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2023-10-14

Nice

Tesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)

2022-05-06

User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.

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2022-02-24

Great sharing. $tsla

Losing the Mind Behind the Tesla Powerwall Won’t Hurt TSLA Stock

2022-02-05

🧨💣

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?

2022-01-27

@codecenmove to $zil

Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Venture to Wind Down, Sell Assets

2022-01-21

Switch to tsla!

Palantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market

2022-01-04

Remarkable!

Tesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2375871947","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additio","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.</p></li><li><p>Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additional moats in its ancillary industries.</p></li><li><p>They have a history of achieving attractive returns. I believe they will become a long-term compounder.</p></li><li><p>After reviewing their present financials and valuation, I currently rate Tesla stock a Buy.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_284327236\">Thesis</h2><p>A few days ago, I was in a discussion with a friend about his recent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla, Inc.</a> stock acquisition and told him I thought he would likely be quite happy with his purchase a decade from now. When he asked me why, I gave him a brief on two high margin revenue streams that Tesla is in the process of developing. I am detailing the points I made to him in this article.</p><p>As much as I am quite bullish on their long-term prospects, when I wrote my last article on Tesla in April, I was hesitant to place a buy rating because of a combination of their margin contraction caused by price drops and our inverted yield curve. However, with the UAW strike providing significant problems for the Big Three, Tesla&#39;s short and medium term prospects have improved significantly. After reviewing their financials and present valuation, I currently rate TSLA as a Buy.</p><h2 id=\"id_1523361003\">Company Background</h2><p>Tesla produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems. They are a leading developer of self-driving software, and have expanded into machine learning with the development of their own supercomputer called Dojo. They maintain operations in the United States, China, and internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and and is currently headquartered in Austin, Texas.</p><p>Tesla maintains an Automotive segment, and an Energy Generation and Storage segment. Their Automotive segment offers electric vehicles and ancillary products and services. This segment includes their network of Superchargers and service locations, in-app upgrades and mobile services, financing and leasing services, and warranties and extended service plans.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f11caf4cecf2747046aec98ae4c6af65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\"/></p><p>TSLA Automotive Market Share (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 9)</p><p>Their Energy Generation and Storage segment provides photovoltaic generation, storage products, and related services. It maintains a website as well as stores and galleries, and also reaches customers through a network of channel partners. They offer various financing options to their solar customers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805bb136adcb87dd8973826d009888a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"668\"/></p><p>TSLA Energy Storage And Services (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)</p><h2 id=\"id_2603697569\">Long-Term Trends</h2><p>The global electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) market is projected to have a CAGR of 22.1% until 2030. The global autonomous vehicle market is projected to have a CAGR of 35% through 2032. The global electric vehicle charging station market is projected to have a CAGR of 37.7% until 2033. The energy storage market is projected to have a CAGR of 14.31% through 2028. The global photovoltaic market is projected have a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period.</p><h2 id=\"id_1091166465\">The Future Of Self-Driving</h2><p>Tesla is in the process of improving its capabilities on multiple fronts. They have been working toward full self-driving (&#34;FSD&#34;) for many years. As part of this effort, they announced Dojo at their AI Day event on August 19, 2021.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24792668f6b7252a5e3ff7db263f25fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"643\"/></p><p>TSLA Dojo Projections (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)</p><p>As progress continues on establishing superior reliability and safety capabilities, it will eventually become clear that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Once a certain statistical threshold has been met, insurance companies are going to be willing to offer lower rates to drivers who use proven autonomous driving software.</p><p>What I believe frequently gets overlooked is the pressure this will place on entities who operate large fleets of vehicles. They will be financially incentivized to transition to autonomous capable vehicles. While most of the auto industry has been working toward their own versions of autonomous driving, Tesla has a capability lead on most of them. If insurance companies are willing to offer users of Tesla&#39;s software better rates, this will incentivize Tesla&#39;s competition to manufacture vehicles which are capable of running a variety of software packages.</p><p>Their Autopilot has access to more raw data than any of their competitors. This gives them a significant lead on reaching full capability more quickly than any other autonomous driving software provider.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e4a0ee3836625fe05862be235be6d0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p>TSLA Guidance Autopilot (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><p>We could witness an era where it&#39;s common for people to buy a new Ford (F), General Motors (GM), or Stellantis (STLA) vehicle equipped with Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving software. This may also produce an industry of third party entities which convert vehicles to be capable of using Tesla&#39;s software. Eventually, any capability gap should close for those of their competitors who continue developing their own software packages, so this period may only last a few years. However, the trend of vehicles being manufactured with multi-software capability may continue even after the gap closes. Being able to purchase a vehicle capable of using a variety of self-driving software packages may eventually become standard.</p><p>While I am not clear as to when this threshold will be crossed. The idea that Tesla might find themselves with a much larger market for their software than their own vehicles is extremely appealing. The pressure would have to be significant for the other auto manufacturers to make the switch. If the discounts the insurance companies are handing out are not deep enough, we may not see an adoption or we may only experience a partial adoption.</p><h2 id=\"id_766904302\">The Future Of Energy Storage</h2><p>Tesla is well positioned to benefit from ongoing changes in our energy grid. The Levelized Cost of Electricity is the most dominant factor at play when examining long-term energy infrastructure trends.</p><p>When photovoltaics reached the status of our cheapest source of electricity several years ago, additional renewable capacity seems inevitable. However, the adoption of intermittent sources warps the daily supply and demand curve for wholesale electricity. This supply and demand imbalance produced by solar is known as the Duck Curve. Excessive overproduction from solar will damage portions of the grid. This problem is severe enough that it is already common to disconnect portions of commercial scale capacity during the middle of the day. I went into further detail about how this is affecting long-term trends related to our grid in my recent article about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLC.AU\">Fluence</a> Energy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c147776dcc731a995ce851080e42f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><p>The Duck Curve (Brad Bouillon; Stanford University)</p><p>Tesla sits in a unique situation where they are involved in both grid scale storage as well as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In places where a portion of the grid is supplied by photovoltaics, storage providers are able to collect free or almost-free electricity in the middle of the day while the grid is overproducing. This electricity can later be sold back into the market in the evening when they are at their highest.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ac2ebf908cc8379c189eabbedc7ca5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>Wholesale California Electricity Prices Over 24 Hrs. On A Spring Day (Charles W. Forsberg; ResearchGate, May 2020)</p><p>With the electricity collected at no cost, or almost no cost, the margins for such an operation are a function of the sheer volume one can manage divided by the maintenance costs for the batteries. This means that storage providers are incentivized to gain access to as much overproduction as possible. Over the next several decades, I believe the electricity arbitrage industry has the potential to scale with the mass adoption of solar and will become incredibly lucrative. Although it&#39;s still far too early to tell how this situation will develop, Tesla is currently well positioned to become a major player in this emerging industry.</p><p>Their Autobidder continues to find opportunities in Australia, Texas, California, and the UK. The company cites the clear advantages of growing their footprint, as each facility they build is expected to produce revenue for about 20 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f923519b920c1ce932fc27fda75a07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>TSLA Autobidder Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><p>In 2022, their energy generation and storage segment reached 5.4% of total revenues, representing a 90% YoY increase to $1.310 billion, while the cost of revenues stands at $1.151 billion. This gives it a gross margin of 9.26%. According to a September 2023 article, Autobidder has made over $330 million in trading revenues since inception.</p><h2 id=\"id_1793167372\">Guidance</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s most recent earnings call spoke of several long-term projects they have in the works. They covered developments with the Cybertruck, which they plan to launch later this year, and also mentioned continued efforts toward developing a robotaxi. They are pleased about the adoption of the North American Charging Standard. Overall, things have been going well for them in recent months.</p><p>Their forward looking statements indicate that they expect Q3 to have lower revenue due to scheduled upgrades causing down-time through the summer months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b8013f2708a14570db43c0501102e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>TSLA Q3 Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><h2 id=\"id_1301781525\">Annual Financials</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s annual revenue has been growing at an impressive rate. In 2013 they had an annual revenue of $2,013.5M. By 2022, that had grown to $81,462M. This represents a total increase of 3945.8% at an average annual rate of 438.4%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcc482b761f902e3e7c254040e9c8597\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Revenue (By Author)</p><p>Their annual margins have been improving over the last several years. As of the most recent annual report, gross margins were 25.60%, EBITDA margins were 21.41%, operating margins were 16.81%, and net margins were 15.41%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ea2cc4873205f6048d485d7c8c03743\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Margins (By Author)</p><p>Like many growing companies, Tesla has been diluting to help fund expansion. Total common shares outstanding was at 1,846.4M in 2013; by the end of 2022 that rose to 3,164M. This represents a 71.4% rise in share count, which comes out to an average annual rate of 7.93%. Over that same time period, operating income rose from -$61.3M to $13,692M. Because it has come with significant improvements to income, I view this dilution as accretive.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae842b30302928f4ba47f1df6ca3b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)</p><p>Their debt situation has been improving over the last several years. As of the 2022 annual report, they had $106M in net interest expense, total debt was $5,748M, and long-term debt was $1,029M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2a5f6f85100d6fad8fbc763ee28c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Debt (By Author)</p><p>As of this most recent annual report, cash and equivalents was $16,253M, operating income was $13,692M, EBITDA was $17,439M, net income was $12,556M, unlevered free cash flow was $4,327.5M, and levered free cash flow was $4,208.1M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4749ab51b3930ace699aa8fdbc9d3042\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Cash Flow (By Author)</p><p>Their total equity has been growing quite quickly.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7668562728d6b2189d0ea9b36320c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Total Equity (By Author)</p><p>Annual returns have also been improving. As of the most recent annual report ROIC was 24.31%, ROCE was 17.64%, and ROE was at 27.36%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5583fd99045d634b1d656076e1699c03\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Returns (By Author)</p><h2 id=\"id_1822369943\">Quarterly Financials</h2><p>Their quarterly financials are showing significant revenue growth over the last two years. Eight quarters ago Tesla had a quarterly revenue of $11,958M. Four quarters ago that had grown to $16,934M. By this most recent quarter that had grown to $24,927M. This represents a total two-year rise of 108.4% at an average quarterly rate of 13.6%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d5dee77bc7ebd5bff77ffdbff2b891\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Revenue (By Author)</p><p>Their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters. As of the most recent quarter gross margins were 18.19%, EBITDA margins were 14.25%, operating margins were 9.62%, and net margins were at 10.84%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a9552bd4abea5d4eaf5bab00ec6cbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Margins (By Author)</p><p>Their dilution rate appears to have dropped in more recent quarters. The sum of their last eight quarters of dilution comes to 7.32%; over the last four quarters this has dropped to 1.63%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229782b5a1c2946139d72aed133ad813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)</p><p>Their debt situation is improving. This most recent quarter, Tesla had $210M in net interest expense, total debt was at $5811M, and long-term debt was at $504M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f4a8a103bf7e3ca31bf52ce141526\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Debt (By Author)</p><p>Their quarterly cash flow is inconsistent. As of the most recent earnings report, cash and equivalents were $15,296M, quarterly operating income was $2,399M, EBITDA was $3553M, net income was $2,703M, unlevered free cash flow was $894.4M, and levered free cash flow was $876.9M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db4fae5af9d282f20ff6be83fc6eba91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Cash Flow (By Author)</p><p>When viewed on a quarterly basis, their total equity continues to rise.