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Thalos

Thalos

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11-01

Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even

10-30

$RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT$

10-28

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$

10-26

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$

10-26

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$

10-24

SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.

07-03

More than 3 years

03-27

Dumbgrading.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

03-18

Why sell when it already tanks? Just another article. At what price was SoFi when the article is about halfway being penned down? Somebody now happily buying more at the low when those lovers react to the article to sell

SoFi Technologies: Pessimism Is Justified

02-03

$Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ I have bought 4000 shares @1.11. Previously sold at 1.58. Sold some options as well. Hopefully this is one that can possibly 2x one day. More vested interest with SoFi at the moment as I see Pagaya as a slow play. Upstart is a great milking cow with trading using options.

01-30

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 2024 should see 12-13.0

01-17

This is certainly a manipulative bear report. To be realistic as we could, listen to CEO talk about student loans, this writer try to downplay by using past history. Its so obvious, there was not a single commendable writes on the company.

Sell SoFi Technologies Because Of Macro Demand And Supply Challenges

01-12

All news are temporary stimulants for bulls or bears. Use it for our advantage. The principal of wanting buy low and sell high never change.

2023-12-15

$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ good to go

2023-12-15

$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ good to ho

2023-12-15

$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$

2023-09-04

Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?

2023-09-01

Any great trader form a elite team for trading competition?

