louisong88 personal page - To The Moon

louisong88

louisong88

Profile：一顺百顺福星高照我.

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2023-08-08

Fxxking idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.

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2023-05-31

‌[得意] ‌

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2023-03-20

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ free falling ？？what's up dude

2023-01-28

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk

2023-01-27

Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq

Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.

2022-12-22

Fuxk !! just them can do ..

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2022-12-16

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.

2022-09-23

‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌

Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

2022-08-12

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step

2022-08-11

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.

2022-08-04

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?

2022-06-29

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$fuxk !！what's up

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","listText":"Fxxking&nbsp;idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","text":"Fxxking idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/206656344006896","repostId":"2357267347","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182405059145736,"gmtCreate":1685541708073,"gmtModify":1685541713506,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[得意]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[得意]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[得意] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182405059145736","repostId":"2339954892","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943154158,"gmtCreate":1679306033875,"gmtModify":1679306120322,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>free falling ？？what's up dude&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>free falling ？？what's up dude&nbsp;","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ free falling ？？what's up dude","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943154158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952550229,"gmtCreate":1674835575862,"gmtModify":1676538961746,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ &nbsp;</a>fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ &nbsp;</a>fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952550229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952521381,"gmtCreate":1674831174743,"gmtModify":1676538961347,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","listText":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","text":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952521381","repostId":"2306445904","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2306445904","pubTimestamp":1674781546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2306445904?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-27 09:05","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2306445904","media":"Market Watch:","summary":"Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking ov","content":"<div>\n<p>Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/hwT0HJlm92\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_twitter","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-27 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://t.co/hwT0HJlm92><strong>Market Watch:</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/hwT0HJlm92\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4539":"次新股"},"source_url":"https://t.co/hwT0HJlm92","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2306445904","content_text":"Marqeta Chief Product Officer Simon Khalaf will become the company’s next chief executive, taking over for founder Jason Gardner, who previously announced he planned to transition his role.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922107764,"gmtCreate":1671710382058,"gmtModify":1676538579989,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fuxk !!&nbsp;just them can do ..","listText":"Fuxk !!&nbsp;just them can do ..","text":"Fuxk !! just them can do ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922107764","repostId":"2293024133","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928109844,"gmtCreate":1671205999288,"gmtModify":1676538509222,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928109844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913929055,"gmtCreate":1663898191277,"gmtModify":1676537359072,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913929055","repostId":"2269163612","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2269163612","pubTimestamp":1663810278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2269163612?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269163612","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding par","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>In 2022, Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.</li><li>Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.</li><li>With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart&#39;s credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.</li><li>As I see it, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).</li><li>Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaf3098269a8edf09402ae666fbffbc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>As an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I&#39;m rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.</p><p><b>The Good:</b> Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f069eda742677379019a565439303b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Upstart Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><b>Recently announced lending partnerships:</b></p><ul><li>Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]</li><li>Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]</li></ul><p>Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart&#39;s business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).</p><p>In the meantime, Upstart&#39;s robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.</p><p><b>The Bad:</b> Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company&#39;s C-suite, Upstart&#39;s funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.