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39348a9bbb1a278da180df079161da78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Total Equity (By Author)</p><p>Their returns are trending in a similar pattern with their margins. As of the most recent earnings report ROIC was 4.66%, ROCE was 2.81%, and ROE was 5.18%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b3a5e5973cf51f1e4bb2acfeef013b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Returns (By Author)</p><h2 id=\"id_3002784039\">Valuation</h2><p>As of October 11th, 2023, Tesla had a market capitalization of $836.73B and traded for $262.99 per share. They do not pay a dividend, so using their forward P/E of 91.03x, and their EPS Long-Term CAGR of 19.72%, I calculated a PEGY of 4.616x and an Inverted PEGY of 0.2166x. As the PEGY value is well above 1, this implies the company is presently significantly overvalued.</p><p>However, TSLA has a history of trading at elevated valuations. They are currently trading with an EV/EBITDA of 48.73x. When viewing their EV/EBITDA over the last 5 years, it&#39;s clear that its present valuation is historically not as overvalued as it has reached in the past.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d884e507e04fa1ef07ee4d2ca9e62583\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>TSLA 5 Year EV/EBITDA (Seeking Alpha)</p><h2 id=\"id_3723830278\">Risks</h2><p>Tesla faces a large number of competitors. A majority of the already established auto manufacturers on the planet are developing or already producing their own EV&#39;s and alternative fuel vehicles. This developing industry has also attracted a significant number of speculative startups. Because of Tesla&#39;s first mover advantage, and the time it will take to develop a viable product from nothing, I expect that the effects of this increasing competitive pressure will come on gradually.</p><p>Autonomous driving may take longer to reach full maturity than they expect. Progress is expected to continue on its logistic growth curve, with most of the easy breakthroughs having already been made. The company already has a viable product, but they need a huge amount of additional data and time to fine tune it and make further safety and reliability improvements. It will likely be difficult to tell when they have actually crossed above the threshold where their FSD software can be called &#34;fully mature.&#34;</p><p>As always with innovators, Tesla runs the risk of overspending to stay relevant. Developing their own hardware and software for machine learning may end up costing more than they expect, or not be as profitable as they project. The push to develop A.I. is spawning development across the industry, and Tesla is merely one of many companies working on their own projects. While I believe the decision to move into machine learning was good for the long-term health of the company, it&#39;s always possible the additional cost of joining the first movers will not be worth the benefits.</p><h2 id=\"id_2771406227\">Catalysts</h2><p>Tesla faces several catalysts, most of which are not near term. Tesla has cut prices several times earlier this year. This should produce additional demand and help them capture market share. Tesla has been normalizing electric vehicle use; at some point we will cross the threshold where it&#39;s more normal culturally to drive an electric or alternative fuel vehicle than a gasoline or diesel.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s overall engineering quality is extremely high. Tesla is several generations into EV development and their design philosophy has them continuously making performance improvements. For a specific example of what I am referencing, YouTube has videos of Sandy Munro comparing the thermal systems of the Mach-E and the Model Y. They are eye-opening.</p><p>As stated above, I believe demand for their FSD software will increase once the insurance providers are willing to offer discounts. Organizations which maintain fleets of vehicles will have to justify not transitioning to the cheaper option. This is likely to affect everyone from car rental companies and taxi services, to government employees and utility vehicles. Demand for FSD may also spur their competition into producing vehicles which are capable of using Tesla&#39;s driverless software.</p><p>Tesla is joining several others in the development of Iron-Air batteries. These types of batteries are significantly cheaper than the Li-ion we are all accustomed to. Tesla already operates a grid scale energy storage facility in Texas. The dramatic cost savings of Iron-Air batteries makes them a disruptive technology. Our electric grid currently requires a significant contribution from base load providers. As we increase its storage capacity, I believe the bargaining power the base load providers currently have will diminish as most of the negotiating power will shift to the storage providers.</p><p>Also, storage providers will experience sustained tailwinds from the continued adoption of solar as they profit from daily arbitrage opportunities. Because of their dramatically lower cost of production, the adoption of iron-air batteries should both lower cost of expansion and improve margins for their energy storage division.</p><p>Tesla achieves rather high margins for a manufacturer. As producers in other industries realize that the reason Tesla is achieving superior margins and return on capital is due to their preference for automated manufacturing, the demand for Tesla-style facilities should rise. The company could eventually open a subsidiary which establishes automated manufacturing facilities for other companies.</p><h2 id=\"id_2355894248\">Conclusions</h2><p>Normally, I refuse to place buy ratings on any company this overvalued. However, I believe the current UAW strike will provide continued tailwinds for Tesla, Inc.&#39;s share price as it continues. Add to this the fact that they have a history of achieving unreasonably high valuations and its present valuation becomes less of a concern. This is one of the few occasions where I am willing to hand out a buy rating on a ticker when I am unable to clearly see that it&#39;s trading below its intrinsic value. I believe Tesla has unrecognized long-term growth potential, so it potentially may have a hidden margin of safety.</p><p>Overall, Tesla, Inc. appears to be an extremely attractive investment because of their culture of adaptation and innovation. While I cannot guarantee that their current endeavors will lead to future moats, they have already established themselves as a premier EV producer and have the potential to find themselves with multiple high margin revenue streams. Although their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters, they have proven they are capable of producing attractive returns.</p><p>I believe Tesla stock is likely to become the long-term compounder that its present investors hope it will be. So even if buying at today&#39;s prices ends up being a lackluster entry in the short or medium term, long-term Tesla, Inc. shareholders are unlikely to be punished for it.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-14 15:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2375871947","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additional moats in its ancillary industries.They have a history of achieving attractive returns. I believe they will become a long-term compounder.After reviewing their present financials and valuation, I currently rate Tesla stock a Buy.ThesisA few days ago, I was in a discussion with a friend about his recent Tesla, Inc. stock acquisition and told him I thought he would likely be quite happy with his purchase a decade from now. When he asked me why, I gave him a brief on two high margin revenue streams that Tesla is in the process of developing. I am detailing the points I made to him in this article.As much as I am quite bullish on their long-term prospects, when I wrote my last article on Tesla in April, I was hesitant to place a buy rating because of a combination of their margin contraction caused by price drops and our inverted yield curve. However, with the UAW strike providing significant problems for the Big Three, Tesla's short and medium term prospects have improved significantly. After reviewing their financials and present valuation, I currently rate TSLA as a Buy.Company BackgroundTesla produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems. They are a leading developer of self-driving software, and have expanded into machine learning with the development of their own supercomputer called Dojo. They maintain operations in the United States, China, and internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and and is currently headquartered in Austin, Texas.Tesla maintains an Automotive segment, and an Energy Generation and Storage segment. Their Automotive segment offers electric vehicles and ancillary products and services. This segment includes their network of Superchargers and service locations, in-app upgrades and mobile services, financing and leasing services, and warranties and extended service plans.TSLA Automotive Market Share (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 9)Their Energy Generation and Storage segment provides photovoltaic generation, storage products, and related services. It maintains a website as well as stores and galleries, and also reaches customers through a network of channel partners. They offer various financing options to their solar customers.TSLA Energy Storage And Services (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)Long-Term TrendsThe global electric vehicle (\"EV\") market is projected to have a CAGR of 22.1% until 2030. The global autonomous vehicle market is projected to have a CAGR of 35% through 2032. The global electric vehicle charging station market is projected to have a CAGR of 37.7% until 2033. The energy storage market is projected to have a CAGR of 14.31% through 2028. The global photovoltaic market is projected have a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period.The Future Of Self-DrivingTesla is in the process of improving its capabilities on multiple fronts. They have been working toward full self-driving (\"FSD\") for many years. As part of this effort, they announced Dojo at their AI Day event on August 19, 2021.TSLA Dojo Projections (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)As progress continues on establishing superior reliability and safety capabilities, it will eventually become clear that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Once a certain statistical threshold has been met, insurance companies are going to be willing to offer lower rates to drivers who use proven autonomous driving software.What I believe frequently gets overlooked is the pressure this will place on entities who operate large fleets of vehicles. They will be financially incentivized to transition to autonomous capable vehicles. While most of the auto industry has been working toward their own versions of autonomous driving, Tesla has a capability lead on most of them. If insurance companies are willing to offer users of Tesla's software better rates, this will incentivize Tesla's competition to manufacture vehicles which are capable of running a variety of software packages.Their Autopilot has access to more raw data than any of their competitors. This gives them a significant lead on reaching full capability more quickly than any other autonomous driving software provider.TSLA Guidance Autopilot (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)We could witness an era where it's common for people to buy a new Ford (F), General Motors (GM), or Stellantis (STLA) vehicle equipped with Tesla's autonomous driving software. This may also produce an industry of third party entities which convert vehicles to be capable of using Tesla's software. Eventually, any capability gap should close for those of their competitors who continue developing their own software packages, so this period may only last a few years. However, the trend of vehicles being manufactured with multi-software capability may continue even after the gap closes. Being able to purchase a vehicle capable of using a variety of self-driving software packages may eventually become standard.While I am not clear as to when this threshold will be crossed. The idea that Tesla might find themselves with a much larger market for their software than their own vehicles is extremely appealing. The pressure would have to be significant for the other auto manufacturers to make the switch. If the discounts the insurance companies are handing out are not deep enough, we may not see an adoption or we may only experience a partial adoption.The Future Of Energy StorageTesla is well positioned to benefit from ongoing changes in our energy grid. The Levelized Cost of Electricity is the most dominant factor at play when examining long-term energy infrastructure trends.When photovoltaics reached the status of our cheapest source of electricity several years ago, additional renewable capacity seems inevitable. However, the adoption of intermittent sources warps the daily supply and demand curve for wholesale electricity. This supply and demand imbalance produced by solar is known as the Duck Curve. Excessive overproduction from solar will damage portions of the grid. This problem is severe enough that it is already common to disconnect portions of commercial scale capacity during the middle of the day. I went into further detail about how this is affecting long-term trends related to our grid in my recent article about Fluence Energy.The Duck Curve (Brad Bouillon; Stanford University)Tesla sits in a unique situation where they are involved in both grid scale storage as well as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In places where a portion of the grid is supplied by photovoltaics, storage providers are able to collect free or almost-free electricity in the middle of the day while the grid is overproducing. This electricity can later be sold back into the market in the evening when they are at their highest.Wholesale California Electricity Prices Over 24 Hrs. On A Spring Day (Charles W. Forsberg; ResearchGate, May 2020)With the electricity collected at no cost, or almost no cost, the margins for such an operation are a function of the sheer volume one can manage divided by the maintenance costs for the batteries. This means that storage providers are incentivized to gain access to as much overproduction as possible. Over the next several decades, I believe the electricity arbitrage industry has the potential to scale with the mass adoption of solar and will become incredibly lucrative. Although it's still far too early to tell how this situation will develop, Tesla is currently well positioned to become a major player in this emerging industry.Their Autobidder continues to find opportunities in Australia, Texas, California, and the UK. The company cites the clear advantages of growing their footprint, as each facility they build is expected to produce revenue for about 20 years.TSLA Autobidder Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)In 2022, their energy generation and storage segment reached 5.4% of total revenues, representing a 90% YoY increase to $1.310 billion, while the cost of revenues stands at $1.151 billion. This gives it a gross margin of 9.26%. According to a September 2023 article, Autobidder has made over $330 million in trading revenues since inception.GuidanceTesla's most recent earnings call spoke of several long-term projects they have in the works. They covered developments with the Cybertruck, which they plan to launch later this year, and also mentioned continued efforts toward developing a robotaxi. They are pleased about the adoption of the North American