2023-09-01

Getting the better of myself always

2023-08-12

Nice quiz

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","listText":"Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","text":"Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366125265301568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365267033059352,"gmtCreate":1730220127658,"gmtModify":1730220130823,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT\">$RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT\">$RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$RIOT 20250117 8.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb168ea041dedee8e095644ac77806c6","width":"782","height":"1570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365267033059352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364800056676480,"gmtCreate":1730072844181,"gmtModify":1730072847888,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/559c58f3de2cca61913ff4cc983b59ce","width":"968","height":"2947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364800056676480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364111437688888,"gmtCreate":1729904732423,"gmtModify":1729904735563,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee8b075b50f91bfc677fdc6409181cd8","width":"968","height":"2994"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364111437688888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364111230644280,"gmtCreate":1729904681875,"gmtModify":1729904685916,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee7db3d85b15eb9f6b36511f619f4240","width":"968","height":"2994"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364111230644280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363349729579016,"gmtCreate":1729751043634,"gmtModify":1729751850563,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","listText":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","text":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363349729579016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089333091543410","authorId":"4089333091543410","name":"maleman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb1fc813a418a3eeb5469374d4b7bca1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089333091543410","authorIdStr":"4089333091543410"},"content":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out","text":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out","html":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323569596203048,"gmtCreate":1720022056844,"gmtModify":1720022060500,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More than 3 years","listText":"More than 3 years","text":"More than 3 years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323569596203048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":288676279845152,"gmtCreate":1711510340606,"gmtModify":1711510344028,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dumbgrading.&nbsp;","listText":"Dumbgrading.&nbsp;","text":"Dumbgrading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288676279845152","repostId":"1194660854","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":285638686081088,"gmtCreate":1710770701021,"gmtModify":1710770704668,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why sell when it already tanks? Just another article. At what price was SoFi when the article is about halfway being penned down? Somebody now happily buying more at the low when those lovers react to the article to sell","listText":"Why sell when it already tanks? Just another article. At what price was SoFi when the article is about halfway being penned down? Somebody now happily buying more at the low when those lovers react to the article to sell","text":"Why sell when it already tanks? Just another article. At what price was SoFi when the article is about halfway being penned down? Somebody now happily buying more at the low when those lovers react to the article to sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/285638686081088","repostId":"1168982126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168982126","pubTimestamp":1710752254,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168982126?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-18 16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Technologies: Pessimism Is Justified","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168982126","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe potential decline in interest rates could negatively impact SoFi's net interest income.Consumers' weakening financial health may lead to higher delinquency rates and limit SOFI's future gro","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3855195556\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The potential decline in interest rates could negatively impact SoFi&#39;s net interest income.</p></li><li><p>Consumers&#39; weakening financial health may lead to higher delinquency rates and limit SOFI&#39;s future growth.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s valuation, in the current environment, is likely expensive.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3534563060\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Introduction</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my previous articles, I had a sell rating on SoFi Technologies. In both of the articles, my primary argument for a sell thesis was the potential macroeconomic headwind. At the time, I believed that the slowly declining consumers&#39; financial health could create a headwind for the company going forward. Today, I continue to stand by my reasoning from the previous articles. SoFi&#39;s stock has declined about 5% since the publication of my previous article compared to a 20% increase in the S&amp;P 500 during this time. Further, I believe the macroeconomic conditions have significantly worsened with initial signs of weakness in the market leading to the continuation of my negative view of the company. Thus, I believe my bearish case on SoFi strengthened in the past few months. Consumers&#39; financial conditions are weakening, which will likely affect SoFi&#39;s bottom line and also pressure the company to expand more conservatively. Finally, with the expectation of a declining federal funds rate in 2024, SoFi&#39;s net interest income, NII, could be negatively affected. Therefore, I am maintaining my sell thesis on SoFi.</p><h2 id=\"id_1359816226\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Declining Interest Rate</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SoFi had a great calendar year in 2023. The company&#39;s top and bottom-line growth was extremely strong. In the 2023Q4 earnings report, SoFi reported a net interest income of $389.6 million which was up 87% from the prior-year period. The company was able to report such exceptional NII growth as a result of increasing interest rates on interest earnings assets by 3 basis points sequentially and 8 basis points year-over-year. Considering that the company&#39;s total revenue for the quarter was $615 million, I believe it is reasonable to say SoFi, being a fintech company, is heavily reliant on interest income.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Unfortunately, SoFi&#39;s interest income could be challenged in 2024. During the last FOMC meeting of 2023 held in December, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the organization may cut the federal funds rate 3 times in 2024 effectively lowering the market interest rate. Some economists including Goldman Sachs (GS) are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 5 times, which is far more aggressive than the Fed estimates.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The lowering of the interest rate will likely impact SoFi&#39;s interest income on its loans as the interest rate on the loans declines. The magnitude of the impact will ultimately depend on the pace at which the Federal Reserve utilizes in lowering the federal funds rate, but as the market suggests, I believe it is highly likely that SoFi&#39;s net interest income to be pressured going into 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The initial example of the potentially lower interest rates impacting banks came from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) during their earnings call on January 12th. The company said that the &#34;lower interest rates will decrease NII&#34;. As such, it is highly likely for SoFi to see the impact of the macroeconomic conditions in 2024.</p><h2 id=\"id_1355741606\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Consumers&#39; Financial Health</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On top of the potential headwind forming from the interest rate environment for SoFi, consumers&#39; weakening financial health will also likely pressure the company. Weakening financial health could not only increase the delinquency rates, but it could also pressure the company to be more conservative in its underwriting limiting future growth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As the chart below shows, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, delinquency rates on all consumer loans have continued to increase for the past several quarters. In the most recent quarter, 2023Q3, the loan delinquency rates reached 2.53%, which was 6.75% growth quarter-over-quarter. Beyond the delinquency rate that is higher than pre-pandemic levels, the rate at which the rate is continually increasing is alarming. From 2023Q1 to 2023Q2 and from 2022Q4 to 2023Q1, the delinquency rate rose 6.76% and 7.25% quarter-over-quarter, respectively, which means that there was no slowdown in the increase of the delinquency rate for the past few quarters. As such, with no meaningful slowdowns, it could be likely for the consumers&#39; financial health to worsen going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4a832a2451a1c9ce5ad72d6fbb90b6c\" alt=\"Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Chart\" title=\"Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Chart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\"/><span>Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>St. Louis Federal Reserve</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to the historical data provided by the Federal Reserve, JP Morgan&#39;s earnings report, as mentioned earlier, has hinted at continually increasing consumer delinquency rates. The company is expecting the charge-off rates to hit 3.5% compared to 2.79% in 2023.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Overall, I believe it is likely for the consumers&#39; financial health to continue declining, and because the majority of SoFi&#39;s bottom line comes from its lending business, there will likely be a significant impact on SoFi&#39;s business if the consumers&#39; financial health continues to deteriorate.</p><h2 id=\"id_2434584353\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Management Team&#39;s View</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SoFi reported a stellar 2023Q4 earnings report. Everything from top to bottom-line results were strong as the revenue grew 35% year-over-year and the company reached GAAP profitability on expanding margins. However, the continuation of these positive results is unlikely in 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to my view of the macroeconomic conditions involving consumers&#39; financial health and the interest rate environment, SoFi&#39;s management team also provided a sour 2024 outlook. During the earnings call, the company&#39;s management team said that the company is &#34; taking a conservative and pragmatic approach toward [the] Lending segment revenue, expecting to largely maintain it, given our concerns about the 2024 macro environment as it relates to uncertainty on rates, the economy, and industry liquidity.&#34; As a result, SoFi is expecting &#34;the Lending segment revenue to be 92% to 95% of 2023 lending revenue,&#34; hinting at a decline in the company&#39;s highest margin business segment. In the fourth quarter, the lending segment&#39;s contribution profit was $226 million compared to the financial services and technology platform&#39;s $25 and $30 million, respectively. As such, the macroeconomic conditions are expected to have a profound effect on SoFi throughout 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One may argue that SoFi&#39;s diversification process could offset these macroeconomic risks in 2024. The management team said that financial services and technology platforms will drive growth in 2024 increasing the percentage of adjusted revenue to 50% from 38% in 2023. While diversification is certainly a positive factor in the long-term, I do not see this fully offsetting the slowdown and risks in the lending segment business as the profit margins on these segments, as of now, are significantly lower than lending segments. The lending segment&#39;s contribution profit to revenue margin was 65.25% compared to 23.58% for financial services and technology platforms. Therefore, I believe there are significant headwinds to SoFi&#39;s growth potential in 2024 due to macroeconomic conditions.</p><h2 id=\"id_631715272\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Valuation</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some investors bullish on SoFi&#39;s prospects may argue that the company&#39;s strong growth and expected profitability in 2024 and onwards constitute a bullish outlook along with a premium valuation. However, even when considering the company&#39;s past strong growth and expected profitability, I believe SoFi&#39;s valuation is too expensive today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The company, at the time of writing, has a market capitalization of $6.89 billion today with a 2024 forward price-to-earnings of 96.67. 2024 is the first year SoFi is expected to report profitability, so one may say that the price-to-earnings ratio is high. Thus, looking at 2025, SoFi has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.78.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For the current valuation to be reasonable where investors could expect a valuation appreciation, at the absolute minimum, 2025 forward price-to-earnings multiple should be undervalued leaving room for valuation appreciation throughout 2024. However, considering the current macroeconomic condition, I do not believe there is much upside potential at this level. Not only will bonds be more attractive even after 3 rate cuts at the target federal funds rate of 4.5 to 4.75%, but the macroeconomic conditions will weigh on the company&#39;s growth expectations. For example, the company&#39;s 2025 forward price-to-earnings ratio is 27.78, which means that the investors are paying 27.78 times the company&#39;s earnings for a single share. Not taking intensive growth into account, this means that the annual return an investor could expect on investment is about 3.6% (1/27.78) compared to the treasury bond return of about 4.5%. Investors pay a premium on the stock over bonds because of an upside potential justifying high valuation, but if the market environment does not allow this, I do not think a premium valuation should be rewarded as it is too risky. Therefore, it is likely that there are more risks than reward potential in SoFi&#39;s current valuation.</p><h2 id=\"id_3804928683\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risk to Thesis</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">My bearish thesis relies on souring macroeconomic conditions. However, if it is the case that the macroeconomic conditions do not worsen in 2024, my thesis could be at risk. SoFi&#39;s management team, during the 2023Q4 earnings call, mentioned that their outlook is conservative. As such, if it is the case that the management&#39;s initial 2024 outlook is too conservative due to the economic slowdown&#39;s magnitude being shallow, my bearish thesis could be at risk</p><h2 id=\"id_2599730362\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Going into 2024, I believe the risks to reward potentially are unfavorable for SoFi as the macroeconomic risks are expected to create strong headwinds for the company. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate likely pressuring the company&#39;s net interest income and margin. Further, as the consumers&#39; financial health continues to deteriorate, the company may experience higher levels of delinquency rates or be pressured to be more conservative in its loan underwriting. Finally, given the massive macroeconomic headwinds in the upcoming quarters, I believe the current valuation is too expensive. Therefore, SoFi is a sell.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Technologies: Pessimism Is Justified</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Technologies: Pessimism Is Justified\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-18 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4678810-sofi-pessimism-is-justified><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe potential decline in interest rates could negatively impact SoFi's net interest income.Consumers' weakening financial health may lead to higher delinquency rates and limit SOFI's future ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4678810-sofi-pessimism-is-justified\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4678810-sofi-pessimism-is-justified","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1168982126","content_text":"SummaryThe potential decline in interest rates could negatively impact SoFi's net interest income.Consumers' weakening financial health may lead to higher delinquency rates and limit SOFI's future growth.The company's valuation, in the current environment, is likely expensive.IntroductionIn my previous articles, I had a sell rating on SoFi Technologies. In both of the articles, my primary argument for a sell thesis was the potential macroeconomic headwind. At the time, I believed that the slowly declining consumers' financial health could create a headwind for the company going forward. Today, I continue to stand by my reasoning from the previous articles. SoFi's stock has declined about 5% since the publication of my previous article compared to a 20% increase in the S&P 500 during this time. Further, I believe the macroeconomic conditions have significantly worsened with initial signs of weakness in the market leading to the continuation of my negative view of the company. Thus, I believe my bearish case on SoFi strengthened in the past few months. Consumers' financial conditions are weakening, which will likely affect SoFi's bottom line and also pressure the company to expand more conservatively. Finally, with the expectation of a declining federal funds rate in 2024, SoFi's net interest income, NII, could be negatively affected. Therefore, I am maintaining my sell thesis on SoFi.Declining Interest RateSoFi had a great calendar year in 2023. The company's top and bottom-line growth was extremely strong. In the 2023Q4 earnings report, SoFi reported a net interest income of $389.6 million which was up 87% from the prior-year period. The company was able to report such exceptional NII growth as a result of increasing interest rates on interest earnings assets by 3 basis points sequentially and 8 basis points year-over-year. Considering that the company's total revenue for the quarter was $615 million, I believe it is reasonable to say SoFi, being a fintech company, is heavily reliant on interest income.Unfortunately, SoFi's interest income could be challenged in 2024. During the last FOMC meeting of 2023 held in December, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the organization may cut the federal funds rate 3 times in 2024 effectively lowering the market interest rate. Some economists including Goldman Sachs (GS) are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 5 times, which is far more aggressive than the Fed estimates.The lowering of the interest rate will likely impact SoFi's interest income on its loans as the interest rate on the loans declines. The magnitude of the impact will ultimately depend on the pace at which the Federal Reserve utilizes in lowering the federal funds rate, but as the market suggests, I believe it is highly likely that SoFi's net interest income to be pressured going into 2024.The initial example of the potentially lower interest rates impacting banks came from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) during their earnings call on January 12th. The company said that the \"lower interest rates will decrease NII\". As such, it is highly likely for SoFi to see the impact of the macroeconomic conditions in 2024.Consumers' Financial HealthOn top of the potential headwind forming from the interest rate environment for SoFi, consumers' weakening financial health will also likely pressure the company. Weakening financial health could not only increase the delinquency rates, but it could also pressure the company to be more conservative in its underwriting limiting future growth.As the chart below shows, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, delinquency rates on all consumer loans have continued to increase for the past several quarters. In the most recent quarter, 2023Q3, the loan delinquency rates reached 2.53%, which was 6.75% growth quarter-over-quarter. Beyond the delinquency rate that is higher than pre-pandemic levels, the rate at which the rate is continually increasing is alarming. From 2023Q1 to 2023Q2 and from 2022Q4 to 2023Q1, the delinquency rate rose 6.76% and 7.25% quarter-over-quarter, respectively, which means that there was no slowdown in the increase of the delinquency rate for the past few quarters. As such, with no meaningful slowdowns, it could be likely for the consumers' financial health to worsen going forward.Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate ChartSt. Louis Federal ReserveIn addition to the historical data provided by the Federal Reserve, JP Morgan's earnings report, as mentioned earlier, has hinted at continually increasing consumer delinquency rates. The company is expecting the charge-off rates to hit 3.5% compared to 2.79% in 2023.Overall, I believe it is likely for the consumers' financial health to continue declining, and because the majority of SoFi's bottom line comes from its lending business, there will likely be a significant impact on SoFi's business if the consumers' financial health continues to deteriorate.Management Team's ViewSoFi reported a stellar 2023Q4 earnings report. Everything from top to bottom-line results were strong as the revenue grew 35% year-over-year and the company reached GAAP profitability on expanding margins. However, the continuation of these positive results is unlikely in 2024.In addition to my view of the macroeconomic conditions involving consumers' financial health and the interest rate environment, SoFi's management team also provided a sour 2024 outlook. During the earnings call, the company's management team said that the company is \" taking a conservative and pragmatic approach toward [the] Lending segment revenue, expecting to largely maintain it, given our concerns about the 2024 macro environment as it relates to uncertainty on rates, the economy, and industry liquidity.