闲人老马 personal page - To The Moon

闲人老马

闲人老马

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01-08 07:12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

01-08 06:54

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

01-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

01-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2024-12-31

$TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT$

2024-12-31

$TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL$

2024-08-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2024-07-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2023-09-28

Yes

@Here4money:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ In the world of automotive innovation, Tesla stands as a trailblazer. The company's relentless pursuit of a sustainable future and its pioneering electric vehicles have not only reshaped the industry but have also laid the foundation for a cleaner, more efficient tomorrow. **Electrifying Transportation:** Tesla's core mission revolves around electrifying transportation. By producing electric vehicles (EVs), they are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, mitigating climate change, and ushering in a future where mobility is environmentally responsible. This commitment aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable living. **Exceptional EVs:** Tesla's electric cars, including the Model S, Mod

2023-09-20

[开心]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-09-11

[开心] [开心] [开心]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-09-11

[开心]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ go to moon

2022-07-29

$苹果(AAPL)$great

2022-07-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$great

2022-07-14

Sure

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$650

2022-05-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$Yes ,sure

2022-05-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$yes

2022-05-07

Buy when others go

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03dfda6ce879d1fd874648b76dbb28e6","width":"1170","height":"1259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388597686944168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4090129223813410","authorId":"4090129223813410","name":"朱文明","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090129223813410","authorIdStr":"4090129223813410"},"content":"Simply looking at the business level, the energy storage business is not a big business.","text":"Simply looking at the business level, the energy storage business is not a big 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400.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20250103 400.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0419a2422f3d82af01df6613d074a2","width":"1434","height":"1340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387249843921288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387249567924600,"gmtCreate":1735584799033,"gmtModify":1735595562461,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20250103 465.