Charging Standard. Overall, things have been going well for them in recent months.Their forward looking statements indicate that they expect Q3 to have lower revenue due to scheduled upgrades causing down-time through the summer months.TSLA Q3 Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)Annual FinancialsTesla's annual revenue has been growing at an impressive rate. In 2013 they had an annual revenue of $2,013.5M. By 2022, that had grown to $81,462M. This represents a total increase of 3945.8% at an average annual rate of 438.4%.TSLA Annual Revenue (By Author)Their annual margins have been improving over the last several years. As of the most recent annual report, gross margins were 25.60%, EBITDA margins were 21.41%, operating margins were 16.81%, and net margins were 15.41%.TSLA Annual Margins (By Author)Like many growing companies, Tesla has been diluting to help fund expansion. Total common shares outstanding was at 1,846.4M in 2013; by the end of 2022 that rose to 3,164M. This represents a 71.4% rise in share count, which comes out to an average annual rate of 7.93%. Over that same time period, operating income rose from -$61.3M to $13,692M. Because it has come with significant improvements to income, I view this dilution as accretive.TSLA Annual Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)Their debt situation has been improving over the last several years. As of the 2022 annual report, they had $106M in net interest expense, total debt was $5,748M, and long-term debt was $1,029M.TSLA Annual Debt (By Author)As of this most recent annual report, cash and equivalents was $16,253M, operating income was $13,692M, EBITDA was $17,439M, net income was $12,556M, unlevered free cash flow was $4,327.5M, and levered free cash flow was $4,208.1M.TSLA Annual Cash Flow (By Author)Their total equity has been growing quite quickly.TSLA Annual Total Equity (By Author)Annual returns have also been improving. As of the most recent annual report ROIC was 24.31%, ROCE was 17.64%, and ROE was at 27.36%.TSLA Annual Returns (By Author)Quarterly FinancialsTheir quarterly financials are showing significant revenue growth over the last two years. Eight quarters ago Tesla had a quarterly revenue of $11,958M. Four quarters ago that had grown to $16,934M. By this most recent quarter that had grown to $24,927M. This represents a total two-year rise of 108.4% at an average quarterly rate of 13.6%.TSLA Quarterly Revenue (By Author)Their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters. As of the most recent quarter gross margins were 18.19%, EBITDA margins were 14.25%, operating margins were 9.62%, and net margins were at 10.84%.TSLA Quarterly Margins (By Author)Their dilution rate appears to have dropped in more recent quarters. The sum of their last eight quarters of dilution comes to 7.32%; over the last four quarters this has dropped to 1.63%.TSLA Quarterly Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)Their debt situation is improving. This most recent quarter, Tesla had $210M in net interest expense, total debt was at $5811M, and long-term debt was at $504M.TSLA Quarterly Debt (By Author)Their quarterly cash flow is inconsistent. As of the most recent earnings report, cash and equivalents were $15,296M, quarterly operating income was $2,399M, EBITDA was $3553M, net income was $2,703M, unlevered free cash flow was $894.4M, and levered free cash flow was $876.9M.TSLA Quarterly Cash Flow (By Author)When viewed on a quarterly basis, their total equity continues to rise.TSLA Quarterly Total Equity (By Author)Their returns are trending in a similar pattern with their margins. As of the most recent earnings report ROIC was 4.66%, ROCE was 2.81%, and ROE was 5.18%.TSLA Quarterly Returns (By Author)ValuationAs of October 11th, 2023, Tesla had a market capitalization of $836.73B and traded for $262.99 per share. They do not pay a dividend, so using their forward P/E of 91.03x, and their EPS Long-Term CAGR of 19.72%, I calculated a PEGY of 4.616x and an Inverted PEGY of 0.2166x. As the PEGY value is well above 1, this implies the company is presently significantly overvalued.However, TSLA has a history of trading at elevated valuations. They are currently trading with an EV/EBITDA of 48.73x. When viewing their EV/EBITDA over the last 5 years, it's clear that its present valuation is historically not as overvalued as it has reached in the past.TSLA 5 Year EV/EBITDA (Seeking Alpha)RisksTesla faces a large number of competitors. A majority of the already established auto manufacturers on the planet are developing or already producing their own EV's and alternative fuel vehicles. This developing industry has also attracted a significant number of speculative startups. Because of Tesla's first mover advantage, and the time it will take to develop a viable product from nothing, I expect that the effects of this increasing competitive pressure will come on gradually.Autonomous driving may take longer to reach full maturity than they expect. Progress is expected to continue on its logistic growth curve, with most of the easy breakthroughs having already been made. The company already has a viable product, but they need a huge amount of additional data and time to fine tune it and make further safety and reliability improvements. It will likely be difficult to tell when they have actually crossed above the threshold where their FSD software can be called \"fully mature.\"As always with innovators, Tesla runs the risk of overspending to stay relevant. Developing their own hardware and software for machine learning may end up costing more than they expect, or not be as profitable as they project. The push to develop A.I. is spawning development across the industry, and Tesla is merely one of many companies working on their own projects. While I believe the decision to move into machine learning was good for the long-term health of the company, it's always possible the additional cost of joining the first movers will not be worth the benefits.CatalystsTesla faces several catalysts, most of which are not near term. Tesla has cut prices several times earlier this year. This should produce additional demand and help them capture market share. Tesla has been normalizing electric vehicle use; at some point we will cross the threshold where it's more normal culturally to drive an electric or alternative fuel vehicle than a gasoline or diesel.Tesla's overall engineering quality is extremely high. Tesla is several generations into EV development and their design philosophy has them continuously making performance improvements. For a specific example of what I am referencing, YouTube has videos of Sandy Munro comparing the thermal systems of the Mach-E and the Model Y. They are eye-opening.As stated above, I believe demand for their FSD software will increase once the insurance providers are willing to offer discounts. Organizations which maintain fleets of vehicles will have to justify not transitioning to the cheaper option. This is likely to affect everyone from car rental companies and taxi services, to government employees and utility vehicles. Demand for FSD may also spur their competition into producing vehicles which are capable of using Tesla's driverless software.Tesla is joining several others in the development of Iron-Air batteries. These types of batteries are significantly cheaper than the Li-ion we are all accustomed to. Tesla already operates a grid scale energy storage facility in Texas. The dramatic cost savings of Iron-Air batteries makes them a disruptive technology. Our electric grid currently requires a significant contribution from base load providers. As we increase its storage capacity, I believe the bargaining power the base load providers currently have will diminish as most of the negotiating power will shift to the storage providers.Also, storage providers will experience sustained tailwinds from the continued adoption of solar as they profit from daily arbitrage opportunities. Because of their dramatically lower cost of production, the adoption of iron-air batteries should both lower cost of expansion and improve margins for their energy storage division.Tesla achieves rather high margins for a manufacturer. As producers in other industries realize that the reason Tesla is achieving superior margins and return on capital is due to their preference for automated manufacturing, the demand for Tesla-style facilities should rise. The company could eventually open a subsidiary which establishes automated manufacturing facilities for other companies.ConclusionsNormally, I refuse to place buy ratings on any company this overvalued. However, I believe the current UAW strike will provide continued tailwinds for Tesla, Inc.'s share price as it continues. Add to this the fact that they have a history of achieving unreasonably high valuations and its present valuation becomes less of a concern. This is one of the few occasions where I am willing to hand out a buy rating on a ticker when I am unable to clearly see that it's trading below its intrinsic value. I believe Tesla has unrecognized long-term growth potential, so it potentially may have a hidden margin of safety.Overall, Tesla, Inc. appears to be an extremely attractive investment because of their culture of adaptation and innovation. While I cannot guarantee that their current endeavors will lead to future moats, they have already established themselves as a premier EV producer and have the potential to find themselves with multiple high margin revenue streams. Although their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters, they have proven they are capable of producing attractive returns.I believe Tesla stock is likely to become the long-term compounder that its present investors hope it will be. So even if buying at today's prices ends up being a lackluster entry in the short or medium term, long-term Tesla, Inc. shareholders are unlikely to be punished for it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068202770,"gmtCreate":1651768305091,"gmtModify":1676534966102,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.&nbsp;","listText":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.&nbsp;","text":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068202770","repostId":"2233602897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030831592,"gmtCreate":1645675747594,"gmtModify":1676534052595,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great sharing. $tsla","listText":"Great sharing. $tsla","text":"Great sharing. $tsla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030831592","repostId":"1192127616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192127616","pubTimestamp":1645671395,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192127616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-24 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Losing the Mind Behind the Tesla Powerwall Won’t Hurt TSLA Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192127616","media":"investorplace","summary":"As another difficult day for financial markets winds to a close,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is finishin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As another difficult day for financial markets winds to a close,<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is finishing in the red yet again. Theelectric vehicle(EV) producer has been forced to weather the current storm which has been caused in part by the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.</p><p>Like many of its peers, TSLA stock has been struggling today. However, although the company announced some bad news, investors shouldn’t be concerned in the long run.</p><p>Here’s what investors should know about Tesla moving forward.</p><p><b>What’s Happening with TSLA Stock</b></p><p>Today marked a continuation of TSLA stock’s losing streak. Shares began falling after markets opened this morning and proved unable to rebound. As of this writing, the stock is down 7% for the day.</p><p>That isn’t the only recent bad news for the company, though. Specifically,<i>Electrek</i>reportsthat Brian Dow, Tesla’s Director of Engineering, is leaving the company to take a position at <b>Generac</b> (NYSE:<b><u>GNRC</u></b>). The company is a leading producer of energy storage solutions.</p><p>Still, while this isn’t great news for Tesla, it also isn’t a reason for investors to panic.</p><p><b>Why It Matters</b></p><p>It makes sense that a company like Generac would want to poach a leader like Brian Dow. Having been at Tesla for more than five years, Dow has played a significant role in the company’s recent growth. Tesla is known as an EV producer, but it has also been gaining a foothold in the field of energy storage solutions. This is exactly the market in which Generac is a dominant player.</p><p>Generac’s primary interest in Dow seems to lie in a desire to rival the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system created to eliminate the standard backup generator. According to Tesla’s website, the device“detects outages and automatically recharges with sunlight.”</p><p>This type of device gives us a good look into the future of home energy storage. Specifically, it looks sleek and refined and recharges using renewable solar energy. Generac is making clear moves to adapt and not be outdone by Tesla. However, the company should note that Tesla has the same advantage it brought to the EV race.</p><p><b>What It Means for Tesla</b></p><p>People may not think of energy storage when they think of Tesla. When they do, though, they think of the Powerwall. Tesla was the first company to bring such a device into the mainstream, showing consumers how they could power their homes in the future. Consumers will likely also be most familiar with the Powerwall moving forward.</p><p>It’s for this reason that, even if Generac is able to engineer their own rival to the Powerwall soon, it shouldn’t harm TSLA stock too much. Competition from EV producers is increasing all the time, but Tesla remains themost searchedEV brand because it showed consumers the future of transportation. Plus, energy storage isn’t Tesla’s primary function as a company. So, even if it did lose a substantial piece of market share, stock prices shouldn’t suffer any permanent damage.</p><p>Most stocks are struggling right now. However, when geopolitical tensions ease, TSLA stock should pull back into the green.