BRL2313 personal page - To The Moon

BRL2313

BRL2313

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2022-11-30

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$

2022-09-18

Good advice

This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way

2022-09-16

Who to listen to?

JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy

2022-09-09

Good read

Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia

2022-09-07

Good advice

3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy

2022-09-06

Useful info

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-01

Dark clouds ahead

Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications

2022-07-13

I believe

Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock

2022-05-23

Good advice

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-20

Ok won't eat the apple now

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-20

Let the bear growls for a while

Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead

2022-05-16

Love the optimism

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-10

At least not another doomsday prediction

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-10

At least not another doomsday prediction.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-09

Hang in there

S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red

2022-05-09

Hang in there

S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red

2022-05-04

Keep advancing, long AMD

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-30

Easy come, easy go

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-28

Delightful

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-20

Sounding very pessimistic

Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937743363","repostId":"1175700857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175700857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663468218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175700857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175700857","media":"RealMoney","summary":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn&#39;t mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn&#39;t a great strategy if there isn&#39;t any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the &#39;average in&#39; strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don&#39;t just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937053532,"gmtCreate":1663329982627,"gmtModify":1676537253339,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who to listen to?","listText":"Who to listen to?","text":"Who to listen to?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937053532","repostId":"1166890805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166890805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663286370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166890805?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166890805","media":"The Street","summary":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.</p><p>Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.</p><p>But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.</p><p>“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.</p><p>“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.</p><p>And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.</p><h3>Tailwinds for Stocks</h3><p>“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.</p><p>That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”</p><p>Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.</p><p>“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.</p><p>“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.</p><p>They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.</p><h3>Dalio’s Take: Less Enthusiastic</h3><p>Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategists</p><p>Looking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.</p><p>Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.</p><p>The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 07:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166890805","content_text":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.Tailwinds for Stocks“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.Dalio’s Take: Less EnthusiasticMeanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategistsLooking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936325587,"gmtCreate":1662711419849,"gmtModify":1676537124878,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936325587","repostId":"2266975278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266975278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662702575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266975278?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266975278","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.</li><li>A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.</li><li>I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.</li><li>And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43af2347949d7465e29a052c5644fbab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>anilakkus/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I&#39;m aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df55b577ca5fe7b25afa4ea504d4e42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Total Return Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>It&#39;s difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.</p><p>I&#39;ve never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn&#39;t start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven&#39;t already.</p><p>I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I&#39;ll have a more receptive audience.</p><p><b>NVIDIA&#39;s Historical Earnings Cyclicality</b></p><p>The first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbfbc9574d9792299940ce8ea40772\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FAST Graphs</span></p><p>The dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA&#39;s historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA&#39;s earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA&#39;s first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it&#39;s likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.</p><p>The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.</p><p>So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.</p><p><b>Versus NVIDIA Stock&#39;s Historical Price</b><b>Cyclicality</b></p><p>Next, I&#39;m going to examine NVIDIA&#39;s historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don&#39;t offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24bf78d94b27582d4a9e7a0650e3dd42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>As we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During &#34;normal&#34; recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it&#39;s pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56bde6e74ae15bca9ec655f8ea23769\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA&#39;s fantastic historical returns, the stock&#39;s price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.</p><p>One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA&#39;s stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems &#34;different this time&#34;.</p><p>Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.</p><p>I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn&#39;t count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)</p><p>Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)</p><p>My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks &#34;impairment tests&#34; and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.</p><p><b>Impairment Tests</b></p><p><b>Are revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019ded39c44c5f82baece6549d82195d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>This is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.</p><p><b>Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?</b></p><p>Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is &#34;hidden&#34; and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.</p><p>That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it&#39;s possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don&#39;t think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA&#39;s recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that&#39;s something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn&#39;t had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)</p><p>In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.</p><p><b>Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?</b></p><p>I think competition will always be a threat, so that&#39;s not really what I&#39;m after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA&#39;s business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I&#39;m still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I&#39;m not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.</p><p><b>Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?</b></p><p>If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I&#39;m truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.</p><p>I don&#39;t have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It&#39;s kind of an &#34;I&#39;ll know it when I see it&#34; sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36c6dc4e9a19065db7b57ea7f9538a1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>NVIDIA stock&#39;s historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don&#39;t think the answer is especially clear.</p><p>While I think it&#39;s fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA&#39;s highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I&#39;ve decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that&#39;s -70% off the highs. Here&#39;s why.</p><p>While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.</p><p>It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto&#39;s future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.</p><p><b>Is management corrupt or incompetent?</b></p><p>I haven&#39;t seen any signs this might be the case.</p><p><b>How is the company&#39;s debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7face715f66aef629b8d8918da508b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Usually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.</p><p><b>Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?</b></p><p>For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&amp;P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&amp;P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d541071dc74c8937c0d8782198ee25\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It&#39;s worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don&#39;t buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA&#39;s case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it&#39;s worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd34148e686b4d5fabc91d05ea92ff29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>An investor who bought after a -70% <i>still</i> would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.</p><p>Next, let&#39;s move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bc789336b0c4591e8fe1b0da67692d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.</p><p>Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.</p><p><b>Additional Strategic Considerations</b></p><p>The way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it&#39;s likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don&#39;t have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.