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Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":171775385,"gmtCreate":1626769435247,"gmtModify":1703764835586,"author":{"id":"4089588974647620","authorId":"4089588974647620","name":"Penguin7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089588974647620","idStr":"4089588974647620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171775385","repostId":"1152856122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152856122","pubTimestamp":1626767867,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152856122?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GM Confirms It's Working On A Third Electric Pickup And It Will Be A Full-Size Truck","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152856122","media":"Benzinga","summary":"General Motors Co is working on a GMC electric pickup truck to follow the GMC Hummer EV and the electric Chevrolet Silverado, a company executive said at a media event on Monday, asreportedby CNBC.What Happened: The Hummer EV pickup wasunveiledin October last year with deliveries slated to begin this fall. The electric Chevrolet Silveradowas confirmedin April.Duncan Aldred, global head of GMC, did not disclose the launch timeline but said the vehicle is in advanced stages of planning, as per CN","content":"<p><b>General Motors Co</b> is working on a GMC electric pickup truck to follow the GMC Hummer EV and the electric Chevrolet Silverado, a company executive said at a media event on Monday, asreportedby CNBC.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b> The Hummer EV pickup wasunveiledin October last year with deliveries slated to begin this fall. The electric Chevrolet Silveradowas confirmedin April.</p>\n<p>Duncan Aldred, global head of GMC, did not disclose the launch timeline but said the vehicle is in advanced stages of planning, as per CNBC. Aldred said the pickup would be a full-size truck.</p>\n<p>Aldred said GMC sees EV adoption happening \"fairly quickly,\" especially with the support of President Joe Biden, the Detroit Free Pressreportedseparately. The executive added that the automaker is \"confident it is well-positioned\" in the \"huge segment\" that still has \"relatively few competitors.\"</p>\n<p><b>Why It Matters:</b>The Detroit-based legacy automaker is boosting investments to switch 40% of the company’s U.S. volume to battery electric vehicles by the end of 2025.</p>\n<p>GM is pumping in $35 billion through 2025 to develop electric and autonomous vehicles and aims to launch 30 all-electric models globally by 2025.</p>\n<p>Automakers around the world, including <b>Volkswagen Ag</b> are setting tighter deadlines and setting aside billions of dollars for a fast switchover to a fully electric vehicle lineup, a disruption brought in and accelerated by Elon Musk-led <b>Tesla Inc</b> .</p>\n<p>GM will be among the first automakers to launch an electric pickup later this year.<b>Amazon.com Inc</b>-backed Rivian has deliveries lined up later this year.<b>Ford Motor Co</b> has also revealed plans to launch the F-15- Lightning truck next year.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action:</b>GM shares closed 2.3% lower at $54.18 on Monday.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GM Confirms It's Working On A Third Electric Pickup And It Will Be A Full-Size Truck</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGM Confirms It's Working On A Third Electric Pickup And It Will Be A Full-Size Truck\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 15:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22054246/gm-confirms-its-working-on-a-third-electric-pickup-and-it-will-be-a-full-size-truck><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>General Motors Co is working on a GMC electric pickup truck to follow the GMC Hummer EV and the electric Chevrolet Silverado, a company executive said at a media event on Monday, asreportedby CNBC.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22054246/gm-confirms-its-working-on-a-third-electric-pickup-and-it-will-be-a-full-size-truck\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22054246/gm-confirms-its-working-on-a-third-electric-pickup-and-it-will-be-a-full-size-truck","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152856122","content_text":"General Motors Co is working on a GMC electric pickup truck to follow the GMC Hummer EV and the electric Chevrolet Silverado, a company executive said at a media event on Monday, asreportedby CNBC.\nWhat Happened: The Hummer EV pickup wasunveiledin October last year with deliveries slated to begin this fall. The electric Chevrolet Silveradowas confirmedin April.\nDuncan Aldred, global head of GMC, did not disclose the launch timeline but said the vehicle is in advanced stages of planning, as per CNBC. Aldred said the pickup would be a full-size truck.\nAldred said GMC sees EV adoption happening \"fairly quickly,\" especially with the support of President Joe Biden, the Detroit Free Pressreportedseparately. The executive added that the automaker is \"confident it is well-positioned\" in the \"huge segment\" that still has \"relatively few competitors.\"\nWhy It Matters:The Detroit-based legacy automaker is boosting investments to switch 40% of the company’s U.S. volume to battery electric vehicles by the end of 2025.\nGM is pumping in $35 billion through 2025 to develop electric and autonomous vehicles and aims to launch 30 all-electric models globally by 2025.\nAutomakers around the world, including Volkswagen Ag are setting tighter deadlines and setting aside billions of dollars for a fast switchover to a fully electric vehicle lineup, a disruption brought in and accelerated by Elon Musk-led Tesla Inc .\nGM will be among the first automakers to launch an electric pickup later this year.Amazon.com Inc-backed Rivian has deliveries lined up later this year.Ford Motor Co has also revealed plans to launch the F-15- Lightning truck next year.