\" As a result, SoFi is expecting \"the Lending segment revenue to be 92% to 95% of 2023 lending revenue,\" hinting at a decline in the company's highest margin business segment. In the fourth quarter, the lending segment's contribution profit was $226 million compared to the financial services and technology platform's $25 and $30 million, respectively. As such, the macroeconomic conditions are expected to have a profound effect on SoFi throughout 2024.One may argue that SoFi's diversification process could offset these macroeconomic risks in 2024. The management team said that financial services and technology platforms will drive growth in 2024 increasing the percentage of adjusted revenue to 50% from 38% in 2023. While diversification is certainly a positive factor in the long-term, I do not see this fully offsetting the slowdown and risks in the lending segment business as the profit margins on these segments, as of now, are significantly lower than lending segments. The lending segment's contribution profit to revenue margin was 65.25% compared to 23.58% for financial services and technology platforms. Therefore, I believe there are significant headwinds to SoFi's growth potential in 2024 due to macroeconomic conditions.ValuationSome investors bullish on SoFi's prospects may argue that the company's strong growth and expected profitability in 2024 and onwards constitute a bullish outlook along with a premium valuation. However, even when considering the company's past strong growth and expected profitability, I believe SoFi's valuation is too expensive today.The company, at the time of writing, has a market capitalization of $6.89 billion today with a 2024 forward price-to-earnings of 96.67. 2024 is the first year SoFi is expected to report profitability, so one may say that the price-to-earnings ratio is high. Thus, looking at 2025, SoFi has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27.78.For the current valuation to be reasonable where investors could expect a valuation appreciation, at the absolute minimum, 2025 forward price-to-earnings multiple should be undervalued leaving room for valuation appreciation throughout 2024. However, considering the current macroeconomic condition, I do not believe there is much upside potential at this level. Not only will bonds be more attractive even after 3 rate cuts at the target federal funds rate of 4.5 to 4.75%, but the macroeconomic conditions will weigh on the company's growth expectations. For example, the company's 2025 forward price-to-earnings ratio is 27.78, which means that the investors are paying 27.78 times the company's earnings for a single share. Not taking intensive growth into account, this means that the annual return an investor could expect on investment is about 3.6% (1/27.78) compared to the treasury bond return of about 4.5%. Investors pay a premium on the stock over bonds because of an upside potential justifying high valuation, but if the market environment does not allow this, I do not think a premium valuation should be rewarded as it is too risky. Therefore, it is likely that there are more risks than reward potential in SoFi's current valuation.Risk to ThesisMy bearish thesis relies on souring macroeconomic conditions. However, if it is the case that the macroeconomic conditions do not worsen in 2024, my thesis could be at risk. SoFi's management team, during the 2023Q4 earnings call, mentioned that their outlook is conservative. As such, if it is the case that the management's initial 2024 outlook is too conservative due to the economic slowdown's magnitude being shallow, my bearish thesis could be at riskSummaryGoing into 2024, I believe the risks to reward potentially are unfavorable for SoFi as the macroeconomic risks are expected to create strong headwinds for the company. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate likely pressuring the company's net interest income and margin. Further, as the consumers' financial health continues to deteriorate, the company may experience higher levels of delinquency rates or be pressured to be more conservative in its loan underwriting. Finally, given the massive macroeconomic headwinds in the upcoming quarters, I believe the current valuation is too expensive. Therefore, SoFi is a sell.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":270191435223232,"gmtCreate":1706973813264,"gmtModify":1706973817755,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PGY\">$Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ </a> I have bought 4000 shares @1.11. Previously sold at 1.58. Sold some options as well. Hopefully this is one that can possibly 2x one day. More vested interest with SoFi at the moment as I see Pagaya as a slow play. Upstart is a great milking cow with trading using options.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PGY\">$Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ </a> I have bought 4000 shares @1.11. Previously sold at 1.58. Sold some options as well. Hopefully this is one that can possibly 2x one day. More vested interest with SoFi at the moment as I see Pagaya as a slow play. Upstart is a great milking cow with trading using options.","text":"$Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ I have bought 4000 shares @1.11. Previously sold at 1.58. Sold some options as well. Hopefully this is one that can possibly 2x one day. More vested interest with SoFi at the moment as I see Pagaya as a slow play. Upstart is a great milking cow with trading using options.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/270191435223232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":268421070938248,"gmtCreate":1706555547897,"gmtModify":1706555551127,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a> 2024 should see 12-13.0","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ </a> 2024 should see 12-13.0","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 2024 should see 12-13.0","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/268421070938248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263876665381000,"gmtCreate":1705458664205,"gmtModify":1705458668766,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is certainly a manipulative bear report. To be realistic as we could, listen to CEO talk about student loans, this writer try to downplay by using past history. Its so obvious, there was not a single commendable writes on the company.&nbsp;","listText":"This is certainly a manipulative bear report. To be realistic as we could, listen to CEO talk about student loans, this writer try to downplay by using past history. Its so obvious, there was not a single commendable writes on the company.&nbsp;","text":"This is certainly a manipulative bear report. To be realistic as we could, listen to CEO talk about student loans, this writer try to downplay by using past history. Its so obvious, there was not a single commendable writes on the company.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263876665381000","repostId":"2404847209","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2404847209","pubTimestamp":1705448401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2404847209?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-17 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sell SoFi Technologies Because Of Macro Demand And Supply Challenges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2404847209","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SoFi's products are mature and growing modestly, with competition in the market being strong.SoFi's rapid growth plans are risky and likely to be disappointing relative to its current valuation, as history shows.SoFi's strategy to build trust and a lifetime relationship with members is unlikely to overcome its strong competition.The company's valuation is based more on hope than on the reality of supply and demand.   RTimages/iStock via Getty Images Most commentary about fintech company SoFi  focuses on “micro” issues, most typically some measure of its revenue and customer growth. I’m adding to the conversation by focusing on SoFi’s “macro” issues, namely:  Demand – What are the growth rates of the products that SoFi is competing for?I conclude that SoFi’s products are mature and growing modestly, and that its competition is generally pretty strong. SoFi’s rapid growth plans are therefore risky, and history says that the results will be disappointing relative to its current valuation.","content":"<html><body><ul><li>SoFi's products are mature and growing modestly, with competition in the market being strong.</li><li>SoFi's rapid growth plans are risky and likely to be disappointing relative to its current valuation, as history shows.</li><li>SoFi's strategy to build trust and a lifetime relationship with members is unlikely to overcome its strong competition.</li><li>The company's valuation is based more on hope than on the reality of supply and demand.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1022px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>RTimages/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Most commentary about fintech company SoFi (<span>NASDAQ:SOFI</span>) focuses on “micro” issues, most typically some measure of its revenue and customer growth. I’m adding to the conversation by focusing on SoFi’s “macro” issues, namely:</p> <ul> <li>Demand – What are<span> the growth rates of the products that SoFi is competing for?</span> </li> <li>Supply – What does the competition for these products look like?</li> </ul> <p>I conclude that SoFi’s products are mature and growing modestly, and that its competition is generally pretty strong. SoFi’s rapid growth plans are therefore risky, and history says that the results will be disappointing relative to its current valuation. SoFi is currently selling at 240% of tangible book value (rich for a bank) and a silly 137 P/E of ’24 expected EPS of $0.06 (Seeking Alpha).</p> <p>But first…</p> <h2><strong>What is SoFi?</strong></h2> <p>SoFi today is a<span> version of a commercial bank plus a software company. As the company says in </span>its latest 10-K<span>:</span></p> <blockquote><p><em>“We are a member-centric, one-stop shop for financial services that, through our Lending and Financial Services products, allows members to borrow, save, spend, invest and protect their money.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>That is exactly what the average bank does. In fact, SoFi is a bank holding company. Like any bank, it has some differentiating features. SoFi is:</p> <ul> <li>Fully online, with no branches. This does not make SoFi unique – there are other online banks, and the great bulk of banks have online access. But it is somewhat different.</li> <li>A consumer bank, with few business customers.</li> <li>Focused on two unusual loan products – student loans and unsecured personal loans. It also has fledgling home mortgage and credit card businesses.</li> </ul> <p>SoFi’s software company is pretty mysterious, at least for this non-tech-savvy writer. I’ll leave the description to the company:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Our products and capabilities are designed to appeal to enterprises, such as financial services institutions that subscribe to our enterprise services and have become interconnected with the SoFi platform. We have continued to expand our platform capabilities for enterprises through our acquisition of Galileo in 2020, which provides technology platform services to financial and non-financial institutions…and the Technisys Merger in the first quarter of 2022, through which we added a cloud native digital and core banking platform into our technology platform offerings and expanded our technology platform services to a broader international market.” </em>(SoFi 10-K)</p></blockquote> <p>That’s all I have to say about it.</p> <h2><strong>SoFi’s demand challenge</strong></h2> <p>Any business’s growth comes from two sources – (1) organic growth of its product categories, and (2) market share. In this section I’ll present the organic stories.</p> <p>Let’s start with SoFi’s original product, <strong><em>student loans</em></strong>. This chart shows a history of U.S. student loan debt growth:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/12/47293503-17050793316069753.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Federal Reserve</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Source: </em><em>Federal Reserve</em></p> <p>Rapid deceleration to now shrinkage, with a lot more shrinkage ahead because of government-mandated student loan forbearances. So student loan debt is the opposite of a growth product.</p> <p>On to SoFi’s current primary loan product, <strong><em>unsecured consumer loans</em></strong>. This chart shows the growth rate history of credit card and other consumer credit, excluding mortgage, auto and student loan debt:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/12/47293503-1705079354066716.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Federal Reserve</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Unsecured consumer credit grew by only 3% a year from 2010 up until the Pandemic. It then had a growth spurt after the COVID checks stopped coming in mid-’21, but is now in the 3% range again. Not a growth product.</p> <p>Finally, the growth rate of SoFi’s new hot product, namely <strong><em>consumer deposits</em></strong>:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/12/47293503-17050793312861838.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Federal Reserve</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Up until the Pandemic consumer deposits grew by 6% a year. Not growthy, but not too bad. Then deposits surged as consumers put much of their COVID checks in the bank. But now consumers are spending down those excess deposits, so growth for the next few years will certainly be well below 6%.</p> <p>Net/net, it cannot be said that SoFi is operating in growth businesses. That’s why the average bank P/E ratio is about 9, or less than half the market average.</p> <h2><strong>SoFi’s supply challenge</strong></h2> <p>Does SoFi offer products to underserved customer bases? Not really.</p> <p><strong><em>Student lending </em></strong>is likely the one product where SoFi faces relatively weak competition. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NRDS\">NerdWallet</a> lists these companies as its main competition: LendKey, College Ave, RISLA and ISL. I haven’t heard of them either.</p> <p><strong><em>Unsecured consumer loans </em></strong>are a very different story. Heard of JPMorgan Chase? Capital One? American Express? Discover? Citibank? Plus Upstart, Lending Club and other fintechs. Plus loads of banks.</p> <p><strong><em>Consumer deposits </em></strong>are obviously even worse. Clearly every bank in the country is a competitor. Plus nonbanks like American Express, Schwab, Goldman Sachs, brokerage firms and fintechs like Chime and Venmo.</p> <p><strong><em>Home mortgages? </em></strong>This is a new SoFi product. No banking product is likely more competitive than mortgage lending, where the #1 lender has only a 7% market share. And #2 lender Rocket Mortgage could only break even during last Q3.</p> <h2><strong>Financial services growth stories therefore require taking market share. Which is seriously problematic.</strong></h2> <p>Most consumer products are sold with emotional pitches. Think how many car ads have dogs in them. But how often do you get a positive emotion from a financial product? So financial services companies are forced, far more than other consumer products companies, to offer better features than competitors if they seek market share gains. And those features are pretty much limited to:</p> <ul> <li> <strong><em>Price. </em></strong>Namely lower loan yields and higher deposit rates.</li> <li> <strong><em>Underwriting.</em></strong> Taking more risk of default by increasing approval rates or making bigger loans.</li> </ul> <p>How can a financial services company consistently give up price and still earn a respectable profit? At least in theory, it can employ technology to its lower administrative, marketing, and other costs below competitors’. And how can a financial company loosen its lending standards and still earn that respectable profit? By being a better credit analyst than peers. Both strategies are good in theory, but rare in practice.</p> <h2><strong>The history of price- or credit-based market share strategies is not good.</strong></h2> <p>Some examples:</p> <p><strong><em>Price strategy: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>. </em></strong>Eliminating trading commissions was a bold move. The payoff? $5.5 billion of cumulative losses to date. A $38 IPO has turned into a $12 stock price at present. 2024 earnings are expected to be $0.02 per share (Seeking Alpha).</p> <p><strong><em>Price strategy: Redfin. </em></strong>Another low-commission competitor, this time of realtor commissions. The payoff? $800 million of cumulative losses, which is all but $6 million of what investors put into the company. I do not believe it has had a profitable year in its 21-year history. Are brighter days ahead? Seeking Alpha finds that Wall Street analysts expect a $1.05 per share <em>loss</em> this year. The $15 IPO in 2017 is $10 today.</p> <p><strong><em>Credit strategy: Subprime mortgage lenders. </em></strong>Many lenders decided in the early ‘00s that they had cracked the code on subprime (average 600 credit scores) mortgages. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says that the number of subprime loan originations surged from 552,000 in 2001 to 2.3 million in 2005. This presumed credit breakthrough resulted in nearly universal bankruptcies for subprime mortgage originators by 2008.</p> <p><strong><em>Credit strategy: Subprime auto lenders. </em></strong>From the American Bankruptcy Institute:</p> <blockquote><p>“<em>In the early 1990s, the subprime automobile finance industry was regarded as a Wall Street darling. Earning growth rates of 100% were not uncommon as capital poured into the industry…In January 1997, Mercury Finance, the largest independent subprime auto finance company, disclosed accounting irregularities. This event started a chain reaction that led to the collapse of many large players in the industry.</em><em>”</em></p></blockquote> <p>One more. <strong><em>Credit strategy: Credit card issuer NextCard. </em></strong>From the Los Angeles Times:</p> <blockquote><p>“<em>Bankrupt credit card lender NextCard is planning to liquidate, according to court documents…A onetime darling of the dot-com boom, NextCard fell into trouble with regulators a year ago after issuing too many credit cards to deadbeat borrowers. Shareholders aren’t expected to receive any payments from the liquidation. NextCard’s stock peaked at $53.12 in 1999.</em>”</p></blockquote> <h2><strong>So how does SoFi expect to profitably take market share?</strong></h2> <p>First, so far the profitability thing hasn’t been happening. To date, SoFi generated a $1.9 billion loss, including $340 million of losses during the first 9 months of last year. But here is SoFi’s plan, with the key points underlined by me:</p> <blockquote> <p>“<em>Our strategy, which is rooted in what we refer to as our “Financial Services Productivity Loop”, is centered around building trust and a lifetime relationship with our members, which we believe will help build a sustainable competitive advantage…In order to deliver on our strategy, we must develop best-in-class unit economics and best-in-class products that build trust and reliability between our members and our platform. Our acquisition of SoFi Bank was also an important step...”</em> (SoFi 2022 10-K)</p> <p><em>“I [the CEO] remain confident that no company is better positioned than SoFi to be the winner that takes most in the digital transformation of financial services…Add to that, the regulatory requirements and sizable financial capital and resources required and it's fair to conclude, SoFi is in a class of one.” </em> (SoFi Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)</p> </blockquote> <p>Do you see any potential holes in this plan? I do.</p> <h3><strong>Strategy hole #1: “Our acquisition of SoFi Bank was an important step.”</strong></h3> <p>Really? That puts SoFi in the exclusive club of 4,236 other banks. A bank charter is clearly not a competitive advantage for SoFi. And the other 4,235 other banks also meet the “regulatory requirements” required to maintain the bank charter. This supposed advantage only makes sense if you assume that SoFi’s only competition is other fintechs.</p> <h3><strong>Strategy hole #2: “Sizable financial capital and resources required.”</strong></h3> <p>Yes, SoFi is big for a fintech. It has $5 billion of capital and last year spent about $500 million on technology and product development and $725 million on marketing. But Capital One is also a competitor. It has $53 billion of equity capital. My calculator says that $53 billion &gt; $5 billion. Capital One spent nearly $4 billion on marketing last year. Capital One doesn’t disclose its tech spending, but it did say this in its ’22 annual report:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“A key part of our strategic focus is the development and use of efficient, flexible computer and operational systems, such as cloud technology, to support complex marketing and account management strategies, the servicing of our customers, and the development of new and diversified products.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>And JPMorgan Chase, from its ’22 annual report:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“AI and the raw material that feeds it, data, will be critical to our company’s future success — the importance of implementing new technologies simply cannot be overstated. We already have more than 300 AI use cases in production today for risk, prospecting, marketing, customer experience and fraud prevention...”</em></p></blockquote> <p>SoFi is far, far from alone in recognizing the importance of technology innovation and marketing, and having the financial and technical resources to do something about it.</p> <h3><strong>Strategy hole #3: “We must develop best-in-class unit economics and best-in-class products”. </strong></h3> <p><em>Stating</em> that goal is easy; <em>doing</em> it is hard. Is there evidence to date that SoFi is doing it? Not that I can see. Those $1.9 billion of losses to date, and minimal earnings expected for this year, says that SoFi is far from achieving best-in-class economics. While SoFi is expected to generate a 1% return on equity next year, Discover is expected to earn 23% (Seeking Alpha).</p> <p>One seeming success story for SoFi has been a dramatic growth in consumer deposits; they more than doubled through the first 9 months of last year. Is it because of SoFi’s best-in-class deposit products? Or price? You tell me after you look at this chart:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/12/47293503-17050793313962612.