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2021-08-24

Rational analysis, irrational price.

Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real

2021-08-24

Rational analysis, irrational price.

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2021-08-24

Let’s see how it pans out

Why Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout

2021-08-14

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Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:FinViz</span></p>\n<p><b>Recency Bias</b></p>\n<p>One of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.</p>\n<p>The current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.</p>\n<p>The recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Even after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates</span></p>\n<p>The problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.</p>\n<p>Right now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>If Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.</p>\n<p>While the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>iPhone 5G Cycle</b></p>\n<p>History tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.</p>\n<p>TheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>No real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.</p>\n<p>Investors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.</p>\n<p>The crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.</p>\n<p>Apple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.</p>\n<p>If the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.</p>\n<p>Investors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834674283,"gmtCreate":1629803003942,"gmtModify":1676530135696,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","listText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834674283","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834675829,"gmtCreate":1629802842061,"gmtModify":1676530135680,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s see how it pans out","listText":"Let’s see how it pans out","text":"Let’s see how it pans out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834675829","repostId":"1192814858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192814858","pubTimestamp":1629793510,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192814858?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 16:25","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192814858","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Over the weekend, we presented one explanation behind the recent plunge in the price of oil which dr","content":"<p>Over the weekend, we&nbsp;presented&nbsp;one explanation behind the recent plunge in the price of oil which dragged it close to a bear market from its post-covid highs just one month earlier: as Rabobank's Ryan Fitzmaurice said, it was the short-term momentum and some trend signals that turned bearish this week. Furthermore, medium-term momentum signals are also at risk of flipping from \"long\" to \"short\" over the coming days should prices continue to weaken, which could bring another wave of aggressive systematic selling to the oil market before the pressure subsides. As such, the Rabo strategist said \"we are attributing a large portion of the recent fall in oil prices to the herd-like behavior of systematic funds rather than to any material shift in the fundamental outlook for oil markets.\"</p>\n<p>Overnight, Goldman's commodity head Jeffrey Currie expanded on this, including fundamental drivers and writing that for the past 9 months, commodities have been driven by strong macro trends, with significant cross-commodity correlations that pushed the entire complex higher through June. But more recent macro trends – reflation unwind, Delta variant concerns, and caution over China – have generated headwinds, driving all markets lower. Furthermore, \"key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply\" and while \"peak growth is clearly behind\" the Goldman strategist again emphasizes that \"<i>commodities are driven by demand levels, not growth rates \"</i></p>\n<p>Currie then also observes the technicals, noting that \"combined with low liquidity and fresh shorts from momentum investors the move has been swift and large.\"</p>\n<p>Quantifying the technical downside further, Reuters' John Kemp writes that&nbsp;<b>hedge funds sold petroleum for the seventh time in nine weeks:</b>&nbsp;Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 40 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 17, taking total sales to 253 million barrels since June 15. In the most recent week, funds were sellers across the board of Brent (-25 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-9 million), U.S. gasoline (-3 million), U.S. diesel (-1 million), and European gas oil (-3 million).</p>\n<p>So what happens next? According to Goldman, while liquidity will likely remain low and the trend is not our friend right now, \"the micro - steadily tightening commodity fundamentals - will trump these macro trends as we move towards autumn, pushing many markets like oil and base metals to new highs for this cycle.