</p><p>Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it&#39;s worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that&#39;s a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I&#39;m sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.</p><p>Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today&#39;s price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as &#34;price targets&#34;, which imply that I&#39;m predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is <i>normal</i> for NVIDIA&#39;s stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn&#39;t tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.</p><p><i>This article was written by Cory Cramer </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266975278","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.anilakkus/iStock via Getty ImagesIntroduction1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I'm aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)NVDA Total Return Price data by YChartsIt's difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.I've never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn't start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven't already.I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I'll have a more receptive audience.NVIDIA's Historical Earnings CyclicalityThe first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.FAST GraphsThe dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA's historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA's earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA's first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it's likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.Versus NVIDIA Stock's Historical PriceCyclicalityNext, I'm going to examine NVIDIA's historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don't offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.NVDA data by YChartsAs we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During \"normal\" recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it's pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA's fantastic historical returns, the stock's price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA's stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems \"different this time\".Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn't count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks \"impairment tests\" and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.Impairment TestsAre revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsThis is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is \"hidden\" and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it's possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don't think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA's recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that's something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn't had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?I think competition will always be a threat, so that's not really what I'm after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA's business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I'm still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I'm not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I'm truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.I don't have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It's kind of an \"I'll know it when I see it\" sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.NVDA data by YChartsNVIDIA stock's historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don't think the answer is especially clear.While I think it's fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA's highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I've decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that's -70% off the highs. Here's why.While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto's future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.Is management corrupt or incompetent?I haven't seen any signs this might be the case.How is the company's debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YChartsUsually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It's worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don't buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA's case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it's worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.NVDA data by YChartsAn investor who bought after a -70% still would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.Next, let's move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.Additional Strategic ConsiderationsThe way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it's likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don't have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it's worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn't mean it's uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that's a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I'm sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today's price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as \"price targets\", which imply that I'm predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is normal for NVIDIA's stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.This article was written by Cory Cramer for reference only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938029518,"gmtCreate":1662525189734,"gmtModify":1676537080710,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938029518","repostId":"2265838091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265838091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662512886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265838091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-07 09:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265838091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"His advice might give your portfolio a boost, too.","content":"<div>\n<p>There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-07 09:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265838091","content_text":"There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he is with advice.Whether it's giving job-search tips to new college graduates or calming people's fears during a stock market crash, Buffett never seems short on words of wisdom. And through the years, I've followed a lot of his tips in the course of building my portfolio. Here are a few specific pieces of advice that have served me well and are worth paying attention to.Image source: Getty Images.1. Look for quality, not a bargainSome stocks trade at a hefty price point, so much so that in the past, I've balked at the idea of buying them. But one thing Buffett has always said is that it's important to focus on quality over price.You might have the opportunity to buy shares of a given tech company at $200 apiece while another company's shares trade for $500 apiece. But the $200 stock isn't necessarily the better deal. And so it's better to focus on the businesses you're buying into than the prices they're trading at.Incidentally, these days, many brokerages let you buy shares on a fractional basis. So if you're hesitant to spend a lot on a single share of stock, you don't have to.2. Hold stocks for a long timeBuffett has famously said that if you're unwilling to hold a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't even own it for 10 minutes. And that's advice I've followed since I started buying stocks.Some people think they can strike it rich in the stock market by buying low and selling as quickly as possible. But I'm a firm believer that the best approach is to load up on quality investments and hold them for many years so they can appreciate in value.3. Don't fall victim to peer pressureYears ago, meme stocks weren't a thing. Now, online influencers have the ability to drive stock prices upward or downward.But ultimately, meme stocks are a risky bet, namely because the businesses behind them are often shaky and unreliable. And so rather than buy meme stocks because they're trendy, it's better to focus on quality businesses that are likely to stay strong for years.The same holds true with crypto. Many people have invested in digital currencies over the past few years. But if you're not comfortable doing so because you think cryptocurrency is too speculative, put your money elsewhere. (Incidentally, Buffett is not a fan of crypto. At all.)Learn from one of the greatsIt's easy to look at someone like Warren Buffett and be envious of his success. But the reality is that while he's not going around writing checks to individual investors, he's more than happy to share some of his secrets in the hopes of helping others achieve their financial goals. And so whether you're new to investing or have been at it for years, it pays to keep these points in mind as you build up your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931231919,"gmtCreate":1662463911531,"gmtModify":1676537065639,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful info","listText":"Useful info","text":"Useful info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931231919","repostId":"2265105088","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078864157,"gmtCreate":1657671449979,"gmtModify":1676536042651,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe&nbsp;","listText":"I believe&nbsp;","text":"I believe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078864157","repostId":"1193691775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193691775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657639889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193691775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193691775","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-12 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193691775","content_text":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) investors were reminded of this on July 5.The good news is that the chip shortage may be easing. Prices for used gaming cards have plunged. Young gamers who wanted a graphics card for years can now get one, at list prices and lower.But this good news is also bad news. The new supply, from broken crypto miners, is coming as production falls.  There are reports Nvidia is cutting back orders from its manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM).The result is that NVDA stock, which was at $286/share in April, traded recently below $144/share.Short Term WeaknessDuring the bull market, Nvidia was a ferociously expensive stock. Now it’s just pricey.At its July 5 price, the company’s market cap of $362 billion is still almost 39 times last year’s earnings, and over 13 times last year’s sales of $27 billion.The good news is that underestimates the company’s power. First-quarter revenue came in at$8.3 billion, up 46%from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were also up 49% from a year ago. But costs from the cancelled acquisition of ARM Holdings meant GAAP earnings were down 16%.The problem is that investors buy tomorrow, not yesterday. If prices for gaming chips continue to fall, Nvidia’s list prices will as well. That will cut earnings because a lot of the company’s revenue still comes from gamers.Nvidia is due to report its current quarter on Aug. 24, for the three months ending in July. Analysts currently expect $1.03/share of earnings and$8.11 billion of revenue. Field reports of slowing demand, however, indicate it could fall short. The most recent chip stock to report, Micron Technologies(NASDAQ:MU), gave weak guidance. They’re expecting a storm. Nvidia’s ship is being tossed, too.Long Term StrengthAnalysts continue pounding the table for NVDA stock, even as they cut their price targets.The reason is that lower prices open huge new opportunities. Car makers can now bring those autonomous driving features to the market. Nvidia’s artificial intelligence software can now be offered as a service, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise(NYSE:HPE) bringing it to the network edge. Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL) cloud gaming service, Stadia, may now be able to fulfill its promise with an Nvidia upgrade.Even while edge applications for Nvidia chips slow, like gaming and crypto, the cloud continues to grow. Data centers were the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips in the first quarter. Capital spending from the cloud czars, especially Google, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), remains strong. Lower prices may just mean they’ll buy more Nvidia graphics chips for new applications. Eventually, cloud services at the network center will spur demand for support from the network edge, as prices for things like Meta Network(NASDAQ:FB) headsets come down. Meta, by the way, has been a big buyer of Nvidia chips for its “metaverse” activities.The Bottom Line for NVDA StockBear markets end.When they do, tech stocks will be the first to rise again. Companies like Nvidia make new money-saving ideas practical. They create new markets and growth. This has driven the economy forward for a half-century. It’s not changing.But bear markets also require patience. It’s easy to say, “buy the dip.” The problem right now is many investors have no cash with which to do that. That means the best advice is to hold your nerve.Nvidia may not rise again for several months. It may even go lower. No one is paying 13 times revenue for anything right now. The next few months may be brutal.The snapback, however, when it comes, will be something to behold. You’ll want to behold it from inside the Nvidia tent rather than outside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021233037,"gmtCreate":1653056862029,"gmtModify":1676535216024,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","listText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","text":"Ok won't eat the apple now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021233037","repostId":"2236670897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021239088,"gmtCreate":1653056750744,"gmtModify":1676535215994,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let the bear growls for a while","listText":"Let the bear growls for a while","text":"Let the bear growls for a while","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021239088","repostId":"2236030095","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236030095","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653018088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236030095?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236030095","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL Financial</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec8719446c55ca2119afff7aa944210\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</span></p><p>History shows that when the S&amp;P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.</p><p>Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn&#39;t far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.</p><p>To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.</p><p>So far 61% of individual companies in the S&amp;P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re kind of there, but it hasn&#39;t shown up in the broad index yet,&#34; he said, in a Thursday interview.</p><p>And note, that if the S&amp;P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&amp;P 500 has risen 20% from a low.</p><p>OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?</p><p>There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&amp;P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051788c3944a663c19e8570bcd44348f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>LPL Research</span></p><p>The steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.</p><p>The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. &#34;have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.</p><p>&#34;Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep &#39;up&#39; the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,&#34; Essaye wrote.</p><p>Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn&#39;t the case for the S&amp;P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&amp;P 500 are &#34;behind the curve,&#34; which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSelloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 11:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236030095","content_text":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn't far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.So far 61% of individual companies in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.\"We're kind of there, but it hasn't shown up in the broad index yet,\" he said, in a Thursday interview.And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).LPL ResearchThe steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.The S&P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. \"have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\"Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep 'up' the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,\" Essaye wrote.Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn't the case for the S&P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&P 500 are \"behind the curve,\" which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029992850,"gmtCreate":1652711451070,"gmtModify":1676535146497,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love the optimism&nbsp;","listText":"Love the optimism&nbsp;","text":"Love the optimism","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029992850","repostId":"1185672001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065656633,"gmtCreate":1652190956822,"gmtModify":1676535048723,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least not another doomsday prediction","listText":"At least not another doomsday prediction","text":"At least not another doomsday prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065656633","repostId":"2234660013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065651632,"gmtCreate":1652190847826,"gmtModify":1676535048692,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","listText":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","text":"At least not another doomsday prediction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065651632","repostId":"2234660013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062714613,"gmtCreate":1652107196632,"gmtModify":1676535030841,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there","listText":"Hang in there","text":"Hang in there","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062714613","repostId":"1185194199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185194199","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652107248,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185194199?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185194199","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off conti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185194199","content_text":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.The S&P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. Amazon and Apple were all down more than 3%, while Tesla and Nvidia dipped about 5%.Boeing marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether Chevron which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. Home Depot and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062712945,"gmtCreate":1652107014287,"gmtModify":1676535030787,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there","listText":"Hang in there","text":"Hang in there","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062712945","repostId":"1185194199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185194199","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652107248,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185194199?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185194199","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off conti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Tumbled to New Low for 2022, As All Sectors Dipped Into the Red\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 22:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce1ceffc0ddf07f727c40f44cf09df6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The S&amp;P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.</p><p>Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a>, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> were all down more than 3%, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> dipped about 5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a> marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a> and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185194199","content_text":"Stocks fell sharply Monday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh 52-week low, as the market sell-off continued and traders struggled to find their footing from last week’s big market swings.The S&P 500 traded as low as 4,045.12  on the day, as all sectors dipped into the red.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 477 points, or 1.45%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.15%.Rising rates continued to put pressure on technology names such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet, which fell more than 3% and 2.5%, respectively. Amazon and Apple were all down more than 3%, while Tesla and Nvidia dipped about 5%.Boeing marked the biggest loser in the Dow, falling more than 5% followed by energy bellwether Chevron which slipped 3.7% as U.S. oil futures continued to slide. Home Depot and Walmart remained bright spots in the market, posting gains amid the broader sell-off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061665545,"gmtCreate":1651622739739,"gmtModify":1676534936668,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","listText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","text":"Keep advancing, long AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061665545","repostId":"2232095511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069539922,"gmtCreate":1651307394368,"gmtModify":1676534888442,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","listText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","text":"Easy come, easy go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069539922","repostId":"2231260527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060369130,"gmtCreate":1651103563899,"gmtModify":1676534849582,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Delightful","listText":"Delightful","text":"Delightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060369130","repostId":"1164859165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088770373,"gmtCreate":1650387713153,"gmtModify":1676534711648,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","listText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","text":"Sounding very pessimistic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088770373","repostId":"1134362695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134362695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650382064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134362695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134362695","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA&#39;s volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA&#39;s largest shareholder.