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万军无兵之行稳至远编

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万军无兵之行稳至远编

2023-04-07

‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.

万军无兵之行稳至远编

2023-01-11

this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can

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万军无兵之行稳至远编

2022-12-13

I wonder who will buy this junk stock?

Palantir: Yes, It's Ridiculous

万军无兵之行稳至远编

2022-11-22

‌$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational currencies and aim for decentralization. I wonder what real use and purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period

万军无兵之行稳至远编

2022-09-02

‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Run as fast as u can.

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之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting&nbsp;beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting&nbsp;beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","text":"‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946335214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951372980,"gmtCreate":1673408800740,"gmtModify":1676538832191,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","listText":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","text":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951372980","repostId":"1171839713","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923767488,"gmtCreate":1670914927644,"gmtModify":1676538459239,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?&nbsp;","listText":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?&nbsp;","text":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923767488","repostId":"2291755653","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2291755653","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670894843,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291755653?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Yes, It's Ridiculous","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291755653","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc.'s underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Palantir Technologies Inc.&#39;s underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in the major benchmark indices, but more generally due to overly high expectations and an unreasonably high valuation.</li><li>Currently, one piece of positive news follows the next - but that is no guarantee of sales growth shortly. That was also the case in the past quarters.</li><li>The EPS expectations seem ridiculously positive to me - given the projected slowdown in revenue growth, analysts foresee Palantir Technologies&#39; EPS numbers will grow in a strictly straight line through 2024.</li><li>The situation is not good for Palantir in terms of risk-reward profile - at least if you follow my SOTP valuation model.</li><li>I do not recommend buying Palantir at current levels.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7164d65989bc851cf93a0f891451958e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><h2>Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>It is now mid-December, which means it is time to update my thesis regarding Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) stock, as all my previous calls regarding this company aged well inone form or another:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7138a8302fc1f6928ceb8cc39f22e713\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TipRanks [as of December 12]</span></p><p>In this article, I reiterate my bearish thesis that PLTR remains an overvalued company whose valuation is based only on high future expectations and strong sales growth, which meanwhile, has slowed recently. This has led PLTR to perform relatively weak even compared to the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP.IND) - chances are this underperformance will continue for a while until we see real improvements. I do not recommend buying PLTR, even after its 61% decline YTD.</p><h2>Why do I think so?</h2><p>First off, let me start with some good news for PLTR - the company continues to sign new commercial contracts at a relatively astronomical pace, adding names like Beckett Collectibles,Hertz, and Crisis24 to its customer base in recent months. Not to mention other positive news for the company, such as the expansion of modernization work with the FDA or the renewed partnership with the CDC.</p><p>Having been watching PLTR for a long time (sinceOct 5, 2021), I know that such news pieces, even if they sound positive (&#34;new contracts = new revenue stream&#34;), in reality, do not always speak of an acceleration of the company&#39;s growth. In terms of IR/PR, Palantir is doing its job very well - in fact, the company spends over 38% of its sales on sales and marketing expenses (as of September 30, 2022), which is 2.5% higher than the previous quarter and above the median of other SaaS (Software as a Service) companies:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93fe9015a7281f01ea410e09a3b338e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s work, based on YCharts</span></p><p>News after news comes out, and bullish investors, even those who bought the stock above $20, continue to feed their confirmation biases and confidently hold the stock in a long-term portfolio, hoping for the best somewhere in the future (preferably not too far away).