</p><h2>Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:</h2><ul><li>Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave Girouard</li><li>Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay Datta</li></ul><p>With funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that&#39;s likely not happening until the Fed pivots).</p><p><b>The Ugly:</b> In my analysis of Upstart&#39;s Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart&#39;s ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] &gt; Expected CND].</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b452ffdaf273481a101a268cfd880746\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA news release</span></p><p>Upstart&#39;s AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart&#39;s marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company&#39;s long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn&#39;t mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart&#39;s management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.</p><p>In the first half of Q3, Upstart&#39;s business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457e76fc6bc799e48cd4ce92fcb2f834\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>US Treasury Yields (YCharts)</span></p><p>Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart&#39;s credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.</p><p>If Upstart&#39;s credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart&#39;s relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart&#39;s management has presented data that shows its AI&#39;s superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.</p><p>Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart&#39;s website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart&#39;s conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart&#39;s lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1064ae071dc533e56528acea4319f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TipRanks</span></p><p>With all of this information in mind, let&#39;s re-evaluate Upstart&#39;s intrinsic value and expected returns.</p><h2>Upstart&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2><p>To find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI&#39;s Valuation model:</p><p>After internalizing Upstart&#39;s Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34e00979cf8405a61280f88ade843ee7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a38135fb367604a520be83adbdf4d8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)</span></p><p>In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors.</p><h2>My Positioning For UPST</h2><p>As I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let&#39;s go over some history.</p><p>So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:</p><ul><li>Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]</li></ul><p>On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.</p><ul><li>Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]</li></ul><p>While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0dd2dac1872e66edebb88efa4f1201\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"140\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s note</span></p><p>And here&#39;s what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart&#39;s Q2 earnings report:</p><blockquote>After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart&#39;s stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart&#39;s earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.</blockquote><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c5ed5e73694adbda5ec606c8be0d91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s Note</span></p></blockquote><blockquote><i><b>As we know, Upstart&#39;s financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.</b></i></blockquote><blockquote>From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart&#39;s liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings &amp; Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]</blockquote><p>On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims &amp; Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management&#39;s flip-flop on Upstart&#39;s use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.</p><p>With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.</p><p>Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart&#39;s balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart&#39;s market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.</p><p>For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746debcc7bfd52c08fe4c60f6c01975d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"119\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)</span></p><p>Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart&#39;s stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there&#39;s a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.</p><p>The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within &#34;TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio&#34;, which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI&#39;s highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>As a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart&#39;s vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.</p><p>While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart&#39;s AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart&#39;s management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.</p><p>Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart&#39;s investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart&#39;s stock may suffer more pain in the near term.</p><p>Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors at $24.