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2023-11-22

Did you actually buy the share ??????

Sea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling

2023-11-15

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ Bearish

2023-11-13

Share your opinion about this news…

Palantir: I'm Going All In

2023-10-22

Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.

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2023-09-18

Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???

The Fed May Shatter The Rate-Cut Fantasy This Week

2023-09-16

Waiting for Christmas

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2023-09-13

can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.

The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy to Capitalize on the AI Revolution

2023-09-04

Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.

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2023-08-17

Dear writer, did you yourself buy???

Alibaba Q2: If You Are Not Buying Now, When Will You?

2023-08-15

Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???

Sea Limited: A Mouthwatering Prospect Ahead Of Q2 Earnings

2023-07-21

If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought

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2023-07-14

Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.

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2023-07-12

Rubbish report, go to the dustbin

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2023-06-24

Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher

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2023-06-13

Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???

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2023-06-05

If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy

PayPal: Don't Fear Apple Pay And Stripe

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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you actually buy the share ??????","listText":"Did you actually buy the share ??????","text":"Did you actually buy the share ??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244251025100800","repostId":"2385524523","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2385524523","pubTimestamp":1700634600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2385524523?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-22 14:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2385524523","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is offs","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sea&#39;s stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company&#39;s future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s softer gaming revenue is offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division and cost discipline measures.</p></li><li><p>Live streaming has helped the company to drive e-commerce bookings growth and secure market share gains.</p></li><li><p>The company is also noting outsized performance in Brazil, demonstrating that Sea has a future beyond Asia.</p></li></ul><p>A fresh bull market is well underway, with investors shrugging off the threat of inflation and cheering the end of rate hikes. Growth stocks are hot again, with very few exceptions - and among them is Sea (NYSE:SE), the self-dubbed &#34;Amazon of Southeast Asia.&#34;</p><p>This one-time market darling has seen its share price crater by nearly 30% this year, owing to one thing: a slowdown in its gaming division, which has been its cash cow for years as the company was ramping its e-commerce and digital financial services segments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738385a6575d7dcc23ce1073a428b57e\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I last covered Sea in July, when the stock was trading closer to $55 per share. Since then, the stock has fallen by a fresh ~30%, driven by a poorly received third-quarter earnings print. And while I&#39;m certainly not cheering the company&#39;s third-quarter results and the hole in my portfolio has been painful to bear, I&#39;m <strong>renewing my bullish call on Sea</strong> and using the dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p>The headline reason here: I&#39;ve always viewed gaming as more of a stopgap for Sea. It was important in the company&#39;s early days, yes - especially with how much cash <em>Free Fire</em>, the company&#39;s biggest hit, brought in during the pandemic when everybody was home and playing games. But Sea investors have all looked to the future for Sea&#39;s opportunity in e-commerce and digital payments when the company would become not just the Amazon of Southeast Asia, but its <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) / Square (SQ) as well. And to me, that future is very much alive.</p><p>The other core reason I remain bullish on this name, despite the disappointing gaming results: the company&#39;s softer gaming revenue and profits are offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division, long a loss leader for the company, as well as corporate-level layoffs that have actually helped Sea <em>increase</em> its EBITDA performance during a difficult time.</p><p>Beyond the near-term drivers, here is a reminder of what I view to be the long-term bull case for Sea:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Sea operates in the attractive &#34;tiger economies&#34; with secular multi-year growth tailwinds.</strong> Serving the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etc.). Outside of its home country of Singapore, Sea benefits from rapidly modernizing infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. It&#39;s not ludicrous to compare an investment in Sea to an early bet on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) in China.</p></li><li><p><strong>Sea operates a conglomeration of attractive, profitable businesses.</strong> The company&#39;s gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments businesses serve a wide net of customers and are now each profitable in their own right - giving the company plenty of growth catalysts to capture more share in Southeast Asia. These subsidiaries, particularly the more nascent payments business, enjoy synergies and cross-sell opportunities with each other.</p></li><li><p><strong>Cost discipline.</strong> Unlike many other hyper-growth companies when backed into a corner, Sea has shown expense discipline this year in laying off ~10% of its headcount amid its gaming division slowdown.</p></li><li><p><strong>Incredibly well capitalized.</strong> Sea has more than $8 billion of cash and investments on its balance sheet (for sizing, that is approximately a year&#39;s worth of opex for the company) to continue investing in growth and potentially acquire new platforms.</p></li></ul><p>The bottom line here: there&#39;s a lot to like about Sea in the long term, and with the stock under so much pressure this year, it&#39;s a good time to enter into this growth titan at an attractive price.</p><h2 id=\"id_1878808025\">Q3 download</h2><p>Like most do, we can start with the bad news in the gaming division first.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/321a2d95dde66d62aecc3b0c1b2292c9\" alt=\"Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\"/><span>Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>Quarterly active users saw a slight sequential dip to 544.1 million users, while the quarterly paid-user ratio fell sequentially as well to 7.5%. Total bookings in the division were slightly up versus Q2, but down -33% y/y to $447.9 million. Revenue for digital entertainment, similarly, was down -34% y/y to $592.2 million. As a reminder, for Sea, bookings in the gaming division represents when players purchased in-game items or subscriptions, whereas revenue represent the usage of those purchases.</p><p>Anecdotal commentary from the company&#39;s core gaming franchises pointed to stable user engagement (at least sequentially), with some pickup from non-<em>Free Fire</em> titles. Per Chief Corporate Officer Yanjung Wang&#39;s remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>We are happy to see that Free Fire maintains stable trends across both user and monetization metrics. Many of our initiatives around improving the user experience this year, such as reducing loading times, have shown continued success. We have also further deepened user engagement.</p><p>For example, we recently revamped Free Fire&#39;s guild system to enhance the social experience for our players. With all these efforts, we saw a higher revival of churned users and better user retention. Indeed, Free Fire was the most downloaded mobile game in the third quarter globally, according to Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>. We are also pleased to see healthy trends for our portfolio of published games. We added fresh, exciting content and enhanced the user experience for these games. New content on Arena of Valor received very positive user feedback, resulting in a new peak of quarterly active users for the game. Another of our published games, Call of Duty Mobile, achieved its highest quarterly bookings.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>It&#39;s worth reminding ourselves that <em>Free Fire</em> was completely developed in-house. Sea has the technical know-how to develop hit games - and given time, it may produce another to reduce its reliance on its original golden goose.</p><p>Results in the e-commerce division, meanwhile, were much more sanguine. Revenue grew 18% y/y, driven by a 5% y/y growth in GMV.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72075233840e15eeb1762e1972c2758a\" alt=\"Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\"/><span>Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>The company believes that it gained market share in the quarter, and that share growth was driven in large part by the broad rollout of Shoppee Live - where product sellers do video demonstrations of their wares. Sea management noted that viewership hours on Shoppee Live in the month of October were triple that of June and that one in every five Shoppee users in Indonesia had used the feature.</p><p>Economies of scale have tremendously helped the e-commerce business scale, and the company notes that logistics costs per order are down -17% y/y. This has helped the company reduce its adjusted EBITDA losses to -$346.5 million, which is roughly one-third less than in the year-ago Q3. This was, in turn, driven by outperformance in Brazil - which gives us additional hope that Sea can be successful outside of Asia and in other hyper-growth economies as well.</p><p>You can see as well in the chart below that Sea has made substantial cuts to general and administrative as well as R&amp;D expenses, the result of layoffs that began in the tail end of 2022 that have shaved off ~10% of its headcount:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ca4c724937d910aef8674cf417609fe\" alt=\"Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/><span>Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>The combination of lower e-commerce losses and lower corporate overhead helped the company produce a <strong>positive adjusted EBITDA of $35.3 million,</strong> versus a -$357.7 million loss in the year-ago period:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d5ec4fe076879928462ffc65c70f77\" alt=\"Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/><span>Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2146270465\">Key takeaways</h2><p>In my view, I like the fact that Sea is finding ways to boost adjusted profitability even when its most profitable segment is faltering. While it&#39;s true that Sea has a lot to prove (reducing its reliance on <em>Free</em> Fire, improving e-commerce profitability in Asia, demonstrating growth in non-Asia markets), a lot of pessimism is baked into Sea&#39;s share price at sub-$40 and it&#39;s a great time to enter into this stock at a de-risked valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-22 14:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2385524523","content_text":"Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division and cost discipline measures.Live streaming has helped the company to drive e-commerce bookings growth and secure market share gains.The company is also noting outsized performance in Brazil, demonstrating that Sea has a future beyond Asia.A fresh bull market is well underway, with investors shrugging off the threat of inflation and cheering the end of rate hikes. Growth stocks are hot again, with very few exceptions - and among them is Sea (NYSE:SE), the self-dubbed \"Amazon of Southeast Asia.\"This one-time market darling has seen its share price crater by nearly 30% this year, owing to one thing: a slowdown in its gaming division, which has been its cash cow for years as the company was ramping its e-commerce and digital financial services segments.Data by YChartsI last covered Sea in July, when the stock was trading closer to $55 per share. Since then, the stock has fallen by a fresh ~30%, driven by a poorly received third-quarter earnings print. And while I'm certainly not cheering the company's third-quarter results and the hole in my portfolio has been painful to bear, I'm renewing my bullish call on Sea and using the dip as a buying opportunity.The headline reason here: I've always viewed gaming as more of a stopgap for Sea. It was important in the company's early days, yes - especially with how much cash Free Fire, the company's biggest hit, brought in during the pandemic when everybody was home and playing games. But Sea investors have all looked to the future for Sea's opportunity in e-commerce and digital payments when the company would become not just the Amazon of Southeast Asia, but its PayPal (PYPL) / Square (SQ) as well. And to me, that future is very much alive.The other core reason I remain bullish on this name, despite the disappointing gaming results: the company's softer gaming revenue and profits are offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division, long a loss leader for the company, as well as corporate-level layoffs that have actually helped Sea increase its EBITDA performance during a difficult time.Beyond the near-term drivers, here is a reminder of what I view to be the long-term bull case for Sea:Sea operates in the attractive \"tiger economies\" with secular multi-year growth tailwinds. Serving the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etc.). Outside of its home country of Singapore, Sea benefits from rapidly modernizing infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. It's not ludicrous to compare an investment in Sea to an early bet on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) in China.Sea operates a conglomeration of attractive, profitable businesses. The company's gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments businesses serve a wide net of customers and are now each profitable in their own right - giving the company plenty of growth catalysts to capture more share in Southeast Asia. These subsidiaries, particularly the more nascent payments business, enjoy synergies and cross-sell opportunities with each other.Cost discipline. Unlike many other hyper-growth companies when backed into a corner, Sea has shown expense discipline this year in laying off ~10% of its headcount amid its gaming division slowdown.Incredibly well capitalized. Sea has more than $8 billion of cash and investments on its balance sheet (for sizing, that is approximately a year's worth of opex for the company) to continue investing in growth and potentially acquire new platforms.The bottom line here: there's a lot to like about Sea in the long term, and with the stock under so much pressure this year, it's a good time to enter into this growth titan at an attractive price.Q3 downloadLike most do, we can start with the bad news in the gaming division first.Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)Quarterly active users saw a slight sequential dip to 544.1 million users, while the quarterly paid-user ratio fell sequentially as well to 7.5%. Total bookings in the division were slightly up versus Q2, but down -33% y/y to $447.9 million. Revenue for digital entertainment, similarly, was down -34% y/y to $592.2 million. As a reminder, for Sea, bookings in the gaming division represents when players purchased in-game items or subscriptions, whereas revenue represent the usage of those purchases.Anecdotal commentary from the company's core gaming franchises pointed to stable user engagement (at least sequentially), with some pickup from non-Free Fire titles. Per Chief Corporate Officer Yanjung Wang's remarks on the Q3 earnings call:We are happy to see that Free Fire maintains stable trends across both user and monetization metrics. Many of our initiatives around improving the user experience this year, such as reducing loading times, have shown continued success. We have also further deepened user engagement.For example, we recently revamped Free Fire's guild system to enhance the social experience for our players. With all these efforts, we saw a higher revival of churned users and better user retention. Indeed, Free Fire was the most downloaded mobile game in the third quarter globally, according to Sensor Tower. We are also pleased to see healthy trends for our portfolio of published games. We added fresh, exciting content and enhanced the user experience for these games. New content on Arena of Valor received very positive user feedback, resulting in a new peak of quarterly active users for the game. Another of our published games, Call of Duty Mobile, achieved its highest quarterly bookings.\"It's worth reminding ourselves that Free Fire was completely developed in-house. Sea has the technical know-how to develop hit games - and given time, it may produce another to reduce its reliance on its original golden goose.Results in the e-commerce division, meanwhile, were much more sanguine. Revenue grew 18% y/y, driven by a 5% y/y growth in GMV.Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)The company believes that it gained market share in the quarter, and that share growth was driven in large part by the broad rollout of Shoppee Live - where product sellers do video demonstrations of their wares. Sea management noted that viewership hours on Shoppee Live in the month of October were triple that of June and that one in every five Shoppee users in Indonesia had used the feature.Economies of scale have tremendously helped the e-commerce business scale, and the company notes that logistics costs per order are down -17% y/y. This has helped the company reduce its adjusted EBITDA losses to -$346.5 million, which is roughly one-third less than in the year-ago Q3. This was, in turn, driven by outperformance in Brazil - which gives us additional hope that Sea can be successful outside of Asia and in other hyper-growth economies as well.You can see as well in the chart below that Sea has made substantial cuts to general and administrative as well as R&D expenses, the result of layoffs that began in the tail end of 2022 that have shaved off ~10% of its headcount:Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)The combination of lower e-commerce losses and lower corporate overhead helped the company produce a positive adjusted EBITDA of $35.3 million, versus a -$357.7 million loss in the year-ago period:Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)Key takeawaysIn my view, I like the fact that Sea is finding ways to boost adjusted profitability even when its most profitable segment is faltering. While it's true that Sea has a lot to prove (reducing its reliance on Free Fire, improving e-commerce profitability in Asia, demonstrating growth in non-Asia markets), a lot of pessimism is baked into Sea's share price at sub-$40 and it's a great time to enter into this stock at a de-risked valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":241711053193304,"gmtCreate":1700036295645,"gmtModify":1700036298944,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a> Bearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a> Bearish","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ Bearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241711053193304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":240922065416288,"gmtCreate":1699837826426,"gmtModify":1699837830958,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/240922065416288","repostId":"2383250087","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2383250087","pubTimestamp":1699836484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2383250087?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-13 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: I'm Going All In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2383250087","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir's shares have rallied due to better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive guidance for Q4.The launch of Palantir's generative AI platform has generated significant interest and attracted ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir&#39;s shares have rallied due to better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive guidance for Q4.</p></li><li><p>The launch of Palantir&#39;s generative AI platform has generated significant interest and attracted major clients.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s growth opportunities in the government and commercial sectors are expected to outweigh valuation concerns.</p></li></ul><p>Palantir’s shares have rallied in recent weeks as the better-than-expected performance in Q3 and better guidance for Q4 made the market excited about the company’s growth prospects. The company’s shares are now up ~30% since the publication of my latest article on Palantir in late September, and I still believe that the business’s growth story is far from over. Even though Palantir now trades at multiples that are significantly greater in comparison to the average market multiples, there are reasons to believe that the growth opportunities will continue to outweigh the valuation concerns in the following quarters and help the shares keep their momentum. That’s why I’m still holding my long position in the company and have no plans to unwind it anytime soon.</p><h2 id=\"id_3571234717\">All Eyes On AI</h2><p>Earlier this month Palantir revealed its Q3 earnings report which showed that the company’s revenues during the period increased by 16.8% Y/Y to $558 million, above the estimates by $2.08 million, while its non-GAAP EPS stood at $0.07, also above the estimates by $0.01. The company has also generated $133 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in cash reserves, which is a major increase from $2.5 billion a year ago.</p><p>Such a great performance helped the stock appreciate to the 52-week high levels and there are reasons to believe that the shares could retain their momentum in the future as everything points out to the fact that Palantir’s growth story is far from over.</p><p>With the launch of its generative AI platform AIP earlier this year, Palantir was able to generate an impressive interest in the platform and attracted almost 300 major clients who are now using it. As we enter the new age of AI, it appears that Palantir has a major advantage over its peers in the government and commercial sectors.</p><p>The AI is already changing the nature of warfare and Palantir is currently learning about how AIP could be efficiently used on the battlefield by deploying it in Ukraine. Back in June, I wrote an article about Palantir’s operations in my home country of Ukraine and noted how the company uses the current war to test its software directly on the battlefield. After that, a few weeks ago Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation revealed that Palantir’s AIP platform is being used as one of the primary generative AI tools to help the government learn about how many mined areas there currently are and how long will it take to demine them. The minister notes that such a task would’ve taken data analysts days and shows on the video that AIP could do it in a few moments. He also states that the system is constantly being improved with the help of new data and more real use cases will be revealed later.</p><p>This example shows that AI is indeed changing warfare and Palantir appears to be at the forefront of learning about all the changes to ensure that AIP and its other platforms have an edge against other competitors. That’s why even though the company’s government revenues increased by 12% Y/Y in Q3 to $308 million, there are reasons to believe that the growth will accelerate once the adoption of generative AI tools among government agencies increases over time.</p><p>At the same time, a similar thing could also be said about the commercial sector, which is interested in using generative AI tools to better optimize its own operations. The use of generative AI tools has surged in recent months and such a growth has been reflected in Palantir’s financials. In Q3, its commercial revenues increased by 23% Y/Y to $251 million, while its US commercial customer count increased by 37% Y/Y. The company is now on track to conduct AIP Bootcamps for over 140 organizations by the end of this month, as the interest in different AI tools is unlikely to decrease anytime soon.</p><h2 id=\"id_2766984226\">The Valuation Dilemma</h2><p>Given all of those growth opportunities, there’s no denying that Palantir’s business is likely to continue to generate aggressive double-digit returns in the following years especially since it appears that it has a moat against others in the generative AI space. The only question at this stage is whether its shares will be able to continue to appreciate further in the next few quarters.</p><p>My optimistic DCF model that was published in September showed that Palantir’s fair value is $16.05 per share, which is already below the current market price. However, it’s important to understand that Palantir never truly traded at its fair value, but it didn’t stop its shares from appreciating further as the market backed its growth story and helped to propel the shares higher. As we enter the new of AI, Palantir is looking to become one of the most important companies in the field, which could more than justify its premium valuation at the moment.</p><p>If we look at Seeking Alpha’s Quant system, we’ll see that Palantir has a grade of ‘D-‘ for valuation, but on all the other metrics it has a score of ‘B+’ and higher. This indicates that the company’s current valuation is indeed the only main concern when deciding whether to invest in the company. Despite this concern, I believe that the company would be able to keep the momentum going in the following quarters, which could help Palantir’s shares to grow as was the case in the past.</p><p>Let’s not forget that the latest increase of revenue guidance for FY23 to between $2.216 - $2.220 billion, above the previous consensus of $2.21 billion, indicates that the company is likely once again generate strong returns in Q4 which could result in another round of stock appreciation as was the case in recent weeks. At the same time, a spike in upward revisions by the street along with a price target of $25 per share by some major firms shows that Palantir is likely to retain its momentum for the next few months at the very least.</p><p>That’s why as the AI adoption enters a new stage, I decided to stick with my investment in the company and not unwind Palantir from my portfolio. The upcoming S&amp;P 500 inclusion, the signing of new contracts, and the realization of all the growth opportunities at a limited cost are likely to continue to outweigh the valuation concerns in the following quarters.</p><h2 id=\"id_3799474467\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>There are reasons to believe that the growth opportunities will continue to outweigh the valuation and other concerns, which should help Palantir’s shares retain their momentum. That’s the main reason why I decided to continue to hold my long position without any plans to unwind it anytime soon as the growth story appears to be far from over.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: I'm Going All In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: I'm Going All In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-13 08:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650904-palantir-im-going-all-in><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir's shares have rallied due to better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive guidance for Q4.The launch of Palantir's generative AI platform has generated significant interest and attracted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650904-palantir-im-going-all-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650904-palantir-im-going-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2383250087","content_text":"Palantir's shares have rallied due to better-than-expected Q3 performance and positive guidance for Q4.The launch of Palantir's generative AI platform has generated significant interest and attracted major clients.The company's growth opportunities in the government and commercial sectors are expected to outweigh valuation concerns.Palantir’s shares have rallied in recent weeks as the better-than-expected performance in Q3 and better guidance for Q4 made the market excited about the company’s growth prospects. The company’s shares are now up ~30% since the publication of my latest article on Palantir in late September, and I still believe that the business’s growth story is far from over. Even though Palantir now trades at multiples that are significantly greater in comparison to the average market multiples, there are reasons to believe that the growth opportunities will continue to outweigh the valuation concerns in the following quarters and help the shares keep their momentum. That’s why I’m still holding my long position in the company and have no plans to unwind it anytime soon.All Eyes On AIEarlier this month Palantir revealed its Q3 earnings report which showed that the company’s revenues during the period increased by 16.8% Y/Y to $558 million, above the estimates by $2.08 million, while its non-GAAP EPS stood at $0.07, also above the estimates by $0.01. The company has also generated $133 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in cash reserves, which is a major increase from $2.5 billion a year ago.Such a great performance helped the stock appreciate to the 52-week high levels and there are reasons to believe that the shares could retain their momentum in the future as everything points out to the fact that Palantir’s growth story is far from over.With the launch of its generative AI platform AIP earlier this year, Palantir was able to generate an impressive interest in the platform and attracted almost 300 major clients who are now using it. As we enter the new age of AI, it appears that Palantir has a major advantage over its peers in the government and commercial sectors.The AI is already changing the nature of warfare and Palantir is currently learning about how AIP could be efficiently used on the battlefield by deploying it in Ukraine. Back in June, I wrote an article about Palantir’s operations in my home country of Ukraine and noted how the company uses the current war to test its software directly on the battlefield. After that, a few weeks ago Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation revealed that Palantir’s AIP platform is being used as one of the primary generative AI tools to help the government learn about how many mined areas there currently are and how long will it take to demine them. The minister notes that such a task would’ve taken data analysts days and shows on the video that AIP could do it in a few moments. He also states that the system is constantly being improved with the help of new data and more real use cases will be revealed later.This example shows that AI is indeed changing warfare and Palantir appears to be at the forefront of learning about all the changes to ensure that AIP and its other platforms have an edge against other competitors. That’s why even though the company’s government revenues increased by 12% Y/Y in Q3 to $308 million, there are reasons to believe that the growth will accelerate once the adoption of generative AI tools among government agencies increases over time.At the same time, a similar thing could also be said about the commercial sector, which is interested in using generative AI tools to better optimize its own operations. The use of generative AI tools has surged in recent months and such a growth has been reflected in Palantir’s financials. In Q3, its commercial revenues increased by 23% Y/Y to $251 million, while its US commercial customer count increased by 37% Y/Y. The company is now on track to conduct AIP Bootcamps for over 140 organizations by the end of this month, as the interest in different AI tools is unlikely to decrease anytime soon.The Valuation DilemmaGiven all of those growth opportunities, there’s no denying that Palantir’s business is likely to continue to generate aggressive double-digit returns in the following years especially since it appears that it has a moat against others in the generative AI space. The only question at this stage is whether its shares will be able to continue to appreciate further in the next few quarters.My optimistic DCF model that was published in September showed that Palantir’s fair value is $16.05 per share, which is already below the current market price. However, it’s important to understand that Palantir never truly traded at its fair value, but it didn’t stop its shares from appreciating further as the market backed its growth story and helped to propel the shares higher. As we enter the new of AI, Palantir is looking to become one of the most important companies in the field, which could more than justify its premium valuation at the moment.If we look at Seeking Alpha’s Quant system, we’ll see that Palantir has a grade of ‘D-‘ for valuation, but on all the other metrics it has a score of ‘B+’ and higher. This indicates that the company’s current valuation is indeed the only main concern when deciding whether to invest in the company. Despite this concern, I believe that the company would be able to keep the momentum going in the following quarters, which could help Palantir’s shares to grow as was the case in the past.Let’s not forget that the latest increase of revenue guidance for FY23 to between $2.216 - $2.220 billion, above the previous consensus of $2.21 billion, indicates that the company is likely once again generate strong returns in Q4 which could result in another round of stock appreciation as was the case in recent weeks. At the same time, a spike in upward revisions by the street along with a price target of $25 per share by some major firms shows that Palantir is likely to retain its momentum for the next few months at the very least.That’s why as the AI adoption enters a new stage, I decided to stick with my investment in the company and not unwind Palantir from my portfolio. The upcoming S&P 500 inclusion, the signing of new contracts, and the realization of all the growth opportunities at a limited cost are likely to continue to outweigh the valuation concerns in the following quarters.The Bottom LineThere are reasons to believe that the growth opportunities will continue to outweigh the valuation and other concerns, which should help Palantir’s shares retain their momentum. That’s the main reason why I decided to continue to hold my long position without any plans to unwind it anytime soon as the growth story appears to be far from over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":233211447783480,"gmtCreate":1697964954021,"gmtModify":1697964958691,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","listText":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","text":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/233211447783480","repostId":"2377785784","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221163205767216,"gmtCreate":1695016318046,"gmtModify":1695016322341,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","listText":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","text":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/221163205767216","repostId":"2368989014","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2368989014","pubTimestamp":1694995388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2368989014?