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Losing the Mind Behind the Tesla Powerwall Won’t Hurt TSLA Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLosing the Mind Behind the Tesla Powerwall Won’t Hurt TSLA Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-24 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/losing-the-mind-behind-the-tesla-powerwall-wont-hurt-tsla-stock/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As another difficult day for financial markets winds to a close,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is finishing in the red yet again. Theelectric vehicle(EV) producer has been forced to weather the current ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/losing-the-mind-behind-the-tesla-powerwall-wont-hurt-tsla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/losing-the-mind-behind-the-tesla-powerwall-wont-hurt-tsla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192127616","content_text":"As another difficult day for financial markets winds to a close,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is finishing in the red yet again. Theelectric vehicle(EV) producer has been forced to weather the current storm which has been caused in part by the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Like many of its peers, TSLA stock has been struggling today. However, although the company announced some bad news, investors shouldn’t be concerned in the long run.Here’s what investors should know about Tesla moving forward.What’s Happening with TSLA StockToday marked a continuation of TSLA stock’s losing streak. Shares began falling after markets opened this morning and proved unable to rebound. As of this writing, the stock is down 7% for the day.That isn’t the only recent bad news for the company, though. Specifically,Electrekreportsthat Brian Dow, Tesla’s Director of Engineering, is leaving the company to take a position at Generac (NYSE:GNRC). The company is a leading producer of energy storage solutions.Still, while this isn’t great news for Tesla, it also isn’t a reason for investors to panic.Why It MattersIt makes sense that a company like Generac would want to poach a leader like Brian Dow. Having been at Tesla for more than five years, Dow has played a significant role in the company’s recent growth. Tesla is known as an EV producer, but it has also been gaining a foothold in the field of energy storage solutions. This is exactly the market in which Generac is a dominant player.Generac’s primary interest in Dow seems to lie in a desire to rival the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system created to eliminate the standard backup generator. According to Tesla’s website, the device“detects outages and automatically recharges with sunlight.”This type of device gives us a good look into the future of home energy storage. Specifically, it looks sleek and refined and recharges using renewable solar energy. Generac is making clear moves to adapt and not be outdone by Tesla. However, the company should note that Tesla has the same advantage it brought to the EV race.What It Means for TeslaPeople may not think of energy storage when they think of Tesla. When they do, though, they think of the Powerwall. Tesla was the first company to bring such a device into the mainstream, showing consumers how they could power their homes in the future. Consumers will likely also be most familiar with the Powerwall moving forward.It’s for this reason that, even if Generac is able to engineer their own rival to the Powerwall soon, it shouldn’t harm TSLA stock too much. Competition from EV producers is increasing all the time, but Tesla remains themost searchedEV brand because it showed consumers the future of transportation. Plus, energy storage isn’t Tesla’s primary function as a company. So, even if it did lose a substantial piece of market share, stock prices shouldn’t suffer any permanent damage.Most stocks are struggling right now. However, when geopolitical tensions ease, TSLA stock should pull back into the green.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098838835,"gmtCreate":1644075310228,"gmtModify":1676533888139,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧨💣","listText":"🧨💣","text":"🧨💣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098838835","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090798747,"gmtCreate":1643259215133,"gmtModify":1676533791627,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4096608787891490\">@codecen</a>move to $zil","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4096608787891490\">@codecen</a>move to $zil","text":"@codecenmove to $zil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090798747","repostId":"2206720890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206720890","pubTimestamp":1643254111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2206720890?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-27 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Venture to Wind Down, Sell Assets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206720890","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Diem Association is selling its technology to crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital for $200 millio","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Diem Association is selling its technology to crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital for $200 million</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de40f4edd1bc810cd0338a55c47ddcc1\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"573\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Facebook, now known as Meta Platforms, launched its cryptocurrency project in 2019 and almost immediately ran into resistance in Washington.</span></p><p>Facebook’s ambitious effort to bring cryptocurrency to the masses has failed.</p><p>The Diem Association, the consortium Facebook founded in 2019 to build a futuristic payments network, is winding down and selling its technology to a small California bank that serves bitcoin and blockchain companies for about $200 million, a person familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The bank,Silvergate Capita lCorp., had earlier reached a deal with Diem to issue some of the stablecoins—which are backed by hard dollars and designed to be less volatile than bitcoin and other digital currencies—that were at the heart of the effort.</p><p>The sale represents an effort to squeeze some remaining value from a venture that was challenged almost from the start. Facebook, now Meta Platforms Inc.,launched the project in 2019 as Libra, pitching it as a way for the social network’s billions of users to spend money as easily as sending a text message.</p><p>Bloomberg earlier reported that Diem was considering selling its assets.</p><p>Libra brought on well-known partners in e-commerce and payments including PayPal Holdings Inc.,Visa Inc. and Stripe Inc.— in part to signal buy-in from the finance industry and in part to distance the project from Facebook itself, which was under pressure about policing its platform. Partners agreed to join the Libra Association, a Switzerland-based group that would govern the stablecoin, and pony up millions of dollars each to develop the project.</p><p>But it almost immediately ran into resistance in Washington. Officials voiced concerns about its effect on financial stability and data privacy and worried Libra could be misused by money launderers and terrorist financiers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had serious concerns. Early backers dropped out, and Mark Zuckerberg was called before Congress,where he defended Facebook’s plan to bring financial services to the world’s underbanked.</p><p>In 2020, the group recruited Stuart Levey, a former U.S. Treasury official and top lawyer at HSBC Holdings PLC,as chief executive and ditched the Libra name in favor of Diem.</p><p>The stablecoin deal with Silvergate was part of a revamp last year meant to appease regulators.</p><p>David Marcus, the Meta executive who oversaw the launch of what would become Diem, left the company last year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Venture to Wind Down, Sell Assets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook’s Cryptocurrency Venture to Wind Down, Sell Assets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-27 11:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebooks-cryptocurrency-venture-to-wind-down-sell-assets-11643248799?mod=hp_lead_pos5><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Diem Association is selling its technology to crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital for $200 millionFacebook, now known as Meta Platforms, launched its cryptocurrency project in 2019 and almost ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebooks-cryptocurrency-venture-to-wind-down-sell-assets-11643248799?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","METV":"Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebooks-cryptocurrency-venture-to-wind-down-sell-assets-11643248799?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206720890","content_text":"Diem Association is selling its technology to crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital for $200 millionFacebook, now known as Meta Platforms, launched its cryptocurrency project in 2019 and almost immediately ran into resistance in Washington.Facebook’s ambitious effort to bring cryptocurrency to the masses has failed.The Diem Association, the consortium Facebook founded in 2019 to build a futuristic payments network, is winding down and selling its technology to a small California bank that serves bitcoin and blockchain companies for about $200 million, a person familiar with the matter said.The bank,Silvergate Capita lCorp., had earlier reached a deal with Diem to issue some of the stablecoins—which are backed by hard dollars and designed to be less volatile than bitcoin and other digital currencies—that were at the heart of the effort.The sale represents an effort to squeeze some remaining value from a venture that was challenged almost from the start. Facebook, now Meta Platforms Inc.,launched the project in 2019 as Libra, pitching it as a way for the social network’s billions of users to spend money as easily as sending a text message.Bloomberg earlier reported that Diem was considering selling its assets.Libra brought on well-known partners in e-commerce and payments including PayPal Holdings Inc.,Visa Inc. and Stripe Inc.— in part to signal buy-in from the finance industry and in part to distance the project from Facebook itself, which was under pressure about policing its platform. Partners agreed to join the Libra Association, a Switzerland-based group that would govern the stablecoin, and pony up millions of dollars each to develop the project.But it almost immediately ran into resistance in Washington. Officials voiced concerns about its effect on financial stability and data privacy and worried Libra could be misused by money launderers and terrorist financiers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had serious concerns. Early backers dropped out, and Mark Zuckerberg was called before Congress,where he defended Facebook’s plan to bring financial services to the world’s underbanked.In 2020, the group recruited Stuart Levey, a former U.S. Treasury official and top lawyer at HSBC Holdings PLC,as chief executive and ditched the Libra name in favor of Diem.The stablecoin deal with Silvergate was part of a revamp last year meant to appease regulators.David Marcus, the Meta executive who oversaw the launch of what would become Diem, left the company last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007324466,"gmtCreate":1642778738193,"gmtModify":1676533745762,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Switch to tsla!","listText":"Switch to tsla!","text":"Switch to tsla!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007324466","repostId":"1104201332","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104201332","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642777462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104201332?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-21 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104201332","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9861f1ab58b1f7c20496bae358ff7f9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-21 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9861f1ab58b1f7c20496bae358ff7f9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c13588f559343a96ce06d72d3cf4d5","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104201332","content_text":"Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001709577,"gmtCreate":1641310404520,"gmtModify":1676533596423,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Remarkable!&nbsp;","listText":"Remarkable!&nbsp;","text":"Remarkable!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001709577","repostId":"1102940638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102940638","pubTimestamp":1641254417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102940638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 08:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102940638","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worl","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a year</li><li>Company delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarter</li></ul><p>Tesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car maker smashed its quarterly record for deliveries in what one analyst called a “trophy-case” performance.</p><p>The company’s shares jumped 14% in New York, their biggest gain since March and best start to a year since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. The $144 billion in market value that Tesla added on Monday is the equivalent of an entire Honeywell International Inc. or Starbucks Corp. It’s also more than the value of almost 90% of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98c9fe43c27a22e44f07c72304c2671\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Worldwide deliveries totaled 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the average analyst estimate of roughly 263,000 vehicles, and topping the company’s previous record of 241,300 from the prior quarter. Annual handovers surged to more than 936,000 in 2021, up 87% from the previous year’s level, Austin, Texas-based Tesla said Sunday.</p><p>“This is a trophy-case quarter for Tesla as the company blew away even bull-case expectations,” Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an email. He called it a “jaw-dropper performance” for the end of the year that gives “massive tailwinds” heading into 2022.</p><p>The record quarter underscores the “green tidal wave taking hold” for Tesla and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, Ives said in a note to clients. The results also point to robust demand in China and Tesla’s skill at navigating the global semiconductor shortage, he said.</p><p>Musk, who has pledged delivery growth despite the “supply-chain nightmare” of 2021, praised his crew on Twitter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8ecf3d5f76e1a511459de02365693c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Quarterly deliveries are one of the most closely watched indicators for Tesla. They underpin its financial results and are widely seen as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as a whole because the company has led the charge for battery-powered cars.</p><p>Tesla has said repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multiyear period. The seventh consecutive quarterly gain comes amid a global semiconductor slump that has crimped production at most other automakers and kept sales in check despite rising demand.</p><p>“Tesla continues to execute well, posting deliveries and production above consensus expectations,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said. “As the competition heats up from incumbent OEMs and new entrants alike, we see 2022 becoming a critical year for Tesla.”</p><p>The EV market leader’s stock soared almost 50% in 2021 to give it a market valuation exceeding $1 trillion -- one of only a handful of U.S.-based public companies to achieve that status.</p><p>The shares reached a record high in early November before plunging after Musk began unloading 10% of his stake.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1195533166\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elon Musk’s Fortune Climbs $30 Billion on Tesla’s Record Quarter for Deliveries</b></a><b></b></p><p>Elon Musk started 2022 with a bang.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb18462e67b743b94632bf0093ff927\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Inc. reported it had smashed its previous record for vehicle deliveries, spurring a rally in the electric car-maker’s shares and creating one of the biggest one-day jumps in wealth.</p><p>Musk’s fortune jumped by $33.8 billion on Monday to $304.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Jeff Bezos, second on the list, has a $196 billion fortune.</p><p>Tesla’s shares rose 13.5% to $1,199.78 on Monday after fourth-quarter results handily exceeded analysts’ estimates for auto deliveries.</p><p>The company’s market valuation jumped back above $1 trillion last month after a dip in November and early December.</p><p>Musk, who owns about 18% of Tesla, helped trigger the slide when he said he would reduce his stake in the company by 10%. He’ssoldmore than $10 billion worth of shares since November, part of a plan to generate cash to pay tax obligations.