\nPrice Action:GM shares closed 2.3% lower at $54.18 on Monday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171945302,"gmtCreate":1626703988606,"gmtModify":1703763693816,"author":{"id":"4089588974647620","authorId":"4089588974647620","name":"Penguin7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089588974647620","idStr":"4089588974647620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power","listText":"Power","text":"Power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171945302","repostId":"2152363743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152363743","pubTimestamp":1626703200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152363743?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna's Joining the S&P 500: What's Next for the Hot Vaccine Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152363743","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee that the biotech's share price will continue climbing.","content":"<p>(July 19) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> rose more than 5% in morning tarding, reached record high.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1feabb7b1efe112684a8cca75133e6a3\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>You never hear anyone refer to the \"S&P 501 index\" or the \"S&P 499 index.\" No, it's the <b>S&P 500 index</b>, for a good reason: The index always includes the 500 largest companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges. When <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> company is removed from the list, another <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is added. Always.</p>\n<p>That's what is about to happen. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALXN\">Alexion Pharmaceuticals</a></b> currently ranks as one of only six biotech stocks on the S&P 500. However, <b>AstraZeneca</b> will soon acquire the company, meaning <b>S&P Global</b> (NYSE:SPGI) will have to replace Alexion on its heavily followed index.</p>\n<p>As it turns out, another biotech stock is set to take Alexion's spot: <b>Moderna</b> (NASDAQ:MRNA). S&P Global announced last Thursday evening that Moderna would be added to the S&P 500, effective prior to the market open on July 21. Shares of Moderna jumped over 10% on Friday, after soaring nearly 150% year to date already. What's next for this hot vaccine stock?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182332242f3e0118e76d38617bff229c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images.</p>\n<h3>Using the past as a guide</h3>\n<p>There's an old saying that \"history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.\" Assuming the adage has some truth to it, we could potentially learn how Moderna's share price might fare by looking at what happened with other stocks that were added to the S&P 500.</p>\n<p>So far in 2021, 10 stocks have been added to the index as a result of acquisitions, spinoffs, and market-cap changes.</p>\n<p>The most recent of these was <b>Organon</b> (NYSE:OGN). S&P Global announced on May 27 that the drugmaker, which was spun off from <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a></b>, would be added to the S&P 500 index, effective June 4. Organon's shares climbed only around 4% between the date of the announcement and its addition to the index. But afterward, the pharma stock fell close to 15%.</p>\n<p>S&P Global announced on May 10 that <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRL\">Charles River Laboratories</a></b> (NYSE:CRL) would join the S&P 500 index effective May 14. The diagnostics stock fell a little in the days leading up to its addition to the index. However, after its inclusion on the S&P 500, Charles River Labs stock went on a roll, rising nearly 17%.</p>\n<p>There is one stock that might offer a closer parallel to Moderna. <b>NXP Semiconductors</b> (NASDAQ:NXPI) stock jumped around 10% between the announcement of its addition to the S&P 500 on March 12, and when it joined the index on March 22. That's nearly exactly the same level as Moderna's shares leaped on Friday. So what happened next with NXP? The stock moved up and down like a yo-yo, and is now 5% lower.</p>\n<h3>Different dynamics</h3>\n<p>You've probably decided that history is a poor rhymer -- at least when it comes to how stocks perform when they're added to the S&P 500 index. There's a good reason why it's hard to discern a clear pattern: Each stock has different dynamics at work.</p>\n<p>Sure, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the S&P 500 index must now add shares of Moderna to their holdings. However, they were likely already doing so to some extent, even before the announcement about Moderna's addition to the index.</p>\n<p>What matters most for Moderna stock now is exactly the same thing that mattered most before last Thursday. And that critical factor is how demand for the company's COVID-19 vaccine will hold up.</p>\n<p>Based on the stock's trajectory in the weeks and months leading up to S&P Global's announcement that Moderna was replacing Alexion in the S&P 500, investors are expecting that demand for Moderna's vaccine will remain quite strong. They could very well be right.</p>\n<h3>The variant variable</h3>\n<p>However, whether or not investors' optimism is warranted depends on one variable that is most likely to impact Moderna's fortunes over the coming months and years: the emergence of coronavirus variants of concern. Right now, the most important to watch is the Delta variant.</p>\n<p>So far, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine appears to be holding up relatively well against the Delta variant, as well as against other variants of concern. However, there's a real possibility that booster doses could be needed for at least some individuals in the not-too-distant future. Also, other variants could arise for which current vaccines are significantly less effective.</p>\n<p>For Moderna to remain a member of the S&P 500, its market cap must remain large enough to be among the top 500 stocks. Whether that will happen depends on recurring demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. And that demand depends largely how coronavirus variants affect the pandemic.