Timok personal page - To The Moon

Timok

Timok

No personal profile

9Follow

1Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-08-18

Should I wait to enter the market?

6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?

2021-08-03

Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-03

Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-27

Can it drop further?

2021-07-24

What happened to the dip

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-24

What happened to the dip

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-24

What happened to the dip

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4089174658483050","uuid":"4089174658483050","gmtCreate":1626072106162,"gmtModify":1627113007539,"name":"Timok","pinyin":"timok","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":7,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.12","exceedPercentage":"60.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.12","exceedPercentage":"60.47%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":5,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":831366645,"gmtCreate":1629289813787,"gmtModify":1676529992216,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should I wait to enter the market?","listText":"Should I wait to enter the market?","text":"Should I wait to enter the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831366645","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119160710?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i> \n <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i> \n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p>\n<p>As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p>\n<p><b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p>\n<p>Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>\n <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>\n <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p>\n<p><b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p>\n<p>However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p>\n<p><b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p>\n<p>At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p>\n<p>It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p>\n<p><b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p>\n<p>Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p>\n<p>So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p>\n<p><u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p>\n<p><b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p>\n<p>Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p>\n<p>Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p>\n<p><b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p>\n<p>The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p>\n<p>Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p>\n<p>August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p>\n<p><u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p>\n<p>Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p>\n<p>If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p>\n<p><b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p>\n<p>But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p>\n<p>What’s worse:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i> \n <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b> \n <b>&nbsp;–</b> \n <i>Todd Harrison</i>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807906559,"gmtCreate":1627993867471,"gmtModify":1703499255321,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","listText":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","text":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807906559","repostId":"1181078046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807908578,"gmtCreate":1627993823894,"gmtModify":1703499254836,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","listText":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","text":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807908578","repostId":"2156116066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803057838,"gmtCreate":1627398007824,"gmtModify":1703489229508,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can it drop further?","listText":"Can it drop further?","text":"Can it drop further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9db790ad6f168220fdfb0cbeec7268c4","width":"1125","height":"2707"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803057838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174581930,"gmtCreate":1627111290220,"gmtModify":1703484446655,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174581930","repostId":"2153388319","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174583519,"gmtCreate":1627111242031,"gmtModify":1703484446168,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174583519","repostId":"2153388319","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174589437,"gmtCreate":1627111147429,"gmtModify":1703484444707,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089174658483050","idStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812b6e8c5787bd11388210d69976839c","width":"1125","height":"2947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174589437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807906559,"gmtCreate":1627993867471,"gmtModify":1703499255321,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","listText":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","text":"Alibaba is a goner at least in the short term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807906559","repostId":"1181078046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174583519,"gmtCreate":1627111242031,"gmtModify":1703484446168,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174583519","repostId":"2153388319","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831366645,"gmtCreate":1629289813787,"gmtModify":1676529992216,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should I wait to enter the market?","listText":"Should I wait to enter the market?","text":"Should I wait to enter the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831366645","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119160710?