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Jesscy

Jesscy

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2022-09-09

RIP

英国女王伊丽莎白二世去世，享年96岁

2022-09-08

RIP

伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王

2022-09-08

Thanks for sharing

想超越苹果，越来越难了

2022-08-23

Thanks for sharing

烧了100亿的Meta元宇宙，水平就这？小扎：借钱也要继续搞

2022-08-14

Good points

增长迅猛、市场规模增大，AMD却还陷在“低估值陷阱”中？

2022-07-27

Thanks for sharing

夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？

2022-07-27

Good points

市场担忧情绪蔓延下，自由现金流或成谷歌的渡市筏？

2022-07-02

Recover to what level ?

Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?

2022-06-05

PLTR worth to invest

Palantir Is A Buy: Let Me Tell You Why

2022-06-03

Great

6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉

2022-05-24

Thanks for sharing

盘前 | 恐慌情绪蔓延！三大期指全线下跌

2022-05-24

Thanks for sharing

特斯拉已经“破位”，下一站是540美元？

2022-05-20

TSLA stock price decreasing

Elon Musk Says ESG Is a ‘Scam’ as S&P Drops TSLA Stock From ESG Index

2022-05-20

Good

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-11

Terrible

美股重演互联网泡沫危机？抛售何时停止？

2022-05-10

What's wrong?