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e07193cff374a0a6da8d5b7536b075","width":"1434","height":"1340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387249567924600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336024247914640,"gmtCreate":1723075019042,"gmtModify":1723075023940,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc77ac84175394833c2d54b8a2003dd5","width":"1600","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336024247914640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323435924279616,"gmtCreate":1719972857532,"gmtModify":1719972866165,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27f0e7d1fad852934c45ddb4521eb88","width":"1290","height":"1173"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323435924279616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":224652237647944,"gmtCreate":1695855819578,"gmtModify":1695855823883,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/224652237647944","repostId":"224606952738848","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":224606952738848,"gmtCreate":1695844596785,"gmtModify":1695844676147,"author":{"id":"4089431491586890","authorId":"4089431491586890","name":"Here4money","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133ae8407a355e8648e39af598bae4bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089431491586890","authorIdStr":"4089431491586890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> In the world of automotive innovation, Tesla stands as a trailblazer. The company's relentless pursuit of a sustainable future and its pioneering electric vehicles have not only reshaped the industry but have also laid the foundation for a cleaner, more efficient tomorrow. **Electrifying Transportation:** Tesla's core mission revolves around electrifying transportation. By producing electric vehicles (EVs), they are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, mitigating climate change, and ushering in a future where mobility is environmentally responsible. This commitment aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable living. **Exceptional EVs:** Tesla's electric cars, including the Model S, Mod","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> In the world of automotive innovation, Tesla stands as a trailblazer. The company's relentless pursuit of a sustainable future and its pioneering electric vehicles have not only reshaped the industry but have also laid the foundation for a cleaner, more efficient tomorrow. **Electrifying Transportation:** Tesla's core mission revolves around electrifying transportation. By producing electric vehicles (EVs), they are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, mitigating climate change, and ushering in a future where mobility is environmentally responsible. This commitment aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable living. **Exceptional EVs:** Tesla's electric cars, including the Model S, Mod","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ In the world of automotive innovation, Tesla stands as a trailblazer. The company's relentless pursuit of a sustainable future and its pioneering electric vehicles have not only reshaped the industry but have also laid the foundation for a cleaner, more