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2021-08-05

$Novavax(NVAX)$buy

2021-07-23

US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.

U.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show

2021-07-20

Get ready

4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst

2021-07-20

Let it continue to drop

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2021-07-20

Great

4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst

2021-07-18

Awesome

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2021-07-17

Time to buy

Summer Blockbusters Are Back! What That Means for AMC Stock

2021-07-17

A crash is long overdue

Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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It’s not a free market anymore.","listText":"US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.","text":"US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174058570","repostId":"2153984791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153984791","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1627050360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153984791?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153984791","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Q2 may be a peak in activity, but third quarter growth should be strong, research firm says.\n\nJust l","content":"<blockquote>\n Q2 may be a peak in activity, but third quarter growth should be strong, research firm says.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Just like Jeff Bezos' 11 minute trip to space earlier this week, the U.S. economy rocketed higher in the second quarter but is now coming back down to earth, according to data from research firm IHS Markit released Friday .</p>\n<p>The research firm IHS Markit said its flash or preliminary composite output index for the U.S. fell to a four-month low of 59.7 in July. That's down from 63.7 in June.</p>\n<p>\"The provisional PMI data for July point to the pace of economic growth slowing for a second successive month, though importantly this cooling has followed anunprecedented growth spurt in May,\" said Chris Williamson, chief business Economist at IHS Markit.</p>\n<p>\"While the second quarter may therefore represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth according to the PMI, the third quarter is still looking encouragingly strong,\" he added.</p>\n<p>IHS Markit said its flash survey of U.S. manufacturers rose slightly to 63.1 in July from 62.1 in the prior month.</p>\n<p>A similar survey of service-oriented companies -- banks, restaurants, retailers and the like -- dipped to a five-month low of 59.8 from 64.6 in June.</p>\n<p>Inflation and short-term capacity issues remain major sources of uncertainty among businesses. Business optimism about the year ahead fell to the lowest level seen so far this year.</p>\n<p>Workers were receiving higher pay, firms reported. This is important to economists because higher inflation can't be sustained without higher wages.</p>\n<p>Stocks were higher on Friday as the market recovered from a growth scare earlier in the week.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 22:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Q2 may be a peak in activity, but third quarter growth should be strong, research firm says.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Just like Jeff Bezos' 11 minute trip to space earlier this week, the U.S. economy rocketed higher in the second quarter but is now coming back down to earth, according to data from research firm IHS Markit released Friday .</p>\n<p>The research firm IHS Markit said its flash or preliminary composite output index for the U.S. fell to a four-month low of 59.7 in July. That's down from 63.7 in June.</p>\n<p>\"The provisional PMI data for July point to the pace of economic growth slowing for a second successive month, though importantly this cooling has followed anunprecedented growth spurt in May,\" said Chris Williamson, chief business Economist at IHS Markit.</p>\n<p>\"While the second quarter may therefore represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth according to the PMI, the third quarter is still looking encouragingly strong,\" he added.</p>\n<p>IHS Markit said its flash survey of U.S. manufacturers rose slightly to 63.1 in July from 62.1 in the prior month.</p>\n<p>A similar survey of service-oriented companies -- banks, restaurants, retailers and the like -- dipped to a five-month low of 59.8 from 64.6 in June.</p>\n<p>Inflation and short-term capacity issues remain major sources of uncertainty among businesses. Business optimism about the year ahead fell to the lowest level seen so far this year.</p>\n<p>Workers were receiving higher pay, firms reported. This is important to economists because higher inflation can't be sustained without higher wages.</p>\n<p>Stocks were higher on Friday as the market recovered from a growth scare earlier in the week.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153984791","content_text":"Q2 may be a peak in activity, but third quarter growth should be strong, research firm says.\n\nJust like Jeff Bezos' 11 minute trip to space earlier this week, the U.S. economy rocketed higher in the second quarter but is now coming back down to earth, according to data from research firm IHS Markit released Friday .\nThe research firm IHS Markit said its flash or preliminary composite output index for the U.S. fell to a four-month low of 59.7 in July. That's down from 63.7 in June.