</p><p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269163612","content_text":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart's credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.As I see it, Upstart's lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).DNY59IntroductionAs an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I'm rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.The Good: Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.Upstart Q2 Earnings PresentationRecently announced lending partnerships:Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart's business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).In the meantime, Upstart's robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.The Bad: Upstart's lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company's C-suite, Upstart's funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave GirouardPiper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay DattaWith funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that's likely not happening until the Fed pivots).The Ugly: In my analysis of Upstart's Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart's ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] > Expected CND].KBRA news releaseUpstart's AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart's marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company's long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn't mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart's management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.In the first half of Q3, Upstart's business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.US Treasury Yields (YCharts)Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart's credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.If Upstart's credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart's relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart's management has presented data that shows its AI's superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart's website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart's conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart's lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.TipRanksWith all of this information in mind, let's re-evaluate Upstart's intrinsic value and expected returns.Upstart's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsTo find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI's Valuation model:After internalizing Upstart's Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors.My Positioning For UPSTAs I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let's go over some history.So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.Author's noteAnd here's what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart's Q2 earnings report:After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart's stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart's earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.Author's NoteAs we know, Upstart's financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart's liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings & Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims & Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management's flip-flop on Upstart's use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart's lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart's balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart's market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart's stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there's a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within \"TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio\", which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI's highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.Final ThoughtsAs a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart's vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart's AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart's management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart's investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart's stock may suffer more pain in the near term.Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.Key Takeaway: I rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors at $24.Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990074681,"gmtCreate":1660267822445,"gmtModify":1676533105855,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990074681","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907496073,"gmtCreate":1660228509894,"gmtModify":1703496788164,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907496073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902047919,"gmtCreate":1659620365535,"gmtModify":1705988015143,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902047919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042543952,"gmtCreate":1656505630676,"gmtModify":1676535841811,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fuxk !！what's up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fuxk !！what's up&nbsp;","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$fuxk !！what's up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042543952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9928109844,"gmtCreate":1671205999288,"gmtModify":1676538509222,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ compeny management is blind ？？or just the scam , share price is going hell. Fuxk.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928109844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990074681,"gmtCreate":1660267822445,"gmtModify":1676533105855,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$will recover tonight,CEO not going anywhere ( chairman )just looking for new person who can bring the company to next step (we miss understanding it Jason are not going anywhere )rocket 🚀🚀🚀 to next step","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990074681","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943154158,"gmtCreate":1679306033875,"gmtModify":1679306120322,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>free falling ？？what's up dude&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ &nbsp;</a>free falling ？？what's up dude&nbsp;","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ free falling ？？what's up dude","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943154158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907496073,"gmtCreate":1660228509894,"gmtModify":1703496788164,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$damn CEO .are we going to appeal it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907496073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042543952,"gmtCreate":1656505630676,"gmtModify":1676535841811,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fuxk !！what's up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a>fuxk !！what's up&nbsp;","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$fuxk !！