efficient tomorrow. **Electrifying Transportation:** Tesla's core mission revolves around electrifying transportation. By producing electric vehicles (EVs), they are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, mitigating climate change, and ushering in a future where mobility is environmentally responsible. This commitment aligns with global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable living. **Exceptional EVs:** Tesla's electric cars, including the Model S, Mod","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/224606952738848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221967860756552,"gmtCreate":1695218729151,"gmtModify":1695218733352,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/221967860756552","repostId":"2368981156","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2368981156","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1695176935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2368981156?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-20 10:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉电动皮卡或已准备大批量生产 有更多生产设备运抵工厂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2368981156","media":"TechWeb.com.cn","summary":"而从外媒最新的报道来看，特斯拉已在7月份开始生产的电动皮卡Cybertruck，似乎也在准备大批量生产，已有更多的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂。外媒是在当地时间周一公布在社交媒体上的航拍视频中，发现有电动皮卡Cybertruck的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂的。由于汽车生产线需要大量的设备，一条完整的生产线建成也需要一定的时间，特斯拉得克萨斯超级工厂电动皮卡生产线的设备，开始安装也有了一段时间。","content":"<html><body><article><p>9月20日消息，据外媒报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>2019年11月份推出的电动皮卡Cybertruck，计划在今年晚些时候开始交付，近一段时间在美国多地被目睹，也出现在了特斯拉新安装到位的第50000个超级充电桩充电。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20230920102855108v152vrdehsz8jo1\"/><p>外媒此前的报道显示，计划今年晚些时候开始交付的电动皮卡Cybertruck，7月份就已开始在特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的超级工厂生产，上月底有消息称已经生产了100辆。</p><p>而从外媒最新的报道来看，特斯拉已在7月份开始生产的电动皮卡Cybertruck，似乎也在准备大批量生产，已有更多的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂。</p><p>外媒是在当地时间周一公布在社交媒体上的航拍视频中，发现有电动皮卡Cybertruck的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂的。在航拍视频中，装载工业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>的半挂卡车出现在了厂区内，起重机正在卸货。</p><p>在起重机正在卸载的两台工业机器人的外包装上，有“CT Zone X”字样的标签，航拍者认为这是在暗示是Cybertruck生产线的设备，指明了安装的区域。</p><p>此外，在航拍视频中，还出现了5辆Cybertruck，其中3辆在碰撞测试区域内。在此前的航拍中，也曾有两辆Cybertruck停放在得克萨斯超级工厂的碰撞实验室附近，当时就有消息称特斯拉可能是自己进行碰撞测试，获得更多这一辆电动汽车在碰撞测试中的表现数据，就像美国国家公路交通安全管理局进行的测试一样。</p><p>由于汽车生产线需要大量的设备，一条完整的生产线建成也需要一定的时间，特斯拉得克萨斯超级工厂电动皮卡生产线的设备，开始安装也有了一段时间。在7月19日发布的二季度财报中，他们就披露在安装相关的生产设备。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉电动皮卡或已准备大批量生产 有更多生产设备运抵工厂</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉电动皮卡或已准备大批量生产 有更多生产设备运抵工厂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-20 10:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230920102855838d31b7&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月20日消息，据外媒报道，特斯拉2019年11月份推出的电动皮卡Cybertruck，计划在今年晚些时候开始交付，近一段时间在美国多地被目睹，也出现在了特斯拉新安装到位的第50000个超级充电桩充电。外媒此前的报道显示，计划今年晚些时候开始交付的电动皮卡Cybertruck，7月份就已开始在特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的超级工厂生产，上月底有消息称已经生产了100辆。