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2024-08-26

this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.

Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype

2024-08-25

Great article, would you like to share it?

Can Nvidia’s Stock Hit a High After Earnings?

2024-07-02

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2024-07-02

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2024-02-17

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2024-02-15

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AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already

2024-02-15

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AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard

2024-02-10

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2024-01-14

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2024-01-13

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kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.&nbsp;","listText":"this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.&nbsp;","text":"this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342394699612504","repostId":"2462626136","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462626136","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724628883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462626136?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 07:34","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462626136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with e","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.</p></li><li><p>Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia&#39;s guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.</p></li><li><p>Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><p>Given its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.</p><p>Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.</p><p>Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.</p><p>Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.</p><h2 id=\"id_3940723290\">Shrinking Upside Surprises</h2><p>The one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts&#39; estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.</p><p>Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts&#39; forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts&#39; estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company&#39;s anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07602f2a5f5ccd39b9292971674fac8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3274521268\">High Levels of Implied Volatility</h2><p>The market seems a bit more uncertain about the company&#39;s results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74311574fd9a1583f6e8b592251d92e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26c2a7f6346ca54a48c96a08eafd430b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_34633815\">Options Dynamics</h2><p>Many call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia&#39;s earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4850df5d32e90376563d084deae548c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>However, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/293b47c4b948562e6fd569ec66c2974b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>In fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d34202f7ffe762651533e7221fada2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This means that if the stock doesn&#39;t rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.</p><h2 id=\"id_1668259140\">Peak Growth</h2><p>Additionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock&#39;s price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn&#39;t to say that Nvidia&#39;s stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22ab6680222d5273abaa3598effffa71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Perhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.</p><p>But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462626136","content_text":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.JHVEPhotoGiven its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.Shrinking Upside SurprisesThe one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts' estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts' forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts' estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company's anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.BloombergHigh Levels of Implied VolatilityThe market seems a bit more uncertain about the company's results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.BloombergThis results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.BloombergOptions DynamicsMany call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia's earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.BloombergHowever, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.BloombergIn fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.BloombergThis means that if the stock doesn't rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.Peak GrowthAdditionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock's price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn't to say that Nvidia's stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.BloombergPerhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342175067312200,"gmtCreate":1724560764281,"gmtModify":1724560766121,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342175067312200","repostId":"2461526376","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461526376","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1724554800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2461526376?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-25 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Nvidia’s Stock Hit a High After Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461526376","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Stock-option ‘straddles’ aren’t priced for blowout earnings, but they do skew toward the upsideAn option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stock-option ‘straddles’ aren’t priced for blowout earnings, but they do skew toward the upside</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4403739a95ccdec9e1b46e8bbfd522f2\" alt=\"An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.\" title=\"An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"608\"/><span>An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.</span></p><p>Investors may have high hopes that Nvidia Corp. will again report strong earnings that propel its stock to record highs. Not so fast, the options market appears to be saying.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The semiconductor company and proxy for the artificial-intelligence boom is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the Aug. 28 closing bell.</p><p>The company has beat profit and sales expectations and provided upbeat guidance for the past six quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group.</p><p>And more recently, the stock soared 9.3% to close at a record high the day after first-quarter results were reported. It also soared 16.4% to a record the day after the fourth-quarter report.</p><p>Based on current prices, with the stock surging 4.6% to close Friday at $129.37, it would only take a further increase of a little less than 5% to close above the June 18 record close of $135.58.</p><p>Meanwhile, the pricing of an options strategy known as a “straddle” suggests a three-peat might look like a good bet. But if you looked a little closer at how the straddles are priced, you’d see that the odds of a post-earnings record were actually pretty low.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Straddles are bets on the absolute value of a stock’s move after an event, meaning they are not directional. Basically, they’re not unlike an over-under bet on total points scored in a football game.