what's up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042543952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":206656344006896,"gmtCreate":1691485063732,"gmtModify":1691486449076,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fxxking&nbsp;idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","listText":"Fxxking&nbsp;idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","text":"Fxxking idiot analysis.. your wrong i bet it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/206656344006896","repostId":"2357267347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2357267347","pubTimestamp":1691457335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2357267347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-08 09:15","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"J.P. Morgan Sticks to Their Sell Rating for Upstart Holdings (UPST)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2357267347","media":"TIPRANKS","summary":"In a report released yesterday, Reginald Smith from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Upstart Holdings (UPST – Research Report). The company’...","content":"<div>\n<p>In a report released yesterday, Reginald Smith from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Upstart Holdings (UPST – Research Report). The company’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/j-p-morgan-sticks-to-their-sell-rating-for-upstart-holdings-upst?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tipranks_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>J.P. Morgan Sticks to Their Sell Rating for Upstart Holdings (UPST)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJ.P. Morgan Sticks to Their Sell Rating for Upstart Holdings (UPST)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-08 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/j-p-morgan-sticks-to-their-sell-rating-for-upstart-holdings-upst?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral><strong>TIPRANKS</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a report released yesterday, Reginald Smith from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Upstart Holdings (UPST – Research Report). The company’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/j-p-morgan-sticks-to-their-sell-rating-for-upstart-holdings-upst?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4166":"消费信贷","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/j-p-morgan-sticks-to-their-sell-rating-for-upstart-holdings-upst?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2357267347","content_text":"In a report released yesterday, Reginald Smith from J.P. Morgan maintained a Sell rating on Upstart Holdings (UPST – Research Report). The company’...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182405059145736,"gmtCreate":1685541708073,"gmtModify":1685541713506,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[得意]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[得意]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[得意] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182405059145736","repostId":"2339954892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2339954892","pubTimestamp":1685540818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2339954892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-31 21:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美国两党最新表态！给市场吃下“定心丸”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2339954892","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国众议院将于当地时间周三对美债上限协议进行投票，刚刚美国两党先后表态，市场可以安心了……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国众议院将于当地时间周三对美债上限协议进行投票，刚刚美国两党先后表态，市场可以安心了……</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249c9abf5a77df35d64803e31ec95a09\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1055\"/></p><blockquote>美国两党正式表态，给市场吃下“定心丸”。</blockquote><p>美国众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）周二表示，<strong>民主党人将与共和党人一起提供至少足够的选票，以确保众议院周三晚间通过拜登与众议院议长麦卡锡达成的债务上限协议。</strong></p><p>杰弗里斯表示，<strong>他支持向该协议妥协，但没有具体说明有多少民主党人会投票支持这项措施</strong>。杰弗里斯称：</p><blockquote>“我们将确保这个国家不会违约。我们明天就能让这项法案通过终点线。”</blockquote><p>杰弗里斯补充称：“我们现在正在进行接触。”<strong>他指的是通过接触确定有多少民主党人会支持这项协议。</strong>他表示，这将包括定于星期三举行的一次闭门会议，“政府成员将能够继续与核心小组成员进行对话”。</p><p>而就在刚刚，<strong>美国共和党众议员埃默也表态称，债务上限法案将在今天通过，目标是在债务上限法案上获得218票。</strong></p><p>然而，该协议并未让所有人满意，民主党左翼人士对此似乎感到很不满。国会进步核心小组主席普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal）周二早些时候表示，<strong>她所在小组的大多数成员不支持法案中的削减开支、能源项目许可和扩大工作要求等条款</strong>。</p><p>共和党在众议院以222对213的微弱优势占多数，如果所有议员都出席，需要有218票支持才能通过该法案。而麦卡锡所在的共和党会议的一些成员此前也表示，他们将反对这项法案。</p><p>强硬的共和党议员甚至威胁要对白宫和众议院议长麦卡锡之间达成的债务上限协议进行报复，<strong>一位保守派议员表示，他计划发动投票罢免麦卡锡</strong>。北卡罗来纳州众议员丹·毕晓普（Dan Bishop）表示，由于麦卡锡向民主党“投降”，他计划启动正式程序罢免议长。</p><p><strong>面临这一威胁的麦卡锡仍表示对债务投票充满信心。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国两党最新表态！给市场吃下“定心丸”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国两党最新表态！给市场吃下“定心丸”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-31 21:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=113948&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国众议院将于当地时间周三对美债上限协议进行投票，刚刚美国两党先后表态，市场可以安心了……美国两党正式表态，给市场吃下“定心丸”。美国众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）周二表示，民主党人将与共和党人一起提供至少足够的选票，以确保众议院周三晚间通过拜登与众议院议长麦卡锡达成的债务上限协议。杰弗里斯表示，他支持向该协议妥协，但没有具体说明有多少民主党人会投票支持这项措施...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=113948&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b5fee82ab6fede8afa41f9ef465789","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=113948&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2339954892","content_text":"美国众议院将于当地时间周三对美债上限协议进行投票，刚刚美国两党先后表态，市场可以安心了……美国两党正式表态，给市场吃下“定心丸”。美国众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）周二表示，民主党人将与共和党人一起提供至少足够的选票，以确保众议院周三晚间通过拜登与众议院议长麦卡锡达成的债务上限协议。杰弗里斯表示，他支持向该协议妥协，但没有具体说明有多少民主党人会投票支持这项措施。杰弗里斯称：“我们将确保这个国家不会违约。我们明天就能让这项法案通过终点线。”杰弗里斯补充称：“我们现在正在进行接触。”他指的是通过接触确定有多少民主党人会支持这项协议。他表示，这将包括定于星期三举行的一次闭门会议，“政府成员将能够继续与核心小组成员进行对话”。而就在刚刚，美国共和党众议员埃默也表态称，债务上限法案将在今天通过，目标是在债务上限法案上获得218票。然而，该协议并未让所有人满意，民主党左翼人士对此似乎感到很不满。国会进步核心小组主席普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal）周二早些时候表示，她所在小组的大多数成员不支持法案中的削减开支、能源项目许可和扩大工作要求等条款。共和党在众议院以222对213的微弱优势占多数，如果所有议员都出席，需要有218票支持才能通过该法案。而麦卡锡所在的共和党会议的一些成员此前也表示，他们将反对这项法案。强硬的共和党议员甚至威胁要对白宫和众议院议长麦卡锡之间达成的债务上限协议进行报复，一位保守派议员表示，他计划发动投票罢免麦卡锡。北卡罗来纳州众议员丹·毕晓普（Dan Bishop）表示，由于麦卡锡向民主党“投降”，他计划启动正式程序罢免议长。面临这一威胁的麦卡锡仍表示对债务投票充满信心。