\"</p>\n<p>Below we excerpt from his note which describes why in Currie's view, the bullish micro will soon trump the bearish macro:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Shifting gears to a micro driven bull market</b>. Indeed, we see these macro trends drawing attention away from increasingly constructive micro data across the complex. On the back of this data we maintain our bullish view. Even those markets like steel and iron ore where micro fundamentals have weakened, there are very specific idiosyncratic reasons for the weakness. While the demand for oil has clearly weakened in Asia, it has weakened less than we expected. Further, both base metal and agriculture demand remains strong. Although US shale output has surprised to the upside recently, it is in line with our expectations while supply elsewhere for oil and all other markets remains structurally weak. As a result, key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply. While peak growth is clearly behind us we once again emphasize that commodities are driven by \n <u><b>demand levels not growth rates</b></u>&nbsp;and once we pass through this Delta variant – China cases are already declining – even oil demand levels should recover into year-end.&nbsp;\n <b>Accordingly, we maintain our 4Q price targets — $80/bbl oil and $10,620/t copper and now forecast 17.1% returns for the S&amp;P GSCI into year-end.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Delta a transient event to oil demand, supply losses are persistent</b>. Both oil prices and timespreads have sold off over the last three weeks as Delta concerns have darkened the outlook for demand; however, flat prices have overshot timespreads to the downside, suggesting an oversold market. So far the demand hit has remained within our conservative expectations in China (0.7 mb/d vs 1 mb/d base case), and overall demand continues to track near 98 mb/d as regional mobility indicators remain robust ex-APAC. The c.1.5mb/d deficit over the last month has been focused in EM, where storage levels ex-China are now precariously low, and we expect DM stocks will have to take the brunt of future drawdowns. Cash markets have weakened substantially, partly due to the post-Covid biannual storage play unwinds, nevertheless refining margins have remained supported and, in fact, a simple average of Brent and Dubai prompt timespreads remain near post-Covid highs. In addition, supply data points continue to disappoint versus our below-consensus expectations; the IEA has now revised down non-OPEC+ ex US/Canada supply by almost 1 mb/d each of the last two quarters, with growth increasingly back-loaded. The latest leg of the sell-off has been more parallel in nature, with the market reflecting anxiety over medium-term growth, China stimulus, and the possibility that US shale may be inflecting higher. Nevertheless, we expect Delta will prove to be a transient event, and that US producers will retain their newfound discipline, as the drivers of our bullish view shift from cyclical demand impulses to the structural binding constraints of under-investment in supply that were only accelerated by Covid-19.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>China steel weakness in Q3 is no canary in the coal mine</b>. There is no doubt that China’s steel data has deteriorated since mid-year. After a strong H1 with apparent onshore steel demand rising nearly 6% y/y, the data since then has pointed to a 4% y/y decline so far in Q3. Coupled with a softening trend in early cycle construction activity, investors are concerned over rising headwinds to onshore demand. We think such concerns are over-emphasized. First, there have been transitory yet material distortions to steel apparent demand from mid-year. Flooding in several provinces alongside Delta lockdowns has exacerbated the seasonal slowdown in construction activity, which should reverse into Autumn. In addition, policy led steel supply cuts and resultant higher steel prices have contributed to downstream destocking which has, just as with copper in Q2 generated a negative adjustment to apparent demand. Second, it is also clear that Beijing is shifting to a more pro-growth policy setting which should generate a boost to infrastructure investment over the next 2-3 quarters, whilst also limiting further tightening measures on the property sector. In this context, we expect an improvement in China’s steel demand trends in Q4 (vs Q3) though the trend will be closer to flat y/y into next year. In this context we also see iron ore as oversold after a near 30% fall. A combination of improving steel demand, policy developments and a stabilizing physical market should act as upside catalysts for iron ore.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Sustained deficits across base metals supports higher prices</b>. There is no evidence that the current weaker micro trends in China’s ferrous sector are feeding into base metals markets. Onshore inventories across all the base metals have drawn over Q3 and for the majority are falling at the fastest pace seen year-to-date. In particular, we would note that onshore copper stocks (social and bonded) are now c.30% lower than their mid-Q2 peak, whilst high frequency indicators such as physical premiums and the import arb all point to a material tightening trend onshore. We think this reflects so far solid demand conditions through the summer period with evidence of y/y apparent demand growth rates inflecting higher after the negative downstream destocking distortions in Q2 (due to high prices). At the same time, supply side constraints via both scrap (Delta lockdowns impacting SE Asian processing flows) and power supply on smelting/refining (cutting refined output across a number of base metals) have supported the call on inventories. As demand improves seasonally from September, aided by reduced lockdown effects and some probable supportive policy adjustments, we expect continued tightness onshore into Q4 and support for higher import volumes of refined metal. This fundamental setup will offer support for a trend higher in both copper and aluminium prices in particular.