</p><p>I decided to see how the number of positive news about new contracts and partnership agreements correlates with the actual growth of the company&#39;s revenues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209dcc5cacdb7ccee2c96da3fbffa628\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s calculations, Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Q4 2022 is not over yet, and the amount of positive news (those about new contracts and partnerships) has already reached the amount we saw in Q1 and Q2 2022, when PLTR grew by 48.8% and 49.13% y-o-y, respectively.</p><p>Every new contract or partnership the company signs lead to long-term revenue and creates a backlog of orders - meaning that positive news does not usually show up immediately on the company&#39;s income statement. Therefore, as you may have noticed, the amount of such positive news in a quarter does not correlate strongly with what kind of growth the company then reports. However, PLTR has developed a relatively high revenue base over the years that has resulted in stagnant growth despite the overall backlog - which is why, despite all the positive news, analysts see revenue growth continuing to stagnate in Q4 2022.</p><p>Even though the Q4 2022 revenue growth forecast is almost 2 times lower than the long-term CAGR (about 30%) that Alex Karp (the CEO) has talked about many times, retail investors looking at the plethora of good news around the company continue to believe in his words - as evidenced by SocialSentiment.io&#39;s rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61ec6e0df25260536619d8401cd0a73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SocialSentiment.io, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>For comparison, here you can see the retail sentiment on Microsoft (MSFT) stock, which has fallen by only 26.7% since the beginning of the year:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb2383cbe3e97a28f6ea175b23e71dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SocialSentiment.io, MSFT</span></p><p>From this, I conclude that retail investors, who were optimistic about PLTR at the beginning (the IPO or a bit later), still are bullish because of all the &#34;good news&#34;, although the sales forecasts over the past 3 months have been revised downwards by the Street in 7 out of 8 cases.</p><p>But at the same time, analysts have raised their EPS forecasts 8 out of 9 times (in the same period), claiming that the company will increase its EPS by 270% in FY2023 (from 5 cents to 17 cents per share):</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3d0abb021178daa7f395e3ca2a1fa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha date, PLTR, Earnings Estimates</span></p><p>This is what strikes me as ridiculous - with such a slowdown in revenue growth as we are currently seeing based on analysts&#39; forecasts, they believe EPS will grow in a strictly straight line - and at a time of rising rates and generally deteriorating business development conditions. To understand why such a forecast is off, you only need to look at the past - it is not a guide to the future, but it does allow us to assess how the company had the opportunity to grow in the same way against a backdrop of much milder macro conditions, but for some reason did not.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9decc75ebac7f008066744dd32fdb80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s calculations, based on Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>I do not see any good reason why this should change overnight starting next quarter. On a GAAP accounting basis, PLTR is still a deeply unprofitable company with an EBIT margin of -13% (vs. -8.8% last quarter) and EPS of -$0.06 (vs. -$0.05 in Q3 2021). I do not see any scenario where the company can catch up so quickly in such a short time (only 2 years).</p><h2>The valuation still does not give a good risk-reward profile</h2><p>If you read my latest article on Palantir, you probably remember how I calculated the &#34;relatively fair&#34; value per share.</p><p>In short, I updated the Sum-Of-The-Parts valuation model, which was based on comparing price-to-sales multiples of various Palantir&#39;s peers (in both of its business segments) with projected revenue growth rates for the next year (FY2023). By expressing the company multiples in terms of projected growth rates, we get a rough idea of how much the revenue-based valuation depends on what percentage of revenue growth is priced in by the Street.</p><p>Last time, we got a model result suggesting Palantir was &#34;relatively fairly&#34; valued - its forwarding price-to-earnings ratio was roughly in line with what analysts at WS thought its revenue growth would be in 2023. Now, however, we see how the situation has deteriorated slightly for the company, even though PLTR has fallen about 7% since that thesis was published (now PLTR is trading at a premium of about the same amount):</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24bc300cdcfbda4f98fafc85333db4\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"1847\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s calculations</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef89d0c102ca1623de5798f65c269273\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s work, sensitivity table analysis</span></p><p>If the company&#39;s growth is 2% higher in 2 business segments at once (Government and Commercial), then PLTR is undervalued by about 11.8%. However, if the actual sales growth is 2% lower (also for 2 segments at once), then the overvaluation will be more than twice higher - about 24%.<i>So the situation is not good for PLTR in terms of risk-reward profile</i>- at least if my SOTP valuation model makes sense to you.