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i> \n <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i> \n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p>\n<p>As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p>\n<p><b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p>\n<p>Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>\n <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>\n <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p>\n<p><b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p>\n<p>However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p>\n<p><b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p>\n<p>At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p>\n<p>It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p>\n<p><b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p>\n<p>Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p>\n<p>So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p>\n<p><u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p>\n<p><b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p>\n<p>Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p>\n<p>Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p>\n<p><b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p>\n<p>The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p>\n<p>Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p>\n<p>August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p>\n<p><u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p>\n<p>Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p>\n<p>If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p>\n<p><b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p>\n<p>But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p>\n<p>What’s worse:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i> \n <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b> \n <b>&nbsp;–</b> \n <i>Todd Harrison</i>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807908578,"gmtCreate":1627993823894,"gmtModify":1703499254836,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","listText":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","text":"Haha hoping crypto and coinbase recovers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807908578","repostId":"2156116066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174581930,"gmtCreate":1627111290220,"gmtModify":1703484446655,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174581930","repostId":"2153388319","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2153388319","pubTimestamp":1627088419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153388319?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here are Wall Street's favorite big tech stocks as the Nasdaq closes in on another milestone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153388319","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the Nasdaq Composite Index nears 15,000, analysts see upside for Activision Blizzard, Netflix and","content":"<p>As the Nasdaq Composite Index nears 15,000, analysts see upside for Activision Blizzard, Netflix and Baidu, among others</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c007522d36ee30fcaeab059a92a280e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Some 88% of analysts rate Activision Blizzard \"buy,\" and their consensus price target is 27% above the stock's closing price July 23. (Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>All three of the major U.S. stock indexes hit records Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite Index might reach its next milestone -- 15,000 -- next week.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of stocks whose gains have powered the Nasdaq Composite Index's gains this year, along with another list of analysts' favorite stocks among the Nasdaq-100 Index .</p>\n<p>Here's a summary of Friday's action:</p>\n<p>(Note: All price changes in this article exclude dividends.)</p>\n<p><b>Nasdaq-100 winners for 2021</b></p>\n<p>The Nasdaq-100 Index is made up of the 100 largest non-financial companies by market capitalization in the full Nasdaq Composite Index. It is reconstituted each year in December. Both indexes are weighted by market cap, and the Nasdaq-100's market cap of $17.21 trillion is about 73% of the full index. So most of the full Nasdaq's performance is represented by the Nasdaq-100, which is tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$(QQQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>Here are the 10 stocks among the Nasdaq-100 that have risen the most during 2021 through July 23:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Price change -- 2021</td>\n   <td>Price change -- July 23</td>\n   <td>52-week high</td>\n   <td>Date of 52-week high</td>\n   <td>Decline from 52-week high</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Moderna Inc. MRNA</td>\n   <td>233.9%</td>\n   <td>7.8%</td>\n   <td>$349.45</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Applied Materials Inc. AMAT</td>\n   <td>60.4%</td>\n   <td>0.9%</td>\n   <td>$146.00</td>\n   <td>04/05/2021</td>\n   <td>-5.