changsha, followed closely by Didi, which announced on June 27th that it would launch a large-scale trial operation of Robotaxi in Jiading, Shanghai, which would be open to all the public in Shanghai. From Baidu to Didi, from Guangzhou, Changsha to Shanghai, domestic autonomous driving head enterprises have made efforts one after another, so that domestic Robotaxi will enter the stage of large-scale operation in 2020.</p><p>Guosheng Securities believes that whoever has the strongest shared travel network has a better chance of winning. Didi has 377 million domestic taxi users, an average daily order of 25 million in China, accounting for 81% of the taxi market share, and has the largest after-service market such as charging network in China, and sufficient B-end resources such as car companies and car rental companies. The conclusion is that when the technical difference is not big enough, Didi's moat is the mind of C-end users and the service network of B-end.</p><p>However, in terms of large-scale operation of unmanned vehicle services, Baidu has made faster progress. Up to now, Baidu has covered the largest number of cities, and has conducted Robotaxi tests in more than 27 cities around the world, with the largest fleet size, reaching 500 vehicles.</p><p>Recently, Didi, a traditional shared travel service provider, is also supplying its technical capabilities. In April this year, it released the first five-hour takeover-free driving video in the world, and it is possible to compete with Baidu on Robotaxi service in the future.</p><p>Building a car is the third customs clearance card, and it is also a corner overtaking card. To a certain extent, the scale advantage of the supply side determines the choice of users on the demand side. In the traditional shared travel era, Didi has a great advantage on the user side, which means that in the Robotaxi era, whoever has enough autonomous vehicles on the supply side is on the offensive in the competition.</p><p>In November last year, Didi United<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The customized online car-hailing D1 model was launched. As of May this year, Didi D1 has exceeded 1,000 units in Ningbo. In March this year, Baidu announced that it would \"join hands\" with Geely to build a car and set up its car brand Jidu. According to reports, it will take about three years to achieve mass production.</p><p>Guosheng Securities said that future head competitors, such as Baidu and even Huawei, which said it would not do Robotaxi for the time being, own most autonomous vehicles on the market through car building or cooperation with car companies. If they can grasp the supply side and push Robotaxi taxi business in the future, it will not be difficult to overtake Didi.</p><p>In the final analysis, the core of the competition of Robotaxi players is not only the need of three customs clearance cards, but also the overall test of technology, capital and business ecology.</p><p>IHS Markit's view is that Baidu has advantages in traffic ecology and cutting-edge technical capabilities. The former means that Baidu has Baidu Map and mobile ecology to provide the traffic base, while the latter means that in the overall autonomous driving assistance market, with the launch of Baidu Apollo pilot assisted driving AVP and autonomous parking ANP solutions, and the continuous growth of Baidu Apollo ecological partner alliance, it is estimated that the overall capacity and market size of Apollo autonomous driving service will reach about 38% in 2030. With the overall car link penetration rate increasing to 100%, the market share of Xiaodu Assistant Car Edition in the overall market is expected to reach 40% by 2030.</p><p><b>Is Apollo the biggest variable in Baidu's valuation?</b></p><p>For a long time, many brokers have fluctuated greatly in the valuation of Baidu, especially intelligent driving in its frontier business. Questioners are generally bad because of the monetization problem of the industry, while optimistic people compare it to \"Android in the automobile industry\", thinking that it is expected to become the primary scene for AI to be widely implemented in to C, and even commercialized through to B, to G and to C multiple modes. In fact, the commercialization progress and due valuation of Baidu's intelligent driving business continue to change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de2f890256cf8d590c9ae84c164458e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Autonomous driving test kilometers represent data capability, which is an important criterion for evaluating the value of autonomous driving enterprises.</p><p>Among the same type of enterprises,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Waymo far outpaced other rivals with 32 million kilometres tested (as of September 2020). The test mileage of Baidu's Apollo autonomous travel service as of December 2020 was 7 million kilometers, ranking second. By the first half of 2021, this figure had exceeded 14 million kilometers.</p><p>According to this growth rate and the loosening of regulatory ties, such as testing at night, Baidu's annual test scale reaches at least 14 million kilometers, while Waymo tested 2.3 million kilometers in 2019. It is estimated that Baidu's test mileage will exceed Waymo's in about 2 years.</p><p>In terms of testing qualifications, in the United States, Baidu and Waymo are two of six companies with driverless (L4) licenses, and in China, Baidu is the first and currently the only company with a T4 license. Up to now, Baidu Apollo has obtained a total of 336 test licenses, including 229 manned test licenses.</p><p>In June this year, Waymo announced that it had received $2.5 billion in financing, but did not announce the valuation after this round of financing. Before this round of financing, its valuation had exceeded $30 billion. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Is valuing Apollo at one-third of Waymo's. Qi Su believes that with the narrowing gap between Apollo and Waymo's test data, and the objective impact of Apollo's overtaking in corners under the epidemic, Apollo's total valuation in Robotaxi and exporting technology to car companies is at least $25 billion. You know,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>In February this year, Baidu Apollo was given a separate valuation of $53.9 billion.</p><p>In addition, Baidu also holds a 55% stake in Jidu Auto.</p><p>As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>($64.558 billion), XPeng ($34.169 billion), Ideal ($29.746 billion) have an average market cap of $42.8 billion. As the market value of the three new car-making forces fluctuates greatly after the listing, in Qi Su's view, although Jidu Auto has not disclosed more details, as an industry insider, he conservatively estimates that the valuation of Jidu is set at around $45 billion, and Apollo will get a market value of about $22.5 billion.</p><p>Overall, the overall valuation of Apollo and car manufacturing is around $50 billion.</p><p>Due to the pull of autonomous driving and other businesses, Baidu's non-advertising revenue has grown by more than 50% for three consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in 2021Q2 has exceeded the overall revenue growth rate, reaching 80%, and the revenue proportion has increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 21%. On the conference call after the earnings report, Robin Li said that Baidu Robotaxi could achieve profitability as soon as 2025.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">Tianfeng Securities</a>Previously, the evaluation of Baidu's autonomous driving business was the best representative of vehicle-road collaboration and platform route. It is predicted that it will achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025, of which 4,200 Robotaxi vehicles in intelligent travel business correspond to a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, and 1.57 million pre-installed Zhixing and Zhicabin Zhitu contribute a total revenue of 8.7 billion yuan.</p><p>In fact, Baidu painted a \"Qingming River Map\" of AI travel, AI life, AI industry and AI independent innovation at this World Congress. Qi Su's feeling about the 3-hour live broadcast is that he is curious about how unmanned vehicles will change our lives, but how AI will change the business landscape is more worth looking forward to.</p><p>From Baidu's 2021Q2 financial report, we can see the business progress of Baidu's three-level growth engine. The basic market of mobile ecology has grown steadily, the growth rate of intelligent cloud has reached a record high, and the commercialization progress of autonomous driving and other businesses has accelerated. Qi Su described that Baidu is getting rid of muscle memory, diversifying its income, accompanied by AI business and accelerating the commercialization of Apollo, and the market's judgment on its AI value may shift from prudent attitude to positive.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lZEGTdI9OlMwH8bekF5eRg\">深燃</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lZEGTdI9OlMwH8bekF5eRg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168385577","content_text":"L5级无人驾驶车辆什么时候能大规模量产，还没有人能给出准确答案。不过，汽车机器人已经亮相了。\n在8月18日召开的“百度世界大会2021”上，百度展示了全球首款L5级自动驾驶汽车机器人。“未来机器人的主要形态是汽车机器人，智能汽车也越来越像机器人”，这是百度对未来汽车发展方向的判断。\n出行，是这届百度世界大会的关键词，自动驾驶，也是百度日前发布的2021Q2财报中最值得关注的业务之一。百度披露，旗下Apollo ACE智能交通千万订单的覆盖城市超20个。百度董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏还放话，百度Robotaxi（自动驾驶网约出租车服务）最快到2025年实现盈利。\n有观点认为，百度瞄准的是Robotaxi背后的万亿市场。全球权威研究咨询机构IHS Markit近期发布的一份报告显示，未来Robotaxi的主要参与者将集中在2-3家服务供应商，头部服务商或拥有超过40%的市场份额。\n谁握着Robotaxi赛道的门票？“汽车机器人”的出现，是否意味着无人车版的网约车大战提前开始了？伴随着百度AI业务尤其是Apollo相关业务的商业化落地，资本市场愿意给百度更积极的估值吗？本文试图回答这些问题。\n百度“快跑”\n打一辆“真”无人驾驶车是什么体验？\n在“百度世界大会2021”上，李彦宏带主持人撒贝宁体验了一把，坐上了百度Apollo“汽车机器人”。它不设方向盘、踏板，具备L5级自动驾驶能力，无需人类驾驶。\n据官方介绍，Apollo汽车机器人懂交流、会学习，能分析用户潜在需求，在多种场景里主动提供服务。“机器人”的内外部设计都极具未来科技感，拥有超大曲面屏、智能控制台等智能化配置。撒贝宁形容，进入车内仿佛置身私人电影院。\n同一个空间里，李彦宏用拍摄于纽约第五大道的两张照片（1900年和1913年）讲述着，“汽车取代马车成为主流交通工具只用了13年时间”，百年之后，仅中国市场的汽车保有量就达到了2.92亿辆（截至2021年6月），全球汽车保有量更是超过7亿辆。\n从“汽车机器人”横空出世到无人车普及，需要多少个年头呢？\n百度现在用一部汽车机器人、一款出行平台，告诉外界，商业化还可以更快，周期还可以更短。\n当天，百度还发布了无人车出行服务平台“萝卜（源于Robot的音译）快跑”，相当于是Apollo Go的品牌升级，继续向大众推出无人车出行服务，计划3年之内落地30个城市。\n如今自动驾驶进入下半场逐渐成为行业共识。IHS Markit报告显示，到2030年，中国共享出行的总市场规模将达到2.25万亿，复合增长率在20%-28%之间。其中Robotaxi占比将是60%，规模达到1.3万亿。\n安信证券以“市场规模=乘客总里程*渗透率*单价”这一公式测算过国内Robotaxi的市场规模：2030年国内的乘客总里程有望达到10万亿公里，Robotaxi的渗透率有望达到6%-22%（参考麦肯锡《新常态下的自动驾驶行业展望》）。单价在2元/公里，综合来算，2030年Robotaxi带来的出行市场有望达到1.2万亿-4.4万亿元的规模。\n\n业内人士齐肃评价，很显然，百度瞄准的是Robotaxi背后的万亿市场空间，现在是要“快跑”了。\nIHS Markit报告显示，未来Robotaxi的主要参与者将集中在2-3家服务供应商，头部服务商或拥有超过40%的市场份额，只有现在已有深度参与的巨头企业，才可能在未来十年的竞争中占据有利位置。百度在车联网、ADAS市场的提前布局和领先地位将为Robotaxi竞争带来重要先发优势。\n这份报告还提到，从当前的技术发展趋势判断，短期L4的装配成本依然是发展的主要瓶颈。百度最近披露，其推出的第五代共享无人车Apollo Moon目前达到了L4级标准，该车成本是业界同级车辆的三分之一左右，约为48万元。李彦宏在2021Q2财报电话会上透露，当每天有5000万订单时，Robotaxi的成本将会是现在的1/5。\n\n种种因素，势必会加快行业对Robotaxi的商业化探索，并提升市场空间。\n抢占Robotaxi时代，需要三张通关卡\n接下来的问题是，谁握着Robotaxi赛道的门票。\n这个赛道里，现在有出行服务平台、科技公司、车厂、自动驾驶初创公司四方势力，各家在算法、数据等技术领域各有所长。不过，与其他行业不同，Robotaxi的网络化运营更复杂，拿到入场券至少需要技术、出行网络、造车三张通关卡。\n技术，是首张通关卡。达到L4级别自动驾驶技术门槛的要求，有能力去掉安全员，并有能力解决长尾问题，才可以消除现阶段网约车最主要的运营成本司机薪酬（占比约七成），商业模式才能完全跑通。\n当前，进行L4级Robotaxi技术探索的玩家有滴滴、百度，以及AutoX、小马智行、文远知行、元戎启行等。\n\n第二张通关卡是拥有足够的运营数据和市场规模。这两点只有大平台公司才同时具备。\n国内百度和滴滴的角逐最激烈，去年4月19日，百度先在长沙正式向所有市民开放Robotaxi服务，滴滴紧随其后，于6月27日宣布在上海嘉定启动Robotaxi规模化试运营，向所有上海公众开放。从百度到滴滴，从广州、长沙到上海，国内的自动驾驶头部企业相继发力，让国内的Robotaxi在2020年进入规模化运营阶段。\n国盛证券认为，谁有最强的共享出行网络，谁就有更大的胜算。滴滴拥有国内3.77亿打车用户、全国日均订单2500万单、占据了81%打车市场份额，且拥有国内最大的充电网络等后服务市场、充足的车企和租车公司等B端资源。结论是，当技术差别不够大的情况下，滴滴的护城河是C端用户心智和B端服务网络。\n但在规模化运营无人车服务方面，百度进度更快。截止到目前，百度覆盖的城市数量最多，已经在全球超27个城市进行Robotaxi测试，且车队规模最大，达到500辆级别。\n近期，传统共享出行服务商滴滴也在补足技术能力，今年4月发布了国际首个五小时无接管驾驶视频，未来有可能在Robotaxi服务上与百度开展竞争。\n造车，是第三张通关卡，也是弯道超车卡。供给端的规模优势一定程度上决定了需求端用户的选择，传统共享出行时代，滴滴在用户端有较大优势，也就意味着，Robotaxi时代，谁在供给端掌握足够体量的自动驾驶车辆，在竞争中就处于攻势。\n去年11月，滴滴联合比亚迪推出定制网约车D1车型，截至今年5月，滴滴D1在宁波突破1000台。今年3月，百度宣布与吉利“牵手”造车，成立旗下汽车品牌集度，据报道，需要三年左右的时间实现量产。\n国盛证券表示，未来的头部竞争者，如百度、甚至是表示暂不做Robotaxi的华为，通过造车或与车企的合作、拥有了市面上大多数自动驾驶车辆，如果能将供给端把握住，未来力推Robotaxi打车业务，想要超车滴滴并不难。\n说到底，Robotaxi玩家的竞争核心不光是需要三张通关卡，更是对技术、资金、商业生态的全盘考验。\nIHS Markit的观点是，百度在流量生态、前沿技术能力等方面具备优势。前者是指，百度有百度地图、移动生态提供流量基础，后者则是说，在整体自动驾驶辅助市场，随着百度Apollo领航辅助驾驶AVP和自主泊车ANP解决方案推出，以及百度Apollo生态合作伙伴联盟的不断壮大，预计2030年Apollo自动驾驶服务整体搭载量和市场规模可达到38%左右。