</li></ul><p>Executive Summary</p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management&#39;s growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba&#39;s growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn&#39;t come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul&#39;s investment thesis touting Alibaba&#39;s shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and &#34;value for the dollar invested.&#34; Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba&#39;s investors are to its new realities.</p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was &#34;competitive advantage&#34; is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p>Munger also mentions a &#34;higher value of a dollar invested&#34; in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren&#39;t kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol><p>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google &#34;China Lockdown,&#34; and you&#39;ll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don&#39;t seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street&#39;s 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year&#39;s revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn&#39;t for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p>The China e-commerce &#34;CEC&#34; segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba&#39;s revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company&#39;s official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>I don&#39;t believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company&#39;s revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba&#39;s fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba&#39;s business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba&#39;s challenges stem from its inability to manage investors&#39; expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O&#39;Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O&#39;Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba&#39;s share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker&#39;s selloff.</p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank&#39;s loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p>Summary</p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn&#39;t be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its &#34;competitive advantage.&#34; The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-19 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134362695","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.Executive SummaryThis year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.Investment ThesisNews of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and \"value for the dollar invested.\" Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was \"competitive advantage\" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.Munger also mentions a \"higher value of a dollar invested\" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.Revenue TrendsAlibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.The company faces three main headwinds:Macro-economic challengesMaturing Chinese MarketRising CompetitionThe zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google \"China Lockdown,\" and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.The China e-commerce \"CEC\" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.Cash Flow And Share BuybacksFundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.How Loyal Is SoftbankSoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its \"competitive advantage.\" The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9015213830,"gmtCreate":1649484664028,"gmtModify":1676534520280,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More upside for PLTR","listText":"More upside for PLTR","text":"More upside for PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015213830","repostId":"1179777825","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179777825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649469608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179777825?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-09 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179777825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s and Snowflake&#39;s shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies&#39; forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.</li><li>The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.</li><li>Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.</li></ul><p>Elevator Pitch</p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake&#39;s top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.</p><p>How Are SNOW And PLTR&#39;s Stock Performance?</p><p>The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.</p><p><b>Snowflake&#39;s And Palantir&#39;s 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price Performance</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfec436e13ecbd10b4390c8ec9c312b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&amp;P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, <i>Seeking Alpha News</i>articlehighlighted that &#34;Snowflake shares fell sharply&#34; on the day alongside &#34;several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.&#34;</p><p>Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.</p><p>SNOW And PLTR Stock Key Metrics</p><p>Both SNOW&#39;s and PLTR&#39;s forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.</p><p>Starting with Palantir, the company released the company&#39;s Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR&#39;s shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).</p><p>PLTR&#39;s top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company&#39;s robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side&#39;s consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR&#39;s fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir&#39;s total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR&#39;s Q4 2021 results presentation.</p><p>Looking forward, PLTR&#39;s revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and &#34;annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.&#34;</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s near-term profitability guidance didn&#39;t meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street&#39;s consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as per<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. At the <i>Morgan Stanley</i>(MS)Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that &#34;the investments in the product&#34; in 2021 &#34;drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,&#34; and the company is &#34;giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.&#34;</p><p>Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW&#39;s shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake&#39;s stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.</p><p>SNOW&#39;s shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company&#39;s fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake&#39;s management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW&#39;s top line expansion, as the company&#39;s sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that &#34;every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,&#34; but it stressed that &#34;those customers are consuming more&#34; in around half a year&#39;s time.</p><p>In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.</p><p>Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?</p><p>Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.</p><p>A December 2020research report published by <i>Harris Williams</i> classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the &#34;data&#34; sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.</p><p><b>Harris Williams&#39;Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software Sector</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d28544977ca9c17ef60304a8f96c55\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Harris Williams</p><p>In a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a &#34;software company&#34; which builds &#34;digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.&#34; This provides support for Harris Williams&#39; categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.</p><p>In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.</p><p>How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?</p><p>Referring to PLTR&#39;s November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of &#34;data processor.&#34; PLTR emphasized that its platforms &#34;allow organizations to better manage&#34; data &#34;by bringing the right data to the people&#34; and enabling &#34;them to take data-driven decisions&#34; and &#34;conduct sophisticated analytic.&#34;</p><p>In contrast, Snowflake&#39;s cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.</p><p><b>SNOW&#39;s Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics Companies</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced24e78a2353a0f9f8a45e9fab883b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Snowflake</p><p>I touch on the two companies&#39; growth prospects in the long run in the next section.</p><p>What Are Snowflake And Palantir&#39;s Long-Term Outlooks?</p><p>Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.</p><p>Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in <i>CDO Trends</i>. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.</p><p>PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former&#39;s profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.</p><p>According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, Snowflake&#39;s sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir&#39;s top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR&#39;s normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW&#39;s normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.</p><p>SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake&#39;s profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake&#39;s modest profitability is the company&#39;s dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft&#39;s (MSFT) Azure and Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company&#39;s key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company&#39;s competitors and &#34;have a big impact on Snowflake&#39;s path to profitability.&#34; This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.</p><p>On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company&#39;s revenue can be negatively impacted when the government&#39;s budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR&#39;s commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.</p><p>In comparison, Palantir&#39;s government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.</p><p>In a nutshell, both companies&#39; long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.</p><p>Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?</p><p>PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months&#39; Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. Taking into account the difference in the two companies&#39; valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-09 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179777825","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.Elevator PitchPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake's top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.How Are SNOW And PLTR's Stock Performance?The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.Snowflake's And Palantir's 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price PerformanceSeeking AlphaThe shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, Seeking Alpha Newsarticlehighlighted that \"Snowflake shares fell sharply\" on the day alongside \"several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.