特斯拉再度召回车辆，共计129,960辆

2022-05-09

OMG

Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading

2022-05-06

Yes

大空头警告：准备迎接一生中最大的熊市

2022-05-02

Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-28

Get to know better

一文读懂股票回购：对股价影响有多大？

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01:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英国女王伊丽莎白二世去世，享年96岁","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190604661","media":"央视新闻客户端","summary":"见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1193358135\" target=\"_blank\"><b>伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王</b></a></p><p>当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。</p><p>随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合露面。6日，96岁的女王伊丽莎白二世在巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受约翰逊的辞职并正式任命特拉斯为新任首相。</p><p>伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生于伦敦。1952年，伊丽莎白公主在25岁时成为女王，当时她的父亲乔治六世国王去世。从温斯顿·丘吉尔爵士到利兹·特拉斯，女王在位期间见证了15位英国首相。2015年，她成为历史上在位时间最长的英国君主，打破了她的曾曾祖母维多利亚女王创下的纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>皇室的正式讣告</span></p><p>英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。国王和王后今晚将留在巴尔莫勒尔，明天返回伦敦。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生，于1952年登基，2015年9月成为英国在位时间最长的君主。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2月16日，女王会见即将离任的国防部长时略显憔悴，行动不便</p><p>9月8日，白金汉宫表示，英国女王的医生对女王健康状况表示“担忧”，并建议女王“继续接受医学监护”。</p><p>自去年10月以来，英国女王一直受到健康问题困扰。今年2月，伊丽莎白二世女王迎来了在位70周年庆典。</p><p>同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。</p><p>此前，英国查尔斯王储及妻子卡米拉新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性。</p><p>新冠康复后，女王没有回归众人的视野，站立和走路都很困难。</p><p>今年3月14日的英联邦纪念日活动，女王意外缺席，全英惊讶不已。</p><p>那个”不惜一切也要参加纪念日“的女王，身体着实不行了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>女王一向以硬朗示人，能站着就绝不坐轮椅，但在她生命的最后一段时间，工作人员还是在她住所安置了电梯，外加一部安全轮椅。</p><p>大家还记得，去年4月9日，<b>和女王携手走完74年的菲利普亲王去世，</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>全英国默哀一分钟，30名王室成员在温莎城堡内为他举办了50分钟的葬礼。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>女王一袭黑衣，坐在车内默默垂泪。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>之后，女王的健康也频频曝出问题。</b></p><p>菲利普去世1个月后，王室全面复工，</p><p>女王在出席国会开幕仪式时，整个人暴瘦，可以看出心情低沉，失去了昔日的笑容和神采。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>9月份，女王拒绝了紧急的膝盖手术，导致行走困难，</p><p>10月12日，她在出席皇家英国退伍军人协会百年纪念仪式时，首次拄着拐杖出现，</p><p>这一幕引发轩然大波，引发对女王健康状况的猜测。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然家里养了两只宠物狗，女王还是面容憔悴，失去了精神支柱。</p><p>10月20日，白金汉宫发表声明，<b>表示女王在医生的建议下，取消了原定与周三、周四的北爱尔兰之访。</b></p><p>女王未来几天将遵医嘱好好休息，虽然她不太情愿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>然而当天晚上，女王直接住进了医院，</p><p>这是她过去八年来，第一次住院，上一次还是患胃病。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这份爆炸性新闻一出，连逐渐背离皇室的英国人都急了，</p><p>“女王没事吧？”</p><p>报道透露，<b>女王的健康问题与新冠无关。</b></p><p>一连串健康事故发生后，女王的医生提醒她，“该戒酒了。”</p><p>女王喜欢饮酒，每晚都喝马天尼，数十年如一日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然身体每况愈下，那时候女王的精神状况还是很好，</p><p>10月份，她还拒绝了某杂志要赋予她的“年度最佳老人”称号，</p><p>因为她认为自己还很年轻。</p><p>根据《英国报联社》的报道，虽然被困在家，她仍坚持办一些“轻松的公务”。</p><p>11月14日，病痛再次袭来——</p><p><b>女王因背部扭伤，缺席当天的国殇纪念日仪式。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>白金汉宫发言人说，她的健康状况进一步恶化，无法出席。</p><p>而英国著名主持人皮尔斯摩根则表示，“女王的真实健康状况，比白金汉宫所说的更严重。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>女王伊丽莎白二世是目前全世界在位时间最久、年纪最长的君主。</b></p><p><b>可谓“超长待机”。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>自1952年继位以来，她一共耗走了13位美国总统。从杜鲁门一路经历到特朗普。见证了肯尼迪遇刺，水门事件，王妃戴安娜之死，等一系列历史大事。</p><p>几乎见证了整个新中国的发展历程……</p><p><b>简直就是个会走路的古董。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>伊丽莎白二世（Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II），即现任英国女王，英联邦元首、国会最高首领。</p><p>全称是“承上帝洪恩的大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国及其他领土和属地女王，英联邦元首，国教（圣公会）的捍卫者伊丽莎白二世。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>她在年轻的时候爱上了自己的表哥。</b>那个时候咱们的女王才21岁，天真纯良年少无知。就这样悄悄地陷入了爱情。</p><p>但严格说起来，女王大人的婚姻实际上算是亲族联姻。因为她和她的丈夫菲利普亲王其实都是维多利亚女王的玄孙，所以他们在结婚以前一直是以表兄妹相称。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>而实际上，当年早在菲利普还不是亲王的时候，咱们的女王大人就早已经对他芳心暗动。</b>那时候菲利普亲王还是 “菲利普·蒙巴顿上尉”。</p><p><b>没错，他就是著名的蒙巴顿将军路易斯·蒙巴顿的外甥。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>说到这里，简直不得不说一下欧洲皇室混乱的血缘关系。</p><p>因为在欧洲各国在地理上非常相近，又有长期通婚的历史。因此到了后来，简直随便抓一个出来就是几十年前同一家。想不沾亲带故都难。</p><p>说到这里就不得不提一下千古浪漫的爱德华八世，他简直是英国史上最著名的爱美人不爱江山的典范。</p><p><b>不过话说如果当年爱德华八世爱的不是美人的话，现在坐在王位上的或许就不会是伊丽莎白二世了。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>关于这段旷世奇恋，麦当娜曾导过一部电影叫“《倾国之恋》（W.E.）”。 电影的英文名就是辛普森夫人与爱德华王子名字首字母的缩写。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>爱德华八世和让他放弃了江山的“美人”辛普森夫人</p><p>话说爱德华八世和乔治六世分别是乔治五世（George V）的长子与次子。</p><p>爱德华于1936年初继位，还没来得及加冕，就在1936年12月因为违抗教会和内阁，执意要娶离异的辛普森夫人为妻而签署了退位声明，并以温莎公爵的身份在之后的全国广播中说到：</p><p><b>“I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.”</b></p><p><b>此后爱德华夫妻在法国度过了他们余生大部分时光，直至死后才回到英国。</b></p><p>当然对于爱德华八世退位的原因众说纷纭，有人说因为他偏向纳粹，这里就不一一细说了。</p><p>话说在爱德华八世退位以后，他的弟弟艾伯特，就是乔治六世，本来顺理成章地回国继承王位。</p><p>乔治六世就是《国王的演讲》里面带有口吃的国王的原型。他曾发表全国广播鼓励民众在二战中抵抗德军。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>《国王的演讲》剧照</p><p>乔治六世本名叫Albert，这是一个德国名字。后来在二战期间为了与德国划清关系改名为George。</p><p>乔治六世之前之所以取名为 Albert ，是因为维多利亚女王的丈夫叫 Albert。维多利亚女王的一生挚爱的丈夫是萨克森•科堡•哥达的阿尔伯特王子，出生在德国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>乔治六世</p><p>而维多利亚女王曾经要求，在她之后的历代君主中，必须有人的名字中带有 Albert，一次来缅怀她对自己丈夫的爱。</p><p>这个不成文的规定在伊丽莎白二世继位后被免除。伊丽莎白二世是维多利亚女王的重重孙女，<b>也就是说，伊丽莎白喊维多利亚女王叫：祖太奶奶。</b></p><p><b>所以伊丽莎白二世女王也算得上是改了祖训。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>伊丽莎白女王二世于1947年结婚，丈夫是爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王，从此开始了一段长达74年的秀恩爱旅程。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>女王和菲利普亲王，两张照片中的两人姿态神情几乎一致，而拍摄时间却差距整整半个世纪。恩，你也想秀恩爱半个世纪？</p><p>女王和爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王育有四个孩子，其中三个是儿子，一个是女儿，分别是长子查尔斯、次子安德鲁、小儿子爱德华以及女儿安妮。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>伊丽莎白二世女王是一位恪守教律的虔诚的基督教徒，因此她对于查尔斯的情妇卡米拉多年以来都不肯承认。</p><p>然而她的儿子却并不像她一样重视诺言，她的儿子查尔斯王子与儿媳妇戴安娜王妃之间的八卦简直举世闻名。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>让皇室颇为“头疼”的儿媳戴安娜王妃</p><p>女王最宠爱的儿子安德鲁王子也绝非省油的灯，深陷性侵丑闻之后被女王剥夺了军衔和王室赞助人身份。</p><p>不过话说女王的孙子们还算得上低调，除了戴安娜王妃的小儿子哈利王子各种绯闻缠身。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>哈利王子</p><p>女王的生日是在4月21日，但是在4月20日的时候，女王走访了英国皇家邮政局，收到了一系列邮票。</p><p>以上传奇属于女王大人一生的哪个阶段，就请大家自行对应吧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>关于被伊丽莎白二世耗走的13位美国总统，他们是：</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman哈里·S·杜鲁门 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower德怀特·戴维·艾森豪威尔 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy约翰·肯尼迪 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson林登·约翰逊 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon理查德·尼克松 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford杰拉尔德·福特 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter吉米·卡特 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan罗纳德·里根 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush乔治·沃克·布什 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama贝拉克·奥巴马 2009-2017</p><p>以及美国第45任总统，Donald Trump唐纳德·特朗普 2017-2021 。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据英国历史上的传统，作为加冕君主，女王不会生前退位。</p><p>但是，关于她的身后事其实很久以前就有过安排和预演了，这个方案代号为<b>“伦敦桥”（London Bridge）</b>。</p><p>英国国王的驾崩，与别国不同，首先要定一个暗号。</p><p>先代英王乔治六世，去世时的暗号就是“海德公园一角（Hyde Park Corner）”，相应的，伊丽莎白二世的暗号则是“London Bridge is down（伦敦大桥垮下来）”，这个暗号从女王登基后就已存在，正如古代帝王提前修建陵墓一般。</p><p><b>根据这个计划，女王一旦去世，英国上下将会降半旗致哀，全国进入12天的哀悼日。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>紧接着收到报告的是英国外交部，他们负责向英联邦国家传达消息。</p><p>与王室合作的媒体也会在第一时间收到消息，但不是通过电话或者简讯，而是悬于演播厅上方的<b>一盏蓝灯</b>。</p><p>这顶蓝灯设计于冷战期间，原本的目的是第一时间报道苏联发动核战争，争分夺秒让民众进入避难程序。</p><p>但是在和平年代，一旦蓝灯亮起，不意味着别的，意味着女王驾崩，电视台要迅速准备好，停止一切娱乐节目，播放哀悼音乐。</p><p>为宣读讣闻的准备的黑色丧服也随时准备在办公室。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>理论上来说，英国的王位不能有真空期，所以一旦女王去世，史上“最长待机”的查尔斯王子作为王储将自动成为新一任英国国王。</p><p>但是，他正式继位还需要一系列官方程序，他将在议会和英格兰教堂当众宣誓忠诚，圣詹姆斯宫才会正式宣布他为国王。</p><p>查尔斯王储成为国王后，英国的国歌《上帝佑我女王》的歌词也得发生相应的改变。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>英国人对王室的葬礼流程已经非常熟悉，甚至英女王本人也参加预演，指出不足之处。</p><p>但是，她本人也并不是毫不在乎。</p><p>前几年，十分喜欢养柯基的女王宣布不再饲养任何宠物。外媒报道，英国女王正在和自己的父母、童年、回忆慢慢告别。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然，这其中最难受的还是女王的家人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>她传奇的一生已经落幕，是是非非，也只能留给后世评说。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英国女王伊丽莎白二世去世，享年96岁</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n英国女王伊丽莎白二世去世，享年96岁\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 01:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200><strong>央视新闻客户端</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>》》》伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c32b0f1b76a429c3243349d4088def","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190604661","content_text":"》》》伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合露面。6日，96岁的女王伊丽莎白二世在巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受约翰逊的辞职并正式任命特拉斯为新任首相。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生于伦敦。1952年，伊丽莎白公主在25岁时成为女王，当时她的父亲乔治六世国王去世。从温斯顿·丘吉尔爵士到利兹·特拉斯，女王在位期间见证了15位英国首相。2015年，她成为历史上在位时间最长的英国君主，打破了她的曾曾祖母维多利亚女王创下的纪录。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。国王和王后今晚将留在巴尔莫勒尔，明天返回伦敦。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生，于1952年登基，2015年9月成为英国在位时间最长的君主。2月16日，女王会见即将离任的国防部长时略显憔悴，行动不便9月8日，白金汉宫表示，英国女王的医生对女王健康状况表示“担忧”，并建议女王“继续接受医学监护”。自去年10月以来，英国女王一直受到健康问题困扰。今年2月，伊丽莎白二世女王迎来了在位70周年庆典。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。此前，英国查尔斯王储及妻子卡米拉新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性。新冠康复后，女王没有回归众人的视野，站立和走路都很困难。今年3月14日的英联邦纪念日活动，女王意外缺席，全英惊讶不已。那个”不惜一切也要参加纪念日“的女王，身体着实不行了。女王一向以硬朗示人，能站着就绝不坐轮椅，但在她生命的最后一段时间，工作人员还是在她住所安置了电梯，外加一部安全轮椅。大家还记得，去年4月9日，和女王携手走完74年的菲利普亲王去世，全英国默哀一分钟，30名王室成员在温莎城堡内为他举办了50分钟的葬礼。女王一袭黑衣，坐在车内默默垂泪。之后，女王的健康也频频曝出问题。菲利普去世1个月后，王室全面复工，女王在出席国会开幕仪式时，整个人暴瘦，可以看出心情低沉，失去了昔日的笑容和神采。9月份，女王拒绝了紧急的膝盖手术，导致行走困难，10月12日，她在出席皇家英国退伍军人协会百年纪念仪式时，首次拄着拐杖出现，这一幕引发轩然大波，引发对女王健康状况的猜测。虽然家里养了两只宠物狗，女王还是面容憔悴，失去了精神支柱。10月20日，白金汉宫发表声明，表示女王在医生的建议下，取消了原定与周三、周四的北爱尔兰之访。女王未来几天将遵医嘱好好休息，虽然她不太情愿。然而当天晚上，女王直接住进了医院，这是她过去八年来，第一次住院，上一次还是患胃病。这份爆炸性新闻一出，连逐渐背离皇室的英国人都急了，“女王没事吧？”报道透露，女王的健康问题与新冠无关。一连串健康事故发生后，女王的医生提醒她，“该戒酒了。”女王喜欢饮酒，每晚都喝马天尼，数十年如一日。虽然身体每况愈下，那时候女王的精神状况还是很好，10月份，她还拒绝了某杂志要赋予她的“年度最佳老人”称号，因为她认为自己还很年轻。根据《英国报联社》的报道，虽然被困在家，她仍坚持办一些“轻松的公务”。11月14日，病痛再次袭来——女王因背部扭伤，缺席当天的国殇纪念日仪式。白金汉宫发言人说，她的健康状况进一步恶化，无法出席。而英国著名主持人皮尔斯摩根则表示，“女王的真实健康状况，比白金汉宫所说的更严重。”女王伊丽莎白二世是目前全世界在位时间最久、年纪最长的君主。可谓“超长待机”。自1952年继位以来，她一共耗走了13位美国总统。从杜鲁门一路经历到特朗普。见证了肯尼迪遇刺，水门事件，王妃戴安娜之死，等一系列历史大事。几乎见证了整个新中国的发展历程……简直就是个会走路的古董。伊丽莎白二世（Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II），即现任英国女王，英联邦元首、国会最高首领。全称是“承上帝洪恩的大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国及其他领土和属地女王，英联邦元首，国教（圣公会）的捍卫者伊丽莎白二世。她在年轻的时候爱上了自己的表哥。那个时候咱们的女王才21岁，天真纯良年少无知。就这样悄悄地陷入了爱情。但严格说起来，女王大人的婚姻实际上算是亲族联姻。因为她和她的丈夫菲利普亲王其实都是维多利亚女王的玄孙，所以他们在结婚以前一直是以表兄妹相称。而实际上，当年早在菲利普还不是亲王的时候，咱们的女王大人就早已经对他芳心暗动。那时候菲利普亲王还是 “菲利普·蒙巴顿上尉”。没错，他就是著名的蒙巴顿将军路易斯·蒙巴顿的外甥。说到这里，简直不得不说一下欧洲皇室混乱的血缘关系。因为在欧洲各国在地理上非常相近，又有长期通婚的历史。因此到了后来，简直随便抓一个出来就是几十年前同一家。想不沾亲带故都难。说到这里就不得不提一下千古浪漫的爱德华八世，他简直是英国史上最著名的爱美人不爱江山的典范。不过话说如果当年爱德华八世爱的不是美人的话，现在坐在王位上的或许就不会是伊丽莎白二世了。关于这段旷世奇恋，麦当娜曾导过一部电影叫“《倾国之恋》（W.E.）”。 电影的英文名就是辛普森夫人与爱德华王子名字首字母的缩写。爱德华八世和让他放弃了江山的“美人”辛普森夫人话说爱德华八世和乔治六世分别是乔治五世（George V）的长子与次子。爱德华于1936年初继位，还没来得及加冕，就在1936年12月因为违抗教会和内阁，执意要娶离异的辛普森夫人为妻而签署了退位声明，并以温莎公爵的身份在之后的全国广播中说到：“I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.”此后爱德华夫妻在法国度过了他们余生大部分时光，直至死后才回到英国。当然对于爱德华八世退位的原因众说纷纭，有人说因为他偏向纳粹，这里就不一一细说了。话说在爱德华八世退位以后，他的弟弟艾伯特，就是乔治六世，本来顺理成章地回国继承王位。乔治六世就是《国王的演讲》里面带有口吃的国王的原型。他曾发表全国广播鼓励民众在二战中抵抗德军。《国王的演讲》剧照乔治六世本名叫Albert，这是一个德国名字。后来在二战期间为了与德国划清关系改名为George。乔治六世之前之所以取名为 Albert ，是因为维多利亚女王的丈夫叫 Albert。维多利亚女王的一生挚爱的丈夫是萨克森•科堡•哥达的阿尔伯特王子，出生在德国。乔治六世而维多利亚女王曾经要求，在她之后的历代君主中，必须有人的名字中带有 Albert，一次来缅怀她对自己丈夫的爱。这个不成文的规定在伊丽莎白二世继位后被免除。伊丽莎白二世是维多利亚女王的重重孙女，也就是说，伊丽莎白喊维多利亚女王叫：祖太奶奶。所以伊丽莎白二世女王也算得上是改了祖训。伊丽莎白女王二世于1947年结婚，丈夫是爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王，从此开始了一段长达74年的秀恩爱旅程。女王和菲利普亲王，两张照片中的两人姿态神情几乎一致，而拍摄时间却差距整整半个世纪。恩，你也想秀恩爱半个世纪？女王和爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王育有四个孩子，其中三个是儿子，一个是女儿，分别是长子查尔斯、次子安德鲁、小儿子爱德华以及女儿安妮。伊丽莎白二世女王是一位恪守教律的虔诚的基督教徒，因此她对于查尔斯的情妇卡米拉多年以来都不肯承认。然而她的儿子却并不像她一样重视诺言，她的儿子查尔斯王子与儿媳妇戴安娜王妃之间的八卦简直举世闻名。让皇室颇为“头疼”的儿媳戴安娜王妃女王最宠爱的儿子安德鲁王子也绝非省油的灯，深陷性侵丑闻之后被女王剥夺了军衔和王室赞助人身份。不过话说女王的孙子们还算得上低调，除了戴安娜王妃的小儿子哈利王子各种绯闻缠身。哈利王子女王的生日是在4月21日，但是在4月20日的时候，女王走访了英国皇家邮政局，收到了一系列邮票。以上传奇属于女王大人一生的哪个阶段，就请大家自行对应吧。关于被伊丽莎白二世耗走的13位美国总统，他们是：33 Harry S. Truman哈里·S·杜鲁门 1945-195334 Dwight D Eisenhower德怀特·戴维·艾森豪威尔 1953-196135 John F Kennedy约翰·肯尼迪 1961-196336 Lyndon Johnson林登·约翰逊 1963-196937 Richard Nixon理查德·尼克松 1969-197438 Gerald Ford杰拉尔德·福特 1974-197739 Jimmy Carter吉米·卡特 1977-198140 Ronald Reagan罗纳德·里根 1981-198941 George H W Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什 1989-199342 Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿 1993-200143 George W Bush乔治·沃克·布什 2001-200944 Barack Obama贝拉克·奥巴马 2009-2017以及美国第45任总统，Donald Trump唐纳德·特朗普 2017-2021 。根据英国历史上的传统，作为加冕君主，女王不会生前退位。但是，关于她的身后事其实很久以前就有过安排和预演了，这个方案代号为“伦敦桥”（London Bridge）。英国国王的驾崩，与别国不同，首先要定一个暗号。先代英王乔治六世，去世时的暗号就是“海德公园一角（Hyde Park Corner）”，相应的，伊丽莎白二世的暗号则是“London Bridge is down（伦敦大桥垮下来）”，这个暗号从女王登基后就已存在，正如古代帝王提前修建陵墓一般。根据这个计划，女王一旦去世，英国上下将会降半旗致哀，全国进入12天的哀悼日。紧接着收到报告的是英国外交部，他们负责向英联邦国家传达消息。与王室合作的媒体也会在第一时间收到消息，但不是通过电话或者简讯，而是悬于演播厅上方的一盏蓝灯。这顶蓝灯设计于冷战期间，原本的目的是第一时间报道苏联发动核战争，争分夺秒让民众进入避难程序。但是在和平年代，一旦蓝灯亮起，不意味着别的，意味着女王驾崩，电视台要迅速准备好，停止一切娱乐节目，播放哀悼音乐。为宣读讣闻的准备的黑色丧服也随时准备在办公室。理论上来说，英国的王位不能有真空期，所以一旦女王去世，史上“最长待机”的查尔斯王子作为王储将自动成为新一任英国国王。但是，他正式继位还需要一系列官方程序，他将在议会和英格兰教堂当众宣誓忠诚，圣詹姆斯宫才会正式宣布他为国王。查尔斯王储成为国王后，英国的国歌《上帝佑我女王》的歌词也得发生相应的改变。英国人对王室的葬礼流程已经非常熟悉，甚至英女王本人也参加预演，指出不足之处。但是，她本人也并不是毫不在乎。前几年，十分喜欢养柯基的女王宣布不再饲养任何宠物。外媒报道，英国女王正在和自己的父母、童年、回忆慢慢告别。当然，这其中最难受的还是女王的家人。她传奇的一生已经落幕，是是非非，也只能留给后世评说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938468703,"gmtCreate":1662650762702,"gmtModify":1676537110544,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP&nbsp;","listText":"RIP&nbsp;","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938468703","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193358135","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662648069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193358135?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193358135","media":"易简读书","summary":"当地时间9月8日，英国白金汉宫表示，由于医生担心英国女王伊丽莎白二世的身体健康情况，伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。在英国女王伊丽莎白二世身体欠佳的消息传出后，包括女儿安妮公主和小儿子爱德华王子在内的四","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间9月8日，英国白金汉宫表示，由于医生担心英国女王伊丽莎白二世的身体健康情况，伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。</p><p>在英国女王伊丽莎白二世身体欠佳的消息传出后，包括女儿安妮公主和小儿子爱德华王子在内的四个孩子目前都在苏格兰的巴尔莫勒尔堡陪伴女王。查尔斯王子和卡米拉此前也前往巴尔莫勒尔和女王在一起。据报道，英国女王的直系亲属已被告知女王身体欠佳消息。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/071ad6f692637ce173365d755bbde9a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>央视新闻报道截图</span></p><p><b>伊丽莎白二世：“铁打的女王，流水的首相”，见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王！</b></p><p>穿着藏绿色斗篷，顶着花白蓬蓬头，一脸慈祥地站树下，牵着两匹小白马。</p><p>这是英国女王伊丽莎白二世96岁的生日纪念照，伦敦时间4月21日，摄于温莎城堡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e21c86198a85b7eb48f0b17a78b7df\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>“欲戴皇冠，必承其重”</b></p><p>实际上，“4月21日”只是她今年两个生日中的一个，据悉，英国将在6月2日至5日举行女王“官方”生日庆典，欢庆女王登基70周年（“白金禧年”），致敬这位英国迄今最长寿、在位最久的君主。</p><p>女王的全称为“托上帝洪恩，大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国以及其他领土和属地的女王、英联邦元首、基督教的保护者伊丽莎白二世”。</p><p>登基70年来，伊丽莎白二世历经多个时代传奇，见证14任英国首相，可谓“铁打的女王，流水的首相”。</p><p>同时，她见证了英国的兴衰，从日不落帝国到英国脱欧“黑天鹅”，影响力逐渐退却。</p><p>她的一生也几乎贯穿整个现当代史，近百年人类世界翻天覆地的变化流转在她的眼眸。</p><p>英国《金融时报》曾评论道，96岁高龄的女王已经成为这个瞬息万变的世界里“连续和传承”的象征。</p><p>伊丽莎白二世不仅是英国的女王，同时也是15个英联邦国家及地区的女王。在位期间，她曾外访300多次，到过上百个国家和地区，逐渐成为英国最为知名的代言人。</p><p>“英国象征”“英国代言人”已经成为了她生存的标签，她不想撕掉，坦然接受，因为她曾在第一次访问南非的时候就下定决心<b>“我在你们所有人面前宣布，我的一生，无论长短，都将献给你们，为我们都属于的大家庭（our great imperial family）服务。”</b></p><p><b>那时，她还只是年仅21岁的公主。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be49f46911f917e88a44dfbd3bc2a83\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"909\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“欲戴皇冠，必承其重”或许在1953年真正戴上皇冠的那一刻起，她真正明白了自己不再是贤妻良母，而是嫁给了英国，成为了英国的女人，于是她开始“伪装”自己。</p><p>她在大众面前永远沉着冷静，高贵典雅，你永远也抓拍不到她慌张的蛛丝马迹，因为这是作为70年跨世纪“女王”的素养。</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>天降王位</b></p><p>其实，谁生来都不是女王，伊丽莎白也如此，10岁以前的她还是无忧无虑的小公主，直到1936年爱德华八世被迫逊位。</p><p>1926年4月21日雨夜，伊丽莎白出生在伦敦西区布鲁顿街17号，祖父母家中。</p><p>她的童年充满欢乐，与父母 、妹妹在苏格兰、英格兰乡下过着田园小生活，日常放风筝、骑小车。她不会放大公主的身份，喜欢和同龄小伙伴在草坪上“放飞自我”，但又总是张弛有度，不会去做危险的事情。</p><p>她没有去学校上学读书，而是在家，和妹妹玛格丽特一起学习语言、音乐和舞蹈，由家庭教师专门授课。父母并不要求她们在学业上大有所成，但伊丽莎白总是严格要求自己，坚持制定每一天的阅读计划。</p><p>这段隐逸的时光定格在1936年，意外来临，由于她的伯父爱德华八世“爱美人不爱江山”而被迫逊位，父亲阿尔伯特继承王位，称为乔治六世，她也随之成为了准继承人。</p><p>10岁，从懵懂的小女孩，到君王候选人，她一下成为了公众瞩目的焦点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c337942d94fa9656356a88abd33c37\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>成为“准继承人”后，王室为她制定了一套专属课程，学习《宪法的制定法与习惯法》《英国社会史》、《帝国联邦》、《英国宪法》等，帮助她积淀知识，理解英国政坛。</p><p>她花了6年的时间，学完了《宪法的制定法与习惯法》，反复在书本上勾画、注解，并在伊顿公学副教务长亨利·马汀爵士的帮助下，深入理解立宪政体和议会制度。</p><p>她的母亲伊丽莎白·鲍斯·莱昂是苏格兰的名门望族，贵族的那套礼仪课从未落下，想把女儿培养成为社交场上的名媛，得体，又不古板乏味。</p><p>《伊丽莎白女王传》中记载到：王后告诉她，一个高贵的女士的后背永远都不能靠在椅背上。后来，她一直保持坐姿前靠，最长达几个小时之久。</p><p>“女王”的第一课开课了，王后作为老师，告诉女儿：<b>“避免嘲笑、不许炫耀、和声细语、从不吼叫和吓唬、时刻控制情绪”，“这样才能取得信任，赢得爱戴。”</b></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>编号230873号</b></p><p>1939年，德国袭击波兰，二战全面爆发，欧洲陷入战乱。</p><p>1940年，德军开始轰炸英国本土，不久后，伊丽莎白和妹妹与300万伦敦平民（以儿童为主）一样，被送往伦敦周边的小城镇和乡村避难。</p><p>和普通“难民”不同，英国政府给王室安排了一个秘密城堡。在城堡里，有人候着，有舞会，有宴会，过着相对安逸的生活。</p><p>但伊丽莎白公主仍心系万千民众，发表了对家人、对失散儿童的演讲，成功安抚民心，在历史上意义重大。</p><p><b>“这个国家的数千万人不得不离开家园，与他们的父母分开。我和我的妹妹玛格丽特·罗斯为您感到非常难过，我们明白离开您最喜欢的人意味着什么。对于生活在新环境中的您，我们向您表示真正的同情，同时我们也感谢那些接纳您的好心人。”</b></p><p>1940年10月13日，英国国家广播电视台（BBC）播报。这时她年仅14岁，这也是她的第一次公开演讲。</p><p>不拘泥于城堡的安逸，1945年，19岁的伊丽莎白主动说服父亲，允许她直接参与协助战争。</p><p>而后，她加入了后方防卫支援部队“国内妇女支援部队”（Women&#39;s Auxiliary Territorial Service），编号为第230873号。</p><p>在部队，她亲自驾驶汽车，修理汽车，这大概是英国王室中第一个经过正式训练的汽车修理员。由于表现出色，她获得了荣誉少尉军衔。</p><p>战乱期间，一位浅黄色头发，铜蓝色眼睛的“希腊式美男子”，成为了她的精神慰藉。</p><p>1939年，她参观英国皇家海军学校，遇到了英俊潇洒的菲利普王子，两人一见钟情，从那一刻起，她从未再喜欢过其他男人。那时，伊丽莎白13岁，菲利普18岁。</p><p>此后，两人经常书信来往，互诉衷肠。菲利普对于女王来说，很特别，当所有人都在恭维她的时候，菲利普会告诉她应该做什么，怎么做，急了也会说她是个“笨蛋”。</p><p>他似乎有点大男子主义，独立，倔强，和伊丽莎白的性格互补。</p><p>二战结束后，菲利普放弃王位继承权、改变国籍和宗教信仰，在1947年11月20日和伊丽莎白结为夫妻，这为历经战乱的英国人民带来了慰藉，国民都祝福他们。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce6e55802b197aa730f54b000eb2441\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>结婚不久，他们开启了甜蜜的世界之旅，同时也不忘慰问英联邦国家及地区。</p><p>这时候的伊丽莎白仍向往爱情，向往浪漫，未褪去少女的样子。</p><p>1997年，在他们结婚50周年之际，伊丽莎白曾这样评价菲利普：<b>“很简单，他一直是我的力量，这些年来一直存在。”</b></p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>“上树是公主，下树是女王”</b></p><p>由于父亲的身体每况愈下，伊丽莎白会代替父亲出访，她先后去到了希腊、意大利、马耳他、加拿大、华盛顿、澳大利亚与新西兰等。</p><p>1952年，伊丽莎白在肯尼亚收到了父亲英王乔治六世去世的噩耗，以及自己即将登基加冕的消息。</p><p>在得知继位的那一刻，她正在一个树上旅馆中，这段经历，被当地人妙称为“上树是公主，下树是女王。”</p><p>1953年6月2日，伊丽莎白的加冕典礼在威斯敏斯特教堂举行。</p><p>此刻，她发誓：“既然上帝旨意要她做王室的继承人，她理应担起这份义不容辞的责任——绝不推卸，永不退位。”</p><p><b>此刻，她开始重拾王者的素养，真正进入到英国女王这一角色。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c2f5fd97ab21aec7e46fadd3a3aa69\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>她的丈夫菲利普亲王一直是一位追求浪漫，追求独立的人，他结婚后仍坚持继续他的海军生涯，伊丽莎白也非常支持。但伊丽莎白登基后，一切就改变了。</p><p>在伊丽莎白的加冕礼上，菲利普向妻子下跪宣誓：“我，菲利普，爱丁堡公爵，愿终生成为你的臣民并且尊敬你，我愿意效忠你……”</p><p>这一来，意味着菲利普不能再做自己喜欢的事，逐渐失去了自我。由此，他产生了负面情绪，不断地制造“花边新闻”来发泄心中的不满。</p><p>就情感层面来说，这对于一个家庭来说是“不幸”的。此后的女王开始辗转于国内外政治，再也没有时间去做一名尽职尽责的好妻子，好母亲。</p><p>关于菲利普的绯闻很多，他是世界公认的“花花公子”。关于他出轨的消息，女王气愤不已，但不是气事情本身，气的是菲利普损坏了王室形象。他们曾分居过一段时间，为了王室的尊严，女王选择隐忍。</p><p><b>他们彼此之间达成了共识，就是努力扮演好夫妻的角色。</b></p><p>登基后的女王早就没有了儿女情长，一心投身于国家和王室，履行着女王的操守。</p><p><b>05</b></p><p><b>“贾府老太太”</b></p><p>对于政治事务，女王更多的是倾听，完美诠释了君主立宪制下元首的职责：代表国家形象，不干涉首相的政策，凝聚国家人民。</p><p>虽然伊丽莎白二世是有名无实的英联邦元首，但她却通过这一角色，团结了英联邦。新西兰前总理大卫·郎伊曾说：<b>“我们在争斗，而她在团结。”</b></p><p>女王96岁生日当天公布了最新民调结果，有近2/3的加拿大人仍对伊丽莎白二世持有好感，但有51%的加拿大人反对继续保持君主立宪制，还有近60%的人表示，假如英女王离去，至少会对他们产生一定影响。</p><p>有人调侃道，英国女王就像红楼梦里的贾母，尊贵、地位是独一无二的，却不主动管事。平日里平易近人，但稍一动怒孩子们就敬畏三分。贾府需要这样一位老太太，她是贾府的象征，是贾府凝聚力的人格表现，没了贾母，贾府或许就不再是曾经的贾府了。</p><p>伊丽莎白二世也一样，从二战开始就建立了很大的民心基础，几乎成了这半个世纪英国的象征，她的存在就是大英帝国曾经辉煌的象征。</p><p>从二战的第一次公开演讲，到随父亲游历多个英联邦国家地区，再到后来亲力亲为，走访上百个国家和地区。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d31c13dfdd538e64b0ff5fedd31f0dab\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2016年女王到访卡迪夫</p><p>她创造了一个新纪录——<b>英国历史上外访最多的君主，直到96岁高龄，她仍坚持外访。</b></p><p>1986年10月12日，一架从香港飞来的喷气式客机，徐徐降落在北京首都国际机场，在金秋夕阳的辉映下，身着一袭黄色衫裙的伊丽莎白二世慢慢走下舷梯。</p><p>1984年中国和英国签署解决香港问题的协议，消除了两国关系中最大，也是最后的障碍。中英各方面的关系与合作迅速发展，一度被誉为中英关系的“史上最佳时期”。</p><p>在这样的背景下，英国女王的首次访华具有重大意义。</p><p>访问期间，邓小平同志说：<b>“感谢你不远万里来看我这个老头子”</b>，女王回应道：<b>“我就是来看你这老头子的”</b>。</p><p>女王表示，到中国来访问是她的一个夙愿，她一直期待这次访问。访问结束时，女王给李先念主席亲笔写了封感谢信。</p><p><b>“希望这种良好关系能继续下去并得到发展。毫无疑问，这次访问已在英国国内引起了人们的极大关注。我相信，这将有助于两国人民和政府认识到未来建立更密切关系的潜力。”</b></p><p>女王向来是喜欢中国的，曾先后与中国五任领导人会面。丈夫菲利普亲王比较随性，时常在媒体面前打趣中国形象，女王都会积极圆场，批评亲王的言论，这样的女王得到了中国人民的爱戴。</p><p><b>06</b></p><p><b>五支红玫瑰</b></p><p>对于宗教、道德标准和家庭事务，女王都非常保守。</p><p>她重宗教，重责任，重加冕的誓言，这是为什么她不选择退位的原因之一。</p><p>像她的母亲一样，她从未原谅伯父爱德华八世退位一事。在她看来，伯父抛弃了自己的职责，被迫让父亲负担起这个责任，加重父亲病情。</p><p>她一直没有忘记1947年许下的诺言，如今她已经96岁，在位的70年里，她为国际团结做出了巨大的贡献。</p><p>伊丽莎白二世登基后，一直秉承着英国王室恪守坚忍的准则，从不张扬，从不显露个性，不苟言笑的她常常得不到国民的爱戴。</p><p>常常有人戏称她为“冷血温莎”，在上个世纪六七十年代，甚至流传出攻击女王的歌曲、恶搞女王的画。</p><p>可是，不管别人怎么抨击她，她依然恪守坚忍，从不针锋相对，从不反击回应，波澜不惊。</p><p>然而，这张不苟言笑的面具在1997年被摘下来了。</p><p>1997年，“戴安娜王妃”因车祸不幸去世，“对前儿媳的去世保持沉默”让女王处于风口浪尖，当时的英国媒体、民众对王室充斥着不满，王室被批冷血无情。</p><p>而后，女王出席戴安娜的葬礼，在灵柩前，鞠躬弯腰。这个举动，安抚了民众的情绪，赢得了民众的谅解。</p><p>当时，女王沿着前来悼念的人群向前走着，一个11岁的小女孩伸手，递给了她五支红玫瑰。</p><p>女王停下脚步问：<b>“你想让我帮你把花献给王妃吗？”</b></p><p>小女孩回答说：<b>“不，女王陛下，花是送给您的。”</b></p><p>在接过玫瑰花的一刻，女王恪守的英国王室的操守，瞬间幻化。</p><p>在后续的民间访问活动中，女王逐渐改变了与民众的交流方式，变得更加亲和。</p><p>为君者，需拿得起，放得下，她逐渐摘下了演员的面具。</p><p>她开始追星，露齿大笑，穿各种糖果色的套装，收集各种类型的帽子。</p><p>她喜欢养柯基犬，每次出门，都要牵着，“女王和她的柯基犬”成为媒体的新焦点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a3121c7060c8eba466ed884189c78d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>近年来，有关英国女王病逝的假消息层出不穷。今年2月，女王确诊新冠。</p><p>近期，女王因行动不便减少出席公共场合，在2月的一次公开会面上，她也曾表示<b>“我就站在这儿了，如你们所见，我不能动。”</b></p><p>女王的身体情况成了未知数，但是女王一直保持规律的作息，晚11点准时入寝。</p><p>几十年来，她一直坚持用“王室步行法”在温莎公园里散步，70岁之前，她还经常骑马散步。</p><p>女王坚持吃时令蔬果，不吃过季果蔬，她的饮食习惯有个特点，定时定量，注重少而精，再美味的食物也只吃一两口，女王前“御厨”达伦·麦格雷迪曾透露。</p><p><b>这些或许都是女王长寿的秘诀——严于律己。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae2d9f3c95dfb32937a9c7699cbea9\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2021年4月9日，一直陪伴在女王身边的菲利普亲王去世了，女王又失去了一个牵挂。</p><p>晚年，菲利普和女王的感情反而好了起来，孩子们总不让女王省心，反而这个出轨、喝花酒的菲利普，还老老实实地陪着她，甚至会准备一些小惊喜。</p><p>有一次，菲利普扮成卫兵站在女王旁边，女王认出了菲利普，在镜头前偷偷地笑了，难得露出如此少女的表情。</p><p>弥留之际，菲利普告诉女王，要将自己葬在温莎城堡的草坪下，那是女王平时遛柯基的地方。</p><p>他们或许诠释了爱情美好的姿态，那就是相互陪伴，一直惦记。</p><p>2022年4月21日，女王迎来了96岁生日。</p><p>这一天，她在英格兰东部的桑德林汉姆庄园平淡度过，没有礼炮，没有礼花，没有盛宴，只有曾经和已故丈夫菲利普亲王的美好回忆。</p><p><b>07</b></p><p><b>写在最后</b></p><p>近年来，每年都有人传言“伦敦桥倒了”（英国女王去世的代号），关于女王去世的声音从来没有停止过，甚至有商家利用“女王去世”话题，生产女王“纪念品”，试图牟取暴利。</p><p>女王的生活跨越2个世纪，与经济大萧条伴生，历经二战的洗礼，见证美苏冷战和苏联解体，也看到过人类登月的伟大壮举，与世界各国和平交好传递友谊等等。</p><p>有人把女王比喻为现代史的活化石，她存在的意义已经超越国别和政治。</p><p>我们更希望看到大家讨论她的可爱，她的经历，她的主张，以及她带给时代的希望和意义。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1662648168034","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-08 22:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.163.com/dy/article/H7GMC53O0541TT9T.html><strong>易简读书</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间9月8日，英国白金汉宫表示，由于医生担心英国女王伊丽莎白二世的身体健康情况，伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。在英国女王伊丽莎白二世身体欠佳的消息传出后，包括女儿安妮公主和小儿子爱德华王子在内的四个孩子目前都在苏格兰的巴尔莫勒尔堡陪伴女王。查尔斯王子和卡米拉此前也前往巴尔莫勒尔和女王在一起。据报道，英国女王的直系亲属已被告知女王身体欠佳消息。央视新闻报道截图伊丽莎白二世：“铁打的女王，流水的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.163.com/dy/article/H7GMC53O0541TT9T.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1d8b39f527b86b564d610243acc7b8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.163.com/dy/article/H7GMC53O0541TT9T.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193358135","content_text":"当地时间9月8日，英国白金汉宫表示，由于医生担心英国女王伊丽莎白二世的身体健康情况，伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。在英国女王伊丽莎白二世身体欠佳的消息传出后，包括女儿安妮公主和小儿子爱德华王子在内的四个孩子目前都在苏格兰的巴尔莫勒尔堡陪伴女王。查尔斯王子和卡米拉此前也前往巴尔莫勒尔和女王在一起。据报道，英国女王的直系亲属已被告知女王身体欠佳消息。央视新闻报道截图伊丽莎白二世：“铁打的女王，流水的首相”，见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王！穿着藏绿色斗篷，顶着花白蓬蓬头，一脸慈祥地站树下，牵着两匹小白马。这是英国女王伊丽莎白二世96岁的生日纪念照，伦敦时间4月21日，摄于温莎城堡。01“欲戴皇冠，必承其重”实际上，“4月21日”只是她今年两个生日中的一个，据悉，英国将在6月2日至5日举行女王“官方”生日庆典，欢庆女王登基70周年（“白金禧年”），致敬这位英国迄今最长寿、在位最久的君主。女王的全称为“托上帝洪恩，大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国以及其他领土和属地的女王、英联邦元首、基督教的保护者伊丽莎白二世”。登基70年来，伊丽莎白二世历经多个时代传奇，见证14任英国首相，可谓“铁打的女王，流水的首相”。同时，她见证了英国的兴衰，从日不落帝国到英国脱欧“黑天鹅”，影响力逐渐退却。她的一生也几乎贯穿整个现当代史，近百年人类世界翻天覆地的变化流转在她的眼眸。英国《金融时报》曾评论道，96岁高龄的女王已经成为这个瞬息万变的世界里“连续和传承”的象征。伊丽莎白二世不仅是英国的女王，同时也是15个英联邦国家及地区的女王。在位期间，她曾外访300多次，到过上百个国家和地区，逐渐成为英国最为知名的代言人。“英国象征”“英国代言人”已经成为了她生存的标签，她不想撕掉，坦然接受，因为她曾在第一次访问南非的时候就下定决心“我在你们所有人面前宣布，我的一生，无论长短，都将献给你们，为我们都属于的大家庭（our great imperial family）服务。”那时，她还只是年仅21岁的公主。“欲戴皇冠，必承其重”或许在1953年真正戴上皇冠的那一刻起，她真正明白了自己不再是贤妻良母，而是嫁给了英国，成为了英国的女人，于是她开始“伪装”自己。她在大众面前永远沉着冷静，高贵典雅，你永远也抓拍不到她慌张的蛛丝马迹，因为这是作为70年跨世纪“女王”的素养。02天降王位其实，谁生来都不是女王，伊丽莎白也如此，10岁以前的她还是无忧无虑的小公主，直到1936年爱德华八世被迫逊位。1926年4月21日雨夜，伊丽莎白出生在伦敦西区布鲁顿街17号，祖父母家中。她的童年充满欢乐，与父母 、妹妹在苏格兰、英格兰乡下过着田园小生活，日常放风筝、骑小车。她不会放大公主的身份，喜欢和同龄小伙伴在草坪上“放飞自我”，但又总是张弛有度，不会去做危险的事情。她没有去学校上学读书，而是在家，和妹妹玛格丽特一起学习语言、音乐和舞蹈，由家庭教师专门授课。父母并不要求她们在学业上大有所成，但伊丽莎白总是严格要求自己，坚持制定每一天的阅读计划。这段隐逸的时光定格在1936年，意外来临，由于她的伯父爱德华八世“爱美人不爱江山”而被迫逊位，父亲阿尔伯特继承王位，称为乔治六世，她也随之成为了准继承人。10岁，从懵懂的小女孩，到君王候选人，她一下成为了公众瞩目的焦点。成为“准继承人”后，王室为她制定了一套专属课程，学习《宪法的制定法与习惯法》《英国社会史》、《帝国联邦》、《英国宪法》等，帮助她积淀知识，理解英国政坛。她花了6年的时间，学完了《宪法的制定法与习惯法》，反复在书本上勾画、注解，并在伊顿公学副教务长亨利·马汀爵士的帮助下，深入理解立宪政体和议会制度。她的母亲伊丽莎白·鲍斯·莱昂是苏格兰的名门望族，贵族的那套礼仪课从未落下，想把女儿培养成为社交场上的名媛，得体，又不古板乏味。《伊丽莎白女王传》中记载到：王后告诉她，一个高贵的女士的后背永远都不能靠在椅背上。后来，她一直保持坐姿前靠，最长达几个小时之久。“女王”的第一课开课了，王后作为老师，告诉女儿：“避免嘲笑、不许炫耀、和声细语、从不吼叫和吓唬、时刻控制情绪”，“这样才能取得信任，赢得爱戴。”03编号230873号1939年，德国袭击波兰，二战全面爆发，欧洲陷入战乱。1940年，德军开始轰炸英国本土，不久后，伊丽莎白和妹妹与300万伦敦平民（以儿童为主）一样，被送往伦敦周边的小城镇和乡村避难。和普通“难民”不同，英国政府给王室安排了一个秘密城堡。在城堡里，有人候着，有舞会，有宴会，过着相对安逸的生活。但伊丽莎白公主仍心系万千民众，发表了对家人、对失散儿童的演讲，成功安抚民心，在历史上意义重大。“这个国家的数千万人不得不离开家园，与他们的父母分开。我和我的妹妹玛格丽特·罗斯为您感到非常难过，我们明白离开您最喜欢的人意味着什么。对于生活在新环境中的您，我们向您表示真正的同情，同时我们也感谢那些接纳您的好心人。”1940年10月13日，英国国家广播电视台（BBC）播报。这时她年仅14岁，这也是她的第一次公开演讲。不拘泥于城堡的安逸，1945年，19岁的伊丽莎白主动说服父亲，允许她直接参与协助战争。而后，她加入了后方防卫支援部队“国内妇女支援部队”（Women's Auxiliary Territorial Service），编号为第230873号。在部队，她亲自驾驶汽车，修理汽车，这大概是英国王室中第一个经过正式训练的汽车修理员。由于表现出色，她获得了荣誉少尉军衔。战乱期间，一位浅黄色头发，铜蓝色眼睛的“希腊式美男子”，成为了她的精神慰藉。1939年，她参观英国皇家海军学校，遇到了英俊潇洒的菲利普王子，两人一见钟情，从那一刻起，她从未再喜欢过其他男人。那时，伊丽莎白13岁，菲利普18岁。此后，两人经常书信来往，互诉衷肠。菲利普对于女王来说，很特别，当所有人都在恭维她的时候，菲利普会告诉她应该做什么，怎么做，急了也会说她是个“笨蛋”。他似乎有点大男子主义，独立，倔强，和伊丽莎白的性格互补。二战结束后，菲利普放弃王位继承权、改变国籍和宗教信仰，在1947年11月20日和伊丽莎白结为夫妻，这为历经战乱的英国人民带来了慰藉，国民都祝福他们。结婚不久，他们开启了甜蜜的世界之旅，同时也不忘慰问英联邦国家及地区。这时候的伊丽莎白仍向往爱情，向往浪漫，未褪去少女的样子。1997年，在他们结婚50周年之际，伊丽莎白曾这样评价菲利普：“很简单，他一直是我的力量，这些年来一直存在。”04“上树是公主，下树是女王”由于父亲的身体每况愈下，伊丽莎白会代替父亲出访，她先后去到了希腊、意大利、马耳他、加拿大、华盛顿、澳大利亚与新西兰等。1952年，伊丽莎白在肯尼亚收到了父亲英王乔治六世去世的噩耗，以及自己即将登基加冕的消息。在得知继位的那一刻，她正在一个树上旅馆中，这段经历，被当地人妙称为“上树是公主，下树是女王。”1953年6月2日，伊丽莎白的加冕典礼在威斯敏斯特教堂举行。此刻，她发誓：“既然上帝旨意要她做王室的继承人，她理应担起这份义不容辞的责任——绝不推卸，永不退位。”此刻，她开始重拾王者的素养，真正进入到英国女王这一角色。她的丈夫菲利普亲王一直是一位追求浪漫，追求独立的人，他结婚后仍坚持继续他的海军生涯，伊丽莎白也非常支持。但伊丽莎白登基后，一切就改变了。在伊丽莎白的加冕礼上，菲利普向妻子下跪宣誓：“我，菲利普，爱丁堡公爵，愿终生成为你的臣民并且尊敬你，我愿意效忠你……”这一来，意味着菲利普不能再做自己喜欢的事，逐渐失去了自我。由此，他产生了负面情绪，不断地制造“花边新闻”来发泄心中的不满。就情感层面来说，这对于一个家庭来说是“不幸”的。此后的女王开始辗转于国内外政治，再也没有时间去做一名尽职尽责的好妻子，好母亲。关于菲利普的绯闻很多，他是世界公认的“花花公子”。关于他出轨的消息，女王气愤不已，但不是气事情本身，气的是菲利普损坏了王室形象。他们曾分居过一段时间，为了王室的尊严，女王选择隐忍。他们彼此之间达成了共识，就是努力扮演好夫妻的角色。登基后的女王早就没有了儿女情长，一心投身于国家和王室，履行着女王的操守。05“贾府老太太”对于政治事务，女王更多的是倾听，完美诠释了君主立宪制下元首的职责：代表国家形象，不干涉首相的政策，凝聚国家人民。虽然伊丽莎白二世是有名无实的英联邦元首，但她却通过这一角色，团结了英联邦。新西兰前总理大卫·郎伊曾说：“我们在争斗，而她在团结。”女王96岁生日当天公布了最新民调结果，有近2/3的加拿大人仍对伊丽莎白二世持有好感，但有51%的加拿大人反对继续保持君主立宪制，还有近60%的人表示，假如英女王离去，至少会对他们产生一定影响。有人调侃道，英国女王就像红楼梦里的贾母，尊贵、地位是独一无二的，却不主动管事。平日里平易近人，但稍一动怒孩子们就敬畏三分。贾府需要这样一位老太太，她是贾府的象征，是贾府凝聚力的人格表现，没了贾母，贾府或许就不再是曾经的贾府了。伊丽莎白二世也一样，从二战开始就建立了很大的民心基础，几乎成了这半个世纪英国的象征，她的存在就是大英帝国曾经辉煌的象征。从二战的第一次公开演讲，到随父亲游历多个英联邦国家地区，再到后来亲力亲为，走访上百个国家和地区。2016年女王到访卡迪夫她创造了一个新纪录——英国历史上外访最多的君主，直到96岁高龄，她仍坚持外访。1986年10月12日，一架从香港飞来的喷气式客机，徐徐降落在北京首都国际机场，在金秋夕阳的辉映下，身着一袭黄色衫裙的伊丽莎白二世慢慢走下舷梯。1984年中国和英国签署解决香港问题的协议，消除了两国关系中最大，也是最后的障碍。中英各方面的关系与合作迅速发展，一度被誉为中英关系的“史上最佳时期”。在这样的背景下，英国女王的首次访华具有重大意义。访问期间，邓小平同志说：“感谢你不远万里来看我这个老头子”，女王回应道：“我就是来看你这老头子的”。女王表示，到中国来访问是她的一个夙愿，她一直期待这次访问。访问结束时，女王给李先念主席亲笔写了封感谢信。“希望这种良好关系能继续下去并得到发展。毫无疑问，这次访问已在英国国内引起了人们的极大关注。我相信，这将有助于两国人民和政府认识到未来建立更密切关系的潜力。”女王向来是喜欢中国的，曾先后与中国五任领导人会面。丈夫菲利普亲王比较随性，时常在媒体面前打趣中国形象，女王都会积极圆场，批评亲王的言论，这样的女王得到了中国人民的爱戴。06五支红玫瑰对于宗教、道德标准和家庭事务，女王都非常保守。她重宗教，重责任，重加冕的誓言，这是为什么她不选择退位的原因之一。像她的母亲一样，她从未原谅伯父爱德华八世退位一事。在她看来，伯父抛弃了自己的职责，被迫让父亲负担起这个责任，加重父亲病情。她一直没有忘记1947年许下的诺言，如今她已经96岁，在位的70年里，她为国际团结做出了巨大的贡献。伊丽莎白二世登基后，一直秉承着英国王室恪守坚忍的准则，从不张扬，从不显露个性，不苟言笑的她常常得不到国民的爱戴。常常有人戏称她为“冷血温莎”，在上个世纪六七十年代，甚至流传出攻击女王的歌曲、恶搞女王的画。可是，不管别人怎么抨击她，她依然恪守坚忍，从不针锋相对，从不反击回应，波澜不惊。然而，这张不苟言笑的面具在1997年被摘下来了。1997年，“戴安娜王妃”因车祸不幸去世，“对前儿媳的去世保持沉默”让女王处于风口浪尖，当时的英国媒体、民众对王室充斥着不满，王室被批冷血无情。而后，女王出席戴安娜的葬礼，在灵柩前，鞠躬弯腰。这个举动，安抚了民众的情绪，赢得了民众的谅解。当时，女王沿着前来悼念的人群向前走着，一个11岁的小女孩伸手，递给了她五支红玫瑰。女王停下脚步问：“你想让我帮你把花献给王妃吗？”小女孩回答说：“不，女王陛下，花是送给您的。”在接过玫瑰花的一刻，女王恪守的英国王室的操守，瞬间幻化。在后续的民间访问活动中，女王逐渐改变了与民众的交流方式，变得更加亲和。为君者，需拿得起，放得下，她逐渐摘下了演员的面具。她开始追星，露齿大笑，穿各种糖果色的套装，收集各种类型的帽子。她喜欢养柯基犬，每次出门，都要牵着，“女王和她的柯基犬”成为媒体的新焦点。近年来，有关英国女王病逝的假消息层出不穷。今年2月，女王确诊新冠。近期，女王因行动不便减少出席公共场合，在2月的一次公开会面上，她也曾表示“我就站在这儿了，如你们所见，我不能动。”女王的身体情况成了未知数，但是女王一直保持规律的作息，晚11点准时入寝。几十年来，她一直坚持用“王室步行法”在温莎公园里散步，70岁之前，她还经常骑马散步。女王坚持吃时令蔬果，不吃过季果蔬，她的饮食习惯有个特点，定时定量，注重少而精，再美味的食物也只吃一两口，女王前“御厨”达伦·麦格雷迪曾透露。这些或许都是女王长寿的秘诀——严于律己。2021年4月9日，一直陪伴在女王身边的菲利普亲王去世了，女王又失去了一个牵挂。晚年，菲利普和女王的感情反而好了起来，孩子们总不让女王省心，反而这个出轨、喝花酒的菲利普，还老老实实地陪着她，甚至会准备一些小惊喜。有一次，菲利普扮成卫兵站在女王旁边，女王认出了菲利普，在镜头前偷偷地笑了，难得露出如此少女的表情。弥留之际，菲利普告诉女王，要将自己葬在温莎城堡的草坪下，那是女王平时遛柯基的地方。他们或许诠释了爱情美好的姿态，那就是相互陪伴，一直惦记。2022年4月21日，女王迎来了96岁生日。这一天，她在英格兰东部的桑德林汉姆庄园平淡度过，没有礼炮，没有礼花，没有盛宴，只有曾经和已故丈夫菲利普亲王的美好回忆。07写在最后近年来，每年都有人传言“伦敦桥倒了”（英国女王去世的代号），关于女王去世的声音从来没有停止过，甚至有商家利用“女王去世”话题，生产女王“纪念品”，试图牟取暴利。女王的生活跨越2个世纪，与经济大萧条伴生，历经二战的洗礼，见证美苏冷战和苏联解体，也看到过人类登月的伟大壮举，与世界各国和平交好传递友谊等等。有人把女王比喻为现代史的活化石，她存在的意义已经超越国别和政治。我们更希望看到大家讨论她的可爱，她的经历，她的主张，以及她带给时代的希望和意义。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938579449,"gmtCreate":1662643241981,"gmtModify":1676537107973,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938579449","repostId":"2265788073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265788073","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1662597977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265788073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"想超越苹果，越来越难了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265788073","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1 小时 40 分钟的线上发布会，昨晚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。</p><p>健康功能更贴心的 Apple Watch S8，全新且硬核的 Apple Watch Ultra。</p><p>更换芯片后大幅提升降噪能力，比之前更不容易丢的 AirPods Pro（第二代）。</p><p>还有就是每年秋季铁打不动的固定节目，全新一代 iPhone：iPhone 14 系列。</p><p>这一次，iPhone 的正面变了。</p><p>Apple Watch：健康玩儿明白后，该对新市场下手了</p><p>即便你是个重度 Apple Watch 用户，如果只看外观，确实也很难分辨出 Apple Watch S8 和之前产品的区别。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但毫不夸张，Apple Watch S8，应该算是近几年 Apple Watch 这条产品线中，硬件更新幅度最“要命”的一次。</p><p>苹果在 Apple Watch S8 上，新增了温度传感器。最大的作用，是通过跟测睡眠时候的体温，呈现长期的体温变化情况，每 5 秒读取一次体温，来提升女性经期跟踪功能的准确性，更精准预测排卵日。watchOS 系统还会通过对于用户体征的测量，来预警经期的紊乱或推迟。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>这个功能，对于想备孕和想避孕的女性，同样有用。</p><p>而在过去，对于大部分女性，经期跟踪，往往只能通过一些 app 来进行手动标注，几乎没有任何<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>硬件会关注到女性经期这一领域。</p><p>毕竟对于很多厂商，如果在智能穿戴设备上放一个温度传感器，大概率匹配的功能，会走向发烧监测这一服务新冠预防的环节。</p><p>除了新增的温度传感器，Apple Watch S8 还升级了陀螺仪和加速度感应器，配合麦克风，气压计，GPS 和苹果号称超过 100 万小时真实驾驶和车祸数据调校出来的算法，Apple Watch 可以在用户发生车祸的第一时间进行紧急呼叫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>全新的高 G 值加速器，可以感知的最大 G 值，是 256G。</p><p>这是个什么概念？</p><p>F1 是世界上最快的场地赛车，发生事故时车手往往会承受远超日常车祸的撞击力度。最近两年最严重的 F1 车祸，2020 年巴林站大奖赛，格罗斯让所承受的撞击，是 67 个 G。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而在日常生活中，普通人能承受的最大 G 值，大概只有 3.5G。</p><p>车祸报警的安全功能确实对大部分人来说，可能知道换了表，都不会用一次，但在危机时刻有可能救命的功能，有总比没有好。</p><p>如果说 Apple Watch S8 和全新的入门款 SE 是一次常规迭代，Apple Watch Ultra 则是苹果对一个新领域发起进军的第一声号角。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra 屏幕更大，更亮，机身也更坚固，扬声器和麦克风都更多，电池续航也更长，甚至还新增了一个可供用户自定义的实体按键以及全新设计的应对不同运动场景的表带，都在导向一个结果：苹果开始对专业运动手表领域下手了。</p><p>钛合金表身，49mm 表盘，2000nit屏幕亮度，双 GPS，零下 20 到零上 55 摄氏度的工作温度区间，WR100 的 100 米防水认证，毫无疑问，这是最强的 Apple Watch。适合需求最高的精英运动员。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然，这也并不意味着你不是精英运动员，Apple Watch Ultra 就不适合你。</p><p>如果你对瑞士传统手表足够熟悉，就应该了解，劳力士戴通拿是赛车表，水鬼是潜水表，IWC 万国擅长做飞行计时，某种意义上，手表是一种身份标签。</p><p>而 Apple Watch Ultra，代表智能手表，终于也可以出现在最严苛的自然环境中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有一说一，Apple Watch 从诞生到昨晚发布第 8 代，一路走来并不是一帆风顺，在第一代时，Apple Watch 走了想成为奢侈品的弯路，但错误的指向很快被矫正，苹果开始在健康监控和运动监控两个领域重点发力，并且逐渐在往两个方向的最终目标不断发展。</p><p>一个是能让所有普通人只要戴上 Apple Watch，无需过多设置，就能随时监控自己尽可能多身体指标，对健康问题提前做出预警。</p><p>一个是让世界上最顶级的运动员，也能觉得，Apple Watch 这样一款所有人都能买到的消费级智能穿戴设备，完全能满足自己远超常人想象的训练需求。</p><p>从现在来看，这两条路，苹果都走得相当稳健。</p><p>iPhone 14 系列：用最巧妙的方式，解决最棘手的问题。</p><p>也许是 mini 机型在前两代的销售情况并没有达到市场预期。在 iPhone 14 这一代机型上，苹果砍掉了 mini，把之前 Plus 的型号拿了回来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在外观上，iPhone 14 对比 iPhone 13，确实没有太多改变，而 iPhone 14 Plus，则看上去像是放大版的 iPhone 14。甚至是处理器，iPhone 14 和 14 Plus，也用了和上代一样的 A15 仿生芯片。</p><p>但如果仔细对比，就会发现，对比 iPhone 13 上使用的 A15 芯片，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的 A15 芯片多了一颗图形处理器。影像硬件也进行了更新，后置的主摄光圈和传感器都更大，全新的前置摄像头低光环境表现更好，也支持自动对焦。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>最直接的改变，就是需要更多图形处理性能的游戏会表现更好，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的拍照和视频能力也能得到直接提升。</p><p>感知最明显的，应该是全新的视频运动模式，通过处理器运算，大幅降低运动时拍摄的抖动。甚至某种意义上，对于 iPhone 14 系列用户，手机稳定器这个品类，大概率是再也不需要了。</p><p>即便实话实说，iPhone 14/14 Plus 看上去更新幅度不大，但很明显，iPhone 14 Plus 会成为今年年底到明年手机市场的最大爆款，绝对足以让国内各家手机厂商嘴上不服，但心里很慌。</p><p>今年的 iPhone，最大的变化在 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 两款机型身上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>正面，刘海屏没了。</p><p>虽然因为 FaceID 所需要的结构光传感器和前置摄像头无法隐藏，但苹果还是想出了一个绝妙的主意来把这块儿“视觉障碍”给藏起来。于是就有了“灵动岛”设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>简单来说，“灵动岛”是一套全新的通知设计风格，通过系统 UI 的灵活改变，尽可能隐藏住屏幕上不可回避的“黑斑”，实际看上去，也比大部分绞尽脑汁想要做屏下摄像头或者是尽可能缩小屏幕打孔的手机高明很多。</p><p>因为动的是系统软件设计，并没有影响整体功能。</p><p>而且，苹果还对 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 的屏幕素质做了进一步升级，最高亮度直接翻倍，提升到 2000 nit，即便室外阳光耀眼也能看清屏幕，早年间在 Apple Watch 上已经应用成熟的可变刷新率 LTPO 屏幕，来到 iPhone 上，就给了 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 目前市面上最好的“全天候显示”体验。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>叫“全天候显示”，是因为实现原理是通过降低屏幕刷新率和亮度来省电，不影响显示内容，而非大部分 Android 机型的“熄屏显示”逻辑，通过只调用少数像素点显示零碎内容来省电。</p><p>在每年 Pro 系列都会突出的拍摄配置上，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 也做了近些年的最大升级。主摄从 1200 万像素直接升级到 4800 万像素，对于大多数照片，四合一像素传感器会将每 4 个像素合并为一个大像素（单位像素尺寸相当于 2.44 微米），从而可在低光条件下拍摄到优质的影像，将照片大小保持在 1200 万像素。而当用户选择 ProRAW 格式，4800 万像素会尽数输出，呈现出最多的画面细节。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在 iPhone 13 系列上看上去更像试水功能的电影效果模式视频，也在 14 Pro/Pro Max 上更新了规格，支持 4K 30 fps 和 4K 24 fps 视频拍摄。更贴近真实的电影参数。</p><p>在  14 Pro/Pro Max 机身中搭载的芯片，也是最新的 4nm 制程 A16 芯片，按照苹果的说法，6 核中央处理器带来的速度提升至高可达 40%，并可举重若轻地处理高负载任务。A16 仿生芯片采用经加速的 5 核图像处理器，内存带宽提升多达 50%。</p><p>总而言之，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max，从里到外，都是全新的。</p><p>AirPods Pro 2：没有竞争对手，苹果就决定超越自己</p><p>相比于手机，手表和平板，苹果 AirPods 产品线的更新频率最低，原因也很好理解：确实没有竞争对手。</p><p>但昨晚，苹果还是发布了 AirPods Pro 的第二代，外观没太多改变，还是白色的机身，还是像豌豆射手的耳机本体，但性能做了大幅提升。</p><p>全新的 H2 芯片，让第二代的 AirPods Pro 降噪能力是上一代的两倍，更好的计算能力也让 AirPods Pro 第二代的音质有了明显提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然耳机本体的外观没变，但耳机腿上的触控板，现在支持滑动调节音量，耳机壳上还加了扬声器和 U1 芯片，方便用户找不到耳机壳时，精准定位，并发出声音。</p><p>甚至，苹果还在 AirPods Pro 二代上放上了相当“复古”的挂绳孔，生怕你耳机还在，充电壳自己跑了。</p><p>苹果在 AirPods 这条产品线上的领先幅度确实太大，大多数厂商，也只能抄个外观，没法抄明白内在。</p><p>长期主义构建起的产品壁垒，让苹果越来越难被超越</p><p>如果你是个数码爱好者，你应该非常清楚，每年苹果秋季的硬件新品发布会，应该搭配着 6 月份 WWDC 一起看。</p><p>苹果的软件，与苹果的硬件，融合度极高，关联性极强。</p><p>昨晚的发布会后，大部分网络评论都在赞美苹果在 iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 上命名为“灵动岛”的交互风格。</p><p>但苹果的竞争对手们，看完发布会，应该最清楚，“灵动岛”的交互风格是最好抄的，最难抄也是最难超的，是苹果的长期主义。</p><p>每年 Apple Watch 的更新，背后是苹果多年在健康领域的投入与数据积累。</p><p>每年 iPhone 的更新，背后是苹果多年在芯片领域，机身工艺领域，显示面板领域的投入。</p><p>两代 AirPods Pro 的更新，背后是苹果多年把耳机当作整个声场系统，在计算音频领域的投入。</p><p>尽管在网络上，似乎总有人说苹果不行了，被这个那个厂商超越了，但事实情况是，每年的智能手机市场，苹果依然拿走了大部分利润，在整个软硬件生态上，这家公司依然是世界上最好的科技公司，甚至没有之一。</p><p>程序员圈子里流行一句话：talk is cheap，show me the code。</p><p>在消费数码领域，同理。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>想超越苹果，越来越难了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n想超越苹果，越来越难了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-08 08:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1 小时 40 分钟的线上发布会，昨晚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。</p><p>健康功能更贴心的 Apple Watch S8，全新且硬核的 Apple Watch Ultra。</p><p>更换芯片后大幅提升降噪能力，比之前更不容易丢的 AirPods Pro（第二代）。</p><p>还有就是每年秋季铁打不动的固定节目，全新一代 iPhone：iPhone 14 系列。</p><p>这一次，iPhone 的正面变了。</p><p>Apple Watch：健康玩儿明白后，该对新市场下手了</p><p>即便你是个重度 Apple Watch 用户，如果只看外观，确实也很难分辨出 Apple Watch S8 和之前产品的区别。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但毫不夸张，Apple Watch S8，应该算是近几年 Apple Watch 这条产品线中，硬件更新幅度最“要命”的一次。</p><p>苹果在 Apple Watch S8 上，新增了温度传感器。最大的作用，是通过跟测睡眠时候的体温，呈现长期的体温变化情况，每 5 秒读取一次体温，来提升女性经期跟踪功能的准确性，更精准预测排卵日。watchOS 系统还会通过对于用户体征的测量，来预警经期的紊乱或推迟。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>这个功能，对于想备孕和想避孕的女性，同样有用。</p><p>而在过去，对于大部分女性，经期跟踪，往往只能通过一些 app 来进行手动标注，几乎没有任何<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>硬件会关注到女性经期这一领域。</p><p>毕竟对于很多厂商，如果在智能穿戴设备上放一个温度传感器，大概率匹配的功能，会走向发烧监测这一服务新冠预防的环节。</p><p>除了新增的温度传感器，Apple Watch S8 还升级了陀螺仪和加速度感应器，配合麦克风，气压计，GPS 和苹果号称超过 100 万小时真实驾驶和车祸数据调校出来的算法，Apple Watch 可以在用户发生车祸的第一时间进行紧急呼叫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>全新的高 G 值加速器，可以感知的最大 G 值，是 256G。</p><p>这是个什么概念？</p><p>F1 是世界上最快的场地赛车，发生事故时车手往往会承受远超日常车祸的撞击力度。最近两年最严重的 F1 车祸，2020 年巴林站大奖赛，格罗斯让所承受的撞击，是 67 个 G。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而在日常生活中，普通人能承受的最大 G 值，大概只有 3.5G。</p><p>车祸报警的安全功能确实对大部分人来说，可能知道换了表，都不会用一次，但在危机时刻有可能救命的功能，有总比没有好。</p><p>如果说 Apple Watch S8 和全新的入门款 SE 是一次常规迭代，Apple Watch Ultra 则是苹果对一个新领域发起进军的第一声号角。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra 屏幕更大，更亮，机身也更坚固，扬声器和麦克风都更多，电池续航也更长，甚至还新增了一个可供用户自定义的实体按键以及全新设计的应对不同运动场景的表带，都在导向一个结果：苹果开始对专业运动手表领域下手了。</p><p>钛合金表身，49mm 表盘，2000nit屏幕亮度，双 GPS，零下 20 到零上 55 摄氏度的工作温度区间，WR100 的 100 米防水认证，毫无疑问，这是最强的 Apple Watch。适合需求最高的精英运动员。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然，这也并不意味着你不是精英运动员，Apple Watch Ultra 就不适合你。</p><p>如果你对瑞士传统手表足够熟悉，就应该了解，劳力士戴通拿是赛车表，水鬼是潜水表，IWC 万国擅长做飞行计时，某种意义上，手表是一种身份标签。</p><p>而 Apple Watch Ultra，代表智能手表，终于也可以出现在最严苛的自然环境中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有一说一，Apple Watch 从诞生到昨晚发布第 8 代，一路走来并不是一帆风顺，在第一代时，Apple Watch 走了想成为奢侈品的弯路，但错误的指向很快被矫正，苹果开始在健康监控和运动监控两个领域重点发力，并且逐渐在往两个方向的最终目标不断发展。</p><p>一个是能让所有普通人只要戴上 Apple Watch，无需过多设置，就能随时监控自己尽可能多身体指标，对健康问题提前做出预警。</p><p>一个是让世界上最顶级的运动员，也能觉得，Apple Watch 这样一款所有人都能买到的消费级智能穿戴设备，完全能满足自己远超常人想象的训练需求。</p><p>从现在来看，这两条路，苹果都走得相当稳健。</p><p>iPhone 14 系列：用最巧妙的方式，解决最棘手的问题。</p><p>也许是 mini 机型在前两代的销售情况并没有达到市场预期。在 iPhone 14 这一代机型上，苹果砍掉了 mini，把之前 Plus 的型号拿了回来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在外观上，iPhone 14 对比 iPhone 13，确实没有太多改变，而 iPhone 14 Plus，则看上去像是放大版的 iPhone 14。甚至是处理器，iPhone 14 和 14 Plus，也用了和上代一样的 A15 仿生芯片。</p><p>但如果仔细对比，就会发现，对比 iPhone 13 上使用的 A15 芯片，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的 A15 芯片多了一颗图形处理器。影像硬件也进行了更新，后置的主摄光圈和传感器都更大，全新的前置摄像头低光环境表现更好，也支持自动对焦。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>最直接的改变，就是需要更多图形处理性能的游戏会表现更好，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的拍照和视频能力也能得到直接提升。</p><p>感知最明显的，应该是全新的视频运动模式，通过处理器运算，大幅降低运动时拍摄的抖动。甚至某种意义上，对于 iPhone 14 系列用户，手机稳定器这个品类，大概率是再也不需要了。</p><p>即便实话实说，iPhone 14/14 Plus 看上去更新幅度不大，但很明显，iPhone 14 Plus 会成为今年年底到明年手机市场的最大爆款，绝对足以让国内各家手机厂商嘴上不服，但心里很慌。</p><p>今年的 iPhone，最大的变化在 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 两款机型身上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>正面，刘海屏没了。</p><p>虽然因为 FaceID 所需要的结构光传感器和前置摄像头无法隐藏，但苹果还是想出了一个绝妙的主意来把这块儿“视觉障碍”给藏起来。于是就有了“灵动岛”设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>简单来说，“灵动岛”是一套全新的通知设计风格，通过系统 UI 的灵活改变，尽可能隐藏住屏幕上不可回避的“黑斑”，实际看上去，也比大部分绞尽脑汁想要做屏下摄像头或者是尽可能缩小屏幕打孔的手机高明很多。</p><p>因为动的是系统软件设计，并没有影响整体功能。</p><p>而且，苹果还对 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 的屏幕素质做了进一步升级，最高亮度直接翻倍，提升到 2000 nit，即便室外阳光耀眼也能看清屏幕，早年间在 Apple Watch 上已经应用成熟的可变刷新率 LTPO 屏幕，来到 iPhone 上，就给了 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 目前市面上最好的“全天候显示”体验。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>叫“全天候显示”，是因为实现原理是通过降低屏幕刷新率和亮度来省电，不影响显示内容，而非大部分 Android 机型的“熄屏显示”逻辑，通过只调用少数像素点显示零碎内容来省电。</p><p>在每年 Pro 系列都会突出的拍摄配置上，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 也做了近些年的最大升级。主摄从 1200 万像素直接升级到 4800 万像素，对于大多数照片，四合一像素传感器会将每 4 个像素合并为一个大像素（单位像素尺寸相当于 2.44 微米），从而可在低光条件下拍摄到优质的影像，将照片大小保持在 1200 万像素。而当用户选择 ProRAW 格式，4800 万像素会尽数输出，呈现出最多的画面细节。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在 iPhone 13 系列上看上去更像试水功能的电影效果模式视频，也在 14 Pro/Pro Max 上更新了规格，支持 4K 30 fps 和 4K 24 fps 视频拍摄。更贴近真实的电影参数。</p><p>在  14 Pro/Pro Max 机身中搭载的芯片，也是最新的 4nm 制程 A16 芯片，按照苹果的说法，6 核中央处理器带来的速度提升至高可达 40%，并可举重若轻地处理高负载任务。A16 仿生芯片采用经加速的 5 核图像处理器，内存带宽提升多达 50%。</p><p>总而言之，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max，从里到外，都是全新的。</p><p>AirPods Pro 2：没有竞争对手，苹果就决定超越自己</p><p>相比于手机，手表和平板，苹果 AirPods 产品线的更新频率最低，原因也很好理解：确实没有竞争对手。</p><p>但昨晚，苹果还是发布了 AirPods Pro 的第二代，外观没太多改变，还是白色的机身，还是像豌豆射手的耳机本体，但性能做了大幅提升。</p><p>全新的 H2 芯片，让第二代的 AirPods Pro 降噪能力是上一代的两倍，更好的计算能力也让 AirPods Pro 第二代的音质有了明显提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然耳机本体的外观没变，但耳机腿上的触控板，现在支持滑动调节音量，耳机壳上还加了扬声器和 U1 芯片，方便用户找不到耳机壳时，精准定位，并发出声音。</p><p>甚至，苹果还在 AirPods Pro 二代上放上了相当“复古”的挂绳孔，生怕你耳机还在，充电壳自己跑了。</p><p>苹果在 AirPods 这条产品线上的领先幅度确实太大，大多数厂商，也只能抄个外观，没法抄明白内在。</p><p>长期主义构建起的产品壁垒，让苹果越来越难被超越</p><p>如果你是个数码爱好者，你应该非常清楚，每年苹果秋季的硬件新品发布会，应该搭配着 6 月份 WWDC 一起看。</p><p>苹果的软件，与苹果的硬件，融合度极高，关联性极强。</p><p>昨晚的发布会后，大部分网络评论都在赞美苹果在 iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 上命名为“灵动岛”的交互风格。</p><p>但苹果的竞争对手们，看完发布会，应该最清楚，“灵动岛”的交互风格是最好抄的，最难抄也是最难超的，是苹果的长期主义。</p><p>每年 Apple Watch 的更新，背后是苹果多年在健康领域的投入与数据积累。</p><p>每年 iPhone 的更新，背后是苹果多年在芯片领域，机身工艺领域，显示面板领域的投入。</p><p>两代 AirPods Pro 的更新，背后是苹果多年把耳机当作整个声场系统，在计算音频领域的投入。</p><p>尽管在网络上，似乎总有人说苹果不行了，被这个那个厂商超越了，但事实情况是，每年的智能手机市场，苹果依然拿走了大部分利润，在整个软硬件生态上，这家公司依然是世界上最好的科技公司，甚至没有之一。</p><p>程序员圈子里流行一句话：talk is cheap，show me the code。