而从外媒最新的报道来看，特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230920102855838d31b7&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc 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DIS"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230920102855838d31b7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2368981156","content_text":"9月20日消息，据外媒报道，特斯拉2019年11月份推出的电动皮卡Cybertruck，计划在今年晚些时候开始交付，近一段时间在美国多地被目睹，也出现在了特斯拉新安装到位的第50000个超级充电桩充电。外媒此前的报道显示，计划今年晚些时候开始交付的电动皮卡Cybertruck，7月份就已开始在特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的超级工厂生产，上月底有消息称已经生产了100辆。而从外媒最新的报道来看，特斯拉已在7月份开始生产的电动皮卡Cybertruck，似乎也在准备大批量生产，已有更多的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂。外媒是在当地时间周一公布在社交媒体上的航拍视频中，发现有电动皮卡Cybertruck的生产设备运抵得克萨斯超级工厂的。在航拍视频中，装载工业机器人的半挂卡车出现在了厂区内，起重机正在卸货。在起重机正在卸载的两台工业机器人的外包装上，有“CT Zone X”字样的标签，航拍者认为这是在暗示是Cybertruck生产线的设备，指明了安装的区域。此外，在航拍视频中，还出现了5辆Cybertruck，其中3辆在碰撞测试区域内。在此前的航拍中，也曾有两辆Cybertruck停放在得克萨斯超级工厂的碰撞实验室附近，当时就有消息称特斯拉可能是自己进行碰撞测试，获得更多这一辆电动汽车在碰撞测试中的表现数据，就像美国国家公路交通安全管理局进行的测试一样。由于汽车生产线需要大量的设备，一条完整的生产线建成也需要一定的时间，特斯拉得克萨斯超级工厂电动皮卡生产线的设备，开始安装也有了一段时间。在7月19日发布的二季度财报中，他们就披露在安装相关的生产设备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":218720411222152,"gmtCreate":1694424376328,"gmtModify":1694424380512,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/218720411222152","repostId":"2366318304","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2366318304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1694420476,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2366318304?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-11 16:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大行评级｜大摩：上调特斯拉评级至“增持” 目标价400美元 列为首选","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2366318304","media":"格隆汇资讯","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发布研报，将将特斯拉评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，12-18个月目标价上调60%至400美元，为华尔街最高目标价，并取代法拉利列为该行的“首选”。分析师预计，特斯拉用于训练自动驾驶汽车人工智能模型的超级计算机“Dojo”可能会给其带来“非对称优势”，并使其总市值增加近6000亿美元，增幅达76%。Dojo可以开辟新的可寻址市场，远远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Adam Jonas发布研报，将将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，12-18个月目标价上调60%至400美元，为华尔街最高目标价，并取代<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>列为该行的“首选”。分析师预计，特斯拉用于训练自动驾驶汽车人工智能模型的超级计算机“Dojo”可能会给其带来“非对称优势”，并使其总市值增加近6000亿美元，增幅达76%。Dojo可以开辟新的可寻址市场，远远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围。分析师将特斯拉网络服务业务的收入预期从之前的1570亿美元上调至2040年的3350亿美元，预计到2040年，该部门将占特斯拉核心盈利的60%以上，比2030年增长近一倍，这一增长主要得益于该行在第三方车队授权方面看到的新机遇以及ARPU(每用户每月平均收入)的增加。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大行评级｜大摩：上调特斯拉评级至“增持” 目标价400美元 列为首选</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大行评级｜大摩：上调特斯拉评级至“增持” 目标价400美元 列为首选\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-11 16:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023091116212183d6e66a&s=b><strong>格隆汇资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发布研报，将将特斯拉评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，12-18个月目标价上调60%至400美元，为华尔街最高目标价，并取代法拉利列为该行的“首选”。分析师预计，特斯拉用于训练自动驾驶汽车人工智能模型的超级计算机“Dojo”可能会给其带来“非对称优势”，并使其总市值增加近6000亿美元，增幅达76%。