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Jamesyong
2021-07-16
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Jamesyong
2021-07-16
power
One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded
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Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.</p>\n<p>But while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e8197cd3b3f73d48338d5b01164364\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.</p>\n<p>This, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.</p>\n<p>So to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:<b>it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevated</b><b><u>persistent</u></b><b>, as in non-transitory, inflation.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc907b44c17cb542b759a78f8c15f76d\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank pointed out earlier this week,<b>Wall Street consensus inflation expectations for 2022 are already well above 2%,</b>which is impossible if inflation is transitory and if there is going to be a deflationary phase after the current burst in transitory inflation ends.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92086971b86a9511afb50387980e3995\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In other words, the Fed is again wrong and sooner or later, 10Y yields which continue to pretend that everything is fine, will face a day of very painful reckoning.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 09:51 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-banks-non-transitory-inflation-meter-just-exploded><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100.\n\nOf ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-banks-non-transitory-inflation-meter-just-exploded\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BAC":"美国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-banks-non-transitory-inflation-meter-just-exploded","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122107992","content_text":"One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100.\n\nOf course, since then it's only gotten worse and the June CPI report released earlier this week revealed another explosion in transitory price pressures. Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.\nBut while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.\n\nIn other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.\nThis, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.\nSo to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevatedpersistent, as in non-transitory, inflation.\n\nThis confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank pointed out earlier this week,Wall Street consensus inflation expectations for 2022 are already well above 2%,which is impossible if inflation is transitory and if there is going to be a deflationary phase after the current burst in transitory inflation ends.\n\nIn other words, the Fed is again wrong and sooner or later, 10Y yields which continue to pretend that everything is fine, will face a day of very painful reckoning.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":170301033,"gmtCreate":1626402207122,"gmtModify":1703759463659,"author":{"id":"4088920533402850","authorId":"4088920533402850","name":"Jamesyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab908c8d5f51b90e7fefc693291bd17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088920533402850","authorIdStr":"4088920533402850"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"power","listText":"power","text":"power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170301033","repostId":"1140693508","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140693508","pubTimestamp":1626400129,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140693508?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 09:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SMEs post sharp recovery in the second quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140693508","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The OCBC SME Index shoots by 8.3 points to 59.5 as small and medium-sized enterprises gain momentum.","content":"<blockquote>\n <b><i>The OCBC SME Index shoots by 8.3 points to 59.5 as small and medium-sized enterprises gain momentum.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were resilient in the second quarter amidst the pandemic and the Heightened Alert measures.</p>\n<p>The latest OCBC SME Index saw an 8.3 point rise to 59.5 for the second quarter, compared to the 41.2 from the first quarter. This is the second quarter that the index turned expansionary.</p>\n<p>In a statement, OCBC said that collections across the 100,000 SMEs represented in its index grew 6% quarter on quarter, driven by improved cross-border trade with Greater China and the ASEAN.</p>\n<p>This offset the continued drag from Food and Beverage and Business Services sectors, which were greatly affected by the restrictions implemented during the Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) period.</p>\n<p>“The promising recovery in SMEs over the past year was supported by a rapid shift towards digitalisation and e-commerce. SMEs are also better poised to emerge from the crisis, building on the strength of Singapore as a growing hub in the post-pandemic time for the services industry, the changing supply chains and the emerging green economy,” said Linus Goh, head of Global Commercial Banking for OCBC Bank.</p>\n<p>The continued demand for medical equipment and the vaccine rollout led to a strong performance from the healthcare manufacturing sub-industry, whose index score rose to 50.0 from the 48.1 recorded in the previous quarter.</p>\n<p>The ICT services sub-index benefited from the demand for digitalisation, with the data processing and software development sector recording a 22% quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue collections.</p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMEs post sharp recovery in the second quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMEs post sharp recovery in the second quarter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 09:48 GMT+8 <a href=https://sbr.com.sg/in-focus/smes-post-sharp-recovery-in-second-quarter><strong>Singapore Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The OCBC SME Index shoots by 8.3 points to 59.5 as small and medium-sized enterprises gain momentum.\n\nSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were resilient in the second quarter amidst the pandemic...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/in-focus/smes-post-sharp-recovery-in-second-quarter\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/in-focus/smes-post-sharp-recovery-in-second-quarter","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140693508","content_text":"The OCBC SME Index shoots by 8.3 points to 59.5 as small and medium-sized enterprises gain momentum.\n\nSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were resilient in the second quarter amidst the pandemic and the Heightened Alert measures.\nThe latest OCBC SME Index saw an 8.3 point rise to 59.5 for the second quarter, compared to the 41.2 from the first quarter. This is the second quarter that the index turned expansionary.\nIn a statement, OCBC said that collections across the 100,000 SMEs represented in its index grew 6% quarter on quarter, driven by improved cross-border trade with Greater China and the ASEAN.\nThis offset the continued drag from Food and Beverage and Business Services sectors, which were greatly affected by the restrictions implemented during the Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) period.\n“The promising recovery in SMEs over the past year was supported by a rapid shift towards digitalisation and e-commerce. SMEs are also better poised to emerge from the crisis, building on the strength of Singapore as a growing hub in the post-pandemic time for the services industry, the changing supply chains and the emerging green economy,” said Linus Goh, head of Global Commercial Banking for OCBC Bank.\nThe continued demand for medical equipment and the vaccine rollout led to a strong performance from the healthcare manufacturing sub-industry, whose index score rose to 50.0 from the 48.1 recorded in the previous quarter.\nThe ICT services sub-index benefited from the demand for digitalisation, with the data processing and software development sector recording a 22% quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue collections.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170977768,"gmtCreate":1626402104854,"gmtModify":1703759458596,"author":{"id":"4088920533402850","authorId":"4088920533402850","name":"Jamesyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab908c8d5f51b90e7fefc693291bd17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088920533402850","authorIdStr":"4088920533402850"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"power","listText":"power","text":"power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170977768","repostId":"1122107992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