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-18 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed May Shatter The Rate-Cut Fantasy This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2368989014","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed may signal that another rate hike may be needed due to strong economic growth and elevated inflation metrics.The bond market sees higher rates, suggesting that the Fed's long-run rate projecti","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The Fed may signal that another rate hike may be needed due to strong economic growth and elevated inflation metrics.</p></li><li><p>The bond market sees higher rates, suggesting that the Fed&#39;s long-run rate projection may be too low.</p></li><li><p>The equity market expects rate cuts, while the bond market predicts rates to remain restrictive, creating a difference of opinion.</p></li></ul><p>The Fed may pass on raising rates this week, but that doesn&#39;t mean they are done. Given the stronger-than-expected economic growth witnessed over the last few months, it seems more likely than not that the Fed will signal through its Summary of Economic Projections that another hike may be needed while removing rate cuts for 2024.</p><p>This is critical for the Fed, especially when asset price inflation has skyrocketed, and core inflation metrics stay elevated. On top of that, commodities like oil and gasoline are again on the rise, and that effect can ripple through the economy.</p><p>This has already resulted in rates on the back of the yield curve and market-based inflation expectations. Additionally, it puts the Fed in a tough spot because if the market views the Fed as not being aggressive enough against sticky inflation, yields on the back of the curve could rise even further while inflation expectations rise.</p><p>This is why the Fed will need to communicate to the market that they remain data-dependent, that a rate hike in November is on the table, and that the unexpected outperformance of the US economy means rates in 2024 may not come down as much as expected.</p><h2 id=\"id_3647698988\">Communication Through Projections</h2><p>The June SEP revealed a peak Fed Funds terminal rate of 5.6% in 2023, which is then expected to come down to 4.6% in 2024, 3.4% in 2025, a long-run rate of 2.5%. Given the current data set, it seems most likely that the 2023 projection of 5.6% will remain while the 2024 and 2025 rates move higher and rate cuts are removed from the equation.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423ac407a636ec962e9c33b540a7d68\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve</p><p>While the long-run rate stayed at 2.5% after the June meeting, its central tendency shifted from 2.4%-2.6% to 2.5%-2.8%. This suggests the Fed may see the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity, as potentially higher than before. A 2% inflation target implies a real interest rate of 0.5%. A higher long-run rate could mean the Fed estimates a higher neutral real rate for the economy.</p><h2 id=\"id_3011596543\">Bond Market See Higher Rates</h2><p>The market may already be one step ahead of the Fed because currently, the market sees real rates at roughly 2% across the entire yield curve out to 30 years. Compare that to where the market saw rates back in September 2018, when the market saw a neutral rate closer to around 0.75%. In September 2018, the Fed&#39;s long-run rate was 3%, with a 2% inflation rate projecting a 1% real yield.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a0231e890007225db89f6748a4c9ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The bond market seems to be saying today that the Fed&#39;s idea of the long-run is too low, and that would suggest that one should pay particular attention to any changes in the long-run interest rate. Because it seems on the surface, just by looking at the direction of the earnings yield of the S&amp;P 500, the equity market thinks a slew of rate cuts are coming. This is noted by the earnings yield moving lower while real yields are moving higher. This would suggest that the equity market still doesn&#39;t believe the Fed when it says that rates will have to stay restrictive for some time.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07b963fac94fcddbfecc57cc9f8808a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What is interesting at this point is that the bond market is in almost complete agreement with the Fed regarding the path of rates, with a peak policy rate of 5.45%, while seeing rates falling to around 4.6% by the end of 2024, which is what the SEP was forecasting back in June.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859e349b060ba17be4b2fd06d6c9e96d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"598\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>But the question becomes more about that long-run rate because a 2% inflation rate and a 2% real yield would suggest that the nominal rates stay above 4.0% over a very long period. The Fed Funds futures see rates falling to around 4.1% by 2026 and never going below. This would suggest that the Fed cutting rates to 4.6% in 2024 is probably not likely, and that will result in that 2024 estimate rising, and it probably indicates that 2025 estimates of 3.4% is way too low and will need to rise above 4% as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_4289335081\">Difference of Opinion</h2><p>However, the equity market seems to be pricing a much lower long-run rate than the bond market. The current earnings yield of the S&amp;P 500 over the next 12 months is 5.3%, while the 10-year real yield is 1.98%, a spread of 3.3%. Historically, that spread averages around 5.4% over the past ten years, a difference of about 2.1%. This means the S&amp;P 500 should be trading with an earnings yield of about 7.4% and with a 5.4% premium over the 10-year real yield, we would get a 2% real yield plus a 2% inflation target rate, giving us a long-run rate of about 4%, almost the same as bonds. However, at an earning yield of 5.3% and an average premium of 5.4%, we get a real yield of -0.1%, plus a 2% inflation target rate would give us a long-run rate of 1.9%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b99f3bce726cf2f3f8087b8acd642f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>These spreads can change and valuation shift. However, if we just put the numbers aside. The message is that the bond market thinks rates will have to be restrictive for a long time, while the equity market thinks that rates won&#39;t be restrictive for a long time and that the Fed will be aggressively cutting rates.</p><p>Of course, many things can change over the next two years, and trying to predict the next six months is hard enough, let alone the next 2 or 3 years. But that is not the point; the equity market is betting on many rate cuts, which is not what the bond market says. That message of higher for longer is likely to be shown in this week&#39;s FOMC SEP, which should show rate cuts being removed while the equity market still thinks big rate cuts are coming.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Shatter The Rate-Cut Fantasy This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Shatter The Rate-Cut Fantasy This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-18 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635609-fed-may-shatter-rate-cut-fantasy><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed may signal that another rate hike may be needed due to strong economic growth and elevated inflation metrics.The bond market sees higher rates, suggesting that the Fed's long-run rate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635609-fed-may-shatter-rate-cut-fantasy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635609-fed-may-shatter-rate-cut-fantasy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2368989014","content_text":"The Fed may signal that another rate hike may be needed due to strong economic growth and elevated inflation metrics.The bond market sees higher rates, suggesting that the Fed's long-run rate projection may be too low.The equity market expects rate cuts, while the bond market predicts rates to remain restrictive, creating a difference of opinion.The Fed may pass on raising rates this week, but that doesn't mean they are done. Given the stronger-than-expected economic growth witnessed over the last few months, it seems more likely than not that the Fed will signal through its Summary of Economic Projections that another hike may be needed while removing rate cuts for 2024.This is critical for the Fed, especially when asset price inflation has skyrocketed, and core inflation metrics stay elevated. On top of that, commodities like oil and gasoline are again on the rise, and that effect can ripple through the economy.This has already resulted in rates on the back of the yield curve and market-based inflation expectations. Additionally, it puts the Fed in a tough spot because if the market views the Fed as not being aggressive enough against sticky inflation, yields on the back of the curve could rise even further while inflation expectations rise.This is why the Fed will need to communicate to the market that they remain data-dependent, that a rate hike in November is on the table, and that the unexpected outperformance of the US economy means rates in 2024 may not come down as much as expected.Communication Through ProjectionsThe June SEP revealed a peak Fed Funds terminal rate of 5.6% in 2023, which is then expected to come down to 4.6% in 2024, 3.4% in 2025, a long-run rate of 2.5%. Given the current data set, it seems most likely that the 2023 projection of 5.6% will remain while the 2024 and 2025 rates move higher and rate cuts are removed from the equation.Federal ReserveWhile the long-run rate stayed at 2.5% after the June meeting, its central tendency shifted from 2.4%-2.6% to 2.5%-2.8%. This suggests the Fed may see the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity, as potentially higher than before. A 2% inflation target implies a real interest rate of 0.5%. A higher long-run rate could mean the Fed estimates a higher neutral real rate for the economy.Bond Market See Higher RatesThe market may already be one step ahead of the Fed because currently, the market sees real rates at roughly 2% across the entire yield curve out to 30 years. Compare that to where the market saw rates back in September 2018, when the market saw a neutral rate closer to around 0.75%. In September 2018, the Fed's long-run rate was 3%, with a 2% inflation rate projecting a 1% real yield.BloombergThe bond market seems to be saying today that the Fed's idea of the long-run is too low, and that would suggest that one should pay particular attention to any changes in the long-run interest rate. Because it seems on the surface, just by looking at the direction of the earnings yield of the S&P 500, the equity market thinks a slew of rate cuts are coming. This is noted by the earnings yield moving lower while real yields are moving higher. This would suggest that the equity market still doesn't believe the Fed when it says that rates will have to stay restrictive for some time.BloombergWhat is interesting at this point is that the bond market is in almost complete agreement with the Fed regarding the path of rates, with a peak policy rate of 5.45%, while seeing rates falling to around 4.6% by the end of 2024, which is what the SEP was forecasting back in June.BloombergBut the question becomes more about that long-run rate because a 2% inflation rate and a 2% real yield would suggest that the nominal rates stay above 4.0% over a very long period. The Fed Funds futures see rates falling to around 4.1% by 2026 and never going below. This would suggest that the Fed cutting rates to 4.6% in 2024 is probably not likely, and that will result in that 2024 estimate rising, and it probably indicates that 2025 estimates of 3.4% is way too low and will need to rise above 4% as well.Difference of OpinionHowever, the equity market seems to be pricing a much lower long-run rate than the bond market. The current earnings yield of the S&P 500 over the next 12 months is 5.3%, while the 10-year real yield is 1.98%, a spread of 3.3%. Historically, that spread averages around 5.4% over the past ten years, a difference of about 2.1%. This means the S&P 500 should be trading with an earnings yield of about 7.4% and with a 5.4% premium over the 10-year real yield, we would get a 2% real yield plus a 2% inflation target rate, giving us a long-run rate of about 4%, almost the same as bonds. However, at an earning yield of 5.3% and an average premium of 5.4%, we get a real yield of -0.1%, plus a 2% inflation target rate would give us a long-run rate of 1.9%.BloombergThese spreads can change and valuation shift. However, if we just put the numbers aside. The message is that the bond market thinks rates will have to be restrictive for a long time, while the equity market thinks that rates won't be restrictive for a long time and that the Fed will be aggressively cutting rates.Of course, many things can change over the next two years, and trying to predict the next six months is hard enough, let alone the next 2 or 3 years. But that is not the point; the equity market is betting on many rate cuts, which is not what the bond market says. That message of higher for longer is likely to be shown in this week's FOMC SEP, which should show rate cuts being removed while the equity market still thinks big rate cuts are coming.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220524974116960,"gmtCreate":1694860502005,"gmtModify":1694860506144,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for Christmas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220524974116960","repostId":"2367285643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219466358464536,"gmtCreate":1694599881095,"gmtModify":1694599891947,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.&nbsp;","listText":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.&nbsp;","text":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219466358464536","repostId":"2366311286","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2366311286","pubTimestamp":1694618257,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2366311286?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-13 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy to Capitalize on the AI Revolution","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2366311286","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"There are no guarantees with investing, but the Portfolio Grader can help you target the best tech stocks to buy in today's market,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>: The current pullback is just an opportunity to buy some discounted MSFT shares.</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies</a>: Some analysts believe that Palantir isn’t growing fast enough to justify the increase in stock price.</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>: As the economy rebounds advertising dollars will return both for Google search and for products such as YouTube.</p></li><li><p>Keep reading for more tech stocks to buy to capitalize on the AI revolution!</p></li></ul><p>Tech stocks are some of the most appealing and popular in the stock market. But did you ever think about what makes investors so eager to find the best tech stocks to buy?</p><p>For me, finding the best tech stocks to buy is about the growth potential. Tech companies by nature are looking for innovative ways to do things or bring new technologies to market.</p><p>People get excited about advances in tech because they often have direct applications to their daily lives.</p><p>That nature can lead to revolutionary advances that change the world overnight. Companies have been working on artificial intelligence for a long time, but ChatGPT changed everything.</p><p>The AI program amazed the world late last year with its ability to hold conversations and respond to questions in an incredibly conversational and natural way, and now AI stocks are all the rage.</p><p>As an investor, choosing tech stocks to buy can be pretty exciting, particularly when companies can scale their products for the masses. That’s when the profits really roll in.</p><p>Tech stocks also face lots of competition, so you have to be prepared to take the good with the bad.</p><p>There are no guarantees with investing, but the Portfolio Grader can help you target the best tech stocks to buy.</p><h2 id=\"id_3402958327\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add500716bd32469f0f2d972cede4e7f\" alt=\"Source: The Art of Pics / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: The Art of Pics / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: The Art of Pics / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p>Microsoft was one of the biggest winners from the AI craze, thanks to its $13 billion investment since 2019 in OpenAI, the company that created ChatGPT. Microsoft was quick to integrate ChatGPT and its generative AI into the company’s Bing search engine.</p><p>The stock price pulled back a little in recent weeks as Microsoft disclosed that it’s not expected to see considerable growth in AI revenue this year, a classic case of the market getting ahead of itself.</p><p>But that’s OK. I think Microsoft still has a long way to go. Earnings should grow from $10.98 in this fiscal year (ending June 2024) to nearly $15 per share just two years later.</p><p>I think that the current pullback is just an opportunity to buy some discounted MSFT shares. Microsoft stock is up 37% in 2023 and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_2351639401\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies</a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa26c2edb454cbc4f85fb5a0576c934e\" alt=\"Source: Iljanaresvara Studio / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Iljanaresvara Studio / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Iljanaresvara Studio / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p>If you’re looking for another way to play AI, then Palantir Technologies is a good option.</p><p>I think investors who bailed out after the Q2 earnings report were being a little hasty.</p><p>Earnings were solid for the company, which sells custom data analytics software, helping companies analyze data to make decisions. Its largest customer remains the U.S. government.</p><p>Revenue of $533.3 million was up 12.7% from a year ago and was in line with analyst expectations. The company also posted net income of $28.1 million, up a whopping 113% from a year ago. Palantir also issued Q3 guidance in a range of $553 million to $557 million, which also was at the high end of analysts’ consensus estimate.</p><p>But the problem seems to be that some analysts believe Palantir isn’t growing fast enough to justify the increase in stock price. It’s up 136% this year.</p><p>PLTR stock gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_3496688428\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1c876e0444afbd5502b3f915a16cad\" alt=\"Source: Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p>If Microsoft can make money from AI by fusing its search engine with generative AI, then surely <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a> can as well, right?</p><p>Alphabet’s Google search engine still has better than 80% market share, although Microsoft is making inroads.</p><p>Alphabet is using generative AI tools to help users summarize text, define terms and do other fun tricks. It’s also launching AI features that will help programmers with coding tasks.</p><p>Meanwhile, 78% of Alphabet’s revenue comes from advertising. Advertising weakness has been a problem as of late for Alphabet, with 3% year-over-year growth in the second quarter dragging down the rest of the company.</p><p>However, as the economy rebounds, advertising dollars will return both for Google search and for products such as YouTube.</p><p>GOOG stock is up 53% this year and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_2680552838\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia </a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac130dee8c4458da31ded9768d0892eb\" alt=\"Source: Shutterstock\" title=\"Source: Shutterstock\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Shutterstock</span></p><p>No list of the best tech stocks to buy would be complete without <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>. You could make the argument that Nvidia is the most interesting and exciting tech stock of 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re saying the same thing next year.</p><p>Nvidia is the chip manufacturer that’s responsible for many of the chips used to power generative AI. Nivida has a market share of 80% to 95% in the AI computing market.</p><p>Earnings for the second quarter were just as impressive as Q1. Revenue was $13.51 million, which up from $6.7 billion a year and up 88% from Q1. Earnings of $2.70 per share beat expectations of $2.09.</p><p>NVDA stock is up 216% this year and that’s even <em>after </em>a pullback in the last two weeks, but this stock price is destined to hit $500 and more.</p><p>NVDA stock has an “A” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_4112825716\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce </a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748549e97b0be68bc9b4babab4e4a3fb\" alt=\"Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p>Salesforce is a San Francisco-based cloud software company. It provides management software for companies to manage sales, customer service, marketing automation, e-commerce, and analytics.</p><p>By helping businesses automate their sales and marketing processes, Salesforce can assist with capturing leads and email marketing.</p><p>AI is a major tool for Salesforce. Its Einstein product can create personalized marketing emails. It currently has more than 150,000 users for its customer relationship management platform.</p><p>Q2 revenue of $8.6 billion was up more than 11% from a year ago. The company also earned $2.12 per share, better than the $1.90 EPS that analysts expected.</p><p>CRM stock is up 67% this year and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_3360990178\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ac32d6a5d8b6eefe4078aea11b0cf5\" alt=\"Source: Aleem Zahid Khan / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Aleem Zahid Khan / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Aleem Zahid Khan / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p>After enduring a very difficult 2022, Facebook parent <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> is having a satisfyingly good year.</p><p>Second-quarter results were even better than analysts expected, with revenue of nearly $32 billion and EPS of $2.98. Profits were up over 16% on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>Meta raised a lot of eyebrows last year when it began investing billions into building the metaverse. And as Facebook’s growth stopped and advertisers fled the platform, Meta lost two-thirds of its value after peaking in 2021.</p><p>The metaverse hasn’t taken off like CEO Mark Zuckerberg may have hoped. But Meta’s strength this year is on the back of improvements in digital advertising, the continued strength of the Instagram platform and Meta’s Reels, which is a true competitor with <strong>TikTok</strong>.</p><p>Meta also launched Threads, a platform that’s very similar to <strong>X</strong> (the company formerly known as Twitter), which could become a solid revenue source.</p><p>META stock is up 148% this year, a solid bounce back from that awful 2022. It gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p><h2 id=\"id_1441759885\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUS\">ePlus Incorporated </a></h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c67092944928ef3d46e1f187ddad7c\" alt=\"Source: Shutterstock\" title=\"Source: Shutterstock\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/><span>Source: Shutterstock</span></p><p>Virginia-based <strong>ePlus Incorporated</strong> is an information technology services company.</p><p>It provides software solutions for cloud, data center, security, networking and AI.</p><p>It offers hardware, subscription software, professional and management services, desktop support and project management. The company also has a finance segment that handles underwriting, direct financing, accounting, risk management and asset management.</p><p>Results for the company’s fiscal Q1 2024 (ending June 30, 2023) included revenue of $574 million, an increase of 25% from a year ago. Operating income rose 40% to $46 million.</p><p>For the full 2024 fiscal year, ePlus issued guidance for sales between $2.23 billion and $2.33 billion, an increase from $2 billion in FY2023.</p><p>PLUS stock is up 47% in 2023 and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy to Capitalize on the AI Revolution</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 7 Best Tech Stocks to Buy to Capitalize on the AI Revolution\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-13 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/09/the-7-best-tech-stocks-to-buy-to-capitalize-on-the-ai-revolution/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft: The current pullback is just an opportunity to buy some discounted MSFT shares.Palantir Technologies: Some analysts believe that Palantir isn’t growing fast enough to justify the increase ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/09/the-7-best-tech-stocks-to-buy-to-capitalize-on-the-ai-revolution/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","MSFT":"微软","CRM":"赛富时","META":"Meta Platforms","NVDA":"英伟达","PLUS":"正羽科技","GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/09/the-7-best-tech-stocks-to-buy-to-capitalize-on-the-ai-revolution/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2366311286","content_text":"Microsoft: The current pullback is just an opportunity to buy some discounted MSFT shares.Palantir Technologies: Some analysts believe that Palantir isn’t growing fast enough to justify the increase in stock price.Alphabet: As the economy rebounds advertising dollars will return both for Google search and for products such as YouTube.Keep reading for more tech stocks to buy to capitalize on the AI revolution!Tech stocks are some of the most appealing and popular in the stock market. But did you ever think about what makes investors so eager to find the best tech stocks to buy?For me, finding the best tech stocks to buy is about the growth potential. Tech companies by nature are looking for innovative ways to do things or bring new technologies to market.People get excited about advances in tech because they often have direct applications to their daily lives.That nature can lead to revolutionary advances that change the world overnight. Companies have been working on artificial intelligence for a long time, but ChatGPT changed everything.The AI program amazed the world late last year with its ability to hold conversations and respond to questions in an incredibly conversational and natural way, and now AI stocks are all the rage.As an investor, choosing tech stocks to buy can be pretty exciting, particularly when companies can scale their products for the masses. That’s when the profits really roll in.Tech stocks also face lots of competition, so you have to be prepared to take the good with the bad.There are no guarantees with investing, but the Portfolio Grader can help you target the best tech stocks to buy.Microsoft Source: The Art of Pics / Shutterstock.comMicrosoft was one of the biggest winners from the AI craze, thanks to its $13 billion investment since 2019 in OpenAI, the company that created ChatGPT. Microsoft was quick to integrate ChatGPT and its generative AI into the company’s Bing search engine.The stock price pulled back a little in recent weeks as Microsoft disclosed that it’s not expected to see considerable growth in AI revenue this year, a classic case of the market getting ahead of itself.But that’s OK. I think Microsoft still has a long way to go. Earnings should grow from $10.98 in this fiscal year (ending June 2024) to nearly $15 per share just two years later.I think that the current pullback is just an opportunity to buy some discounted MSFT shares. Microsoft stock is up 37% in 2023 and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.Palantir TechnologiesSource: Iljanaresvara Studio / Shutterstock.comIf you’re looking for another way to play AI, then Palantir Technologies is a good option.I think investors who bailed out after the Q2 earnings report were being a little hasty.Earnings were solid for the company, which sells custom data analytics software, helping companies analyze data to make decisions. Its largest customer remains the U.S. government.Revenue of $533.3 million was up 12.7% from a year ago and was in line with analyst expectations. The company also posted net income of $28.1 million, up a whopping 113% from a year ago. Palantir also issued Q3 guidance in a range of $553 million to $557 million, which also was at the high end of analysts’ consensus estimate.But the problem seems to be that some analysts believe Palantir isn’t growing fast enough to justify the increase in stock price. It’s up 136% this year.PLTR stock gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.AlphabetSource: Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock.comIf Microsoft can make money from AI by fusing its search engine with generative AI, then surely Alphabet can as well, right?Alphabet’s Google search engine still has better than 80% market share, although Microsoft is making inroads.Alphabet is using generative AI tools to help users summarize text, define terms and do other fun tricks. It’s also launching AI features that will help programmers with coding tasks.Meanwhile, 78% of Alphabet’s revenue comes from advertising. Advertising weakness has been a problem as of late for Alphabet, with 3% year-over-year growth in the second quarter dragging down the rest of the company.However, as the economy rebounds, advertising dollars will return both for Google search and for products such as YouTube.GOOG stock is up 53% this year and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.Nvidia Source: ShutterstockNo list of the best tech stocks to buy would be complete without Nvidia. You could make the argument that Nvidia is the most interesting and exciting tech stock of 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re saying the same thing next year.Nvidia is the chip manufacturer that’s responsible for many of the chips used to power generative AI. Nivida has a market share of 80% to 95% in the AI computing market.Earnings for the second quarter were just as impressive as Q1. Revenue was $13.51 million, which up from $6.7 billion a year and up 88% from Q1. Earnings of $2.70 per share beat expectations of $2.09.NVDA stock is up 216% this year and that’s even after a pullback in the last two weeks, but this stock price is destined to hit $500 and more.NVDA stock has an “A” rating in the Portfolio Grader.Salesforce Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.comSalesforce is a San Francisco-based cloud software company. It provides management software for companies to manage sales, customer service, marketing automation, e-commerce, and analytics.By helping businesses automate their sales and marketing processes, Salesforce can assist with capturing leads and email marketing.AI is a major tool for Salesforce. Its Einstein product can create personalized marketing emails. It currently has more than 150,000 users for its customer relationship management platform.Q2 revenue of $8.6 billion was up more than 11% from a year ago. The company also earned $2.12 per share, better than the $1.90 EPS that analysts expected.CRM stock is up 67% this year and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.Meta PlatformsSource: Aleem Zahid Khan / Shutterstock.comAfter enduring a very difficult 2022, Facebook parent Meta Platforms is having a satisfyingly good year.Second-quarter results were even better than analysts expected, with revenue of nearly $32 billion and EPS of $2.98. Profits were up over 16% on a year-over-year basis.Meta raised a lot of eyebrows last year when it began investing billions into building the metaverse. And as Facebook’s growth stopped and advertisers fled the platform, Meta lost two-thirds of its value after peaking in 2021.The metaverse hasn’t taken off like CEO Mark Zuckerberg may have hoped. But Meta’s strength this year is on the back of improvements in digital advertising, the continued strength of the Instagram platform and Meta’s Reels, which is a true competitor with TikTok.Meta also launched Threads, a platform that’s very similar to X (the company formerly known as Twitter), which could become a solid revenue source.META stock is up 148% this year, a solid bounce back from that awful 2022. It gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.ePlus Incorporated Source: ShutterstockVirginia-based ePlus Incorporated is an information technology services company.It provides software solutions for cloud, data center, security, networking and AI.It offers hardware, subscription software, professional and management services, desktop support and project management. The company also has a finance segment that handles underwriting, direct financing, accounting, risk management and asset management.Results for the company’s fiscal Q1 2024 (ending June 30, 2023) included revenue of $574 million, an increase of 25% from a year ago. Operating income rose 40% to $46 million.For the full 2024 fiscal year, ePlus issued guidance for sales between $2.23 billion and $2.33 billion, an increase from $2 billion in FY2023.PLUS stock is up 47% in 2023 and gets a “B” rating in the Portfolio Grader.