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Company financial reports</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Sources: </em><em>Company financial reports</em></p> <p>SoFi pays way more than the branch banks, and in line with the online banks. Nothing special that I can see.</p> <h3><strong>Strategy hole #4: “No company is better positioned than SoFi to be the winner.”</strong></h3> <p>First, it is ludicrous to believe that <em>any </em>company is going to be <em>the winner</em> in financial services. Rather, this is the standard fantasy of the “industry disruptor” fintech pitch. As proof, here are the fantasies of other fintech disruptors:</p> <blockquote> <p><strong><em><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">Rocket Companies</a>.</em></strong> “<em>As I look around Rocket, I see a company with the talent, the culture and the assets to drive meaningful disruption and transformation. I am beyond excited for the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead of us</em>.” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)</p> <p><strong><em>Upstart. </em></strong>“<em>We're making rapid progress in building the world's first and best AI lending platform. We do this with a focus on our mission, and with an optimistic eye toward the transformation of an industry that is inevitable over the next decade and beyond.</em>” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)</p> <p><strong><em>Robinhood. </em></strong> “<em>Robinhood is no longer just a trading app, we've been rapidly evolving into a broad financial services platform serving multiple financial needs, including spending, savings, and retirement. Our ambition and the opportunity ahead of us has expanded greatly.</em>” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)</p> </blockquote> <p>Which disruptor are you going to believe? My answer – none of them.</p> <h2><strong>Summing up. Sell this stock. And the risk to shorting.</strong></h2> <p>On the one hand, there is the disruptor theme pitched by management and desperately believed by many looking for the next monster tech story. On the other hand is the reality of slow demand and abundant supply. I recommend reality.</p> <p>There are two main risks to my short thesis. One is continued investor speculation that self-proclaimed disruptors will deliver as promised. Dreams die hard, so it is reasonable to expect that speculative rallies will continue to occasionally recur.</p> <div></div> <p>The other risk is that my supply/demand thesis is wrong; that SoFi somehow creates a differentiated and profitable market niche. With product categories this commoditized, and with the substantial amount of competition for these products, that seems highly unlikely, but nothing in this world is absolute.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sell SoFi Technologies Because Of Macro Demand And Supply Challenges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSell SoFi Technologies Because Of Macro Demand And Supply Challenges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-17 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663157-sell-sofi-technologies-because-of-macro-demand-and-supply-challenges><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SoFi's products are mature and growing modestly, with competition in the market being strong.SoFi's rapid growth plans are risky and likely to be disappointing relative to its current valuation, as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663157-sell-sofi-technologies-because-of-macro-demand-and-supply-challenges\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/179299134/image_179299134.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663157-sell-sofi-technologies-because-of-macro-demand-and-supply-challenges","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2404847209","content_text":"SoFi's products are mature and growing modestly, with competition in the market being strong.SoFi's rapid growth plans are risky and likely to be disappointing relative to its current valuation, as history shows.SoFi's strategy to build trust and a lifetime relationship with members is unlikely to overcome its strong competition.The company's valuation is based more on hope than on the reality of supply and demand.   RTimages/iStock via Getty Images Most commentary about fintech company SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) focuses on “micro” issues, most typically some measure of its revenue and customer growth. I’m adding to the conversation by focusing on SoFi’s “macro” issues, namely:  Demand – What are the growth rates of the products that SoFi is competing for?  Supply – What does the competition for these products look like?  I conclude that SoFi’s products are mature and growing modestly, and that its competition is generally pretty strong. SoFi’s rapid growth plans are therefore risky, and history says that the results will be disappointing relative to its current valuation. SoFi is currently selling at 240% of tangible book value (rich for a bank) and a silly 137 P/E of ’24 expected EPS of $0.06 (Seeking Alpha). But first… What is SoFi? SoFi today is a version of a commercial bank plus a software company. As the company says in its latest 10-K: “We are a member-centric, one-stop shop for financial services that, through our Lending and Financial Services products, allows members to borrow, save, spend, invest and protect their money.” That is exactly what the average bank does. In fact, SoFi is a bank holding company. Like any bank, it has some differentiating features. SoFi is:  Fully online, with no branches. This does not make SoFi unique – there are other online banks, and the great bulk of banks have online access. But it is somewhat different. A consumer bank, with few business customers. Focused on two unusual loan products – student loans and unsecured personal loans. It also has fledgling home mortgage and credit card businesses.  SoFi’s software company is pretty mysterious, at least for this non-tech-savvy writer. I’ll leave the description to the company: “Our products and capabilities are designed to appeal to enterprises, such as financial services institutions that subscribe to our enterprise services and have become interconnected with the SoFi platform. We have continued to expand our platform capabilities for enterprises through our acquisition of Galileo in 2020, which provides technology platform services to financial and non-financial institutions…and the Technisys Merger in the first quarter of 2022, through which we added a cloud native digital and core banking platform into our technology platform offerings and expanded our technology platform services to a broader international market.” (SoFi 10-K) That’s all I have to say about it. SoFi’s demand challenge Any business’s growth comes from two sources – (1) organic growth of its product categories, and (2) market share. In this section I’ll present the organic stories. Let’s start with SoFi’s original product, student loans. This chart shows a history of U.S. student loan debt growth: Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve Rapid deceleration to now shrinkage, with a lot more shrinkage ahead because of government-mandated student loan forbearances. So student loan debt is the opposite of a growth product. On to SoFi’s current primary loan product, unsecured consumer loans. This chart shows the growth rate history of credit card and other consumer credit, excluding mortgage, auto and student loan debt: Federal Reserve Unsecured consumer credit grew by only 3% a year from 2010 up until the Pandemic. It then had a growth spurt after the COVID checks stopped coming in mid-’21, but is now in the 3% range again. Not a growth product. Finally, the growth rate of SoFi’s new hot product, namely consumer deposits: Federal Reserve Up until the Pandemic consumer deposits grew by 6% a year. Not growthy, but not too bad. Then deposits surged as consumers put much of their COVID checks in the bank. But now consumers are spending down those excess deposits, so growth for the next few years will certainly be well below 6%. Net/net, it cannot be said that SoFi is operating in growth businesses. That’s why the average bank P/E ratio is about 9, or less than half the market average. SoFi’s supply challenge Does SoFi offer products to underserved customer bases? Not really. Student lending is likely the one product where SoFi faces relatively weak competition. NerdWallet lists these companies as its main competition: LendKey, College Ave, RISLA and ISL. I haven’t heard of them either. Unsecured consumer loans are a very different story. Heard of JPMorgan Chase? Capital One? American Express? Discover? Citibank? Plus Upstart, Lending Club and other fintechs. Plus loads of banks. Consumer deposits are obviously even worse. Clearly every bank in the country is a competitor. Plus nonbanks like American Express, Schwab, Goldman Sachs, brokerage firms and fintechs like Chime and Venmo. Home mortgages? This is a new SoFi product. No banking product is likely more competitive than mortgage lending, where the #1 lender has only a 7% market share. And #2 lender Rocket Mortgage could only break even during last Q3. Financial services growth stories therefore require taking market share. Which is seriously problematic. Most consumer products are sold with emotional pitches. Think how many car ads have dogs in them. But how often do you get a positive emotion from a financial product? So financial services companies are forced, far more than other consumer products companies, to offer better features than competitors if they seek market share gains. And those features are pretty much limited to:   Price. Namely lower loan yields and higher deposit rates.  Underwriting. Taking more risk of default by increasing approval rates or making bigger loans.  How can a financial services company consistently give up price and still earn a respectable profit? At least in theory, it can employ technology to its lower administrative, marketing, and other costs below competitors’. And how can a financial company loosen its lending standards and still earn that respectable profit? By being a better credit analyst than peers. Both strategies are good in theory, but rare in practice. The history of price- or credit-based market share strategies is not good. Some examples: Price strategy: Robinhood. Eliminating trading commissions was a bold move. The payoff? $5.5 billion of cumulative losses to date. A $38 IPO has turned into a $12 stock price at present. 2024 earnings are expected to be $0.02 per share (Seeking Alpha). Price strategy: Redfin. Another low-commission competitor, this time of realtor commissions. The payoff? $800 million of cumulative losses, which is all but $6 million of what investors put into the company. I do not believe it has had a profitable year in its 21-year history. Are brighter days ahead? Seeking Alpha finds that Wall Street analysts expect a $1.05 per share loss this year. The $15 IPO in 2017 is $10 today. Credit strategy: Subprime mortgage lenders. Many lenders decided in the early ‘00s that they had cracked the code on subprime (average 600 credit scores) mortgages. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says that the number of subprime loan originations surged from 552,000 in 2001 to 2.3 million in 2005. This presumed credit breakthrough resulted in nearly universal bankruptcies for subprime mortgage originators by 2008. Credit strategy: Subprime auto lenders. From the American Bankruptcy Institute: “In the early 1990s, the subprime automobile finance industry was regarded as a Wall Street darling. Earning growth rates of 100% were not uncommon as capital poured into the industry…In January 1997, Mercury Finance, the largest independent subprime auto finance company, disclosed accounting irregularities. This event started a chain reaction that led to the collapse of many large players in the industry.” One more. Credit strategy: Credit card issuer NextCard. From the Los Angeles Times: “Bankrupt credit card lender NextCard is planning to liquidate, according to court documents…A onetime darling of the dot-com boom, NextCard fell into trouble with regulators a year ago after issuing too many credit cards to deadbeat borrowers. Shareholders aren’t expected to receive any payments from the liquidation. NextCard’s stock peaked at $53.12 in 1999.” So how does SoFi expect to profitably take market share? First, so far the profitability thing hasn’t been happening. To date, SoFi generated a $1.9 billion loss, including $340 million of losses during the first 9 months of last year. But here is SoFi’s plan, with the key points underlined by me:  “Our strategy, which is rooted in what we refer to as our “Financial Services Productivity Loop”, is centered around building trust and a lifetime relationship with our members, which we believe will help build a sustainable competitive advantage…In order to deliver on our strategy, we must develop best-in-class unit economics and best-in-class products that build trust and reliability between our members and our platform. Our acquisition of SoFi Bank was also an important step...” (SoFi 2022 10-K) “I [the CEO] remain confident that no company is better positioned than SoFi to be the winner that takes most in the digital transformation of financial services…Add to that, the regulatory requirements and sizable financial capital and resources required and it's fair to conclude, SoFi is in a class of one.”  (SoFi Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)  Do you see any potential holes in this plan? I do. Strategy hole #1: “Our acquisition of SoFi Bank was an important step.” Really? That puts SoFi in the exclusive club of 4,236 other banks. A bank charter is clearly not a competitive advantage for SoFi. And the other 4,235 other banks also meet the “regulatory requirements” required to maintain the bank charter. This supposed advantage only makes sense if you assume that SoFi’s only competition is other fintechs. Strategy hole #2: “Sizable financial capital and resources required.” Yes, SoFi is big for a fintech. It has $5 billion of capital and last year spent about $500 million on technology and product development and $725 million on marketing. But Capital One is also a competitor. It has $53 billion of equity capital. My calculator says that $53 billion > $5 billion. Capital One spent nearly $4 billion on marketing last year. Capital One doesn’t disclose its tech spending, but it did say this in its ’22 annual report: “A key part of our strategic focus is the development and use of efficient, flexible computer and operational systems, such as cloud technology, to support complex marketing and account management strategies, the servicing of our customers, and the development of new and diversified products.” And JPMorgan Chase, from its ’22 annual report: “AI and the raw material that feeds it, data, will be critical to our company’s future success — the importance of implementing new technologies simply cannot be overstated. We already have more than 300 AI use cases in production today for risk, prospecting, marketing, customer experience and fraud prevention...” SoFi is far, far from alone in recognizing the importance of technology innovation and marketing, and having the financial and technical resources to do something about it. Strategy hole #3: “We must develop best-in-class unit economics and best-in-class products”.  Stating that goal is easy; doing it is hard. Is there evidence to date that SoFi is doing it? Not that I can see. Those $1.9 billion of losses to date, and minimal earnings expected for this year, says that SoFi is far from achieving best-in-class economics. While SoFi is expected to generate a 1% return on equity next year, Discover is expected to earn 23% (Seeking Alpha). One seeming success story for SoFi has been a dramatic growth in consumer deposits; they more than doubled through the first 9 months of last year. Is it because of SoFi’s best-in-class deposit products? Or price? You tell me after you look at this chart: Company financial reports Sources: Company financial reports SoFi pays way more than the branch banks, and in line with the online banks. Nothing special that I can see. Strategy hole #4: “No company is better positioned than SoFi to be the winner.” First, it is ludicrous to believe that any company is going to be the winner in financial services. Rather, this is the standard fantasy of the “industry disruptor” fintech pitch. As proof, here are the fantasies of other fintech disruptors:  Rocket Companies. “As I look around Rocket, I see a company with the talent, the culture and the assets to drive meaningful disruption and transformation. I am beyond excited for the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead of us.” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript) Upstart. “We're making rapid progress in building the world's first and best AI lending platform. We do this with a focus on our mission, and with an optimistic eye toward the transformation of an industry that is inevitable over the next decade and beyond.” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript) Robinhood.  “Robinhood is no longer just a trading app, we've been rapidly evolving into a broad financial services platform serving multiple financial needs, including spending, savings, and retirement. Our ambition and the opportunity ahead of us has expanded greatly.” (Q3 ’23 earnings call transcript)  Which disruptor are you going to believe? My answer – none of them. Summing up. Sell this stock. And the risk to shorting. On the one hand, there is the disruptor theme pitched by management and desperately believed by many looking for the next monster tech story. On the other hand is the reality of slow demand and abundant supply. I recommend reality. There are two main risks to my short thesis. One is continued investor speculation that self-proclaimed disruptors will deliver as promised. Dreams die hard, so it is reasonable to expect that speculative rallies will continue to occasionally recur.  The other risk is that my supply/demand thesis is wrong; that SoFi somehow creates a differentiated and profitable market niche. With product categories this commoditized, and with the substantial amount of competition for these products, that seems highly unlikely, but nothing in this world is absolute.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261958665424944,"gmtCreate":1704989636054,"gmtModify":1704989640566,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All news are temporary stimulants for bulls or bears. Use it for our advantage. The principal of wanting buy low and sell high never change.","listText":"All news are temporary stimulants for bulls or bears. Use it for our advantage. The principal of wanting buy low and sell high never change.","text":"All news are temporary stimulants for bulls or bears. Use it for our advantage. The principal of wanting buy low and sell high never change.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261958665424944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252216553054368,"gmtCreate":1702610008822,"gmtModify":1702610011656,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT\">$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ </a> good to go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT\">$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ </a> good to go","text":"$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ good to go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faed42814623f0f95f53b504fbb1695f","width":"730","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252216553054368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252215555948808,"gmtCreate":1702609878690,"gmtModify":1702609882197,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT\">$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ </a> good to ho","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT\">$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ </a> good to ho","text":"$SOFI 20240216 6.0 PUT$ good to ho","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e79e1c17c04a4c3ec9ae4144be02168a","width":"730","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252215555948808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252137578930368,"gmtCreate":1702590739698,"gmtModify":1702590742838,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bca08b8717954aa349736cee55521c8","width":"730","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252137578930368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216285984780528,"gmtCreate":1693834911999,"gmtModify":1693834916552,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?&nbsp;","listText":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?&nbsp;","text":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216285984780528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":215034533859464,"gmtCreate":1693535685626,"gmtModify":1693535689989,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any great trader form a elite team for trading competition?&nbsp;","listText":"Any great trader form a elite team for trading competition?&nbsp;","text":"Any great trader form a elite team for trading competition?