</p><p>在消费数码领域，同理。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9d895eb03544e594a68e0de37afd8d","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265788073","content_text":"1 小时 40 分钟的线上发布会，昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。健康功能更贴心的 Apple Watch S8，全新且硬核的 Apple Watch Ultra。更换芯片后大幅提升降噪能力，比之前更不容易丢的 AirPods Pro（第二代）。还有就是每年秋季铁打不动的固定节目，全新一代 iPhone：iPhone 14 系列。这一次，iPhone 的正面变了。Apple Watch：健康玩儿明白后，该对新市场下手了即便你是个重度 Apple Watch 用户，如果只看外观，确实也很难分辨出 Apple Watch S8 和之前产品的区别。但毫不夸张，Apple Watch S8，应该算是近几年 Apple Watch 这条产品线中，硬件更新幅度最“要命”的一次。苹果在 Apple Watch S8 上，新增了温度传感器。最大的作用，是通过跟测睡眠时候的体温，呈现长期的体温变化情况，每 5 秒读取一次体温，来提升女性经期跟踪功能的准确性，更精准预测排卵日。watchOS 系统还会通过对于用户体征的测量，来预警经期的紊乱或推迟。这个功能，对于想备孕和想避孕的女性，同样有用。而在过去，对于大部分女性，经期跟踪，往往只能通过一些 app 来进行手动标注，几乎没有任何智能硬件会关注到女性经期这一领域。毕竟对于很多厂商，如果在智能穿戴设备上放一个温度传感器，大概率匹配的功能，会走向发烧监测这一服务新冠预防的环节。除了新增的温度传感器，Apple Watch S8 还升级了陀螺仪和加速度感应器，配合麦克风，气压计，GPS 和苹果号称超过 100 万小时真实驾驶和车祸数据调校出来的算法，Apple Watch 可以在用户发生车祸的第一时间进行紧急呼叫。全新的高 G 值加速器，可以感知的最大 G 值，是 256G。这是个什么概念？F1 是世界上最快的场地赛车，发生事故时车手往往会承受远超日常车祸的撞击力度。最近两年最严重的 F1 车祸，2020 年巴林站大奖赛，格罗斯让所承受的撞击，是 67 个 G。而在日常生活中，普通人能承受的最大 G 值，大概只有 3.5G。车祸报警的安全功能确实对大部分人来说，可能知道换了表，都不会用一次，但在危机时刻有可能救命的功能，有总比没有好。如果说 Apple Watch S8 和全新的入门款 SE 是一次常规迭代，Apple Watch Ultra 则是苹果对一个新领域发起进军的第一声号角。Apple Watch Ultra 屏幕更大，更亮，机身也更坚固，扬声器和麦克风都更多，电池续航也更长，甚至还新增了一个可供用户自定义的实体按键以及全新设计的应对不同运动场景的表带，都在导向一个结果：苹果开始对专业运动手表领域下手了。钛合金表身，49mm 表盘，2000nit屏幕亮度，双 GPS，零下 20 到零上 55 摄氏度的工作温度区间，WR100 的 100 米防水认证，毫无疑问，这是最强的 Apple Watch。适合需求最高的精英运动员。当然，这也并不意味着你不是精英运动员，Apple Watch Ultra 就不适合你。如果你对瑞士传统手表足够熟悉，就应该了解，劳力士戴通拿是赛车表，水鬼是潜水表，IWC 万国擅长做飞行计时，某种意义上，手表是一种身份标签。而 Apple Watch Ultra，代表智能手表，终于也可以出现在最严苛的自然环境中。有一说一，Apple Watch 从诞生到昨晚发布第 8 代，一路走来并不是一帆风顺，在第一代时，Apple Watch 走了想成为奢侈品的弯路，但错误的指向很快被矫正，苹果开始在健康监控和运动监控两个领域重点发力，并且逐渐在往两个方向的最终目标不断发展。一个是能让所有普通人只要戴上 Apple Watch，无需过多设置，就能随时监控自己尽可能多身体指标，对健康问题提前做出预警。一个是让世界上最顶级的运动员，也能觉得，Apple Watch 这样一款所有人都能买到的消费级智能穿戴设备，完全能满足自己远超常人想象的训练需求。从现在来看，这两条路，苹果都走得相当稳健。iPhone 14 系列：用最巧妙的方式，解决最棘手的问题。也许是 mini 机型在前两代的销售情况并没有达到市场预期。在 iPhone 14 这一代机型上，苹果砍掉了 mini，把之前 Plus 的型号拿了回来。在外观上，iPhone 14 对比 iPhone 13，确实没有太多改变，而 iPhone 14 Plus，则看上去像是放大版的 iPhone 14。甚至是处理器，iPhone 14 和 14 Plus，也用了和上代一样的 A15 仿生芯片。但如果仔细对比，就会发现，对比 iPhone 13 上使用的 A15 芯片，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的 A15 芯片多了一颗图形处理器。影像硬件也进行了更新，后置的主摄光圈和传感器都更大，全新的前置摄像头低光环境表现更好，也支持自动对焦。最直接的改变，就是需要更多图形处理性能的游戏会表现更好，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的拍照和视频能力也能得到直接提升。感知最明显的，应该是全新的视频运动模式，通过处理器运算，大幅降低运动时拍摄的抖动。甚至某种意义上，对于 iPhone 14 系列用户，手机稳定器这个品类，大概率是再也不需要了。即便实话实说，iPhone 14/14 Plus 看上去更新幅度不大，但很明显，iPhone 14 Plus 会成为今年年底到明年手机市场的最大爆款，绝对足以让国内各家手机厂商嘴上不服，但心里很慌。今年的 iPhone，最大的变化在 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 两款机型身上。正面，刘海屏没了。虽然因为 FaceID 所需要的结构光传感器和前置摄像头无法隐藏，但苹果还是想出了一个绝妙的主意来把这块儿“视觉障碍”给藏起来。于是就有了“灵动岛”设计。简单来说，“灵动岛”是一套全新的通知设计风格，通过系统 UI 的灵活改变，尽可能隐藏住屏幕上不可回避的“黑斑”，实际看上去，也比大部分绞尽脑汁想要做屏下摄像头或者是尽可能缩小屏幕打孔的手机高明很多。因为动的是系统软件设计，并没有影响整体功能。而且，苹果还对 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 的屏幕素质做了进一步升级，最高亮度直接翻倍，提升到 2000 nit，即便室外阳光耀眼也能看清屏幕，早年间在 Apple Watch 上已经应用成熟的可变刷新率 LTPO 屏幕，来到 iPhone 上，就给了 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 目前市面上最好的“全天候显示”体验。叫“全天候显示”，是因为实现原理是通过降低屏幕刷新率和亮度来省电，不影响显示内容，而非大部分 Android 机型的“熄屏显示”逻辑，通过只调用少数像素点显示零碎内容来省电。在每年 Pro 系列都会突出的拍摄配置上，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 也做了近些年的最大升级。主摄从 1200 万像素直接升级到 4800 万像素，对于大多数照片，四合一像素传感器会将每 4 个像素合并为一个大像素（单位像素尺寸相当于 2.44 微米），从而可在低光条件下拍摄到优质的影像，将照片大小保持在 1200 万像素。而当用户选择 ProRAW 格式，4800 万像素会尽数输出，呈现出最多的画面细节。在 iPhone 13 系列上看上去更像试水功能的电影效果模式视频，也在 14 Pro/Pro Max 上更新了规格，支持 4K 30 fps 和 4K 24 fps 视频拍摄。更贴近真实的电影参数。在  14 Pro/Pro Max 机身中搭载的芯片，也是最新的 4nm 制程 A16 芯片，按照苹果的说法，6 核中央处理器带来的速度提升至高可达 40%，并可举重若轻地处理高负载任务。A16 仿生芯片采用经加速的 5 核图像处理器，内存带宽提升多达 50%。总而言之，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max，从里到外，都是全新的。AirPods Pro 2：没有竞争对手，苹果就决定超越自己相比于手机，手表和平板，苹果 AirPods 产品线的更新频率最低，原因也很好理解：确实没有竞争对手。但昨晚，苹果还是发布了 AirPods Pro 的第二代，外观没太多改变，还是白色的机身，还是像豌豆射手的耳机本体，但性能做了大幅提升。全新的 H2 芯片，让第二代的 AirPods Pro 降噪能力是上一代的两倍，更好的计算能力也让 AirPods Pro 第二代的音质有了明显提升。虽然耳机本体的外观没变，但耳机腿上的触控板，现在支持滑动调节音量，耳机壳上还加了扬声器和 U1 芯片，方便用户找不到耳机壳时，精准定位，并发出声音。甚至，苹果还在 AirPods Pro 二代上放上了相当“复古”的挂绳孔，生怕你耳机还在，充电壳自己跑了。苹果在 AirPods 这条产品线上的领先幅度确实太大，大多数厂商，也只能抄个外观，没法抄明白内在。长期主义构建起的产品壁垒，让苹果越来越难被超越如果你是个数码爱好者，你应该非常清楚，每年苹果秋季的硬件新品发布会，应该搭配着 6 月份 WWDC 一起看。苹果的软件，与苹果的硬件，融合度极高，关联性极强。昨晚的发布会后，大部分网络评论都在赞美苹果在 iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 上命名为“灵动岛”的交互风格。但苹果的竞争对手们，看完发布会，应该最清楚，“灵动岛”的交互风格是最好抄的，最难抄也是最难超的，是苹果的长期主义。每年 Apple Watch 的更新，背后是苹果多年在健康领域的投入与数据积累。每年 iPhone 的更新，背后是苹果多年在芯片领域，机身工艺领域，显示面板领域的投入。两代 AirPods Pro 的更新，背后是苹果多年把耳机当作整个声场系统，在计算音频领域的投入。尽管在网络上，似乎总有人说苹果不行了，被这个那个厂商超越了，但事实情况是，每年的智能手机市场，苹果依然拿走了大部分利润，在整个软硬件生态上，这家公司依然是世界上最好的科技公司，甚至没有之一。程序员圈子里流行一句话：talk is cheap，show me the code。在消费数码领域，同理。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992387352,"gmtCreate":1661264218878,"gmtModify":1676536485108,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992387352","repostId":"2261050143","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261050143","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661259213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261050143?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 20:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"烧了100亿的Meta元宇宙，水平就这？小扎：借钱也要继续搞","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261050143","media":"硅星人","summary":"扎克伯格最近很“头大”。他或许也没想到，自己发的一张元宇宙自拍照，可能造就了Meta有史以来最差的一次公关事件。不久前，Meta旗下的元宇宙平台Horizon Worlds正式宣布在西班牙和法国上线。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>扎克伯格最近很“头大”。他或许也没想到，自己发的一张元宇宙自拍照，可能造就了Meta有史以来最差的一次公关事件。</p><p>不久前，Meta旗下的元宇宙平台Horizon Worlds正式宣布在西班牙和法国上线。为了庆贺欧洲第三站的开启，CEO扎克伯格也高兴地在Facebook上发布了一张自己在Horizon World里站在虚拟版埃菲尔铁塔和圣家族大教堂前的自拍。</p><p>乍听之下，这个宣传创意似乎还不错？但看完的这张照片，网友们都集体沉默了，大家的脑子里全都盘旋着一句话，“小扎，你没事吧？你没事吧？你没事吧？”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22e803e7bb3f3229094228965703089\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片截自于扎克伯格的Facebook主页</p><p>照片中，数字版扎克伯格那开到头顶的发际线、夸张的黑眼线、呆滞的眼神和僵硬的肢体，配上背后伫立在一片绿幕背景上的朴实铁塔和泥巴版大教堂，透着种说不出的诡异。要不是被扎克伯格本人发出的，这张粗糙到令人震惊的图片被认为是一张Meta黑粉所做的恶搞图也毫不违和。</p><p>该图片一出，大家便纷纷在评论区开启吐槽模式，Meta烧了100亿美元所造出来的元宇宙世界，水平就这？</p><p><b>一张自拍引发的“血案”，Meta元宇宙遭网友花式吐槽</b></p><p>Horizon World可以说这一路都是走在群嘲之中：从一开始上线时那些幽灵般的无腿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/835670\">数字人</a>，到各种小学生画风的小游戏，再到各种歧视、骚扰事件的频繁发生，层出不穷。此次，扎克伯格的自拍贴更是把各种吐槽都推到了顶峰。</p><p>有人觉得Meta元宇宙的画风大约就跟《天线宝宝》差不多，做虚拟形象的水平跟2007年版的《第二人生》比都差了一大截。</p><p>有人说图片中扎克伯格的诡异表情简直就是经典恐怖形象“鬼娃恰奇”的翻版，感觉下一秒他就要开始来收拾你了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038bbdc46af520e441d6aa93ee6927ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片来自Twitter</p><p>也有人喊话Meta，不要再花几十万年薪聘请设计师了，要不看看我吧，随手搭的大教堂不比你那泥巴教堂看起来好？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d8bbc2a68edd7d24bff8b277456339\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片来自Twitter</p><p>还有网友甚至尝试用Stablediffusion和Dallemini等AI照片生成工具，通过输入“扎克伯格站在埃菲尔铁塔前”的一段文字来直接生成图片。无论是扎克伯格本人还是铁塔、背景都可以说都秒杀了Meta。所以你说说，100亿美金花个什么劲儿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419c791a059b6f09d4b21c4f2808b94b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片来自Twitter</p><p>当然，扎克伯格也看到了这些吐槽。他赶紧重新发文，称之前是自己“手滑”，真正Horizon World的效果应该是这样的：图片中他的虚拟形象更加3D立体并透露着一股“慈祥”的感觉，景观广场也更加华丽写实。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d95b267a0f45f224d19a20f48712bf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片截自于扎克伯格的Facebook主页</p><p>同时他还表示Horizon World的数字头像将发布重大更新，他会在即将到来的 Connect 大会上分享更多细节。</p><p>但对于小扎的“找补”大家也不免感觉有些莫名其妙，既然之前就有更好的版本为啥还要高调发布自己的“丑照”，难道Meta现在也想走黑红路线了？</p><p>但再多的质疑也并不能动摇Meta要打造虚拟帝国的决心，目前看来，Meta觉得烧了100亿还远远不够，这钱未来还要烧得更猛。为了进一步支持元宇宙的发展，缓解公司的现金流压力，Meta甚至破天荒地首次发行了公司债券，募集了超过100亿美元，不惜举债都要继续为自己的元宇宙之梦“发电”。</p><p><b>现金流加速收紧，Meta有史以来第一次发行公司债</b></p><p>本月10日，Meta表示已在首次债券发行中筹集了100亿美元，值得注意的是，这是Meta自2004年正式成立以来第一次发行公司债券。</p><p>要知道，在当前标准普尔500指数的成分股当中，500家上市企业仅有18家除租赁业务外没有发行公司债，而Meta就是其中之一。长期以来，Meta的财务状况都可以用三个字形容——不差钱。</p><p>在一众科技巨头中，从2009年开始就实现正现金流、每年都净入账超百亿的Meta几乎从未有过缺钱的感觉。自由现金流量是企业最重要的经营指标之一，它是驱动企业投资、收购、分红、股票回购和债务等各项经营的关键因素，而Meta超强的赚钱能力一直是它应对危机的坚实后盾，也是其备受投资者青睐的重要推动力。</p><p>但自从Meta开始All in元宇宙，形势似乎开始发生了很大的转变，进入2022年以来，Meta账面上的钱开始一路走低。2021年年底，Meta的自由现金流还有95.5亿美元，现金及现金等价物和有价证券共有580.8亿美元。但到了2022年二季度，其自由现金流已经降至44.5亿美元，Meta的总现金价值则掉到了405亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9ebfa3815585f4e7fac9f3806274\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片截自于The Motley Fool网站</p><p>从“收”、“支”两条线来看，Meta的情况都不容乐观。刚过去的二季度首次营收出现下滑，并已经连续三季度利润下降，在支出方面，元宇宙业务在以每季度几十亿美元的速度在烧着，带来的收入却少得可怜。</p><p>在主营业务竞争加剧、新业务毫无起色和不容乐观的宏观经济环境之下，Meta不得不开始未雨绸缪，为自己多攒点钱。</p><p>此次，Meta本次债券发行的100亿美元分四批次进行，期限为5年到40年不等。其中，5年期票面利率3.5%，比美国国债的利率高出75个基点；10年期票面利率为3.85%；30年期票面利率4.45%；40年期票面利率为4.65%，收益率比美国国债高165个基点。</p><p>根据Meta向美国SEC提交的报告显示，此次发行的债券将主要用于“资本支出、回购其普通股流通股、收购或投资等”用途。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>和巴克莱负责了Meta此次的债券发行。</p><p>消息发布后，市场对Meta的首次发债反应热烈，标准普尔全球评级将其评为AA-投资级，其认购订单金额一度超过了300亿美元。从投资者偏好来说，可能是由于对元宇宙业务短期盈利能力的担忧，大家都更青睐Meta的更长期债券品种。</p><p>值得注意的是，这也是Meta的华人女性CFO上任后在财务层面执行的一项重大战略改革。</p><p><b>｜融资成本走高，科技巨头们纷纷趁机发债</b></p><p>实际上，除了Meta之外，随着美联储持续加息，企业的债券融资的成本和风险走高，许多科技巨头也都在加快融资步伐。近几个月来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>都相继公布了发行公司债券计划。</p><p>今年4月，刚斥资85亿收购完米高梅的亚马逊就发行了高达129亿美元的公司债，共由7个部分组成，其中10年期和30年期的占比最大，票面利率分别为3.6%和3.95%。</p><p>苹果在8月初发行了总额55亿美元、共四个批次的高级无抵押债券，期限分为7年期、10年期、30年期和40年期。其中份额最大的为30年期债券，共计17.5亿美元，票面利率为3.95%。其他期限利率从3.25%到4.1%不等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b85d2d30020b85b074bcc708547a2c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图片来自于Bloomberg</p><p>紧随苹果之后，英特尔日前也宣布发行了共计60亿美元的企业债券，其中包括47.5亿美元的一般企业债和首次发行的12.5亿美元的绿色债券。</p><p>各个企业的发债目的也各不相同。苹果虽然几乎每年都持续融资数百亿美元，但对于坐拥千亿现金流的苹果来说，融资的目的一般都不是出于业务运营需求，而是出于进一步扩充现金的考虑。比如此次债券的发行目的就主要是用于股票回购和股息支付。</p><p>对于近期饱受业绩压力的英特尔来说，此次一般企业债的用途主要是帮助偿还未偿债务和再融资、营运资本融资和资本支出。绿色债券则将用于绿色建筑、能源效率、循环经济和废弃物管理、温室气体减排、水资源管理和可再生电力六大领域的相关项目，助力英特尔实现可持续发展目标。</p><p>而Meta此次的所融得的资金则被认为将大部分用于元宇宙业务的研发以及人员招聘等资本类支出。此外，值得注意的是，对比最近这些企业发债的票面利率也可以看到，同样期限的产品，Meta的此次利率一般都要比其他几家高出几十个基点。</p><p>总得来说，从Meta的种种动向中我们不难看出，其面临的各种压力都越来越大。一边需要解决增长乏力的主业和越来越紧张的现金流问题，另一边也要加快步伐满足用户们对于巨额投入的元宇宙所产生的高期待。</p><p>虽然此次通过发债的给Meta注入了全新的血液，但问题是，如果元宇宙业务始终只进不出，向外举债究竟又能让Meta喘息多久呢？</p></body></html>","source":"gxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n烧了100亿的Meta元宇宙，水平就这？小扎：借钱也要继续搞\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 20:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-08-23/doc-imizirav9289597.shtml><strong>硅星人</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>扎克伯格最近很“头大”。他或许也没想到，自己发的一张元宇宙自拍照，可能造就了Meta有史以来最差的一次公关事件。不久前，Meta旗下的元宇宙平台Horizon Worlds正式宣布在西班牙和法国上线。为了庆贺欧洲第三站的开启，CEO扎克伯格也高兴地在Facebook上发布了一张自己在Horizon World里站在虚拟版埃菲尔铁塔和圣家族大教堂前的自拍。乍听之下，这个宣传创意似乎还不错？但看完的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-08-23/doc-imizirav9289597.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038bbdc46af520e441d6aa93ee6927ce","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-08-23/doc-imizirav9289597.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261050143","content_text":"扎克伯格最近很“头大”。他或许也没想到，自己发的一张元宇宙自拍照，可能造就了Meta有史以来最差的一次公关事件。不久前，Meta旗下的元宇宙平台Horizon Worlds正式宣布在西班牙和法国上线。为了庆贺欧洲第三站的开启，CEO扎克伯格也高兴地在Facebook上发布了一张自己在Horizon World里站在虚拟版埃菲尔铁塔和圣家族大教堂前的自拍。乍听之下，这个宣传创意似乎还不错？但看完的这张照片，网友们都集体沉默了，大家的脑子里全都盘旋着一句话，“小扎，你没事吧？你没事吧？你没事吧？”图片截自于扎克伯格的Facebook主页照片中，数字版扎克伯格那开到头顶的发际线、夸张的黑眼线、呆滞的眼神和僵硬的肢体，配上背后伫立在一片绿幕背景上的朴实铁塔和泥巴版大教堂，透着种说不出的诡异。要不是被扎克伯格本人发出的，这张粗糙到令人震惊的图片被认为是一张Meta黑粉所做的恶搞图也毫不违和。该图片一出，大家便纷纷在评论区开启吐槽模式，Meta烧了100亿美元所造出来的元宇宙世界，水平就这？一张自拍引发的“血案”，Meta元宇宙遭网友花式吐槽Horizon World可以说这一路都是走在群嘲之中：从一开始上线时那些幽灵般的无腿数字人，到各种小学生画风的小游戏，再到各种歧视、骚扰事件的频繁发生，层出不穷。此次，扎克伯格的自拍贴更是把各种吐槽都推到了顶峰。有人觉得Meta元宇宙的画风大约就跟《天线宝宝》差不多，做虚拟形象的水平跟2007年版的《第二人生》比都差了一大截。有人说图片中扎克伯格的诡异表情简直就是经典恐怖形象“鬼娃恰奇”的翻版，感觉下一秒他就要开始来收拾你了。图片来自Twitter也有人喊话Meta，不要再花几十万年薪聘请设计师了，要不看看我吧，随手搭的大教堂不比你那泥巴教堂看起来好？图片来自Twitter还有网友甚至尝试用Stablediffusion和Dallemini等AI照片生成工具，通过输入“扎克伯格站在埃菲尔铁塔前”的一段文字来直接生成图片。无论是扎克伯格本人还是铁塔、背景都可以说都秒杀了Meta。所以你说说，100亿美金花个什么劲儿。图片来自Twitter当然，扎克伯格也看到了这些吐槽。他赶紧重新发文，称之前是自己“手滑”，真正Horizon World的效果应该是这样的：图片中他的虚拟形象更加3D立体并透露着一股“慈祥”的感觉，景观广场也更加华丽写实。图片截自于扎克伯格的Facebook主页同时他还表示Horizon World的数字头像将发布重大更新，他会在即将到来的 Connect 大会上分享更多细节。但对于小扎的“找补”大家也不免感觉有些莫名其妙，既然之前就有更好的版本为啥还要高调发布自己的“丑照”，难道Meta现在也想走黑红路线了？但再多的质疑也并不能动摇Meta要打造虚拟帝国的决心，目前看来，Meta觉得烧了100亿还远远不够，这钱未来还要烧得更猛。为了进一步支持元宇宙的发展，缓解公司的现金流压力，Meta甚至破天荒地首次发行了公司债券，募集了超过100亿美元，不惜举债都要继续为自己的元宇宙之梦“发电”。现金流加速收紧，Meta有史以来第一次发行公司债本月10日，Meta表示已在首次债券发行中筹集了100亿美元，值得注意的是，这是Meta自2004年正式成立以来第一次发行公司债券。要知道，在当前标准普尔500指数的成分股当中，500家上市企业仅有18家除租赁业务外没有发行公司债，而Meta就是其中之一。长期以来，Meta的财务状况都可以用三个字形容——不差钱。在一众科技巨头中，从2009年开始就实现正现金流、每年都净入账超百亿的Meta几乎从未有过缺钱的感觉。自由现金流量是企业最重要的经营指标之一，它是驱动企业投资、收购、分红、股票回购和债务等各项经营的关键因素，而Meta超强的赚钱能力一直是它应对危机的坚实后盾，也是其备受投资者青睐的重要推动力。但自从Meta开始All in元宇宙，形势似乎开始发生了很大的转变，进入2022年以来，Meta账面上的钱开始一路走低。2021年年底，Meta的自由现金流还有95.5亿美元，现金及现金等价物和有价证券共有580.8亿美元。但到了2022年二季度，其自由现金流已经降至44.5亿美元，Meta的总现金价值则掉到了405亿美元。图片截自于The Motley Fool网站从“收”、“支”两条线来看，Meta的情况都不容乐观。刚过去的二季度首次营收出现下滑，并已经连续三季度利润下降，在支出方面，元宇宙业务在以每季度几十亿美元的速度在烧着，带来的收入却少得可怜。在主营业务竞争加剧、新业务毫无起色和不容乐观的宏观经济环境之下，Meta不得不开始未雨绸缪，为自己多攒点钱。此次，Meta本次债券发行的100亿美元分四批次进行，期限为5年到40年不等。其中，5年期票面利率3.5%，比美国国债的利率高出75个基点；10年期票面利率为3.85%；30年期票面利率4.45%；40年期票面利率为4.65%，收益率比美国国债高165个基点。根据Meta向美国SEC提交的报告显示，此次发行的债券将主要用于“资本支出、回购其普通股流通股、收购或投资等”用途。摩根士丹利、摩根大通、美国银行和巴克莱负责了Meta此次的债券发行。消息发布后，市场对Meta的首次发债反应热烈，标准普尔全球评级将其评为AA-投资级，其认购订单金额一度超过了300亿美元。从投资者偏好来说，可能是由于对元宇宙业务短期盈利能力的担忧，大家都更青睐Meta的更长期债券品种。值得注意的是，这也是Meta的华人女性CFO上任后在财务层面执行的一项重大战略改革。｜融资成本走高，科技巨头们纷纷趁机发债实际上，除了Meta之外，随着美联储持续加息，企业的债券融资的成本和风险走高，许多科技巨头也都在加快融资步伐。近几个月来，亚马逊、苹果、英特尔都相继公布了发行公司债券计划。今年4月，刚斥资85亿收购完米高梅的亚马逊就发行了高达129亿美元的公司债，共由7个部分组成，其中10年期和30年期的占比最大，票面利率分别为3.6%和3.95%。苹果在8月初发行了总额55亿美元、共四个批次的高级无抵押债券，期限分为7年期、10年期、30年期和40年期。其中份额最大的为30年期债券，共计17.5亿美元，票面利率为3.95%。其他期限利率从3.25%到4.1%不等。图片来自于Bloomberg紧随苹果之后，英特尔日前也宣布发行了共计60亿美元的企业债券，其中包括47.5亿美元的一般企业债和首次发行的12.5亿美元的绿色债券。各个企业的发债目的也各不相同。苹果虽然几乎每年都持续融资数百亿美元，但对于坐拥千亿现金流的苹果来说，融资的目的一般都不是出于业务运营需求，而是出于进一步扩充现金的考虑。比如此次债券的发行目的就主要是用于股票回购和股息支付。对于近期饱受业绩压力的英特尔来说，此次一般企业债的用途主要是帮助偿还未偿债务和再融资、营运资本融资和资本支出。绿色债券则将用于绿色建筑、能源效率、循环经济和废弃物管理、温室气体减排、水资源管理和可再生电力六大领域的相关项目，助力英特尔实现可持续发展目标。而Meta此次的所融得的资金则被认为将大部分用于元宇宙业务的研发以及人员招聘等资本类支出。此外，值得注意的是，对比最近这些企业发债的票面利率也可以看到，同样期限的产品，Meta的此次利率一般都要比其他几家高出几十个基点。总得来说，从Meta的种种动向中我们不难看出，其面临的各种压力都越来越大。一边需要解决增长乏力的主业和越来越紧张的现金流问题，另一边也要加快步伐满足用户们对于巨额投入的元宇宙所产生的高期待。虽然此次通过发债的给Meta注入了全新的血液，但问题是，如果元宇宙业务始终只进不出，向外举债究竟又能让Meta喘息多久呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990799233,"gmtCreate":1660408478725,"gmtModify":1676533466098,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990799233","repostId":"1119283353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119283353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660389631,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119283353?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"增长迅猛、市场规模增大，AMD却还陷在“低估值陷阱”中？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119283353","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>摘要：</b>AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。</p><p>Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）是高性能半导体芯片的领先供应商。该公司在过去几年中取得了巨大的增长，在截至 2022 年 6 月的季度，业绩继续大放异彩。尽管如此，在2021 年 11 月至 2022 年 7 月期间，股价已下跌约 51%。</p><p>这主要是受高通胀和利率上升环境的推动。然而，在过去的一个月里，由于市场看到了抓住“以合理价格增长”的机会，股价实际上已经暴涨了约 33%。AMD 在本质上和相对于历史倍数而言仍然被低估。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69df64ee775e093fc1e07fa0ad9503e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts 提供的AMD数据</p><p><b>01、商业模式</b></p><p>AMD 在其四个主要业务领域拥有 1350 亿美元的潜在市场：</p><p>数据中心 - $50B TAM</p><p>个人电脑 - $40B TAM</p><p>嵌入式 - $29B TAM</p><p>游戏 - $16B TAM</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d77f65faaca78272684bd32148412494\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD TAM（2022 年投资者报告）</p><p>由于超大规模云、超级计算、5G、自动驾驶汽车、模拟（元界）甚至物联网（物联网）等技术不断发展，预计这一市场机会将会扩大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e610728a204579d2dda19e6d73355a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>技术趋势（2022 年投资者报告）</p><p>AMD 在其四个主要细分市场中的三个细分市场（包括数据中心、PC 和嵌入式）中都是强大的类别领导者。NVIDIA ( NVDA ) 与 AMD 作为游戏 GPU 的领导者以及强大的数据中心产品相抗衡。两家公司此前计划合并，这将创建一个势不可挡的芯片公司，但因“监管挑战”而停止。</p><p>AMD 的数据中心服务器处理器是同类产品中最好的。它的 AMD EPYC是“世界上性能最高的服务器处理器”。这提供了比高性能计算 (HPC)、云和企业工作负载中的竞争对手更高的性能。它的芯片已经部署在 AWS、Microsoft Azure 和 Google Cloud 等三大云提供商的基础设施中。此外，AMD 的芯片可以在腾讯云和阿里云等中国云领先设施中找到。在最近一个季度，微软 Azure 部署了 AMD Instinct MI200 加速器进行大规模人工智能 ( AI ) 训练，这是对公司领先技术的又一巨大认可。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95429335e67686ebb08eef1dbdf859f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 数据中心产品（2022 年投资者报告）</p><p>AMD 的产品也广泛部署在思科、戴尔、惠普企业 ( HPE )、华硕、联想等企业中。AMD 驱动的 Frontier 超级计算机最近突破了 exaflop 的障碍并获得了行业认可。</p><p>管理层已将成为“新数据中心领导者”作为战略重点，他们的目标是通过利用一流的技术、持续创新和执行一致的路线图来实现这一目标。</p><p>在游戏领域，AMD 的 Zen 2 芯片用于 PlayStation 5 和 Xbox Series X/S。对于客户端 PC，AMD 的 Ryzen 处理器在价值和功耗方面领先于英特尔，并在其他领域提供非常接近的性能。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59c0ee8628964329147b7e82aab715\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 产品（2022 年投资者演示文稿）</p><p>与英特尔相比，AMD 提供更高效消耗的主要原因是其更小的 7nm（纳米）芯片。英特尔在努力执行最新的 7nm 芯片设计后已经落后。与此同时，AMD 已经发布了更小的 5nm 芯片，这将是这种尺寸的“世界首创”，预计将于 2022 年秋季上市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0dd3bfe00b986a1c59b75c60bc4787\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD Zen 5nm（2022 年投资者报告）</p><p><b>02、不断增长的金融</b></p><p>AMD 宣布了 2022 年第二季度的强劲收益。总收入为 66 亿美元，同比增长 70%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3635043ac9e3b2418af4b35e3de86472\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 收入（收益 AMD）</p><p>这一收入增长由强劲的数据中心收入推动，同比快速增长 83% 至 14.86 亿美元，营业利润率高达 32%。这是其 EPYC（霄龙）数据中心处理器销售强劲的结果。由于移动处理器销售强劲，客户收入猛增 25% 至 21.52 亿美元。博彩收入也增长了 32% 至 17 亿美元。这是由半定制产品销售的增长推动的，但图形收入确实略有下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3065a94d01c7ec40371c6753180c19c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>细分市场增长（AMD Q2 22 收益）</p><p>嵌入式计算收入加速至 12.57 亿美元。这增长了令人瞠目结舌的 2,228%，但这一增长主要是由最近完成的收购带来的收入所推动的。AMD以全股票交易方式收购了Xilinx，该交易于 2020 年宣布，但最终于 2022 年初完成。Xilinx 是航空航天和军事应用中常用的 FPGA（现场可编程门阵列）的发明者。</p><p>AMD 的毛利率为 46%，同比下降 2%。营业收入为 5.26 亿美元，占收入的 8%。同比下降 37%，主要是由于与 Xilinx 收购相关的无形资产摊销所致。每股收益也受到同一问题的影响，下降了 0.27 美元，而去年同期为 0.58 美元。好消息是，与收购相关的收入下降似乎更多是资产负债表的调整，而不是“真实美元”的下降。所以，我不认为这是一个向前发展的主要问题。非公认会计原则摊薄后每股收益实际上从一年前的 0.63 美元增至 1.05 美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574a5b99545305b23fa31ade275e93a0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>每股收益（AMD Q2 财务）</p><p>AMD 拥有稳健的资产负债表，拥有 59.9 亿美元的现金和短期投资。除了约 28 亿美元的总债务外，由于 9.06 亿美元的强劲自由现金流（同比增长 43%），这是可以管理的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5bec04d01f6d4e4cc104a3d8b2b5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 资产负债表（第二季度收益）</p><p><b>03、不温不火的指导</b></p><p>对于 2022 年第三季度，AMD 管理层预测收入为 67 亿美元，与之前提到的 70% 相比，增长率略低于 55%。全年收入预计为 263 亿美元（+/- 3 亿美元），同比增长约 60%。这些都是了不起的数字，然而，AMD 的首席执行官 Su 预测 PC 领域的增长将放缓。</p><blockquote>“我们对个人电脑业务采取了更为保守的看法，所以在一个季度之前，我们会认为个人电脑业务会下滑，让我们称之为高个位数，”</blockquote><p><b>高级估值模型</b></p><p>为了对 AMD 进行估值，我将最新的财务数据插入了我的高级估值模型，该模型使用贴现现金流估值法。我保守地预测明年的收入将增长 48%，因为该公司的收入将从更大的基数增长。此外，我预测未来 2 到 5 年收入增长 28%。这一估值是由数据中心领域的预期实力继续推动的，以及强劲的数字化转型顺风。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06222cdf6ea573544d410ebeb52a0313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 股票估值 1（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）</p><p>我预测该公司的营业利润率将在未来 7 年稳步增长至约 18%，这主要得益于利润率较高的云领域的强劲增长。这些利润数字包括公司的研发费用，我已将其资本化以提高准确性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/423623e3d13dd507de69faa824047c1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMD 股票估值 2（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）</p><p>鉴于这些数字，我得到每股 114 美元的公允价值。该股目前的交易价格为每股 98 美元，因此被低估了约 15%。</p><p>作为一个额外的数据点，AMD 的市盈率 (P/E) ( FWD ) = 22.86，比其 5 年平均水平低 54%。AMD 的市销率 = 6.6，比 Nvidia 便宜，PS = 16。然而，众所周知，它比英特尔 ( INTC ) 更贵，英特尔 (INTC) 的市销率 = 2，因为增长放缓和执行问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83597cf33c7d65ea1cd97f526dfbe428\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts 提供的AMD PS 比率数据</p><p><b>04、风险及结语</b></p><p>高通胀环境正在挤压企业的投入成本。Meta ( META ) 和许多其他科技公司已经宣布了放缓招聘的计划。此外，微软 ( MSFT ) 和谷歌 ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) 等“云巨头”已宣布将其服务器和网络资产的使用寿命从四年延长至六年。微软首席财务官最近表示：</p><blockquote>“对我们软件的投资提高了我们操作服务器和网络设备的效率以及技术的进步，导致寿命延长到历史会计使用寿命之外”</blockquote><p>此类行动将直接影响 AMD 等公司，因为延迟的 IT 支出将影响其增长率以及业内许多其他公司。</p><p>在技术方面，AMD 是一家了不起的公司和真正的创新者。NVIDIA 试图收购该公司（但被阻止）的事实证明了其技术和资产的质量。它拥有快速增长的记录和出色的执行能力，这是英特尔等其他公司无法做到的。该股票仍然被低估，因此从长远来看，这看起来是一个很好的机会。但是，由于 IT 支出削减和游戏需求疲软，我确实预计明年会出现一些短期波动。</p></body></html>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n增长迅猛、市场规模增大，AMD却还陷在“低估值陷阱”中？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-13 19:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PITLaAy2a5nIJe0Zr3V5sg><strong>华尔街大事件</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）是高性能半导体芯片的领先供应商。该公司在过去几年中取得了巨大的增长，在截至 2022 年 6 月的季度，业绩继续大放异彩。尽管如此，在2021 年 11 月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PITLaAy2a5nIJe0Zr3V5sg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e516ca81c92e270102a5f7609fc5af99","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PITLaAy2a5nIJe0Zr3V5sg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1119283353","content_text":"摘要：AMD在云部门强劲增长的推动下，该公司的收入同比增长了 70%，管理层表现出信心，并在第二季度回购了 9.2 亿美元的股票，相对于历史倍数和内在价值，该股票被低估了。Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）是高性能半导体芯片的领先供应商。该公司在过去几年中取得了巨大的增长，在截至 2022 年 6 月的季度，业绩继续大放异彩。尽管如此，在2021 年 11 月至 2022 年 7 月期间，股价已下跌约 51%。这主要是受高通胀和利率上升环境的推动。然而，在过去的一个月里，由于市场看到了抓住“以合理价格增长”的机会，股价实际上已经暴涨了约 33%。AMD 在本质上和相对于历史倍数而言仍然被低估。YCharts 提供的AMD数据01、商业模式AMD 在其四个主要业务领域拥有 1350 亿美元的潜在市场：数据中心 - $50B TAM个人电脑 - $40B TAM嵌入式 - $29B TAM游戏 - $16B TAMAMD TAM（2022 年投资者报告）由于超大规模云、超级计算、5G、自动驾驶汽车、模拟（元界）甚至物联网（物联网）等技术不断发展，预计这一市场机会将会扩大。技术趋势（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 在其四个主要细分市场中的三个细分市场（包括数据中心、PC 和嵌入式）中都是强大的类别领导者。NVIDIA ( NVDA ) 与 AMD 作为游戏 GPU 的领导者以及强大的数据中心产品相抗衡。两家公司此前计划合并，这将创建一个势不可挡的芯片公司，但因“监管挑战”而停止。AMD 的数据中心服务器处理器是同类产品中最好的。它的 AMD EPYC是“世界上性能最高的服务器处理器”。这提供了比高性能计算 (HPC)、云和企业工作负载中的竞争对手更高的性能。它的芯片已经部署在 AWS、Microsoft Azure 和 Google Cloud 等三大云提供商的基础设施中。此外，AMD 的芯片可以在腾讯云和阿里云等中国云领先设施中找到。在最近一个季度，微软 Azure 部署了 AMD Instinct MI200 加速器进行大规模人工智能 ( AI ) 训练，这是对公司领先技术的又一巨大认可。AMD 数据中心产品（2022 年投资者报告）AMD 的产品也广泛部署在思科、戴尔、惠普企业 ( HPE )、华硕、联想等企业中。AMD 驱动的 Frontier 超级计算机最近突破了 exaflop 的障碍并获得了行业认可。管理层已将成为“新数据中心领导者”作为战略重点，他们的目标是通过利用一流的技术、持续创新和执行一致的路线图来实现这一目标。在游戏领域，AMD 的 Zen 2 芯片用于 PlayStation 5 和 Xbox Series X/S。对于客户端 PC，AMD 的 Ryzen 处理器在价值和功耗方面领先于英特尔，并在其他领域提供非常接近的性能。AMD 产品（2022 年投资者演示文稿）与英特尔相比，AMD 提供更高效消耗的主要原因是其更小的 7nm（纳米）芯片。英特尔在努力执行最新的 7nm 芯片设计后已经落后。与此同时，AMD 已经发布了更小的 5nm 芯片，这将是这种尺寸的“世界首创”，预计将于 2022 年秋季上市。AMD Zen 5nm（2022 年投资者报告）02、不断增长的金融AMD 宣布了 2022 年第二季度的强劲收益。总收入为 66 亿美元，同比增长 70%。AMD 收入（收益 AMD）这一收入增长由强劲的数据中心收入推动，同比快速增长 83% 至 14.86 亿美元，营业利润率高达 32%。这是其 EPYC（霄龙）数据中心处理器销售强劲的结果。由于移动处理器销售强劲，客户收入猛增 25% 至 21.52 亿美元。博彩收入也增长了 32% 至 17 亿美元。这是由半定制产品销售的增长推动的，但图形收入确实略有下降。细分市场增长（AMD Q2 22 收益）嵌入式计算收入加速至 12.57 亿美元。这增长了令人瞠目结舌的 2,228%，但这一增长主要是由最近完成的收购带来的收入所推动的。AMD以全股票交易方式收购了Xilinx，该交易于 2020 年宣布，但最终于 2022 年初完成。Xilinx 是航空航天和军事应用中常用的 FPGA（现场可编程门阵列）的发明者。AMD 的毛利率为 46%，同比下降 2%。营业收入为 5.26 亿美元，占收入的 8%。同比下降 37%，主要是由于与 Xilinx 收购相关的无形资产摊销所致。每股收益也受到同一问题的影响，下降了 0.27 美元，而去年同期为 0.58 美元。好消息是，与收购相关的收入下降似乎更多是资产负债表的调整，而不是“真实美元”的下降。所以，我不认为这是一个向前发展的主要问题。非公认会计原则摊薄后每股收益实际上从一年前的 0.63 美元增至 1.05 美元。每股收益（AMD Q2 财务）AMD 拥有稳健的资产负债表，拥有 59.9 亿美元的现金和短期投资。除了约 28 亿美元的总债务外，由于 9.06 亿美元的强劲自由现金流（同比增长 43%），这是可以管理的。AMD 资产负债表（第二季度收益）03、不温不火的指导对于 2022 年第三季度，AMD 管理层预测收入为 67 亿美元，与之前提到的 70% 相比，增长率略低于 55%。全年收入预计为 263 亿美元（+/- 3 亿美元），同比增长约 60%。这些都是了不起的数字，然而，AMD 的首席执行官 Su 预测 PC 领域的增长将放缓。“我们对个人电脑业务采取了更为保守的看法，所以在一个季度之前，我们会认为个人电脑业务会下滑，让我们称之为高个位数，”高级估值模型为了对 AMD 进行估值，我将最新的财务数据插入了我的高级估值模型，该模型使用贴现现金流估值法。我保守地预测明年的收入将增长 48%，因为该公司的收入将从更大的基数增长。此外，我预测未来 2 到 5 年收入增长 28%。这一估值是由数据中心领域的预期实力继续推动的，以及强劲的数字化转型顺风。AMD 股票估值 1（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）我预测该公司的营业利润率将在未来 7 年稳步增长至约 18%，这主要得益于利润率较高的云领域的强劲增长。这些利润数字包括公司的研发费用，我已将其资本化以提高准确性。AMD 股票估值 2（由作者 Ben 在 Motivation 2 Invest 创建）鉴于这些数字，我得到每股 114 美元的公允价值。该股目前的交易价格为每股 98 美元，因此被低估了约 15%。作为一个额外的数据点，AMD 的市盈率 (P/E) ( FWD ) = 22.86，比其 5 年平均水平低 54%。AMD 的市销率 = 6.6，比 Nvidia 便宜，PS = 16。然而，众所周知，它比英特尔 ( INTC ) 更贵，英特尔 (INTC) 的市销率 = 2，因为增长放缓和执行问题。YCharts 提供的AMD PS 比率数据04、风险及结语高通胀环境正在挤压企业的投入成本。Meta ( META ) 和许多其他科技公司已经宣布了放缓招聘的计划。此外，微软 ( MSFT ) 和谷歌 ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) 等“云巨头”已宣布将其服务器和网络资产的使用寿命从四年延长至六年。微软首席财务官最近表示：“对我们软件的投资提高了我们操作服务器和网络设备的效率以及技术的进步，导致寿命延长到历史会计使用寿命之外”此类行动将直接影响 AMD 等公司，因为延迟的 IT 支出将影响其增长率以及业内许多其他公司。在技术方面，AMD 是一家了不起的公司和真正的创新者。NVIDIA 试图收购该公司（但被阻止）的事实证明了其技术和资产的质量。它拥有快速增长的记录和出色的执行能力，这是英特尔等其他公司无法做到的。该股票仍然被低估，因此从长远来看，这看起来是一个很好的机会。但是，由于 IT 支出削减和游戏需求疲软，我确实预计明年会出现一些短期波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909842462,"gmtCreate":1658853528156,"gmtModify":1676536217858,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909842462","repostId":"1198339027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198339027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658848376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198339027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198339027","media":"人神共奋","summary":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>不可预测，但可应对</blockquote><p><b>可能性大的小概率事件？</b></p><p>每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”</p><p>我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“<b>黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见</b>，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”</p><p>总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”</p><p>嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！</p><p>既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？</p><p>《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。</p><p><b>黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。</b></p><p>这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。</p><p><b>我们不知道“我们不知道什么”</b></p><p>黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——<b>我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律</b>，体现在三个方面：</p><p><b>第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件</b></p><p>这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？</p><p>不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？</p><p>非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：</p><p><b>第二、过去的经验不可靠</b></p><p>在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。</p><p><b>经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠</b>，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：</p><p><b>第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事</b></p><p>假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？</p><p>自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。</p><p>作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“<b>我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因</b>”。</p><p><b>小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事</b>，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。</p><p>当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。</p><p>以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。</p><p>事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。</p><p><b>只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决</b></p><p>在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。</p><p>CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，<b>这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。</b></p><p>后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。</p><p>当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。</p><p><b>金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。</b></p><p>到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。</p><p>直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。</p><p>但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……</p><p>大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。</p><p>实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。</p><p>危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。</p><p>在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。</p><p>这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。</p><p><b>这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。</b></p><p>这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。</p><p>人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，<b>如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？</b></p><p><b>人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲</b>，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。</p><p>这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：<b>只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。</b></p><p>所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。</p><p><b>应对黑天鹅的三种方法</b></p><p>应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：</p><p><b>第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度</b></p><p>最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：</p><blockquote>“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。</blockquote><blockquote>不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。</blockquote><blockquote>想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。</blockquote><blockquote>事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”</blockquote><p>看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。</p><p>这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。</p><p><b>巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。</b></p><p><b>第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度</b></p><p>塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，<b>黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。</b></p><p>塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。</p><p>但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：</p><blockquote>“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”</blockquote><p>为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成<b>“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。</b></p><p>（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）</p><p><b>第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”</b></p><p>桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，<b>“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。</b></p><p>为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。<b>达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。</b></p><p>但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。</p><p>市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>黑天鹅思维的要点 ：</p><p>1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；</p><p>2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；</p><p>3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；</p><p>最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1583721040246","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-26 23:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd><strong>人神共奋</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198339027","content_text":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。我们不知道“我们不知道什么”黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律，体现在三个方面：第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：第二、过去的经验不可靠在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因”。小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。应对黑天鹅的三种方法应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的苹果、可口可乐，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出通用汽车的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。总结黑天鹅思维的要点 ：1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909849432,"gmtCreate":1658851681026,"gmtModify":1676536217738,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909849432","repostId":"1113527890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113527890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658849122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113527890?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场担忧情绪蔓延下，自由现金流或成谷歌的渡市筏？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113527890","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>摘要：</b>关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。</p><p>Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。</p><p>谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的投资选择。</p><p>相对于谷歌的销售潜力而言，较低的市盈率降低了风险，而且在各种市场条件下增加现金流的能力使GOOG成为最值得投资的股票之一。</p><p><b>01、巨大的自由现金流和股东友好型管理</b></p><p>谷歌的管理层已经证明，他们的眼光是长远的，并以合理的、增值的方式使用现金。谷歌同时走在了众多行业的前列，无论是几年前收购YouTube，还是在云市场上明智而有远见的投资，还是最近与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(Amazon)合作，利用电子商务扩张获利。</p><p>由于这种远见卓识，公司的收入和自由现金流稳步增长。投资者对谷歌的自由现金流增长特别感兴趣，因为自由现金流是一个统计数据，它表明了一家公司可以将多少现金以股息或股票回购的形式返还给股东。</p><p>说到现金流，谷歌真是一头猛兽。仅在最近一个季度，该公司就从运营中获得了251亿美元的现金。扣除98亿美元的资本支出后，该公司的资本支出为153亿美元。谷歌的自由现金流增长非常惊人，在过去五年里，总自由现金流增长了141.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>数据来源：YCharts</p><p><b>02、谷歌用这些现金做什么?</b></p><p>它用相当一部分自由现金流在市场上回购股票。Alphabet董事会已批准该公司回购700亿美元的股票，交易将在管理层认为合适的时候进行。谷歌的自由现金流和股票回购随着时间的推移而增加。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>数据来源：YCharts</p><p>自由现金流趋势为正，该公司即将经历一个可能推动其现金流达到新高度的主要触发器。</p><p><b>03、增长催化剂：YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>就在几天前，YouTube宣布与电子商务巨头Shopify建立新的合作伙伴关系，成为头条新闻。</p><p>作为合作的一部分，Shopify将把其购物系统整合到创作者的YouTube页面，允许观众直接在YouTube上购物，而不需要离开网站。</p><p>这次合作得益于两大因素:YouTube每月有20亿登录用户，Shopify是面向小企业的领先平台。这种关系有相当大的协同效应，YouTube的创意社区将从综合购物服务中获益良多，而Shopify将从进入一个可能供应不足的市场中获益。</p><p>在我看来，中小企业与YouTube或Shopify平台这两个核心用户有很多重叠之处。YouTube将能够受益于Shopify的库存同步专业知识，而生产者将能够简单地使他们的产品可在他们的渠道上购买，从而产生无缝的购买体验。YouTube上的Shopify连接还允许制作人在直播过程中销售商品，这不仅可能改变电商业务，也可能改变谷歌。</p><p>我对谷歌的潜力感到非常兴奋，相信谷歌在这里有非常好的收入机会。谷歌主要通过广告将YouTube收入囊中，但它也提供YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等订阅服务。与电子商务的合作将很快公布，这可能会成为视频流媒体平台出色销售发展的强大加速器。</p><p><b>04、谷歌的收益率为5%，股票非常便宜</b></p><p>投资很简单。你购买的是在各自行业内具有稳定现金流和吸引长期增长潜力的优质企业。在理想情况下，这种增加被大大打折，就像谷歌的情况一样。</p><p>市场预计2022年每股收益为5.47美元，这意味着按目前110美元的价格计算，每股收益为5.1%。(隐含市盈率19.8倍)。根据明年预期每股收益6.46美元计算，谷歌的收益收益率将升至6.0%。(隐含收益倍数16.8倍)。</p><p>在市场普遍预期年收益增长18.1%的情况下，5%的收益率(相当于20倍的市盈率)是相当低的，这表明市场对谷歌的增长过于担忧。然而，YouTube和Shopify之间的关系可能有助于谷歌的收入增长，目前的预测并没有完全反映出来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>收入估算（谷歌）</p><p>除了市盈率之外，估值指数最近也趋于稳定，这表明市场对谷歌的避险情绪有所上升。</p><p>2022年，价格与自由现金流比率、企业价值与EBITDA比率、企业价值与现金流比率等估值指标均大幅下降，表明市场已经开始低估谷歌的增长前景。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>数据来源：YCharts</p><p><b>05、为什么谷歌的估值会更低</b></p><p>谷歌的现金流严重依赖于公司在数字广告领域的表现。经济衰退有可能减少谷歌的广告收入，这可能反映在自由现金流下降。</p><p>考虑到谷歌的自由现金流数额，该技术业务很好地应对了经济低迷。在经济衰退开始之前，电子商务支出的下降不会破坏YouTube和Shopify的联盟，但市场可能需要更长的时间才能认识到其真正的潜力。</p><p><b>06、结论</b></p><p>在16.8倍市盈率的情况下，谷歌非常划算，在当前股价下跌的情况下，我大举买入了这只股票。</p><p>谷歌并不是目前唯一一家遭受打击的大型科技公司，但该公司的现金流非常强劲。尽管该公司的股票可能会因为经济消息而在短期内下跌，但该公司的长期业务导向相当强，自由现金流正在很好地增加。</p></body></html>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场担忧情绪蔓延下，自由现金流或成谷歌的渡市筏？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场担忧情绪蔓延下，自由现金流或成谷歌的渡市筏？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-26 23:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ><strong>华尔街大事件</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4576":"AR","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113527890","content_text":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的投资选择。相对于谷歌的销售潜力而言，较低的市盈率降低了风险，而且在各种市场条件下增加现金流的能力使GOOG成为最值得投资的股票之一。01、巨大的自由现金流和股东友好型管理谷歌的管理层已经证明，他们的眼光是长远的，并以合理的、增值的方式使用现金。谷歌同时走在了众多行业的前列，无论是几年前收购YouTube，还是在云市场上明智而有远见的投资，还是最近与亚马逊(Amazon)合作，利用电子商务扩张获利。由于这种远见卓识，公司的收入和自由现金流稳步增长。投资者对谷歌的自由现金流增长特别感兴趣，因为自由现金流是一个统计数据，它表明了一家公司可以将多少现金以股息或股票回购的形式返还给股东。说到现金流，谷歌真是一头猛兽。仅在最近一个季度，该公司就从运营中获得了251亿美元的现金。扣除98亿美元的资本支出后，该公司的资本支出为153亿美元。谷歌的自由现金流增长非常惊人，在过去五年里，总自由现金流增长了141.9%。数据来源：YCharts02、谷歌用这些现金做什么?它用相当一部分自由现金流在市场上回购股票。Alphabet董事会已批准该公司回购700亿美元的股票，交易将在管理层认为合适的时候进行。谷歌的自由现金流和股票回购随着时间的推移而增加。数据来源：YCharts自由现金流趋势为正，该公司即将经历一个可能推动其现金流达到新高度的主要触发器。03、增长催化剂：YouTube/Shopify Partnership就在几天前，YouTube宣布与电子商务巨头Shopify建立新的合作伙伴关系，成为头条新闻。作为合作的一部分，Shopify将把其购物系统整合到创作者的YouTube页面，允许观众直接在YouTube上购物，而不需要离开网站。这次合作得益于两大因素:YouTube每月有20亿登录用户，Shopify是面向小企业的领先平台。这种关系有相当大的协同效应，YouTube的创意社区将从综合购物服务中获益良多，而Shopify将从进入一个可能供应不足的市场中获益。在我看来，中小企业与YouTube或Shopify平台这两个核心用户有很多重叠之处。YouTube将能够受益于Shopify的库存同步专业知识，而生产者将能够简单地使他们的产品可在他们的渠道上购买，从而产生无缝的购买体验。YouTube上的Shopify连接还允许制作人在直播过程中销售商品，这不仅可能改变电商业务，也可能改变谷歌。我对谷歌的潜力感到非常兴奋，相信谷歌在这里有非常好的收入机会。谷歌主要通过广告将YouTube收入囊中，但它也提供YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等订阅服务。与电子商务的合作将很快公布，这可能会成为视频流媒体平台出色销售发展的强大加速器。04、谷歌的收益率为5%，股票非常便宜投资很简单。你购买的是在各自行业内具有稳定现金流和吸引长期增长潜力的优质企业。在理想情况下，这种增加被大大打折，就像谷歌的情况一样。市场预计2022年每股收益为5.47美元，这意味着按目前110美元的价格计算，每股收益为5.1%。(隐含市盈率19.8倍)。根据明年预期每股收益6.46美元计算，谷歌的收益收益率将升至6.0%。(隐含收益倍数16.8倍)。在市场普遍预期年收益增长18.1%的情况下，5%的收益率(相当于20倍的市盈率)是相当低的，这表明市场对谷歌的增长过于担忧。然而，YouTube和Shopify之间的关系可能有助于谷歌的收入增长，目前的预测并没有完全反映出来。收入估算（谷歌）除了市盈率之外，估值指数最近也趋于稳定，这表明市场对谷歌的避险情绪有所上升。2022年，价格与自由现金流比率、企业价值与EBITDA比率、企业价值与现金流比率等估值指标均大幅下降，表明市场已经开始低估谷歌的增长前景。数据来源：YCharts05、为什么谷歌的估值会更低谷歌的现金流严重依赖于公司在数字广告领域的表现。经济衰退有可能减少谷歌的广告收入，这可能反映在自由现金流下降。考虑到谷歌的自由现金流数额，该技术业务很好地应对了经济低迷。在经济衰退开始之前，电子商务支出的下降不会破坏YouTube和Shopify的联盟，但市场可能需要更长的时间才能认识到其真正的潜力。06、结论在16.8倍市盈率的情况下，谷歌非常划算，在当前股价下跌的情况下，我大举买入了这只股票。谷歌并不是目前唯一一家遭受打击的大型科技公司，但该公司的现金流非常强劲。尽管该公司的股票可能会因为经济消息而在短期内下跌，但该公司的长期业务导向相当强，自由现金流正在很好地增加。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044924018,"gmtCreate":1656692704634,"gmtModify":1676535878685,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","listText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","text":"Recover to what level ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044924018","repostId":"1188024956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188024956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656641744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188024956?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188024956","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analy","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188024956","content_text":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as investors are seeking safer investments amid persistent macro uncertainty. Shares of Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) have shed 49% of their value year-to-date. While the firm’s long-term prospects look promising, Wall Street analysts are mixed in their sentiment on the stock.Palantir helps government and commercial organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations at scale.The data analytics firm’s first-quarter earnings miss and weak second-quarter guidance also dragged down its stock last month.Financial SnapshotPalantir’s Q1’22 revenue increased 31% to $446 million, but adjusted EPS declined 50% to $0.02. Revenue surpassed analysts’ expectations while adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Also, the company’s Q2’22 outlook of $470 million (base case) lagged Wall Street’s estimates.Investors also noted a slowdown in Palantir’s Government revenue, which grew 16% to nearly $242 million in Q1’22, compared to the 26% growth rate in Q4’21.Often criticized for its over-dependence on government contracts, Palantir started focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial markets over the recent times. In Q1’22, overall Commercial revenue grew 54% to about $205 million, with U.S Commercial revenue surging 136%.Looking ahead, Palantir is optimistic about delivering annual revenue growth of 30% or more through 2025. The company feels that there is a “wide range of potential upside” to deliver revenue above its Q2 outlook, including demand triggered by the ongoing geopolitical events.Wall Street’s TakeRecently, Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges initiated coverage of Palantir with a Hold rating and a price target of $10. Borges feels that Palantir is uniquely positioned in an ecosystem of data analytics vendors and she is positive on the company’s longer-term opportunity to succeed in the enterprise.That said, Borges assigned a Hold rating on the stock citing limited visibility into the cadence of the business in any given quarter, especially in a weaker macro backdrop.Meanwhile, last week, Bank of America Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating and a price target of $13. Perez views the company as a beneficiary of “rapidly growing demand” for artificial intelligence platforms in both commercial and government end markets.Perez further adds that Palantir’s “dominant” position in the AI-powered software market should drive over 30% annual revenue growth and improving profits.Overall, the Street is sidelined on the stock with a Hold rating based on three Buys, six Holds, and three Sells. The average Palantir price target of $11.32 implies 22.64% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionPalantir’s first-quarter results failed to impress investors and Wall Street analysts. Concerns about the slowdown in Government revenue growth and the company’s ability to meet its growth targets amid challenging times are keeping the majority of Wall Street analysts covering Palantir stock on the sidelines.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570479349727470","authorIdStr":"3570479349727470"},"content":"$13 within 3 months.","text":"$13 within 3 months.","html":"$13 within 3 months."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059625320,"gmtCreate":1654359256960,"gmtModify":1676535436113,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLTR worth to invest","listText":"PLTR worth to invest","text":"PLTR worth to invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059625320","repostId":"2240194962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240194962","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654249825,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240194962?