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Yeenyeen
2022-09-20
[微笑]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-12
$怡和合发(C07.SI)$
😭
Yeenyeen
2022-04-10
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
[Smile]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-09
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
[Smile]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-08
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
[What]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-05
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
[What]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-04
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
[Sad]
Yeenyeen
2022-04-02
$JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD(C07.SI)$
hi
Yeenyeen
2021-07-27
?
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Yeenyeen
2021-07-27
Hi
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Yeenyeen
2021-07-27
?
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15:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股与美债，谁会先调整？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164874043","media":"张明宏观金融研究","summary":"当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至","content":"<blockquote>\n 当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n</blockquote>\n<p>10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至4.5%，达到了自1991年12月以来的新高，当前美国长债利率如此低迷，的确令人惊讶（图2）。1991年11月，美国核心CPI同比增速也为4.5%，但10年期国债收益率高达7.4%。根据美联储估计，2021年美国GDP同比增速有望达到7%。因此无论从经济增长还是通货膨胀来看，当前1.30%的10年期国债收益率的确处于很低水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313199730632d8a9566564984e6b575\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"1269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>目前针对近期美国长期国债利率走低的原因，市场上主要有如此几种解释：第一，当前高企的核心CPI主要是疫情冲击下的短期走高，随着疫情的消退，CPI增速将会逐渐下降；第二，近期全球疫情有再度恶化的迹象，使得全球金融市场上避险情绪再度抬头；第三，由于美国联邦政府债务处于很高水平，美国政府不愿意长期利率过快上升。</p>\n<p>最近两个月以来，美元指数不降反升（图3）。长期美债利率下降与美元指数上升并存，意味着市场上的确存在着较强的避险情绪。但另一方面，如图4所示，目前无论道琼斯工业指数还是纳斯达克综合指数近期都迭创新高，这说明至少在美股市场上，投资者风险情绪还是相当强的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa00977cdb1ca58d794ef51ec3aa8a1\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"1257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>债市与股市双双上涨，通常受到宽松流动性的推动。但目前美联储并没有继续放松政策，仅仅是没有及时收紧政策。未来美联储将以何种速度收紧货币政策，依然存在较大不确定性。</p>\n<p>笔者认为，当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。未来一段市场内，市场可能呈现三种格局：第一，美股继续维持牛市，美债发生调整，10年期国债收益率重返1.50%以上；第二，美债收益率继续处于低位，美股发生剧烈调整；第三，美债与美股同时发生调整。</p>\n<p>目前全球范围内较大的不确定性，让人很难给出上述三种格局各自的概率。但即使如此，对未来潜在调整做好准备，进行适当风险对冲，还是很有必要的。如果非要预测一下的话，短期内美股发生调整的可能性或许更大。</p>","source":"lsy1594114531475","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股与美债，谁会先调整？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股与美债，谁会先调整？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:54 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/477672><strong>张明宏观金融研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至4.5%，达到了自1991年12月以来的新高，当前美国长债利率如此低迷，的确令人惊讶（图2）。1991年11月，美国核心CPI同比增速也为4.5%，但10年期国债收益率高达7.4%。根据美联储估计，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/477672\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/477672","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164874043","content_text":"当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至4.5%，达到了自1991年12月以来的新高，当前美国长债利率如此低迷，的确令人惊讶（图2）。1991年11月，美国核心CPI同比增速也为4.5%，但10年期国债收益率高达7.4%。根据美联储估计，2021年美国GDP同比增速有望达到7%。因此无论从经济增长还是通货膨胀来看，当前1.30%的10年期国债收益率的确处于很低水平。\n\n目前针对近期美国长期国债利率走低的原因，市场上主要有如此几种解释：第一，当前高企的核心CPI主要是疫情冲击下的短期走高，随着疫情的消退，CPI增速将会逐渐下降；第二，近期全球疫情有再度恶化的迹象，使得全球金融市场上避险情绪再度抬头；第三，由于美国联邦政府债务处于很高水平，美国政府不愿意长期利率过快上升。\n最近两个月以来，美元指数不降反升（图3）。长期美债利率下降与美元指数上升并存，意味着市场上的确存在着较强的避险情绪。但另一方面，如图4所示，目前无论道琼斯工业指数还是纳斯达克综合指数近期都迭创新高，这说明至少在美股市场上，投资者风险情绪还是相当强的。\n\n债市与股市双双上涨，通常受到宽松流动性的推动。但目前美联储并没有继续放松政策，仅仅是没有及时收紧政策。未来美联储将以何种速度收紧货币政策，依然存在较大不确定性。\n笔者认为，当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。未来一段市场内，市场可能呈现三种格局：第一，美股继续维持牛市，美债发生调整，10年期国债收益率重返1.50%以上；第二，美债收益率继续处于低位，美股发生剧烈调整；第三，美债与美股同时发生调整。\n目前全球范围内较大的不确定性，让人很难给出上述三种格局各自的概率。但即使如此，对未来潜在调整做好准备，进行适当风险对冲，还是很有必要的。如果非要预测一下的话，短期内美股发生调整的可能性或许更大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014057623,"gmtCreate":1649570658160,"gmtModify":1676534532500,"author":{"id":"4089370067564560","authorId":"4089370067564560","name":"Yeenyeen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a207bee51315ef441aebcc88967d9f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089370067564560","authorIdStr":"4089370067564560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，腾讯音乐跌8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162740645","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月27日，热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，腾讯音乐跌8%，拼多多、京东、百度、小鹏汽车、滴滴跌超7%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，贝壳跌超13%。","content":"<p>7月27日，热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>跌8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超13%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3f986352a57556755e6b792d87ad8f\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，腾讯音乐跌8%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-27 16:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月27日，热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>跌8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超13%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3f986352a57556755e6b792d87ad8f\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","TME":"腾讯音乐","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162740645","content_text":"7月27日，热门中概股盘前继续杀跌，腾讯音乐跌8%，拼多多、京东、百度、小鹏汽车、滴滴跌超7%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，贝壳跌超13%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809227375,"gmtCreate":1627374045697,"gmtModify":1703488638206,"author":{"id":"4089370067564560","authorId":"4089370067564560","name":"Yeenyeen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a207bee51315ef441aebcc88967d9f7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089370067564560","authorIdStr":"4089370067564560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809227375","repostId":"1164874043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