\"Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.SNOW And PLTR Stock Key MetricsBoth SNOW's and PLTR's forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.Starting with Palantir, the company released the company's Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR's shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).PLTR's top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company's robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side's consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according toS&P Capital IQ.However, Palantir's non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR's fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir's total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR's Q4 2021 results presentation.Looking forward, PLTR's revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and \"annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.\"However, Palantir's near-term profitability guidance didn't meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street's consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as perS&P Capital IQ. At the Morgan Stanley(MS)Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that \"the investments in the product\" in 2021 \"drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,\" and the company is \"giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.\"Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW's shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake's stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.SNOW's shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company's fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake's management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW's top line expansion, as the company's sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that \"every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,\" but it stressed that \"those customers are consuming more\" in around half a year's time.In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.A December 2020research report published by Harris Williams classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the \"data\" sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.Harris Williams'Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software SectorHarris WilliamsIn a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a \"software company\" which builds \"digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.\" This provides support for Harris Williams' categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?Referring to PLTR's November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of \"data processor.\" PLTR emphasized that its platforms \"allow organizations to better manage\" data \"by bringing the right data to the people\" and enabling \"them to take data-driven decisions\" and \"conduct sophisticated analytic.\"In contrast, Snowflake's cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.SNOW's Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics CompaniesSnowflakeI touch on the two companies' growth prospects in the long run in the next section.What Are Snowflake And Palantir's Long-Term Outlooks?Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in CDO Trends. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former's profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, Snowflake's sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir's top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR's normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW's normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake's profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake's modest profitability is the company's dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company's key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company's competitors and \"have a big impact on Snowflake's path to profitability.\" This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company's revenue can be negatively impacted when the government's budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR's commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.In comparison, Palantir's government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.In a nutshell, both companies' long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months' Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according toS&P Capital IQ. Taking into account the difference in the two companies' valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030681276,"gmtCreate":1645708765535,"gmtModify":1676534055849,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold &amp; wait","listText":"Hold &amp; wait","text":"Hold & wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030681276","repostId":"1169064232","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169064232","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645705291,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169064232?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-24 20:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169064232","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alibaba Group today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.Alibaba ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.</p><p>Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.</p><p>The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.</p><p><b>Business Highlights</b></p><p><b>Revenue</b> was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).</p><p><b>Annual active consumers</b> of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.</p><p><b>Income from operations </b>was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.</p><p><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.</p><p><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.</p><p>Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f570ee8813fbb5fa73df304c69d3ec\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group Reported Quarterly Revenue of $38.07 Billion, an Increase of 10% Year-Over-Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-24 20:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.</p><p>Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.</p><p>The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.</p><p><b>Business Highlights</b></p><p><b>Revenue</b> was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).</p><p><b>Annual active consumers</b> of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.</p><p><b>Income from operations </b>was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.</p><p><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.</p><p><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.</p><p>Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f570ee8813fbb5fa73df304c69d3ec\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169064232","content_text":"Alibaba Group today announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55 by 3.92 percent.The company reported quarterly sales of $38.07 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate.Business HighlightsRevenue was RMB242,580 million (US$38,066 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year that was primarily driven by the revenue growth of China commerce segment by 7% year-over-year to RMB172,226 million (US$27,026 million), Cloud segment by 20% year-over-year to RMB19,539 million (US$3,066 million), Local consumer services segment by 27% year-over-year to RMB12,141 million (US$1,905 million) and International commerce segment by 18% year-over year to RMB16,449 million (US$2,581 million).Annual active consumers of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.28 billion for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million and 16 million, respectively.Income from operations was RMB7,068 million (US$1,109 million), a decrease of 86% year-over-year, which included a RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) impairment of goodwill in relation to Digital media and entertainment segment. Excluding this impairment of goodwill, income from operations would have been RMB32,209 million (US$5,054 million), a decrease of 34% year-over-year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to our increased investments in growth initiatives and our increased spending for user growth, as well as our support to merchants.Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB20,429 million (US$3,206 million) and net income was RMB19,224 million (US$3,017 million), showing year-over-year decreases of 74% and 75%, respectively, primarily due to the impairment of goodwill of RMB25,141 million (US$3,945 million) and the decrease in net gains arising from the changes in fair value of our equity investments, both of which we excluded from our non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP net income was RMB44,624 million (US$7,002 million), a decrease of 25% year-over-year.Diluted earnings per ADS was RMB7.51 (US$1.18) and diluted earnings per share was RMB0.94 (US$0.15 or HK$1.15). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.87 (US$2.65), a decrease of 23% year-over-year and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was RMB2.11 (US$0.33 or HK$2.58), a decrease of 23% year-over-year.Shares of Alibaba slid 0.38% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018478454,"gmtCreate":1649084304376,"gmtModify":1676534447593,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Long&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Long&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Long","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1081d3e777bc16778cec557bb6d464b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018478454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061665545,"gmtCreate":1651622739739,"gmtModify":1676534936668,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","listText":"Keep advancing, long AMD","text":"Keep advancing, long AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061665545","repostId":"2232095511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014810208,"gmtCreate":1649638240635,"gmtModify":1676534541777,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very optimistic prediction&nbsp;","listText":"Very optimistic prediction&nbsp;","text":"Very optimistic prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014810208","repostId":"1187763771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187763771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649560342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187763771?