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@Gentle麦克斯:跌麻了? 再等等
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再等等","htmlText":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點,跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問, 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股, 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空,官方也不待見[賤笑] ,持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股,花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼,還有點心裏按摩的意味,請大家耐心看完。首先, 講一個事實,2022年,美聯儲共6次加息,共加息150個基點,今年11月和12月將各加息一次,預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份,利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始, 在這之前大家對於美股還是比些樂觀的,相信了鮑威爾通脹是溫和的言論,這其中包括了很多華爾街的機構和投資,預期加息速度不會很快。但是3月的第一次加息以後,通脹不旦沒有很好的控制,俄烏戰爭帶來的能源通脹肉眼可見,華爾街機構們紛紛用腳投票,有做空機制的基金開始提高空頭倉位。然而,這些事件,大部分個人投資者也看到了,但是果斷採取行動的不多。 我瞭解下來大部分投資者的態度是被套後,認爲市場會起來, 當股票紛紛腰斬後就躺平。這是最符合人性的, 因爲要接受虧損的事實,並且忍痛止損確實是比較反人性的。 但是股票市場又很殘酷,接納了那個內心的自我,就得接受賬戶縮水得事實。我相信,如果你瞭解了週期,下次同樣的情景再現時,你會做不一樣的決定。大家是如何看待美聯儲加息這件事情的?比較確定的是這代表了緊縮貨幣政策週期的正式開啓。掌握股票定價的機構主要是華爾街的機構們,影響他們對股票價格判斷的因素主要有2個: 一個是估值偏好,另外一個是企業盈利, 前者是關於貨幣週期後者是關於經濟週期。當貨幣週期處於寬鬆時,投資人的心態就對估值容忍度就比較高,當今年開啓加息週期後,投資人對估值容忍度就比較低。舉個例子, 2020年,華爾街的投行們給亞馬遜定價的時候認爲30倍PE 是合適的, 而現在可","listText":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點,跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問, 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股, 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空,官方也不待見[賤笑] ,持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股,花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼,還有點心裏按摩的意味,請大家耐心看完。首先, 講一個事實,2022年,美聯儲共6次加息,共加息150個基點,今年11月和12月將各加息一次,預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份,利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始, 在這之前大家對於美股還是比些樂觀的,相信了鮑威爾通脹是溫和的言論,這其中包括了很多華爾街的機構和投資,預期加息速度不會很快。但是3月的第一次加息以後,通脹不旦沒有很好的控制,俄烏戰爭帶來的能源通脹肉眼可見,華爾街機構們紛紛用腳投票,有做空機制的基金開始提高空頭倉位。然而,這些事件,大部分個人投資者也看到了,但是果斷採取行動的不多。 我瞭解下來大部分投資者的態度是被套後,認爲市場會起來, 當股票紛紛腰斬後就躺平。這是最符合人性的, 因爲要接受虧損的事實,並且忍痛止損確實是比較反人性的。 但是股票市場又很殘酷,接納了那個內心的自我,就得接受賬戶縮水得事實。我相信,如果你瞭解了週期,下次同樣的情景再現時,你會做不一樣的決定。大家是如何看待美聯儲加息這件事情的?比較確定的是這代表了緊縮貨幣政策週期的正式開啓。掌握股票定價的機構主要是華爾街的機構們,影響他們對股票價格判斷的因素主要有2個: 一個是估值偏好,另外一個是企業盈利, 前者是關於貨幣週期後者是關於經濟週期。當貨幣週期處於寬鬆時,投資人的心態就對估值容忍度就比較高,當今年開啓加息週期後,投資人對估值容忍度就比較低。舉個例子, 2020年,華爾街的投行們給亞馬遜定價的時候認爲30倍PE 是合適的, 而現在可","text":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點,跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問, 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股, 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空,官方也不待見[賤笑] ,持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股,花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼,還有點心裏按摩的意味,請大家耐心看完。首先, 講一個事實,2022年,美聯儲共6次加息,共加息150個基點,今年11月和12月將各加息一次,預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份,利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始, 在這之前大家對於美股還是比些樂觀的,相信了鮑威爾通脹是溫和的言論,這其中包括了很多華爾街的機構和投資,預期加息速度不會很快。但是3月的第一次加息以後,通脹不旦沒有很好的控制,俄烏戰爭帶來的能源通脹肉眼可見,華爾街機構們紛紛用腳投票,有做空機制的基金開始提高空頭倉位。然而,這些事件,大部分個人投資者也看到了,但是果斷採取行動的不多。 我瞭解下來大部分投資者的態度是被套後,認爲市場會起來, 當股票紛紛腰斬後就躺平。這是最符合人性的, 因爲要接受虧損的事實,並且忍痛止損確實是比較反人性的。 但是股票市場又很殘酷,接納了那個內心的自我,就得接受賬戶縮水得事實。我相信,如果你瞭解了週期,下次同樣的情景再現時,你會做不一樣的決定。大家是如何看待美聯儲加息這件事情的?比較確定的是這代表了緊縮貨幣政策週期的正式開啓。掌握股票定價的機構主要是華爾街的機構們,影響他們對股票價格判斷的因素主要有2個: 一個是估值偏好,另外一個是企業盈利, 前者是關於貨幣週期後者是關於經濟週期。當貨幣週期處於寬鬆時,投資人的心態就對估值容忍度就比較高,當今年開啓加息週期後,投資人對估值容忍度就比較低。舉個例子, 2020年,華爾街的投行們給亞馬遜定價的時候認爲30倍PE 是合適的, 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