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is A Buy: Let Me Tell You Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240194962","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Black_Kira/iStock via Getty ImagesReputation, leverage on a large product portfolio, ability to inte","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfcb4f62efa308070bcfccefe2b9353\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Black_Kira/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><h4><b>Reputation, leverage on a large product portfolio, ability to internationalize its business and conquering new target markets are the keys to the future success of Palantir.</b></h4><p>The company has built a strong reputation in the AI market by working with the Government sector and, more recently, by expanding its business to the Commercial sector. Revenues have grown at 37% CAGR between 2018 and 2021, with improved GP% at 78% on revenues in 2021.</p><p>R&amp;D costs sustained in the past helped the company develop a wide range of products addressable to several application markets, from cybersecurity to automotive.</p><p>That’s why a further significant increase in revenues could be expected at low marginal development costs.</p><p>I ran a DCF projection where sales could reach $3.6B in 2025 (24% CAGR from 2021), with GP% at 78% and the company continuing generating positive cash flows and turning profitable in 2024. That is a quite prudential scenario, considering that the market is growing at 38.1% CAGR and no leader has emerged till know. Based on that, I expect a target price in the $11-$11.50 range as a stand-alone business. Further upside potential may result from an M&amp;A scenario.</p><p>But the market is still bearish on the stock, which on May 31st was down 53% on a YTD basis.</p><h2>What are the reasons behind that trend?</h2><ol><li>Company revenues mainly come from the Government sector, accounting for 54% in Q1 2022 (61% in Q1 2021 and 58% in FY 2021 respectively).</li></ol><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ac0d5258cae1637813bcfc4fc0aeed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.palantir.com</p><p></p><p>2. The company tried to expand the commercial sector, but these results are quite recent.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61d4b1e1757c9dc6536dc382ac68127\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.palantir.com</p><p></p><p>3. The commercial sector target may have diverted the sales efforts previously devoted to the Government industry, whose growth pace is actually decreasing. In addition, average revenues/customer seem to show a decreasing path in Q1 2022 if you consider that 12-month trailing customers are more than tripling while revenues are increasing at a much lower pace.</p><p>This may be a sign that conquering and retaining this kind of customers is still a time-consuming business. Contracts are smaller and split among a higher number of clients.</p><p>4. Government contracts are complex and require a significant degree of tailored-made activities. As Palantir declares in its FY 2021 Financial Statements:</p><blockquote><i>We historically have not realized all of the revenue from the full deal value of our customer contracts, and we may not do so in the future. This is because the actual timing and amount of revenue under contracts included are subject to various contingencies, including exercise of contractual options, customers not terminating their contracts, and renegotiation of contracts. In addition, delays in the completion of the U.S. government’s budgeting process, the use of continuing resolutions, and a potential lapse in appropriations, or similar events in other jurisdictions, could adversely affect our ability to timely recognize revenue under certain government contracts</i></blockquote><p>5. Palantir is 20 years old: it generates cash, but it has always been unprofitable. The discrepancy between profit and cash is mainly due to the significant amount of stock options that the company is using to pay its employees.</p><p>All that is true and proven by public information and numbers.</p><h2>Indeed, several factors need to be considered to depict the full story.</h2><h3><b>a) Market and competitive arena</b></h3><p>AI and Cybersecurity, where Palantir is active, are huge markets, growing at a tremendous pace:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ba476e3a3d6192df4df50633b82fb5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.globenewswire.com</p><p></p><p>Some big operators set foot in the arena:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41c98371beb90d8750f8d87c5c7181c6\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.fortunebusinessinsights.com</p><p></p><p>But the role they may have in the future is still a question mark. In fact, market analysis are not aligned when it comes to AI top players (see MarketsandMarkets and fortunebusinessinsights.com for a comparison). And this is even more palpable when looking at the cybersecurity landscape.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f310bcaab88530828be8a0666215272f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.persistencemarketresearch.com</p><p></p><p>All that depends on several variables: the players’ specific know-how, the kind of product or service they can provide, the application target market.</p><p>In none of the above statistics Palantir appears. As the company acknowledges in its FY202I Annual Report:</p><blockquote><i>We are fundamentally competing with the internal software development efforts of our potential customers. Organizations frequently attempt to build their own data platforms before turning to buy ours. In trying to build something on their own, they generally rely on a patchwork of custom solutions, outside consultants, IT services companies, packaged enterprise and open source software, and significant internal IT resources. In addition, our competitors include large enterprise software companies, government contractors, and system integrators. We also face competition from emerging companies as well as established companies that are only now beginning to enter this market.</i></blockquote><p>AI competencies are quite a new ground where know-how still needs to be exploited and strengthened. In addition, some businesses are focusing their AI competencies to specific fields (i.e. cloud security, content creation, process efficiency…) in an attempt to create niches and build strong barriers to new entrants.</p><h3><b>b) Know-how</b></h3><p>If you consider costs sustained to provide high value solutions to the Government sectors, you may argue that Palantir is not correctly pricing its products and services to this customer segment.</p><p>Indeed, the company is actually building and reinforcing its know-how and technical reputation to increase sales and acquire new customers in its original segment and in new ones as well.</p><p>Recent contracts, like the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> signed with the UK Ministry of Defense, are supporting this theory. The most think of the Government Sector as the US Government only. But expansion and internationalization are possible in this arena as well (at certain conditions) as the Company points out:</p><blockquote><i>We generally do not enter into business with customers or governments whose positions or actions we consider inconsistent with our mission to support Western liberal democracy and its strategic allies</i></blockquote><p>In addition, Palantir has provided the US Government with ad hoc solutions, from intelligence to healthcare. It’s difficult to argue that products for private clients may come at high marginal costs.</p><p>Briefly, operating expenses devoted to the US Government projects may be interpreted as an R&amp;D asset to reach new global customers among institutions and commercial companies.</p><h3><b>c) ERP-like</b></h3><p>Few remember that SAP (SAP), a global leader in ERP products, was born in 1973 in Germany and it took more than 20 years to become the strong performing brand that everybody now knows.</p><p>AI solutions are similar to what ERP software was at the beginning of 2000: designed (and highly customized) for big corporations, re-adapted and made affordable for small businesses in the following decades. All that was possible thanks to high R&amp;D expenses at the very beginning.</p><p>Don&#39;t forget the differences, anyway. ERP solutions are process-based. It’s not a case, in fact, that in its recent presentation SAP has unveiled its incubation strategy, where “Business Process Intelligence” and “Sovereign Clouds” are two key components.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87ecafd9e588a37a43c085a8e4e47b0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.sap.com</p><p></p><p>Apart from the sovereign cloud component, present in Palantir portfolio as well, there is no overlap. Palantir AI is forward-looking “Foundational Software for Tomorrow – Delivered Today™.”</p><p>But Palantir products don’t come without integration tools: software integration is the future for AI as well.</p><h3><b>d) Key industry players</b></h3><p>They are focusing on R&amp;D to offer AI customized solutions, but that’s not enough. The market still lacks AI adequate specialists, both from a quantitative and a qualitative point of view. As a consequence, the major players are negotiating partnership and buying startups to reach their objective. As the competitive field is large, one needs to focus. It’s not a case that even newborn companies are trying to exploit their niche. My personal experience with startups in Italy seems to confirm that trend: VCs are riding the waves too, preparing the field in advance for a promising exit where industry players could be the acquirers.</p><h2><b>May Palantir be a Target?</b></h2><p>That seems quite interesting. Palantir product portfolio is wide and it targets different customer segments:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c84cfc9d9846851cb7455f52bcd8f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>www.palantir.com</p><p></p><ul><li>The company has proven successful in retaining the Government as a customer and expanding its business towards further sectors</li><li>It generates cash and its economics have significantly improved in the very last years, both in absolute value and as a % on revenues</li><li>Palantir people are a key to its success. They are an asset, a system inside the company. For competitors, it’s not just a matter of hiring resources, but of orchestrating performances</li><li>Valuation is at discount. According to my DCF analysis, I expect an upside potential of about 27% versus May 31st closing value, with target price at $11. This does not come without risks, as it’s strongly related to the capability of Palantir to leverage on its R&amp;D assets to penetrate the global market and retain its people.</li><li>Some of the big players have plenty of cash and may be interested in acquiring technology, market share, know-how (or at least a controlling stake in it). In this case, I don’t expect the offer to be based on a 52-week historical average quote: that would imply a price around $18, that is more than double the present quotation. A believe a more probable scenario could be a premium taking into account that the company would provide a “keys in hand” solution to the Acquirer. This may result in a target price of $14-$15, a further upside potential in the range of 27-36%.</li></ul><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Palantir is a buy, both as a stand-alone business and in the eventuality of a deal.</p><p>In the former case, it has an upside potential coming from its strengths and reputation in the AI market, with sales expansion on an international basis and leverage on deep technical skills. Target price at $11-$11.5.</p><p>In addition, tech corporations may look at the company as an interesting target to internalize AI know-how and market positioning as well. Target price at $14-$15.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is A Buy: Let Me Tell You Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is A Buy: Let Me Tell You Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-03 17:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516212-palantir-is-a-buy-let-me-tell-you-why><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Black_Kira/iStock via Getty ImagesReputation, leverage on a large product portfolio, ability to internationalize its business and conquering new target markets are the keys to the future success of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516212-palantir-is-a-buy-let-me-tell-you-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516212-palantir-is-a-buy-let-me-tell-you-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2240194962","content_text":"Black_Kira/iStock via Getty ImagesReputation, leverage on a large product portfolio, ability to internationalize its business and conquering new target markets are the keys to the future success of Palantir.The company has built a strong reputation in the AI market by working with the Government sector and, more recently, by expanding its business to the Commercial sector. Revenues have grown at 37% CAGR between 2018 and 2021, with improved GP% at 78% on revenues in 2021.R&D costs sustained in the past helped the company develop a wide range of products addressable to several application markets, from cybersecurity to automotive.That’s why a further significant increase in revenues could be expected at low marginal development costs.I ran a DCF projection where sales could reach $3.6B in 2025 (24% CAGR from 2021), with GP% at 78% and the company continuing generating positive cash flows and turning profitable in 2024. That is a quite prudential scenario, considering that the market is growing at 38.1% CAGR and no leader has emerged till know. Based on that, I expect a target price in the $11-$11.50 range as a stand-alone business. Further upside potential may result from an M&A scenario.But the market is still bearish on the stock, which on May 31st was down 53% on a YTD basis.What are the reasons behind that trend?Company revenues mainly come from the Government sector, accounting for 54% in Q1 2022 (61% in Q1 2021 and 58% in FY 2021 respectively).www.palantir.com2. The company tried to expand the commercial sector, but these results are quite recent.www.palantir.com3. The commercial sector target may have diverted the sales efforts previously devoted to the Government industry, whose growth pace is actually decreasing. In addition, average revenues/customer seem to show a decreasing path in Q1 2022 if you consider that 12-month trailing customers are more than tripling while revenues are increasing at a much lower pace.This may be a sign that conquering and retaining this kind of customers is still a time-consuming business. Contracts are smaller and split among a higher number of clients.4. Government contracts are complex and require a significant degree of tailored-made activities. As Palantir declares in its FY 2021 Financial Statements:We historically have not realized all of the revenue from the full deal value of our customer contracts, and we may not do so in the future. This is because the actual timing and amount of revenue under contracts included are subject to various contingencies, including exercise of contractual options, customers not terminating their contracts, and renegotiation of contracts. In addition, delays in the completion of the U.S. government’s budgeting process, the use of continuing resolutions, and a potential lapse in appropriations, or similar events in other jurisdictions, could adversely affect our ability to timely recognize revenue under certain government contracts5. Palantir is 20 years old: it generates cash, but it has always been unprofitable. The discrepancy between profit and cash is mainly due to the significant amount of stock options that the company is using to pay its employees.All that is true and proven by public information and numbers.Indeed, several factors need to be considered to depict the full story.a) Market and competitive arenaAI and Cybersecurity, where Palantir is active, are huge markets, growing at a tremendous pace:www.globenewswire.comSome big operators set foot in the arena:www.fortunebusinessinsights.comBut the role they may have in the future is still a question mark. In fact, market analysis are not aligned when it comes to AI top players (see MarketsandMarkets and fortunebusinessinsights.com for a comparison). And this is even more palpable when looking at the cybersecurity landscape.www.persistencemarketresearch.comAll that depends on several variables: the players’ specific know-how, the kind of product or service they can provide, the application target market.In none of the above statistics Palantir appears. As the company acknowledges in its FY202I Annual Report:We are fundamentally competing with the internal software development efforts of our potential customers. Organizations frequently attempt to build their own data platforms before turning to buy ours. In trying to build something on their own, they generally rely on a patchwork of custom solutions, outside consultants, IT services companies, packaged enterprise and open source software, and significant internal IT resources. In addition, our competitors include large enterprise software companies, government contractors, and system integrators. We also face competition from emerging companies as well as established companies that are only now beginning to enter this market.AI competencies are quite a new ground where know-how still needs to be exploited and strengthened. In addition, some businesses are focusing their AI competencies to specific fields (i.e. cloud security, content creation, process efficiency…) in an attempt to create niches and build strong barriers to new entrants.b) Know-howIf you consider costs sustained to provide high value solutions to the Government sectors, you may argue that Palantir is not correctly pricing its products and services to this customer segment.Indeed, the company is actually building and reinforcing its know-how and technical reputation to increase sales and acquire new customers in its original segment and in new ones as well.Recent contracts, like the one signed with the UK Ministry of Defense, are supporting this theory. The most think of the Government Sector as the US Government only. But expansion and internationalization are possible in this arena as well (at certain conditions) as the Company points out:We generally do not enter into business with customers or governments whose positions or actions we consider inconsistent with our mission to support Western liberal democracy and its strategic alliesIn addition, Palantir has provided the US Government with ad hoc solutions, from intelligence to healthcare. It’s difficult to argue that products for private clients may come at high marginal costs.Briefly, operating expenses devoted to the US Government projects may be interpreted as an R&D asset to reach new global customers among institutions and commercial companies.c) ERP-likeFew remember that SAP (SAP), a global leader in ERP products, was born in 1973 in Germany and it took more than 20 years to become the strong performing brand that everybody now knows.AI solutions are similar to what ERP software was at the beginning of 2000: designed (and highly customized) for big corporations, re-adapted and made affordable for small businesses in the following decades. All that was possible thanks to high R&D expenses at the very beginning.Don't forget the differences, anyway. ERP solutions are process-based. It’s not a case, in fact, that in its recent presentation SAP has unveiled its incubation strategy, where “Business Process Intelligence” and “Sovereign Clouds” are two key components.www.sap.comApart from the sovereign cloud component, present in Palantir portfolio as well, there is no overlap. Palantir AI is forward-looking “Foundational Software for Tomorrow – Delivered Today™.”But Palantir products don’t come without integration tools: software integration is the future for AI as well.d) Key industry playersThey are focusing on R&D to offer AI customized solutions, but that’s not enough. The market still lacks AI adequate specialists, both from a quantitative and a qualitative point of view. As a consequence, the major players are negotiating partnership and buying startups to reach their objective. As the competitive field is large, one needs to focus. It’s not a case that even newborn companies are trying to exploit their niche. My personal experience with startups in Italy seems to confirm that trend: VCs are riding the waves too, preparing the field in advance for a promising exit where industry players could be the acquirers.May Palantir be a Target?That seems quite interesting. Palantir product portfolio is wide and it targets different customer segments:www.palantir.comThe company has proven successful in retaining the Government as a customer and expanding its business towards further sectorsIt generates cash and its economics have significantly improved in the very last years, both in absolute value and as a % on revenuesPalantir people are a key to its success. They are an asset, a system inside the company. For competitors, it’s not just a matter of hiring resources, but of orchestrating performancesValuation is at discount. According to my DCF analysis, I expect an upside potential of about 27% versus May 31st closing value, with target price at $11. This does not come without risks, as it’s strongly related to the capability of Palantir to leverage on its R&D assets to penetrate the global market and retain its people.Some of the big players have plenty of cash and may be interested in acquiring technology, market share, know-how (or at least a controlling stake in it). In this case, I don’t expect the offer to be based on a 52-week historical average quote: that would imply a price around $18, that is more than double the present quotation. A believe a more probable scenario could be a premium taking into account that the company would provide a “keys in hand” solution to the Acquirer. This may result in a target price of $14-$15, a further upside potential in the range of 27-36%.ConclusionPalantir is a buy, both as a stand-alone business and in the eventuality of a deal.In the former case, it has an upside potential coming from its strengths and reputation in the AI market, with sales expansion on an international basis and leverage on deep technical skills. Target price at $11-$11.5.In addition, tech corporations may look at the company as an interesting target to internalize AI know-how and market positioning as well. Target price at $14-$15.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059077965,"gmtCreate":1654270945157,"gmtModify":1676535423460,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059077965","repostId":"2240267835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240267835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654270459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240267835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 23:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240267835","media":"金融界","summary":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。</p><p>汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。</p><p>该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。</p><p>以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。</p><p>本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。</p><p>在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。</p><p>此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-03 23:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","ACVA":"ACV Auctions Inc."},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240267835","content_text":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的亚马逊也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。Relay Therapeutics是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了Signature Bank、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和Workday。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026540751,"gmtCreate":1653405010673,"gmtModify":1676535276032,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026540751","repostId":"1105338908","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105338908","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653394383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105338908?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 20:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 恐慌情绪蔓延！三大期指全线下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105338908","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月24日，美股三大股指期货走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.7%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.73%；标普500指数期货跌1.13%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前多数走低，哔哩哔哩、蔚来、理想汽车、小鹏汽车、","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月24日，美股三大股指期货走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.7%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.73%；标普500指数期货跌1.13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfee7aa43145f122264449dbb2dc6a3e\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>热门中概股盘前多数走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨超4%，Q1营收236亿元同比增长14.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨超5%，公布2022年第一季度财报：总净收入24亿元，同比增89.5%。</p><p>美股明星科技股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌超1%。</p><p>美股社交媒体股盘前集体走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>超31%，公司警告称二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标，并计划放缓招聘。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>跌超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>跌超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨超2%，Q1营收同比增长12%至10.7亿美元，公司上调2023财年调整后EPS业绩展望。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>盘前涨超2%，将启动股票回购计划，以最高10亿英镑的价格购买公司每股25便士的普通股。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.18%，法国CAC40跌0.84%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9406b21c8bf70c09716b41de26469e5b\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅拉升，截止发稿，WTI原油涨0.51%，报110.85美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.58%，报114.08美元/桶。</p><p>达沃斯经济论坛开幕，全球经济放缓的担忧升温，这给油价压力。不过，美国夏季原油需求增加，俄乌冲突等因素始终支持油价。油价依然陷入到区间震荡之中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c83abe201a745f0e253b3a1660b897\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b4e3929738a71dcdb3bda159fd9da7c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.51%，报1857.3美元/盎司。</p><p>鉴于美联储在6月和7月会议上各加息至少50个基点的预期已经被消化，投资者继续解除对美元进一步上涨的押注，有利于以美元计价的黄金。长期前景仍较为乐观，积极看涨金价的交易商有理由保持谨慎。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d992bbc01adb94feb4df0e66278c87\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 恐慌情绪蔓延！三大期指全线下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 恐慌情绪蔓延！三大期指全线下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-24 20:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月24日，美股三大股指期货走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.7%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.73%；标普500指数期货跌1.13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfee7aa43145f122264449dbb2dc6a3e\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>热门中概股盘前多数走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨超4%，Q1营收236亿元同比增长14.8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>盘前涨超5%，公布2022年第一季度财报：总净收入24亿元，同比增89.5%。</p><p>美股明星科技股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌超1%。</p><p>美股社交媒体股盘前集体走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>超31%，公司警告称二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标，并计划放缓招聘。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>跌超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>跌超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨超2%，Q1营收同比增长12%至10.7亿美元，公司上调2023财年调整后EPS业绩展望。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>盘前涨超2%，将启动股票回购计划，以最高10亿英镑的价格购买公司每股25便士的普通股。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.18%，法国CAC40跌0.84%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9406b21c8bf70c09716b41de26469e5b\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅拉升，截止发稿，WTI原油涨0.51%，报110.85美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.58%，报114.08美元/桶。</p><p>达沃斯经济论坛开幕，全球经济放缓的担忧升温，这给油价压力。不过，美国夏季原油需求增加，俄乌冲突等因素始终支持油价。油价依然陷入到区间震荡之中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c83abe201a745f0e253b3a1660b897\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b4e3929738a71dcdb3bda159fd9da7c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.51%，报1857.3美元/盎司。</p><p>鉴于美联储在6月和7月会议上各加息至少50个基点的预期已经被消化，投资者继续解除对美元进一步上涨的押注，有利于以美元计价的黄金。长期前景仍较为乐观，积极看涨金价的交易商有理由保持谨慎。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d992bbc01adb94feb4df0e66278c87\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105338908","content_text":"5月24日，美股三大股指期货走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.7%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.73%；标普500指数期货跌1.13%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前多数走低，哔哩哔哩、蔚来、理想汽车、小鹏汽车、贝壳跌超3%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东跌超2%。网易盘前涨超4%，Q1营收236亿元同比增长14.8%。瑞幸咖啡盘前涨超5%，公布2022年第一季度财报：总净收入24亿元，同比增89.5%。美股明星科技股盘前走低，谷歌A跌超4%，特斯拉跌超3%，奈飞跌近2%，苹果跌超1%。美股社交媒体股盘前集体走低，Snap超31%，公司警告称二季度将无法实现收入和调整后的收益目标，并计划放缓招聘。Pinterest跌超14%，Meta Platforms跌超7%，Twitter跌超3%。Zoom盘前涨超2%，Q1营收同比增长12%至10.7亿美元，公司上调2023财年调整后EPS业绩展望。巴克莱银行盘前涨超2%，将启动股票回购计划，以最高10亿英镑的价格购买公司每股25便士的普通股。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%，英国富时100跌0.18%，法国CAC40跌0.84%。原油原油期货小幅拉升，截止发稿，WTI原油涨0.51%，报110.85美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.58%，报114.08美元/桶。达沃斯经济论坛开幕，全球经济放缓的担忧升温，这给油价压力。不过，美国夏季原油需求增加，俄乌冲突等因素始终支持油价。油价依然陷入到区间震荡之中。黄金黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.51%，报1857.3美元/盎司。鉴于美联储在6月和7月会议上各加息至少50个基点的预期已经被消化，投资者继续解除对美元进一步上涨的押注，有利于以美元计价的黄金。长期前景仍较为乐观，积极看涨金价的交易商有理由保持谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026550251,"gmtCreate":1653403826473,"gmtModify":1676535275718,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026550251","repostId":"1194936946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194936946","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653388261,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194936946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 18:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉已经“破位”，下一站是540美元？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194936946","media":"巴伦周刊 ","summary":"今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500的17.15%和纳指的27.15%。2022年初，电动车巨头特斯拉(TSLA)的股价曾触及1200美元，在4月份达到近1150美元后开始一路下","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500的17.15%和纳指的27.15%。</p><p>2022年初，电动车巨头特斯拉(TSLA)的股价曾触及1200美元，在4月份达到近1150美元后开始一路下滑，最近几周跌势尤为显著。周一（5月23日），美股市场在一系列利好消息带动下反弹，特斯拉也出现1.66%的涨幅，收报674.9美元。</p><p>不过，今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500指数的17.15%和纳斯达克综合指数的27.15%。还有值得注意的一点是，现在特斯拉股价已经跌破了关键支撑位700美元，这一走势上的“破位”也应引起关注基本面投资者的注意。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635fb6f62345cccc6ca64b6e5803ef1c\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>多个因素拖累股价</b></p><p>过去几周，有关特斯拉的坏消息不断传来。受中国新一波疫情影响，特斯拉上海工厂在经历了暂停和复工后目前在提高产能方面仍面临困难。据媒体周一报道，该公司为提高产能而增加雇员的计划也被推迟。</p><p>此前看多特斯拉的Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)近日把特斯拉的目标价从1400美元下调至1000美元，主要原因就是上海工厂生产遇阻。据估计，特斯拉的出货量已从2月底约35万辆的峰值下滑至约27.5万辆。</p><p>Piper Sandler分析师亚历山大·波特(Alexander Potter)把特斯拉目标价从1260美元下调至1035美元，产能下降可能导致二季度业绩不及预期也是主要原因。特斯拉获得的平均目标价从大约1000美元下降了30美元左右，至970美元。</p><p>此外，最近上映的一部有关特斯拉Autopilot自动辅助驾驶系统的纪录片对于提升特斯拉的形象可以说是毫无帮助，这部纪录片给人留下的印象是，特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶系统并不像其他系统那么安全。</p><p>美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)近日还宣布，已对一起涉及特斯拉车辆的车祸展开特别调查，这起事故造成三人死亡，确认事故车辆为2022年产的特斯拉Model S。NHTSA正在调查30多起疑似使用Autopilot的特斯拉车辆卷入严重车祸的事件。NHTSA的记录还显示，其他一些特斯拉汽车碰撞事故也导致了人员死亡。</p><p>特斯拉的季度安全报告则显示，特斯拉是道路上最安全的车辆之一，并称其驾驶辅助功能需要驾驶员的持续监控和关注。特斯拉没有就上海工厂的产能问题或上述纪录片发表评论。</p><p>最近美股市场的抛售潮和马斯克收购Twitter的计划也给特斯拉股价带来压力，特斯拉的投资者担心马斯克会因为Twitter相关事务分心，或者为了融资出售大量特斯拉的股票。</p><p>最后就是通货膨胀带来的影响。富国银行(Wells Fargo)分析师科林·兰根(Colin Langan)预计锂等电池材料的价格将在未来几年持续上涨，并在5月中旬下调了特斯拉的目标价。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d725b5e03c472d7c00b7c626f0810603\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>技术面警报拉响，股价还有19%下跌空间？</b></p><p>目前特斯拉股价比50日移动均线低了28%，比200日移动均线低了27%。50日移动均线约为922美元，仍高于约913美元的200日移动均线。</p><p>在50日和200日移动均线接近之际，二者形成交叉是交易员关注的一个信号，50日移动均线降至200日移动均线下方将是一个看跌信号。如果特斯拉股价最近这样的走势再持续几个交易日的话，届时除了上述坏消息，特斯拉的投资者也将不得不关注这个看跌信号。</p><p>Fairlead Strategies董事总经理凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)告诉《巴伦周刊》，特斯拉“跌破1月份低点定义的支撑位后，股价在中期内下跌的趋势已经确立。”</p><p>1月份的低点约为792美元，特斯拉在5月中旬曾收于该价格下方。斯托克顿还说：“技术图上形成了‘双顶’形态，我们的长期指标显示，下跌趋势可能会持续一整个夏季。”这个“双顶”一个是今年年初特斯拉股价触及的1200美元，一个是4月份的近1150美元，然后股价开始下跌，这对交易员来说是一个看跌信号。</p><p>斯托克顿指出，特斯拉下一个支撑位在540美元区间内，这意味着还有19%的下跌空间。《巴伦周刊》认为，特斯拉股价是否会跌至这一水平取决于许多因素，包括上海工厂的产能问题、盈利以及大盘的表现等。从长期来看，虽然说基本面是决定一只股票走势的主要因素，但技术趋势图也可以告诉投资者很多关于基本面的信息，以及投资者情绪的变化。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉已经“破位”，下一站是540美元？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 18:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MDc5NTU0NQ==&mid=2247527732&idx=2&sn=d038e6d038e89557f243fa49e9bcc7ce&chksm=fcebde42cb9c5754c3b0612a7c6fc8e830e4dd8d0f392162e61c4d41830ce501c2d7f3dbd1f0#rd><strong>巴伦周刊 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500的17.15%和纳指的27.15%。2022年初，电动车巨头特斯拉(TSLA)的股价曾触及1200美元，在4月份达到近1150美元后开始一路下滑，最近几周跌势尤为显著。周一（5月23日），美股市场在一系列利好消息带动下反弹，特斯拉也出现1.66%的涨幅，收报674.9美元。不过，今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MDc5NTU0NQ==&mid=2247527732&idx=2&sn=d038e6d038e89557f243fa49e9bcc7ce&chksm=fcebde42cb9c5754c3b0612a7c6fc8e830e4dd8d0f392162e61c4d41830ce501c2d7f3dbd1f0#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d725b5e03c472d7c00b7c626f0810603","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3MDc5NTU0NQ==&mid=2247527732&idx=2&sn=d038e6d038e89557f243fa49e9bcc7ce&chksm=fcebde42cb9c5754c3b0612a7c6fc8e830e4dd8d0f392162e61c4d41830ce501c2d7f3dbd1f0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194936946","content_text":"今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500的17.15%和纳指的27.15%。2022年初，电动车巨头特斯拉(TSLA)的股价曾触及1200美元，在4月份达到近1150美元后开始一路下滑，最近几周跌势尤为显著。周一（5月23日），美股市场在一系列利好消息带动下反弹，特斯拉也出现1.66%的涨幅，收报674.9美元。不过，今年迄今特斯拉依然累计下跌43.75%，跌幅超过标普500指数的17.15%和纳斯达克综合指数的27.15%。还有值得注意的一点是，现在特斯拉股价已经跌破了关键支撑位700美元，这一走势上的“破位”也应引起关注基本面投资者的注意。多个因素拖累股价过去几周，有关特斯拉的坏消息不断传来。受中国新一波疫情影响，特斯拉上海工厂在经历了暂停和复工后目前在提高产能方面仍面临困难。据媒体周一报道，该公司为提高产能而增加雇员的计划也被推迟。此前看多特斯拉的Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)近日把特斯拉的目标价从1400美元下调至1000美元，主要原因就是上海工厂生产遇阻。据估计，特斯拉的出货量已从2月底约35万辆的峰值下滑至约27.5万辆。Piper Sandler分析师亚历山大·波特(Alexander Potter)把特斯拉目标价从1260美元下调至1035美元，产能下降可能导致二季度业绩不及预期也是主要原因。特斯拉获得的平均目标价从大约1000美元下降了30美元左右，至970美元。此外，最近上映的一部有关特斯拉Autopilot自动辅助驾驶系统的纪录片对于提升特斯拉的形象可以说是毫无帮助，这部纪录片给人留下的印象是，特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶系统并不像其他系统那么安全。美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)近日还宣布，已对一起涉及特斯拉车辆的车祸展开特别调查，这起事故造成三人死亡，确认事故车辆为2022年产的特斯拉Model S。NHTSA正在调查30多起疑似使用Autopilot的特斯拉车辆卷入严重车祸的事件。NHTSA的记录还显示，其他一些特斯拉汽车碰撞事故也导致了人员死亡。特斯拉的季度安全报告则显示，特斯拉是道路上最安全的车辆之一，并称其驾驶辅助功能需要驾驶员的持续监控和关注。特斯拉没有就上海工厂的产能问题或上述纪录片发表评论。最近美股市场的抛售潮和马斯克收购Twitter的计划也给特斯拉股价带来压力，特斯拉的投资者担心马斯克会因为Twitter相关事务分心，或者为了融资出售大量特斯拉的股票。最后就是通货膨胀带来的影响。富国银行(Wells Fargo)分析师科林·兰根(Colin Langan)预计锂等电池材料的价格将在未来几年持续上涨，并在5月中旬下调了特斯拉的目标价。技术面警报拉响，股价还有19%下跌空间？目前特斯拉股价比50日移动均线低了28%，比200日移动均线低了27%。50日移动均线约为922美元，仍高于约913美元的200日移动均线。在50日和200日移动均线接近之际，二者形成交叉是交易员关注的一个信号，50日移动均线降至200日移动均线下方将是一个看跌信号。如果特斯拉股价最近这样的走势再持续几个交易日的话，届时除了上述坏消息，特斯拉的投资者也将不得不关注这个看跌信号。Fairlead Strategies董事总经理凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)告诉《巴伦周刊》，特斯拉“跌破1月份低点定义的支撑位后，股价在中期内下跌的趋势已经确立。”1月份的低点约为792美元，特斯拉在5月中旬曾收于该价格下方。斯托克顿还说：“技术图上形成了‘双顶’形态，我们的长期指标显示，下跌趋势可能会持续一整个夏季。”这个“双顶”一个是今年年初特斯拉股价触及的1200美元，一个是4月份的近1150美元，然后股价开始下跌，这对交易员来说是一个看跌信号。斯托克顿指出，特斯拉下一个支撑位在540美元区间内，这意味着还有19%的下跌空间。《巴伦周刊》认为，特斯拉股价是否会跌至这一水平取决于许多因素，包括上海工厂的产能问题、盈利以及大盘的表现等。从长期来看，虽然说基本面是决定一只股票走势的主要因素，但技术趋势图也可以告诉投资者很多关于基本面的信息，以及投资者情绪的变化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021026751,"gmtCreate":1652977011773,"gmtModify":1676535200431,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSLA stock price decreasing&nbsp;","listText":"TSLA stock price decreasing&nbsp;","text":"TSLA stock price decreasing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021026751","repostId":"1135356620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135356620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652923615,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135356620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 09:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Says ESG Is a ‘Scam’ as S&P Drops TSLA Stock From ESG Index","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135356620","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla has been kicked off an important ESG index","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the environment can’t keep <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock on the <b>S&amp;P 500 ESG Index</b></li><li>Elon Musk did not respond well to the removal news</li><li>TSLA stock slipped today amid the decision and multiple analyst downgrades</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd49a35a8d14953f1a6a83984d69d872\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: franz12 / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock fell back into the red today after receiving some bad news: The company’s electric vehicle (EV) innovations are no longer enough to keep it on the S&amp;P 500 ESG Index. The news broke this morning, in part causing TSLA stock to close down nearly 7%.</p><p>This isn’t the only negative catalyst for Tesla today. But it’s certainly the one Elon Musk seems most concerned about.</p><p><b>TSLA Stock Cut From the S&amp;P 500 ESG Index</b></p><p>Per Refinitiv, the S&amp;P 500 ESG Index tracks the “performance of companies with superior ESG index ratings for environmental, social, and governance practices.” Apparently, though, that definition no longer applies to Tesla. Earlier today, the index deemed the company ineligible for inclusion “due to its low S&amp;P DJI ESG Score” which “fell in the bottom 25%” among industry peers.</p><p>In its statement, the index acknowledged Tesla’s sustainable energy mission. It then broke down the reasons for its decision, citing “a decline in criteria level scores related to Tesla’s (lack of) low carbon strategy” and business conduct codes. The statement continued:</p><blockquote>“While Tesla may be playing its part in taking fuel-powered cars off the road, it has fallen behind its peers when examined through a wider ESG lens.”</blockquote><p><b>Elon Musk Responds</b></p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk quickly reacted to this news, calling ESG a “scam.”</p><blockquote>.@SPGlobalRatingshas lost their integrity</blockquote><blockquote>— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)May 18, 2022</blockquote><p>Musk’s initial tweet is worth a closer look. For one, <b>Exxon Mobil</b> (NYSE:<b><u>XOM</u></b>) is still part of the index, which is odd given the company’shistory with frackingand other environmentally <i>unfriendly</i> practices. In addition to that fact, Musk is also likely frustrated that some of Tesla’s big tech peers — including <b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) and <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) —  still make the list.</p><p>Following his initial response, Elon Musk predicted that political attacks against him would escalate. The CEO then posted another meme about the decision.</p><blockquote>Despite Tesla doing more for the environment than any company ever!pic.twitter.com/ImxrhnRepj</blockquote><blockquote>— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)May 18, 2022</blockquote><p><b>The Road Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p>The good news for Tesla is that it can return to the index next year. As the post states, “the beauty of the annual rebalance is that they will once again have an opportunity to be reviewed for inclusion in years to come.” However, Elon Musk’s reaction to the decision may not help Tesla’s cause.</p><p>TSLA stock’s performance today may be due more to multiple analyst downgrades. However, it’s not good for Tesla to be dropped from a major index, either. Given Tesla’s status as a leader in sustainable innovation, it would behoove the company to reprioritize its ESG scores.