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna's Joining the S&P 500: What's Next for the Hot Vaccine Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna's Joining the S&P 500: What's Next for the Hot Vaccine Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 22:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/modernas-joining-the-sp-500-whats-next-for-the-hot/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(July 19) Moderna, Inc. rose more than 5% in morning tarding, reached record high.\n\nYou never hear anyone refer to the \"S&P 501 index\" or the \"S&P 499 index.\" No, it's the S&P 500 index, for a good ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/modernas-joining-the-sp-500-whats-next-for-the-hot/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182332242f3e0118e76d38617bff229c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/modernas-joining-the-sp-500-whats-next-for-the-hot/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152363743","content_text":"(July 19) Moderna, Inc. rose more than 5% in morning tarding, reached record high.\n\nYou never hear anyone refer to the \"S&P 501 index\" or the \"S&P 499 index.\" No, it's the S&P 500 index, for a good reason: The index always includes the 500 largest companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges. When one company is removed from the list, another one is added. Always.\nThat's what is about to happen. Alexion Pharmaceuticals currently ranks as one of only six biotech stocks on the S&P 500. However, AstraZeneca will soon acquire the company, meaning S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) will have to replace Alexion on its heavily followed index.\nAs it turns out, another biotech stock is set to take Alexion's spot: Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA). S&P Global announced last Thursday evening that Moderna would be added to the S&P 500, effective prior to the market open on July 21. Shares of Moderna jumped over 10% on Friday, after soaring nearly 150% year to date already. What's next for this hot vaccine stock?\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nUsing the past as a guide\nThere's an old saying that \"history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.\" Assuming the adage has some truth to it, we could potentially learn how Moderna's share price might fare by looking at what happened with other stocks that were added to the S&P 500.\nSo far in 2021, 10 stocks have been added to the index as a result of acquisitions, spinoffs, and market-cap changes.\nThe most recent of these was Organon (NYSE:OGN). S&P Global announced on May 27 that the drugmaker, which was spun off from Merck, would be added to the S&P 500 index, effective June 4. Organon's shares climbed only around 4% between the date of the announcement and its addition to the index. But afterward, the pharma stock fell close to 15%.\nS&P Global announced on May 10 that Charles River Laboratories (NYSE:CRL) would join the S&P 500 index effective May 14. The diagnostics stock fell a little in the days leading up to its addition to the index. However, after its inclusion on the S&P 500, Charles River Labs stock went on a roll, rising nearly 17%.\nThere is one stock that might offer a closer parallel to Moderna. NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) stock jumped around 10% between the announcement of its addition to the S&P 500 on March 12, and when it joined the index on March 22. That's nearly exactly the same level as Moderna's shares leaped on Friday. So what happened next with NXP? The stock moved up and down like a yo-yo, and is now 5% lower.\nDifferent dynamics\nYou've probably decided that history is a poor rhymer -- at least when it comes to how stocks perform when they're added to the S&P 500 index. There's a good reason why it's hard to discern a clear pattern: Each stock has different dynamics at work.\nSure, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the S&P 500 index must now add shares of Moderna to their holdings. However, they were likely already doing so to some extent, even before the announcement about Moderna's addition to the index.\nWhat matters most for Moderna stock now is exactly the same thing that mattered most before last Thursday. And that critical factor is how demand for the company's COVID-19 vaccine will hold up.\nBased on the stock's trajectory in the weeks and months leading up to S&P Global's announcement that Moderna was replacing Alexion in the S&P 500, investors are expecting that demand for Moderna's vaccine will remain quite strong. They could very well be right.\nThe variant variable\nHowever, whether or not investors' optimism is warranted depends on one variable that is most likely to impact Moderna's fortunes over the coming months and years: the emergence of coronavirus variants of concern. Right now, the most important to watch is the Delta variant.\nSo far, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine appears to be holding up relatively well against the Delta variant, as well as against other variants of concern. However, there's a real possibility that booster doses could be needed for at least some individuals in the not-too-distant future. Also, other variants could arise for which current vaccines are significantly less effective.\nFor Moderna to remain a member of the S&P 500, its market cap must remain large enough to be among the top 500 stocks. Whether that will happen depends on recurring demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. And that demand depends largely how coronavirus variants affect the pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171946171,"gmtCreate":1626703929393,"gmtModify":1703763691375,"author":{"id":"4089588974647620","authorId":"4089588974647620","name":"Penguin7","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089588974647620","idStr":"4089588974647620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171946171","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