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216377545191592,"gmtCreate":1693826548890,"gmtModify":1693826553711,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","listText":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","text":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216377545191592","repostId":"2364379698","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209706692722712,"gmtCreate":1692237867909,"gmtModify":1692237872877,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","listText":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","text":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/209706692722712","repostId":"2359173728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2359173728","pubTimestamp":1692172800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2359173728?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-16 16:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Q2: If You Are Not Buying Now, When Will You?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2359173728","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Robert Way Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has had a hard time ever since the failed IPO of the Ant Group in November 2020. Following the long-standing Covid-19 restrictions, the world's sec","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_957459716\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited had a superb second quarter, surpassing expectations and showing re-accelerated sales growth and free cash flow generation.</p></li><li><p>BABA stock is by far the cheapest in its peer group and trades at a free cash flow yield of 12%.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s balance sheet is a fortress, with 31% of the market cap in cash and short-term investments larger than that of Amazon.</p></li><li><p>Free cash flow is silently moving closer to a new all-time high, while the stock price is back at prices of 6 years ago.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f805543ab3786cb8cb1d7d9034e0368\" alt=\"Robert Way\" title=\"Robert Way\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Robert Way</span></p><p><strong>Alibaba Group Holding Limited</strong> (NYSE:BABA) has had a hard time ever since the failed IPO of the Ant Group in November 2020. Following the long-standing Covid-19 restrictions, the world&#39;s second largest economy, China, slowed down temporarily. However, Alibaba showed re-acceleration of sales growth in the second quarter, signaling a rebound in consumer spending. The stock price is yet to recover, while free cash flow is closing in on a new all-time high. As a result, extreme undervaluation is present in one of China&#39;s wide moat businesses.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1eb1bbeb88b91bf4e2b55dfddd7e094\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3070070381\">Business Overview</h2><p>Alibaba is a multinational conglomerate based in China and one of the world&#39;s largest e-commerce and technology companies. Founded in 1999 by Jack Ma, Alibaba has rapidly grown into a wide moat business with various segments, making it a prominent player in the global digital economy. Here&#39;s an overview of Alibaba&#39;s key businesses and operations:</p><ol><li><p><strong>China Commerce</strong>:</p></li></ol><ul><li><p><strong>Taobao</strong>: Taobao is a consumer-to-consumer (C2C) online marketplace, akin to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>. It allows individual sellers and small businesses to set up online shops and sell a wide range of products directly to consumers. Taobao&#39;s user-friendly interface and extensive product variety have made it immensely popular in China.</p></li><li><p><strong>Tmall</strong>: Tmall is a business-to-consumer (B2C) platform that hosts official storefronts for well-known brands and retailers. It ensures product authenticity and quality, which has helped build consumer trust. Tmall&#39;s setup is more structured and regulated compared to Taobao, making it a preferred choice for established brands looking to tap into the Chinese market.</p></li><li><p><strong>阿里1688</strong>: 1688&#39;s platform serves the Chinese domestic market and is focused on wholesale transactions.</p></li></ul><p>2.<strong> International Commerce:</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>Alibaba.com</strong> serves as a global platform connecting businesses from around the world. Alibaba.com facilitates business-to-business (B2B) trade by connecting manufacturers, wholesalers, and suppliers with buyers internationally. The platform streamlines international trade by providing tools for communication, negotiation, and secure transactions.</p></li><li><p><strong>AliExpress</strong>: AliExpress is one of Alibaba&#39;s primary platforms for international commerce. AliExpress connects Chinese sellers with buyers from around the world, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices. Similar to Taobao, AliExpress primarily serves individual consumers and small businesses</p></li><li><p><strong>Lazada</strong>: Lazada is another e-commerce business with the largest part of customers in Southeast Asia.</p></li></ul><p>3. <strong>Local Consumer Services:</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>Ele.me</strong>: Ele.me is Alibaba&#39;s online delivery platform, connecting users with food and beverages, groceries, flowers and pharmaceutical products. Ele.me focuses on efficient last-mile delivery to ensure that orders reach customers quickly and fresh.</p></li><li><p><strong>AMAP</strong>: AMAP provides a range of location-based services, including digital maps, navigation, real-time traffic information, location-based search, and location-based advertising. AMAP&#39;s data and services can be integrated into other Alibaba services such as e-commerce platforms, ride-hailing apps,...</p></li></ul><p>4.<strong> Logistics and Supply Chain</strong>:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Cainiao Network</strong>: Alibaba&#39;s logistics affiliate focuses on improving supply chain efficiency and providing advanced logistics solutions to support the company&#39;s e-commerce operations.</p></li></ul><p>5. <strong>Cloud Computing</strong>:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Alibaba Cloud</strong>: Alibaba&#39;s cloud computing arm offers a comprehensive suite of cloud services, including computing power, storage, databases, analytics, and AI capabilities. It&#39;s a major player in the global cloud services market, competing with companies like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure.</p></li></ul><p>6.<strong> Digital Media and Entertainment</strong>:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Alibaba Pictures</strong>: This segment focuses on film production, distribution, and entertainment-related investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Youku Tudou</strong>: A prominent online video platform in China, often referred to as the &#34;YouTube of China.&#34; Alibaba acquired Youku Tudou to expand its digital media offerings.</p></li></ul><p>7.<strong> Digital Finance and Payments</strong>:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Alipay</strong>: Initially launched as an online payment platform for Alibaba&#39;s e-commerce sites, Alipay has evolved into a comprehensive digital financial services platform. It offers services like mobile payments, money transfers, investment options, and credit services.</p></li><li><p><strong>Ant Group</strong>: Ant Group, which is for 33% owned by Alibaba, operates Alipay and provides a wide range of financial services, including wealth management, insurance, and lending.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cb38f9aa68c1dc03427d8961c351fe6\" alt=\"Alibaba Annual Report\" title=\"Alibaba Annual Report\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Alibaba Annual Report</span></p><p>The first 6 business segments are soon to be split into 6 companies and will IPO separately, where each company will be run by its own CEO and board of directors. The size of Alibaba has increase a lot of over the last years and to let each segment run on full performance more agility is needed in the business.</p><h2 id=\"id_2495973310\">Superb Second Quarter</h2><p>Analysts were skeptical about the results of Alibaba and got blown away by a large double beat. The company increased revenue by 14% year-over-year to $32.29 billion, which beat estimates by $1.08 billion. Earnings per share came in at $2.40 (up 48% year-over-over), compared to the estimates of $2.01.</p><p>Alibaba saw re-accelerating growth in all of their segments. The Chinese market recovered from a 3% year-over-year decline to a 12% increase year-over-year. Noteworthy, international commerce grew 41% compared to 29% in the previous quarter. The cloud business also changed growth direction from a 2% decline in sales to 4% sales growth in Q2.</p><p>The cloud business growth slowed down a lot, but the CEO Daniel Zhang mentioned this in the latest earnings call:</p><blockquote>I think if you look at the cloud landscape in China, I think the total cloud infra as a percentage of the IT infra still in a lower -- actually, in a relatively low percentage as compared to the U.S. peers. So we still -- we see still the huge potential first in this cloud infra penetration. Secondly, I think with this AI revolution, I think that this brings incremental opportunities, and because today, all the companies want to use our AI capabilities to upgrade their services and in their own application. So -- but they need a high computing -- high-performance computing power to support this operation, not only in today&#39;s training, but also in the influence services to be provided. So I think these two are, we believe, the primary growth engine for the long term.</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4800da6a1b15bd467c0f832d6fcc35\" alt=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" title=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/><span>23Q2 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>Although I am not a big fan of EBITDA or EBITA (also called earnings before everything), this is the only way to compare the profitability of the different segments provided by Alibaba. Alibaba&#39;s profitability is improving across the board with the Logistics and Digital Media business as two new contributors to positive EBITA. Furthermore, the Cloud business grew EBITA 106% year-over-year and the International Commerce is finally closer to becoming a profitable business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a6e4bfa02f6f72acb91f3ad20c13a6\" alt=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" title=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\"/><span>23Q2 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>The most outstanding news in the earnings report was the comeback of free cash flow growth. Partly boosted by lower CAPEX, the free cash flow increased 76% year-over-year, nearing the all-time high of free cash flow in 2021. The company remained focused on returning value to shareholders through $3 billion in share buybacks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6db5c7fe38957ca068d196f4da28f44c\" alt=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" title=\"23Q2 Investor Presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\"/><span>23Q2 Investor Presentation</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1783532176\">Valuation</h2><p>I have chosen three other prominent players in the e-commerce business worldwide, that are similar to Alibaba, to compare various valuation metrics. The first metric covers the price-to-sales ratio. JD.com (JD) is easily beating their peers, followed by Alibaba at 1.9x price-to-sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d4faeb4c3d80d6b1552a27568c05ad\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Further, when we move on to my favorite metric the free cash flow yield, we can see who has the strongest profitability and efficiencies. Alibaba is above and beyond the others with a free cash flow yield of 12%. The next peer is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a> (MELI), whose free cash flow yield is standing at a solid 6%. The worst performer by far is Amazon (AMZN), with a free cash flow yield of 0.2%.</p><p>When I was writing my article around <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META) in November 2022, the free cash flow yield was at 8.5%. This was really exceptional for a business of that caliber. Since my article, Meta is up 170%, so who knows what will happen to Alibaba.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671c3bd0ed9af7374bc8799e00766ef3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In addition, Alibaba is even more undervalued compared to the peers based on EV-to-free cash flow. EV stands for enterprise value and this takes into account the market cap combined with total debt minus cash and cash equivalents.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4489c04d21639a2aeae784d76943b1fd\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Despite, JD&#39;s large number of sales compared to their market cap, it is underperforming in profitability by quite a margin. Alibaba is once again the leader with profit margins of 9%, followed by 6% for MercadoLibre.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faade79d9ade5b61198980476e4f02d6\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2574390991\">Balance Sheet</h2><p>Although Amazon has 5.8x times the market cap of Alibaba, Alibaba&#39;s cash and short term investments top those of the e-commerce king Amazon. Alibaba&#39;s cash and short-term investments were $75 billion in the latest earnings report and accounted for 31% of the current market cap. This liquidity can further enhance investments in business opportunities.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef8f21fdf29382ba230d26601e48b3f3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Alibaba&#39;s current ratio is almost reaching 2x and the total liabilities ($86 billion) are even lower than the current assets ($100 billion), showcasing the fortress balance sheet the company has amassed.</p><p>The balance sheet makes it possible to buy back shares of their own company at the discounted value it is trading at. During the fiscal year 2023, Alibaba repurchased almost $11 billion or 4.5% of shares outstanding. After the second quarter, the company has $16.3 billion remaining under the current share buyback program, or 6.6% of shares outstanding.</p><h2 id=\"id_3899631669\">Risks</h2><p>However, investors need to keep in mind that Alibaba has been identified by the SEC under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. This means the company will be delisted by 2024, if they do not show the right auditing under the rules of the United States.</p><p>In the annual report of Alibaba, you can find the following positive statement:</p><blockquote>Following that, on December 15, 2022, the PCAOB announced that it was able to secure complete access to inspect and investigate PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong in 2022. The PCAOB vacated its previous 2021 determinations that the PCAOB was unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. For this reason, we do not expect to be identified as a Commission Identified Issuer following the filing of this annual report.</blockquote><p>The dual listing in Hong Kong lowers the risk of losing money must a delisting ever were to happen. Your shares could be converted into Hong Kong listed shares or you can re-buy your shares at the Hong Kong exchange yourself for a similar price, because the dual listing trades around the same price on the New York and Hong Kong exchange.</p><h2 id=\"id_3530803526\">Takeaway</h2><p>Few understand that the COVID-19 era has only recently ended in China, but more and more signs come in that China is ready to bounce back. The drop in Alibaba&#39;s share price was not completely risk driven and also partly justified in the drop of profitability and free cash flow after the incredible years of 2020 and 2021. The free cash flow generation is back on trend and is likely to go higher. Investors are known to exaggerate risks in a downtrend and Alibaba is no exception at all. Once the price recovers, supported by business performance and share buybacks, the risks we heard so loudly in 2021 and 2022 will play on the background.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2226ea270a689d4aaa6bb2f4d5714a\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I rate Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock a &#34;Strong Buy&#34; around $100 a share. The company is fundamentally exceptional and undervalued compared to the closest peers. The management is shareholder friendly with strong support of share repurchases. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s restructuring is likely to lead to more focus, efficiencies and profitability in all the different segments. China is easing up regulatory moves on businesses, has cut interest rates and is expected to boost the economy with another stimulus. Positive momentum is building up, which seems to me like a great opportunity to start a position in one of China&#39;s best businesses out there.</p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Q2: If You Are Not Buying Now, When Will You?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Q2: If You Are Not Buying Now, When Will You?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-16 16:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628155-alibaba-q2-if-you-are-not-buying-now-when-will-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba Group Holding Limited had a superb second quarter, surpassing expectations and showing re-accelerated sales growth and free cash flow generation.BABA stock is by far the cheapest in its...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628155-alibaba-q2-if-you-are-not-buying-now-when-will-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4628155-alibaba-q2-if-you-are-not-buying-now-when-will-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2359173728","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba Group Holding Limited had a superb second quarter, surpassing expectations and showing re-accelerated sales growth and free cash flow generation.BABA stock is by far the cheapest in its peer group and trades at a free cash flow yield of 12%.The company's balance sheet is a fortress, with 31% of the market cap in cash and short-term investments larger than that of Amazon.Free cash flow is silently moving closer to a new all-time high, while the stock price is back at prices of 6 years ago.Robert WayAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has had a hard time ever since the failed IPO of the Ant Group in November 2020. Following the long-standing Covid-19 restrictions, the world's second largest economy, China, slowed down temporarily. However, Alibaba showed re-acceleration of sales growth in the second quarter, signaling a rebound in consumer spending. The stock price is yet to recover, while free cash flow is closing in on a new all-time high. As a result, extreme undervaluation is present in one of China's wide moat businesses.Data by YChartsBusiness OverviewAlibaba is a multinational conglomerate based in China and one of the world's largest e-commerce and technology companies. Founded in 1999 by Jack Ma, Alibaba has rapidly grown into a wide moat business with various segments, making it a prominent player in the global digital economy. Here's an overview of Alibaba's key businesses and operations:China Commerce:Taobao: Taobao is a consumer-to-consumer (C2C) online marketplace, akin to eBay. It allows individual sellers and small businesses to set up online shops and sell a wide range of products directly to consumers. Taobao's user-friendly interface and extensive product variety have made it immensely popular in China.Tmall: Tmall is a business-to-consumer (B2C) platform that hosts official storefronts for well-known brands and retailers. It ensures product authenticity and quality, which has helped build consumer trust. Tmall's setup is more structured and regulated compared to Taobao, making it a preferred choice for established brands looking to tap into the Chinese market.阿里1688: 1688's platform serves the Chinese domestic market and is focused on wholesale transactions.2. International Commerce:Alibaba.com serves as a global platform connecting businesses from around the world. Alibaba.com facilitates business-to-business (B2B) trade by connecting manufacturers, wholesalers, and suppliers with buyers internationally. The platform streamlines international trade by providing tools for communication, negotiation, and secure transactions.AliExpress: AliExpress is one of Alibaba's primary platforms for international commerce. AliExpress connects Chinese sellers with buyers from around the world, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices. Similar to Taobao, AliExpress primarily serves individual consumers and small businessesLazada: Lazada is another e-commerce business with the largest part of customers in Southeast Asia.3. Local Consumer Services:Ele.me: Ele.me is Alibaba's online delivery platform, connecting users with food and beverages, groceries, flowers and pharmaceutical products. Ele.me focuses on efficient last-mile delivery to ensure that orders reach customers quickly and fresh.AMAP: AMAP provides a range of location-based services, including digital maps, navigation, real-time traffic information, location-based search, and location-based advertising. AMAP's data and services can be integrated into other Alibaba services such as e-commerce platforms, ride-hailing apps,...4. Logistics and Supply Chain:Cainiao Network: Alibaba's logistics affiliate focuses on improving supply chain efficiency and providing advanced logistics solutions to support the company's e-commerce operations.5. Cloud Computing:Alibaba Cloud: Alibaba's cloud computing arm offers a comprehensive suite of cloud services, including computing power, storage, databases, analytics, and AI capabilities. It's a major player in the global cloud services market, competing with companies like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure.6. Digital Media and Entertainment:Alibaba Pictures: This segment focuses on film production, distribution, and entertainment-related investments.Youku Tudou: A prominent online video platform in China, often referred to as the \"YouTube of China.\" Alibaba acquired Youku Tudou to expand its digital media offerings.7. Digital Finance and Payments:Alipay: Initially launched as an online payment platform for Alibaba's e-commerce sites, Alipay has evolved into a comprehensive digital financial services platform. It offers services like mobile payments, money transfers, investment options, and credit services.Ant Group: Ant Group, which is for 33% owned by Alibaba, operates Alipay and provides a wide range of financial services, including wealth management, insurance, and lending.Alibaba Annual ReportThe first 6 business segments are soon to be split into 6 companies and will IPO separately, where each company will be run by its own CEO and board of directors. The size of Alibaba has increase a lot of over the last years and to let each segment run on full performance more agility is needed in the business.Superb Second QuarterAnalysts were skeptical about the results of Alibaba and got blown away by a large double beat. The company increased revenue by 14% year-over-year to $32.29 billion, which beat estimates by $1.08 billion. Earnings per share came in at $2.40 (up 48% year-over-over), compared to the estimates of $2.01.Alibaba saw re-accelerating growth in all of their segments. The Chinese market recovered from a 3% year-over-year decline to a 12% increase year-over-year. Noteworthy, international commerce grew 41% compared to 29% in the previous quarter. The cloud business also changed growth direction from a 2% decline in sales to 4% sales growth in Q2.The cloud business growth slowed down a lot, but the CEO Daniel Zhang mentioned this in the latest earnings call:I think if you look at the cloud landscape in China, I think the total cloud infra as a percentage of the IT infra still in a lower -- actually, in a relatively low percentage as compared to the U.S. peers. So we still -- we see still the huge potential first in this cloud infra penetration. Secondly, I think with this AI revolution, I think that this brings incremental opportunities, and because today, all the companies want to use our AI capabilities to upgrade their services and in their own application. So -- but they need a high computing -- high-performance computing power to support this operation, not only in today's training, but also in the influence services to be provided. So I think these two are, we believe, the primary growth engine for the long term.23Q2 Investor PresentationAlthough I am not a big fan of EBITDA or EBITA (also called earnings before everything), this is the only way to compare the profitability of the different segments provided by Alibaba. Alibaba's profitability is improving across the board with the Logistics and Digital Media business as two new contributors to positive EBITA. Furthermore, the Cloud business grew EBITA 106% year-over-year and the International Commerce is finally closer to becoming a profitable business.23Q2 Investor PresentationThe most outstanding news in the earnings report was the comeback of free cash flow growth. Partly boosted by lower CAPEX, the free cash flow increased 76% year-over-year, nearing the all-time high of free cash flow in 2021. The company remained focused on returning value to shareholders through $3 billion in share buybacks.23Q2 Investor PresentationValuationI have chosen three other prominent players in the e-commerce business worldwide, that are similar to Alibaba, to compare various valuation metrics. The first metric covers the price-to-sales ratio. JD.com (JD) is easily beating their peers, followed by Alibaba at 1.9x price-to-sales.Data by YChartsFurther, when we move on to my favorite metric the free cash flow yield, we can see who has the strongest profitability and efficiencies. Alibaba is above and beyond the others with a free cash flow yield of 12%. The next peer is MercadoLibre (MELI), whose free cash flow yield is standing at a solid 6%. The worst performer by far is Amazon (AMZN), with a free cash flow yield of 0.2%.When I was writing my article around Meta Platforms (META) in November 2022, the free cash flow yield was at 8.5%. This was really exceptional for a business of that caliber. Since my article, Meta is up 170%, so who knows what will happen to Alibaba.Data by YChartsIn addition, Alibaba is even more undervalued compared to the peers based on EV-to-free cash flow. EV stands for enterprise value and this takes into account the market cap combined with total debt minus cash and cash equivalents.Data by YChartsDespite, JD's large number of sales compared to their market cap, it is underperforming in profitability by quite a margin. Alibaba is once again the leader with profit margins of 9%, followed by 6% for MercadoLibre.Data by YChartsBalance SheetAlthough Amazon has 5.8x times the market cap of Alibaba, Alibaba's cash and short term investments top those of the e-commerce king Amazon. Alibaba's cash and short-term investments were $75 billion in the latest earnings report and accounted for 31% of the current market cap. This liquidity can further enhance investments in business opportunities.Data by YChartsAlibaba's current ratio is almost reaching 2x and the total liabilities ($86 billion) are even lower than the current assets ($100 billion), showcasing the fortress balance sheet the company has amassed.The balance sheet makes it possible to buy back shares of their own company at the discounted value it is trading at. During the fiscal year 2023, Alibaba repurchased almost $11 billion or 4.5% of shares outstanding. After the second quarter, the company has $16.3 billion remaining under the current share buyback program, or 6.6% of shares outstanding.RisksHowever, investors need to keep in mind that Alibaba has been identified by the SEC under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. This means the company will be delisted by 2024, if they do not show the right auditing under the rules of the United States.In the annual report of Alibaba, you can find the following positive statement:Following that, on December 15, 2022, the PCAOB announced that it was able to secure complete access to inspect and investigate PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong in 2022. The PCAOB vacated its previous 2021 determinations that the PCAOB was unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. For this reason, we do not expect to be identified as a Commission Identified Issuer following the filing of this annual report.The dual listing in Hong Kong lowers the risk of losing money must a delisting ever were to happen. Your shares could be converted into Hong Kong listed shares or you can re-buy your shares at the Hong Kong exchange yourself for a similar price, because the dual listing trades around the same price on the New York and Hong Kong exchange.TakeawayFew understand that the COVID-19 era has only recently ended in China, but more and more signs come in that China is ready to bounce back. The drop in Alibaba's share price was not completely risk driven and also partly justified in the drop of profitability and free cash flow after the incredible years of 2020 and 2021. The free cash flow generation is back on trend and is likely to go higher. Investors are known to exaggerate risks in a downtrend and Alibaba is no exception at all. Once the price recovers, supported by business performance and share buybacks, the risks we heard so loudly in 2021 and 2022 will play on the background.Data by YChartsI rate Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock a \"Strong Buy\" around $100 a share. The company is fundamentally exceptional and undervalued compared to the closest peers. The management is shareholder friendly with strong support of share repurchases. Furthermore, Alibaba's restructuring is likely to lead to more focus, efficiencies and profitability in all the different segments. China is easing up regulatory moves on businesses, has cut interest rates and is expected to boost the economy with another stimulus. Positive momentum is building up, which seems to me like a great opportunity to start a position in one of China's best businesses out there.