\n\"The provisional PMI data for July point to the pace of economic growth slowing for a second successive month, though importantly this cooling has followed anunprecedented growth spurt in May,\" said Chris Williamson, chief business Economist at IHS Markit.\n\"While the second quarter may therefore represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth according to the PMI, the third quarter is still looking encouragingly strong,\" he added.\nIHS Markit said its flash survey of U.S. manufacturers rose slightly to 63.1 in July from 62.1 in the prior month.\nA similar survey of service-oriented companies -- banks, restaurants, retailers and the like -- dipped to a five-month low of 59.8 from 64.6 in June.\nInflation and short-term capacity issues remain major sources of uncertainty among businesses. Business optimism about the year ahead fell to the lowest level seen so far this year.\nWorkers were receiving higher pay, firms reported. This is important to economists because higher inflation can't be sustained without higher wages.\nStocks were higher on Friday as the market recovered from a growth scare earlier in the week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171213847,"gmtCreate":1626745812389,"gmtModify":1703764322583,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get ready","listText":"Get ready","text":"Get ready","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171213847","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171210452,"gmtCreate":1626745774576,"gmtModify":1703764320626,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let it continue to drop","listText":"Let it continue to drop","text":"Let it continue to drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171210452","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171122808,"gmtCreate":1626719591004,"gmtModify":1703763944582,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171122808","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179444128,"gmtCreate":1626573973564,"gmtModify":1703761867375,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179444128","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170748134,"gmtCreate":1626456120328,"gmtModify":1703760591952,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170748134","repostId":"2151892500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151892500","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626447300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151892500?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Summer Blockbusters Are Back! What That Means for AMC Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151892500","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Movie releases on the July 9 weekend helped AMC reported its biggest crowds since before the pandemic.","content":"<p>Blockbuster movies have returned to the movie theaters and not a moment too soon for <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:AMC). The international theater chain was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the hardest-hit companies during the pandemic. Nearly all of its revenue comes from bringing folks together in one room to watch films on a large screen.</p>\n<p>Its business was devastated when it had to shut its doors to the viewing public as the world tried to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Major studios either delayed the release of big-ticket films or sent them straight to streaming services, a move that was slowing AMC's sales recovery even as it reopened theaters.</p>\n<h2>Blockbusters are back</h2>\n<p>The July 9 weekend could mark a turning point in the bounce back for movie theater chain AMC. Buoyed by the release of the long-delayed blockbuster film <i>Black Widow</i> from <b>Walt Disney</b>, AMC reported a post-reopening record with 3.2 million moviegoers over the weekend.</p>\n<p>According to estimates, Black Widow generated $158 million in box office sales worldwide. Additionally, another blockbuster from <b>Comcast</b>'s Universal Pictures, <i>F9: The Fast Saga</i>, has earned $542 million. That's just the beginning. More films are on the way as studios have stopped delaying releases.</p>\n<p>It looks as though AMC has made it through the worst of the pandemic. There were moments during the most acute phases of lockdowns when the company's survival was in jeopardy. Management can be commended for urgently raising cash and cutting costs, and ensuring it had the resources to make it through.</p>\n<h2>Fundamentals matter</h2>\n<p>Some of the capital the company raised during the pandemic was through borrowing. Its balance sheet has swelled to contain $5.4 billion in debt, and in the most recent quarter, the company paid interest expenses of $151.5 million. Annualized, its interest expense will be over $600 million.</p>\n<p>What makes that figure troublesome is that the most annual operating income AMC earned over the last decade was $310 million. So while it's great news that big-ticket movies are returning to movie theaters, AMC still has a lot of work to do before it fully bounces back. For instance, even if it matches its pre-pandemic high of $310 million in operating income, AMC will likely still report a loss on the bottom line because of the interest expense.</p>\n<h2>Missed opportunity</h2>\n<p>Management understands the company's issues and is working on raising equity, presumably to pay down debt. It set forth a proposal to shareholders to authorize more shares for sale but withdrew the proposal in the face of negative feedback. Shareholders had the opportunity to help improve the long-run prospects of AMC but were not interested in the idea.