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to data provided by Matt Amberson, principal at Option Research &amp; Technology Services, straddles are priced for a $12.58 move in Nvidia’s stock the day after earnings, which represents a 9.7% move at Friday’s closing price.</p><p>The average post-earnings move over the past 12 quarters is $10.01, which represents a 10.5% move based on the stock price just before the first-quarter report.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Based on Friday’s closing price, a buyer of a straddle would start making money if Nvidia’s stock rose above $141.86 or fell below $116.70.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But keep in mind that the options market is basically like Las Vegas oddsmakers, as it uses recent and expected volatility, time until a specific event and demand to gauge how much investors may be willing to pay for a specific scenario.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And like the house in Vegas, the options market usually wins.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson noted that the implied move of a straddle is the weighted average of all the potential moves based on different parameters.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For example, a recent drill-down into the recent pricing of more specific scenarios had put the probability of Nvidia’s stock rising after earnings to $135 — or just below the record high — at 25%, and the probability of its reaching $137.50 at 22%. (The spot price used for Jacobson’s analysis was near Thursday’s close.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">To get to $142.50, which would mean buyers of straddles at current prices would be making money, the options market had put that probability at 16%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Straddles aren’t meant to be directional, but there is something called “skew” in the options market, in which a bullish or bearish option may be a little more expensive than its respective opposite bet with the same parameters, based on demand.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson said that with Nvidia’s options, “the skew continues to appear to be more to the upside.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He said options had placed about an 8% chance of a selloff of 19% or more after the earnings report, compared with about an 11% chance of a rally of 19% or more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Nvidia’s Stock Hit a High After Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Nvidia’s Stock Hit a High After Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-25 11:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stock-option ‘straddles’ aren’t priced for blowout earnings, but they do skew toward the upside</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4403739a95ccdec9e1b46e8bbfd522f2\" alt=\"An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.\" title=\"An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"608\"/><span>An option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.</span></p><p>Investors may have high hopes that Nvidia Corp. will again report strong earnings that propel its stock to record highs. Not so fast, the options market appears to be saying.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The semiconductor company and proxy for the artificial-intelligence boom is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the Aug. 28 closing bell.</p><p>The company has beat profit and sales expectations and provided upbeat guidance for the past six quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group.</p><p>And more recently, the stock soared 9.3% to close at a record high the day after first-quarter results were reported. It also soared 16.4% to a record the day after the fourth-quarter report.</p><p>Based on current prices, with the stock surging 4.6% to close Friday at $129.37, it would only take a further increase of a little less than 5% to close above the June 18 record close of $135.58.</p><p>Meanwhile, the pricing of an options strategy known as a “straddle” suggests a three-peat might look like a good bet. But if you looked a little closer at how the straddles are priced, you’d see that the odds of a post-earnings record were actually pretty low.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Straddles are bets on the absolute value of a stock’s move after an event, meaning they are not directional. Basically, they’re not unlike an over-under bet on total points scored in a football game.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to data provided by Matt Amberson, principal at Option Research &amp; Technology Services, straddles are priced for a $12.58 move in Nvidia’s stock the day after earnings, which represents a 9.7% move at Friday’s closing price.</p><p>The average post-earnings move over the past 12 quarters is $10.01, which represents a 10.5% move based on the stock price just before the first-quarter report.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Based on Friday’s closing price, a buyer of a straddle would start making money if Nvidia’s stock rose above $141.86 or fell below $116.70.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But keep in mind that the options market is basically like Las Vegas oddsmakers, as it uses recent and expected volatility, time until a specific event and demand to gauge how much investors may be willing to pay for a specific scenario.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And like the house in Vegas, the options market usually wins.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson noted that the implied move of a straddle is the weighted average of all the potential moves based on different parameters.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For example, a recent drill-down into the recent pricing of more specific scenarios had put the probability of Nvidia’s stock rising after earnings to $135 — or just below the record high — at 25%, and the probability of its reaching $137.50 at 22%. (The spot price used for Jacobson’s analysis was near Thursday’s close.)</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">To get to $142.50, which would mean buyers of straddles at current prices would be making money, the options market had put that probability at 16%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Straddles aren’t meant to be directional, but there is something called “skew” in the options market, in which a bullish or bearish option may be a little more expensive than its respective opposite bet with the same parameters, based on demand.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson said that with Nvidia’s options, “the skew continues to appear to be more to the upside.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He said options had placed about an 8% chance of a selloff of 19% or more after the earnings report, compared with about an 11% chance of a rally of 19% or more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2461526376","content_text":"Stock-option ‘straddles’ aren’t priced for blowout earnings, but they do skew toward the upsideAn option straddle on Nvidia’s stock is priced for a move well above its record close after earnings, but that doesn’t mean that’s what is expected.Investors may have high hopes that Nvidia Corp. will again report strong earnings that propel its stock to record highs. Not so fast, the options market appears to be saying.The semiconductor company and proxy for the artificial-intelligence boom is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the Aug. 28 closing bell.The company has beat profit and sales expectations and provided upbeat guidance for the past six quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group.And more recently, the stock soared 9.3% to close at a record high the day after first-quarter results were reported. It also soared 16.4% to a record the day after the fourth-quarter report.Based on current prices, with the stock surging 4.6% to close Friday at $129.37, it would only take a further increase of a little less than 5% to close above the June 18 