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209170058526776,"gmtCreate":1692103726878,"gmtModify":1692103734642,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","listText":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","text":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/209170058526776","repostId":"2359073891","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2359073891","pubTimestamp":1691970141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2359073891?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-14 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: A Mouthwatering Prospect Ahead Of Q2 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2359073891","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"kokkai Singapore-headquartered leading internet company Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is slated to report its second-quarter or FQ2 earnings release on August 15. However, investors' sentiments heading into i","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1209698975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Sea Limited will report its second-quarter earnings on August 15, with investors&#39; sentiments much more pessimistic than its previous first-quarter release.</p></li><li><p>I assessed that the recent pessimism aligns constructively for SE heading into its pivotal Q2 release, as investors remain worried about its profitability push.</p></li><li><p>Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that Sea Limited is expected to experience significant operating leverage gains over the next two years. However, its valuation suggests investors have not priced it in.</p></li><li><p>While TikTok&#39;s market share gains must be observed carefully, Sea Limited&#39;s market leadership and significant scale in Southeast Asia position it well for a tough battle.</p></li><li><p>I make the case for why buyers have been quietly accumulating ahead of SE&#39;s Q2 earnings release. High-conviction investors should join me in adding SE before it potentially surges subsequently.</p></li></ul><p>Singapore-headquartered leading internet company Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is slated to report its second-quarter or FQ2 earnings release on August 15. However, investors&#39; sentiments heading into its upcoming report card are assessed to be much less optimistic than SE&#39;s pre-Q1 sentiments (which I cautioned previously).</p><p>Accordingly, SE has continued to hover close to the $58 support level, well below its May 2023 high of $88 (down nearly 35%). As such, I assessed the pessimism augurs well for buyers looking to pounce on a potentially more optimistic outlook from management, despite the persistence of near-term macroeconomic headwinds in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Analysts&#39; estimates for Sea Limited suggest it is primed to continue gaining operating leverage through the rest of the year, indicating a robust path toward sustainable profitability.</p><p>Accordingly, Sea Limited is expected to report revenue of $3.25B in FQ2, up 10.4% YoY. As such, investors should expect Sea Limited&#39;s Q1 revenue growth of 4.9% to mark the bottom in its normalization phase. With that in mind, unless management emerges with significantly worse guidance than anticipated, I assess that the worst in SE is likely priced in.</p><p>Full-year adjusted EBITDA estimates for Sea Limited are expected to reach $2.02B for FY23, based on a margin of about 15%. Therefore, it&#39;s a critical milestone for Sea Limited to deliver, demonstrating to investors that it can subscribe to sustainable growth. Based on the forecast period through FY25, Sea Limited is expected to deliver an adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 36.6% from FY23-25. Therefore, I assessed that SE should remain priced at a premium as a growth stock, as seen with its &#34;B+&#34; growth grade assigned by Seeking Alpha Quant.</p><p>Much will depend on Sea Limited&#39;s market leadership position in Southeast Asia, even as TikTok (BDNCE) and Lazada (BABA) ramp up pressure. Alibaba&#39;s restructuring efforts could provide more firepower and focus for Lazada to recover its leadership against Shopee (Sea Limited&#39;s e-commerce unit). With the Chinese economy still suffering from a slow recovery from its post-COVID reopening, Alibaba&#39;s recent significant investment in Lazada shouldn&#39;t come as a surprise.</p><p>Moreover, TikTok is attempting to take on the market leaders with renewed vigor under the close watch of CEO Show Zi Chew. The Singaporean CEO has shaken up his e-commerce executive ranks as the ByteDance-owned company ventures further into its e-commerce drive. TikTok was reported to have ambitions to grow its gross merchandise value, or GMV, to $20B. In Southeast Asia, its GMV &#34;quadrupled to $4.4 billion in 2022 compared to the previous year.&#34;</p><p>However, the Indonesian government recently introduced legislation prohibiting sales of imported goods &#34;under $100 on e-commerce sites and social media platforms to protect local businesses.&#34; Given the company&#39;s increasing e-commerce gains, the ban could be aimed at TikTok. Concerns were raised about &#34;TikTok&#39;s e-commerce push potentially flooding the market with Chinese products.&#34;</p><p>I didn&#39;t glean significant selling sentiments that threatened SE&#39;s critical support level of $58. As such, I assessed that SE buyers likely weren&#39;t unduly with the intended target of the recent regulatory changes in Indonesia (a key market for Shopee).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f42c5835a73c528a23f0b69f4bf2f2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/></p><p>SE price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>As seen above, SE has robustly held the $58 support zone since February 2023. It indicates a higher low market structure as SE bottomed out decisively in November 2022.</p><p>While May&#39;s significant selloff spooked investors&#39; sentiments, the critical observation of buyers resolutely defending the $58 level is substantial. It suggests that SE could still recover its nascent medium-term uptrend recovery that is in danger of turning back downward.</p><p>With SE priced at an FY25 EBITDA multiple of 8.2x, the market seems relatively pessimistic about Sea Limited&#39;s ability to execute its profitable growth strategies. In other words, the robust buying sentiments seen at the $58 level are assessed as an accumulation zone rather than a distribution. SE is still priced attractively relative to its potentially significant gains in operating leverage over the next two years.</p><p>Therefore, I assessed that the setup for SE heading into its upcoming earnings release is constructive. Investors should capitalize on its recent pessimism to add more exposure before it potentially surges higher on a better-than-expected release.</p><p><em>Rating: Maintain Speculative Buy. Please note that a Buy rating is equivalent to a Bullish or Market Outperform rating.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: A Mouthwatering Prospect Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: A Mouthwatering Prospect Ahead Of Q2 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-14 07:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627924-sea-limited-a-mouthwatering-prospect-ahead-of-q2-earnings><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySea Limited will report its second-quarter earnings on August 15, with investors' sentiments much more pessimistic than its previous first-quarter release.I assessed that the recent pessimism ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627924-sea-limited-a-mouthwatering-prospect-ahead-of-q2-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627924-sea-limited-a-mouthwatering-prospect-ahead-of-q2-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2359073891","content_text":"SummarySea Limited will report its second-quarter earnings on August 15, with investors' sentiments much more pessimistic than its previous first-quarter release.I assessed that the recent pessimism aligns constructively for SE heading into its pivotal Q2 release, as investors remain worried about its profitability push.Analysts' estimates suggest that Sea Limited is expected to experience significant operating leverage gains over the next two years. However, its valuation suggests investors have not priced it in.While TikTok's market share gains must be observed carefully, Sea Limited's market leadership and significant scale in Southeast Asia position it well for a tough battle.I make the case for why buyers have been quietly accumulating ahead of SE's Q2 earnings release. High-conviction investors should join me in adding SE before it potentially surges subsequently.Singapore-headquartered leading internet company Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is slated to report its second-quarter or FQ2 earnings release on August 15. However, investors' sentiments heading into its upcoming report card are assessed to be much less optimistic than SE's pre-Q1 sentiments (which I cautioned previously).Accordingly, SE has continued to hover close to the $58 support level, well below its May 2023 high of $88 (down nearly 35%). As such, I assessed the pessimism augurs well for buyers looking to pounce on a potentially more optimistic outlook from management, despite the persistence of near-term macroeconomic headwinds in Southeast Asia.Analysts' estimates for Sea Limited suggest it is primed to continue gaining operating leverage through the rest of the year, indicating a robust path toward sustainable profitability.Accordingly, Sea Limited is expected to report revenue of $3.25B in FQ2, up 10.4% YoY. As such, investors should expect Sea Limited's Q1 revenue growth of 4.9% to mark the bottom in its normalization phase. With that in mind, unless management emerges with significantly worse guidance than anticipated, I assess that the worst in SE is likely priced in.Full-year adjusted EBITDA estimates for Sea Limited are expected to reach $2.02B for FY23, based on a margin of about 15%. Therefore, it's a critical milestone for Sea Limited to deliver, demonstrating to investors that it can subscribe to sustainable growth. Based on the forecast period through FY25, Sea Limited is expected to deliver an adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 36.6% from FY23-25. Therefore, I assessed that SE should remain priced at a premium as a growth stock, as seen with its \"B+\" growth grade assigned by Seeking Alpha Quant.Much will depend on Sea Limited's market leadership position in Southeast Asia, even as TikTok (BDNCE) and Lazada (BABA) ramp up pressure. Alibaba's restructuring efforts could provide more firepower and focus for Lazada to recover its leadership against Shopee (Sea Limited's e-commerce unit). With the Chinese economy still suffering from a slow recovery from its post-COVID reopening, Alibaba's recent significant investment in Lazada shouldn't come as a surprise.Moreover, TikTok is attempting to take on the market leaders with renewed vigor under the close watch of CEO Show Zi Chew. The Singaporean CEO has shaken up his e-commerce executive ranks as the ByteDance-owned company ventures further into its e-commerce drive. TikTok was reported to have ambitions to grow its gross merchandise value, or GMV, to $20B. In Southeast Asia, its GMV \"quadrupled to $4.4 billion in 2022 compared to the previous year.\"However, the Indonesian government recently introduced legislation prohibiting sales of imported goods \"under $100 on e-commerce sites and social media platforms to protect local businesses.\" Given the company's increasing e-commerce gains, the ban could be aimed at TikTok. Concerns were raised about \"TikTok's e-commerce push potentially flooding the market with Chinese products.\"I didn't glean significant selling sentiments that threatened SE's critical support level of $58. As such, I assessed that SE buyers likely weren't unduly with the intended target of the recent regulatory changes in Indonesia (a key market for Shopee).SE price chart (weekly) (TradingView)As seen above, SE has robustly held the $58 support zone since February 2023. It indicates a higher low market structure as SE bottomed out decisively in November 2022.While May's significant selloff spooked investors' sentiments, the critical observation of buyers resolutely defending the $58 level is substantial. It suggests that SE could still recover its nascent medium-term uptrend recovery that is in danger of turning back downward.With SE priced at an FY25 EBITDA multiple of 8.2x, the market seems relatively pessimistic about Sea Limited's ability to execute its profitable growth strategies. In other words, the robust buying sentiments seen at the $58 level are assessed as an accumulation zone rather than a distribution. SE is still priced attractively relative to its potentially significant gains in operating leverage over the next two years.Therefore, I assessed that the setup for SE heading into its upcoming earnings release is constructive. Investors should capitalize on its recent pessimism to add more exposure before it potentially surges higher on a better-than-expected release.Rating: Maintain Speculative Buy. Please note that a Buy rating is equivalent to a Bullish or Market Outperform rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":200226579378416,"gmtCreate":1689917816847,"gmtModify":1689917821012,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought&nbsp;","listText":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought&nbsp;","text":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/200226579378416","repostId":"2352041065","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197832221515856,"gmtCreate":1689333057486,"gmtModify":1689333062210,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","listText":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","text":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197832221515856","repostId":"2351051434","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197130749452424,"gmtCreate":1689167780922,"gmtModify":1689168095761,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin&nbsp;","listText":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin&nbsp;","text":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197130749452424","repostId":"2350150577","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190738238341344,"gmtCreate":1687592624370,"gmtModify":1687593908114,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","listText":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","text":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190738238341344","repostId":"2345721975","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186888897245336,"gmtCreate":1686666605878,"gmtModify":1686668172260,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???&nbsp;","listText":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???&nbsp;","text":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186888897245336","repostId":"2339932022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183970501087384,"gmtCreate":1685936001634,"gmtModify":1685939594324,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","listText":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","text":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183970501087384","repostId":"2340029708","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2340029708","pubTimestamp":1685934265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2340029708?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-05 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Don't Fear Apple Pay And Stripe","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2340029708","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPayPal's fundamentals remain strong despite competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Strip","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>PayPal&#39;s fundamentals remain strong despite competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Stripe, as it continues to grow in transaction volume, customer numbers, and profits.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s dominant market share is due to its long-standing trust, ease of use, and compatibility with all devices and operating platforms.</p></li><li><p>With a potential upside of 18.63% IRR over the next 10 years, PayPal is considered a &#34;Strong Buy&#34; despite temporary headwinds and competitive threats.</p></li></ul><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p>Let&#39;s face it: it has been a difficult year for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>, to say the least. Despite a strong start to the year, it is currently down 11.47% YTD, compared to the S&amp;P 500 which is up 10.73%.</p><p>Therefore, we will address the reasons why investors may be too bearish on PayPal, overestimating competitive threats and overstating temporary headwinds while the company is fully focused on returning capital to shareholders and maximizing PayPal&#39;s efficiency. We will quantify these risks, outline what an extreme downside scenario might look like and why we think the stock could generate investors more than an annual 18% IRR over the next 10 years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe96ea8d295fb409a308812da70f8804\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Quantifying Headwinds</h2><p>Since competition is top-of-mind when it comes to investors thinking about investing in PayPal, especially the growth of Apple Pay, we discuss our take on why the market may be too bearish on the company.</p><p>That said, we currently note that other payment gateways such as Stripe, Shop Pay (SHOP), Google Pay (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Apple Pay (AAPL) are the main perceived threats to PayPal&#39;s business model. First, it is important to note that these payment method alternatives have not just been around since last year, either. Shopify Payments has been around since 2013, Google Pay for more than 5 years and Apple Pay since 2014. And yet, despite the growth of other payment providers, PayPal has continued to grow in transaction volume, customer numbers and profits.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21e690d212b5c123f855f110dd09bfec\" alt=\"PayPal IR\" title=\"PayPal IR\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/><span>PayPal IR</span></p><p>In 2022, PayPal alone processed a staggering total payment volume of $1.36 trillion, rivaling the largest credit card providers such as Mastercard (MA) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> (V), which have been around since the 1960s, and Amex (AXP), which was founded in the 1800s. On an annual basis, PayPal processed $1.42T in volume in the first quarter, and it is likely that this will continue even without user growth, as PayPal and the companies they represent are able to pass on the cost of inflation over time.</p><p>A company in the payments industry that is still processing $1.42T in volume and growing also does not sound like a company on the verge of bankruptcy in our eyes. Apple Pay is reportedly already processing more than $6T in transactions per year, far outpacing PayPal and even Mastercard &amp; Amex. We ask ourselves: why is it that PayPal&#39;s fundamentals have remained robust, while other players like Apple Pay have recently captured a huge market share?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b1ca44c072a7111eaffc3b60273bde\" alt=\"Statista\" title=\"Statista\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\"/><span>Statista</span></p><p>We think PayPal&#39;s dominant market share is mostly due to the fact that people have trusted PayPal for more than 20 years and still find it the easiest, fastest and most versatile way to transfer money and make online purchases.</p><p>Some will point to Apple Pay as a direct competitor to PayPal, but there are certainly differences between the two. First, Apple Pay operates within the Apple ecosystem and is a great way for Apple to protect its moat and provide more value to users of the Apple ecosystem. However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, Apple&#39;s global smartphone market share was 24.1%. Despite Apple Pay being a great service, retailers offering Apple Pay only target the population of people who have Apple products. Unlike PayPal, which works on all devices and operating platforms. Merchants using Apple Pay also still have to pay the overheads they have to pay to card operators such as Amex and Visa.</p><p>We see Apple Pay as more of a competitor to Venmo, especially replacing cash/bank transfers between individuals. Venmo currently accounts for 18% of PayPal&#39;s revenue. Unless everyone switches to Apple, Apple Pay just isn&#39;t a universal payment method like PayPal is.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f797682cbd096423c40e172b6897a2\" alt=\"PayPal IR\" title=\"PayPal IR\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/><span>PayPal IR</span></p><p>As we see it, customers will continue to use PayPal because it has always been a trusted payment method. Just as Amex, Visa and Mastercard are dominant, PayPal gets its advantage from being the payment processor that has been around the longest and has the largest network with the most businesses and customers using it.</p><p>In other words, we do not believe that consumers already have a meaningful reason to stop using the service, nor does it seem likely that this will happen anytime soon in the future. If there were to be margin pressure at all, we believe it would come from the merchant side and not from the consumer side. However, we believe that margins will remain intact as long as merchants achieve significantly more conversions when they accept PayPal than without it. As it stands now, as shown in the statistics above, merchants who use PayPal typically see a 33% increase in completed checkouts compared to other card providers. PayPal also provides 20% more repeat buyers, and customers are more likely to buy because it only takes a few clicks.</p><p>Even in the unlikely event that another excellent payment processor or revolutionary technology comes up to challenge PayPal, we think it may take quite a while for PayPal customers to switch/adapt to something else, especially in the older cohort of PayPal users who have sworn by its security and ease of use.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1622ca50bb2202dac27853108ed9333e\" alt=\"PayPal IR\" title=\"PayPal IR\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/><span>PayPal IR</span></p><p>In a sense, we see PayPal in the same way as e-mail providers such as Gmail, which is the largest e-mail provider in the world. Why do users use Gmail? The answer probably lies in the fact that it is the most widely used, safe and secure e-mail provider which is free of charge.</p><p>Are there better alternatives to Gmail? Perhaps there are. But what would be the motivation to change e-mail providers? After all, most people who use Gmail can use it for free, and switching providers would be a huge headache. Not to mention the need to change all the services/contacts still linked to your old e-mail provider. With PayPal, it is similar, as people usually have multiple subscriptions like Netflix, Uber Eats or a Lime/Bird scooter attached to an account that are automatically charged every month or when you use the service.</p><p>PayPal has also recently begun to solidify its moat, by now accepting Apple Pay as part of its &#34;Complete Payments Solutions.&#34; Small businesses can now accept methods such as Apple Pay, Mastercard, Visa and others while still processing through PayPal, protecting their dominance against Stripe, Android and Apple Pay.</p><h2>Look Down, Not Up</h2><p>From a fundamental perspective, we are always looking for companies with a lot of downside protection and a margin of safety. The saying &#34;look down, not up&#34; still applies if you ask us. So we look at where PayPal might bottom out, and what a worst-case scenario would look like.</p><p>Looking across the board at other major tech giants over the past 10 years and their Free Cash Flow yield over time, a few companies stand out. Apple, Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) all saw their FCF yield skyrocket during times of worry. With Meta, this was last year, when growth peaked and margins fell, and fears of competition from TikTok played a role. Apple and Microsoft, although extremely robust companies, at one point reached FCF yield of 11.75% and 8.10%, respectively. At Apple, this was likely due to concerns about demand in 2016, while Microsoft had similar concerns about future growth in the early 2010s.</p><p>We think PayPal is a similar scenario to Meta, which we also gave a buy rating when it was trading at $114.5 or an FCF yield of about 8.5%. In the same article, we believed it was only a matter of time before the headwinds disappeared and management changed course, unlocking efficiencies. Now that the headwinds have dissipated, and the company announced &#34;the year of efficiency&#34;, Meta is trading at an FCF yield of only 2.41% after its recovery.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8284c67317f9cdd8ada2ea4eafc13752\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>But it is also important to note that Meta shot even beyond 8.5% and even crossed the 10% FCF yield threshold. In recent history, most of these tech giants achieved FCF yield of 8-9% at most. If we did the same for PayPal, at an FCF yield of 8% on a TTM basis, PayPal would have a market cap of $63.51BN at 8% or a market cap of $56.46BN at an FCF yield of 9% respectively.</p><p>With 1.12BN shares outstanding, that would equate to a price of $56.26 and $50.00 at both an 8% and 9% FCF yield, at which price we believe would be the maximum pain. Let&#39;s say PayPal briefly crosses the 10% FCF yield threshold, like Meta, in times of extreme bearishness PayPal would trade at $45. While a $45 per share scenario represents a downside of 29.64%, it is necessary to highlight what a 10% cash flow return would express at that time. If free cash flow remains robust/flat, it would mean that PayPal could essentially use that 10% free cash flow to pay investors a 10% dividend yield or have the ability to buy out a large portion of the company with buybacks, retiring the weakest shareholders and boosting the stock price &amp; EPS.</p><p>Even now, with free cash flow of $5.08BN on a TTM basis, PayPal could buy up about half of its outstanding shares over the next 7 years if free cash flow remains stable.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d05ef4628582be959d56b4017bcecb7d\" alt=\"TIKR Terminal\" title=\"TIKR Terminal\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span>TIKR Terminal</span></p><p>That&#39;s also what they&#39;ve done recently. On a trailing 12-month basis, PayPal has bought back the most shares it has ever done since 2018. Right now, they are using most of the available free cash flow and rightfully returning as much as possible to shareholders, now between $4BN-$5BN per year in buybacks. We think this trend is likely to continue if PayPal remains as undervalued as we think it is now, boosting earnings per share and pushing shareholder returns upward.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2359ec4a635e167f8ece396f651768e4\" alt=\"TIKR Terminal\" title=\"TIKR Terminal\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span>TIKR Terminal</span></p><h2>An Updated Valuation</h2><p>Taking into account all the recent information from the above, we have also adjusted our valuation model to reflect these changes. In terms of revenue, PayPal has a few more years of high single-digit growth to go, after which we think growth will level off to inflation levels.</p><p>We think EBITDA margins will remain more or less in line with historical averages, with a very slight increase due to cost savings, reductions in R&amp;D due to reaching maturity and other positive developments mentioned in the last earnings call. One of these could be AI, which could help PayPal optimize loss prevention/fraud prevention and automate more tasks such as customer service. At 16x EV/EBITDA, we consider PayPal potentially worth north of $141.72.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3355f7de6ff3f9821ce839b92f84af0\" alt=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" title=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\"/><span>Author&#39;s Valuation Model</span></p><p>On a free cash flow basis, most remained unchanged, with FCFE expected to grow from $4.87 this year to $8.55 over the next 10 years. We applied a very conservative 6% yield on FCFE and arrive at a price per share of $142.44. Using a 50% weighting for both valuations, we arrive at a price target of $142.08.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d858918addf10a4b28ed93fc70493a\" alt=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" title=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\"/><span>Author&#39;s Valuation Model</span></p><p>However, if we plug this into an IRR calculator and take into account the strong free cash flows during the period, we think PayPal has a chance to return 18.63% of IRR over the next 10 years, which we think definitely makes it a &#34;Strong Buy.&#34;</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5671083857ea74e5a1b817f568476b22\" alt=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" title=\"Author&#39;s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"85\"/><span>Author&#39;s Valuation Model</span></p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>We think PayPal is in the same scanning scenario as Meta about a year ago, with the market blinded by temporary headwinds such as fear of competition and slower-growing revenue.</p><p>We also think Google Pay, Apple Pay, Stripe and other competitors that have been around for a while are not as big a threat as investors may think. Although competitive threats to PayPal have arguably increased, the company is still able to maintain stunning EBITDA margins, demonstrating their strong value proposition. We believe PayPal&#39;s values still stand because the company is too deeply entrenched in the payment provider industry from both a consumer and merchant perspective. As we see it, it may be a long time before merchants and customers stop using PayPal or taper out its use.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac6f9a94e2ece61386899850d575e89\" alt=\"TIKR Terminal\" title=\"TIKR Terminal\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span>TIKR Terminal</span></p><p>Thus, we expect the maximum downside for the company to be -30% to around $45, at an FCF yield of 10%, although we think this would be an extremely unlikely scenario. From a technical perspective as well, PayPal should have tremendous support at the $45 price level. On the upside, we think PayPal could yield an IRR of 18.63%, well above the historical market average, making the company a &#34;Strong Buy.