随着整体车联渗透率提升至100%，小度助手汽车版在整体市场的市占率到2030年有望达到40%。\nApollo成百度估值最大变量？\n相当长一段时间以来，很多券商对百度，尤其是其前沿业务中的智能驾驶，估值波动较大。质疑者普遍是因为行业的货币化问题而唱衰，而看好者将其比作“汽车界的安卓”，认为有望成为AI在to C端广泛落地的首要场景，甚至通过to B、to G、to C多重模式实现商业化。事实上，百度的智能驾驶业务的商业化进展和应有估值，持续发生着变化。\n\n自动驾驶测试公里数代表数据能力，是对自动驾驶企业价值评估的重要标准。\n同类型企业中，谷歌Waymo以3200万公里（截至2020年9月）测试里程远超其他对手。百度Apollo自动驾驶出行服务截至2020年12月的测试里程是700万公里，位列第二，到2021年上半年，这一数据已经超过1400万公里。\n按照这个增速，以及监管层面的松绑，如晚上可以进行测试，百度每年的测试规模至少达到1400万公里，而Waymo在2019年测试了230万公里。估算下来，百度的测试里程2年时间左右就将超过Waymo。\n测试资质方面，在美国，百度和Waymo是六家拥有无人驾驶（L4）许可证企业中的两家，在国内，百度是首个也是目前唯一一个拥有T4牌照的企业。截至目前，百度Apollo获得测试牌照总计336张，其中载人测试牌照229张。\n今年6月，Waymo宣布获得25亿美元的融资，并未公布本轮融资后的估值，在此轮融资前，其估值就已超300亿美元。此前瑞银是按Waymo的三分之一对Apollo进行估值。齐肃认为，伴随Apollo与Waymo的测试数据差距越拉约小，以及在疫情之下Apollo弯道超车的客观影响，Apollo在Robotaxi以及向车企输出技术方面的总估值至少是250亿美元。要知道，中金公司在今年2月份曾给予百度Apollo 539亿美元的单独估值。\n另外，百度还持有集度汽车55%的股份。\n截至发稿，蔚来（645.58亿美元）、小鹏（341.69亿美元）、理想（297.46亿美元）的平均市值为428亿美元。由于造车新势力三家上市后的市值起伏较大，在齐肃看来，虽然集度汽车尚未披露更多细节，但他作为业内人士，保守估计将集度的估值定在450亿美元上下，Apollo将分得225亿美元左右的市值。\n总体来看，Apollo及造车的整体估值在500亿美元上下。\n由于自动驾驶等业务的拉动，百度非广告收入连续三个季度增速超过50%，2021Q2的增速更是超过整体营收增速，达到80%，营收占比从去年同期的15.8%提升到21%。在财报后的电话会议上，李彦宏放话，百度Robotaxi最快在2025年实现盈利。\n天风证券此前对百度自动驾驶业务的评价是，车路协同和平台路线的最佳代表，预判2025年将实现100亿元收入，其中智能出行业务的4200辆Robotaxi对应收入14亿元，157万前装智行与智舱智图共贡献收入87亿元。\n事实上，百度在本届世界大会上描绘的是一幅AI出行、AI生活、AI产业、AI自主创新的“清明上河图”。齐肃对3小时直播的观后感是，好奇无人车将怎样改变我们的生活，但AI将怎样改变商业格局，更值得期待。\n从百度2021Q2财报来看百度三级增长引擎的业务进展，移动生态基本盘稳健增长，智能云增速创新高，自动驾驶等业务商业化进展加速。齐肃形容，百度正在摆脱肌肉记忆，收入多元化、伴随AI业务、Apollo商业化落地加速，市场对其AI价值的判断或将从态度审慎转向积极。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"09888":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831614046,"gmtCreate":1629318581185,"gmtModify":1676529999915,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831614046","repostId":"1103112059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103112059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629300620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103112059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103112059","media":"金十数据","summary":"美银调查显示，投资者纷纷增持现金，经济增长预期下降。","content":"<p>Author: Kun Huang</p><p>European investors' cash holdings rose to their highest level in a year, according to a Bank of America survey released Tuesday,<b>The vast majority of investors expect stock market gains to trim as Europe's economic outlook cools.</b></p><p>Bank of America's monthly survey of fund managers (FMS) was conducted between August 6 and 12, with more than 250 panelists participating and $749 billion in assets under management.</p><p>In the FMS, less than half of respondents expect further improvement in the European economy over the next 12 months. The cooling of growth expectations is largely due to concerns over Covid, with 19% of investors citing Delta as the biggest tail risk to Europe's economy, second only to inflation risks and the \"taper panic\" brought on by the central bank's phasing out of emergency stimulus measures.</p><p>In a similar survey in May, only 9% of respondents were worried about the coronavirus.</p><p>According to Bank of America, 23% of investors hold overweight cash, the highest rate in a year, and 88% of respondents expect European stocks to perform flat, with gains of only single digits.</p><p>This month, 36% of investors worldwide said they had increased their holdings in European stocks, compared with 45% last month. In addition, around 2% of investors worldwide have reduced their holdings in UK stocks. Rate-sensitive cyclical stocks such as banks and insurance and technology stocks are among the top three overweight stocks in Europe.</p><p>It is worth noting that respondents' expectations for global economic growth have also fallen sharply. Only 27% of respondents expected the global economy to grow in August, the lowest since April 2020 and well below the 91% level in March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5b53d6262538b1dfd087d8eba51d85\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Bank of America's August 2021 FMS also showed that 84% of fund managers surveyed believed that,<b>The Fed will signal to taper its quantitative easing by the end of the year. Of those, 28% expect the Fed to announce it at the Jackson Hole meeting, while 33% believe it will be announced at the Federal Open Market Committee in September, and 23% believe it will be announced in the fourth quarter of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4968607695a50409b8d4ba653300f7c\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before August, geopolitical risk was not a focus for investors. However, after the incident in Afghanistan, the proportion of geopolitical risk factors considered in FMS next month may increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3fba020da4fadf93e68fabc22f4dd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bank of America said that more and more investors are worried about inflation and reducing the risk of panic. About 70% of fund managers expect further fermentation of reflation trading, compared with only 64% of fund managers in the July survey.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are investors afraid of with their highest cash holdings in a year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Kun Huang</p><p>European investors' cash holdings rose to their highest level in a year, according to a Bank of America survey released Tuesday,<b>The vast majority of investors expect stock market gains to trim as Europe's economic outlook cools.</b></p><p>Bank of America's monthly survey of fund managers (FMS) was conducted between August 6 and 12, with more than 250 panelists participating and $749 billion in assets under management.</p><p>In the FMS, less than half of respondents expect further improvement in the European economy over the next 12 months. The cooling of growth expectations is largely due to concerns over Covid, with 19% of investors citing Delta as the biggest tail risk to Europe's economy, second only to inflation risks and the \"taper panic\" brought on by the central bank's phasing out of emergency stimulus measures.</p><p>In a similar survey in May, only 9% of respondents were worried about the coronavirus.</p><p>According to Bank of America, 23% of investors hold overweight cash, the highest rate in a year, and 88% of respondents expect European stocks to perform flat, with gains of only single digits.</p><p>This month, 36% of investors worldwide said they had increased their holdings in European stocks, compared with 45% last month. In addition, around 2% of investors worldwide have reduced their holdings in UK stocks. Rate-sensitive cyclical stocks such as banks and insurance and technology stocks are among the top three overweight stocks in Europe.</p><p>It is worth noting that respondents' expectations for global economic growth have also fallen sharply. Only 27% of respondents expected the global economy to grow in August, the lowest since April 2020 and well below the 91% level in March this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5b53d6262538b1dfd087d8eba51d85\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Bank of America's August 2021 FMS also showed that 84% of fund managers surveyed believed that,<b>The Fed will signal to taper its quantitative easing by the end of the year. Of those, 28% expect the Fed to announce it at the Jackson Hole meeting, while 33% believe it will be announced at the Federal Open Market Committee in September, and 23% believe it will be announced in the fourth quarter of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4968607695a50409b8d4ba653300f7c\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before August, geopolitical risk was not a focus for investors. However, after the incident in Afghanistan, the proportion of geopolitical risk factors considered in FMS next month may increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3fba020da4fadf93e68fabc22f4dd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bank of America said that more and more investors are worried about inflation and reducing the risk of panic. About 70% of fund managers expect further fermentation of reflation trading, compared with only 64% of fund managers in the July survey.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ad35190f75132817724b1baf836f80","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/80261","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103112059","content_text":"作者：黄琨\n美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，欧洲投资者的现金持有量增至一年来最高水平，绝大多数投资者预计，随着欧洲经济前景降温，股市涨幅将会削减。\n美国银行对基金经理的月度调查（FMS）于8月6日至12日期间进行，超过250名小组成员参与，所管理的资产规模达7490亿美元。\n在FMS中，仅有不到一半的受访者预计欧洲经济在未来12个月会进一步改善。增长预期降温主要源于对新冠病毒的担忧，19%的投资者认为德尔塔病毒是欧洲经济面临的最大尾部风险，仅次于通胀风险和央行逐步取消紧急刺激措施带来的“缩减恐慌”。\n而在5月份的一项类似调查中，担忧新冠病毒的受访者仅为9%。\n美银称，23%的投资者持有超配现金，这一比例为一年来最高，88%的受访者预计欧洲股市表现平淡，涨幅只会为个位数。\n本月，全球36%的投资者表示自己增持欧洲股票，而上个月这一比例为45%。此外，全球约2%的投资者减持英国股票。银行和保险等对利率敏感的周期性类股和科技股跻身欧洲三大增持股之列。\n值得注意的是，受访者对全球经济增长的预期也大幅下降。8月份预计全球经济会增长的受访者比例只有27%，为2020年4月以来的最低值，也远低于今年3月91%的水平。\n\n另外，美银2021年8月的FMS还显示，受调查的基金经理中有84%认为，美联储将在年底前发出缩减量化宽松的信号。其中，28%的投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔会议上宣布，而33%的投资者认为将于9月在联邦公开市场委员会上宣布，还有23%的投资者认为会在今年第四季度宣布。\n\n在8月份之前，地缘政治风险并不是投资者们考虑的重心。但阿富汗事件发生之后，下个月的FMS考量地缘政治风险因素的占比可能会提升。\n\n美银表示，越来越多投资者担忧通胀以及缩减恐慌风险，约70%的基金经理预计通货再膨胀交易还有进一步发酵的可能，而7月份调查时仅有64%的基金经理这样认为。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897133229,"gmtCreate":1628898280961,"gmtModify":1676529886307,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897133229","repostId":"2159906592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813599132,"gmtCreate":1630210620726,"gmtModify":1676530244599,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813599132","repostId":"2163346079","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810795134,"gmtCreate":1630009151028,"gmtModify":1676530197811,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810795134","repostId":"1187114664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187114664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630031209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187114664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How does the Fed manipulate global inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187114664","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"按照价格上升的速度，人们通常将通货膨胀划分为以下几个级别：\n爬行通货膨胀(creeping inflation, 每年物价上升1%~3%);\n温和通货膨胀(moderate inflation, 每年","content":"<p>According to the rate at which prices are rising, people typically divide inflation into the following levels:</p><p><b>creeping inflation, where prices rise by 1% ~3% every year;</b></p><p><b>moderate inflation (3% ~6% annual price rise);</b></p><p><b>raging inflation (annual price increase of 6% ~9%);</b></p><p><b>galloping inflation (annual price rise of 10% ~50%);</b></p><p><b>hyper-inflation, where prices rise by more than 50% every year.</b></p><p>By studying the monetary history of the United States for nearly a hundred years between 1867 and 1960, Friedman came to a categorical conclusion about inflation:</p><p><b>\"Inflation, at any time and anywhere, is a monetary phenomenon\".</b></p><p>Furthermore, according to Friedman's research, except for hyperinflation, inflation usually occurs 12-24 months after the issuance of additional money, and the duration is usually longer than 24 months.</p><p>Therefore, how to manipulate inflation, to put it bluntly, is to manipulate the issuance of currency, which is a matter of the central bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c98d63d291d237f8950be12f1a0750f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some people stare at the changes of the central bank's balance sheet to judge the trend of inflation-because the size of the central bank's balance sheet does represent the total scale of money printed by the central bank, and the size of the balance sheet is completely under the control of the central bank.</p><p>There is indeed nothing wrong with this idea. Unfortunately, the reality is very skinny. Apart from the two common denominators that the central bank's balance sheet has been increasing and inflation has been persistent, you can hardly see the relationship between the change in inflation and the change in the size of the central bank's balance sheet.