record close of $135.58.Meanwhile, the pricing of an options strategy known as a “straddle” suggests a three-peat might look like a good bet. But if you looked a little closer at how the straddles are priced, you’d see that the odds of a post-earnings record were actually pretty low.Straddles are bets on the absolute value of a stock’s move after an event, meaning they are not directional. Basically, they’re not unlike an over-under bet on total points scored in a football game.According to data provided by Matt Amberson, principal at Option Research & Technology Services, straddles are priced for a $12.58 move in Nvidia’s stock the day after earnings, which represents a 9.7% move at Friday’s closing price.The average post-earnings move over the past 12 quarters is $10.01, which represents a 10.5% move based on the stock price just before the first-quarter report.Based on Friday’s closing price, a buyer of a straddle would start making money if Nvidia’s stock rose above $141.86 or fell below $116.70.But keep in mind that the options market is basically like Las Vegas oddsmakers, as it uses recent and expected volatility, time until a specific event and demand to gauge how much investors may be willing to pay for a specific scenario.And like the house in Vegas, the options market usually wins.Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson noted that the implied move of a straddle is the weighted average of all the potential moves based on different parameters.For example, a recent drill-down into the recent pricing of more specific scenarios had put the probability of Nvidia’s stock rising after earnings to $135 — or just below the record high — at 25%, and the probability of its reaching $137.50 at 22%. (The spot price used for Jacobson’s analysis was near Thursday’s close.)To get to $142.50, which would mean buyers of straddles at current prices would be making money, the options market had put that probability at 16%.Straddles aren’t meant to be directional, but there is something called “skew” in the options market, in which a bullish or bearish option may be a little more expensive than its respective opposite bet with the same parameters, based on demand.Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson said that with Nvidia’s options, “the skew continues to appear to be more to the upside.”He said options had placed about an 8% chance of a selloff of 19% or more after the earnings report, compared with about an 11% chance of a rally of 19% or more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322848240943176,"gmtCreate":1719850731024,"gmtModify":1719850734565,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets go[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Lets go[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Lets go[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322848240943176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322847102926968,"gmtCreate":1719850709610,"gmtModify":1719850711695,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322847102926968","repostId":"313600081719480","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":313600081719480,"gmtCreate":1717584773809,"gmtModify":1719559158217,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"[10th Anniv] Discover exciting features & win a US$1,010 reward!","htmlText":"🎉 Unlock Your Path to $1,010 voucher with Our Winning Guide! 🎉Our exclusive anniversary event is now LIVE, and we want YOU to join in the fun! 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While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.</p><p>A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to &#34;survive the flood,&#34; I&#39;m going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.</p><h2 id=\"id_556213205\">Reverse-Engineering the Valuation</h2><p>The first thing is to unpack is what&#39;s reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it&#39;s one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00d177cd1702da079ab895431c41384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>It&#39;s been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD&#39;s GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it&#39;s selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3eaeebf982d09df3ec2373c95983855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculation</p><p></p><p>If we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.</p><p>Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>, it&#39;s a handy gauge for investors looking for &#34;growth at a reasonable price.&#34; Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren&#39;t standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:</p><blockquote><p>My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I&#39;m wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.</p></blockquote><p>&#34;What that means&#34; is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:</p><blockquote><p>...wonderful companies become risky investments <em>when people overpay</em>, using McDonald&#39;s as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to &#34;live up to these expectations,&#34; the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a &#34;more realistic&#34; 13 times earnings.</p></blockquote><p>McDonald&#39;s is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.</p><p>What&#39;s the impact of AI to AMD&#39;s earnings? We don&#39;t know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4228085524\">Mystery of AI-Driven Growth</h2><p>The company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.</p><p>What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I&#39;ve seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let&#39;s just observe carefully what it says the abstract:</p><blockquote><p>The AI market covers a <strong>vast number of industries</strong>. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.</p></blockquote><p>In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business&#39;s fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.</p><p>I also mentioned McDonald&#39;s above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald&#39;s in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn&#39;t matter whose car you bought.</p><p>Fast food doesn&#39;t care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it&#39;s been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there&#39;s always an element of trial and error that spans years.</p><p>Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn&#39;t occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.</p><h2 id=\"id_1489106187\">History of the Share Price</h2><p>Unlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock&#39;s history. To assist further, here are the prices:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>May 29, 2000: <strong>$45.07</strong></p></li><li><p>Feb. 13, 2006: <strong>$40.33</strong></p></li><li><p>Nov. 22, 2021: <strong>$154.81</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e87029494fe2cf84ad2467f7b91c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD&#39;s chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.</p><p>With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d60b236bc55a2e60558e8a5c3a74b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today&#39;s peak is only about 4x that of 2000&#39;s, the market cap is more than 20x. Today&#39;s stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000&#39;s price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that&#39;s another major risk that investors are overlooking.</p><h2 id=\"id_3991879825\">The Indirect Capex of SBC</h2><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.</p><p>Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don&#39;t count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dd6ee8d5cb8fd52b4ef0f08e2ad7cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)</p><p></p><p>Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.</p><p>Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it&#39;s a subtle detail that investors should know.