</p>\n<p>The fear was that the additional supply of shares in the market could drive down the stock price. And the short-term share price movement appears to be more of a concern for investors in AMC than the long-term fundamentals of the company.</p>\n<p>AMC's role as the focal point for a group of retail traders on Reddit makes the stock trade at a price that appears to be divorced from fundaments. As a result, AMC's stock price could continue higher despite its apparent poor financial circumstances.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Summer Blockbusters Are Back! What That Means for AMC Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSummer Blockbusters Are Back! What That Means for AMC Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 22:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/16/summer-blockbusters-back-what-that-means-for-amc/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Blockbuster movies have returned to the movie theaters and not a moment too soon for AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC). The international theater chain was one of the hardest-hit companies during ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/16/summer-blockbusters-back-what-that-means-for-amc/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/16/summer-blockbusters-back-what-that-means-for-amc/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151892500","content_text":"Blockbuster movies have returned to the movie theaters and not a moment too soon for AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC). The international theater chain was one of the hardest-hit companies during the pandemic. Nearly all of its revenue comes from bringing folks together in one room to watch films on a large screen.\nIts business was devastated when it had to shut its doors to the viewing public as the world tried to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Major studios either delayed the release of big-ticket films or sent them straight to streaming services, a move that was slowing AMC's sales recovery even as it reopened theaters.\nBlockbusters are back\nThe July 9 weekend could mark a turning point in the bounce back for movie theater chain AMC. Buoyed by the release of the long-delayed blockbuster film Black Widow from Walt Disney, AMC reported a post-reopening record with 3.2 million moviegoers over the weekend.\nAccording to estimates, Black Widow generated $158 million in box office sales worldwide. Additionally, another blockbuster from Comcast's Universal Pictures, F9: The Fast Saga, has earned $542 million. That's just the beginning. More films are on the way as studios have stopped delaying releases.\nIt looks as though AMC has made it through the worst of the pandemic. There were moments during the most acute phases of lockdowns when the company's survival was in jeopardy. Management can be commended for urgently raising cash and cutting costs, and ensuring it had the resources to make it through.\nFundamentals matter\nSome of the capital the company raised during the pandemic was through borrowing. Its balance sheet has swelled to contain $5.4 billion in debt, and in the most recent quarter, the company paid interest expenses of $151.5 million. Annualized, its interest expense will be over $600 million.\nWhat makes that figure troublesome is that the most annual operating income AMC earned over the last decade was $310 million. So while it's great news that big-ticket movies are returning to movie theaters, AMC still has a lot of work to do before it fully bounces back. For instance, even if it matches its pre-pandemic high of $310 million in operating income, AMC will likely still report a loss on the bottom line because of the interest expense.\nMissed opportunity\nManagement understands the company's issues and is working on raising equity, presumably to pay down debt. It set forth a proposal to shareholders to authorize more shares for sale but withdrew the proposal in the face of negative feedback. Shareholders had the opportunity to help improve the long-run prospects of AMC but were not interested in the idea.\nThe fear was that the additional supply of shares in the market could drive down the stock price. And the short-term share price movement appears to be more of a concern for investors in AMC than the long-term fundamentals of the company.\nAMC's role as the focal point for a group of retail traders on Reddit makes the stock trade at a price that appears to be divorced from fundaments. As a result, AMC's stock price could continue higher despite its apparent poor financial circumstances.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170741153,"gmtCreate":1626455933572,"gmtModify":1703760590791,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A crash is long overdue","listText":"A crash is long overdue","text":"A crash is long overdue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170741153","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179444128,"gmtCreate":1626573973564,"gmtModify":1703761867375,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179444128","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123523681","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626569903,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123523681?