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Gold searching for a catalyst:</b>&nbsp;Despite the recent spike in growth concerns, gold has largely remained range bound, closely correlated with the dollar. In our view this is because growth worries were actually quite contained and inflows into equity market funds have remained strong indicating that investors still prefer riskier assets. Inflation concerns were also moderate leaving little catalyst for gold investment demand. Nevertheless,&nbsp; \n <b>at current prices gold is attractive to long term buyers looking to diversify their portfolio</b>. Central Bank demand for gold has picked up materially with large purchases from Brazil, Thailand, India and Hungary. Moreover, unlike 2017-18 when Central Bank gold demand was coming primarily from countries with political tensions with the US (Russia, Turkey, China),&nbsp; \n <b>the current spike in demand appears to be driven more by diversification motives</b>. At the same time, Shanghai gold premium remains positive reflecting strong demand onshore and Indian imports have rebounded from their May-June slump. Overall our view remains that&nbsp; \n <b>gold will continue to trade moderately higher on weaker dollar and recovery in EM demand</b>. For gold to move materially higher though there has to be general risk off event which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges such as return of inflation worries.\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-goldman-sees-oil-hitting-new-highs-after-recent-rout><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Over the weekend, we presented one explanation behind the recent plunge in the price of oil which dragged it close to a bear market from its post-covid highs just one month earlier: as Rabobank's Ryan...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-goldman-sees-oil-hitting-new-highs-after-recent-rout\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-goldman-sees-oil-hitting-new-highs-after-recent-rout","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192814858","content_text":"Over the weekend, we presented one explanation behind the recent plunge in the price of oil which dragged it close to a bear market from its post-covid highs just one month earlier: as Rabobank's Ryan Fitzmaurice said, it was the short-term momentum and some trend signals that turned bearish this week. Furthermore, medium-term momentum signals are also at risk of flipping from \"long\" to \"short\" over the coming days should prices continue to weaken, which could bring another wave of aggressive systematic selling to the oil market before the pressure subsides. As such, the Rabo strategist said \"we are attributing a large portion of the recent fall in oil prices to the herd-like behavior of systematic funds rather than to any material shift in the fundamental outlook for oil markets.\"\nOvernight, Goldman's commodity head Jeffrey Currie expanded on this, including fundamental drivers and writing that for the past 9 months, commodities have been driven by strong macro trends, with significant cross-commodity correlations that pushed the entire complex higher through June. But more recent macro trends – reflation unwind, Delta variant concerns, and caution over China – have generated headwinds, driving all markets lower. Furthermore, \"key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply\" and while \"peak growth is clearly behind\" the Goldman strategist again emphasizes that \"commodities are driven by demand levels, not growth rates \"\nCurrie then also observes the technicals, noting that \"combined with low liquidity and fresh shorts from momentum investors the move has been swift and large.\"\nQuantifying the technical downside further, Reuters' John Kemp writes that hedge funds sold petroleum for the seventh time in nine weeks: Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 40 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 17, taking total sales to 253 million barrels since June 15. In the most recent week, funds were sellers across the board of Brent (-25 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-9 million), U.S. gasoline (-3 million), U.S. diesel (-1 million), and European gas oil (-3 million).\nSo what happens next? According to Goldman, while liquidity will likely remain low and the trend is not our friend right now, \"the micro - steadily tightening commodity fundamentals - will trump these macro trends as we move towards autumn, pushing many markets like oil and base metals to new highs for this cycle.\"\nBelow we excerpt from his note which describes why in Currie's view, the bullish micro will soon trump the bearish macro:\n\nShifting gears to a micro driven bull market. Indeed, we see these macro trends drawing attention away from increasingly constructive micro data across the complex. On the back of this data we maintain our bullish view. Even those markets like steel and iron ore where micro fundamentals have weakened, there are very specific idiosyncratic reasons for the weakness. While the demand for oil has clearly weakened in Asia, it has weakened less than we expected. Further, both base metal and agriculture demand remains strong. Although US shale output has surprised to the upside recently, it is in line with our expectations while supply elsewhere for oil and all other markets remains structurally weak. As a result, key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply. While peak growth is clearly behind us we once again emphasize that commodities are driven by \n demand levels not growth rates and once we pass through this Delta variant – China cases are already declining – even oil demand levels should recover into year-end. \n Accordingly, we maintain our 4Q price targets — $80/bbl oil and $10,620/t copper and now forecast 17.1% returns for the S&P GSCI into year-end.