Dojo可以开辟新的可寻址市场，远远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023091116212183d6e66a&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023091116212183d6e66a&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2366318304","content_text":"摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发布研报，将将特斯拉评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，12-18个月目标价上调60%至400美元，为华尔街最高目标价，并取代法拉利列为该行的“首选”。分析师预计，特斯拉用于训练自动驾驶汽车人工智能模型的超级计算机“Dojo”可能会给其带来“非对称优势”，并使其总市值增加近6000亿美元，增幅达76%。Dojo可以开辟新的可寻址市场，远远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围。分析师将特斯拉网络服务业务的收入预期从之前的1570亿美元上调至2040年的3350亿美元，预计到2040年，该部门将占特斯拉核心盈利的60%以上，比2030年增长近一倍，这一增长主要得益于该行在第三方车队授权方面看到的新机遇以及ARPU(每用户每月平均收入)的增加。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":218720103927976,"gmtCreate":1694424329240,"gmtModify":1694424333210,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/218720103927976","repostId":"2366675318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2366675318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1694420820,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2366675318?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-11 16:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"《大行报告》大摩：Tesla研发超级电脑带动市值提升76% 上调评级至“增持”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2366675318","media":"阿斯达克财经","summary":"大摩发表报告，认为Tesla用于训练自动驾驶汽车的超级电脑Dojo，可能会对公司带来不对称优势，带动市值上升近6,000亿美元，即约76%。Tesla将于7月开始生产Dojo，计划到明年投入超过10亿美元。大摩称，Dojo可以开辟新的潜在市场，远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围，将Tesla于2040年的服务收入预测由之前的1,570亿上调至3,350亿美元，相信届时服务部门将占公司核心盈利的 60%以上。大摩将Tesla评级上调至“增持”，并列为首选股，12至18个月的目标价上调60%至400美元。","content":"<html><body><div> <span> <p>大摩发表报告，认为Tesla(TSLA.US)<span> </span><span> </span>用于训练自动驾驶汽车的超级电脑Dojo，可能会对公司带来不对称优势，带动市值上升近6,000亿美元，即约76%。<br/>Tesla将于7月开始生产Dojo，计划到明年投入超过10亿美元。大摩称，Dojo可以开辟新的潜在市场，远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围，将Tesla于2040年的服务收入预测由之前的1,570亿上调至3,350亿美元，相信届时服务部门将占公司核心盈利的 60%以上。<br/><br/>大摩将Tesla评级上调至“增持”，并列为首选股，12至18个月的目标价上调60%至400美元。(mn/u)(美股为即时串流报价； OTC市场股票除外，资料延迟最少15分钟。)</p><div></div>AASTOCKS新闻 </span> </div></body></html>","source":"aastocks_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大行报告》大摩：Tesla研发超级电脑带动市值提升76% 上调评级至“增持”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大行报告》大摩：Tesla研发超级电脑带动市值提升76% 上调评级至“增持”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-11 16:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1293181/latest-news/AAFN><strong>阿斯达克财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩发表报告，认为Tesla(TSLA.US)  用于训练自动驾驶汽车的超级电脑Dojo，可能会对公司带来不对称优势，带动市值上升近6,000亿美元，即约76%。Tesla将于7月开始生产Dojo，计划到明年投入超过10亿美元。大摩称，Dojo可以开辟新的潜在市场，远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围，将Tesla于2040年的服务收入预测由之前的1,570亿上调至3,350亿美元，相信届时服务部门将占...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1293181/latest-news/AAFN\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20220428122717744_s.jpg","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1293181/latest-news/AAFN","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2366675318","content_text":"大摩发表报告，认为Tesla(TSLA.US)  用于训练自动驾驶汽车的超级电脑Dojo，可能会对公司带来不对称优势，带动市值上升近6,000亿美元，即约76%。Tesla将于7月开始生产Dojo，计划到明年投入超过10亿美元。大摩称，Dojo可以开辟新的潜在市场，远超出以固定价格销售汽车的范围，将Tesla于2040年的服务收入预测由之前的1,570亿上调至3,350亿美元，相信届时服务部门将占公司核心盈利的 60%以上。