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952550229,"gmtCreate":1674835575862,"gmtModify":1676538961746,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ &nbsp;</a>fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ &nbsp;</a>fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ fuxking former or at present CEO just killing the share price..fuxxxk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952550229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952521381,"gmtCreate":1674831174743,"gmtModify":1676538961347,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","listText":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","text":"Fuxking former or at present CEO you both just killing the share price.fuxk u mq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952521381","repostId":"2306445904","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922107764,"gmtCreate":1671710382058,"gmtModify":1676538579989,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fuxk !!&nbsp;just them can do ..","listText":"Fuxk !!&nbsp;just them can do ..","text":"Fuxk !! just them can do ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922107764","repostId":"2293024133","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2293024133","pubTimestamp":1671700644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293024133?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-22 17:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股异动 | Opendoor Technologies盘前跌4.4 遭首席执行官抛售13.11万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293024133","media":"金融界网站","summary":"格隆汇12月22日丨上交易日大跌9%的Opendoor Technologies(OPEN.US)盘前再跌4.4%，报1.09美元。资料显示，该股首席执行官WHEELER CARRIE于12月16日以每股平均价1.29美元售出13.11万股。","content":"<html><body><div>格隆汇12月22日丨上交易日大跌9%的Opendoor Technologies(OPEN.US)盘前再跌4.4%，报1.09美元。资料显示，该股首席执行官WHEELER CARRIE于12月16日以每股平均价1.29美元售出13.11万股。\n\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股异动 | Opendoor Technologies盘前跌4.4 遭首席执行官抛售13.11万股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股异动 | Opendoor Technologies盘前跌4.4 遭首席执行官抛售13.11万股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-22 17:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/12/22171737231764.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格隆汇12月22日丨上交易日大跌9%的Opendoor Technologies(OPEN.US)盘前再跌4.4%，报1.09美元。资料显示，该股首席执行官WHEELER CARRIE于12月16日以每股平均价1.29美元售出13.11万股。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/12/22171737231764.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4079":"房地产服务","OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4562":"SPAC上市公司"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/12/22171737231764.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293024133","content_text":"格隆汇12月22日丨上交易日大跌9%的Opendoor Technologies(OPEN.US)盘前再跌4.4%，报1.09美元。资料显示，该股首席执行官WHEELER CARRIE于12月16日以每股平均价1.29美元售出13.11万股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913929055,"gmtCreate":1663898191277,"gmtModify":1676537359072,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌","listText":"‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[强]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌‌[强] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913929055","repostId":"2269163612","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2269163612","pubTimestamp":1663810278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2269163612?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269163612","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding par","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>In 2022, Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.</li><li>Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.</li><li>With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart&#39;s credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.</li><li>As I see it, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).</li><li>Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaf3098269a8edf09402ae666fbffbc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>As an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I&#39;m rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.</p><p><b>The Good:</b> Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f069eda742677379019a565439303b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Upstart Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><b>Recently announced lending partnerships:</b></p><ul><li>Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]</li><li>Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]</li></ul><p>Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart&#39;s business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).</p><p>In the meantime, Upstart&#39;s robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.</p><p><b>The Bad:</b> Upstart&#39;s lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company&#39;s C-suite, Upstart&#39;s funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.</p><h2>Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:</h2><ul><li>Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave Girouard</li><li>Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay Datta</li></ul><p>With funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that&#39;s likely not happening until the Fed pivots).</p><p><b>The Ugly:</b> In my analysis of Upstart&#39;s Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart&#39;s ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] &gt; Expected CND].</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b452ffdaf273481a101a268cfd880746\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA news release</span></p><p>Upstart&#39;s AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart&#39;s marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company&#39;s long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn&#39;t mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart&#39;s management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.</p><p>In the first half of Q3, Upstart&#39;s business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457e76fc6bc799e48cd4ce92fcb2f834\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>US Treasury Yields (YCharts)</span></p><p>Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart&#39;s credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.</p><p>If Upstart&#39;s credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart&#39;s relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart&#39;s management has presented data that shows its AI&#39;s superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.