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2022-04-13
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2021-09-09
$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$
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2021-09-09
$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$
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2021-08-31
$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$
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2021-08-07
nice
@家哥的小黑屋:“解禁曲線”出現？快手進入了我的射程
Styleunme
2021-07-29
Gogogo
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2021-07-29
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2021-07-29
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2021-07-29
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Styleunme
2021-07-29
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2021-07-25
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> ，破發了。。。。。。之前我對快手的價格一直不怎麼發表意見，畢竟上市前幾天市場過分熱情，價格打到太高。這次我準備說說，特別是當解禁來臨，我很關注快手是否能走出大型互聯網公司股價的經典走勢——解禁曲線。1還是先說基本面問題以及過去這幾個月的下跌原因快手之所以特別吸引我的注意，主要是。。。。。。上市之後漲得太火爆了。。。市值一度超過了1.7萬億港幣。當時市場對快手商業模式的基本判斷是這樣的：穩住直播相關業務，線上營銷（廣告）和電商很具有想象力，二者有一個能夠實現突破，估值的上漲空間就打開了。如果海外市場拓展順利，那確實就起飛了。那個時間點市場熱情非常高漲，按照1.7萬億的市值來看，當時那個估值的隱含邏輯是——快手已經把上面說到的，做成了。但市場總是要降溫的，從2月份開始各大互聯網巨頭都開始了一波下跌，快手前幾周漲得確實有點太猛了，所以跌得有點就更多。於是看着K線找理由的人就來了。我太熟悉這幫分析人士了，隨着股價上上下下，一個公司的業務在他們嘴裏也介乎“成了”和“沒戲”之間，反覆橫跳。最近的一些市場人士分析蹦出來說，快手信息流廣告和電商很難做啊，抖音最後會是贏家通","listText":"最近中概股有點鬧心，前幾天教育股被血洗，後面延伸到大型互聯網公司都受到了很大影響。這種大型公司下跌一定要拆成兩個部分來看：一是基本面的問題。純粹靠商業模式的公司、因爲壟斷對社會造成負外部性的公司、輕資產高槓杆的公司業務都會受到很大的影響——監管壓力；二是估值問題。投資者對這類巨頭的風險偏好需要重新估計，以前的互聯網快速發展、打着擦邊球發展的的時代已經過去了。所以我們可以看到騰訊阿里受到了影響，被點了名的美團下跌更猛，被安全審查的滴滴則一上市就開始暴跌。我很關注的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> ，破發了。。。。。。之前我對快手的價格一直不怎麼發表意見，畢竟上市前幾天市場過分熱情，價格打到太高。這次我準備說說，特別是當解禁來臨，我很關注快手是否能走出大型互聯網公司股價的經典走勢——解禁曲線。1還是先說基本面問題以及過去這幾個月的下跌原因快手之所以特別吸引我的注意，主要是。。。。。。上市之後漲得太火爆了。。。市值一度超過了1.7萬億港幣。當時市場對快手商業模式的基本判斷是這樣的：穩住直播相關業務，線上營銷（廣告）和電商很具有想象力，二者有一個能夠實現突破，估值的上漲空間就打開了。如果海外市場拓展順利，那確實就起飛了。那個時間點市場熱情非常高漲，按照1.7萬億的市值來看，當時那個估值的隱含邏輯是——快手已經把上面說到的，做成了。但市場總是要降溫的，從2月份開始各大互聯網巨頭都開始了一波下跌，快手前幾周漲得確實有點太猛了，所以跌得有點就更多。於是看着K線找理由的人就來了。我太熟悉這幫分析人士了，隨着股價上上下下，一個公司的業務在他們嘴裏也介乎“成了”和“沒戲”之間，反覆橫跳。最近的一些市場人士分析蹦出來說，快手信息流廣告和電商很難做啊，抖音最後會是贏家通","text":"最近中概股有點鬧心，前幾天教育股被血洗，後面延伸到大型互聯網公司都受到了很大影響。這種大型公司下跌一定要拆成兩個部分來看：一是基本面的問題。純粹靠商業模式的公司、因爲壟斷對社會造成負外部性的公司、輕資產高槓杆的公司業務都會受到很大的影響——監管壓力；二是估值問題。投資者對這類巨頭的風險偏好需要重新估計，以前的互聯網快速發展、打着擦邊球發展的的時代已經過去了。所以我們可以看到騰訊阿里受到了影響，被點了名的美團下跌更猛，被安全審查的滴滴則一上市就開始暴跌。我很關注的$快手-W(01024)$ 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11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"付鹏：这次巨变不同以往，中概股估值体系可能变化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188110243","media":"格隆汇","summary":"整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？","content":"<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：</p>\n<p>DIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；</p>\n<p>对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；</p>\n<p>对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；</p>\n<p>这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；</p>\n<p>现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；</p>\n<p>之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”</p>\n<p>此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？</p>\n<p>如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；</p>\n<p>所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；</p>\n<p>对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n付鹏：这次巨变不同以往，中概股估值体系可能变化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 11:20 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478021><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478021","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1188110243","content_text":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；\n对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；\n这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；\n现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；\n之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”\n此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？\n如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；\n所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；\n对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value 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","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801459767","repostId":"1129095809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129095809","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627528048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129095809?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:07","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"【异动】恒生科技指数涨逾7%，京东、美团齐齐大涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129095809","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月29日，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至逾7%，创盘中最大单日涨幅，京东集团涨逾10%，美团、哔哩哔哩涨近10%，腾讯控股涨超8%，创1月25日以来最大涨幅。\n同时，SaaS概念股显著反弹，明源云、中国有赞","content":"<p>7月29日，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至逾7%，创盘中最大单日涨幅，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团涨逾10%，美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超8%，创1月25日以来最大涨幅。</p>\n<p>同时，SaaS概念股显著反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08083\">中国有赞</a>涨超19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">微盟集团</a>涨近14%，移卡涨超8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7071f65fb55df138376aa00d328110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】恒生科技指数涨逾7%，京东、美团齐齐大涨</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】恒生科技指数涨逾7%，京东、美团齐齐大涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-29 11:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月29日，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至逾7%，创盘中最大单日涨幅，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团涨逾10%，美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>涨超8%，创1月25日以来最大涨幅。</p>\n<p>同时，SaaS概念股显著反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08083\">中国有赞</a>涨超19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">微盟集团</a>涨近14%，移卡涨超8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7071f65fb55df138376aa00d328110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","JD":"京东","03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129095809","content_text":"7月29日，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至逾7%，创盘中最大单日涨幅，京东集团涨逾10%，美团、哔哩哔哩涨近10%，腾讯控股涨超8%，创1月25日以来最大涨幅。\n同时，SaaS概念股显著反弹，明源云、中国有赞涨超19%，金山软件、微盟集团涨近14%，移卡涨超8%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801450321,"gmtCreate":1627529693763,"gmtModify":1703491781055,"author":{"id":"4090038505779510","authorId":"4090038505779510","name":"Styleunme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6fee1953c75c9a88f6e39dcdb5474b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go 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