&#34;</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Don't Fear Apple Pay And Stripe</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Don't Fear Apple Pay And Stripe\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-05 11:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4609213-paypal-dont-fear-apple-pay-stripe><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPayPal's fundamentals remain strong despite competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Stripe, as it continues to grow in transaction volume, customer numbers, and profits.The company's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4609213-paypal-dont-fear-apple-pay-stripe\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4609213-paypal-dont-fear-apple-pay-stripe","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2340029708","content_text":"SummaryPayPal's fundamentals remain strong despite competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Stripe, as it continues to grow in transaction volume, customer numbers, and profits.The company's dominant market share is due to its long-standing trust, ease of use, and compatibility with all devices and operating platforms.With a potential upside of 18.63% IRR over the next 10 years, PayPal is considered a \"Strong Buy\" despite temporary headwinds and competitive threats.Investment ThesisLet's face it: it has been a difficult year for PayPal, to say the least. Despite a strong start to the year, it is currently down 11.47% YTD, compared to the S&P 500 which is up 10.73%.Therefore, we will address the reasons why investors may be too bearish on PayPal, overestimating competitive threats and overstating temporary headwinds while the company is fully focused on returning capital to shareholders and maximizing PayPal's efficiency. We will quantify these risks, outline what an extreme downside scenario might look like and why we think the stock could generate investors more than an annual 18% IRR over the next 10 years.Data by YChartsQuantifying HeadwindsSince competition is top-of-mind when it comes to investors thinking about investing in PayPal, especially the growth of Apple Pay, we discuss our take on why the market may be too bearish on the company.That said, we currently note that other payment gateways such as Stripe, Shop Pay (SHOP), Google Pay (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Apple Pay (AAPL) are the main perceived threats to PayPal's business model. First, it is important to note that these payment method alternatives have not just been around since last year, either. Shopify Payments has been around since 2013, Google Pay for more than 5 years and Apple Pay since 2014. And yet, despite the growth of other payment providers, PayPal has continued to grow in transaction volume, customer numbers and profits.PayPal IRIn 2022, PayPal alone processed a staggering total payment volume of $1.36 trillion, rivaling the largest credit card providers such as Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), which have been around since the 1960s, and Amex (AXP), which was founded in the 1800s. On an annual basis, PayPal processed $1.42T in volume in the first quarter, and it is likely that this will continue even without user growth, as PayPal and the companies they represent are able to pass on the cost of inflation over time.A company in the payments industry that is still processing $1.42T in volume and growing also does not sound like a company on the verge of bankruptcy in our eyes. Apple Pay is reportedly already processing more than $6T in transactions per year, far outpacing PayPal and even Mastercard & Amex. We ask ourselves: why is it that PayPal's fundamentals have remained robust, while other players like Apple Pay have recently captured a huge market share?StatistaWe think PayPal's dominant market share is mostly due to the fact that people have trusted PayPal for more than 20 years and still find it the easiest, fastest and most versatile way to transfer money and make online purchases.Some will point to Apple Pay as a direct competitor to PayPal, but there are certainly differences between the two. First, Apple Pay operates within the Apple ecosystem and is a great way for Apple to protect its moat and provide more value to users of the Apple ecosystem. However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, Apple's global smartphone market share was 24.1%. Despite Apple Pay being a great service, retailers offering Apple Pay only target the population of people who have Apple products. Unlike PayPal, which works on all devices and operating platforms. Merchants using Apple Pay also still have to pay the overheads they have to pay to card operators such as Amex and Visa.We see Apple Pay as more of a competitor to Venmo, especially replacing cash/bank transfers between individuals. Venmo currently accounts for 18% of PayPal's revenue. Unless everyone switches to Apple, Apple Pay just isn't a universal payment method like PayPal is.PayPal IRAs we see it, customers will continue to use PayPal because it has always been a trusted payment method. Just as Amex, Visa and Mastercard are dominant, PayPal gets its advantage from being the payment processor that has been around the longest and has the largest network with the most businesses and customers using it.In other words, we do not believe that consumers already have a meaningful reason to stop using the service, nor does it seem likely that this will happen anytime soon in the future. If there were to be margin pressure at all, we believe it would come from the merchant side and not from the consumer side. However, we believe that margins will remain intact as long as merchants achieve significantly more conversions when they accept PayPal than without it. As it stands now, as shown in the statistics above, merchants who use PayPal typically see a 33% increase in completed checkouts compared to other card providers. PayPal also provides 20% more repeat buyers, and customers are more likely to buy because it only takes a few clicks.Even in the unlikely event that another excellent payment processor or revolutionary technology comes up to challenge PayPal, we think it may take quite a while for PayPal customers to switch/adapt to something else, especially in the older cohort of PayPal users who have sworn by its security and ease of use.PayPal IRIn a sense, we see PayPal in the same way as e-mail providers such as Gmail, which is the largest e-mail provider in the world. Why do users use Gmail? The answer probably lies in the fact that it is the most widely used, safe and secure e-mail provider which is free of charge.Are there better alternatives to Gmail? Perhaps there are. But what would be the motivation to change e-mail providers? After all, most people who use Gmail can use it for free, and switching providers would be a huge headache. Not to mention the need to change all the services/contacts still linked to your old e-mail provider. With PayPal, it is similar, as people usually have multiple subscriptions like Netflix, Uber Eats or a Lime/Bird scooter attached to an account that are automatically charged every month or when you use the service.PayPal has also recently begun to solidify its moat, by now accepting Apple Pay as part of its \"Complete Payments Solutions.\" Small businesses can now accept methods such as Apple Pay, Mastercard, Visa and others while still processing through PayPal, protecting their dominance against Stripe, Android and Apple Pay.Look Down, Not UpFrom a fundamental perspective, we are always looking for companies with a lot of downside protection and a margin of safety. The saying \"look down, not up\" still applies if you ask us. So we look at where PayPal might bottom out, and what a worst-case scenario would look like.Looking across the board at other major tech giants over the past 10 years and their Free Cash Flow yield over time, a few companies stand out. Apple, Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) all saw their FCF yield skyrocket during times of worry. With Meta, this was last year, when growth peaked and margins fell, and fears of competition from TikTok played a role. Apple and Microsoft, although extremely robust companies, at one point reached FCF yield of 11.75% and 8.10%, respectively. At Apple, this was likely due to concerns about demand in 2016, while Microsoft had similar concerns about future growth in the early 2010s.We think PayPal is a similar scenario to Meta, which we also gave a buy rating when it was trading at $114.5 or an FCF yield of about 8.5%. In the same article, we believed it was only a matter of time before the headwinds disappeared and management changed course, unlocking efficiencies. Now that the headwinds have dissipated, and the company announced \"the year of efficiency\", Meta is trading at an FCF yield of only 2.41% after its recovery.Data by YChartsBut it is also important to note that Meta shot even beyond 8.5% and even crossed the 10% FCF yield threshold. In recent history, most of these tech giants achieved FCF yield of 8-9% at most. If we did the same for PayPal, at an FCF yield of 8% on a TTM basis, PayPal would have a market cap of $63.51BN at 8% or a market cap of $56.46BN at an FCF yield of 9% respectively.With 1.12BN shares outstanding, that would equate to a price of $56.26 and $50.00 at both an 8% and 9% FCF yield, at which price we believe would be the maximum pain. Let's say PayPal briefly crosses the 10% FCF yield threshold, like Meta, in times of extreme bearishness PayPal would trade at $45. While a $45 per share scenario represents a downside of 29.64%, it is necessary to highlight what a 10% cash flow return would express at that time. If free cash flow remains robust/flat, it would mean that PayPal could essentially use that 10% free cash flow to pay investors a 10% dividend yield or have the ability to buy out a large portion of the company with buybacks, retiring the weakest shareholders and boosting the stock price & EPS.Even now, with free cash flow of $5.08BN on a TTM basis, PayPal could buy up about half of its outstanding shares over the next 7 years if free cash flow remains stable.TIKR TerminalThat's also what they've done recently. On a trailing 12-month basis, PayPal has bought back the most shares it has ever done since 2018. Right now, they are using most of the available free cash flow and rightfully returning as much as possible to shareholders, now between $4BN-$5BN per year in buybacks. We think this trend is likely to continue if PayPal remains as undervalued as we think it is now, boosting earnings per share and pushing shareholder returns upward.TIKR TerminalAn Updated ValuationTaking into account all the recent information from the above, we have also adjusted our valuation model to reflect these changes. In terms of revenue, PayPal has a few more years of high single-digit growth to go, after which we think growth will level off to inflation levels.We think EBITDA margins will remain more or less in line with historical averages, with a very slight increase due to cost savings, reductions in R&D due to reaching maturity and other positive developments mentioned in the last earnings call. One of these could be AI, which could help PayPal optimize loss prevention/fraud prevention and automate more tasks such as customer service. At 16x EV/EBITDA, we consider PayPal potentially worth north of $141.72.Author's Valuation ModelOn a free cash flow basis, most remained unchanged, with FCFE expected to grow from $4.87 this year to $8.55 over the next 10 years. We applied a very conservative 6% yield on FCFE and arrive at a price per share of $142.44. Using a 50% weighting for both valuations, we arrive at a price target of $142.08.Author's Valuation ModelHowever, if we plug this into an IRR calculator and take into account the strong free cash flows during the period, we think PayPal has a chance to return 18.63% of IRR over the next 10 years, which we think definitely makes it a \"Strong Buy.\"Author's Valuation ModelThe Bottom LineWe think PayPal is in the same scanning scenario as Meta about a year ago, with the market blinded by temporary headwinds such as fear of competition and slower-growing revenue.We also think Google Pay, Apple Pay, Stripe and other competitors that have been around for a while are not as big a threat as investors may think. Although competitive threats to PayPal have arguably increased, the company is still able to maintain stunning EBITDA margins, demonstrating their strong value proposition. We believe PayPal's values still stand because the company is too deeply entrenched in the payment provider industry from both a consumer and merchant perspective. As we see it, it may be a long time before merchants and customers stop using PayPal or taper out its use.TIKR TerminalThus, we expect the maximum downside for the company to be -30% to around $45, at an FCF yield of 10%, although we think this would be an extremely unlikely scenario. From a technical perspective as well, PayPal should have tremendous support at the $45 price level. On the upside, we think PayPal could yield an IRR of 18.63%, well above the historical market average, making the company a \"Strong Buy.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":216377545191592,"gmtCreate":1693826548890,"gmtModify":1693826553711,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","listText":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","text":"Dear writer, I hv noticed that so far, all your articles are extremely negative.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216377545191592","repostId":"2364379698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2364379698","pubTimestamp":1693840027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2364379698?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-04 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This May Be The Stock Market's Biggest Bull Trap In 23 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2364379698","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"S&P 500 rally likely to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy.Weaker job opening data and ADP job report sent rates down, but a strong job report and ISM data pushed rates","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>S&amp;P 500 rally likely to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy.</p></li><li><p>Weaker job opening data and ADP job report sent rates down, but a strong job report and ISM data pushed rates higher.</p></li><li><p>Higher rates, a stronger dollar and rising oil prices may create challenges for the stock market, leading to lower levels as financial conditions tighten.</p></li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) caught a bounce as rates fell and the dollar weakened to start last week. However, after a slew of economic data throughout the week, which was supportive of a higher for longer monetary policy to remain in place, the bear market rally will likely fade, sending the S&amp;P 500 lower to continue its August pullback and back to the 4,100 over the next couple of months.</p><p>The rally from mid-March to mid-July may be one of the most incredible bull traps since the 43% Nasdaq 100 surge in the summer of 2000. A trap driven by a fantasy narrative of inflation melting, allowing the Fed to cut rates and ease up on monetary policy as the US economy glides to a soft landing. While there may be some early signs that the economy may be starting to soften, it is still too strong and resilient and far from getting the Fed to change its projected restrictive monetary policy path.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5747a86a5db431515378a95b2e19082a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><h2 id=\"id_2178748733\">Rates</h2><p>Once again, the stock market thinks bad news is good news because traders can&#39;t help but think that the Fed will be coming to the stock market&#39;s rescue at the first sign of slowing growth. The &#34;bad news&#34; started on August 23, following weak preliminary PMI data points across Europe and the US, which sharply lower nominal rates.</p><p>Then, this past week, weaker Job opening data (JOLTS) and a weaker-than-expected ADP job report, despite massive upward revisions for July, sent rates down again. But Thursday, the as-expected core PCE data point and the hot PCE Core Services ex-housing data helped to see rates stabilize and then move higher on Friday following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll number and hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing report.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c191f00e1e7839d152d6372f5aa6aee8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>One can find evidence of some economic softening if one searches hard enough. However, the data remains robust and suggests that the market will likely continue the previous trend of pushing rates higher on the back of the yield curve and piling back into the dollar. After all, economic models such as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the Bloomberg Nowcast suggest that real GDP estimates for the third quarter hardly budged following the onslaught of data.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e395d5b3a4dd07d73bc7ef30abd74b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This would suggest that 10-year and 30-year rates continue to power higher and probably move back up to the upper end of the ranges set before the August 23 move lower and potentially higher.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdeade6b26d069be4edbc9b58a12fba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2 id=\"id_3998795560\">Dollar Impacts</h2><p>Additionally, the better-than-fear economic data will continue to support the dollar. The dollar index retraced all of its losses following the weaker-than-expected JOLTS data and moved back to its highs as of September 1. From a technical standpoint, the dollar index could push higher to around 106 in the short term and may eventually run to about 111. I discussed this in a recent TV interview on the FOX Business channel&#39;s Making Money with Charles Payne.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f77b12c94765ee730b0c7db04b5648\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p>Many investors fail to realize how important the dollar is to the stock market and what a strong dollar does to stock prices. It makes US exports less competitive abroad, weakening revenue and earnings growth. Additionally, it will tighten financial conditions, removing leverage from the system. With the addition of China, the sum of the balance sheet of the G5 central banks in dollar terms has been moving lower. Part of this move is due to the dollar strengthening. This liquidity is highly correlated with the S&amp;P 500 over time, making it extremely important, and the recent deviation is eye-popping.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcdaff35552e576c941b6d765b5c076d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This creates a problem for equities investors because big moves like those on August 29 give the impression that all is clear, and the worst of the August pullback is behind them. But in reality, the move higher in the S&amp;P 500 on Tuesday was driven by a weaker dollar and falling rates, coupled with a negative gamma regime in the equity market due to the positioning of the options market. The dynamics created a massive rally as dealer flows had to buy the index as it rose, and this rally is likely to unwind in the days to come.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04673824a79fd5ae029049153bb84401\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p>Gamma Labs</p><p>The complexity that may also be a significant factor is the recent surge in oil prices, which has risen to $86 per barrel, and means that CPI swaps are pushing up the inflation outlook for the next few months as gasoline prices rise.</p><p>Expectations for CPI in August have risen to 3.6%, September has increased to 3.4%, and October has grown to 3%. These don&#39;t sound like meaningful moves, given where inflation rates were last year at this time. However, these CPI expectations may only rise if oil prices continue to climb. The longer the headline stays above the Fed&#39;s 2% target, the longer the Fed will have to hold rates higher, with increasing risk of the Fed&#39;s needing to do more.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e372a232b60f80791d36dc58ba8ad4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2 id=\"id_3924595979\">Yes, Fundamentals Matter</h2><p>This will complicate things because almost the entire rally in the stock market has been driven by multiple expansion, and not due to improving fundamentals, as the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 has risen from around 18.1 on March 24 to approximately 20.8 as of September 1. If the index&#39;s multiple were to contract back to 18.1 times 2023 earnings estimates of $217.26, the index would be back to trading at 3,930.</p><p>This brings us back to the dollar because the move higher in the PE has been driven primarily by easing financial conditions, which directly ties to the dollar&#39;s weakening value. So, should the dollar continue to strengthen, this should lead to further multiple contraction. The stronger dollar could also lead to lower S&amp;P 500 earnings overall due to FX headwinds.</p><p>The combination of high rates and a stronger dollar, coupled with rising oil prices, is likely to make things difficult for the stock market for the balance of the year, as price retraces to lower levels, and financial conditions tighten, that likely lead to a revisit to 4,100 over the next couple of months, which could end up being more depending on where things stand after that, leaving bulls stunned to find out that fundamentals and macro trends actually do matter.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This May Be The Stock Market's Biggest Bull Trap In 23 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis May Be The Stock Market's Biggest Bull Trap In 23 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-04 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632794-stock-market-biggest-bull-trap-23-years><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 rally likely to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy.Weaker job opening data and ADP job report sent rates down, but a strong job report and ISM data pushed rates...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632794-stock-market-biggest-bull-trap-23-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632794-stock-market-biggest-bull-trap-23-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2364379698","content_text":"S&P 500 rally likely to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy.Weaker job opening data and ADP job report sent rates down, but a strong job report and ISM data pushed rates higher.Higher rates, a stronger dollar and rising oil prices may create challenges for the stock market, leading to lower levels as financial conditions tighten.The S&P 500 (SPX) caught a bounce as rates fell and the dollar weakened to start last week. However, after a slew of economic data throughout the week, which was supportive of a higher for longer monetary policy to remain in place, the bear market rally will likely fade, sending the S&P 500 lower to continue its August pullback and back to the 4,100 over the next couple of months.The rally from mid-March to mid-July may be one of the most incredible bull traps since the 43% Nasdaq 100 surge in the summer of 2000. A trap driven by a fantasy narrative of inflation melting, allowing the Fed to cut rates and ease up on monetary policy as the US economy glides to a soft landing. While there may be some early signs that the economy may be starting to soften, it is still too strong and resilient and far from getting the Fed to change its projected restrictive monetary policy path.TradingViewRatesOnce again, the stock market thinks bad news is good news because traders can't help but think that the Fed will be coming to the stock market's rescue at the first sign of slowing growth. The \"bad news\" started on August 23, following weak preliminary PMI data points across Europe and the US, which sharply lower nominal rates.Then, this past week, weaker Job opening data (JOLTS) and a weaker-than-expected ADP job report, despite massive upward revisions for July, sent rates down again. But Thursday, the as-expected core PCE data point and the hot PCE Core Services ex-housing data helped to see rates stabilize and then move higher on Friday following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll number and hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing report.BloombergOne can find evidence of some economic softening if one searches hard enough. However, the data remains robust and suggests that the market will likely continue the previous trend of pushing rates higher on the back of the yield curve and piling back into the dollar. After all, economic models such as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the Bloomberg Nowcast suggest that real GDP estimates for the third quarter hardly budged following the onslaught of data.BloombergThis would suggest that 10-year and 30-year rates continue to power higher and probably move back up to the upper end of the ranges set before the August 23 move lower and potentially higher.BloombergDollar ImpactsAdditionally, the better-than-fear economic data will continue to support the dollar. The dollar index retraced all of its losses following the weaker-than-expected JOLTS data and moved back to its highs as of September 1. From a technical standpoint, the dollar index could push higher to around 106 in the short term and may eventually run to about 111. I discussed this in a recent TV interview on the FOX Business channel's Making Money with Charles Payne.TradingViewMany investors fail to realize how important the dollar is to the stock market and what a strong dollar does to stock prices. It makes US exports less competitive abroad, weakening revenue and earnings growth. Additionally, it will tighten financial conditions, removing leverage from the system. With the addition of China, the sum of the balance sheet of the G5 central banks in dollar terms has been moving lower. Part of this move is due to the dollar strengthening. This liquidity is highly correlated with the S&P 500 over time, making it extremely important, and the recent deviation is eye-popping.BloombergThis creates a problem for equities investors because big moves like those on August 29 give the impression that all is clear, and the worst of the August pullback is behind them. But in reality, the move higher in the S&P 500 on Tuesday was driven by a weaker dollar and falling rates, coupled with a negative gamma regime in the equity market due to the positioning of the options market. The dynamics created a massive rally as dealer flows had to buy the index as it rose, and this rally is likely to unwind in the days to come.Gamma LabsThe complexity that may also be a significant factor is the recent surge in oil prices, which has risen to $86 per barrel, and means that CPI swaps are pushing up the inflation outlook for the next few months as gasoline prices rise.Expectations for CPI in August have risen to 3.6%, September has increased to 3.4%, and October has grown to 3%. These don't sound like meaningful moves, given where inflation rates were last year at this time. However, these CPI expectations may only rise if oil prices continue to climb. The longer the headline stays above the Fed's 2% target, the longer the Fed will have to hold rates higher, with increasing risk of the Fed's needing to do more.BloombergYes, Fundamentals MatterThis will complicate things because almost the entire rally in the stock market has been driven by multiple expansion, and not due to improving fundamentals, as the PE ratio of the S&P 500 has risen from around 18.1 on March 24 to approximately 20.8 as of September 1. If the index's multiple were to contract back to 18.1 times 2023 earnings estimates of $217.26, the index would be back to trading at 3,930.This brings us back to the dollar because the move higher in the PE has been driven primarily by easing financial conditions, which directly ties to the dollar's weakening value. So, should the dollar continue to strengthen, this should lead to further multiple contraction. The stronger dollar could also lead to lower S&P 500 earnings overall due to FX headwinds.The combination of high rates and a stronger dollar, coupled with rising oil prices, is likely to make things difficult for the stock market for the balance of the year, as price retraces to lower levels, and financial conditions tighten, that likely lead to a revisit to 4,100 over the next couple of months, which could end up being more depending on where things stand after that, leaving bulls stunned to find out that fundamentals and macro trends actually do matter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209706692722712,"gmtCreate":1692237867909,"gmtModify":1692237872877,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","listText":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","text":"Dear writer, did you yourself buy???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/209706692722712","repostId":"2359173728","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197832221515856,"gmtCreate":1689333057486,"gmtModify":1689333062210,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","listText":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","text":"Seeking alpha should publish the name of the author so that readers can differentiate what are the more trustworthy articles and those that are a waste of time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197832221515856","repostId":"2351051434","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2351051434","pubTimestamp":1689348364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2351051434?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-14 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Nearly Dead Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2351051434","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Ibrahim Akcengiz While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn&#39;t really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, and the market knows housing data mis-states CPI core inflation, yet the market still accepts the Fed hiking rates again in July. Regardless, the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) has already soared back near all-time highs, making small-cap stocks more appealing here.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a827c072df32eacfa82c20cb7a8448\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p>Source: Finviz</p><h2 id=\"id_3773606846\">Old Inflation Data Falling</h2><p>First, CPI remains at reported elevated levels due primarily to housing data that accounts for 30% of the index. The index printed the smallest one-month increase in inflation data since August 2021.</p><ul><li><p>CPI rose 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected, but more than the 0.1% increase in May.</p></li><li><p>CPI YoY rose 3.0% vs. +3.1% expected and 4.0% prior.</p></li><li><p>Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected and the 0.4% rise in May.</p></li><li><p>Core CPI YoY rose 4.8% vs. 5.0% expected and 5.3% prior.</p></li></ul><p>Both the headline and core CPI data continue to collapse. Consumer prices are falling from elevated levels, but the prices aren&#39;t falling fast enough for the Fed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739938a9eec5d268002c938a8a231d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p>Source: WSJ</p><p>Housing continues to be the major headwind, yet investors know housing isn&#39;t an issue for inflation any more outside of the equivalents rent number utilized by the Fed. The shelter portion of the report was up 0.4% in June from May and accounted for 70% of the hike in core CPI inflation.</p><p>Second, the encouraging Producer Price Index data from today is more promising in providing the Fed with a reason to continue pausing rate hikes. The June data was as follows:</p><ul><li><p>PPI crept up 0.1%, less than the 0.2% increase expected and compared with a 0.3% decline in May.</p></li><li><p>PPI YoY basis rose only 0.1%, less than the 0.5% rise expected, and cooler than the 1.1% increase in May.</p></li><li><p>Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also edged up 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% in May.</p></li><li><p>Core PPI YoY rose 2.4% vs. 2.8% expected and 2.8% prior.</p></li></ul><p>The core PPI favored by the Fed is already generally within the 2% target range of the Fed. Core PPI only rose at a 1.2% annualized rate in June and is only up 2.4% over the last year, with clear signs inflation threats for producers are over and will feed into CPI.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954197fa191aeb739d4dc7c1fd6f5bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>Source: Twitter - Carl Quintanilla</p><p>Any economist or investor should look at the above chart with knowledge of the lagging impact of prior Fed rate hikes of 500 basis points and realize inflation is under control.</p><h3 id=\"id_891224888\">Modern Inflation Data</h3><p>While both the CPI and PPI reports show positive trends for inflation rates decelerating, the Truflation data already has &#34;real&#34; CPI inflation at only 2.47%. The inflation report uses modern consumer and spending data sets to deliver verifiable daily inflation indexes using over 10 million data points.