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/215034533859464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":215030352556048,"gmtCreate":1693534663358,"gmtModify":1693534669626,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Getting the better of myself always","listText":"Getting the better of myself always","text":"Getting the better of myself always","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/88096a21870cef177a55d92531138181","width":"904","height":"1392"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/215030352556048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":207955552116936,"gmtCreate":1691794363845,"gmtModify":1691794369059,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice quiz","listText":"Nice quiz","text":"Nice quiz","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dfd30d7e1e48b6c1c68c4b4e4c9fc98e","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/207955552116936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9906946196,"gmtCreate":1659483861021,"gmtModify":1705980753606,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"title":"Price movement vs earning reports:- Uber; Roku and Airbnb","htmlText":"There are three shares that I have followed due to some&nbsp;market highlight. Namely Uber; Airbnb and Roku. Of the three, I owned Roku and Airbnb through option assignment. First I would like to comment on the observation of the stocks in relation to the current market sentiment and leave the readers to digest these general observations.US market has went through a huge dipped in first half of 2022 with index pointing to 'extreme fear'. The plunge was so great and fast&nbsp;that almost it was almost quite difficult for retail investors to react to the&nbsp;price drop to take enough time to&nbsp;really think 'what's the next step'. MARKET NEWS seems to DOMINATE and feeds that extreme fear. Every price movement were capped on the upside. Doom and gloom camps are over YouTube (with also bull","listText":"There are three shares that I have followed due to some&nbsp;market highlight. Namely Uber; Airbnb and Roku. Of the three, I owned Roku and Airbnb through option assignment. First I would like to comment on the observation of the stocks in relation to the current market sentiment and leave the readers to digest these general observations.US market has went through a huge dipped in first half of 2022 with index pointing to 'extreme fear'. The plunge was so great and fast&nbsp;that almost it was almost quite difficult for retail investors to react to the&nbsp;price drop to take enough time to&nbsp;really think 'what's the next step'. MARKET NEWS seems to DOMINATE and feeds that extreme fear. Every price movement were capped on the upside. Doom and gloom camps are over YouTube (with also bull","text":"There are three shares that I have followed due to some market highlight. Namely Uber; Airbnb and Roku. Of the three, I owned Roku and Airbnb through option assignment. First I would like to comment on the observation of the stocks in relation to the current market sentiment and leave the readers to digest these general observations.US market has went through a huge dipped in first half of 2022 with index pointing to 'extreme fear'. The plunge was so great and fast that almost it was almost quite difficult for retail investors to react to the price drop to take enough time to really think 'what's the next step'. MARKET NEWS seems to DOMINATE and feeds that extreme fear. Every price movement were capped on the upside. Doom and gloom camps are over YouTube (with also bull","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8dc74e6e93bc4d15993740127a1349f6","width":"1284","height":"2778"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cf0d099f3068eae601c8b6b07b96349","width":"1284","height":"2778"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d11004a32322384dea5238ea2531745c","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":171,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906946196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4113384486789722","authorId":"4113384486789722","name":"superGu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/769b90bb5fa96853bc907abb69f1fe74","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4113384486789722","authorIdStr":"4113384486789722"},"content":"I believe that smaller companies like these three can't really be predicted on a rumor scale. Eg. Bitcoin did not slump when Elon withdrew a billion worth of bitcoin","text":"I believe that smaller companies like these three can't really be predicted on a rumor scale. Eg. Bitcoin did not slump when Elon withdrew a billion worth of bitcoin","html":"I believe that smaller companies like these three can't really be predicted on a rumor scale. Eg. Bitcoin did not slump when Elon withdrew a billion worth of bitcoin"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936575570,"gmtCreate":1662791422390,"gmtModify":1676537142424,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This rebound is necessary for:- the oversold of shares for past weeks resulted&nbsp;funds has to cover back by buying back shares&nbsp;that they do not own.&nbsp;Shares cannot be short sell to zero and not covered back. Borrow shares without returning is stealing.&nbsp;Rebound will not be very long as it's still a bear market, when the funds had their covering, it's just a matter of time, they use 'bad news' to short counters again.True bull run will only come when Fed do a&nbsp;QE or when the valuation is appropriate and economy is recovering.Key for now is:- taking the current plunge and May/June plunge to understand the bottoming of company share price movement. Buy into the dip.","listText":"This rebound is necessary for:- the oversold of shares for past weeks resulted&nbsp;funds has to cover back by buying back shares&nbsp;that they do not own.&nbsp;Shares cannot be short sell to zero and not covered back. Borrow shares without returning is stealing.&nbsp;Rebound will not be very long as it's still a bear market, when the funds had their covering, it's just a matter of time, they use 'bad news' to short counters again.True bull run will only come when Fed do a&nbsp;QE or when the valuation is appropriate and economy is recovering.Key for now is:- taking the current plunge and May/June plunge to understand the bottoming of company share price movement. Buy into the dip.","text":"This rebound is necessary for:- the oversold of shares for past weeks resulted funds has to cover back by buying back shares that they do not own. Shares cannot be short sell to zero and not covered back. Borrow shares without returning is stealing. Rebound will not be very long as it's still a bear market, when the funds had their covering, it's just a matter of time, they use 'bad news' to short counters again.True bull run will only come when Fed do a QE or when the valuation is appropriate and economy is recovering.Key for now is:- taking the current plunge and May/June plunge to understand the bottoming of company share price movement. Buy into the dip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":30,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936575570","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040308356,"gmtCreate":1655606359475,"gmtModify":1676535670060,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am skeptical on crypto. If you HAVE to invest on crypto, please be prepared with a mindset that IF this asset can end up 'negligible'&nbsp;value (If not '$0').&nbsp;The upside of risk of buying a company in crash is it recovers and shoot up. But the absolute downside is, the company went BUSTED and NEVER returns. Many often think of buying dip but few understand the consequence of asset being BUSTED. I still believe there are assets having value, but not on things with speculative but no true intrinsic value. Can we buy bread and butter now with a crypto coin?At the moment, crypto is frozen in trading.","listText":"I am skeptical on crypto. If you HAVE to invest on crypto, please be prepared with a mindset that IF this asset can end up 'negligible'&nbsp;value (If not '$0').&nbsp;The upside of risk of buying a company in crash is it recovers and shoot up. But the absolute downside is, the company went BUSTED and NEVER returns. Many often think of buying dip but few understand the consequence of asset being BUSTED. I still believe there are assets having value, but not on things with speculative but no true intrinsic value. Can we buy bread and butter now with a crypto coin?At the moment, crypto is frozen in trading.","text":"I am skeptical on crypto. If you HAVE to invest on crypto, please be prepared with a mindset that IF this asset can end up 'negligible' value (If not '$0'). The upside of risk of buying a company in crash is it recovers and shoot up. But the absolute downside is, the company went BUSTED and NEVER returns. Many often think of buying dip but few understand the consequence of asset being BUSTED. I still believe there are assets having value, but not on things with speculative but no true intrinsic value. Can we buy bread and butter now with a crypto coin?At the moment, crypto is frozen in trading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040308356","repostId":"2244860704","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244860704","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1655598423,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244860704?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-19 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin's Nosedive through the $20,000 Mark Is a Minsky Moment for Crypto","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244860704","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Bitcoin's nosedive through the $20,000 mark is a Minsky Moment for crypto: 'Psychologically for a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>MW Bitcoin&#39;s nosedive through the $20,000 mark is a Minsky Moment for crypto: &#39;Psychologically for a lot of people, this is galling&#39;</p><p>Mark DeCambre</p><p>&#39;Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,&#39; says Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies. Bitcoin believer Yves Lamoureux of Lamoureux &amp; Co., though, thinks &#39;bitcoin is fine.&#39;</p><p>Is bitcoin  facing a breaking point? That&#39;s what some investors, acolytes and otherwise, might be contemplating, as the cryptocurrency&#39;s descent accelerates over the weekend. The world&#39;s No. 1 digital asset was last trading at $18,654, down more than 70% from its peak of around $65,000, with the broader crypto market feeling to some as if it were in free fall.</p><p>&#34;Psychologically for a lot of people this is galling,&#34; said Charles Hayter, chief executive officer of CryptoCompare, a company that provides data and analytics about the crypto market.</p><p>Hayter, speaking to MarketWatch in a weekend interview, allowed that the risks inherent in bitcoin are part of its appeal.</p><p>Yves Lamoureux, the bitcoin-bullish president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux &amp; Co., said that debt swirling around in the crypto market has amplified recent swings lower, with a number of highly indebted companies facing margin calls and this arcane business&#39;s version of Wall Street bank runs. &#34;If my read is correct, this is massive liquidation of huge leverage in the system,&#34; said Lamoureux.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s too easy as usual because bitcoin has this way of over [extending],&#34; he said.</p><p>Indeed, Crypto lender Celsius Network LLC has reportedly hired restructuring attorneys from law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer &amp; Feld LLP to advise it after the company told users that it was pausing all withdrawals, swaps and transfers among accounts, &#34;due to extreme market conditions.&#34;</p><p>Don&#39;t miss:Celsius abruptly cancels AMA session as company navigates &#39;very difficult challenges&#39;</p><p>Also see:Crypto suffering a &#39;Long Term Capital Management moment&#39;: Michael Novogratz</p><p>On top of that, a major player in decentralized finance markets, or DeFi, a corner of the crypto world where traders often seek to earn money on leveraged crypto, has reportedly faced its own challenges.</p><p>&#34;We are seeing rapid Minsky cycles in this space,&#34; Hayter said.</p><p>Economist Hyman Minsky, who died in 1996, espoused a view that a period of distortions in the financial system eventually ends very badly.</p><p>Signs of trouble in crypto markets emerged in May with the collapse of the Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin blockchain pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar, which are intended not to hold their value against the peg.</p><p>See:This 24-year-old quit his job at hedge-fund powerhouse Citadel to build anew on the Terra blockchain -- which collapsed two months later</p><p>&#34;Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,&#34; Katie Stockton, a market analyst at Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch ahead of the release of a Saturday report to clients on bitcoin&#39;s technical levels.</p><p>She said bitcoin&#39;s collapse isn&#39;t 100% confirmed but called sentiment badly deteriorated. If negative momentum continues, she said, she sees the next support at $13,900, based on her analysis.</p><p>Hayter said the current situation should be seen as par for the course for bitcoin and its ilk, &#34;with perhaps,&#34; he speculated, &#34;the next iteration allowing regulation to strengthen the natural weak points.&#34;</p><p>As is typical of crypto diehards, optimism reigns supreme: &#34;I think bitcoin is fine,&#34; said Lamoureux. &#34;It&#39;s moving from weak hands to strong hands.&#34;</p><p>While bitcoin is down 59% in 2022, the equity benchmark S&amp;P 500  is off almost 23%. The blue-chip Dow  is down 17.8%. Gold  has edged upward by 0.61% and the U.S. dollar index  more than 9%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin's Nosedive through the $20,000 Mark Is a Minsky Moment for Crypto</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin's Nosedive through the $20,000 Mark Is a Minsky Moment for Crypto\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-19 08:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>MW Bitcoin&#39;s nosedive through the $20,000 mark is a Minsky Moment for crypto: &#39;Psychologically for a lot of people, this is galling&#39;</p><p>Mark DeCambre</p><p>&#39;Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,&#39; says Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies. Bitcoin believer Yves Lamoureux of Lamoureux &amp; Co., though, thinks &#39;bitcoin is fine.&#39;</p><p>Is bitcoin  facing a breaking point? That&#39;s what some investors, acolytes and otherwise, might be contemplating, as the cryptocurrency&#39;s descent accelerates over the weekend. The world&#39;s No. 1 digital asset was last trading at $18,654, down more than 70% from its peak of around $65,000, with the broader crypto market feeling to some as if it were in free fall.</p><p>&#34;Psychologically for a lot of people this is galling,&#34; said Charles Hayter, chief executive officer of CryptoCompare, a company that provides data and analytics about the crypto market.</p><p>Hayter, speaking to MarketWatch in a weekend interview, allowed that the risks inherent in bitcoin are part of its appeal.</p><p>Yves Lamoureux, the bitcoin-bullish president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux &amp; Co., said that debt swirling around in the crypto market has amplified recent swings lower, with a number of highly indebted companies facing margin calls and this arcane business&#39;s version of Wall Street bank runs. &#34;If my read is correct, this is massive liquidation of huge leverage in the system,&#34; said Lamoureux.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s too easy as usual because bitcoin has this way of over [extending],&#34; he said.</p><p>Indeed, Crypto lender Celsius Network LLC has reportedly hired restructuring attorneys from law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer &amp; Feld LLP to advise it after the company told users that it was pausing all withdrawals, swaps and transfers among accounts, &#34;due to extreme market conditions.&#34;</p><p>Don&#39;t miss:Celsius abruptly cancels AMA session as company navigates &#39;very difficult challenges&#39;</p><p>Also see:Crypto suffering a &#39;Long Term Capital Management moment&#39;: Michael Novogratz</p><p>On top of that, a major player in decentralized finance markets, or DeFi, a corner of the crypto world where traders often seek to earn money on leveraged crypto, has reportedly faced its own challenges.</p><p>&#34;We are seeing rapid Minsky cycles in this space,&#34; Hayter said.</p><p>Economist Hyman Minsky, who died in 1996, espoused a view that a period of distortions in the financial system eventually ends very badly.</p><p>Signs of trouble in crypto markets emerged in May with the collapse of the Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin blockchain pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar, which are intended not to hold their value against the peg.</p><p>See:This 24-year-old quit his job at hedge-fund powerhouse Citadel to build anew on the Terra blockchain -- which collapsed two months later</p><p>&#34;Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,&#34; Katie Stockton, a market analyst at Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch ahead of the release of a Saturday report to clients on bitcoin&#39;s technical levels.</p><p>She said bitcoin&#39;s collapse isn&#39;t 100% confirmed but called sentiment badly deteriorated. If negative momentum continues, she said, she sees the next support at $13,900, based on her analysis.</p><p>Hayter said the current situation should be seen as par for the course for bitcoin and its ilk, &#34;with perhaps,&#34; he speculated, &#34;the next iteration allowing regulation to strengthen the natural weak points.&#34;</p><p>As is typical of crypto diehards, optimism reigns supreme: &#34;I think bitcoin is fine,&#34; said Lamoureux. &#34;It&#39;s moving from weak hands to strong hands.&#34;</p><p>While bitcoin is down 59% in 2022, the equity benchmark S&amp;P 500  is off almost 23%. The blue-chip Dow  is down 17.8%. Gold  has edged upward by 0.61% and the U.S. dollar index  more than 9%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2244860704","content_text":"MW Bitcoin's nosedive through the $20,000 mark is a Minsky Moment for crypto: 'Psychologically for a lot of people, this is galling'Mark DeCambre'Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,' says Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies. Bitcoin believer Yves Lamoureux of Lamoureux & Co., though, thinks 'bitcoin is fine.'Is bitcoin  facing a breaking point? That's what some investors, acolytes and otherwise, might be contemplating, as the cryptocurrency's descent accelerates over the weekend. The world's No. 1 digital asset was last trading at $18,654, down more than 70% from its peak of around $65,000, with the broader crypto market feeling to some as if it were in free fall.\"Psychologically for a lot of people this is galling,\" said Charles Hayter, chief executive officer of CryptoCompare, a company that provides data and analytics about the crypto market.Hayter, speaking to MarketWatch in a weekend interview, allowed that the risks inherent in bitcoin are part of its appeal.Yves Lamoureux, the bitcoin-bullish president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., said that debt swirling around in the crypto market has amplified recent swings lower, with a number of highly indebted companies facing margin calls and this arcane business's version of Wall Street bank runs. \"If my read is correct, this is massive liquidation of huge leverage in the system,\" said Lamoureux.\"It's too easy as usual because bitcoin has this way of over [extending],\" he said.Indeed, Crypto lender Celsius Network LLC has reportedly hired restructuring attorneys from law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP to advise it after the company told users that it was pausing all withdrawals, swaps and transfers among accounts, \"due to extreme market conditions.\"Don't miss:Celsius abruptly cancels AMA session as company navigates 'very difficult challenges'Also see:Crypto suffering a 'Long Term Capital Management moment': Michael NovogratzOn top of that, a major player in decentralized finance markets, or DeFi, a corner of the crypto world where traders often seek to earn money on leveraged crypto, has reportedly faced its own challenges.\"We are seeing rapid Minsky cycles in this space,\" Hayter said.Economist Hyman Minsky, who died in 1996, espoused a view that a period of distortions in the financial system eventually ends very badly.Signs of trouble in crypto markets emerged in May with the collapse of the Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin blockchain pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar, which are intended not to hold their value against the peg.See:This 24-year-old quit his job at hedge-fund powerhouse Citadel to build anew on the Terra blockchain -- which collapsed two months later\"Bitcoin has already broken down [and is] now seeing significant downside follow-through,\" Katie Stockton, a market analyst at Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch ahead of the release of a Saturday report to clients on bitcoin's technical levels.She said bitcoin's collapse isn't 100% confirmed but called sentiment badly deteriorated. If negative momentum continues, she said, she sees the next support at $13,900, based on her analysis.Hayter said the current situation should be seen as par for the course for bitcoin and its ilk, \"with perhaps,\" he speculated, \"the next iteration allowing regulation to strengthen the natural weak points.\"As is typical of crypto diehards, optimism reigns supreme: \"I think bitcoin is fine,\" said Lamoureux. \"It's moving from weak hands to strong hands.\"While bitcoin is down 59% in 2022, the equity benchmark S&P 500  is off almost 23%. The blue-chip Dow  is down 17.8%. Gold  has edged upward by 0.61% and the U.S. dollar index  more than 9%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585255751373364","authorId":"3585255751373364","name":"MO75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d033068949889afd8c31c73da66c8e75","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3585255751373364","authorIdStr":"3585255751373364"},"content":"Sad.. all just vanish in thin air","text":"Sad.. all just vanish in thin air","html":"Sad.. all just vanish in thin air"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934093756,"gmtCreate":1663154742675,"gmtModify":1676537215513,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Business running as usual, stock price move due to speculative trading","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Business running as usual, stock price move due to speculative trading","text":"$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$Business running as usual, stock price move due to speculative trading","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a01b055622c0f727410aaf834da8601b","width":"1125","height":"2513"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934093756","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216285984780528,"gmtCreate":1693834911999,"gmtModify":1693834916552,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?&nbsp;","listText":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?&nbsp;","text":"Hi guys. Any of you uses options trading?