</p><p>Musk’s net worth, which also includes his stake in rocket manufacterer SpaceX, reached a high of $340 billion last year, surpassing the peak inflation-adjusted net worth of John D. Rockefeller and briefly making him the richest person in modern history.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-04 08:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarterTesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102940638","content_text":"Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarterTesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car maker smashed its quarterly record for deliveries in what one analyst called a “trophy-case” performance.The company’s shares jumped 14% in New York, their biggest gain since March and best start to a year since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. The $144 billion in market value that Tesla added on Monday is the equivalent of an entire Honeywell International Inc. or Starbucks Corp. It’s also more than the value of almost 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index.Worldwide deliveries totaled 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the average analyst estimate of roughly 263,000 vehicles, and topping the company’s previous record of 241,300 from the prior quarter. Annual handovers surged to more than 936,000 in 2021, up 87% from the previous year’s level, Austin, Texas-based Tesla said Sunday.“This is a trophy-case quarter for Tesla as the company blew away even bull-case expectations,” Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an email. He called it a “jaw-dropper performance” for the end of the year that gives “massive tailwinds” heading into 2022.The record quarter underscores the “green tidal wave taking hold” for Tesla and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, Ives said in a note to clients. The results also point to robust demand in China and Tesla’s skill at navigating the global semiconductor shortage, he said.Musk, who has pledged delivery growth despite the “supply-chain nightmare” of 2021, praised his crew on Twitter.Quarterly deliveries are one of the most closely watched indicators for Tesla. They underpin its financial results and are widely seen as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as a whole because the company has led the charge for battery-powered cars.Tesla has said repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multiyear period. The seventh consecutive quarterly gain comes amid a global semiconductor slump that has crimped production at most other automakers and kept sales in check despite rising demand.“Tesla continues to execute well, posting deliveries and production above consensus expectations,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said. “As the competition heats up from incumbent OEMs and new entrants alike, we see 2022 becoming a critical year for Tesla.”The EV market leader’s stock soared almost 50% in 2021 to give it a market valuation exceeding $1 trillion -- one of only a handful of U.S.-based public companies to achieve that status.The shares reached a record high in early November before plunging after Musk began unloading 10% of his stake.Elon Musk’s Fortune Climbs $30 Billion on Tesla’s Record Quarter for DeliveriesElon Musk started 2022 with a bang.Tesla Inc. reported it had smashed its previous record for vehicle deliveries, spurring a rally in the electric car-maker’s shares and creating one of the biggest one-day jumps in wealth.Musk’s fortune jumped by $33.8 billion on Monday to $304.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Jeff Bezos, second on the list, has a $196 billion fortune.Tesla’s shares rose 13.5% to $1,199.78 on Monday after fourth-quarter results handily exceeded analysts’ estimates for auto deliveries.The company’s market valuation jumped back above $1 trillion last month after a dip in November and early December.Musk, who owns about 18% of Tesla, helped trigger the slide when he said he would reduce his stake in the company by 10%. He’ssoldmore than $10 billion worth of shares since November, part of a plan to generate cash to pay tax obligations.Musk’s net worth, which also includes his stake in rocket manufacterer SpaceX, reached a high of $340 billion last year, surpassing the peak inflation-adjusted net worth of John D. Rockefeller and briefly making him the richest person in modern history.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":230360023707704,"gmtCreate":1697282027139,"gmtModify":1697282031354,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/230360023707704","repostId":"2375871947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2375871947","pubTimestamp":1697269345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2375871947?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-10-14 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2375871947","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additio","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.</p></li><li><p>Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additional moats in its ancillary industries.</p></li><li><p>They have a history of achieving attractive returns. I believe they will become a long-term compounder.</p></li><li><p>After reviewing their present financials and valuation, I currently rate Tesla stock a Buy.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_284327236\">Thesis</h2><p>A few days ago, I was in a discussion with a friend about his recent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla, Inc.</a> stock acquisition and told him I thought he would likely be quite happy with his purchase a decade from now. When he asked me why, I gave him a brief on two high margin revenue streams that Tesla is in the process of developing. I am detailing the points I made to him in this article.</p><p>As much as I am quite bullish on their long-term prospects, when I wrote my last article on Tesla in April, I was hesitant to place a buy rating because of a combination of their margin contraction caused by price drops and our inverted yield curve. However, with the UAW strike providing significant problems for the Big Three, Tesla&#39;s short and medium term prospects have improved significantly. After reviewing their financials and present valuation, I currently rate TSLA as a Buy.</p><h2 id=\"id_1523361003\">Company Background</h2><p>Tesla produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems. They are a leading developer of self-driving software, and have expanded into machine learning with the development of their own supercomputer called Dojo. They maintain operations in the United States, China, and internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and and is currently headquartered in Austin, Texas.</p><p>Tesla maintains an Automotive segment, and an Energy Generation and Storage segment. Their Automotive segment offers electric vehicles and ancillary products and services. This segment includes their network of Superchargers and service locations, in-app upgrades and mobile services, financing and leasing services, and warranties and extended service plans.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f11caf4cecf2747046aec98ae4c6af65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\"/></p><p>TSLA Automotive Market Share (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 9)</p><p>Their Energy Generation and Storage segment provides photovoltaic generation, storage products, and related services. It maintains a website as well as stores and galleries, and also reaches customers through a network of channel partners. They offer various financing options to their solar customers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805bb136adcb87dd8973826d009888a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"668\"/></p><p>TSLA Energy Storage And Services (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)</p><h2 id=\"id_2603697569\">Long-Term Trends</h2><p>The global electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) market is projected to have a CAGR of 22.1% until 2030. The global autonomous vehicle market is projected to have a CAGR of 35% through 2032. The global electric vehicle charging station market is projected to have a CAGR of 37.7% until 2033. The energy storage market is projected to have a CAGR of 14.31% through 2028. The global photovoltaic market is projected have a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period.</p><h2 id=\"id_1091166465\">The Future Of Self-Driving</h2><p>Tesla is in the process of improving its capabilities on multiple fronts. They have been working toward full self-driving (&#34;FSD&#34;) for many years. As part of this effort, they announced Dojo at their AI Day event on August 19, 2021.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24792668f6b7252a5e3ff7db263f25fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"643\"/></p><p>TSLA Dojo Projections (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)</p><p>As progress continues on establishing superior reliability and safety capabilities, it will eventually become clear that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Once a certain statistical threshold has been met, insurance companies are going to be willing to offer lower rates to drivers who use proven autonomous driving software.</p><p>What I believe frequently gets overlooked is the pressure this will place on entities who operate large fleets of vehicles. They will be financially incentivized to transition to autonomous capable vehicles. While most of the auto industry has been working toward their own versions of autonomous driving, Tesla has a capability lead on most of them. If insurance companies are willing to offer users of Tesla&#39;s software better rates, this will incentivize Tesla&#39;s competition to manufacture vehicles which are capable of running a variety of software packages.</p><p>Their Autopilot has access to more raw data than any of their competitors. This gives them a significant lead on reaching full capability more quickly than any other autonomous driving software provider.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e4a0ee3836625fe05862be235be6d0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p>TSLA Guidance Autopilot (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><p>We could witness an era where it&#39;s common for people to buy a new Ford (F), General Motors (GM), or Stellantis (STLA) vehicle equipped with Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving software. This may also produce an industry of third party entities which convert vehicles to be capable of using Tesla&#39;s software. Eventually, any capability gap should close for those of their competitors who continue developing their own software packages, so this period may only last a few years. However, the trend of vehicles being manufactured with multi-software capability may continue even after the gap closes. Being able to purchase a vehicle capable of using a variety of self-driving software packages may eventually become standard.</p><p>While I am not clear as to when this threshold will be crossed. The idea that Tesla might find themselves with a much larger market for their software than their own vehicles is extremely appealing. The pressure would have to be significant for the other auto manufacturers to make the switch. If the discounts the insurance companies are handing out are not deep enough, we may not see an adoption or we may only experience a partial adoption.</p><h2 id=\"id_766904302\">The Future Of Energy Storage</h2><p>Tesla is well positioned to benefit from ongoing changes in our energy grid. The Levelized Cost of Electricity is the most dominant factor at play when examining long-term energy infrastructure trends.</p><p>When photovoltaics reached the status of our cheapest source of electricity several years ago, additional renewable capacity seems inevitable. However, the adoption of intermittent sources warps the daily supply and demand curve for wholesale electricity. This supply and demand imbalance produced by solar is known as the Duck Curve. Excessive overproduction from solar will damage portions of the grid. This problem is severe enough that it is already common to disconnect portions of commercial scale capacity during the middle of the day. I went into further detail about how this is affecting long-term trends related to our grid in my recent article about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLC.AU\">Fluence</a> Energy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c147776dcc731a995ce851080e42f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><p>The Duck Curve (Brad Bouillon; Stanford University)</p><p>Tesla sits in a unique situation where they are involved in both grid scale storage as well as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In places where a portion of the grid is supplied by photovoltaics, storage providers are able to collect free or almost-free electricity in the middle of the day while the grid is overproducing. This electricity can later be sold back into the market in the evening when they are at their highest.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ac2ebf908cc8379c189eabbedc7ca5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>Wholesale California Electricity Prices Over 24 Hrs. On A Spring Day (Charles W. Forsberg; ResearchGate, May 2020)</p><p>With the electricity collected at no cost, or almost no cost, the margins for such an operation are a function of the sheer volume one can manage divided by the maintenance costs for the batteries. This means that storage providers are incentivized to gain access to as much overproduction as possible. Over the next several decades, I believe the electricity arbitrage industry has the potential to scale with the mass adoption of solar and will become incredibly lucrative. Although it&#39;s still far too early to tell how this situation will develop, Tesla is currently well positioned to become a major player in this emerging industry.</p><p>Their Autobidder continues to find opportunities in Australia, Texas, California, and the UK. The company cites the clear advantages of growing their footprint, as each facility they build is expected to produce revenue for about 20 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f923519b920c1ce932fc27fda75a07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>TSLA Autobidder Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><p>In 2022, their energy generation and storage segment reached 5.4% of total revenues, representing a 90% YoY increase to $1.310 billion, while the cost of revenues stands at $1.151 billion. This gives it a gross margin of 9.26%. According to a September 2023 article, Autobidder has made over $330 million in trading revenues since inception.</p><h2 id=\"id_1793167372\">Guidance</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s most recent earnings call spoke of several long-term projects they have in the works. They covered developments with the Cybertruck, which they plan to launch later this year, and also mentioned continued efforts toward developing a robotaxi. They are pleased about the adoption of the North American Charging Standard. Overall, things have been going well for them in recent months.