大摩将Tesla评级上调至“增持”，并列为首选股，12至18个月的目标价上调60%至400美元。(mn/u)(美股为即时串流报价； OTC市场股票除外，资料延迟最少15分钟。)AASTOCKS新闻","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076363791,"gmtCreate":1657794736413,"gmtModify":1676536062852,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure","listText":"Sure","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076363791","repostId":"2251193454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2251193454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657787497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2251193454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-14 16:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | 通胀破9，美股市场是否会面临更大压力？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251193454","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"通胀破9后的市场前景6月美国CPI通胀再度超预期上行创出新高，同环比都是如此（同比 9.1%，预期 8.8%，前值 8.6%；环比 1.3%，预期 1.1%，前值 1%）、表观与核心也都超预期（核心同","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>通胀破9后的市场前景</b></p><p>6月美国CPI通胀再度超预期上行创出新高，同环比都是如此（同比 9.1%，预期 8.8%，前值 8.6%；环比 1.3%，预期 1.1%，前值 1%）、表观与核心也都超预期（核心同比 5.9%，预期 5.7%，前值 6%；CPI环比 0.7%，预期 0.6%，前值 0.6%）。虽然市场在此前已经有所准备，但超预期的数字依然引发了市场广泛关注，尤其是在衰退担忧近期明显升温背景下。</p><p>往前看，美联储如何平衡居高不下的通胀压力与步步紧逼的衰退担忧？近期油价大跌何时能否反映到通胀回落上？美股市场是否会面临进一步的更大压力？这些都是我们需要结合最新的通胀数据需要回答的问题。</p><p>一、关于通胀本身：三季度或仍将维持高位；四季度有望开始回落</p><p>首先需要明确的是，6月份通胀原本就下不来，甚至三季度也明显很难下来，主要是因为在上半年俄乌局势导致的油价冲高和疫情复发造成的供应链扰动“浪费”了高基数后，下一个同比基数要到9月份才看得到。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005ff671779dfa1bd3eb173f69eb0a38\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>其次，为何这个月的通胀还超预期？简言之，主要是因为油和房。从通胀分项来看，此次通胀大超预期的一个主要因素就是美国国内燃油价格大涨，这似乎与近期国际原油价格大跌明显背离，但其实原因也不复杂，主要是由于国际油价传导到国内燃油价格通常有一个月左右的时滞，所以这个月的CPI分项中燃油“爆表”正是5月国际油价大涨的结果。二是房租（租金和等量房租）环比维持高位且继续抬升，这也是核心通胀超预期的主要来源。相反，出行类价格（例如机票和酒店）经过两个月的环比大涨已经开始回落；供应链相关的二手车和新车也已经环比增速放缓，体现了5月疫情扰动的消退。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8eb5b4baa82c64b7cd779f758a4b01\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ae3d0fbf982c352796e3222a49951e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>再次，但更重要的是，四季度可能下得来。相比当前路径超预期，这一点可能更为重要，直接决定了未来美联储政策是否还有可能退坡。基准情形下，假设不出现其他意料之外的供应冲击，例如基于100美元/桶油价的假设，随着9月份高基数的逐步到来，我们测算通胀有望逐步下行，年底有望回到7%左右，2023年有望回到4%附近。这其中，1）6月份油价的大跌将在下个月的价格中开始得到体现；2）供应链对于实物商品的影响逐步缓解、再叠加库存偏高和需求转弱的影响，价格也有望继续回落；3）房租和工资依然维持高位、其依然具有较大粘性，但也都出现一定筑顶迹象，例如工资以及房地产市场需求。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9ec2c956bb5192c364ea93961fc3b0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e48f214eb622a0fb4ccb6d749f3205\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>二、关于加息路径：可能再度推高加息路径，但依然主要集中在三季度</p><p>此次通胀再超预期的一个最直接“后果”就是依然可能再度推高加息路径。为了控制通胀，美联储的加息路径和终点需要与预期的通胀路径和终点相匹配，这一点从过往美联储所提供的PCE预测与加息路径（点阵图）预测来看，都有较高的吻合度，换言之，如果通胀路径发生变化，大概率美联储也会相应的上调其加息路径。按照这一思路，我们更新后的通胀路径对应的年底PCE可能会从上次测算的5.2%升至5.5%左右，而相应的加息终点也需要从3.4%抬高到3.7%附近，意味着至少需要多加25bp。虽然7月FOMC会议（7月28日）没有数据预测和点阵图更新，但市场预期已经开始修正。最新的CME利率期货显示，7月加息已经有100bp的预期、而9月加息预期也从50bp提高到75bp，使得本轮加息的最终终点提高到3.75%。</p><p>但是，由于此次面临的衰退压力较上次更大，因此市场预期更为激进且前置的加息路径依然是“最优解”，这导致目前的加息路径非常陡峭，更多都集中在三季度，11月之后加息降至25bp、明年停止加息、甚至年中后开始逐步降息依然是当前的主流预期。目前美联储依然没有完成加息任务（基准利率依然低于中性利率，实现金融条件收紧的目的），按照目前路径至少要到9月之后，因此三季度依然是美联储紧缩的密集期。