</p><p>For example, since 2008, we can observe the balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve. After the periodic surge, we can indeed observe the periodic surge of inflation a year later, but most of the time, inflation has little response to the change of balance sheet size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b661b875fd52225ff055b573bda9d7bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other major global economies, including Europe, China and Japan, the size of central bank balance sheets has less to do with inflation.</p><p>Some people stare at the rate of change of broad money, because the definition of broad money does include all the money and credit derived from the base money in a society, which represents the payment ability of the whole society.</p><p>Take the growth rate of US dollar M2 again to observe the relationship between broad money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4566cd8037455a6e2d0f324863cab858\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The relationship between M2 growth rate and inflation is better than the change of asset size, but there is still no rule as a whole.</p><p>More importantly, whether in the United States or China, broad money mainly comes from the expansion of social credit. Although the central bank can affect its expansion speed through rate hike cutting interest rates, printing and collecting money, it is not completely under the control of the central bank after all. It is largely affected by the economic environment, and the central bank must choose a data that it can completely control and manipulate.</p><p>in the case of the US dollar, this data is called \"Currency in Circulation,\" which I call CiC.</p><p>Here is an interpretation of the main components of the Fed's liability side.</p><p>The asset side of the Federal Reserve is the question of what it uses to print money; On the liability side of the Federal Reserve, it is the question of which accounts the money it prints ends up flowing to.</p><p>According to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, at present, the liability side of the Federal Reserve mainly consists of four parts:</p><p><b>1) Bank reserves:</b>Including the statutory reserve and excess reserve of banks, the statutory reserve ratio of the United States is very low. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, the amount of excess reserve deposited by major banks in the accounts of the Federal Reserve has increased rapidly. At present, it is the largest item on the liability side of the Federal Reserve. This money belongs to major banks, but it is placed in the reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve and has not been circulated to the society.</p><p><b>2) Federal government accounts:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the Account opened by the US Treasury Department in the Federal Reserve, commonly known as \"TGA (Treasury General Account)\". The funds shown in it have been deposited in the Federal Reserve Account and have not been circulated to the society. If the US government spends it, the amount of the account will be reduced, that is, it will be circulated to the society.</p><p><b>3) Fed reverse repo account funds:</b>This is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to adjust the credit tightness of the financial market in the short term. It is just the opposite of the reverse repurchase of the People's Bank of China. The reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve is an act of recovering market funds. The funds in it are also deposited in the account of the Federal Reserve, not money circulating in the society. All along, reverse repurchase account funds are not worth mentioning. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to recover excessive liquidity in the financial market, the scale of reverse repurchase has increased rapidly; Since April 2020, the size of this account has soared to a sky, becoming one of the most important liabilities of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>4) Currency in circulation:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the sum of all accounts currently opened in member banks of the Federal Reserve (almost all large and medium-sized banks in the United States are member banks of the Federal Reserve) is the money really circulating in American society.</p><p>Except during the 2008 financial crisis and a very few other times, the sum of these four accounts accounted for more than 90% of the total liabilities of the Federal Reserve, and the current proportion is 96%. It is through the balance of these four accounts that the Federal Reserve adjusts and changes the total amount of money circulating in American society, thus affecting the inflation of the whole society.</p><p>Comparing the annualized growth rate of CiC in the past 20 years with the CPI inflation 12 months later, it can be seen that the growth rate of CiC is highly correlated with inflation, and it can also be seen that the Fed's operating ideas are obvious.</p><p>The adjustment idea is very simple:</p><p><b>When the inflation rate is at a high level and rising, we will try our best to reduce the growth rate of money in circulation;</b></p><p><b>When inflation is low and declining, it will increase the growth rate of money in circulation vigorously.</b></p><p>After the \"9/11 incident\" broke out in 2001, the Federal Reserve greatly increased the amount of money in circulation, which led to the rise of CPI inflation in the United States from the end of 2002, exceeding 2% and remaining above 2%. Then the Fed took a series of measures to withdraw some of the liquidity in the market, and as long as the market inflation rate was high, the CiC growth rate kept it low.</p><p>By the beginning of 2008, the annualized growth rate of money in circulation had fallen to near zero. Shortly thereafter, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, inflation levels fell sharply, and the Federal Reserve immediately opted for money-printing frenzy (QE1). Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, the growth rate of money in circulation has skyrocketed since the end of 2008. Since the middle of 2009, the inflation level in the United States has also skyrocketed from a low level and returned to more than 2%.</p><p>Then, the Federal Reserve chose to stop QE1, and as a result, the growth rate of CiC quickly plummeted. The Federal Reserve had to turn on QE2, so that the growth rate of CiC skyrocketed again, thus keeping the inflation rate in the United States above 2%.</p><p>When the inflation rate in the United States remained at the level of 1%-2%, the Federal Reserve believed that the monetary target had been reached, so it controlled the growth rate of CiC to slowly decline. This process continued until September 2019, and then basically maintained the low growth of CiC. However, with the outbreak of the global COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020, the inflation rate in the United States was at risk of a sharp decline. The Federal Reserve immediately launched unlimited QE and printed money frantically, allowing the growth rate of CiC to continue to skyrocket to an all-time high of nearly 17%...</p><p>In March this year, the inflation rate in the United States rose rapidly again. Although QE continued, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the annualized growth rate of CiC again, lowering it from a high of nearly 17%.</p><p>Observing the changes of the Federal Reserve's liabilities in the past year and a half, we can clearly find the idea of the Federal Reserve manipulating the growth rate of CiC:</p><p>First, through unlimited QE money printing, the balance sheet size has soared by more than 80%; At the same time, however, in order to avoid the chaos in the capital market and social value system that may be caused by the direct doubling of money in the market, the scale of reserves and reverse repo began to soar: the reserve account increased at a rate of more than 100%, while the growth rate of reverse repo account was close to 100%. As for the U.S. Treasury accounts, because the federal government has to deal with the crazy money spreading in the future, its growth rate is more than 1000%...</p><p>Under these three major increases, although the growth rate of money in circulation in society has reached the highest level in history, it is only more than 10%, thus ensuring that the scale of dollar in circulation in the whole society increases in a relatively normal range, and will not subvert the value basis of dollar in the whole society.</p><p>This process continued until March 2021. With the inflation data in the United States \"rapidly exceeding the standard\", the Federal Reserve began to rapidly reduce the growth rate of CiC, by rapidly reducing the growth rate of reserves. In addition, as the money of the US Treasury Department is distributed to people and enterprises by the government, the slowdown of the account quota of the Treasury Department has exceeded 50%. In order to offset this impact, the Federal Reserve strongly started the reverse repurchase account, and the growth rate of the reverse repurchase account quota exceeded 500%...</p><p>Under this series of generous operations, the annualized growth rate of CiC began to gradually decrease, and now it has dropped below 10%, moving towards the level of \"normalization\".</p><p>Obviously, regardless of drastic changes in the size of the total balance sheet, reserves, reverse repurchases, or government accounts (which are controlled by the U.S. Treasury and not the Fed), the Fed's policy goal is to keep the money in circulation in society<b>\"Steady growth\"</b>-On the basis of stable growth, adjust its growth rate according to the level of inflation, and then control future inflation.</p><p>This is the Fed's overall thinking of manipulating dollar inflation.</p><p>In the past, I have written articles to inform you about the manipulation of inflation data by government statistics departments, but inflation manipulation is not only the matter of the statistics bureau alone, but also the matter of central banks, including the Federal Reserve<b>Primary task</b>。</p><p>In fact, as recently as June 2020, with the skyrocketing growth rate of CiC, according to historical laws, the Federal Reserve was already clear that inflation in the United States would inevitably \"greatly exceed the standard\" in the second quarter of 2021, so it put forward the so-called<b>\"Average inflation targeting\"</b>They are just not sure how far this \"exceeding the standard\" can go.</p><p>At present, large-scale QE has become the \"normal operation\" of the Federal Reserve, and it is superimposed with drastic changes in the amount of U.S. government accounts. At this time, the Fed's reserve account and reverse repo account are like a super buffer to absorb the drastic changes in the amount of dollar money. It is conceivable that these two accounts will continue to play this role in the coming year and become the grip for the Fed to manipulate inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, why Powell has always sworn that even if there is inflation, the Fed has a way to deal with it? In fact, it is also his confidence in adjusting the reserve account and reverse repo account.</p><p>As a result, someone asked, saying that the CiC growth rate has rapidly dropped below 10%, beginning to align with the average of the past 10 years, and that the Fed has vowed that it can deal with inflation- -</p><p>So, is inflation in the United States really temporary now, like it was after QE in 2008?</p><p>While this is a different issue, I honestly personally feel that the outcome may not be what the Fed claims. Because the global economic situation now and in the future is completely different from after 2008. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that this round of inflation will probably continue.</p><p>Consider that in mid-2002, CiC grew at an annualized rate, exceeding 10% only for a very short period of time, but in the 5+ years since then, US inflation exceeded 3% for half the time...