\n\n\nDelta a transient event to oil demand, supply losses are persistent. Both oil prices and timespreads have sold off over the last three weeks as Delta concerns have darkened the outlook for demand; however, flat prices have overshot timespreads to the downside, suggesting an oversold market. So far the demand hit has remained within our conservative expectations in China (0.7 mb/d vs 1 mb/d base case), and overall demand continues to track near 98 mb/d as regional mobility indicators remain robust ex-APAC. The c.1.5mb/d deficit over the last month has been focused in EM, where storage levels ex-China are now precariously low, and we expect DM stocks will have to take the brunt of future drawdowns. Cash markets have weakened substantially, partly due to the post-Covid biannual storage play unwinds, nevertheless refining margins have remained supported and, in fact, a simple average of Brent and Dubai prompt timespreads remain near post-Covid highs. In addition, supply data points continue to disappoint versus our below-consensus expectations; the IEA has now revised down non-OPEC+ ex US/Canada supply by almost 1 mb/d each of the last two quarters, with growth increasingly back-loaded. The latest leg of the sell-off has been more parallel in nature, with the market reflecting anxiety over medium-term growth, China stimulus, and the possibility that US shale may be inflecting higher. Nevertheless, we expect Delta will prove to be a transient event, and that US producers will retain their newfound discipline, as the drivers of our bullish view shift from cyclical demand impulses to the structural binding constraints of under-investment in supply that were only accelerated by Covid-19.\n\n\nChina steel weakness in Q3 is no canary in the coal mine. There is no doubt that China’s steel data has deteriorated since mid-year. After a strong H1 with apparent onshore steel demand rising nearly 6% y/y, the data since then has pointed to a 4% y/y decline so far in Q3. Coupled with a softening trend in early cycle construction activity, investors are concerned over rising headwinds to onshore demand. We think such concerns are over-emphasized. First, there have been transitory yet material distortions to steel apparent demand from mid-year. Flooding in several provinces alongside Delta lockdowns has exacerbated the seasonal slowdown in construction activity, which should reverse into Autumn. In addition, policy led steel supply cuts and resultant higher steel prices have contributed to downstream destocking which has, just as with copper in Q2 generated a negative adjustment to apparent demand. Second, it is also clear that Beijing is shifting to a more pro-growth policy setting which should generate a boost to infrastructure investment over the next 2-3 quarters, whilst also limiting further tightening measures on the property sector. In this context, we expect an improvement in China’s steel demand trends in Q4 (vs Q3) though the trend will be closer to flat y/y into next year. In this context we also see iron ore as oversold after a near 30% fall. A combination of improving steel demand, policy developments and a stabilizing physical market should act as upside catalysts for iron ore.\n\n\nSustained deficits across base metals supports higher prices. There is no evidence that the current weaker micro trends in China’s ferrous sector are feeding into base metals markets. Onshore inventories across all the base metals have drawn over Q3 and for the majority are falling at the fastest pace seen year-to-date. In particular, we would note that onshore copper stocks (social and bonded) are now c.30% lower than their mid-Q2 peak, whilst high frequency indicators such as physical premiums and the import arb all point to a material tightening trend onshore. We think this reflects so far solid demand conditions through the summer period with evidence of y/y apparent demand growth rates inflecting higher after the negative downstream destocking distortions in Q2 (due to high prices). At the same time, supply side constraints via both scrap (Delta lockdowns impacting SE Asian processing flows) and power supply on smelting/refining (cutting refined output across a number of base metals) have supported the call on inventories. As demand improves seasonally from September, aided by reduced lockdown effects and some probable supportive policy adjustments, we expect continued tightness onshore into Q4 and support for higher import volumes of refined metal. This fundamental setup will offer support for a trend higher in both copper and aluminium prices in particular.