</p><p>Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD&#39;s multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.</p><h2 id=\"id_1541592541\">Conclusion</h2><p>The parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn&#39;t save him, and God tells him, &#34;I sent you two boats and a helicopter.&#34;</p><p>In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.</p><p>Folks don&#39;t make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don&#39;t make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it&#39;s wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Take The Rescue Boat Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-14 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4529":"IDC概念","INTC":"英特尔","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","MCD":"麦当劳","BK4573":"虚拟现实","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669945-amd-take-the-rescue-boat-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411108323","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company that has seen success in capturing market share from Intel and Nvidia.The current stock price of AMD is unreasonably high, given unrealistic growth expectations and the situation with share repurchases, making it a sell for long-term investors.The history of AMD's stock price and market cap shows the risk of overpaying for the stock and the potential for limited further growth.Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is another, alongside Nvidia (NVDA), it's known for successfully capturing market share from Intel (INTC) and achieving enormous returns as a result. While this mostly rode the rise of the video game industry, advances in AI in 2023 have opened further doors for the company and the semi industry broadly.A recent rally has brought AMD to an all-time high over $170, a range at which it has traded flat for the last few weeks. For folks looking to \"survive the flood,\" I'm going to explain why this price is unreasonably rich for this company, given the unrealistic growth expectations, previous peaks, and the situation with share repurchases, making the stock a SELL for long-term investors.Reverse-Engineering the ValuationThe first thing is to unpack is what's reflected in the current valuation of AMD. With a market cap around $278 billion, it's one of the most expensive companies out there, but that gives us room to compare the price to its current cash flows and derive certain growth assumptions. What has the cash flow history been?Cash Flow Data (Seeking Alpha)It's been pretty volatile over recent years, but the trend has been improvement and growth. In particular, COVID accelerated the growth of the video game industry (and thus demand for AMD's GPUs). While the COVID boom expired, it's selling more product than in 2019. I chose to average this mini-cycle shown in the years spanning 2020 - 2023. Using these totals of operating cash flows and capex, we get an average, annual free cash flow of slightly over $2 billion. We can then use a Discounted Cash Flow model to infer growth assumptions.Author's calculationIf we expect this level of FCF to grow at about 27% each year for the next decade—and for such continued growth to be reflected in the terminal multiple—that gets us to a similar market cap. We could tweak things between growth and multiples for fun, but that gives us a general idea.Plenty of readers are aware of the Price-Earnings-Growth Ratio, or PEG. Developed by famed investor Peter Lynch and discussed in his book, One Up on Wall Street, it's a handy gauge for investors looking for \"growth at a reasonable price.\" Lynch concluded that if the P/E ratio (cash flow statements weren't standard until the 90s) is less than or equal to the average growth rate, a stock would likely be a good buy and produce profitable returns. There are a few excerpts of his worth examining. First, on growth rates:My favorites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. I'm wary of companies that seem to be growing faster than 25 percent. Those 50 percenters are usually in hot industries, and you know what that means.\"What that means\" is that increased competition or market saturation will soon follow. On high multiples, he wrote:...wonderful companies become risky investments when people overpay, using McDonald's as exhibit A. In 1972, the stock was bid up to a precarious 50 times earnings. With no way to \"live up to these expectations,\" the price fell from $75 to $25, a great buying opportunity at a \"more realistic\" 13 times earnings.McDonald's is a fast food chain, but his book is full of similar examples from other industries. Companies are only as valuable as they are capable of making money, and however successful the business, it will produce a finite amount of earnings, have a finite value, and thus deserve a finite stock price. If the P/FCF is about 48 on recent prices, that means either a golden age of growth is ahead or that AMD is grossly overpriced, and I believe the second is more likely.What's the impact of AI to AMD's earnings? We don't know yet, and if we did, I doubt anyone would consider a multiple of 48 to be a bargain.Mystery of AI-Driven GrowthThe company has been laying out its intentions for AI-focused product. While some may quibble about whether or not NVDA is better for this, it still contributes to an overall rise in demand for chips.What I find interesting is the sheer certainty that seems to exist on the value of AI. I've seen reference to this figure by Statista, saying the market value of AI will be just under $2 trillion by the end of the decade. We can wonder how they reasonable came to that, but, let's just observe carefully what it says the abstract:The AI market covers a vast number of industries. Everything from supply chains, marketing, product making, research, analysis, and more are fields that will in some aspect adopt artificial intelligence within their business structures.In other words, the value of AI is going to felt in many places, not necessarily chip-makers. While stock prices of companies like AMD are up on this optimism, how certain is it that they will be the best investments? As I explored above, a business's fundamental value is in its cash flow, and price matters.I also mentioned McDonald's above when quoting Lynch, but I think they can be useful again. While investors mainly started to see the potential of chains like McDonald's in the 70s, buyers of MCD at that time were simply late beneficiaries of the automobile revolution. Plenty of car manufacturers were started and went out of business in the first half of the 20th Century. If you picked Ford or GM, you were right. Meanwhile, other businesses developed their models to benefit from automobiles, such that it didn't matter whose car you bought.Fast food doesn't care if you take a Pontiac to their drive-thru or not. GEICO gets to write an insurance policy either way (and it's been a great investment for Buffett). My point is that the winners and losers of technological revolution may not all become clear at once. In fact, there's always an element of trial and error that spans years.Investors who get overeager can price in growth that hasn't occurred in a stock like AMD, and they may tie up their capital while overlooking other opportunities that are soon to arrive.History of the Share PriceUnlike some other currently popular stocks, AMD has been around for a long time. We can look at the history of its stock and various ups and downs. With the power of copying and pasting (sadly, not generative AI), I got a chart that marks the dates of different peaks in the stock's history. To assist further, here are the prices:May 29, 2000: $45.07Feb. 13, 2006: $40.33Nov. 22, 2021: $154.81AMD Price History (Seeking Alpha)The market has shown tremendous ability to change its mind about this company and stock throughout its life. No doubt, people believed that AMD's chips would be needed during the Dot Com Bubble, and they were right. They were also early, and usually it pays to be early in investing, just not when you overpay (as Lynch argued). Only recently, 20 