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216285984780528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995443857,"gmtCreate":1661506354681,"gmtModify":1676536532051,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>I mean can buy in moderation. But this split will last a long way before if any future split to be. But it is also a different kind of split compare to previous split. Now more novice investors already comes in into EV revolution where Tesla will face real competition. China is super in copying technology. Catching up is fast, and tesla have to have ‘new ideas’ that Chinese don’t have. Near term neutral, future canbe bearish&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>I mean can buy in moderation. But this split will last a long way before if any future split to be. But it is also a different kind of split compare to previous split. Now more novice investors already comes in into EV revolution where Tesla will face real competition. China is super in copying technology. Catching up is fast, and tesla have to have ‘new ideas’ that Chinese don’t have. Near term neutral, future canbe bearish&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$I mean can buy in moderation. But this split will last a long way before if any future split to be. But it is also a different kind of split compare to previous split. Now more novice investors already comes in into EV revolution where Tesla will face real competition. China is super in copying technology. Catching up is fast, and tesla have to have ‘new ideas’ that Chinese don’t have. Near term neutral, future canbe bearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995443857","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905186670,"gmtCreate":1659838694893,"gmtModify":1703766935964,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stock split increase liquidity, so those retail investors that can afford 200-300 range stocks will comein the trading scene. More mid-affluent investors will be in the tesla market. That will stabilise the price. Upside wise I think it will take time to proof themselves as more prudent trading will take more stand than speculative ones. I will expect IV of option to come down after split and upside or downside being more stabilise.&nbsp;","listText":"Stock split increase liquidity, so those retail investors that can afford 200-300 range stocks will comein the trading scene. More mid-affluent investors will be in the tesla market. That will stabilise the price. Upside wise I think it will take time to proof themselves as more prudent trading will take more stand than speculative ones. I will expect IV of option to come down after split and upside or downside being more stabilise.&nbsp;","text":"Stock split increase liquidity, so those retail investors that can afford 200-300 range stocks will comein the trading scene. More mid-affluent investors will be in the tesla market. That will stabilise the price. Upside wise I think it will take time to proof themselves as more prudent trading will take more stand than speculative ones. I will expect IV of option to come down after split and upside or downside being more stabilise.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905186670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363349729579016,"gmtCreate":1729751043634,"gmtModify":1729751850563,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","listText":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","text":"SoFi - The upcoming and rising star. I have been invested in this Fintech bank for the past 2 years. Recently, it has its breakout and survive recent market turmoil. Having 12 out of 16 straight days in the green. Would recommend this stock for the mid to long term investment, given interest rate environment is improving and 2025 and 2026 has much install for the company. Cheers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363349729579016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4089333091543410","authorId":"4089333091543410","name":"maleman","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb1fc813a418a3eeb5469374d4b7bca1","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089333091543410","authorIdStr":"4089333091543410"},"content":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out","text":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out","html":"I've been holding SOFI for quite a while to. Great to see it trying to break out"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198145052332176,"gmtCreate":1689409433992,"gmtModify":1689409442672,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"title":"Share your 2x to 10x pick stocks. ","htmlText":"In view of bullish trend on a mid to long term. Share your picks that you have the greatest conviction that can 2x to 10x coming future.&nbsp; I will start my pick on Lending Club. Reason for resilience in trouble time and ability to scale business steadily even in high interest environment.&nbsp; Do share your opinion your best shot.🙂","listText":"In view of bullish trend on a mid to long term. Share your picks that you have the greatest conviction that can 2x to 10x coming future.&nbsp; I will start my pick on Lending Club. Reason for resilience in trouble time and ability to scale business steadily even in high interest environment.&nbsp; Do share your opinion your best shot.🙂","text":"In view of bullish trend on a mid to long term. Share your picks that you have the greatest conviction that can 2x to 10x coming future. I will start my pick on Lending Club. Reason for resilience in trouble time and ability to scale business steadily even in high interest environment. Do share your opinion your best shot.🙂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198145052332176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905231499,"gmtCreate":1659893341319,"gmtModify":1703767391120,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree. Many people think advertising budget cut isa linear cut across all ad base industries (That is $x dollars has to be share among 5 or more companies doing ad business). But ad product gets promoted not a linear way. I think product company will choose the correct platform to do their ad, and also if budget allows, they can get more ad companies do their ad all in one go. Not necessarily a shared pie linear concept.","listText":"Agree. Many people think advertising budget cut isa linear cut across all ad base industries (That is $x dollars has to be share among 5 or more companies doing ad business). But ad product gets promoted not a linear way. I think product company will choose the correct platform to do their ad, and also if budget allows, they can get more ad companies do their ad all in one go. Not necessarily a shared pie linear concept.","text":"Agree. Many people think advertising budget cut isa linear cut across all ad base industries (That is $x dollars has to be share among 5 or more companies doing ad business). But ad product gets promoted not a linear way. I think product company will choose the correct platform to do their ad, and also if budget allows, they can get more ad companies do their ad all in one go. Not necessarily a shared pie linear concept.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905231499","repostId":"2257938127","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2257938127","pubTimestamp":1659841251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2257938127?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-07 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roku Stock Crash: Should Investors Buy, Sell, or Hold?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2257938127","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Macro headwinds are putting pressure on Roku's share price, but the fundamentals of the business seem relatively unchanged.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The past year has been a <i>really</i> rough time to be an investor in <b>Roku</b>, a leading streaming platform. Shares had already taken a massive beating over the past 12 months. And as if that wasn&#39;t enough, the stock price plummeted another 25% after Roku&#39;s second-quarter results thoroughly disappointed the market. While the shares have bounced back a bit in the past few days, they are still trading near their lowest price in two years.</p><p>It is quite understandable for any investor to contemplate selling their Roku shares at this time. There is no one-size-fits-all investing strategy. However, here&#39;s the key question investors should ask before hitting that sell button: Are Roku&#39;s poor second-quarter results driven by the company&#39;s declining business fundamentals and an extinguishing future opportunity, or is the reality more nuanced? Let&#39;s review.</p><h2>Likely one of its worst quarters in the recent memory</h2><p>Roku&#39;s total revenue for the second quarter of 2022 grew only 18%, reaching $764 million. Growth in its platform revenue -- which has been rising steadily and now makes up 88% of the total revenue -- was also step down at 26%. Total and platform revenue saw notable deceleration from the first quarter of 2022, when they grew 28% and 39%, respectively.</p><p>The bottom-line numbers weren&#39;t encouraging either. The company took a loss from operations of $110 million, compared to a relatively moderate loss of $23 million in the first quarter of 2022 and a gain of $69 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>The biggest blow came with Roku&#39;s guidance for the third quarter of 2022: The company expects its year-over-year revenue to grow by a meager 3%, reaching $700 million. That number fell short of consensus analyst estimates by a whopping $200 million. And the company withdrew its full-year guidance -- citing a high degree of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment -- not leaving much room for optimism for a quick turnaround.</p><h2>Macroeconomic context offers greater clarity</h2><p>While Roku&#39;s headline numbers present a fairly clear picture of its recent quarter, they don&#39;t really paint a complete picture of where the business stands today. Despite the continuing supply chain challenges -- which have impacted TV sales for over a year -- Roku added 1.2 million new subscribers in the quarter, taking the total to 63.1 million.</p><p>Viewers also continue to spend a good chunk of their time -- on average, 3.7 hours per active account per day -- streaming on their Roku devices. A total of 20.7 billion hours of content was streamed on Roku&#39;s platform in the second quarter, fairly in line with the first quarter of 2022 and an increase of 19% over a year ago. Roku&#39;s average revenue per user (ARPU) also surged a healthy 21% to $44.10.</p><p>Clearly, engagement is not an issue for Roku. Product or service quality don&#39;t seem to be the culprits either -- Roku continued to be ranked the No. 1 selling smart TV operating system in the US, and it grabbed the No. 2 spot in Mexico.</p><p>The big issue impacting Roku is the slowdown in the economy. Raging inflation and higher interest rates are squeezing consumers and putting pressure on businesses. As times get tough, advertising is one of the easy-to-cut material expenses for businesses. Many of Roku&#39;s advertisers paused their ad spending in the middle of the second quarter, negatively impacting its revenue.</p><p>And Roku isn&#39;t alone in facing this challenge. Even <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a></b>, an established giant generating multiple times Roku&#39;s revenue in advertising, and players like <b>Snap</b> and <b>Twitter</b> are experiencing the same ad cutbacks and revenue headwinds.</p><h2>What should investors do?</h2><p>Despite the impact of the slowing economy, the core thesis behind investing in Roku still seems to be intact. First, unlike many of its competitors that repurposed their cellphone or computer operating systems to stream content on TV, Roku purpose-built a software platform for TVs from the ground up, and the company believes its platform to be the best in the industry.</p><p>Second, the secular trends supporting Roku&#39;s long-term opportunity are still in place: Consumers are steadily shifting away from traditional pay TV to streaming, with legacy pay-TV households expected to decline from 52.4% in 2022 to 42.4% in 2026. Also, the shift of advertising budgets from legacy pay TV to streaming is lagging the shift in viewers. In 2022, consumers spent 50% of their TV time on streaming, but marketers spent only 22% of their ad budgets on streaming.</p><p>Finally, Anthony Wood, Roku&#39;s founder who has led the company for almost two decades, is still at the helm. Under Wood&#39;s leadership, Roku has innovated and executed very well to attain a leading position in the industry.</p><p>That is not to say there are no risks to Roku&#39;s business: Competition is intense, and Roku has to prove it can replicate its North American success in other parts of the world. It is also unclear when the economy will rebound and advertising spend will rise. Roku is not immune to macro headwinds. At the same time, it is fundamentally <i>not</i> a different business today from what it was about 12 months ago when shares were trading at an all-time-high price of over $475.</p><p>For long-term investors with diversified portfolios, the best strategy may be to hold onto their Roku shares and ride this bumpy ride as the company still has a long runway ahead. In fact, with pessimism at its peak -- and considering the shares are trading at their five-year low price-to-sales ratio of around 3.5 -- it may not be a bad idea to add a few shares of Roku.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roku Stock Crash: Should Investors Buy, Sell, or Hold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoku Stock Crash: Should Investors Buy, Sell, or Hold?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-07 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/06/roku-stock-crash-should-investors-buy-sell-or-hold/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past year has been a really rough time to be an investor in Roku, a leading streaming platform. Shares had already taken a massive beating over the past 12 months. And as if that wasn't enough, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/06/roku-stock-crash-should-investors-buy-sell-or-hold/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/06/roku-stock-crash-should-investors-buy-sell-or-hold/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2257938127","content_text":"The past year has been a really rough time to be an investor in Roku, a leading streaming platform. Shares had already taken a massive beating over the past 12 months. And as if that wasn't enough, the stock price plummeted another 25% after Roku's second-quarter results thoroughly disappointed the market. While the shares have bounced back a bit in the past few days, they are still trading near their lowest price in two years.It is quite understandable for any investor to contemplate selling their Roku shares at this time. There is no one-size-fits-all investing strategy. However, here's the key question investors should ask before hitting that sell button: Are Roku's poor second-quarter results driven by the company's declining business fundamentals and an extinguishing future opportunity, or is the reality more nuanced? Let's review.Likely one of its worst quarters in the recent memoryRoku's total revenue for the second quarter of 2022 grew only 18%, reaching $764 million. Growth in its platform revenue -- which has been rising steadily and now makes up 88% of the total revenue -- was also step down at 26%. Total and platform revenue saw notable deceleration from the first quarter of 2022, when they grew 28% and 39%, respectively.The bottom-line numbers weren't encouraging either. The company took a loss from operations of $110 million, compared to a relatively moderate loss of $23 million in the first quarter of 2022 and a gain of $69 million in the year-ago quarter.The biggest blow came with Roku's guidance for the third quarter of 2022: The company expects its year-over-year revenue to grow by a meager 3%, reaching $700 million. That number fell short of consensus analyst estimates by a whopping $200 million. And the company withdrew its full-year guidance -- citing a high degree of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment -- not leaving much room for optimism for a quick turnaround.Macroeconomic context offers greater clarityWhile Roku's headline numbers present a fairly clear picture of its recent quarter, they don't really paint a complete picture of where the business stands today. Despite the continuing supply chain challenges -- which have impacted TV sales for over a year -- Roku added 1.2 million new subscribers in the quarter, taking the total to 63.1 million.Viewers also continue to spend a good chunk of their time -- on average, 3.7 hours per active account per day -- streaming on their Roku devices. A total of 20.7 billion hours of content was streamed on Roku's platform in the second quarter, fairly in line with the first quarter of 2022 and an increase of 19% over a year ago. Roku's average revenue per user (ARPU) also surged a healthy 21% to $44.10.Clearly, engagement is not an issue for Roku. Product or service quality don't seem to be the culprits either -- Roku continued to be ranked the No. 1 selling smart TV operating system in the US, and it grabbed the No. 2 spot in Mexico.The big issue impacting Roku is the slowdown in the economy. Raging inflation and higher interest rates are squeezing consumers and putting pressure on businesses. As times get tough, advertising is one of the easy-to-cut material expenses for businesses. Many of Roku's advertisers paused their ad spending in the middle of the second quarter, negatively impacting its revenue.And Roku isn't alone in facing this challenge. Even Meta Platforms, an established giant generating multiple times Roku's revenue in advertising, and players like Snap and Twitter are experiencing the same ad cutbacks and revenue headwinds.What should investors do?Despite the impact of the slowing economy, the core thesis behind investing in Roku still seems to be intact. First, unlike many of its competitors that repurposed their cellphone or computer operating systems to stream content on TV, Roku purpose-built a software platform for TVs from the ground up, and the company believes its platform to be the best in the industry.Second, the secular trends supporting Roku's long-term opportunity are still in place: Consumers are steadily shifting away from traditional pay TV to streaming, with legacy pay-TV households expected to decline from 52.4% in 2022 to 42.4% in 2026. Also, the shift of advertising budgets from legacy pay TV to streaming is lagging the shift in viewers. In 2022, consumers spent 50% of their TV time on streaming, but marketers spent only 22% of their ad budgets on streaming.Finally, Anthony Wood, Roku's founder who has led the company for almost two decades, is still at the helm. Under Wood's leadership, Roku has innovated and executed very well to attain a leading position in the industry.That is not to say there are no risks to Roku's business: Competition is intense, and Roku has to prove it can replicate its North American success in other parts of the world. It is also unclear when the economy will rebound and advertising spend will rise. Roku is not immune to macro headwinds. At the same time, it is fundamentally not a different business today from what it was about 12 months ago when shares were trading at an all-time-high price of over $475.For long-term investors with diversified portfolios, the best strategy may be to hold onto their Roku shares and ride this bumpy ride as the company still has a long runway ahead. In fact, with pessimism at its peak -- and considering the shares are trading at their five-year low price-to-sales ratio of around 3.5 -- it may not be a bad idea to add a few shares of Roku.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054114335,"gmtCreate":1655352437828,"gmtModify":1676535621211,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin will still be around. But take all tycoons words with pinch of salt, knowing their words influencemarket movement as well.&nbsp;Bitcoin is like&nbsp;Diamond, darling to the rich at one point but a dump when recession comes. Face it, wecan't always&nbsp;buy bread and butter with Bitcoin directlyStocks&nbsp;is like Gold and currency,&nbsp;still&nbsp;more tradable.&nbsp;","listText":"Bitcoin will still be around. But take all tycoons words with pinch of salt, knowing their words influencemarket movement as well.&nbsp;Bitcoin is like&nbsp;Diamond, darling to the rich at one point but a dump when recession comes. Face it, wecan't always&nbsp;buy bread and butter with Bitcoin directlyStocks&nbsp;is like Gold and currency,&nbsp;still&nbsp;more tradable.&nbsp;","text":"Bitcoin will still be around. But take all tycoons words with pinch of salt, knowing their words influencemarket movement as well. Bitcoin is like Diamond, darling to the rich at one point but a dump when recession comes. Face it, wecan't always buy bread and butter with Bitcoin directlyStocks is like Gold and currency, still more tradable.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054114335","repostId":"2243141689","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243141689","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1655308800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243141689?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 00:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243141689","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity\n\n\n  By West","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Weston Blasi \n</p>\n<p>\n  Bitcoin was trading around $21,000 on Wednesday, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November \n</p>\n<p>\n  That was MicroStrategy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$(MSTR)$</a> CEO and bitcoin  bull Michael Saylor talking about the recent fall in bitcoin prices during a Wednesday morning interview on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor attempted to calm fears of slumping prices by saying that any four-year time horizon in bitcoin's history has yielded positive returns for investors. Bitcoin's network went live in 2009. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor was also asked if the recent dip in crypto prices, and bitcoin in particular, presented a buying opportunity for investors. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Absolutely,\" he responded. \n</p>\n<p>\n  See also: Shorting crypto stocks has led to 'substantial' paper gains, but it's getting harder to join in on the trend \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor has been a promoter of bitcoin for years, and just a few hours before his interview with CNBC, he tweeted \"1 BTC = 1BTC,\" a likely reference to not paying too much attention to short-term price movements. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A potential margin call could be looming for Saylor and MicroStrategy, which could lead the company to selling some of its more than 130,000 bitcoin, according to a report from MarketWatch's Steve Goldstein. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The quotes come during a tumultuous time for bitcoin investors. Bitcoin was trading just above $21,000 as of Wednesday morning, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November 2021, according to CoinDesk data. \n</p>\n<p>\n  According to analysts at Mizuho, roughly half of bitcoin holders using Coinbase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$(COIN)$</a> as their primary exchange are facing losses. \n</p>\n<p>\n  See also: Why is crypto crashing? Mark Cuban says 'crypto is going through the lull that the internet went through' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Crypto is not the only market experiencing major selloffs. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average  and the S&amp;P 500 Index  entered bear market territory. U.S. stocks saw a small uptick on Wednesday as the Fed weighs the biggest interest rate increase since 1994. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Weston Blasi \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 15, 2022 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-16 00:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity\n</p>\n<p>\n  By Weston Blasi \n</p>\n<p>\n  Bitcoin was trading around $21,000 on Wednesday, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November \n</p>\n<p>\n  That was MicroStrategy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$(MSTR)$</a> CEO and bitcoin  bull Michael Saylor talking about the recent fall in bitcoin prices during a Wednesday morning interview on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor attempted to calm fears of slumping prices by saying that any four-year time horizon in bitcoin's history has yielded positive returns for investors. Bitcoin's network went live in 2009. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor was also asked if the recent dip in crypto prices, and bitcoin in particular, presented a buying opportunity for investors. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Absolutely,\" he responded. \n</p>\n<p>\n  See also: Shorting crypto stocks has led to 'substantial' paper gains, but it's getting harder to join in on the trend \n</p>\n<p>\n  Saylor has been a promoter of bitcoin for years, and just a few hours before his interview with CNBC, he tweeted \"1 BTC = 1BTC,\" a likely reference to not paying too much attention to short-term price movements. \n</p>\n<p>\n  A potential margin call could be looming for Saylor and MicroStrategy, which could lead the company to selling some of its more than 130,000 bitcoin, according to a report from MarketWatch's Steve Goldstein. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The quotes come during a tumultuous time for bitcoin investors. Bitcoin was trading just above $21,000 as of Wednesday morning, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November 2021, according to CoinDesk data. \n</p>\n<p>\n  According to analysts at Mizuho, roughly half of bitcoin holders using Coinbase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$(COIN)$</a> as their primary exchange are facing losses. \n</p>\n<p>\n  See also: Why is crypto crashing? Mark Cuban says 'crypto is going through the lull that the internet went through' \n</p>\n<p>\n  Crypto is not the only market experiencing major selloffs. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average  and the S&amp;P 500 Index  entered bear market territory. U.S. stocks saw a small uptick on Wednesday as the Fed weighs the biggest interest rate increase since 1994. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Weston Blasi \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 15, 2022 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4539":"次新股","BK4023":"应用软件","MSTR":"MicroStrategy"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243141689","content_text":"MW Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor says recent downturn is 'absolutely' a buying opportunity\n\n\n  By Weston Blasi \n\n\n  Bitcoin was trading around $21,000 on Wednesday, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November \n\n\n  That was MicroStrategy $(MSTR)$ CEO and bitcoin  bull Michael Saylor talking about the recent fall in bitcoin prices during a Wednesday morning interview on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. \n\n\n  Saylor attempted to calm fears of slumping prices by saying that any four-year time horizon in bitcoin's history has yielded positive returns for investors. Bitcoin's network went live in 2009. \n\n\n  Saylor was also asked if the recent dip in crypto prices, and bitcoin in particular, presented a buying opportunity for investors. \n\n\n  \"Absolutely,\" he responded. \n\n\n  See also: Shorting crypto stocks has led to 'substantial' paper gains, but it's getting harder to join in on the trend \n\n\n  Saylor has been a promoter of bitcoin for years, and just a few hours before his interview with CNBC, he tweeted \"1 BTC = 1BTC,\" a likely reference to not paying too much attention to short-term price movements. \n\n\n  A potential margin call could be looming for Saylor and MicroStrategy, which could lead the company to selling some of its more than 130,000 bitcoin, according to a report from MarketWatch's Steve Goldstein. \n\n\n  The quotes come during a tumultuous time for bitcoin investors. Bitcoin was trading just above $21,000 as of Wednesday morning, nearly 70% lower from its all-time high in November 2021, according to CoinDesk data. \n\n\n  According to analysts at Mizuho, roughly half of bitcoin holders using Coinbase$(COIN)$ as their primary exchange are facing losses. \n\n\n  See also: Why is crypto crashing? Mark Cuban says 'crypto is going through the lull that the internet went through' \n\n\n  Crypto is not the only market experiencing major selloffs. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average  and the S&P 500 Index  entered bear market territory. U.S. stocks saw a small uptick on Wednesday as the Fed weighs the biggest interest rate increase since 1994. \n\n\n  -Weston Blasi \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  June 15, 2022 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197492866842824,"gmtCreate":1689250446877,"gmtModify":1689250454170,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"title":"Are analysts ratings bias and manipulative? Should there be some kind of penalty impose if their ratings deviate way too far from actual market price? Afterall they are suppose to be 'professional'?","htmlText":"Lately, there are several analysts downgrading Sofi stocks, as today another added to the downgrade. Certainly the downgrade brings down the price, but the earlier downgrades sizzle away while market remain bullish. One ridiculous analyst even put a $3 price tag to a highly promising growth stock. The price tag was not even been reach at 2021 bear at the lowest price.&nbsp; On another case, JPM place a buy ratingof $50 for a close-to-bankrupt Carvana. These analysts aren't they not appeared to be manipulative?&nbsp; I felt there should be some kind of regulators that regulate ridiculous rating and penalise these unruly analysts as they cause unnecessary volatility movement.&nbsp;","listText":"Lately, there are several analysts downgrading Sofi stocks, as today another added to the downgrade. Certainly the downgrade brings down the price, but the earlier downgrades sizzle away while market remain bullish. One ridiculous analyst even put a $3 price tag to a highly promising growth stock. The price tag was not even been reach at 2021 bear at the lowest price.&nbsp; On another case, JPM place a buy ratingof $50 for a close-to-bankrupt Carvana. These analysts aren't they not appeared to be manipulative?&nbsp; I felt there should be some kind of regulators that regulate ridiculous rating and penalise these unruly analysts as they cause unnecessary volatility movement.&nbsp;","text":"Lately, there are several analysts downgrading Sofi stocks, as today another added to the downgrade. Certainly the downgrade brings down the price, but the earlier downgrades sizzle away while market remain bullish. One ridiculous analyst even put a $3 price tag to a highly promising growth stock. The price tag was not even been reach at 2021 bear at the lowest price. On another case, JPM place a buy ratingof $50 for a close-to-bankrupt Carvana. These analysts aren't they not appeared to be manipulative? I felt there should be some kind of regulators that regulate ridiculous rating and penalise these unruly analysts as they cause unnecessary volatility movement.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197492866842824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025468051,"gmtCreate":1653720374773,"gmtModify":1676535333328,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hold for long term. Will revisit when it reach strike price of at least $1k or after stock split.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hold for long term. Will revisit when it reach strike price of at least $1k or after stock split.&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Hold for long term. Will revisit when it reach strike price of at least $1k or after stock split.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c20b8ef51578787574b86ae4e0233863","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025468051","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962397265,"gmtCreate":1669719506458,"gmtModify":1676538228298,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>one more round of major correction. Macro sentiment is not going to spare any stocks from plunge. Nothing is cheap, it can be cheaper. Look at the valuation is crucial. Fundamental is important. Musk as CEO is also a major factor. If he leaves tesla, it will plunge even it is profitable company. If one think it is cheap, DCA might be a more defensive approach to invest into it.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>one more round of major correction. Macro sentiment is not going to spare any stocks from plunge. Nothing is cheap, it can be cheaper. Look at the valuation is crucial. Fundamental is important. Musk as CEO is also a major factor. If he leaves tesla, it will plunge even it is profitable company. If one think it is cheap, DCA might be a more defensive approach to invest into it.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ one more round of major correction. Macro sentiment is not going to spare any stocks from plunge. Nothing is cheap, it can be cheaper. Look at the valuation is crucial. Fundamental is important. Musk as CEO is also a major factor. If he leaves tesla, it will plunge even it is profitable company. If one think it is cheap, DCA might be a more defensive approach to invest into it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962397265","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252137578930368,"gmtCreate":1702590739698,"gmtModify":1702590742838,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$HOOD 20231229 8.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bca08b8717954aa349736cee55521c8","width":"730","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252137578930368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366125265301568,"gmtCreate":1730426160089,"gmtModify":1730447096529,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","listText":"Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","text":"Options idea for 2 great stocks:- Enphase (ENPH) and SoFi (SOFI). Lately Enphase, a leading solar company in US, has its stock price fell nearer to its 9 months low. Offers a good entry price for a long term play. I have acquire 500 shares through options at 85.0 and since the earning fall, it has hover at around 81-83+ range. For premium and shares acquisition play, one can open puts at 79 or 80.0 strike with 3+ dollars premium in 2 weeks. While I also open covered calls at 97.0 strike at around 1 dollar premium. Enphase can trend back its 100.0 range when market recover, even last night SP500 downtrend, it remains stable. SoFi has defy the bearish trend holding well at its current price, trend projected to be bullish and expected to beat earnings again in Q4, selling puts at 10.0 or even","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366125265301568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049409493,"gmtCreate":1655822087412,"gmtModify":1676535711861,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I don't really think it matters very much. Except more retail investors will trade in the stocks, meaning both upside and downside can be more volatile perhaps. I would take advantage that a hundred shares is enough to start an option chain in covered callselling","listText":"I don't really think it matters very much. Except more retail investors will trade in the stocks, meaning both upside and downside can be more volatile perhaps. I would take advantage that a hundred shares is enough to start an option chain in covered callselling","text":"I don't really think it matters very much. Except more retail investors will trade in the stocks, meaning both upside and downside can be more volatile perhaps. I would take advantage that a hundred shares is enough to start an option chain in covered callselling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049409493","repostId":"2245827432","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2245827432","pubTimestamp":1655825437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245827432?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245827432","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here's what Tesla's potential upcoming split means for investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Tesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.</li><li>The stock&#39;s valuation continues to get more attractive.</li><li>A recession could hurt Tesla&#39;s young competition.</li></ul><p>Electric-vehicle company <b>Tesla</b> recently filed a document revealing plans for a 3-for-1 stock split.</p><p>The company last split its stock in August 2020, and shares have risen 30% since then. So if you&#39;re planning to invest in Tesla, should you buy the stock now or wait until the split takes place, which needs approval from shareholders at the company&#39;s annual shareholder meeting on August 4?</p><p>The answer may surprise you; roll up your sleeves and dive in.</p><p><b>What a stock split means for investors</b></p><p>First, it is essential to know what a stock split is and what it means for investors. A stock split is when a company increases its existing total share count by a specific ratio to lower its share price. The important thing to note is the company&#39;s total market capitalization remains unchanged strictly based on the stock split.</p><p>For example, Tesla&#39;s proposed 3-for-1 split means the automaker is tripling the number of outstanding shares on the market. After the split, investors will own three shares for every share they held before the split.</p><p>If all else remains equal, the share price will fall in proportion, so if Tesla trades at $999 per share before the split, investors will have three shares at $333 each after the split.</p><p>The crucial takeaway is that a stock split doesn&#39;t make the company any more valuable; nothing fundamentally changes about the stock. The one share trading at $999 is worth the same as three shares trading at $333.</p><p>Stock splits make shares more affordable, especially for retail investors. Companies sometimes split their stock to appeal to the retail crowd; adding more shares also boosts trading volume, meaning the stock is easier to buy and sell on a brokerage.</p><p>Asking whether to buy a stock before or after a stock split is a trick question: If a split doesn&#39;t fundamentally change a stock, it shouldn&#39;t matter whether you buy now or wait. However, you can base your buying or selling of Tesla on other factors.</p><p><b>The stock is near its lowest valuation</b></p><p>Tesla began turning a bottom-line profit in 2020, so investors can value the stock with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Its P/E ratio started high when it first turned profitable, earnings per share (EPS) are now quickly growing, and the stock&#39;s valuation is coming down. The current P/E of 89 is its lowest on record.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac0798b0c3ec9cfba2d43139124b6d4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>Tesla still commands a considerable premium over legacy automotive companies like <b>Ford</b> and <b>General Motors</b>, which trade at a P/E of 4 and 5, respectively. However, Tesla&#39;s bottom line is swelling; analysts expect 30% annual EPS growth over the next three to five years, compared to just 3% for Ford and 10% for General Motors.</p><p>It seems that Tesla deserves the premium valuation it has, though the degree of that premium is up for debate. Nevertheless, if the company can grow like analysts believe it can, long-term investors could see the stock grow into its valuation over time.</p><p><b>A tough economy could hurt competitors</b></p><p>Tesla&#39;s profitability also comes at a crucial time; inflation is raging, supply chains are hurting manufacturers worldwide, and the economy could enter a recession. Mass-producing cars isn&#39;t easy, and Elon Musk has openly talked about how increasing Model 3 production nearly bankrupted his company.</p><p>A problematic economic backdrop could spell trouble for upstart competitors like <b>Lucid Group</b> and <b>Rivian Automotive</b>, which still burn significant amounts of cash. Meanwhile, Tesla is generating billions in free cash flow and sitting on $18 billion in cash on the balance sheet against just $3 billion in debt.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3025a3cedebec024cae445bbfcb48f55\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>Rivian has $16 billion in cash from IPO proceeds, while Lucid has $5 billion. This cash will buy them time, but both are trying to build more vehicles faster, which could worsen their cash burn.</p><p>A recession wouldn&#39;t help anyone, but harsh operating conditions can become a game of survival, and it&#39;s not clear that any automotive company is as financially sound right now as Tesla is.</p><p><b>Wrapping up</b></p><p>A stock split can grab headlines, but investors who buy Tesla stock should do so because of its growth and profitability. The stock could go lower over the short term, and nobody knows when a bottom might occur.</p><p>Approaching your investments with a long time horizon will give a company&#39;s fundamentals the best chance to dictate your investment returns. Good companies tend to perform well over time. You can also use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to slowly buy shares, blending your cost into an average that isn&#39;t too high or too low.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2245827432","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a document revealing plans for a 3-for-1 stock split.The company last split its stock in August 2020, and shares have risen 30% since then. So if you're planning to invest in Tesla, should you buy the stock now or wait until the split takes place, which needs approval from shareholders at the company's annual shareholder meeting on August 4?The answer may surprise you; roll up your sleeves and dive in.What a stock split means for investorsFirst, it is essential to know what a stock split is and what it means for investors. A stock split is when a company increases its existing total share count by a specific ratio to lower its share price. The important thing to note is the company's total market capitalization remains unchanged strictly based on the stock split.For example, Tesla's proposed 3-for-1 split means the automaker is tripling the number of outstanding shares on the market. After the split, investors will own three shares for every share they held before the split.If all else remains equal, the share price will fall in proportion, so if Tesla trades at $999 per share before the split, investors will have three shares at $333 each after the split.The crucial takeaway is that a stock split doesn't make the company any more valuable; nothing fundamentally changes about the stock. The one share trading at $999 is worth the same as three shares trading at $333.Stock splits make shares more affordable, especially for retail investors. Companies sometimes split their stock to appeal to the retail crowd; adding more shares also boosts trading volume, meaning the stock is easier to buy and sell on a brokerage.Asking whether to buy a stock before or after a stock split is a trick question: If a split doesn't fundamentally change a stock, it shouldn't matter whether you buy now or wait. However, you can base your buying or selling of Tesla on other factors.The stock is near its lowest valuationTesla began turning a bottom-line profit in 2020, so investors can value the stock with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Its P/E ratio started high when it first turned profitable, earnings per share (EPS) are now quickly growing, and the stock's valuation is coming down. The current P/E of 89 is its lowest on record.Data by YCharts.Tesla still commands a considerable premium over legacy automotive companies like Ford and General Motors, which trade at a P/E of 4 and 5, respectively. However, Tesla's bottom line is swelling; analysts expect 30% annual EPS growth over the next three to five years, compared to just 3% for Ford and 10% for General Motors.It seems that Tesla deserves the premium valuation it has, though the degree of that premium is up for debate. Nevertheless, if the company can grow like analysts believe it can, long-term investors could see the stock grow into its valuation over time.A tough economy could hurt competitorsTesla's profitability also comes at a crucial time; inflation is raging, supply chains are hurting manufacturers worldwide, and the economy could enter a recession. Mass-producing cars isn't easy, and Elon Musk has openly talked about how increasing Model 3 production nearly bankrupted his company.A problematic economic backdrop could spell trouble for upstart competitors like Lucid Group and Rivian Automotive, which still burn significant amounts of cash. Meanwhile, Tesla is generating billions in free cash flow and sitting on $18 billion in cash on the balance sheet against just $3 billion in debt.Data by YCharts.Rivian has $16 billion in cash from IPO proceeds, while Lucid has $5 billion. This cash will buy them time, but both are trying to build more vehicles faster, which could worsen their cash burn.A recession wouldn't help anyone, but harsh operating conditions can become a game of survival, and it's not clear that any automotive company is as financially sound right now as Tesla is.Wrapping upA stock split can grab headlines, but investors who buy Tesla stock should do so because of its growth and profitability. The stock could go lower over the short term, and nobody knows when a bottom might occur.Approaching your investments with a long time horizon will give a company's fundamentals the best chance to dictate your investment returns. Good companies tend to perform well over time. You can also use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to slowly buy shares, blending your cost into an average that isn't too high or too low.