</p><p>After the crazy money printing so far in early 2020, the severity of global inflation this time will probably exceed that of 20 years ago. After all, inflation is influenced by too many internal and external factors, unlike the Fed's account, you can play it how you want.</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the Fed manipulate global inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the Fed manipulate global inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财主家的余粮</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to the rate at which prices are rising, people typically divide inflation into the following levels:</p><p><b>creeping inflation, where prices rise by 1% ~3% every year;</b></p><p><b>moderate inflation (3% ~6% annual price rise);</b></p><p><b>raging inflation (annual price increase of 6% ~9%);</b></p><p><b>galloping inflation (annual price rise of 10% ~50%);</b></p><p><b>hyper-inflation, where prices rise by more than 50% every year.</b></p><p>By studying the monetary history of the United States for nearly a hundred years between 1867 and 1960, Friedman came to a categorical conclusion about inflation:</p><p><b>\"Inflation, at any time and anywhere, is a monetary phenomenon\".</b></p><p>Furthermore, according to Friedman's research, except for hyperinflation, inflation usually occurs 12-24 months after the issuance of additional money, and the duration is usually longer than 24 months.</p><p>Therefore, how to manipulate inflation, to put it bluntly, is to manipulate the issuance of currency, which is a matter of the central bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c98d63d291d237f8950be12f1a0750f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some people stare at the changes of the central bank's balance sheet to judge the trend of inflation-because the size of the central bank's balance sheet does represent the total scale of money printed by the central bank, and the size of the balance sheet is completely under the control of the central bank.</p><p>There is indeed nothing wrong with this idea. Unfortunately, the reality is very skinny. Apart from the two common denominators that the central bank's balance sheet has been increasing and inflation has been persistent, you can hardly see the relationship between the change in inflation and the change in the size of the central bank's balance sheet.</p><p>For example, since 2008, we can observe the balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve. After the periodic surge, we can indeed observe the periodic surge of inflation a year later, but most of the time, inflation has little response to the change of balance sheet size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b661b875fd52225ff055b573bda9d7bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other major global economies, including Europe, China and Japan, the size of central bank balance sheets has less to do with inflation.</p><p>Some people stare at the rate of change of broad money, because the definition of broad money does include all the money and credit derived from the base money in a society, which represents the payment ability of the whole society.</p><p>Take the growth rate of US dollar M2 again to observe the relationship between broad money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4566cd8037455a6e2d0f324863cab858\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The relationship between M2 growth rate and inflation is better than the change of asset size, but there is still no rule as a whole.</p><p>More importantly, whether in the United States or China, broad money mainly comes from the expansion of social credit. Although the central bank can affect its expansion speed through rate hike cutting interest rates, printing and collecting money, it is not completely under the control of the central bank after all. It is largely affected by the economic environment, and the central bank must choose a data that it can completely control and manipulate.</p><p>in the case of the US dollar, this data is called \"Currency in Circulation,\" which I call CiC.</p><p>Here is an interpretation of the main components of the Fed's liability side.</p><p>The asset side of the Federal Reserve is the question of what it uses to print money; On the liability side of the Federal Reserve, it is the question of which accounts the money it prints ends up flowing to.</p><p>According to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, at present, the liability side of the Federal Reserve mainly consists of four parts:</p><p><b>1) Bank reserves:</b>Including the statutory reserve and excess reserve of banks, the statutory reserve ratio of the United States is very low. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, the amount of excess reserve deposited by major banks in the accounts of the Federal Reserve has increased rapidly. At present, it is the largest item on the liability side of the Federal Reserve. This money belongs to major banks, but it is placed in the reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve and has not been circulated to the society.</p><p><b>2) Federal government accounts:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the Account opened by the US Treasury Department in the Federal Reserve, commonly known as \"TGA (Treasury General Account)\". The funds shown in it have been deposited in the Federal Reserve Account and have not been circulated to the society. If the US government spends it, the amount of the account will be reduced, that is, it will be circulated to the society.</p><p><b>3) Fed reverse repo account funds:</b>This is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to adjust the credit tightness of the financial market in the short term. It is just the opposite of the reverse repurchase of the People's Bank of China. The reverse repurchase of the Federal Reserve is an act of recovering market funds. The funds in it are also deposited in the account of the Federal Reserve, not money circulating in the society. All along, reverse repurchase account funds are not worth mentioning. However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to recover excessive liquidity in the financial market, the scale of reverse repurchase has increased rapidly; Since April 2020, the size of this account has soared to a sky, becoming one of the most important liabilities of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>4) Currency in circulation:</b>There is nothing to say about this, that is, the sum of all accounts currently opened in member banks of the Federal Reserve (almost all large and medium-sized banks in the United States are member banks of the Federal Reserve) is the money really circulating in American society.</p><p>Except during the 2008 financial crisis and a very few other times, the sum of these four accounts accounted for more than 90% of the total liabilities of the Federal Reserve, and the current proportion is 96%. It is through the balance of these four accounts that the Federal Reserve adjusts and changes the total amount of money circulating in American society, thus affecting the inflation of the whole society.</p><p>Comparing the annualized growth rate of CiC in the past 20 years with the CPI inflation 12 months later, it can be seen that the growth rate of CiC is highly correlated with inflation, and it can also be seen that the Fed's operating ideas are obvious.</p><p>The adjustment idea is very simple:</p><p><b>When the inflation rate is at a high level and rising, we will try our best to reduce the growth rate of money in circulation;</b></p><p><b>When inflation is low and declining, it will increase the growth rate of money in circulation vigorously.</b></p><p>After the \"9/11 incident\" broke out in 2001, the Federal Reserve greatly increased the amount of money in circulation, which led to the rise of CPI inflation in the United States from the end of 2002, exceeding 2% and remaining above 2%. Then the Fed took a series of measures to withdraw some of the liquidity in the market, and as long as the market inflation rate was high, the CiC growth rate kept it low.</p><p>By the beginning of 2008, the annualized growth rate of money in circulation had fallen to near zero. Shortly thereafter, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, inflation levels fell sharply, and the Federal Reserve immediately opted for money-printing frenzy (QE1). Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, the growth rate of money in circulation has skyrocketed since the end of 2008. Since the middle of 2009, the inflation level in the United States has also skyrocketed from a low level and returned to more than 2%.</p><p>Then, the Federal Reserve chose to stop QE1, and as a result, the growth rate of CiC quickly plummeted. The Federal Reserve had to turn on QE2, so that the growth rate of CiC skyrocketed again, thus keeping the inflation rate in the United States above 2%.</p><p>When the inflation rate in the United States remained at the level of 1%-2%, the Federal Reserve believed that the monetary target had been reached, so it controlled the growth rate of CiC to slowly decline. This process continued until September 2019, and then basically maintained the low growth of CiC. However, with the outbreak of the global COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020, the inflation rate in the United States was at risk of a sharp decline. The Federal Reserve immediately launched unlimited QE and printed money frantically, allowing the growth rate of CiC to continue to skyrocket to an all-time high of nearly 17%...</p><p>In March this year, the inflation rate in the United States rose rapidly again. Although QE continued, the Federal Reserve began to reduce the annualized growth rate of CiC again, lowering it from a high of nearly 17%.</p><p>Observing the changes of the Federal Reserve's liabilities in the past year and a half, we can clearly find the idea of the Federal Reserve manipulating the growth rate of CiC:</p><p>First, through unlimited QE money printing, the balance sheet size has soared by more than 80%; At the same time, however, in order to avoid the chaos in the capital market and social value system that may be caused by the direct doubling of money in the market, the scale of reserves and reverse repo began to soar: the reserve account increased at a rate of more than 100%, while the growth rate of reverse repo account was close to 100%. As for the U.S. Treasury accounts, because the federal government has to deal with the crazy money spreading in the future, its growth rate is more than 1000%...</p><p>Under these three major increases, although the growth rate of money in circulation in society has reached the highest level in history, it is only more than 10%, thus ensuring that the scale of dollar in circulation in the whole society increases in a relatively normal range, and will not subvert the value basis of dollar in the whole society.</p><p>This process continued until March 2021. With the inflation data in the United States \"rapidly exceeding the standard\", the Federal Reserve began to rapidly reduce the growth rate of CiC, by rapidly reducing the growth rate of reserves. In addition, as the money of the US Treasury Department is distributed to people and enterprises by the government, the slowdown of the account quota of the Treasury Department has exceeded 50%. In order to offset this impact, the Federal Reserve strongly started the reverse repurchase account, and the growth rate of the reverse repurchase account quota exceeded 500%...</p><p>Under this series of generous operations, the annualized growth rate of CiC began to gradually decrease, and now it has dropped below 10%, moving towards the level of \"normalization\".</p><p>Obviously, regardless of drastic changes in the size of the total balance sheet, reserves, reverse repurchases, or government accounts (which are controlled by the U.S. Treasury and not the Fed), the Fed's policy goal is to keep the money in circulation in society<b>\"Steady growth\"</b>-On the basis of stable growth, adjust its growth rate according to the level of inflation, and then control future inflation.