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG</td>\n   <td>57.3%</td>\n   <td>3.4%</td>\n   <td>$2,776.17</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>ASML Holding NV ADR ASML</td>\n   <td>53.4%</td>\n   <td>2.5%</td>\n   <td>$756.78</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-1.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL</td>\n   <td>51.8%</td>\n   <td>3.6%</td>\n   <td>$2,667.98</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.3%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Nvidia Corp.</td>\n   <td>49.8%</td>\n   <td>-0.2%</td>\n   <td>$208.75</td>\n   <td>07/07/2021</td>\n   <td>-6.3%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBay Inc. EBAY</td>\n   <td>46.3%</td>\n   <td>2.1%</td>\n   <td>$73.77</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.3%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Intuit Inc. INTU</td>\n   <td>39.1%</td>\n   <td>1.4%</td>\n   <td>$532.33</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Idexx Laboratories Inc. IDXX</td>\n   <td>38.8%</td>\n   <td>1.6%</td>\n   <td>$696.35</td>\n   <td>07/23/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.4%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>DocuSign Inc. DOCU</td>\n   <td>38.8%</td>\n   <td>0.2%</td>\n   <td>$310.51</td>\n   <td>07/22/2021</td>\n   <td>-0.6%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>CDW Corp. CDW</td>\n   <td>37.3%</td>\n   <td>2.0%</td>\n   <td>$184.58</td>\n   <td>04/16/2021</td>\n   <td>-2.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Source: FactSet</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Actually, there are 11 stocks on the list because the index includes Alphabet Inc.'s Class C <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> and Class A (GOOGL) shares.</p>\n<p>Seven of those stocks hit 52-week highs July 23.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street's favorite stocks in the Nasdaq-100</b></p>\n<p>Here are the 10 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 with \"buy\" or equivalent ratings among at least 75% of analysts polled by FactSet, with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Share \"buy\" ratings</td>\n   <td>Closing price -- July 23</td>\n   <td>Consensus price target</td>\n   <td>Implied 12-month upside potential</td>\n   <td>Price change -- July 23</td>\n   <td>Price change -- 2021</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Baidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU</td>\n   <td>86%</td>\n   <td>$172.66</td>\n   <td>$311.92</td>\n   <td>81%</td>\n   <td>-3.3%</td>\n   <td>-20.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Micron Technology Inc. MU</td>\n   <td>88%</td>\n   <td>$75.94</td>\n   <td>$121.25</td>\n   <td>60%</td>\n   <td>0.5%</td>\n   <td>1.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>JD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD</td>\n   <td>91%</td>\n   <td>$72.29</td>\n   <td>$98.15</td>\n   <td>36%</td>\n   <td>-4.8%</td>\n   <td>-17.8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>NetEase Inc. ADR</td>\n   <td>86%</td>\n   <td>$103.53</td>\n   <td>$134.54</td>\n   <td>30%</td>\n   <td>-8.0%</td>\n   <td>8.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX</td>\n   <td>78%</td>\n   <td>$200.50</td>\n   <td>$259.71</td>\n   <td>30%</td>\n   <td>2.3%</td>\n   <td>-15.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP</td>\n   <td>76%</td>\n   <td>$139.22</td>\n   <td>$177.14</td>\n   <td>27%</td>\n   <td>0.6%</td>\n   <td>0.8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI</td>\n   <td>88%</td>\n   <td>$91.50</td>\n   <td>$116.09</td>\n   <td>27%</td>\n   <td>1.1%</td>\n   <td>-1.5%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Fiserv Inc. FISV</td>\n   <td>85%</td>\n   <td>$111.79</td>\n   <td>$141.27</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>1.6%</td>\n   <td>-1.8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a> Inc. MELI</td>\n   <td>78%</td>\n   <td>$1,613.81</td>\n   <td>$2,021.37</td>\n   <td>25%</td>\n   <td>1.4%</td>\n   <td>-3.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Netflix Inc. NFLX</td>\n   <td>78%</td>\n   <td>$515.41</td>\n   <td>$619.67</td>\n   <td>20%</td>\n   <td>0.7%</td>\n   <td>-4.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Source: FactSet</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. took a beating Friday, and you can see from the three on this list (Baidu Inc. (K3SD.SG), JD.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$(JD)$</a> and NetEase Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$(NTES)$</a>) that this hasn't been a good year for the group. Therese Poletti explained why.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Wall Street's favorite big tech stocks as the Nasdaq closes in on another milestone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Wall Street's favorite big tech stocks as the Nasdaq closes in on another milestone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-favorite-big-tech-stocks-as-the-nasdaq-closes-in-on-another-milestone-11627074982?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the Nasdaq Composite Index nears 15,000, analysts see upside for Activision Blizzard, Netflix and Baidu, among others\nSome 88% of analysts rate Activision Blizzard \"buy,\" and their consensus price ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-favorite-big-tech-stocks-as-the-nasdaq-closes-in-on-another-milestone-11627074982?