</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Once again, I have to conclude that PLTR&#39;s underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in the major benchmark indices, but more generally due to overly high expectations and an unreasonably high valuation. As was the case a year ago, we are now dealing with roughly the same conditions for the continuation of this very poor performance - analysts are still expecting huge growth from PLTR (quarterly EPS CAGR of 21.5% over the next 9 quarters), which is not clear how it will be realized against the backdrop of stagnant revenue growth (quarterly CAGR of just 4.9% over the same period).</p><p>In turn, the company&#39;s valuation has only worsened based on my SOTP model, although the stock has only accelerated its slide since the last update of this model, losing another 7% in value.</p><p>My conclusions are, of course, fraught with risk - retail investors are far from the only buyers of PLTR drawdowns, as they are supported by Stanley Druckenmiller and maybe other big believers. I have already explained why you should not follow these purchases, but I could be wrong and the RSI divergence that is showing on the daily chart right now will lead to an explosive rise in prices.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18f504515bc636cda11e2588476a8d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TrendSpider, PLTR, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>However, I would not buy PLTR on technical analysis grounds alone, as the risk of further downward repricing of expectations or negative EPS/sales surprises against the backdrop of a P/S ratio of &gt;7.7x further fuels my bearish sentiment.</p><p>I do not recommend buying PLTR at current levels.</p><p><i>This article is written by Danil Sereda for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Yes, It's Ridiculous</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Yes, It's Ridiculous\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564030-palantir-yes-its-ridiculous><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc.'s underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in the major benchmark indices, but more generally due to overly high expectations and an unreasonably...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564030-palantir-yes-its-ridiculous\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564030-palantir-yes-its-ridiculous","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291755653","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies Inc.'s underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in the major benchmark indices, but more generally due to overly high expectations and an unreasonably high valuation.Currently, one piece of positive news follows the next - but that is no guarantee of sales growth shortly. That was also the case in the past quarters.The EPS expectations seem ridiculously positive to me - given the projected slowdown in revenue growth, analysts foresee Palantir Technologies' EPS numbers will grow in a strictly straight line through 2024.The situation is not good for Palantir in terms of risk-reward profile - at least if you follow my SOTP valuation model.I do not recommend buying Palantir at current levels.Andreas Rentz/Getty Images EntertainmentIntro & ThesisIt is now mid-December, which means it is time to update my thesis regarding Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) stock, as all my previous calls regarding this company aged well inone form or another:TipRanks [as of December 12]In this article, I reiterate my bearish thesis that PLTR remains an overvalued company whose valuation is based only on high future expectations and strong sales growth, which meanwhile, has slowed recently. This has led PLTR to perform relatively weak even compared to the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP.IND) - chances are this underperformance will continue for a while until we see real improvements. I do not recommend buying PLTR, even after its 61% decline YTD.Why do I think so?First off, let me start with some good news for PLTR - the company continues to sign new commercial contracts at a relatively astronomical pace, adding names like Beckett Collectibles,Hertz, and Crisis24 to its customer base in recent months. Not to mention other positive news for the company, such as the expansion of modernization work with the FDA or the renewed partnership with the CDC.Having been watching PLTR for a long time (sinceOct 5, 2021), I know that such news pieces, even if they sound positive (\"new contracts = new revenue stream\"), in reality, do not always speak of an acceleration of the company's growth. In terms of IR/PR, Palantir is doing its job very well - in fact, the company spends over 38% of its sales on sales and marketing expenses (as of September 30, 2022), which is 2.5% higher than the previous quarter and above the median of other SaaS (Software as a Service) companies:Author's work, based on YChartsNews after news comes out, and bullish investors, even those who bought the stock above $20, continue to feed their confirmation biases and confidently hold the stock in a long-term portfolio, hoping for the best somewhere in the future (preferably not too far away).I decided to see how the number of positive news about new contracts and partnership agreements correlates with the actual growth of the company's revenues.Author's calculations, Seeking Alpha dataQ4 2022 is not over yet, and the amount of positive news (those about new contracts and partnerships) has already reached the amount we saw in Q1 and Q2 2022, when PLTR grew by 48.8% and 49.13% y-o-y, respectively.Every