</p><p>This is the Fed's overall thinking of manipulating dollar inflation.</p><p>In the past, I have written articles to inform you about the manipulation of inflation data by government statistics departments, but inflation manipulation is not only the matter of the statistics bureau alone, but also the matter of central banks, including the Federal Reserve<b>Primary task</b>。</p><p>In fact, as recently as June 2020, with the skyrocketing growth rate of CiC, according to historical laws, the Federal Reserve was already clear that inflation in the United States would inevitably \"greatly exceed the standard\" in the second quarter of 2021, so it put forward the so-called<b>\"Average inflation targeting\"</b>They are just not sure how far this \"exceeding the standard\" can go.</p><p>At present, large-scale QE has become the \"normal operation\" of the Federal Reserve, and it is superimposed with drastic changes in the amount of U.S. government accounts. At this time, the Fed's reserve account and reverse repo account are like a super buffer to absorb the drastic changes in the amount of dollar money. It is conceivable that these two accounts will continue to play this role in the coming year and become the grip for the Fed to manipulate inflation.</p><p>Furthermore, why Powell has always sworn that even if there is inflation, the Fed has a way to deal with it? In fact, it is also his confidence in adjusting the reserve account and reverse repo account.</p><p>As a result, someone asked, saying that the CiC growth rate has rapidly dropped below 10%, beginning to align with the average of the past 10 years, and that the Fed has vowed that it can deal with inflation- -</p><p>So, is inflation in the United States really temporary now, like it was after QE in 2008?</p><p>While this is a different issue, I honestly personally feel that the outcome may not be what the Fed claims. Because the global economic situation now and in the future is completely different from after 2008. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that this round of inflation will probably continue.</p><p>Consider that in mid-2002, CiC grew at an annualized rate, exceeding 10% only for a very short period of time, but in the 5+ years since then, US inflation exceeded 3% for half the time...</p><p>After the crazy money printing so far in early 2020, the severity of global inflation this time will probably exceed that of 20 years ago. After all, inflation is influenced by too many internal and external factors, unlike the Fed's account, you can play it how you want.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j-I4SnKxJHxF3XljSZHIKg\">财主家的余粮</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j-I4SnKxJHxF3XljSZHIKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187114664","content_text":"按照价格上升的速度，人们通常将通货膨胀划分为以下几个级别：\n爬行通货膨胀(creeping inflation, 每年物价上升1%~3%);\n温和通货膨胀(moderate inflation, 每年物价上升3%~6%);\n严重通货膨胀(raging inflation, 每年物价上升6%~9%);\n急剧通货膨胀(galloping inflation, 每年物价上升10%~50%);\n超级通货膨胀(hyper-inflation, 每年物价上升50%以上)。\n通过研究美国1867-1960年之间近百年的货币史，关于通货膨胀，弗里德曼得出来了一个斩钉截铁的结论：\n“通货膨胀，在任何时间，在任何地点，都是一个货币现象”。\n进一步地，根据弗里德曼的研究，除了超级通货膨胀之外，通货膨胀的发生，通常都发生在货币增发之后的12-24个月，而且持续时间，通常比24个月更久。\n所以，如何操纵通胀，说白了就是操纵货币的发行，这是央行的事儿。\n\n有人盯着央行的资产负债表变动，以此来判断通胀的走势——因为，央行资产负债表规模，确确实实代表了央行印钞的总规模，而且资产负债表大小完完全全在央行的操控之下。\n这个思路的确没啥问题。可惜，现实却很骨感，除了能看到央行资产负债表一直在增加、而通胀也一直持续这两个共同点之外，你几乎看不到通货膨胀变化与央行资产负债表规模变化之间的关系。\n例如，自2008年以来，我们可以观察到美联储的资产负债表规模，在阶段性的暴涨过后，的确能观察到一年之后的通胀也阶段性暴涨之外，但绝大部分时间通胀对资产负债表规模的变化几乎没有反应。\n\n其他的全球主要经济体，包括欧洲、中国和日本，央行资产负债表规模与通胀的关系更小。\n有人盯着广义货币的变化速率，因为广义货币的定义，的确包含了一个社会上由基础货币所衍生出来的所有货币和信贷，代表着整个社会的支付能力。\n再次拿美元M2增速，来观察广义货币与通货膨胀的关系。\n\nM2增长率与通货膨胀的关系比资产规模变化好一些，但整体还是看不出来什么规律。\n更重要的是，无论美国还是中国，广义货币主要来自于社会信贷的扩张，央行固然可以通过加息降息印钞收钞来影响其扩张速度，但毕竟不是完全在央行的管控之下，其很大程度上，受到经济环境的影响，而央行必须选一个自己能够完全掌控和操纵的数据。\n就美元而言，这个数据叫“流通中的货币（Currency in Circulation）” ，我称之为CiC。\n这里解读一下美联储负债端的主要构成。\n美联储的资产端，是它拿什么来印钞的问题；而美联储的负债端，则是它所印的钱，最终都流向了哪些账户的问题。\n根据美联储的资产负债表，目前，美联储的负债端主要由4个部分构成：\n1）银行准备金：包括了银行的法定准备金和超额准备金，美国的法定准备金率很低，但是自2008年全球金融危机以来，各大银行存放在美联储账户上的超额准备金额度迅速增长，目前是美联储负债端第一大项，这些钱隶属于各大银行，但是放在美联储的准备金账户上，未流通到社会上。\n2）联邦政府账户：这个没什么好说的，就是美国财政部开在美联储的账户，俗称为“TGA（Treasury General Account）”，这里面所显示的资金，一直存放在美联储账户上，并未流通到社会上。如果美国政府花出去，账户额会降低，就是流通到了社会上。\n3）美联储的逆回购账户资金：这是美联储用于短期调节金融市场信用松紧的工具，和中国央行的逆回购正好相反，美联储逆回购是收回市场资金的举动，这里面的资金，也是存放在美联储的账户上，不是社会上流通的钱。一直以来，逆回购账户资金不值一提。但自2008年全球金融危机之后，为了收回金融市场上过多的流动性，逆回购规模快速增长；从2020年4月份开始，这个账户规模更是飙升至天量，成为美联储最主要的负债端之一。\n4）流通中的货币：这个没啥说的，就是目前开在美联储会员银行（美国几乎所有的大中型银行都是美联储的会员银行）所有账户资金总和，是真正流通在美国社会上的钱。\n除了2008年金融危机期间及其他极少数时间，这4个账户总和，占到美联储负债总规模的90%以上，目前占比是96%。美联储正是通过这4个账户的平衡，来调节和改变美国社会上所流通的货币总量，进而影响整个社会的通货膨胀情况。\n把过去20年里CiC的年化增长率与12个月后的CPI通胀进行对比，除了能看出来CiC的增长率与通胀相关性很高之外，也明显看出美联储的操作思路。\n调节思路非常简单：\n通胀率处于高位且上升阶段，就想方设法降低流通货币增长率；\n通胀率处于低位且下降阶段，就使劲儿增加流通货币的增长率。\n2001年“911事件”爆发之后，美联储大肆增加流通货币数量，由此导致从2002年底开始，美国的CPI通胀开始上升并突破2%并一直保持在2%以上。随后美联储就采取一系列措施，收回市场上的一部分流动性，而且只要市场通胀率位于高位，CiC的增长率就一直让其保持在低位。\n到了2008年初，流通货币的年化增长率已经降至接近于0的水平。此后不久，又爆发了由次贷危机引发的全球金融危机，通胀水平急剧下降，美联储立即选择了疯狂印钞（QE1）。在美联储的操纵之下，自2008年底开始，流通货币增长率暴涨，从2009年年中开始，美国通胀水平也从低位开始暴涨并回到了2%以上。\n然后，美联储选择了停止QE1，结果CiC的增长率很快暴跌，美联储不得不开启QE2，让CiC的增长率再度暴涨，由此才将美国的通胀率维持在2%以上。\n当美国的通胀率维持在1%-2%水平的时候，美联储认为已经达成了货币目标，于是控制CiC的增长率缓慢下降，这一过程一直持续到2019年9月份，此后基本维持CiC低位增长。但随着2020年3月份全球新冠疫情的爆发，美国通胀率有急剧下降风险，美联储立即启动了无限QE，疯狂印钞，让CiC的增长率持续暴涨到近17%的历史极高位……\n今年3月份，美国的通胀率再度迅速上升，虽然还在持续QE，但美联储就又开始着手降低CiC的年化增长率，将其从近17%的高位降下来。\n观察最近一年半来美联储的负债项变化，可以清晰地发现美联储操纵CiC增长率的思路：\n先是通过无限QE印钞，资产负债表规模暴涨了80%以上；但同时，为避免市场上货币直接翻倍可能导致的资本市场及社会价值体系混乱，准备金和逆回购规模开始暴涨：准备金账户以超过100%的速度增加，而逆回购账户的增长率也接近100%。至于美国财政部账户，因为联邦政府要应对未来的疯狂撒钱，其增长率更是超过1000%……\n在这三个大项增长之下，社会上流通的货币增长率尽管达到了有史以来的最高水平，但也仅仅是超过了10%，从而确保整个社会流通美元的规模在一个相对正常的范围增长，不至于颠覆整个社会的美元价值基础。\n这一过程一直持续到2021年3月份，随着美国的通胀数据的“迅速超标”，美联储开始火速降低CiC的增长率，办法就是快速降低准备金的增速。另外，随着美国财政部的钱都被政府发给民众和企业，财政部账户额度的降速更是超过了50%。为抵消这个影响，美联储又强力启动逆回购账户，逆回购账户额度增速超过了500%……\n在这一系列大手笔操作之下，CiC的年化增长率开始逐渐降低，目前已经降低到了10%以下，向着“正常化”的水平迈进。\n显然，不管资产负债表总规模、准备金、逆回购或者政府账户（这个受美国财政部控制，不是美联储说了算）的额度如何剧烈变化，美联储的政策目标，就是始终保持社会上流通货币的“稳定增长”——在稳定增长的基础上，根据通货膨胀的高低，调整其增长率，进而对未来通胀加以操控。\n这就是美联储操纵美元通货膨胀的整体思路。\n以前，我曾经写过文章，告知大家关于各国政府统计部门对于通胀数据的操纵，但通胀操纵这事儿，可不仅仅是统计局一家的事儿，更是包括美联储在内各国央行的首要任务。\n实际上，就在2020年6月，随着CiC增长率的暴涨，根据历史规律，美联储已经很清楚， 2021年二季度美国的通胀必然会 “大大超标”，所以才提出来了所谓的“平均通胀目标制”，他们只是不确定这个“超标”能够超到什么程度而已。\n目前，大规模QE变成了美联储的“正常操作”，而且叠加了美国政府账户额度的剧烈变化。此时，美联储的准备金账户和逆回购账户，就像是吸收美元货币量剧烈变化的超级缓冲器。可以想象的是，在未来一年内，这两个账户还将持续发挥这种作用，并成为美联储操纵通胀的抓手。\n进一步地，鲍威尔为什么一直信誓旦旦地说，即使出现了通胀，美联储也有办法进行应对，其实也是对于调节准备金账户和逆回购账户的自信。\n这么一来，有人就问了，说现在CiC增长率已经迅速降低到了10%以下，开始向过去10年的平均水平看齐，而且美联储也信誓旦旦地说能够应对通胀——\n那么，现在美国的通胀是不是就真的是暂时的，像2008年的QE之后一样？\n虽然说，这是另外一个问题，但老实说，我个人觉得，结果可能不是美联储所宣称的那样。因为现在以及未来的全球经济状况，与2008年之后完全不一样。在以往文章里，我也多次强调，这一轮的通胀，大概率会持续下去。\n想想看，2002年年中，CiC的年化增长率，只是在极短时期内超过了10%，但在此后5年多的时间里，美国的通胀率在一半时间里都超过了3%……\n2020年初迄今的疯狂印钞之后，这一次的全球通胀，其严重性大概率会超过20年前。毕竟，通胀这玩意儿，有太多的内部和外部因素影响，可不像美联储的账户一样，自己想怎么玩，就怎么玩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892329635,"gmtCreate":1628640018027,"gmtModify":1676529803581,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/892329635","repostId":"1146397995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817843941,"gmtCreate":1630935119483,"gmtModify":1676530424048,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817843941","repostId":"1159574266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159574266","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630932331,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159574266?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159574266","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月6日，小米集团公布，于2021年9月6日，该公司以每股24.9-25港元的价格回购798万股股份，斥资1.99亿港元。","content":"<p>On September 6, Xiaomi Group announced that on September 6, 2021, the company repurchased 7.98 million shares at a price of HK$24.9-25 per share, spending HK$199 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85968b8413ced7e3207b643ba7fd6bd3\" tg-width=\"1637\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cfa3b5822f891ee0e730f97529dc291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi Group: Buying back 7.98 million shares at a cost of HK$199 million today\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-06 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 6, Xiaomi Group announced that on September 6, 2021, the company repurchased 7.98 million shares at a price of HK$24.9-25 per share, spending HK$199 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85968b8413ced7e3207b643ba7fd6bd3\" tg-width=\"1637\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cfa3b5822f891ee0e730f97529dc291\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159574266","content_text":"9月6日，小米集团公布，于2021年9月6日，该公司以每股24.9-25港元的价格回购798万股股份，斥资1.99亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831498980,"gmtCreate":1629338959540,"gmtModify":1676530007437,"author":{"id":"4088869543384780","authorId":"4088869543384780","name":"猫猫723","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5060d3e47a8d4bf6b19697a47d2e33","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088869543384780","authorIdStr":"4088869543384780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831498980","repostId":"1160720538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160720538","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"最有深度的半导体新媒体，实讯、专业、原创、深度，30万半导体精英关注！专注观察全球半导体最新资讯、技术前沿、发展趋势。《摩尔精英》《中国集成电路》共同出品，欢迎订阅摩尔旗下公众号：摩尔精英、摩尔芯闻、摩尔App","home_visible":1,"media_name":"半导体行业观察","id":"1099700132","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868"},"pubTimestamp":1629337285,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160720538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 09:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TSMC reaches the top again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160720538","media":"半导体行业观察","summary":"本周，台积电 (TSMC) 市值再次超过腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。\n根据 Refinitiv Eikon 截至8月18日上午的数据，台积电在亚洲公司中以超过 5380 亿美元的市值位居榜首。腾讯以","content":"<p>This week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) once again surpassed Tencent in market capitalization to become the most valuable company in Asia.</p><p>TSMC topped the list of Asian companies with a market capitalization of more than $538 billion, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of the morning of August 18. Tencent is in second place with a market capitalization of more than $536 billion.</p><p>Just at the beginning of this month, on August 3rd, TSMC's market value reached $552 billion, historically surpassing Tencent to become the highest market value company in Asia. However, after that, Tencent's market value rebounded and then fell back, until this week, when TSMC overtook Tencent again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490c4f3e714b0975b395afab27887c5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The primary reason for achieving such brilliant results is, of course, TSMC's super foundry technology strength and market share. In addition, recently, a series of anti-monopoly measures by the Chinese government have had a great impact on leading Internet companies such as Tencent in mainland China, objectively helping TSMC.</p><p>Separately, TSMC, a wafer foundry leader, has benefited from a global semiconductor shortage due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and surging demand in industries such as automotive and data centers.</p><p>The above reflects TSMC's position in the Asian market. For this much-watched semiconductor company, there are two important time points for its position in the global semiconductor industry to be established in the past year or so.</p><p>The first appeared on July 20, 2020, when the company reached a market capitalization of $313 billion, surpassing Samsung's $261 billion and Nvidia's $257 billion to become the world's largest semiconductor company.</p><p>The second point in time occurred on April 27th this year, when TSMC's market value reached $558 billion, more than double that of Intel ($239 billion).