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123523681","media":"CNBC","summary":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column","content":"<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-18 08:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1123523681","content_text":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker, whose market color and investment calls I share on the irregular frequency with which he sends them.\nHis predictions don’t always prove prescient, but he has been more right than wrong, with a particularly impressive record of bold calls around market bottoms and ahead of corrections.\nAs noted in that first writeup in Barron’s in December 2009: “This particular guy is unique in at least two respects. He has no interest in having his name placed in print or pixels. And he is the one commentator I’m aware of who both turned aggressively bearish virtually at the all-time market peak in 2007, then in April began insisting that the March market lows would not be challenged, and that a new cyclical bull market had a long way to run.”\nThis broker’s dispatch to me in April 2009 — just weeks after the ultimate low of a wrenching 18-month bear market and terrifying global credit crisis — was a 12-page single-spaced argument that the financial crisis was over.  This was far from the consensus at the time. A November 2007 piece had called for a brutal bear market, a month after the S&P 500 hit a peak it wouldn’t revisit until 2013 and before most investors even had a bear market on their radar.\nThe intention of airing his views was not to create some gimmick or generate cheap intrigue, but simply to offer the well-grounded thoughts of professional free of institutional constraints or the need to sell investment products.\nBut it did capture readers’ attention and imagination, to the point that requests for updates of the Mystery Broker’s market take come constantly. I continue it strictly because so many readers and viewers have followed his work for years and like to keep up\nAnd, yes, the whole exercise drives some people nuts, whether they think it’s irresponsible (which makes no sense, he gets no benefit and doesn’t hype small stocks that could move in his favor) or insist it’s a fictional alter ego (untrue).\nMystery Broker’s approach\nHe became a broker in the mid-’80s. While there’s long been a guessing game about MB’s identity, he is not someone who’s name anyone would know, he doesn’t otherwise comment publicly on investments.\nAs noted back in 2009: “He doesn’t claim any magic formulas or proprietary systems. His approach is eclectic and inclusive, ranging among economic, technical, historical, valuation and sentiment inputs.” He’ll cite Marty Zweig, Ned Davis and the Value Line Appreciation Potential indicators – fairly old-school inspirations – but doesn’t seem rigidly attached to any one model or style.\nI almost never solicit Mystery Broker’s take, preferring he check in only when it strikes him, often when he changes his market stance or is moved to reiterate his conviction in a prior call. Aside from the broad market commentary, he’ll sometimes make the case for or against individual stocks. He loved wells Fargo to start 2021, as well as GE, for instance.\nMystery Broker sometimes goes deep on a controversial emerging biotech name, the sort of thing I tend not to pass along. He was put off by CNBC’s heavy coverage of the “meme stocks” early this year and let me know it. He and I both have strong views on baseball, which we exchange via email. We’ve never met.\nHow he navigated the pandemic\nIn the past few months, Mystery Broker has been cautious on stocks and has missed a bit of upside. Specifically, he went to a sell (which tends to mean raising cash for clients and himself and hedging equity holdings with index puts) at the close on April 16, with the S&P 500 at 4185. The index went sideways for two months, then lifted to last week’s record up almost 5% from where he called for a correction.\nStill, he’s playing with a lot of house money, having been deftly bullish into the teeth of the March 2020 Covid crash. (He was negative on the market from January last year, though not because he expected either a pandemic or a crash).\nThe individual calls are viewable at the #MysteryBroker hashtag on Twitter, but to cite a few examples: He thought the March 4, 2020, low in the S&P 500 near 2900 would hold; it absolutely didn’t, plunging to about 2200 by the 23rd. But on March 26 he said the bottom was in, and within a month the S&P had recovered back to 2900.\nThen, this in mid-April 2020: He would normally look for a retest of the major low, but not then: ”“Because for the first time in stock market history the consensus is for a retest, a normal retest is not likely to happen.”\nThis was right, as was his preference for riskier cyclical stocks and his update June of last year: “We are in a new bull market...every correction should be bought...every time S&P 500 falls below its 50-day moving average is an extraordinary buying opportunity.”\nS&P 500 with 50-day moving averageFactSet\nAfter that and before predicting a correction three months ago that has yet to occur, he pegged the peak in FAANMG days before they topped last Sept. 1; said in late December the market had “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks” that would pressure the  overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses; and predicted bitcoin would peak coincident with the Coinbase listing (it did). Not perfect, but not bad.\nHis current outlook\nHis is not a system, but a weight-of-the-evidence approach pursued with an open mind and a feel for market cadences earned over more than three decades of economic cycles.