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbf5f0659ddae7447e364881a30e0042\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Source: Truflation</p><p>The crucial housing data is already trending down per Truflation. The modern inflation index has housing inflation down 0.7% versus mid-June, with a combination of owned dwellings and rented dwellings prices down 2.5% in the last quarter alone.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a062700bfaf759fda9aa58ede4356d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\"/></p><p>Source: Truflation</p><p>Historically, the market always thought the Fed had more data than the market, but investors should now realize these experts are mostly relying on outdated metrics like equivalents rent. The government officials are using data leading to inflation data lagging the real-time market numbers.</p><p>The signs inflation problems are coming to an end and rate hikes are over has the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) stocks rallying. The small-cap stocks have underperformed big returns in the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last year, providing a preference for the small-cap stocks into year-end.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43b2659c2bff80329dad2474f84c9b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><h2 id=\"id_319356813\">Takeaway</h2><p>The key investor takeaway in that the data using modern inflation data (and even PPI) show inflation is down to a point where the Fed wouldn&#39;t normally need to hike interest rates anymore. The Fed has already hiked rates 500 basis points, and the 6 to 12 month lag on rate hikes still haven&#39;t fully impacted economic data.</p><p>After a big rally in the major indexes of large cap stocks focused on the Magnificent Seven stocks, investors should have a preference for small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Nearly Dead Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Nearly Dead Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-14 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2351051434","content_text":"While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, and the market knows housing data mis-states CPI core inflation, yet the market still accepts the Fed hiking rates again in July. Regardless, the S&P 500 (SP500) has already soared back near all-time highs, making small-cap stocks more appealing here.Source: FinvizOld Inflation Data FallingFirst, CPI remains at reported elevated levels due primarily to housing data that accounts for 30% of the index. The index printed the smallest one-month increase in inflation data since August 2021.CPI rose 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected, but more than the 0.1% increase in May.CPI YoY rose 3.0% vs. +3.1% expected and 4.0% prior.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected and the 0.4% rise in May.Core CPI YoY rose 4.8% vs. 5.0% expected and 5.3% prior.Both the headline and core CPI data continue to collapse. Consumer prices are falling from elevated levels, but the prices aren't falling fast enough for the Fed.Source: WSJHousing continues to be the major headwind, yet investors know housing isn't an issue for inflation any more outside of the equivalents rent number utilized by the Fed. The shelter portion of the report was up 0.4% in June from May and accounted for 70% of the hike in core CPI inflation.Second, the encouraging Producer Price Index data from today is more promising in providing the Fed with a reason to continue pausing rate hikes. The June data was as follows:PPI crept up 0.1%, less than the 0.2% increase expected and compared with a 0.3% decline in May.PPI YoY basis rose only 0.1%, less than the 0.5% rise expected, and cooler than the 1.1% increase in May.Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also edged up 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% in May.Core PPI YoY rose 2.4% vs. 2.8% expected and 2.8% prior.The core PPI favored by the Fed is already generally within the 2% target range of the Fed. Core PPI only rose at a 1.2% annualized rate in June and is only up 2.4% over the last year, with clear signs inflation threats for producers are over and will feed into CPI.Source: Twitter - Carl QuintanillaAny economist or investor should look at the above chart with knowledge of the lagging impact of prior Fed rate hikes of 500 basis points and realize inflation is under control.Modern Inflation DataWhile both the CPI and PPI reports show positive trends for inflation rates decelerating, the Truflation data already has \"real\" CPI inflation at only 2.47%. The inflation report uses modern consumer and spending data sets to deliver verifiable daily inflation indexes using over 10 million data points.Source: TruflationThe crucial housing data is already trending down per Truflation. The modern inflation index has housing inflation down 0.7% versus mid-June, with a combination of owned dwellings and rented dwellings prices down 2.5% in the last quarter alone.Source: TruflationHistorically, the market always thought the Fed had more data than the market, but investors should now realize these experts are mostly relying on outdated metrics like equivalents rent. The government officials are using data leading to inflation data lagging the real-time market numbers.The signs inflation problems are coming to an end and rate hikes are over has the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) stocks rallying. The small-cap stocks have underperformed big returns in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last year, providing a preference for the small-cap stocks into year-end.Data by YChartsTakeawayThe key investor takeaway in that the data using modern inflation data (and even PPI) show inflation is down to a point where the Fed wouldn't normally need to hike interest rates anymore. The Fed has already hiked rates 500 basis points, and the 6 to 12 month lag on rate hikes still haven't fully impacted economic data.After a big rally in the major indexes of large cap stocks focused on the Magnificent Seven stocks, investors should have a preference for small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220524974116960,"gmtCreate":1694860502005,"gmtModify":1694860506144,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for Christmas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220524974116960","repostId":"2367285643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2367285643","pubTimestamp":1694826000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2367285643?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-16 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: What Are You Waiting For?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2367285643","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Palantir is one of the most unique monopolistic-style AI market-leading companies operating in a blue-ocean atmosphere globally. Moreover, Palantir is substantially under-appreciated by the market and could expand into one of the most dominant companies in the software space. Palantir - Harvard's Unicorn In 2015, Harvard wrote about Palantir, calling it the \"hottest unicorn you've never heard of.\" Fast forward eight years and just about everyone has heard of Palantir. The remarkable thing is that even back then, Palantir had a $20 billion valuation, servicing clients like the CIA, NSA, U.S. Army, and other essential government agencies.  In 2016, Palantir already had a firm seat at the big table. President-Elect Donald Trump met with the tech industry leaders at Trump Tower in New York. Seated around the table were tech visionary leaders like Larry Page, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Elon M","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir is a highly-polarizing battleground stock with significant growth potential.</p></li><li><p>Palantir is under-appreciated by the market, while it has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms.</p></li><li><p>The company is a market leader in AI technology and has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms.</p></li><li><p>Palantir recorded its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability and is experiencing increasing growth with international governments.</p></li><li><p>Palantir has significant growth and profitability potential and could reach a stock price of $50 in 1-3 years.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe8f8ec6642d7a06c08b20b944f9c65\" alt=\"Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\" title=\"Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is one of the most significant battleground stocks I&#39;ve encountered over my 20-plus year investment career. Either you love the company, or you hate it. Additionally, many market participants may need clarification about Palantir and what the company does. Many investors are on the sidelines and could join the party later when the stock is at a much higher price.</p><p>Palantir reminds me a lot of Tesla (TSLA). I went long Tesla&#39;s stock in 2013 and have been invested in one form or another ever since. Tesla was (arguably) the most significant battleground stock of all time, which I wrote about consistently over the last six years. I see many similarities between Tesla and Palantir. Both companies are market leaders at the cutting edge of their respective industries with remarkable growth potential ahead.</p><p>Also, many market participants believe these companies are overvalued and don&#39;t recognize the long-term revenue growth potential and profitability prospects for these firms. The primary difference is that Palantir may be where Tesla was about five years ago before its stock appreciated by nearly 2,000%.</p><p>I&#39;m not suggesting that Palantir will shoot up to <strong>$300</strong> anytime soon. Nevertheless, Palantir has much more potential than the market expects. Due to its leading position in AI and remarkable growth opportunities in its government and private sector, Palantir&#39;s stock could easily be around <strong>$50</strong> in 1-3 years and may go much higher afterward.</p><h2 id=\"id_1629837805\">So, what are you waiting for?</h2><p>Palantir is one of the most unique monopolistic-style AI market-leading companies operating in a blue-ocean atmosphere globally. Moreover, Palantir is substantially under-appreciated by the market and could expand into one of the most dominant companies in the software space.</p><h3 id=\"id_1885374083\">Palantir - Harvard&#39;s Unicorn</h3><p>In 2015, Harvard wrote about Palantir, calling it the &#34;hottest unicorn you&#39;ve never heard of.&#34; Fast forward eight years and just about everyone has heard of Palantir. The remarkable thing is that even back then, Palantir had a $20 billion valuation, servicing clients like the CIA, NSA, U.S. Army, and other essential government agencies.</p><p>In 2016, Palantir already had a firm seat at the big table. President-Elect Donald Trump met with the tech industry leaders at Trump <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a> in New York. Seated around the table were tech visionary leaders like Larry Page, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Peter Theil, and others. However, seated directly across from Mr. Trump was a relatively unknown 49-year-old Ph.D. named Alex Karp (Palantir&#39;s CEO).</p><p>Palantir was born in the wake of the 2001 terror attacks, was funded by a CIA venture arm, and initially enabled crucial U.S. intelligence agencies to combat terrorism and other threats. However, over time, Palantir has become far more than a U.S. government contractor, now working with other governments and establishing a firm foothold in the private sector. Furthermore, Palantir has established itself as a global leader in A.I. technology, implying its growth runway is vast and its profitability potential is massive.</p><h3 id=\"id_3421588916\">Palantir&#39;s Remarkable AI Potential</h3><p>Palantir&#39;s Gotham, Apollo, and Foundry programs already were market-leading software products before the company&#39;s substantial advancements in AI. Now, with the recent introduction of Palantir&#39;s artificial intelligence platform, &#34;AIP,&#34; users can leverage the power of AI to solve the most significant problems facing their enterprises. AIP offers capabilities powered by large language models (LLMs) to various applications. Moreover, customers don&#39;t need to change anything as Palantir&#39;s AIP seamlessly layers on top of its existing software programs.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s platforms are used throughout the public, private, and non-profit sectors. Palantir enables organizations to quickly implement solutions to the most challenging problems they face, allowing them to optimize operations, often leading to increased revenues and improved profitability.</p><h3 id=\"id_1294063085\">Some of Palantir&#39;s offerings include:</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Anti-money laundering</p></li><li><p>Applied customer intelligence</p></li><li><p>Artificial intelligence and machine learning</p></li><li><p>Consumer goods</p></li><li><p>Cryptocurrency</p></li><li><p>Data protection</p></li><li><p>Defense</p></li><li><p>Ecosystem</p></li><li><p>Edge AI</p></li><li><p>Energy</p></li><li><p>Federal health</p></li><li><p>Financial services</p></li><li><p>Hospital operations</p></li><li><p>Intelligence</p></li><li><p>And much more</p></li></ul><p>Palantir is not just another software company. As Harvard stated years ago, Palantir is a &#34;secretive unicorn.&#34; However, now Palantir is a monopoly operating in a blue ocean atmosphere with limitless potential. Its category-defining technology has enabled it to become a global leader in AI/ML platforms. Moreover, Palantir was ranked No. 1 in a worldwide artificial intelligence software study in market share and revenue. We&#39;re still in the early innings of the AI revolution, and Palantir should become one of the greatest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom in the coming years.</p><h3 id=\"id_2412212241\">The Results Speak For Themselves</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86135aec0c98220c345740f2e0ee9986\" alt=\"EPS growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" title=\"EPS growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\"/><span>EPS growth (static.seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>Palantir recorded its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Moreover, we see a massive improvement over the nine-cent loss we saw in the same quarter one year ago.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f1e2a39e994155d687c2985f9f0dfc\" alt=\"Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" title=\"Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>Palantir achieved 20% YoY U.S. commercial revenue growth and 10% U.S. government revenue growth. Also, we must consider that this significant growth occurs during a high-interest rate and low-growth economic environment, and sales growth should increase considerably once the transitory slowdown concludes.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7729ac9c304d0d4755322abc4cbef88\" alt=\"Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" title=\"Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>The remarkable factor is that while U.S. government growth increased by 10% from last year, total government growth came in at 15%. Therefore, Palantir is experiencing increasing growth with international governments, implying that international government growth should continue expanding, and revenue growth could increase.</p><p>Additionally, we&#39;re seeing lower growth in the international commercial segment. However, this phenomenon should be transitory and is likely correlated with slow global growth and relatively limited commercial exposure to Palantir platforms outside the U.S. Nonetheless, we should see a re-acceleration in international commercial development as the global economy improves and exposure to Palantir software solutions increases in commercial markets outside the U.S.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b8cb39ef534f68b76c545dee84d0eb\" alt=\"Customer count and billings (static.seekingalpha.com)\" title=\"Customer count and billings (static.seekingalpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\"/><span>Customer count and billings (static.seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>Despite Palantir&#39;s transitory slowdown in revenue growth, customer count increased by 38% YoY, and billings surged by 52% over the same quarter one year ago. Therefore, we should see a substantial acceleration in revenue growth in the coming years and future quarters. I expect Palantir&#39;s sales growth to return to 25%-30% as the company advances in future years.</p><h3 id=\"id_1736599882\">I&#39;m Not Worried About Dilution, And You Shouldn&#39;t Be</h3><p>Some market participants have expressed concern about dilution in Palantir&#39;s stock. However, this issue has been overblown and taken out of context. Due to SBC, Palantir&#39;s share count surged after going public. However, many companies experience a similar dynamic after their IPO. Share count has remained relatively steady for years, increasing by about 15% over the last two years. Moreover, SBC should continue to become less significant as Palantir grows revenues in the coming years. Furthermore, Palantir announced a $1 billion buyback program during its latest earnings report.</p><h3 id=\"id_3510517362\">The Stock Buyback is a Huge Plus for Shareholders</h3><p>Some market participants claim that the buyback is harmful and that a company focusing on growth should not buy back its stock. However, Palantir is different from your ordinary company, and the buyback is a massive vote of confidence by high-level management in Palantir. Palantir&#39;s leadership is highly confident in the company&#39;s future. Its stock price is still meager, as Palantir&#39;s high probability for considerable outperformance is not factored into its stock price at this stage. Furthermore, the buyback has nothing to do with Palantir&#39;s growth trajectory, as the company can continue expanding while buying back shares.</p><h3 id=\"id_1279975925\">Palantir - Bullish Technical Set-Up</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57afdaf982f6077a35c2318a90b3ce34\" alt=\"PLTR (StockCharts.com)\" title=\"PLTR (StockCharts.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\"/><span>PLTR (StockCharts.com)</span></p><p>Palantir&#39;s technical image is highly constructive here. We see a similar pattern in early 2023 before the massive run-up in Palantir&#39;s stock. Therefore, we could see another substantial rally toward the $20-25 range once the current pullback/consolidation phase ends. Palantir&#39;s stock got highly overbought as it surged from about $7 to $20, but we&#39;ve seen a constructive correction since then. We&#39;re seeing improving momentum, and the 50-day MA crossed decisively over the 200-day MA, a bullish long-term technical dynamic.</p><h2 id=\"id_2253273141\">The Market is Behind The Curve On Palantir</h2><h3 id=\"id_1815103307\">Revenues Should Top Estimates</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6d8bfd481ed31697da777dc44b8edb\" alt=\"Revenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)\" title=\"Revenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\"/><span>Revenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)</span></p><p>I rarely see the market so far behind the curve on a company, but a name that quickly comes to mind is Tesla. Tesla outperformed most revenue and EPS estimates as it transitioned into one of the most prominent global companies several years back. Palantir is in a similar spot as the market underestimates its future revenue growth. Instead of the projected 20% sales growth, Palantir could provide 25%-30% revenue growth as the global economy stabilizes and returns to growth. Palantir also should benefit significantly from a lower interest rate environment in the future, potentially delivering 30%-plus annual growth.</p><h3 id=\"id_688211846\">EPS Growth Should Exceed Expectations</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bee5ba0547bd74c2df8f4f3094dc798\" alt=\"EPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)\" title=\"EPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\"/><span>EPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)</span></p><p>We see a similar depressed EPS growth dynamic when considering consensus estimates for future years. Palantir is just starting to become profitable; its growth margin is 81%. Therefore, as Palantir&#39;s revenues increase more rapidly than expected, its profitability should expand faster than current EPS estimates imply. Instead of the anticipated 20%-30% EPS growth rate, we could see EPS expansion of around 35%-45% in future years. This dynamic of better-than-expected revenue growth and higher-than-anticipated EPS expansion should enable Palantir to maintain a relatively high forward P/E multiple of around 50-60, boosting its stock price much higher as we advance.</p><p><strong>Here&#39;s Where Palantir&#39;s Stock Could Be In Future Years</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2024</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2025</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2026</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2027</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2028</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2029</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2030</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Revenue Bs</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$3.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$4.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$5.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$7.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$12.8</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Revenue growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$0.33</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$0.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$0.67</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$0.95</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$1.32</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$1.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2.50</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Forward P/E</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Stock price</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$26</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$74</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$135</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$175</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>Source: The Financial Prophet</em></p><h2 id=\"id_2045590667\">Risks to Palantir</h2><p>Despite my bullish projections, Palantir faces several risks. The company may grow slower than my forecast suggests, and its profitability may be lower than expected. Also, unknown factors regarding the broader economy could impact Palantir&#39;s shares. Economic growth could be slower than expected, leading to lower sales growth for Palantir as we advance. Investors should investigate these and other risk factors before committing capital to an investment in Palantir.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: What Are You Waiting For?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: What Are You Waiting For?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-16 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635437-palantir-what-are-you-waiting-for><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir is a highly-polarizing battleground stock with significant growth potential.Palantir is under-appreciated by the market, while it has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635437-palantir-what-are-you-waiting-for\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4023":"应用软件","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635437-palantir-what-are-you-waiting-for","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2367285643","content_text":"Palantir is a highly-polarizing battleground stock with significant growth potential.Palantir is under-appreciated by the market, while it has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms.The company is a market leader in AI technology and has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms.Palantir recorded its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability and is experiencing increasing growth with international governments.Palantir has significant growth and profitability potential and could reach a stock price of $50 in 1-3 years.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images NewsPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) is one of the most significant battleground stocks I've encountered over my 20-plus year investment career. Either you love the company, or you hate it. Additionally, many market participants may need clarification about Palantir and what the company does. Many investors are on the sidelines and could join the party later when the stock is at a much higher price.Palantir reminds me a lot of Tesla (TSLA). I went long Tesla's stock in 2013 and have been invested in one form or another ever since. Tesla was (arguably) the most significant battleground stock of all time, which I wrote about consistently over the last six years. I see many similarities between Tesla and Palantir. Both companies are market leaders at the cutting edge of their respective industries with remarkable growth potential ahead.Also, many market participants believe these companies are overvalued and don't recognize the long-term revenue growth potential and profitability prospects for these firms. The primary difference is that Palantir may be where Tesla was about five years ago before its stock appreciated by nearly 2,000%.I'm not suggesting that Palantir will shoot up to $300 anytime soon. Nevertheless, Palantir has much more potential than the market expects. Due to its leading position in AI and remarkable growth opportunities in its government and private sector, Palantir's stock could easily be around $50 in 1-3 years and may go much higher afterward.So, what are you waiting for?Palantir is one of the most unique monopolistic-style AI market-leading companies operating in a blue-ocean atmosphere globally. Moreover, Palantir is substantially under-appreciated by the market and could expand into one of the most dominant companies in the software space.Palantir - Harvard's UnicornIn 2015, Harvard wrote about Palantir, calling it the \"hottest unicorn you've never heard of.\" Fast forward eight years and just about everyone has heard of Palantir. The remarkable thing is that even back then, Palantir had a $20 billion valuation, servicing clients like the CIA, NSA, U.S. Army, and other essential government agencies.In 2016, Palantir already had a firm seat at the big table. President-Elect Donald Trump met with the tech industry leaders at Trump Tower in New York. Seated around the table were tech visionary leaders like Larry Page, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Peter Theil, and others. However, seated directly across from Mr. Trump was a relatively unknown 49-year-old Ph.D. named Alex Karp (Palantir's CEO).Palantir was born in the wake of the 2001 terror attacks, was funded by a CIA venture arm, and initially enabled crucial U.S. intelligence agencies to combat terrorism and other threats. However, over time, Palantir has become far more than a U.S. government contractor, now working with other governments and establishing a firm foothold in the private sector. Furthermore, Palantir has established itself as a global leader in A.I. technology, implying its growth runway is vast and its profitability potential is massive.Palantir's Remarkable AI PotentialPalantir's Gotham, Apollo, and Foundry programs already were market-leading software products before the company's substantial advancements in AI. Now, with the recent introduction of Palantir's artificial intelligence platform, \"AIP,\" users can leverage the power of AI to solve the most significant problems facing their enterprises. AIP offers capabilities powered by large language models (LLMs) to various applications. Moreover, customers don't need to change anything as Palantir's AIP seamlessly layers on top of its existing software programs.Palantir's platforms are used throughout the public, private, and non-profit sectors. Palantir enables organizations to quickly implement solutions to the most challenging problems they face, allowing them to optimize operations, often leading to increased revenues and improved profitability.Some of Palantir's offerings include:Anti-money launderingApplied customer intelligenceArtificial intelligence and machine learningConsumer goodsCryptocurrencyData protectionDefenseEcosystemEdge AIEnergyFederal healthFinancial servicesHospital operationsIntelligenceAnd much morePalantir is not just another software company. As Harvard stated years ago, Palantir is a \"secretive unicorn.\" However, now Palantir is a monopoly operating in a blue ocean atmosphere with limitless potential. Its category-defining technology has enabled it to become a global leader in AI/ML platforms. Moreover, Palantir was ranked No. 1 in a worldwide artificial intelligence software study in market share and revenue. We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution, and Palantir should become one of the greatest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom in the coming years.The Results Speak For ThemselvesEPS growth (static.seekingalpha.com)Palantir recorded its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Moreover, we see a massive improvement over the nine-cent loss we saw in the same quarter one year ago.Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)Palantir achieved 20% YoY U.S. commercial revenue growth and 10% U.S. government revenue growth. Also, we must consider that this significant growth occurs during a high-interest rate and low-growth economic environment, and sales growth should increase considerably once the transitory slowdown concludes.Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)The remarkable factor is that while U.S. government growth increased by 10% from last year, total government growth came in at 15%. Therefore, Palantir is experiencing increasing growth with international governments, implying that international government growth should continue expanding, and revenue growth could increase.Additionally, we're seeing lower growth in the international commercial segment. However, this phenomenon should be transitory and is likely correlated with slow global growth and relatively limited commercial exposure to Palantir platforms outside the U.S. Nonetheless, we should see a re-acceleration in international commercial development as the global economy improves and exposure to Palantir software solutions increases in commercial markets outside the U.S.Customer count and billings (static.seekingalpha.com)Despite Palantir's transitory slowdown in revenue growth, customer count increased by 38% YoY, and billings surged by 52% over the same quarter one year ago. Therefore, we should see a substantial acceleration in revenue growth in the coming years and future quarters. I expect Palantir's sales growth to return to 25%-30% as the company advances in future years.I'm Not Worried About Dilution, And You Shouldn't BeSome market participants have expressed concern about dilution in Palantir's stock. However, this issue has been overblown and taken out of context. Due to SBC, Palantir's share count surged after going public. However, many companies experience a similar dynamic after their IPO. Share count has remained relatively steady for years, increasing by about 15% over the last two years. Moreover, SBC should continue to become less significant as Palantir grows revenues in the coming years. Furthermore, Palantir announced a $1 billion buyback program during its latest earnings report.The Stock Buyback is a Huge Plus for ShareholdersSome market participants claim that the buyback is harmful and that a company focusing on growth should not buy back its stock. However, Palantir is different from your ordinary company, and the buyback is a massive vote of confidence by high-level management in Palantir. Palantir's leadership is highly confident in the company's future. Its stock price is still meager, as Palantir's high probability for considerable outperformance is not factored into its stock price at this stage. Furthermore, the buyback has nothing to do with Palantir's growth trajectory, as the company can continue expanding while buying back shares.Palantir - Bullish Technical Set-UpPLTR (StockCharts.com)Palantir's technical image is highly constructive here. We see a similar pattern in early 2023 before the massive run-up in Palantir's stock. Therefore, we could see another substantial rally toward the $20-25 range once the current pullback/consolidation phase ends. Palantir's stock got highly overbought as it surged from about $7 to $20, but we've seen a constructive correction since then. We're seeing improving momentum, and the 50-day MA crossed decisively over the 200-day MA, a bullish long-term technical dynamic.The Market is Behind The Curve On PalantirRevenues Should Top EstimatesRevenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)I rarely see the market so far behind the curve on a company, but a name that quickly comes to mind is Tesla. Tesla outperformed most revenue and EPS estimates as it transitioned into one of the most prominent global companies several years back. Palantir is in a similar spot as the market underestimates its future revenue growth. Instead of the projected 20% sales growth, Palantir could provide 25%-30% revenue growth as the global economy stabilizes and returns to growth. Palantir also should benefit significantly from a lower interest rate environment in the future, potentially delivering 30%-plus annual growth.EPS Growth Should Exceed ExpectationsEPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)We see a similar depressed EPS growth dynamic when considering consensus estimates for future years. Palantir is just starting to become profitable; its growth margin is 81%. Therefore, as Palantir's revenues increase more rapidly than expected, its profitability should expand faster than current EPS estimates imply. Instead of the anticipated 20%-30% EPS growth rate, we could see EPS expansion of around 35%-45% in future years. This dynamic of better-than-expected revenue growth and higher-than-anticipated EPS expansion should enable Palantir to maintain a relatively high forward P/E multiple of around 50-60, boosting its stock price much higher as we advance.Here's Where Palantir's Stock Could Be In Future YearsYear2024202520262027202820292030Revenue Bs$2.85$3.6$4.62$5.96$7.75$10$12.8Revenue growth28%30%28%29%30%29%28%EPS$0.33$0.48$0.67$0.95$1.32$1.82$2.50EPS growth43%44%42%41%39%38%37%Forward P/E55575856575452Stock price$26$38$55$74$104$135$175Source: The Financial ProphetRisks to PalantirDespite my bullish projections, Palantir faces several risks. The company may grow slower than my forecast suggests, and its profitability may be lower than expected. Also, unknown factors regarding the broader economy could impact Palantir's shares. Economic growth could be slower than expected, leading to lower sales growth for Palantir as we advance. Investors should investigate these and other risk factors before committing capital to an investment in Palantir.