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk Says ESG Is a ‘Scam’ as S&P Drops TSLA Stock From ESG Index</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Says ESG Is a ‘Scam’ as S&P Drops TSLA Stock From ESG Index\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 09:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/elon-musk-says-esg-is-a-scam-as-sp-drops-tsla-stock-from-esg-index/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the environment can’t keep Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock on the S&P 500 ESG IndexElon Musk did not respond well to the removal newsTSLA stock slipped today amid the decision and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/elon-musk-says-esg-is-a-scam-as-sp-drops-tsla-stock-from-esg-index/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/elon-musk-says-esg-is-a-scam-as-sp-drops-tsla-stock-from-esg-index/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135356620","content_text":"CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the environment can’t keep Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock on the S&P 500 ESG IndexElon Musk did not respond well to the removal newsTSLA stock slipped today amid the decision and multiple analyst downgradesSource: franz12 / Shutterstock.comTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock fell back into the red today after receiving some bad news: The company’s electric vehicle (EV) innovations are no longer enough to keep it on the S&P 500 ESG Index. The news broke this morning, in part causing TSLA stock to close down nearly 7%.This isn’t the only negative catalyst for Tesla today. But it’s certainly the one Elon Musk seems most concerned about.TSLA Stock Cut From the S&P 500 ESG IndexPer Refinitiv, the S&P 500 ESG Index tracks the “performance of companies with superior ESG index ratings for environmental, social, and governance practices.” Apparently, though, that definition no longer applies to Tesla. Earlier today, the index deemed the company ineligible for inclusion “due to its low S&P DJI ESG Score” which “fell in the bottom 25%” among industry peers.In its statement, the index acknowledged Tesla’s sustainable energy mission. It then broke down the reasons for its decision, citing “a decline in criteria level scores related to Tesla’s (lack of) low carbon strategy” and business conduct codes. The statement continued:“While Tesla may be playing its part in taking fuel-powered cars off the road, it has fallen behind its peers when examined through a wider ESG lens.”Elon Musk RespondsTesla CEO Elon Musk quickly reacted to this news, calling ESG a “scam.”.@SPGlobalRatingshas lost their integrity— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)May 18, 2022Musk’s initial tweet is worth a closer look. For one, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is still part of the index, which is odd given the company’shistory with frackingand other environmentally unfriendly practices. In addition to that fact, Musk is also likely frustrated that some of Tesla’s big tech peers — including Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) —  still make the list.Following his initial response, Elon Musk predicted that political attacks against him would escalate. The CEO then posted another meme about the decision.Despite Tesla doing more for the environment than any company ever!pic.twitter.com/ImxrhnRepj— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)May 18, 2022The Road Ahead for TeslaThe good news for Tesla is that it can return to the index next year. As the post states, “the beauty of the annual rebalance is that they will once again have an opportunity to be reviewed for inclusion in years to come.” However, Elon Musk’s reaction to the decision may not help Tesla’s cause.TSLA stock’s performance today may be due more to multiple analyst downgrades. However, it’s not good for Tesla to be dropped from a major index, either. Given Tesla’s status as a leader in sustainable innovation, it would behoove the company to reprioritize its ESG scores.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021028916,"gmtCreate":1652976687335,"gmtModify":1676535200394,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021028916","repostId":"1182742214","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065251087,"gmtCreate":1652202335949,"gmtModify":1676535051383,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Terrible&nbsp;","listText":"Terrible&nbsp;","text":"Terrible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065251087","repostId":"2234766091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234766091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652183520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234766091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 19:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股重演互联网泡沫危机？抛售何时停止？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234766091","media":"智通财经网","summary":"市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。追踪Meme 股的Solact","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。</p><p>在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。</p><p>追踪Meme 股的Solactive Roundhill  Meme股票指数中的所有25只股票周一均下跌至少3%，其中，跌幅最大的是Palantir和Rivian，它们的股价在一天内下跌了20%以上。可以看到，估值过高的股票跌幅最大：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6132c4c95154b7fcaefde612a7f37fbf\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>智通财经APP了解到，木头姐旗下的旗舰基金ARK Innovation  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>同样惨遭重创。在疫情时期的前12个月，因为对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)等公司的成功押注，ARK的收益率较大盘高出300%。在周一的抛售之后，ARK过去五年相对于标普500指数的涨幅都被抹去了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14a21b4dbe4eb2eac04bfb3bafa93cb\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>此次的美股下跌让人想起2000年互联网泡沫危机，当时估值最高的股票大幅下挫，而大量此前不受重视的稳健公司成功地稳住了股价。本轮抛售是否意味着互联网泡沫危机重演?</p><p>互联网泡沫危机重演?</p><p>彭博专栏作家John  Authers指出，新冠疫情、俄乌冲突和全球高通胀为股市抛售提供了强劲的催化剂，这些因素在2000年是不存在的。但最近一轮抛售主要是由估值驱动的，看起来与2000年互联网泡沫危机很相似。</p><p>下图展示了标普500指数信息技术板块与标普500指数的市盈率之差:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a83f4a5ffc5d5edcd8c37377191a9f0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>相似之处显而易见。两种情况的极端阶段都始于美联储意外被迫放松货币政策之时(1998年美国长期资本管理公司的崩溃和2000年的新冠疫情)。与此同时，从预期市盈率的角度来看，两种极端情况的相似度更高了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771c4490197ddce674670f800cabd1d6\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>最重要的是，最近的抛售潮中，过于昂贵的股票遭受的打击越大。下图显示了自2003年以来，全球最便宜的20%股票相对于最昂贵的20%股票的表现。相对于高估值股票，低估值股票的回报率最近大幅飙升(图表没有更新周一的走势)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d900e7e1d7b0ecb0c576fb998b0e6866\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>首席量化策略师Andrew  Lapthorne提供了过去一年美国和欧洲最昂贵和最便宜股票的表现图表，显示了这两种股票在抛售潮中的分化走势。可以看到，低估值股波动相对较小。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3800a77586502550fe348d8e0cefcd9\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在周一的下跌中，不同板块的走势分化。尽管Meme股和科技股大跌，标准普尔500必需消费品板块小幅上涨。73只标普500指数成分股逆势上涨，其中，拥有Parker、Sharpie等知名品牌的消费巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWL\">纽威</a>(NWL.US)涨7.92%。</p><p>除了估值外，市场也关注企业的盈利能力。罗素2000指数和标普600指数这两个最受关注的美国小型企业指数有一个重要的不同之处。罗素指数完全基于市值，它包括排名从1001到3000的公司。标普600指数的所有成分股都必须盈利。</p><p>当罗素2000指数领先时，这通常是市场投机情绪高涨的迹象。标普600指数领先则表明，投资者要保守得多。目前，罗素2000指数的表现远逊于标普600指数:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d478986a3462502cb15d78dda119d63\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>抛售何时停止？</p><p>彭博的Authers表示，毫无疑问，此次波动主要与估值有关。这就解释了为什么在过去几周公布的企业财报表现良好的情况下，股市仍大幅下挫。两个关键问题仍然存在:是什么原因造成的，何时停止?</p><p>多年来，Authers等看跌人士一直警告称，股票看起来过于昂贵，而且很容易受到债券收益率上升的影响。这些警告终于应验了。美联储估值模型(Fed  model)表明，股票的市盈率应该是债券收益率的函数。债券收益率越低，投资者购买股票的估值就越高。</p><p>在 1990  年代，这种关系似乎很牢固。在本世纪，这样的情况更少。但令人惊讶的是，过去几个月收益率的上升几乎与市盈率的暴跌完美重叠。正是通胀冲击，加上人们越来越意识到美联储将不得不加息，促使投资者对股票的高估值持怀疑态度:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8308d07887313d8c596c32c2c8efb1ef\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Authers表示，<b>利率的不确定性至少和利率的上升一样，是造成抛售的原因。</b>关于美联储加息幅度的讨论越来越多，这使得确定股票的估值倍数变得困难。这种不确定性本应在年底前消失，但不幸的是，很难看到它在年底前得到解决。</p><p>耶鲁大学罗伯特·席勒(Robert  Shiller)推崇的股票长期指标——周期调整市盈率(CAPE)表明，如果利率继续上升，股价可能会进一步下跌。从下图中可以看到，最近的抛售明显降低了CAPE，但仍仅略低于1929年大崩盘前夕的水平:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786dcc8f652dbb991b2d1f8e9c78bcc2\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CAPE再也没有回到大崩盘后的低点，而且没有理由认为这次会这样。但是，如果利率继续上升，本就昂贵的股票更容易下跌。</p><p>Authers认为，<b>如果美国通胀相对较快地得到控制，而且也没有出现滞胀，那么就更容易证明股票的高估值是合理的。如果经济状况恶化，出现负增长和更高的通胀，那么市场还会进一步下跌。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股重演互联网泡沫危机？抛售何时停止？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股重演互联网泡沫危机？抛售何时停止？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-10 19:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/721222.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。追踪Meme 股的Solactive Roundhill  Meme股票指数中的所有25只股票周一均下跌至少3%，其中，跌幅最大的是Palantir和Rivian，它们的股价在一天内下跌了20%以上。可以看到，估值过高的股票跌幅...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/721222.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c850f815bf6878182aa7c5d4b0147f56","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/721222.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2234766091","content_text":"市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。追踪Meme 股的Solactive Roundhill  Meme股票指数中的所有25只股票周一均下跌至少3%，其中，跌幅最大的是Palantir和Rivian，它们的股价在一天内下跌了20%以上。可以看到，估值过高的股票跌幅最大：智通财经APP了解到，木头姐旗下的旗舰基金ARK Innovation  Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF同样惨遭重创。在疫情时期的前12个月，因为对特斯拉(TSLA.US)等公司的成功押注，ARK的收益率较大盘高出300%。在周一的抛售之后，ARK过去五年相对于标普500指数的涨幅都被抹去了。此次的美股下跌让人想起2000年互联网泡沫危机，当时估值最高的股票大幅下挫，而大量此前不受重视的稳健公司成功地稳住了股价。本轮抛售是否意味着互联网泡沫危机重演?互联网泡沫危机重演?彭博专栏作家John  Authers指出，新冠疫情、俄乌冲突和全球高通胀为股市抛售提供了强劲的催化剂，这些因素在2000年是不存在的。但最近一轮抛售主要是由估值驱动的，看起来与2000年互联网泡沫危机很相似。下图展示了标普500指数信息技术板块与标普500指数的市盈率之差:相似之处显而易见。两种情况的极端阶段都始于美联储意外被迫放松货币政策之时(1998年美国长期资本管理公司的崩溃和2000年的新冠疫情)。与此同时，从预期市盈率的角度来看，两种极端情况的相似度更高了。最重要的是，最近的抛售潮中，过于昂贵的股票遭受的打击越大。下图显示了自2003年以来，全球最便宜的20%股票相对于最昂贵的20%股票的表现。相对于高估值股票，低估值股票的回报率最近大幅飙升(图表没有更新周一的走势)。法国兴业银行首席量化策略师Andrew  Lapthorne提供了过去一年美国和欧洲最昂贵和最便宜股票的表现图表，显示了这两种股票在抛售潮中的分化走势。可以看到，低估值股波动相对较小。在周一的下跌中，不同板块的走势分化。尽管Meme股和科技股大跌，标准普尔500必需消费品板块小幅上涨。73只标普500指数成分股逆势上涨，其中，拥有Parker、Sharpie等知名品牌的消费巨头纽威(NWL.US)涨7.92%。除了估值外，市场也关注企业的盈利能力。罗素2000指数和标普600指数这两个最受关注的美国小型企业指数有一个重要的不同之处。罗素指数完全基于市值，它包括排名从1001到3000的公司。标普600指数的所有成分股都必须盈利。当罗素2000指数领先时，这通常是市场投机情绪高涨的迹象。标普600指数领先则表明，投资者要保守得多。目前，罗素2000指数的表现远逊于标普600指数:抛售何时停止？彭博的Authers表示，毫无疑问，此次波动主要与估值有关。这就解释了为什么在过去几周公布的企业财报表现良好的情况下，股市仍大幅下挫。两个关键问题仍然存在:是什么原因造成的，何时停止?多年来，Authers等看跌人士一直警告称，股票看起来过于昂贵，而且很容易受到债券收益率上升的影响。这些警告终于应验了。美联储估值模型(Fed  model)表明，股票的市盈率应该是债券收益率的函数。债券收益率越低，投资者购买股票的估值就越高。在 1990  年代，这种关系似乎很牢固。在本世纪，这样的情况更少。但令人惊讶的是，过去几个月收益率的上升几乎与市盈率的暴跌完美重叠。正是通胀冲击，加上人们越来越意识到美联储将不得不加息，促使投资者对股票的高估值持怀疑态度:Authers表示，利率的不确定性至少和利率的上升一样，是造成抛售的原因。关于美联储加息幅度的讨论越来越多，这使得确定股票的估值倍数变得困难。这种不确定性本应在年底前消失，但不幸的是，很难看到它在年底前得到解决。耶鲁大学罗伯特·席勒(Robert  Shiller)推崇的股票长期指标——周期调整市盈率(CAPE)表明，如果利率继续上升，股价可能会进一步下跌。从下图中可以看到，最近的抛售明显降低了CAPE，但仍仅略低于1929年大崩盘前夕的水平:CAPE再也没有回到大崩盘后的低点，而且没有理由认为这次会这样。但是，如果利率继续上升，本就昂贵的股票更容易下跌。Authers认为，如果美国通胀相对较快地得到控制，而且也没有出现滞胀，那么就更容易证明股票的高估值是合理的。如果经济状况恶化，出现负增长和更高的通胀，那么市场还会进一步下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":91,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065859253,"gmtCreate":1652175000072,"gmtModify":1676535045873,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's wrong?","listText":"What's wrong?","text":"What's wrong?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065859253","repostId":"1194150041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194150041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652174263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194150041?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 17:17","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉再度召回车辆，共计129,960辆","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194150041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉再度召回车辆，共计129,960辆</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉再度召回车辆，共计129,960辆\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-10 17:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b3bf71a5b88b7052f7881987e62de7","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194150041","content_text":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062728915,"gmtCreate":1652109511637,"gmtModify":1676535031492,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMG","listText":"OMG","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062728915","repostId":"1104099384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104099384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652102839,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104099384?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104099384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter result","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104099384","content_text":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.For the March quarter, Palantir  posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068237608,"gmtCreate":1651784783004,"gmtModify":1676534966786,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068237608","repostId":"1146951116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146951116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651761650,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146951116?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大空头警告：准备迎接一生中最大的熊市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146951116","media":"金十数据","summary":"投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……</blockquote><p>曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。</p><p>尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来最严重的市场恐慌，但David Wright执掌的基金Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund几乎没有亏损。即使在2020年疫情期间，该基金的损失也相对较小。Wright表示，在20年前互联网泡沫破灭时，他管理的另一支私人基金也没有损失一分钱。</p><p>但现年78岁的Wright在接受采访时表示，上述这些时期都无法与未来相比。已经在2022年大幅下跌的股票和债券，未来还会进一步下跌：</p><blockquote>“我相信我们正处于我有生以来最大的熊市中。这场熊市才刚开局不久，接下来还会一波大跌。”</blockquote><p>支撑Wright看跌的不是美联储大幅加息、高通胀或俄乌冲突，而是在过去几年中，投资者的狂热推动了从meme股票到加密货币的一系列飙升。根据美联储汇编的数据，股市上涨帮助美国家庭财富激增至创纪录的150万亿美元，达到了美国经济规模的六倍多。Wright说：</p><blockquote>“世界上没有其他国家像美国一样，将如此多的净财富重仓在股票上。我们正处于自满情绪的高峰期。”</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f337272202192681e2bfe668a6743007\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wright没有具体说明他认为未来持有债券和股票会有多大的损失，但他指出，1970年代和1980年代的大幅回落直到市场的市盈率降至10%以下才结束。目前，标准普尔500指数的12月后市盈率已从2021年3月的32降至21，仍高于过去20年19的平均水平。</p><p>如今，越来越多的空头提出类似主张。在俄乌冲突、美联储大幅加息、通胀率飙升之下，有很多问题值得担忧：标普500指数今年已经下跌了12%，而纳指在从11月的峰值下跌超过20%后陷入技术性熊市；主要债券基准指数下跌超过10%。</p><p>而这只Sierra基金截至4月底持有的美国股票不到3%。该基金的一半以上是现金。固定评级债券仅占其持股的1%，而大宗商品则占9%以上。投资组合的其余部分分布在包括浮动利率债券、外国股票和主要有限合伙企业在内的资产中。</p><p>在这样的资产配置下，在2022年，该基金下跌了2.3%，超过了91%的同行。</p><p>该基金使用计算机模型为其持股设置追踪止损。一旦价格跌至这些预设水平，基金就会清算所持资产，并转向现金或其他呈上涨趋势的资产。虽然这种保守的做法有助于控制市场低迷时，持有股票和债券的损失，但当市场直线上涨时，它也会损害回报率。</p><p>自2008年危机以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。过去五年，该基金的年回报率为2.4%，而同行的平均回报率为5%。而同期，由60%股票和40%债券组成的投资组合每年的回报率为9%。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大空头警告：准备迎接一生中最大的熊市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-05 22:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93627><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来最严重的市场恐慌，但David Wright执掌的基金Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund几乎没有亏损。即使在2020年疫情期间，该基金的损失也相对较小。Wright表示，在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93627\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93627","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146951116","content_text":"投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来最严重的市场恐慌，但David Wright执掌的基金Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund几乎没有亏损。即使在2020年疫情期间，该基金的损失也相对较小。Wright表示，在20年前互联网泡沫破灭时，他管理的另一支私人基金也没有损失一分钱。但现年78岁的Wright在接受采访时表示，上述这些时期都无法与未来相比。已经在2022年大幅下跌的股票和债券，未来还会进一步下跌：“我相信我们正处于我有生以来最大的熊市中。这场熊市才刚开局不久，接下来还会一波大跌。”支撑Wright看跌的不是美联储大幅加息、高通胀或俄乌冲突，而是在过去几年中，投资者的狂热推动了从meme股票到加密货币的一系列飙升。根据美联储汇编的数据，股市上涨帮助美国家庭财富激增至创纪录的150万亿美元，达到了美国经济规模的六倍多。Wright说：“世界上没有其他国家像美国一样，将如此多的净财富重仓在股票上。我们正处于自满情绪的高峰期。”Wright没有具体说明他认为未来持有债券和股票会有多大的损失，但他指出，1970年代和1980年代的大幅回落直到市场的市盈率降至10%以下才结束。目前，标准普尔500指数的12月后市盈率已从2021年3月的32降至21，仍高于过去20年19的平均水平。如今，越来越多的空头提出类似主张。在俄乌冲突、美联储大幅加息、通胀率飙升之下，有很多问题值得担忧：标普500指数今年已经下跌了12%，而纳指在从11月的峰值下跌超过20%后陷入技术性熊市；主要债券基准指数下跌超过10%。而这只Sierra基金截至4月底持有的美国股票不到3%。该基金的一半以上是现金。固定评级债券仅占其持股的1%，而大宗商品则占9%以上。投资组合的其余部分分布在包括浮动利率债券、外国股票和主要有限合伙企业在内的资产中。在这样的资产配置下，在2022年，该基金下跌了2.3%，超过了91%的同行。该基金使用计算机模型为其持股设置追踪止损。一旦价格跌至这些预设水平，基金就会清算所持资产，并转向现金或其他呈上涨趋势的资产。虽然这种保守的做法有助于控制市场低迷时，持有股票和债券的损失，但当市场直线上涨时，它也会损害回报率。自2008年危机以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。过去五年，该基金的年回报率为2.4%，而同行的平均回报率为5%。而同期，由60%股票和40%债券组成的投资组合每年的回报率为9%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063119898,"gmtCreate":1651428682175,"gmtModify":1676534904375,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","listText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","text":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063119898","repostId":"1117500727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060591634,"gmtCreate":1651160829876,"gmtModify":1676534861784,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","listText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","text":"Get to know better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060591634","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116937204","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651126440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116937204?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 14:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"一文读懂股票回购：对股价影响有多大？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116937204","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。</blockquote><p><b>核心结论</b></p><p>股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段，特别是最近十年里，美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。</p><p>本文借鉴美股市场的经验，对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理，主要内容分为五个部分：</p><blockquote>第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念，包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因；</blockquote><blockquote>第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题，涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况；</blockquote><blockquote>第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑，一是直接增加公司股票的需求，二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标，此外，从美股的表现来看，股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分，回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著；</blockquote><blockquote>第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险，主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险；</blockquote><blockquote>第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。</blockquote><p>风险提示：回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动</p><p><b>报告正文</b></p><p><b>1，股票回购的基本概念介绍</b></p><p><b>1.1 什么是股票回购？</b></p><p>股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为，这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量，从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。</p><p>企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个：一是内部资金，包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源，以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金；二是外部资金，通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。</p><p>股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论，同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑，很少有公司进行股票回购，直至20世纪80年代，股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后，目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段，被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值，或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。</p><p><b>1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式</b></p><p>根据回购价格确定方式的不同，股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。</p><p>公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式，通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活，上市公司能够根据自身情况，自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素，而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。</p><p>另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种，一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票，上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式，但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购，此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性，因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中，上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量，随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量，最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购，直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。</p><p>与公开市场回购和要约回购相比，协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下，上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议，按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由，而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。</p><p>可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式，实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利，而且该权利一旦形成，就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权，不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利，以满足各类股东的不同诉求。</p><p><b>1.3 为什么要进行股票回购？</b></p><p>股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看，不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本，使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税，并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说，他们可以卖出股票获得流动性，此外与直接派发现金股息相比，由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低，通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少，在其他条件不变的情况下，企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话，我们也可以归为以下四个类别，一是财务动因，二是信号传递诉求，三是减少委托代理风险，四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。</p><p><b>上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关，上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。</b>具体来看，股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面：</p><p><b>第一，提升公司每股盈利。</b>由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量，因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少，将直接带来EPS的上升，这或许也将提高公司股价。</p><p><b>第二，实现股利避税，增加上市公司的股东财富。</b>由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率，通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国，个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额，实际税负为20%，但资本利得暂免征收所得税。</p><p><b>第三，优化公司资本结构，通过税盾效应提高公司价值。</b>不论以何种方式进行股票回购，都将降低公司的所有者权益，而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务，从而提高公司的财务杠杆率，产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说，这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构，还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。</p><p><b>第四，股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。</b>上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式，但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期，这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的，上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等，相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。</p><p><b>股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设，上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号，因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号，对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。</b></p><p><b>股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。</b>由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离，而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致，可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失，进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况，公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费，从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下，公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东，既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本，减少委托代理风险。</p><p><b>通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。</b>上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起，恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购，上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少，但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。</p><p><b>2，股票回购的财务处理问题</b></p><p><b>2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别</b></p><p>对于上市公司来说，在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销，也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。</p><p>被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，由公司自己持有，并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票，“库存股”没有投票权，也不具备分红的权利，甚至在公司破产后也不能变现，因此，“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。</p><p><b>所以在股票回购完成后，不论有没有注销所回购的股票，都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标，因为即使作为“库存股”保留，这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。</b>从这个角度来看，对公司来说，注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。</p><p><b>但在多数情况下，企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。</b>我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况，其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”，另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”，主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。</b></p><p>一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性，降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”；与配股或者增发新股相比，出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低，不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用，并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。</p><p>二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一，因此对于美股上市公司来说，保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利，避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。</p><p>三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性；此外，回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购，一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加，另一方面，“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量，为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。</p><p>四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时，企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动，稳定股价，避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。</p><p><b>2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负？</b></p><p>股票回购能够带来的好处中，非常重要的一条是，回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE，这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本，分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下，部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份，造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。</p><p>那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢？<b>这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异，二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映，所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时，主要参考的是股票的市场价值，因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项，又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目，只要回购股票成本的溢价过大，就会可能导致留存收益科目转负，甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。</b></p><p>以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年（从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日）年度报告中，企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元，但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元，这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看，2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降，</b>2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额，但到了2019财年末，留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元，这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负，此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。</b>以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例，在2019财年期内，星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购，在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股，总股本减少了10万美元，资本公积减少了6.1亿美元，企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。</p><p>从所有者权益变动情况来看，2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响，会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元，即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红，星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下，星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加，反而大幅减少，甚至出现了大额负值，最终使得净资产小于0。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理，我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年，麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0；此后，麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票，导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末（2019年12月31日），麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元，同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元，因此，麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元，降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升，但仍然维持负值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从股东权益的细分项来看，2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。</b>影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升，股本科目维持不变，仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元（这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元），并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升，但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加，因此股东权益整体小幅回升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看，2019财年，麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票，总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元；同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划，转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此，截至2019财年末，麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股，累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元，并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3，股票回购有利于推动股价上涨</b></p><p><b>3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑</b></p><p><b>回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个，一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价，这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。</b></p><p><b>事实上，自2008年金融危机以来，上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。</b>根据美联储统计的数据，2009年至2021年期间，权益市场的主要参与者中，ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票，美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元，而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升，仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份，并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型，公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标，因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股，每股价值10元，总市值为2000亿元；本次A公司将回购20%的股份，回购后还有160亿份股流通在外，由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元，因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元，即与回购前相比，股价上升了25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。</b></p><p>由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化，回购前后净利润均为500亿元，因此在回购后，A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元，提升幅度为25%。</p><p>从股市整体来看也是如此，历史数据显示，标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看，2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段，2000年至2007年，指数EPS缓慢提升，公司回购的规模也在不断提升，指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期，EPS出现了大幅下降，公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复，2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升，2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标，在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例，其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的，2013年是个转折点，然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速，苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元，2021财年是947亿美元，净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场，完全看不出是一个高科技公司，更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购，苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年，苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元，几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE，在更为夸张的情况下，甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司，这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的，所以净利润（分子）是负的。而美股市场中，有不少公司，是因为回购多了，把净资产（分母）弄成了负的了。这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况，可以开看到，在2014年以前，公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购，2015年ROE到了63%，2016年以后公司的股本为负，使得ROE都是负的了。</p><p>净资产为负，这在传统意义的教科书上，意味着企业资不抵债，是一个濒临破产的信号，但在当前的美股市场中，很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率</b></p><p><b>股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动，市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响，所以从长期投资的角度来看，股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响，其中，股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位，在美国的股票市场，股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此，股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响，我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内，即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机，投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报，而其中，股利收益占据了非常重要的地位，这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整，将样本股分红计入了指数收益，调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍，而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl等人（The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal）对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究，研究发现，包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内，股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分，<b>特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后，回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。</b>1871年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率（剔除通胀后）约为7%，其中，股息收益率为4.5%，如果考虑公司回购带来的收益，总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%，占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立，1901年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率为6.58%，其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%，加上企业回购部分，总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%；1970年至2014年期间，美股产生的股息收益为3.03%，将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%，同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化</b></p><p>虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨，但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是，股票回购不会影响市盈率，但是会提高市净率，所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后，我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。</p><p>之所以出现这种差异，主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润，但是会导致权益减少，这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份，回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元，在公司总市值维持不变的情况下，市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍，而由于公司净利润未受到影响，市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>即使从整个市场角度来看，市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化，从走势来看，随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升，标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大，从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ，标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍，PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在股票回购下，公司股价出现大幅提升，但市盈率却并未受到影响，所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍，在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数，远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升，但事实上，对于公司价值来说，通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值，更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因，如果我们从市净率来看，当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍，已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。</p><p><b>4，股票回购的潜在风险</b></p><p><b>4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降</b></p><p><b>美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市，但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。</b>从2010年开始，随着指数价格的持续上涨，标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降，2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿，已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是，上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少，这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例，由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模，当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股，相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>当然，被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因，而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑，进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。</b>上市公司回购股票带来股价上升，由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势，投资者纷纷买入被动型基金，增加的资金流入指数成分股，叠加上市公司持续回购股票，进一步推动股指上涨，资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续，所以我们看到，2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。</p><p><b>而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下，指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转，被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转，对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件，大概率将带来非常严重的后果。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致</b></p><p>回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种，最近几年的变化在于，“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐，这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。</p><p>很多上市公司通过大量回购股份，使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上，形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子，公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%，2018年最高到了119%，近几年仍然超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>星巴克公司是另一个例子，2017年时资产负债率还只有62%，2019年最高到了132%，2021年仍有117%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱，财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例，资产负债率最高的50家公司，资产负债率都超过了90%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标，也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升，也势必影响企业的信用评级。</p><p>我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示，标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级，有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外，值得注意的是，当前投资级主体公司中，绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级，即Baa级，这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下，大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司，可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。</b>穆迪分类评级下，这50家公司中，投机级企业数量占比为23.3%，标普评级分类下为36.2%，均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样，在投资级主体公司中，Baa（穆迪投资级最低评级）或者BBB（标普投资级最低评级）占据了绝大的比例。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级，主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3，促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为，麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现，这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月，由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额，穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。</p><p>此外，2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级，麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级，同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级，并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。</p><p>星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月，穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级，下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元，返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化，因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月，穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级，下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后，同样下调企业评级，星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>当然，债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件，但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患，特别是在美联储加息周期中，高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。</b></p><p><b>5，美股回购对A股的经验借鉴</b></p><p>和美股市场相比，当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日，2021财年，美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币，而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元，不足美股的2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不过从趋势上来看，2018年股票回购新规发布后，A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升，回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年，A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购，回购金额累计25亿元；2021年全年，A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家，全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。</p><p>我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现，发现1）低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显；2）公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关；3）公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。</p><p>因此不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面，我们认为，随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购，公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面，今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮，截至4月15日，上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元，年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家，越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>（本报告中所有涉及的个股信息，仅为公开信息汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级）</p></body></html>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文读懂股票回购：对股价影响有多大？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文读懂股票回购：对股价影响有多大？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-28 14:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q><strong>追寻价值之路</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段，特别是最近十年里，美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验，对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理，主要内容分为五个部分：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116937204","content_text":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段，特别是最近十年里，美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验，对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理，主要内容分为五个部分：第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念，包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因；第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题，涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况；第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑，一是直接增加公司股票的需求，二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标，此外，从美股的表现来看，股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分，回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著；第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险，主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险；第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。