</p><p>In the past 20 years, TSMC has deeply cultivated technology, steadily and steadily, and its market value has been steadily increasing while constantly winning customers. After years of accumulation, it has beared fruitful fruits in the past five years. Not only is it the leader in technology and market share, but its market value has soared like a rocket in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f6ab2ab8edade54728989f5dda2a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above figure, after entering 2020, TSMC's market value has risen sharply. So, in the past year or so, what kind of development is the company in? Let's take a look at process technology, market influence, investment and production expansion, revenue and other aspects.</p><p>Advanced processes have become TSMC's calling card, specifically 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm.</p><p>In terms of 7nm, TSMC has obtained more than 200 NTOs at this node, and most of them have been put into mass production. The company has produced more than 1 billion 7nm chips. In the 7nm era, TSMC also took the lead in introducing the 7nm + process using EUV technology. On the basis of 7nm, the company launched the 6nm process. One of the main features of this platform is that it is compatible with the 7nm process platform, so that customers can easily port the 7nm design to 6nm.</p><p>In 2020, TSMC achieved mass production of 5nm, which increased the speed of the new process by 15% and reduced power consumption by 30% compared to 7nm, while the logic density was 1.8 times that of the former. In terms of yield, the new process is also progressing very smoothly. At the same time, the company also introduced an enhanced version of the N5P process, which increases the speed of transistors by 5% and reduces power consumption by 10%, which will bring new opportunities for HPC.</p><p>In addition, TSMC has also introduced the N4 process based on the N5 platform, which has improved speed, power consumption and density. Its biggest advantage also lies in its compatibility with N5. Products designed using 5nm process can be easily transferred to 4nm platform. This can also ensure that TSMC customers can get better benefits from their investment in every generation. Trial production of the N4 will be in the fourth quarter of 2021, while mass production will be achieved in 2022.</p><p>At present, TSMC is preparing for the mass production of 3nm process technology. In this generation of technology, TSMC will continue to adopt FinFET. Compared with 5nm, TSMC's 3nm speed will be increased by 10% to 15%, power consumption will be increased by 25% to 30%, logic density will be 1.7 times that of the former, SRAM density will also be increased by 20%, and even analog density will be increased by 10%. According to TSMC's plan, the 3nm process will go into mass production in the second half of 2022.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC took the lead in starting the research and development of 2nm process technology. The corresponding technology development center and chip production plant are mainly located in Hsinchu, Taiwan Province. At the same time, four ultra-large wafer fabs are planned, mainly for the research and development and production of 2nm and more advanced processes.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC set up a 2nm project research and development team to find a feasible path for development. After considering many conditions such as cost, equipment compatibility, technology maturity and performance performance, it is decided to adopt MBCFET architecture based on Gate-all-around (GAA) process to solve the physical limit problem of current-controlled leakage caused by FinFET process shrinking. MBCFET and FinFET have the same idea, except that the gate of GAA is wrapped on all sides of the channel, and the source and drain are no longer in contact with the substrate.</p><p>According to the 2nm process index given by TSMC, Metal Track (Metal cell height) is maintained at 5x as 3nm, while Gate Pitch (transistor Gate Pitch) is reduced to 30nm and Metal Pitch (Metal Pitch) is reduced to 20nm, which is 23% smaller than 3nm.</p><p>According to the plan, TSMC is expected to enter the trial production phase of the 2nm process in mid-2023, and start mass production one year later. In September 2020, according to media reports in Taiwan Province, TSMC's 2nm process made a major breakthrough, and its R&D progress was ahead of schedule. The industry is optimistic that its risk trial production yield in the second half of 2023 can reach 90%.</p><p>At present, in addition to fab construction, the work on TSMC's 2nm talent placement and cultivation is also going on in an orderly manner. It is reported that the company has promoted four employees in the past few months. These initiatives are to allow these employees to devote more energy to the research and development of 2nm manufacturing processes. It is reported that Geoffrey Yeap is now the senior director of the R&D department of 2nm process platform. This location did not exist before this. When the company began to focus on the 2nm process, it was important to create this location. TSMC has high academic requirements for managers. Both newly promoted Deputy General Managers have Ph.D.</p><p>TSMC is not only dominant in advanced manufacturing processes, but also among the best in mature and special manufacturing processes. It can provide MEMS, image sensors, embedded NVM, RF, analog, high voltage and BCD power ICs and other process technologies. On the basis of basic logic technology, TSMC will add advanced ULL&SRAM, RF&Analog and eNVM technologies to achieve low power consumption and the improvement of Analog technology.</p><p>In order to achieve low power consumption, TSMC can provide 0.18um eLL, 90nm ULP, 55ULP and other processes. At the same time, the company has also introduced the latest FinFET technology-N12E, which can create high-efficiency and high-energy products.</p><p>TSMC is continuing its technology in sensors, Stacking and ASICs (ISPs). Sensor is from N65BSI to N65BSI, Stacking is from BSI to Advanced Pixel Level Stack, and ASIC (ISP) is from N90LP to N65LP.</p><p>Since the first quarter of this year, TSMC has continued to occupy a leading position among global wafer foundry manufacturers. According to TrendForce statistics, TSMC's revenue in the first quarter reached 12.90 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The main revenue contribution came from 7nm process, and its major customers included AMD, MediaTek and Qualcomm. The order volume of these companies continued to increase, which made TSMC's revenue from 7nm process increase by 23% year-on-year in this quarter.</p><p>In terms of advanced process capacity of 12-inch wafers, TSMC is the dominant one. In the past year, AMD has the fastest growing demand for its capacity, especially 7nm orders. As AMD's ZEN 2 and the upcoming ZEN 3 architecture CPUs are based on 7nm process, the company's growth momentum in the CPU market is very rapid. In addition, AMD's GPU is also produced by TSMC, and it is still mainly based on 7nm process. These make TSMC's related production capacity more and more tight.</p><p>According to the news from the supply chain, because MediaTek can't continue to supply mobile phone chips to Huawei, the former 7nm process chips that were originally to be cast in TSMC have been suspended, thus releasing about 13,000 pieces of 12-inch wafer foundry capacity, and this gap is likely to be filled by AMD. The market expects that the new generation of gaming machines from Sony and Microsoft will be out of stock by mid-2021. In this way, AMD's customized CPU and GPU \"money\" for these two customers is optimistic.</p><p>TSMC's 16nm and 12nm processes benefited from strong demand for MediaTek's 5G RF transceivers and Bitmain mining machine chips, with revenue increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year.</p><p>However, 5nm, the most advanced process that has been mass-produced, has seen a decline in revenue due to the impact of Apple, the largest customer, in the off-season of production.</p><p>TSMC announced that its capital expenditure in 2021 will increase from the previously estimated $25-28 billion to $30 billion, of which more than 80% will be used for advanced process investment, while 12-inch wafers are used in 7nm, 5nm, 3nm and 2nm process production lines.</p><p>Not long ago, TSMC also announced that it would invest USD 100 billion to expand the fab in three years, and confirmed that it would invest USD 2.887 billion to expand the 28nm process capacity of Nanjing factory, increasing the monthly output of 40,000 wafers, mainly for the production of automotive chips.</p><p>TSMC pointed out that at present, there is no dust room space in wafer fabs in Taiwan Province, and only Nanjing factory has ready-made space available, which can directly set up production lines, which is conducive to the rapid formation of production capacity. According to the plan, the 28nm process capacity of TSMC's Nanjing plant will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022, reaching the full-load capacity target of 40,000 wafers/month in mid-2023. At present, TSMC's Nanjing factory mainly produces 16nm chips, with a monthly production capacity of about 20,000 wafers.</p><p>EUV lithography is an important part of TSMC's lead in 5nm and more advanced processes. In recent years, the company has continuously purchased EUV equipment to maintain its advantage in advanced process capacity. TSMC held a technical forum a few days ago, pointing out that the cumulative installed capacity of its EUV equipment has accounted for 50% of the global total by 2020. By 2020, the wafers produced by TSMC's EUV technology will account for 65% of the global EUV lithography wafers. As the process advances to 5nm, the EUV mask layer for each wafer is greatly increased. TSMC estimates that the EUV mask production capacity in 2021 will be 20 times that in 2019.</p><p>In terms of 3nm, the usage of EUV will be increased, the performance will be increased by 10-15% compared with 5nm, the power consumption will be reduced by 25-30%, the logic density will be increased by 1.7 times, the SRAM density will be increased by 1.2 times, and the analog density will be increased by 1.1 times.</p><p>With the above state-of-the-art process fabs gradually completing construction and putting into mass production in the next 1~3 years, and the first phase of the 12-inch plant in Arizona, USA, entering mass production after 2024, the number of wafers adopting TSMC's EUV technology will increase rapidly, and its investment in EUV equipment will be increasing.</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, TSMC's revenue was US$13.29 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 28%, and TSMC's revenue was NT$372.15 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and its gross profit margin was 50%, representing a quarterly decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, while its net profit after tax was NT$134.36 billion, representing a quarterly decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.</p><p>In the first half of the year, TSMC's revenue was US$26.208 billion, with revenue of NT$ 734.555 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, gross profit margin of 51.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and net profit after tax was NT$ 274.049 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.</p><p>It can be seen that in the latest quarter, TSMC's profit still showed a growth trend year-on-year, and decreased from the previous month, mainly due to the alternating influence of off-season and peak season. In terms of gross profit margin, TSMC has always been the highest in the industry, and the year-on-year and month-on-month decline this quarter does not affect its outstanding performance of revenue and profit. The reason for the decline has a lot to do with its cost pressure, because the company has invested heavily in 5nm and 3nm processes, and it is difficult to show a direct relationship between return and investment in the short term; In addition, losing Huawei HiSilicon, a high-quality big customer with the most advanced process, will definitely have an impact on its profit margin in 7nm and 5nm; Furthermore, in the face of the general price increase in the industry, TSMC has made little change to the original customer contract, which will also have an impact on the gross profit margin to a certain extent.