years after that peak, did AMD reach the kind of earnings that its Dot Com pricing implied. Thus, the cardinal sin was rewarding a stock price before a company had actually delivered.With the current peak and that the kind of multiple, one has to wonder if there is this same danger of being too early and at too high of a price. Not only that, one has to wonder if the risk is even greater now.AMD Market Cap (Seeking Alpha)People often consider the stock price history, but I think the history of the market cap is more important because it shows just how much the company has grown (or not grown). While today's peak is only about 4x that of 2000's, the market cap is more than 20x. Today's stock price is for astronomical growth of a much larger company. All else being equal, 2000's price was less risky because there was a least more room to grow, and I think that's another major risk that investors are overlooking.The Indirect Capex of SBCStock-based compensation, or SBC, is a figure that is resolved in the cash flow statement because it is a non-cash item. When calculating free cash flow, we need to know how much cash the company is actually generating, so figures like these get removed.Similarly, since cash spent on buybacks or dividends goes to shareholders, we don't count that like we would capex. Yet, for practical purposes, it may be wise to do so for some companies.Cash Flow Statement (2023 Form 10K)Above I have condensed the 2023 cash flow statement for AMD to make it easier to see the figure for SBC, operating cash flows, capex, and repurchases of common stock. Please note that SBC is well in excess of capex for each of the last three years, that it has been growing, and that about $6.5b was spent in buybacks over the last three years. Some of that sum is effectively a form of capex.Realistically, this makes free cash flow lower by transferring an operating expense (as in, just paying employees more money) to the buybacks (which are in the cash flow statement). Whether this is intentional is unimportant. The impact is the same either way, and it's a subtle detail that investors should know.Most importantly, it suggests that my estimate of FCF of $2b earlier was a bit too high (again, from a practical lens, not how FCF is typically defined). Considering this rising trend of SBC and buybacks during years when the stock is at a high, one has to wonder what a practical estimate is, but it could be a $1b or less. To me, that suggests that AMD's multiple is not only high for the market cap but doubly so for individual shares, magnifying the risk.ConclusionThe parable of the drowning man tells of someone who was trapped in a flood. As the waters rose and rose, forcing him to higher levels of his house, three rescue attempts (usually two boats and a helicopter) were made to him. Each time, he refused help, saying that God would rescue him. After he drowns in the flood, he asks God in Heaven why he didn't save him, and God tells him, \"I sent you two boats and a helicopter.\"In discussions (that I see or where I participate) there is this devotion to an idea of endlessly rising returns, without thought for a fair price based on financial ability. This can be dangerous when the hopeful assumptions baked into a stock price either fail to deliver or take 20 years instead of 5 to do so. 2022 showed what can happen to shares of AMD when a vision is shattered.Folks don't make money buy overpaying for stocks. They also don't make money by holding them forever, however cheaply they got them. They make money by selling and locking in a profit at some point in time. With many rises and falls over its years, investors today are offered an exit price that is over 100x its recent free cash flows. With growth assumptions that may never materialize, limited further by the depletive power of share-based compensation and buybacks, a price around $170 may not come again for a long time. For these reasons, I think it's wise to take the rescue boat and SELL.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274197549871184,"gmtCreate":1707980639776,"gmtModify":1707980644543,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then later they will write the positive articles ab the same stock again[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Then later they will write the positive articles ab the same stock again[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Then later they will write the positive articles ab the same stock again[Speechless] [Speechless] [Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274197549871184","repostId":"2411730416","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2411730416","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1707979747,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2411730416?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-15 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2411730416","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.</p></li><li><p>Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.</p></li><li><p>AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.</p></li><li><p>My target price is $161.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32181a1cf7679ea59ddc25d52008f5\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_354411328\">Introduction</h2><p>Advanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a &#34;Sell&#34; at the current share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3208995006\">Fundamental analysis</h2><p>According to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (&#34;CPUs&#34;), graphic processing units (&#34;GPUs&#34;), accelerated processing units (&#34;APUs&#34;), data processing units (&#34;DPUs&#34;), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (&#34;SoC&#34;) products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (&#34;PCs&#34;), and embedded products.</p><p>AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it&#39;s tempting to credit AMD&#39;s success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su&#39;s visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05af8787f243225ad7269026d5ae953\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it&#39;s crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.</p><p>Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su&#39;s leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel&#39;s cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products&#39; lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD&#39;s gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec02bc91146ec3b4e0ddf41c43f91ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>I believe there&#39;s significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (&#34;AI&#34;) industry. However, as investors, it&#39;s essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company&#39;s exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a89545cfd9ad2bee1c72069ef220ac0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\"/></p><p>tomshardware.com</p><p>The extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company&#39;s revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71456b11d7c2c5e36462a2ca630215cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><p>AMD&#39;s 10-K report FY2023</p><p>Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac5758d1d610884649d5f99c06d69f9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>Some might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA&#39;s market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD&#39;s. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21408cabb7f5434dd81d19a8bc08b6ba\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"236\"/></p><p>Lib Quotes</p><h2 id=\"id_4210092192\">Valuation analysis</h2><p>AMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4626d115d487f26e52cd1d4e87993f18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"/></p><p>SA</p><p>To check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (&#34;TV&#34;) calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ecc9b8ba72807dcb29507bab4d1208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><p>My DCF analysis gives AMD&#39;s fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.