</p><p>Their forward looking statements indicate that they expect Q3 to have lower revenue due to scheduled upgrades causing down-time through the summer months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b8013f2708a14570db43c0501102e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>TSLA Q3 Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)</p><h2 id=\"id_1301781525\">Annual Financials</h2><p>Tesla&#39;s annual revenue has been growing at an impressive rate. In 2013 they had an annual revenue of $2,013.5M. By 2022, that had grown to $81,462M. This represents a total increase of 3945.8% at an average annual rate of 438.4%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcc482b761f902e3e7c254040e9c8597\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Revenue (By Author)</p><p>Their annual margins have been improving over the last several years. As of the most recent annual report, gross margins were 25.60%, EBITDA margins were 21.41%, operating margins were 16.81%, and net margins were 15.41%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ea2cc4873205f6048d485d7c8c03743\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Margins (By Author)</p><p>Like many growing companies, Tesla has been diluting to help fund expansion. Total common shares outstanding was at 1,846.4M in 2013; by the end of 2022 that rose to 3,164M. This represents a 71.4% rise in share count, which comes out to an average annual rate of 7.93%. Over that same time period, operating income rose from -$61.3M to $13,692M. Because it has come with significant improvements to income, I view this dilution as accretive.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae842b30302928f4ba47f1df6ca3b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)</p><p>Their debt situation has been improving over the last several years. As of the 2022 annual report, they had $106M in net interest expense, total debt was $5,748M, and long-term debt was $1,029M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2a5f6f85100d6fad8fbc763ee28c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Debt (By Author)</p><p>As of this most recent annual report, cash and equivalents was $16,253M, operating income was $13,692M, EBITDA was $17,439M, net income was $12,556M, unlevered free cash flow was $4,327.5M, and levered free cash flow was $4,208.1M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4749ab51b3930ace699aa8fdbc9d3042\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Cash Flow (By Author)</p><p>Their total equity has been growing quite quickly.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7668562728d6b2189d0ea9b36320c656\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Total Equity (By Author)</p><p>Annual returns have also been improving. As of the most recent annual report ROIC was 24.31%, ROCE was 17.64%, and ROE was at 27.36%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5583fd99045d634b1d656076e1699c03\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Annual Returns (By Author)</p><h2 id=\"id_1822369943\">Quarterly Financials</h2><p>Their quarterly financials are showing significant revenue growth over the last two years. Eight quarters ago Tesla had a quarterly revenue of $11,958M. Four quarters ago that had grown to $16,934M. By this most recent quarter that had grown to $24,927M. This represents a total two-year rise of 108.4% at an average quarterly rate of 13.6%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d5dee77bc7ebd5bff77ffdbff2b891\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Revenue (By Author)</p><p>Their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters. As of the most recent quarter gross margins were 18.19%, EBITDA margins were 14.25%, operating margins were 9.62%, and net margins were at 10.84%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a9552bd4abea5d4eaf5bab00ec6cbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Margins (By Author)</p><p>Their dilution rate appears to have dropped in more recent quarters. The sum of their last eight quarters of dilution comes to 7.32%; over the last four quarters this has dropped to 1.63%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229782b5a1c2946139d72aed133ad813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)</p><p>Their debt situation is improving. This most recent quarter, Tesla had $210M in net interest expense, total debt was at $5811M, and long-term debt was at $504M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f4a8a103bf7e3ca31bf52ce141526\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Debt (By Author)</p><p>Their quarterly cash flow is inconsistent. As of the most recent earnings report, cash and equivalents were $15,296M, quarterly operating income was $2,399M, EBITDA was $3553M, net income was $2,703M, unlevered free cash flow was $894.4M, and levered free cash flow was $876.9M.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db4fae5af9d282f20ff6be83fc6eba91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Cash Flow (By Author)</p><p>When viewed on a quarterly basis, their total equity continues to rise.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39348a9bbb1a278da180df079161da78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Total Equity (By Author)</p><p>Their returns are trending in a similar pattern with their margins. As of the most recent earnings report ROIC was 4.66%, ROCE was 2.81%, and ROE was 5.18%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b3a5e5973cf51f1e4bb2acfeef013b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p>TSLA Quarterly Returns (By Author)</p><h2 id=\"id_3002784039\">Valuation</h2><p>As of October 11th, 2023, Tesla had a market capitalization of $836.73B and traded for $262.99 per share. They do not pay a dividend, so using their forward P/E of 91.03x, and their EPS Long-Term CAGR of 19.72%, I calculated a PEGY of 4.616x and an Inverted PEGY of 0.2166x. As the PEGY value is well above 1, this implies the company is presently significantly overvalued.</p><p>However, TSLA has a history of trading at elevated valuations. They are currently trading with an EV/EBITDA of 48.73x. When viewing their EV/EBITDA over the last 5 years, it&#39;s clear that its present valuation is historically not as overvalued as it has reached in the past.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d884e507e04fa1ef07ee4d2ca9e62583\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>TSLA 5 Year EV/EBITDA (Seeking Alpha)</p><h2 id=\"id_3723830278\">Risks</h2><p>Tesla faces a large number of competitors. A majority of the already established auto manufacturers on the planet are developing or already producing their own EV&#39;s and alternative fuel vehicles. This developing industry has also attracted a significant number of speculative startups. Because of Tesla&#39;s first mover advantage, and the time it will take to develop a viable product from nothing, I expect that the effects of this increasing competitive pressure will come on gradually.</p><p>Autonomous driving may take longer to reach full maturity than they expect. Progress is expected to continue on its logistic growth curve, with most of the easy breakthroughs having already been made. The company already has a viable product, but they need a huge amount of additional data and time to fine tune it and make further safety and reliability improvements. It will likely be difficult to tell when they have actually crossed above the threshold where their FSD software can be called &#34;fully mature.&#34;</p><p>As always with innovators, Tesla runs the risk of overspending to stay relevant. Developing their own hardware and software for machine learning may end up costing more than they expect, or not be as profitable as they project. The push to develop A.I. is spawning development across the industry, and Tesla is merely one of many companies working on their own projects. While I believe the decision to move into machine learning was good for the long-term health of the company, it&#39;s always possible the additional cost of joining the first movers will not be worth the benefits.</p><h2 id=\"id_2771406227\">Catalysts</h2><p>Tesla faces several catalysts, most of which are not near term. Tesla has cut prices several times earlier this year. This should produce additional demand and help them capture market share. Tesla has been normalizing electric vehicle use; at some point we will cross the threshold where it&#39;s more normal culturally to drive an electric or alternative fuel vehicle than a gasoline or diesel.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s overall engineering quality is extremely high. Tesla is several generations into EV development and their design philosophy has them continuously making performance improvements. For a specific example of what I am referencing, YouTube has videos of Sandy Munro comparing the thermal systems of the Mach-E and the Model Y. They are eye-opening.</p><p>As stated above, I believe demand for their FSD software will increase once the insurance providers are willing to offer discounts. Organizations which maintain fleets of vehicles will have to justify not transitioning to the cheaper option. This is likely to affect everyone from car rental companies and taxi services, to government employees and utility vehicles. Demand for FSD may also spur their competition into producing vehicles which are capable of using Tesla&#39;s driverless software.</p><p>Tesla is joining several others in the development of Iron-Air batteries. These types of batteries are significantly cheaper than the Li-ion we are all accustomed to. Tesla already operates a grid scale energy storage facility in Texas. The dramatic cost savings of Iron-Air batteries makes them a disruptive technology. Our electric grid currently requires a significant contribution from base load providers. As we increase its storage capacity, I believe the bargaining power the base load providers currently have will diminish as most of the negotiating power will shift to the storage providers.</p><p>Also, storage providers will experience sustained tailwinds from the continued adoption of solar as they profit from daily arbitrage opportunities. Because of their dramatically lower cost of production, the adoption of iron-air batteries should both lower cost of expansion and improve margins for their energy storage division.</p><p>Tesla achieves rather high margins for a manufacturer. As producers in other industries realize that the reason Tesla is achieving superior margins and return on capital is due to their preference for automated manufacturing, the demand for Tesla-style facilities should rise. The company could eventually open a subsidiary which establishes automated manufacturing facilities for other companies.</p><h2 id=\"id_2355894248\">Conclusions</h2><p>Normally, I refuse to place buy ratings on any company this overvalued. However, I believe the current UAW strike will provide continued tailwinds for Tesla, Inc.&#39;s share price as it continues. Add to this the fact that they have a history of achieving unreasonably high valuations and its present valuation becomes less of a concern. This is one of the few occasions where I am willing to hand out a buy rating on a ticker when I am unable to clearly see that it&#39;s trading below its intrinsic value. I believe Tesla has unrecognized long-term growth potential, so it potentially may have a hidden margin of safety.</p><p>Overall, Tesla, Inc. appears to be an extremely attractive investment because of their culture of adaptation and innovation. While I cannot guarantee that their current endeavors will lead to future moats, they have already established themselves as a premier EV producer and have the potential to find themselves with multiple high margin revenue streams. Although their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters, they have proven they are capable of producing attractive returns.</p><p>I believe Tesla stock is likely to become the long-term compounder that its present investors hope it will be. So even if buying at today&#39;s prices ends up being a lackluster entry in the short or medium term, long-term Tesla, Inc. shareholders are unlikely to be punished for it.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: My Long-Term Bull Thesis (Rating Upgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-14 15:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640677-tesla-my-long-term-bull-thesis-rating-upgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2375871947","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems.Tesla has already established itself as a premier EV producer and is well-positioned to achieve additional moats in its ancillary industries.They have a history of achieving attractive returns. I believe they will become a long-term compounder.After reviewing their present financials and valuation, I currently rate Tesla stock a Buy.ThesisA few days ago, I was in a discussion with a friend about his recent Tesla, Inc. stock acquisition and told him I thought he would likely be quite happy with his purchase a decade from now. When he asked me why, I gave him a brief on two high margin revenue streams that Tesla is in the process of developing. I am detailing the points I made to him in this article.As much as I am quite bullish on their long-term prospects, when I wrote my last article on Tesla in April, I was hesitant to place a buy rating because of a combination of their margin contraction caused by price drops and our inverted yield curve. However, with the UAW strike providing significant problems for the Big Three, Tesla's short and medium term prospects have improved significantly. After reviewing their financials and present valuation, I currently rate TSLA as a Buy.Company BackgroundTesla produces electric vehicles, solar panels and roof tiles, and battery storage systems. They are a leading developer of self-driving software, and have expanded into machine learning with the development of their own supercomputer called Dojo. They maintain operations in the United States, China, and internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and and is currently headquartered in Austin, Texas.Tesla maintains an Automotive segment, and an Energy Generation and Storage segment. Their Automotive segment offers electric vehicles and ancillary products and services. This segment includes their network of Superchargers and service locations, in-app upgrades and mobile services, financing and leasing services, and warranties and extended service plans.TSLA Automotive Market Share (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 9)Their Energy Generation and Storage segment provides photovoltaic generation, storage products, and related services. It maintains a website as well as stores and galleries, and also reaches customers through a network of channel partners. They offer various financing options to their solar customers.TSLA Energy Storage And Services (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)Long-Term TrendsThe global electric vehicle (\"EV\") market is projected to have a CAGR of 22.1% until 2030. The global autonomous vehicle market is projected to have a CAGR of 35% through 2032. The global electric vehicle charging station market is projected to have a CAGR of 37.7% until 2033. The energy storage market is projected to have a CAGR of 14.31% through 2028. The global photovoltaic market is projected have a CAGR of 10.1% during the forecast period.The Future Of Self-DrivingTesla is in the process of improving its capabilities on multiple fronts. They have been working toward full self-driving (\"FSD\") for many years. As part of this effort, they announced Dojo at their AI Day event on August 19, 2021.TSLA Dojo Projections (Shareholder Deck, Q2 2023, page 8)As progress continues on establishing superior reliability and safety capabilities, it will eventually become clear that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Once a certain statistical threshold has been met, insurance companies are going to be willing to offer lower rates to drivers who use proven autonomous driving software.What I believe frequently gets overlooked is the pressure this will place on entities who operate large fleets of vehicles. They will be financially incentivized to transition to autonomous capable vehicles. While most of the auto industry has been working toward their own versions of autonomous driving, Tesla has a capability lead on most of them. If insurance companies are willing to offer users of Tesla's software better rates, this will incentivize Tesla's competition to manufacture vehicles which are capable of running a variety of software packages.Their Autopilot has access to more raw data than any of their competitors. This gives them a significant lead on reaching full