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-10 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187763771","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding theCyber Rodeo event held this week.All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over th","content":"<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Tesla Stock Be In 2030? Analyst Weighs In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-10 11:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/04/26557373/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-2030-analyst-weighs-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187763771","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.TSLAshares barely budged despite all the hype surrounding the Cyber Rodeo event held this week. All the same, one analyst is confident that the stock will hit top gear and keep rising over the next decade.What Happened: Tesla stock will go from a market capitalization of a little over $1 trillion currently to $10 trillion by 2030, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu said in a tweet. The analyst said the Tesla growth story is slowly taking hold and the company is on track to see unprecedented scale and capture 20% of the auto market.Ferragu, however, cautioned that his estimate is neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation, leaving it open to investors to decide for themselves.The analyst's 2030 look ahead assumes 20 million units of vehicle sales and an average selling price of $35,000, translating to vehicle sales of $700 billion. About $1.5 billion will likely come from insurance, $35 billion-$70 billion from full-self driving software and $250 billion from energy, with real AI providing option value.The total 2030 revenue will likely come in at $1 trillion, the analyst estimates. Applying a multiple of 8-10 times on estimated sales, the company's valuation will gallop to about $10 trillion, he added.Where Will This Leave Tesla Stock: Tesla's outstanding share count is currently at 1.03 billion. If the share count remains unchanged, the per-share value of Tesla would be around $9,710.Tesla detractors and skeptical investors may debate the credibility of Ferragu's model. Nevertheless, the company is poised to see superlative growth over the coming years. Tesla, according to many sell-side analysts, is not able to keep pace with the surging demand for its vehicles.It may now have found a solution with the two more Gigas, in Berlin and Texas, coming online. Loup Fund analyst Gene Munster expects the company to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023.Tesla closed Friday's session down 3% at $1,025.49.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"content":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality.","text":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality.","html":"yes. 10 mil by 2030 will be a great achievement. 20 mil is just a far away dream that's detached from reality."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088770373,"gmtCreate":1650387713153,"gmtModify":1676534711648,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","listText":"Sounding very pessimistic&nbsp;","text":"Sounding very pessimistic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088770373","repostId":"1134362695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134362695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650382064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134362695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134362695","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA&#39;s volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA&#39;s largest shareholder.</li></ul><p>Executive Summary</p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management&#39;s growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba&#39;s growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn&#39;t come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul&#39;s investment thesis touting Alibaba&#39;s shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and &#34;value for the dollar invested.&#34; Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba&#39;s investors are to its new realities.</p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was &#34;competitive advantage&#34; is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p>Munger also mentions a &#34;higher value of a dollar invested&#34; in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren&#39;t kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol><p>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google &#34;China Lockdown,&#34; and you&#39;ll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don&#39;t seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street&#39;s 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year&#39;s revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn&#39;t for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p>The China e-commerce &#34;CEC&#34; segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba&#39;s revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company&#39;s official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>I don&#39;t believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company&#39;s revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba&#39;s fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba&#39;s business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba&#39;s challenges stem from its inability to manage investors&#39; expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O&#39;Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O&#39;Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba&#39;s share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker&#39;s selloff.</p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank&#39;s loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p>Summary</p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn&#39;t be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its &#34;competitive advantage.&#34; The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-19 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134362695","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.Executive SummaryThis year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.Investment ThesisNews of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and \"value for the dollar invested.\" Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was \"competitive advantage\" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.Munger also mentions a \"higher value of a dollar invested\" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.Revenue TrendsAlibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.The company faces three main headwinds:Macro-economic challengesMaturing Chinese MarketRising CompetitionThe zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google \"China Lockdown,\" and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.The China e-commerce \"CEC\" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.Cash Flow And Share BuybacksFundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.How Loyal Is SoftbankSoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its \"competitive advantage.\" The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034395666,"gmtCreate":1647788318779,"gmtModify":1676534265863,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know&nbsp;","listText":"Good to know&nbsp;","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034395666","repostId":"2220430742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090922522,"gmtCreate":1643069463145,"gmtModify":1676533770591,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gloomy days ahead&nbsp;","listText":"Gloomy days ahead&nbsp;","text":"Gloomy days ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090922522","repostId":"1153487783","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153487783","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643036174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153487783?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 22:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153487783","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the st","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant&#39;s shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his rating on the company&#39;s stock.</li><li>Uerkwitz took his view of Netflix (NFLX) to hold from buy, saying there is &#34;too much uncertainty in the near term&#34; surrounding the company following its disappointing quarterly report and outlook last week. On Thursday, Netflix (NFLX) said it added 8.28 million new subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2021, which fell short of its earlier forecasts of 8.5 million subscriber additions. Netflix (NFLX) also said it expects to add just 2.5 million subscribers during the first quarter of this year.</li><li>Those numbers did Netflix (NFLX) no favors on Wall Street, as investors drove the company&#39;s shares down almost 22% on Friday.</li><li>On Monday, Uerkwitz joined in what was a mostly negative chorus in response to Netflix&#39;s (NFLX) subscriber numbers, saying that after &#34;thinking through potential scenarios for what happens next&#34; for the company, it appears Netflix&#39;s (NFLX) spending on new content could be coming to a head.</li><li>&#34;Netflix subscribers are going nowhere,&#34; Uerkwitz said. &#34;However, the cost of acquiring the incremental subscriber has likely become too high.&#34;</li><li>Ueurwitz added that it seems like Netflix (NFLX) can&#39;t just rely on creating a sense of prestige, or exclusivity, around its own original content to drive multitudes of new subscribers to its service.</li><li>&#34;The best content slate we&#39;ve seen is doing little to drive [subscriber] growth,&#34; Uerkwitz said. &#34;If slower subscriber growth is the new normal, we would need to see a change in content [and] captial allocation coupled with a focus on new revenue streams to leverage the large user base [and] content library.&#34;</li><li>Over the weekend, TV ratings-measurement company Nielsen(NYSE:NLSN)released data from its &#34;Streaming Unwrapped 2021&#34; report, which showed Netflix (NFLX) claiming the top nine slots for original programming streamed online. The show<i>Lucifer</i>, topped the chart,with 18.34 billion minutes streamed last year.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Slumps Another 6%, Jefferies Says Content Alone Isn't Cutting It for TV Streamer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 22:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant's shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790719-netflix-slumps-another-6-jefferies-says-content-alone-isnt-cutting-it-for-tv-streamer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153487783","content_text":"Investors sentiments about Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)failed to soften over the weekend as they sent the streaming TV giant's shares down more than 6%, Monday, and Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkiwitz cut his rating on the company's stock.Uerkwitz took his view of Netflix (NFLX) to hold from buy, saying there is \"too much uncertainty in the near term\" surrounding the company following its disappointing quarterly report and outlook last week. On Thursday, Netflix (NFLX) said it added 8.28 million new subscribers during the fourth quarter of 2021, which fell short of its earlier forecasts of 8.5 million subscriber additions. Netflix (NFLX) also said it expects to add just 2.5 million subscribers during the first quarter of this year.Those numbers did Netflix (NFLX) no favors on Wall Street, as investors drove the company's shares down almost 22% on Friday.On Monday, Uerkwitz joined in what was a mostly negative chorus in response to Netflix's (NFLX) subscriber numbers, saying that after \"thinking through potential scenarios for what happens next\" for the company, it appears Netflix's (NFLX) spending on new content could be coming to a head.\"Netflix subscribers are going nowhere,\" Uerkwitz said. \"However, the cost of acquiring the incremental subscriber has likely become too high.\"Ueurwitz added that it seems like Netflix (NFLX) can't just rely on creating a sense of prestige, or exclusivity, around its own original content to drive multitudes of new subscribers to its service.