</p><p>Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart&#39;s website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart&#39;s conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart&#39;s lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1064ae071dc533e56528acea4319f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TipRanks</span></p><p>With all of this information in mind, let&#39;s re-evaluate Upstart&#39;s intrinsic value and expected returns.</p><h2>Upstart&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2><p>To find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI&#39;s Valuation model:</p><p>After internalizing Upstart&#39;s Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34e00979cf8405a61280f88ade843ee7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a38135fb367604a520be83adbdf4d8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)</span></p><p>In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors.</p><h2>My Positioning For UPST</h2><p>As I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let&#39;s go over some history.</p><p>So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:</p><ul><li>Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]</li></ul><p>On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.</p><ul><li>Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]</li></ul><p>While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0dd2dac1872e66edebb88efa4f1201\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"140\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s note</span></p><p>And here&#39;s what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart&#39;s Q2 earnings report:</p><blockquote>After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart&#39;s stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart&#39;s earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.</blockquote><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c5ed5e73694adbda5ec606c8be0d91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author&#39;s Note</span></p></blockquote><blockquote><i><b>As we know, Upstart&#39;s financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.</b></i></blockquote><blockquote>From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart&#39;s liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings &amp; Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]</blockquote><p>On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims &amp; Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management&#39;s flip-flop on Upstart&#39;s use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.</p><p>With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart&#39;s lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.</p><p>Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart&#39;s balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart&#39;s market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.</p><p>For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746debcc7bfd52c08fe4c60f6c01975d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"119\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)</span></p><p>Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart&#39;s stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there&#39;s a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.</p><p>The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within &#34;TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio&#34;, which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI&#39;s highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI&#39;s Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>As a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart&#39;s vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.</p><p>While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart&#39;s AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart&#39;s management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.</p><p>Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart&#39;s investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart&#39;s stock may suffer more pain in the near term.</p><p>Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Upstart a &#39;Strong Buy&#39; for long-term investors at $24.</p><p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542140-upstart-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269163612","content_text":"SummaryIn 2022, Upstart's lending marketplace volumes have been contracting violently as funding partners turn risk averse homogeneously due to fears of a potential economic recession.Despite this volume contraction, Upstart is still operating at breakeven to positive free cash flow, adding new credit union partners to its lending marketplace, and expanding its auto dealership footprint.With interest rates climbing higher and inflation staying elevated, Upstart's credit performance is likely to get worse, which in turn could keep its marketplace - funding constrained - for longer.As I see it, Upstart's lending volumes will likely continue to contract further in H2 2022 and probably into 2023 or at least until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program).Considering the risk/reward, I continue to like UPST stock as a long-term buy at ~$24 (with an insurance policy, i.e., options-based hedging strategy).DNY59IntroductionAs an Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) investor, I'm rooting for the good, preparing for the bad, and positioning for the ugly.The Good: Upstart is suffering a violent contraction in lending volumes due to a rapidly deteriorating credit market. However, whenwe look under the hood, the company is still adding new partners to its AI-powered lending marketplace and expanding its presence among auto dealerships.Upstart Q2 Earnings PresentationRecently announced lending partnerships:Vantage West Credit Union Partners with Upstart to Offer a More Streamlined, Digital-first Borrowing Experience[8th September 2022]Alliant Credit Union Selects Upstart for a Personal Lending Fintech Partnership[17th August 2022]Even during this uncertain macroeconomic environment, Upstart adding more partners to its marketplace is setting up the company for a brighter future. When the credit cycle turns (and it will turn at some point [hopefully, in 2023]), Upstart's business is likely to come back stronger than ever (if its credit performance holds up well).In the