</p><p>Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD&#39;s fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0f5651e6f3d319acccb833c17bbe99\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><h2 id=\"id_3051334112\">Mitigating factors</h2><p>While I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.</p><p>Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD&#39;s share price within a short timeframe.</p><p>Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market&#39;s reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.</p><p>Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (&#34;FOMO&#34;) effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.</p><h2 id=\"id_1738166353\">Conclusion</h2><p>While AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a &#34;Sell&#34; rating.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: I Am Not Ready To Pay Premium For The GPU Laggard\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-15 14:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4670076-amd-i-am-not-ready-to-pay-premium-for-the-gpu-laggard","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2411730416","content_text":"AMD is a global semiconductor company offering various products for data centers and personal computers.Under the leadership of CEO Dr. Lisa Su, AMD experienced significant growth, but the last two fiscal years revealed substantial vulnerability to macroeconomic cycles.AMD competes with larger players like Intel and NVIDIA and by far lags behind Nvidia in the GPU industry, limiting its exposure to the AI shift.My target price is $161.Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesIntroductionAdvanced Micro Devices stock has enjoyed massive rallies since the company is widely perceived as one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (\"AI\") revolution. According to my valuation analysis, the massive rally of the last twelve months pushed the stock above its fair price. While I could have opted to pay a significant premium for an undisputed leader in the AI chipmaking market, like NVIDIA (NVDA), I am of the opinion that a company trailing behind, such as AMD, does not merit such a premium valuation. Therefore, I believe that AMD is a \"Sell\" at the current share price.Fundamental analysisAccording to the latest 10-K report, AMD is a global semiconductor company primarily offering server microprocessors (\"CPUs\"), graphic processing units (\"GPUs\"), accelerated processing units (\"APUs\"), data processing units (\"DPUs\"), AI accelerators and adaptive system-on-chip (\"SoC\") products for data centers. The company also provides chipsets for desktops, notebooks, personal computers (\"PCs\"), and embedded products.AMD emerged as a key beneficiary of the rapidly accelerating digital revolution, driving the stock to appreciate by an impressive 4.5 thousand percent over the past decade, yielding an outstanding annualized return of 45% for investors. While it's tempting to credit AMD's success solely to favorable shifts in the microenvironment, it would be remiss not to highlight the exceptional leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Appointed as CEO of AMD a decade ago, Dr. Su's visionary guidance ushered in a new era of prosperity for the company.Data by YChartsUnder Lisa Su's leadership, AMD experienced remarkable growth, with revenue compounding at 20% and operating margins soaring. However, in recent years, the company faced challenges such as revenue pullback and a sharp decline in operating margin, stemming from unfavorable macroeconomic factors like high inflation, swift monetary policy tightening in developed nations, and significant geopolitical disruptions. Although these challenges may seem transient, it's crucial to acknowledge that despite its notable growth over the past decade, the business remains considerably vulnerable to macroenvironmental shifts, indicating a lack of resilience.Furthermore, the CPU and GPU industries are massively competitive. AMD competes with players like NVIDIA and Intel (INTC), which are much larger in terms of revenue. So far, AMD, under Lisa Su's leadership, has been very successful in gaining market share in CPU at Intel's cost, but in a rapidly evolving environment when cutting-edge products' lifecycles are short, there is no guarantee that AMD will be able to consistently sustain its market share while competing with giants like Intel and NVIDIA. In the table below, you can see that in absolute terms, AMD's gross profit is multiple times lower compared to its primary competitors, meaning it has fewer resources to reinvest in business.SAI believe there's significant optimism surrounding AMD, particularly driven by the burgeoning artificial intelligence (\"AI\") industry. However, as investors, it's essential to maintain a level-headed approach and delve deeper into the technological landscape. Historically, AMD has demonstrated strength in CPUs rather than GPUs. Yet, for accelerating computing in AI development, GPUs offer greater capacity and are thus better suited. Unfortunately, in the realm of GPUs, AMD significantly lags behind its competitor, NVDA. Consequently, the company's exposure to the burgeoning AI trend appears to be severely limited, and investors should be aware.tomshardware.comThe extent to which AMD lags behind NVDA is evident in the most recent financial performance. While NVDA is projected by consensus to record a staggering 119% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2024, AMD demonstrated a revenue decline in such a massive year for semiconductor stocks. The company's revenue in the PC segment dropped massively, and the growth in the Data Center segment, which is supposed to absorb AI tailwinds, was very far from offsetting the loss.AMD's 10-K report FY2023Many AMD bulls might say that the company has a more diverse portfolio of offerings and end markets in comparison with NVDA, but it seems that this diversification approach does not work that well for shareholders. While NVDA consensus estimates project a 57% revenue growth for the year, which will end in January 2025 to reach almost $93 billion, AMD is expected to achieve only half of this revenue within the next five years.SASome might argue that the significant disparity in expected revenue growth is already factored into the market capitalization of both companies, given that NVIDIA's market cap is currently approximately six times higher than AMD's. However, as a long-term investor, I prioritize investing in the underlying business rather than merely the stock as an instrument. In this regard, I favor investing in an undisputed market leader over a laggard struggling to drive revenue growth, especially during a year marked by massive AI enthusiasm.Lib QuotesValuation analysisAMD showed a strong start in 2024 with a 16.6% stock price increase. The momentum across different timeframes is robust, as the stock price has doubled over the last 12 months and increased by 50% over the last quarter. The stock is currently very close to all-time highs. The current market cap is $278 billion.SATo check whether the current share price is attractive, I will conduct the discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") analysis with a 9.8% discount rate. As I usually do, I incorporate consensus revenue estimates for the two upcoming fiscal years. For the years after FY 2025, I expect a steady 300 basis points yearly revenue growth deceleration. I use a 9.72% TTM levered FCF margin with the expected 100 basis points yearly expansion. Due to all the AI industry tailwinds, I give AMD a very optimistic 8% constant growth rate for the terminal value (\"TV\") calculation. Currently, there are about 1.6 billion AMD shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorMy DCF analysis gives AMD's fair share price at $162, which is around 6% lower than the current market levels. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the stock is attractively valued. If AMD was the undisputable leader in the GPU market, I would say that the premium is well-deserved, but paying above the fair price for the company, which substantially lags in terms of market share, does not look sound to me.Moreover, it is crucial to highlight that the DCF calculation significantly depends on the terminal value amount, which represents around 90% of the fair share price. That said, decreasing the constant growth rate assumption by a mere 50 basis points decreases AMD's fair share price to $128, which signals a massive 25% overvaluation.Calculated by the authorMitigating factorsWhile I currently hold a bearish outlook on AMD at its present stock price, there are several mitigating factors that could potentially prove me wrong.Firstly, we are currently amidst a period of significant market optimism surrounding the semiconductor industry, largely driven by the rapid expansion of AI technology. As a prominent player in this sector, AMD stands to benefit from this positive sentiment. For instance, the upcoming earnings report from NVDA at the end of February could be a substantial catalyst for all major semiconductor companies, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in AMD's share price within a short timeframe.Secondly, AMD consistently unveils new chips and accelerators, and the market's reaction to these offerings could significantly influence the stock price in the short term. There exists a possibility that AMD might introduce a groundbreaking product that garners widespread acclaim, sparking a notable rally in its stock price.Lastly, the power of momentum cannot be underestimated. With the stock having surged approximately 50% over the last quarter, a significant portion of this rally may have been driven by the fear of missing out (\"FOMO\") effect. In such circumstances, a sell-off in the stock might only occur in the event of a major adverse development for the broader market, such as an unexpectedly weak quarterly report. Given that the next earnings release is still some time away, the momentum behind the stock could persist for the next few months.ConclusionWhile AMD has exposure to the booming AI industry, I think that the market overestimates the extent of this exposure. AMD is not a trendsetter in the industry, and its GPU market share is multiple times lower compared to the industry leader. Therefore, I consider the current 6% premium to the stock price as a good selling opportunity and assign AMD a \"Sell\" rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":272336254423336,"gmtCreate":1707526294803,"gmtModify":1707526298308,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Inverse head &amp; shoulders in 1hrs chart.[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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[Love]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260628553285688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":91,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260628300660912,"gmtCreate":1704640317222,"gmtModify":1704640321756,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[USD] [USD] [USD] [USD] [USD] [USD] [USD] [USD] 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[Spurting] [Spurting] [Spurting] [Spurting] [Spurting] [Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260161678229736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259874504511560,"gmtCreate":1704456386923,"gmtModify":1704461628346,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger with me","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://tigr.link/5QvH1W?utm_source=invite&amp;utm_campaign=20231208151108&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=4f871cc96378b849aa9f60b89382e95b&amp;invite=ED45NG&amp;lang=en_US\">Join Tiger with me</a> Open your account and make your first deposit to unlock free rewards!","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://tigr.link/5QvH1W?utm_source=invite&amp;utm_campaign=20231208151108&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=4f871cc96378b849aa9f60b89382e95b&amp;invite=ED45NG&amp;lang=en_US\">Join Tiger with me</a> Open your account and make your first deposit to unlock free rewards!","text":"Find out more here: Join Tiger with me Open your account and make your first deposit to unlock free 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[Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254699263262968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262523345530968,"gmtCreate":1705126800355,"gmtModify":1705126803597,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/COIN 20240119 160.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 160.0 CALL$</a>[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[What]&nbsp;[What]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/COIN 20240119 160.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 160.0 CALL$</a>[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Tongue]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[What]&nbsp;[What]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$COIN 20240119 160.0 CALL$[Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Happy] [Tongue] [Miser] [Miser] [What] [What]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55532926a2a0cd1d60795476b87e31e3","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262523345530968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342394699612504,"gmtCreate":1724633046579,"gmtModify":1724633051406,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.&nbsp;","listText":"this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.&nbsp;","text":"this kind of article always start to fly ard when stock going to fly . there is no relation between options and price actin.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342394699612504","repostId":"2462626136","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462626136","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724628883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462626136?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 07:34","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462626136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with e","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.</p></li><li><p>Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia&#39;s guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.</p></li><li><p>Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><p>Given its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.</p><p>Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.</p><p>Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.</p><p>Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.</p><h2 id=\"id_3940723290\">Shrinking Upside Surprises</h2><p>The one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts&#39; estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.</p><p>Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts&#39; forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts&#39; estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company&#39;s anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07602f2a5f5ccd39b9292971674fac8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3274521268\">High Levels of Implied Volatility</h2><p>The market seems a bit more uncertain about the company&#39;s results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74311574fd9a1583f6e8b592251d92e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26c2a7f6346ca54a48c96a08eafd430b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_34633815\">Options Dynamics</h2><p>Many call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia&#39;s earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4850df5d32e90376563d084deae548c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>However, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/293b47c4b948562e6fd569ec66c2974b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>In fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d34202f7ffe762651533e7221fada2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>This means that if the stock doesn&#39;t rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.