</p><p>相应的，根据这一更新的加息路径以及2s10s约束，我们更新测算10年美债中枢可能维持在我们此前给出的3.5%附近甚至不排除阶段性摸高。近期衰退预期升温推动美债利率快速回落，但我们预计在加息完成任务之前可能难以形成趋势性的下行，四季度美联储政策退坡后或是更好的转机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ceec9d91dfbd1fdf1a88418a3d6b54f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b6bde94befb3ceb03ff51013310452\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>三、关于衰退风险：金融条件带来的压力可能提前至9月前后</p><p>我们在近期的一系列报告中分析，当前美国增长逐步放缓甚至最终走向衰退，可能都是大概率事件，这是由当前的加息高点和路径所决定的。换句话说，金融条件收得越紧越快，对增长抑制的效果越大，这一点从近期房贷利率大幅上行对于美国房地产市场需求的抑制上已经得到很明显的体现。</p><p>但是，只要不是衰退很快到来或者是一个深度衰退（例如债务危机）的话，陷入衰退也可能并没有那么可怕，从技术上定义无非是GDP环比连续负增长又或产出为负。我们根据历史经验测算，轻度衰退期间市场的平均跌幅一般在20%左右，盈利下调空间一般在10%（《衰退风险与美股熊市的历史关系》、《衰退担忧下的美股盈利前景》）。</p><p>基准情形下，我们根据金融条件的松紧程度（例如3m10s利差倒挂时间以及企业融资成本和投资回报率之间的关系）测算衰退压力可能到今年底明年初逐渐增加，而当前依然较为健康的资产负债表状况可能使得此次美国陷入债务危机式的深度衰退的概率没有那么大。但是，美联储更快的加息可能会使得金融条件收紧更早的到来、甚至更大程度的到来，也就意味着衰退压力更快地到来。目前更新的测算3m10s可能在9月加息后就逐步陷入倒挂，这可能会使得衰退与美联储政策四季度能够退坡之间的腾挪空间变得更窄。</p><p>但是，更大的风险来自于如果后续通胀路径还要继续失控，例如发生其他供给冲击，那么导致美联储在四季度都无法退坡，可能便会被迫进一步在增长已经明显承压甚至衰退的情形下继续紧缩，无法收手，也就是所谓的“沃尔克时刻”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a149fa421228e75175475256a54dda9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9ee2efde86c5bdbd0f4dcdb47983a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>四、市场影响：三季度依然不友好，关键看四季度政策能否退坡</p><p>6月超预期的通胀公布后，美股市场与主要资产价格盘前一度反应剧烈，但收盘后基本修复，整体反应不大。我们猜测原因可能有二，一是油价依然大跌，因此这个通胀数据对于市场而言有些“过时”；二是衰退预期的升温可能使得市场相信美联储无法在远端加息太多，即三季度完成两次快速加息后，可能不得已要停止甚至转向降息。</p><p>我们认为这一预期并非没有道理，只要美联储四季度能够退坡，即便届时增长还在回落，但市场交易逻辑就已经可以转向增长下滑但政策边际宽<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>主导的债权和成长股了。但这里关键的问题，就在于美联储能否以及何时退坡，如果压根无法退坡那自然就无从谈起交易逻辑切换、如果太晚退坡就无法对冲增长下滑的压力。从目前的通胀路径来看，9月份之后高基数可能使得通胀逐步走低提供了一个可能条件，使得美联储可以“松手”，当然风险便是通胀路径的再度失控。</p><p>不过，这反过来也就意味着，高通胀、快加息、和增长弱的格局在三季度可能难以有效缓解，市场可能依然会面临持续的扰动，例如7~8月的美股业绩期期间大概率的盈利下调、7月底美联储加息等。我们根据更新的加息路径和美债利率测算合理估值中枢在14倍左右，距离当前16倍的估值大概有10~12%的估值空间，因此维持美股三季度震荡偏弱的格局。与此同时，我们预计美元仍有支撑、黄金或继续承压。</p><p>四季度美联储政策如果能够退坡可能成为市场的转机，这个相比衰退可能更为重要。投资者普遍担心是否会“先杀估值再杀盈利”，但实际情况往往并非如此，都是估值先行回撤到一个较低水平，提前留出未来盈利下调空间。结合此前市场见底的经验，通常需要具备几个条件：1）估值足够低留出盈利下调空间；2）政策发出转向信号；3）并非深度衰退，盈利下调空间有限。目前看，前两个条件暂时都还不具备，四季度政策转向可能是一个主要契机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534ce3d66e531115d359545aedb43961\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f2b655126e98d989331cf248871ddf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 通胀破9，美股市场是否会面临更大压力？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-14 16:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rllmUSgdRtQ64e82N9ijtw><strong>Kevin策略研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀破9后的市场前景6月美国CPI通胀再度超预期上行创出新高，同环比都是如此（同比 9.1%，预期 8.8%，前值 8.6%；环比 1.3%，预期 1.1%，前值 1%）、表观与核心也都超预期（核心同比 5.9%，预期 5.7%，前值 6%；CPI环比 0.7%，预期 0.6%，前值 0.6%）。虽然市场在此前已经有所准备，但超预期的数字依然引发了市场广泛关注，尤其是在衰退担忧近期明显升温背景下。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rllmUSgdRtQ64e82N9ijtw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bca85c67cebb2ad0393582499ed4830c","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rllmUSgdRtQ64e82N9ijtw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251193454","content_text":"通胀破9后的市场前景6月美国CPI通胀再度超预期上行创出新高，同环比都是如此（同比 9.1%，预期 8.8%，前值 8.6%；环比 1.3%，预期 1.1%，前值 1%）、表观与核心也都超预期（核心同比 5.9%，预期 5.7%，前值 6%；CPI环比 0.7%，预期 0.6%，前值 0.6%）。