meantime, Upstart's robust unit economics and low fixed cost structures are set to enable the business to remain free cash flow positive during this down cycle. With $800M of cash on its balance sheet, Upstart has enough firepower to survive through these tumultuous macroeconomic conditions.The Bad: Upstart's lending marketplace is funding constrained, and according to recent commentary from the company's C-suite, Upstart's funding partners are still being risk averse (homogeneously), and no progress has been made on securing committed funding for their marketplace (plans announced in Q2 earnings call). In fact, the management admitted during recent conferences that the committed funding plan is something for the next downturn in debt markets.Links to recent conferences held in mid-September:Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference: Fireside Chat with Dave GirouardPiper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Fireside Chat with Sanjay DattaWith funding partners and institutional investors bailing on Upstart, its volumes could remain in free fall until the credit cycle turns (and that's likely not happening until the Fed pivots).The Ugly: In my analysis of Upstart's Q2 results, I highlighted the fact that its credit performance data for 2021 cohorts was unimpressive. And recent data from KBRA shows that many of Upstart's ABS securitization trusts have recently suffered (or are set to suffer) trigger breaches [Current Cumulative Net Defaults [CND] > Expected CND].KBRA news releaseUpstart's AI has never been tested in a recessionary environment, and if its credit performance fails to match or outperform FICO-based loans, institutional investors and funding partners may pull back permanently from Upstart's marketplace. In such a scenario, Upstart will not be able to scale due to the limitations of its balance sheet. The company's long-term future will then be as a financial lending institution, similar to LendingClub (LC) or SoFi (SOFI). Again, this doesn't mean Upstart would be a bad business; it would just be a very different business than what Upstart's management has set out to build. The valuation would look a lot different too, but more on that later.In the first half of Q3, Upstart's business would have gotten some relief as interest moderated somewhat; however, the second half of Q3 saw surging interest rates, as shown in the chart below. As of writing, the 2-yr treasury yield is inching towards 4%, and the 10-yr treasury yield is ~3.6%.US Treasury Yields (YCharts)Inflation readings are coming in hot despite consumer sentiment being down in the dumps, and the yield curve inversion is pointing towards a potential recession. Honestly, I think that Upstart's credit performance data is set to get worse over coming quarters as it would for almost all lending institutions amid an unprecedented quantitative tightening from central banks across the globe.If Upstart's credit performance is better than peers during the next few quarters, we will see a sharp recovery in its marketplace lending volumes once the credit cycle turns. However, if Upstart's relative performance is not better than peers, we may be left with a slow to no growth, digital-lending fintech business (with no bank charter [i.e., high-cost structure]). Upstart's management has presented data that shows its AI's superior risk separation capabilities, and the next few quarters will determine if this data is reliable.Another concerning data point I have come across is Upstart's website traffic. While total traffic grew by 12% y/y in August, Desktop views tanked by ~35%. Rising interest rates are set to lower the demand for loans and impact Upstart's conversion rates (as seen in Q2). As a result, Upstart's lending activity may continue to contract for the foreseeable future.TipRanksWith all of this information in mind, let's re-evaluate Upstart's intrinsic value and expected returns.Upstart's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsTo find the fair value and expected return of Upstart, we will use TQI's Valuation model:After internalizing Upstart's Q3 revenue guidance, recent management commentary at conferences, interest rate trajectory, and website traffic data, I am cutting my revenue forecast for 2022 from $900M to $800M. All the remaining assumptions are held constant from my previous analysis.TQI Valuation Model (tqig.org)In accordance with these results, I am cutting my fair value estimate for Upstart from ~$58 to ~$47 per share and reducing my 5-yr price target to $171 per share. Since these expected returns are well above my required IRR of 25% for high-risk, moonshot growth bets like Upstart, I continue to rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors.My Positioning For UPSTAs I said at the start of this article, I am positioning for the ugly; however, before we see how that looks, let's go over some history.So, as you may know, Upstart has been a part of my portfolio since early 2021, and I have added to my long position on several occasions through my monthly capital allocation plans. After factoring in all my purchases, I owned Upstart at a cost basis of $78 in May 2022. My investment thesis and hedging strategy (expired in August 2022) can be found here:Upstart: An Opportunity Of A Lifetime Or A Tragic Mistake?[Investment Thesis, Positioning, and Valuation - 18th July 2022]On earnings day, I shared a preview note and suggested a short squeeze in Upstart on potentially better-than-feared guidance for Q3.Upstart Q2 Preview: Short-Sellers Should Brace For Impact[Q2 Earnings Preview - 8th August 2022]While actual guidance came in worse than my bear case projections, the stock still squeezed higher. However, the horror of the Q3 guide and yet another business model pivot led me to suggest profit-booking.Author's noteAnd here's what I wrote in my detailed review of Upstart's Q2 earnings report:After a strong rally going into Q2 earnings, Upstart's stock squeezed up to $37.50; however, we have seen a sharp retracement in the stock over the last three trading sessions. On Upstart's earnings day [8th August], I issued a buy rating on the stock at $29 per share, and while the stock is now trading below this level, I want to congratulate those who took profits on the post-ER rally.Author's NoteAs we know, Upstart's financial numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and the company is undergoing a business model transition. With turmoil in debt markets unlikely to end