</p><h2 id=\"id_1668259140\">Peak Growth</h2><p>Additionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock&#39;s price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn&#39;t to say that Nvidia&#39;s stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22ab6680222d5273abaa3598effffa71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Perhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.</p><p>But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia May Fail To Live Up To Its Pre-Earnings Hype\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716917-nvidia-may-fail-to-live-up-to-its-pre-earnings-hype","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462626136","content_text":"Nvidia is expected to report strong fiscal second quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenue more than doubling from a year ago.Analysts anticipate high expectations for Nvidia's guidance, with earnings and revenue growth projections for the fiscal third quarter of 2025.Implied volatility levels for Nvidia stock are high, with options dynamics indicating potential resistance at the $130 price level post-earnings.JHVEPhotoGiven its solid results and soaring stock price, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has set a very high bar. That bar could be even higher this quarter because it seems increasingly difficult for the company to surprise investors.Nvidia is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2025 results on August 28th, and analysts expect another robust quarter for the company. Earnings and revenue are expected to more than double versus a year ago, to $0.65 per share on revenue of $28.7 billion.Guidance will be critical because expectations are high, and the market has gotten used to big beats and even stronger guidance. For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, analysts expect earnings growth of 77% to $0.71 per share, on revenue growth of 75.4% to $31.8 billion.Adjusted gross margins are also an important metric, and right now, analysts see fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margins of 75.5% and 75% for the fiscal third quarter.Shrinking Upside SurprisesThe one thing that has been noticeable over the last few quarters is that beat rates have steadily declined. This means that the revenue that Nvidia is reporting is coming in closer to analysts' estimates, meaning the upside surprise is shrinking.Additionally, guidance surprises have also tapered off over the last four quarters. For instance, in the fiscal third quarter of 2024, guidance was 22% higher than analysts' forecast, while guidance last quarter was just 8.5% higher than analysts' estimates. This is a sign that analysts are starting to catch up to the company's anticipated guidance, which sets the bar higher for each quarter and tougher to beat.BloombergHigh Levels of Implied VolatilityThe market seems a bit more uncertain about the company's results this quarter and is pricing in a greater post-earnings move of about 9%. Based on its closing price of $129.37 on August 23, 2024, the stock could trade in a range of $117 to $141.BloombergThis results from very high implied volatility levels for options expiring on August 30. Currently, implied volatility for the $130 calls strike price is running around 100%, and implied volatility is likely to continue to rise as we approach the earnings date on August 28. This is also one reason why Nvidia stock has been unable to breach the $130 level in the past few trading sessions. The gamma level at $130 is very large, and these significant levels of option gamma often serve as support and resistance levels.BloombergOptions DynamicsMany call deltas are built at the $130 price level, which is also currently helping to serve as resistance for the market. These delta and gamma levels are likely to grow larger as we head into Nvidia's earnings due to the rising implied volatility levels. This means that options hedging flows to support the stock and help keep it around $130 in results.BloombergHowever, the significant risk post results is what happens to that implied volatility. Because once the results are released and the event risk passes, the implied volatility will fall dramatically. Historically, implied volatility has been almost cut in half. Because of how option pricing works, once the implied volatility levels fall, both the premiums for puts and calls will drop dramatically, which will reduce the amount of delta and gamma in the market to serve as support and resistance. It will mean that market maker hedging flows will likely need to be reduced, since so much of the positioning currently is in the call options.BloombergIn fact, the current $130 call premium for expiration on August 30 is $6.82 per contract. That means that the stock needs to rise above $136.82 by August 30 for a new buyer of those calls to earn a profit, or roughly 6% from its price on Friday. However, if that implied volatility falls to 50%, the contract becomes worth just $3.61, and when adjusting for time value, the calls become worth just $2.00 per contract.BloombergThis means that if the stock doesn't rise beyond $137 following results, at least based on the current market, the $130 calls will lose a ton of value following the release of the results, no matter how good or how bad the actual report is. That could result in a lot of hedging flows to come for sale. The setup last quarter was very similar, and what saved the stock that time was the 10-for-1 stock split, which helped to provide the fuel needed to push the stock higher.Peak GrowthAdditionally, it is clear that Nvidia has passed its peak revenue growth for this cycle, and historically, the stock's price-to-sales ratio tends to expand and contract with the revenue growth rate. It isn't to say that Nvidia's stock will return to 5 or 6 times forward sales, but it does suggest that the current price-to-sales rate of 21 times over the last twelve months is probably due to come over the next several quarters.BloombergPerhaps the multiple returns to something closer to a sales multiple of closer to 10, but if revenue grows as analysts suggest to around $225 billion, the stock could maintain a market cap close to that approximately $2 trillion region. But much of that will be determined by how fast sales grow in the future.But at this point, the long-term fundamentals of the business probably do not matter much. What appears to matter much more, at least for now, is the momentum behind the stock and, more importantly, the options positioning around the stock. Based on current positioning, Nvidia will need to reverse its current trend and provide a bigger upside surprise on both actual revenue and its guidance to get the stock to the wall of resistance around $130 to $135.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274197549871184,"gmtCreate":1707980639776,"gmtModify":1707980644543,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then later they will write the positive articles ab the same stock again[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;[Speechless]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Then later they will write the positive articles ab the same stock 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lol[Glance]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274301901181144","repostId":"2411108323","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":272336254423336,"gmtCreate":1707526294803,"gmtModify":1707526298308,"author":{"id":"4096011248740260","authorId":"4096011248740260","name":"Nextlevel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3bbef7d0e7c5d2277fdb7a1b70087cd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096011248740260","authorIdStr":"4096011248740260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Inverse head &amp; shoulders in 1hrs chart.[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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