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219466358464536,"gmtCreate":1694599881095,"gmtModify":1694599891947,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.&nbsp;","listText":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.&nbsp;","text":"can the writer pls leave your name. I seen conflicting articles on Microsoft from the same source which is investor place. It is very confusing if it is written by the same person.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219466358464536","repostId":"2366311286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190738238341344,"gmtCreate":1687592624370,"gmtModify":1687593908114,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","listText":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","text":"Usually the more you wait, you will see it go higher","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190738238341344","repostId":"2345721975","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2345721975","pubTimestamp":1687572343,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2345721975?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-24 10:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Hot Growth Stocks Investors Should Avoid","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345721975","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"With Tesla and Nvidia stock seeing triple-digit gains in the first half of 2023, investors should approach these names cautiously.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>This year&#39;s tech-led market rally is showing some signs of cooling. The tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> has declined nearly 1% since June 16. While it&#39;s debatable whether this signals that the Nasdaq Composite&#39;s strong momentum this year could take a breather for a while, one thing is likely: The index&#39;s 29% year-to-date rally has likely led to some stocks getting ahead of themselves.</p><p>There are certainly some Nasdaq-traded growth stocks looking stretched. Indeed, two of the most popular stocks of 2023 -- <strong>Tesla</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> -- may have risen to the point that it may be wise to avoid them.</p><p>Electric car maker Tesla and graphics chip maker Nvidia have seen their stocks soar about 113% and 195% year to date respectively, leaving their valuations appearing stretched. This has led analysts to share some words of caution regarding both stocks this week. It may be worth investors&#39; time to listen to what they have to say.</p><h2>Valuation matters</h2><p><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> analyst Adam Jonas said in a note to investors on Thursday morning that the market&#39;s rosy expectations, fueled by a growing appreciation for artificial intelligence (AI), have driven Tesla stock to levels that make it no longer attractive. However, the analyst doesn&#39;t think it&#39;s time to sell. He changed his rating on the stock from overweight to equal weight -- a rating that is similar to a hold rating.</p><p>This followed <strong>Barclays</strong> analyst Dan Levy&#39;s move on Wednesday to downgrade Tesla stock from buy to hold. Despite increasing his 12-month price target from $220 to $260, the stock&#39;s strong appreciation this year still makes shares a hold instead of a buy at their current level, Levy argues.</p><p>Noting that Tesla has had to cut prices of its vehicles this year to drive its sales growth, Levy believes the market&#39;s bullish view for the stock may risk underappreciating the company&#39;s near-term challenges. Like Jonas, Levy also thinks the market&#39;s optimism for AI has become too exuberant. Sure, recent progress in artificial intelligence may increase the odds of Tesla rolling out autonomous driving technology in the coming years. But the market&#39;s optimism about this side of the automaker&#39;s business may simply be too great.</p><p>Regarding Nvidia, Lynx analysts KC Rajkumar and Jahanara Nissar said they think the market&#39;s expectations for data center sales next year are far too high. The market&#39;s euphoric expectations for AI&#39;s effect on companies like Nvidia have made them bearish on the stock.</p><h2>It&#39;s OK to watch from the sidelines</h2><p>Investors should tread carefully when it comes to the difference between appreciating a powerful tailwind like AI and becoming overly optimistic about it. Investors should carefully consider both the positive effects of AI and the risks of market expectations becoming too high. Given Tesla and Nvidia stocks&#39; sky-high valuations, the risks for investors are particularly high over the long term. It&#39;s extremely difficult to predict technological winners, let alone how that technology will translate to profits over the long haul.</p><p>Fortunately, investors don&#39;t have to invest in the most hyped stocks of 2023. With Tesla and Nvidia boasting market caps of about $830 billion and $1.1 trillion and their price-to-earnings ratios sitting at 75 and 223, respectively, these stocks may be priced for perfection. With valuations like this, it may be a good time for investors to fish elsewhere, looking for underappreciated and overlooked investments instead.</p><p>Remember: It&#39;s OK to watch from the sidelines. When valuations of particular stocks become questionable, there&#39;s no reason investors should feel like they have to participate.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Hot Growth Stocks Investors Should Avoid</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Hot Growth Stocks Investors Should Avoid\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-24 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/2-hot-growth-stocks-investors-should-avoid/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This year's tech-led market rally is showing some signs of cooling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has declined nearly 1% since June 16. While it's debatable whether this signals that the Nasdaq ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/2-hot-growth-stocks-investors-should-avoid/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/2-hot-growth-stocks-investors-should-avoid/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345721975","content_text":"This year's tech-led market rally is showing some signs of cooling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has declined nearly 1% since June 16. While it's debatable whether this signals that the Nasdaq Composite's strong momentum this year could take a breather for a while, one thing is likely: The index's 29% year-to-date rally has likely led to some stocks getting ahead of themselves.There are certainly some Nasdaq-traded growth stocks looking stretched. Indeed, two of the most popular stocks of 2023 -- Tesla and Nvidia -- may have risen to the point that it may be wise to avoid them.Electric car maker Tesla and graphics chip maker Nvidia have seen their stocks soar about 113% and 195% year to date respectively, leaving their valuations appearing stretched. This has led analysts to share some words of caution regarding both stocks this week. It may be worth investors' time to listen to what they have to say.Valuation mattersMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a note to investors on Thursday morning that the market's rosy expectations, fueled by a growing appreciation for artificial intelligence (AI), have driven Tesla stock to levels that make it no longer attractive. However, the analyst doesn't think it's time to sell. He changed his rating on the stock from overweight to equal weight -- a rating that is similar to a hold rating.This followed Barclays analyst Dan Levy's move on Wednesday to downgrade Tesla stock from buy to hold. Despite increasing his 12-month price target from $220 to $260, the stock's strong appreciation this year still makes shares a hold instead of a buy at their current level, Levy argues.Noting that Tesla has had to cut prices of its vehicles this year to drive its sales growth, Levy believes the market's bullish view for the stock may risk underappreciating the company's near-term challenges. Like Jonas, Levy also thinks the market's optimism for AI has become too exuberant. Sure, recent progress in artificial intelligence may increase the odds of Tesla rolling out autonomous driving technology in the coming years. But the market's optimism about this side of the automaker's business may simply be too great.Regarding Nvidia, Lynx analysts KC Rajkumar and Jahanara Nissar said they think the market's expectations for data center sales next year are far too high. The market's euphoric expectations for AI's effect on companies like Nvidia have made them bearish on the stock.It's OK to watch from the sidelinesInvestors should tread carefully when it comes to the difference between appreciating a powerful tailwind like AI and becoming overly optimistic about it. Investors should carefully consider both the positive effects of AI and the risks of market expectations becoming too high. Given Tesla and Nvidia stocks' sky-high valuations, the risks for investors are particularly high over the long term. It's extremely difficult to predict technological winners, let alone how that technology will translate to profits over the long haul.Fortunately, investors don't have to invest in the most hyped stocks of 2023. With Tesla and Nvidia boasting market caps of about $830 billion and $1.1 trillion and their price-to-earnings ratios sitting at 75 and 223, respectively, these stocks may be priced for perfection. With valuations like this, it may be a good time for investors to fish elsewhere, looking for underappreciated and overlooked investments instead.Remember: It's OK to watch from the sidelines. When valuations of particular stocks become questionable, there's no reason investors should feel like they have to participate.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":241711053193304,"gmtCreate":1700036295645,"gmtModify":1700036298944,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a> Bearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a> Bearish","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ Bearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241711053193304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221163205767216,"gmtCreate":1695016318046,"gmtModify":1695016322341,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","listText":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","text":"Dear sir, all your articles are extremely negative. What is your purpose???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/221163205767216","repostId":"2368989014","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":200226579378416,"gmtCreate":1689917816847,"gmtModify":1689917821012,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought&nbsp;","listText":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought&nbsp;","text":"If you only consider the risk, then there is no stock that can be bought","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/200226579378416","repostId":"2352041065","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2352041065","pubTimestamp":1689902700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2352041065?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-21 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: AWS Is Rolling Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2352041065","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAWS's moat appears to be coming under pressure with declining margins and market share.Meanwhile, Amazon's e-commerce business is extremely capital-intensive and isn't what Warren Buffett would","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3857973660\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>AWS&#39;s moat appears to be coming under pressure with declining margins and market share.</p></li><li><p>Meanwhile, Amazon&#39;s e-commerce business is extremely capital-intensive and isn&#39;t what Warren Buffett would call a &#34;wonderful business.&#34;</p></li><li><p>I&#39;ll explain why growth may disappoint.</p></li><li><p>At a normalized PE ratio of 56x, I think Amazon is about to roll over ~ Sell the rally.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63353963b0650d6e0aa3d29abc759cc2\" alt=\"Alex Wong/Getty Images News\" title=\"Alex Wong/Getty Images News\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"531\"/><span>Alex Wong/Getty Images News</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2428538841\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The Thesis</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#39;ve covered Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) twice before, first recommending a &#34;Sell&#34; in mid-2022, then upgrading to a &#34;Hold&#34; at the end of last year. Amazon&#39;s since rallied 45%, but I think it&#39;s about to roll over again. Let me explain why.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159847e5286f7e5bf36d5a0a4e1fb58f\" alt=\"Author&#39;s AMZN Rating History (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Author&#39;s AMZN Rating History (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"/><span>Author&#39;s AMZN Rating History (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2848980801\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon&#39;s Businesses Are Rolling Over</h2><h4 id=\"id_1138416373\" style=\"text-align: left;\">E-Commerce</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon&#39;s flagship E-Commerce business has had its fair share of struggles. Amazon made the mistake of over-investing in e-commerce warehouses and delivery vans during the abnormal lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. Next, Amazon compounded the issue by spending tons of money on depreciating movies and TV shows.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Thus, depreciation expense has outgrown revenues drastically:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/948c230f0d785a9393d241e8b22e6463\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">When the lockdowns eased, Amazon was &#34;swimming naked&#34; as it ran into the brick wall of inflation in 2022. Seeing wages skyrocket for its 1.5 million employees, Amazon started losing money on its e-commerce business:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0eb5c7d391595a507da676a712944536\" alt=\"Amazon&#39;s E-Commerce Operating Margins (Author)\" title=\"Amazon&#39;s E-Commerce Operating Margins (Author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/><span>Amazon&#39;s E-Commerce Operating Margins (Author)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wages tend not to go down and stay down, nor do depreciation costs, which Amazon accounts for on a straight-line basis. So, the argument for huge margin expansion looks somewhat weak.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Also keep in mind that tons of retailers now have a direct-to-consumer business, such as Nike (NKE) and American Eagle (AEO). This is just scratching the surface. So, consumers no longer have to buy everything e-commerce on Amazon.com; they can just go on Nike&#39;s website to buy their next pair of sneakers or branded hoodie.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I think Amazon.com was at the peak of its power back in 2020, and there may be no going back. I recently asked my fiancee what she would do if Amazon raised its Prime membership fee by 50%, and without hesitation, she said she&#39;d cancel it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad4d243b5edf29e1fcd5c3f93ff0ada5\" alt=\"Amazon&#39;s Q1 2023 Revenue Breakdown (Statista)\" title=\"Amazon&#39;s Q1 2023 Revenue Breakdown (Statista)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span>Amazon&#39;s Q1 2023 Revenue Breakdown (Statista)</span></p><h4 id=\"id_4213318177\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Not A &#34;Wonderful Business&#34;</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\">All that said, Amazon is trying to push advertising and other income streams, so it&#39;s not that I think Amazon&#39;s North American and International e-commerce segments won&#39;t grow at all. It&#39;s just that I think they are capital-intensive, low margin businesses (Not what Warren Buffett would call a wonderful business). For example, Amazon had $187 billion of property, plant and equipment on its balance sheet at the end of 2022. All of this shareholder capital is sitting there and earning next to no money. Free cash flow is negative, net income is minuscule, and debt is soaring higher:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6367a5ce4bfbfced7044ac9b4af53188\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This isn&#39;t what you like to see. Amazon&#39;s $141 billion long-term debt and capital lease obligation is enormous, especially compared to its falling profitability.</p><h4 id=\"id_1569079754\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Cloud</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moving on to cloud, operating margins are rolling over. Amazon&#39;s CEO has cited slowing demand. But I&#39;m seeing increasing competition as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/498b2632f1238ec1b7ac89b438aa5e4d\" alt=\"AWS Cloud Operating Margins (Author)\" title=\"AWS Cloud Operating Margins (Author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"/><span>AWS Cloud Operating Margins (Author)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon&#39;s cloud business hasn&#39;t gained an inch of market share over the past five years, meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) continue to gain ground:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c29a7eeeb335c462ac2dbd4e13930785\" alt=\"Global Cloud Market Share (Synergy Research Group)\" title=\"Global Cloud Market Share (Synergy Research Group)\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>Global Cloud Market Share (Synergy Research Group)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Are Amazon&#39;s cloud margins falling because of slowing demand, or is Amazon lowering prices to stop losing market share (Which has been falling for the past three quarters)? I lean towards the latter.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moreover, I think AWS&#39;s long-term moat (A.K.A. durable competitive advantage) in cloud be somewhat fickle. I would compare cloud computing to the semiconductor industry where you can have an advantage due to scale, offerings, technology, and brand, but these advantages can fade over the years as we&#39;ve seen with the once great Intel (INTC), which has been displaced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) and others. So, I cannot say if AWS will enjoy the same dominant position in 10, 20, or 30 years.</p><h2 id=\"id_3093333052\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Normalized Earnings</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I still believe Amazon is under-earning on a net income and free cash flow basis. If we assume Amazon&#39;s e-commerce business (Segments ~ North America and International) returns to a 2% operating margin and that AWS can maintain its 24% operating margin, then Amazon would likely make $24.8 billion:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>E-Commerce Operating Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>$8.7 Billion</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>AWS Operating Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>$21.1 Billion</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><em>Interest Expense (Net)</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><em>($1.4 Billion)</em></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><strong>Earnings Before Income Tax</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><strong>$28.4 Billion</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><em>Income Tax Expense</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><em>($3.6 Billion)</em></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><strong>Normalized Net Income</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p><strong>$24.8 Billion</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Note: This estimate excludes the effects of equity investments and foreign currency gains/losses, giving Amazon a normalized PE ratio of 56x.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Turning over to Amazon&#39;s operating cash flow, readers should understand that Amazon has $21 Billion of stock-based compensation. This makes operating cash flow a poor metric because it doesn&#39;t account for the huge dilutive effects of this figure. Owners of Amazon stock are continually seeing their per-share ownership decline:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5168afbb811afb711e75a9613269d81e\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2452094190\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon&#39;s Stock Could Roll Over</h2><h4 id=\"id_39016528\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Growth May Disappoint</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon is a terribly capital-intensive business, trading at 56x normalized earnings. Looking at Amazon&#39;s core businesses, growth may disappoint. For example, Grand View Research has the global cloud computing market growing at 14% per annum through to 2030. AWS&#39;s market share isn&#39;t growing, and the company is concentrated in North America where cloud computing has been widely adopted, and companies are actually trimming back their cloud spend. So, I think AWS will actually grow slower than 14% per annum over the next ten years. Amazon&#39;s also reached North American concentration in e-commerce, so future growth may depend on the company&#39;s ability to increase ad spend on its platforms and raise Prime membership prices. Of course, Amazon is expanding into India and other markets, but its International business actually saw an 8% decline in revenue from 2021 to 2022. Also, I expect Amazon&#39;s effective tax rates to increase over the next ten years alongside other American firms. Combine all of this, and I see Amazon growing normalized earnings at just 13% per annum.</p><h4 id=\"id_3733706909\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Long-Term Returns</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\">My 2033 price target for Amazon is $155, implying returns of just 1.5% per annum:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Normalized EPS (Diluted)</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>$2.40</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Compound Annual Growth Rate</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>13%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Year 10 EPS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>$8.15</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Terminal Multiple</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>19x</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Year 10 Share Price</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>$155</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>Compound Annual Returns</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:top;\"><p>1.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Note: This is a base-case estimate. The compound annual growth rate is for dividends and earnings. The terminal multiple assumes an interest rate of 5% in 2033 (A reversion to the 5000 year mean). It also assumes a growth rate of 8% between 2033-2043, and accounts for the small probability that the business fails.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Given that I do not believe investors are being paid here to hold Amazon, with the 2-year treasury yielding 4.75% vs. Amazon&#39;s prospective returns of 1.5% and a potential recession in North America looming, I am downgrading Amazon to a &#34;Strong Sell.&#34; AMZN could be about to roll over.</p><h2 id=\"id_279212440\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Thesis Risk</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is a wide range of outcomes for Amazon&#39;s stock. My base-case factors in both the chance that Amazon loses substantial cloud computing market share, as well as the chance that Amazon&#39;s margins surprise to the upside in e-commerce and cloud. Also, Amazon&#39;s CEO said the company is working on AI chips but that they are competitive on a combination of price and performance (In other words, performance is lagging competitors). Anyway, there is a chance that some of Amazon&#39;s investments pay off. There&#39;s also a chance others lose big. Perhaps Amazon can increase e-commerce margins further than I expect if they effectively use AI to recommend products and integrate ads. But, this is being hindered by ongoing data privacy changes and regulation. Also, maybe the vast use of AI autonomous vehicles will reduce expenses and make Amazon&#39;s shipping vastly more efficient 5-10 years out. This is the wide range of outcomes factored into my long-term returns estimate.</p><h2 id=\"id_2395647617\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The Bottom Line</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon is doing great things, but it is also engaging in extremely capital-intensive things. At a normalized PE of 56x, I think now is a dangerous time to bet on massive margin expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon&#39;s growth may disappoint. It seems the company has reached e-commerce and cloud concentration in North America. AWS&#39;s cloud market share and margins are falling. Moreover, Amazon&#39;s e-commerce business is not what Warren Buffett would call a &#34;wonderful business,&#34; with negative free cash flow and skyrocketing debt. Competition is heating up in direct-to-consumer and in cloud computing. Looking at my 1.5% prospective returns for Amazon vs. 4.75% on the two-year treasury, I think it&#39;s time to get out. Thus, I&#39;ve downgraded Amazon from a &#34;Hold&#34; to a &#34;Strong Sell.&#34; Whether you agree or disagree, I hope I shed light on the key issues surrounding Amazon.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Until next time, happy investing!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: AWS Is Rolling Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: AWS Is Rolling Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-21 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618407-amazon-aws-rolling-over><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAWS's moat appears to be coming under pressure with declining margins and market share.Meanwhile, Amazon's e-commerce business is extremely capital-intensive and isn't what Warren Buffett would...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618407-amazon-aws-rolling-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618407-amazon-aws-rolling-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2352041065","content_text":"SummaryAWS's moat appears to be coming under pressure with declining margins and market share.Meanwhile, Amazon's e-commerce business is extremely capital-intensive and isn't what Warren Buffett would call a \"wonderful business.