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914651903,"gmtCreate":1665278169802,"gmtModify":1676537580399,"author":{"id":"4101955883486630","authorId":"4101955883486630","name":"Thalos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ba87139db7cd8dd783879dbd6ed4c5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101955883486630","authorIdStr":"4101955883486630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More pain till year end","listText":"More pain till year end","text":"More pain till year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914651903","repostId":"2273343388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273343388","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1665277326,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273343388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-09 09:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273343388","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Some economists fear the Federal Reserve -- humbled after waiting too long to withdraw its support o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some economists fear the Federal Reserve -- humbled after waiting too long to withdraw its support of a booming economy last year -- is risking another blunder by potentially raising interest rates too much to combat high inflation.</p><p>The Fed has lifted rates by 0.75 percentage point at each of its past three meetings, bringing its benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 3% and 3.25% last month -- the fastest pace of increases since the 1980s. Officials have indicated they could make a fourth increase of 0.75 point at their Nov. 1-2 meeting and raise the rate above 4.5% early next year.</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank isn&#39;t trying to cause a recession, but it can&#39;t fail in its effort to bring down inflation. &#34;I wish there was a painless way to do that. There isn&#39;t,&#34; he said last month.</p><p>Still, several analysts worry the Fed is on track to raise rates higher than required, potentially triggering a deeper-than-necessary downturn.</p><p>&#34;They&#39;ve done a tremendous amount of tightening,&#34; said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University economist who advised President George W. Bush. &#34;Recessions are painful for a lot of people. I think Powell&#39;s right that some pain is probably inevitable...but you don&#39;t want to cause more than is necessary.&#34;</p><p>Until June, officials hadn&#39;t lifted rates by 0.75 point, or 75 basis points, since 1994. Instead, they usually preferred making smaller quarter-point increases that gave them more time to see their economic effects.</p><p>&#34;I would slowly ease the foot off the brake,&#34; Mr. Mankiw said. &#34;That means probably for a given meeting, if they&#39;re debating 50 or 75, go with 50 instead of 75.&#34;</p><p>Former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn agrees it is near time for Fed officials to slow their rate increases. &#34;They need to downshift soon. They need to somehow downshift without backing off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Fed officials left rates near zero last year as they focused on spurring a strong labor market recovery. The war in Ukraine this spring sent commodity prices higher and fueled concerns that inflation might become embedded into wage and price contracts.</p><p>&#34;Moving in these 75-basis-point steps was effective when the Fed had a long way to go. It becomes more problematic when they need to calibrate policy more carefully, and I believe we&#39;re approaching that point,&#34; said Brian Sack, who ran the New York Fed&#39;s markets desk from 2009 to 2012 and is now the director of economics at hedge-fund manager D.E. Shaw.</p><p>Some Fed critics say the current surge in inflation is the result of global disruptions rather than an overheated U.S. labor market, and they are pointing to signs that prices have begun to fall for a swath of goods and services, including commodities, freight shipping, and housing.</p><p>Housing costs have contributed notably to inflation in recent months amid large increases over the past year in residential rents. But housing demand is falling sharply as the 30-year mortgage rate nears 7%, a 16-year high -- a direct result of the Fed&#39;s rate increases. Home prices started to fall this summer in more U.S. markets, and economists at Goldman Sachs expect price drops of between 5% and 10% nationally by the end of next year. Apartment rent increases also have begun to slow.</p><p>Asset prices have also taken a beating,  which tends to reduce spending and investment.  A portfolio invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds is down nearly 20% this year.</p><p>&#34;The housing market doesn&#39;t look pretty, and that will eventually spread to the rest of the economy,&#34; said Mr. Mankiw. Lower asset prices will, too, at some point, he said.</p><p>Fed officials are cautious about expecting inflation to fall because it has consistently defied such forecasts over the past year. Some have pointed to risks of additional economic disruptions -- for example, higher energy prices this winter if Russia suspends oil sales.</p><p>The strong U.S. labor market is fueling several officials&#39; concerns by making it easy for workers to switch jobs in pursuit of higher pay, putting upward pressures on wages. That could especially be the case if consumer spending keeps shifting away from goods toward more labor-intensive services.</p><p>Eric Rosengren, who headed the Boston Fed from 2007 until last year, said he sees the Fed&#39;s projected policy path as broadly appropriate. &#34;If anything, I think the risks show they&#39;re going to have to raise rates a bit more than they&#39;re suggesting,&#34; he said. &#34;The U.S. economy, to date, looks more resilient than I might have expected given the rate increases that have already occurred.&#34;</p><p>Traditionally, the Fed set policy based on forecasts of inflation, which lags behind changes in output. But officials now are reacting more to the latest inflation data &#34;because they have absolutely zero confidence in their ability to forecast inflation,&#34; said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citigroup. He said he is concerned the Fed will overdo rate rises but concedes inflation in the service sector is &#34;pretty concerning.&#34;</p><p>One risk is that economic activity slows sharply but filters through to inflation measures with a longer-than-usual delay. Wholesale prices of used cars have been dropping in recent months, for example, but this hasn&#39;t shown up broadly in price indexes yet. Housing prices and residential rents are calculated in a way that is particularly lagged.</p><p>Mr. Sheets said waiting for proof that inflation is declining before slowing rate rises means monetary policy could be &#34;held hostage by something you know with high confidence is going to reverse in the coming months.&#34;</p><p>New York Fed President John Williams said last week he expects falling commodity prices and easing bottlenecks to bring inflation to 3% by the end of next year, leaving it still too far above the Fed&#39;s 2% goal.</p><p>Government policy makers focused heavily last year on avoiding the mistakes they thought were made after the 2008 downturn. Some said it would be easier to bring down inflation that overshot the Fed&#39;s 2% target than to lift inflation from below that level.</p><p>Now, officials have signaled they are willing to err on the side of raising rates too much because they don&#39;t want to repeat the mistakes of the early 1970s, when consumers and businesses began to anticipate high inflation, causing prices to keep rising. The Fed ultimately raised interest rates high enough to trigger a severe recession in the early 1980s to bring down prices and break that psychology.</p><p>&#34;There is a record of failed attempts to get inflation under control, which only raises the ultimate costs to society of getting it under control,&#34; Mr. Powell said last month.</p><p>Fed officials have spent considerable time studying the 1970s &#34;and will avoid making those mistakes,&#34; said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG. &#34;But it opens the door to a whole host of new mistakes.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Sack said he sees meaningful risks from both too much and too little tightening. &#34;It&#39;s not a completely one-sided story,&#34; he said. &#34;There are also risks from financial markets reacting in an abrupt way to higher rates, or from the slowdown in activity building on itself and becoming harder to control.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-09 09:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Some economists fear the Federal Reserve -- humbled after waiting too long to withdraw its support of a booming economy last year -- is risking another blunder by potentially raising interest rates too much to combat high inflation.</p><p>The Fed has lifted rates by 0.75 percentage point at each of its past three meetings, bringing its benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 3% and 3.25% last month -- the fastest pace of increases since the 1980s. Officials have indicated they could make a fourth increase of 0.75 point at their Nov. 1-2 meeting and raise the rate above 4.5% early next year.</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank isn&#39;t trying to cause a recession, but it can&#39;t fail in its effort to bring down inflation. &#34;I wish there was a painless way to do that. There isn&#39;t,&#34; he said last month.</p><p>Still, several analysts worry the Fed is on track to raise rates higher than required, potentially triggering a deeper-than-necessary downturn.</p><p>&#34;They&#39;ve done a tremendous amount of tightening,&#34; said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University economist who advised President George W. Bush. &#34;Recessions are painful for a lot of people. I think Powell&#39;s right that some pain is probably inevitable...but you don&#39;t want to cause more than is necessary.&#34;</p><p>Until June, officials hadn&#39;t lifted rates by 0.75 point, or 75 basis points, since 1994. Instead, they usually preferred making smaller quarter-point increases that gave them more time to see their economic effects.</p><p>&#34;I would slowly ease the foot off the brake,&#34; Mr. Mankiw said. &#34;That means probably for a given meeting, if they&#39;re debating 50 or 75, go with 50 instead of 75.&#34;</p><p>Former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn agrees it is near time for Fed officials to slow their rate increases. &#34;They need to downshift soon. They need to somehow downshift without backing off,&#34; he said.</p><p>Fed officials left rates near zero last year as they focused on spurring a strong labor market recovery. The war in Ukraine this spring sent commodity prices higher and fueled concerns that inflation might become embedded into wage and price contracts.</p><p>&#34;Moving in these 75-basis-point steps was effective when the Fed had a long way to go. It becomes more problematic when they need to calibrate policy more carefully, and I believe we&#39;re approaching that point,&#34; said Brian Sack, who ran the New York Fed&#39;s markets desk from 2009 to 2012 and is now the director of economics at hedge-fund manager D.E. Shaw.</p><p>Some Fed critics say the current surge in inflation is the result of global disruptions rather than an overheated U.S. labor market, and they are pointing to signs that prices have begun to fall for a swath of goods and services, including commodities, freight shipping, and housing.</p><p>Housing costs have contributed notably to inflation in recent months amid large increases over the past year in residential rents. But housing demand is falling sharply as the 30-year mortgage rate nears 7%, a 16-year high -- a direct result of the Fed&#39;s rate increases. Home prices started to fall this summer in more U.S. markets, and economists at Goldman Sachs expect price drops of between 5% and 10% nationally by the end of next year. Apartment rent increases also have begun to slow.</p><p>Asset prices have also taken a beating,  which tends to reduce spending and investment.  A portfolio invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds is down nearly 20% this year.</p><p>&#34;The housing market doesn&#39;t look pretty, and that will eventually spread to the rest of the economy,&#34; said Mr. Mankiw. Lower asset prices will, too, at some point, he said.</p><p>Fed officials are cautious about expecting inflation to fall because it has consistently defied such forecasts over the past year. Some have pointed to risks of additional economic disruptions -- for example, higher energy prices this winter if Russia suspends oil sales.</p><p>The strong U.S. labor market is fueling several officials&#39; concerns by making it easy for workers to switch jobs in pursuit of higher pay, putting upward pressures on wages. That could especially be the case if consumer spending keeps shifting away from goods toward more labor-intensive services.</p><p>Eric Rosengren, who headed the Boston Fed from 2007 until last year, said he sees the Fed&#39;s projected policy path as broadly appropriate. &#34;If anything, I think the risks show they&#39;re going to have to raise rates a bit more than they&#39;re suggesting,&#34; he said. &#34;The U.S. economy, to date, looks more resilient than I might have expected given the rate increases that have already occurred.&#34;</p><p>Traditionally, the Fed set policy based on forecasts of inflation, which lags behind changes in output. But officials now are reacting more to the latest inflation data &#34;because they have absolutely zero confidence in their ability to forecast inflation,&#34; said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citigroup. He said he is concerned the Fed will overdo rate rises but concedes inflation in the service sector is &#34;pretty concerning.&#34;</p><p>One risk is that economic activity slows sharply but filters through to inflation measures with a longer-than-usual delay. Wholesale prices of used cars have been dropping in recent months, for example, but this hasn&#39;t shown up broadly in price indexes yet. Housing prices and residential rents are calculated in a way that is particularly lagged.</p><p>Mr. Sheets said waiting for proof that inflation is declining before slowing rate rises means monetary policy could be &#34;held hostage by something you know with high confidence is going to reverse in the coming months.&#34;</p><p>New York Fed President John Williams said last week he expects falling commodity prices and easing bottlenecks to bring inflation to 3% by the end of next year, leaving it still too far above the Fed&#39;s 2% goal.</p><p>Government policy makers focused heavily last year on avoiding the mistakes they thought were made after the 2008 downturn. Some said it would be easier to bring down inflation that overshot the Fed&#39;s 2% target than to lift inflation from below that level.</p><p>Now, officials have signaled they are willing to err on the side of raising rates too much because they don&#39;t want to repeat the mistakes of the early 1970s, when consumers and businesses began to anticipate high inflation, causing prices to keep rising. The Fed ultimately raised interest rates high enough to trigger a severe recession in the early 1980s to bring down prices and break that psychology.</p><p>&#34;There is a record of failed attempts to get inflation under control, which only raises the ultimate costs to society of getting it under control,&#34; Mr. Powell said last month.</p><p>Fed officials have spent considerable time studying the 1970s &#34;and will avoid making those mistakes,&#34; said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG. &#34;But it opens the door to a whole host of new mistakes.&#34;</p><p>Mr. Sack said he sees meaningful risks from both too much and too little tightening. &#34;It&#39;s not a completely one-sided story,&#34; he said. &#34;There are also risks from financial markets reacting in an abrupt way to higher rates, or from the slowdown in activity building on itself and becoming harder to control.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273343388","content_text":"Some economists fear the Federal Reserve -- humbled after waiting too long to withdraw its support of a booming economy last year -- is risking another blunder by potentially raising interest rates too much to combat high inflation.The Fed has lifted rates by 0.75 percentage point at each of its past three meetings, bringing its benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 3% and 3.25% last month -- the fastest pace of increases since the 1980s. Officials have indicated they could make a fourth increase of 0.75 point at their Nov. 1-2 meeting and raise the rate above 4.5% early next year.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank isn't trying to cause a recession, but it can't fail in its effort to bring down inflation. \"I wish there was a painless way to do that. There isn't,\" he said last month.Still, several analysts worry the Fed is on track to raise rates higher than required, potentially triggering a deeper-than-necessary downturn.\"They've done a tremendous amount of tightening,\" said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University economist who advised President George W. Bush. \"Recessions are painful for a lot of people. I think Powell's right that some pain is probably inevitable...but you don't want to cause more than is necessary.\"Until June, officials hadn't lifted rates by 0.75 point, or 75 basis points, since 1994. Instead, they usually preferred making smaller quarter-point increases that gave them more time to see their economic effects.\"I would slowly ease the foot off the brake,\" Mr. Mankiw said. \"That means probably for a given meeting, if they're debating 50 or 75, go with 50 instead of 75.\"Former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn agrees it is near time for Fed officials to slow their rate increases. \"They need to downshift soon. They need to somehow downshift without backing off,\" he said.Fed officials left rates near zero last year as they focused on spurring a strong labor market recovery. The war in Ukraine this spring sent commodity prices higher and fueled concerns that inflation might become embedded into wage and price contracts.\"Moving in these 75-basis-point steps was effective when the Fed had a long way to go. It becomes more problematic when they need to calibrate policy more carefully, and I believe we're approaching that point,\" said Brian Sack, who ran the New York Fed's markets desk from 2009 to 2012 and is now the director of economics at hedge-fund manager D.E. Shaw.Some Fed critics say the current surge in inflation is the result of global disruptions rather than an overheated U.S. labor market, and they are pointing to signs that prices have begun to fall for a swath of goods and services, including commodities, freight shipping, and housing.Housing costs have contributed notably to inflation in recent months amid large increases over the past year in residential rents. But housing demand is falling sharply as the 30-year mortgage rate nears 7%, a 16-year high -- a direct result of the Fed's rate increases. Home prices started to fall this summer in more U.S. markets, and economists at Goldman Sachs expect price drops of between 5% and 10% nationally by the end of next year. Apartment rent increases also have begun to slow.Asset prices have also taken a beating,  which tends to reduce spending and investment.  A portfolio invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds is down nearly 20% this year.\"The housing market doesn't look pretty, and that will eventually spread to the rest of the economy,\" said Mr. Mankiw. Lower asset prices will, too, at some point, he said.Fed officials are cautious about expecting inflation to fall because it has consistently defied such forecasts over the past year. Some have pointed to risks of additional economic disruptions -- for example, higher energy prices this winter if Russia suspends oil sales.The strong U.S. labor market is fueling several officials' concerns by making it easy for workers to switch jobs in pursuit of higher pay, putting upward pressures on wages. That could especially be the case if consumer spending keeps shifting away from goods toward more labor-intensive services.Eric Rosengren, who headed the Boston Fed from 2007 until last year, said he sees the Fed's projected policy path as broadly appropriate. \"If anything, I think the risks show they're going to have to raise rates a bit more than they're suggesting,\" he said. \"The U.S. economy, to date, looks more resilient than I might have expected given the rate increases that have already occurred.\"Traditionally, the Fed set policy based on forecasts of inflation, which lags behind changes in output. But officials now are reacting more to the latest inflation data \"because they have absolutely zero confidence in their ability to forecast inflation,\" said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citigroup. He said he is concerned the Fed will overdo rate rises but concedes inflation in the service sector is \"pretty concerning.\"One risk is that economic activity slows sharply but filters through to inflation measures with a longer-than-usual delay. Wholesale prices of used cars have been dropping in recent months, for example, but this hasn't shown up broadly in price indexes yet. Housing prices and residential rents are calculated in a way that is particularly lagged.Mr. Sheets said waiting for proof that inflation is declining before slowing rate rises means monetary policy could be \"held hostage by something you know with high confidence is going to reverse in the coming months.\"New York Fed President John Williams said last week he expects falling commodity prices and easing bottlenecks to bring inflation to 3% by the end of next year, leaving it still too far above the Fed's 2% goal.Government policy makers focused heavily last year on avoiding the mistakes they thought were made after the 2008 downturn. Some said it would be easier to bring down inflation that overshot the Fed's 2% target than to lift inflation from below that level.Now, officials have signaled they are willing to err on the side of raising rates too much because they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the early 1970s, when consumers and businesses began to anticipate high inflation, causing prices to keep rising. The Fed ultimately raised interest rates high enough to trigger a severe recession in the early 1980s to bring down prices and break that psychology.\"There is a record of failed attempts to get inflation under control, which only raises the ultimate costs to society of getting it under control,\" Mr. Powell said last month.Fed officials have spent considerable time studying the 1970s \"and will avoid making those mistakes,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG. \"But it opens the door to a whole host of new mistakes.\"Mr. Sack said he sees meaningful risks from both too much and too little tightening. \"It's not a completely one-sided story,\" he said. \"There are also risks from financial markets reacting in an abrupt way to higher rates, or from the slowdown in activity building on itself and becoming harder to control.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}