new contract or partnership the company signs lead to long-term revenue and creates a backlog of orders - meaning that positive news does not usually show up immediately on the company's income statement. Therefore, as you may have noticed, the amount of such positive news in a quarter does not correlate strongly with what kind of growth the company then reports. However, PLTR has developed a relatively high revenue base over the years that has resulted in stagnant growth despite the overall backlog - which is why, despite all the positive news, analysts see revenue growth continuing to stagnate in Q4 2022.Even though the Q4 2022 revenue growth forecast is almost 2 times lower than the long-term CAGR (about 30%) that Alex Karp (the CEO) has talked about many times, retail investors looking at the plethora of good news around the company continue to believe in his words - as evidenced by SocialSentiment.io's rating:SocialSentiment.io, author's notesFor comparison, here you can see the retail sentiment on Microsoft (MSFT) stock, which has fallen by only 26.7% since the beginning of the year:SocialSentiment.io, MSFTFrom this, I conclude that retail investors, who were optimistic about PLTR at the beginning (the IPO or a bit later), still are bullish because of all the \"good news\", although the sales forecasts over the past 3 months have been revised downwards by the Street in 7 out of 8 cases.But at the same time, analysts have raised their EPS forecasts 8 out of 9 times (in the same period), claiming that the company will increase its EPS by 270% in FY2023 (from 5 cents to 17 cents per share):Seeking Alpha date, PLTR, Earnings EstimatesThis is what strikes me as ridiculous - with such a slowdown in revenue growth as we are currently seeing based on analysts' forecasts, they believe EPS will grow in a strictly straight line - and at a time of rising rates and generally deteriorating business development conditions. To understand why such a forecast is off, you only need to look at the past - it is not a guide to the future, but it does allow us to assess how the company had the opportunity to grow in the same way against a backdrop of much milder macro conditions, but for some reason did not.Author's calculations, based on Seeking AlphaI do not see any good reason why this should change overnight starting next quarter. On a GAAP accounting basis, PLTR is still a deeply unprofitable company with an EBIT margin of -13% (vs. -8.8% last quarter) and EPS of -$0.06 (vs. -$0.05 in Q3 2021). I do not see any scenario where the company can catch up so quickly in such a short time (only 2 years).The valuation still does not give a good risk-reward profileIf you read my latest article on Palantir, you probably remember how I calculated the \"relatively fair\" value per share.In short, I updated the Sum-Of-The-Parts valuation model, which was based on comparing price-to-sales multiples of various Palantir's peers (in both of its business segments) with projected revenue growth rates for the next year (FY2023). By expressing the company multiples in terms of projected growth rates, we get a rough idea of how much the revenue-based valuation depends on what percentage of revenue growth is priced in by the Street.Last time, we got a model result suggesting Palantir was \"relatively fairly\" valued - its forwarding price-to-earnings ratio was roughly in line with what analysts at WS thought its revenue growth would be in 2023. Now, however, we see how the situation has deteriorated slightly for the company, even though PLTR has fallen about 7% since that thesis was published (now PLTR is trading at a premium of about the same amount):Source: Author's calculationsAuthor's work, sensitivity table analysisIf the company's growth is 2% higher in 2 business segments at once (Government and Commercial), then PLTR is undervalued by about 11.8%. However, if the actual sales growth is 2% lower (also for 2 segments at once), then the overvaluation will be more than twice higher - about 24%.So the situation is not good for PLTR in terms of risk-reward profile- at least if my SOTP valuation model makes sense to you.Bottom LineOnce again, I have to conclude that PLTR's underperformance in 2022 is not just due to a general decline in the major benchmark indices, but more generally due to overly high expectations and an unreasonably high valuation. As was the case a year ago, we are now dealing with roughly the same conditions for the continuation of this very poor performance - analysts are still expecting huge growth from PLTR (quarterly EPS CAGR of 21.5% over the next 9 quarters), which is not clear how it will be realized against the backdrop of stagnant revenue growth (quarterly CAGR of just 4.9% over the same period).In turn, the company's valuation has only worsened based on my SOTP model, although the stock has only accelerated its slide since the last update of this model, losing another 7% in value.My conclusions are, of course, fraught with risk - retail investors are far from the only buyers of PLTR drawdowns, as they are supported by Stanley Druckenmiller and maybe other big believers. I have already explained why you should not follow these purchases, but I could be wrong and the RSI divergence that is showing on the daily chart right now will lead to an explosive rise in prices.TrendSpider, PLTR, author's notesHowever, I would not buy PLTR on technical analysis grounds alone, as the risk of further downward repricing of expectations or negative EPS/sales surprises against the backdrop of a P/S ratio of >7.7x further fuels my bearish sentiment.I do not recommend