\"I'll explain why growth may disappoint.At a normalized PE ratio of 56x, I think Amazon is about to roll over ~ Sell the rally.Alex Wong/Getty Images NewsThe ThesisI've covered Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) twice before, first recommending a \"Sell\" in mid-2022, then upgrading to a \"Hold\" at the end of last year. Amazon's since rallied 45%, but I think it's about to roll over again. Let me explain why.Author's AMZN Rating History (Seeking Alpha)Amazon's Businesses Are Rolling OverE-CommerceAmazon's flagship E-Commerce business has had its fair share of struggles. Amazon made the mistake of over-investing in e-commerce warehouses and delivery vans during the abnormal lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. Next, Amazon compounded the issue by spending tons of money on depreciating movies and TV shows.Thus, depreciation expense has outgrown revenues drastically:Data by YChartsWhen the lockdowns eased, Amazon was \"swimming naked\" as it ran into the brick wall of inflation in 2022. Seeing wages skyrocket for its 1.5 million employees, Amazon started losing money on its e-commerce business:Amazon's E-Commerce Operating Margins (Author)Wages tend not to go down and stay down, nor do depreciation costs, which Amazon accounts for on a straight-line basis. So, the argument for huge margin expansion looks somewhat weak.Also keep in mind that tons of retailers now have a direct-to-consumer business, such as Nike (NKE) and American Eagle (AEO). This is just scratching the surface. So, consumers no longer have to buy everything e-commerce on Amazon.com; they can just go on Nike's website to buy their next pair of sneakers or branded hoodie.I think Amazon.com was at the peak of its power back in 2020, and there may be no going back. I recently asked my fiancee what she would do if Amazon raised its Prime membership fee by 50%, and without hesitation, she said she'd cancel it.Amazon's Q1 2023 Revenue Breakdown (Statista)Not A \"Wonderful Business\"All that said, Amazon is trying to push advertising and other income streams, so it's not that I think Amazon's North American and International e-commerce segments won't grow at all. It's just that I think they are capital-intensive, low margin businesses (Not what Warren Buffett would call a wonderful business). For example, Amazon had $187 billion of property, plant and equipment on its balance sheet at the end of 2022. All of this shareholder capital is sitting there and earning next to no money. Free cash flow is negative, net income is minuscule, and debt is soaring higher:Data by YChartsThis isn't what you like to see. Amazon's $141 billion long-term debt and capital lease obligation is enormous, especially compared to its falling profitability.CloudMoving on to cloud, operating margins are rolling over. Amazon's CEO has cited slowing demand. But I'm seeing increasing competition as well.AWS Cloud Operating Margins (Author)Amazon's cloud business hasn't gained an inch of market share over the past five years, meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) continue to gain ground:Global Cloud Market Share (Synergy Research Group)Are Amazon's cloud margins falling because of slowing demand, or is Amazon lowering prices to stop losing market share (Which has been falling for the past three quarters)? I lean towards the latter.Moreover, I think AWS's long-term moat (A.K.A. durable competitive advantage) in cloud be somewhat fickle. I would compare cloud computing to the semiconductor industry where you can have an advantage due to scale, offerings, technology, and brand, but these advantages can fade over the years as we've seen with the once great Intel (INTC), which has been displaced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) and others. So, I cannot say if AWS will enjoy the same dominant position in 10, 20, or 30 years.Normalized EarningsI still believe Amazon is under-earning on a net income and free cash flow basis. If we assume Amazon's e-commerce business (Segments ~ North America and International) returns to a 2% operating margin and that AWS can maintain its 24% operating margin, then Amazon would likely make $24.8 billion:E-Commerce Operating Income$8.7 BillionAWS Operating Income$21.1 BillionInterest Expense (Net)($1.4 Billion)Earnings Before Income Tax$28.4 BillionIncome Tax Expense($3.6 Billion)Normalized Net Income$24.8 BillionNote: This estimate excludes the effects of equity investments and foreign currency gains/losses, giving Amazon a normalized PE ratio of 56x.Turning over to Amazon's operating cash flow, readers should understand that Amazon has $21 Billion of stock-based compensation. This makes operating cash flow a poor metric because it doesn't account for the huge dilutive effects of this figure. Owners of Amazon stock are continually seeing their per-share ownership decline:Data by YChartsAmazon's Stock Could Roll OverGrowth May DisappointAmazon is a terribly capital-intensive business, trading at 56x normalized earnings. Looking at Amazon's core businesses, growth may disappoint. For example, Grand View Research has the global cloud computing market growing at 14% per annum through to 2030. AWS's market share isn't growing, and the company is concentrated in North America where cloud computing has been widely adopted, and companies are actually trimming back their cloud spend. So, I think AWS will actually grow slower than 14% per annum over the next ten years. Amazon's also reached North American concentration in e-commerce, so future growth may depend on the company's ability to increase ad spend on its platforms and raise Prime membership prices. Of course, Amazon is expanding into India and other markets, but its International business actually saw an 8% decline in revenue from 2021 to 2022. Also, I expect Amazon's effective tax rates to increase over the next ten years alongside other American firms. Combine all of this, and I see Amazon growing normalized earnings at just 13% per annum.Long-Term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Amazon is $155, implying returns of just 1.5% per annum:Normalized EPS (Diluted)$2.40Compound Annual Growth Rate13%Year 10 EPS$8.15Terminal Multiple19xYear 10 Share Price$155Compound Annual Returns1.5%Note: This is a base-case estimate. The compound annual growth rate is for dividends and earnings. The terminal multiple assumes an interest rate of 5% in 2033 (A reversion to the 5000 year mean). It also assumes a growth rate of 8% between 2033-2043, and accounts for the small probability that the business fails.Given that I do not believe investors are being paid here to hold Amazon, with the 2-year treasury yielding 4.75% vs. Amazon's prospective returns of 1.5% and a potential recession in North America looming, I am downgrading Amazon to a \"Strong Sell.\" AMZN could be about to roll over.Thesis RiskThere is a wide range of outcomes for Amazon's stock. My base-case factors in both the chance that Amazon loses substantial cloud computing market share, as well as the chance that Amazon's margins surprise to the upside in e-commerce and cloud. Also, Amazon's CEO said the company is working on AI chips but that they are competitive on a combination of price and performance (In other words, performance is lagging competitors). Anyway, there is a chance that some of Amazon's investments pay off. There's also a chance others lose big. Perhaps Amazon can increase e-commerce margins further than I expect if they effectively use AI to recommend products and integrate ads. But, this is being hindered by ongoing data privacy changes and regulation. Also, maybe the vast use of AI autonomous vehicles will reduce expenses and make Amazon's shipping vastly more efficient 5-10 years out. This is the wide range of outcomes factored into my long-term returns estimate.The Bottom LineAmazon is doing great things, but it is also engaging in extremely capital-intensive things. At a normalized PE of 56x, I think now is a dangerous time to bet on massive margin expansion.Amazon's growth may disappoint. It seems the company has reached e-commerce and cloud concentration in North America. AWS's cloud market share and margins are falling. Moreover, Amazon's e-commerce business is not what Warren Buffett would call a \"wonderful business,\" with negative free cash flow and skyrocketing debt. Competition is heating up in direct-to-consumer and in cloud computing. Looking at my 1.5% prospective returns for Amazon vs. 4.75% on the two-year treasury, I think it's time to get out. Thus, I've downgraded Amazon from a \"Hold\" to a \"Strong Sell.\" Whether you agree or disagree, I hope I shed light on the key issues surrounding Amazon.Until next time, happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244251025100800,"gmtCreate":1700655628645,"gmtModify":1700655633343,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did you actually buy the share ??????","listText":"Did you actually buy the share ??????","text":"Did you actually buy the share ??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244251025100800","repostId":"2385524523","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2385524523","pubTimestamp":1700634600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2385524523?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-22 14:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2385524523","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is offs","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sea&#39;s stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company&#39;s future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s softer gaming revenue is offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division and cost discipline measures.</p></li><li><p>Live streaming has helped the company to drive e-commerce bookings growth and secure market share gains.</p></li><li><p>The company is also noting outsized performance in Brazil, demonstrating that Sea has a future beyond Asia.</p></li></ul><p>A fresh bull market is well underway, with investors shrugging off the threat of inflation and cheering the end of rate hikes. Growth stocks are hot again, with very few exceptions - and among them is Sea (NYSE:SE), the self-dubbed &#34;Amazon of Southeast Asia.&#34;</p><p>This one-time market darling has seen its share price crater by nearly 30% this year, owing to one thing: a slowdown in its gaming division, which has been its cash cow for years as the company was ramping its e-commerce and digital financial services segments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738385a6575d7dcc23ce1073a428b57e\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I last covered Sea in July, when the stock was trading closer to $55 per share. Since then, the stock has fallen by a fresh ~30%, driven by a poorly received third-quarter earnings print. And while I&#39;m certainly not cheering the company&#39;s third-quarter results and the hole in my portfolio has been painful to bear, I&#39;m <strong>renewing my bullish call on Sea</strong> and using the dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p>The headline reason here: I&#39;ve always viewed gaming as more of a stopgap for Sea. It was important in the company&#39;s early days, yes - especially with how much cash <em>Free Fire</em>, the company&#39;s biggest hit, brought in during the pandemic when everybody was home and playing games. But Sea investors have all looked to the future for Sea&#39;s opportunity in e-commerce and digital payments when the company would become not just the Amazon of Southeast Asia, but its <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) / Square (SQ) as well. And to me, that future is very much alive.</p><p>The other core reason I remain bullish on this name, despite the disappointing gaming results: the company&#39;s softer gaming revenue and profits are offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division, long a loss leader for the company, as well as corporate-level layoffs that have actually helped Sea <em>increase</em> its EBITDA performance during a difficult time.</p><p>Beyond the near-term drivers, here is a reminder of what I view to be the long-term bull case for Sea:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Sea operates in the attractive &#34;tiger economies&#34; with secular multi-year growth tailwinds.</strong> Serving the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etc.). Outside of its home country of Singapore, Sea benefits from rapidly modernizing infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. It&#39;s not ludicrous to compare an investment in Sea to an early bet on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) in China.</p></li><li><p><strong>Sea operates a conglomeration of attractive, profitable businesses.</strong> The company&#39;s gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments businesses serve a wide net of customers and are now each profitable in their own right - giving the company plenty of growth catalysts to capture more share in Southeast Asia. These subsidiaries, particularly the more nascent payments business, enjoy synergies and cross-sell opportunities with each other.</p></li><li><p><strong>Cost discipline.</strong> Unlike many other hyper-growth companies when backed into a corner, Sea has shown expense discipline this year in laying off ~10% of its headcount amid its gaming division slowdown.</p></li><li><p><strong>Incredibly well capitalized.</strong> Sea has more than $8 billion of cash and investments on its balance sheet (for sizing, that is approximately a year&#39;s worth of opex for the company) to continue investing in growth and potentially acquire new platforms.</p></li></ul><p>The bottom line here: there&#39;s a lot to like about Sea in the long term, and with the stock under so much pressure this year, it&#39;s a good time to enter into this growth titan at an attractive price.</p><h2 id=\"id_1878808025\">Q3 download</h2><p>Like most do, we can start with the bad news in the gaming division first.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/321a2d95dde66d62aecc3b0c1b2292c9\" alt=\"Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\"/><span>Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>Quarterly active users saw a slight sequential dip to 544.1 million users, while the quarterly paid-user ratio fell sequentially as well to 7.5%. Total bookings in the division were slightly up versus Q2, but down -33% y/y to $447.9 million. Revenue for digital entertainment, similarly, was down -34% y/y to $592.2 million. As a reminder, for Sea, bookings in the gaming division represents when players purchased in-game items or subscriptions, whereas revenue represent the usage of those purchases.</p><p>Anecdotal commentary from the company&#39;s core gaming franchises pointed to stable user engagement (at least sequentially), with some pickup from non-<em>Free Fire</em> titles. Per Chief Corporate Officer Yanjung Wang&#39;s remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>We are happy to see that Free Fire maintains stable trends across both user and monetization metrics. Many of our initiatives around improving the user experience this year, such as reducing loading times, have shown continued success. We have also further deepened user engagement.</p><p>For example, we recently revamped Free Fire&#39;s guild system to enhance the social experience for our players. With all these efforts, we saw a higher revival of churned users and better user retention. Indeed, Free Fire was the most downloaded mobile game in the third quarter globally, according to Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>. We are also pleased to see healthy trends for our portfolio of published games. We added fresh, exciting content and enhanced the user experience for these games. New content on Arena of Valor received very positive user feedback, resulting in a new peak of quarterly active users for the game. Another of our published games, Call of Duty Mobile, achieved its highest quarterly bookings.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>It&#39;s worth reminding ourselves that <em>Free Fire</em> was completely developed in-house. Sea has the technical know-how to develop hit games - and given time, it may produce another to reduce its reliance on its original golden goose.</p><p>Results in the e-commerce division, meanwhile, were much more sanguine. Revenue grew 18% y/y, driven by a 5% y/y growth in GMV.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72075233840e15eeb1762e1972c2758a\" alt=\"Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\"/><span>Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>The company believes that it gained market share in the quarter, and that share growth was driven in large part by the broad rollout of Shoppee Live - where product sellers do video demonstrations of their wares. Sea management noted that viewership hours on Shoppee Live in the month of October were triple that of June and that one in every five Shoppee users in Indonesia had used the feature.</p><p>Economies of scale have tremendously helped the e-commerce business scale, and the company notes that logistics costs per order are down -17% y/y. This has helped the company reduce its adjusted EBITDA losses to -$346.5 million, which is roughly one-third less than in the year-ago Q3. This was, in turn, driven by outperformance in Brazil - which gives us additional hope that Sea can be successful outside of Asia and in other hyper-growth economies as well.</p><p>You can see as well in the chart below that Sea has made substantial cuts to general and administrative as well as R&amp;D expenses, the result of layoffs that began in the tail end of 2022 that have shaved off ~10% of its headcount:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ca4c724937d910aef8674cf417609fe\" alt=\"Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/><span>Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><p>The combination of lower e-commerce losses and lower corporate overhead helped the company produce a <strong>positive adjusted EBITDA of $35.3 million,</strong> versus a -$357.7 million loss in the year-ago period:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d5ec4fe076879928462ffc65c70f77\" alt=\"Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" title=\"Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/><span>Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2146270465\">Key takeaways</h2><p>In my view, I like the fact that Sea is finding ways to boost adjusted profitability even when its most profitable segment is faltering. While it&#39;s true that Sea has a lot to prove (reducing its reliance on <em>Free</em> Fire, improving e-commerce profitability in Asia, demonstrating growth in non-Asia markets), a lot of pessimism is baked into Sea&#39;s share price at sub-$40 and it&#39;s a great time to enter into this stock at a de-risked valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: I'm Buying While The Stock Keeps Falling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-22 14:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653364-sea-im-buying-while-the-stock-keeps-falling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2385524523","content_text":"Sea's stock has fallen by nearly 30% due to a slowdown in its gaming division, but the company's future in e-commerce and digital payments remains promising.The company's softer gaming revenue is offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division and cost discipline measures.Live streaming has helped the company to drive e-commerce bookings growth and secure market share gains.The company is also noting outsized performance in Brazil, demonstrating that Sea has a future beyond Asia.A fresh bull market is well underway, with investors shrugging off the threat of inflation and cheering the end of rate hikes. Growth stocks are hot again, with very few exceptions - and among them is Sea (NYSE:SE), the self-dubbed \"Amazon of Southeast Asia.\"This one-time market darling has seen its share price crater by nearly 30% this year, owing to one thing: a slowdown in its gaming division, which has been its cash cow for years as the company was ramping its e-commerce and digital financial services segments.Data by YChartsI last covered Sea in July, when the stock was trading closer to $55 per share. Since then, the stock has fallen by a fresh ~30%, driven by a poorly received third-quarter earnings print. And while I'm certainly not cheering the company's third-quarter results and the hole in my portfolio has been painful to bear, I'm renewing my bullish call on Sea and using the dip as a buying opportunity.The headline reason here: I've always viewed gaming as more of a stopgap for Sea. It was important in the company's early days, yes - especially with how much cash Free Fire, the company's biggest hit, brought in during the pandemic when everybody was home and playing games. But Sea investors have all looked to the future for Sea's opportunity in e-commerce and digital payments when the company would become not just the Amazon of Southeast Asia, but its PayPal (PYPL) / Square (SQ) as well. And to me, that future is very much alive.The other core reason I remain bullish on this name, despite the disappointing gaming results: the company's softer gaming revenue and profits are offset by higher margins in the e-commerce division, long a loss leader for the company, as well as corporate-level layoffs that have actually helped Sea increase its EBITDA performance during a difficult time.Beyond the near-term drivers, here is a reminder of what I view to be the long-term bull case for Sea:Sea operates in the attractive \"tiger economies\" with secular multi-year growth tailwinds. Serving the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etc.). Outside of its home country of Singapore, Sea benefits from rapidly modernizing infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. It's not ludicrous to compare an investment in Sea to an early bet on Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) in China.Sea operates a conglomeration of attractive, profitable businesses. The company's gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments businesses serve a wide net of customers and are now each profitable in their own right - giving the company plenty of growth catalysts to capture more share in Southeast Asia. These subsidiaries, particularly the more nascent payments business, enjoy synergies and cross-sell opportunities with each other.Cost discipline. Unlike many other hyper-growth companies when backed into a corner, Sea has shown expense discipline this year in laying off ~10% of its headcount amid its gaming division slowdown.Incredibly well capitalized. Sea has more than $8 billion of cash and investments on its balance sheet (for sizing, that is approximately a year's worth of opex for the company) to continue investing in growth and potentially acquire new platforms.The bottom line here: there's a lot to like about Sea in the long term, and with the stock under so much pressure this year, it's a good time to enter into this growth titan at an attractive price.Q3 downloadLike most do, we can start with the bad news in the gaming division first.Sea gaming results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)Quarterly active users saw a slight sequential dip to 544.1 million users, while the quarterly paid-user ratio fell sequentially as well to 7.5%. Total bookings in the division were slightly up versus Q2, but down -33% y/y to $447.9 million. Revenue for digital entertainment, similarly, was down -34% y/y to $592.2 million. As a reminder, for Sea, bookings in the gaming division represents when players purchased in-game items or subscriptions, whereas revenue represent the usage of those purchases.Anecdotal commentary from the company's core gaming franchises pointed to stable user engagement (at least sequentially), with some pickup from non-Free Fire titles. Per Chief Corporate Officer Yanjung Wang's remarks on the Q3 earnings call:We are happy to see that Free Fire maintains stable trends across both user and monetization metrics. Many of our initiatives around improving the user experience this year, such as reducing loading times, have shown continued success. We have also further deepened user engagement.For example, we recently revamped Free Fire's guild system to enhance the social experience for our players. With all these efforts, we saw a higher revival of churned users and better user retention. Indeed, Free Fire was the most downloaded mobile game in the third quarter globally, according to Sensor Tower. We are also pleased to see healthy trends for our portfolio of published games. We added fresh, exciting content and enhanced the user experience for these games. New content on Arena of Valor received very positive user feedback, resulting in a new peak of quarterly active users for the game. Another of our published games, Call of Duty Mobile, achieved its highest quarterly bookings.\"It's worth reminding ourselves that Free Fire was completely developed in-house. Sea has the technical know-how to develop hit games - and given time, it may produce another to reduce its reliance on its original golden goose.Results in the e-commerce division, meanwhile, were much more sanguine. Revenue grew 18% y/y, driven by a 5% y/y growth in GMV.Sea e-commerce results (Sea Q3 earnings deck)The company believes that it gained market share in the quarter, and that share growth was driven in large part by the broad rollout of Shoppee Live - where product sellers do video demonstrations of their wares. Sea management noted that viewership hours on Shoppee Live in the month of October were triple that of June and that one in every five Shoppee users in Indonesia had used the feature.Economies of scale have tremendously helped the e-commerce business scale, and the company notes that logistics costs per order are down -17% y/y. This has helped the company reduce its adjusted EBITDA losses to -$346.5 million, which is roughly one-third less than in the year-ago Q3. This was, in turn, driven by outperformance in Brazil - which gives us additional hope that Sea can be successful outside of Asia and in other hyper-growth economies as well.You can see as well in the chart below that Sea has made substantial cuts to general and administrative as well as R&D expenses, the result of layoffs that began in the tail end of 2022 that have shaved off ~10% of its headcount:Sea cost profile (Sea Q3 earnings deck)The combination of lower e-commerce losses and lower corporate overhead helped the company produce a positive adjusted EBITDA of $35.3 million, versus a -$357.7 million loss in the year-ago period:Sea adjusted EBITDA (Sea Q3 earnings deck)Key takeawaysIn my view, I like the fact that Sea is finding ways to boost adjusted profitability even when its most profitable segment is faltering. While it's true that Sea has a lot to prove (reducing its reliance on Free Fire, improving e-commerce profitability in Asia, demonstrating growth in non-Asia markets), a lot of pessimism is baked into Sea's share price at sub-$40 and it's a great time to enter into this stock at a de-risked valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":233211447783480,"gmtCreate":1697964954021,"gmtModify":1697964958691,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","listText":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","text":"Hi can share what is a good strike price to sell covered call on Amazon, expiring on 27/10/2024.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/233211447783480","repostId":"2377785784","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209170058526776,"gmtCreate":1692103726878,"gmtModify":1692103734642,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","listText":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","text":"Very bad advice, did you yourself buy???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/209170058526776","repostId":"2359073891","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197130749452424,"gmtCreate":1689167780922,"gmtModify":1689168095761,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin&nbsp;","listText":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin&nbsp;","text":"Rubbish report, go to the dustbin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197130749452424","repostId":"2350150577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2350150577","pubTimestamp":1689089244,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2350150577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-11 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2350150577","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate  always is above the core PCE . But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally cau","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1040294062\">Inflation fight - The last 100 meters</h2><p>BIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with &#34;last mile&#34; inflation fight, and states that &#34;the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.&#34;</p><p>The concept of &#34;last mile&#34; is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I&#39;m familiar with the &#34;last 100m&#34; concept - that&#39;s when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.</p><p>I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the &#34;last 100m&#34; problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the &#34;glide mode.&#34; The secret was to switch from the &#34;glide mode&#34; to the &#34;finish mode&#34; efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.</p><h2 id=\"id_2395002047\">The Fed is doing it all wrong</h2><p>The Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster&#39;s race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed&#39;s strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here&#39;s the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb07668513c546a65cf80bab6bd6b69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>What do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That&#39;s how you win the race.</p><p>For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.</p><p>And now let&#39;s look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was &#34;transitory.&#34; The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the &#34;last 100m&#34; of this race will be very interesting.</p><h2 id=\"id_1551354841\">Is inflation turning higher?</h2><p>The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2f496f0dbe4ef7c27b5d5e3f7f4e94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>So, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.</p><p>The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931382bcb41e7c48d63f5b6a122dc22\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31204265451c2e58dbfa0e9f64b130c\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"239\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>But, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.</p><p>In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that&#39;s a sharp upturn in inflation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a799a5b1d21f1242625628e196af499\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_990055891\">Why is inflation rising again?</h2><p>First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that&#39;s the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7196f73499cdc312dfa5f10d6fcc74db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>And this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b926d12d7445010f0e24578383effa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>The most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That&#39;s consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.</p><p>So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the &#34;last mile&#34; or the &#34;last 100m,&#34; and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there&#39;s a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.</p><h2 id=\"id_2346461144\">What does the Fed need to do now?</h2><p>The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there&#39;s no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That&#39;s the transition to the &#34;finish mode,&#34; and that&#39;s what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.</p><p>The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.</p><h2 id=\"id_3478179582\">Implications</h2><p>This is the Fed&#39;s strategy for the &#34;last mile&#34; or &#34;last 100m&#34; of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get &#34;tired,&#34; or wait for inflation to get &#34;the lactic acid&#34; and just die out.</p><p>This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the &#34;finish mode.&#34; However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.</p><p>The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.</p><p>The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).</p><p>Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it&#39;s likely that many more regional banks would fail.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-11 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350150577","content_text":"Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.\"The concept of \"last mile\" is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I'm familiar with the \"last 100m\" concept - that's when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the \"last 100m\" problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the \"glide mode.\" The secret was to switch from the \"glide mode\" to the \"finish mode\" efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.The Fed is doing it all wrongThe Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster's race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed's strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here's the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):FREDWhat do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the \"last 100m\" of this race will be very interesting.Is inflation turning higher?The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:Trading EconomicsSo, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.Cleveland FedCleveland FedBut, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that's a sharp upturn in inflation.Cleveland FedWhy is inflation rising again?First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that's the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):Trading EconomicsAnd this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:Trading EconomicsThe most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That's consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the \"last mile\" or the \"last 100m,\" and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there's a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.What does the Fed need to do now?The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there's no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That's the transition to the \"finish mode,\" and that's what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.ImplicationsThis is the Fed's strategy for the \"last mile\" or \"last 100m\" of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get \"tired,\" or wait for inflation to get \"the lactic acid\" and just die out.This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the \"finish mode.\" However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it's likely that many more regional banks would fail.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186888897245336,"gmtCreate":1686666605878,"gmtModify":1686668172260,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???&nbsp;","listText":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???&nbsp;","text":"Buy don't sell, then buy for what ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186888897245336","repostId":"2339932022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183970501087384,"gmtCreate":1685936001634,"gmtModify":1685939594324,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","listText":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","text":"If course don't fear, did you use your own money to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183970501087384","repostId":"2340029708","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}