\"The best content slate we've seen is doing little to drive [subscriber] growth,\" Uerkwitz said. \"If slower subscriber growth is the new normal, we would need to see a change in content [and] captial allocation coupled with a focus on new revenue streams to leverage the large user base [and] content library.\"Over the weekend, TV ratings-measurement company Nielsen(NYSE:NLSN)released data from its \"Streaming Unwrapped 2021\" report, which showed Netflix (NFLX) claiming the top nine slots for original programming streamed online. The showLucifer, topped the chart,with 18.34 billion minutes streamed last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069539922,"gmtCreate":1651307394368,"gmtModify":1676534888442,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","listText":"Easy come,&nbsp;easy go","text":"Easy come, easy go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069539922","repostId":"2231260527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095010809,"gmtCreate":1644766133372,"gmtModify":1676533959793,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful knowledge&nbsp;","listText":"Useful knowledge&nbsp;","text":"Useful knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095010809","repostId":"2211524630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002640125,"gmtCreate":1642001507070,"gmtModify":1676533670754,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative&nbsp;","listText":"Informative&nbsp;","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002640125","repostId":"1114732808","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021239088,"gmtCreate":1653056750744,"gmtModify":1676535215994,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let the bear growls for a while","listText":"Let the bear growls for a while","text":"Let the bear growls for a while","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021239088","repostId":"2236030095","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236030095","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653018088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236030095?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236030095","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL Financial</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec8719446c55ca2119afff7aa944210\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</span></p><p>History shows that when the S&amp;P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.</p><p>Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn&#39;t far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.</p><p>To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.</p><p>So far 61% of individual companies in the S&amp;P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re kind of there, but it hasn&#39;t shown up in the broad index yet,&#34; he said, in a Thursday interview.</p><p>And note, that if the S&amp;P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&amp;P 500 has risen 20% from a low.</p><p>OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?</p><p>There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&amp;P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051788c3944a663c19e8570bcd44348f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"550\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>LPL Research</span></p><p>The steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.</p><p>The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. &#34;have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.</p><p>&#34;Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep &#39;up&#39; the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,&#34; Essaye wrote.</p><p>Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn&#39;t the case for the S&amp;P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&amp;P 500 are &#34;behind the curve,&#34; which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Selloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSelloff Puts S&P 500 on Bear Market's Doorstep. If History Is a Guide, There's More Pain Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 11:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/selloff-puts-s-p-500-on-bear-markets-doorstep-if-history-is-a-guide-theres-more-pain-ahead-11653002466?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236030095","content_text":"Average bear market lasts a little under a year: LPL FinancialJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesHistory shows that when the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it tends to stay awhile.Back-to-back drops left the large-cap benchmark  down 18.7% from its Jan. 3 record finish on Thursday, closing at 3,900.97. A fall of 20% from a recent peak is the traditional definition of a bear market. That would require a close below 3,837.25, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The Dow Jones Industrial Average  isn't far behind, ending at 31, 253.13, 15.1% below its Jan. 4 record close. A finish below 29,439.72 would put the blue-chip gauge into a bear market.To be sure, many investors and analysts see that 20% definition as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have been behaving in bearlike fashion for weeks.So far 61% of individual companies in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory, observed Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.\"We're kind of there, but it hasn't shown up in the broad index yet,\" he said, in a Thursday interview.And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold in the coming days, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market ends once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.OK, so what does history say about what happens once a bear market begins?There have been 17 bear --- or near-bear--- markets since World War II, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a Wednesday note. Generally speaking, the S&P 500 has had further to fall once it begins. And, he said, bear markets have, on average, lasted about a year, producing an average peak-to-trough decline of just shy of 30%. (see table below).LPL ResearchThe steepest fall, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 57%, occurred in the 17 months that marked the 17-month bear market that accompanied the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The longest was a 48.2% drop that ran for nearly 21 months in 1973-74. The shortest was the nearly 34% drop that took place over just 23 trading sessions as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a global rout that bottomed out on March 23, 2020, and marked the start of the current bull market.The S&P 500 neared bear territory last week before a strong Friday-the-13th bounce that halved its weekly losses. Another strong bounce was seen Tuesday, but gains were more than erased in the following session after downbeat results from retailing giant Target Corp. underlined fears that inflation pressures were beginning to take a toll on margins.The earnings from Target and, a day earlier, Walmart Inc. \"have me concerned that bad things may be starting to happen in the U.S. economy,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.\"Namely, that the length of high inflation has infiltrated the lower income cohorts of the economy, and they are now reacting, quickly. And as inflation stays high and the economy slows, that will creep 'up' the income distribution, and the concern is the margin issues TGT and WMT are facing will spread to other parts of the retail space and the market more broadly,\" Essaye wrote.Mullaney at Boston Partners worries that Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up to the danger. While earnings expectations for companies in emerging markets and the broader developed-markets indexes have turned down, that isn't the case for the S&P 500, he noted. That indicates that the analysts covering the S&P 500 are \"behind the curve,\" which could be one of the last shoes that has to drop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010218261,"gmtCreate":1648392596697,"gmtModify":1676534333427,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Enlightening.&nbsp;","listText":"Enlightening.&nbsp;","text":"Enlightening.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010218261","repostId":"2221071429","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010094470,"gmtCreate":1648198934394,"gmtModify":1676534316357,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reassuring&nbsp;","listText":"Reassuring&nbsp;","text":"Reassuring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010094470","repostId":"2222007132","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032551697,"gmtCreate":1647406335685,"gmtModify":1676534226102,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth some thoughts","listText":"Worth some thoughts","text":"Worth some thoughts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032551697","repostId":"2219220927","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096318280,"gmtCreate":1644300539065,"gmtModify":1676533910453,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will pay attention to these stocks","listText":"Will pay attention to these stocks","text":"Will pay attention to these stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096318280","repostId":"1189839329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004730484,"gmtCreate":1642687985260,"gmtModify":1676533735512,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Accumulate during market correction&nbsp;","listText":"Accumulate during market correction&nbsp;","text":"Accumulate during market correction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004730484","repostId":"1190271564","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190271564","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642663422,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190271564?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190271564","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These Berkshire Hathaway-backed winners could supercharge your portfolio.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history&#39;s most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of the company in 1965, that position would now be worth nearly $81 million.</p><p>The Oracle of Omaha&#39;s knack for finding high-quality long-term investment opportunities has led to market-crushing results, and his storied performance means the investing world tends to keep a close eye on his company&#39;s holdings. Let&#39;s take a closer look at five top stocks backed by Berkshire Hathaway that are worth buying and holding for the long term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99bd55ae86722cb44e242a3e8fcd151\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.</span></p><p><b>1. Apple</b></p><p>With <b>Apple</b>&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price having surged roughly 32.1% over the last year and the company currently sporting a market capitalization of more than $2.76 trillion, it&#39;s not unreasonable to look at the stock with a bit of a cautious eye. On the other hand, there&#39;s basically never been a bad time for<i>long-term</i>investors to buy the stock in the company&#39;s history.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807818ed8a5e4c2574220b38b5cf3a64\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p>Apple stands as the largest stock holding in the Berkshire portfolio, by far. Based on the last 13F filing from Buffett&#39;s company, the iPhone-maker accounts for nearly 43% of the investment conglomerate&#39;s stock holdings. That signifies an incredible vote of confidence from the modern era&#39;s most successful investor.