+Follow
Shariq
No personal profile
4
Follow
0
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
Shariq
2021-07-19
Good news
Sorry, the original content has been removed
Shariq
2021-07-19
Hello
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield deepens slide, now below 1.20% as Dow skids down 800 points early Monday
Shariq
2021-07-19
Ok
Why automakers are closing this loophole in your car lease
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4089430289586310","uuid":"4089430289586310","gmtCreate":1626327810314,"gmtModify":1626327810314,"name":"Shariq","pinyin":"shariq","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":4,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":171334071,"gmtCreate":1626705815093,"gmtModify":1703763749912,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171334071","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171392203,"gmtCreate":1626705277902,"gmtModify":1703763733487,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171392203","repostId":"2152656055","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152656055","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1626704880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152656055?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield deepens slide, now below 1.20% as Dow skids down 800 points early Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152656055","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Treasurys rallied on Monday amid a selloff in equities, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.20","content":"<p>Treasurys rallied on Monday amid a selloff in equities, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.20%, deepening its descent toward a February low.</p>\n<p>Investors were buying government debt, driving the prices up and yields down, as worries about COVID-19's delta variant were gathering steam in a stock market that some view as priced to perfection.</p>\n<p>The 10-year Treasury note was at 1.193%, which was around its lowest level since early February, FactSet data show.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 800 points and headed for its sharpest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-day drop since late October. The S&P 500 index was trading 1.9% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 1.6% on the day.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield deepens slide, now below 1.20% as Dow skids down 800 points early Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBenchmark 10-year Treasury yield deepens slide, now below 1.20% as Dow skids down 800 points early Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-19 22:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Treasurys rallied on Monday amid a selloff in equities, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.20%, deepening its descent toward a February low.</p>\n<p>Investors were buying government debt, driving the prices up and yields down, as worries about COVID-19's delta variant were gathering steam in a stock market that some view as priced to perfection.</p>\n<p>The 10-year Treasury note was at 1.193%, which was around its lowest level since early February, FactSet data show.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 800 points and headed for its sharpest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-day drop since late October. The S&P 500 index was trading 1.9% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 1.6% on the day.</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152656055","content_text":"Treasurys rallied on Monday amid a selloff in equities, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.20%, deepening its descent toward a February low.\nInvestors were buying government debt, driving the prices up and yields down, as worries about COVID-19's delta variant were gathering steam in a stock market that some view as priced to perfection.\nThe 10-year Treasury note was at 1.193%, which was around its lowest level since early February, FactSet data show.\nMeanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 800 points and headed for its sharpest one-day drop since late October. The S&P 500 index was trading 1.9% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 1.6% on the day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171069337,"gmtCreate":1626696591829,"gmtModify":1703763499899,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171069337","repostId":"2152632587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152632587","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1626688260,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152632587?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 17:51","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Why automakers are closing this loophole in your car lease","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152632587","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If you're shopping around for a lease-buyout offer, you may be out of luck.\n\nSeveral automakers are ","content":"<blockquote>\n If you're shopping around for a lease-buyout offer, you may be out of luck.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Several automakers are cracking down on a loophole that has long allowed drivers of leased vehicles to cash in on higher-than-expected resale values. In an effort aimed at boosting their dealers' used car inventories, Acura and Honda (7267.TO) are the latest brands to join a growing list of automakers to require leased vehicles to be turned in at their dealerships.</p>\n<p>Previously, lessees could shop around and take advantage of a higher buyout offer from a competing brand's dealer or even a car-buying service such as Carvana <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">$(CVNA)$</a> or Vroom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRM\">$(VRM)$</a>. In these situations, the dealers pay the lease payoff -- based on the car's residual value when it was originally leased -- directly to the automaker's finance arm, and the shopper drives off in a new vehicle. That leaves the dealer who paid off the lease with what's generally a late-model, lower-model vehicle to sell.