风险提示：回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动报告正文1，股票回购的基本概念介绍1.1 什么是股票回购？股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为，这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量，从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个：一是内部资金，包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源，以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金；二是外部资金，通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论，同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑，很少有公司进行股票回购，直至20世纪80年代，股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后，目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段，被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值，或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式根据回购价格确定方式的不同，股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式，通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活，上市公司能够根据自身情况，自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素，而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种，一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票，上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式，但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购，此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性，因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中，上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量，随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量，最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购，直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。与公开市场回购和要约回购相比，协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下，上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议，按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由，而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式，实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利，而且该权利一旦形成，就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权，不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利，以满足各类股东的不同诉求。1.3 为什么要进行股票回购？股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看，不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本，使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税，并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说，他们可以卖出股票获得流动性，此外与直接派发现金股息相比，由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低，通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少，在其他条件不变的情况下，企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话，我们也可以归为以下四个类别，一是财务动因，二是信号传递诉求，三是减少委托代理风险，四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关，上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。具体来看，股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面：第一，提升公司每股盈利。由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量，因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少，将直接带来EPS的上升，这或许也将提高公司股价。第二，实现股利避税，增加上市公司的股东财富。由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率，通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国，个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额，实际税负为20%，但资本利得暂免征收所得税。第三，优化公司资本结构，通过税盾效应提高公司价值。不论以何种方式进行股票回购，都将降低公司的所有者权益，而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务，从而提高公司的财务杠杆率，产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说，这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构，还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。第四，股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式，但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期，这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的，上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等，相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设，上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号，因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号，对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离，而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致，可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失，进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况，公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费，从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下，公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东，既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本，减少委托代理风险。通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起，恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购，上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少，但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。2，股票回购的财务处理问题2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别对于上市公司来说，在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销，也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，由公司自己持有，并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票，“库存股”没有投票权，也不具备分红的权利，甚至在公司破产后也不能变现，因此，“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。所以在股票回购完成后，不论有没有注销所回购的股票，都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标，因为即使作为“库存股”保留，这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。从这个角度来看，对公司来说，注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。但在多数情况下，企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况，其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”，另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”，主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性，降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”；与配股或者增发新股相比，出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低，不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用，并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一，因此对于美股上市公司来说，保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利，避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性；此外，回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购，一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加，另一方面，“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量，为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时，企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动，稳定股价，避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负？股票回购能够带来的好处中，非常重要的一条是，回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE，这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本，分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下，部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份，造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢？这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异，二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映，所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时，主要参考的是股票的市场价值，因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项，又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目，只要回购股票成本的溢价过大，就会可能导致留存收益科目转负，甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年（从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日）年度报告中，企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元，但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元，这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看，2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降，2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额，但到了2019财年末，留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元，这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负，此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例，在2019财年期内，星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购，在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股，总股本减少了10万美元，资本公积减少了6.1亿美元，企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。从所有者权益变动情况来看，2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响，会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元，即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红，星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下，星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加，反而大幅减少，甚至出现了大额负值，最终使得净资产小于0。对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理，我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年，麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0；此后，麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票，导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末（2019年12月31日），麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元，同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元，因此，麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元，降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升，但仍然维持负值。从股东权益的细分项来看，2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升，股本科目维持不变，仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元（这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元），并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升，但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加，因此股东权益整体小幅回升。根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看，2019财年，麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票，总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元；同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划，转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此，截至2019财年末，麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股，累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元，并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。3，股票回购有利于推动股价上涨3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个，一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价，这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。事实上，自2008年金融危机以来，上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。根据美联储统计的数据，2009年至2021年期间，权益市场的主要参与者中，ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票，美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元，而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升，仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份，并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型，公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标，因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股，每股价值10元，总市值为2000亿元；本次A公司将回购20%的股份，回购后还有160亿份股流通在外，由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元，因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元，即与回购前相比，股价上升了25%。回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化，回购前后净利润均为500亿元，因此在回购后，A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元，提升幅度为25%。从股市整体来看也是如此，历史数据显示，标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看，2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段，2000年至2007年，指数EPS缓慢提升，公司回购的规模也在不断提升，指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期，EPS出现了大幅下降，公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复，2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升，2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标，在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例，其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的，2013年是个转折点，然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速，苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元，2021财年是947亿美元，净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场，完全看不出是一个高科技公司，更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购，苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年，苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元，几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE，在更为夸张的情况下，甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司，这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的，所以净利润（分子）是负的。而美股市场中，有不少公司，是因为回购多了，把净资产（分母）弄成了负的了。这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况，可以开看到，在2014年以前，公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购，2015年ROE到了63%，2016年以后公司的股本为负，使得ROE都是负的了。净资产为负，这在传统意义的教科书上，意味着企业资不抵债，是一个濒临破产的信号，但在当前的美股市场中，很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动，市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响，所以从长期投资的角度来看，股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响，其中，股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位，在美国的股票市场，股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此，股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响，我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内，即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机，投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报，而其中，股利收益占据了非常重要的地位，这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整，将样本股分红计入了指数收益，调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍，而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。Philip U. Straehl等人（The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal）对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究，研究发现，包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内，股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分，特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后，回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。1871年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率（剔除通胀后）约为7%，其中，股息收益率为4.5%，如果考虑公司回购带来的收益，总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%，占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立，1901年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率为6.58%，其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%，加上企业回购部分，总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%；1970年至2014年期间，美股产生的股息收益为3.03%，将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%，同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨，但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是，股票回购不会影响市盈率，但是会提高市净率，所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后，我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。之所以出现这种差异，主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润，但是会导致权益减少，这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份，回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元，在公司总市值维持不变的情况下，市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍，而由于公司净利润未受到影响，市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。即使从整个市场角度来看，市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化，从走势来看，随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升，标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大，从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ，标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍，PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。在股票回购下，公司股价出现大幅提升，但市盈率却并未受到影响，所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍，在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数，远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升，但事实上，对于公司价值来说，通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值，更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因，如果我们从市净率来看，当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍，已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。4，股票回购的潜在风险4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市，但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。从2010年开始，随着指数价格的持续上涨，标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降，2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿，已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是，上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少，这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例，由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模，当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股，相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。当然，被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因，而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑，进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。上市公司回购股票带来股价上升，由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势，投资者纷纷买入被动型基金，增加的资金流入指数成分股，叠加上市公司持续回购股票，进一步推动股指上涨，资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续，所以我们看到，2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下，指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转，被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转，对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件，大概率将带来非常严重的后果。4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种，最近几年的变化在于，“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐，这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。很多上市公司通过大量回购股份，使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上，形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子，公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%，2018年最高到了119%，近几年仍然超过100%。星巴克公司是另一个例子，2017年时资产负债率还只有62%，2019年最高到了132%，2021年仍有117%。美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱，财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例，资产负债率最高的50家公司，资产负债率都超过了90%。财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标，也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升，也势必影响企业的信用评级。我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示，标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级，有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外，值得注意的是，当前投资级主体公司中，绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级，即Baa级，这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下，大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司，可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。穆迪分类评级下，这50家公司中，投机级企业数量占比为23.3%，标普评级分类下为36.2%，均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样，在投资级主体公司中，Baa（穆迪投资级最低评级）或者BBB（标普投资级最低评级）占据了绝大的比例。大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级，主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3，促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为，麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现，这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月，由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额，穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。此外，2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级，麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级，同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级，并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月，穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级，下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元，返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化，因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月，穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级，下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后，同样下调企业评级，星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。当然，债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件，但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患，特别是在美联储加息周期中，高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。5，美股回购对A股的经验借鉴和美股市场相比，当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日，2021财年，美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币，而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元，不足美股的2%。不过从趋势上来看，2018年股票回购新规发布后，A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升，回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年，A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购，回购金额累计25亿元；2021年全年，A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家，全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现，发现1）低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显；2）公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关；3）公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。因此不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面，我们认为，随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购，公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面，今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮，截至4月15日，上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元，年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家，越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。（本报告中所有涉及的个股信息，仅为公开信息汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9019831705,"gmtCreate":1648570367363,"gmtModify":1676534355805,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019831705","repostId":"1127392287","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127392287","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648556072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127392287?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127392287","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defie","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billion</li><li>Seen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cut</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f80d9929914ce9f818b327a539949945\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. flagship store in New York, U.S., on March 18.Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Apple Inc. shares are heading for their longest winning streak since 2003, when the iPhone hadn’t even launched andNokia Oyjwas still one of the top cellphone makers in the world.</p><p>Shares in the world’s largest company rose 0.2% premarket on Tuesday, extending gains to the 11th straight day -- a rare feat in its 41-year stock market history. During the streak, it has added $407 billion in market value, roughly the size of Walmart Inc.</p><p>Leading the charge in big technology stocks bouncing back after a dismal start to 2022, Apple has seen its earnings estimates being upgraded by 7.2% this year by analysts, much faster than other stocks in the Faang group. Shares have also managed to dodge a Nikkei report about production cuts, leaving the stock just 1% away from covering 2022 losses and 4.7% away from a $3 trillion market value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb13ef164329e3d13c595e46d3f0d2a2\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rally in big tech even as 10-year Treasury yields reached 2.5% has left investors scratching their heads. The Cupertino, California-based company is perhaps living up to its reputation as a relative haven in a turbulent time for tech.</p><p>For sales trader Jim Dixon at Mirabaud Securities, it’s the mom-and-pop investors behind the stunning rally. “Quite remarkable for a company trading on more than 28x forward earnings in a rising rates environments with supply chain issues/inflation,” he said.</p><p>Dixon also pointed to the implied volatility of the stock, which is at a discount to realized, commenting that  “investors are effectively saying that it is smooth sailing going forward.”</p><p>What’s more, on Sunday Apple bagged Best Picture Oscar for “CODA,” becoming the first streaming service to win Hollywood’s top award, beating out streaming pioneer Netflix Inc.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 20:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cutApple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127392287","content_text":"Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cutApple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. flagship store in New York, U.S., on March 18.Photographer: Gabby Jones/BloombergApple Inc. shares are heading for their longest winning streak since 2003, when the iPhone hadn’t even launched andNokia Oyjwas still one of the top cellphone makers in the world.Shares in the world’s largest company rose 0.2% premarket on Tuesday, extending gains to the 11th straight day -- a rare feat in its 41-year stock market history. During the streak, it has added $407 billion in market value, roughly the size of Walmart Inc.Leading the charge in big technology stocks bouncing back after a dismal start to 2022, Apple has seen its earnings estimates being upgraded by 7.2% this year by analysts, much faster than other stocks in the Faang group. Shares have also managed to dodge a Nikkei report about production cuts, leaving the stock just 1% away from covering 2022 losses and 4.7% away from a $3 trillion market value.The rally in big tech even as 10-year Treasury yields reached 2.5% has left investors scratching their heads. The Cupertino, California-based company is perhaps living up to its reputation as a relative haven in a turbulent time for tech.For sales trader Jim Dixon at Mirabaud Securities, it’s the mom-and-pop investors behind the stunning rally. “Quite remarkable for a company trading on more than 28x forward earnings in a rising rates environments with supply chain issues/inflation,” he said.Dixon also pointed to the implied volatility of the stock, which is at a discount to realized, commenting that  “investors are effectively saying that it is smooth sailing going forward.”What’s more, on Sunday Apple bagged Best Picture Oscar for “CODA,” becoming the first streaming service to win Hollywood’s top award, beating out streaming pioneer Netflix Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909849432,"gmtCreate":1658851681026,"gmtModify":1676536217738,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909849432","repostId":"1113527890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063119898,"gmtCreate":1651428682175,"gmtModify":1676534904375,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","listText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","text":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063119898","repostId":"1117500727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117500727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651464689,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117500727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 12:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117500727","media":"好看商业","summary":"他们的第二增长曲线都还有待提升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。</p><p>4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8909e2382ea4ec5bf245e96f5f03bb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。</p><p>4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。</p><p>这背后，科技巨头业绩拉垮是其中一个关键原因。</p><p>亚马逊Q1财报的财报堪称“全军覆灭”。这一季，其营收增速低于分析师预期，创下二十年来最低增速。其中线上销售、订阅服务和广告业务营收均不及分析师预期；云业务增速放缓。Q1经营利润也不及分析师预期。</p><p>Alphabet的营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，两项指标均创五个季度以来最低增速。</p><p>曾经的优等生变成了表现不及格的差生，市场的失望之情可想而知。</p><p>成立于1994年的亚马逊如今已经28岁，看起来却像迈入了中年。在这一点上，亚马逊并不是孤例。</p><p>在过去，人们常用FAAMG来代指美股五大科技巨头——脸书(Facebook)、苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)。如今，脸书已经更名为Meta，谷歌也变成了Alphabet。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1483419f393af8ca20d6e4a58044b5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>他们都成功穿越了互联网、移动互联网，最老的微软如今已经47岁，最年轻的Meta也已经年过18。</p><p>从今年Q1的财报来看，美国五大科技巨头纷纷表现出锐气不再、增长放缓的症状。</p><p>此外，他们都面临新的麻烦：员工的工会组织纷纷成立，队伍不好带了。工会要代表员工向与他们谈判，争取更好的薪资待遇和工作环境。这意味着，科技巨头们要付出更高的代价。</p><p>一场中年危机正在悄然来临。</p><p><b>存量时代，越来越涨不动了</b></p><p>美国五大科技巨头主要涉及三个大行业：消费、广告和企业服务；两个关键词：消费互联网和产业互联网。</p><p>总的来看，全球消费互联网都处于存量争夺时代，受全球消费疲软影响，电商零售行业、智能硬件和在线广告的大盘增速都在放缓。</p><p>这决定了其中的玩家们彼此竞争更加激烈，加上基数在变大，增速放缓是必然。</p><p>据eMarketer的报告，2022年全球电商销售额预计将首次突破5万亿美元，占整体零售总额的1/5；2025年，这个数字或将突破7万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b37edb3319d04caa656055697709779\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但从增速来看，将从2020年的26.4%降至2022年的12.2%，到2025年增速将降至个位数——9.2%。</p><p>亚马逊已经是全球最大的电商零售平台，2021年净销售额4698亿美元，其中商品销售额约达2418亿美元。2021年，亚马逊同比增长22%，已经跑赢全球电商大盘16.3%的增速。</p><p>今年Q1，亚马逊增速大跌至7.3%。这是亚马逊20年来的最低增速。去年同期，亚马逊实现了44%的增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9810bb65a7d29d3eb13694975e667d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>疫情之下的国际供应链变得低效而混乱，这严重影响了亚马逊的履约效率，导致其线上零售增长持续放缓，货运成本大幅提升。</p><p>随着跨境电商新秀SHEIN、Shopify等的崛起，他们在疯狂与亚马逊争食国际市场，再加上俄乌战争，亚马逊的国际业务受到明显影响，收入下滑。</p><p>在业务增长乏力的同时，亚马逊自身却处于新的投入期。2020年和2021年，公司在履约人力、场地等方面的投入翻倍，但2021年其零售业务的收入规模相比2019年只增长了65%。</p><p>新的投入要带来新的营收和利润释放仍需要时间，再加上疫情和国际宏观形势的持续影响，亚马逊短期内似乎很难在财务和股价上得到明显的改善。</p><p>全球消费疲软，智能硬件也未能独善其身。过去2年，全球智能手机出货量保持个位数增长或者负增长。今年Q1，全球智能手机市场出货量同比下滑7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c00685bf078563cce874759f2ebe73\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>相比之下，苹果的表现超越大盘。今年Q1，苹果营收973亿美元，同比增长8.6%，高于彭博一致预期的940亿美元。其中主要得益于iPhone和Mac的拉动，两者该季度同比增幅分别达5.5%和14.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a70cea4209e4e16359b331200154da\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但总的来看，苹果这一季营收增速仍在下滑通道，创6个季度以来最低纪录，也首次跌破两位数。</p><p>这背后，主要是苹果硬件业务增速下滑，本季度同比增长只有6.6%，为六个季度以来最低，包括iPad和智能穿戴设备本季度表现都低于市场预期。</p><p>2022年以来，全球通胀高企，智能手机、PC等电子终端需求疲软。多家机构下调智手机出货量预测。</p><p>Omdia最新数据显示，2022年智能手机显示屏需求较2021年实际出货量下降超过11%。</p><p>下一步，疫情导致的供应链紧张、缺芯以及俄乌冲突也将持续对苹果业绩带来影响。</p><p>苹果高管预计，受供应链短缺和中国工厂关闭等因素影响，二季度可能造成高达80亿美元的损失。</p><p>疫情反复导致消费、旅游等行业受损严重，他们保存实力的第一举措可能就是消减广告等开支。这抑制了全球在线广告的增长。</p><p>所以，尽管疫情期间人们花在网上冲浪的时间更长了，但是流量激增却没有带来广告收入的大幅上涨。</p><p>据GIR的调研，2021年全球互联网广告收入大约2983亿美元，预计2028年达到6385亿美元，2022—2028期间，年复合增长率12.4%。而2014—2018年的年复合增长率为15.7%。</p><p>Alphabet和Meta长期占据全球互联网广告第一和第二的位置，2021年二者的广告收入分别达到2094亿美元、1149亿美元。</p><p>尽管如此，随着在线广告大盘增长放缓，以及各自基数变大，Alphabet和Meta的广告业务增速放缓难以避免。</p><p>具体来看，2022年Q1，Alphabet营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，均创五个季度以来最低增速；广告业务环去年Q4比下滑10.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f03ec4cda3de4a87396a84a4fd0c7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>广告是Meta收入的基本盘，目前营收占比超96%。今年Q1，Meta广告收入270亿美元，同比增长6.1%，低于市场预期的273亿美元；环比下滑17%。而其广告业务增速下滑的态势已经持续了一年时间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c939b93ff7da586344e462193f221177\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了在线广告大盘增速放缓，竞争加剧也是导致Alphabet和Meta广告收入增长放缓的一大因素。</p><p>全球在线广告市场几乎是一个零和游戏。现在，这个市场的玩家在变多，2021年，亚马逊、苹果以及TikTok等新玩家加速广告业务变现，来势凶猛。</p><p>以TikTok为例，截至去年9月，其全球MAU已经突破10亿。总体年轻化的用户群体更有利于其商业化。</p><p>据Insider Intelligence预测，2022年TikTok的广告收入规模有望达到110亿美元， 同比增长近175%。除了广告，其直播电商业务也在快速变现。</p><p>Sensor tower的数据显示，2021年Q1 ，TikTok平台上消费者支出为8.21亿美元，是全球收入最高的非游戏类应用。</p><p>尽管Alphabet和Meta都推出了短视频流媒体等新产品以应对来自TikTok的竞争，但这个战斗很难在短期内结束。</p><p>相比之下，微软是美国五大科技巨头中表现最稳的一家。一年多来，其季度营收持续保持20%左右的同比增幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abc487a603fc8cc6baf5e6f1e99beac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这与微软的营收来源有关。微软目前三大块业务中，Office为主的“生产力与商业流程”业务和以Azure为核心的智慧云业务主要是TOB业务，目前合计营收贡献超过70%。</p><p>其中，Azure在Q1收入114.5亿美元，同比增长46%。它的营收规模首次超越Office全线业务，成为微软收入绝对值最高，增速最快的业务。</p><p>受益于云计算等新一代信息技术的发展，传统产业加速向数字化转型。据前瞻产业研究院的数据，2018-2020年全球数字经济规模持续上涨，2020年达到32.61万亿美元，占GDP比重为43.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4662c8734c3d1bb197bbbc4dbb7b3d18\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不过，最近三个季度，微软的营收增速也处于持续下滑中。微软面向企业端的办公SaaS产品Office 365进入云端化红利尾声，收入持续放缓。</p><p>而随着基数变大，Azure本季度的增速也触及历史最低水平。以Azure为核心的智慧云业务是微软下一步增长的关键。</p><p>所以，没有企业的时代，只有时代的企业。在瞬息万变的科技领域，各领风骚三五年，成败切换尤其残酷。这就是时势的力量。</p><p>面对大环境和大趋势，巨头们唯一不变的就是不断寻求变化实现增长，或者至少在此消彼长中立于不败之地。</p><p><b>有待提升的第二增长曲线</b></p><p>就像每个中年人都希望做点副业获得更多收入一样，巨头们也在打造新的增长点以获取持续的增长动力和安全感。</p><p>云业务就是微软、亚马逊、谷歌（Alphabet）的新增长希望。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f24aa8ac6c2beb41f189f54048bc47c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>过去一年多时间，微软Azure、亚马逊AWS、谷歌云每个季度仍保持30%-50%的高速增长。</p><p>2021全年，AWS 在亚马逊总营收中占比13.2%，同时贡献了55.5%的运营利润。</p><p>以Azure为核心的微软智能云去年全年总营收678亿美元，营业利润300亿美元，在微软总营收和总营业利润中分别占比36.7%和38.2%。</p><p>2021年，谷歌云收入192.1亿美元，营收占比7.5%，是谷歌收入占比第二大的单一业务。不过，谷歌云仍处于亏损状态，去年营业亏损超31亿美元。</p><p>总的来看，云业务在亚马逊、微软和Alphabet的营收中占比仍有待提高，目前还不能充当真正的营收顶梁柱。</p><p>在寻求新增长点上，Meta希望走一条云计算之外的路——Reality Labs，它包含了VR/AR以及元宇宙战略。</p><p>今年Q1，Meta 的Reality Labs 营收6.95 亿美元，同比增长30.15%，这部分收入的营收占比仅为2.6%，离真正的第二增长曲线还有很远的距离。</p><p>苹果的第二增长点来自互联网服务。今年Q1，苹果互联网服务实现收入198亿美元，在总营收中占比20.4%。</p><p>最近几年，苹果的服务收入保持稳定增长。今年Q1，随着苹果硬件收入放缓，其软件服务增速也有所下滑，同比增长17.3%，而此前几个季度的增速都在20%以上。</p><p><b>队伍不好带了</b></p><p>除了放缓的业绩，美国科技巨头还面临新的麻烦：工会组织正在风生水起。</p><p>4月1日，在纽约斯坦顿岛上一个被称为JFK8的亚马逊物流仓库内，亚马逊员工以55%的支持率，投票决定成立亚马逊史上第一家工会。</p><p>按照美国劳工法律，如果有资质的员工中有超过五成投票同意组建或者加入工会，就可以成立工会，然后上报全美劳资关系委员会批准。</p><p>目前，亚马逊全球的全职和兼职员工超过160万人，其中约110万在美国。它在美国是仅次于沃尔玛的第二大私营雇主。</p><p>但多年来，亚马逊的员工们对公司抱怨不断，他们对不够灵活的工作时间、恶劣的工作环境恶劣有诸多不满。</p><p>所以，亚马逊的蓝领员工（包括仓库员工、快递员等）一直试图成立工会，但一直因亚马逊的阻挠而失败。</p><p>第一个亚马逊工会的诉求很明确：通过集体谈判，为员工们争取更好的薪酬福利、工作环境和更长的休息时间等。</p><p>亚马逊不是唯一遭遇工会麻烦的美国科技巨头。</p><p>据《华尔街日报》4月初的报道，苹果公司的零售人员也在加紧行动，试图组建自己的工会，以获得更高的薪酬待遇，分享公司的发展成果。</p><p>去年1月，谷歌第一个工会——“Alphabet工会”宣告成立。他们《纽约时报》发表文章称，“工会将努力确保工人们了解自己的工作在做什么，获得合理的工资，同时不必担心受到虐待、报复和歧视”。</p><p>《纽约时报》在去年初的报道中称，过去几年来，员工维权行动已席卷硅谷。</p><p>《国际金融报》援引美国劳资关系委员会的数据称，2021年10月—2022年3月，该委员会共收到近1200份寻求工会代表的请愿书，同比增长57%，为10年来最高水平。</p><p>如果科技行业的工会组织不断壮大，意味着，科技巨头们要在人力资源上付出更高的代价，甚至员工管理的效率会因为工会的存在而被拉低，他们再难通过野蛮生长而获得快速发展。</p><p>大雨来临时，没有任何一片树叶能够幸免。美国科技巨头的遭遇有什么是值得中国科技企业借鉴和思考的呢？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1622337641338","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国科技巨头的“中年危机”是如何形成的？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-02 12:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml><strong>好看商业</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。这背后，科技巨头业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9affa90aeb60480d0aba843f0241d9e8","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-05-01/doc-imcwipii7536397.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117500727","content_text":"刚刚过去的四月，是美国科技股的“黑色四月”，悲观情绪蔓延。4月最后一个交易日，亚马逊一夜暴跌14%。整个4月，它的股价已经跌去23.8%，创下2008年1月大跌25.4%以来最大月度跌幅。无独有偶。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价也4月份大跌18%，这是它自2008年以来最糟糕的一个月份。4月份，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅达到13.3%，创2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。这背后，科技巨头业绩拉垮是其中一个关键原因。亚马逊Q1财报的财报堪称“全军覆灭”。这一季，其营收增速低于分析师预期，创下二十年来最低增速。其中线上销售、订阅服务和广告业务营收均不及分析师预期；云业务增速放缓。Q1经营利润也不及分析师预期。Alphabet的营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，两项指标均创五个季度以来最低增速。曾经的优等生变成了表现不及格的差生，市场的失望之情可想而知。成立于1994年的亚马逊如今已经28岁，看起来却像迈入了中年。在这一点上，亚马逊并不是孤例。在过去，人们常用FAAMG来代指美股五大科技巨头——脸书(Facebook)、苹果(Apple)、亚马逊(Amazon)、微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)。如今，脸书已经更名为Meta，谷歌也变成了Alphabet。他们都成功穿越了互联网、移动互联网，最老的微软如今已经47岁，最年轻的Meta也已经年过18。从今年Q1的财报来看，美国五大科技巨头纷纷表现出锐气不再、增长放缓的症状。此外，他们都面临新的麻烦：员工的工会组织纷纷成立，队伍不好带了。工会要代表员工向与他们谈判，争取更好的薪资待遇和工作环境。这意味着，科技巨头们要付出更高的代价。一场中年危机正在悄然来临。存量时代，越来越涨不动了美国五大科技巨头主要涉及三个大行业：消费、广告和企业服务；两个关键词：消费互联网和产业互联网。总的来看，全球消费互联网都处于存量争夺时代，受全球消费疲软影响，电商零售行业、智能硬件和在线广告的大盘增速都在放缓。这决定了其中的玩家们彼此竞争更加激烈，加上基数在变大，增速放缓是必然。据eMarketer的报告，2022年全球电商销售额预计将首次突破5万亿美元，占整体零售总额的1/5；2025年，这个数字或将突破7万亿美元。但从增速来看，将从2020年的26.4%降至2022年的12.2%，到2025年增速将降至个位数——9.2%。亚马逊已经是全球最大的电商零售平台，2021年净销售额4698亿美元，其中商品销售额约达2418亿美元。2021年，亚马逊同比增长22%，已经跑赢全球电商大盘16.3%的增速。今年Q1，亚马逊增速大跌至7.3%。这是亚马逊20年来的最低增速。去年同期，亚马逊实现了44%的增长。疫情之下的国际供应链变得低效而混乱，这严重影响了亚马逊的履约效率，导致其线上零售增长持续放缓，货运成本大幅提升。随着跨境电商新秀SHEIN、Shopify等的崛起，他们在疯狂与亚马逊争食国际市场，再加上俄乌战争，亚马逊的国际业务受到明显影响，收入下滑。在业务增长乏力的同时，亚马逊自身却处于新的投入期。2020年和2021年，公司在履约人力、场地等方面的投入翻倍，但2021年其零售业务的收入规模相比2019年只增长了65%。新的投入要带来新的营收和利润释放仍需要时间，再加上疫情和国际宏观形势的持续影响，亚马逊短期内似乎很难在财务和股价上得到明显的改善。全球消费疲软，智能硬件也未能独善其身。过去2年，全球智能手机出货量保持个位数增长或者负增长。今年Q1，全球智能手机市场出货量同比下滑7%。相比之下，苹果的表现超越大盘。今年Q1，苹果营收973亿美元，同比增长8.6%，高于彭博一致预期的940亿美元。其中主要得益于iPhone和Mac的拉动，两者该季度同比增幅分别达5.5%和14.6%。但总的来看，苹果这一季营收增速仍在下滑通道，创6个季度以来最低纪录，也首次跌破两位数。这背后，主要是苹果硬件业务增速下滑，本季度同比增长只有6.6%，为六个季度以来最低，包括iPad和智能穿戴设备本季度表现都低于市场预期。2022年以来，全球通胀高企，智能手机、PC等电子终端需求疲软。多家机构下调智手机出货量预测。Omdia最新数据显示，2022年智能手机显示屏需求较2021年实际出货量下降超过11%。下一步，疫情导致的供应链紧张、缺芯以及俄乌冲突也将持续对苹果业绩带来影响。苹果高管预计，受供应链短缺和中国工厂关闭等因素影响，二季度可能造成高达80亿美元的损失。疫情反复导致消费、旅游等行业受损严重，他们保存实力的第一举措可能就是消减广告等开支。这抑制了全球在线广告的增长。所以，尽管疫情期间人们花在网上冲浪的时间更长了，但是流量激增却没有带来广告收入的大幅上涨。据GIR的调研，2021年全球互联网广告收入大约2983亿美元，预计2028年达到6385亿美元，2022—2028期间，年复合增长率12.4%。而2014—2018年的年复合增长率为15.7%。Alphabet和Meta长期占据全球互联网广告第一和第二的位置，2021年二者的广告收入分别达到2094亿美元、1149亿美元。尽管如此，随着在线广告大盘增长放缓，以及各自基数变大，Alphabet和Meta的广告业务增速放缓难以避免。具体来看，2022年Q1，Alphabet营收同比增长23%，其中占比超8成的广告业务同比增长22.3%，均创五个季度以来最低增速；广告业务环去年Q4比下滑10.6%。广告是Meta收入的基本盘，目前营收占比超96%。今年Q1，Meta广告收入270亿美元，同比增长6.1%，低于市场预期的273亿美元；环比下滑17%。而其广告业务增速下滑的态势已经持续了一年时间。除了在线广告大盘增速放缓，竞争加剧也是导致Alphabet和Meta广告收入增长放缓的一大因素。全球在线广告市场几乎是一个零和游戏。现在，这个市场的玩家在变多，2021年，亚马逊、苹果以及TikTok等新玩家加速广告业务变现，来势凶猛。以TikTok为例，截至去年9月，其全球MAU已经突破10亿。总体年轻化的用户群体更有利于其商业化。据Insider Intelligence预测，2022年TikTok的广告收入规模有望达到110亿美元， 同比增长近175%。除了广告，其直播电商业务也在快速变现。Sensor tower的数据显示，2021年Q1 ，TikTok平台上消费者支出为8.21亿美元，是全球收入最高的非游戏类应用。尽管Alphabet和Meta都推出了短视频流媒体等新产品以应对来自TikTok的竞争，但这个战斗很难在短期内结束。相比之下，微软是美国五大科技巨头中表现最稳的一家。一年多来，其季度营收持续保持20%左右的同比增幅。这与微软的营收来源有关。微软目前三大块业务中，Office为主的“生产力与商业流程”业务和以Azure为核心的智慧云业务主要是TOB业务，目前合计营收贡献超过70%。其中，Azure在Q1收入114.5亿美元，同比增长46%。它的营收规模首次超越Office全线业务，成为微软收入绝对值最高，增速最快的业务。受益于云计算等新一代信息技术的发展，传统产业加速向数字化转型。据前瞻产业研究院的数据，2018-2020年全球数字经济规模持续上涨，2020年达到32.61万亿美元，占GDP比重为43.7%。不过，最近三个季度，微软的营收增速也处于持续下滑中。微软面向企业端的办公SaaS产品Office 365进入云端化红利尾声，收入持续放缓。而随着基数变大，Azure本季度的增速也触及历史最低水平。以Azure为核心的智慧云业务是微软下一步增长的关键。所以，没有企业的时代，只有时代的企业。在瞬息万变的科技领域，各领风骚三五年，成败切换尤其残酷。这就是时势的力量。面对大环境和大趋势，巨头们唯一不变的就是不断寻求变化实现增长，或者至少在此消彼长中立于不败之地。有待提升的第二增长曲线就像每个中年人都希望做点副业获得更多收入一样，巨头们也在打造新的增长点以获取持续的增长动力和安全感。云业务就是微软、亚马逊、谷歌（Alphabet）的新增长希望。过去一年多时间，微软Azure、亚马逊AWS、谷歌云每个季度仍保持30%-50%的高速增长。2021全年，AWS 在亚马逊总营收中占比13.2%，同时贡献了55.5%的运营利润。以Azure为核心的微软智能云去年全年总营收678亿美元，营业利润300亿美元，在微软总营收和总营业利润中分别占比36.7%和38.2%。2021年，谷歌云收入192.1亿美元，营收占比7.5%，是谷歌收入占比第二大的单一业务。不过，谷歌云仍处于亏损状态，去年营业亏损超31亿美元。总的来看，云业务在亚马逊、微软和Alphabet的营收中占比仍有待提高，目前还不能充当真正的营收顶梁柱。在寻求新增长点上，Meta希望走一条云计算之外的路——Reality Labs，它包含了VR/AR以及元宇宙战略。今年Q1，Meta 的Reality Labs 营收6.95 亿美元，同比增长30.15%，这部分收入的营收占比仅为2.6%，离真正的第二增长曲线还有很远的距离。苹果的第二增长点来自互联网服务。今年Q1，苹果互联网服务实现收入198亿美元，在总营收中占比20.4%。最近几年，苹果的服务收入保持稳定增长。今年Q1，随着苹果硬件收入放缓，其软件服务增速也有所下滑，同比增长17.3%，而此前几个季度的增速都在20%以上。队伍不好带了除了放缓的业绩，美国科技巨头还面临新的麻烦：工会组织正在风生水起。4月1日，在纽约斯坦顿岛上一个被称为JFK8的亚马逊物流仓库内，亚马逊员工以55%的支持率，投票决定成立亚马逊史上第一家工会。按照美国劳工法律，如果有资质的员工中有超过五成投票同意组建或者加入工会，就可以成立工会，然后上报全美劳资关系委员会批准。目前，亚马逊全球的全职和兼职员工超过160万人，其中约110万在美国。它在美国是仅次于沃尔玛的第二大私营雇主。但多年来，亚马逊的员工们对公司抱怨不断，他们对不够灵活的工作时间、恶劣的工作环境恶劣有诸多不满。所以，亚马逊的蓝领员工（包括仓库员工、快递员等）一直试图成立工会，但一直因亚马逊的阻挠而失败。第一个亚马逊工会的诉求很明确：通过集体谈判，为员工们争取更好的薪酬福利、工作环境和更长的休息时间等。亚马逊不是唯一遭遇工会麻烦的美国科技巨头。据《华尔街日报》4月初的报道，苹果公司的零售人员也在加紧行动，试图组建自己的工会，以获得更高的薪酬待遇，分享公司的发展成果。去年1月，谷歌第一个工会——“Alphabet工会”宣告成立。他们《纽约时报》发表文章称，“工会将努力确保工人们了解自己的工作在做什么，获得合理的工资，同时不必担心受到虐待、报复和歧视”。《纽约时报》在去年初的报道中称，过去几年来，员工维权行动已席卷硅谷。《国际金融报》援引美国劳资关系委员会的数据称，2021年10月—2022年3月，该委员会共收到近1200份寻求工会代表的请愿书，同比增长57%，为10年来最高水平。如果科技行业的工会组织不断壮大，意味着，科技巨头们要在人力资源上付出更高的代价，甚至员工管理的效率会因为工会的存在而被拉低，他们再难通过野蛮生长而获得快速发展。大雨来临时，没有任何一片树叶能够幸免。美国科技巨头的遭遇有什么是值得中国科技企业借鉴和思考的呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019831510,"gmtCreate":1648570286742,"gmtModify":1676534355831,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for remaining&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for remaining&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for remaining","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019831510","repostId":"1120016829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120016829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648539903,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120016829?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 15:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120016829","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Investors (and probably some short sellers) bid AMC stock up 45% in one day","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>AMC Entertainment Holding</b> (NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally is not because of fundamental strength, but rather because <b>Reddit</b> investors are actively trading the stock once again.</p><p>That is not to say the company hasn’t made some interesting moves recently. For instance, it invested in embattled gold and silver miner <b>Hycroft Mining</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>HYMC</u></b>), which is also a Reddit favorite. And today’s blastoff followed a <i>Reuters</i> interview in which Chief Executive Adam Aron said investors should expect more “transformational” deals in the company’s future.</p><p>Meanwhile, a slate of superhero blockbusters has saved the day for AMC. However, barring a few tentpole releases, there is not much to see regarding box office numbers, and the company’s core business interests remain under pressure.</p><p><b>Reddit Gives Thumbs Up to Hycroft Mining Purchase</b></p><p>Reddit seems to approve of AMC’s foray into the precious metals market. For many analysts, though, the investment in struggling Hycroft Mining is a headscratcher. Management seems to believe they have become experts at navigating troubled waters and coming out on the other side leaner and stronger. However, their credentials are dubious.</p><p>Yes, the company is in a much better position than it was just a couple of years ago. However, this has little to do with fundamental strength. Instead, you can thank AMC’s fans on Reddit for helping it stave off bankruptcy. The same fans believe that AMC’s investment in a mining company makes sound financial sense since gold is a tried-and-tested store of value.</p><p>Interestingly, after the great escape, the company has launched several initiatives, the most fascinating of which have to be allowing cryptocurrency purchases and offering NFTs. However, its core business continues to struggle. As entertainment companies engage in streaming wars and fight for attention, there will be little to motivate the casual viewer to check out the latest releases in theaters outside perhaps the odd summer blockbuster.</p><p>Selling branded popcorn could become a great revenue stream. However, it cannot take the place of the movie theater business for AMC.</p><p><b>AMC Needs to Revamp Its Business</b></p><p>The story of <b>Nokia</b> (NYSE:<b><u>NOK</u></b>) is a cautionary tale told in business classes worldwide. The company was the biggest cell phone manufacturer globally before being overtaken by <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>). Nokia’s downfall came from its inability to keep up with competitors like Apple, which were making better products. Nokia also made the mistake of only focusing on one type of phone instead of differentiating its product lineup.</p><p>However, there should be another chapter in the works because Nokia is now a growing 5G enterprise with healthy financials.</p><p>AMC will need to similarly change its operations by offering a more immersive experience. This will require a lot of experimentation, but eventually could be successful.</p><p>Blockbuster releases like<i>Spider-Man: No Way Home</i>are becoming rare in the post-pandemic era, and AMC needs to account for this.</p><p>Launching a digital coin and investing in virtual reality could be catalysts for future growth. Imagine watching a great art movie with friends in an amazing AMC theater from the comfort of your home in the metaverse. AMC might struggle to get people into a movie theatre for a movie like <i>The Last Duel</i>, but in a VR setting, perhaps consumers will be willing to give it a try.