</p><p>Between its market-leading mobile hardware and fast-growing software and services ecosystem, Apple&#39;s core businesses continue to look very strong, and it&#39;s likely that the company will also score wins in some exciting new fields. The California-based tech giant is already a leader in the wearable technology space, and it has huge opportunities in augmented reality hardware, autonomous electric vehicles, and other emerging product categories. The recent run-up in valuation means investors may want todollar-cost averageinto Apple stock, but the company looks well-positioned to continue growing over the long term.</p><p><b>2. Verizon</b></p><p>With a multi-billion-dollar investment in the fourth quarter of 2020, Berkshire Hathaway quickly made <b>Verizon Communications</b> (NYSE:VZ) one of its largest stock holdings. Internet communications are at the heart of modern business operations, and the telecom giant&#39;s top-rated service and infrastructure advantages should help it continue to be a category leader.</p><p>Verizon has been spending big to secure spectrum band and build out infrastructure for5G, but it&#39;s still in the early stages of benefiting from the rollout of the next-generation network technology. In addition to offering consumers a major leap forward with upload and download speeds, Verizon&#39;s 5G service will likely also help boost sales and earnings in the enterprise market.</p><p>With shares trading at roughly 10 times this year&#39;s expected earnings and sporting a 4.8% dividend yield, Verizon stock continues to look attractively valued. Investors even have a chance to buy the stock at prices lower than Berkshire got in at.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30d6f848f83c57969cb29b9d24b3d1b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>VZ DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><b>3. Snowflake</b></p><p>As a cloud software-as-a-service stock that trades at lofty price-to-sales multiple,<b>Snowflake</b> (NYSE:SNOW) is one of the more unusual companies in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While the investment conglomerate has gradually been shifting more of its portfolio weight toward the technology sector, it&#39;s still pretty eye-catching to see Buffett get behind a company that trades at roughly 83 times this year&#39;s expected sales.</p><p>It&#39;s clear that the Oracle of Omaha and the investment team at Berkshire see something special in the data warehousing and analytics player. Snowflake&#39;s platform allows data to be gathered and analyzed from otherwise walled-off sources, enabling applications to have quick and easy access to a much wider spectrum of valuable information. The company offers category-leading service in its niche, and with more customers joining its platform and bringing along valuable data, it&#39;s benefiting from a network effect that could produce a powerful long-term moat.</p><p><b>4. Amazon</b></p><p>Perhaps more so than any other company,<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN) is built to win the future. The company&#39;s core e-commerce and cloud infrastructure businesses look poised for strong growth over the long term as these industries continue to grow, and its core business pillars should provide the foundation for new growth bets that help the company continue to expand.</p><p>With a market cap of more than $1.6 trillion, Amazon is already a massive company, but it still has plenty of room for growth over the long term. The company&#39;s strength in e-commerce and cloud services has helped it rapidly build its position in the digital advertising market, and Amazon&#39;s excellent collection of resources and proven penchant for innovation suggest that it will be able to continue scoring wins in new categories that drive growth and complement its existing businesses.</p><p><b>5. Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p>If you want to invest like Buffett, why limit yourself to picking just a handful of stocks in the Berkshire portfolio? Particularly when you can buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway directly and get exposure to all of the stocks in the company&#39;s portfolio, its subsidiaries, and its real estate, insurance, and energy businesses. In addition to Apple, Verizon, Amazon, and Snowflake, Berkshire Hathaway also owns substantial stakes in companies including <b>Bank of America</b>,<b>American Express</b>,<b>Coca-Cola</b>, and other industry-leading names.</p><p>Even after buying back more than $20 billion worth of its own stock last year, the investment conglomerate has a massive pool of resources and ended its third quarter with a record $149 billion in cash on the books. Owning Berkshire Hathaway stock means that when Buffett and his team of analysts go shopping with that money, your own portfolio gets exposure to those buys before they&#39;re made known to the public.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $3,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 15:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history's most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AMZN":"亚马逊","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/got-3000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190271564","content_text":"Warren Buffett stands atop the pantheon of history's most successful investors. If you were lucky enough to own a $3,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) when he took control of the company in 1965, that position would now be worth nearly $81 million.The Oracle of Omaha's knack for finding high-quality long-term investment opportunities has led to market-crushing results, and his storied performance means the investing world tends to keep a close eye on his company's holdings. Let's take a closer look at five top stocks backed by Berkshire Hathaway that are worth buying and holding for the long term.IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.1. AppleWith Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price having surged roughly 32.1% over the last year and the company currently sporting a market capitalization of more than $2.76 trillion, it's not unreasonable to look at the stock with a bit of a cautious eye. On the other hand, there's basically never been a bad time forlong-terminvestors to buy the stock in the company's history.AAPL DATA BY YCHARTSApple stands as the largest stock holding in the Berkshire portfolio, by far. Based on the last 13F filing from Buffett's company, the iPhone-maker accounts for nearly 43% of the investment conglomerate's stock holdings. That signifies an incredible vote of confidence from the modern era's most successful investor.Between its market-leading mobile hardware and fast-growing software and services ecosystem, Apple's core businesses continue to look very strong, and it's likely that the company will also score wins in some exciting new fields. The California-based tech giant is already a leader in the wearable technology space, and it has huge opportunities in augmented reality hardware, autonomous electric vehicles, and other emerging product categories. The recent run-up in valuation means investors may want todollar-cost averageinto Apple stock, but the company looks well-positioned to continue growing over the long term.2. VerizonWith a multi-billion-dollar investment in the fourth quarter of 2020, Berkshire Hathaway quickly made Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) one of its largest stock holdings. Internet communications are at the heart of modern business operations, and the telecom giant's top-rated service and infrastructure advantages should help it continue to be a category leader.Verizon has been spending big to secure spectrum band and build out infrastructure for5G, but it's still in the early stages of benefiting from the rollout of the next-generation network technology. In addition to offering consumers a major leap forward with upload and download speeds, Verizon's 5G service will likely also help boost sales and earnings in the enterprise market.With shares trading at roughly 10 times this year's expected earnings and sporting a 4.8% dividend yield, Verizon stock continues to look attractively valued. Investors even have a chance to buy the stock at prices lower than Berkshire got in at.VZ DATA BY YCHARTS.3. SnowflakeAs a cloud software-as-a-service stock that trades at lofty price-to-sales multiple,Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) is one of the more unusual companies in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. While the investment conglomerate has gradually been shifting more of its portfolio weight toward the technology sector, it's still pretty eye-catching to see Buffett get behind a company that trades at roughly 83 times this year's expected sales.It's clear that the Oracle of Omaha and the investment team at Berkshire see something special in the data warehousing and analytics player. Snowflake's platform allows data to be gathered and analyzed from otherwise walled-off sources, enabling applications to have quick and easy access to a much wider spectrum of valuable information. The company offers category-leading service in its niche, and with more customers joining its platform and bringing along valuable data, it's benefiting from a network effect that could produce a powerful long-term moat.4. AmazonPerhaps more so than any other company,Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) is built to win the future. The company's core e-commerce and cloud infrastructure businesses look poised for strong growth over the long term as these industries continue to grow, and its core business pillars should provide the foundation for new growth bets that help the company continue to expand.With a market cap of more than $1.6 trillion, Amazon is already a massive company, but it still has plenty of room for growth over the long term. The company's strength in e-commerce and cloud services has helped it rapidly build its position in the digital advertising market, and Amazon's excellent collection of resources and proven penchant for innovation suggest that it will be able to continue scoring wins in new categories that drive growth and complement its existing businesses.5. Berkshire HathawayIf you want to invest like Buffett, why limit yourself to picking just a handful of stocks in the Berkshire portfolio? Particularly when you can buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway directly and get exposure to all of the stocks in the company's portfolio, its subsidiaries, and its real estate, insurance, and energy businesses. In addition to Apple, Verizon, Amazon, and Snowflake, Berkshire Hathaway also owns substantial stakes in companies including Bank of America,American Express,Coca-Cola, and other industry-leading names.Even after buying back more than $20 billion worth of its own stock last year, the investment conglomerate has a massive pool of resources and ended its third quarter with a record $149 billion in cash on the books. Owning Berkshire Hathaway stock means that when Buffett and his team of analysts go shopping with that money, your own portfolio gets exposure to those buys before they're made known to the public.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VZ":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962410917,"gmtCreate":1669821938739,"gmtModify":1676538250633,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4231104f06431443cc427421883a6d8","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962410917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}