\nFollowing up onhis latest update this week, I asked for a broader take on historical echoes and longer-term probabilities. Mystery Broker offers this:\n“I think the current recovery is most similar to the recovery in 2003-04.  A big transition from hyper-growth to value.  Also, valuations are already high after only one year of stock market and economic growth similar to 2003-4, although more extreme now. ” He expects “muted returns for the rest of decade similar to the low returns of the first decade of the 2000s.  See leadership from industrials, healthcare and to some degree financials.”\n“Don’t expect technology to be a big outperformer and semiconductors will be a disappointment especially equipment semis that have benefitted from a few big trends over the last few years. Value, foreign stocks (expect dollar to fall over the next few years) and equal-weighted indices will outperform.  Inflation and interest rates will slowly rise which is different from the last decade.\n“The big surprise will be how old industries adapt to new technology and fight off some of the hot new entries.  There will be a lot of rebounds similar to how the New York Times came back from the dead last decade.”\nI also asked if he’s interested in being identified. The answer: not now, but maybe soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171210452,"gmtCreate":1626745774576,"gmtModify":1703764320626,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let it continue to drop","listText":"Let it continue to drop","text":"Let it continue to drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171210452","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171122808,"gmtCreate":1626719591004,"gmtModify":1703763944582,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171122808","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174058570,"gmtCreate":1627053809390,"gmtModify":1703483510481,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.","listText":"US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.","text":"US economy is rigged by the government and other institutions. It’s not a free market anymore.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174058570","repostId":"2153984791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170748134,"gmtCreate":1626456120328,"gmtModify":1703760591952,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170748134","repostId":"2151892500","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899179783,"gmtCreate":1628171431542,"gmtModify":1703502517579,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>buy","text":"$Novavax(NVAX)$buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7064108e661b9b501d287aef04492f10","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899179783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171213847,"gmtCreate":1626745812389,"gmtModify":1703764322583,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get ready","listText":"Get ready","text":"Get ready","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171213847","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152827296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626663600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152827296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152827296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This incredible rally has to end with a spectacular crash sometime ... right? Maybe.","content":"<p>Does the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.</p>\n<p>If you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.</p>\n<h3>1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names</h3>\n<p>I confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, <b>AMC Entertainment</b>.</p>\n<p>Most investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.</p>\n<h3>2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities</h3>\n<p>At first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.</p>\n<p>To be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.</p>\n<p>It's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b> fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name <b>The Southern Company</b> fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.</p>\n<p>The point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.</p>\n<h3>3. I'm adding (a little) gold</h3>\n<p>While most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.</p>\n<p>I'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.</p>\n<p>Commodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the <b>SPDR Gold Trust</b>.</p>\n<h3>4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing</h3>\n<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.</p>\n<p>You read that right.</p>\n<p>There are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.</p>\n<p>The other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's<i> not</i> going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Ways I'm Preparing for the Stock Market Bubble to Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/18/4-ways-im-preparing-for-stock-market-bubble-burst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152827296","content_text":"Does the S&P 500's nearly 100% gain from last March's low have you a little worried about a pullback? You're not alone. Even though much of this move was a recovery from the steep sell-off sparked by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of it has also just been plain old bullishness ... perhaps a little too much. Stocks are still chugging along, but at times, it feels like the only thing keeping the rally going is its momentum. That's not good.