buying PLTR at current levels.This article is written by Danil Sereda for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968955703,"gmtCreate":1669109682203,"gmtModify":1676538153377,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ &nbsp;</a>‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational&nbsp;currencies and aim for&nbsp;decentralization. I wonder what real use and&nbsp;purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ &nbsp;</a>‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational&nbsp;currencies and aim for&nbsp;decentralization. I wonder what real use and&nbsp;purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","text":"‌$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational currencies and aim for decentralization. I wonder what real use and purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968955703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939399130,"gmtCreate":1662052489725,"gmtModify":1676536796654,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Run as fast as u can.","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Run as fast as u can.","text":"‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Run as fast as u can.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939399130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"content":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter.","text":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter.","html":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9939399130,"gmtCreate":1662052489725,"gmtModify":1676536796654,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Run as fast as u can.","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Run as fast as u can.","text":"‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Run as fast as u can.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939399130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"content":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter.","text":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter.","html":"brought 800 shares at 22 and cut loss at 11 after realised that this stock is not going to make it. channel my fund to somewhere else and recover 50% since then. just move on go next chapter."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923767488,"gmtCreate":1670914927644,"gmtModify":1676538459239,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?&nbsp;","listText":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?&nbsp;","text":"I wonder who will buy this junk stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923767488","repostId":"2291755653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946335214,"gmtCreate":1680857948738,"gmtModify":1680858013360,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting&nbsp;beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting&nbsp;beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","text":"‌$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ‌This rubbish company will contoinue make lose and keep painting beautiful picture. dump and run while u can.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946335214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951372980,"gmtCreate":1673408800740,"gmtModify":1676538832191,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","listText":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","text":"this is scam stock. run from it as soon as u can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951372980","repostId":"1171839713","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171839713","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673408584,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171839713?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-11 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Single-Digit Prices Likely To Persist In 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171839713","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStock prices of Palantir Technologies plunged into the single-digit range in May 2022 and hav","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stock prices of Palantir Technologies plunged into the single-digit range in May 2022 and have largely stayed there since then.</li><li>This article is to caution potential investors who are tempted to bottom fish about the ongoing risks.</li><li>Looking ahead, I see the stock prices keep being trapped in a single-digit trading range for multiple reasons.</li><li>The stock faces large earning uncertainties. Valuation is still lofty even with mid-single-digit prices. And its financial position shows some concerning signs too.</li><li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Envision Early Retirement get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554bfffe59edb9acf6bf12d15a231da8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>hapabapa</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Potential investors may find Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) currently in an interesting position. As a high-growth stock, it responded more sensitively to the overall economic conditions and business cycles. As seen from the chart below, just about 1 year ago, the stock wastrading at about $17.5 with a P/sales ratio of 20x. To put things under perspective, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) on average trades at a 5x P/sales ratio. During 2022, PLTR&#39;s stock prices have declined to the current $6.6 range, a decline of about 60%. And many of the sharp declines occurred at huge selling volumes too as highlighted by the yellow boxes in the chart below.