虽然市场在此前已经有所准备，但超预期的数字依然引发了市场广泛关注，尤其是在衰退担忧近期明显升温背景下。往前看，美联储如何平衡居高不下的通胀压力与步步紧逼的衰退担忧？近期油价大跌何时能否反映到通胀回落上？美股市场是否会面临进一步的更大压力？这些都是我们需要结合最新的通胀数据需要回答的问题。一、关于通胀本身：三季度或仍将维持高位；四季度有望开始回落首先需要明确的是，6月份通胀原本就下不来，甚至三季度也明显很难下来，主要是因为在上半年俄乌局势导致的油价冲高和疫情复发造成的供应链扰动“浪费”了高基数后，下一个同比基数要到9月份才看得到。其次，为何这个月的通胀还超预期？简言之，主要是因为油和房。从通胀分项来看，此次通胀大超预期的一个主要因素就是美国国内燃油价格大涨，这似乎与近期国际原油价格大跌明显背离，但其实原因也不复杂，主要是由于国际油价传导到国内燃油价格通常有一个月左右的时滞，所以这个月的CPI分项中燃油“爆表”正是5月国际油价大涨的结果。二是房租（租金和等量房租）环比维持高位且继续抬升，这也是核心通胀超预期的主要来源。相反，出行类价格（例如机票和酒店）经过两个月的环比大涨已经开始回落；供应链相关的二手车和新车也已经环比增速放缓，体现了5月疫情扰动的消退。再次，但更重要的是，四季度可能下得来。相比当前路径超预期，这一点可能更为重要，直接决定了未来美联储政策是否还有可能退坡。基准情形下，假设不出现其他意料之外的供应冲击，例如基于100美元/桶油价的假设，随着9月份高基数的逐步到来，我们测算通胀有望逐步下行，年底有望回到7%左右，2023年有望回到4%附近。这其中，1）6月份油价的大跌将在下个月的价格中开始得到体现；2）供应链对于实物商品的影响逐步缓解、再叠加库存偏高和需求转弱的影响，价格也有望继续回落；3）房租和工资依然维持高位、其依然具有较大粘性，但也都出现一定筑顶迹象，例如工资以及房地产市场需求。二、关于加息路径：可能再度推高加息路径，但依然主要集中在三季度此次通胀再超预期的一个最直接“后果”就是依然可能再度推高加息路径。为了控制通胀，美联储的加息路径和终点需要与预期的通胀路径和终点相匹配，这一点从过往美联储所提供的PCE预测与加息路径（点阵图）预测来看，都有较高的吻合度，换言之，如果通胀路径发生变化，大概率美联储也会相应的上调其加息路径。按照这一思路，我们更新后的通胀路径对应的年底PCE可能会从上次测算的5.2%升至5.5%左右，而相应的加息终点也需要从3.4%抬高到3.7%附近，意味着至少需要多加25bp。虽然7月FOMC会议（7月28日）没有数据预测和点阵图更新，但市场预期已经开始修正。最新的CME利率期货显示，7月加息已经有100bp的预期、而9月加息预期也从50bp提高到75bp，使得本轮加息的最终终点提高到3.75%。但是，由于此次面临的衰退压力较上次更大，因此市场预期更为激进且前置的加息路径依然是“最优解”，这导致目前的加息路径非常陡峭，更多都集中在三季度，11月之后加息降至25bp、明年停止加息、甚至年中后开始逐步降息依然是当前的主流预期。目前美联储依然没有完成加息任务（基准利率依然低于中性利率，实现金融条件收紧的目的），按照目前路径至少要到9月之后，因此三季度依然是美联储紧缩的密集期。相应的，根据这一更新的加息路径以及2s10s约束，我们更新测算10年美债中枢可能维持在我们此前给出的3.5%附近甚至不排除阶段性摸高。近期衰退预期升温推动美债利率快速回落，但我们预计在加息完成任务之前可能难以形成趋势性的下行，四季度美联储政策退坡后或是更好的转机。三、关于衰退风险：金融条件带来的压力可能提前至9月前后我们在近期的一系列报告中分析，当前美国增长逐步放缓甚至最终走向衰退，可能都是大概率事件，这是由当前的加息高点和路径所决定的。换句话说，金融条件收得越紧越快，对增长抑制的效果越大，这一点从近期房贷利率大幅上行对于美国房地产市场需求的抑制上已经得到很明显的体现。但是，只要不是衰退很快到来或者是一个深度衰退（例如债务危机）的话，陷入衰退也可能并没有那么可怕，从技术上定义无非是GDP环比连续负增长又或产出为负。我们根据历史经验测算，轻度衰退期间市场的平均跌幅一般在20%左右，盈利下调空间一般在10%（《衰退风险与美股熊市的历史关系》、《衰退担忧下的美股盈利前景》）。基准情形下，我们根据金融条件的松紧程度（例如3m10s利差倒挂时间以及企业融资成本和投资回报率之间的关系）测算衰退压力可能到今年底明年初逐渐增加，而当前依然较为健康的资产负债表状况可能使得此次美国陷入债务危机式的深度衰退的概率没有那么大。但是，美联储更快的加息可能会使得金融条件收紧更早的到来、甚至更大程度的到来，也就意味着衰退压力更快地到来。目前更新的测算3m10s可能在9月加息后就逐步陷入倒挂，这可能会使得衰退与美联储政策四季度能够退坡之间的腾挪空间变得更窄。但是，更大的风险来自于如果后续通胀路径还要继续失控，例如发生其他供给冲击，那么导致美联储在四季度都无法退坡，可能便会被迫进一步在增长已经明显承压甚至衰退的情形下继续紧缩，无法收手，也就是所谓的“沃尔克时刻”。四、市场影响：三季度依然不友好，关键看四季度政策能否退坡6月超预期的通胀公布后，美股市场与主要资产价格盘前一度反应剧烈，但收盘后基本修复，整体反应不大。我们猜测原因可能有二，一是油价依然大跌，因此这个通胀数据对于市场而言有些“过时”；二是衰退预期的升温可能使得市场相信美联储无法在远端加息太多，即三季度完成两次快速加息后，可能不得已要停止甚至转向降息。我们认为这一预期并非没有道理，只要美联储四季度能够退坡，即便届时增长还在回落，但市场交易逻辑就已经可以转向增长下滑但政策边际宽松下主导的债权和成长股了。但这里关键的问题，就在于美联储能否以及何时退坡，如果压根无法退坡那自然就无从谈起交易逻辑切换、如果太晚退坡就无法对冲增长下滑的压力。从目前的通胀路径来看，9月份之后高基数可能使得通胀逐步走低提供了一个可能条件，使得美联储可以“松手”，当然风险便是通胀路径的再度失控。不过，这反过来也就意味着，高通胀、快加息、和增长弱的格局在三季度可能难以有效缓解，市场可能依然会面临持续的扰动，例如7~8月的美股业绩期期间大概率的盈利下调、7月底美联储加息等。我们根据更新的加息路径和美债利率测算合理估值中枢在14倍左右，距离当前16倍的估值大概有10~12%的估值空间，因此维持美股三季度震荡偏弱的格局。与此同时，我们预计美元仍有支撑、黄金或继续承压。四季度美联储政策如果能够退坡可能成为市场的转机，这个相比衰退可能更为重要。投资者普遍担心是否会“先杀估值再杀盈利”，但实际情况往往并非如此，都是估值先行回撤到一个较低水平，提前留出未来盈利下调空间。结合此前市场见底的经验，通常需要具备几个条件：1）估值足够低留出盈利下调空间；2）政策发出转向信号；3）并非深度衰退，盈利下调空间有限。目前看，前两个条件暂时都还不具备，四季度政策转向可能是一个主要契机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065860883,"gmtCreate":1652171359242,"gmtModify":1676535045334,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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