@Ultrahisham:Euphoric exuberance all around The markets have been in a very buoyant mood lately. And calm despite the macroeconomics. That just makes me more cautious. Despite overbought levels and market worries as well as bearish sentiments, the market keeps driving up. Now, sentiments have turned bullish and many are saying the markets have entered a new bull market. Really? I beg to differ. In fact, the markets have all the hallmarks of a top. 1. Narrow breadth. Only 6 or 7 megacaps lead the market. This must be one of the thinnest 'bull market' ever! 2. The equal weight broad market market index is trending down. The divergence from the normal broad market index cannot be understated. 3. The market have never bottomed so way ahead of the Fed's final rate hike. And they may not be even done yet!
When an investor focuses on short-term investments, he or she is observing the variability of the portfolio, not the returns, in short, being fooled by randomness