\nIf you're concerned the market bubble is going to pop soon, feel free to rip a few pages out of my personal playbook. Notice that none of them are particularly complicated moves.\n1. I'm scaling out of frothier, more speculative names\nI confess, some of the names I've picked up over the course of the past year or so aren't exactly the sorts of stocks I fully intended to hold for the long haul. They were closer to being bets than investments, which can be fun and rewarding but not exactly safe when the market starts to unravel. As the old adage goes, the higher they fly, the farther they fall. That's especially true when a company can't even come close to justifying its stock price with actual fundamentals. Yes, I'm looking at you, AMC Entertainment.\nMost investors innately know this is the smart-money move to make when the broad market is closer to a major high than a major low. Some investors, however, just need to hear someone else say it. I just did.\n2. I'm prioritizing cash over equities\nAt first glance, this seems a lot like the aforementioned move -- backing off on my exposure to riskier equities. After all, if I'm selling anything, those proceeds are inherently turned into cash anyway.\nTo be clear, however, I'm not merely swapping out my more speculative, vulnerable names for more reliable blue chips. I'm reducing my overall exposure to the market by converting a sizable stake of my holdings to cash.\nIt's not always a fully understood (or even believed) facet of investing, but \"safe\" stocks like consumer goods names and utilities companies aren't actually protection from a correction. Shares of consumer packaged goods giant Procter & Gamble fell nearly 24% between last year's February high and March low when the coronavirus began to spread across the world, including within the U.S. Utility name The Southern Company fell 39% during this timeframe. Both recovered -- and then some -- but neither actually offered any true defense from sweeping weakness.\nThe point is, during market corrections, there's really no place to hide. You'll just have to let the long-term holdings you're committed to take their lumps on faith they'll bounce back. If you don't have that faith with any particular stock, just replace it with cash until the dust settles.\n3. I'm adding (a little) gold\nWhile most stocks are going to be dragged lower by a market-wide correction, not every sort of holding is a stock. There are also bonds and commodities, which still trade independently of equities. That doesn't preclude them from pulling back if and when the stock market does. But if they do peel back, they're doing so independently of the broad market.\nI'm not bothering with bonds right now. Interest rates are pointlessly low, and with inflation seemingly on the verge of racing out of control, bonds are little more than a coin toss at this time anyway.\nCommodities, however, are a different story. If anything, they've become bigger movers against a rising inflation backdrop and a Federal Reserve that's being increasingly pressured to respond. Should stocks tank, commodities -- already pumped and primed -- may see a swell of demand that drives prices higher. The easiest way to plug into this dynamic is with a simple pick like the SPDR Gold Trust.\n4. Mostly, I'm doing nothing\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, I'm doing nothing about a possible market correction.\nYou read that right.\nThere are two schools of thought behind the decision to do nothing rather than trying to evade the impact of a correction. The first of these is the simple fact that most of my holdings really are long-haul positions I had (and have) every intention of hanging onto through bear markets. One of the greatest upsides of a legitimate buy-and-hold approach is that you don't even have to worry about temporary headwinds.\nThe other idea at work here is the fact that guessing the market's next near-term reversal is just darn difficult to do ... so much so that most people don't do it very well. Indeed, the effort to time the stock market's peaks and valleys often does more harm than good, by virtue of getting you out too soon or too late, or getting you back in too soon or too late. The market's going to do what the market's going to do in its own time, and it's not going to telegraph what's around the corner to anyone. The best way to win that game is by not playing it at all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170741153,"gmtCreate":1626455933572,"gmtModify":1703760590791,"author":{"id":"4089429616586030","authorId":"4089429616586030","name":"DaftTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012afae3979df52fe7fa3a3bf97fe537","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089429616586030","authorIdStr":"4089429616586030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A crash is long overdue","listText":"A crash is long overdue","text":"A crash is long overdue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170741153","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&amp;P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a &gt;60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&amp;P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising &gt;100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall &gt;50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&amp;P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like&nbsp;SPY&nbsp;and&nbsp;DIA&nbsp;could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}