capability more quickly than any other autonomous driving software provider.TSLA Guidance Autopilot (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)We could witness an era where it's common for people to buy a new Ford (F), General Motors (GM), or Stellantis (STLA) vehicle equipped with Tesla's autonomous driving software. This may also produce an industry of third party entities which convert vehicles to be capable of using Tesla's software. Eventually, any capability gap should close for those of their competitors who continue developing their own software packages, so this period may only last a few years. However, the trend of vehicles being manufactured with multi-software capability may continue even after the gap closes. Being able to purchase a vehicle capable of using a variety of self-driving software packages may eventually become standard.While I am not clear as to when this threshold will be crossed. The idea that Tesla might find themselves with a much larger market for their software than their own vehicles is extremely appealing. The pressure would have to be significant for the other auto manufacturers to make the switch. If the discounts the insurance companies are handing out are not deep enough, we may not see an adoption or we may only experience a partial adoption.The Future Of Energy StorageTesla is well positioned to benefit from ongoing changes in our energy grid. The Levelized Cost of Electricity is the most dominant factor at play when examining long-term energy infrastructure trends.When photovoltaics reached the status of our cheapest source of electricity several years ago, additional renewable capacity seems inevitable. However, the adoption of intermittent sources warps the daily supply and demand curve for wholesale electricity. This supply and demand imbalance produced by solar is known as the Duck Curve. Excessive overproduction from solar will damage portions of the grid. This problem is severe enough that it is already common to disconnect portions of commercial scale capacity during the middle of the day. I went into further detail about how this is affecting long-term trends related to our grid in my recent article about Fluence Energy.The Duck Curve (Brad Bouillon; Stanford University)Tesla sits in a unique situation where they are involved in both grid scale storage as well as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In places where a portion of the grid is supplied by photovoltaics, storage providers are able to collect free or almost-free electricity in the middle of the day while the grid is overproducing. This electricity can later be sold back into the market in the evening when they are at their highest.Wholesale California Electricity Prices Over 24 Hrs. On A Spring Day (Charles W. Forsberg; ResearchGate, May 2020)With the electricity collected at no cost, or almost no cost, the margins for such an operation are a function of the sheer volume one can manage divided by the maintenance costs for the batteries. This means that storage providers are incentivized to gain access to as much overproduction as possible. Over the next several decades, I believe the electricity arbitrage industry has the potential to scale with the mass adoption of solar and will become incredibly lucrative. Although it's still far too early to tell how this situation will develop, Tesla is currently well positioned to become a major player in this emerging industry.Their Autobidder continues to find opportunities in Australia, Texas, California, and the UK. The company cites the clear advantages of growing their footprint, as each facility they build is expected to produce revenue for about 20 years.TSLA Autobidder Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)In 2022, their energy generation and storage segment reached 5.4% of total revenues, representing a 90% YoY increase to $1.310 billion, while the cost of revenues stands at $1.151 billion. This gives it a gross margin of 9.26%. According to a September 2023 article, Autobidder has made over $330 million in trading revenues since inception.GuidanceTesla's most recent earnings call spoke of several long-term projects they have in the works. They covered developments with the Cybertruck, which they plan to launch later this year, and also mentioned continued efforts toward developing a robotaxi. They are pleased about the adoption of the North American Charging Standard. Overall, things have been going well for them in recent months.Their forward looking statements indicate that they expect Q3 to have lower revenue due to scheduled upgrades causing down-time through the summer months.TSLA Q3 Guidance (Earnings Call Transcript, Q2 2023)Annual FinancialsTesla's annual revenue has been growing at an impressive rate. In 2013 they had an annual revenue of $2,013.5M. By 2022, that had grown to $81,462M. This represents a total increase of 3945.8% at an average annual rate of 438.4%.TSLA Annual Revenue (By Author)Their annual margins have been improving over the last several years. As of the most recent annual report, gross margins were 25.60%, EBITDA margins were 21.41%, operating margins were 16.81%, and net margins were 15.41%.TSLA Annual Margins (By Author)Like many growing companies, Tesla has been diluting to help fund expansion. Total common shares outstanding was at 1,846.4M in 2013; by the end of 2022 that rose to 3,164M. This represents a 71.4% rise in share count, which comes out to an average annual rate of 7.93%. Over that same time period, operating income rose from -$61.3M to $13,692M. Because it has come with significant improvements to income, I view this dilution as accretive.TSLA Annual Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)Their debt situation has been improving over the last several years. As of the 2022 annual report, they had $106M in net interest expense, total debt was $5,748M, and long-term debt was $1,029M.TSLA Annual Debt (By Author)As of this most recent annual report, cash and equivalents was $16,253M, operating income was $13,692M, EBITDA was $17,439M, net income was $12,556M, unlevered free cash flow was $4,327.5M, and levered free cash flow was $4,208.1M.TSLA Annual Cash Flow (By Author)Their total equity has been growing quite quickly.TSLA Annual Total Equity (By Author)Annual returns have also been improving. As of the most recent annual report ROIC was 24.31%, ROCE was 17.64%, and ROE was at 27.36%.TSLA Annual Returns (By Author)Quarterly FinancialsTheir quarterly financials are showing significant revenue growth over the last two years. Eight quarters ago Tesla had a quarterly revenue of $11,958M. Four quarters ago that had grown to $16,934M. By this most recent quarter that had grown to $24,927M. This represents a total two-year rise of 108.4% at an average quarterly rate of 13.6%.TSLA Quarterly Revenue (By Author)Their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters. As of the most recent quarter gross margins were 18.19%, EBITDA margins were 14.25%, operating margins were 9.62%, and net margins were at 10.84%.TSLA Quarterly Margins (By Author)Their dilution rate appears to have dropped in more recent quarters. The sum of their last eight quarters of dilution comes to 7.32%; over the last four quarters this has dropped to 1.63%.TSLA Quarterly Share Count vs. Cash vs. Income (By Author)Their debt situation is improving. This most recent quarter, Tesla had $210M in net interest expense, total debt was at $5811M, and long-term debt was at $504M.TSLA Quarterly Debt (By Author)Their quarterly cash flow is inconsistent. As of the most recent earnings report, cash and equivalents were $15,296M, quarterly operating income was $2,399M, EBITDA was $3553M, net income was $2,703M, unlevered free cash flow was $894.4M, and levered free cash flow was $876.9M.TSLA Quarterly Cash Flow (By Author)When viewed on a quarterly basis, their total equity continues to rise.TSLA Quarterly Total Equity (By Author)Their returns are trending in a similar pattern with their margins. As of the most recent earnings report ROIC was 4.66%, ROCE was 2.81%, and ROE was 5.18%.TSLA Quarterly Returns (By Author)ValuationAs of October 11th, 2023, Tesla had a market capitalization of $836.73B and traded for $262.99 per share. They do not pay a dividend, so using their forward P/E of 91.03x, and their EPS Long-Term CAGR of 19.72%, I calculated a PEGY of 4.616x and an Inverted PEGY of 0.2166x. As the PEGY value is well above 1, this implies the company is presently significantly overvalued.However, TSLA has a history of trading at elevated valuations. They are currently trading with an EV/EBITDA of 48.73x. When viewing their EV/EBITDA over the last 5 years, it's clear that its present valuation is historically not as overvalued as it has reached in the past.TSLA 5 Year EV/EBITDA (Seeking Alpha)RisksTesla faces a large number of competitors. A majority of the already established auto manufacturers on the planet are developing or already producing their own EV's and alternative fuel vehicles. This developing industry has also attracted a significant number of speculative startups. Because of Tesla's first mover advantage, and the time it will take to develop a viable product from nothing, I expect that the effects of this increasing competitive pressure will come on gradually.Autonomous driving may take longer to reach full maturity than they expect. Progress is expected to continue on its logistic growth curve, with most of the easy breakthroughs having already been made. The company already has a viable product, but they need a huge amount of additional data and time to fine tune it and make further safety and reliability improvements. It will likely be difficult to tell when they have actually crossed above the threshold where their FSD software can be called \"fully mature.\"As always with innovators, Tesla runs the risk of overspending to stay relevant. Developing their own hardware and software for machine learning may end up costing more than they expect, or not be as profitable as they project. The push to develop A.I. is spawning development across the industry, and Tesla is merely one of many companies working on their own projects. While I believe the decision to move into machine learning was good for the long-term health of the company, it's always possible the additional cost of joining the first movers will not be worth the benefits.CatalystsTesla faces several catalysts, most of which are not near term. Tesla has cut prices several times earlier this year. This should produce additional demand and help them capture market share. Tesla has been normalizing electric vehicle use; at some point we will cross the threshold where it's more normal culturally to drive an electric or alternative fuel vehicle than a gasoline or diesel.Tesla's overall engineering quality is extremely high. Tesla is several generations into EV development and their design philosophy has them continuously making performance improvements. For a specific example of what I am referencing, YouTube has videos of Sandy Munro comparing the thermal systems of the Mach-E and the Model Y. They are eye-opening.As stated above, I believe demand for their FSD software will increase once the insurance providers are willing to offer discounts. Organizations which maintain fleets of vehicles will have to justify not transitioning to the cheaper option. This is likely to affect everyone from car rental companies and taxi services, to government employees and utility vehicles. Demand for FSD may also spur their competition into producing vehicles which are capable of using Tesla's driverless software.Tesla is joining several others in the development of Iron-Air batteries. These types of batteries are significantly cheaper than the Li-ion we are all accustomed to. Tesla already operates a grid scale energy storage facility in Texas. The dramatic cost savings of Iron-Air batteries makes them a disruptive technology. Our electric grid currently requires a significant contribution from base load providers. As we increase its storage capacity, I believe the bargaining power the base load providers currently have will diminish as most of the negotiating power will shift to the storage providers.Also, storage providers will experience sustained tailwinds from the continued adoption of solar as they profit from daily arbitrage opportunities. Because of their dramatically lower cost of production, the adoption of iron-air batteries should both lower cost of expansion and improve margins for their energy storage division.Tesla achieves rather high margins for a manufacturer. As producers in other industries realize that the reason Tesla is achieving superior margins and return on capital is due to their preference for automated manufacturing, the demand for Tesla-style facilities should rise. The company could eventually open a subsidiary which establishes automated manufacturing facilities for other companies.ConclusionsNormally, I refuse to place buy ratings on any company this overvalued. However, I believe the current UAW strike will provide continued tailwinds for Tesla, Inc.'s share price as it continues. Add to this the fact that they have a history of achieving unreasonably high valuations and its present valuation becomes less of a concern. This is one of the few occasions where I am willing to hand out a buy rating on a ticker when I am unable to clearly see that it's trading below its intrinsic value. I believe Tesla has unrecognized long-term growth potential, so it potentially may have a hidden margin of safety.Overall, Tesla, Inc. appears to be an extremely attractive investment because of their culture of adaptation and innovation. While I cannot guarantee that their current endeavors will lead to future moats, they have already established themselves as a premier EV producer and have the potential to find themselves with multiple high margin revenue streams. Although their margins have been contracting over the last several quarters, they have proven they are capable of producing attractive returns.I believe Tesla stock is likely to become the long-term compounder that its present investors hope it will be. So even if buying at today's prices ends up being a lackluster entry in the short or medium term, long-term Tesla, Inc. shareholders are unlikely to be punished for it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068202770,"gmtCreate":1651768305091,"gmtModify":1676534966102,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.&nbsp;","listText":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.&nbsp;","text":"User base is still strong and if anyone needsto start Ecommerce it is still shopify. Answer is hold or average down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068202770","repostId":"2233602897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233602897","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1651750144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2233602897?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 19:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Stock Plunges After Earnings Miss and Cautious Outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233602897","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shopify's first-quarter earnings missed analysts' expectations, sending the stock plummeting in prem","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Shopify&#39;s first-quarter earnings missed analysts&#39; expectations, sending the stock plummeting in premarket trading Thursday.</p><p>The e-commerce company reported adjusted earnings of 20 cents a share during the quarter, below estimates for 64 cents a share. Net income was $25.1 million, down from $254.1 million from the same period last year.</p><p>Shopify (ticker: SHOP) posted sales of $1.2 billion, in line with estimates for $1.24 billion. Gross merchandise volume grew by 16% year over year to $43.2 billion.