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, TSMC expects that its revenue in August and September will rebound month by month. It is expected that its revenue in September will hit a record high in a single month, and its revenue in the third quarter will reach the upper limit of its performance outlook. The gross profit margin and operating profit rate are also expected to be close to the high standard of financial forecast, while its quarterly revenue and profit will continue to hit a record high simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, due to the heavy shipment of Apple's new A15 and M2 processors, the 5nm utilization rate reached full load, and the operating performance is worth looking forward to.</p><p>In the second half of the year, TSMC entered the traditional peak season, and its growth momentum came from 5nm new orders entering mass production one after another. Among them, Apple M1X and the subsequent M2 will be mass-produced at 5nm in the second half of the year. The A15 application processor equipped with iPhone 13 will be mass-produced with TSMC's enhanced version of 5nm in June, and the volume of films will be increased month by month to the fourth quarter in the second half of the year.</p><p>In addition, TSMC's 5G mobile phone chips received strong orders in the second half of the year. Qualcomm used TSMC's 6nm mass-produced new 5G mobile phone chips to be shipped in the third quarter, and three 5G mobile phone chips will be expanded to use TSMC's 7nm or 6nm process. The new generation Snapdragon 895+, which will be launched early next year, will be mass-produced by TSMC 5nm in the fourth quarter. As for MediaTek's new generation Tianji 2000 series, it will also introduce 5nm mass-production in the second half of the year.</p><p>Under the combined effect of technology, influence, market demand and other factors, TSMC's revenue and market value are rising steadily, and the market expectation is still upward. It is likely that one or more records will be broken again within the next year. The pace of Samsung and Intel catching up is getting heavier.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC reaches the top again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC reaches the top again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700132\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">半导体行业观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-19 09:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) once again surpassed Tencent in market capitalization to become the most valuable company in Asia.</p><p>TSMC topped the list of Asian companies with a market capitalization of more than $538 billion, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of the morning of August 18. Tencent is in second place with a market capitalization of more than $536 billion.</p><p>Just at the beginning of this month, on August 3rd, TSMC's market value reached $552 billion, historically surpassing Tencent to become the highest market value company in Asia. However, after that, Tencent's market value rebounded and then fell back, until this week, when TSMC overtook Tencent again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490c4f3e714b0975b395afab27887c5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The primary reason for achieving such brilliant results is, of course, TSMC's super foundry technology strength and market share. In addition, recently, a series of anti-monopoly measures by the Chinese government have had a great impact on leading Internet companies such as Tencent in mainland China, objectively helping TSMC.</p><p>Separately, TSMC, a wafer foundry leader, has benefited from a global semiconductor shortage due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and surging demand in industries such as automotive and data centers.</p><p>The above reflects TSMC's position in the Asian market. For this much-watched semiconductor company, there are two important time points for its position in the global semiconductor industry to be established in the past year or so.</p><p>The first appeared on July 20, 2020, when the company reached a market capitalization of $313 billion, surpassing Samsung's $261 billion and Nvidia's $257 billion to become the world's largest semiconductor company.</p><p>The second point in time occurred on April 27th this year, when TSMC's market value reached $558 billion, more than double that of Intel ($239 billion).</p><p>In the past 20 years, TSMC has deeply cultivated technology, steadily and steadily, and its market value has been steadily increasing while constantly winning customers. After years of accumulation, it has beared fruitful fruits in the past five years. Not only is it the leader in technology and market share, but its market value has soared like a rocket in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f6ab2ab8edade54728989f5dda2a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above figure, after entering 2020, TSMC's market value has risen sharply. So, in the past year or so, what kind of development is the company in? Let's take a look at process technology, market influence, investment and production expansion, revenue and other aspects.</p><p>Advanced processes have become TSMC's calling card, specifically 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm.</p><p>In terms of 7nm, TSMC has obtained more than 200 NTOs at this node, and most of them have been put into mass production. The company has produced more than 1 billion 7nm chips. In the 7nm era, TSMC also took the lead in introducing the 7nm + process using EUV technology. On the basis of 7nm, the company launched the 6nm process. One of the main features of this platform is that it is compatible with the 7nm process platform, so that customers can easily port the 7nm design to 6nm.</p><p>In 2020, TSMC achieved mass production of 5nm, which increased the speed of the new process by 15% and reduced power consumption by 30% compared to 7nm, while the logic density was 1.8 times that of the former. In terms of yield, the new process is also progressing very smoothly. At the same time, the company also introduced an enhanced version of the N5P process, which increases the speed of transistors by 5% and reduces power consumption by 10%, which will bring new opportunities for HPC.</p><p>In addition, TSMC has also introduced the N4 process based on the N5 platform, which has improved speed, power consumption and density. Its biggest advantage also lies in its compatibility with N5. Products designed using 5nm process can be easily transferred to 4nm platform. This can also ensure that TSMC customers can get better benefits from their investment in every generation. Trial production of the N4 will be in the fourth quarter of 2021, while mass production will be achieved in 2022.</p><p>At present, TSMC is preparing for the mass production of 3nm process technology. In this generation of technology, TSMC will continue to adopt FinFET. Compared with 5nm, TSMC's 3nm speed will be increased by 10% to 15%, power consumption will be increased by 25% to 30%, logic density will be 1.7 times that of the former, SRAM density will also be increased by 20%, and even analog density will be increased by 10%. According to TSMC's plan, the 3nm process will go into mass production in the second half of 2022.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC took the lead in starting the research and development of 2nm process technology. The corresponding technology development center and chip production plant are mainly located in Hsinchu, Taiwan Province. At the same time, four ultra-large wafer fabs are planned, mainly for the research and development and production of 2nm and more advanced processes.</p><p>In 2019, TSMC set up a 2nm project research and development team to find a feasible path for development. After considering many conditions such as cost, equipment compatibility, technology maturity and performance performance, it is decided to adopt MBCFET architecture based on Gate-all-around (GAA) process to solve the physical limit problem of current-controlled leakage caused by FinFET process shrinking. MBCFET and FinFET have the same idea, except that the gate of GAA is wrapped on all sides of the channel, and the source and drain are no longer in contact with the substrate.</p><p>According to the 2nm process index given by TSMC, Metal Track (Metal cell height) is maintained at 5x as 3nm, while Gate Pitch (transistor Gate Pitch) is reduced to 30nm and Metal Pitch (Metal Pitch) is reduced to 20nm, which is 23% smaller than 3nm.</p><p>According to the plan, TSMC is expected to enter the trial production phase of the 2nm process in mid-2023, and start mass production one year later. In September 2020, according to media reports in Taiwan Province, TSMC's 2nm process made a major breakthrough, and its R&D progress was ahead of schedule. The industry is optimistic that its risk trial production yield in the second half of 2023 can reach 90%.</p><p>At present, in addition to fab construction, the work on TSMC's 2nm talent placement and cultivation is also going on in an orderly manner. It is reported that the company has promoted four employees in the past few months. These initiatives are to allow these employees to devote more energy to the research and development of 2nm manufacturing processes. It is reported that Geoffrey Yeap is now the senior director of the R&D department of 2nm process platform. This location did not exist before this. When the company began to focus on the 2nm process, it was important to create this location. TSMC has high academic requirements for managers. Both newly promoted Deputy General Managers have Ph.D.</p><p>TSMC is not only dominant in advanced manufacturing processes, but also among the best in mature and special manufacturing processes. It can provide MEMS, image sensors, embedded NVM, RF, analog, high voltage and BCD power ICs and other process technologies. On the basis of basic logic technology, TSMC will add advanced ULL&SRAM, RF&Analog and eNVM technologies to achieve low power consumption and the improvement of Analog technology.</p><p>In order to achieve low power consumption, TSMC can provide 0.18um eLL, 90nm ULP, 55ULP and other processes. At the same time, the company has also introduced the latest FinFET technology-N12E, which can create high-efficiency and high-energy products.</p><p>TSMC is continuing its technology in sensors, Stacking and ASICs (ISPs). Sensor is from N65BSI to N65BSI, Stacking is from BSI to Advanced Pixel Level Stack, and ASIC (ISP) is from N90LP to N65LP.</p><p>Since the first quarter of this year, TSMC has continued to occupy a leading position among global wafer foundry manufacturers. According to TrendForce statistics, TSMC's revenue in the first quarter reached 12.90 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The main revenue contribution came from 7nm process, and its major customers included AMD, MediaTek and Qualcomm. The order volume of these companies continued to increase, which made TSMC's revenue from 7nm process increase by 23% year-on-year in this quarter.</p><p>In terms of advanced process capacity of 12-inch wafers, TSMC is the dominant one. In the past year, AMD has the fastest growing demand for its capacity, especially 7nm orders. As AMD's ZEN 2 and the upcoming ZEN 3 architecture CPUs are based on 7nm process, the company's growth momentum in the CPU market is very rapid. In addition, AMD's GPU is also produced by TSMC, and it is still mainly based on 7nm process. These make TSMC's related production capacity more and more tight.</p><p>According to the news from the supply chain, because MediaTek can't continue to supply mobile phone chips to Huawei, the former 7nm process chips that were originally to be cast in TSMC have been suspended, thus releasing about 13,000 pieces of 12-inch wafer foundry capacity, and this gap is likely to be filled by AMD. The market expects that the new generation of gaming machines from Sony and Microsoft will be out of stock by mid-2021. In this way, AMD's customized CPU and GPU \"money\" for these two customers is optimistic.