\n\n\nGold searching for a catalyst: Despite the recent spike in growth concerns, gold has largely remained range bound, closely correlated with the dollar. In our view this is because growth worries were actually quite contained and inflows into equity market funds have remained strong indicating that investors still prefer riskier assets. Inflation concerns were also moderate leaving little catalyst for gold investment demand. Nevertheless,  \n at current prices gold is attractive to long term buyers looking to diversify their portfolio. Central Bank demand for gold has picked up materially with large purchases from Brazil, Thailand, India and Hungary. Moreover, unlike 2017-18 when Central Bank gold demand was coming primarily from countries with political tensions with the US (Russia, Turkey, China),  \n the current spike in demand appears to be driven more by diversification motives. At the same time, Shanghai gold premium remains positive reflecting strong demand onshore and Indian imports have rebounded from their May-June slump. Overall our view remains that  \n gold will continue to trade moderately higher on weaker dollar and recovery in EM demand. For gold to move materially higher though there has to be general risk off event which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges such as return of inflation worries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897291341,"gmtCreate":1628919502083,"gmtModify":1676529894076,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897291341","repostId":"2159910213","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":834674722,"gmtCreate":1629803023066,"gmtModify":1676530135712,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","listText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834674722","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834675829,"gmtCreate":1629802842061,"gmtModify":1676530135680,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s see how it pans out","listText":"Let’s see how it pans out","text":"Let’s see how it pans out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834675829","repostId":"1192814858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897291341,"gmtCreate":1628919502083,"gmtModify":1676529894076,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897291341","repostId":"2159910213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159910213","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1628899990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159910213?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook, Amazon seek U.S. approval to operate undersea data cable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159910213","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Facebook Inc and Amazon.com Inc have asked the U.S. government for ap","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc and Amazon.com Inc have asked the U.S. government for approval to operate a new undersea data cable between the Philippines and California after China Mobile agreed to exit the plan, a government agency said Friday.</p>\n<p>The companies told the Federal Communications Commission they intend to start commercial operation by late 2022 and said the new data connection will \"provide significant new capacity on routes where capacity demand continues to increase substantially each year.\" The company said the new cable will help support Facebook applications and provide Amazon and its affiliates with \"capacity to support Amazon’s cloud services offerings and connect its data centers.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook, Amazon seek U.S. approval to operate undersea data cable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-14 08:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc and Amazon.com Inc have asked the U.S. government for approval to operate a new undersea data cable between the Philippines and California after China Mobile agreed to exit the plan, a government agency said Friday.</p>\n<p>The companies told the Federal Communications Commission they intend to start commercial operation by late 2022 and said the new data connection will \"provide significant new capacity on routes where capacity demand continues to increase substantially each year.\" The company said the new cable will help support Facebook applications and provide Amazon and its affiliates with \"capacity to support Amazon’s cloud services offerings and connect its data centers.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00941":"中国移动","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159910213","content_text":"WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Facebook Inc and Amazon.com Inc have asked the U.S. government for approval to operate a new undersea data cable between the Philippines and California after China Mobile agreed to exit the plan, a government agency said Friday.\nThe companies told the Federal Communications Commission they intend to start commercial operation by late 2022 and said the new data connection will \"provide significant new capacity on routes where capacity demand continues to increase substantially each year.\" The company said the new cable will help support Facebook applications and provide Amazon and its affiliates with \"capacity to support Amazon’s cloud services offerings and connect its data centers.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834674283,"gmtCreate":1629803003942,"gmtModify":1676530135696,"author":{"id":"4090049677785040","authorId":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorIdStr":"4090049677785040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","listText":"Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834674283","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}