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BIDU":"百度","MU":"美光科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NFLX":"奈飞","JD":"京东","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-favorite-big-tech-stocks-as-the-nasdaq-closes-in-on-another-milestone-11627074982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153388319","content_text":"As the Nasdaq Composite Index nears 15,000, analysts see upside for Activision Blizzard, Netflix and Baidu, among others\nSome 88% of analysts rate Activision Blizzard \"buy,\" and their consensus price target is 27% above the stock's closing price July 23. (Getty Images)\nAll three of the major U.S. stock indexes hit records Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite Index might reach its next milestone -- 15,000 -- next week.\nBelow is a list of stocks whose gains have powered the Nasdaq Composite Index's gains this year, along with another list of analysts' favorite stocks among the Nasdaq-100 Index .\nHere's a summary of Friday's action:\n(Note: All price changes in this article exclude dividends.)\nNasdaq-100 winners for 2021\nThe Nasdaq-100 Index is made up of the 100 largest non-financial companies by market capitalization in the full Nasdaq Composite Index. It is reconstituted each year in December. Both indexes are weighted by market cap, and the Nasdaq-100's market cap of $17.21 trillion is about 73% of the full index. So most of the full Nasdaq's performance is represented by the Nasdaq-100, which is tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust $(QQQ)$.\nHere are the 10 stocks among the Nasdaq-100 that have risen the most during 2021 through July 23:\n\n\n\nCompany\nPrice change -- 2021\nPrice change -- July 23\n52-week high\nDate of 52-week high\nDecline from 52-week high\n\n\nModerna Inc. MRNA\n233.9%\n7.8%\n$349.45\n07/23/2021\n-0.2%\n\n\nApplied Materials Inc. AMAT\n60.4%\n0.9%\n$146.00\n04/05/2021\n-5.2%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class C GOOG\n57.3%\n3.4%\n$2,776.17\n07/23/2021\n-0.7%\n\n\nASML Holding NV ADR ASML\n53.4%\n2.5%\n$756.78\n07/23/2021\n-1.1%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL\n51.8%\n3.6%\n$2,667.98\n07/23/2021\n-0.3%\n\n\nNvidia Corp.\n49.8%\n-0.2%\n$208.75\n07/07/2021\n-6.3%\n\n\nEBay Inc. EBAY\n46.3%\n2.1%\n$73.77\n07/23/2021\n-0.3%\n\n\nIntuit Inc. INTU\n39.1%\n1.4%\n$532.33\n07/23/2021\n-0.7%\n\n\nIdexx Laboratories Inc. IDXX\n38.8%\n1.6%\n$696.35\n07/23/2021\n-0.4%\n\n\nDocuSign Inc. DOCU\n38.8%\n0.2%\n$310.51\n07/22/2021\n-0.6%\n\n\nCDW Corp. CDW\n37.3%\n2.0%\n$184.58\n04/16/2021\n-2.0%\n\n\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nActually, there are 11 stocks on the list because the index includes Alphabet Inc.'s Class C $(GOOGL)$ and Class A (GOOGL) shares.\nSeven of those stocks hit 52-week highs July 23.\nWall Street's favorite stocks in the Nasdaq-100\nHere are the 10 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 with \"buy\" or equivalent ratings among at least 75% of analysts polled by FactSet, with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets:\n\n\n\nCompany\nShare \"buy\" ratings\nClosing price -- July 23\nConsensus price target\nImplied 12-month upside potential\nPrice change -- July 23\nPrice change -- 2021\n\n\nBaidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU\n86%\n$172.66\n$311.92\n81%\n-3.3%\n-20.2%\n\n\nMicron Technology Inc. MU\n88%\n$75.94\n$121.25\n60%\n0.5%\n1.0%\n\n\nJD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD\n91%\n$72.29\n$98.15\n36%\n-4.8%\n-17.8%\n\n\nNetEase Inc. ADR\n86%\n$103.53\n$134.54\n30%\n-8.0%\n8.1%\n\n\nVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX\n78%\n$200.50\n$259.71\n30%\n2.3%\n-15.2%\n\n\nMicrochip Technology Inc. MCHP\n76%\n$139.22\n$177.14\n27%\n0.6%\n0.8%\n\n\nActivision Blizzard Inc. ATVI\n88%\n$91.50\n$116.09\n27%\n1.1%\n-1.5%\n\n\nFiserv Inc. FISV\n85%\n$111.79\n$141.27\n26%\n1.6%\n-1.8%\n\n\nMercadoLibre Inc. MELI\n78%\n$1,613.81\n$2,021.37\n25%\n1.4%\n-3.7%\n\n\nNetflix Inc. NFLX\n78%\n$515.41\n$619.67\n20%\n0.7%\n-4.7%\n\n\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nChinese stocks listed in the U.S. took a beating Friday, and you can see from the three on this list (Baidu Inc. (K3SD.SG), JD.com Inc. $(JD)$ and NetEase Inc. $(NTES)$) that this hasn't been a good year for the group. Therese Poletti explained why.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803057838,"gmtCreate":1627398007824,"gmtModify":1703489229508,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can it drop further?","listText":"Can it drop further?","text":"Can it drop further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9db790ad6f168220fdfb0cbeec7268c4","width":"1125","height":"2707"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803057838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174589437,"gmtCreate":1627111147429,"gmtModify":1703484444707,"author":{"id":"4089174658483050","authorId":"4089174658483050","name":"Timok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c76197eba46aef3697b5bae2eb0ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089174658483050","authorIdStr":"4089174658483050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happened to the dip","listText":"What happened to the dip","text":"What happened to the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812b6e8c5787bd11388210d69976839c","width":"1125","height":"2947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174589437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}