</p><p><b>AMC Stock Is Still Too Volatile</b></p><p>Today’s action in AMC stock likely had more than a little to do with short-sellers covering, as the percentage of shares held short is around 20% of the float. Traders certainly can’t rule out another short squeeze in the stock’s future, but they also can’t rule out a sharp sell-off.</p><p>Reddit adds another dimension of volatility to stocks like AMC. Because retail investors own a majority of the shares, sentiment on Reddit will continue to be more important than sentiment on Wall Street. Therefore, normal market moves are not the norm in AMC stock.</p><p>With uncertainty so high, unless you are risk-tolerant, there are few incentives to invest in AMC stock.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 15:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment Holding (NYSE:AMC) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120016829","content_text":"AMC Entertainment Holding (NYSE:AMC) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally is not because of fundamental strength, but rather because Reddit investors are actively trading the stock once again.That is not to say the company hasn’t made some interesting moves recently. For instance, it invested in embattled gold and silver miner Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ:HYMC), which is also a Reddit favorite. And today’s blastoff followed a Reuters interview in which Chief Executive Adam Aron said investors should expect more “transformational” deals in the company’s future.Meanwhile, a slate of superhero blockbusters has saved the day for AMC. However, barring a few tentpole releases, there is not much to see regarding box office numbers, and the company’s core business interests remain under pressure.Reddit Gives Thumbs Up to Hycroft Mining PurchaseReddit seems to approve of AMC’s foray into the precious metals market. For many analysts, though, the investment in struggling Hycroft Mining is a headscratcher. Management seems to believe they have become experts at navigating troubled waters and coming out on the other side leaner and stronger. However, their credentials are dubious.Yes, the company is in a much better position than it was just a couple of years ago. However, this has little to do with fundamental strength. Instead, you can thank AMC’s fans on Reddit for helping it stave off bankruptcy. The same fans believe that AMC’s investment in a mining company makes sound financial sense since gold is a tried-and-tested store of value.Interestingly, after the great escape, the company has launched several initiatives, the most fascinating of which have to be allowing cryptocurrency purchases and offering NFTs. However, its core business continues to struggle. As entertainment companies engage in streaming wars and fight for attention, there will be little to motivate the casual viewer to check out the latest releases in theaters outside perhaps the odd summer blockbuster.Selling branded popcorn could become a great revenue stream. However, it cannot take the place of the movie theater business for AMC.AMC Needs to Revamp Its BusinessThe story of Nokia (NYSE:NOK) is a cautionary tale told in business classes worldwide. The company was the biggest cell phone manufacturer globally before being overtaken by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Nokia’s downfall came from its inability to keep up with competitors like Apple, which were making better products. Nokia also made the mistake of only focusing on one type of phone instead of differentiating its product lineup.However, there should be another chapter in the works because Nokia is now a growing 5G enterprise with healthy financials.AMC will need to similarly change its operations by offering a more immersive experience. This will require a lot of experimentation, but eventually could be successful.Blockbuster releases likeSpider-Man: No Way Homeare becoming rare in the post-pandemic era, and AMC needs to account for this.Launching a digital coin and investing in virtual reality could be catalysts for future growth. Imagine watching a great art movie with friends in an amazing AMC theater from the comfort of your home in the metaverse. AMC might struggle to get people into a movie theatre for a movie like The Last Duel, but in a VR setting, perhaps consumers will be willing to give it a try.AMC Stock Is Still Too VolatileToday’s action in AMC stock likely had more than a little to do with short-sellers covering, as the percentage of shares held short is around 20% of the float. Traders certainly can’t rule out another short squeeze in the stock’s future, but they also can’t rule out a sharp sell-off.Reddit adds another dimension of volatility to stocks like AMC. Because retail investors own a majority of the shares, sentiment on Reddit will continue to be more important than sentiment on Wall Street. Therefore, normal market moves are not the norm in AMC stock.With uncertainty so high, unless you are risk-tolerant, there are few incentives to invest in AMC stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044924018,"gmtCreate":1656692704634,"gmtModify":1676535878685,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","listText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","text":"Recover to what level ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044924018","repostId":"1188024956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570479349727470","authorIdStr":"3570479349727470"},"content":"$13 within 3 months.","text":"$13 within 3 months.","html":"$13 within 3 months."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019836061,"gmtCreate":1648570732408,"gmtModify":1676534355829,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019836061","repostId":"2223813066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223813066","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648566428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223813066?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: This Is Still A Growth Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223813066","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryShopify is going to see growth slow in the next couple of years but is still expected to grow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shopify is going to see growth slow in the next couple of years but is still expected to grow revenue by 30%+.</li><li>Shopify is going to continue to grow market share, while the market itself grows as well.</li><li>Shopify is relying on heavy support and resistance to dictate price moves. Makes it very easy to place stops and increase position sizes.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f024c6733eb174523a22c8b79a5cedc5\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify Inc</a>. (NYSE:SHOP) is under heavy fire for lower projected growth, which is odd to me. This is because the growth is still there, it&#39;s just not going to be at the rate investors got used to over the last two years, which everyone knew were going to be outliers given the global pandemic. Did this many people actually think what was going on in 2020 and 2021 was going to be the new normal? That we would never visit stores in person again and malls would be dead as we know it?</p><p>Obviously, this isn&#39;t the only factor at play that has caused the 60% haircut in share price, but it seems to be a resounding theme. So the question I ponder is, what growth rate is acceptable? Analysts seem to still believe we will see 30%+ revenue growth over the next few years, and as long as I have been doing this, that&#39;s usually enough to keep investors invested. Especially for a company with a share price worth as much as Shopify&#39;s is. Therefore, I do think this is an opportunity.</p><p><b>What Do I Like About Shopify?</b></p><p>Maybe I am completely out to lunch here, but I think the company is extremely attractive at current levels. We can look at P/E, PEG, and PB ratios all we want, but those haven&#39;t mattered to investors for years. If they are coming back in favor, then there is still a lot to unwind here in the entire sector. Not just concerning Shopify.</p><p>What I do know about Shopify, and I led onto it earlier, is that the growth isn&#39;t going anywhere. Yes, we saw 85% revenue growth in 2020 as the world was scared into hibernation, and that was followed up with 57% growth in 2021. But, let&#39;s not forget that we are now talking about a company bringing in an expected $6.05 billion in revenue in 2022. Naturally, we would expect growth to slow. Looking below, we can get an idea of what investors are looking at and why they could be unhappy. But in all reality, the future looks extremely attractive as far as I can see.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abc5fadc3580885a1262efbb3d7c4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TIKR.com</span></p><p>The one red flag for 2022 is the projected EPS. We could see it fall to $3.36, which would be a 48% drop from the $6.41 we saw get posted in 2021. The good news is it will be short-lived, as analysts project it to come back to $12.43 by 2025. To me, this just seems like investors are shocked at just how much growth targets are decreasing, which I would have thought was obvious. If only I put my money where my mind was!</p><p>The long-term thesis behind Shopify is the belief in e-commerce. We are looking at a market that could be worth as much as $6 trillion by 2024. Now, that is on a global scale, but nonetheless, to be a fairly big player in that market is a good spot to be. With respect to U.S e-commerce, Shopify has been the second-largest player for several years now, but they continue to grow. Looking below, we can see that Amazon (AMZN) continues to run away with the race at 41% of the market, but Shopify is now sitting in double digits as they gained 1.7% of market share to get up to 10.3% in 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a778d313b2b871d266b9d505be659d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Shopify</span></p><p>Now, if you isolate this to e-commerce software, you will see that Shopify controls 29% of the market. The next closest are WooCommerce Checkout (23%) and Wix Stores (WIX) (14%). I do not see a reason why they would lose any further share. I fully believe that based on their current projections it&#39;s only going to continue to grow from here.</p><p>Just for fun, let me look at how the market valuation (old school way) looks. I mentioned they don&#39;t really matter a lot, and that&#39;s because only a few shorts months ago, we saw a Price to Sales (P/S) sitting at ~50x. Now, we see it sit around 18-19x. Has that solved the issue? Some may argue yes, but it doesn&#39;t explain why it ran up so much in the first place if it matters that much to investors. I personally chalk it up to momentum. Realistically speaking, even 18x is too high if we&#39;re playing this purely on fundamentals.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30d5d033342bbe872adff41098773862\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Macrotrends.net</span></p><p>If you liked Shopify at $1700, then you should love it at $670. Nothing has changed. The company is going to continue to grow, and continue to make everyone&#39;s lives easier. While the fundamentals may say it&#39;s still trading at a premium, it&#39;s hard to believe the bottom is not in given the projected growth coming in future years. Like it or not, e-commerce isn&#39;t slowing down.</p><p><b>What Does The Price Say?</b></p><p>As far as the technicals go, Shopify has played to a T. In early February when I wrote about Shopify being at a pivot point, I posted the below chart with the 3 levels to watch. Well, sure enough, every single line has come into play. This allowed me to pick some shares up under $575 as the stock bounced off my target line twice putting in a double bottom.</p><p>Shortly after we saw $666.78 blown through, and a test at $775 that was rejected. As we stand now, we are using $666.78 as support. I was forced to trim some as the stock rocketed up on the 18th to secure profits, but my current stop on what&#39;s left of these shares is sitting at $625.87 as I would love to hold this for the long term and I would look to add if we can get a good bounce off of support.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3fb857210308d63d5aaa2d60909ba0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TC2000.com</span></p><p>It goes without saying that if we do break my stop and test $525 once again, I would look to buy on a bounce. I do think the bottom is in here, but I keep my hopes and dreams in the back seat and allow price action to determine my actions.</p><p>As for the road back to $1700 and beyond, it remains a long one. My medium-term targets are set at $1020 and $1285. When do we get there? I have no idea. We&#39;re going to need some serious momentum in both tech, and the general market. Looking below we can see these are both pretty obvious levels to watch for. If you wanted a short-term target, you could look at $833. That&#39;s about 18% from where we currently sit. But, we need to see $775 fall first.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bd026f1f47b2aa4c0056a74e9aec1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TC2000.com</span></p><p>That said, I think the chart does look fairly bullish at current levels. I will continue to hold my current shares and continue to execute the plan detailed above so long as the levels all hold. I still think the market will remain volatile, and therefore stops are extremely important to keep in and monitor. Adjust as needed and maximize profits.</p><p><b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p>As you can see, while we may not see the numbers we saw in 2020 and 2021, we are still going to see high growth which is exactly what investors should be asking for. I believe that Shopify is a name you can start to add to your long-term accounts. The path back to $1700 and beyond is going to be a long one, but one worth traveling. The e-commerce giant is going to continue to grow internationally and continue to eat up market share. That will only turn into greater revenues as e-commerce sales continue to grow year-over-year. I am in Shopify for the long haul.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: This Is Still A Growth Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: This Is Still A Growth Story\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498194-shopify-this-is-still-a-growth-story><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShopify is going to see growth slow in the next couple of years but is still expected to grow revenue by 30%+.Shopify is going to continue to grow market share, while the market itself grows as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498194-shopify-this-is-still-a-growth-story\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498194-shopify-this-is-still-a-growth-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2223813066","content_text":"SummaryShopify is going to see growth slow in the next couple of years but is still expected to grow revenue by 30%+.Shopify is going to continue to grow market share, while the market itself grows as well.Shopify is relying on heavy support and resistance to dictate price moves. Makes it very easy to place stops and increase position sizes.JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesShopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) is under heavy fire for lower projected growth, which is odd to me. This is because the growth is still there, it's just not going to be at the rate investors got used to over the last two years, which everyone knew were going to be outliers given the global pandemic. Did this many people actually think what was going on in 2020 and 2021 was going to be the new normal? That we would never visit stores in person again and malls would be dead as we know it?Obviously, this isn't the only factor at play that has caused the 60% haircut in share price, but it seems to be a resounding theme. So the question I ponder is, what growth rate is acceptable? Analysts seem to still believe we will see 30%+ revenue growth over the next few years, and as long as I have been doing this, that's usually enough to keep investors invested. Especially for a company with a share price worth as much as Shopify's is. Therefore, I do think this is an opportunity.What Do I Like About Shopify?Maybe I am completely out to lunch here, but I think the company is extremely attractive at current levels. We can look at P/E, PEG, and PB ratios all we want, but those haven't mattered to investors for years. If they are coming back in favor, then there is still a lot to unwind here in the entire sector. Not just concerning Shopify.What I do know about Shopify, and I led onto it earlier, is that the growth isn't going anywhere. Yes, we saw 85% revenue growth in 2020 as the world was scared into hibernation, and that was followed up with 57% growth in 2021. But, let's not forget that we are now talking about a company bringing in an expected $6.05 billion in revenue in 2022. Naturally, we would expect growth to slow. Looking below, we can get an idea of what investors are looking at and why they could be unhappy. But in all reality, the future looks extremely attractive as far as I can see.TIKR.comThe one red flag for 2022 is the projected EPS. We could see it fall to $3.36, which would be a 48% drop from the $6.41 we saw get posted in 2021. The good news is it will be short-lived, as analysts project it to come back to $12.43 by 2025. To me, this just seems like investors are shocked at just how much growth targets are decreasing, which I would have thought was obvious. If only I put my money where my mind was!The long-term thesis behind Shopify is the belief in e-commerce. We are looking at a market that could be worth as much as $6 trillion by 2024. Now, that is on a global scale, but nonetheless, to be a fairly big player in that market is a good spot to be. With respect to U.S e-commerce, Shopify has been the second-largest player for several years now, but they continue to grow. Looking below, we can see that Amazon (AMZN) continues to run away with the race at 41% of the market, but Shopify is now sitting in double digits as they gained 1.7% of market share to get up to 10.3% in 2021.ShopifyNow, if you isolate this to e-commerce software, you will see that Shopify controls 29% of the market. The next closest are WooCommerce Checkout (23%) and Wix Stores (WIX) (14%). I do not see a reason why they would lose any further share. I fully believe that based on their current projections it's only going to continue to grow from here.Just for fun, let me look at how the market valuation (old school way) looks. I mentioned they don't really matter a lot, and that's because only a few shorts months ago, we saw a Price to Sales (P/S) sitting at ~50x. Now, we see it sit around 18-19x. Has that solved the issue? Some may argue yes, but it doesn't explain why it ran up so much in the first place if it matters that much to investors. I personally chalk it up to momentum. Realistically speaking, even 18x is too high if we're playing this purely on fundamentals.Macrotrends.netIf you liked Shopify at $1700, then you should love it at $670. Nothing has changed. The company is going to continue to grow, and continue to make everyone's lives easier. While the fundamentals may say it's still trading at a premium, it's hard to believe the bottom is not in given the projected growth coming in future years. Like it or not, e-commerce isn't slowing down.What Does The Price Say?As far as the technicals go, Shopify has played to a T. In early February when I wrote about Shopify being at a pivot point, I posted the below chart with the 3 levels to watch. Well, sure enough, every single line has come into play. This allowed me to pick some shares up under $575 as the stock bounced off my target line twice putting in a double bottom.Shortly after we saw $666.78 blown through, and a test at $775 that was rejected. As we stand now, we are using $666.78 as support. I was forced to trim some as the stock rocketed up on the 18th to secure profits, but my current stop on what's left of these shares is sitting at $625.87 as I would love to hold this for the long term and I would look to add if we can get a good bounce off of support.TC2000.comIt goes without saying that if we do break my stop and test $525 once again, I would look to buy on a bounce. I do think the bottom is in here, but I keep my hopes and dreams in the back seat and allow price action to determine my actions.As for the road back to $1700 and beyond, it remains a long one. My medium-term targets are set at $1020 and $1285. When do we get there? I have no idea. We're going to need some serious momentum in both tech, and the general market. Looking below we can see these are both pretty obvious levels to watch for. If you wanted a short-term target, you could look at $833. That's about 18% from where we currently sit. But, we need to see $775 fall first.TC2000.comThat said, I think the chart does look fairly bullish at current levels. I will continue to hold my current shares and continue to execute the plan detailed above so long as the levels all hold. I still think the market will remain volatile, and therefore stops are extremely important to keep in and monitor. Adjust as needed and maximize profits.Wrap-UpAs you can see, while we may not see the numbers we saw in 2020 and 2021, we are still going to see high growth which is exactly what investors should be asking for. I believe that Shopify is a name you can start to add to your long-term accounts. The path back to $1700 and beyond is going to be a long one, but one worth traveling. The e-commerce giant is going to continue to grow internationally and continue to eat up market share. That will only turn into greater revenues as e-commerce sales continue to grow year-over-year. I am in Shopify for the long haul.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010937499,"gmtCreate":1648225126063,"gmtModify":1676534319594,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH","listText":"ATH","text":"ATH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010937499","repostId":"2222088078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222088078","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1648220602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222088078?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-25 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222088078","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investing in these Berkshire Hathaway-backed winners could benefit your portfolio too.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company&#39;s &#34;favorite holding period is forever.&#34; The famously successful moneyman&#39;s ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long haul has helped his company benefit from winners that kept on winning, translating into portfolio performance that has absolutely crushed the broader market.</p><p>With Buffett&#39;s incredible success in mind, taking some inspiration from the Oracle of Omaha could help take your portfolio to the next level. Here&#39;s a look at three stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio that are worth buying and holding for the long term.</p><h2>1. Apple</h2><p><b>Apple</b> ( AAPL 0.18% ) has built <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most valuable brands in the consumer electronics and software services spaces. The company is the far-and-away leader in the mobile hardware market, far exceeding the competition in terms of profitability in the category thanks to its top-tier pricing power and incredibly loyal customer base.</p><p>This brand strength and customer loyalty have also allowed it to become an early leader in emerging product categories and create a powerful, encompassing product ecosystem. The Oracle of Omaha has been absolutely effusive about his love for Apple, going so far as to describe it as &#34;the best business&#34; he knows and as one of the four pillars of Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p>The investment conglomerate&#39;s position in Apple is now worth roughly $157.5 billion. The tech company accounts for roughly 47% of Berkshire&#39;s stock portfolio, representing an absolutely massive vote of confidence from one of history&#39;s most successful investors. And with strong positions in mobile and computer hardware, software services, and untapped potential in unfolding categories such as augmented reality and smart cars, Apple looks poised to continue serving up more big wins.</p><h2>2. Bank of America</h2><p>The Federal Reserve recently announced a quarter-point interest rate increase and forecast six more rate hikes this year. The measures are being conducted with the intention of fighting high levels of inflation currently hitting the U.S. However, the downside to interest rate hikes is that they will create their own pressures on the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money to fund growth initiatives.</p><p>Banks are one of the few businesses that are positioned to directly benefit from rising interest rates, and <b>Bank of America</b> ( BAC 1.47% ) stands out as Buffett&#39;s favorite in the industry by far.</p><p>With roughly $45 billion of its stock holdings in its portfolio, Bank of America stands as Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s second-largest stock position. The business is in far better shape than it was when the pressures of the 2008-09 financial crisis brought it to the brink, and it looks positioned to benefit from the rising interest rate environment.</p><p>Bank of America also pays a substantial dividend, with its current yield sitting at roughly 2%. What&#39;s more, the company has been raising its payout at a rate that significantly exceeds the currently elevated rate of inflation. The company&#39;s last dividend hike represented a 17% increase, and favorable business trends could put the banking giant in a good position to deliver another substantial payout raise this year.</p><h2>3. Amazon</h2><p>Even more so than usual, <b>Amazon</b> ( AMZN 0.76% ) has been in the news lately. The tech giant is on track to carry out a 20-for-1 stock split in June, and the announcement has helped spur an uptick in bullish sentiment. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant has posted massive gains since its last stock split in 1999, and making its share price lower through a split would make buying the stock more accessible for many investors and open the door for inclusion in the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b> index.</p><p>While the stock split won&#39;t do anything to alter the company&#39;s fundamental performance, it&#39;s worth noting that other growth stocks have seen stock gains correlate with split announcements and completions. <b>Alphabet</b> recently announced its own 20-for-1 stock split that corresponded with a surge in bullish momentum, and companies including <b>Nvidia</b>, <b>Tesla</b>, and Apple have also posted big valuation gains in windows of time shortly preceding and following splits.</p><p>However, while the potential for a near-term, split-related catalyst for gains may be appealing, it&#39;s Amazon&#39;s dominant positions in online retail and cloud infrastructure, as well as its fantastic penchant for innovation, that really stand out as reasons to own the stock for the long haul. In addition to its fast-growing digital ads business, the tech giant also has forefront positions in potentially revolutionary trends including artificial intelligence and robotics, and it looks poised to continue delivering wins for long-term shareholders.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-25 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company's \"favorite holding period is forever.\" The famously successful moneyman's ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4538":"云计算","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4574":"无人驾驶","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","ORCL":"甲骨文","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222088078","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company's \"favorite holding period is forever.\" The famously successful moneyman's ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long haul has helped his company benefit from winners that kept on winning, translating into portfolio performance that has absolutely crushed the broader market.With Buffett's incredible success in mind, taking some inspiration from the Oracle of Omaha could help take your portfolio to the next level. Here's a look at three stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio that are worth buying and holding for the long term.1. AppleApple ( AAPL 0.18% ) has built one of the most valuable brands in the consumer electronics and software services spaces. The company is the far-and-away leader in the mobile hardware market, far exceeding the competition in terms of profitability in the category thanks to its top-tier pricing power and incredibly loyal customer base.This brand strength and customer loyalty have also allowed it to become an early leader in emerging product categories and create a powerful, encompassing product ecosystem. The Oracle of Omaha has been absolutely effusive about his love for Apple, going so far as to describe it as \"the best business\" he knows and as one of the four pillars of Berkshire Hathaway.The investment conglomerate's position in Apple is now worth roughly $157.5 billion. The tech company accounts for roughly 47% of Berkshire's stock portfolio, representing an absolutely massive vote of confidence from one of history's most successful investors. And with strong positions in mobile and computer hardware, software services, and untapped potential in unfolding categories such as augmented reality and smart cars, Apple looks poised to continue serving up more big wins.2. Bank of AmericaThe Federal Reserve recently announced a quarter-point interest rate increase and forecast six more rate hikes this year. The measures are being conducted with the intention of fighting high levels of inflation currently hitting the U.S. However, the downside to interest rate hikes is that they will create their own pressures on the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money to fund growth initiatives.Banks are one of the few businesses that are positioned to directly benefit from rising interest rates, and Bank of America ( BAC 1.47% ) stands out as Buffett's favorite in the industry by far.With roughly $45 billion of its stock holdings in its portfolio, Bank of America stands as Berkshire Hathaway's second-largest stock position. The business is in far better shape than it was when the pressures of the 2008-09 financial crisis brought it to the brink, and it looks positioned to benefit from the rising interest rate environment.Bank of America also pays a substantial dividend, with its current yield sitting at roughly 2%. What's more, the company has been raising its payout at a rate that significantly exceeds the currently elevated rate of inflation. The company's last dividend hike represented a 17% increase, and favorable business trends could put the banking giant in a good position to deliver another substantial payout raise this year.3. AmazonEven more so than usual, Amazon ( AMZN 0.76% ) has been in the news lately. The tech giant is on track to carry out a 20-for-1 stock split in June, and the announcement has helped spur an uptick in bullish sentiment. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant has posted massive gains since its last stock split in 1999, and making its share price lower through a split would make buying the stock more accessible for many investors and open the door for inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.While the stock split won't do anything to alter the company's fundamental performance, it's worth noting that other growth stocks have seen stock gains correlate with split announcements and completions. Alphabet recently announced its own 20-for-1 stock split that corresponded with a surge in bullish momentum, and companies including Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple have also posted big valuation gains in windows of time shortly preceding and following splits.However, while the potential for a near-term, split-related catalyst for gains may be appealing, it's Amazon's dominant positions in online retail and cloud infrastructure, as well as its fantastic penchant for innovation, that really stand out as reasons to own the stock for the long haul. In addition to its fast-growing digital ads business, the tech giant also has forefront positions in potentially revolutionary trends including artificial intelligence and robotics, and it looks poised to continue delivering wins for long-term shareholders.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087864339,"gmtCreate":1650987185636,"gmtModify":1676534828637,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087864339","repostId":"1101176358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101176358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650985986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101176358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101176358","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Mic","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this year</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92eee40562356bb32d64d38627b1d33b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock</span></p><p><b>SoFi Technologies, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>SOFI</u></b>) is very ebullient about its 2022 expectations. Last quarter, its slide deck forecasted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will rise from $30 million in 2021 to $180 million in 2022. The only problem is the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now raising rates. That could put a damper on its outlook when it reports its first quarter (Q1) lending results on May 10. As a result, SOFI stock could become vulnerable.</p><p>However, it is not as if this danger to SoFi’s lending and earnings outlook is not already reflected in SOFI stock. For example, it is near its lows for the year at $6.55 per share on Apr. 25, down 58.6% for the year. That shows that investors are not very enthusiastic about the stock’s prospects going forward.</p><p>But have things been overdone on the downside for SOFI stock? For example, based on <i>Yahoo! Finance</i> statistics, it trades for just 1.33 times book value and 5.37 times sales. Based on <i>Morningstar’s</i> analysis, the stock traded for 14.6 times sales last year on average. So, maybe SOFI stock is cheap here.</p><p><b>Valuing SOFI Stock Based on Price-to-Book Value</b></p><p>However, we need to focus on the specifics. First of all, the company reported that its shareholder’s equity was $4.377 billion at the end of 2021. Given that its market capitalization (cap) as of Apr. 25 is $5.238 billion, that puts it at a price-to-book (P/B) value metric at just 1.20x, not 1.33 times, as <i>Yahoo! Finance</i> reports. The problem here, though, is that adjusted EBITDA profits will not necessarily translate into positive net income and higher book value (i.e., shareholders’ equity) for 2022. As a result, the P/B value could actually be higher if shareholders’ equity falls in Q1 and thereafter. That could lead to a lower price for the stock.</p><p>Here is one scenario that could play out: If the Fed’s higher interest rates reduce the volume of loans and profits at Sofi, that could lead to lower adjusted EBITDA and potentially a lower book value. Let’s say it falls 5% to $4.158 billion. Next, let’s say that the market decides to price financial asset companies like SOFI at below book value. This could occur if they assume that lending profits and losses could lead to book value dropping even lower. This often occurs during recessions.</p><p>Therefore, at 80% of book value, the market cap for SOFI stock would drop to $3.326 billion. That represents a decline of 36.5% from the market cap of $5.238 billion. This implies that SOFI stock could still fall over one-third to $4.16 per share (i.e., 65.5% x $6.55 per share price). So, let the buyer beware with SOFI stock. Most investors should wait until the company updates its financial outlook on May 10.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-26 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Michael Vi / ShutterstockSoFi Technologies, Inc.(NASDAQ:SOFI) is very ebullient about its 2022 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101176358","content_text":"SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Michael Vi / ShutterstockSoFi Technologies, Inc.(NASDAQ:SOFI) is very ebullient about its 2022 expectations. Last quarter, its slide deck forecasted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will rise from $30 million in 2021 to $180 million in 2022. The only problem is the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now raising rates. That could put a damper on its outlook when it reports its first quarter (Q1) lending results on May 10. As a result, SOFI stock could become vulnerable.However, it is not as if this danger to SoFi’s lending and earnings outlook is not already reflected in SOFI stock. For example, it is near its lows for the year at $6.55 per share on Apr. 25, down 58.6% for the year. That shows that investors are not very enthusiastic about the stock’s prospects going forward.But have things been overdone on the downside for SOFI stock? For example, based on Yahoo! Finance statistics, it trades for just 1.33 times book value and 5.37 times sales. Based on Morningstar’s analysis, the stock traded for 14.6 times sales last year on average. So, maybe SOFI stock is cheap here.Valuing SOFI Stock Based on Price-to-Book ValueHowever, we need to focus on the specifics. First of all, the company reported that its shareholder’s equity was $4.377 billion at the end of 2021. Given that its market capitalization (cap) as of Apr. 25 is $5.238 billion, that puts it at a price-to-book (P/B) value metric at just 1.20x, not 1.33 times, as Yahoo! Finance reports. The problem here, though, is that adjusted EBITDA profits will not necessarily translate into positive net income and higher book value (i.e., shareholders’ equity) for 2022. As a result, the P/B value could actually be higher if shareholders’ equity falls in Q1 and thereafter. That could lead to a lower price for the stock.Here is one scenario that could play out: If the Fed’s higher interest rates reduce the volume of loans and profits at Sofi, that could lead to lower adjusted EBITDA and potentially a lower book value. Let’s say it falls 5% to $4.158 billion. Next, let’s say that the market decides to price financial asset companies like SOFI at below book value. This could occur if they assume that lending profits and losses could lead to book value dropping even lower. This often occurs during recessions.Therefore, at 80% of book value, the market cap for SOFI stock would drop to $3.326 billion. That represents a decline of 36.5% from the market cap of $5.238 billion. This implies that SOFI stock could still fall over one-third to $4.16 per share (i.e., 65.5% x $6.55 per share price). So, let the buyer beware with SOFI stock. Most investors should wait until the company updates its financial outlook on May 10.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013046644,"gmtCreate":1648659911162,"gmtModify":1676534373478,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013046644","repostId":"2223092538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223092538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1648644301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223092538?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223092538","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Select analysts believe these fast-paced stocks can soar over the next 12 months.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>If these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.</li><li>Analysts&#39; lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are facing.</li></ul><p>Over the long run, the stock market has proved to be a wealth-building machine. Even though corrections are commonplace, investors are typically doubling their money about once a decade.