</p><p>Such a large price correction deflated its bubble valuation by a large degree and there are indeed many positives to be said about PLTR. First, due to the ~60% price decline as just mentioned, the stock&#39;s valuation is in a much more reasonable regime now. Its P/S ratio sits at 7.3x. Undoubtedly, it is still quite expensive (GOOG trades at 4.2x P/S ratio currently in contrast). But a 7.3x P/S is not in an alarming bubble anymore. Second, the business growth potential is quite robust, especially when/if the overall economic conditions improve. The government sector is an important and resilient source of revenue. And PLTR&#39;s core business is to build and deploy software platforms that can serve as the central operating systems for its large government customers. A good and recent example involved its collaboration with Lockheed Martin (LMT) to accelerate Aegis and the Navy&#39;s future integrated combat software system.</p><p>However, there are certainly headwinds too. In the remainder of this article, I will dive into the positives and negatives of the stock more closely. But overall, I see the stock prices keep being trapped in a single-digit trading range for multiple reasons in the near future. As such, my overall thesis is that if you are a long-term investor, you should wait for better opportunities. While if you are a swing trader, you can prepare for a trading window between $5 and $10 in the next year or so.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87b585ce01b32a3078ab18fd74b7a43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><h2>PLTR&#39;s positives</h2><p>As just mentioned, there are many positives to be said about PLTR as you can see from the many other SA authors who are more bullish on the stocks. Without repeating too much what they have said, let me just add a few comments that are less often discussed.</p><p>First, PLTR enjoys a capital-light business model. As an example, the following plot displays PLTR&#39;s total depreciation and amortization (&#34;DA&#34;) and also its CAPEX expenditures in the past few quarters. Here I will use these to approximate its maintenance and growth CAPEX spending, respectively. Details of these concepts and their differences can be found in my earlier articles. As seen, its DA has been on average only about $12M per quarter during 2022 and CAPEX only about $5M on average. For a business that generates more than $450M in quarterly revenues, PLTR pushes the capital-light model to the extreme in my view.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593493f774510271ec50af22f2543fe6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Second, as a result of its extremely capital-light business model, the business&#39; true economic earning power, or owners&#39; earnings (&#34;OE&#34;), is actually much better than its accounting earnings (i.e., the commonly quoted EPS). And as a direct result, its PE multiple is lower than on the surface if it is calculated using its OE instead of the accounting EPS. As an example, the next chart compares PLTR&#39;s accounting EPS, OE, and also its FCF per share (free cash flow) in recent quarters on a TTM basis.</p><p>The method I used to obtain its OE is the Greenwald method, as detailed in his book entitled Value Investing or my earlier articles. As you can see, PLTR&#39;s OE has been also better than its accounting EPS. And the OE has become positive and remained positive since the March 2021 quarter even though its accounting EPS remains in the red. For the most recent quarter of Sept 2022, my estimate for its OE is about 6-7 cents per share on a TTM basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a065639486e3efe217c1e97f21b7d652\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>PLTR&#39;s negatives</h2><p>However, there are negatives too. As aforementioned, the government sector is an important and resilient source of revenue for PLTR. However, during periods of economic uncertainty like what we are going through now, its major government clients are nonetheless subject to a number of uncertainties. These uncertainties include budget constraints, policy changes, and also the possibility of a full-scale economic recession. The timing and scale of any new deals can be hard to determine and contract renewals are not guaranteed either. It has recognized the issues. And management is trying to diversify its revenue sources by attracting customers from the private sector. However, these initiatives are still in their early phase.</p><p>The consensus estimates seem to take note of the uncertain earning prospects. To wit, the earnings revisions for the last 3 months reflect a quite gloomy outlook. As seen, only 1 analyst submitted an upward EPS revision while a total of 7 analysts submitted downward EPS revisions. Furthermore, the downward revisions are quite substantial, in the range of 72% to 30% in the next 1 or 2 years as seen.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c3a82706a872d8a4d468cce83a29805\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Second, its current PE multiples are still too high in my view. As mentioned earlier, the recent correction has brought its P/S multiple to 7.3x, still about 2x more expensive than the overall market. In terms of PE multiples, the valuation is just unsustainable in my view. Due to its negative EPS as mentioned above, its TTM PE is meaningless. And its FWD PE is 142x for FY1 and 38x for FY2. Such PEs are not only expensive on an absolute basis but also very expensive when compared to some of its peers such as TTD and GOOG.