</p><p>The company is expecting year-over-year revenue growth to be lower in the first half and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, &#34;as the Covid-triggered acceleration of e-commerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus is absent from the first half of 2022,&#34; the company said.</p><p>Shares of Shopify were down 15% to $414.95 in premarket trading on Thursday.</p><p>The company also announced it planned to acquire fulfillment technology provider Deliverr for about $2.1 billion, consisting of approximately 80% in cash and 20% in Shopify Class A shares.</p><p>Investors were jittery coming into Shopify&#39;s earnings, given the mixed results other online retailers have posted this earnings season. Amazon ( AMZN) stock tanked after it reported that online sales had declined this quarter, sending ripple waves across the sector.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Stock Plunges After Earnings Miss and Cautious Outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Stock Plunges After Earnings Miss and Cautious Outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-05 19:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Shopify&#39;s first-quarter earnings missed analysts&#39; expectations, sending the stock plummeting in premarket trading Thursday.</p><p>The e-commerce company reported adjusted earnings of 20 cents a share during the quarter, below estimates for 64 cents a share. Net income was $25.1 million, down from $254.1 million from the same period last year.</p><p>Shopify (ticker: SHOP) posted sales of $1.2 billion, in line with estimates for $1.24 billion. Gross merchandise volume grew by 16% year over year to $43.2 billion.</p><p>The company is expecting year-over-year revenue growth to be lower in the first half and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, &#34;as the Covid-triggered acceleration of e-commerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus is absent from the first half of 2022,&#34; the company said.</p><p>Shares of Shopify were down 15% to $414.95 in premarket trading on Thursday.</p><p>The company also announced it planned to acquire fulfillment technology provider Deliverr for about $2.1 billion, consisting of approximately 80% in cash and 20% in Shopify Class A shares.</p><p>Investors were jittery coming into Shopify&#39;s earnings, given the mixed results other online retailers have posted this earnings season. Amazon ( AMZN) stock tanked after it reported that online sales had declined this quarter, sending ripple waves across the sector.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233602897","content_text":"Shopify's first-quarter earnings missed analysts' expectations, sending the stock plummeting in premarket trading Thursday.The e-commerce company reported adjusted earnings of 20 cents a share during the quarter, below estimates for 64 cents a share. Net income was $25.1 million, down from $254.1 million from the same period last year.Shopify (ticker: SHOP) posted sales of $1.2 billion, in line with estimates for $1.24 billion. Gross merchandise volume grew by 16% year over year to $43.2 billion.The company is expecting year-over-year revenue growth to be lower in the first half and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, \"as the Covid-triggered acceleration of e-commerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus is absent from the first half of 2022,\" the company said.Shares of Shopify were down 15% to $414.95 in premarket trading on Thursday.The company also announced it planned to acquire fulfillment technology provider Deliverr for about $2.1 billion, consisting of approximately 80% in cash and 20% in Shopify Class A shares.Investors were jittery coming into Shopify's earnings, given the mixed results other online retailers have posted this earnings season. Amazon ( AMZN) stock tanked after it reported that online sales had declined this quarter, sending ripple waves across the sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030831592,"gmtCreate":1645675747594,"gmtModify":1676534052595,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great sharing. $tsla","listText":"Great sharing. $tsla","text":"Great sharing. $tsla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030831592","repostId":"1192127616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007324466,"gmtCreate":1642778738193,"gmtModify":1676533745762,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Switch to tsla!","listText":"Switch to tsla!","text":"Switch to tsla!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007324466","repostId":"1104201332","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104201332","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642777462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104201332?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-21 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104201332","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9861f1ab58b1f7c20496bae358ff7f9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Shares Fell More Than 6% Following the Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-21 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9861f1ab58b1f7c20496bae358ff7f9\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"616\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c13588f559343a96ce06d72d3cf4d5","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104201332","content_text":"Palantir shares fell more than 6% following the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098838835,"gmtCreate":1644075310228,"gmtModify":1676533888139,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🧨💣","listText":"🧨💣","text":"🧨💣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098838835","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090798747,"gmtCreate":1643259215133,"gmtModify":1676533791627,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4096608787891490\">@codecen</a>move to $zil","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4096608787891490\">@codecen</a>move to $zil","text":"@codecenmove to $zil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090798747","repostId":"2206720890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001709577,"gmtCreate":1641310404520,"gmtModify":1676533596423,"author":{"id":"4096621470895230","authorId":"4096621470895230","name":"Birdykoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6be32412605345eb4a22e6dc95f8a72","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096621470895230","authorIdStr":"4096621470895230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Remarkable!&nbsp;","listText":"Remarkable!&nbsp;","text":"Remarkable!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001709577","repostId":"1102940638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102940638","pubTimestamp":1641254417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102940638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 08:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102940638","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worl","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a year</li><li>Company delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarter</li></ul><p>Tesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car maker smashed its quarterly record for deliveries in what one analyst called a “trophy-case” performance.</p><p>The company’s shares jumped 14% in New York, their biggest gain since March and best start to a year since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. The $144 billion in market value that Tesla added on Monday is the equivalent of an entire Honeywell International Inc. or Starbucks Corp. It’s also more than the value of almost 90% of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98c9fe43c27a22e44f07c72304c2671\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Worldwide deliveries totaled 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the average analyst estimate of roughly 263,000 vehicles, and topping the company’s previous record of 241,300 from the prior quarter. Annual handovers surged to more than 936,000 in 2021, up 87% from the previous year’s level, Austin, Texas-based Tesla said Sunday.</p><p>“This is a trophy-case quarter for Tesla as the company blew away even bull-case expectations,” Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an email. He called it a “jaw-dropper performance” for the end of the year that gives “massive tailwinds” heading into 2022.</p><p>The record quarter underscores the “green tidal wave taking hold” for Tesla and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, Ives said in a note to clients. The results also point to robust demand in China and Tesla’s skill at navigating the global semiconductor shortage, he said.</p><p>Musk, who has pledged delivery growth despite the “supply-chain nightmare” of 2021, praised his crew on Twitter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8ecf3d5f76e1a511459de02365693c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Quarterly deliveries are one of the most closely watched indicators for Tesla. They underpin its financial results and are widely seen as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as a whole because the company has led the charge for battery-powered cars.</p><p>Tesla has said repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multiyear period. The seventh consecutive quarterly gain comes amid a global semiconductor slump that has crimped production at most other automakers and kept sales in check despite rising demand.</p><p>“Tesla continues to execute well, posting deliveries and production above consensus expectations,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said. “As the competition heats up from incumbent OEMs and new entrants alike, we see 2022 becoming a critical year for Tesla.”</p><p>The EV market leader’s stock soared almost 50% in 2021 to give it a market valuation exceeding $1 trillion -- one of only a handful of U.S.-based public companies to achieve that status.</p><p>The shares reached a record high in early November before plunging after Musk began unloading 10% of his stake.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1195533166\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elon Musk’s Fortune Climbs $30 Billion on Tesla’s Record Quarter for Deliveries</b></a><b></b></p><p>Elon Musk started 2022 with a bang.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb18462e67b743b94632bf0093ff927\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Inc. reported it had smashed its previous record for vehicle deliveries, spurring a rally in the electric car-maker’s shares and creating one of the biggest one-day jumps in wealth.</p><p>Musk’s fortune jumped by $33.8 billion on Monday to $304.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Jeff Bezos, second on the list, has a $196 billion fortune.</p><p>Tesla’s shares rose 13.5% to $1,199.78 on Monday after fourth-quarter results handily exceeded analysts’ estimates for auto deliveries.</p><p>The company’s market valuation jumped back above $1 trillion last month after a dip in November and early December.</p><p>Musk, who owns about 18% of Tesla, helped trigger the slide when he said he would reduce his stake in the company by 10%. He’ssoldmore than $10 billion worth of shares since November, part of a plan to generate cash to pay tax obligations.</p><p>Musk’s net worth, which also includes his stake in rocket manufacterer SpaceX, reached a high of $340 billion last year, surpassing the peak inflation-adjusted net worth of John D. Rockefeller and briefly making him the richest person in modern history.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Adds $144 Billion to Market Value After Record Deliveries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-04 08:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarterTesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/tesla-set-for-record-start-to-new-year-after-blowout-deliveries","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102940638","content_text":"Monday’s 14% gain is stock’s best performance to start a yearCompany delivered 308,600 vehicles worldwide in fourth quarterTesla Inc. is off to a strong start to the new year after the electric-car maker smashed its quarterly record for deliveries in what one analyst called a “trophy-case” performance.The company’s shares jumped 14% in New York, their biggest gain since March and best start to a year since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. The $144 billion in market value that Tesla added on Monday is the equivalent of an entire Honeywell International Inc. or Starbucks Corp. It’s also more than the value of almost 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index.Worldwide deliveries totaled 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the average analyst estimate of roughly 263,000 vehicles, and topping the company’s previous record of 241,300 from the prior quarter. Annual handovers surged to more than 936,000 in 2021, up 87% from the previous year’s level, Austin, Texas-based Tesla said Sunday.“This is a trophy-case quarter for Tesla as the company blew away even bull-case expectations,” Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an email. He called it a “jaw-dropper performance” for the end of the year that gives “massive tailwinds” heading into 2022.The record quarter underscores the “green tidal wave taking hold” for Tesla and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, Ives said in a note to clients. The results also point to robust demand in China and Tesla’s skill at navigating the global semiconductor shortage, he said.Musk, who has pledged delivery growth despite the “supply-chain nightmare” of 2021, praised his crew on Twitter.Quarterly deliveries are one of the most closely watched indicators for Tesla. They underpin its financial results and are widely seen as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as a whole because the company has led the charge for battery-powered cars.Tesla has said repeatedly it expects 50% annual increases in deliveries over a multiyear period. The seventh consecutive quarterly gain comes amid a global semiconductor slump that has crimped production at most other automakers and kept sales in check despite rising demand.“Tesla continues to execute well, posting deliveries and production above consensus expectations,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said. “As the competition heats up from incumbent OEMs and new entrants alike, we see 2022 becoming a critical year for Tesla.”The EV market leader’s stock soared almost 50% in 2021 to give it a market valuation exceeding $1 trillion -- one of only a handful of U.S.-based public companies to achieve that status.The shares reached a record high in early November before plunging after Musk began unloading 10% of his stake.Elon Musk’s Fortune Climbs $30 Billion on Tesla’s Record Quarter for DeliveriesElon Musk started 2022 with a bang.Tesla Inc. reported it had smashed its previous record for vehicle deliveries, spurring a rally in the electric car-maker’s shares and creating one of the biggest one-day jumps in wealth.Musk’s fortune jumped by $33.8 billion on Monday to $304.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Jeff Bezos, second on the list, has a $196 billion fortune.Tesla’s shares rose 13.5% to $1,199.78 on Monday after fourth-quarter results handily exceeded analysts’ estimates for auto deliveries.The company’s market valuation jumped back above $1 trillion last month after a dip in November and early December.Musk, who owns about 18% of Tesla, helped trigger the slide when he said he would reduce his stake in the company by 10%. He’ssoldmore than $10 billion worth of shares since November, part of a plan to generate cash to pay tax obligations.Musk’s net worth, which also includes his stake in rocket manufacterer SpaceX, reached a high of $340 billion last year, surpassing the peak inflation-adjusted net worth of John D. Rockefeller and briefly making him the richest person in modern history.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}