</p><p>But for a select group of high-growth stocks, simply doubling your money in a decade won&#39;t suffice. According to the high-water 12-month price targets from a group of Wall Street analysts, the following three supercharged growth stocks offer monster upside ranging from 179% on the low end to as much as 331%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5c43d2584290008d74d267dba12d47\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p><b>Rivian Automotive: Implied upside of 218%</b></p><p>The first fast-paced company with significant upside potential is the hottest initial public offering (IPO) of 2021, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>Rivian Automotive</b>. Analyst Adam Jonas of <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></b> boasts the highest price target on Wall Street for Rivian. If Jonas&#39;s $147 price target were to hit, it would represent an increase of 218% from where shares ended this past week.</p><p>Jonas&#39;s lofty projection is based on the expectation that Rivian will be producing 1.5 million battery EVs (BEVs) annually by 2030, and will be able to grow its software business from an estimated $641 million in 2025 to approximately $36 billion by 2040 as the installed base of Rivian BEVs grows.</p><p>Pardon the pun, but the bullishness surrounding Rivian does have some fuel behind it. In 2019, the company secured an order for 100,000 electric vans from e-commerce giant <b>Amazon</b>. Even before becoming a publicly traded company, this order provided some level of validation that Rivian was poised to become a major EV player. Also, keep in mind that Rivian&#39;s R1T electric truck looks to be in a class of its own with regard to luxury EV trucks.</p><p>Additionally, Rivian is sitting on a mountain of capital following its IPO. The company ended 2021 with $18.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which is allowing management to aggressively invest in production expansion efforts.  For instance, $5 billion is being spent to build a manufacturing plant in Georgia that&#39;ll produce up to 400,000 EVs annually once it begins production in 2024.</p><p>But betting on Rivian to become a $130 billion company seems like a stretch when supply chain issues have cut expected EV production to 25,000 in 2022 from an estimated 50,000.</p><p>What&#39;s more, rising material costs have put Rivian between a rock and a hard place. Earlier this month, the company announced significant price hikes on its quad-motor models, only to walk back to those hikes on people who&#39;d placed reservations with the company prior to March 1. As EV companies like <b>Nikola</b> and <b>Lordstown Motors</b> have shown, overcoming PR flubs can be very difficult. Suffice it to say, $147 doesn&#39;t look achievable anytime soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1abce5caf5e785b826f62bb98ff77b01\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p><b>Ocugen: Implied upside of 331%</b></p><p>A second high-growth stock with monster upside potential, at least in the eyes of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> Wall Street analyst, is small-cap biotech company <b>Ocugen</b>( OCGN 6.87% ). According to Robert LeBoyer of Noble Financial, Ocugen can hit $15 a share, which would represent jaw-dropping upside of 331% from where it closed this past week.</p><p>In LeBoyer&#39;s view, Ocugen&#39;s upside is tied to COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin, which in his view holds competitive advantages over other COVID-19 vaccines already in use in North America. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently removed a partial clinical hold on Covaxin in the U.S., which officially clears a path for Ocugen to submit a biologics licensing application on the drug it&#39;s commercially licensed from Bharat Biotech.</p><p>Last year, Bharat Biotech ran a large-scale study involving Covaxin on 25,800 people in India. That trial produced a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 78%. Considering that there are billions of people worldwide still in need of initial COVID-19 inoculations and/or booster shots, we&#39;re still at a stage where new and effective vaccines are welcome on the global stage.</p><p>The issue for Ocugen is that its commercial agreement with Bharat concerning Covaxin only covers the U.S. and Canada. While these are traditionally high-margin markets, the U.S. and Canada have heavily invested in COVID-19 vaccines. A large percentage of the population for both countries have already been vaccinated and/or received booster shots. Further, new vaccine options with a higher VE than Covaxin are waiting in the wings.</p><p>To make matters worse, the FDA declined to grant Covaxin a pathway to emergency-use authorization (EUA) for pediatric patients aged 2 to 18. Despite the company announcing that it would continue to work with the FDA on a possible EUA path for pediatric patients, this revenue channel looks to be shut off.</p><p>Long story short, Ocugen still looks to be a ways away from having any chance of getting Covaxin approved for use in the U.S. -- and even if it&#39;s approved, there&#39;s little assurance it&#39;ll be used over other vaccines with higher VEs. LeBoyer&#39;s $15 price target is highly unlikely to be hit.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b9e73cc74dad844548f15906c23624\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p><b>Plug Power: Implied upside of 179%</b></p><p>The third growth stock with salivating upside is hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider <b>Plug Power</b>. According to H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal, Plug Power can hit $78 a share, which would represent an increase of 179% from where shares ended this past week.</p><p>Dayal&#39;s high-water price target on Plug Power is based on an expansion of the company&#39;s green hydrogen network, and the ongoing deployment of the company&#39;s hydrogen fuel-cell-powered GenDrive units. With most markets promoting clean-energy solutions, Dayal anticipates the company&#39;s margins will improve across the board.</p><p>Plug Power really put itself on the map in early 2021 when it struck two major partnerships within a span of one week. In January 2021, SK Group took a 10% equity stake in the company and formed a joint venture to bring fuel-cell solutions (for vehicles and refilling stations) to numerous Asian markets. Roughly a week later, Plug and French auto company <b>Renault</b> forged a joint venture to tackle Europe&#39;s light commercial vehicle market. These deals signaled that Plug&#39;s fuel-cell solutions were about more than just powering forklifts in warehouses.</p><p>The company has also signaled its willingness to be a key next-gen energy player with acquisitions. In December, it completed its buyout of green hydrogen solutions company Frames Group, which furthers Plug&#39;s ambitions of becoming one of world&#39;s leading green hydrogen ecosystems.</p><p>While there&#39;s little question that developed countries are pushing for green-energy alternative to fight climate change, it&#39;s not yet clear if Plug Power has the solutions that&#39;ll be preferred. Even at a $28 share price, we&#39;re talking about a company with a greater than $16 billion market cap that&#39;s losing money and hasn&#39;t yet demonstrated if it can handle rapid scaling. This isn&#39;t to say that it won&#39;t be able to scale its ecosystem, so much as to point out that its valuation implies everything will go off without a hitch. Rarely is that the case with next-gen technologies and solutions.</p><p>Although Plug Power is a company people can hope is successful, it has a lot of questions to answer at its current valuation, let alone one that would be 179% higher.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 20:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSIf these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.Analysts' lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","OCGN":"Ocugen","PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223092538","content_text":"KEY POINTSIf these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.Analysts' lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are facing.Over the long run, the stock market has proved to be a wealth-building machine. Even though corrections are commonplace, investors are typically doubling their money about once a decade.But for a select group of high-growth stocks, simply doubling your money in a decade won't suffice. According to the high-water 12-month price targets from a group of Wall Street analysts, the following three supercharged growth stocks offer monster upside ranging from 179% on the low end to as much as 331%.Image source: Getty Images.Rivian Automotive: Implied upside of 218%The first fast-paced company with significant upside potential is the hottest initial public offering (IPO) of 2021, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian Automotive. Analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley boasts the highest price target on Wall Street for Rivian. If Jonas's $147 price target were to hit, it would represent an increase of 218% from where shares ended this past week.Jonas's lofty projection is based on the expectation that Rivian will be producing 1.5 million battery EVs (BEVs) annually by 2030, and will be able to grow its software business from an estimated $641 million in 2025 to approximately $36 billion by 2040 as the installed base of Rivian BEVs grows.Pardon the pun, but the bullishness surrounding Rivian does have some fuel behind it. In 2019, the company secured an order for 100,000 electric vans from e-commerce giant Amazon. Even before becoming a publicly traded company, this order provided some level of validation that Rivian was poised to become a major EV player. Also, keep in mind that Rivian's R1T electric truck looks to be in a class of its own with regard to luxury EV trucks.Additionally, Rivian is sitting on a mountain of capital following its IPO. The company ended 2021 with $18.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which is allowing management to aggressively invest in production expansion efforts.  For instance, $5 billion is being spent to build a manufacturing plant in Georgia that'll produce up to 400,000 EVs annually once it begins production in 2024.But betting on Rivian to become a $130 billion company seems like a stretch when supply chain issues have cut expected EV production to 25,000 in 2022 from an estimated 50,000.What's more, rising material costs have put Rivian between a rock and a hard place. Earlier this month, the company announced significant price hikes on its quad-motor models, only to walk back to those hikes on people who'd placed reservations with the company prior to March 1. As EV companies like Nikola and Lordstown Motors have shown, overcoming PR flubs can be very difficult. Suffice it to say, $147 doesn't look achievable anytime soon.Image source: Getty Images.Ocugen: Implied upside of 331%A second high-growth stock with monster upside potential, at least in the eyes of one Wall Street analyst, is small-cap biotech company Ocugen( OCGN 6.87% ). According to Robert LeBoyer of Noble Financial, Ocugen can hit $15 a share, which would represent jaw-dropping upside of 331% from where it closed this past week.In LeBoyer's view, Ocugen's upside is tied to COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin, which in his view holds competitive advantages over other COVID-19 vaccines already in use in North America. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently removed a partial clinical hold on Covaxin in the U.S., which officially clears a path for Ocugen to submit a biologics licensing application on the drug it's commercially licensed from Bharat Biotech.Last year, Bharat Biotech ran a large-scale study involving Covaxin on 25,800 people in India. That trial produced a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 78%. Considering that there are billions of people worldwide still in need of initial COVID-19 inoculations and/or booster shots, we're still at a stage where new and effective vaccines are welcome on the global stage.The issue for Ocugen is that its commercial agreement with Bharat concerning Covaxin only covers the U.S. and Canada. While these are traditionally high-margin markets, the U.S. and Canada have heavily invested in COVID-19 vaccines. A large percentage of the population for both countries have already been vaccinated and/or received booster shots. Further, new vaccine options with a higher VE than Covaxin are waiting in the wings.To make matters worse, the FDA declined to grant Covaxin a pathway to emergency-use authorization (EUA) for pediatric patients aged 2 to 18. Despite the company announcing that it would continue to work with the FDA on a possible EUA path for pediatric patients, this revenue channel looks to be shut off.Long story short, Ocugen still looks to be a ways away from having any chance of getting Covaxin approved for use in the U.S. -- and even if it's approved, there's little assurance it'll be used over other vaccines with higher VEs. LeBoyer's $15 price target is highly unlikely to be hit.Image source: Getty Images.Plug Power: Implied upside of 179%The third growth stock with salivating upside is hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider Plug Power. According to H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal, Plug Power can hit $78 a share, which would represent an increase of 179% from where shares ended this past week.Dayal's high-water price target on Plug Power is based on an expansion of the company's green hydrogen network, and the ongoing deployment of the company's hydrogen fuel-cell-powered GenDrive units. With most markets promoting clean-energy solutions, Dayal anticipates the company's margins will improve across the board.Plug Power really put itself on the map in early 2021 when it struck two major partnerships within a span of one week. In January 2021, SK Group took a 10% equity stake in the company and formed a joint venture to bring fuel-cell solutions (for vehicles and refilling stations) to numerous Asian markets. Roughly a week later, Plug and French auto company Renault forged a joint venture to tackle Europe's light commercial vehicle market. These deals signaled that Plug's fuel-cell solutions were about more than just powering forklifts in warehouses.The company has also signaled its willingness to be a key next-gen energy player with acquisitions. In December, it completed its buyout of green hydrogen solutions company Frames Group, which furthers Plug's ambitions of becoming one of world's leading green hydrogen ecosystems.While there's little question that developed countries are pushing for green-energy alternative to fight climate change, it's not yet clear if Plug Power has the solutions that'll be preferred. Even at a $28 share price, we're talking about a company with a greater than $16 billion market cap that's losing money and hasn't yet demonstrated if it can handle rapid scaling. This isn't to say that it won't be able to scale its ecosystem, so much as to point out that its valuation implies everything will go off without a hitch. Rarely is that the case with next-gen technologies and solutions.Although Plug Power is a company people can hope is successful, it has a lot of questions to answer at its current valuation, let alone one that would be 179% higher.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019838913,"gmtCreate":1648570488077,"gmtModify":1676534355838,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019838913","repostId":"2223847445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223847445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648567361,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223847445?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223847445","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelit","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new split</li><li>Tesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers Monday</li></ul><p>Recent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one thing: Stock splits can spark big rallies as retail traders pile in.</p><p>Tesla surged 8% Monday, adding about $84 billion to the company’s market value, after saying it’s planning a second stock split in less than two years. Amazon jumped more than 5% the day after announcing a 20-for-1 split this month and the stock has been on a tear ever since.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0117766a74d29cbbd12057ff01150db8\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In theory, this shouldn’t happen. A split doesn’t affect a company’s business fundamentals, and investors averse to a stock’s high price tag can simply buy fractional shares instead. Yet splits are causing day traders to pile in, fueling rallies in these companies’ shares.</p><p>“We simply cannot fundamentally explain how a stock split can add nearly 1.5 times the market cap of General Motors or one full Volkswagen’s worth of market cap to Tesla almost instantly,”Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Tesla was by far the most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers on Monday, as well as Tuesday as of 9:47 a.m., according to data from the brokerage firm. Amazon’s announcement attracted “significant” retail interest and was likely the biggest factor in the stock’s outperformance during a week when the Nasdaq 100 fell almost 4%, according to Vanda Research.</p><p>“It is just a sentiment effect,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Retail investors perceive price differently -- and the stock is now attainable at a lower price.”</p><p>There may be other reasons for a company like Tesla to consider increasing its outstanding shares.</p><p>“The split can make the stock look more attractive, luring new buyers into the stock to help keep the recent momentum,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest Securities. “Perhaps this is Elon’s way of increasing retail ownership and reducing institutional ownership?”</p><p>Employee ownership and retaining human capital are more reasons. “A lower-priced stock makes it easier for employees with equity as part of their compensation to sell a more specific amount to satisfy tax liabilities and manage their personal wealth,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research said. “Once one company does it, they all have to do it since they are competing for similar talent.”</p><p>According to data from Vanda Research, net purchases of Tesla shares by retail investors spiked after Monday’s announcement and web chatter on the company also jumped.</p><p>Prior to 2020, share splits had almost disappeared from U.S. stock markets, with only two completed in the S&amp;P 500 in 2019 compared with a total of 41 in 2006 and 2007, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. But Apple Inc. and Tesla helped revive the practice after splitting their stocks in 2020, with more joining the pack this year.</p><p>In 2020,Tesla Inc.’s shares surged more than 60% from the day of the announcement to the execution date, while Apple shares rose about 30% in a similar time frame. Weekly retail purchases surged to just shy of $1 billion of Apple shares in the period leading up to its actual split, from about $150 million prior to the news, according to Vanda.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers MondayRecent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4507":"流媒体概念","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4566":"资本集团","GM":"通用汽车","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223847445","content_text":"Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers MondayRecent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one thing: Stock splits can spark big rallies as retail traders pile in.Tesla surged 8% Monday, adding about $84 billion to the company’s market value, after saying it’s planning a second stock split in less than two years. Amazon jumped more than 5% the day after announcing a 20-for-1 split this month and the stock has been on a tear ever since.In theory, this shouldn’t happen. A split doesn’t affect a company’s business fundamentals, and investors averse to a stock’s high price tag can simply buy fractional shares instead. Yet splits are causing day traders to pile in, fueling rallies in these companies’ shares.“We simply cannot fundamentally explain how a stock split can add nearly 1.5 times the market cap of General Motors or one full Volkswagen’s worth of market cap to Tesla almost instantly,”Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to clients.Tesla was by far the most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers on Monday, as well as Tuesday as of 9:47 a.m., according to data from the brokerage firm. Amazon’s announcement attracted “significant” retail interest and was likely the biggest factor in the stock’s outperformance during a week when the Nasdaq 100 fell almost 4%, according to Vanda Research.“It is just a sentiment effect,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Retail investors perceive price differently -- and the stock is now attainable at a lower price.”There may be other reasons for a company like Tesla to consider increasing its outstanding shares.“The split can make the stock look more attractive, luring new buyers into the stock to help keep the recent momentum,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest Securities. “Perhaps this is Elon’s way of increasing retail ownership and reducing institutional ownership?”Employee ownership and retaining human capital are more reasons. “A lower-priced stock makes it easier for employees with equity as part of their compensation to sell a more specific amount to satisfy tax liabilities and manage their personal wealth,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research said. “Once one company does it, they all have to do it since they are competing for similar talent.”According to data from Vanda Research, net purchases of Tesla shares by retail investors spiked after Monday’s announcement and web chatter on the company also jumped.Prior to 2020, share splits had almost disappeared from U.S. stock markets, with only two completed in the S&P 500 in 2019 compared with a total of 41 in 2006 and 2007, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. But Apple Inc. and Tesla helped revive the practice after splitting their stocks in 2020, with more joining the pack this year.In 2020,Tesla Inc.’s shares surged more than 60% from the day of the announcement to the execution date, while Apple shares rose about 30% in a similar time frame. Weekly retail purchases surged to just shy of $1 billion of Apple shares in the period leading up to its actual split, from about $150 million prior to the news, according to Vanda.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021028916,"gmtCreate":1652976687335,"gmtModify":1676535200394,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021028916","repostId":"1182742214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182742214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652969715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182742214?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182742214","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2% </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2% \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-19 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182742214","content_text":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060591634,"gmtCreate":1651160829876,"gmtModify":1676534861784,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","listText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","text":"Get to know better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060591634","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013041191,"gmtCreate":1648659023497,"gmtModify":1676534373428,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013041191","repostId":"1119843668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119843668","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648646522,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119843668?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119843668","media":"TheStreet","summary":"After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.</p><p>The 2022 selloff in Apple stock may finally be over. After stringing together 11 consecutive trading days of gains, the Cupertino company’s equity is within striking distance of being valued at $3 trillion once again.</p><p>Below, we discuss how far AAPL currently is from the milestone. We also present the potential near-term catalysts that could take Apple stock to all-time highs very soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d71f381c4db9400d5fc2676750c6db\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"821\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion.</span></p><p><b>AAPL: the road to $3 trillion</b></p><p>I have recently estimated that Apple will likely have 16.4 billion diluted shares outstanding at the end of the current quarter, which is only a couple of days away. This being the case, a share price of $183 would be enough to value AAPL at $3 trillion.</p><p>To get to these levels from the current intraday share price of $178, Apple stock would need to climb a mere 2.8%. For instance, shares jumped 3% on March 15 alone. Therefore, the stock could be only one good day of solid gains away from the key market cap figure.</p><p><b>The key short-term catalysts</b></p><p>It is a near certainty that Apple will only be able to reach a $3 trillion market cap soon if the broad market continues to find support. After entering correction territory earlier in 2022, the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has been rebounding strongly.</p><p>There are a few factors that could push the entire stock market higher from here:</p><ol><li>The conflict in Ukraine takes a turn for the better (i.e., it head towards resolution);</li><li>Crude oil prices continue to dip from the recent highs;</li><li>Inflation plateaus at around 7% to 9% and begins to moderate;</li><li>The Fed delivers the rate hikes that the market expects — not much more or less;</li><li>The US economy continues to show signs of strength;</li><li>Investors grow more confident that valuations have become attractive.</li></ol><p>A few company-specific catalysts could also play a role here. The most important, by far, is calendar Q1 earnings season, which is set to kick off in only a couple of weeks. Apple’s earnings day is likely four to five weeks away.</p><p>Keep in mind that Apple will start to face eye-popping comps in the current quarter. For instance, iPhone revenue growth this time last year reached an impressive 65%, for a two-year stacked annualized rate of 24%. Can the Cupertino company top that in fiscal 2022?</p><p>Regardless of headline numbers, it will be interesting to hear from CEO Tim Cook and team on a number of topics that could be bullish for AAPL stock. Among them:</p><ol><li>Are the supply chain constraints starting to ease?</li><li>How have consumers received the most recent product launches?</li><li>Is the recent Academy Awards win fueling demand for Apple’s services?</li></ol><p><b>The bad news</b></p><p>Things are definitely starting to look better for Apple stock and its investors. However, the good news (i.e. the recent share price rally) comes alongside bad news for those who chose not to buy AAPL when the price was more attractive, a mere couple of weeks ago.</p><p>I have stated repeatedly that buying Apple stock on the dip has historically proven to be the best decision. Unfortunately, the opportunity that stayed on the table for most of 2022 is no longer.</p><p>At only about 2% to 3% below all-time highs, investors that buy AAPL now must be comfortable with the idea of jumping in near a historical peak.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.The 2022 selloff in Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119843668","content_text":"After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.The 2022 selloff in Apple stock may finally be over. After stringing together 11 consecutive trading days of gains, the Cupertino company’s equity is within striking distance of being valued at $3 trillion once again.Below, we discuss how far AAPL currently is from the milestone. We also present the potential near-term catalysts that could take Apple stock to all-time highs very soon.Figure 1: Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion.AAPL: the road to $3 trillionI have recently estimated that Apple will likely have 16.4 billion diluted shares outstanding at the end of the current quarter, which is only a couple of days away. This being the case, a share price of $183 would be enough to value AAPL at $3 trillion.To get to these levels from the current intraday share price of $178, Apple stock would need to climb a mere 2.8%. For instance, shares jumped 3% on March 15 alone. Therefore, the stock could be only one good day of solid gains away from the key market cap figure.The key short-term catalystsIt is a near certainty that Apple will only be able to reach a $3 trillion market cap soon if the broad market continues to find support. After entering correction territory earlier in 2022, the S&P 500 (SPY) has been rebounding strongly.There are a few factors that could push the entire stock market higher from here:The conflict in Ukraine takes a turn for the better (i.e., it head towards resolution);Crude oil prices continue to dip from the recent highs;Inflation plateaus at around 7% to 9% and begins to moderate;The Fed delivers the rate hikes that the market expects — not much more or less;The US economy continues to show signs of strength;Investors grow more confident that valuations have become attractive.A few company-specific catalysts could also play a role here. The most important, by far, is calendar Q1 earnings season, which is set to kick off in only a couple of weeks. Apple’s earnings day is likely four to five weeks away.Keep in mind that Apple will start to face eye-popping comps in the current quarter. For instance, iPhone revenue growth this time last year reached an impressive 65%, for a two-year stacked annualized rate of 24%. Can the Cupertino company top that in fiscal 2022?Regardless of headline numbers, it will be interesting to hear from CEO Tim Cook and team on a number of topics that could be bullish for AAPL stock. Among them:Are the supply chain constraints starting to ease?How have consumers received the most recent product launches?Is the recent Academy Awards win fueling demand for Apple’s services?The bad newsThings are definitely starting to look better for Apple stock and its investors. However, the good news (i.e. the recent share price rally) comes alongside bad news for those who chose not to buy AAPL when the price was more attractive, a mere couple of weeks ago.I have stated repeatedly that buying Apple stock on the dip has historically proven to be the best decision. Unfortunately, the opportunity that stayed on the table for most of 2022 is no longer.At only about 2% to 3% below all-time highs, investors that buy AAPL now must be comfortable with the idea of jumping in near a historical peak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938468703,"gmtCreate":1662650762702,"gmtModify":1676537110544,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP&nbsp;","listText":"RIP&nbsp;","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938468703","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909842462,"gmtCreate":1658853528156,"gmtModify":1676536217858,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909842462","repostId":"1198339027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198339027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658848376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198339027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198339027","media":"人神共奋","summary":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>不可预测，但可应对</blockquote><p><b>可能性大的小概率事件？</b></p><p>每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”</p><p>我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“<b>黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见</b>，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”</p><p>总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”</p><p>嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！</p><p>既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？</p><p>《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。</p><p><b>黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。</b></p><p>这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。</p><p><b>我们不知道“我们不知道什么”</b></p><p>黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——<b>我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律</b>，体现在三个方面：</p><p><b>第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件</b></p><p>这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？</p><p>不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？</p><p>非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：</p><p><b>第二、过去的经验不可靠</b></p><p>在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。</p><p><b>经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠</b>，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：</p><p><b>第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事</b></p><p>假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？</p><p>自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。</p><p>作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“<b>我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因</b>”。</p><p><b>小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事</b>，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。</p><p>当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。</p><p>以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。</p><p>事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。</p><p><b>只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决</b></p><p>在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。</p><p>CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，<b>这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。</b></p><p>后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。</p><p>当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。</p><p><b>金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。</b></p><p>到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。</p><p>直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。</p><p>但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……</p><p>大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。</p><p>实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。</p><p>危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。</p><p>在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。</p><p>这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。</p><p><b>这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。</b></p><p>这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。</p><p>人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，<b>如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？</b></p><p><b>人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲</b>，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。</p><p>这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：<b>只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。</b></p><p>所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。</p><p><b>应对黑天鹅的三种方法</b></p><p>应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：</p><p><b>第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度</b></p><p>最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：</p><blockquote>“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。</blockquote><blockquote>不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。</blockquote><blockquote>想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。</blockquote><blockquote>事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”</blockquote><p>看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。</p><p>这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。</p><p><b>巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。</b></p><p><b>第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度</b></p><p>塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，<b>黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。</b></p><p>塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。</p><p>但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：</p><blockquote>“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”</blockquote><p>为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成<b>“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。</b></p><p>（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）</p><p><b>第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”</b></p><p>桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，<b>“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。</b></p><p>为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。<b>达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。</b></p><p>但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。</p><p>市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>黑天鹅思维的要点 ：</p><p>1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；</p><p>2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；</p><p>3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；</p><p>最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1583721040246","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 如何在“黑天鹅”频出的年代投资？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-26 23:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd><strong>人神共奋</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198339027","content_text":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。我们不知道“我们不知道什么”黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律，体现在三个方面：第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：第二、过去的经验不可靠在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因”。小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。应对黑天鹅的三种方法应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的苹果、可口可乐，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出通用汽车的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。总结黑天鹅思维的要点 ：1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059077965,"gmtCreate":1654270945157,"gmtModify":1676535423460,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059077965","repostId":"2240267835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240267835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654270459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240267835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 23:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240267835","media":"金融界","summary":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。</p><p>汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。</p><p>该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。</p><p>以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。</p><p>本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。</p><p>在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。</p><p>此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6月美股投资什么？小摩最新金股名单出炉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-03 23:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","ACVA":"ACV Auctions Inc."},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240267835","content_text":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的亚马逊也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。Relay Therapeutics是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了Signature Bank、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和Workday。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026550251,"gmtCreate":1653403826473,"gmtModify":1676535275718,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026550251","repostId":"1194936946","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062728915,"gmtCreate":1652109511637,"gmtModify":1676535031492,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMG","listText":"OMG","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062728915","repostId":"1104099384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104099384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652102839,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104099384?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104099384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter result","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104099384","content_text":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.For the March quarter, Palantir  posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}