</p><p>Admittedly, as mentioned in an earlier section, its accounting ESP systematically understates its owner&#39;s earnings. But even when we consider its PE multiple on an OE basis, its current PE is still in the range of triple digits ($6.6 share prices on 6-7 cents of OE per share TTM). Even if its prices fall to $5, the lower bound of my forecast price range, its PE on an OE basis would still be above 70x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed32f765b16c247a584cd9124311608\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Other risks and final thoughts</h2><p>Besides the risks analyzed above, PLTR&#39;s financial strength is also a bit concerning. It goes without saying that its financial position is weaker than the likes of GOOG. Even when compared to smaller and less-mature players such as TTD and TYL, its financial strength is relatively weak by a good margin. As you can see from the following chart, Altman&#39;s Z-score currently hovers around 0.45 (compare to 3.9 for TTD and 2.33 for TYL. As a rule of thumb, a Z-score around ~3 is regarded as safe and a score below ~1 is regarded as a red flag.</p><p>To conclude, I foresee its stock prices trapped in a single-digit range in the next year or so given the above uncertainties on both sides. As such, my overall impression is that the stock is mostly suitable for speculative swing investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e151ccd18ed8c8186b72488015bbbe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Single-Digit Prices Likely To Persist In 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Single-Digit Prices Likely To Persist In 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-11 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568975-palantir-single-digit-prices-likely-to-persist-in-2023><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStock prices of Palantir Technologies plunged into the single-digit range in May 2022 and have largely stayed there since then.This article is to caution potential investors who are tempted to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568975-palantir-single-digit-prices-likely-to-persist-in-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568975-palantir-single-digit-prices-likely-to-persist-in-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171839713","content_text":"SummaryStock prices of Palantir Technologies plunged into the single-digit range in May 2022 and have largely stayed there since then.This article is to caution potential investors who are tempted to bottom fish about the ongoing risks.Looking ahead, I see the stock prices keep being trapped in a single-digit trading range for multiple reasons.The stock faces large earning uncertainties. Valuation is still lofty even with mid-single-digit prices. And its financial position shows some concerning signs too.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Envision Early Retirement get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »hapabapaThesisPotential investors may find Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) currently in an interesting position. As a high-growth stock, it responded more sensitively to the overall economic conditions and business cycles. As seen from the chart below, just about 1 year ago, the stock wastrading at about $17.5 with a P/sales ratio of 20x. To put things under perspective, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) on average trades at a 5x P/sales ratio. During 2022, PLTR's stock prices have declined to the current $6.6 range, a decline of about 60%. And many of the sharp declines occurred at huge selling volumes too as highlighted by the yellow boxes in the chart below.Such a large price correction deflated its bubble valuation by a large degree and there are indeed many positives to be said about PLTR. First, due to the ~60% price decline as just mentioned, the stock's valuation is in a much more reasonable regime now. Its P/S ratio sits at 7.3x. Undoubtedly, it is still quite expensive (GOOG trades at 4.2x P/S ratio currently in contrast). But a 7.3x P/S is not in an alarming bubble anymore. Second, the business growth potential is quite robust, especially when/if the overall economic conditions improve. The government sector is an important and resilient source of revenue. And PLTR's core business is to build and deploy software platforms that can serve as the central operating systems for its large government customers. A good and recent example involved its collaboration with Lockheed Martin (LMT) to accelerate Aegis and the Navy's future integrated combat software system.However, there are certainly headwinds too. In the remainder of this article, I will dive into the positives and negatives of the stock more closely. But overall, I see the stock prices keep being trapped in a single-digit trading range for multiple reasons in the near future. As such, my overall thesis is that if you are a long-term investor, you should wait for better opportunities. While if you are a swing trader, you can prepare for a trading window between $5 and $10 in the next year or so.