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再等等","htmlText":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點，跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問， 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股， 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空，官方也不待見[賤笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;，持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股，花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼，還有點心裏按摩的意味，請大家耐心看完。首先， 講一個事實，2022年，美聯儲共6次加息，共加息150個基點，今年11月和12月將各加息一次，預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份，利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始， 在這之前大家對於美股還是比些樂觀的，相信了鮑威爾通脹是溫和的言論，這其中包括了很多華爾街的機構和投資，預期加息速度不會很快。但是3月的第一次加息以後，通脹不旦沒有很好的控制，俄烏戰爭帶來的能源通脹肉眼可見，華爾街機構們紛紛用腳投票，有做空機制的基金開始提高空頭倉位。然而，這些事件，大部分個人投資者也看到了，但是果斷採取行動的不多。 我瞭解下來大部分投資者的態度是被套後，認爲市場會起來， 當股票紛紛腰斬後就躺平。這是最符合人性的， 因爲要接受虧損的事實，並且忍痛止損確實是比較反人性的。 但是股票市場又很殘酷，接納了那個內心的自我，就得接受賬戶縮水得事實。我相信，如果你瞭解了週期，下次同樣的情景再現時，你會做不一樣的決定。大家是如何看待美聯儲加息這件事情的？比較確定的是這代表了緊縮貨幣政策週期的正式開啓。掌握股票定價的機構主要是華爾街的機構們，影響他們對股票價格判斷的因素主要有2個： 一個是估值偏好，另外一個是企業盈利， 前者是關於貨幣週期後者是關於經濟週期。當貨幣週期處於寬鬆時，投資人的心態就對估值容忍度就比較高，當今年開啓加息週期後，投資人對估值容忍度就比較低。舉個例子， 2020年，華爾街的投行們給亞馬遜定價的時候認爲30倍PE 是合適的， 而現在可","listText":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點，跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問， 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股， 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空，官方也不待見[賤笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;，持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股，花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼，還有點心裏按摩的意味，請大家耐心看完。首先， 講一個事實，2022年，美聯儲共6次加息，共加息150個基點，今年11月和12月將各加息一次，預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份，利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始， 在這之前大家對於美股還是比些樂觀的，相信了鮑威爾通脹是溫和的言論，這其中包括了很多華爾街的機構和投資，預期加息速度不會很快。但是3月的第一次加息以後，通脹不旦沒有很好的控制，俄烏戰爭帶來的能源通脹肉眼可見，華爾街機構們紛紛用腳投票，有做空機制的基金開始提高空頭倉位。然而，這些事件，大部分個人投資者也看到了，但是果斷採取行動的不多。 我瞭解下來大部分投資者的態度是被套後，認爲市場會起來， 當股票紛紛腰斬後就躺平。這是最符合人性的， 因爲要接受虧損的事實，並且忍痛止損確實是比較反人性的。 但是股票市場又很殘酷，接納了那個內心的自我，就得接受賬戶縮水得事實。我相信，如果你瞭解了週期，下次同樣的情景再現時，你會做不一樣的決定。大家是如何看待美聯儲加息這件事情的？比較確定的是這代表了緊縮貨幣政策週期的正式開啓。掌握股票定價的機構主要是華爾街的機構們，影響他們對股票價格判斷的因素主要有2個： 一個是估值偏好，另外一個是企業盈利， 前者是關於貨幣週期後者是關於經濟週期。當貨幣週期處於寬鬆時，投資人的心態就對估值容忍度就比較高，當今年開啓加息週期後，投資人對估值容忍度就比較低。舉個例子， 2020年，華爾街的投行們給亞馬遜定價的時候認爲30倍PE 是合適的， 而現在可","text":"最近納斯達克和標普都創了近2年的低點，跟大家來嘮兩句。 有些朋友問， 好長一段時間沒看到我發帖。主要今年不看好美股， 只有一點點底倉。 老跑過來看空，官方也不待見[賤笑] ，持有多頭的朋友心裏也不是滋味。今年的主要投資機會在A股的高景氣行業個股，花的時間比較多。今天這篇不是看空貼，還有點心裏按摩的意味，請大家耐心看完。首先， 講一個事實，2022年，美聯儲共6次加息，共加息150個基點，今年11月和12月將各加息一次，預期125個基點。預計到明年3月份，利率將達到4.5%。今年的第一次加息從3月份開始， 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