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Honda said American Honda Finance Corporation -- which administers leases for Honda and Acura models -- will alert lessees that they must turn in their vehicle to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the automaker's dealers. General Motors <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a> and Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a> have both enforced a similar policy. American Honda Finance Corporation says it will reconsider the decision later this year, however.</p>\n<p>There's still one loophole, though: lessees can pay the car off, though this either requires writing a hefty check or securing separate financing. Handling a buyout privately can be more challenging than letting a dealership do it.</p>\n<p>Consumers have been taking advantage of the loophole, especially as used-car values have skyrocketed due to a shortage of parts needed to assemble new vehicles. In some cases, dealers and car-buying services have been willing to buy out a lease for far more than the car's lease payoff value.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why automakers are closing this loophole in your car lease</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy automakers are closing this loophole in your car lease\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-19 17:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If you're shopping around for a lease-buyout offer, you may be out of luck.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Several automakers are cracking down on a loophole that has long allowed drivers of leased vehicles to cash in on higher-than-expected resale values. In an effort aimed at boosting their dealers' used car inventories, Acura and Honda (7267.TO) are the latest brands to join a growing list of automakers to require leased vehicles to be turned in at their dealerships.</p>\n<p>Previously, lessees could shop around and take advantage of a higher buyout offer from a competing brand's dealer or even a car-buying service such as Carvana <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">$(CVNA)$</a> or Vroom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRM\">$(VRM)$</a>. In these situations, the dealers pay the lease payoff -- based on the car's residual value when it was originally leased -- directly to the automaker's finance arm, and the shopper drives off in a new vehicle. That leaves the dealer who paid off the lease with what's generally a late-model, lower-model vehicle to sell.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Honda said American Honda Finance Corporation -- which administers leases for Honda and Acura models -- will alert lessees that they must turn in their vehicle to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the automaker's dealers. General Motors <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a> and Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a> have both enforced a similar policy. American Honda Finance Corporation says it will reconsider the decision later this year, however.</p>\n<p>There's still one loophole, though: lessees can pay the car off, though this either requires writing a hefty check or securing separate financing. Handling a buyout privately can be more challenging than letting a dealership do it.</p>\n<p>Consumers have been taking advantage of the loophole, especially as used-car values have skyrocketed due to a shortage of parts needed to assemble new vehicles. In some cases, dealers and car-buying services have been willing to buy out a lease for far more than the car's lease payoff value.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152632587","content_text":"If you're shopping around for a lease-buyout offer, you may be out of luck.\n\nSeveral automakers are cracking down on a loophole that has long allowed drivers of leased vehicles to cash in on higher-than-expected resale values. In an effort aimed at boosting their dealers' used car inventories, Acura and Honda (7267.TO) are the latest brands to join a growing list of automakers to require leased vehicles to be turned in at their dealerships.\nPreviously, lessees could shop around and take advantage of a higher buyout offer from a competing brand's dealer or even a car-buying service such as Carvana $(CVNA)$ or Vroom $(VRM)$. In these situations, the dealers pay the lease payoff -- based on the car's residual value when it was originally leased -- directly to the automaker's finance arm, and the shopper drives off in a new vehicle. That leaves the dealer who paid off the lease with what's generally a late-model, lower-model vehicle to sell.\nIn a statement, Honda said American Honda Finance Corporation -- which administers leases for Honda and Acura models -- will alert lessees that they must turn in their vehicle to one of the automaker's dealers. General Motors $(GM)$ and Ford $(F)$ have both enforced a similar policy. American Honda Finance Corporation says it will reconsider the decision later this year, however.\nThere's still one loophole, though: lessees can pay the car off, though this either requires writing a hefty check or securing separate financing. Handling a buyout privately can be more challenging than letting a dealership do it.\nConsumers have been taking advantage of the loophole, especially as used-car values have skyrocketed due to a shortage of parts needed to assemble new vehicles. In some cases, dealers and car-buying services have been willing to buy out a lease for far more than the car's lease payoff value.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":171334071,"gmtCreate":1626705815093,"gmtModify":1703763749912,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171334071","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171392203,"gmtCreate":1626705277902,"gmtModify":1703763733487,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171392203","repostId":"2152656055","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171069337,"gmtCreate":1626696591829,"gmtModify":1703763499899,"author":{"id":"4089430289586310","authorId":"4089430289586310","name":"Shariq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089430289586310","authorIdStr":"4089430289586310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171069337","repostId":"2152632587","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