</p><p>TSMC's 16nm and 12nm processes benefited from strong demand for MediaTek's 5G RF transceivers and Bitmain mining machine chips, with revenue increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year.</p><p>However, 5nm, the most advanced process that has been mass-produced, has seen a decline in revenue due to the impact of Apple, the largest customer, in the off-season of production.</p><p>TSMC announced that its capital expenditure in 2021 will increase from the previously estimated $25-28 billion to $30 billion, of which more than 80% will be used for advanced process investment, while 12-inch wafers are used in 7nm, 5nm, 3nm and 2nm process production lines.</p><p>Not long ago, TSMC also announced that it would invest USD 100 billion to expand the fab in three years, and confirmed that it would invest USD 2.887 billion to expand the 28nm process capacity of Nanjing factory, increasing the monthly output of 40,000 wafers, mainly for the production of automotive chips.</p><p>TSMC pointed out that at present, there is no dust room space in wafer fabs in Taiwan Province, and only Nanjing factory has ready-made space available, which can directly set up production lines, which is conducive to the rapid formation of production capacity. According to the plan, the 28nm process capacity of TSMC's Nanjing plant will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022, reaching the full-load capacity target of 40,000 wafers/month in mid-2023. At present, TSMC's Nanjing factory mainly produces 16nm chips, with a monthly production capacity of about 20,000 wafers.</p><p>EUV lithography is an important part of TSMC's lead in 5nm and more advanced processes. In recent years, the company has continuously purchased EUV equipment to maintain its advantage in advanced process capacity. TSMC held a technical forum a few days ago, pointing out that the cumulative installed capacity of its EUV equipment has accounted for 50% of the global total by 2020. By 2020, the wafers produced by TSMC's EUV technology will account for 65% of the global EUV lithography wafers. As the process advances to 5nm, the EUV mask layer for each wafer is greatly increased. TSMC estimates that the EUV mask production capacity in 2021 will be 20 times that in 2019.</p><p>In terms of 3nm, the usage of EUV will be increased, the performance will be increased by 10-15% compared with 5nm, the power consumption will be reduced by 25-30%, the logic density will be increased by 1.7 times, the SRAM density will be increased by 1.2 times, and the analog density will be increased by 1.1 times.</p><p>With the above state-of-the-art process fabs gradually completing construction and putting into mass production in the next 1~3 years, and the first phase of the 12-inch plant in Arizona, USA, entering mass production after 2024, the number of wafers adopting TSMC's EUV technology will increase rapidly, and its investment in EUV equipment will be increasing.</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, TSMC's revenue was US$13.29 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 28%, and TSMC's revenue was NT$372.15 billion, representing a quarterly increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and its gross profit margin was 50%, representing a quarterly decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, while its net profit after tax was NT$134.36 billion, representing a quarterly decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.</p><p>In the first half of the year, TSMC's revenue was US$26.208 billion, with revenue of NT$ 734.555 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, gross profit margin of 51.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points, and net profit after tax was NT$ 274.049 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.</p><p>It can be seen that in the latest quarter, TSMC's profit still showed a growth trend year-on-year, and decreased from the previous month, mainly due to the alternating influence of off-season and peak season. In terms of gross profit margin, TSMC has always been the highest in the industry, and the year-on-year and month-on-month decline this quarter does not affect its outstanding performance of revenue and profit. The reason for the decline has a lot to do with its cost pressure, because the company has invested heavily in 5nm and 3nm processes, and it is difficult to show a direct relationship between return and investment in the short term; In addition, losing Huawei HiSilicon, a high-quality big customer with the most advanced process, will definitely have an impact on its profit margin in 7nm and 5nm; Furthermore, in the face of the general price increase in the industry, TSMC has made little change to the original customer contract, which will also have an impact on the gross profit margin to a certain extent.</p><p>Looking forward to the second half of the year, TSMC expects that its revenue in August and September will rebound month by month. It is expected that its revenue in September will hit a record high in a single month, and its revenue in the third quarter will reach the upper limit of its performance outlook. The gross profit margin and operating profit rate are also expected to be close to the high standard of financial forecast, while its quarterly revenue and profit will continue to hit a record high simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, due to the heavy shipment of Apple's new A15 and M2 processors, the 5nm utilization rate reached full load, and the operating performance is worth looking forward to.</p><p>In the second half of the year, TSMC entered the traditional peak season, and its growth momentum came from 5nm new orders entering mass production one after another. Among them, Apple M1X and the subsequent M2 will be mass-produced at 5nm in the second half of the year. The A15 application processor equipped with iPhone 13 will be mass-produced with TSMC's enhanced version of 5nm in June, and the volume of films will be increased month by month to the fourth quarter in the second half of the year.</p><p>In addition, TSMC's 5G mobile phone chips received strong orders in the second half of the year. Qualcomm used TSMC's 6nm mass-produced new 5G mobile phone chips to be shipped in the third quarter, and three 5G mobile phone chips will be expanded to use TSMC's 7nm or 6nm process. The new generation Snapdragon 895+, which will be launched early next year, will be mass-produced by TSMC 5nm in the fourth quarter. As for MediaTek's new generation Tianji 2000 series, it will also introduce 5nm mass-production in the second half of the year.</p><p>Under the combined effect of technology, influence, market demand and other factors, TSMC's revenue and market value are rising steadily, and the market expectation is still upward. It is likely that one or more records will be broken again within the next year. The pace of Samsung and Intel catching up is getting heavier.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","TSM":"台积电","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160720538","content_text":"本周，台积电 (TSMC) 市值再次超过腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。\n根据 Refinitiv Eikon 截至8月18日上午的数据，台积电在亚洲公司中以超过 5380 亿美元的市值位居榜首。腾讯以超过 5360 亿美元的市值位居第二。\n就在本月初的8月3日，台积电市值达到5520亿美元，历史性地超过了腾讯，成为亚洲市值最高的公司。不过，在那之后，腾讯的市值反弹，然后又回落，直到本周，台积电再一次超越了腾讯。\n\n能够取得如此亮眼的成绩，首要原因当然是台积电超强的晶圆代工技术实力及其市场占有率。此外，最近中国政府一系列反垄断措施，对中国大陆的腾讯等互联网头部企业影响较大，客观上帮助了台积电。\n另外，由于疫情导致供应链中断以及汽车和数据中心等行业的需求激增，全球半导体短缺，作为晶圆代工厂龙头的台积电受益于此。\n以上体现的是台积电在亚洲市场的地位，而对于这家备受关注的半导体企业来讲，在过去一年多的时间内，其在全球半导体业地位的确立，还有两个重要的时间点。\n第一个出现在2020年7月20日，当时，该公司市值达到3130亿美元，超过了三星的2610 亿美元和英伟达的2570亿美元，成为全球最大的半导体公司。\n第二个时间点出现在今年4月27日，台积电的市值达到5580亿美元，是英特尔的（2390亿美元）两倍多。\n在过去的20年里，台积电深耕技术，稳扎稳打，在不断赢得客户的情况下，市值一直稳步提升。经过多年的积累，在最近5年结出了丰硕的果实，不但工艺技术和市占率领袖群伦，其市值更是在近两年内如火箭般窜升。\n\n从上图可以看出，进入2020年以后，台积电的市值陡然上升。那么，在过去的这一年多时间内，该公司处在怎样一个发展状态呢？下面从制程工艺技术、市场影响力、投资扩产、营收等各方面看一下。\n先进制程已成为台积电的名片，特别是7nm、5nm、3nm和2nm。\n7nm方面，台积电已经在这个节点上获得了超过200个NTO，且大多投入量产。该公司已经生产了超过10亿颗7nm芯片。在7nm时代，台积电还率先推出了使用EUV技术的7nm+工艺。在7nm基础上，该公司推出了6nm工艺，这个平台的一个主要特点是与7nm工艺平台兼容，这样，客户很容易把7nm的设计移植到6nm。\n2020年，台积电实现了5nm的量产，与7nm相比，新工艺的速度提升了15%，功耗降低了30%，而逻辑密度则是前者的1.8倍。在良率方面，新工艺的进展也非常顺利。与此同时，该公司还推出了增强版的N5P工艺制程，晶体管的速度提升了5%，功耗降低了10%，这将给HPC带来新的机会。\n此外，台积电还基于N5平台推出了N4工艺，其速度、功耗和密度都有了改善。其最大的优势同样是在于其与N5的兼容，使用5nm工艺设计的产品能够轻易地转移到4nm的平台上。这也能保证台积电客户在每一代的投资，都能获得更好的效益。N4试产将在2021年第四季度，而量产将会在2022年实现。\n目前，台积电正在为3nm制程工艺量产做着准备，在这代工艺上，台积电会继续采用FinFET。与5nm相比，台积电3nm的速度将提升10%到15%，功耗将提升25%到30%，逻辑密度将是前者的1.7倍，SRAM密度也将能提升20%，就连模拟密度也提升了10%。根据台积电规划，3nm工艺将在2022年下半年进行量产。\n2019年，台积电率先开始了2nm制程技术的研发工作。相应的技术开发的中心和芯片生产工厂主要设在台湾地区的新竹，同时还规划了4个超大型晶圆厂，主要用于2nm及更先进制程的研发和生产。\n台积电2019年成立了2nm专案研发团队，寻找可行路径进行开发。在考量成本、设备相容、技术成熟及效能表现等多项条件之后，决定采用以环绕闸极（Gate-all-around，GAA）制程为基础的MBCFET架构，解决FinFET因制程微缩产生电流控制漏电的物理极限问题。MBCFET和FinFET有相同的理念，不同之处在于GAA的栅极对沟道的四面包裹，源极和漏极不再和基底接触。\n按照台积电给出的2nm工艺指标，Metal Track(金属单元高度)和3nm一样维持在5x，同时Gate Pitch(晶体管栅极间距)缩小到30nm，Metal Pitch(金属间距)缩小到20nm，相比于3nm都小了23%。\n按照规划，台积电有望在 2023 年中期进入 2nm 工艺试生产阶段，并于一年后开始批量生产。2020年9月，据台湾地区媒体报道，台积电2nm工艺取得重大突破，研发进度超前，业界看好其2023年下半年风险试产良率就可以达到90%。\n目前，除了晶圆厂建设、台积电2nm人才安排和培育方面的工作也正在有条不紊地进行着，据报道，该公司在过去几个月提拔了4名员工。这些举措是为了让这些员工有更多的精力投入到2nm制造工艺的研究和开发当中。据悉，Geoffrey Yeap现在是2nm制程平台研发部的高级总监。这个位置在此之前是不存在的。当该公司开始专注于2nm制程时，创造这个位置是很重要的。台积电对管理人员的学术要求很高。两位新提拔的副总经理都有博士学位。\n台积电不仅在先进制程方面处于霸主地位，在成熟和特殊制程领域同样名列前茅，可以提供MEMS、图像传感器、嵌入式NVM，RF、模拟、高电压和BCD功率IC等制程工艺。台积电在基本的逻辑技术基础上，会加上先进的ULL&SRAM、RF&Analog及eNVM技术，实现低功耗以及模拟技术的提升。\n为了实现低功耗，台积电可提供0.18um eLL、90nm ULP、55ULP等制程，同时，该公司还推出了最新的FinFET技术-N12e，可以打造高效高能的产品。\n台积电在Sensor，Stacking和ASIC（ISP）方面都在延续自己的技术。Sensor方面从N65BSI 一直到N65BSI，Stacking方面，则是从BSI到Advanced Pixel Level Stack，ASIC（ISP）则是从N90LP到N65LP。\n今年第一季度以来，台积电继续在全球晶圆代工厂商中占据龙头位置，据TrendForce统计，台积电第一季度营收达到129.0亿美元，同比增长2%，主要营收贡献来自7nm制程，大客户包括AMD、联发科和高通，这几家的订单量持增长，使台积电在该季度7nm工艺营收同比增长了23%。\n在12英寸晶圆先进制程产能方面，台积电一家独大，而近一年，对其产能需求增长最快的非AMD莫属了，特别是7nm订单，由于AMD的ZEN 2 和即将推出的ZEN 3架构CPU都是基于7nm制程的，而该公司在CPU市场的增长势头非常猛。另外，AMD的GPU也由台积电代工生产，且依然是以7nm制程为主。这些使得台积电相关产能越发吃紧。\n来自供应链的消息显示，由于联发科无法继续给华为供货手机芯片，前者原本要在台积电投片的7nm制程芯片已暂停，这样就释放了约1.3万片的12英寸晶圆代工产能，而这部分缺口很可能由AMD填补上。市场预期，索尼和微软的新一代游戏机会缺货到2021年中旬，这样，AMD为这两大客户定制的CPU和GPU“钱”景乐观。\n台积电16nm和12nm制程则得益于联发科5G射频收发器和比特大陆矿机芯片需求强劲，营收同比增长近10%。\n不过，已量产的最先进制程5nm，因为受到最大客户苹果处于生产淡季的影响，营收有所下滑。\n台积电宣布2021年资本支出由之前预估的250-280亿美元提升至300亿美元，其中逾8成用于先进制程投资，而7nm、5nm、3nm、2nm这些制程产线都采用12英寸晶圆。\n不久前，台积电还宣布3年投资1000亿美元扩建晶圆厂，并确认将投资28.87亿美元扩充南京厂28nm制程工艺产能，每月增加4万片晶圆产量，主要用于生产汽车芯片。\n台积电指出，目前台湾地区的晶圆厂已经没有洁尘室空间，只有南京厂有现成空间可用，可以直接设置生产线，有利于快速形成产能。按照计划，台积电南京厂的28nm制程产能将于2022年下半年量产，2023年中达到4万片晶圆/月的满载产能目标。目前，台积电的南京工厂主要生产16nm芯片，月产能约为2万片晶圆。\n台积电要在5nm及更先进制程保持领先，EUV光刻机是重要一环，近年来，该公司不断购入EUV设备，以维持先进制程产能优势。台积电于日前召开技术论坛，指出其EUV设备累计装机数量到2020年已占全球总数的50％，到2020年为止，采用台积电EUV技术生产的晶圆，占全球EUV光刻晶圆数的65％。而随着制程推进至5nm，每片晶圆采用EUV掩模层大幅拉升，台积电预估2021年EUV掩模产能将是2019年的20倍。\n3nm方面，将增加EUV的使用量，效能将比5nm提升10-15%，功耗减少25-30%，逻辑密度增加1.7倍，SRAM密度提升1.2倍、模拟密度则提升1.1倍。\n随着以上最先进制程晶圆厂在未来1～3年内逐步完成建设并投入量产，以及美国亚利桑那州12吋厂第一期在2024年后进入量产，采用台积电EUV技术的晶圆数将快速增长，其在EUV设备上的投资将越来越大。\n2021年第二季度，台积电营收 132.9 亿美元，季增 2.9%，年增 28%，新台币营收 3721.5 亿元新台币，季增 2.7%，年增 19.8%，毛利率 50%，季减 2.4 个百分点，年减 3 个百分点，税后纯益 1343.6 亿元，季减 3.8%，年增 11.2%。\n台积电上半年营收 262.08 亿美元，新台币营收 7345.55 亿元，年增 18.2%，毛利率 51.2%，年减 1.2 个百分点，税后纯益 2740.49 亿元新台币，年增 15.2%。\n可见，最近一季，台积电的利润同比依然呈现增长态势，环比有所下降，主要受淡旺季交替影响所致。毛利率方面，台积电一直都是业界最高的，本季出现同比和环比下降，并不影响其营收和利润的优秀表现。之所以有所下降，与其成本压力有很大关系，因为该公司在5nm和3nm制程上投资巨大，而短期内回报与投入难以呈现正比关系；另外，失去了华为海思这个一个最先进制程的优质大客户，对其在7nm和5nm方面的利润率肯定会有影响；再者，面对行业普遍的涨价态势，台积电对原有客户合同的变化很小，这在一定程度上也会对毛利率产生影响。\n展望下半年，台积电预期8月及9月营收有望逐月回升，预期9月营收将再创单月营收历史新高，第三季营收将达到业绩展望上限，毛利率及营业利益率也有望贴近财测高标，而季度营收及获利将同步续创新高纪录。第四季因为苹果新款A15及M2处理器放量出货，5nm利用率达满载，营运表现值得期待。\n下半年，台积电进入传统旺季，增长动能来自于5nm新订单陆续进入量产。其中，苹果M1X及后续推出的M2等都将在下半年采用5nm量产，iPhone 13搭载的A15应用处理器6月开始以台积电加强版5nm量产投片，下半年逐月拉高投片量到第四季。\n另外，台积电下半年5G手机芯片接单强劲，高通采用台积电6nm量产新款5G手机芯片在第三季放量出货，还有3款5G手机芯片将扩大采用台积电7nm或6nm制程投片，明年初将推出的新一代Snapdragon 895+传出会在第四季采用台积电5nm量产，至于联发科新一代天玑2000系列亦会在下半年导入5nm量产投片。\n在技术、影响力、市场需求等多种因素的共同作用下，台积电的营收和市值节节攀升，市场预期依然向上。在未来一年内，很可能会再次打破一项或多项记录。三星和英特尔追赶的脚步愈加沉重了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWmain":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"03145":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}