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataPLTR's positivesAs just mentioned, there are many positives to be said about PLTR as you can see from the many other SA authors who are more bullish on the stocks. Without repeating too much what they have said, let me just add a few comments that are less often discussed.First, PLTR enjoys a capital-light business model. As an example, the following plot displays PLTR's total depreciation and amortization (\"DA\") and also its CAPEX expenditures in the past few quarters. Here I will use these to approximate its maintenance and growth CAPEX spending, respectively. Details of these concepts and their differences can be found in my earlier articles. As seen, its DA has been on average only about $12M per quarter during 2022 and CAPEX only about $5M on average. For a business that generates more than $450M in quarterly revenues, PLTR pushes the capital-light model to the extreme in my view.Source: Seeking Alpha dataSecond, as a result of its extremely capital-light business model, the business' true economic earning power, or owners' earnings (\"OE\"), is actually much better than its accounting earnings (i.e., the commonly quoted EPS). And as a direct result, its PE multiple is lower than on the surface if it is calculated using its OE instead of the accounting EPS. As an example, the next chart compares PLTR's accounting EPS, OE, and also its FCF per share (free cash flow) in recent quarters on a TTM basis.The method I used to obtain its OE is the Greenwald method, as detailed in his book entitled Value Investing or my earlier articles. As you can see, PLTR's OE has been also better than its accounting EPS. And the OE has become positive and remained positive since the March 2021 quarter even though its accounting EPS remains in the red. For the most recent quarter of Sept 2022, my estimate for its OE is about 6-7 cents per share on a TTM basis.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataPLTR's negativesHowever, there are negatives too. As aforementioned, the government sector is an important and resilient source of revenue for PLTR. However, during periods of economic uncertainty like what we are going through now, its major government clients are nonetheless subject to a number of uncertainties. These uncertainties include budget constraints, policy changes, and also the possibility of a full-scale economic recession. The timing and scale of any new deals can be hard to determine and contract renewals are not guaranteed either. It has recognized the issues. And management is trying to diversify its revenue sources by attracting customers from the private sector. However, these initiatives are still in their early phase.The consensus estimates seem to take note of the uncertain earning prospects. To wit, the earnings revisions for the last 3 months reflect a quite gloomy outlook. As seen, only 1 analyst submitted an upward EPS revision while a total of 7 analysts submitted downward EPS revisions. Furthermore, the downward revisions are quite substantial, in the range of 72% to 30% in the next 1 or 2 years as seen.Source: Seeking Alpha dataSecond, its current PE multiples are still too high in my view. As mentioned earlier, the recent correction has brought its P/S multiple to 7.3x, still about 2x more expensive than the overall market. In terms of PE multiples, the valuation is just unsustainable in my view. Due to its negative EPS as mentioned above, its TTM PE is meaningless. And its FWD PE is 142x for FY1 and 38x for FY2. Such PEs are not only expensive on an absolute basis but also very expensive when compared to some of its peers such as TTD and GOOG.Admittedly, as mentioned in an earlier section, its accounting ESP systematically understates its owner's earnings. But even when we consider its PE multiple on an OE basis, its current PE is still in the range of triple digits ($6.6 share prices on 6-7 cents of OE per share TTM). Even if its prices fall to $5, the lower bound of my forecast price range, its PE on an OE basis would still be above 70x.Source: Seeking Alpha dataOther risks and final thoughtsBesides the risks analyzed above, PLTR's financial strength is also a bit concerning. It goes without saying that its financial position is weaker than the likes of GOOG. Even when compared to smaller and less-mature players such as TTD and TYL, its financial strength is relatively weak by a good margin. As you can see from the following chart, Altman's Z-score currently hovers around 0.45 (compare to 3.9 for TTD and 2.33 for TYL. As a rule of thumb, a Z-score around ~3 is regarded as safe and a score below ~1 is regarded as a red flag.To conclude, I foresee its stock prices trapped in a single-digit range in the next year or so given the above uncertainties on both sides. As such, my overall impression is that the stock is mostly suitable for speculative swing investors.Source: Seeking Alpha dataThis article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968955703,"gmtCreate":1669109682203,"gmtModify":1676538153377,"author":{"id":"4089869950727250","authorId":"4089869950727250","name":"万军无兵 之 行稳至远编","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089869950727250","authorIdStr":"4089869950727250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ &nbsp;</a>‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational&nbsp;currencies and aim for&nbsp;decentralization. I wonder what real use and&nbsp;purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ &nbsp;</a>‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational&nbsp;currencies and aim for&nbsp;decentralization. I wonder what real use and&nbsp;purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","text":"‌$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ‌Crypto created from the ideas of untrust to the convensational currencies and aim for decentralization. I wonder what real use and purpose it serve? Is it safer than currencies that back up by countries? i dun think so. It just a scam. period","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968955703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}