in the near term, the stock could remain volatile over the coming months. Upstart has hit turbulence, the seat belt sign is on, and all trading bets are off.From a long-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish on Upstart. The business is still operating at breakeven FCF with robust unit economics. With ~$800M in cash, Upstart's liquidity position is strong enough to get through this downturn in the debt markets. Once debt markets normalize, Upstart could emerge as a big beneficiary since its credit underwriting will have been war tested (i.e., proven). Personally, I have been proactively managing risk in Upstart through option-based hedging strategies; and I will continue to do so for the next couple of quarters.Source: Upstart: The Seat Belt Sign Is On [Q2 Earnings & Q3 Guidance Review - 22nd August 2022]On the expiry of my previous hedge (19th August 2022), I exercised my $48 Puts and bought back an equivalent number of shares over the last two weeks of August (at ~$25.6 per share). While I had the opportunity to double my position (by number of shares) in Upstart [effectively cutting my cost basis to $39 per share], I kept the excess cash to deploy into Opendoor (OPEN), Hims & Hers (HIMS), and Roku (ROKU). The reason for doing so was management's flip-flop on Upstart's use of the balance sheet as a bridge for loans, concerns around credit performance, and shrinking lending activity. Now, in effect, I ended up reducing my portfolio exposure to Upstart by half (it is still a double-digit portfolio weight for me). My effective cost basis for Upstart is now ~$55.5 (previously, it was $78), and I think the last hedge worked out very well.With interest rates climbing higher and the Fed steaming forward with its quantitative tightening program, Upstart's lending volumes may contract further in coming quarters. While I am happy with the progress Upstart is making on expanding its marketplace through the addition of partners and extension into other loan categories, the near to medium term business outlook for Upstart looks bleak.Upstart has ample cash to survive this debt cycle downturn; however, as Upstart's balance sheet risk increases with more loans showing up on the books, the market may choose to price it like a traditional lender. And I have outlined in my previous research notes that such a valuation (1-1.5x book value) would put Upstart's market cap at around ~$0.8-1.2B. This figure is half of where Upstart is trading right now, and I am preparing for this sort of ugly scenario with my new hedging strategy.For every 100 shares of Upstart, I bought 1 $25 Put, sold 1 $40 Call, and sold 2 $12.5 Puts. This hedging strategy cost me absolutely nothing (in fact, it yielded 3 cents a share); however, it limits my upside to +56% [$40], provides downside protection up to -50% [$12.5], and obligates me to double my position (by number of shares) at $12.5 per share if the share is trading below this level at expiry.Managed Risk Portfolio (The Quantamental Investor)Since I can exercise the $25 Put to fulfill this obligation, I am effectively gifting myself the ability to significantly reduce my cost in the event of a meltdown in Upstart's stock. Under $12.5, I will start losing more money, but I am willing to take this risk as I still believe in the mission and vision of Upstart, and there's a good chance this business will bounce back stronger in a new credit cycle.The hedging strategy showcased above is implemented within \"TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio\", which is a collection of tactical positions on some of TQI's highest conviction investment ideas, designed to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. In a vicious bear market, TQI's Managed Risk Portfolio is our way of swinging for the fences with insurance policies limiting our downside risks.Final ThoughtsAs a long-term investor, I continue to believe in Upstart's vision of transforming the credit industry with artificial intelligence, and I truly hope that Upstart can succeed where predecessors like LendingClub have failed. Nothing is guaranteed in investing, but Upstart is one of those generational bets that can end up disrupting a multi-trillion-dollar industry.While Upstart is facing several headwinds, the company has enough liquidity ($800M in cash) to get through this debt cycle downturn. The fact that Upstart is not burning cash (operating near FCF breakeven) helps. If Upstart's AI proves its ability to price credit risk better than traditional FICO-based models, we can expect explosive volume growth at Upstart over the next few years. However, investors may need to wait patiently for the credit markets to unfreeze, which may not happen until the Fed pivots (slows or reverses its quantitative tightening program). And in this period, Upstart's management is likely to be forced into raising balance sheet risk to support lending volumes.Marketplace funding constraints and the risk of Upstart being left holding a big bag of bad loans are sending shockwaves into Upstart's investor base that was primarily betting on a marketplace business with massive scalability and no balance sheet risk. With the financial performance set to get worse amid rising balance sheet risk, Upstart's stock may suffer more pain in the near term.Considering the asymmetric risk/reward on offer, I continue to like Upstart as a long-term buy at ~$24. However, I am taking this high-risk, high-reward bet with an insurance policy, i.e., an options-based hedging strategy. Since early May, I have been hedged on most of my portfolio in a similar vein to Upstart, and this proactive risk management has enabled me to protect my wealth, increase holdings in my highest conviction ideas with little to no additional capital, and sleep well at night during this vicious bear market of 2022.Key Takeaway: I rate Upstart a 'Strong Buy' for long-term investors at $24.Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below or send me a direct message on SA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902047919,"gmtCreate":1659620365535,"gmtModify":1705988015143,"author":{"id":"4091339140240060","authorId":"4091339140240060","name":"louisong88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6f221c5bee6580b11985e42164a971","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$what the fuxking up ？？someone know it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902047919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}